Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3620
{ "count": 6373, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3600", "results": [ { "id": 17419, "title": "Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?", "short_title": "AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook", "url_title": "AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook", "slug": "ai-driven-attack-on-us-election-on-facebook", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:45:57.672244Z", "published_at": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.166111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T13:25:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:54:26.600935Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:54:26.600935Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17419, "title": "Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:45:57.672244Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-13T14:52:04.457242Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-13T14:52:04.457242Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T13:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-24T13:40:10.643635Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Starting after the 2016 US Presidential election, Facebook (now Meta) began publishing quarterly reports on adversarial threats on their platforms. For example, in Q1 2023, [Meta claimed](https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Meta-Quarterly-Adversarial-Threat-Report-Q1-2023.pdf) they took action against 6 \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" networks, two of which were from China, though none of which were specifically linked to AI. More background on the process is [here](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-adversarial-threat-report-first-quarter-2023/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims that there was at least one \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" that \n\n* specifically pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election, and\n* Meta suspects was primarily conducted via AI.\n\n\"Pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election\" will be interpreted broadly - could be misinformation about candidates, about voting practices, about voting tallies, about fraud, etc.\n\n\"Primarily conducted via AI\" here means that Meta suspects that the \"inauthentic behavior\" was primarily written by AI, not humans. Presumably, but not necessarily, this means a large language model (LLM) attack involving a large amount of content.\n\nMeta need not confirm their presumptions. For the question to resolve positively it suffices that the Meta report claims as much.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653321.469515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653321.469515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5997660277044105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2747768219089708, 0.0, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8271656314925541, 0.5973268071867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13922075738296308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29591885022969616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12444141738618236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.07317984826329925, 1.0, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0685329747084786, 0.016130931261017813, 0.0, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.15951999612965959, 1.7284426266020598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670788722041806, 0.1349473699716188, 1.858058161595348, 0.9391819328792491, 0.0, 0.3949752445246349, 0.21177602508639826, 0.8816217886564627, 0.23632165058305657, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0960250916311845, 0.6212475234139742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.423766971031684, 0.0, 0.16496423421455103, 0.18722490586019797, 0.2612988819822005, 0.955954887117483, 0.0, 0.5335929395413765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02334530670111975, 0.004728020377454089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02639069333381832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020883674933696462 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -83.74097897353502, "peer_score": 11.658005548443485, "coverage": 0.9984325970801696, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9984325970801696, "spot_peer_score": -12.841194864073747, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -83.74097897353502, "peer_archived_score": 11.658005548443485, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.841194864073747, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287571.445871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287571.445871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35179015199909325, 0.6482098480009068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Starting after the 2016 US Presidential election, Facebook (now Meta) began publishing quarterly reports on adversarial threats on their platforms. For example, in Q1 2023, [Meta claimed](https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Meta-Quarterly-Adversarial-Threat-Report-Q1-2023.pdf) they took action against 6 \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" networks, two of which were from China, though none of which were specifically linked to AI. More background on the process is [here](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-adversarial-threat-report-first-quarter-2023/)." }, { "id": 17416, "title": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "short_title": "Twitter AI content policy by 2025", "url_title": "Twitter AI content policy by 2025", "slug": "twitter-ai-content-policy-by-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:30:36.689889Z", "published_at": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.253374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:03:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:54:26.600935Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:54:26.600935Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17416, "title": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:30:36.689889Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-12T22:08:06.600428Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-12T22:08:06.600428Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:05:25.810981Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, Twitter formally announces a policy where some text content will be marked as possibly written by AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nResolution will be driven by policy as claimed to be in place by Twitter. Doesn't matter how often this label is used, or for which content, or for which users (for example only in the US, only about US elections, only for Twitter Blue users).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671316.548768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671316.548768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04509759464446119 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.091660960206493, 1.5988132641453747, 0.8291985112032718, 0.6370871601177915, 0.0, 0.869101199159509, 0.42354655644325456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25493404373763123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10482768695740607, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908, 0.0, 0.47795229161890784, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17486289448450812, 0.12444141738618236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08389712292626407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0, 0.004728020377454089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02334530670111975, 0.06663686154666806, 0.0, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09705693318629793, 0.0450032524825526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08023668698929762, 0.005675634729541413, 0.06589893561333812, 0.0, 0.03668227494275084, 0.0, 0.012345684322673096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042354385821161813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007925084159090202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013798417812875229, 0.015057609900165511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003138745684197452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.4769039104107, "peer_score": 31.448499858414426, "coverage": 0.9995288190084501, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995288190084501, "spot_peer_score": 38.55576627897163, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 39.4769039104107, "peer_archived_score": 31.448499858414426, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.55576627897163, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286989.046065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286989.046065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9918638057269599, 0.008136194273040165 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms." }, { "id": 17410, "title": "Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?", "short_title": "AI Arms Race Meme Persists 2025", "url_title": "AI Arms Race Meme Persists 2025", "slug": "ai-arms-race-meme-persists-2025", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119604, "username": "Lawrence" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T12:58:24.662465Z", "published_at": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.732418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T03:27:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17410, "title": "Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T12:58:24.662465Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-23T14:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-23T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T03:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-04T03:47:40.344034Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “[The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying](https://time.com/6255952/ai-impact-chatgpt-microsoft-google/)”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html) and [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2023/6/6/is-an-ai-arms-race-underway) published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme.\n\nSome experts view the meme of an AI arms race as dangerous because it could become self-fulfilling. For example, the meme may falsely lead AI actors to believe that they are in a race and to act accordingly, when in reality the dynamic might be different (e.g., not zero sum). An AI race is likely more dangerous than a controlled ascent up the AI capabilities R&D ladder because a race may lead AI actors to cut corners and skip on safety measures as they develop ever more powerful AI, with unknown capabilities. (For background on how powerful AI might be dangerous, see, for example, \"[Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to)\".)\n\n[Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day), the 14th of March, has historically been a day of big AI releases, with Pi Day 2023 being the day [OpenAI announced GPT-4](https://mashable.com/article/openai-gpt-4-release-date-announcement) and [Anthropic launched Claude](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/14/23640056/anthropic-ai-chatbot-claude-google-launch).\n\n[fine-print]\n*At least, this was the title viewed from a browser. The title once in the article itself was \"The AI Arms Race is Changing Everything\".\n[/fine-print]", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, in March of 2025, either The Economist, the New York Times, or the BBC publishes a story that references race dynamics in the context of AI development. Note that a story claiming that AI isn't or shouldn't be an arms race does **not** trigger positive resolution.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743461201.035006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743461201.035006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7612494685206289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07370291962268603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08121384822413508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03269318137797285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31187544366267334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.19882764110903303, 0.0, 0.2806683844843032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014035409334259398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045849597469312386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2618229640797087, 0.0, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.03881022225732753, 0.0, 0.5595211201919355, 0.0, 0.02078240075915524, 0.5066828489144001, 0.0, 0.2534636649498968, 0.0, 0.14169919136317252, 0.0, 0.21237997280658333, 0.9815445601502304, 0.423785636031633, 1.250166222739604, 0.10678389500756706, 0.8820658822120351, 2.1942684358019275, 0.16865797889463335, 0.29290778199668294, 0.042207751502632146, 0.0, 0.17249459911753606, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 0.014429939125401253, 0.8477653512508476, 0.117722722998445, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2453341269662794, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467522735592828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.151962715455188 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.204162877980814, "peer_score": 4.525747156204128, "coverage": 0.9999285900473485, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999285900473485, "spot_peer_score": -1.3250787647228361, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 41.204162877980814, "peer_archived_score": 4.525747156204128, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3250787647228361, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289134.30771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289134.30771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6314797418445448, 0.36852025815545514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “[The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying](https://time.com/6255952/ai-impact-chatgpt-microsoft-google/)”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html) and [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2023/6/6/is-an-ai-arms-race-underway) published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme.\n\nSome experts view the meme of an AI arms race as dangerous because it could become self-fulfilling. For example, the meme may falsely lead AI actors to believe that they are in a race and to act accordingly, when in reality the dynamic might be different (e.g., not zero sum). An AI race is likely more dangerous than a controlled ascent up the AI capabilities R&D ladder because a race may lead AI actors to cut corners and skip on safety measures as they develop ever more powerful AI, with unknown capabilities. (For background on how powerful AI might be dangerous, see, for example, \"[Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to)\".)\n\n[Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day), the 14th of March, has historically been a day of big AI releases, with Pi Day 2023 being the day [OpenAI announced GPT-4](https://mashable.com/article/openai-gpt-4-release-date-announcement) and [Anthropic launched Claude](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/14/23640056/anthropic-ai-chatbot-claude-google-launch).\n\n[fine-print]\n*At least, this was the title viewed from a browser. The title once in the article itself was \"The AI Arms Race is Changing Everything\".\n[/fine-print]" }, { "id": 17408, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "short_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "url_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "slug": "us-fine-or-damages-for-ai-training-data-usage", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-09T17:02:53.591356Z", "published_at": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T19:16:39.456915Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17408, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-09T17:02:53.591356Z", "open_time": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-12T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-12T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, either of the following happens, and **NO** otherwise:\n\n* A US court orders a company to pay >=$100M to claimants because of how they used data to train a large AI model, or \n* A US court fines a company >=$100M for breaking a law related to how they used data to train a large AI model.\n\nBoth of these will be interpreted broadly, but must in the ruling be explicitly about training - not about serving. For example, if a court fined YouTube for discriminating against some people by the nature of their recommendation algorithm, even though the source of the discrimination is likely in the training data, this would not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763234189.131509, "end_time": 1767445976.865994, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763234189.131509, "end_time": 1767445976.865994, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021828565720493003 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.01677667903747, 4.077968207627682, 0.0, 0.45230708713752654, 0.29345347581623216, 0.2085885759349987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.312407710622045, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288494.717745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288494.717745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9827298258475395, 0.01727017415246046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\"." }, { "id": 17380, "title": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "short_title": "Open-source GPT-3 before 2024", "url_title": "Open-source GPT-3 before 2024", "slug": "open-source-gpt-3-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:46.480634Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.322287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17380, "title": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:46.480634Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T07:12:29.190817Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T07:12:29.190817Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn’t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn’t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, GPT-3 is freely available as open source software, and **NO** otherwise. \n\nThis means that both the weights of the model are open source, as well as the code for training the model. 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A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn’t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn’t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs.\"" }, { "id": 17379, "title": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI product after ChatGPT before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI product after ChatGPT before 2024", "slug": "openai-product-after-chatgpt-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:43.800051Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.126833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17379, "title": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:43.800051Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T05:00:16.530352Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T05:00:16.530352Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won’t touch.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI launches a \"product\" that meets the following criteria, and **NO** otherwise: \n\n* It is not a version or rebrand of ChatGPT\n* It is a consumer product. For example, we count ChatGPT as a product because it is a web interface that has features like code highlighting, plugins, and back-and-forth chat. APIs (like Whisper), models (like DALLE-2), benchmarks (like Gym), or papers alone are not considered products.\n* It is generally available to the public. Betas qualify if they are open to the public. Restrictions are ok as long as most adults in at least the US can use it. 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A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won’t touch.\"" }, { "id": 17378, "title": "Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?", "short_title": "Much cheaper GPT-4 before 2024?", "url_title": "Much cheaper GPT-4 before 2024?", "slug": "much-cheaper-gpt-4-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:37.801067Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.121826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17378, "title": "Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:37.801067Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T17:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T17:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\n\n2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 — This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI’s aim is to drive “the cost of intelligence” down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time.\"\n\nOpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a [~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters/), and a [~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023](https://www.mlyearning.org/chatgpt-api-pricing/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI announces a price of <= $0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context window GPT-4, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nIf the size of context windows change, this will use the lowest context window that is at least 8k tokens.\n\nIf pricing is no longer done by the number of prompt tokens, this question will resolve as **ANNULLED**. No pricing by sampled tokens or other methods will be considered.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699635244.475578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699635244.475578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.4515212431982681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3427692223916379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3968658204474105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3894365394542207, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 1.5841277243484502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9401599403110579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.578587091032942, "coverage": 0.7329040992795953, "baseline_score": -29.427197195647114, "spot_peer_score": 63.20435196552889, "peer_archived_score": 10.578587091032942, "baseline_archived_score": -29.427197195647114, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.20435196552889 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699256487.464394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699256487.464394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7037212770687044, 0.29627872293129565 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\n\n2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 — This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI’s aim is to drive “the cost of intelligence” down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time.\"\n\nOpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a [~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters/), and a [~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023](https://www.mlyearning.org/chatgpt-api-pricing/)." }, { "id": 17377, "title": "Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI finetuning API before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI finetuning API before 2024", "slug": "openai-finetuning-api-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:31.797476Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.637943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17377, "title": "Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:31.797476Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T06:55:57.633710Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T06:55:57.633710Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\r\n\r\nThe interview included the following:\r\n\r\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\r\n\r\n2023: A Finetuning API — The finetuning API will be extended to the latest models but the exact form for this will be shaped by what developers indicate they really want.\"\r\n\r\n[Finetuning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuning_(machine_learning)) is updating a pre-trained machine learning model with new data, such that it performs better on that type of new data. For \"foundational\" models like GPT-4, many people expect finetuning to be critical for many domains, such as software and law.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API that lets users finetune GPT-4.\r\n\r\n\"Finetune GPT-4\" will be interpreted generally. If OpenAI advertises that the API is for finetuning GPT-4, in a way where the user adds their corpus of training data, that will qualify, regardless of the details of how the finetuning works.\r\n\r\n\"Release\" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703924504.918479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703924504.918479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07260807071272388 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.948845399040097, 6.961515267866367, 0.47536717538991013, 0.0, 0.48600933159620147, 0.38178277360703755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49457052976869875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44032882335882917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13317800265805058, 0.07877593890689805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.918800593117664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0, 0.05718238516403556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052640372796005884, 0.0, 0.007124099762028338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04445312502789519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040774056763402934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.0, 0.0027443169652525703, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004087845041439103, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01936531092725104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037350175802999215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10275685448589009, 0.0, 0.12647521125524824, 0.0, 0.01107634036331263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.0, 0.0030825618759363423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01948027544888472, 0.0919202996362008, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.0, 0.09324329450494287, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.031209075815422052, 0.04840306567371073, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.06405456818926308 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -9.505011957698017, "coverage": 0.9996891726023592, "baseline_score": -124.89189880716133, "spot_peer_score": 12.809105254537538, "peer_archived_score": -9.505011957698017, "baseline_archived_score": -124.89189880716133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.809105254537538 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008327.26577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008327.26577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978460662044869, 0.00215393379551309 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\r\n\r\nThe interview included the following:\r\n\r\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\r\n\r\n2023: A Finetuning API — The finetuning API will be extended to the latest models but the exact form for this will be shaped by what developers indicate they really want.\"\r\n\r\n[Finetuning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuning_(machine_learning)) is updating a pre-trained machine learning model with new data, such that it performs better on that type of new data. For \"foundational\" models like GPT-4, many people expect finetuning to be critical for many domains, such as software and law." }, { "id": 17376, "title": "Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Stateful API before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI Stateful API before 2024", "slug": "openai-stateful-api-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:14.979921Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.831393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17376, "title": "Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:14.979921Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T11:18:53.123849Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T11:18:53.123849Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"2023: A stateful API — When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API to GPT-4 that \"remembers\" your history without explicitly passing it back in, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nIf unclear, we will defer to whether OpenAI calls the API \"stateful\", and this will be interpreted broadly.\n\n\"Releases\" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17376, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702655493.990706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702655493.990706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.6976966207308413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13615441926470892, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0693425405097108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 1.5847413481297048, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059711244759617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.3386586773479101, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6059066398566046 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.39527649530049, "coverage": 0.7326512344393683, "baseline_score": 15.685540678799502, "spot_peer_score": 10.266188704306623, "peer_archived_score": 15.39527649530049, "baseline_archived_score": 15.685540678799502, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.266188704306623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699207718.303067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699207718.303067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.32110460632549054, 0.6788953936745095 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"2023: A stateful API — When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history.\"" }, { "id": 17373, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?", "short_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2026?", "url_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2026?", "slug": "cybersecurity-laws-for-powerful-ai-by-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T21:54:08.861913Z", "published_at": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:04:04.959324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17373, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T21:54:08.861913Z", "open_time": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T22:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T22:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by Dec 31, 2025, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of _powerful_ models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "fine_print": "There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. 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A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default." }, { "id": 17372, "title": "Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?", "short_title": "2023 Sierra Leone Elections to Runoff?", "url_title": "2023 Sierra Leone Elections to Runoff?", "slug": "2023-sierra-leone-elections-to-runoff", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T20:12:34.908763Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.932457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17372, "title": "Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T20:12:34.908763Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T20:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T20:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC), presenting Bio as the single candidate.\n\nTo win in the first round, a candidate must secure [at least 55%](https://ec.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/FAQ_RUNOFF.pdf) of the total votes. Failing this, the election proceeds to a runoff between the top two candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the June 24, 2023, Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone go to a second round. The question will resolve as **No** if any candidate secures 55% or more votes in the first round, thus preventing a runoff.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official announcements from the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL). If the ECSL announces that a runoff will be held, the question will resolve **Yes**. If the ECSL announces a winner after the first round of voting, the question will resolve **No**.\n\nIf the election is postponed or cancelled for any reason, the question will be **annulled.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687533105.672715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687533105.672715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.584448697620516 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.12257655399756638, 1.7384602599698558, 1.1474307197096802, 0.0, 0.47737054121135125, 0.5901759823955808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9107296279046566, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.6049386242936059, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.056323474121823, "coverage": 0.9999952068856517, "baseline_score": -17.339979917349826, "spot_peer_score": -2.4494561558901564, "peer_archived_score": 8.056323474121823, "baseline_archived_score": -17.339979917349826, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.4494561558901564 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687533105.687528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687533105.687528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.58380332718977, 0.41619667281023004 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). 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Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, but some have gone the distance, contributing to some of the most exciting moments in sports history.\n\nThe 2023 NBA Finals are being contested between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. As of June 6th, the first two games have already been played with both teams winning one game each.\n\nIn the NHL, the Stanley Cup Finals are being played between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. 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The Golden Knights currently lead the series 2-0." }, { "id": 17366, "title": "Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?", "short_title": "Ethereum ruled as \"Security\" by 2030 in U.S.?", "url_title": "Ethereum ruled as \"Security\" by 2030 in U.S.?", "slug": "ethereum-ruled-as-security-by-2030-in-us", "author_id": 129715, "author_username": "job85555", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T14:15:15.805448Z", "published_at": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T10:57:50.286436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17366, "title": "Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T14:15:15.805448Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-19T01:05:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-19T01:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.\n\nSEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens [are securities](https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-sec-speaks-090822), and in June 2023, the SEC charged both [Coinbase](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102) and [Binance](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101) with securities-related violations. \n\n> The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/sec-coinbase-securities-law-violations-00100352))\n\nEthereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.\n\nSEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was [not a security](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/12/gensler-video-ethereum-litecoin-not-securities/). Gensler has [declined to state](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/19/sec-chair-gensler-declines-to-say-if-ether-is-a-security-in-contentious-congressional-hearing/) whether ETH is a security in his official capacity. \n\nThe CFTC has [implied](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/28/us-cftc-chief-behnam-reinforces-view-of-ether-as-commodity/) ETH is a commodity and not a security.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves yes if:\n\n- The US Congress passes a law which classifies Ethereum as a security\n- A federal court decision states that Ethereum is a security", "fine_print": "State-level laws, court decisions, and executive actions will not be sufficient for a Yes resolution", "post_id": 17366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761821859.225842, "end_time": 1769595127.769492, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761821859.225842, "end_time": 1769595127.769492, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10902653260799978 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.45972621534782, 0.7955166408122005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 1.617166145276781, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2746412473866603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289694.678692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289694.678692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9839801810831358, 0.016019818916864246 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.\n\nSEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens [are securities](https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-sec-speaks-090822), and in June 2023, the SEC charged both [Coinbase](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102) and [Binance](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101) with securities-related violations. \n\n> The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/sec-coinbase-securities-law-violations-00100352))\n\nEthereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.\n\nSEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was [not a security](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/12/gensler-video-ethereum-litecoin-not-securities/). Gensler has [declined to state](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/19/sec-chair-gensler-declines-to-say-if-ether-is-a-security-in-contentious-congressional-hearing/) whether ETH is a security in his official capacity. \n\nThe CFTC has [implied](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/28/us-cftc-chief-behnam-reinforces-view-of-ether-as-commodity/) ETH is a commodity and not a security." }, { "id": 17325, "title": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?", "short_title": "MLB Expansion by 2030?", "url_title": "MLB Expansion by 2030?", "slug": "mlb-expansion-by-2030", "author_id": 147030, "author_username": "BaseballExpansion", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-03T11:33:16.882409Z", "published_at": "2023-06-09T17:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T04:32:43.706366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-09T17:53:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-04-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-09T17:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17325, "title": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?", "created_at": "2023-06-03T11:33:16.882409Z", "open_time": "2023-06-09T17:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-11T17:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-11T17:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-04-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.", "fine_print": "What is considered a regular season game will follow the definition of Major League Baseball at that time.", "post_id": 17325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762576353.019347, "end_time": 1763656487.209765, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.374 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.411 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762576353.019347, "end_time": 1763656487.209765, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.374 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.411 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.626, 0.374 ], "means": [ 0.4383151330969439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7845533632614763, 1.1304496304840794, 0.28862105284580747, 0.6909710575892369, 0.16528349819318522, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288602.455782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288602.455782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7314630238025301, 0.26853697619746986 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030." }, { "id": 17324, "title": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Spring 2023?", "url_title": "Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Spring 2023?", "slug": "ukrainian-counteroffensive-in-spring-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-02T16:05:56.445487Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.991839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17324, "title": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-02T16:05:56.445487Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-04T04:11:46.328356Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-04T04:11:46.328356Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.\n\nOn June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:\n\n>This isn’t a movie. It’s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn’t just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.\n\n[Preparations](https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/) for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come \"[soon](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4024987-ukrainian-official-hints-counteroffensive-coming-soon/).\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if two of the following sources publish reports, prior to 11:59pm UTC on Tuesday, June 20, that unequivocally state the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun.\n\n- [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)\n- [The Economist](https://www.economist.com)\n- [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com)\n- [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com)\n\nFor the purposes of this resolution, only these sources will be considered.\n\nTo meet the threshold for a **Yes** resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece.\n\nFor example:\n\n- The hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Ukraine's counteroffensive began on June 9th\" would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n- The hypothetical statements \"Ukraine's much-anticipated offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Ukraine's offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIf there is ambiguity about whether a statement meets this threshold, a team of three Metaculus moderators will make the final determination.", "fine_print": "It is possible the actual start date of the offensive is before June 21, 2023 and that there is evidence available attesting to an earlier start date, but that the question resolves **No** because that evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.", "post_id": 17324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686243030.120385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686243030.120385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9242730352659183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11515981116916688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001202313269185036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005278284780573776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5111189699699573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006905453924573398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000244672240485987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.784846217452747, 0.0, 0.0022849581603560792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4589859784970296, 0.0, 0.04541843129948949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04860115310995438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08713413997822003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031831285372123284, 0.6633547353867637, 0.6397952896088543, 0.024680744930244594, 0.14156091856216457, 0.0, 0.9180103413220253, 0.0, 1.703851188987512, 0.3466377511063886, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.588428353993699, 0.5782805728338711, 0.12371919545624935, 2.0962396711080475, 9.496081151198354 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.939503712146546, "coverage": 0.28703015830095635, "baseline_score": 22.517519806372512, "spot_peer_score": -1.8731969443047165, "peer_archived_score": 5.939503712146546, "baseline_archived_score": 22.517519806372512, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8731969443047165 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686237952.093565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686237952.093565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07210981595648969, 0.9278901840435103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.\n\nOn June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:\n\n>This isn’t a movie. It’s difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn’t just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.\n\n[Preparations](https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/) for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come \"[soon](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4024987-ukrainian-official-hints-counteroffensive-coming-soon/).\"" }, { "id": 17323, "title": "Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?", "short_title": "EU Endorses AI Act before 6/16/23?", "url_title": "EU Endorses AI Act before 6/16/23?", "slug": "eu-endorses-ai-act-before-61623", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-02T15:11:08.253517Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T15:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.319949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T15:15:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose [new rules](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230505IPR84904/ai-act-a-step-closer-to-the-first-rules-on-artificial-intelligence) governing the deployment of AI systems. \n\nThe current [proposal](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) would base rules on a risk classification system, with four levels of risk:\n\n> - **Unacceptable risk AI.** Harmful uses of AI that contravene EU values (such as social scoring by governments) will be banned because of the unacceptable risk they create; \n> - **High-risk AI**. A number of AI systems (listed in an Annex) that are creating adverse impact on people's safety or their fundamental rights are considered to be high-risk. In order to ensure trust and consistent high level of protection of safety and fundamental rights, a range of mandatory requirements (including a conformity assessment) would apply to all high-risks systems; \n- **Limited risk AI.** Some AI systems will be subject to a limited set of obligations (e.g. transparency); \n- **Minimal risk AI.** All other AI systems can be developed and used in the EU without additional legal obligations than existing legislation.\n\nOn May 11th, the EU Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection [adopted a negotiating mandate](https://ogletree.com/insights/european-parliaments-leading-committees-vote-to-approve-ai-act/) for the AI Act.\n\nBefore the final law can be negotiated, the EU Parliament needs to endorse this negotiating mandate. Parliament is in session June 12-15, with debate on the AI act [scheduled](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/documents/PRIORITY_INFO/1027/SYN_POJ_June_STR_EN.pdf) for June 13th.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the EU Parliament endorses a negotiating mandate for the [AI Act](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) before June 16, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17323, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686751338.471783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686751338.471783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6292465202627515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.10223706135307076, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.13332134712720678, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 2.2640810799730318, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0337991717578503, 0.013162951709963655, 0.5618459919575545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6613535190633767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.30966405694456456, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8466476610531595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.688980221901701, "coverage": 0.8730650293118785, "baseline_score": 36.5715875913231, "spot_peer_score": -11.232320076103502, "peer_archived_score": 0.688980221901701, "baseline_archived_score": 36.5715875913231, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.232320076103502 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686739634.977779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686739634.977779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41985682136022295, 0.580143178639777 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose [new rules](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230505IPR84904/ai-act-a-step-closer-to-the-first-rules-on-artificial-intelligence) governing the deployment of AI systems. \n\nThe current [proposal](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) would base rules on a risk classification system, with four levels of risk:\n\n> - **Unacceptable risk AI.** Harmful uses of AI that contravene EU values (such as social scoring by governments) will be banned because of the unacceptable risk they create; \n> - **High-risk AI**. A number of AI systems (listed in an Annex) that are creating adverse impact on people's safety or their fundamental rights are considered to be high-risk. In order to ensure trust and consistent high level of protection of safety and fundamental rights, a range of mandatory requirements (including a conformity assessment) would apply to all high-risks systems; \n- **Limited risk AI.** Some AI systems will be subject to a limited set of obligations (e.g. transparency); \n- **Minimal risk AI.** All other AI systems can be developed and used in the EU without additional legal obligations than existing legislation.\n\nOn May 11th, the EU Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection [adopted a negotiating mandate](https://ogletree.com/insights/european-parliaments-leading-committees-vote-to-approve-ai-act/) for the AI Act.\n\nBefore the final law can be negotiated, the EU Parliament needs to endorse this negotiating mandate. Parliament is in session June 12-15, with debate on the AI act [scheduled](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/documents/PRIORITY_INFO/1027/SYN_POJ_June_STR_EN.pdf) for June 13th." }, { "id": 17322, "title": "Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?", "short_title": "Garibashvili's rule disrupted before election", "url_title": "Garibashvili's rule disrupted before election", "slug": "garibashvilis-rule-disrupted-before-election", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-02T02:18:13.425351Z", "published_at": "2023-06-04T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.308738Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-04T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T14:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-26T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T14:34:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-04T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17322, "title": "Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?", "created_at": "2023-06-02T02:18:13.425351Z", "open_time": "2023-06-04T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-06T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-06T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-26T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T14:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-29T14:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-26T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T14:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Georgia is a former Soviet republic that declared its independence in 1991 and has since pursued a pro-Western course, aspiring to join the European Union and NATO. However, Georgia’s territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.\n\nIrakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgia’s Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgia’s largest trading partner. He has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgia’s sovereignty.\n\nAs of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.\n\nThe human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. Garibashvili has been accused of failing to protect human rights defenders and media freedom, cracking down on dissenting voices and enabling a climate of impunity for perpetrators of violence.\n\nGeorgia's next parliamentary elections, which will elect the 150 members of the Parliament of Georgia for a four-year term, are to be held on 26 October 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "A \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Garibashvili has:\n\n* resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),\n* lost a confidence vote,\n* lost an election,\n* formally left office,\n* died,\n* been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.\n\nResolution will be according to reliable published reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720350167.32089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.285 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.514 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720350167.32089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.285 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.514 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4423486156711957 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 1.4299274204156514, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.534735732744519, "coverage": 0.4653792669443763, "baseline_score": -1.6261087062390627, "spot_peer_score": 6.311355315078818, "peer_archived_score": 4.534735732744519, "baseline_archived_score": -1.6261087062390627, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.311355315078818 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706341386.240133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706341386.240133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6549892228443501, 0.34501077715564993 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Georgia is a former Soviet republic that declared its independence in 1991 and has since pursued a pro-Western course, aspiring to join the European Union and NATO. However, Georgia’s territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.\n\nIrakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgia’s Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgia’s largest trading partner. He has condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgia’s sovereignty.\n\nAs of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.\n\nThe human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. Garibashvili has been accused of failing to protect human rights defenders and media freedom, cracking down on dissenting voices and enabling a climate of impunity for perpetrators of violence.\n\nGeorgia's next parliamentary elections, which will elect the 150 members of the Parliament of Georgia for a four-year term, are to be held on 26 October 2024." }, { "id": 17316, "title": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine retakes Polohy by 1 Oct. 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine retakes Polohy by 1 Oct. 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-retakes-polohy-by-1-oct-2023", "author_id": 133711, "author_username": "Stilico", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-01T21:50:32.810195Z", "published_at": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.389719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17316, "title": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-01T21:50:32.810195Z", "open_time": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-11T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-11T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has [formed several new battalions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/ukraine-forms-eight-new-storm-brigades-for-counterattack), several of them with [western tanks and AFVs](). \nAccordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by [building defensive fortifications](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-building-defensive-fortifications-zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-1795285) in territories it controls. \nThe counteroffensive itself seems to be quite [imminent](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/world/europe/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive.html) or might have already even have [begun](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official).\n\nAs the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is [\"most obvious\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive) the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve Yes if, at any point before or by 1. Oct 2023, ISW shows the the following two locations: \n\n- (Polohy Train station [47.47675302706511, 36.2585252900517](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Polohy/@47.4766526,36.2585067,17.21z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9b287f9a747b:0x15bbdf72e7132a39!8m2!3d47.4766792!4d36.2584675!16s%2Fg%2F1pv17_nm?entry=ttu) \n\n- House of Culture \"Miner\" [47.49121534220172, 36.191507899530706](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Budynok+Kul%CA%B9tury+%22Hirnyk%22/@47.4885074,36.1914102,14.81z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9bba4e3d33b9:0x7449dfd318d8c9fe!8m2!3d47.4908382!4d36.1908582!16s%2Fg%2F11csbfflvv?entry=ttu)\n\nunder any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukrainian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve No if by 1. Oct 2023 the aforementioned places are assessed to be still be within the following categories: \n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nThe exact location of these places on [ISW map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) can be found by clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for\n\"Budynok Kulʹtury \"Hirnyk\", Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 70600\" for the House of Culture. The train station couldn't be searched for easily, but it is quite distinctly findable on the map because of the surrounding railways.\n\n The spirit of the question is to assess a possible summer offensives possibility of retaking Polohy. As summer offensives can lead into fall/autumn and it takes time for information to be known with any degree of certainty, the success of this possible summer offensive question was extended to 1. October.", "fine_print": "This question is about whether the Ukraine manages to take back Polohy, not whether they are still holding it by 1 Oct. As such this question can be resolved as a Yes the moment aforementioned conditions are satisfied.", "post_id": 17316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096842.789086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096842.789086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.01577175361931378 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.76711953593455, 3.8317646368670006, 0.6598452435245858, 0.22566451072827937, 0.09979296489730455, 0.20756684116689814, 0.19332022685300912, 0.0, 0.20047363181189098, 0.05529962581368988, 0.12387123624156443, 0.0, 0.03675560035970638, 0.05133992909661968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1098048767104905, 0.02161474301439808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010790073396447676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023407900061487357, 0.011989632823413173, 0.31433791509644904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.005409792956936867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036464791920768538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033866418711839133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031655044817970844, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000560044871523829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.096022073346944, "coverage": 0.999943781514612, "baseline_score": 63.46286551792758, "spot_peer_score": -56.10314951824912, "peer_archived_score": 24.096022073346944, "baseline_archived_score": 63.46286551792758, "spot_peer_archived_score": -56.10314951824912 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096842.813603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096842.813603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 370, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has [formed several new battalions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/ukraine-forms-eight-new-storm-brigades-for-counterattack), several of them with [western tanks and AFVs](). \nAccordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by [building defensive fortifications](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-building-defensive-fortifications-zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-1795285) in territories it controls. \nThe counteroffensive itself seems to be quite [imminent](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/world/europe/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive.html) or might have already even have [begun](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official).\n\nAs the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is [\"most obvious\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive) the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?" }, { "id": 17294, "title": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?", "short_title": "Fed raises interest rates in June 2023?", "url_title": "Fed raises interest rates in June 2023?", "slug": "fed-raises-interest-rates-in-june-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-30T22:11:53.382083Z", "published_at": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.936098Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17294, "title": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?", "created_at": "2023-05-30T22:11:53.382083Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T00:15:12.917089Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T00:15:12.917089Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [June 13-14](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee announces an increase in the target [Fed Funds Rate](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/federal-funds-rate/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Open%20Markets%20Committee,currently%205.00%25%20to%205.25%25.), above the current target of 5.00 - 5.25, during the June 13-14, 2023 meeting.", "fine_print": "An increase announced before June 13 will not trigger a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 17294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686758169.804231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686758169.804231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1609418322201544 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3448159858799153, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 0.5783119299361837, 2.5605395745470183, 1.5612035277678418, 0.0, 0.5956380251215266, 0.4681721830972806, 1.5981570821146656, 0.0, 0.4139483126176931, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375, 0.9997018848651382, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.8660544952920366, 0.0, 0.6617120532081361, 0.5252736757799548, 0.0, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.17672342147353706, 0.16529847644301598, 0.05718238516403556, 0.13808700147580777, 0.054342032088705736, 0.0, 1.1143228002118828, 0.00805738445541778, 0.01420933479854029, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.04643062857476818, 0.20639999363533068, 0.5244822735200538, 0.07417268858402004, 0.0, 0.06332470896512106, 0.012756731128426116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0756928178296035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1352811661155243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041290671510500594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.010199944840930094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026208098393045902 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.015060136783736, "coverage": 0.9995754461420446, "baseline_score": 52.34324981603878, "spot_peer_score": -10.809720831781013, "peer_archived_score": 12.015060136783736, "baseline_archived_score": 52.34324981603878, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.809720831781013 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686758169.825645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686758169.825645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9774940387264506, 0.022505961273549445 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [June 13-14](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)." }, { "id": 17293, "title": "Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?", "short_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "url_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "slug": "replication-social-portfolios-and-well-being", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 129286, "username": "Transparent_Replications" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-30T15:41:40.433622Z", "published_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.448728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", 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"resolution_set_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. “[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)” is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if we find a positive statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for the “social portfolio diversity” variable (defined below) in a linear regression predicting well-being (with a measure of the total amount of in-person social interaction included as a control variable). Otherwise it will resolve as **No**.\n\n# Original Study Results\n\nThe primary hypothesis in the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) was that in-person social portfolio diversity predicts higher well-being, even when controlling for the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction.\n\nThe authors ran a linear regression predicting participants' well-being, with (1) social portfolio diversity and (2) the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction as predictor variables. They found a positive, statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for social portfolio diversity. We will consider this result to have replicated if we also find a positive, statistically significant coefficient for that variable when we run the same linear regression using newly-collected data.\n\n# Study Summary\n\n<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Prediction_Version_-_Collins_et_al_Study_1_Diagram_UhNkYE8.jpeg\" alt=\"Summary of study 'Relation diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being\" />\n*[Higher resolution version available here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xHYpaWcNHdes_fyF8vnzuK6p03ElWpa9/view?usp=sharing)*\n\nIn the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) and in our replication, participants answered questions about their subjective well-being, then they filled out a diary reporting on their day the previous day. For each episode of their day they were asked if they were with anyone else in person. When they reported spending time in-person with others, they were asked to check off the relationship types they had with the people who were present (e.g., spouse/significant other, friends, co-workers, etc.) Participants then answered an attention check question and a few demographic questions.\n\nThe social portfolio diversity variable, in both the original study and in our replication, is calculated using the following equation:\n\n\\[H = -1*\\sum_{i=1}^s (p_i*\\ln p_i),\\]\n\nThe original study authors chose this formula because it is similar to Shannon’s biodiversity index. The equation involves computing, for each of the relationship categories a person reported having interactions with, the proportion of their total interactions that this category represented (which the authors call “\\(p_i\\)”). For each category of relationship, this proportion is multiplied by its natural logarithm. Finally, all these products are summed together and multiplied by negative one so that the final result is a positive number.\n\nThe proportion of episodes of in-person social interaction is the number of episodes in the day reported with in-person social interaction over the total number of episodes reported for the day.\n\nThe well-being dependent variable is calculated by averaging two questions about subjective well-being, one asking about how happy the person has felt over the last 24 hours (from 0 to 10), and the other asking them to place themselves on a ladder from 0 to 10 representing how well their life is going.\n\nThe original study included 578 participants after excluding participants who failed the attention check. Our replication included 963 participants after excluding those who failed the attention check (which meant we had 90% power to detect an effect size as low as 75% of the original effect size) recruited from MTurk via [Positly](https://www.positly.com/). [You can preview our replication study (as participants saw it) here](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/ardof21/preview).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22299999999999998, 0.777 ], "means": [ 0.741722882159093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.143130845855109, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 1.0957028005165046, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 1.9806349240003884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.34583797532781, "coverage": 0.9961005406193775, "baseline_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_score": 18.931121317291435, "peer_archived_score": 8.34583797532781, "baseline_archived_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.931121317291435 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38016720914673785, 0.6198327908532621 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. “[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)” is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/)." } ] }
