Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3580
{ "count": 6373, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3560", "results": [ { "id": 17763, "title": "Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?", "short_title": "Threads more users than Twitter before 2026?", "url_title": "Threads more users than Twitter before 2026?", "slug": "threads-more-users-than-twitter-before-2026", "author_id": 131795, "author_username": "jackrafferty", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T05:38:28.611524Z", "published_at": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:03:12.330209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17763, "title": "Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T05:38:28.611524Z", "open_time": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-24T22:42:05.858829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-24T22:42:05.858829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up, and after the first week, [100 million had](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/tech/threads-meta-growth-plan/index.html), though it is hard to estimate how many of those users will be \"monthly active\" until some months pass. Many of these users were able to sign up with just one or two clicks from Instagram. \n\nAs of December 2022, Twitter had [368M monthly active users](https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/), and many expect this to fall due to erratic leadership from Elon Musk. Meta's other properties, Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp, are all well over 1B MAUs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2025, Meta publicly reports Threads has a Monthly Active User number higher than the best public estimates of Twitter's MAUs at that time, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762877394.80428, "end_time": 1764464333.981, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762877394.80428, "end_time": 1764464333.981, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.047748151458461244 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.868675124981279, 1.5252675387452928, 1.0996664600491015, 0.03282480256284937, 0.8763740431221172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6062666629314708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5615043946067765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289653.622007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289653.622007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9979452982067505, 0.0020547017932495515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 356, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up, and after the first week, [100 million had](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/tech/threads-meta-growth-plan/index.html), though it is hard to estimate how many of those users will be \"monthly active\" until some months pass. Many of these users were able to sign up with just one or two clicks from Instagram. \n\nAs of December 2022, Twitter had [368M monthly active users](https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/), and many expect this to fall due to erratic leadership from Elon Musk. Meta's other properties, Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp, are all well over 1B MAUs." }, { "id": 17758, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of reducing antibiotic resistance in strains of pathogenic bacteria by 90% in a high-density fish pond be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "90% Less Fish Pond Antibiotic Resistance 2030", "url_title": "90% Less Fish Pond Antibiotic Resistance 2030", "slug": "90-less-fish-pond-antibiotic-resistance-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:45:20.083932Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.604423Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2475, "type": "question_series", "name": "Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aquaculture_FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T22:54:49Z", "close_date": "2023-12-29T23:54:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17758, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of reducing antibiotic resistance in strains of pathogenic bacteria by 90% in a high-density fish pond be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:45:20.083932Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Engineer the release of modified bacteria and their distribution in a high-density fish pond and successfully reduce antibiotic resistance across multiple pathogenic bacterial strains by 90%**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [reduce antibiotic resistance in aquaculture](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703696315.631483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703696315.631483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4417906401661275 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 2.230652956744052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8037019479933394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008156.836603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008156.836603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7330425265839715, 0.26695747341602843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance." }, { "id": 17752, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of a 90% reduction in antibiotic resistance of a pathogenic bacteria in a 300 gallon aquarium be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "90% Less Aquarium Antibiotic Resistance 2030?", "url_title": "90% Less Aquarium Antibiotic Resistance 2030?", "slug": "90-less-aquarium-antibiotic-resistance-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:13:53.393923Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.969924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:59:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "closed", 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"slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Demonstrate that this technology can be adapted to a single pathogenic bacterial strain in a 300 gallon aquarium and successfully reduce antibiotic resistance by 90%**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [reduce antibiotic resistance in aquaculture](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703640182.071746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703640182.071746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8702397199055429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0984825428050753, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008189.218496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008189.218496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10231566787459911, 0.8976843321254009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance." }, { "id": 17746, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?", "short_title": "2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "url_title": "2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "slug": "2100-co2-emissions-exceed-20-gigatonsyear", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117829, "username": "ramble" } ], "created_at": "2023-07-06T17:07:15.354841Z", "published_at": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.758776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17746, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?", "created_at": "2023-07-06T17:07:15.354841Z", "open_time": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-13T17:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-13T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2100 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738644548.420963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4608820081 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738644548.420963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4608820081 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.28511213621368436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.5701627105501564, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287144.166171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287144.166171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.975151351448043, 0.02484864855195696 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050." }, { "id": 17742, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before October 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before October 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100345, "username": "EvanHarper" }, { "id": 121041, "username": "norick" } ], "created_at": "2023-07-06T16:07:44.003329Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T19:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.888742Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17742, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-06T16:07:44.003329Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T19:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T19:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T19:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n\nOn February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [falling](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before [transferring the city](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65705733) to the Russian army.\n\nUkraine launched a [counter-offensive](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786) in June 2023, and fierce fighting [resumed near Bakhmut](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-struck-ukrainian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-07-05/).", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on September 30, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukranian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nForecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".", "fine_print": "If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.\n\nCredit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 17742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696104531.402833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696104531.402833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.0464705199986326 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.461484632450425, 9.740055658946822, 1.3797300489711848, 0.1136034775055989, 0.12516163112855144, 0.34064945098885924, 0.07597952771104494, 0.017798533158726003, 0.003081493780433812, 0.00801785567567934, 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337, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988900291124126, 0.0011099708875873062 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1742, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n\nOn February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [falling](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before [transferring the city](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65705733) to the Russian army.\n\nUkraine launched a [counter-offensive](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786) in June 2023, and fierce fighting [resumed near Bakhmut](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-struck-ukrainian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-07-05/)." }, { "id": 17728, "title": "Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?", "short_title": "OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?", "url_title": "OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?", "slug": "openai-solves-alignment-before-june-30-2027", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-05T22:47:30.562421Z", "published_at": "2023-07-05T23:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T12:07:22.320405Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-05T23:37:01.357762Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-05T23:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 216, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:57:13.018561Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:57:13.018561Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17728, "title": "Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-07-05T22:47:30.562421Z", "open_time": "2023-07-05T23:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-06T02:24:44.874969Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-06T02:24:44.874969Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 5, 2023, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. OpenAI said:\n\n> Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.\n\nThe core idea of OpenAI's approach is to \"build a roughly human-level [automated alignment researcher](https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research)\" and then to \"use vast amounts of computer to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a blog post, press release, or technical paper before June 30, 2027, declaring that they have met their goal from the [July 5 2023 post](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment), or otherwise stipulating \"very high confidence\" that they have solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment.", "fine_print": "OpenAI has [said](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment):\n> Solving the problem includes providing evidence and arguments that convince the machine learning and safety community that it has been solved. If we fail to have a very high level of confidence in our solutions, we hope our findings let us and the community plan appropriately.", "post_id": 17728, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763480491.941439, "end_time": 1763636265.257807, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763480491.941439, "end_time": 1763636265.257807, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.020584780698962107 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.694254320202797, 2.8833228558662425, 2.2770848866075313, 0.8283162229543257, 0.0, 0.1328881133861488, 0.0, 0.4083717328778249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.07857660688937786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011752428427110738, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5296608745347693, 0.027247947633350568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288342.378606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288342.378606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970729952245209, 0.0029270047754791605 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 5, 2023, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. 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"2023-07-09T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-09T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-09T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe. \n\nThe yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France), representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race. \n\n[Stage 9](https://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2023-route/stage-9-tdf-2023/) will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage ([on a volcano](https://www.letour.fr/en/heritage/stage-9/town/puy-de-dome)!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the cyclist who wins [stage 9](https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-9) of the 2023 Tour de France is also ranked first in the [General Individual Rankings](https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings) after stage 9.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688874045.797308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688874045.797308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3621667880821862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.011364900518339544, 0.04842515677234604, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24703615525397116, 1.074732645620085, 0.0, 0.38213595752647456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.4087506853414205, 0.5608812398816437, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8802753074680358, "coverage": 0.9999442183511595, "baseline_score": 44.41141683688777, "spot_peer_score": -1.4001162519888732, "peer_archived_score": 1.8802753074680358, "baseline_archived_score": 44.41141683688777, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4001162519888732 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688874045.814904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688874045.814904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.555030543197232, 0.44496945680276806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe. \n\nThe yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France), representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race. \n\n[Stage 9](https://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2023-route/stage-9-tdf-2023/) will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage ([on a volcano](https://www.letour.fr/en/heritage/stage-9/town/puy-de-dome)!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour." }, { "id": 17716, "title": "Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?", "short_title": "Cris Ericson VT Senator in 2024?", "url_title": "Cris Ericson VT Senator in 2024?", "slug": "cris-ericson-vt-senator-in-2024", "author_id": 149474, "author_username": "ru18vote", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-05T01:27:56.227570Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.992111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17716, "title": "Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?", "created_at": "2023-07-05T01:27:56.227570Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T00:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T00:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T18:10:03.234711Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.\n\nCris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Cris Ericson is declared the winner of the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont by the [Vermont Secretary of State](https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/election-info-resources/elections-results-data/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17716, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731083189.063215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731083189.063215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005653173502894246 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.323395671072003, 1.1402731167598346, 0.09956885969569651, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.03411561381977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.51484870449003, "peer_score": 2.125390312575831, "coverage": 0.9937584175339442, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997974119739219, "spot_peer_score": 1.8111348579169313, "baseline_archived_score": 97.51484870449003, "peer_archived_score": 2.125390312575831, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8111348579169313 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288927.334475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288927.334475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.\n\nCris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders." }, { "id": 17714, "title": "Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Norway vote on EU before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Norway vote on EU before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-norway-vote-on-eu-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 131821, "author_username": "Hamnøy_OPT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-04T17:44:23.150621Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T17:46:51.883781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17714, "title": "Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-04T17:44:23.150621Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T23:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T23:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-07T17:46:51.838334Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). However, it is associated with the Union through its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), signed in 1992 and established in 1994.\n\nThe Norwegians voted twice about EU membership. Once in 1972 and again in 1994. In the first case with 53,5% of the people against, in the second case 52,2% against.\n\nThe debate has gained some renewed interest in the public after Sweden and Finland decided to join the NATO. The political parties mostly support joining the Union, as they have done in the past, too. [Linked here](https://www.newsinenglish.no/2023/04/05/ex-premier-fires-up-norways-eu-debate/), for example, is a statement by the former prime minister, Erna Solberg.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as YES if the Norwegian government announces an official referendum on the issue of EU membership before the next parliamentary election date (some time in September 2025) via www.regjeringen.no or any other official communication channel, otherwise it resolves NO.", "fine_print": "The decisive date is the date the referendum is announced, regardless of when the referendum will actually be held.", "post_id": 17714, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756188240.064508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756188240.064508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06853382014209397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.382425624405823, 1.7549731054070334, 1.7425533762207404, 1.1846718994969416, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.7462504723962555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.19349714324532621, 0.0, 0.6906700652107194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09804450254408996, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.69418816345099, "peer_score": 13.073981822027033, "coverage": 0.9997640556581837, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997640556581837, "spot_peer_score": 18.110554363119842, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 65.69418816345099, "peer_archived_score": 13.073981822027033, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.110554363119842, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287478.324623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287478.324623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9488008203324264, 0.05119917966757359 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). 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Surovikin was [reportedly aware in advance](https://www.npr.org/2023/06/29/1185088717/russia-general-detained-ukraine-commander) of the uprising led by mercenary leader [Yevgeny Prigozhin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin) against top defense leaders. Following the uprising, Surovikin's name emerged in connection with the Wagner Group forces' seizure of Russia's southern regional military headquarters and their movement towards Moscow.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if there are official announcements, credible reports, or statements from authoritative sources—before July 12, 2023—confirming that General Sergei Surovikin is no longer the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces. 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Surovikin was [reportedly aware in advance](https://www.npr.org/2023/06/29/1185088717/russia-general-detained-ukraine-commander) of the uprising led by mercenary leader [Yevgeny Prigozhin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin) against top defense leaders. 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Survive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Survive) and has not seen a canonical main title since 2015's [Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_V:_The_Phantom_Pain), will eventually receive a sixth title.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a new game is released with the words 'Metal Gear Solid 6' in the title, or some variation of (such as Metal Gear Solid 5's choice of the Roman numeral for 5 in the title), before January 1, 2034.\n\nThe question will also resolve **Yes** if a main Metal Gear Solid title is released that is confirmed canonical by Konami and continues the story of the Metal Gear Saga in a way that is new (i.e. not a remake such as Delta), as determined by the judgement of Metaculus moderators.", "fine_print": "Non-canonical or semi-canonical side games, such as Metal Gear Survive or Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance will not trigger positive resolution.", "post_id": 17687, "aggregations": 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[speculation](https://www.techradar.com/news/metal-gear-solid-6) [has begun](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj2zaiPquv_AhWMtoQIHaWoDgwQz40FegQICBAK&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DMWqQfAimwCA&usg=AOvVaw0-B6VwCc79hqBmkn5WuZRL&opi=89978449) that the Metal Gear series, which has been dormant since the 2018 release of [Metal Gear Survive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Survive) and has not seen a canonical main title since 2015's [Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_V:_The_Phantom_Pain), will eventually receive a sixth title." }, { "id": 17682, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "short_title": "Putin's Martial Law Declaration", "url_title": "Putin's Martial Law Declaration", "slug": "putins-martial-law-declaration", "author_id": 126860, "author_username": "amygdala", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17682, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-30T10:03:53.673527Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T00:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T00:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:07:29.941668Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vladimir Putin officially declares a state of martial law covering 3/4 of all [federal subjects of Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) before January 1, 2025. The declaration should be recognized and implemented by the Russian government through official channels and public announcements.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of resolution, federal subjects whose territories are internationally recognized as part of Ukraine will not be considered in the 3/4 calculation.", "post_id": 17682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735662022.510716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735662022.510716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03723798110814398 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.470821233065875, 6.096240403883692, 0.9497074475097469, 0.04265526142258026, 0.1707241133540734, 0.49045428708101074, 0.0, 0.5356360517870654, 0.16871685475903522, 0.027654334619912763, 0.02685415048573589, 0.0, 0.00012443158798355354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027092930966798132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06163339913849769, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.2634655093702139, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.984185085196401e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012759492938860048, 0.0032672543510765713, 0.0, 0.0006068793783218393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13788621723318709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037246101996206123, 0.0, 0.000520080144308091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10049417417338719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33954305072254265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04770783938512042 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.65620146368566, "peer_score": 11.761208862345788, "coverage": 0.999677404329807, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999677404329807, "spot_peer_score": 37.826623406471725, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 91.65620146368566, "peer_archived_score": 11.761208862345788, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.826623406471725, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287166.887411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287166.887411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9920706266787742, 0.007929373321225779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 257, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe." }, { "id": 17679, "title": "Will 85% of Chrome users have cookies deprecated before June 2026?", "short_title": "End of internet cookies by June 2026 ?", "url_title": "End of internet cookies by June 2026 ?", "slug": "end-of-internet-cookies-by-june-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-30T06:23:34.043863Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T08:59:18.211216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17679, "title": "Will 85% of Chrome users have cookies deprecated before June 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-30T06:23:34.043863Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google announced in 2023 new developments related to [The Privacy Sandbox](https://developer.chrome.com/en/blog/shipping-privacy-sandbox/). The goal of the Privacy Sandbox is to create a more privacy-focused web environment that still allows for personalized content and ads without the invasive tracking practices that have become common.\n\nAs part of this initiative, Google will introduce a feature called Tracking Protection, which restricts access to third-party cookies by default, limiting the ability of sites to track users across the web. In Q1 2024, 1% of chrome users was supposed to get in a first trial of this new technology, supposed to end cookies.\n\nThe full implementation, which will see third-party cookies phased out completely, is planned for the second half of 2024, subject to regulatory considerations.", "resolution_criteria": "This forecast resolves positively if Google announces before June 1, 2026, that either 85% of Chrome users globally had seen cookies being deprecated or had been included in The Privacy Sandbox.", "fine_print": "Inclusion in the Privacy Sandbox or exclusion from the deprecated cookies system can be achieved through active notification, settings changes, or by being part of a test group. \n\nAn announcement will be an official communication from Google, for instance in the [quarterly updates from The Privacy Sandbox](https://privacysandbox.com/intl/en_us/news/), or a report by a credible news sources. If Google does not make update anymore and there is no sign that the initiative is still active, this will resolve negative.\n\nIn case there is any uncertainty, metaculus moderators will determine whether this criteria is met.\n\nThis resolution will apply regardless of whether regulatory or technical challenges reverse the initiative.", "post_id": 17679, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762765147.904388, "end_time": 1766459306.916, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762765147.904388, "end_time": 1766459306.916, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05407496197694981 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1769212063177643, 0.0, 1.3681678989571866, 0.0, 1.0941681173036915, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.362543115534516, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287987.215833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287987.215833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9533311382226219, 0.04666886177737811 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google announced in 2023 new developments related to [The Privacy Sandbox](https://developer.chrome.com/en/blog/shipping-privacy-sandbox/). The goal of the Privacy Sandbox is to create a more privacy-focused web environment that still allows for personalized content and ads without the invasive tracking practices that have become common.\n\nAs part of this initiative, Google will introduce a feature called Tracking Protection, which restricts access to third-party cookies by default, limiting the ability of sites to track users across the web. In Q1 2024, 1% of chrome users was supposed to get in a first trial of this new technology, supposed to end cookies.\n\nThe full implementation, which will see third-party cookies phased out completely, is planned for the second half of 2024, subject to regulatory considerations." }, { "id": 17660, "title": "Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?", "short_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "url_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "slug": "mandatory-cyclone-evacuation-in-va-in-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-29T16:18:46.436555Z", "published_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.700047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the government of Virginia (either state or local) orders a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone.", "fine_print": "A mandatory evacuation need not be for an entire zone, a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone for a city or other region would also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 17660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.056143112512699773 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.885813433716825, 2.591439130411893, 0.2519740871949554, 0.10299458082921686, 0.3049561900209807, 0.3870916529473755, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196, 0.3001012763665529, 0.0, 0.2131831510547586, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07807940007898889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07969882353158218, 0.15635056202879707, 0.2758521521053194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30155575609455343 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.478048574225653, "coverage": 0.9999811427212195, "baseline_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_score": 8.913273638998652, "peer_archived_score": 20.478048574225653, "baseline_archived_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.913273638998652 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation." }, { "id": 17655, "title": "Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?", "short_title": "Palestinian Authority bankrupt in 2023?", "url_title": "Palestinian Authority bankrupt in 2023?", "slug": "palestinian-authority-bankrupt-in-2023", "author_id": 149110, "author_username": "larik1982", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-29T13:52:37.402302Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.158508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17655, "title": "Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-29T13:52:37.402302Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T01:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T01:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority [disputed this claim](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230703-pa-minister-dismisses-possibility-of-bankruptcy/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reputable sources report the Palestinian Authority is bankrupt.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989350.144895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989350.144895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026018220812915833 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.116151103515008, 5.288334558464893, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.2510353527084724, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1799995535041516, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.590771510703721, "coverage": 0.9971937301635796, "baseline_score": 89.37171884804232, "spot_peer_score": 12.624545485768582, "peer_archived_score": 5.590771510703721, "baseline_archived_score": 89.37171884804232, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.624545485768582 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008405.143351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008405.143351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority [disputed this claim](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230703-pa-minister-dismisses-possibility-of-bankruptcy/)." }, { "id": 17598, "title": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "short_title": "Garland Impeached Before 2024 Election", "url_title": "Garland Impeached Before 2024 Election", "slug": "garland-impeached-before-2024-election", "author_id": 123419, "author_username": "Prodicus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-27T09:34:10.494352Z", "published_at": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.795757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17598, "title": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "created_at": "2023-06-27T09:34:10.494352Z", "open_time": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-30T21:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-30T21:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:42:39.874284Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).\n\n>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.\n\n>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.\n\n>\"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ,\" McCarthy wrote. (An inquiry would be a precursor to the House potentially voting on specific articles of impeachment on Garland.)\n\n>On Monday, McCarthy said on Fox News: \"If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we're going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general.\"\n\nThe impeachment of Merrick Garland would be notable not only for having been the first impeachment of an Attorney General in United States history, but also for its potential political impact on the 2024 Presidential election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Attorney General Merrick Garland is impeached by the United States House of Representatives before November 5th, 2024.", "fine_print": "* This question resolves purely and only on the basis of impeachment by the House of Representatives. Conviction in the Senate is neither required nor relevant.\n* This question will resolve as **No** if Garland is not impeached before November 5th, 2024, even if Attorney General Garland resigns or dies before the resolution date. Note that even in such case, an early resolution of **No** will not be possible, as the second impeachment of Donald Trump has demonstrated that impeachments can occur even after the individual no longer holds office.", "post_id": 17598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730669604.407666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730669604.407666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013248508118725503 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.299168131948216, 2.2335786209915085, 0.6065719876167774, 0.357428079231559, 0.24914587602095306, 0.41078356131525007, 0.01590012308576472, 0.0, 0.2473710650506747, 0.15724883273568244, 0.04038661645555275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055089962873426206, 0.0464771490380007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.16459522650518, "peer_score": 7.927756175302221, "coverage": 0.9999505246737054, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999505246737054, "spot_peer_score": 6.10035609086405, "baseline_archived_score": 91.16459522650518, "peer_archived_score": 7.927756175302221, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.10035609086405 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287877.679777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287877.679777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).\n\n>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.\n\n>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.\n\n>\"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ,\" McCarthy wrote. (An inquiry would be a precursor to the House potentially voting on specific articles of impeachment on Garland.)\n\n>On Monday, McCarthy said on Fox News: \"If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we're going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general.\"\n\nThe impeachment of Merrick Garland would be notable not only for having been the first impeachment of an Attorney General in United States history, but also for its potential political impact on the 2024 Presidential election." }, { "id": 17593, "title": "Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?", "short_title": "Sacremento Kings reach conference semifinals?", "url_title": "Sacremento Kings reach conference semifinals?", "slug": "sacremento-kings-reach-conference-semifinals", "author_id": 147273, "author_username": "mriddle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:38:34.363785Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T00:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.535617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T00:54:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-20T04:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-20T04:06:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17593, "title": "Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:38:34.363785Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T00:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T00:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-20T04:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-20T04:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-20T04:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-15T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Sacramento Kings reach the Conference Semifinals of the NBA playoffs for the 2023-2024 NBA season.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713186480.785776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713186480.785776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.14304417415214732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.341965030519987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2928206648352225, 0.8218869508967813, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 1.3022490838961098, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.256296736744026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.5661009165733082, "coverage": 0.9974008884904114, "baseline_score": 29.621182227716094, "spot_peer_score": 11.175888618031088, "peer_archived_score": -0.5661009165733082, "baseline_archived_score": 29.621182227716094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.175888618031088 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713186480.826138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713186480.826138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9744291413020898, 0.02557085869791025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year." }, { "id": 17592, "title": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Dow Jones Reaches 35k Before August 2023?", "url_title": "Dow Jones Reaches 35k Before August 2023?", "slug": "dow-jones-reaches-35k-before-august-2023", "author_id": 147273, "author_username": "mriddle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:34:19.822849Z", "published_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.964356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17592, "title": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:34:19.822849Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-06T22:57:58.314756Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-06T22:57:58.314756Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:\n\n>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy.\n>. . . \n>The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times—the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.\n>\n>The Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.\n\nDJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA [first hit $35,000 in July of 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-35000-first-time/) but declined in early 2022 as [markets fell](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/) amid [high inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16FjE) and [rising federal funds rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16iWr). The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 3, 2023 and before August 1, 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes at or above $35,000 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?p=%5EDJI).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689797109.025765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689797109.025765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9682521974410838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0010741177252844374, 0.0, 0.00036232346318498663, 0.0, 0.001220606295562353, 0.0, 2.3410862392893172e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00215004106960638, 0.001051552134978165, 0.0017479543202170607, 0.0, 0.0045129373305192785, 0.0, 0.004691056929177161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009931597793361535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010532027578123082, 0.0008353887890924406, 0.021879050939369694, 0.016409316214386887, 0.0, 0.020456675218109836, 0.0, 0.006766614864541703, 0.0, 0.017476218675085583, 0.01791145571724487, 0.002976330585691177, 0.032949901624429005, 0.001874084487187542, 0.004520885120704202, 0.0, 0.004389763986605724, 0.03797353800940952, 0.020203590773710825, 0.0, 8.123993345234554e-05, 0.008581003048623472, 0.0001636312770363619, 0.011212370926537516, 0.018302611707135763, 0.0, 6.653687737431605e-05, 0.0416473750714589, 0.014741051360396558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016291941851079427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669519242201262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07786106478195007, 0.08284883777820473, 0.0, 0.0, 8.544548928091942e-05, 0.0004714084376997052, 0.0, 0.1457218806272042, 0.0, 1.6026806675542162e-05, 0.17167373400697733, 0.0827101160271678, 0.0, 0.049655352904120285, 0.0, 0.3292623552074465, 0.0, 0.04299561563587514, 1.022435883901734e-05, 0.08413573237910194, 0.04782471097211304, 9.629473860520273e-05, 0.09922178561650803, 0.11119688083683586, 0.07222586385935753, 0.26829523414205997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28184789742155847, 1.188128273658218, 0.8786587744480575, 0.506629417869477, 2.3444120365440373, 18.282503832966192 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.546366691061737, "coverage": 0.5629756649071546, "baseline_score": -29.77163517667617, "spot_peer_score": -7.719730385897265, "peer_archived_score": 5.546366691061737, "baseline_archived_score": -29.77163517667617, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.719730385897265 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689782107.700413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689782107.700413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10871532819962881, 0.8912846718003712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1020, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:\n\n>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy.\n>. . . \n>The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times—the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.\n>\n>The Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.\n\nDJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA [first hit $35,000 in July of 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-35000-first-time/) but declined in early 2022 as [markets fell](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/) amid [high inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16FjE) and [rising federal funds rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16iWr). The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022." }, { "id": 17584, "title": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "short_title": "Chain of Freedom Scotland 2023?", "url_title": "Chain of Freedom Scotland 2023?", "slug": "chain-of-freedom-scotland-2023", "author_id": 148784, "author_username": "alfieshaw0", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T14:14:32.855233Z", "published_at": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.059412Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17584, "title": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T14:14:32.855233Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-09T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-09T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by [Chain of Freedom Scotland](https://chainoffreedom.scot/) aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?\n\nThe rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Way), a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union. \n\nThe chain aims to be continuous with the [exception that roads will not be blocked](https://chainoffreedom.scot/the-plan-info-details/):\n\n>The Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.\n\nThe event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly [56 kilometers in length](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forth_and_Clyde_Canal), meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is [here](https://chainoffreedom.scot/#livemap).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 16, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a \"continuous\" or \"nearly continuous\" human chain stretched across the length of the Forth and Clyde canal on October 14, 2023, with sufficient attendance for the chain to be unbroken for the full length or nearly the full length, with the exception of openings for roads.", "fine_print": "* If reports are unclear or sources conflict on whether the chain is at least \"nearly continuous\", the question will resolve as **Yes** if attendance is estimated to be 50,000 people or more. Where a range of attendance estimates is provided the median will be used.\n* In the event of conflicting reports or attendance estimates, Metaculus will make a determination of whether descriptions from credible sources meet these criteria, or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* This question will primarily rely on characterizations from credible sources, but the frequent use of flags, ropes, chains, or other objects to stretch between large gaps in humans will generally be considered to not count. For example, language like \"made nearly continuous through the use of numerous long flags\" will not qualify.", "post_id": 17584, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697236219.436638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697236219.436638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23373400236872388 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16702785955340174, 0.03914148754336097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17946090628082964, 0.01010533010201989, 0.3546399820313133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0597247273800214, 0.8219184867403234, 1.5111600052365732, 0.8610794143698182, 0.694497469036593, 1.0151911884850306, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0353016738858356, 0.11528368492778149, 1.3088422461192322, 0.020510395521472824, 0.5660050386409459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331227464727515, 0.07171643370137068, 0.0, 0.06601997791471219, 0.0, 0.700779503519896, 0.458156727378913, 0.0, 0.04259962719327183, 0.6129528877993063, 1.2396950795623023, 1.0, 0.0, 0.12834919204195522, 0.0, 0.045309458519190556, 0.10677225309695815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0621111162657109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1370171216516927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014957369821392823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04285069030564917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016308111255132523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027687183307636316, 0.00786907671175604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09133304969971341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.899939169888313, "coverage": 0.9999239329331768, "baseline_score": 30.827337830410176, "spot_peer_score": 26.35029066750572, "peer_archived_score": 17.899939169888313, "baseline_archived_score": 30.827337830410176, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.35029066750572 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697236219.509531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697236219.509531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9014876907632826, 0.09851230923671737 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 246, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by [Chain of Freedom Scotland](https://chainoffreedom.scot/) aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?\n\nThe rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Way), a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union. \n\nThe chain aims to be continuous with the [exception that roads will not be blocked](https://chainoffreedom.scot/the-plan-info-details/):\n\n>The Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.\n\nThe event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly [56 kilometers in length](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forth_and_Clyde_Canal), meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is [here](https://chainoffreedom.scot/#livemap)." }, { "id": 17581, "title": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "short_title": "Musk - Zuckerberg Cage Match 2023", "url_title": "Musk - Zuckerberg Cage Match 2023", "slug": "musk-zuckerberg-cage-match-2023", "author_id": 147790, "author_username": "SusanB", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T00:29:50.448661Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.854030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17581, "title": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T00:29:50.448661Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-08T15:20:27.323064Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-08T15:20:27.323064Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg. \n\nIt seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have [agreed to fight each other](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/22/elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight/) in a cage match, in not so many words at least, by the following exchange:\n\nMusk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was \"up for a cage fight\" with Zuckerberg.\n\nZuckerberg, owner of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Musk's tweet, saying \"send me location\".\"\n\nMany news outlets have been discussing the [two billionaires' competitive history](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-b71fa4ff) with one another, their fighting abilities and strengths, and who has a better chance of winning. 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Social media is also in a frenzy of speculation regarding when (and if) the cage match will occur, and which of the two will win." } ] }
