Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=360
{ "count": 6261, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=340", "results": [ { "id": 39547, "title": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?", "short_title": "Invasion of Taiwan in 2025?", "url_title": "Invasion of Taiwan in 2025?", "slug": "invasion-of-taiwan-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.063152Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T17:00:00.290090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.377925Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38924, "title": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.063546Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35272). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe People's Republic of China (PRC) officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, while the Republic of China (ROC) currently governs the islands. Tensions between the two sides have persisted since the Chinese Civil War. Although there has been no active conflict since 1979, no formal armistice or peace treaty has been signed.\n\n Recent years have seen increased military activity and diplomatic tensions, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and increasing pressure through economic and political means. The United States and allied nations have also expressed support for Taiwanese autonomy, further complicating the geopolitical situation. The possibility of conflict remains a significant global concern, with potential implications for regional stability, global supply chains, and international diplomatic relations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35272,\"question_id\":34756}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, one or both of the following conditions are met:\n\n • (1) Both the Associated Press and The New York Times report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan;\n\n • (2) At least 1,000 People's Liberation Army troops have been deployed in Taiwan with the aim of bringing the sovereignty of the main island under PRC control.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39547, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758646290.664217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0325 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758646290.664217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0325 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09950231017586621 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.0, 9.0, 9.0, 9.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35272). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe People's Republic of China (PRC) officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, while the Republic of China (ROC) currently governs the islands. Tensions between the two sides have persisted since the Chinese Civil War. Although there has been no active conflict since 1979, no formal armistice or peace treaty has been signed.\n\n Recent years have seen increased military activity and diplomatic tensions, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and increasing pressure through economic and political means. The United States and allied nations have also expressed support for Taiwanese autonomy, further complicating the geopolitical situation. The possibility of conflict remains a significant global concern, with potential implications for regional stability, global supply chains, and international diplomatic relations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35272,\"question_id\":34756}}`" }, { "id": 39546, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "short_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "slug": "donald-trump-positive-net-favorability-on-december-20-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.424894Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T16:25:00.212203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.766010Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38923, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.425290Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31098). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31098,\"question_id\":30830}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 20, 2025 is \"Favorable\" [as reported by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/). The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented by 538.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's rating is classified as \"Favorable\" by 538, even if that rating is 0.0. In case 538 has stopped classifying ratings as \"Favorable\" or \"Unfavorable\" or other equivalent categories (such as Approve/Disapprove), this question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's Favorable rating is greater than his Unfavorable rating.\n\nThis question will resolve on the first day after December 26, 2025 that an estimate for December 20, 2024 is published on the 538 website. Potential revisions after that will not affect the resolution.\n\nIf no value for December 20, 2025 has been published until January 3, 2026, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 13, 2025 and before December 27, 2025.\n\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 19, 2025 is shown on the site but not one for December 21, 2025), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.", "post_id": 39546, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759162952.411841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759162952.411841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1637149859984694 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 6.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31098). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31098,\"question_id\":30830}}`" }, { "id": 39545, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "H5 receives high IRAT emergence risk rating by Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "H5 receives high IRAT emergence risk rating by Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "h5-receives-high-irat-emergence-risk-rating-by-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:29.664514Z", "published_at": "2025-10-12T23:26:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T00:57:00.241135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.101977Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-12T23:26:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38922, "title": "Will an H5 virus receive an \"emergence\" risk rating categorized as \"high\" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:29.664911Z", "open_time": "2025-10-12T23:26:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T00:56:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-24 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29086). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29086,\"question_id\":29002}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Centers for Disease Controls' [Influenza Risk Assessment Tool](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) (IRAT) provides a weighted risk of potential emergence score characterized as *high* for any H5 influenza virus. This [is defined](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html) as a score greater than or equal to 8.0. \r\n\r\nIf this does not occur before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The IRAT currently has the following risk levels with respect to its scores (on a 10-point scale): \r\n\r\n>Low risk is associated with a point score between 1.0 and 3.9;\r\n>Moderate risk is associated with a point score between 4.0-7.9; and,\r\n>High risk is associated with a point score between 8.0-10.0.\r\n\r\nIf the IRAT's scoring methodology changes, this question resolves based on the mathematically equivalent scores. Should it stop using numerical scores, the question resolves based on whether the new terminology corresponds with the current \"high\" risk categorization.\r\n\r\nAn individual \"risk element\" receiving a score of 8.0 or above does not qualify, only the overall weighted risk of potential emergence score qualifies.", "post_id": 39545, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760315889.406677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760315889.406677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12315778883694496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 6.0, 9.0, 4.0, 8.0, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 20.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-24 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29086). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):\r\n\r\n>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.\r\n\r\nThe IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:\r\n\r\n- Human infections\r\n- Transmission in animal models\r\n- Receptor binding\r\n- Population immunity\r\n- Infections in animals\r\n- Genomic analysis\r\n- Antigenic relatedness\r\n- Global distribution of animals\r\n- Disease severity and pathogenesis\r\n \r\nAs of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29086,\"question_id\":29002}}`" }, { "id": 39544, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "url_title": "Will US interest rates be lower at end-2025 than end-2024?", "slug": "will-us-interest-rates-be-lower-at-end-2025-than-end-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:28.893330Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T18:09:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-03T19:40:00.337390Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:29.308517Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-03T18:09:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38921, "title": "Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:28.893745Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T18:09:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T19:39:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 19:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31252). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31252,\"question_id\":30904}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Effective Federal Funds Rate on December 31, 2025 is lower than 4.33%, according to the [Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr).", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve according to the Effective Federal Funds Rate, found in the \"Rate\" column in the linked site, and *not* according to the target rate.\n* If the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ceases reporting these data, this question might resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as determined by Metaculus.", "post_id": 39544, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759519987.569263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.931 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759519987.569263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.931 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8210330529220762 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 23.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 4.0, 9.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 19:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31252). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [federal funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) is the benchmark interest rate in the US economy and broadly affects key economic conditions such as inflation, employment, and economic growth. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve as a cornerstone of its monetary policy strategy.\n\nIn the beginning of 2022, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to address surging inflation, marking one of the fastest tightening cycles in recent history. As inflation [began to decline](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm), the Fed initiating rate cuts in September 2024. Since then, the FOMC has consistently lowered the federal funds rate at each subsequent meeting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31252,\"question_id\":30904}}`" }, { "id": 39543, "title": "Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?", "short_title": "Will Nvidia stock rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Nvidia stock rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-nvidia-stock-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:28.300180Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T10:28:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T11:59:00.265941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:28.607920Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-21T10:28:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38920, "title": "Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:28.300592Z", "open_time": "2025-09-21T10:28:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T11:58:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35574). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNvidia is a leading technology company specializing in AI and graphics processors. The company's stock has shown strong growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for AI technologies and graphics processing units (GPUs). In 2024, Nvidia's share price will increase by approximately 170%, reflecting its strong performance.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35574,\"question_id\":35024}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Nvidia's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $134.29, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.", "fine_print": "* If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.", "post_id": 39543, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758453811.38005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758453811.38005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.7937685939722201 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 27.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35574). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNvidia is a leading technology company specializing in AI and graphics processors. The company's stock has shown strong growth in recent years, driven by the increasing demand for AI technologies and graphics processing units (GPUs). In 2024, Nvidia's share price will increase by approximately 170%, reflecting its strong performance.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35574,\"question_id\":35024}}`" }, { "id": 39541, "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?", "short_title": "Ghislaine Maxwell Confirmed Reddit Accout", "url_title": "Ghislaine Maxwell Confirmed Reddit Accout", "slug": "ghislaine-maxwell-confirmed-reddit-accout", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:27.012057Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T05:54:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T07:25:00.184969Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:27.384959Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-02T05:54:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38918, "title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:27.012498Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T05:54:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T07:24:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-05-14 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \n\nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\n\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n\n* Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username\n* maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged\n* maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n* Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \n\nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7082,\"question_id\":7082}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \n\nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39541, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759389544.287452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759389544.287452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08001144894411104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 19.0, 9.0, 9.0, 4.0, 19.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-05-14 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \n\nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\n\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n\n* Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username\n* maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged\n* maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n* Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \n\nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7082,\"question_id\":7082}}`" }, { "id": 39540, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "short_title": "Ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "url_title": "Ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "slug": "ceasefire-in-the-russo-ukraine-conflict-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:26.275259Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T16:52:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T18:23:00.162722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:26.660655Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T16:52:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38917, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:26.275688Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T16:52:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T18:22:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31121). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFollowing Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31121,\"question_id\":30849}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. If no ceasefire has stood for 30 days before January 30, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39540, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760811659.660462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12847862562941983 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760811659.660462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12847862562941983 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2132187743524004 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 1.0, 15.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31121). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFollowing Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31121,\"question_id\":30849}}`" }, { "id": 39538, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "short_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "url_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "slug": "us-fine-or-damages-for-ai-training-data-usage", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:19.846501Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T14:17:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:48:00.401891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:20.129231Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-30T14:17:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38915, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:19.846905Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T14:17:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T15:47:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-06-10 19:54:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17408). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSince the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17408,\"question_id\":17408}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, either of the following happens, and **NO** otherwise:\n\n* A US court orders a company to pay >=$100M to claimants because of how they used data to train a large AI model, or \n* A US court fines a company >=$100M for breaking a law related to how they used data to train a large AI model.\n\nBoth of these will be interpreted broadly, but must in the ruling be explicitly about training - not about serving. For example, if a court fined YouTube for discriminating against some people by the nature of their recommendation algorithm, even though the source of the discrimination is likely in the training data, this would not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39538, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761839104.200466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.155 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761839104.200466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.155 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.845, 0.155 ], "means": [ 0.2583255383538432 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 5.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-06-10 19:54:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17408). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSince the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17408,\"question_id\":17408}}`" }, { "id": 39537, "title": "Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "short_title": "US housing prices increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "url_title": "US housing prices increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "slug": "us-housing-prices-increase-more-in-2025-compared-to-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:19.274946Z", "published_at": "2025-09-26T11:48:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T13:19:00.194716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:19.529801Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-26T11:48:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38914, "title": "Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:19.275346Z", "open_time": "2025-09-26T11:48:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T13:18:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31271). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe United States housing market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades. After recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, which was largely triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse, housing prices saw steady appreciation throughout the 2010s. This trend accelerated dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by historically low interest rates, limited housing inventory, and changing work patterns. Nominal house prices fell slightly at the end of 2022, but have been rising since.\n\nAccording to Zillow, the [Zillow Home Value Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-neural-zhvi-32128/)\n\n> is designed to capture the value of a typical property across the nation or the neighborhood, not just the homes that sold, and we do so by drawing information from the full distribution of homes in a given region.\n> \n> ZHVI measures monthly changes in property-level Zestimates, capturing both the level and appreciation of home values across a wide variety of geographies and housing types (e.g., all single-family homes in ZIP code 98101). This is how we focus on actual market price changes, and not changes in the kinds of markets or property types that sell from month to month.\n\nCheck the link for some details on their methodology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31271,\"question_id\":30916}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the [Zillow Home Values Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) (ZHVI) and specifically the \"ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Smoothed, Seasonally Adjusted(\\$)\" data type for \"Metro & U.S.\". It will resolve as **Yes** if the relative change of the ZHVI for the United States from November 2024 to November 2025 is greater than the relative change from November 2023 to November 2024, when adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "For example, the same question for 2024 vs 2023 would have resolved as **Yes** because\n\n1. The ZHVI for November 2022 was \\$339,428, for November 2023 it was \\$347,035, and for November 2024 it was \\$355,876.\n2. Adjusted for inflation using the [BLS CPI Inflation Calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm), we get the prices \\$359,702 (Nov 2022) and \\$356,576 (Nov 2023) in Nov 2024 USD.\n3. The ratio Nov2024 / Nov2023 is \\$355,876 / \\$356,576 = 0.998, greater than the ratio Nov2023 / Nov2022 which is \\$356,576 / \\$359,702 = 0.9913.\n\n***\n\n* If Zillow stops reporting the ZHVI or if the ZHVI substantially changes its methodology, this question will be **annulled**.\n* If the BLS CPI Inflation Calculator is not available, another month-level US CPI inflation calculator may be used.\n* The latest numbers for the ZHVI as of December 2025 will be used to resolve this question, including any revisions to the 2023 or 2024 estimates.", "post_id": 39537, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758892554.57588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758892554.57588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.357940736062912 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31271). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe United States housing market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades. After recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, which was largely triggered by the subprime mortgage collapse, housing prices saw steady appreciation throughout the 2010s. This trend accelerated dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by historically low interest rates, limited housing inventory, and changing work patterns. Nominal house prices fell slightly at the end of 2022, but have been rising since.\n\nAccording to Zillow, the [Zillow Home Value Index](https://www.zillow.com/research/methodology-neural-zhvi-32128/)\n\n> is designed to capture the value of a typical property across the nation or the neighborhood, not just the homes that sold, and we do so by drawing information from the full distribution of homes in a given region.\n> \n> ZHVI measures monthly changes in property-level Zestimates, capturing both the level and appreciation of home values across a wide variety of geographies and housing types (e.g., all single-family homes in ZIP code 98101). This is how we focus on actual market price changes, and not changes in the kinds of markets or property types that sell from month to month.\n\nCheck the link for some details on their methodology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31271,\"question_id\":30916}}`" }, { "id": 39536, "title": "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?", "short_title": "AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?", "url_title": "AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?", "slug": "ai-85-in-frontiermath-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:18.642777Z", "published_at": "2025-09-20T12:00:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T13:31:00.228283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:18.963418Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38913, "title": "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:18.643187Z", "open_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T13:30:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n\n The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39536, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758373470.630237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758373470.630237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.25806285385014804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013}}`" }, { "id": 39529, "title": "Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?", "short_title": "Will the S&P 500 Rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the S&P 500 Rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:14.024815Z", "published_at": "2025-10-19T12:03:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T13:34:00.282775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:14.277440Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-19T12:03:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38906, "title": "Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:14.025206Z", "open_time": "2025-10-19T12:03:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:33:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-30 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26721). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis question aims to predict the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the calendar year 2025. The S&P 500 is a widely-followed stock market index, representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Its performance is often used as a benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market and economy. This question will be resolved based on the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2024 compared to the last trading day of 2025.\n\nAccording to the NY Stock Exchange (NYSE), the last trading day of 2024 is [currently scheduled](https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars) for December 31, 2024, with the last trading day of 2025 being December 31, 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26721,\"question_id\":26721}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2025 is higher than the closing value on the last trading day of 2024. If the closing value on the last trading day of 2025 is equal to or lower than the closing value on the last trading day of 2024, this question will resolve to \"No.\"", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?p=%5EGSPC) will be used as the resolution source.", "post_id": 39529, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760880785.836256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.879 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760880785.836256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.879 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16000000000000003, 0.84 ], "means": [ 0.8016206152510036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 19.0, 5.0, 3.0, 5.0, 6.0, 5.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-30 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26721). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis question aims to predict the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the calendar year 2025. The S&P 500 is a widely-followed stock market index, representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Its performance is often used as a benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market and economy. This question will be resolved based on the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2024 compared to the last trading day of 2025.\n\nAccording to the NY Stock Exchange (NYSE), the last trading day of 2024 is [currently scheduled](https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars) for December 31, 2024, with the last trading day of 2025 being December 31, 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26721,\"question_id\":26721}}`" }, { "id": 39528, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)", "short_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "url_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "slug": "winner-of-next-labour-leadership-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:13.379369Z", "published_at": "2025-10-11T18:18:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T19:49:00.392605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:13.717394Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-11T18:18:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38905, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Wes Streeting)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:13.379808Z", "open_time": "2025-10-11T18:18:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T19:48:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11828}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Wes Streeting'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Labour Party leadership election following the election on April 4, 2020. All other candidates will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; more options may be added in the future.", "fine_print": "If the Labour party ceases to exist, or if the next Labour party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 39528, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760211432.178145, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.245 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760211432.178145, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19223710596347485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 8.0, 5.0, 2.0, 19.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11828}}`" }, { "id": 39525, "title": "Will the number of new F-1 visas issued by the US to students from China or India decrease by >10% in FY 2025? (China)", "short_title": "Will new F-1 visas issued in China or India decrease by >10% in FY2025?", "url_title": "Will new F-1 visas issued in China or India decrease by >10% in FY2025?", "slug": "will-new-f-1-visas-issued-in-china-or-india-decrease-by-10-in-fy2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:11.364988Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T17:53:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T19:24:00.277362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:11.786415Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:53:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38902, "title": "Will the number of new F-1 visas issued by the US to students from China or India decrease by >10% in FY 2025? (China)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:11.365400Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:53:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T19:23:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.85, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-13 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39113). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students:\n\n* 422,335 were from India.\n* 329,541 were from China. \n\nA substantial majority of international students in the US, especially those attending accredited colleges and universities, are authorized to enter and study in the US using the [F-1 visa](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/study/student-visa.html). \n\nIn past years, the number of students from India newly issued the visas have been as follows:\n\n| Fiscal year | F‑1 visas issued to Indian nationals |\n| ----------- | ------------------------------------ |\n| **FY 2024** | **86,067** |\n| **FY 2023** | **130,730** |\n| **FY 2022** | **115,115** |\n| **FY 2021** | **80,451** |\n| **FY 2020** | **15,323** |\n| **FY 2019** | **43,714** |\n\nThe numbers for students from mainland China have been as follows:\n\n| Fiscal year | F‑1 visas issued to Chinese nationals |\n| ----------- | ------------------------------------- |\n| **FY 2024** | **82,654** |\n| **FY 2023** | **85,950** |\n| **FY 2022** | **61,894** |\n| **FY 2021** | **90,310** |\n| **FY 2020** | **14,436** |\n| **FY 2019** | **105,775** |\n\nAccording to the [Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety has assessed a 76% chance of a >10% decline in F-1 visas for Chinese students and a 66% chance for Indian students, with the following reasoning:\n\n> As of May 2025, the number of new visas for FY2025 was [substantially lower than FY2024](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html) for both China and India. This decrease continued a trend from 2024, when new F-1 visa numbers dropped by [34% for India and 3.6% for China](https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/). In principle, this decline could be counterbalanced by a rebound during the summer, when the majority of new student visas are issued. But the lower visa numbers over the past year suggest that studying in the US has become less appealing. Actions by the Trump administration this year may accelerate this trend, making potential international students more cautious about studying in the US. Chinese students in particular may be wary in light of comments by the State Department about mass visa revocation for Chinese students.\n\n> On top of decreased demand, the [visa interview freeze](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/important-update-regarding-f-m-and-j-visa-interview-appointments/#:~:text=UPDATE%20\\(6/19/25,The%20pause%20is%20temporary.) from May 27-June 18 blocked new visas for a large fraction of the peak season, limiting the time window for a potential rebound. We expect this to lead to a decrease in processed applications, and a lower number of new F-1’s overall. [New rules for social media vetting](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/06/announcement-of-expanded-screening-and-vetting-for-visa-applicants) may decrease the acceptance rate, though we believe this will have a smaller effect than the reduction in the overall number of applications.\n\n> A few sources of uncertainty limit the confidence of our forecast. The number of F-1 visas is volatile from year to year, particularly for individual countries. If last year’s change reflects a temporary drop rather than a sustained trend, baseline volatility and regression to the mean could lead to higher F-1 issuance in 2025, counterbalancing the effects of the visa freeze and new social media vetting. Universities facing funding challenges may also be incentivized to accept more international students, who often pay more in tuition than US students.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39113,\"question_id\":38443}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'China'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** for the subquestions, according to the US State Department's [Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html) portal, as follows:\n\n* If the number of F-1 visas issued to Indian nationals is less than 77,460 for FY 2025.\n* If the number of F-1 visas issued to Chinese nationals (typically listed as \"China - mainland\" in data tables) is less than 74,389 for FY 2025.", "fine_print": "Scroll down to the \"Nonimmigrant Visa Issuances by Visa Class and by Nationality\" section at the resolution source. The expected file name, anticipated to be posted in January 2026 based on previous experience, will be *FY2025 NIV Detail Table (PDF)*. For example, the 2024 numbers can be accessed at [this PDF](https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/NIVDetailTables/FY24NIVDetailTable.pdf), with the F-1 visa numbers for China and India both on page 9 of 42, listed as 82,654 and 86,067, respectively.\n\nQuestion resolves according to the first numbers reported that are accessed by Metaculus; later revisions will not cause the question to be re-resolved.", "post_id": 39525, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757359064.550608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757359064.550608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7381296350649178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 4.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-13 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39113). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, the United States [hosted](https://x.com/CIS_org/status/1933204000129577288) a record 1,582,808 foreign students:\n\n* 422,335 were from India.\n* 329,541 were from China. \n\nA substantial majority of international students in the US, especially those attending accredited colleges and universities, are authorized to enter and study in the US using the [F-1 visa](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/study/student-visa.html). \n\nIn past years, the number of students from India newly issued the visas have been as follows:\n\n| Fiscal year | F‑1 visas issued to Indian nationals |\n| ----------- | ------------------------------------ |\n| **FY 2024** | **86,067** |\n| **FY 2023** | **130,730** |\n| **FY 2022** | **115,115** |\n| **FY 2021** | **80,451** |\n| **FY 2020** | **15,323** |\n| **FY 2019** | **43,714** |\n\nThe numbers for students from mainland China have been as follows:\n\n| Fiscal year | F‑1 visas issued to Chinese nationals |\n| ----------- | ------------------------------------- |\n| **FY 2024** | **82,654** |\n| **FY 2023** | **85,950** |\n| **FY 2022** | **61,894** |\n| **FY 2021** | **90,310** |\n| **FY 2020** | **14,436** |\n| **FY 2019** | **105,775** |\n\nAccording to the [Samotsvety Forecasting Group](https://samotsvety.com/p/international-students-in-the-us?utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web), an elite group of professional forecasters:\n\n> Recently, the United States has been changing its approach to immigration, generally favoring more protectionist and nativist rhetoric and policy. We have seen:\n\n> \\- High-profile visa revocations and deportations\n\n> \\- New policies creating extra hurdles for international students, such as social media vetting and temporary suspensions of visa issuance\n\n> \\- Increased funding and enforcement activities by immigration authorities (ICE)\n\n> \\- Arbitrary SEVP (student permit) revocations\n\nSamotsvety has assessed a 76% chance of a >10% decline in F-1 visas for Chinese students and a 66% chance for Indian students, with the following reasoning:\n\n> As of May 2025, the number of new visas for FY2025 was [substantially lower than FY2024](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html) for both China and India. This decrease continued a trend from 2024, when new F-1 visa numbers dropped by [34% for India and 3.6% for China](https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/). In principle, this decline could be counterbalanced by a rebound during the summer, when the majority of new student visas are issued. But the lower visa numbers over the past year suggest that studying in the US has become less appealing. Actions by the Trump administration this year may accelerate this trend, making potential international students more cautious about studying in the US. Chinese students in particular may be wary in light of comments by the State Department about mass visa revocation for Chinese students.\n\n> On top of decreased demand, the [visa interview freeze](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/important-update-regarding-f-m-and-j-visa-interview-appointments/#:~:text=UPDATE%20\\(6/19/25,The%20pause%20is%20temporary.) from May 27-June 18 blocked new visas for a large fraction of the peak season, limiting the time window for a potential rebound. We expect this to lead to a decrease in processed applications, and a lower number of new F-1’s overall. [New rules for social media vetting](https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/06/announcement-of-expanded-screening-and-vetting-for-visa-applicants) may decrease the acceptance rate, though we believe this will have a smaller effect than the reduction in the overall number of applications.\n\n> A few sources of uncertainty limit the confidence of our forecast. The number of F-1 visas is volatile from year to year, particularly for individual countries. If last year’s change reflects a temporary drop rather than a sustained trend, baseline volatility and regression to the mean could lead to higher F-1 issuance in 2025, counterbalancing the effects of the visa freeze and new social media vetting. Universities facing funding challenges may also be incentivized to accept more international students, who often pay more in tuition than US students.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39113,\"question_id\":38443}}`" }, { "id": 39523, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-china-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:10.147526Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T17:26:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T18:57:00.306939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:10.462372Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-21T17:26:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38900, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:10.147941Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T17:26:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:56:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-02-25 02:58:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19878). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19878,\"question_id\":19878}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate a robotics company with headquarters in China has manufactured more than a thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before the end of 2025.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 39523, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761072686.363879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761072686.363879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.44286080489344465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-02-25 02:58:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19878). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19878,\"question_id\":19878}}`" }, { "id": 39522, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "url_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "slug": "will-evs-be-10-of-new-car-sales-in-us-before-oct-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.452236Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.666486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.793561Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38899, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.452640Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31068). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31068,\"question_id\":30815}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) exceed 10% of total light-duty vehicle sales (LDV) in the United States for any complete month before the sales figures reported for October 2025, according to [Argonne National Laboratory's Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates - Historical Data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, for each month the figure for BEV will be divided by the figure for Total LDV, as shown in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wc76loC5c06K0gB9GAOK9R47rhlLwBFgxAI88YEZHko/edit?gid=2032607654#gid=2032607654). \n\nIf Argonne National Laboratory ceases to timely update its data, Admins may name a different resolution source, as long as its methodology and numbers are substantially similar.\n\nPlease note that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) are a separate category from Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV). This question specifically excludes the hybrids and is asking only about BEV as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales.", "post_id": 39522, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756948178.646548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756948178.646548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4442941176470589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31068). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies — from televisions to smartwatches — follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each country’s journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> “Once enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,” said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. “More EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31068,\"question_id\":30815}}`" }, { "id": 39520, "title": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?", "short_title": "Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?", "url_title": "Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?", "slug": "argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:07.690410Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T17:31:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T19:02:00.189235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:07.990813Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-17T17:31:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38897, "title": "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:07.690812Z", "open_time": "2025-10-17T17:31:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T19:01:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n\nThis question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.", "post_id": 39520, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760727345.419957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760727345.419957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5236265634116045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n\nHowever, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n\nAccording to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847}}`" }, { "id": 39518, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "short_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "url_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "slug": "netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-throughout-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.512669Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T11:21:00.319403Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.786079Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38895, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.513063Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31118). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31118,\"question_id\":30848}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. If Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister at any point during 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "As long as Netanyahu retains the official title of Prime Minister, this question will not resolve as **No**, even if he is suspended, has temporarily stepped back due to health or other reasons, or an acting Prime Minister has been appointed to fulfill his duties.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"temporarily\" is defined as Netanyahu resuming his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **No,** even if he officially retains the official title of Prime Minister. This 30 day period must complete before December 31, 2025, otherwise the question will resolve as **Yes** if he holds the office of Prime Minister of the State of Israel.", "post_id": 39518, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760613358.679795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760613358.679795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7849173152150838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 12.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31118). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31118,\"question_id\":30848}}`" }, { "id": 39515, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "short_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "url_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "slug": "livestock-antibiotics-sales-increased-by-05-in-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.420694Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:10:00.187810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.679625Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38892, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.421090Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:11:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31125). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31125,\"question_id\":30853}}`", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question draws on forthcoming 2024 data to align with the Future Perfect forecast.*\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 total kilograms of medically important antimicrobial drugs sold or distributed for use in food-producing animals in the US is at least 0.5% higher than the same number for 2023.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first report by the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine that includes the full numbers for 2024. If the CVM does not publish the relevant numbers before April 1, 2026, alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might be used, as long as they are roughly consistent with the previously released CVM numbers.\n* The relevant number for 2023 was 6,127,991 kg and could be found in CVM's [2023 Summary Report On Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals), II. Data on All Marketed Drugs (3), Table 2a, as the Subtotal of Medically Important drugs. If CVM, or an alternative credible source in case the CVM does not report these, shows a different number when data for 2024 are published, the updated number will be used.\n* If the 2023 number stays at 6,127,991 kg, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 number is at least 6,158,631 kg.", "post_id": 39515, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758009047.219709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.405 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758009047.219709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.405 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3398138835150902 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 11.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:11:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31125). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31125,\"question_id\":30853}}`" }, { "id": 39514, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "url_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "slug": "will-cuomo-adams-or-sliwa-drop-out-of-the-2025-mayoral-race", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:03.805888Z", "published_at": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T14:09:00.143332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.132827Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38891, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:03.806312Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-10 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39112). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39112,\"question_id\":38441}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2025, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa or anyone authorized to speak on their behalf (such as their campaigns) officially announce that they have suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended their campaigns in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election).  ", "fine_print": "A candidate deciding to return to the race, such as Ross Perot dropping out of the 1992 presidential election and then later [re-enterin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_1992_presidential_campaign#Re-entrance)g, will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nAn explicitly temporary suspension of a campaign, such as John McCain's 2008 \"[suspension](https://www.npr.org/2008/09/25/95038824/charting-mccains-suspended-campaign)\" of his campaign for US president, will not count unless it becomes indefinite.\n\nA dropped-out candidate need not be removed from NYC's electoral ballot; according to media reports ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/cuomo-mamdani-mayor-november-ballot)) the withdrawal deadline to be removed from the ballot has already expired. ", "post_id": 39514, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757252022.065093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757252022.065093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21531626279161686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 20.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-10 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39112). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39112,\"question_id\":38441}}`" }, { "id": 39511, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "short_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "url_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "slug": "transformers-as-lm-sota-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.082811Z", "published_at": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T21:34:00.160939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.429362Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38888, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.083224Z", "open_time": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-07-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4892,\"question_id\":4892}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\n\n> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\n\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n\nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n\n1. A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \n\n> language model \"state of the art\"\n\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\n\nOR\n\n2. [This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39511, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758833680.128528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758833680.128528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8279701868672384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 27.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-07-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4892,\"question_id\":4892}}`" } ] }
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