Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=360
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=340", "results": [ { "id": 36876, "title": "Чи перевищать втрати особового складу Росії 1 мільйон осіб до 10.06.2025", "short_title": "Russia's losses of 1 million people as of 10 June 2025", "url_title": "Russia's losses of 1 million people as of 10 June 2025", "slug": "russias-losses-of-1-million-people-as-of-10-june-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:03.607484Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:32.526554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:59.992270Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 36305, "title": "Чи перевищать втрати особового складу Росії 1 мільйон осіб до 10.06.2025", "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:09:03.607825Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-10T07:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-10T07:23:08.517574Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "З початку вторгнення Росії в Україну 24 лютого 2022-го року Генштаб Украхни веде статистику втрат окупаційних військ. На даний момент кількість втрат окупантів у особовому складі вже перевищила 900 000 осіб і за останній рік у середньому створює +1250 осіб на добу. За підтримки таких темпів мільон втрат буде досягнуто у квітні 2025-го року.", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання буде вирішене у **Так**, якщо до 10.06.2025 Міністерство Оборони України опублікує звіт, у якому буде вказано більше ніж 1 мільйон втрат особового складу Росії.\n\nЯкщо у всіх звітах, оприлюднених до 10.06.2025 буде вказано менше ніж 1 мільйон втрат, це питання буде вирішено у **Ні**.\n\nДля вирішення цього питання будуть враховуватись звіти, опубліковані [<u>на офіційній сторінці</u>](https://mod.gov.ua/news?tags=%D0%92%D1%96%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%96%D1%87+%D0%B0%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83), а також на сторінках Генштабу у соціальних мережах ([<u>Facebook</u>](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua),[ <u>Telegram</u>](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU),[ <u>X.com</u>](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA)).. \n\nДодаткова статистика і тренди доступні на сайтах [<u>russian-casualties-in-ua</u>](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/),[ <u>Combat.FYI</u>](https://combat.fyi/) та у[ <u>2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset</u>](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)", "fine_print": "Адміністрація зачекає 1 додатковий день для вирішення цього питання, для того аби переконатись, що ключовий звіт не буде змодифікований ретроспективно.", "post_id": 36876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749184475.25176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749184475.25176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.55 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -42.74585292614166, "peer_score": 9.398616049088089, "coverage": 0.9887872244116362, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9887872244116362, "spot_peer_score": 40.82390349908898, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "baseline_archived_score": -42.74585292614166, "peer_archived_score": 9.398616049088089, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.82390349908898, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "З початку вторгнення Росії в Україну 24 лютого 2022-го року Генштаб Украхни веде статистику втрат окупаційних військ. На даний момент кількість втрат окупантів у особовому складі вже перевищила 900 000 осіб і за останній рік у середньому створює +1250 осіб на добу. За підтримки таких темпів мільон втрат буде досягнуто у квітні 2025-го року." }, { "id": 36875, "title": "Чи будуть дві третини населення довіряти президенту Зеленському у травні-червні 2025 року?", "short_title": "Public trust in Zelensky in May-June 2025", "url_title": "Public trust in Zelensky in May-June 2025", "slug": "public-trust-in-zelensky-in-may-june-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:00:47.690079Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:15.269036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T20:01:21.318344Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 36304, "title": "Чи будуть дві третини населення довіряти президенту Зеленському у травні-червні 2025 року?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T20:00:47.690513Z", "open_time": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-11T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-17T15:56:36.454851Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Київський Міжнародний Інститут Соціології [<u>проводить регулярні опитування</u>](https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr\\&cat=reports\\&id=1510\\&page=1\\&t=1) населення, вимірюючи різні параметри політичної активності в Україні. Одне з питань **Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте Володимиру Зеленському?».** \n\n\n\nДля демократичних країн є типовим втрата довіра до президента з часом після його обрання. Це також називають періодом “[<u>медового місяця</u>](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)“, коли на новообраного президента ставлять багато надій, і ці надії поступово випаровуються і тиснуть на рейтинг вниз. \n\nСхожу картину ми бачили у рейтингу президента Володимира Зеленського з травня 2022-го року, щоправда у цьому випадку “медовий місяць” був спричинений вторгненням Російської Федерації в Україну і консолідацією суспільства навколо президента.\n\nУ лютому 2025-го після конфлікту з Дональдом Трампом і Дж. Ді Венсом у Білому Домі, рейтинг президента знов зріс до 69%. Але питання, чи залишиться він на цьому ж рівні?\n\n\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "Це питання вирішиться у **Так** якщо за результатом опитування КМІС “*Динаміка довіри Президенту В. Зеленському в 2019-2025 роках*” у травні або червні 2025-го варіант “*Довіряю*” отримає **67%** або вище. Якщо результат буде нижче ніж 67%, це питання буде вирішене у **Ні**.\n\nТільки перше опитування, що належить до цього інтервалу, враховується для вирішення.", "fine_print": "Перше опитування, **дата початку** якого є включно або пізніше 01.05.2025 та раніше ніж 01.07.2025 буде використане для вирішення цього питання. Якщо таких опитувань не буде проведено до 05.07.2025, це питання буде **анульоване**. \n\nЯкщо датою буде вказано один або декілька місяців, це сприймається як “з першого числа місяця початку до останнього числа місяця закінчення”. Тобто опитування з датами **тра.25**, **чер.25** і **тра.25-чер.25** буде враховано.\n\nЯкщо питання у опитуванні КМІС буде суттєво модифіковано, наприклад, додані нові варіанти відповіді, або якщо Зеленський перестане бути президентом України на момент опитування, це питання буде також **анульоване**. \n\nТільки опитування КМІС буде враховано. Опитування інших джерел не враховуються.", "post_id": 36875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746086891.178374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746086891.178374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -46.44408057134586, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.2673863013023028, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9693763189207351, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -46.44408057134586, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Київський Міжнародний Інститут Соціології [<u>проводить регулярні опитування</u>](https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr\\&cat=reports\\&id=1510\\&page=1\\&t=1) населення, вимірюючи різні параметри політичної активності в Україні. Одне з питань **Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте Володимиру Зеленському?».** \n\n\n\nДля демократичних країн є типовим втрата довіра до президента з часом після його обрання. Це також називають періодом “[<u>медового місяця</u>](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)“, коли на новообраного президента ставлять багато надій, і ці надії поступово випаровуються і тиснуть на рейтинг вниз. \n\nСхожу картину ми бачили у рейтингу президента Володимира Зеленського з травня 2022-го року, щоправда у цьому випадку “медовий місяць” був спричинений вторгненням Російської Федерації в Україну і консолідацією суспільства навколо президента.\n\nУ лютому 2025-го після конфлікту з Дональдом Трампом і Дж. Ді Венсом у Білому Домі, рейтинг президента знов зріс до 69%. Але питання, чи залишиться він на цьому ж рівні?\n\n\n\n" }, { "id": 36872, "title": "Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "short_title": "Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "url_title": "Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "slug": "yield-on-10-year-us-treasury-notes-exceed-5-for-at-least-one-month-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:38:22.767474Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:28.392193Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:46.590947Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36296, "title": "Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:38:22.767895Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, often seen as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, reflects the interplay of inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and investor confidence in U.S. debt. As of early 2025, the 10-year yield stands at approximately [<u>4.3%, up from 3.88% at the end of 2024</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a robust U.S. economy. Historically, yields last breached 5% in 2007, before the financial crisis sent them tumbling \\[FRED, 2025]. Today, with the federal funds rate holding above 4% and the [<u>Fed signaling caution on rate cuts</u>](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), the trajectory of Treasury yields is a hot topic among economists and investors.\n\nThis forecast—whether the 10-year yield will exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025—is critical because it tests the resilience of the U.S. financial system under mounting pressures. Some analysts, including crypto commentator [<u>Arthur Hayes, argue that rising yields could signal market unease</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b) with ballooning U.S. deficits—[<u>projected to hit \\$2 trillion annually by 2025</u>](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/2025-budget-outlook)—forcing the Fed to resume money printing to cap borrowing costs. Others point to global factors, like Japan’s loose monetary stance or China’s economic maneuvers, [<u>as potential amplifiers of yield volatility</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-15/global-bond-markets-face-new-reality). Yet, a [<u>strong dollar and demand for safe-haven assets</u>](https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-climb-2025) could keep yields in check.\n\nThe implications are substantial. [<u>A sustained 5% yield could raise mortgage rates, squeeze corporate borrowing, and rattle equity markets</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investing/2025/03/20/rising-treasury-yields-impact/), potentially tipping the U.S. into recession. It might also trigger a policy pivot, with the Fed slashing rates or expanding its balance sheet—moves that could boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as some predict. For bond traders, policymakers, and everyday consumers, this question probes whether 2025 will mark a breaking point for the Treasury market or a return to tighter equilibrium.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if by December 31st, 2025 the 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one week according to the monthly average yield data from the [<u>U.S. Treasury Department or Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) in 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747075510.695977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747075510.695977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.19205967722287737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes, often seen as a benchmark for global borrowing costs, reflects the interplay of inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and investor confidence in U.S. debt. As of early 2025, the 10-year yield stands at approximately [<u>4.3%, up from 3.88% at the end of 2024</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a robust U.S. economy. Historically, yields last breached 5% in 2007, before the financial crisis sent them tumbling \\[FRED, 2025]. Today, with the federal funds rate holding above 4% and the [<u>Fed signaling caution on rate cuts</u>](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), the trajectory of Treasury yields is a hot topic among economists and investors.\n\nThis forecast—whether the 10-year yield will exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025—is critical because it tests the resilience of the U.S. financial system under mounting pressures. Some analysts, including crypto commentator [<u>Arthur Hayes, argue that rising yields could signal market unease</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b) with ballooning U.S. deficits—[<u>projected to hit \\$2 trillion annually by 2025</u>](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/2025-budget-outlook)—forcing the Fed to resume money printing to cap borrowing costs. Others point to global factors, like Japan’s loose monetary stance or China’s economic maneuvers, [<u>as potential amplifiers of yield volatility</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-15/global-bond-markets-face-new-reality). Yet, a [<u>strong dollar and demand for safe-haven assets</u>](https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-climb-2025) could keep yields in check.\n\nThe implications are substantial. [<u>A sustained 5% yield could raise mortgage rates, squeeze corporate borrowing, and rattle equity markets</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/investing/2025/03/20/rising-treasury-yields-impact/), potentially tipping the U.S. into recession. It might also trigger a policy pivot, with the Fed slashing rates or expanding its balance sheet—moves that could boost risk assets like Bitcoin, as some predict. For bond traders, policymakers, and everyday consumers, this question probes whether 2025 will mark a breaking point for the Treasury market or a return to tighter equilibrium." }, { "id": 36871, "title": "Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "short_title": "Market cap for USDT & USDC surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "url_title": "Market cap for USDT & USDC surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "slug": "market-cap-for-usdt-usdc-surpass-300-billion-usd-by-june-30-2026", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:35:53.617089Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:53:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T16:13:00.787102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:54:01.100466Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36295, "title": "Will the market capitalization for USDT & USDC stablecoins surpass $300 billion USD by June 30, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-08T15:35:53.617468Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:53:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:53:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have become linchpins of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, offering a bridge between volatile digital assets and traditional fiat currencies. As of early 2025, their combined market capitalization hovers around \\$150–\\$200 billion USD, according to data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, with [<u>USDT</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/) dominating as the most widely used stablecoin globally and [<u>USDC</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) gaining traction among institutional players for its transparency and regulatory compliance. These assets underpin decentralized finance (DeFi), facilitate trading on crypto exchanges, and serve as a store of value in regions with unstable local currencies.\n\nThis forecast—whether USDT and USDC’s combined market cap will surpass \\$300 billion by June 30, 2026—is significant because it tests the trajectory of stablecoin adoption amid shifting macroeconomic winds. Analysts suggest that renewed U.S. Federal Reserve easing, potentially driven by rising inflation or Treasury market pressures, could flood markets with liquidity, [<u>spurring demand for stablecoins as a hedge or transactional medium</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b). Current Fed policies, with rates steady above 4% as of early 2025, face scrutiny as [<u>10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), hinting at conditions that might force monetary expansion. Conversely, regulatory risks loom large—[<u>USDT’s past opacity and potential U.S. clampdowns on stablecoin issuers could stall growth</u>](https://www.forbes.com/investing/worlds-largest-stablecoins/).\n\nThe implications are profound. A \\$300 billion market cap would [<u>signal deeper integration of crypto into mainstream finance</u>](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2025/03/stablecoins-digital-currencies-rise/), challenging banks and amplifying stablecoins’ role in cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity pools. It could also reflect a flight to digital safety nets if inflation exceeds 4% annually, [<u>as some predict</u>](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). For traders, developers, and policymakers, this question probes whether stablecoins will solidify as the backbone of a new financial paradigm—or face a ceiling as global authorities and competing digital currencies, like CBDCs, close in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if by June 30th, 2026, the total market cap for both USDT and USDC stablecoins - according to CoinGecko OR CoinMarketCap - is greater than \\$300 billion USD.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752682369.874715, "end_time": 1754804593.868, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752682369.874715, "end_time": 1754804593.868, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.8373615385740527 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) have become linchpins of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, offering a bridge between volatile digital assets and traditional fiat currencies. As of early 2025, their combined market capitalization hovers around \\$150–\\$200 billion USD, according to data from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap, with [<u>USDT</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/) dominating as the most widely used stablecoin globally and [<u>USDC</u>](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) gaining traction among institutional players for its transparency and regulatory compliance. These assets underpin decentralized finance (DeFi), facilitate trading on crypto exchanges, and serve as a store of value in regions with unstable local currencies.\n\nThis forecast—whether USDT and USDC’s combined market cap will surpass \\$300 billion by June 30, 2026—is significant because it tests the trajectory of stablecoin adoption amid shifting macroeconomic winds. Analysts suggest that renewed U.S. Federal Reserve easing, potentially driven by rising inflation or Treasury market pressures, could flood markets with liquidity, [<u>spurring demand for stablecoins as a hedge or transactional medium</u>](https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-bbc-a33ddb3ce00b). Current Fed policies, with rates steady above 4% as of early 2025, face scrutiny as [<u>10-year Treasury yields climb toward 4.5%</u>](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10), hinting at conditions that might force monetary expansion. Conversely, regulatory risks loom large—[<u>USDT’s past opacity and potential U.S. clampdowns on stablecoin issuers could stall growth</u>](https://www.forbes.com/investing/worlds-largest-stablecoins/).\n\nThe implications are profound. A \\$300 billion market cap would [<u>signal deeper integration of crypto into mainstream finance</u>](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2025/03/stablecoins-digital-currencies-rise/), challenging banks and amplifying stablecoins’ role in cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity pools. It could also reflect a flight to digital safety nets if inflation exceeds 4% annually, [<u>as some predict</u>](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). For traders, developers, and policymakers, this question probes whether stablecoins will solidify as the backbone of a new financial paradigm—or face a ceiling as global authorities and competing digital currencies, like CBDCs, close in." }, { "id": 36815, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.694881Z", "published_at": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:50.855931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36246, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.694881Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:24:24.508413Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36815, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745171897.885159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745171897.885159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3291659847671395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.8410160875171272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2733956658274703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 2.190721682055657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5344485162951622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.053801648273516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36812, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.530952Z", "published_at": "2025-04-20T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:25.468076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36243, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.530952Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:20:51.131495Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36809, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.389745Z", "published_at": "2025-04-20T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:16.596788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36240, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.389745Z", "open_time": "2025-04-20T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:32:21.461064Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-20T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36800, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.157193Z", "published_at": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:23.861004Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36231, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:12.157193Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:36:32.668857Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36797, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.981230Z", "published_at": "2025-04-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:44.076289Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36228, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.981230Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:44:54.698402Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36794, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.809810Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:01.581294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36225, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.809810Z", "open_time": "2025-04-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T11:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T11:45:17.652712Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-19T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36782, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.418680Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:18.848513Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36213, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.418680Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:24:00.392448Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-18T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36779, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.249863Z", "published_at": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:43.706602Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36210, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:11.249863Z", "open_time": "2025-04-17T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T13:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T13:25:17.730595Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-17T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" } ] }
