Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3600
{ "count": 6373, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3580", "results": [ { "id": 17580, "title": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "short_title": "Kremlin/Wagner Agreement Holds?", "url_title": "Kremlin/Wagner Agreement Holds?", "slug": "kremlinwagner-agreement-holds", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T20:07:09.135257Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.529521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17580, "title": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T20:07:09.135257Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T21:48:15.192132Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T21:48:15.192132Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine. \n\nAlexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, [asserted his role](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin) in brokering this ceasefire.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **No** if Yevgeny Prigozhin publicly states any of the following:\n\n- That Wagner forces will again mobilize within Russia with the goal of enacting change within Russian government.\n- Anything equivalent to \"the deal is off\"\n\nThe question also resolves **No** based on credible reports of Wagner Group mobilizations within Russia with a goal of enacting change within a Russian governmental entity.\n\nIf none of the above happen before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, the question resolves **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17580, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688156457.735548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688156457.735548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9793896556066098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0032274358995859785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03254781738325031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18411846033765483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018265949936623564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003131552283797652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023187389807455535, 0.03408466358784374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.918965926634064e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08124165070742276, 0.009203502793328242, 0.2524493019072064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032006191017783766, 0.0, 5.985619839723628e-05, 0.0845999215021197, 0.0005138982067109621, 0.003034309066835176, 0.0061671654046391, 0.02641416132402563, 0.004334653309980255, 0.05277791443358573, 0.046662386491371284, 0.0, 0.06218423112757955, 0.07363523400717728, 0.024823412047337734, 0.7905133597157292, 0.2437627726808703, 0.7393834569180702, 0.8291518747422879, 19.63223690095953 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.695363585221306, "coverage": 0.9985776541202706, "baseline_score": 84.54809943690327, "spot_peer_score": 6.749889336910813, "peer_archived_score": 9.695363585221306, "baseline_archived_score": 84.54809943690327, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.749889336910813 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688156457.755475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688156457.755475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0071223371256446955, 0.9928776628743553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 450, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine. \n\nAlexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, [asserted his role](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin) in brokering this ceasefire." }, { "id": 17571, "title": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "slug": "wagner-group-controls-moscow-by-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T14:23:38.965642Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.182431Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 219, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17571, "title": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T14:23:38.965642Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T15:52:16.635871Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T15:52:16.635871Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.\n\n> Prigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.\n\n> In response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for \"inciting an armed revolt\". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny\n\n> Putin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a \"mortal blow\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion))\n\nFrom [Jennifer Caferella](https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella) with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24<br /><br />-Wagner controls <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rostov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Rostov</a><br /><br />-<a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wagner</a> advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Moscow</a><br /><br />-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…</p>— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1672605342155284480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote>", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, any of the following sources state that the Wagner Group, or forces aligned with the Wagner Group, control any part of Moscow:\n\n- The Economist\n- The New York Times\n- Reuters\n- The Associated Press\n- The Guardian\n- The BBC\n- Al Jazeera\n- South China Morning Post\n- [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/)\n- [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/)", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, \"any part of Moscow\" means an area equivalent to 1 city block.\n- If there are reports of Wagner control of part of Moscow, the question resolves **Yes** unless those reports specifically state that the area of control is obviously smaller than a city block (e.g. a single building). For instance, if credible reports state Wagner forces are cornered in a single building, the question does not resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688166675.754166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688166675.754166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01207033859881016 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.394158662327836, 6.78849982807715, 0.13820205164652366, 0.023502547113193453, 9.796657350910948e-05, 0.061302586766252554, 4.33339679548759e-06, 0.006076728082896586, 0.0, 0.0017078861994838013, 0.0, 6.329929481696484e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362547479672106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11201434068758645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.5147065285270055e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04934975565422132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.114699619604851e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.764506038281904e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0170049364782247e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5389117847889089e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12609413780027612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036533585387301386 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.829223028977665, "coverage": 0.9996204764235258, "baseline_score": 96.55725702586706, "spot_peer_score": 22.255309155638383, "peer_archived_score": 8.829223028977665, "baseline_archived_score": 96.55725702586706, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.255309155638383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688166675.784794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688166675.784794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 219, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 524, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.\n\n> Prigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.\n\n> In response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for \"inciting an armed revolt\". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny\n\n> Putin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a \"mortal blow\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion))\n\nFrom [Jennifer Caferella](https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella) with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24<br /><br />-Wagner controls <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rostov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Rostov</a><br /><br />-<a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wagner</a> advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Moscow</a><br /><br />-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…</p>— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1672605342155284480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote>" }, { "id": 17569, "title": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Prigozhin leads Wagner on June 30, 2023?", "url_title": "Prigozhin leads Wagner on June 30, 2023?", "slug": "prigozhin-leads-wagner-on-june-30-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T00:41:08.458957Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.137956Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17569, "title": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T00:41:08.458957Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T15:04:54.983489Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T15:04:54.983489Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the \"evil\" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to \"March for Justice\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny))\n\nSome Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an [armed mutiny](https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup). Russian security services [called](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34) for Prigozhin's arrest.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, on June 30 at 7pm ET, Wikipedia lists Yevgeny Prigozhin as the [primary active leader of the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) AND Prigozhin is not in Russian custody.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147090.702034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147090.702034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9708935078954215 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02650278513103406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003389902834636595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04706143124907007, 0.0001615250781465044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013237715520918849, 0.0, 0.0018708537491927582, 0.00627706671076367, 0.0003294578190198636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015186642282819212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.002770195827676131, 0.08521805108287933, 0.0006420844392293363, 0.005190405871074167, 0.01641972249325137, 0.024797185653831804, 0.03904322339774103, 0.0, 0.1067436488518837, 0.012301797311731453, 0.0, 7.882431206593951e-05, 0.0, 0.008075000781306439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1372512433828844, 0.007783224494865335, 0.1315190964923738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1970376399871908, 0.006111534710645336, 0.15774280159063192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5156005099027082, 0.0, 0.6198489091920256, 0.11301084002370165, 0.0, 0.422815641397109, 0.6563232732899976, 1.0271676294359033, 1.0033398730315055, 15.458870103650332 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.163327347517146, "coverage": 0.9998899193188633, "baseline_score": 56.6236956494374, "spot_peer_score": 12.171178039162262, "peer_archived_score": 22.163327347517146, "baseline_archived_score": 56.6236956494374, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.171178039162262 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147090.72517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147090.72517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.014547753770022376, 0.9854522462299776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 507, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the \"evil\" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to \"March for Justice\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny))\n\nSome Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an [armed mutiny](https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup). Russian security services [called](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34) for Prigozhin's arrest." }, { "id": 17554, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "short_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Extended in July 2023?", "url_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Extended in July 2023?", "slug": "black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023", "author_id": 128451, "author_username": "Onikolenko", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-22T13:19:50.711597Z", "published_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.242453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 199, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17554, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-22T13:19:50.711597Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-05T06:35:02.519830Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-05T06:35:02.519830Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nAs July 18th approaches some have [speculated on the continuation of the deal](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-999-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-july-envoy-2023-06-22/):\n\n>Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Moscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.\n>\n>The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.\n>\n>Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.\n>\n>Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.\n>\n>“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 19, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended beyond the current end date of July 18, 2023. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the extension; if it is reported that the deal has been extended but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will still resolve as **Yes** even if the extension is reported to alter the [original terms](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/resources), so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being extended. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the situation is unclear.", "post_id": 17554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689631055.350168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689631055.350168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.058489294488722615 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.882884344865904, 11.390273282967215, 2.271006989528028, 1.7568812413710466, 0.11433453991398454, 1.5064239095772045, 0.5485779830548743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021225413872789332, 0.6372152927269646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009977318696934674, 0.11907469557707885, 0.0, 1.682355315882294e-05, 0.0, 0.006943152795693355, 0.00010460390517390767, 0.6923027503420459, 0.0, 2.976443319409988e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9242108325596365e-05, 0.0, 0.007710523089057737, 0.0051195812833981676, 0.0, 0.466108070523243, 0.00040018536164186143, 0.0, 0.31610168221829366, 0.0, 1.000010576962249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00878719080177634, 0.0, 0.004748982250895249, 0.00021244396578389607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001355707884799575, 0.00039391597186884115, 0.0, 4.610005846222644e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004236720841086483, 0.00029157270993357724, 0.0008755714424304616, 0.016440330493698977, 0.0, 0.0012176097024486127, 0.0013729106315652625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013839349549090924, 0.01558192890777613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006200164903528799, 0.009660753161124493, 0.010180459479371892, 0.3824557846699394, 0.00013788811921248815, 3.664653754303084e-05, 0.01601358973353601, 0.15152158259223067, 0.000125952372343032, 2.5321696803091698e-05, 0.0, 0.007503840552109004, 0.0004645216870983727, 7.81537674128247e-05, 0.00016672037078392207, 0.003037932003795276, 0.007751894681928811, 0.0, 0.00019534320677534585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038143873981652506, 0.004035761042330904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009040692211598578 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.815652600867802, "coverage": 0.9736166105546191, "baseline_score": -6.07889079253131, "spot_peer_score": 16.994402001992718, "peer_archived_score": 6.815652600867802, "baseline_archived_score": -6.07889079253131, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.994402001992718 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689592823.917259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689592823.917259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9604114078170173, 0.0395885921829827 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nAs July 18th approaches some have [speculated on the continuation of the deal](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-999-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-july-envoy-2023-06-22/):\n\n>Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Moscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.\n>\n>The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.\n>\n>Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.\n>\n>Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.\n>\n>“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday." }, { "id": 17548, "title": "Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in \"United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta\"?", "short_title": "Nauta more severe sentence than Trump?", "url_title": "Nauta more severe sentence than Trump?", "slug": "nauta-more-severe-sentence-than-trump", "author_id": 101938, "author_username": "JohnMcConnaughey", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-21T05:05:37.210463Z", "published_at": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.533492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17548, "title": "Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in \"United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta\"?", "created_at": "2023-06-21T05:05:37.210463Z", "open_time": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-10T21:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-10T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.\n\nThe case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.\n\nThe case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.\n\nBoth Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.\n\n-----\n\n[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump’s presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago. After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.\n\nAccording to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.\n\n[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case. \n\nPreviously she has [ruled in the former president’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search. Her ruling slowed down the government’s investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if before January 20, 2026, any of the following occur in the federal criminal case of *[United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump)*:\n\n1. Waltine Nauta receives a longer prison sentence than Donald Trump.\n2. Neither Trump nor Nauta receive a prison sentence, but Nauta receives a greater fine, longer probation, more time under house arrest, or more community service time than Trump.\n3.\tNauta receives a prison sentence, but Trump receives house arrest or other non-prison confinement, even if for a longer period of time.\n\nThe question is **annulled** if any of the following occur:\n\n1. \tBoth defendants are acquitted.\n2. The case is dismissed for both defendants.\n3. One defendant, (but not both), enters into a plea deal for a lighter sentence, or;\n4. Verdicts have not been issued for either Nauta or Trump.", "fine_print": "This question only considers the sentence, or lack thereof, in this case. A pardon, or commutation of the sentence for either defendant, does not affect the outcome. If the case *United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta* is split into multiple separate cases, then the outcome of each case will be added and compared. Other cases brought against either Donald Trump or Waltine Nauta will not be considered for the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 17548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718977292.322259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.432450570974278 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718977292.322259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.432450570974278 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5675494290257219, 0.432450570974278 ], "means": [ 0.4130291790531369 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2111639770944125, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1067464588544436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.15331133925621562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2467065163784336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721115695.035636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721115695.035636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6831941976339411, 0.3168058023660589 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.\n\nThe case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.\n\nThe case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.\n\nBoth Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.\n\n-----\n\n[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump’s presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago. After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.\n\nAccording to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.\n\n[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case. \n\nPreviously she has [ruled in the former president’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search. Her ruling slowed down the government’s investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision." }, { "id": 17547, "title": "Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "short_title": "Titan recovered intact and soon?", "url_title": "Titan recovered intact and soon?", "slug": "titan-recovered-intact-and-soon", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-21T01:56:19.253259Z", "published_at": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.886520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-21T02:16:44.260896Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17547, "title": "Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "created_at": "2023-06-21T01:56:19.253259Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. The submersible, designed to carry five people, was carrying an expedition of tourists to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if two credible media reports indicate the 'Titan' submersible has been recovered, intact, by noon ET on Thursday, June 22.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687453948.817595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687453948.817595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.008432736970972854 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.625983300922284, 6.353581139050375, 0.1581765313537833, 0.22866170606346983, 0.0, 0.4911420966263268, 0.0, 0.2193406282932918, 0.03223129051571264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004277460841020688, 0.0, 0.038983510779222394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0048567827149672465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.54769533170395, "coverage": 0.9246479675328216, "baseline_score": 88.3114352669064, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 9.54769533170395, "baseline_archived_score": 88.3114352669064, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687448299.413019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687448299.413019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. The submersible, designed to carry five people, was carrying an expedition of tourists to view the wreckage of RMS Titanic." }, { "id": 17533, "title": "Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Tesla market cap >$1 trillion by July 2023?", "url_title": "Tesla market cap >$1 trillion by July 2023?", "slug": "tesla-market-cap-1-trillion-by-july-2023", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-20T20:58:38.740861Z", "published_at": "2023-06-22T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.145800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-22T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17533, "title": "Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-20T20:58:38.740861Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-22T21:43:10.054891Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-22T21:43:10.054891Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tesla Inc., the renowned electric vehicle (EV) maker, has seen a steady uptrend in its stock value, with a multi-week streak resulting in a [131% increase in share value](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/) within the year 2023. This upward surge has elevated the company's market capitalization to over $850 billion.\n\nHowever, this current valuation still falls short of Tesla's all-time high in 2021, when the company hit a staggering market cap of over $1.2 trillion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) is greater than $1 trillion (USD) at any time between June 20, 2023 to July 1, 2023. \n\nData for market capitalization will come from [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/). If they do not report data for this full period, other credible sources like [YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/) may be used.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17533, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144905.241558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144905.241558, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006056611353883634 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.75766020929595, 4.108206194529541, 0.6375025129191879, 0.0005031558622977832, 1.1026273174264416, 0.05936383203421815, 0.003994758534254718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030642531387975404, 4.147015664478446e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000561451462017871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012496176344480865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000643313033333315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009420700898529783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.88576939976593, "coverage": 0.9996321470545673, "baseline_score": 98.3286558636485, "spot_peer_score": 4.303952747761064, "peer_archived_score": 5.88576939976593, "baseline_archived_score": 98.3286558636485, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.303952747761064 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144905.264252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144905.264252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tesla Inc., the renowned electric vehicle (EV) maker, has seen a steady uptrend in its stock value, with a multi-week streak resulting in a [131% increase in share value](https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/15/is-tesla-headed-back-to-trillion-dollar-market/) within the year 2023. This upward surge has elevated the company's market capitalization to over $850 billion.\n\nHowever, this current valuation still falls short of Tesla's all-time high in 2021, when the company hit a staggering market cap of over $1.2 trillion." }, { "id": 17530, "title": "Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Voicebox leaked by July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Voicebox leaked by July 1, 2023?", "slug": "voicebox-leaked-by-july-1-2023", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-20T16:13:17.108771Z", "published_at": "2023-06-21T20:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.033763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-21T20:19:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T16:16:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T20:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:54:26.600935Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17530, "title": "Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-20T16:13:17.108771Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T20:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-22T21:11:49.890901Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-22T21:11:49.890901Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T16:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-05T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.\n\nDespite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available \"because of the potential risks of misuse\". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was [leaked online within a week of it's release](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/8/23629362/meta-ai-language-model-llama-leak-online-misuse).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by July 1, 2023, credible media or tech industry reports or the official statements from Meta AI confirm that the Voicebox AI model or its code has been made publicly available, through a leak, hack, or something similar. The final determination of resolution will be made by Metaculus admins based on the evidence available at the time of resolution.\n\nHere \"publicly available\" means some people not affiliated with Meta or Meta's partners can access Voicebox. Need not be legal access if access is attained due to a leak, as long as that access is widely available.", "fine_print": "If the public thing is not called \"Voicebox\" but admins conclude it is Voicebox or directly derived from it, this still resolves positively.", "post_id": 17530, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144582.581585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144582.581585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03201033895728832 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.518110797343043, 7.185646544668233, 0.19438302630012322, 0.10813918602659756, 0.6266048346160128, 0.4208715691325723, 0.008832281468067818, 0.3745786180276855, 0.09467292063321112, 0.0, 0.28755588011094707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00910251771749428, 0.010028489695676875, 0.2410038138500024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03414921886677928, 0.0, 0.174353459002126, 0.027260261306647233, 0.0, 0.05361548124094313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06229464593224653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002626729901533664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002588766022538979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2665441514110732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.485127099449995, "coverage": 0.9998608007813612, "baseline_score": 81.24754828428078, "spot_peer_score": -0.5667670124755486, "peer_archived_score": 7.485127099449995, "baseline_archived_score": 81.24754828428078, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5667670124755486 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144582.601909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144582.601909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.\n\nDespite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available \"because of the potential risks of misuse\". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was [leaked online within a week of it's release](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/8/23629362/meta-ai-language-model-llama-leak-online-misuse)." }, { "id": 17520, "title": "Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?", "short_title": "White-collar job loss in US before 2026", "url_title": "White-collar job loss in US before 2026", "slug": "white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-18T21:19:19.730716Z", "published_at": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T14:08:51.497164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32620, "name": "US Employment Projections", "type": "community", "slug": "employment", "description": "Questions on US employment are organized according to the following categories: \n\n#### **High-level occupation projections**\n\n###### • [What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8936/us-workforce-as-it-specialists-in-2050/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be musicians or writers in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8929/us-workforce-writersmusicians-in-2050/)- 
• [How many people will work in these AI-automatable jobs in the US in May 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21427/employment-in-ai-automatable-jobs/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be in building maintenance or construction trades in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8937/us-workforce-in-construction-trades-in-2050/)- 
• [Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17520/white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be employed in transportation and material moving occupations in the following years? (e.g. truck drivers, taxi drivers, stockers and order fillers, etc.)](https://www.metaculus.com/c/employment/31361/us-transportation-employment-from-2025-to-2050/)\n\n#### **Detailed occupation projections**\n\n###### • [How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16746/number-of-software-developers-in-the-us/)- 
• [How many medical scientist jobs will there be in the US in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11494/number-of-medical-scientist-jobs-in-us-2030/#comment-243670)- 
• [How many epidemiologist jobs will there be in the US in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11495/number-of-epidemiologist-jobs-in-us-2030/)\n\n#### **Industry employment projections**\n\n###### • [How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14754/number-of-ev-industry-employees/)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 235855, "username": "2120eth", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ] }, "question": { "id": 17520, "title": "Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-18T21:19:19.730716Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-21T16:22:17.607000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-21T16:22:17.607000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As [The Economist reported in June 2023](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/15/ai-is-not-yet-killing-jobs), the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. Yet, as they write,\n\n> After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (llms). Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of Openai and colleagues say that “around 80% of the us workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of llms”.\n\nThe % in white-collar jobs was last below 60.0% briefly in 2007, and before that, in the late 1990s.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, in any quarter between Q2 2023 and Q4 2025 inclusive, BLS reports the percent of US employed persons who are employed in white-collar jobs is less than or equal to 60.0%, and **NO** otherwise. For the purposes of this question, \"white-collar jobs\" will be defined as the total found by summing the following BLS occupations:\n\n* Management, professional, and related occupations\n* Sales and office occupations\n\nResolution will be determined according to the percentages found from the [quarterly averages reported in the BLS Current Population Survey](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpsee_e13.htm), computed as the sum of the employment for the above occupations divided by the total for the quarter.", "fine_print": "* If the names of the occupations listed above are modified or changed Metaculus may determine the most appropriate new occupations or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* The occupations and resolution mechanism listed above will be used for resolution regardless of any methodological changes BLS implements.", "post_id": 17520, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761746920.668626, "end_time": 1763594656.152, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761746920.668626, "end_time": 1763594656.152, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10990573846242849 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9895895314747114, 0.9622959658046584, 0.0, 0.704478431100838, 0.0, 0.38213595752647456, 0.2010418409121184, 1.619807157125519, 0.7747625166761468, 0.0, 1.8963260462730909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289492.966843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289492.966843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9912169805999029, 0.008783019400097016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As [The Economist reported in June 2023](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/15/ai-is-not-yet-killing-jobs), the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. Yet, as they write,\n\n> After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (llms). Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of Openai and colleagues say that “around 80% of the us workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of llms”.\n\nThe % in white-collar jobs was last below 60.0% briefly in 2007, and before that, in the late 1990s." }, { "id": 17519, "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?", "short_title": "UK housing market crash before July 2025?", "url_title": "UK housing market crash before July 2025?", "slug": "uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2025", "author_id": 121120, "author_username": "sircaesar", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-18T16:45:48.083849Z", "published_at": "2023-06-22T16:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.377802Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-22T16:51:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-12T13:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17519, "title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-18T16:45:48.083849Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T16:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T16:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-12T13:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-12T13:43:49.634358Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is £372,812.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than £260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.", "fine_print": "The question is annulled if Rightmove changes the Rightmove House Price Index methodology, such that the June 2023 value is no longer within 5% of £260,968.", "post_id": 17519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751236067.309589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751236067.309589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00636306086159191 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.232199256128293, 0.4662906743234686, 1.0255383740101205, 0.031202770026994876, 0.5220849573687687, 0.2996653629162862, 0.0, 0.107813443035494, 0.00279130310708259, 6.270444297244818e-05, 0.006107444542975269, 0.0006359100333188915, 0.00026717985576411174, 0.0, 0.0011092236688044275, 0.0, 0.023544217695779756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158319905362912, 0.07331130711160073, 0.05687902834787789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022552317107906307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018032236332332975, 0.0, 0.000943818938593971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007369602243589552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046332664677561735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000390278048776368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016053113319600574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017044834789565235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.46356272049391, "peer_score": 14.106733937791187, "coverage": 0.9999528564042619, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999528564042619, "spot_peer_score": 27.47375497342422, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 92.46356272049391, "peer_archived_score": 14.106733937791187, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.47375497342422, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289892.172157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289892.172157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 284, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is £372,812." }, { "id": 17517, "title": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?", "short_title": "Microsoft Acquires Activision Blizzard in 23?", "url_title": "Microsoft Acquires Activision Blizzard in 23?", "slug": "microsoft-acquires-activision-blizzard-in-23", "author_id": 148245, "author_username": "NahtAnAI", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-18T03:39:20.172326Z", "published_at": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.267839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17517, "title": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-18T03:39:20.172326Z", "open_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-03T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-03T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. \n\nAs of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [filed a lawsuit](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/video-games/ftc-files-block-microsofts-activision-acquisition-deadline-approaches-rcna88966) on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. This development is the latest in a series of antitrust challenges to the merger.\n\nThis is the [link to the merger agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm), signed by Microsoft and Activision Blizzard.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** based on a Microsoft press release stating that it has acquired Activision Blizzard. It resolves as **No** immediately upon an announcement by Microsoft that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed by December 31, 2023, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The [merger contract](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm)", "post_id": 17517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697205867.070937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697205867.070937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9486858904741211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006731217591434027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044483911207012384, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032507148338583335, 0.09133304969971341, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.0, 0.00230644805578227, 0.0, 0.6536807929964921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02958413324404225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046843471097372705, 0.12436328158297608, 0.006042445282083602, 0.6971043718793803, 0.012792465124422179, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5638537408408428, 0.0, 1.074936175977055, 0.017820921846768534, 0.0, 2.8202103089977695, 0.015999109858631472, 0.7702637789587246, 0.6854720015517448, 8.1349784915446 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.282449780803108, "coverage": 0.5673643715613274, "baseline_score": 45.05880554078268, "spot_peer_score": 17.644841215667086, "peer_archived_score": 7.282449780803108, "baseline_archived_score": 45.05880554078268, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.644841215667086 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697134416.293158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697134416.293158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017792590643697537, 0.9822074093563025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. \n\nAs of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [filed a lawsuit](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/video-games/ftc-files-block-microsofts-activision-acquisition-deadline-approaches-rcna88966) on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. This development is the latest in a series of antitrust challenges to the merger.\n\nThis is the [link to the merger agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm), signed by Microsoft and Activision Blizzard." }, { "id": 17516, "title": "Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?", "short_title": "China wins 2023 International Math Olympiad?", "url_title": "China wins 2023 International Math Olympiad?", "slug": "china-wins-2023-international-math-olympiad", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-17T21:01:57.008000Z", "published_at": "2023-06-20T16:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.174642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-20T16:19:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-12T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-13T18:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-13T18:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T16:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17516, "title": "Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?", "created_at": "2023-06-17T21:01:57.008000Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T16:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-22T16:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-22T16:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-13T18:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-13T18:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-13T18:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-12T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-12T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://imo2023.jp/en/) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd. \n\nThe 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.\n\n> The competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. [(Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Mathematical_Olympiad)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if China has the most points or is tied for the highest point total at the end of the 2023 International Math Olympiad, as reported on the IMO [website](imo-official.org).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689173434.529413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689173434.529413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7643110168863484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 1.0033024326227087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5163362132374755, 0.7287651222345652, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.05092351375560071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.824607941722288, "coverage": 0.9992428261778421, "baseline_score": 62.315830815696515, "spot_peer_score": 23.52487891895091, "peer_archived_score": 3.824607941722288, "baseline_archived_score": 62.315830815696515, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.52487891895091 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689173434.552332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689173434.552332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22933528852327212, 0.7706647114767279 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://imo2023.jp/en/) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd. \n\nThe 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.\n\n> The competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. [(Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Mathematical_Olympiad)" }, { "id": 17508, "title": "Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?", "short_title": "Ireland Abandons Neutrality before 2030?", "url_title": "Ireland Abandons Neutrality before 2030?", "slug": "ireland-abandons-neutrality-before-2030", "author_id": 146248, "author_username": "GOLDEN-BLUE", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-17T08:44:34.534876Z", "published_at": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T10:28:07.671090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17508, "title": "Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-06-17T08:44:34.534876Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T16:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T16:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Irish neutrality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality) is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, [Ireland maintained its neutral stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(Ireland)), showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.\n\nHowever, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and [Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift](https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/18/public-divided-on-nato-membership-survey-finds/). Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at any time before midnight UTC on 1 Jan 2030, any of the following occur:\n\n- The government of the \"Republic of Ireland\" (Ireland) makes a public declaration that Ireland is no longer militarily neutral;\n- Ireland joins a military alliance such as NATO; or\n- Ireland is directly involved in a military conflict with >=1000 deaths, except as part of a United Nations peacekeeping force (e.g. UNMIK) or as the defender against military aggression as reported by >=3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) originating from states/organisations uninvolved with the conflict.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763116077.16818, "end_time": 1766996664.801928, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763116077.16818, "end_time": 1766996664.801928, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23730803531849212 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.6218225528634779, 0.0, 1.2973358814830647, 0.0, 0.0, 2.035046546992856, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289036.274801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289036.274801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9288054836350031, 0.0711945163649969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Irish neutrality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality) is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, [Ireland maintained its neutral stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(Ireland)), showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.\n\nHowever, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and [Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift](https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/18/public-divided-on-nato-membership-survey-finds/). Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically." }, { "id": 17498, "title": "Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?", "short_title": "Greece vs. Turkey War", "url_title": "Greece vs. Turkey War", "slug": "greece-vs-turkey-war", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-16T02:13:47.078192Z", "published_at": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:59:20.949452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17498, "title": "Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-06-16T02:13:47.078192Z", "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T12:57:22.596006Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T12:57:22.596006Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Greece and Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Turkey_relations) have a long history of hostilities between each other. Greece, which was once under the rule of the Ottoman empire, only gained its independence in the 1820s. Since then, tensions have generally been high between the two nations and have resulted in military conflicts in the past, such as the Balkan wars, Greco-Turkish wars, and Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Currently, the [Aegean sea dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute) is at the center of Greco-Turkish tensions, with Turkey asserting that the Greek military presence on certain Aegean islands violates the 1923 [Treaty of Lausanne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lausanne). In response, Turkey has conducted numerous air sorties into Greek airspace, and has disputed Greek and Cypriot claims over their exclusive economic zones.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 deaths in Greece, Turkey, and/or Cyprus as a result of state-based violence between these nations within a one-year period prior to the resolution date. For the purpose of this question, the [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus) will be regarded as if it were part of Turkey. If such a conflict begins less than one year prior to the resolution date, deaths which occur after that date will not be counted. If this does not occur before 12 AM on January 1, 2035, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761501549.967999, "end_time": 1766679041.848289, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761501549.967999, "end_time": 1766679041.848289, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.03354622100080369 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2387745119184577, 3.217277642202411, 2.22093952295909, 2.490838036584176, 0.4931122774661667, 2.434728698798244, 1.0285813782760327, 0.05630936737947011, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.08915094763644647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.07392302493911837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09930252898021946, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289290.301275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289290.301275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9950029682852851, 0.004997031714714905 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Greece and Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Turkey_relations) have a long history of hostilities between each other. Greece, which was once under the rule of the Ottoman empire, only gained its independence in the 1820s. Since then, tensions have generally been high between the two nations and have resulted in military conflicts in the past, such as the Balkan wars, Greco-Turkish wars, and Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Currently, the [Aegean sea dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute) is at the center of Greco-Turkish tensions, with Turkey asserting that the Greek military presence on certain Aegean islands violates the 1923 [Treaty of Lausanne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lausanne). In response, Turkey has conducted numerous air sorties into Greek airspace, and has disputed Greek and Cypriot claims over their exclusive economic zones." }, { "id": 17470, "title": "Will voter turnout for the 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala increase from the 2019 rates?", "short_title": "2023 Guatemalan Turnout Increase?", "url_title": "2023 Guatemalan Turnout Increase?", "slug": "2023-guatemalan-turnout-increase", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:13:19.927187Z", "published_at": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.398125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17470, "title": "Will voter turnout for the 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala increase from the 2019 rates?", "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:13:19.927187Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-17T14:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-17T14:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Guatemala gears up for the 2023 Presidential Election, voters will be faced with a diverse field of nearly two dozen candidates looking to replace President Alejandro Giammattei. Polls suggest a divided electorate with no clear frontrunner. The three leading candidates in the polls are former diplomat and Congressman Edmond Mulet of Cabal, ex-legislator Zury Ríos of Valor, and two-time presidential runner-up and former First Lady Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope. ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))\n\nHowever, the choices for voters do not include three potential candidates whose applications were rejected by the Supreme Court earlier this year, with Carlos Pineda's opposition campaign [suspended just last month](https://apnews.com/article/guatemala-elections-carlos-pineda-df6ee50218f10b5fc8398a7531ea2d39) after gaining popularity.\n\nThe lack of democratic choice has led to [reports of disillusionment](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/who-has-the-edge-in-guatemalas-presidential-race/) and could affect voter turnout.\n\n\"Turnout in the past 11 elections averaged 57 percent and hit 62 percent in the 2019 first-round presidential vote.\" ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the voter turnout rate reported by ElectionGuide by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems for the June 25, 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala is greater than [62.16%](https://www.electionguide.org/countries/id/90/); the turnout rate reported for the 2019 presidential elections. The rate is based on the first-round vote.", "fine_print": "If no turnout rate is reported by July 1st, 2023, this question will be annulled so as to be excluded from tournament results.", "post_id": 17470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687481416.273885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687481416.273885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3378569710865073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.401381885905608, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3564652606676009, 0.07805035281635142, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.5564643069414512, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687506203.322959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687506203.322959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8879373131651213, 0.11206268683487874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As Guatemala gears up for the 2023 Presidential Election, voters will be faced with a diverse field of nearly two dozen candidates looking to replace President Alejandro Giammattei. Polls suggest a divided electorate with no clear frontrunner. The three leading candidates in the polls are former diplomat and Congressman Edmond Mulet of Cabal, ex-legislator Zury Ríos of Valor, and two-time presidential runner-up and former First Lady Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope. ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))\n\nHowever, the choices for voters do not include three potential candidates whose applications were rejected by the Supreme Court earlier this year, with Carlos Pineda's opposition campaign [suspended just last month](https://apnews.com/article/guatemala-elections-carlos-pineda-df6ee50218f10b5fc8398a7531ea2d39) after gaining popularity.\n\nThe lack of democratic choice has led to [reports of disillusionment](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/who-has-the-edge-in-guatemalas-presidential-race/) and could affect voter turnout.\n\n\"Turnout in the past 11 elections averaged 57 percent and hit 62 percent in the 2019 first-round presidential vote.\" ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))" }, { "id": 17469, "title": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Reddit API Pricing Change Before July 1?", "url_title": "Reddit API Pricing Change Before July 1?", "slug": "reddit-api-pricing-change-before-july-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:01:36.022761Z", "published_at": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.646544Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17469, "title": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:01:36.022761Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-16T11:32:26.254395Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-16T11:32:26.254395Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This [led to an outcry](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.\n\nThe developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, [leading to a coordinated protest](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) involving [more than 8,000 Reddit communities](https://reddark.untone.uk/), including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.\n\nReddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has [remained resolute](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/9/23755640/reddit-api-changes-apps-apollo-shut-down-ama-spez-steve-huffman) regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an [Ask Me Anything (AMA) session](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's [recent layoffs](https://news.yahoo.com/reddit-laying-off-5-workforce-210002199.html) and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.\n\n*Background co-written with ChatGPT.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced [data API fees](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:\n\n* That they will charge anything other than \"$0.24 per 1K API calls\" or an equivalent amount.\n* Any change to their threshold for free API usage of \"100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication\".\n* That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.\n\nOther rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may **annul** the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688159113.590374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688159113.590374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015288522674587983 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.339418604877951, 6.673435558047636, 1.3986559054320364, 0.0, 0.5754128625663821, 0.4595833857422139, 0.5103060177204166, 0.10462556952336086, 0.01936531092725104, 0.034166571748472256, 0.06652283587598916, 0.0022076100250565805, 0.01072112851880902, 0.021381004391399547, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.006274330055098322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11177836887657405, 0.037350175802999215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005367069401959898, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015789022061289532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.814975247322812, "coverage": 0.9999615206138136, "baseline_score": 76.52069297830573, "spot_peer_score": 20.24754634281352, "peer_archived_score": 9.814975247322812, "baseline_archived_score": 76.52069297830573, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.24754634281352 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688159113.617879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688159113.617879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993811808701115, 0.000618819129888474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This [led to an outcry](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.\n\nThe developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, [leading to a coordinated protest](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) involving [more than 8,000 Reddit communities](https://reddark.untone.uk/), including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.\n\nReddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has [remained resolute](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/9/23755640/reddit-api-changes-apps-apollo-shut-down-ama-spez-steve-huffman) regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an [Ask Me Anything (AMA) session](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's [recent layoffs](https://news.yahoo.com/reddit-laying-off-5-workforce-210002199.html) and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.\n\n*Background co-written with ChatGPT.*" }, { "id": 17446, "title": "Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?", "short_title": "Hybrid and remote work in 2025?", "url_title": "Hybrid and remote work in 2025?", "slug": "hybrid-and-remote-work-in-2025", "author_id": 147104, "author_username": "sspadoni", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-11T18:42:46.518764Z", "published_at": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.619888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T19:31:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17446, "title": "Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T18:42:46.518764Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-19T14:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-19T14:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T19:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-31T19:36:30.518373Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Today, many companies offer remote work from home or part-time hybrid work from home ([Fortune](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidhMXn67v_AhXGk4kEHUSbBOUQFnoECB4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F05%2F09%2Fhybrid-work-becoming-norm-bosses-workers%2F&usg=AOvVaw3mQbAQ1djZC1ah_TiKenIK)) Following the Covid 19 pandemic, many large companies has continued to offer fully remote or part-time hybrid remote work options.\n\nThe Flex Index tracks office requirements for nearly 4,000 companies. As of [Q2, 2023](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#8), 28% of companies tracked are \"fully flexible,\" and an additional 30% are \"structured hybrid.\"\n\n| Office Requirements | % of Flex Index Companies | Category | \n|-----|----------|-----------|\n|Fully Remote | 7% | Fully Flexible |\n|Employee's Choice | 21% | Fully Flexible |\n|Minimum Days / Week | 18% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Specific Days / Week | 6% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum & Specific Days | 3% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum % of Time | 2% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Full Time In Office | 42% | Full Time In Office |\n\nAccording to the Flex Index:\n\n> The percentage of US companies that are Full Time In Office dropped from 49% in Q1 2023 to 42% in Q2 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the majority of companies in the [Flex Index](https://www.flex.scoopforwork.com/companies) offer \"fully flexible\" or \"structured hybrid\" work options, as reported in the first \"[Flex Report](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#1)\" for 2025.", "fine_print": "If no Flex Report or similar report is issued by Scoop in 2025, the question will be annulled.\n\nThe first Flex Report for 2025 is expected to be the Q1 2025 Flex Report, but if Scoop publishes the report on a different cadence (for instance, an annual report), the question will resolve based on the first report covering 2025 in that cadence.", "post_id": 17446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743105455.427432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743105455.427432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.760160755635055 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7517525441979407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 1.3023063220827358, 0.0978269360296038, 1.6372422406243536, 0.5854149758062843, 0.0, 1.7672513083928625, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1999907045575855, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6854157086790326, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8980219979843838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.97897620305604, "peer_score": 1.9175774192712383, "coverage": 0.9999322927215389, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999322927215389, "spot_peer_score": -10.539811212386917, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 46.97897620305604, "peer_archived_score": 1.9175774192712383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.539811212386917, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289677.676362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289677.676362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2680815155466578, 0.7319184844533422 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Today, many companies offer remote work from home or part-time hybrid work from home ([Fortune](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidhMXn67v_AhXGk4kEHUSbBOUQFnoECB4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F05%2F09%2Fhybrid-work-becoming-norm-bosses-workers%2F&usg=AOvVaw3mQbAQ1djZC1ah_TiKenIK)) Following the Covid 19 pandemic, many large companies has continued to offer fully remote or part-time hybrid remote work options.\n\nThe Flex Index tracks office requirements for nearly 4,000 companies. As of [Q2, 2023](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#8), 28% of companies tracked are \"fully flexible,\" and an additional 30% are \"structured hybrid.\"\n\n| Office Requirements | % of Flex Index Companies | Category | \n|-----|----------|-----------|\n|Fully Remote | 7% | Fully Flexible |\n|Employee's Choice | 21% | Fully Flexible |\n|Minimum Days / Week | 18% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Specific Days / Week | 6% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum & Specific Days | 3% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum % of Time | 2% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Full Time In Office | 42% | Full Time In Office |\n\nAccording to the Flex Index:\n\n> The percentage of US companies that are Full Time In Office dropped from 49% in Q1 2023 to 42% in Q2 2023." }, { "id": 17443, "title": "Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "5x less GPT hallucination by June 30, 2025", "url_title": "5x less GPT hallucination by June 30, 2025", "slug": "5x-less-gpt-hallucination-by-june-30-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T16:17:57.585018Z", "published_at": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.566288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T00:12:29.877469Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17443, "title": "Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T16:17:57.585018Z", "open_time": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-14T12:44:06.041000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-14T12:44:06.041000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-19T18:24:48.884289Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that \"LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.\" He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar was way too low - current accuracy is ~75% or ~59% depending on the benchmark.\n\nThe [GPT-4 paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf), in section 5 on \"Limitations\", describes the problem of hallucinations, i.e. producing seemingly-reasonable text that is factually incorrect.\n\nGPT-4 uses two evals for factuality. One is an internal OpenAI set of \"adversarially-designed factuality evaluations\", Figure 6, on which GPT-4 scored ~75% across 9 domains, compared to ~55% for GPT-3.5.\n\nThe other is a public benchmark, TruthfulQA, which \"tests the model’s ability to separate fact from an adversarially-selected set of incorrect statements\", in Figure 7, on which GPT-4 scored ~59%, compared to ~47% for GPT-3.5-turbo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2025, OpenAI releases an LLM product or API that claims it scores >=95% on its internal factual eval, _OR_ >= 92% on TruthfulQA, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"LLM product or API\" here will be interpreted broadly. For example, if the system that reaches this eval does so by first generating LLM output, and then subsequently verifying that output before showing it to users or returning it in the API, that would qualify.\n\n\"Releases\" means the product or API must be available to the public in some capacity. A limited beta suffices as long as third party users can verify the claims OpenAI makes. A paper alone, or a model without an interface or API, are not sufficient.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17443, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751302422.30745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751302422.30745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.18723848842879698 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0169570718930754, 0.0, 1.939181932879249, 0.4543454582350361, 0.0, 1.4079583975732062, 0.34239276344906866, 0.0, 0.5577739462638029, 0.0, 3.742644284672452, 0.0, 0.25493404373763123, 0.0, 0.4428737128754306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4752119315139325, 0.5212472552187034, 0.0, 0.7065915762296371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27911442493934324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31130818077712485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252827702246184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786676606165154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18722490586019797, 0.0038854741463503957, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42624572320835036, 0.0, 0.1470125282415746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5310696293510572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07338944213225126, 0.0, 0.008634060160896012, 0.0, 0.014145727934610995, 0.04978706836786394, 0.07317984826329925, 0.0960250916311845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016130931261017813, 0.060576540743882155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10564122008794659 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -85.72950926027278, "peer_score": 14.943781920060763, "coverage": 0.9997172171881163, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997172171881163, "spot_peer_score": 44.662387389041605, "spot_baseline_score": 45.41758931858021, "baseline_archived_score": -85.72950926027278, "peer_archived_score": 14.943781920060763, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.662387389041605, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.41758931858021 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288807.229629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288807.229629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3320359546105236, 0.6679640453894764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that \"LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.\" He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar was way too low - current accuracy is ~75% or ~59% depending on the benchmark.\n\nThe [GPT-4 paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf), in section 5 on \"Limitations\", describes the problem of hallucinations, i.e. producing seemingly-reasonable text that is factually incorrect.\n\nGPT-4 uses two evals for factuality. One is an internal OpenAI set of \"adversarially-designed factuality evaluations\", Figure 6, on which GPT-4 scored ~75% across 9 domains, compared to ~55% for GPT-3.5.\n\nThe other is a public benchmark, TruthfulQA, which \"tests the model’s ability to separate fact from an adversarially-selected set of incorrect statements\", in Figure 7, on which GPT-4 scored ~59%, compared to ~47% for GPT-3.5-turbo." }, { "id": 17434, "title": "Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?", "short_title": "AI Bust by End of 2025", "url_title": "AI Bust by End of 2025", "slug": "ai-bust-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 113177, "author_username": "clearthis", "coauthors": [ { "id": 136726, "username": "Caracoa" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:10:20.450851Z", "published_at": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.151437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17434, "title": "Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:10:20.450851Z", "open_time": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-02T17:06:14.102972Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-02T17:06:14.102972Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The term \"AI Winter\" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an \"AI Bust\" or \"AI Winter\" by the end of 2025.\n\nThe indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if at least two out of the three following criteria are met by the end of 2025:\n\n- \"AI Investment\": Data from the \"Year-over-year Private Investment in AI\" from the [AI Index Report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in nominal dollars in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Publications\": Data from the \"Total Number of AI Publications\" from the [AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Google Trends\": The worldwide average Google Trends score (out of 100) for the keyword “artificial intelligence” in 2024 is within 5 points of the average score from January 2004 to December 2020 – with the range set from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025. \n\nIn the event the AI Index report is no longer available, comparable sources of data will be used for assessment. In the case of disputed or unclear data, the resolution of this question may be postponed until reliable data becomes available.", "fine_print": "To calculate the Google Trends score, Metaculus two different Metaculus admins, residing in different countries will:\n\n1. Search for \"Artificial Intelligence\", as a search term, at [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-01-01%202023-06-30&q=Artificial%20intelligence&hl=en)\n2. Set the date range from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025 and the location to \"Worldwide\" \n3. Download the data\n4. From this dataset:\n - Calculate the mean Google Trends score for January 2004 through December 2020\n - Calculate the mean Google Trends score for January 2024 through December 2024\n5. The criteria is met if both admins find the mean for 2024 is within 5 points of the mean for 2004 through 2020.", "post_id": 17434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757096810.061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757096810.061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03554760925750117 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.55001919266604, 5.378983770015392, 1.831503054944007, 0.2899408957523977, 0.2584387699231883, 0.7033067974542367, 0.036249318693393935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1984257194871908, 0.07254409778469167, 0.0, 0.00017334026632215326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023921722330137264, 0.00028694015936094096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1401506214366688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02160422630611479, 0.0, 0.0185148788500146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.336309559322703e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339650608864187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7461714294025442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01044791386579032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004551470800426355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289848.915545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289848.915545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.999419964570499, 0.0005800354295010607 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The term \"AI Winter\" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an \"AI Bust\" or \"AI Winter\" by the end of 2025.\n\nThe indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively." }, { "id": 17432, "title": "Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?", "short_title": "AI Solves Millennium Problem before July 2025", "url_title": "AI Solves Millennium Problem before July 2025", "slug": "ai-solves-millennium-problem-before-july-2025", "author_id": 113177, "author_username": "clearthis", "coauthors": [ { "id": 136726, "username": "Caracoa" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:02:04.421586Z", "published_at": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.821239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T12:36:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T10:57:52.398595Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T10:57:52.398595Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17432, "title": "Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:02:04.421586Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-22T15:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-22T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T12:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-22T13:26:04.931234Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.\n\nAs of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.\n\nThis question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a Millennium Prize Problem is solved by an AI.\n\nThe question will resolve upon announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or when at least 2 reputable papers (e.g., on arXiv or in peer-reviewed journals) show a correct solution. If the solution is disputed or inconclusive, resolution may be postponed until a consensus is reached.\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if most of the major elements of the solution were primarily discovered by the AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n\n- Creating the system\n- Feeding the system with previously established knowledge\n- Stating the problem in a form understandable to the AI\n- Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans\n- Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution.\n\nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750958573.723387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750958573.723387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015224063976554228 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.229315500636979, 2.0014949119162373, 0.75901949692707, 0.05529962581368988, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.028803157970734503, 0.9840349739284768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.6916087364498618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16474672734003346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025944903269425626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.64317528054617, "peer_score": 4.562932087400533, "coverage": 0.9999830802330169, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999830802330169, "spot_peer_score": 8.59621186832426, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.64317528054617, "peer_archived_score": 4.562932087400533, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.59621186832426, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288759.904462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288759.904462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.\n\nAs of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.\n\nThis question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025." } ] }
