Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3620
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Most research to date on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy has focused on the treatment of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, where results are broadly very promising despite some known dangers and pitfalls.\n\nIn July 2022, [a letter from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services](https://maps.org/2022/07/27/statement-biden-administration-preparing-for-potential-fda-approval-of-mdma-assisted-therapy-for-ptsd/) was made public describing the Food and Drug Administration’s “anticipated approval…within approximately 24 months” of MDMA as a legally prescribed adjunct to psychotherapy for PTSD.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the FDA approves MDMA for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) by December 31, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12785, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696084.182696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696084.182696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.06664163690823427 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.82662808953041, 1.8534384061268556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1316145564179738, 0.45589847949605, 0.29596887334179584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27113693126218996, 0.0, 0.525370915048678, 0.00962250396267543, 0.3740384336233754, 0.14050601030885135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18151865870128317, 0.0, 0.1598689143135727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10780273239918081, 0.0, 0.003340624811664905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003117676036554478, 0.0, 0.13872360291859026, 0.0, 0.0013022642992341074, 0.0, 0.11528637975394927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09408648451053538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14091976611519583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03341826197861836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06617533088585446, 0.0, 0.026156677666015777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016977159482529324, 0.14798257726309577, 0.10188171927339813, 0.0, 0.049271907876978605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04567463186222194, 0.0, 0.05450572507648777, 0.005675964319022071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007060531117707437, 0.09275715118540079, 0.010624089654698259, 0.0, 0.03189665381169956, 0.0, 0.020076624242188514, 0.07317258311847027, 0.0, 0.020260378170746603, 0.0, 0.11968483185136938, 0.0, 0.006338741283070649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030830933517555805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.287333151498217, "peer_score": 26.32913773462818, "coverage": 0.9999565385346736, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999565385346736, "spot_peer_score": 22.91909991147214, "spot_baseline_score": -52.51911627801923, "baseline_archived_score": -21.287333151498217, "peer_archived_score": 26.32913773462818, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.91909991147214, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -52.51911627801923 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288954.023579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288954.023579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9917568483878272, 0.008243151612172804 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 348, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/) *[closed]*\n\n----\n\n3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as the club drug 'Ecstasy,' has properties long recognized as potentially useful for medical psychotherapists. Most research to date on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy has focused on the treatment of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, where results are broadly very promising despite some known dangers and pitfalls.\n\nIn July 2022, [a letter from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services](https://maps.org/2022/07/27/statement-biden-administration-preparing-for-potential-fda-approval-of-mdma-assisted-therapy-for-ptsd/) was made public describing the Food and Drug Administration’s “anticipated approval…within approximately 24 months” of MDMA as a legally prescribed adjunct to psychotherapy for PTSD." }, { "id": 12733, "title": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "Ukrainian NATO Membership before 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian NATO Membership before 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-nato-membership-before-2024", "author_id": 110852, "author_username": "rod", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:54:31.099161Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.388508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 215, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12733, "title": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-09-30T14:54:31.099161Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T00:03:26.916954Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T00:03:26.916954Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an \"accelerated\" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's [press statement](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-robimo-svij-viznachalnij-krok-pidpisuyuchi-zayavku-ukrayi-78173):\n\n> We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.\n\n> ...\n\n> Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.\n\n> We know it's possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.\n\n> This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.\n\n> We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.\n\n> Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.\n\n> We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.\n\nAxios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath [said](https://www.axios.com/2022/09/30/zelensky-nato-accelerated-application-ukraine) \"A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine is inducted as a full member of [NATO](https://www.nato.int/) before January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC. If Ukraine is officially accepted as on the path to full induction, but does not actually become a full NATO member before 2024, that will **not** be sufficient to resolve the question as Yes", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704045791.705946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704045791.705946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005569186674448008 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.51114614292956, 5.617124678448343, 0.058086077635642636, 1.1774002781740256e-05, 0.10090645072910673, 0.0744858628885868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05699071411369884, 0.0001459967197798139, 0.0, 1.8070660317310912e-05, 0.38613466480279096, 5.9912258285628764e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.6667501318259365e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.009635088681462e-06, 0.0, 0.021360230532609693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007262271545323256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009286928011501725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5771169133963076e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004067858418065936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.166665225341492, "coverage": 0.9996542909591647, "baseline_score": 96.4872193487457, "spot_peer_score": -1.343121982925546, "peer_archived_score": 7.166665225341492, "baseline_archived_score": 96.4872193487457, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.343121982925546 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704045791.757374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704045791.757374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 215, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 469, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 30, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted an \"accelerated\" application for Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Zelenskyy's [press statement](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi-robimo-svij-viznachalnij-krok-pidpisuyuchi-zayavku-ukrayi-78173):\n\n> We are de facto allies. This has already been achieved. De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the Alliance’s standards, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction.\n\n> ...\n\n> Today, Ukraine is applying to make it de jure. Under a procedure consistent with our significance for the protection of our entire community. Under an accelerated procedure.\n\n> We know it's possible. We have seen Finland and Sweden start accession to the Alliance this year without a Membership Action Plan.\n\n> This is fair. This is also fair for Ukraine. This is the consolidation at the level of the treaty of what has already been achieved in life and what are our values.\n\n> We understand that this requires the consensus of all members of the Alliance. We understand that it is necessary to reach such a consensus. And therefore, while this is happening, we offer to implement our proposals regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Compact, which was developed and presented to our partners.\n\n> Security has no alternatives. But determination is needed to guarantee it.\n\n> We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO.\n\nAxios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath [said](https://www.axios.com/2022/09/30/zelensky-nato-accelerated-application-ukraine) \"A speedy accession for Ukraine into NATO is unlikely.\"" }, { "id": 12731, "title": "Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?", "short_title": "UK long-term credit rating below A by 2030", "url_title": "UK long-term credit rating below A by 2030", "slug": "uk-long-term-credit-rating-below-a-by-2030", "author_id": 131377, "author_username": "nmzd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-30T10:44:57.005731Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T07:19:33.626101Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-03T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12731, "title": "Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?", "created_at": "2022-09-30T10:44:57.005731Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-05T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, [Moody's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's_Investors_Service) [downgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-UKs-ratings-to-Aa3-outlook-stable--PR_434172) the UK's long-term [credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating) to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.\n\nSince 2013, the UK has been [downgraded from the highest rating](https://countryeconomy.com/ratings/uk) by each of the [Big Three credit rating agencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(credit_rating_agencies)).\n\nAs of September 2022, there is concern that the UK's credit rating [may be downgraded further](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/958049/what-happens-if-the-uks-credit-rating-is-downgraded) in the wake of [rapid inflation in Europe](https://www.ft.com/content/0a7d5bba-4355-4e4c-9f2a-d42b2298fed3) and [a warning from the IMF](https://www.ft.com/content/06962055-6b3d-4712-814f-acea3cb9e082) concerning the new Government's [\"mini-budget\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_United_Kingdom_mini-budget). This comes accompanied by [strong](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/moodys-threatens-downgrade-uk-credit-rating-kwasi-kwartengs/) [warnings](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/moodys-warns-uk-unfunded-tax-cuts-are-credit-negative-2022-09-28/) from Moody's about the impact of British fiscal policy.\n\nAll three of the Big Three credit rating agencies use [variants of letter grading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating) to indicate risk that a country will default on its debt.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if one of the Big Three credit rating agencies (Moody's, Standard and Poor's, Fitch) issues a press release or other report stating that their long-term credit rating of the United Kingdom, in foreign currency or GBP, is below the lowest A grade (according to their ratings systems as of September 2022) on any date before 1 January 2030.\n\nFor Moody's, the question would resolve **yes** if they state that the long-term credit rating of the UK is equal to or lower than \"Baa1\". Likewise, for Standard and Poor's or Fitch, the question would resolve **yes** if they state that the long-term credit rating of the UK is equal to or lower than \"BBB+\".\n\nIf none of the Big Three credit rating agencies have stated that the UK's long-term credit rating is below the lowest A grade before 1 January 2030, this question will resolve as **no**.", "fine_print": "If all three major credit ratings agencies collapse or are otherwise unable to provide credit ratings by 2030, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**. If the United Kingdom is no longer recognised by any major credit rating agency at any time before 2030, and this question does not resolve as **yes** before that date, this question will resolve as **no**.\n\nIf one of the Big Three credit ratings agencies change their rating schema and provide a reference with a correspondence between their new ratings and the ratings as of September 2022, then the question will resolve as **yes** if they assign the UK a rating equivalent to a rating below an A grade in the September 2022 schema. If they do not provide a reliable reference for correspondence between their old and new ratings, then that credit ratings agency should be not be considered in the resolution of this question.\n\nIf a merger or acquisition involving an agency in the Big Three occurs and as a result that agency is no longer able to assign credit ratings, that agency should not be considered in the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 12731, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757580837.681923, "end_time": 1760809985.664393, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757580837.681923, "end_time": 1760809985.664393, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3538821552463976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570143610552091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 1.7268046996207427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 1.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289789.132374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289789.132374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.843490135441263, 0.15650986455873706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, [Moody's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's_Investors_Service) [downgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-UKs-ratings-to-Aa3-outlook-stable--PR_434172) the UK's long-term [credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating) to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.\n\nSince 2013, the UK has been [downgraded from the highest rating](https://countryeconomy.com/ratings/uk) by each of the [Big Three credit rating agencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(credit_rating_agencies)).\n\nAs of September 2022, there is concern that the UK's credit rating [may be downgraded further](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/958049/what-happens-if-the-uks-credit-rating-is-downgraded) in the wake of [rapid inflation in Europe](https://www.ft.com/content/0a7d5bba-4355-4e4c-9f2a-d42b2298fed3) and [a warning from the IMF](https://www.ft.com/content/06962055-6b3d-4712-814f-acea3cb9e082) concerning the new Government's [\"mini-budget\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_United_Kingdom_mini-budget). This comes accompanied by [strong](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/moodys-threatens-downgrade-uk-credit-rating-kwasi-kwartengs/) [warnings](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/moodys-warns-uk-unfunded-tax-cuts-are-credit-negative-2022-09-28/) from Moody's about the impact of British fiscal policy.\n\nAll three of the Big Three credit rating agencies use [variants of letter grading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating) to indicate risk that a country will default on its debt." }, { "id": 12728, "title": "Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?", "short_title": "Russia-NATO ramming incident by 2024", "url_title": "Russia-NATO ramming incident by 2024", "slug": "russia-nato-ramming-incident-by-2024", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-29T22:50:38.333850Z", "published_at": "2022-11-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.259990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-14T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12728, "title": "Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-09-29T22:50:38.333850Z", "open_time": "2022-11-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-04T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-14T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-14T17:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Earth's ocean is a big place and its atmosphere is even bigger. Nevertheless, sometimes ships and airplanes of rival countries find themselves in very close proximity in the course of proving some point or other. The United States Navy, which [frequently transits through disputed zones to contest \"excessive\" territorial claims](https://www.state.gov/freedom-of-navigation-report-annual-release/), is particularly often on the wrong end of what it calls [\"unsafe and unprofessional incidents\"](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/navy-unsafe-encounters-china/index.html).\n\n\n\nOccasionally, such incidents escalate from close intercepts and tense standoffs to outright physical collisions. [In 1988 a Soviet military vessel intentionally rammed the cruiser *Yorktown* in the Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) in what has been called the last incident of the Cold War. There were several low-speed collisions between stalking submarines of Russia and the United States in the 1990s. Most notoriously, [in 2001 a hot-dogging Chinese fighter pilot accidentally collided with a US Navy surveillance aircraft he was intercepting,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident) leading to an emergency landing and a hostage-like standoff.\n\n\n\nThe invasion of Ukraine has started a new and more dangerous era in Russian-Western relations, marked by a return to Cold War levels of rhetoric and signaling. Indeed, [according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,](https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1810694/) the situation may be more dangerous than during the height of the Cold War, for the lack of agreed-upon rules and restraints. Both sides are [intensifying naval activity in the Baltic](https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/hmcs-halifax-crew-seeing-lots-of-russian-warships-in-the-baltic-100720728/), while the [frequency of tense incidents around Polish airspace is said to be increasing](https://www.airforcemag.com/nato-intercepts-of-russian-aircraft-near-polands-skies-increasing/). Opportunities for miscalculation, or worse, may be multiplying.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if a consensus of credible sources report that a collision or ramming incident has occurred between a military aircraft or military vessel controlled by Russia or Belarus, and one controlled by NATO or a NATO country, before 2024. Otherwise resolves **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12728, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678818848.869118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678818848.869118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2310707244726982 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4275427718299667, 0.16054456415221713, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.15628793921235226, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 1.0318950501477953, 0.23434107129204243, 0.009167091186681414, 1.3294544911158637, 0.011348003115516677, 0.44048160098224254, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.3165101238186007, 0.0, 0.4855766852487118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0208767315727192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 1.3493326293325474, 1.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15921799338328368, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21926854022508402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.581931811775188, "coverage": 0.3107426795568877, "baseline_score": -57.567719119112596, "spot_peer_score": -54.97168107788907, "peer_archived_score": 2.581931811775188, "baseline_archived_score": -57.567719119112596, "spot_peer_archived_score": -54.97168107788907 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678716700.114383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678716700.114383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9706035086425533, 0.029396491357446684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Earth's ocean is a big place and its atmosphere is even bigger. Nevertheless, sometimes ships and airplanes of rival countries find themselves in very close proximity in the course of proving some point or other. The United States Navy, which [frequently transits through disputed zones to contest \"excessive\" territorial claims](https://www.state.gov/freedom-of-navigation-report-annual-release/), is particularly often on the wrong end of what it calls [\"unsafe and unprofessional incidents\"](https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/03/politics/navy-unsafe-encounters-china/index.html).\n\n\n\nOccasionally, such incidents escalate from close intercepts and tense standoffs to outright physical collisions. [In 1988 a Soviet military vessel intentionally rammed the cruiser *Yorktown* in the Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) in what has been called the last incident of the Cold War. There were several low-speed collisions between stalking submarines of Russia and the United States in the 1990s. Most notoriously, [in 2001 a hot-dogging Chinese fighter pilot accidentally collided with a US Navy surveillance aircraft he was intercepting,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident) leading to an emergency landing and a hostage-like standoff.\n\n\n\nThe invasion of Ukraine has started a new and more dangerous era in Russian-Western relations, marked by a return to Cold War levels of rhetoric and signaling. Indeed, [according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov,](https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1810694/) the situation may be more dangerous than during the height of the Cold War, for the lack of agreed-upon rules and restraints. Both sides are [intensifying naval activity in the Baltic](https://www.saltwire.com/atlantic-canada/news/hmcs-halifax-crew-seeing-lots-of-russian-warships-in-the-baltic-100720728/), while the [frequency of tense incidents around Polish airspace is said to be increasing](https://www.airforcemag.com/nato-intercepts-of-russian-aircraft-near-polands-skies-increasing/). Opportunities for miscalculation, or worse, may be multiplying." }, { "id": 12614, "title": "Will more than 150,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "short_title": "Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022 ≥150K", "url_title": "Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022 ≥150K", "slug": "russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022-150k", "author_id": 120344, "author_username": "dtark", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-26T17:11:04.458357Z", "published_at": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.194798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T23:23:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12614, "title": "Will more than 150,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-09-26T17:11:04.458357Z", "open_time": "2022-10-27T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-08T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T23:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine along a front some 1,000 miles long, with maximalist objectives. The initial attacks conquered wide swathes of territory but Russia proved unable to hold and exploit its gains in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. As of October 2022, heavy fighting continued, and Russia has recently declared a partial mobilization, apparently intending to throw manpower at its problems.\n\nAs of October 2022, the Metaculus community [gave a 90+% chance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/) of over 100,000 deaths from the Russo-Ukrainian war.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if more than 150,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was from combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023.\n\nTo determine the number of deaths, Metaculus will consider the best available credible sources using their best judgment. Measures must be taken to avoid double-counting if estimates from multiple sources are combined.", "fine_print": "\"Killed in the war\" means anyone killed anywhere in any armed attack that is predominantly connected to the Russo-Ukrainian war, as well as war-related operational losses from causes like soldiers run over and killed by military trucks, accidental explosions at wartime ammo depots, etc, so long as such operational losses are predominantly connected to the operating conditions of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It also includes Ukrainians (and Russians, if any) killed by opposing occupation forces in lethal repressions or excesses predominantly connected to the war its attendant occupation regimes. It does **not** include lethal domestic repressions, even if the victims may have considered themselves to be properly nationals of the other side. It does **not** include all excess deaths attributable to the war, but is limited to violent killings and operational losses due to wartime conditions. (For example, a documented increase in suicide rates due to the despair and dislocation of war would not affect the count, but a documented increase in traffic fatalities due to wartime operational stresses among personnel serving in-theater probably would.)\n\nShould the war expand to include more countries, or even spiral into a general world conflagration no longer predominantly centered on Ukraine, all victims killed everywhere will still be counted for question purposes.", "post_id": 12614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667832330.626901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667832330.626901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5624257610468328 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9337388949757353, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1557719642413895, 1.0935530979913755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.40138203484563073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667893279.701683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667893279.701683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5214137444385187, 0.47858625556148127 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine along a front some 1,000 miles long, with maximalist objectives. The initial attacks conquered wide swathes of territory but Russia proved unable to hold and exploit its gains in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. As of October 2022, heavy fighting continued, and Russia has recently declared a partial mobilization, apparently intending to throw manpower at its problems.\n\nAs of October 2022, the Metaculus community [gave a 90+% chance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/) of over 100,000 deaths from the Russo-Ukrainian war." }, { "id": 12613, "title": "Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson Tory Leader Again before 2026", "url_title": "Boris Johnson Tory Leader Again before 2026", "slug": "boris-johnson-tory-leader-again-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-26T14:51:14.215305Z", "published_at": "2022-10-27T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T00:14:11.097859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-27T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-27T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12613, "title": "Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-09-26T14:51:14.215305Z", "open_time": "2022-10-27T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-29T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-29T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and as Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015, having previously been MP for Henley from 2001 to 2008.\n\nIn 2022, Johnson resigned the leadership of the Conservative Party subsequent to [a wave of resignations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_government_crisis) from his cabinet and government, following numerous scandals. Following a leadership contest, he was succeeded in September 2022 by Liz Truss.\n\nHowever, there is speculation that should Truss fare poorly as leader, she may be replaced swiftly, and Johnson may make a comeback. As of September 26, 2022, [according to betting exchange Smarkets](https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1574408957124386818):\n\n>Boris Johnson is now second favourite to be the next Prime Minister — behind only Keir Starmer — suggesting that in the event Liz Truss goes before the next election, Johnson would be favourite to take over.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between October 24, 2022 to January 1, 2026, Boris Johnson again holds the office of Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. This does not require that he becomes Prime Minister; only that he is formally the leader of the Conservatives. An acting or caretaker leadership of the party that is intended to be temporary, e.g. during a leadership contest, does not count; he must formally be the leader of the party. To resolve this question, it is not necessary for Johnson to remain leader of the Conservatives for any minimum length of time.\n\nIf Johnson does not again hold the office of Leader of the Conservative Party before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12613, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758672840.431672, "end_time": 1758728597.749389, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758672840.431672, "end_time": 1758728597.749389, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013873658382411627 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.169613341086636, 0.9349677955258586, 0.14253139406024168, 1.245349855885277, 0.03338091191999331, 0.08520136351440656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.03424665404869663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11748690146061783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288545.790366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288545.790366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990766114051313, 0.0009233885948687158 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 371, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and as Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015, having previously been MP for Henley from 2001 to 2008.\n\nIn 2022, Johnson resigned the leadership of the Conservative Party subsequent to [a wave of resignations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_government_crisis) from his cabinet and government, following numerous scandals. Following a leadership contest, he was succeeded in September 2022 by Liz Truss.\n\nHowever, there is speculation that should Truss fare poorly as leader, she may be replaced swiftly, and Johnson may make a comeback. As of September 26, 2022, [according to betting exchange Smarkets](https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1574408957124386818):\n\n>Boris Johnson is now second favourite to be the next Prime Minister — behind only Keir Starmer — suggesting that in the event Liz Truss goes before the next election, Johnson would be favourite to take over." }, { "id": 12608, "title": "Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?", "short_title": "British pound trade below $1 before 2023?", "url_title": "British pound trade below $1 before 2023?", "slug": "british-pound-trade-below-1-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-26T01:02:26.658161Z", "published_at": "2022-09-29T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.898599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-29T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-29T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12608, "title": "Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-26T01:02:26.658161Z", "open_time": "2022-09-29T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-01T14:40:47.116663Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-01T14:40:47.116663Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sterling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling) is the currency of the United Kingdom and nine of its associated territories. The pound is the main unit of sterling. Sterling is the world's oldest currency that is still in use and that has been in continuous use since its inception. It is currently the fourth most-traded currency in the foreign exchange market, after the United States dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen.\n\nIn September 2022, [the pound sterling fell to multi-decade lows against the US dollar](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/25/city-braces-for-more-volatility-mini-budget-rocks-pound-parity-dollar-bond-tax), causing some to [speculate](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/citi-says-sterling-dollar-parity-is-possible-as-uk-risks-currency-crisis.html) that it may soon reach parity with the dollar, or indeed fall below parity with the dollar.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to 00:00 GMT on January 1, 2023, the pound trades *below* $1 according to [FTX](https://ftx.com/trade/GBP/USD), or according to credible reports in the Financial Times, Bloomberg, or the Wall Street Journal. If this does not occur, the question resolves negatively if it has not already resolved ambiguously.\n\nIf the British pound or the US dollar are abolished before positive or negative resolution, the question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520975.109198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520975.109198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01644150364224881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.259924026738503, 0.22274128422767853, 0.15186867875272375, 0.0, 0.0489366926327681, 0.0, 0.0065324199916913074, 0.06612687914115949, 0.015381358621571127, 0.018696297555038113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020476985370305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005796431149441483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029332597199525006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029988785395327496, 0.0, 0.0022175754150273726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0961281997278508, 0.0, 0.05659989083873585, 0.018646144688694157, 0.004513713150276017, 0.00025516032229147665, 0.0, 0.0010872227688318024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008782752490162315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0018853939356329463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006935976674286746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001322981755186089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013931281558975482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003958218974807764 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.280628770499302, "coverage": 0.9997579993421452, "baseline_score": 59.37264687973807, "spot_peer_score": 16.27146680589566, "peer_archived_score": 19.280628770499302, "baseline_archived_score": 59.37264687973807, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.27146680589566 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520975.137377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520975.137377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sterling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling) is the currency of the United Kingdom and nine of its associated territories. The pound is the main unit of sterling. Sterling is the world's oldest currency that is still in use and that has been in continuous use since its inception. It is currently the fourth most-traded currency in the foreign exchange market, after the United States dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen.\n\nIn September 2022, [the pound sterling fell to multi-decade lows against the US dollar](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/25/city-braces-for-more-volatility-mini-budget-rocks-pound-parity-dollar-bond-tax), causing some to [speculate](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/23/citi-says-sterling-dollar-parity-is-possible-as-uk-risks-currency-crisis.html) that it may soon reach parity with the dollar, or indeed fall below parity with the dollar." }, { "id": 12604, "title": "Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of the UAMPS small modular nuclear reactor project at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?", "short_title": "ID small modular reactor to start fueling", "url_title": "ID small modular reactor to start fueling", "slug": "id-small-modular-reactor-to-start-fueling", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-24T23:28:16.521947Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.493346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12604, "title": "Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of the UAMPS small modular nuclear reactor project at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?", "created_at": "2022-09-24T23:28:16.521947Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Carbon Free Power Project ([CFPP](https://www.cfppllc.com/)) is the US's first small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) construction project, funded in part by the [US Department of Energy](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/doe-approves-award-carbon-free-power-project) and located at the DOE's Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Commercial operation of the power plant is slated to begin in 2029, with the first module coming online that year. The CFPP will provide energy for Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems ([UAMPS](https://www.uamps.com/Carbon-Free)) a political subdivision of the State of Utah that provides wholesale electricity to public power systems in six western states. \n\nUAMPS began site characterization in 2020 for the CFPP, [completing it](https://www.uamps.com/File/4fdc4f44-6c90-44ba-b18e-3e9bb75a257f) in February 2022. As of the [August 2022 update](https://www.uamps.com/File/9d94667d-5a01-4f6b-9748-50bc4bfd040d), the project continues moving forward on schedule and within its budget. Also in August 2022, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission [approved](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nrc-certifies-nuscale-small-modular-reactor-design-SMR-nuclear-us/628519/) the reactor's design, making it the first and only SMR design to have received completed NRC certification. \n\nHowever, historically the nuclear power industry has experienced decades of increasing cost overruns and project delays. See for example this MIT study published in 2020: [Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design](https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(20)30458-X)\n\nThis question concerns fueling of the reactor. A pivotal step after completion of a nuclear reactor's construction is the loading of fuel. Once that step has taken place, the reactor can start producing electricity. \n\n***Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of a CFPP small modular nuclear reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?***\n\nResolution source is the CFPP project update page at https://www.uamps.com/Carbon-Free (Please scroll down to the section entitled *Clean Energy News* for project updates, which are typically posted monthly.)\n\nResolves as **Yes** upon an update being posted announcing that an initial fuel load has been delivered to at least one of the reactor modules before January 1, 2030. Else resolves as **No**.\n\nPer the [Metaculus FAQ](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ressrc), if the resolution source is judged by Metaculus Admins to be defunct, obsolete, or inadequate, then they will make a best effort to replace it with a functional equivalent. Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.\n\n***See also:***\n\n* [What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9450/share-of-us-energy-from-nuclear-fission-2050/)\n\n* [Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758601089.948241, "end_time": 1760821484.558188, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758601089.948241, "end_time": 1760821484.558188, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 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"created_at": "2022-09-23T16:49:36.010739Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-26T07:00:02.995193Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-26T07:00:02.995193Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:49:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12593/2022-russian-nuclear-detonation-in-the-us/) \n* [Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nOn March 3, [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-no-doubt-that-solution-ukraine-crisis-will-be-found-2022-03-03/) \"The thought of nuclear is constantly spinning in the heads of Western politicians but not in the heads of Russians\". [TIME magazine](https://time.com/6154459/russia-backchannel-ukraine/) reported on the same day that the US and Russia have opened a direct communications hotline to prevent an accidental military conflict.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States detonates any nuclear weapon in Russian territory after September 23, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. For the purposes of this question, Russian territory will be defined as [internationally recognized prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories) (that is, excluding Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, the Luhansk Republic, and other military occupations). This includes the 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea) off the coast of Russia. The detonation must be clearly attributed to the United States according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\")", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12596, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485478.499123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485478.499123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01288616171122773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 24.500814373154114, 0.5109464168383263, 0.3358779252315545, 0.3428298323104801, 0.5351246045800904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1719590801937211e-05, 0.11935441761137743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14705420386324336, 0.010963682937180995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8099935064487669, "coverage": 0.9999452665163223, "baseline_score": 98.54446304493892, "spot_peer_score": 1.563476086001904, "peer_archived_score": 0.8099935064487669, "baseline_archived_score": 98.54446304493892, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.563476086001904 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485478.52541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485478.52541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12593/2022-russian-nuclear-detonation-in-the-us/) \n* [Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nOn March 3, [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-no-doubt-that-solution-ukraine-crisis-will-be-found-2022-03-03/) \"The thought of nuclear is constantly spinning in the heads of Western politicians but not in the heads of Russians\". [TIME magazine](https://time.com/6154459/russia-backchannel-ukraine/) reported on the same day that the US and Russia have opened a direct communications hotline to prevent an accidental military conflict.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 12593, "title": "Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?", "short_title": "2022 Russian Nuclear Detonation in the US", "url_title": "2022 Russian Nuclear Detonation in the US", "slug": "2022-russian-nuclear-detonation-in-the-us", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-23T16:01:05.399992Z", "published_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.677065Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 200, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12593, "title": "Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-23T16:01:05.399992Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-26T07:32:38.912065Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-26T07:32:38.912065Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12596/2022-us-nuclear-detonation-in-russia/) \n* [\nWill at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nOn March 3, [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-no-doubt-that-solution-ukraine-crisis-will-be-found-2022-03-03/) \"The thought of nuclear is constantly spinning in the heads of Western politicians but not in the heads of Russians\". [TIME magazine](https://time.com/6154459/russia-backchannel-ukraine/) reported on the same day that the US and Russia have opened a direct communications hotline to prevent an accidental military conflict.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia detonates any nuclear weapon in the United States after September 23, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. For the purposes of this question a detonation will be considered to have occurred in the United States if it occurs in one of the [50 states](https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states), Washington DC, or the following [US territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States): American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands. This includes the 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea) of the US and the listed territories. The detonation must be clearly attributed to Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\")", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485461.471975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485461.471975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014935063580549975 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 23.830154929314354, 0.5948509785096875, 0.9740718761835568, 0.4545642512585477, 0.4011663625901196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1631259301646273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03765252987152991, 0.3316315175560245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6907262280692849, "coverage": 0.9999948388683807, "baseline_score": 98.54934923559927, "spot_peer_score": 1.4464881429441374, "peer_archived_score": 0.6907262280692849, "baseline_archived_score": 98.54934923559927, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4464881429441374 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485461.540037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485461.540037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12596/2022-us-nuclear-detonation-in-russia/) \n* [\nWill at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nOn March 3, [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-no-doubt-that-solution-ukraine-crisis-will-be-found-2022-03-03/) \"The thought of nuclear is constantly spinning in the heads of Western politicians but not in the heads of Russians\". [TIME magazine](https://time.com/6154459/russia-backchannel-ukraine/) reported on the same day that the US and Russia have opened a direct communications hotline to prevent an accidental military conflict.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 12591, "title": "Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?", "short_title": "Nuclear Detonation in Ukraine by 2023", "url_title": "Nuclear Detonation in Ukraine by 2023", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-23T15:55:30.693989Z", "published_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.514310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 290, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 735, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12591, "title": "Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-23T15:55:30.693989Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-26T07:10:23.821712Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-26T07:10:23.821712Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:24:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12593/2022-russian-nuclear-detonation-in-the-us/) \n* [\nWill a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12596/2022-us-nuclear-detonation-in-russia/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after September 23, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as [internationally recognized prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including its 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\")", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12591, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501435.311754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 735, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501435.311754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 735, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014312172400233376 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 48.034324309337975, 1.8662831498318317, 1.2289939185795782, 0.20208837513399291, 0.23468729383099357, 0.0056876546260551195, 0.18716659921204856, 0.03871584149616818, 0.004134960157454297, 0.5116479070902336, 0.0011240484755687926, 0.004613156060613312, 0.00024311001832309236, 6.414709193229798e-09, 0.0013283894800309058, 6.13163050516779e-07, 1.7524829222103948e-06, 0.13120280600298084, 9.739840268810374e-06, 3.865566167064175e-05, 2.826884047787009e-08, 0.0417919034121583, 0.013777543935911466, 6.078133891939284e-06, 0.16634526633059257, 8.639858097771285e-09, 7.163256220463595e-06, 0.00044966982762298754, 0.0, 0.00030333184976352495, 0.0, 0.0, 8.385056612501731e-08, 2.250974231270457e-06, 1.0473645011578658e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006346316758942955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.590791720079783e-05, 1.0396574290437294e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007081342084979815, 1.5968565074731572e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008733890693856466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1997601683717566e-05, 5.143900570759441e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04549945262258524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010160573716212564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020838548882859772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018795877804291615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.601644639501895, "coverage": 0.999940770430837, "baseline_score": 95.80548622091747, "spot_peer_score": 1.5269099852469774, "peer_archived_score": 10.601644639501895, "baseline_archived_score": 95.80548622091747, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.5269099852469774 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501435.539891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 735, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501435.539891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 735, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 74, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1828, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12593/2022-russian-nuclear-detonation-in-the-us/) \n* [\nWill a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12596/2022-us-nuclear-detonation-in-russia/)\n\n---\n\nOn February 27, 2022, Russian President Vladmir Putin ordered his deterrence forces, which include nuclear weapons, [on high alert](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-strategic-missile-forces-placed-high-alert-after-putin-order-ifax-cites-2022-02-28/). On February 28, an anonymous US official [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-russian-muscle-movements-after-putins-nuclear-readiness-alert-us-says-2022-02-28/), \"I don't believe we've seen anything specific as a result of the direction that he gave, at least not yet, in terms of appreciable or noticeable muscle movements\". On March 1, NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg [told the AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-andrzej-duda-europe-duda-e28aa3430d7363762f649f73d8cf2316), \"We will always do what is needed to protect and defend our allies, but we don’t think there is any need now to change the alert levels of NATO’s nuclear forces.\"\n\nFollowing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine relinquished possession of the nuclear weapons it inherited upon signing the [Budapest Memorandum in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances). The Memorandum establishes security assurances from the US, Russia, and the UK for Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, in return for those states to relinquish their nuclear weapons, which they did between 1993 to 1996. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ukrainians have criticized the Budapest Memorandum. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said](https://news.am/eng/news/687674.html) on February 22, 2022:\n\n> I am initiating consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. It was entrusted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs to convene them. If they do not take place again or if there are no security guarantees for our country as a result of them, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum does not work, and all package decisions of 1994 will be called into question\n\nOn September 21, 2022, [Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 12577, "title": "Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?", "short_title": "Catherine Cortez Masto re-elected '22?", "url_title": "Catherine Cortez Masto re-elected '22?", "slug": "catherine-cortez-masto-re-elected-22", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-23T04:35:03.304132Z", "published_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.856823Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T04:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T04:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12577, "title": "Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?", "created_at": "2022-09-23T04:35:03.304132Z", "open_time": "2022-09-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-27T01:44:53.403351Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-27T01:44:53.403351Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T04:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T04:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-23T04:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada) will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada.\n\nThis race is expected to be competitive and could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat [Catherine Cortez Masto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Cortez_Masto) is running for a second term; former Nevada Attorney General [Adam Laxalt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Laxalt) is the Republican nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Catherine Cortez Masto is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur for any reason", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861406.018038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861406.018038, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.42829976691261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.051651386754525144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.030625759647094, 0.17592413500841017, 0.0, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.6398175582348846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5928755171580748, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.457422476445143, 0.06747269437926584, 1.0571045867488973, 0.2992119338252941, 2.185567498976189, 0.4134948838659678, 1.603869693373671, 1.3027371843391418, 0.4661787476814142, 0.4082891875497362, 0.18992636128698898, 0.02464062427608051, 0.06876276127162699, 0.17508449734641876, 0.004442640210629016, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003650949509915334, 0.002949293081317581, 0.48978511741558245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288472840026776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.121957402559816, "coverage": 0.9937340403399557, "baseline_score": -8.800646751189104, "spot_peer_score": -1.1849146836905577, "peer_archived_score": 1.121957402559816, "baseline_archived_score": -8.800646751189104, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1849146836905577 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861406.047593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861406.047593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6517928123044399, 0.3482071876955601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 177, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2022 United States Senate election in Nevada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada) will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada.\n\nThis race is expected to be competitive and could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Democrat [Catherine Cortez Masto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Cortez_Masto) is running for a second term; former Nevada Attorney General [Adam Laxalt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Laxalt) is the Republican nominee." }, { "id": 12575, "title": "Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?", "short_title": "Will AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?", "url_title": "Will AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?", "slug": "will-alphafold-win-a-nobel-prize-before-2030", "author_id": 120569, "author_username": "reignoffire", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-22T15:18:24.389801Z", "published_at": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.874563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-09T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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It was iterated upon and a second version (AlphaFold 2, AF2) was released to the public in 2021. AF and AF2 placed first in the overall rankings of CASP13 and CASP14 respectively. It is widely regarded as a transformational leap the structural biology space [1].\n\n[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2029, the official website of the Nobel Prizes (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12575, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728677735.389401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728677735.389401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8409559214832176 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45288178428458503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09875409554990784, 0.32869943527163187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08952914070305781, 0.4925280170881631, 0.17806353431668717, 0.0, 0.16378110850070704, 0.18119093168767203, 0.21725747077035043, 0.08496097501576635, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0901579602228675, 1.0706506755089176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6272133303724429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06558529546638647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.814310945422889 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.24863907980203, "peer_score": 2.728223930128641, "coverage": 0.2801297462476917, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998865852203835, "spot_peer_score": 5.318209788449601, "baseline_archived_score": 11.24863907980203, "peer_archived_score": 2.728223930128641, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.318209788449601 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287956.031763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287956.031763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40446310880067604, 0.595536891199324 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind.\n\n[AlphaFold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaFold) (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. 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It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if third-party [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge:\n\n* has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic\n\n* for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024\n\n* via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to \"knock out\" the bridge itself", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056500.348523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 391, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056500.348523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 391, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020035387428242568 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.87800983834653, 17.00590090104979, 1.0919777443951124, 0.438571980507378, 0.4078840225821436, 0.32352454721547985, 0.0, 0.10696210354487415, 0.0979487095607103, 0.052281322606711915, 0.5429929256814463, 0.02854009914456793, 0.020257867003017835, 0.024444707978727165, 0.0, 0.00956876280075017, 3.986271339792206e-05, 0.0133786503570573, 0.01571372756491926, 0.015218208123742473, 0.04908626391603235, 0.0, 0.002632794906751675, 0.0, 0.006938047174803174, 0.04610920150481075, 0.1382310036761849, 0.008345362779332252, 2.7660690414349467e-06, 0.0, 0.028169013064889087, 0.29879252150753943, 0.02823503454573856, 0.0, 0.0006085672971911778, 0.04359761116014328, 0.0, 0.00020330025969790804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014589736369085154, 0.004213491440163523, 0.012137827811802159, 0.010756584079366537, 0.0012037807171738145, 0.01278418676445133, 7.296884227381079e-06, 0.0019811350407213926, 0.0005926185533535733, 5.600950819627229e-06, 0.018067872525776088, 9.273337958171606e-06, 0.0, 0.0002369540946140082, 0.016259559465336613, 0.025371795448381397, 8.822199736260687e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012454982680916657, 0.012032490960890475, 4.66705448013218e-07, 2.6084338636189615e-05, 0.004271035949645069, 3.299951986699957e-05, 0.002692552357071809, 2.445379681146367e-05, 0.009239630998022566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041433291019427866, 0.0, 6.792360322996548e-06, 0.00817160134554681, 0.0016094859745249012, 0.028359136775791233, 9.51159980759516e-08, 0.003711671166744361, 0.011843134064152995, 0.0025044874373884663, 0.013647104989732827, 3.043044323534056e-06, 0.0, 4.911724292781645e-06, 0.0, 0.016525819822006987, 0.005112171863432385, 0.0, 0.009648295774911326, 0.0, 0.010723113770404618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9097279754153775e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020111271015431044, 0.023314053056941963 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 40.8179783018212, "coverage": 0.9999941999485128, "baseline_score": 23.185784625017043, "spot_peer_score": 4.176751798208561, "peer_archived_score": 40.8179783018212, "baseline_archived_score": 23.185784625017043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.176751798208561 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056500.425248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 391, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056500.425248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 391, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2081, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. 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The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine." }, { "id": 12568, "title": "Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?", "short_title": "Russian breakup begins by 2025", "url_title": "Russian breakup begins by 2025", "slug": "russian-breakup-begins-by-2025", "author_id": 131188, "author_username": "robert7", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-21T21:01:11.481412Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.232374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:02:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 180, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12568, "title": "Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-09-21T21:01:11.481412Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T13:11:36.689185Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T13:11:36.689185Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T02:05:18.128744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving *de facto* independence as the unrecognized [Checen Republic of Ichkeria.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen_Republic_of_Ichkeria) This status continued until Chechnya was nominally reunited with the Russian Federation in mid-2000, though only with the aid of former jihadist defectors who were granted considerable autonomy.\n\nAs of October 2022, Russia is locked in a losing conflict with Ukraine and conducting a chaotic and uneven mobilization. There were reports that certain regions, such as Buryatia, had been subject to harsh, disproportionate, and discriminatory levels of call-up even before partial mobilization was announced.", "resolution_criteria": "Federal Subjects are top-level administrative divisions of Russia, similar in concept to U.S. states. *Recognized* federal subjects are those subjects whose Russian status was broadly recognized by the world as of 1 January 2014, prior to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the creation of *de facto* federal subjects on formerly Ukrainian-held land. (Thus nothing happening in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, or Crimea oblasts can trigger positive resolution, despite their *de facto* status as federal Russian subjects.)\n\nA federal subject has broken away if either of the following is true:\n\n* The *de jure* government of a Russian federal subject declares through legal-constitutional procedures its independence or its allegiance to a state other than the Russian Federation or its successor, even if Federal authorities outside of the federal subject reject this declaration as null, invalid, etc.\n\n* A *de facto* regime claiming to represent at least half the population or territorial area of a Russian federal subject, and claiming independence or allegiance to a state other than the Russian Federation or its successor, takes effective territorial control of some part of that federal subject containing at least half the subject's population, or at least 100,000 people, and maintains such control for at least 100 consecutive days.\n\nIn close or contestable cases, Metaculus admins will use their best considered judgment in conjunction with reliable sources such as credible world media to determine a resolution status", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654834.959163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654834.959163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.024785144027228243 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.90083095757931, 3.005168693399302, 1.2311569350539349, 0.3925245504430731, 0.14414901547593972, 1.2060519813114048, 0.06799087457867556, 0.08297239802559593, 0.00835442517821871, 0.012309399097814106, 0.09174102855595423, 0.0, 0.0013747129030558228, 1.1868009392450055e-05, 0.015351951580821466, 0.04241784619502202, 0.008393060087666942, 0.2960258755310285, 0.0, 0.0, 4.3659966631119545e-06, 0.0, 0.00038416496968596823, 0.02477269344667705, 0.0, 0.008379483658467838, 0.0008278603595170559, 0.3354193001618365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023837534085679364, 0.000896413510864861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037107185511469154, 0.0011314836534126523, 0.0061245327394935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000996858824160787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020086990102333956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001570276946433054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031905041018777847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017490837294969062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.769338718344933e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003503775547642438, 0.0, 0.0030523923192348227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27251285672924286 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.5742466631922, "peer_score": 13.422675030122106, "coverage": 0.9999584962155178, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999584962155178, "spot_peer_score": 30.267838884049745, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "baseline_archived_score": 89.5742466631922, "peer_archived_score": 13.422675030122106, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.267838884049745, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288489.547374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288489.547374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987691190863266, 0.001230880913673409 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 543, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1994-96, amidst the chaotic years that followed the breakup of the old Soviet Union, the former Checheno-Ingushetian republic broke away temporarily from Russia, achieving *de facto* independence as the unrecognized [Checen Republic of Ichkeria.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen_Republic_of_Ichkeria) This status continued until Chechnya was nominally reunited with the Russian Federation in mid-2000, though only with the aid of former jihadist defectors who were granted considerable autonomy.\n\nAs of October 2022, Russia is locked in a losing conflict with Ukraine and conducting a chaotic and uneven mobilization. There were reports that certain regions, such as Buryatia, had been subject to harsh, disproportionate, and discriminatory levels of call-up even before partial mobilization was announced." }, { "id": 12567, "title": "Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Rubik's Cube World Record Broken", "url_title": "Rubik's Cube World Record Broken", "slug": "rubiks-cube-world-record-broken", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-21T20:20:16.089587Z", "published_at": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.212621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12567, "title": "Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-21T20:20:16.089587Z", "open_time": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) world record in the history of modern Speedcubing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube single solve taking less than 3.47 seconds is verified by the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) by July 1, 2023. If this does not occur, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the 3.47 second time by Yusheng Du is removed from the WCA's rankings for any reason (e.g. being declared fraudulent), the question's resolution criteria are unaffected. In other words, the question can still resolve positively if a faster time than 3.47 seconds is verified before the deadline.", "post_id": 12567, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686795296.109518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686795296.109518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.2444206187820262 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8064508031596349, 2.47537928534833, 0.1539321045549336, 1.2101071592130188, 0.09551526241989404, 1.1594145253069117, 0.33171761475866546, 0.5808565214478367, 1.125671899097355, 0.2833222929822858, 0.827060276640659, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.5271525541054037, 0.0, 0.010888565211072518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6967655961316941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9375624639231254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8693274511090578 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -20.20198950044395, "coverage": 0.9409773083310092, "baseline_score": -194.9324516108054, "spot_peer_score": -5.832532233418034, "peer_archived_score": -20.20198950044395, "baseline_archived_score": -194.9324516108054, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.832532233418034 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686469464.492067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686469464.492067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9963009627717151, 0.003699037228284913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 187, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) world record in the history of modern Speedcubing." }, { "id": 12539, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "url_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "slug": "pierre-poilievre-pm-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-11T00:43:10.344534Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:46:39.497137Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12539, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-09-11T00:43:10.344534Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 12539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758500920.65024, "end_time": 1759368422.162453, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758500920.65024, "end_time": 1759368422.162453, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.017092015644584877 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.234044872862716, 1.2373063537889988, 0.33516990712478456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001686542203250359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03663966570762298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244778358237942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009282537182660774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023098888201352648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.029873235309733973, 0.0331191247199604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.004958639536235962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005832286250484877, 0.025789258051278293, 0.0, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017180449892146496, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02413606297484375, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0134789797452288, 0.026884426431469374, 0.0, 0.028384084494708958 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287255.850141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287255.850141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12547259130052235, 0.8745274086994776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 916, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 12532, "title": "Will Russia order a general mobilization by January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia General Mobilization Before 2023", "url_title": "Russia General Mobilization Before 2023", "slug": "russia-general-mobilization-before-2023", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-10T15:29:09.677216Z", "published_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.158207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12532, "title": "Will Russia order a general mobilization by January 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-10T15:29:09.677216Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-17T16:27:47.730413Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-17T16:27:47.730413Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The conflict in Ukraine continues, and Russia has yet to achieve its goals. NATO countries and their allies continue to pour tens of billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine in an effort to strengthen the country's armed forces. So far, Russia has [avoided](https://ukranews.com/en/news/868494-putin-will-not-declare-war-on-ukraine-or-mobilization-in-russia-yet-defense-intelligence) launching a general mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine, which would [enable](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization) it to legally send conscripts to the conflict. Russia may feel it is necessary at some point to order a general mobilization, in order to launch new offensives against Ukraine, gain additional concessions from the country, and minimize its long-term losses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following criteria are met prior to January 1, 2023:\n\n- A formal declaration of war is made by Russia as prescribed by its [constitution](http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm), requiring a majority vote in the State Duma, Federation Council, and signature by the President of the Russian Federation. \n\n- A law or decree is passed by the government of Russia ordering the activation of reserve military forces and authorizing the use of these forces, as well as conscripts, in Ukraine or combat elsewhere outside of Russian territory", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12532, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664040606.893324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.6331783032458201 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664040606.893324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.6331783032458201 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36682169675417986, 0.6331783032458201 ], "means": [ 0.6220493528670797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0004064828653765985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2063823512355594, 8.645122971532241e-05, 0.00016347659794659064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.974389664919013e-05, 0.0, 6.3854959528354555e-06, 0.0, 0.0014182136966325962, 3.310818299471204e-05, 0.0009476916267970275, 0.1663307952176055, 0.06623603486304802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7680418747033132, 2.7208213753059447e-05, 0.0, 0.005409748471493054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3613214490250738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042419004911629243, 0.0, 0.029726898298838227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.753015333693275, 0.0, 0.5497148452685245, 0.001311051127009946, 0.010723350520276304, 0.04448409386160258, 0.032627574782370064, 1.097299496951033, 0.8299578158879158, 0.21959765354056038, 0.0, 0.0, 4.14906355585848, 0.36669653477124187, 0.0, 1.2155356897726222, 0.8100322084948965, 0.13263369881222628, 0.6444223114086118, 0.6226688617645766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7245276884635051, 0.0010294620790442207, 0.17305684922280057, 0.3392422198921987, 0.3170838037123437, 2.603297187800887, 0.0, 0.1503584214809092, 0.0884049209561614, 0.0, 2.4015828675965443, 0.4263249389996148, 0.6915988091842977, 0.015199131218765148, 0.0, 0.11239720373834462, 0.09716588717728339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02125745083215884, 0.4217797693424995, 0.003650058192127535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01800313288945655, 0.046794647128137364, 0.43346560032570913, 0.001924137498613383, 0.0025760929281051508, 0.24867385084792787 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664040606.936767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664040606.936767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4147476058209786, 0.5852523941790214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 412, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The conflict in Ukraine continues, and Russia has yet to achieve its goals. NATO countries and their allies continue to pour tens of billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine in an effort to strengthen the country's armed forces. So far, Russia has [avoided](https://ukranews.com/en/news/868494-putin-will-not-declare-war-on-ukraine-or-mobilization-in-russia-yet-defense-intelligence) launching a general mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine, which would [enable](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization) it to legally send conscripts to the conflict. Russia may feel it is necessary at some point to order a general mobilization, in order to launch new offensives against Ukraine, gain additional concessions from the country, and minimize its long-term losses." }, { "id": 12529, "title": "Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?", "short_title": "Charles III Abdication before Sep 9, 2032", "url_title": "Charles III Abdication before Sep 9, 2032", "slug": "charles-iii-abdication-before-sep-9-2032", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-10T02:15:13.207251Z", "published_at": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T22:24:15.010238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12529, "title": "Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?", "created_at": "2022-09-10T02:15:13.207251Z", "open_time": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Charles III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III), born November 14, 1948, is King of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms. He acceded to the throne on September 8, 2022 upon the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who was the longest-reigning British monarch in history, reigning for more than 70 years. At 73 years of age, Charles is the oldest person ever to assume the British throne.\n\nIn his first televised address following his accession to the throne, Charles III [said](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-speech-queen-elizabeth-death-b2163521.html):\n\n>\"Queen Elizabeth’s was a life well lived; a promise with destiny kept and she is mourned most deeply in her passing. That promise of lifelong service I renew to you all today.”\n\nHowever, [some say](https://www.who.com.au/will-prince-charles-make-prince-william-king) the King should abdicate in favour of his eldest son and heir apparent, [William, Prince of Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Wales):\n\n>... some royal fans have called for Charles to abdicate in favour of making his eldest son William the king.\n\n>Not only is William younger and more popular, his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is also considered by some to be a more favourable choice for Queen Consort than Camilla.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Charles III abdicates and ceases to be the monarch of the United Kingdom, before September 9, 2032. The question will resolve as **No** if Charles III is still reigning on September 9 2032, or if he ceases to be the United Kingdom's monarch for any reason other than abdication (e.g. death, dissolution of the monarchy, dissolution of the United Kingdom, etc.) prior to that date.\n\nNote that while Charles III is also the reigning monarch in [a number of other states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm), territories and various crown dependencies, his position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12529, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758697449.26978, "end_time": 1758805445.657873, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.105 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758697449.26978, "end_time": 1758805445.657873, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.105 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.895, 0.105 ], "means": [ 0.10622954067157654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9616163796800317, 0.6423888484513706, 0.0, 0.07982935021231018, 3.4456653205215746, 0.7647793514083774, 0.11034223931239878, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.6044936084458238, 0.8655887224229246, 1.3418302493793375, 0.003750798840222434, 0.7242840044486805, 0.3678794411714424, 0.01542797475028349, 0.6929825785475864, 0.1785546140621566, 0.0, 0.8273024506767543, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0798147353677691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556372771807311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05630936737947011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288980.374107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288980.374107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9456025217245383, 0.05439747827546166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Charles III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III), born November 14, 1948, is King of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms. He acceded to the throne on September 8, 2022 upon the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who was the longest-reigning British monarch in history, reigning for more than 70 years. At 73 years of age, Charles is the oldest person ever to assume the British throne.\n\nIn his first televised address following his accession to the throne, Charles III [said](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-speech-queen-elizabeth-death-b2163521.html):\n\n>\"Queen Elizabeth’s was a life well lived; a promise with destiny kept and she is mourned most deeply in her passing. That promise of lifelong service I renew to you all today.”\n\nHowever, [some say](https://www.who.com.au/will-prince-charles-make-prince-william-king) the King should abdicate in favour of his eldest son and heir apparent, [William, Prince of Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Wales):\n\n>... some royal fans have called for Charles to abdicate in favour of making his eldest son William the king.\n\n>Not only is William younger and more popular, his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is also considered by some to be a more favourable choice for Queen Consort than Camilla." }, { "id": 12524, "title": "Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?", "short_title": "Apple to adopt RCS before 2026", "url_title": "Apple to adopt RCS before 2026", "slug": "apple-to-adopt-rcs-before-2026", "author_id": 117461, "author_username": "tylerjohnston", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-08T23:01:58.310000Z", "published_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.283998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12524, "title": "Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-09-08T23:01:58.310000Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-18T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-08T20:44:00.098538Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.\n\nThere has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)\n\nAdopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner.", "resolution_criteria": "If by December 31, 2025, Apple has added RCS technology for text messaging to at least one model of mass-market consumer mobile phones available for purchase, this question will resolve as **Yes**. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736915199.772727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736915199.772727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9551309804585932 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09213947910089224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.23599519647101777, 0.746217120129998, 0.49929319350099344, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 7.357008126938046 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.3518691721736, "peer_score": 8.78935873883172, "coverage": 0.6075355722695944, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998656258349959, "spot_peer_score": 7.221804861860062, "spot_baseline_score": -128.6304185156641, "baseline_archived_score": -18.3518691721736, "peer_archived_score": 8.78935873883172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.221804861860062, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -128.6304185156641 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289498.881482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289498.881482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.048192868147542534, 0.9518071318524575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.\n\nThere has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)\n\nAdopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner." } ] }
