Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3580
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3560", "results": [ { "id": 13726, "title": "Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?", "short_title": "Wales scores against England in 11/29 match", "url_title": "Wales scores against England in 11/29 match", "slug": "wales-scores-against-england-in-1129-match", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-25T21:31:56.051530Z", "published_at": "2022-11-25T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.420056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-25T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T21:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T21:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-25T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13726, "title": "Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?", "created_at": "2022-11-25T21:31:56.051530Z", "open_time": "2022-11-25T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-26T06:03:49.802282Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-26T06:03:49.802282Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T21:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T21:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-29T21:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-29T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Football, now the world's game, was probably [well established in Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_football) long before the first unambiguous written reference, a [1314 decree in Norman French](https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/the-year-football-was-banned-in-london-25610/) by the Mayor of London, combatting \"*graunt noise ... en la Cite, par ascunes rageries de grosses **pelotes de pee** ferir en prees du poeple, dount plusours maux par cas purrount avenir, qe Dieu defend*.\" One of the earliest probable references comes in the *Historia Brittonum* of the Welsh monk Nennius in the 9th century, contemporary with the Viking Era and the Abbasid invention of algebra, to [boys playing at football in \"in the field of Ælecti in the district of Glevesing\"](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Six_Old_English_Chronicles/Nennius%27s_History_of_the_Britons#1:41), probably modern Gloucestershire.\n\nModern Welsh football and the Welsh national squad date to 1876, when [the Welsh Football Association](https://www.faw.cymru/en/) formed to [answer a public challenge issued by Scotland's national team.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_Scotland_v_Wales_football_match) In the 146 years since, the Welsh national team has struggled to compensate for Wales' tiny population and limited talent base by [mobilizing Welsh fanaticism for the game.](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bold-plans-put-football-right-24166315) Their high point was [the glorious World Cup tournament of 1958,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Sweden_1958) where the Welsh squad dispatched Mexico, Sweden, and Hungary to ascend to a quarter-final match against Brazil, who defeated them 1–0 with the help of [a freakishly talented 17-year-old unknown named Pelé](https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/world-cup-icons-17-year-old-pele-makes-brazils-own-psychologist-look-silly-1958). Wales would be absent from World Cup competition for the next sixty-four years.\n\nThis drought, the longest in World Cup history, ended on June 5th, 2022, when [Wales defeated Ukraine](https://www.espn.com/soccer/report/_/gameId/633467) to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup tournament in Qatar. The accomplishment was called [\"once-in-a-lifetime\" and \"a glorious, hysterical occasion.\"](https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2022/jun/08/wales-ukraine-world-cup-qualification-elis-james) Videos of [*Yma o Hyd,*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llkwpwdk2ro) the Welsh nationalist protest song come football anthem, and of Welsh actor Michael Sheen's [eve-of-battle speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fpV0OFC0vc) by the same name attained online view counts exceeding the country's entire population size of some three million.\n\nBut if anything could tamp this mania, it was [Wales' 0–2 loss early Friday morning against Iran.](https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/633806) To survive in the tournament, the Welsh squad now will now need not only [a confluence of unlikely upsets in the other teams' matches,](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-11469211/World-Cup-permutations-needs-Englands-group-qualify-Wales-2-0-loss-Iran.html) but to itself outright defeat the English squad, their greatest historical rival, in the game upcoming on Tuesday, November 29th. Such a result was deemed by [the bookies](https://www.bettingodds.com/football/world-cup/wales-vs-england) and [the base rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_football_matches_between_British_national_teams#Wales) alike as some 80–90% unlikely. The viral videos became those of [dejected Wales supporters cursing out TV reporters](https://twitter.com/MahyarTousi/status/1596123174915444738) who asked for comment.\n\nWrote Welsh national superfan Paul Abbandonato,\n\n> [Wales somehow have to summon up](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/wales-need-greatest-result-146-25602939) ... the greatest win in [our] 146-year history if the dream we've so cherished for six decades isn't to just fizzle out almost before we've had a chance to really enjoy it properly. \n\nIn admiration for Wales' pluckiness and sympathy for the Welsh plight, we ask not whether they will escape elimination altogether, or even just be victorious on Tuesday, but simply whether they will earn one further moment of glory in this 2022 run.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** at the time of the first goal the Welsh national football team scores against England in [their World Cup group stage match in Qatar on Tuesday, November 29th](https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/633820), if any. It will resolve **No** if the game terminates with Wales having scored no goals", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13726, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669745689.005903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669745689.005903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5707216291716172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005715929431113761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4775044192925832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6759876943099562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07586728829032954, 0.08056048149199234, 0.4139349489548404, 0.0, 0.11608931509631863, 0.004697335090360764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403927405576332, 0.9241703931437649, 0.43116655507130464, 1.8987785010333775, 0.0, 0.024506299234394353, 1.8544572455129753, 1.2454644153919077, 0.09700195938329419, 0.0, 0.8656308775388277, 0.019501452486500002, 0.0, 0.721130685405309, 1.054406579249851, 0.0, 0.5462193639207771, 0.11737429406888561, 0.0, 0.24484609769994412, 0.16361328140823625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.384967995967945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0332697060725728 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9536630452693189, "coverage": 0.9932855512523079, "baseline_score": -8.206607363888915, "spot_peer_score": 10.57838177806206, "peer_archived_score": 1.9536630452693189, "baseline_archived_score": -8.206607363888915, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.57838177806206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669745689.022611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669745689.022611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.48242154616164545, 0.5175784538383545 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Football, now the world's game, was probably [well established in Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_football) long before the first unambiguous written reference, a [1314 decree in Norman French](https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/the-year-football-was-banned-in-london-25610/) by the Mayor of London, combatting \"*graunt noise ... en la Cite, par ascunes rageries de grosses **pelotes de pee** ferir en prees du poeple, dount plusours maux par cas purrount avenir, qe Dieu defend*.\" One of the earliest probable references comes in the *Historia Brittonum* of the Welsh monk Nennius in the 9th century, contemporary with the Viking Era and the Abbasid invention of algebra, to [boys playing at football in \"in the field of Ælecti in the district of Glevesing\"](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Six_Old_English_Chronicles/Nennius%27s_History_of_the_Britons#1:41), probably modern Gloucestershire.\n\nModern Welsh football and the Welsh national squad date to 1876, when [the Welsh Football Association](https://www.faw.cymru/en/) formed to [answer a public challenge issued by Scotland's national team.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1876_Scotland_v_Wales_football_match) In the 146 years since, the Welsh national team has struggled to compensate for Wales' tiny population and limited talent base by [mobilizing Welsh fanaticism for the game.](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/bold-plans-put-football-right-24166315) Their high point was [the glorious World Cup tournament of 1958,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wales_at_the_FIFA_World_Cup#Sweden_1958) where the Welsh squad dispatched Mexico, Sweden, and Hungary to ascend to a quarter-final match against Brazil, who defeated them 1–0 with the help of [a freakishly talented 17-year-old unknown named Pelé](https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/world-cup-icons-17-year-old-pele-makes-brazils-own-psychologist-look-silly-1958). Wales would be absent from World Cup competition for the next sixty-four years.\n\nThis drought, the longest in World Cup history, ended on June 5th, 2022, when [Wales defeated Ukraine](https://www.espn.com/soccer/report/_/gameId/633467) to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup tournament in Qatar. The accomplishment was called [\"once-in-a-lifetime\" and \"a glorious, hysterical occasion.\"](https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2022/jun/08/wales-ukraine-world-cup-qualification-elis-james) Videos of [*Yma o Hyd,*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llkwpwdk2ro) the Welsh nationalist protest song come football anthem, and of Welsh actor Michael Sheen's [eve-of-battle speech](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fpV0OFC0vc) by the same name attained online view counts exceeding the country's entire population size of some three million.\n\nBut if anything could tamp this mania, it was [Wales' 0–2 loss early Friday morning against Iran.](https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/633806) To survive in the tournament, the Welsh squad now will now need not only [a confluence of unlikely upsets in the other teams' matches,](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-11469211/World-Cup-permutations-needs-Englands-group-qualify-Wales-2-0-loss-Iran.html) but to itself outright defeat the English squad, their greatest historical rival, in the game upcoming on Tuesday, November 29th. Such a result was deemed by [the bookies](https://www.bettingodds.com/football/world-cup/wales-vs-england) and [the base rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_football_matches_between_British_national_teams#Wales) alike as some 80–90% unlikely. The viral videos became those of [dejected Wales supporters cursing out TV reporters](https://twitter.com/MahyarTousi/status/1596123174915444738) who asked for comment.\n\nWrote Welsh national superfan Paul Abbandonato,\n\n> [Wales somehow have to summon up](https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/wales-need-greatest-result-146-25602939) ... the greatest win in [our] 146-year history if the dream we've so cherished for six decades isn't to just fizzle out almost before we've had a chance to really enjoy it properly. \n\nIn admiration for Wales' pluckiness and sympathy for the Welsh plight, we ask not whether they will escape elimination altogether, or even just be victorious on Tuesday, but simply whether they will earn one further moment of glory in this 2022 run." }, { "id": 13725, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by March 2023", "url_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by March 2023", "slug": "ukraine-controls-znpp-by-march-2023", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-25T14:11:52.325461Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.850419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13725, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-25T14:11:52.325461Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-18T23:07:16.120824Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-18T23:07:16.120824Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. In recent months, there have been multiple shelling incidents at the site, with both sides blaming the other for the shelling and the risk of a resulting nuclear incident.\n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'yes' if credible media outlets report that Ukrainian forces are in physical control over the ZNPP, on or before February 28, 2023, and maintain that control for at least seven consecutive days. Otherwise, the question will resolve as 'no.' If control is maintained for seven consecutive days, the question will resolve as \"yes,\" regardless of whether control changes again after that date.\n\nThe presence, or invitation, of IAEA personnel, UN observers or peacekeepers, Russian military or civilian personnel, or any other parties, or the striking of any deals between Russia and Ukraine, will not be sufficient to resolve as 'yes', unless Ukraine is reported to be in physical control of the site on or before the expiry date.\n\nThe international status, operational status, or any accidents or incidents at the ZNPP, do not by themselves affect the resolution outcome", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677656515.251707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677656515.251707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.006742829867868269 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.925426135161045, 6.362357072016279, 0.08229155746506048, 0.035483869760008224, 0.0, 0.029620423747888012, 0.0, 0.003330345293805979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032318065314589283, 0.011644850398709309, 0.0023262033641672413, 0.0, 0.010719896772114901, 0.0013691017488028083, 0.016042248341988405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005946760795094198, 0.003215339816942008, 0.0003077680909476925, 0.05049811260377196, 0.0, 0.002704902973075728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004495665650659707, 0.0, 0.0027285100184344076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.223009628617758e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963417582025637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02522299621292586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001092971552096456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.40112357650171, "coverage": 0.999516899863237, "baseline_score": 80.70462012105591, "spot_peer_score": 17.45636236970322, "peer_archived_score": 10.40112357650171, "baseline_archived_score": 80.70462012105591, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.45636236970322 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677656515.273649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677656515.273649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 335, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. In recent months, there have been multiple shelling incidents at the site, with both sides blaming the other for the shelling and the risk of a resulting nuclear incident.\n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed." }, { "id": 13710, "title": "Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?", "short_title": "War Between Democracies Before 2072", "url_title": "War Between Democracies Before 2072", "slug": "war-between-democracies-before-2072", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-23T09:35:52.540601Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.918347Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13710, "title": "Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?", "created_at": "2022-11-23T09:35:52.540601Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2072-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13482/war-in-europe-by-2153/)\n\n---\n\nThe [Democratic Peace Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory) suggests that democratic countries are unlikely to go to war with other democracies. Proponents of the Democratic Peace Theory argue that it has been a key factor in preventing wars from breaking out in parts of the world that have a high concentration of democracies, such as Europe and North America. Opponents argue that numerous [wars between democracies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_between_democracies) have occurred in the past, and that issues defining which conflicts can be considered wars and which nations can be considered democracies undermine the validity of this theory, among numerous alternative explanations for it.\n\nSince 2006 the *Economist Intelligence Unit* (EIU) has published the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index), which scores and categorizes regimes according to their assessment of their measure of democracy. As of December 2022 the latest release is the [Democracy Index 2021](https://www.eiu.com/n/democracy-index-2021-less-than-half-the-world-lives-in-a-democracy/) published on February 10, 2022. The 2021 edition rates 167 countries, noting that micro states were excluded.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if two or more nations being ranked as \"Full\" or \"Flawed\" democracies by *The Economist*'s [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) engage in a war with each other before January 1, 2072. The most recent Democracy Index publication at the time of the war's outbreak will be used for the purpose of resolving this question. Should this index stop being published at some point prior to this question's resolution, Metaculus may choose an appropriate replacement or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"engage in a war\" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:\n\n- One democratic nation formally declares war on another democratic nation, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation\n\n- A clear consensus of international authorities indicates that a state of active warfare exists between those two nations\n\n- An armed conflict occurs between two or more democratic states in which at least 1,000 nationals of all democratic belligerents, or 0.005% (1 out of 20,000) of the *de facto* pre-war population of any one democratic belligerent, are confirmed to have been killed directly by armed combat within a 1 year (365 day) period\n\nIn the event that such a conflict begins less than 1 year prior to this question's resolution date, deaths occurring after the specified resolution date will not be considered.", "fine_print": "* In the event that one democratic nation states that it is at war with another as a joke or stunt, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine whether that statement describes a *de facto* declaration of war by one country on another. \n\n* Accidental or unauthorized use of weapons or military force during peacetime will not count towards the resolution of this question. Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if this applies.\n\n* States not rated by the Democracy Index or any replacement source do not qualify for resolution, regardless of whether they are generally considered to be democracies.", "post_id": 13710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756339475.114955, "end_time": 1760029083.263109, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756339475.114955, "end_time": 1760029083.263109, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6002485329023021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05572052714551742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04514248511907354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31843229548924823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6375225916282348, 0.0, 0.3442888766108792, 0.0, 0.37165693381966924, 0.529689169189869, 0.0, 0.04059264133585082, 0.0, 0.08023668698929762, 1.394620779238605, 0.0, 0.014145727934610995, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1944494136894477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0508399770169767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5212472552187034, 2.338358765011148, 0.0, 0.11428635374062596, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03189908928968541, 0.0, 0.5241446822882714, 0.006737946999085467, 0.02334530670111975, 0.10482768695740607, 0.8271656314925541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9548016369197619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038854741463503957, 0.0, 0.6586197332838046, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.4868057477542032, 0.7269814975890735, 0.06801670332795559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6262755711667753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19647265392413438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287863.418528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287863.418528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.606170838117788, 0.39382916188221195 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13482/war-in-europe-by-2153/)\n\n---\n\nThe [Democratic Peace Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory) suggests that democratic countries are unlikely to go to war with other democracies. Proponents of the Democratic Peace Theory argue that it has been a key factor in preventing wars from breaking out in parts of the world that have a high concentration of democracies, such as Europe and North America. Opponents argue that numerous [wars between democracies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_between_democracies) have occurred in the past, and that issues defining which conflicts can be considered wars and which nations can be considered democracies undermine the validity of this theory, among numerous alternative explanations for it.\n\nSince 2006 the *Economist Intelligence Unit* (EIU) has published the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index), which scores and categorizes regimes according to their assessment of their measure of democracy. As of December 2022 the latest release is the [Democracy Index 2021](https://www.eiu.com/n/democracy-index-2021-less-than-half-the-world-lives-in-a-democracy/) published on February 10, 2022. The 2021 edition rates 167 countries, noting that micro states were excluded." }, { "id": 13702, "title": "Will German bishops break from the Catholic Church before 2035?", "short_title": "German Bishop Schism", "url_title": "German Bishop Schism", "slug": "german-bishop-schism", "author_id": 100559, "author_username": "DanielFilan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-22T03:49:05.660506Z", "published_at": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.329462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13702, "title": "Will German bishops break from the Catholic Church before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-11-22T03:49:05.660506Z", "open_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-02T13:07:03.454318Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-02T13:07:03.454318Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synodal_Path) describes the Synodal Path, or _Synodale Weg_ in German, as\n> a series of conferences of the Catholic Church in Germany to discuss a range of contemporary theological and organizational questions concerning the Catholic Church, as well as possible reactions to the sexual abuse crisis in the Catholic Church in Germany. \n\nThe conferences are attended by German bishops, as well as members of the Central Committee of German Catholics, and various other representatives of parts of the Catholic Church in Germany. They have gained notoriety for endorsing propositions contrary to the teaching of the Catholic Church, such as (quoting from Wikipedia):\n\n1. Women's ordination should be allowed by the Vatican.\n2. Homosexual partnerships/unions should get a public blessing ceremony, and\n3. The Roman Catholic catechism's teachings on sexual ethics should be reformed. Homosexual sexual acts within same-sex unions/partnerships should be theologically accepted and not classified as a sinful behaviour.\n\n***German bishops break from Catholic Church before 2035?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if at some point before January 1, 2035, multiple Catholic bishops of German dioceses are part of a church that is distinct from the Catholic Church. One way of confirming this would be if either these bishops or the Pope say that these bishops' church is no longer in [full communion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_communion) with Rome. If neither party makes such a declaration, Metaculus will assess whether they are de facto separated and will determine appropriate resolution, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the situation is unclear.\n\n[fine-print]\n* Catholic bishops are considered to be those who have been ordained into the Catholic Church and were considered to be in [full communion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_communion) with the Catholic Church.\n* Multiple Catholic bishops must split off into one distinct church to quality, multiple bishops splitting into separate churches would not qualify.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758103953.696159, "end_time": 1760267773.879409, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758103953.696159, "end_time": 1760267773.879409, "forecaster_count": 19, 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null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Philip Edward \"Brave\" Davis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Davis_(Bahamian_politician)) KC MP, born 7 June 1951, is a Bahamian lawyer and politician serving as the Prime Minister of the Bahamas since September 17 2021. His Progressive Liberal Party won [the 2021 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Bahamian_general_election) in a landslide. \n\nIn November 2022, Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States and its founder and CEO, former billionaire [Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), resigned amid [allegations of incompetence, severe corporate governance failures,](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ftx-ceo-shreds-bankman-fried-never-seen-such-a-failure-of-controls-.html) and [possible criminal activity.](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/17/bahamian-ftx-liquidators-cite-serious-fraud-and-mismanagement-in-court-filings/)\n\nDavis had [opened FTX's offices in the Bahamas](https://thenassauguardian.com/pm-officially-opens-ftx-office-invites-more-fintech-firms-to-bahamas/) a year prior, and had [spoken at FTX's Crypto Bahamas Conference](https://youtu.be/2iYXXLH8yu0?t=345) in May 2022.\n\nOn November 21, 2022, Bahamian news source Our News Bahamas published an article entitled [\"PM Denies Involvement with FTX\"](https://ournews.bs/pm-denies-involvement-with-ftx/) (later deleted, no archive available):\n\n>NASSAU, BAHAMAS – Prime Minister Philip Davis has denied knowing of promises from FTX to build boutique hotels and other investments in The Bahamas.\n\nLater that day, it published a second article: [PM Denies Receiving FTX Contributions](https://ournews.bs/pm-denies-receiving-ftx-contributions/):\n\n>NASSAU, BAHAMAS – The prime minister seeking to clear the air about claims that members of the PLP received any gifts or contributions from FTX. He’s also calling the flack in the international press unfair.\n\n>Prime Minister Philip Davis shooting down claims that the PLP received donations from FTX.\n\n>The prime minister also insisting he has no interest in FTX.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, Philip Davis ceases to be the Prime Minister of the Bahamas, and does not resume holding that role within 168 hours (seven full days) of ceasing to be Prime Minister", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704066567.546897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704066567.546897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.16041790627263985 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6441852938714756, 1.4153365161607088, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.46168826455363954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.5630684152766057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.45230708713752654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.266749475882204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12778442179298646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.767253728581824, "coverage": 0.9999946227053309, "baseline_score": 18.5761209093392, "spot_peer_score": 1.2441213144407148, "peer_archived_score": 6.767253728581824, "baseline_archived_score": 18.5761209093392, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2441213144407148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704066567.57444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704066567.57444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974199806952775, 0.002580019304722547 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Philip Edward \"Brave\" Davis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Davis_(Bahamian_politician)) KC MP, born 7 June 1951, is a Bahamian lawyer and politician serving as the Prime Minister of the Bahamas since September 17 2021. His Progressive Liberal Party won [the 2021 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Bahamian_general_election) in a landslide. \n\nIn November 2022, Bahamas-based cryptocurrency exchange [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States and its founder and CEO, former billionaire [Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), resigned amid [allegations of incompetence, severe corporate governance failures,](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ftx-ceo-shreds-bankman-fried-never-seen-such-a-failure-of-controls-.html) and [possible criminal activity.](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/17/bahamian-ftx-liquidators-cite-serious-fraud-and-mismanagement-in-court-filings/)\n\nDavis had [opened FTX's offices in the Bahamas](https://thenassauguardian.com/pm-officially-opens-ftx-office-invites-more-fintech-firms-to-bahamas/) a year prior, and had [spoken at FTX's Crypto Bahamas Conference](https://youtu.be/2iYXXLH8yu0?t=345) in May 2022.\n\nOn November 21, 2022, Bahamian news source Our News Bahamas published an article entitled [\"PM Denies Involvement with FTX\"](https://ournews.bs/pm-denies-involvement-with-ftx/) (later deleted, no archive available):\n\n>NASSAU, BAHAMAS – Prime Minister Philip Davis has denied knowing of promises from FTX to build boutique hotels and other investments in The Bahamas.\n\nLater that day, it published a second article: [PM Denies Receiving FTX Contributions](https://ournews.bs/pm-denies-receiving-ftx-contributions/):\n\n>NASSAU, BAHAMAS – The prime minister seeking to clear the air about claims that members of the PLP received any gifts or contributions from FTX. He’s also calling the flack in the international press unfair.\n\n>Prime Minister Philip Davis shooting down claims that the PLP received donations from FTX.\n\n>The prime minister also insisting he has no interest in FTX." }, { "id": 13695, "title": "Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?", "short_title": "OPEC to Raise Forecast for 2023 Oil Demand", "url_title": "OPEC to Raise Forecast for 2023 Oil Demand", "slug": "opec-to-raise-forecast-for-2023-oil-demand", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-21T18:25:13.787807Z", "published_at": "2022-12-17T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.922196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-17T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T02:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T02:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-17T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13695, "title": "Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?", "created_at": "2022-11-21T18:25:13.787807Z", "open_time": "2022-12-17T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T02:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-18T02:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-18T02:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-17T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-17T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC) (OPEC) accounts for [approximately 1/3](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/oil-opec-energy-price/#:~:text=OPEC%20produces%20about%2040%25%20of,60%25%20of%20global%20petroleum%20trade.) of the world's oil production. It bases its production decisions, at least in part, on expected global oil demand. Therefore, its expectation of global oil demand can affect OPEC's oil production level, and thus global energy prices.\n\nIn its December 2022 [*Monthly Oil Market Report*](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm), OPEC forecast global consumption of oil in 2023 to be 101.77 MMbpd. This was slightly lower than the forecast issued the previous month, which was 101.82 MMbpd (i.e., a reduction in expected global consumption by 0.05%).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the forecast for world oil demand in 2023, as of OPEC's [*Monthly Oil Market Report*](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm) published in January of 2023, is greater than 101.77. If the forecast is equal to or less than 101.77, then the question resolves **No**.\n\nOPEC's *Monthly Oil Market Report*, including previous issues, can be found in PDF and Excel formats [here](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm).\n\nOPEC is scheduled to release its January report on January 17, 2023. The relevant section of the PDF is Section 10: \"Balance of supply and demand in 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673908267.570118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673908267.570118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.534339884982019 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.5590348738897781, 2.797594686418805, 0.8068642182372134, 1.541410922341463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6082551002884056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14550815060579478, 0.0, 1.5648024744626867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1659530935376474, "coverage": 0.9755581083722192, "baseline_score": -1.0962329380832994, "spot_peer_score": -20.117834062341934, "peer_archived_score": 2.1659530935376474, "baseline_archived_score": -1.0962329380832994, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.117834062341934 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673908267.592778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673908267.592778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5865366597866359, 0.41346334021336406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC) (OPEC) accounts for [approximately 1/3](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/oil-opec-energy-price/#:~:text=OPEC%20produces%20about%2040%25%20of,60%25%20of%20global%20petroleum%20trade.) of the world's oil production. It bases its production decisions, at least in part, on expected global oil demand. Therefore, its expectation of global oil demand can affect OPEC's oil production level, and thus global energy prices.\n\nIn its December 2022 [*Monthly Oil Market Report*](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm), OPEC forecast global consumption of oil in 2023 to be 101.77 MMbpd. This was slightly lower than the forecast issued the previous month, which was 101.82 MMbpd (i.e., a reduction in expected global consumption by 0.05%)." }, { "id": 13672, "title": "Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?", "short_title": "Cryonic resuscitation before 2100", "url_title": "Cryonic resuscitation before 2100", "slug": "cryonic-resuscitation-before-2100", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-20T05:13:11.783089Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T18:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:35:35.992623Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T18:08:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T18:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 255, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13672, "title": "Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?", "created_at": "2022-11-20T05:13:11.783089Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T18:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T18:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T18:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cryonics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryonics) is a method of bodily preservation in which human remains are frozen (typically at temperatures hundreds of degrees below 0 Celsius) with the hope that improved technology will allow for that individual to be resuscitated in the future. Debate exists over the practicality of such resuscitation, and many scientific experts believe it to be impossible. Nonetheless, around 250 bodies are cryopreserved in the US as of 2014, and about 1500 people have arranged to have their bodies cryonically frozen after their death.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution for this question will be based on credible news reports of a cryonically frozen body being resuscitated through technological means. To eliminate technicalities, this person must have been both [pronounced dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_death) AND cryonically frozen at least 72 hours before their resuscitation. Resuscitation of an individual who was cryonically frozen for less than 72 hours, or not pronounced dead for that same length of time, will not be sufficient to resolve this question. \n\n\"Resuscitation\" will be defined as an individual having ALL of the following vital functions restored:\n\n- Heartbeat\n- Breathing\n- Blood flow\n- Neural activity\n\nAlternatively, a legal declaration of a person meeting the criteria in the first paragraph having been brought back to life will be sufficient to resolve this question, in the event of such an achievement being done through neural uploading or other non-biological means. Metaculus admins will use their discretion to determine if such a legal declaration legitimately describes an individual being *de facto* brought back to life, rather than being a purely legal action.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13672, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758494125.745762, "end_time": 1783062669.602, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758494125.745762, "end_time": 1783062669.602, "forecaster_count": 251, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.15862869726618448 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1628282998772876, 3.446794080864805, 1.2975000747960381, 0.17910363846573465, 2.5227884395852285, 4.216141125193613, 1.2762561044452934, 1.7471046063868032, 1.162036929535408, 0.151324097982004, 1.2046432195122938, 0.0, 0.43110877794144414, 0.12687951481455106, 0.0012332293469903798, 0.01712217159254481, 0.014048412345478056, 0.08596136785017897, 0.36476646269549573, 0.4665913243646109, 1.5938569950035335, 0.06616235535009155, 0.002369632150544738, 0.0006376645838440297, 0.2563487476099969, 0.7693213803062854, 0.06787869392175275, 0.002251440212834426, 0.17811664072869315, 0.0, 0.28694635461016327, 0.019710491334552674, 0.4030791793686994, 0.0, 0.11123760763376889, 0.08124618262440966, 0.0, 0.009872448735897717, 0.17971633503539744, 0.0, 0.019035714162129812, 0.0, 0.002138565925357821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14740691791494462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009346765349076138, 1.2432295613662405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7270174336354281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028186532605523527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06960073080035603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01127505149799327, 0.7778153305907605, 0.0, 0.004091273104101155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1958690188724928, 0.0003044472181220444, 0.060532509730483706, 6.786558369973052e-05, 0.0, 0.37647950254841334, 0.025655598342058595, 0.5252369568291435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010090887251243965, 0.0, 0.0006762310350823626, 0.0010760827352932698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001736043618405996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781789137632021 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287321.546247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287321.546247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8934491679433028, 0.10655083205669728 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 578, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cryonics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryonics) is a method of bodily preservation in which human remains are frozen (typically at temperatures hundreds of degrees below 0 Celsius) with the hope that improved technology will allow for that individual to be resuscitated in the future. Debate exists over the practicality of such resuscitation, and many scientific experts believe it to be impossible. Nonetheless, around 250 bodies are cryopreserved in the US as of 2014, and about 1500 people have arranged to have their bodies cryonically frozen after their death." }, { "id": 13661, "title": "Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?", "short_title": "Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions winner", "url_title": "Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions winner", "slug": "buffalo-bills-vs-detroit-lions-winner", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-18T20:16:42.495634Z", "published_at": "2022-11-18T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.961306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-18T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-18T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13661, "title": "Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?", "created_at": "2022-11-18T20:16:42.495634Z", "open_time": "2022-11-18T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-19T09:06:22.386565Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-19T09:06:22.386565Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-24T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-24T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Buffalo Bills will play the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving day.\n\n***Will the Buffalo Bills win their football game on Thanksgiving?***\n\nIf the Bills win on Thanksgiving, this question resolves yes. You can see their [past matchups](https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/detroit-lions/teamvsteam?opp=4). Since 1972, the Bills lead the Lions 6-4-1.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13661, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669303605.676269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669303605.676269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7649185421886504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07889090770323962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 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"range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, [the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-explosions-heard-ukraines-capital-smoke-rising-over-city-2022-11-15/) with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure. Heavy damage was reported to electrical power and other systems across Ukraine, including in Lviv in the far west where 80% of households were said to be without electricity. Ukrainian air defense was active with its own missiles in response, claiming to have downed [around 70 out of around 90 missiles fired.](https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-ukraines-air-defense-downs-70-russian-missiles)\n\nDuring these strikes and counterfires, one or more projectiles crossed over the Ukrainian-Polish border, flew several kilometers further, and [struck a farm in the village of Przewodów, killing two Poles.](https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/) Some early reports assumed the missile was part of the strike launched by Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [was quick to echo this and call for further Western action.](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-15/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-in-significant-escalation-of-conflict) The Russian Defense Ministry [denied all responsibility](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-defence-ministry-denies-russian-missiles-struck-polish-territory-2022-11-15/), stating that \"no strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction\" and attributions of Russian responsibility were \"a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.\"\n\nOver the following hours, [it became clear](https://www.ft.com/content/5dd657b6-f5f2-4de9-aa75-a7e86605f9e7) that Przewodów had been struck by an air defense missile fired from Ukraine during its attempts to intercept the Russian strikes. Consultations continued among Poland, NATO, and world leaders. Poland, the United States, and NATO Secretary-General Jans Stoltenberg [all asserted that Russia nevertheless bore ultimate responsibility for the incident,](https://www.wsj.com/articles/missile-that-hit-poland-likely-launched-by-ukraine-in-air-defense-western-officials-say-11668589786) and several American officials [condemned the Russian strikes on Ukraine as war crimes against civilian infrastructure.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)\n\nAs of 2PM on November 16th, 2022, there were no reports that Ukraine had officially acknowledged that its missile had struck Przewodów.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by midnight local time on January 1st, 2024, the Polish state has published formal inter-state diplomatic correspondence in which it affirms, or Andrzej Duda or his successor has made an announced official statement which affirms, that Poland has no outstanding unsettled claims or disputes with Ukraine arising from the Przewodów incident which require state-level action. Claims arising from the incident which have been referred via a legal process or mutual diplomatic agreement to a court, arbitration body, or committee to decide their final disposition do not count as requiring further state-level action.\n\nThis question will resolve **No** if this does not happen", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055270.481468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055270.481468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01732709605654255 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.795472437748967, 8.866600495704791, 0.04678195401930797, 0.1073881054056872, 0.1471492619526828, 0.0969410552161642, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1612834782280713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02759496933622408, 0.017210119101531127, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025227666062928603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.008689560138641658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00828235027170996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.0, 0.004110801375029257, 0.004442640210629016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003650949509915334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055270.511257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055270.511257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, [the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-explosions-heard-ukraines-capital-smoke-rising-over-city-2022-11-15/) with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure. Heavy damage was reported to electrical power and other systems across Ukraine, including in Lviv in the far west where 80% of households were said to be without electricity. Ukrainian air defense was active with its own missiles in response, claiming to have downed [around 70 out of around 90 missiles fired.](https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-ukraines-air-defense-downs-70-russian-missiles)\n\nDuring these strikes and counterfires, one or more projectiles crossed over the Ukrainian-Polish border, flew several kilometers further, and [struck a farm in the village of Przewodów, killing two Poles.](https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/) Some early reports assumed the missile was part of the strike launched by Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [was quick to echo this and call for further Western action.](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-15/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-in-significant-escalation-of-conflict) The Russian Defense Ministry [denied all responsibility](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-defence-ministry-denies-russian-missiles-struck-polish-territory-2022-11-15/), stating that \"no strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction\" and attributions of Russian responsibility were \"a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.\"\n\nOver the following hours, [it became clear](https://www.ft.com/content/5dd657b6-f5f2-4de9-aa75-a7e86605f9e7) that Przewodów had been struck by an air defense missile fired from Ukraine during its attempts to intercept the Russian strikes. Consultations continued among Poland, NATO, and world leaders. Poland, the United States, and NATO Secretary-General Jans Stoltenberg [all asserted that Russia nevertheless bore ultimate responsibility for the incident,](https://www.wsj.com/articles/missile-that-hit-poland-likely-launched-by-ukraine-in-air-defense-western-officials-say-11668589786) and several American officials [condemned the Russian strikes on Ukraine as war crimes against civilian infrastructure.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)\n\nAs of 2PM on November 16th, 2022, there were no reports that Ukraine had officially acknowledged that its missile had struck Przewodów." }, { "id": 13637, "title": "Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine acknowledges striking Poland by 2023", "url_title": "Ukraine acknowledges striking Poland by 2023", "slug": "ukraine-acknowledges-striking-poland-by-2023", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-16T19:01:42.533251Z", "published_at": "2022-11-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.448957Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13637, "title": "Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-16T19:01:42.533251Z", "open_time": "2022-11-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-17T03:10:40.159768Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-17T03:10:40.159768Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, [the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-explosions-heard-ukraines-capital-smoke-rising-over-city-2022-11-15/) with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure. Heavy damage was reported to electrical power and other systems across Ukraine, including in Lviv in the far west where 80% of households were said to be without electricity. Ukrainian air defense was active with its own missiles in response, claiming to have downed [around 70 out of around 90 missiles fired.](https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-ukraines-air-defense-downs-70-russian-missiles)\n\nDuring these strikes and counterfires, one or more projectiles crossed over the Ukrainian-Polish border, flew several kilometers further, and [struck a farm in the village of Przewodów, killing two Poles.](https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/) Some early reports assumed the missile was part of the strike launched by Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [was quick to echo this and call for further Western action.](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-15/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-in-significant-escalation-of-conflict) The Russian Defense Ministry [denied all responsibility](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-defence-ministry-denies-russian-missiles-struck-polish-territory-2022-11-15/), stating that \"no strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction\" and attributions of Russian responsibility were \"a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.\"\n\nOver the following hours, [it became clear](https://www.ft.com/content/5dd657b6-f5f2-4de9-aa75-a7e86605f9e7) that Przewodów had been struck by an air defense missile fired from Ukraine during its attempts to intercept the Russian strikes. Consultations continued among Poland, NATO, and world leaders. Poland, the United States, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg [all asserted that Russia nevertheless bore ultimate responsibility for the incident,](https://www.wsj.com/articles/missile-that-hit-poland-likely-launched-by-ukraine-in-air-defense-western-officials-say-11668589786) and several American officials [condemned the Russian strikes on Ukraine as war crimes against civilian infrastructure.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)\n\nAs of 2PM on November 16th, 2022, there were no reports that Ukraine had officially acknowledged that its missile had struck Przewodów.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by midnight local time on January 1st, 2023, formal inter-state diplomatic correspondence, or an announced official statement by Volodymyr Zelenskyy or his successor, affirms that Przewodów was struck on November 15th by at least one missile fired from Ukraine by the Ukrainian armed forces. It will resolve as **No** if this does not happen", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13637, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672517920.718414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672517920.718414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038916366952704694 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.953901342600341, 0.5565779501502324, 2.09551858042631, 0.8006847611930231, 0.9046929782728808, 0.041900231805098435, 0.0, 0.04730246698645611, 0.0, 0.12203998215567173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07555818145441323, 0.0, 0.018145231805054875, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.0391391957249288, 0.06240422608603305, 0.1051294259207532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02486471846864117, 0.07234433464389084, 0.0, 0.00887455477665474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6196158224841438, 0.0, 0.3357912308601219, 0.033577238429726874, 0.01030128423534859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1496086116082252, 0.0, 0.05132741717574528, 0.014122635138187924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03580908965816463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005615367448597199, 0.0, 0.0001645879663998067, 0.0, 0.0043319525273556635, 0.0, 0.004711180847754763, 0.0017821371045040485, 0.002726223732076428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005239734014467784, 0.0, 3.1743686855278136e-05, 0.0, 0.0009128693858032663, 0.0033427467086007147, 0.0006856229144450329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014130777270173261, 0.0, 0.0007211156250063908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.62882871469968e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015666163036862494, 0.0, 0.0005390312736053173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036491754352390277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.703888581139722, "coverage": 0.9998724591191571, "baseline_score": 50.34955249413857, "spot_peer_score": 28.081746509439316, "peer_archived_score": 27.703888581139722, "baseline_archived_score": 50.34955249413857, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.081746509439316 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672517920.743362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672517920.743362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 338, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the dusk hours of November 15th, 2022, in the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, [the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/two-explosions-heard-ukraines-capital-smoke-rising-over-city-2022-11-15/) with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting infrastructure. Heavy damage was reported to electrical power and other systems across Ukraine, including in Lviv in the far west where 80% of households were said to be without electricity. Ukrainian air defense was active with its own missiles in response, claiming to have downed [around 70 out of around 90 missiles fired.](https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-ukraines-air-defense-downs-70-russian-missiles)\n\nDuring these strikes and counterfires, one or more projectiles crossed over the Ukrainian-Polish border, flew several kilometers further, and [struck a farm in the village of Przewodów, killing two Poles.](https://remiza.com.pl/wybuch-w-przewodowie/) Some early reports assumed the missile was part of the strike launched by Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [was quick to echo this and call for further Western action.](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-15/ukraines-zelenskiy-says-russian-missiles-hit-poland-in-significant-escalation-of-conflict) The Russian Defense Ministry [denied all responsibility](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-defence-ministry-denies-russian-missiles-struck-polish-territory-2022-11-15/), stating that \"no strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction\" and attributions of Russian responsibility were \"a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation.\"\n\nOver the following hours, [it became clear](https://www.ft.com/content/5dd657b6-f5f2-4de9-aa75-a7e86605f9e7) that Przewodów had been struck by an air defense missile fired from Ukraine during its attempts to intercept the Russian strikes. Consultations continued among Poland, NATO, and world leaders. Poland, the United States, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg [all asserted that Russia nevertheless bore ultimate responsibility for the incident,](https://www.wsj.com/articles/missile-that-hit-poland-likely-launched-by-ukraine-in-air-defense-western-officials-say-11668589786) and several American officials [condemned the Russian strikes on Ukraine as war crimes against civilian infrastructure.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html)\n\nAs of 2PM on November 16th, 2022, there were no reports that Ukraine had officially acknowledged that its missile had struck Przewodów." }, { "id": 13544, "title": "[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?", "short_title": "Russian Przewodów apology in November", "url_title": "Russian Przewodów apology in November", "slug": "russian-przewodow-apology-in-november", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-15T19:24:30.386309Z", "published_at": "2022-11-15T20:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.933983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-15T20:49:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-30T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 170, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13544, "title": "[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?", "created_at": "2022-11-15T19:24:30.386309Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-15T21:15:29.083300Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-15T21:15:29.083300Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question has been expedited in response to breaking news. Some information may change as the situation develops.*\n\nOn November 15th, 2022, the Russian Federation launched a large co-ordinated fire strike on Ukraine with long-range precision-guided missiles, apparently targeting electrical infrastructure. As of around 8pm Polish time (2pm EST), Polish media and United States official sources [were reporting](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/zelenskyy-battle-kherson-day-watershed-93318926) that at least one missile crossed over the Ukrainian-Polish border and struck an agricultural facility in Przewodów a few thousand metres further inside. Reportedly, two people were killed. The Polish government was said to be convening an emergency meeting of its cabinet committee on national security and defense.\n\n***Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia makes a formal diplomatic statement assuming Russian responsibility for the Przewodów strike and apologizing, before December 1st, 2022, Polish time. Otherwise it will resolve as **No.**\n\nApologizing will include expressions of generalized sorrow or regret, as long as they are accompanied by an assumption of responsibility and do not attempt to attribute responsibility to non-Russian parties, such as by alleging the missiles were deliberately hacked or spoofed by Ukraine or NATO.\n\nMetaculus admins will resolve according to their best considered judgement and the reports of [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), and may resolve as **Ambiguous** in the event of conflicting or unclear language within or between statements. However, official state-to-state diplomatic correspondence and announced, authorized high official statements on behalf of the Russian state are the focus, not incidental remarks or the actions of lower-level officials or of Russian-state-affiliated commentators and propagandists.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669808119.071074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 170, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669808119.071074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 170, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029092055006352997 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.47836805976761, 1.3653058681357986, 0.03625191111485307, 0.07516056432335916, 0.03824719608770723, 1.2294555905977476e-05, 0.0, 0.0001285233689187512, 0.0002821488950170284, 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"weeklong-twitter-outage-before-2024", "author_id": 111868, "author_username": "gwillen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-15T01:33:50.011008Z", "published_at": "2022-11-19T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.784562Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-19T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13540, "title": "Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-11-15T01:33:50.011008Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-20T09:30:24.022693Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-20T09:30:24.022693Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "####*See also:*\n* #### *[>60 minute Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n* #### *[>6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n\n----\n\n[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is a technology company founder and business executive whose net worth, depending on the fortunes of the stock market, has often ranked him as the world’s wealthiest person. He first made a fortune as a member of “[the Paypal Mafia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia)”; today his companies include Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, OpenAI, and The Boring Company.\n\n[Twitter](https://twitter.com/) is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. It has been perceived as both [an important catalyst for pro-democratic uprisings](https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2012/11/28/role-social-media-arab-uprisings/) and [a cesspool of misinformation and hate speech](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/opinion/elon-musk-twitter-free-speech-india.html), and has attracted [significant attention from regulators.](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/ed-markey-deep-dive-00069221)\n\nOn October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. As of November 2022, Musk's brief tenure as Twitter’s new head had been marked by massive layoffs, not only from such supporting roles as [diversity, equity, and inclusion,](https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/tech-layoffs-human-resources-diversity-dei-teams/) but [including significant numbers of engineers](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022:\n\n> In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.\n\nThat article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter. Separately, [top compliance officers resigned](https://twitter.com/caseynewton/status/1590724257608134657), suggesting potential troubles with the FTC.\n\nAs of November 18th, 2022, discussion of potential future Twitter outages or even the complete infrastructural collapse of Twitter was so widespread that [it triggered false alarms at Downdetector.com](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/tech/twitter-employee-exodus-fallout/index.html), whose system flagged the discussions as indicative of a real outage.\n\n***Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any continuous 168-hour period starting before 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if any 168-hour period elapses during which the majority of all Tweets that would normally be accessible to the public or to registered Twitter users are no longer so accessible at Twitter.com.\n\nIf Tweets are available intermittently, unreliably, or only with difficulty then the standard is as follows:\n\nMetaculus admins will review credible published sources reporting on the Twitter outage, to determine whether a clear preponderance of such sources report that old Tweets were mostly inacessible for at least a 168-hour period. If such a consensus exists then they will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nIf not, Metaculus admins will examine Twitter's own self-evaluation at https://api.twitterstat.us/, and in particular the reported status of the \"Standard endpoints,\" or whichever subsequent metric includes basic visibility of old tweets. If there is any 168-hour period during which \"Partial Outage,\" \"Major Outage,\" or \"Maintenance\" status are indicated, and during which \"Operational\" status is not indicated for any continual 60 minutes, then they will resolve this question as **Yes.**\n\nMetaculus admins will make a reasonable effort using their best considered judgement to resolve **Yes** or **No,** but because of the complex and diverse nature of possible outage scenarios and the lack of complete information, it is possible that **Ambiguous** resolution may be indicated.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074773.778626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074773.778626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 13538, "title": "Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 60 minutes before mid-2023?", "short_title": ">60 minute Twitter outage before mid-2023", "url_title": ">60 minute Twitter outage before mid-2023", "slug": "60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-14T15:25:16.122083Z", "published_at": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.027836Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 217, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13538, "title": "Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 60 minutes before mid-2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-14T15:25:16.122083Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-16T02:39:55.807862Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-16T02:39:55.807862Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "####*See also:*\n* #### *[>6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n* #### *[Weeklong Twitter outage before 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13540/twitter-weeklong-outage-by-2024/)*\n\n----\n\nTwitter is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. On October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. \n\nWhile Twitter has not experienced any prolonged outages since the buyout, on July 14th, 2022, the site [experienced](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/14/twitter-experiences-longest-global-outage-in-years) one of its longest outages for years. During that outage, the social network was completely unavailable to users around the globe on web and mobile for almost an hour. \n\nSince Musk’s buyout in October, massive layoffs have occurred across the company, [including the engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter.", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: new criteria adopted 18 January 2023:*\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1st, 2023, Twitter users are unable to post new tweets that are visible to others, or are unable to view previous tweets, continuously for a period of 60 minutes. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.\n\n####*Obsolete criteria below:*", "fine_print": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1st, 2023, the Twitter platform is continuously unavailable to users for more than 60 minutes, as reported by [Downdetector.com](https://downdetector.com/) or equivalently reliable sources for website reliability as determined by Metaculus admins. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.\n\nIn the event of a partial outage, Twitter will be considered \"continuously unavailable to users\" as long as at least 10 million Twitter users are reportedly affected, or the majority of Twitter users in territories with a population totaling at least 100 million.\n\nTwitter will be considered \"available\" in an area as long as most Twitter users there are able to both view new tweets in a feed as they are Tweeted *and* issue new Tweets that others can see, without excessive need to wait, retry, or otherwise evade service problems to do so.", "post_id": 13538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676956428.417078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676956428.417078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5123031415590773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.506362987325402, 0.0, 0.026242281894437298, 0.0, 0.21437920888223236, 0.0, 0.0001251049946387909, 0.0, 0.00032792818223446586, 0.0, 0.04585021910627817, 0.0, 0.0651593244632003, 0.0, 0.03367139025009867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45665122562990845, 0.0, 0.000987168131786743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654194998330662, 0.5955621919569248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4886381863066156, 0.0068457619072903, 0.0, 0.8846261601421299, 0.17906872255556225, 0.4891582790527349, 0.32375341401713614, 0.6715065376149801, 0.0, 0.1840560308478863, 1.4214561470434102, 0.08010922628794424, 0.0, 0.4761070995030784, 0.0, 0.9320283864253442, 0.05746508255100838, 0.0, 0.7602654975268329, 0.33634929449347556, 4.0895890162671105, 1.412446966409712, 0.7871777171887786, 0.00016151381734326724, 0.04834614079159895, 0.2648367543205708, 0.061392246992500704, 0.05321155022512701, 0.8430743869759143, 0.8879447165871401, 2.087028661070628, 0.0, 0.07878505314681089, 0.00527863951462263, 0.0, 0.5700883224301581, 1.646751003105668e-06, 2.262887161091653e-06, 0.38870949336035415, 0.006585476293542679, 1.3548674724755596, 0.4170649132194805, 0.009269329412702044, 0.0, 0.011851631735655437, 0.706687246611476, 0.0, 0.00010483157955612137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0070298433050579225, 0.012427771778980884, 0.0, 0.0016216745354569531, 3.914083871248954e-05, 1.2674983264358526, 0.007873135019173041, 0.8188465323041032, 0.7379208979770854, 0.0, 0.008154791782901748, 0.002900925527940861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1858518216777598e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013655452889917367 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676965320.600425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676965320.600425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6498813929648658, 0.3501186070351342 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 549, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "####*See also:*\n* #### *[>6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n* #### *[Weeklong Twitter outage before 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13540/twitter-weeklong-outage-by-2024/)*\n\n----\n\nTwitter is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. On October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. \n\nWhile Twitter has not experienced any prolonged outages since the buyout, on July 14th, 2022, the site [experienced](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/14/twitter-experiences-longest-global-outage-in-years) one of its longest outages for years. During that outage, the social network was completely unavailable to users around the globe on web and mobile for almost an hour. \n\nSince Musk’s buyout in October, massive layoffs have occurred across the company, [including the engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter." }, { "id": 13531, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?", "short_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?", "url_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?", "slug": "crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2024", "author_id": 126423, "author_username": "Eikonal", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-13T02:20:26.827133Z", "published_at": "2022-11-17T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.287003Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-17T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1013, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-17T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 862, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13531, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-11-13T02:20:26.827133Z", "open_time": "2022-11-17T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-18T11:16:01.474667Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-18T11:16:01.474667Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, 00:00 [EET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_European_Time).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043124.587527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 862, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043124.587527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 862, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01017698740487277 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.364130784630667, 24.80780129533563, 2.352901637356922, 1.065885063802513, 0.7779105754194084, 1.1486315580330284, 0.015289829032583364, 0.051464608539425305, 0.03047282640933106, 0.009920754346537374, 0.20063777251394915, 0.022955318881523298, 0.03048849706252345, 0.0020679237893238794, 1.2204682075918465e-05, 0.029424119985071554, 0.01723669605476808, 0.005240985966826605, 0.005345595519669871, 6.895492653453271e-05, 0.1365355605406425, 0.00032531142469176207, 0.0002981059806518582, 0.00010290698728431522, 0.044469942429280165, 0.006764822735933774, 0.0012736396917410976, 0.0015339879824659039, 0.02525739631825346, 0.0, 0.014314347232293727, 2.7661239338519707e-08, 0.001837595564585248, 0.013178952522577248, 2.40395901789267e-10, 9.194498743569663e-05, 0.01045279127293577, 1.722268618360759e-05, 0.0013634842324077865, 0.00016328640430509457, 0.0007032268524153117, 4.202170781240595e-06, 4.022865592458115e-05, 1.3309484031519098e-08, 1.1167380201188097e-07, 0.0004368238201079311, 2.1837093409076702e-05, 4.042077915263325e-06, 1.1537936610154929e-11, 5.080723946652509e-11, 0.0014152515076058438, 0.0008751342931105311, 3.542324582475632e-09, 1.1390059149711997e-05, 6.364938417310472e-05, 0.0004809182175164169, 4.450712080111953e-05, 2.6342526332782416e-11, 0.0, 3.0925810907625605e-06, 0.0007409372446720098, 0.0, 4.1333261018560976e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044900678735841046, 1.5199248969657416e-08, 7.627510948841453e-05, 0.002101707111963881, 0.002495685863250602, 0.005507723267001429, 2.1501640528195463e-08, 1.1908496026057614e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003282510275289684, 2.011080352311962e-06, 0.0, 1.9734716896498103e-08, 4.416516399353102e-05, 0.0033546586515940434, 0.0, 2.069412134959576e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.189740767844895e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4639951635069672e-05, 3.8464866222263595e-10, 0.0018864778676814648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004045117402781442 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.86445389936919, "coverage": 0.9997464730049995, "baseline_score": 56.773196640410625, "spot_peer_score": -2.217627283934314, "peer_archived_score": 28.86445389936919, "baseline_archived_score": 56.773196640410625, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.217627283934314 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043124.679001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 862, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043124.679001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 862, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 49, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3964, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination." }, { "id": 13527, "title": "Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?", "short_title": "DCCPA passes before 2025?", "url_title": "DCCPA passes before 2025?", "slug": "dccpa-passes-before-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-12T15:40:32.303406Z", "published_at": "2022-11-19T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.730131Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-19T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:47:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13527, "title": "Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-11-12T15:40:32.303406Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-21T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:48:07.115114Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2022, Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and John Boozman (R-AR) officially introduced the [Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4760/text) a bill aimed at providing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies within the context of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The draft of this bill has been [leaked on Twitter](https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1582814734587265024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582814734587265024%7Ctwgr%5E4a8506fcaf909a8b2ed867c4fcc7cac474f83c04%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdecrypt.co%2F112420%2Fcftc-dccpa-bill-leak-defi-regulation) in October 2022. \n\nAccording to [DLA Piper](https://www.dlapiper.com/en/us/insights/publications/2022/08/how-the-digital-commodities-consumer-protection-act-of-2022/), the central proposals of the DCCPA are:\n\n>Close regulatory gaps by requiring all digital commodity platforms (defined to mean a person that is one or more of the following: digital commodity broker, a digital commodity custodian, a digital commodity dealer, a digital commodity trading facility) to register with the CFTC\n\n>Require digital commodity platforms to prohibit abusive trading practices, eliminate or disclose conflicts of interest, maintain sufficient financial resources, have strong cybersecurity programs, protect customer assets and report suspicious transactions\n\n>Require digital commodity platforms to adhere to advertising standards and disclose information about digital commodities and their risks, bringing greater transparency and accountability to the marketplace\n\n>Authorize the CFTC to impose user fees on digital commodity platforms to fully fund its oversight of the digital commodity market\n\n>Direct the CFTC to examine racial, ethnic and gender demographics of customers participating in digital commodity markets and use that information to inform its rulemaking and provide outreach to customers and\n\n>Recognize that other financial agencies have a role in regulating digital assets that are not commodities, but function more like securities or forms of payment.\n\nThis proposed bill has been supported by several figures in the cryptocurrency industry, such as [Brian Armstrong](https://decrypt.co/111106/coinbase-very-supportive-cftc-bitcoin-ethereum) (Coinbase) and [Sam Bankman-Fried](https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1582539579168419840?s=46&t=MIxvyFx75JEnEUfMnNt-Fw) (formerly of FTX). There has been [some discussion](https://decrypt.co/112420/cftc-dccpa-bill-leak-defi-regulation) about the effects of this bill on what has come to be called 'decentralised finance' (or DeFi), with some worrying that it may massively restrict this sector of the cryptocurrency industry.\n\nFurther, given the [bankruptcy of FTX](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-for-bankruptcy.html) (and its associated businesses), Sam Bankman-Fried's lobbying in Washington in favour of the DCCPA has raised concerns. At the same time, the FTX crash has also increased calls for regulation more broadly. Recently, both senators Stavenow (D-MI) and Boozman (R-AR) have said that the collapse of FTX showed [\"the need for greater federal oversight of the digital asset industry\"](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-senators-commit-to-advancing-crypto-bill-despite-ftx-collapse). \n\nAs of November 2022, there has not been a clear schedule as to when the bill will be published for the US Senate to review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if DCCPA in its current or revised form is passed by the US Senate and the US House of Representatives before 2025.\n\nThe passage of a different bill aimed at regulating cryptocurrencies will not trigger resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13527, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734813712.186019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.312 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734813712.186019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.312 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.688, 0.312 ], "means": [ 0.28603464633509107 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6033638237972125, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4728594391423011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8621740336638177, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.6356799761664509, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20466334034107847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21054372880200137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09924529872745119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38806619235724815, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -66.93305211769675, "peer_score": 31.109373858011153, "coverage": 0.9995603797988684, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995603797988684, "spot_peer_score": 0.470468708946402, "spot_baseline_score": -68.96598793878492, "baseline_archived_score": -66.93305211769675, "peer_archived_score": 31.109373858011153, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.470468708946402, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -68.96598793878492 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289020.659417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289020.659417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8732599292493471, 0.12674007075065286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2022, Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and John Boozman (R-AR) officially introduced the [Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4760/text) a bill aimed at providing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies within the context of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The draft of this bill has been [leaked on Twitter](https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1582814734587265024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1582814734587265024%7Ctwgr%5E4a8506fcaf909a8b2ed867c4fcc7cac474f83c04%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdecrypt.co%2F112420%2Fcftc-dccpa-bill-leak-defi-regulation) in October 2022. \n\nAccording to [DLA Piper](https://www.dlapiper.com/en/us/insights/publications/2022/08/how-the-digital-commodities-consumer-protection-act-of-2022/), the central proposals of the DCCPA are:\n\n>Close regulatory gaps by requiring all digital commodity platforms (defined to mean a person that is one or more of the following: digital commodity broker, a digital commodity custodian, a digital commodity dealer, a digital commodity trading facility) to register with the CFTC\n\n>Require digital commodity platforms to prohibit abusive trading practices, eliminate or disclose conflicts of interest, maintain sufficient financial resources, have strong cybersecurity programs, protect customer assets and report suspicious transactions\n\n>Require digital commodity platforms to adhere to advertising standards and disclose information about digital commodities and their risks, bringing greater transparency and accountability to the marketplace\n\n>Authorize the CFTC to impose user fees on digital commodity platforms to fully fund its oversight of the digital commodity market\n\n>Direct the CFTC to examine racial, ethnic and gender demographics of customers participating in digital commodity markets and use that information to inform its rulemaking and provide outreach to customers and\n\n>Recognize that other financial agencies have a role in regulating digital assets that are not commodities, but function more like securities or forms of payment.\n\nThis proposed bill has been supported by several figures in the cryptocurrency industry, such as [Brian Armstrong](https://decrypt.co/111106/coinbase-very-supportive-cftc-bitcoin-ethereum) (Coinbase) and [Sam Bankman-Fried](https://twitter.com/sbf_ftx/status/1582539579168419840?s=46&t=MIxvyFx75JEnEUfMnNt-Fw) (formerly of FTX). There has been [some discussion](https://decrypt.co/112420/cftc-dccpa-bill-leak-defi-regulation) about the effects of this bill on what has come to be called 'decentralised finance' (or DeFi), with some worrying that it may massively restrict this sector of the cryptocurrency industry.\n\nFurther, given the [bankruptcy of FTX](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-for-bankruptcy.html) (and its associated businesses), Sam Bankman-Fried's lobbying in Washington in favour of the DCCPA has raised concerns. At the same time, the FTX crash has also increased calls for regulation more broadly. Recently, both senators Stavenow (D-MI) and Boozman (R-AR) have said that the collapse of FTX showed [\"the need for greater federal oversight of the digital asset industry\"](https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-senators-commit-to-advancing-crypto-bill-despite-ftx-collapse). \n\nAs of November 2022, there has not been a clear schedule as to when the bill will be published for the US Senate to review." }, { "id": 13525, "title": "By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?", "short_title": "Federal student debt pause extended pre-2023", "url_title": "Federal student debt pause extended pre-2023", "slug": "federal-student-debt-pause-extended-pre-2023", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-12T00:54:23.203748Z", "published_at": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.197410Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-22T20:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T20:36:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13525, "title": "By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?", "created_at": "2022-11-12T00:54:23.203748Z", "open_time": "2022-11-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-15T04:24:26.097639Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-15T04:24:26.097639Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T20:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-22T20:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-22T20:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 13, 2020, President Donald Trump [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/mnuchin-may-suspend-student-loan-repayments-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html) a moratorium on federal student loan payments amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Originally payments were set to resume in September 2020, but President Trump extended the freeze 3 additional times in his presidency. Since taking office, President Joe Biden has extended the payment freeze 4 more times. ([CNET: Student Loan Payments Now Paused Until 2023: Everything to Know About the Latest Extension](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/student-loan-payments-now-paused-until-2023-everything-to-know-about-the-latest-extension/))\n\nOn August 24, 2022, the White House [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) a final pause on federal student loan repayment through December 31, 2022, with borrowers expected to resume repayments in January 2023. As part of the same announcement, President Biden directed the Department of Education to provide up to $10,000 in debt cancellation to non-Pell Grant recipients and up to $20,000 to Pell Grant recipients.\n\nOn October 21, 2022, in the case of [Nebraska v. Biden](https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca8/22-3179), the Eighth Circuit US Court of Appeals issued a temporary order prohibiting the Department of Education from discharging any student debt under the cancellation program. On November 10, 2022, US District Judge Mark T. Pittman in Texas [struck down](https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/11/10/student-loan-forgiveness-texas-lawsuit/) the program. \n\nAccording to the US Department of Education, federal student loan payments are currently [set to resume](https://studentaid.gov/announcements-events/covid-19) after December 31, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2023, the executive branch announces an extension of the federal student loan payment moratorium beyond December 31, 2022. Otherwise it will resolve as **No.**\n\nIn rare cases this question might resolve as **Ambiguous** per the *Metaculus FAQ*:\n\n>An ambiguous resolution generally implies that there was some inherent ambiguity in the question, that real-world events subverted one of the assumptions of the question, or that there is not a clear consensus as to what in fact occurred.\n\nGenerally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not such an announcement has been made, based on credible media reporting. The Metaculus Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.\n\n***See also:***\n\n- [Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/)\n\n- [By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12326/student-debt-cancellation-blocked-by-2024/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669147089.191659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669147089.191659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6786434755712687 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5405144259613794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.20549066020331952, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.6525656508175627, 0.19586096398601704, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.26880538132087894, 0.6813134944700813, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.23605896372833224, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.5864460764807107, "coverage": 0.17153219697389419, "baseline_score": 6.700077478218746, "spot_peer_score": 22.580326251406515, "peer_archived_score": 2.5864460764807107, "baseline_archived_score": 6.700077478218746, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.580326251406515 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669147089.204651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669147089.204651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2839150440170979, 0.7160849559829021 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 13, 2020, President Donald Trump [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/mnuchin-may-suspend-student-loan-repayments-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html) a moratorium on federal student loan payments amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Originally payments were set to resume in September 2020, but President Trump extended the freeze 3 additional times in his presidency. Since taking office, President Joe Biden has extended the payment freeze 4 more times. ([CNET: Student Loan Payments Now Paused Until 2023: Everything to Know About the Latest Extension](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/loans/student-loan-payments-now-paused-until-2023-everything-to-know-about-the-latest-extension/))\n\nOn August 24, 2022, the White House [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) a final pause on federal student loan repayment through December 31, 2022, with borrowers expected to resume repayments in January 2023. As part of the same announcement, President Biden directed the Department of Education to provide up to $10,000 in debt cancellation to non-Pell Grant recipients and up to $20,000 to Pell Grant recipients.\n\nOn October 21, 2022, in the case of [Nebraska v. Biden](https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/ca8/22-3179), the Eighth Circuit US Court of Appeals issued a temporary order prohibiting the Department of Education from discharging any student debt under the cancellation program. On November 10, 2022, US District Judge Mark T. Pittman in Texas [struck down](https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/11/10/student-loan-forgiveness-texas-lawsuit/) the program. \n\nAccording to the US Department of Education, federal student loan payments are currently [set to resume](https://studentaid.gov/announcements-events/covid-19) after December 31, 2022." }, { "id": 13521, "title": "Will any remaining FTX depositor withdraw any amount of tradeable assets from FTX before 2023?", "short_title": "FTX depositor to retrieve funds before 2023", "url_title": "FTX depositor to retrieve funds before 2023", "slug": "ftx-depositor-to-retrieve-funds-before-2023", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-10T17:46:01.443636Z", "published_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.462445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13521, "title": "Will any remaining FTX depositor withdraw any amount of tradeable assets from FTX before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-10T17:46:01.443636Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-11T01:05:13.394701Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-11T01:05:13.394701Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency exchange, a platform for exchanging cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency derivatives, headquartered in the Bahamas and founded by American entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried. In July 2019, FTX listed for sale its \"exchange token\" FTT, described as \"the backbone of the FTX ecosystem.\"\n\n*Note: The FTX exchange is distinct from FTX.US, a US-based exchange with the same owners and its own balance sheet. This question asks about the Bahamas-based FTX exchange available to international users, not the US-based FTX.US.*\n\nOn November 6th, 2022, FTX [began to unravel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/10/why-is-crypto-crashing-the-ftx-saga-explained/); within days it had suspended withdrawals, been offered a distressed bailout deal by a competitor, and then seen the offer rescinded. Reportedly, SBF himself [lost 94% of his net worth and dropped out of the billionaires' club.](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/business/sam-bankman-fried-wealth-ftx-ctrp) \n\nAs of November 10th, 2022, visitors to FTX.com were greeted with a banner reading:\n\n> FTX is currently unable to process withdrawals. We strongly advise against depositing.\n\n> All onboarding of new clients has been suspended until further notice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if FTX settles even partially any of its obligations as a currency exchange towards at least one depositor, by furnishing some amount of some tradeable asset, before the start of the year 2023. Tradeable means readily exchangeable to United States dollars via some widely accessible financial institution, within a well-defined and narrow band of quotable prices. (That is, handing over the deed to a house, or a cryptocurrency token that was no longer tradeable on normal liquid markets, would not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671024904.792861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.6177400654817142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671024904.792861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.6177400654817142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38225993451828577, 0.6177400654817142 ], "means": [ 0.588671078783994 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.4087506853414205, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0839758874887769, 0.7549731054070336, 1.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1280225477466783, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.9292749801060917, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669862289.675995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669862289.675995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4178687261641916, 0.5821312738358084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency exchange, a platform for exchanging cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency derivatives, headquartered in the Bahamas and founded by American entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried. In July 2019, FTX listed for sale its \"exchange token\" FTT, described as \"the backbone of the FTX ecosystem.\"\n\n*Note: The FTX exchange is distinct from FTX.US, a US-based exchange with the same owners and its own balance sheet. This question asks about the Bahamas-based FTX exchange available to international users, not the US-based FTX.US.*\n\nOn November 6th, 2022, FTX [began to unravel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/10/why-is-crypto-crashing-the-ftx-saga-explained/); within days it had suspended withdrawals, been offered a distressed bailout deal by a competitor, and then seen the offer rescinded. Reportedly, SBF himself [lost 94% of his net worth and dropped out of the billionaires' club.](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/business/sam-bankman-fried-wealth-ftx-ctrp) \n\nAs of November 10th, 2022, visitors to FTX.com were greeted with a banner reading:\n\n> FTX is currently unable to process withdrawals. We strongly advise against depositing.\n\n> All onboarding of new clients has been suspended until further notice." }, { "id": 13519, "title": "Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?", "short_title": "FTX.US Default before 2023", "url_title": "FTX.US Default before 2023", "slug": "ftxus-default-before-2023", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-10T16:49:35.842269Z", "published_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.332249Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-27T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-27T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-13T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13519, "title": "Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?", "created_at": "2022-11-10T16:49:35.842269Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-11T12:25:42.900631Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-11T12:25:42.900631Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-27T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-13T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-27T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-13T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency exchange, a platform for exchanging cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency derivatives, headquartered in the Bahamas and founded by American entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried. FTX also operates [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/) is an affiliated US-based exchange. FTX.US products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. \n\nOn November 6th, 2022, FTX [began to unravel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/11/10/why-is-crypto-crashing-the-ftx-saga-explained/). Reportedly, SBF himself [lost 94% of his net worth and dropped out of the billionaires' club.](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/business/sam-bankman-fried-wealth-ftx-ctrp) However, as of November 10th, 2022, SBF stated that [\"this shitshow\" would have no financial impact on FTX.US, which remained \"100% liquid\".](https://mobile.twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1590709195892195329)\n\n***Before 2023, will FTX.US default or delay for more than 120 hours on payment to at least one FTX.US user?***\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if credible published reports indicate that FTX.US has defaulted, suspended payments, or otherwise failed to furnish assets in response to an FTX.US user's valid demand, and that this demand had still not been fulfilled at least 120 hours after being initially issued.\n\nIn determining resolution, Metaculus administrators will use their best considered judgement to interpret reports appearing in reliable published sources.\n\nAbsence of evidence will be considered evidence of absence; the question will resolve **No** if no such reports are found at resolution time. 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"id": 13518, "title": "Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the \"C\"s or worse before July 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-10T16:22:06.955519Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-20T10:19:12.474704Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-20T10:19:12.474704Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is a technology company founder and business executive whose net worth, depending on the fortunes of the stock market, has often ranked him as the world’s wealthiest person. He first made a fortune as a member of “[the Paypal Mafia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia)”; today his companies include Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, OpenAI, and The Boring Company.\n\n[Twitter](https://twitter.com/) is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. It has been perceived as both [an important catalyst for pro-democratic uprisings](https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2012/11/28/role-social-media-arab-uprisings/) and [a cesspool of misinformation and hate speech](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/opinion/elon-musk-twitter-free-speech-india.html), and has attracted [significant attention from regulators.](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/ed-markey-deep-dive-00069221)\n\nOn October 27, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. Soon after this deal closed, [credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Twitter’s corporate credit rating](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Twitters-CFR-and-unsecured-note-ratings-to-B1--PR_470869) two steps to B1 from Ba2, citing “governance risk” associated with Twitter’s new ownership. (See also [Moody’s rating scale and definitions.](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/productattachments/ap075378_1_1408_ki.pdf))\n\nAs of November 2022, Musks brief tenure as Twitter’s new head had been marked by massive layoffs, not only from such supporting roles as [diversity, equity, and inclusion,](https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/tech-layoffs-human-resources-diversity-dei-teams/) but [including significant numbers of engineers](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022:\n\n> In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.\n\nThat article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter. Separately, [top compliance officers resigned](https://twitter.com/caseynewton/status/1590724257608134657), suggesting potential troubles with the FTC.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time between November 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023 at least two of the Big Three credit reporting agencies (S&P, Moody's, and Fitch) assess Twitter's credit rating for senior, unsecured corporate bonds as *Caa1* grade or worse, indicating poor standing and very high credit risk. It will resolve as **No** if July 1, 2023 arrives without this having happened.", "fine_print": "As explained in [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13518/twitter-c-credit-rating-before-july-2023/#comment-109332) Twitter's rating has been withdrawn by two agencies. If ratings are still withdrawn as of July 1, 2023, this resolves **No**, if ratings are reinstated and above C it resolves **No**, if they're reinstated and C or below it resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 13518, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174761.617293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174761.617293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04642251325939475 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.7293711084562307, 7.8018779221011005, 0.0, 0.7659754446175084, 0.6878113878105488, 1.9543821656478995, 0.8656350969441491, 0.0, 0.34754267187491095, 0.043444640796242134, 0.8087017388433013, 0.0, 0.3543988660722158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09746231746313623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07306977718917719, 0.14159658829546293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38090073743558717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0634779910345077, 0.0, 0.03290960829886426, 0.0546862794654917, 0.0, 0.023704231271115716, 0.001983748139857539, 0.03409455406369352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003034421059397963, 0.0, 0.01533484769206626, 0.007836395920405472, 0.020598484689031187, 0.02451573508238106, 0.060566847403310975, 0.03299379523446706, 0.0, 0.0072308994864218054, 0.010679897806566082, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.0, 0.0014453669945896995, 0.0, 0.10442542226526633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007091908952343224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.012994363513026918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002298978468056262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000295991905056472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.047956318312508, "coverage": 0.9999901774995101, "baseline_score": 41.06609405443366, "spot_peer_score": 30.412685401890382, "peer_archived_score": 12.047956318312508, "baseline_archived_score": 41.06609405443366, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.412685401890382 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174761.656913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174761.656913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990910316244269, 0.0009089683755730392 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 309, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is a technology company founder and business executive whose net worth, depending on the fortunes of the stock market, has often ranked him as the world’s wealthiest person. He first made a fortune as a member of “[the Paypal Mafia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia)”; today his companies include Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, OpenAI, and The Boring Company.\n\n[Twitter](https://twitter.com/) is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. It has been perceived as both [an important catalyst for pro-democratic uprisings](https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2012/11/28/role-social-media-arab-uprisings/) and [a cesspool of misinformation and hate speech](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/opinion/elon-musk-twitter-free-speech-india.html), and has attracted [significant attention from regulators.](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/ed-markey-deep-dive-00069221)\n\nOn October 27, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. Soon after this deal closed, [credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Twitter’s corporate credit rating](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Twitters-CFR-and-unsecured-note-ratings-to-B1--PR_470869) two steps to B1 from Ba2, citing “governance risk” associated with Twitter’s new ownership. (See also [Moody’s rating scale and definitions.](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/productattachments/ap075378_1_1408_ki.pdf))\n\nAs of November 2022, Musks brief tenure as Twitter’s new head had been marked by massive layoffs, not only from such supporting roles as [diversity, equity, and inclusion,](https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/tech-layoffs-human-resources-diversity-dei-teams/) but [including significant numbers of engineers](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022:\n\n> In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.\n\nThat article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter. Separately, [top compliance officers resigned](https://twitter.com/caseynewton/status/1590724257608134657), suggesting potential troubles with the FTC." }, { "id": 13514, "title": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "short_title": "Coinbase files for bankruptcy before 2024", "url_title": "Coinbase files for bankruptcy before 2024", "slug": "coinbase-files-for-bankruptcy-before-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-10T00:39:34.445893Z", "published_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.467620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13514, "title": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-11-10T00:39:34.445893Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-11T05:12:24.447160Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-11T05:12:24.447160Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Coinbase Global, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase), branded Coinbase, is an American publicly-traded company incorporated in Delaware that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume.\n\nIn May 2022, amid a broad rout in the cryptocurrency markets, as [reported by Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/coinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event),\n\n>Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said there is “no risk of bankruptcy” for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, even amid a “black swan” event.\n\n>A filing late Tuesday by Coinbase included a “new risk factor” based on recent Securities and Exchange Commission requirement for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\n\n>“Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors,” Coinbase wrote in the filing.\n\nOn May 11 2022, CEO Brian Armstrong [tweeted](https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1524233602661109760), inter alia,\n\n>\"We have no risk of bankruptcy, however we included a new risk factor based on an SEC requirement called SAB 121, which is a newly required disclosure for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\"\n\nIn November 2022, amid the fallout from the [potential collapse of crypto exchange FTX](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/binance-backs-out-of-ftx-rescue-leaving-the-crypto-exchange-on-the-brink-of-collapse.html), the price of bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies fell significantly due to [fears about possible contagion and industry-wide consequences](https://www.ft.com/content/3dadaed2-f959-482e-8897-1a40803de5ae).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Coinbase Global Inc., or any parent company thereof, files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2024. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question will resolve as **No** if no such petition is filed by that date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074794.256599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074794.256599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028928957196941617 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.981078113001762, 7.371678111957839, 1.023127278359936, 0.9584625251563523, 0.317583065731844, 0.7479417827086785, 0.0, 0.0028647637365310807, 0.024737184262190848, 0.9201125096870623, 0.2874105594277821, 0.029139815099320256, 0.068763771344373, 0.14925278533997288, 0.0, 0.034646527239473424, 0.08796053765710685, 0.0, 0.04327244440848381, 0.3687283480861888, 0.0006359100333188915, 0.08066183099353968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15544057007425482, 0.0, 0.035823213687628884, 0.005935580593263443, 0.0, 0.029067400587847268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018054443197619355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02715998740117981, 0.0, 0.01505059801104587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012874290616542414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060623639087390144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.0428699122105725, "coverage": 0.9999614526797995, "baseline_score": 82.72038603071667, "spot_peer_score": 6.330516890120957, "peer_archived_score": 5.0428699122105725, "baseline_archived_score": 82.72038603071667, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.330516890120957 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074794.310759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074794.310759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 355, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Coinbase Global, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase), branded Coinbase, is an American publicly-traded company incorporated in Delaware that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume.\n\nIn May 2022, amid a broad rout in the cryptocurrency markets, as [reported by Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/coinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event),\n\n>Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said there is “no risk of bankruptcy” for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, even amid a “black swan” event.\n\n>A filing late Tuesday by Coinbase included a “new risk factor” based on recent Securities and Exchange Commission requirement for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\n\n>“Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors,” Coinbase wrote in the filing.\n\nOn May 11 2022, CEO Brian Armstrong [tweeted](https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1524233602661109760), inter alia,\n\n>\"We have no risk of bankruptcy, however we included a new risk factor based on an SEC requirement called SAB 121, which is a newly required disclosure for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\"\n\nIn November 2022, amid the fallout from the [potential collapse of crypto exchange FTX](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/binance-backs-out-of-ftx-rescue-leaving-the-crypto-exchange-on-the-brink-of-collapse.html), the price of bitcoin and various other cryptocurrencies fell significantly due to [fears about possible contagion and industry-wide consequences](https://www.ft.com/content/3dadaed2-f959-482e-8897-1a40803de5ae)." } ] }
