Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3600
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3580", "results": [ { "id": 13509, "title": "Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?", "short_title": "Any country Total Fertility <0.5 before 2053", "url_title": "Any country Total Fertility <0.5 before 2053", "slug": "any-country-total-fertility-05-before-2053", "author_id": 121787, "author_username": "trillionage", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-09T10:01:56.273253Z", "published_at": "2022-11-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.565808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-11-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13509, "title": "Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?", "created_at": "2022-11-09T10:01:56.273253Z", "open_time": "2022-11-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-21T02:53:07.715503Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-21T02:53:07.715503Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2052-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Total Fertility Rate](https://data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.htm) is a statistical calculation that in concept corresponds roughly to the average number of children had per woman per lifetime. In the absence of migration, a population in steady equilibrium would have a TFR of just over 2, perhaps 2.1.\n\nThe United Nation's (UN) World Population Prospects (WPP) - which necessarily incorporates TFR forecasting to make accurate predictions - is a key resource drawn upon for making informed decisions, that has been ongoing since 1992, with updates/revisions every 2-3 years. In recent editions, the modelling has split into three components. Phase I, Phase II and Phase III. \n\nPhase I is the pre-demographic tranisiton. Usually high fertility (>7 TFR) and child mortality is observed. The UN does not model this stage (except for imputation). Phase II is what is usually described as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) where a country declines in TFR, mortality and increases life expectancy until TFR declines below 2.1, and there's an increase in TFR for more than two consectutive years (following UN's modelling definition). A country reaching this criteria would then be designated as Phase III. As of 2022 48 countries have made it to Phase III.\n\nIt has been noted in the recent and subsequent UN WPP methodologies [(2022)](https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf) that Phase III countries usually increase in fertility.\n\n> A long-term assumption of a fertility increase in low-fertility countries (phase III) is supported by the experience of many countries in Europe and East Asia (Goldstein and others, 2009; Caltabiano and others, 2009; Myrskyla and others, 2009; Sobotka, 2011; Bongaarts and Sobotka, 2012; Myrskylä and others, 2013; Sobotka and Beaujouan, 2014). \n\nHowever...\n\n>However, such an increase is not universal (Billari, 2018; Reher, 2019). For countries that have experienced extended periods of low fertility with no empirical indication of an increase in fertility, fertility was projected to continue at low levels over the near future.\n\nThis wasn't always admitted in previous WPP, and was a point of critique among others that argued the WPP was systemically overestimating North East Asian fertility.\n\nFrom [Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations (May, 2014)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262452418_Bayesian_Population_Projections_for_the_United_Nations)\n\n>Overall, the new projections were well received. However, there was one critique, relating not to the statistical method, but to the assumption in the model for TFR in Phase III that asymptotically TFR oscillates around the approximate replacement rate of 2.1, namely, that µ= 2.1 in (6). Basten, Coleman and Gu (2012) argued that the UN’s assumption of an eventual recovery of fertility toward replacement is not justified for five advanced East Asian economies (Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan). They pointed out that the national statistical agencies of these countries project lower fertility rates than does the UN, that the relevant scientific literature does not suggest an increase in fertility in the short term, that a recent unpublished survey of experts concluded that fertility would not increase as markedly as the UN predicts, and that current evidence about fertility intentions does not suggest an immediate appetite for more children in these countries.\n\nIn retrospect; the critics were correct. The fertility from the mentioned countries has continued to decline. In response, over the years and revisions, the UN has attempted in updating their methodology to reflect this reality. \n\n>In historical revisions of the World Population Prospects, up to and including the 2010 Revision, projections assumed a long-run fertility level of 1.85 children per woman. In subsequent revisions, including the 2022 Revision, the projected level of total fertility has been allowed to fall below that threshold, reflecting uncertainty with regard to the historic minimum level of fertility at the end of phase II before the start of a recovery as part of phase III.\n\n>The unweighted mean value for the world distribution based on the 48 countries or areas that have entered phase III is 1.62 children per woman in 2100 while the 95 per cent prediction interval ranges between 1.50 and 1.75.\n\n>Once projected fertility reaches phase III (figure II.1), the second component of the projection procedure implements a time series model to further project fertility, assuming that the fertility level would approach and, in the long run, fluctuate around an ultimate country-specific level. That level is determined for each country by a Bayesian hierarchical model (Raftery and others, 2014a) informed by empirical evidence from **low-fertility countries that have experienced fertility increases from a sub-replacement level.**\n\nAlas, this seems to be insufficient; and although TFR projections have become country specific, the WPP 2022 [continues](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-fertility-rate-including-un-projections-through-2100?time=1984..2053&country=CHN~KOR~TWN~JPN~HKG~MAC), to predict a fertility rebound, despite these countries not showing any indication of this happening.\n\nOther population projections have failed to predict these countries fertility. Most recently, South Korea's fertility has [fallen below the lower bound confidence interval](http://ihmeuw.org/5wpn) for IHME projections made in 2018. Now South Korea seems to be facing a forecasted TFR of [0.77](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeLDiimXEAgc222?format=png&name=large) for 2022, along with Hong Kong at 0.66 and Macao at 0.64.\n\nThis is all among the backdrop of declining [sperm counts](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28981654/), [unintended pregancy rates](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S2214-109X%2820%2930315-6), [teen pregnancies](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.ADO.TFRT), ageing parents, increases in inverse correlates such as educational attainment, urbanisation, and, contraceptive use; all while there is [selection for fertility](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1090513817302799), that (theoretically) should be pushing TFR higher.\n\nFinally, one key assumption prominently stands;\n\n>While the asymptote does not have an explicit lower bound, it does implicitly because any given ***total fertility trajectory is restricted not to be\nsmaller than 0.5 child.***\n\nThus we arrive at our question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a future UN World Population Prospects report states any country's TFR as less than 0.5. Definitions and methodologies are left up to the source. Metaculus admins may at their discrimination substitute another source of similar comprehensiveness and quality, if they judge that the UN World Population Prospects has become grossly unreliable or unsuitable for some reason; this decision should be communicated as soon as possible, if it becomes necessary to do so.\n\nOtherwise the question resolves **No.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751672687.719945, "end_time": 1764020945.767091, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751672687.719945, "end_time": 1764020945.767091, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.712383123583179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4820946812092099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025876796181943176, 0.0, 0.13621665542510367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006935976674286746, 0.0022012570042023206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018853939356329463, 0.010222105112996144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07988617874388039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9709007964152908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.419877333349929, 0.22385191320770398, 0.0022175754150273726, 0.0, 0.8679718177582856, 0.05089897913332145, 0.09014098032294135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577309417872025, 0.38473774876632816, 0.3398762008322389, 1.077327435553725, 0.5110472494105709, 0.0, 0.8741801870639, 0.2618840453664926, 0.009177111268178266, 0.6329899432130466, 0.24287926822299716, 1.5004229428694478, 0.0, 1.3325631811047634, 0.02457921448930082, 1.0, 1.1148440856420234, 1.195000191746615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 1.8202813825061908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08910285564825525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037262498182852, 0.0, 0.745267964256386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0641534549048945 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290074.988018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290074.988018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36238069965318886, 0.6376193003468111 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Total Fertility Rate](https://data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.htm) is a statistical calculation that in concept corresponds roughly to the average number of children had per woman per lifetime. In the absence of migration, a population in steady equilibrium would have a TFR of just over 2, perhaps 2.1.\n\nThe United Nation's (UN) World Population Prospects (WPP) - which necessarily incorporates TFR forecasting to make accurate predictions - is a key resource drawn upon for making informed decisions, that has been ongoing since 1992, with updates/revisions every 2-3 years. In recent editions, the modelling has split into three components. Phase I, Phase II and Phase III. \n\nPhase I is the pre-demographic tranisiton. Usually high fertility (>7 TFR) and child mortality is observed. The UN does not model this stage (except for imputation). Phase II is what is usually described as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) where a country declines in TFR, mortality and increases life expectancy until TFR declines below 2.1, and there's an increase in TFR for more than two consectutive years (following UN's modelling definition). A country reaching this criteria would then be designated as Phase III. As of 2022 48 countries have made it to Phase III.\n\nIt has been noted in the recent and subsequent UN WPP methodologies [(2022)](https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf) that Phase III countries usually increase in fertility.\n\n> A long-term assumption of a fertility increase in low-fertility countries (phase III) is supported by the experience of many countries in Europe and East Asia (Goldstein and others, 2009; Caltabiano and others, 2009; Myrskyla and others, 2009; Sobotka, 2011; Bongaarts and Sobotka, 2012; Myrskylä and others, 2013; Sobotka and Beaujouan, 2014). \n\nHowever...\n\n>However, such an increase is not universal (Billari, 2018; Reher, 2019). For countries that have experienced extended periods of low fertility with no empirical indication of an increase in fertility, fertility was projected to continue at low levels over the near future.\n\nThis wasn't always admitted in previous WPP, and was a point of critique among others that argued the WPP was systemically overestimating North East Asian fertility.\n\nFrom [Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations (May, 2014)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262452418_Bayesian_Population_Projections_for_the_United_Nations)\n\n>Overall, the new projections were well received. However, there was one critique, relating not to the statistical method, but to the assumption in the model for TFR in Phase III that asymptotically TFR oscillates around the approximate replacement rate of 2.1, namely, that µ= 2.1 in (6). Basten, Coleman and Gu (2012) argued that the UN’s assumption of an eventual recovery of fertility toward replacement is not justified for five advanced East Asian economies (Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan). They pointed out that the national statistical agencies of these countries project lower fertility rates than does the UN, that the relevant scientific literature does not suggest an increase in fertility in the short term, that a recent unpublished survey of experts concluded that fertility would not increase as markedly as the UN predicts, and that current evidence about fertility intentions does not suggest an immediate appetite for more children in these countries.\n\nIn retrospect; the critics were correct. The fertility from the mentioned countries has continued to decline. In response, over the years and revisions, the UN has attempted in updating their methodology to reflect this reality. \n\n>In historical revisions of the World Population Prospects, up to and including the 2010 Revision, projections assumed a long-run fertility level of 1.85 children per woman. In subsequent revisions, including the 2022 Revision, the projected level of total fertility has been allowed to fall below that threshold, reflecting uncertainty with regard to the historic minimum level of fertility at the end of phase II before the start of a recovery as part of phase III.\n\n>The unweighted mean value for the world distribution based on the 48 countries or areas that have entered phase III is 1.62 children per woman in 2100 while the 95 per cent prediction interval ranges between 1.50 and 1.75.\n\n>Once projected fertility reaches phase III (figure II.1), the second component of the projection procedure implements a time series model to further project fertility, assuming that the fertility level would approach and, in the long run, fluctuate around an ultimate country-specific level. That level is determined for each country by a Bayesian hierarchical model (Raftery and others, 2014a) informed by empirical evidence from **low-fertility countries that have experienced fertility increases from a sub-replacement level.**\n\nAlas, this seems to be insufficient; and although TFR projections have become country specific, the WPP 2022 [continues](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-fertility-rate-including-un-projections-through-2100?time=1984..2053&country=CHN~KOR~TWN~JPN~HKG~MAC), to predict a fertility rebound, despite these countries not showing any indication of this happening.\n\nOther population projections have failed to predict these countries fertility. Most recently, South Korea's fertility has [fallen below the lower bound confidence interval](http://ihmeuw.org/5wpn) for IHME projections made in 2018. Now South Korea seems to be facing a forecasted TFR of [0.77](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeLDiimXEAgc222?format=png&name=large) for 2022, along with Hong Kong at 0.66 and Macao at 0.64.\n\nThis is all among the backdrop of declining [sperm counts](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28981654/), [unintended pregancy rates](https://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&tableId=tbl1&pii=S2214-109X%2820%2930315-6), [teen pregnancies](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.ADO.TFRT), ageing parents, increases in inverse correlates such as educational attainment, urbanisation, and, contraceptive use; all while there is [selection for fertility](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1090513817302799), that (theoretically) should be pushing TFR higher.\n\nFinally, one key assumption prominently stands;\n\n>While the asymptote does not have an explicit lower bound, it does implicitly because any given ***total fertility trajectory is restricted not to be\nsmaller than 0.5 child.***\n\nThus we arrive at our question." }, { "id": 13499, "title": "Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 6 hours before mid-2023?", "short_title": ">6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023", "url_title": ">6 hour Twitter outage before mid-2023", "slug": "6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023", "author_id": 113284, "author_username": "placeybordeaux", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-07T20:59:25.348441Z", "published_at": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.394292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 248, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13499, "title": "Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 6 hours before mid-2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-07T20:59:25.348441Z", "open_time": "2022-11-15T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-16T02:39:44.025086Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-16T02:39:44.025086Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-21T19:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "####*See also:*\n* #### *[>60 minute Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n* #### *[Weeklong Twitter outage before 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13540/twitter-weeklong-outage-by-2024/)*\n\n----\n\nTwitter is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. On October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. \n\nWhile Twitter has not experienced any prolonged outages since the buyout, on July 14th, 2022, the site [experienced](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/14/twitter-experiences-longest-global-outage-in-years) one of its longest outages for years. During that outage, the social network was completely unavailable to users around the globe on web and mobile for almost an hour. \n\nSince Musk’s buyout in October, massive layoffs have occurred across the company, [including the engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter.", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: new criteria adopted 18 January 2023:*\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1st, 2023, Twitter users are unable to post new tweets that are visible to others, or are unable to view previous tweets, continuously for a period of 360 minutes. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.\n\n######*Obsolete criteria below:*", "fine_print": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1st, 2023, the Twitter platform is continuously unavailable to users for more than 360 minutes, as reported by [Downdetector.com](https://downdetector.com/) or equivalently reliable sources for website reliability as determined by Metaculus admins. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.\n\nIn the event of a partial outage, Twitter will be considered \"continuously unavailable to users\" as long as at least 10 million Twitter users are reportedly affected, or the majority of Twitter users in territories with a population totaling at least 100 million.\n\nTwitter will be considered \"available\" in an area as long as most Twitter users there are able to both view new tweets in a feed as they are Tweeted *and* issue new Tweets that others can see, without excessive need to wait, retry, or otherwise evade service problems to do so.", "post_id": 13499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676995531.207838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676995531.207838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1592616094612144 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2216654489521097, 0.27256540919451744, 0.6561997621007634, 0.9316063391724719, 2.8829214521068316, 1.3220744895543397, 0.1952147251690833, 1.5158887107368488, 1.1287278905355334, 3.7596676617406373, 0.3517831321434348, 2.5202097713276315, 0.9012313209057414, 0.10544431128781206, 2.915451179301643, 0.7839563482902859, 0.05010683779118443, 0.0, 0.16124797741404306, 1.0649448706705176, 0.6797899597494204, 0.28796277942667625, 0.5625864617225013, 0.0868232312172456, 1.0644286298836794, 3.9356651541030213e-07, 0.39313347361314815, 2.8760342223516648e-05, 0.0, 0.024321340764207604, 0.3616436712959079, 0.4353501767536232, 0.5251175457378032, 0.06656269871998247, 0.35547574206231297, 0.0, 2.372464363033989e-05, 0.017357188951090813, 0.13529622256458132, 0.8096189641832984, 0.002351607756166228, 0.005090695237405782, 0.0014612379512357343, 0.0, 0.021105251341350453, 9.446557744961143e-05, 0.7342270029211744, 0.013792275664041214, 0.0, 0.041765038962393315, 0.00047643456911285035, 0.0009915364167867849, 0.0035227589292226706, 0.0, 0.0026056925710856885, 0.0, 4.14442462213393e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.183588206655598e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01421316627678177, 0.004046323805747333, 0.00021620970051381962, 0.0027824448310731255, 0.0075304318756041835, 0.0, 0.00642430922006425, 0.008282879561464439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.588360410165752e-05, 1.415503660958569e-05, 0.0, 0.5063344586070629, 0.0, 1.7980784579423457e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07464070254374747, 0.0, 3.463000092039558e-05, 0.00012771801080450472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.131799292354713e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676995531.247501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676995531.247501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9743912506129042, 0.02560874938709583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 639, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "####*See also:*\n* #### *[>60 minute Twitter outage before mid-2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/)*\n* #### *[Weeklong Twitter outage before 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13540/twitter-weeklong-outage-by-2024/)*\n\n----\n\nTwitter is a social media microblogging service with several hundred million users that is especially influential for journalists, academics, government officials and other elites. On October 27th, 2022, Elon Musk [completed](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html) a $44 billion buyout of Twitter. \n\nWhile Twitter has not experienced any prolonged outages since the buyout, on July 14th, 2022, the site [experienced](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/14/twitter-experiences-longest-global-outage-in-years) one of its longest outages for years. During that outage, the social network was completely unavailable to users around the globe on web and mobile for almost an hour. \n\nSince Musk’s buyout in October, massive layoffs have occurred across the company, [including the engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). According to a [New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter." }, { "id": 13484, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "short_title": "Peloton Bankruptcy before 2024?", "url_title": "Peloton Bankruptcy before 2024?", "slug": "peloton-bankruptcy-before-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-04T01:40:38.084563Z", "published_at": "2022-11-12T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.645598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-12T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:33:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-12T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13484, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-11-04T01:40:38.084563Z", "open_time": "2022-11-12T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-14T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-14T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T04:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_Interactive) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap) of nearly $50 billion.\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 94%, and it has been dropped from the Nasdaq-100.\n\nIn November 2022, the company [reported disappointing earnings and guidance,](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/peloton-pton-reports-q1-earnings.html) with larger than expected losses in the last quarter, and predicting lower revenue in the important holiday quarter than analysts had anticipated.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2024. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690802055.378092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.241 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690802055.378092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.241 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.759, 0.241 ], "means": [ 0.24471736769829064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09166238998882277, 0.22239015112039034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04039659446984174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.15820964501894, 0.0, 0.1441958114546953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45074055480075764, 0.32507244182524914, 0.5829130073283081, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5392972997715673, 0.09039887714443155, 0.37339869931764946, 0.2194278625504006, 0.8042572810482951, 1.7281227914336013, 1.2275599474968673, 0.0, 0.03607169459898251, 0.0, 0.543308524129585, 0.0, 0.46588685060217827, 0.8769447279504142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23784222400992291, 0.06457183420305661, 0.5060368694271589, 0.0, 0.13208739417665719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26757632948710586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.019590316303392103, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.004317504220680495, 0.005344667174111027, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 0.018708480110891934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003409649605783329, 0.0, 0.6696260487627572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.10807396865506, "coverage": 0.9888037294895743, "baseline_score": 35.87958939040672, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 8.10807396865506, "baseline_archived_score": 35.87958939040672, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690802055.396775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690802055.396775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9262984703071374, 0.07370152969286256 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_Interactive) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap) of nearly $50 billion.\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 94%, and it has been dropped from the Nasdaq-100.\n\nIn November 2022, the company [reported disappointing earnings and guidance,](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/03/peloton-pton-reports-q1-earnings.html) with larger than expected losses in the last quarter, and predicting lower revenue in the important holiday quarter than analysts had anticipated." }, { "id": 13482, "title": "Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?", "short_title": "Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?", "url_title": "Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-war-between-2-or-more-eu-states-before-2153", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-03T13:44:59.347453Z", "published_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:46:31.820827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-24T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2152-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2153-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-11-24T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13482, "title": "Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?", "created_at": "2022-11-03T13:44:59.347453Z", "open_time": "2022-11-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-25T01:27:20.161000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-25T01:27:20.161000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2153-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2152-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2152-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a world war begin before 2151?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/world-war-by-2151)\n\n***\n\nIn the seventy-eight years from the end of World War II in Europe to the end of 2022, no two countries of what would become the European Union have engaged in armed conflict with one another. Such a long European peace had not been seen since the days of the \"Five Good Emperors\" and the [*Pax Romana*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana); a period of some 207 years between roughly 27 BCE and 180 CE. If the post-1945 peace were to hold until the year 2153, it would match or exceed that historical example.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, \"EU states\" are those states, or their legal successors, which are or have been full members of the European Union or its legal successor. Prior to EU membership, states are not EU states, and they do not become EU states retroactively by the fact of joining the EU later.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2153, any two EU states become combatants on opposite sides of an international armed conflict for which any one or more of the following conditions applies:\n\n* An EU state formally declares war on another EU state, or otherwise formally recognizes the existence of a state of war with another EU state\n* A clear consensus of international legal authorities indicates that a state of war between EU states exists\n* A 365-day period elapses in which at least 1,000 people are killed in the conflict of whom at least 100 are nationals of any one EU state combatan", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13482, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758102381.532263, "end_time": 1787693160.174, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.444 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758102381.532263, "end_time": 1787693160.174, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.444 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5385722881609162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.22758280242578002, 1.5359437912006215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010266910336926773, 0.0, 0.052049340758038035, 0.0, 0.042417070302489604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040842215977261474, 0.0, 0.030640450375580396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4755001450017107, 0.0, 0.3582773403173365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09284018961029693, 0.011638038313524245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08170522774583387, 0.020785831404753825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7052653067079825, 0.0005249079121844207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3967612630535391, 0.26653089869663515, 0.0, 0.05786921092248747, 0.09403026334896758, 0.3472743270257767, 0.6368350008114377, 0.0, 0.6684092695148836, 0.3447780161236875, 0.008907929426231849, 2.2757533298988095, 0.03801266836034276, 0.030505902341853606, 0.0, 0.8622901999809892, 2.4851777602695244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2998845104313588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4505381029582576, 0.00433092802227838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6455501883991774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7418975704393198, 0.7802314628159001, 0.15364639460772822, 0.06192442803341981, 0.0, 0.010660768427691108, 0.0, 1.39171483084922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0045066215694116625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4912047999614709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5453235555547468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1912764946279594, 0.9373440570365564 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290055.10275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290055.10275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7019370626068133, 0.2980629373931867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 254, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a world war begin before 2151?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/world-war-by-2151)\n\n***\n\nIn the seventy-eight years from the end of World War II in Europe to the end of 2022, no two countries of what would become the European Union have engaged in armed conflict with one another. Such a long European peace had not been seen since the days of the \"Five Good Emperors\" and the [*Pax Romana*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana); a period of some 207 years between roughly 27 BCE and 180 CE. If the post-1945 peace were to hold until the year 2153, it would match or exceed that historical example." }, { "id": 13476, "title": "Will the next \"Great Power\" war be a nuclear war?", "short_title": "Next great power war a nuclear war?", "url_title": "Next great power war a nuclear war?", "slug": "next-great-power-war-a-nuclear-war", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-02T22:26:47.521591Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T23:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.228459Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T23:26:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-09T21:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T21:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T23:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13476, "title": "Will the next \"Great Power\" war be a nuclear war?", "created_at": "2022-11-02T22:26:47.521591Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T23:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T23:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T23:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T21:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-09T21:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-09T21:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In geopolitics, a [\"great power\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation that is widely recognized as having a large amount of military power and influence. As taken from [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/): for the purpose of this question, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). As of 2023, the great powers are therefore United States, China, India, United Kingdom, Russia, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea.\n\nGreat power wars occurred frequently in the past, with examples including WWI, WWII, and the various [Anglo-French wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-French_Wars). However, no additional great power wars have occurred since WWII. With the development of nuclear weapons, [nine nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) have acquired them since WWII. Six of these countries are ranked among the [top 10 military spenders](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf) in the world, i.e. today's \"great powers\". A belief held by many geopolitical experts is that the threat of [mutually-assured destruction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction) created by nuclear weapons has reduced the likelihood and incidence of great power wars, and it is widely debated whether the next such war would involve the use of nuclear weapons.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution for this question is dependent on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) resolving to a date before 2199. If this does not occur, then this question resolves as **Ambiguous**. This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report the military use of nuclear weapons by at least two rival nations in the next Great power war. If this does not occur prior to a mutually-recognized ceasefire or peace agreement between the warring parties lasting at least 30 days (i.e. the war's conclusion), this question resolves as **No**. Determination of if such a ceasefire has occurred will be based on credible news reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13476, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724775769.270722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724775769.270722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2942591965358835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6328652459948338, 0.05382522520245611, 0.26577008775178024, 0.8331016997804591, 1.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.14359465189107992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6723238985047405, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.268452777727584, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.5123307444416587, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.1836394386094319, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725869567.264475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725869567.264475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8948593119254572, 0.10514068807454276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In geopolitics, a [\"great power\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation that is widely recognized as having a large amount of military power and influence. As taken from [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/): for the purpose of this question, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). As of 2023, the great powers are therefore United States, China, India, United Kingdom, Russia, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea.\n\nGreat power wars occurred frequently in the past, with examples including WWI, WWII, and the various [Anglo-French wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-French_Wars). However, no additional great power wars have occurred since WWII. With the development of nuclear weapons, [nine nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) have acquired them since WWII. Six of these countries are ranked among the [top 10 military spenders](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf) in the world, i.e. today's \"great powers\". A belief held by many geopolitical experts is that the threat of [mutually-assured destruction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction) created by nuclear weapons has reduced the likelihood and incidence of great power wars, and it is widely debated whether the next such war would involve the use of nuclear weapons." }, { "id": 13471, "title": "Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?", "short_title": "Israeli Knesset Election in 2023?", "url_title": "Israeli Knesset Election in 2023?", "slug": "israeli-knesset-election-in-2023", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-02T01:26:04.429350Z", "published_at": "2023-01-01T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.077039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-01T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-01T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13471, "title": "Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-02T01:26:04.429350Z", "open_time": "2023-01-01T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-01T20:15:00.346977Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-01T20:15:00.346977Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel is in the midst of an [ongoing political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis). It had an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election) on November 1, 2022., following another [election in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election). There has been continuous partisan gridlock over the [trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) of [Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu).\n\nIn the 2022 election, Netanyahu appears to have [won](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-set-comeback-says-brink-big-election-win-2022-11-02/) the election and looks set to return as Prime Minister. He is expected to form a government relying on the far-right and Haredi parties. Anshel Pfeffer [predicted](https://archive.ph/IoGLE) such a government would not be stable, perhaps leading to elections in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel holds an election before January 1, 2024, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Else, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Local elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2023 but scheduled for 2024 do not qualify. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2023.", "post_id": 13471, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075514.799096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075514.799096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.015676144797156226 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.081888555058239, 5.9691574588101695, 0.1536491729144503, 0.08268875871443243, 0.205593834983138, 0.18359144832798618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10367122755239597, 0.0, 0.009903815491925944, 0.0, 0.043095124901722154, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.02987797855583203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.28517168628205414, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12832724968797793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007632777810179052, 0.0, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004661836327746534, 0.0, 0.027409221734258034, 0.0, 0.016841314468324528, 0.0, 0.011887882949387597, 0.019895982148904024, 0.003974469316782441, 0.002803478323472846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005911982803210657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.0081981432990675, 0.007439285375673236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009018318531417267, 0.0, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004438564325035619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005368764835618535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.895903306334201, "coverage": 0.9988901526609462, "baseline_score": 29.492109369642257, "spot_peer_score": 49.07443379525334, "peer_archived_score": 14.895903306334201, "baseline_archived_score": 29.492109369642257, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.07443379525334 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703749137.259201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703749137.259201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 401, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel is in the midst of an [ongoing political crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932022_Israeli_political_crisis). It had an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election) on November 1, 2022., following another [election in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election). There has been continuous partisan gridlock over the [trial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu) of [Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu).\n\nIn the 2022 election, Netanyahu appears to have [won](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-set-comeback-says-brink-big-election-win-2022-11-02/) the election and looks set to return as Prime Minister. He is expected to form a government relying on the far-right and Haredi parties. Anshel Pfeffer [predicted](https://archive.ph/IoGLE) such a government would not be stable, perhaps leading to elections in the near future." }, { "id": 13467, "title": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?", "short_title": "Any anti-solar-geo-engineering pact by 2026", "url_title": "Any anti-solar-geo-engineering pact by 2026", "slug": "any-anti-solar-geo-engineering-pact-by-2026", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-31T15:26:54.495152Z", "published_at": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:38.321264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13467, "title": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-10-31T15:26:54.495152Z", "open_time": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThis question asks a simpler and less strict question than [its companion](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176/stringent-anti-solar-geo-engng-pact-by-2026/); whether there will be *any* pact against solar geoengineering, even if it doesn't meet the [full 5 core commitments and measures](https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/) of the proposed Agreement.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if, by the end of the day GMT on December 31st, 2025, 10 or more countries have committed as a matter of treaty obligation to discourage, restrict, or bar solar geoengineering activities in whole or part.\n\nOtherwise it resolves **No** if *midnight on January 1st, 2026, GMT* arrives without these circumstances coming into being", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758603752.777043, "end_time": 1758902632.785374, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758603752.777043, "end_time": 1758902632.785374, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03456353735287613 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9654782470025394, 3.321061550062329, 1.1153080594426832, 0.6645775164919735, 0.6049386242936059, 0.9294598318388935, 0.16823478873740735, 0.12257655399756638, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.2496944086760387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289892.462532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289892.462532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9446618695546215, 0.0553381304453785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThis question asks a simpler and less strict question than [its companion](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10176/stringent-anti-solar-geo-engng-pact-by-2026/); whether there will be *any* pact against solar geoengineering, even if it doesn't meet the [full 5 core commitments and measures](https://www.solargeoeng.org/non-use-agreement/) of the proposed Agreement." }, { "id": 13457, "title": "Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol \"modesty police\" before 2024?", "short_title": "Iranian modesty police disempowered by 2024", "url_title": "Iranian modesty police disempowered by 2024", "slug": "iranian-modesty-police-disempowered-by-2024", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-30T12:13:21.736271Z", "published_at": "2022-11-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.726126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T18:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T18:13:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13457, "title": "Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol \"modesty police\" before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-10-30T12:13:21.736271Z", "open_time": "2022-11-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-20T14:20:44.712000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-20T14:20:44.712000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T18:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T18:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-23T18:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hijab in contemporary Islam refers to a modest and conservative women's' dress code, and especially to a scarf which conceals the hair and neck. While many Muslim women adopt hijab voluntarily, some Muslim jurisdictions require and enforce it, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hijab_by_country#Iran),\n\n> In Iran, since 1981, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the hijab has become compulsory. All women are required to wear loose-fitting clothing and a headscarf in public. \n\nThis law and [its enforcement by a kind of specialized Islamic vice squad called the Guidance Patrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guidance_Patrol) has been a repeated flashpoint for unrest over decades. As of November, 2022, Iran was again gripped by [major anti-government protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) triggered by the [killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini by Guidance Patrol officers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Mahsa_Amini). Among the goals of the protests were the end of the mandatory hijab law in Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if at any time between opening and the end of 2024, Iran has no nationwide enforcement body combining police powers with distinctive responsibility for Islamic modesty codes, such as the current Guidance Patrol. It will resolve **No** if the Guidance Patrol or another body retains both of these features continuously.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* Police powers means legal power to involuntarily detain a person in the course of official duties. It encompasses clear legal (or at least procedural) authority and does not include vigilantism, etc.\n\n* Distinctive responsibility means that the enforcement body is primarily specialized towards enforcing Islamic law, maintaining the Islamic character of the Republic, and/or national-level regime security, and that if it has any other general law enforcement responsibilities of a nature that is not specifically Islamic or Islamic-regime-focused, these are subordinate. Thus transferring modesty enforcement to a mainstream policing agency would qualify as \"disempowering\" the Guidance Patrol", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703967875.398442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703967875.398442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.017497822424130605 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.087689492443719, 5.453033683290361, 0.43752998804570625, 1.5134580583287525, 0.27296213878886444, 0.10636478653241832, 0.06504388532896688, 0.060784385723977465, 0.02755825804385377, 0.05327694157586878, 0.041969409790043086, 0.055660143916338445, 0.03713345496249917, 0.0, 0.015781900002267545, 0.04737795638105508, 0.046059384244688986, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.010243343466511347, 0.0, 0.0009466424993354344, 0.0, 0.0024156522646221978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3540001344847823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05298274342702911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017143622596427165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003785428551158225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.0009173699005687625, 0.0006618547477705139, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030580047396704126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007684695278520039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0009241705689538895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021021939409555618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.578380659350938, "coverage": 0.9989703756837937, "baseline_score": 53.93085659316982, "spot_peer_score": 10.483305519750653, "peer_archived_score": 17.578380659350938, "baseline_archived_score": 53.93085659316982, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.483305519750653 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008343.19639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008343.19639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 409, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hijab in contemporary Islam refers to a modest and conservative women's' dress code, and especially to a scarf which conceals the hair and neck. While many Muslim women adopt hijab voluntarily, some Muslim jurisdictions require and enforce it, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hijab_by_country#Iran),\n\n> In Iran, since 1981, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the hijab has become compulsory. All women are required to wear loose-fitting clothing and a headscarf in public. \n\nThis law and [its enforcement by a kind of specialized Islamic vice squad called the Guidance Patrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guidance_Patrol) has been a repeated flashpoint for unrest over decades. As of November, 2022, Iran was again gripped by [major anti-government protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) triggered by the [killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini by Guidance Patrol officers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Mahsa_Amini). Among the goals of the protests were the end of the mandatory hijab law in Iran." }, { "id": 13454, "title": "Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?", "short_title": "Nuclear Detonation in Kyiv before 2024", "url_title": "Nuclear Detonation in Kyiv before 2024", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-in-kyiv-before-2024", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-28T23:12:34.079387Z", "published_at": "2022-10-28T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.660256Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-31T18:50:14.955086Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-28T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1919, "type": "question_series", "name": "Red Lines in Ukraine", "slug": "red-lines", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-10-26_at_1.05.04_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-14T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-25T05:05:58.811176Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1919, "type": "question_series", "name": "Red Lines in Ukraine", "slug": "red-lines", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-10-26_at_1.05.04_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-14T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-25T05:05:58.811176Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13454, "title": "Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-10-28T23:12:34.079387Z", "open_time": "2022-10-28T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-30T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Kyiv before January 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Kyiv will be defined as a 10 kilometer radius from the city center. Here, we define the city center as Independence Square (50°27′0″N 30°31′27″E). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"dirty bombs\").", "post_id": 13454, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948950.486777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948950.486777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.965, 0.035 ], "means": [ 0.11132161134735154 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.367852451174144, 3.674624183184383, 0.02721846152446844, 2.323430574422078, 0.30632651934514066, 0.8855354390183622, 0.0, 0.7245417229316264, 0.5511169954080172, 0.04658261767648145, 0.704646985991344, 0.48348049457623926, 0.9414721067130807, 0.0, 0.7284611605073215, 0.1321532394078495, 0.07663143464076644, 0.0, 0.0006074077638941479, 0.1221029046084698, 0.06105325958685209, 0.0004420257896850364, 0.0, 0.003260899582300764, 0.0, 1.0598095702516497, 0.24106033391707232, 0.3826389650097824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3083212704278884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034743180462221595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09389829709384126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9503748144584436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008439.564129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008439.564129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9917993103933069, 0.008200689606693028 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 13449, "title": "Will Congress call an Article V convention before 2028?", "short_title": "U.S. Const. Convention called before 2028", "url_title": "U.S. Const. Convention called before 2028", "slug": "us-const-convention-called-before-2028", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-28T06:47:39.894651Z", "published_at": "2022-11-10T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.161481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-10T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-11-10T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13449, "title": "Will Congress call an Article V convention before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-10-28T06:47:39.894651Z", "open_time": "2022-11-10T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-11T05:12:41.128461Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-11T05:12:41.128461Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Article V of the U.S. Constitution](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artV-1/ALDE_00000507/) defines processes for calling a convention to propose constitutional amendments. A two-thirds majority of legislators in both houses could theoretically do so, but this is politically unlikely. However, if two-thirds of state legislatures (thirty-four out of fifty) applied for such a convention Congress would be required to convene one. The rules under which Congress would recognize an application from two-thirds of the states and appoint a constitutional convention are vague and have never been tested, but many individual state applications have been received over time, and by some counts, as many as 30 of the required 34 states may have already submitted a valid application to discuss a Balanced Budget Amendment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the United States Congress calls a convention for proposing amendments to the constitution before midnight, Washington DC time, January 1st, 2028. Otherwise it will resolve **No.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755395682.629182, "end_time": 1763140468.325015, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.0597448833 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.125 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755395682.629182, "end_time": 1763140468.325015, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.0597448833 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9402551167, 0.0597448833 ], "means": [ 0.10241363488265037 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6850893156161345, 0.953691040072344, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 1.0801068853200064, 2.822034564535109, 0.0, 0.794091690707248, 0.05892591724387544, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289320.713787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289320.713787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9827872590065632, 0.017212740993436865 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Article V of the U.S. Constitution](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artV-1/ALDE_00000507/) defines processes for calling a convention to propose constitutional amendments. A two-thirds majority of legislators in both houses could theoretically do so, but this is politically unlikely. However, if two-thirds of state legislatures (thirty-four out of fifty) applied for such a convention Congress would be required to convene one. The rules under which Congress would recognize an application from two-thirds of the states and appoint a constitutional convention are vague and have never been tested, but many individual state applications have been received over time, and by some counts, as many as 30 of the required 34 states may have already submitted a valid application to discuss a Balanced Budget Amendment." }, { "id": 13403, "title": "Will a radiological \"dirty bomb\" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?", "short_title": "Dirty bomb used in Ukraine/Russia before 2024", "url_title": "Dirty bomb used in Ukraine/Russia before 2024", "slug": "dirty-bomb-used-in-ukrainerussia-before-2024", "author_id": 127085, "author_username": "xfoyuo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-24T22:37:33.584155Z", "published_at": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.651528Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 166, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1919, "type": "question_series", "name": "Red Lines in Ukraine", "slug": "red-lines", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-10-26_at_1.05.04_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-14T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-25T05:05:58.811176Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1919, "type": "question_series", "name": "Red Lines in Ukraine", "slug": "red-lines", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-10-26_at_1.05.04_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-14T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-25T05:05:58.811176Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13403, "title": "Will a radiological \"dirty bomb\" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-10-24T22:37:33.584155Z", "open_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-29T09:52:36.566643Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-29T09:52:36.566643Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently the [possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-us-chiefs-staff-discuss-risk-dirty-bomb-ukraine-ria-2022-10-24/) is being discussed. Russia [has accused](https://www.rt.com/russia/565249-russia-ukraine-dirty-bomb/) Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have [emphatically denied this](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-allies-warn-russia-against-dirty-bomb-plot-in-ukraine-11666622124).\n\nA \"dirty bomb\" is [defined by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/dirtybombs.htm) as the use of explosives to propel radioactive material to cause contamination with radioactive material. The bomb itself does not undergo nuclear fission.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the International Atomic Energy Agency officially reports that potentially dangerous levels of radiation have been released anywhere in Ukraine or Russia before 1 January 2024 (Kyiv time), and that the nature and/or circumstances of this release are more compatible with a \"dirty bomb\" than with any other scenario, such as an accident.\n\nIf there are no credible reports of a radiation incident in Ukraine or Russia before 2 January 2024, the question resolves as **No**, otherwise resolution may be delayed to allow time for an IAEA investigation to proceed, resolving as Yes or No according to the investigation results.\n\nOnly \"dirty bombs\" in the narrow sense, devices that scatter radioactive material by non-nuclear means, will be considered, excluding nuclear detonations whether successful or failed, intentional nuclear reactor meltdowns, etc", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051277.170394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051277.170394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007315573409170964 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.287180458630452, 5.6556373490367555, 0.16634986154041242, 0.15836200610175516, 0.06584957657219287, 0.07794047209018946, 0.1684549395566721, 0.4056691442913972, 0.0, 0.013434581572019346, 0.04967868249981964, 0.000844098855682679, 0.0551946189624351, 0.0, 3.577191693106651e-05, 0.003526272319381921, 0.00010702572413168174, 0.0, 0.1590180264104052, 0.0, 0.0002832933011711297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013082031450610502, 0.0, 0.0005536743169690813, 0.0, 1.0439799670408973e-05, 0.0009415162563067682, 0.0, 0.0, 5.996070862184824e-05, 0.0, 9.340670276164015e-05, 0.0, 1.4345877788435413e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006645939110615028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022219331388777288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.324523963302128, "coverage": 0.9999054923685484, "baseline_score": 94.6866290687426, "spot_peer_score": 22.924150458451177, "peer_archived_score": 7.324523963302128, "baseline_archived_score": 94.6866290687426, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.924150458451177 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051277.214054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051277.214054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 435, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently the [possibility of Ukraine building and using a dirty bomb](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-us-chiefs-staff-discuss-risk-dirty-bomb-ukraine-ria-2022-10-24/) is being discussed. Russia [has accused](https://www.rt.com/russia/565249-russia-ukraine-dirty-bomb/) Ukraine of working on a dirty bomb, while NATO and Ukraine have [emphatically denied this](https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-allies-warn-russia-against-dirty-bomb-plot-in-ukraine-11666622124).\n\nA \"dirty bomb\" is [defined by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/emergencies/dirtybombs.htm) as the use of explosives to propel radioactive material to cause contamination with radioactive material. The bomb itself does not undergo nuclear fission." }, { "id": 13176, "title": "Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?", "short_title": "Kakhovka dam breached by May 2023", "url_title": "Kakhovka dam breached by May 2023", "slug": "kakhovka-dam-breached-by-may-2023", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-20T21:42:48.957327Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.766819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13176, "title": "Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?", "created_at": "2022-10-20T21:42:48.957327Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T13:22:20.705220Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T13:22:20.705220Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-30T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Dnieper, or Dnipro, is a major European river that flows through the middle of Ukraine, discharging into the Black Sea in the South. The [Kakhovka dam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant), about 50 miles upstream of Kherson, interrupts its flow and creates the large [Kakhovka reservoir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Reservoir) on its upstream side.\n\nAs of late October 2022, Russian forces occupied the area of Kherson oblast and the Kakhovka dam, but were not expected to hold for long against the oncoming Ukrainian offensive. As evacuations and military preparations continued, the Russians [began accusing the Ukrainian side of plotting to attack the Kakhovka dam,](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19) which could cause massive flooding downstream. Some interpreted this as a preparatory move before Russia itself potentially demolished the dam and blamed Ukraine.\n\n***Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before 1 May 2023?***\n\nResolves as **Yes** if the dam suffers a significant breach or failure at any time before 00:00 local 1 May 2023.\n\nResolves as **No** if available evidence shows the Kakhovka dam remains intact at 00:00 local time, 1 May 2023, and there are no confirmed reports of a previous significant breach or failure.\n\nA \"significant\" breach or failure is defined as one that releases at least 0.2 cubic kilometres of water or 1% of the Kakhovka reservoir capacity, whichever is lower.\n\nMetaculus Admins will use their best judgement and the best available sources in determining resolution, including reputable sources such as the Institute for the Study of War and similar analysts, especially those relying on publicly available commercial satellite photos.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13176, "aggregations": { 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"name": "Red Lines in Ukraine", "slug": "red-lines", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-10-26_at_1.05.04_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-02-28T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-14T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-25T05:05:58.811176Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13171, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-10-20T17:59:48.517460Z", "open_time": "2022-10-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-22T13:11:57.017844Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-22T13:11:57.017844Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:24:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n* [If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12776/which-ua-cities-contested-if-nuke-escalation/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before January 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as [internationally recognized prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including its 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").", "post_id": 13171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034071.280632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034071.280632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011901849763738695 ], "histogram": [ [ 46.21072048301149, 16.538098815392008, 0.8997253999816801, 0.5328648016185298, 0.521273594166108, 0.6840063046161362, 0.06897348713269966, 0.1535887448623075, 0.002205847923872408, 0.007024354155731897, 0.11384855080346655, 0.015382570145765663, 0.033190605811161344, 0.00020246766238100054, 0.00010318970443918132, 0.0031355006323977087, 0.003683577453749212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10909818179477045, 0.02170042683742544, 0.0003684865165897294, 0.0, 1.0301002202428907e-10, 3.4439506974149016e-05, 0.0011803610290027121, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0095731367435185e-07, 0.0, 0.0038425715675684396, 1.4675742221678684e-09, 0.008934392715585493, 1.1054618281480046e-05, 0.0, 0.00046509241795850587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4876897138717774e-05, 1.0487139079163773e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 5.049010326986973e-07, 0.0, 5.680523298496524e-13, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8106090942550717e-05, 0.000973640624125333, 0.0, 0.0022177030334277438, 0.00025111116845048527, 0.030868066578894814, 1.105231260741467e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038885604232929743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010596319198913885, 0.0, 1.1108310324210373e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006332454952584228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06510778247046621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022338640976869687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.697185033414135e-09, 0.000456320109533923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00560824295163094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748664151781262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049880921116145116 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.093842481970803, "coverage": 0.9999152861069657, "baseline_score": 97.26901804135551, "spot_peer_score": 6.86087926423741, "peer_archived_score": 9.093842481970803, "baseline_archived_score": 97.26901804135551, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.86087926423741 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034071.391267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034071.391267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 54, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2525, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n* [If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12776/which-ua-cities-contested-if-nuke-escalation/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 13119, "title": "Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?", "short_title": "UK to load-shed during winter 2022-3", "url_title": "UK to load-shed during winter 2022-3", "slug": "uk-to-load-shed-during-winter-2022-3", "author_id": 124611, "author_username": "rosgull", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-13T22:39:47.459847Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.945849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T16:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T16:32:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13119, "title": "Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?", "created_at": "2022-10-13T22:39:47.459847Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T16:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T16:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-21T16:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 6, 2022 UK's National Grid published its winter outlook [report](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download). In it, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) outlines a scenario where combination of a reduced electricity imports from Europe and insufficient gas supply could break security of supply margins. Report then carries on:\n> Should this scenario happen, it may be necessary to initiate the planned, controlled and\n> temporary rota load shedding scheme under the Electricity Supply Emergency Code\n> (ESEC). In the unlikely event we were in this situation, it would mean that\n> some customers could be without power for pre-defined periods during a day –\n> generally this is assumed to be for 3 hour blocks. This would be necessary to ensure\n> the overall security and integrity of the electricity system across Great Britain. All\n> possible mitigating strategies would be deployed to minimise the disruption.\n\nNational Grid's Gas Transmission published its own winter outlook, as reported by [reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/britain-could-face-forced-power-cuts-this-winter-national-grid-warns-2022-10-06/):\n> \"The potential for a shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe could have a range of knock-on impacts in Great Britain, creating risks around the ability of GB to import from continental Europe,\" National Grid's Gas Transmission (NGGT) arm said in a separate Gas Winter Outlook.\n>\n> The gas outlook said Britain’s ability to secure supply would depend upon its gas prices being high enough to continue to attract exports from Europe and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Qatar and the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the period starting from 14 October 2022 to 20 March 2023, UK will initiate any of the rota load shedding schemes under [Electricity Supply Emergency Code](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/995049/esec-guidance.pdf) (ESEC) or an updated version of it.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13119, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529731.717255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529731.717255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05588367506594296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7324226526073495, 0.0, 1.314326790937948, 0.030660934602948456, 2.9404036497666564, 0.7654240138111497, 0.0697448631166007, 1.6307586248505874, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.170094082532606, "coverage": 0.9980653363533024, "baseline_score": 44.54598819642797, "spot_peer_score": -2.7794225244816406, "peer_archived_score": 7.170094082532606, "baseline_archived_score": 44.54598819642797, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.7794225244816406 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529731.729655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529731.729655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9918374258357124, 0.008162574164287567 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 6, 2022 UK's National Grid published its winter outlook [report](https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download). In it, the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) outlines a scenario where combination of a reduced electricity imports from Europe and insufficient gas supply could break security of supply margins. Report then carries on:\n> Should this scenario happen, it may be necessary to initiate the planned, controlled and\n> temporary rota load shedding scheme under the Electricity Supply Emergency Code\n> (ESEC). In the unlikely event we were in this situation, it would mean that\n> some customers could be without power for pre-defined periods during a day –\n> generally this is assumed to be for 3 hour blocks. This would be necessary to ensure\n> the overall security and integrity of the electricity system across Great Britain. All\n> possible mitigating strategies would be deployed to minimise the disruption.\n\nNational Grid's Gas Transmission published its own winter outlook, as reported by [reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/britain-could-face-forced-power-cuts-this-winter-national-grid-warns-2022-10-06/):\n> \"The potential for a shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe could have a range of knock-on impacts in Great Britain, creating risks around the ability of GB to import from continental Europe,\" National Grid's Gas Transmission (NGGT) arm said in a separate Gas Winter Outlook.\n>\n> The gas outlook said Britain’s ability to secure supply would depend upon its gas prices being high enough to continue to attract exports from Europe and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Qatar and the United States." }, { "id": 12859, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?", "short_title": "Zelensky gets Person of the Year cover", "url_title": "Zelensky gets Person of the Year cover", "slug": "zelensky-gets-person-of-the-year-cover", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-05T18:34:33.641530Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.450003Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-07T12:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T12:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": 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Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12859, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?", "created_at": "2022-10-05T18:34:33.641530Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T12:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-07T12:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-07T12:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Background text borrowed from @TeeJayKay's related question, [Zelenskyy Named Time Person of the Year 2022](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10209/zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022/)*\n\nTime Magazine's Person of the Year is a designation that the magazine gives to the person or group that \"for better or for worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year\".\n\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy was elected President of Ukraine in 2019, and has recently gained worldwide attention for leading Ukraine's war of resistance against invading Russian forces.\n\n***Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover page of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?***\n\nResolves as **Yes** if a photograph, illustration, or other clear representation of Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears on the cover of Time Magazine's 2022 Person of the Year issue, and any other representations of people on that cover are depicted smaller, placed in lesser positions of honour, or otherwise clearly less prominent than Zelenskyy's. It doesn't matter who or what Time Magazine actually declares as \"of the year.\" For example, \"the Ukrainians\" could win and the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the Ukrainians were represented visually by a crowd of people led by Mr. Zelenskyy. Or, \"Zelenskyy\" could win and the question will still resolve as **No** if the cover were simply a blue-and-yellow field in the design of the Ukrainian flag.\n\nIn close cases, Metaculus admins may have to use their best considered judgment and/or rule the question resolution as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12859, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1670418391.969788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1670418391.969788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18999999999999995, 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.8086822255759398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12839, "title": "Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-10-05T10:45:16.869139Z", "open_time": "2022-10-08T21:00:00Z", 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incomplete list of the possible sources of a hypothetical large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory:\n\n* The Russian invasion in Ukraine could result in a nuclear disaster there (including a possible detonation of a tactical nuke). Depending on the scale of the disaster and the weather conditions, the nuclear material could reach Germany.\n* Germany is a major NATO member and the largest economy of the EU, and thus is a primary target for Russia in the case of a global nuclear war.\n* Some of the US-nuclear weapons [stationed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction) in Germany could cause a contamination (e.g. as in the [1950 accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_Rivi%C3%A8re-du-Loup_B-50_nuclear_weapon_loss_incident)).\n* There are nuclear power plants in Germany, with more than [30](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernenergie_in_Deutschland) reactor blocks total Germany is also bordering several countries that have nuclear power plants.\n* Terrorists (including state-sponsored terrorists) could use a \"dirty bomb\" for an attack in Germany.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory before January 1, 2024, according to credible media reports.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we define \"a large-scale contamination\" as a radioactive contamination in Germany that resulted in any of these:\n\n* There is an officially organized evacuation of at least 10,000 people.\n* A population of at least 10,000 people is officially advised to shelter.\n* The International Atomic Energy Agency classified the event as the Level 6 or Level 7 [INES](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale).\n* The large scale of the destruction is beyond reasonable doubt (e.g. a nuclear weapon detonation near a German city)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12839, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043145.090036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043145.090036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010564381873373805 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.09133666255563, 4.809167701423981, 0.13737219844949897, 0.12544768033996292, 0.5921210480047523, 0.09129029589123978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29168626653995805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963403728513482, 0.09689752858569187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16108292790828693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011276756507707527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003321849130956136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029475860096120354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.194402747804913, "coverage": 0.9998688408123044, "baseline_score": 98.63134910543177, "spot_peer_score": 4.027945037117791, "peer_archived_score": 6.194402747804913, "baseline_archived_score": 98.63134910543177, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.027945037117791 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043145.117433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043145.117433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 205, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Below is an incomplete list of the possible sources of a hypothetical large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory:\n\n* The Russian invasion in Ukraine could result in a nuclear disaster there (including a possible detonation of a tactical nuke). Depending on the scale of the disaster and the weather conditions, the nuclear material could reach Germany.\n* Germany is a major NATO member and the largest economy of the EU, and thus is a primary target for Russia in the case of a global nuclear war.\n* Some of the US-nuclear weapons [stationed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction) in Germany could cause a contamination (e.g. as in the [1950 accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1950_Rivi%C3%A8re-du-Loup_B-50_nuclear_weapon_loss_incident)).\n* There are nuclear power plants in Germany, with more than [30](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernenergie_in_Deutschland) reactor blocks total Germany is also bordering several countries that have nuclear power plants.\n* Terrorists (including state-sponsored terrorists) could use a \"dirty bomb\" for an attack in Germany." }, { "id": 12813, "title": "Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?", "short_title": "50k Fatalities by Tsunami by 2030", "url_title": "50k Fatalities by Tsunami by 2030", "slug": "50k-fatalities-by-tsunami-by-2030", "author_id": 128600, "author_username": "ajohnson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-03T21:01:14.607779Z", "published_at": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:34:32.518370Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12813, "title": "Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-10-03T21:01:14.607779Z", "open_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [tsunami](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html) is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean on 26 December, 2004, killed more than 200,000 people.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves will resolve as **Yes** there is a single tsunami which can be attributed to 50,000 fatalities. The tsunami must occur between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, but the fatalities need not occur strictly within this time period.\n\nTo resolve the question, Metaculus will consider all credible sources, including [USGS Earthquake Hazards Program](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) and other official statistics and media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758551662.08799, "end_time": 1759451489.220589, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758551662.08799, "end_time": 1759451489.220589, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.16323347561220855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2991016446417691, 0.8646708853344673, 0.5175953131017844, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4782179217334512, 0.0, 0.6682290751014637, 1.329024976296409, 0.0, 0.13895670879530286, 0.03326916664747106, 0.9235876929645491, 0.0, 1.050908459538479, 0.0, 0.20042950017961592, 0.0, 0.16193689729934868, 0.7876430811287041, 0.4337183691184219, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.18037658447122673, 0.006813082111662306, 0.15436703637945431, 0.2714154180589184, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.06247574275833574, 0.01223904243451124, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.0, 0.12948046043583153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287799.603349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287799.603349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.972526298188457, 0.027473701811542933 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [tsunami](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html) is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean on 26 December, 2004, killed more than 200,000 people." }, { "id": 12795, "title": "Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?", "short_title": "Taiwan declares independence by 2035", "url_title": "Taiwan declares independence by 2035", "slug": "taiwan-declares-independence-by-2035", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-02T05:00:58.471912Z", "published_at": "2022-10-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T17:08:39.138967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T05:41:59.125610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T05:41:59.125610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12795, "title": "Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?", "created_at": "2022-10-02T05:00:58.471912Z", "open_time": "2022-10-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-21T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by [13 UN member states](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan), and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. [Opinion polling](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) in Taiwan has generally shown a preference for maintaining the ambiguous status quo as long as possible. Various presidents of Taiwan have stated that a formal declaration is unnecessary because Taiwan is already independent. In the PRC, a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence is often cited as a \"red line\", raising the possibility of invasion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if at any point between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, Taiwan formally declares independence from China. The formal declaration must remain in force for at least 30 days. If the declaration is overruled according to Taiwanese law before remaining in force for 30 days, or if Taiwan does not declare independence before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as **No**. A portion of the 30 day period may occur after January 1, 2035, so long as independence was formally declared prior to January 1, 2035. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question uses \"Republic of China\" and \"Taiwan\" interchangeably, even though in a geographic context Taiwan is only one of the islands composing the territory of the ROC.", "post_id": 12795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758560908.802927, "end_time": 1758786963.701035, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758560908.802927, "end_time": 1758786963.701035, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.24353442347678342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2981396651153262, 0.06905188054893478, 0.3770178033146907, 0.13821983905390708, 1.090945305922617, 0.8977760800881471, 0.6111796954358882, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0548114899578076, 0.0, 0.0015050157310024152, 1.4726477498122974, 0.0, 1.623095653909857, 1.0086967719871436, 0.0065162286575361425, 0.9489127246400151, 0.6445617594835963, 1.3673389749466458, 0.0, 0.05803910017136806, 0.0, 0.11237086036603716, 0.014035078551980789, 0.0, 0.2193406282932918, 0.12047939913999373, 0.0, 0.5085984127073707, 0.0, 0.8049738601577547, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.0, 0.33919917683413425, 0.0, 0.3538944036223811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01940787226377284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28648252207939157, 0.31917163465548737, 0.0, 0.20568439241539585, 0.0, 0.3398368940815553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091941950827959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02329271355549109, 0.8502476124313734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36032272521860703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289268.550337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289268.550337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.918951738463778, 0.08104826153622202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 283, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by [13 UN member states](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan), and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. [Opinion polling](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) in Taiwan has generally shown a preference for maintaining the ambiguous status quo as long as possible. Various presidents of Taiwan have stated that a formal declaration is unnecessary because Taiwan is already independent. In the PRC, a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence is often cited as a \"red line\", raising the possibility of invasion." }, { "id": 12794, "title": "If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?", "short_title": "US appoints ambassador to independent Taiwan", "url_title": "US appoints ambassador to independent Taiwan", "slug": "us-appoints-ambassador-to-independent-taiwan", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-02T05:00:54.791757Z", "published_at": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.458132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12794, "title": "If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?", "created_at": "2022-10-02T05:00:54.791757Z", "open_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) are de facto separate countries, but China maintains that Taiwan is a Chinese province and that eventual unification is inevitable. The United States ceased formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 in favor of China, but informal relations have continued through the [American Institute in Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan) and the [Taipei Economic Cultural Representative Office](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei_Economic_and_Cultural_Representative_Office_in_the_United_States) in Washington, DC. Taiwan has never formally declared independence from China, and China has stressed that formal independence would be a \"red line,\" potentially leading to invasion. As of October 2022, China demands diplomatic exclusivity; that is, any state that has diplomatic relations with China must cut off formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n* Taiwan formally declares independence from China at any point between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, **and**:\n\n* The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan within 1 year of Taiwan's declaration. The ambassador must be formally credentialed as an ambassador, not a \"liaison officer\" or other similar title. As with all ambassadors, the appointment must be approved by the Senate.\n\nOtherwise it will resolve as **No**, including if no Taiwanese declaration of independence is made by January 1, 2035 (Taiwan time.)\n\nResolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question uses \"Taiwan\" and \"Republic of China\" interchangeably.", "post_id": 12794, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757565863.694728, "end_time": 1759270920.053721, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.437 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757565863.694728, "end_time": 1759270920.053721, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.437 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5485469757248268 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41483718181137175, 0.0, 0.06810270725659812, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.4869309321067743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029930314939896903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1464611606826717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7437894890753682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.03493560780589553, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7349875131040913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25452763925226746 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290053.119041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290053.119041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6168007587559838, 0.38319924124401616 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) are de facto separate countries, but China maintains that Taiwan is a Chinese province and that eventual unification is inevitable. The United States ceased formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 in favor of China, but informal relations have continued through the [American Institute in Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan) and the [Taipei Economic Cultural Representative Office](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei_Economic_and_Cultural_Representative_Office_in_the_United_States) in Washington, DC. Taiwan has never formally declared independence from China, and China has stressed that formal independence would be a \"red line,\" potentially leading to invasion. As of October 2022, China demands diplomatic exclusivity; that is, any state that has diplomatic relations with China must cut off formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan." }, { "id": 12793, "title": "Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?", "short_title": "Amy Wax out of top-24 uni job before 2026", "url_title": "Amy Wax out of top-24 uni job before 2026", "slug": "amy-wax-out-of-top-24-uni-job-before-2026", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-10-02T00:50:27.376103Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:43:58.452692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12793, "title": "Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-10-02T00:50:27.376103Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Dean Ruger of UPenn law has [criticized her](https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/14369-a-statement-from-dean-ruger-in-response-to-recent) and [sent a letter](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/07/19/penn-going-punish-amy-wax) to the UPenn faculty senate, requesting a hearing to conduct a review of her conduct. Amy Wax has a [legal defense fund](https://www.gofundme.com/f/amy-wax-legal-defense-fund).\n\nThis comes amid concerns about free speech and academic freedom at elite universities. In 2022, Princeton [fired](https://archive.ph/YpqJ0) Joshua T Katz, in a decision [criticized](https://quillette.com/2022/06/10/free-speech-and-due-process-at-princeton-the-case-of-joshua-katz/) by some of his colleagues. Princeton cited an episode of sexual misconduct as the reasoning for his firing, but [independent investigations](https://freebeacon.com/campus/inside-the-investigation-of-joshua-katz/) have suggested that the motivation was Katz' criticism of a faculty letter in July 2020.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point from October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2026, Amy Wax does not have tenure or emeritus status at [one of the top 24 US universities](http://web.archive.org/web/20221011143600/https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) according to the US News and World Report ranking as of October 11, 2022.", "fine_print": "If Amy Wax is deceased before this happens, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 12793, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758447529.098181, "end_time": 1759604631.270865, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758447529.098181, "end_time": 1759604631.270865, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3515772982573095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.225425551112417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.7340267287201618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287827.639813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287827.639813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7282784395205375, 0.27172156047946255 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Dean Ruger of UPenn law has [criticized her](https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/14369-a-statement-from-dean-ruger-in-response-to-recent) and [sent a letter](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/07/19/penn-going-punish-amy-wax) to the UPenn faculty senate, requesting a hearing to conduct a review of her conduct. Amy Wax has a [legal defense fund](https://www.gofundme.com/f/amy-wax-legal-defense-fund).\n\nThis comes amid concerns about free speech and academic freedom at elite universities. In 2022, Princeton [fired](https://archive.ph/YpqJ0) Joshua T Katz, in a decision [criticized](https://quillette.com/2022/06/10/free-speech-and-due-process-at-princeton-the-case-of-joshua-katz/) by some of his colleagues. Princeton cited an episode of sexual misconduct as the reasoning for his firing, but [independent investigations](https://freebeacon.com/campus/inside-the-investigation-of-joshua-katz/) have suggested that the motivation was Katz' criticism of a faculty letter in July 2020." } ] }
