Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3640
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3620", "results": [ { "id": 12513, "title": "Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?", "short_title": "China Conducts Nuclear Weapon Test", "url_title": "China Conducts Nuclear Weapon Test", "slug": "china-conducts-nuclear-weapon-test", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-07T13:17:12.282158Z", "published_at": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.842411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T05:41:59.125610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T05:41:59.125610Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12513, "title": "Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-09-07T13:17:12.282158Z", "open_time": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-11T17:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-11T17:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Arms Control Association's [Nuclear Testing Tally](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally), there have been 2,056 nuclear weapons tests around the globe (as of September 6, 2022). This tally includes nuclear weapons testing for military purposes as well as [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), which Wikipedia describes as\n\n>. . . nuclear explosions conducted for non-military purposes. Proposed uses include excavation for the building of canals and harbors, electrical generation, the use of nuclear explosions to drive spacecraft, and as a form of wide-area fracking.\n\nThe last known nuclear weapons test was [conducted by North Korea in September of 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test). However, the US has [voiced concerns](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-nuclear/china-may-have-conducted-low-level-nuclear-test-blasts-us-says-idUSKCN21X386) that China may have conducted nuclear weapons testing recently at their [Lop Nur Nuclear Test Base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lop_Nur#Nuclear_weapons_test_base). In particular, a report by the [US Department of State from June of 2020](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-Adherence-to-and-Compliance-with-Arms-Control-Nonproliferation-and-Disarmament-Agreements-and-Commitments-Compliance-Report.pdf) says the following (see page 49):\n\n>China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur, and lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities – which has included frequently blocking the flow of data from its International Monitoring System (IMS) stations to the International Data Center operated by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization – raise concerns regarding its adherence to the “zero yield” standard adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria.\n\nChina's last known test was on [July 29, 1996 at Lop Nur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_China). On September 24, 1996 China signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty), but has not ratified it.\n\n[Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/about/Daryl_Kimball) explained the methodology behind the Arms Control Association's Nuclear Testing Tally in an email as follows:\n\n>. . . our [[Nuclear Testing Tally fact sheet](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally)] takes into account all documented and acknowledged nuclear weapon test explosions and is based on detailed reports published by the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA, the CTBTO, the Russian atomic energy ministry, and public reports on nuclear test explosions conducted by other countries, which is why we list eight countries that have conducted nuclear test explosions since 1945. In keeping with contemporary interpretations of international law (the NPT and the CTBT), we do not distiguish between so-called peaceful nuclear explosions and nuclear weapon test explosions. Some tallies of nuclear testing vary on the margins, which is often due to whether one counts the number of “nuclear testing” events or “nuclear detonations” (some nuclear test events involved multiple nuclear detonations).\n>\n>We do pay very close attention to allegations of concealed nuclear weapons testing (concerning Russia and China in particular) and there is of course the debate about whether Israel perhaps, in coordination with South Africa, conducted a nuclear weapon test detonation in 1979 in the outer atmosphere above the South Atlantic. But this simple fact sheet does list or try to describe the debates about some of the allegations about nuclear testing (for instance by Israel or by Russia since it signed and ratified the CTBT).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if China performs a nuclear weapons test at any time between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, according to information provided by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally) as of January 1, 2030. If the Arms Control Association does not indicate that testing occurred in the relevant period, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIn the event the Arms Control Association no longer provides relevant updates, alternate sources will be used at the discretion of the Metaculus Admins. Admins may rely on official statements from China, or public statements from UN Security Council members asserting that testing has occurred, or other substantial sources of evidence. Metaculus Admins will consider non-lethal \"demonstrations\" to count as tests, while lethal attacks would not be considered tests. Additionally, tests need not be successful to qualify. If the Arms Control Association deviates from this classification the question will be resolved in accordance with the interpretation of Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663556307.671144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663556307.671144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.08749658865685704 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33913815775906453, 0.33423662601949417, 0.560245764355437, 0.22188647333713657, 1.887705592064394, 0.8727500189273638, 0.13404139897044384, 1.4012260631462152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2727745066065411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663556307.688811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663556307.688811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.978536517987637, 0.02146348201236299 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Arms Control Association's [Nuclear Testing Tally](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally), there have been 2,056 nuclear weapons tests around the globe (as of September 6, 2022). This tally includes nuclear weapons testing for military purposes as well as [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), which Wikipedia describes as\n\n>. . . nuclear explosions conducted for non-military purposes. Proposed uses include excavation for the building of canals and harbors, electrical generation, the use of nuclear explosions to drive spacecraft, and as a form of wide-area fracking.\n\nThe last known nuclear weapons test was [conducted by North Korea in September of 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test). However, the US has [voiced concerns](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-nuclear/china-may-have-conducted-low-level-nuclear-test-blasts-us-says-idUSKCN21X386) that China may have conducted nuclear weapons testing recently at their [Lop Nur Nuclear Test Base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lop_Nur#Nuclear_weapons_test_base). In particular, a report by the [US Department of State from June of 2020](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-Adherence-to-and-Compliance-with-Arms-Control-Nonproliferation-and-Disarmament-Agreements-and-Commitments-Compliance-Report.pdf) says the following (see page 49):\n\n>China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur, and lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities – which has included frequently blocking the flow of data from its International Monitoring System (IMS) stations to the International Data Center operated by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization – raise concerns regarding its adherence to the “zero yield” standard adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria.\n\nChina's last known test was on [July 29, 1996 at Lop Nur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_China). On September 24, 1996 China signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty), but has not ratified it.\n\n[Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/about/Daryl_Kimball) explained the methodology behind the Arms Control Association's Nuclear Testing Tally in an email as follows:\n\n>. . . our [[Nuclear Testing Tally fact sheet](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally)] takes into account all documented and acknowledged nuclear weapon test explosions and is based on detailed reports published by the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA, the CTBTO, the Russian atomic energy ministry, and public reports on nuclear test explosions conducted by other countries, which is why we list eight countries that have conducted nuclear test explosions since 1945. In keeping with contemporary interpretations of international law (the NPT and the CTBT), we do not distiguish between so-called peaceful nuclear explosions and nuclear weapon test explosions. Some tallies of nuclear testing vary on the margins, which is often due to whether one counts the number of “nuclear testing” events or “nuclear detonations” (some nuclear test events involved multiple nuclear detonations).\n>\n>We do pay very close attention to allegations of concealed nuclear weapons testing (concerning Russia and China in particular) and there is of course the debate about whether Israel perhaps, in coordination with South Africa, conducted a nuclear weapon test detonation in 1979 in the outer atmosphere above the South Atlantic. But this simple fact sheet does list or try to describe the debates about some of the allegations about nuclear testing (for instance by Israel or by Russia since it signed and ratified the CTBT)." }, { "id": 12468, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?", "short_title": "Saudi-Iran normalization by 2024", "url_title": "Saudi-Iran normalization by 2024", "slug": "saudi-iran-normalization-by-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-07T04:26:52.496857Z", "published_at": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.920234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12468, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-09-07T04:26:52.496857Z", "open_time": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric. The two countries are engaged in a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict). In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five rounds of talks in Baghdad. In July 2022, the Iranian foreign ministry [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-tehran-riyadh-are-interested-holding-further-meetings-2022-07-13/) both sides are interested in more talks, but in August the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iran-talks-resume-when-conditions-right-iraq-says-iranian-envoy-2022-08-24/) that talks will resume when time is right. In August 2022, the UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, [said](https://archive.ph/2ZJ7c) that its ambassador will resume duties, which had been suspended since 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before January 1, 2024, as reported by [credible media sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Else, it will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678586482.337925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678586482.337925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7334531806483582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.0, 0.3127981976358077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19430251014152827, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38969645843682565, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.45875031368367064, 0.34566852835815665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 2.219427316007538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5114529326567943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.142068102354228 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.9249624585980145, "coverage": 0.3684241893206987, "baseline_score": -44.98030946353708, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 4.9249624585980145, "baseline_archived_score": -44.98030946353708, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678348047.879114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678348047.879114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8518300114453545, 0.14816998855464553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric. The two countries are engaged in a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict). In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five rounds of talks in Baghdad. In July 2022, the Iranian foreign ministry [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-tehran-riyadh-are-interested-holding-further-meetings-2022-07-13/) both sides are interested in more talks, but in August the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iran-talks-resume-when-conditions-right-iraq-says-iranian-envoy-2022-08-24/) that talks will resume when time is right. In August 2022, the UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, [said](https://archive.ph/2ZJ7c) that its ambassador will resume duties, which had been suspended since 2016." }, { "id": 12461, "title": "Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "short_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Commons", "url_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Commons", "slug": "proportionally-elected-uk-house-of-commons", "author_id": 105003, "author_username": "CheChe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-05T14:13:32.489287Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T00:08:07.794758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12461, "title": "Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-09-05T14:13:32.489287Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T19:56:51.039955Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T19:56:51.039955Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Since 1950](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Members_and_elections), general elections for the House of Commons in the United Kingdom have been on a [first-past-the-post (FPTP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) basis with a single victor. This election method stipulates that in each constituency the candidate with the most votes becomes that constituency's Member of Parliament.\n\nAlthough the UK general elections use FPTP in single-member constituencies, various [other voting systems](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/voting-systems/) are used or have been used for elections within the UK. Scotland uses the [semi-proportional additional member system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system#Scotland) (AMS) for the Scottish parliament, and Northern Ireland [uses the proportional single transferable vote (STV) system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly) for the Northern Ireland Assembly.\n\nReforms to the general election voting system have been proposed in the past, notably culminating in an unsuccessful [2011 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) on whether an alternative vote (AV) method should be used instead. Proposals for reform have focused on both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_non-transferable_vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if before 2030 a UK general election takes place in which at least 15% of seats in the House of Commons are decided based on some kind of proportional representation. Proportional representation includes but is not limited to party list PR, additional member, mixed-member PR, parallel voting, and single transferable vote. Alternative vote is not included.\n\nSome proportional and semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, mixed-member PR, and parallel voting elect some seats using a non-proportional system (e.g. FPTP in single member constituencies) and others using a proportional system (e.g. party list PR). For the purposes of this question, only the seats elected using proportional representation method count toward the 15% threshold.\n\nIf the UK breaks up before 2030 then the question will relate to the political entity that is continuous with the current UK House of Commons. If no such entity exists the question resolves **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758672477.227589, "end_time": 1759122731.275156, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758672477.227589, "end_time": 1759122731.275156, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.06678878371584794 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3952632697996374, 3.287019544066509, 1.5479275270583028, 1.5542276346612498, 0.9982033462024608, 0.5374137506240451, 1.0970403909227762, 0.08212664145904872, 0.5049957670217226, 0.016576386347562713, 0.18644762022076564, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4658976858118918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288573.382739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288573.382739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9938677116988486, 0.006132288301151414 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 178, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Since 1950](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Members_and_elections), general elections for the House of Commons in the United Kingdom have been on a [first-past-the-post (FPTP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) basis with a single victor. This election method stipulates that in each constituency the candidate with the most votes becomes that constituency's Member of Parliament.\n\nAlthough the UK general elections use FPTP in single-member constituencies, various [other voting systems](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/voting-systems/) are used or have been used for elections within the UK. Scotland uses the [semi-proportional additional member system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system#Scotland) (AMS) for the Scottish parliament, and Northern Ireland [uses the proportional single transferable vote (STV) system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly) for the Northern Ireland Assembly.\n\nReforms to the general election voting system have been proposed in the past, notably culminating in an unsuccessful [2011 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) on whether an alternative vote (AV) method should be used instead. Proposals for reform have focused on both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_non-transferable_vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result." }, { "id": 12460, "title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "short_title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "url_title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "slug": "will-brendan-fraser-win-an-oscar-in-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-05T06:00:53.597381Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.098091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12460, "title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-05T06:00:53.597381Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Brendan James Fraser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Fraser), born December 3, 1968, is an American-Canadian actor. He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films. \n\nFollowing a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's prominence declined markedly in the 2000s and 2010s, leading to stories such as GQ's 2018 article [What Ever Happened To Brendan Fraser?](https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser) However, in the late 2010s, [popular interest in Fraser and hopes for a career revival began to increase](https://www.insider.com/brendan-fraser-tiktok-brenaissance-viral-reason-2021-11), in a trend commonly referred to as \"the Brenaissance.\"\n\nIn January 2021, Fraser was announced as the lead in Darren Aronofsky's upcoming film [The Whale.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Whale_(2022_film)) The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September 2022. Fraser's performance was highly praised and [the film received a six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/) at the festival. Following this performance, film critic Nicholas Barber wrote \"[Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20220904-the-whale-review-brendan-fraser-deserves-an-oscar).\"\n\n>Fraser richly deserves to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, and if that doesn't happen, I won't just eat my hat, I'll eat as many pizzas and cheese-and-meatball sandwiches as Charlie gets through in the film. The Brenaissance is here.\n\nKyle Buchanan of The New York Times [wrote](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/movies/brendan-fraser-the-whale-venice-film-festival.html):\n\n>In Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” the onetime leading hunk is earning Oscar chatter for his role as a 600-pound recluse, though the emotional actor is wary.\n\nThe Whale is [scheduled](https://collider.com/the-whale-cast-plot-release-date-everything-we-know-so-far/) for theatrical release in the United States on December 9 2022. \n\n[The 95th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards) ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honour films released in 2022, and is scheduled to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on March 12, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at the 95th Academy Awards Brendan Fraser is awarded any Academy Award. 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He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films. \n\nFollowing a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's prominence declined markedly in the 2000s and 2010s, leading to stories such as GQ's 2018 article [What Ever Happened To Brendan Fraser?](https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser) However, in the late 2010s, [popular interest in Fraser and hopes for a career revival began to increase](https://www.insider.com/brendan-fraser-tiktok-brenaissance-viral-reason-2021-11), in a trend commonly referred to as \"the Brenaissance.\"\n\nIn January 2021, Fraser was announced as the lead in Darren Aronofsky's upcoming film [The Whale.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Whale_(2022_film)) The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September 2022. Fraser's performance was highly praised and [the film received a six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/) at the festival. Following this performance, film critic Nicholas Barber wrote \"[Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20220904-the-whale-review-brendan-fraser-deserves-an-oscar).\"\n\n>Fraser richly deserves to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, and if that doesn't happen, I won't just eat my hat, I'll eat as many pizzas and cheese-and-meatball sandwiches as Charlie gets through in the film. The Brenaissance is here.\n\nKyle Buchanan of The New York Times [wrote](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/movies/brendan-fraser-the-whale-venice-film-festival.html):\n\n>In Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” the onetime leading hunk is earning Oscar chatter for his role as a 600-pound recluse, though the emotional actor is wary.\n\nThe Whale is [scheduled](https://collider.com/the-whale-cast-plot-release-date-everything-we-know-so-far/) for theatrical release in the United States on December 9 2022. \n\n[The 95th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards) ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honour films released in 2022, and is scheduled to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on March 12, 2023." }, { "id": 12457, "title": "Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?", "short_title": "Homicide in Portland in 2023", "url_title": "Homicide in Portland in 2023", "slug": "homicide-in-portland-in-2023", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-04T20:34:35.881868Z", "published_at": "2023-02-02T23:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.946084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-02T23:11:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-01T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T21:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T23:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": 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null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.\n\nAccording to an article featured in [the Oregonian Newspaper](https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2022/07/gang-violence-drives-surging-portland-homicide-rate-from-early-2019-to-mid-2021-study-finds.html), “Portland’s homicide rate jumped 207% from January 2019 through June 2021, the largest increase compared to five comparable cities, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver and Nashville, according to [a new study](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22088275-2022-pdx-problem-analysis-public-version-1)”\n\nThe referenced study was conducted by the California Partnership for Safe Communities in cooperation with the Portland Police Bureau. It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the [Portland Police Bureau](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are 100 or more homicide offenses from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 in Portland, Oregon, according to the [Portland Police Bureau website](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978). The Portland Police Bureau reports using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) maintained by the FBI", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706651980.486144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706651980.486144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011057663931702929 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.7867913912817, 6.187783828752178, 0.0, 0.04504395144454423, 0.054067770425164544, 0.18727363029760702, 0.0, 0.01614116511509263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807644771542133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02248592739820702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009928975007740863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04101658622091283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0034577046398643714, 0.008707034755549023, 0.016897983266587664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007599064747706633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01615179428335487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011671031195180676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029102099193291783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008083813202537763 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 35.818602950720205, "coverage": 0.9129009914022255, "baseline_score": 9.766417205798279, "spot_peer_score": 7.792966257000534, "peer_archived_score": 35.818602950720205, "baseline_archived_score": 9.766417205798279, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.792966257000534 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703745530.710599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703745530.710599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.\n\nAccording to an article featured in [the Oregonian Newspaper](https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2022/07/gang-violence-drives-surging-portland-homicide-rate-from-early-2019-to-mid-2021-study-finds.html), “Portland’s homicide rate jumped 207% from January 2019 through June 2021, the largest increase compared to five comparable cities, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver and Nashville, according to [a new study](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22088275-2022-pdx-problem-analysis-public-version-1)”\n\nThe referenced study was conducted by the California Partnership for Safe Communities in cooperation with the Portland Police Bureau. It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the [Portland Police Bureau](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978)." }, { "id": 12453, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?", "short_title": "UK Labour to have female leader before 2030?", "url_title": "UK Labour to have female leader before 2030?", "slug": "uk-labour-to-have-female-leader-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-04T13:34:00.644104Z", "published_at": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T00:10:30.695927Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12453, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-09-04T13:34:00.644104Z", "open_time": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-09T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-09T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. \n\nThe Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.\n\nThe Conservatives first elected a female leader [in 1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Conservative_Party_leadership_election), Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in [September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)).\n\nThe Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, [Caroline Lucas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas), in 2008.\n\nPlaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in [2012.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Plaid_Cymru_leadership_election)\n\nThe Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon#First_Minister_of_Scotland), in 2014.\n\nThe UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, [Diane James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_James), in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election). \n\nThe Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election). \n\nAs of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to January 1 2030 the Labour Party has a female Leader. She must be the permanent Leader of the Labour Party, not an Acting Leader, a Deputy Leader temporarily acting in the capacity of a Leader, or any form of caretaker leader. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if this does not occur, including if the Labour Party ceases to exist prior to January 1 2030. If the Labour Party is renamed, this question shall continue to exist for the renamed party.\n\nIf the Labour Party splits into multiple parties, this question shall focus on whichever successor party has the greater number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that it splits. If the number is equal, this question shall concern *either* of the successor parties having an equal number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that the party splits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758672620.22707, "end_time": 1760364100.151022, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758672620.22707, "end_time": 1760364100.151022, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.26073260881042964 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.022769576841270445, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 1.0312509597031692, 0.0, 0.6230863582502935, 0.0, 0.0, 2.788826869625488, 0.3862084272492791, 0.0, 0.7986028953533055, 0.4654598806129696, 0.01917969985736262, 0.2472970147271662, 0.4573391763706963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2203813798359806, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.0, 0.8614998454466418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22068401884721423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.434241495712209, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49680014682221674 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287778.886637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287778.886637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9398834535187632, 0.060116546481236814 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 276, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. \n\nThe Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.\n\nThe Conservatives first elected a female leader [in 1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Conservative_Party_leadership_election), Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in [September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)).\n\nThe Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, [Caroline Lucas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas), in 2008.\n\nPlaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in [2012.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Plaid_Cymru_leadership_election)\n\nThe Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon#First_Minister_of_Scotland), in 2014.\n\nThe UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, [Diane James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_James), in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election). \n\nThe Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election). \n\nAs of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis." }, { "id": 12348, "title": "Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?", "short_title": "3M Bankruptcy Before 2026", "url_title": "3M Bankruptcy Before 2026", "slug": "3m-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-28T05:32:28.681599Z", "published_at": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:43:03.074862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12348, "title": "Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-28T05:32:28.681599Z", "open_time": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-04T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-04T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "3M Company, one of the 30 components making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ranked #102 on the Fortune 500, is a multinational corporation based in Minnesota with approximately 95,000 full-time equivalent employees. It manufactures a wide range of consumable industrial products used every day in offices, homes, hospitals, schools, factories and other workplaces. Well-known brands include Scotch-Brite abrasives and cleaning supplies, 3M respirators, Scotchgard Protector, Scotch tapes, Post-it notes, and Scotchlite films.\n\nIn 2021, 3M had operating income of $7.4 billion with net sales of $35.4 billion. It has increased stockholder dividends for 64 consecutive years. \n\n3M’s market cap peaked at $154 billion in January 2018, and today’s market cap of $74 billion is down over 50% from the peak.\n\nAlthough 3M is highly profitable and is widely diversified with over 60,000 products, it faces bankruptcy risk due to lawsuits related to Combat Arms brand earplugs supplied to the US military. In 2008, 3M acquired Aearo Technologies, which manufactured the earplugs. Although Aearo has been bankrupted by 3M, on August 26, 2022, a federal judge [ruled](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2022/08/26/indianapolis-company-loses-court-bid-to-halt-historic-3m-lawsuit/65459182007/) that 3M has successor liability and that mass tort claims by veterans will be allowed to proceed. \n\nThe company could face more than $100 billion in losses from these lawsuits, which could result in bankruptcy for the company, Bloomberg [reports](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-faces-100-billion-in-losses-from-veterans-earplug-suits-expert-says-1.1806435).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 66740 has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before January 1, 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758268386.854538, "end_time": 1759096634.61495, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758268386.854538, "end_time": 1759096634.61495, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026381819293285577 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9448917710387714, 4.158156478225032, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.354256505303986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19128230802308263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290036.106727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290036.106727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974586494144052, 0.0025413505855948156 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 218, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "3M Company, one of the 30 components making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ranked #102 on the Fortune 500, is a multinational corporation based in Minnesota with approximately 95,000 full-time equivalent employees. It manufactures a wide range of consumable industrial products used every day in offices, homes, hospitals, schools, factories and other workplaces. Well-known brands include Scotch-Brite abrasives and cleaning supplies, 3M respirators, Scotchgard Protector, Scotch tapes, Post-it notes, and Scotchlite films.\n\nIn 2021, 3M had operating income of $7.4 billion with net sales of $35.4 billion. It has increased stockholder dividends for 64 consecutive years. \n\n3M’s market cap peaked at $154 billion in January 2018, and today’s market cap of $74 billion is down over 50% from the peak.\n\nAlthough 3M is highly profitable and is widely diversified with over 60,000 products, it faces bankruptcy risk due to lawsuits related to Combat Arms brand earplugs supplied to the US military. In 2008, 3M acquired Aearo Technologies, which manufactured the earplugs. Although Aearo has been bankrupted by 3M, on August 26, 2022, a federal judge [ruled](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2022/08/26/indianapolis-company-loses-court-bid-to-halt-historic-3m-lawsuit/65459182007/) that 3M has successor liability and that mass tort claims by veterans will be allowed to proceed. \n\nThe company could face more than $100 billion in losses from these lawsuits, which could result in bankruptcy for the company, Bloomberg [reports](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-faces-100-billion-in-losses-from-veterans-earplug-suits-expert-says-1.1806435)." }, { "id": 12326, "title": "By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?", "short_title": "Student debt cancellation blocked by 2024?", "url_title": "Student debt cancellation blocked by 2024?", "slug": "student-debt-cancellation-blocked-by-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-25T01:19:48.931910Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.684091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12326, "title": "By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?", "created_at": "2022-08-25T01:19:48.931910Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-24T22:44:38.387933Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-24T22:44:38.387933Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. Per the plan, the DOE will:\n\n1. Cancel $10,000 for Americans with student loan balances who earn $125,000 or less and are single tax filers ($250,000 for those who are married filing jointly).\n\n2. Extend the COVID-era student debt payment moratorium until December 31, 2022.\n\n3. For borrowers who received a Pell Grant, forgive an additional $10,000 in debt.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if by December 31, 2023, the United States Supreme Court takes any action that would block any part of the Biden Administration's plan for broad-based student debt relief. It also resolves as **Yes** if by the same date, a lower court action blocking any part of the plan is declined or passed up for higher court review, such that reputable legal expert sources consulted by Metaculus admins agree the block is most likely to stand indefinitely or permanently.\n\nElse resolves as **No**. \n\nIn rare cases this question might resolve as **Ambiguous** per the *Metaculus FAQ:*\n\n> An ambiguous resolution generally implies that there was some inherent ambiguity in the question, that real-world events subverted one of the assumptions of the question, or that there is not a clear consensus as to what in fact occurred.\n\nGenerally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not the courts have taken any action to stop implementation of the Biden-Harris Student Debt Relief plan, based on credible media reporting. Examples of actions include but are not limited to blocking an appeal, declaring a part of a rule invalid, or remanding any case to a lower court where it gets invalidated. The Metaculus Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688139492.351362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688139492.351362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.7187193095976339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6778638466459552, 0.3589031494592382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556842674223446, 0.2758521521053194, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.9073280378162433, 0.03365636844874199, 0.7092252697620736, 0.8258340825116974, 0.8127929281994595, 0.0, 0.3225659157834225, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46167593653055977, 1.1713969419443901, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5429942209064903, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1274765214171607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5069087262127917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9292991145104746 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.108962245607596, "coverage": 0.5751251004530727, "baseline_score": 23.957916410617123, "spot_peer_score": 38.7055859878795, "peer_archived_score": 8.108962245607596, "baseline_archived_score": 23.957916410617123, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.7055859878795 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687939072.551581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687939072.551581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25642318377454687, 0.7435768162254531 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. 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For borrowers who received a Pell Grant, forgive an additional $10,000 in debt." }, { "id": 12298, "title": "Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?", "short_title": "Australia 'No Religion' majority 2026 census", "url_title": "Australia 'No Religion' majority 2026 census", "slug": "australia-no-religion-majority-2026-census", "author_id": 130177, "author_username": "alsk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-21T07:25:34.640534Z", "published_at": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.440365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12298, "title": "Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?", "created_at": "2022-08-21T07:25:34.640534Z", "open_time": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-28T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/)\n\n***\n\nEvery 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census has a voluntary question \"What is the person's religion?\" with 'No Religion' being the first option.\n\nThe proportion of the population represented by 'No Religion' in the 2021 census was 38.9%, up from 30.1% in 2016.\n\nThe proportion of the population not responding to the question was 7.3% in 2021, down from 10% in 2016.\n\nThe next census will be conducted in 2026, most likely in early August.\nCensus data dating back to 1986 is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data), and an overview of the changes in reported religion in the 2021 census is available at the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia). If the schedule of census releases remains consistent, the 2026 census data will be released in 2027.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the 'No Religion' responses on the 2026 census represent at least 50% of the Australian population, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758332846.983204, "end_time": 1758908109.203759, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758332846.983204, "end_time": 1758908109.203759, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3774563320971276 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.9052638420575493, 0.0, 1.202103661708012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9599216409960402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287438.269688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287438.269688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7084652689393331, 0.29153473106066685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/)\n\n***\n\nEvery 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census has a voluntary question \"What is the person's religion?\" with 'No Religion' being the first option.\n\nThe proportion of the population represented by 'No Religion' in the 2021 census was 38.9%, up from 30.1% in 2016.\n\nThe proportion of the population not responding to the question was 7.3% in 2021, down from 10% in 2016.\n\nThe next census will be conducted in 2026, most likely in early August.\nCensus data dating back to 1986 is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data), and an overview of the changes in reported religion in the 2021 census is available at the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia). If the schedule of census releases remains consistent, the 2026 census data will be released in 2027." }, { "id": 12286, "title": "Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?", "short_title": "2022 Kenyan Presidential Election Nullified", "url_title": "2022 Kenyan Presidential Election Nullified", "slug": "2022-kenyan-presidential-election-nullified", "author_id": 119712, "author_username": "rduubs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-19T09:27:33.065782Z", "published_at": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.358580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12286, "title": "Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?", "created_at": "2022-08-19T09:27:33.065782Z", "open_time": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-24T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-24T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/africa/kenya-election-william-ruto.html) and [Kenya's Nation](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-named-president-elect-3914858) have reported that William Ruto is the President-Elect of Kenya after winning the general election by just over 200,000 votes. \n\nThe results weren't without some controversy. Four commissioners from the [Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Electoral_and_Boundaries_Commission) (IEBC) [refused to back the result](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-commissioners-this-is-why-we-rejected-chebukati-tally-3917100) after saying final tallying was conducted in an opaque manner.\n\nKenyan elections allow any citizen group to [bring a challenge within seven days](https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/17/us-kenya-election-petition) of an election result. The Supreme Court would then have two weeks to rule on the challenge. A decision by the court to nullify the results would require a new vote to be held within 60 days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Supreme Court nullifies the results of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential Election. The question will resolve based on official communication from the Kenyan Supreme Court. The question will resolve as **No** if either there is no challenge, the Supreme Court does not rule on the election results, or the Court upholds the results", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662406697.993761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662406697.993761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1723045596453831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.162418115041623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13461295092244627, 0.38538527315093474, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.1536060961242238, 0.46070466258941734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.25015755709966947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.4504593390762506, "coverage": 0.9332174106220685, "baseline_score": 1.4280083086357949, "spot_peer_score": 8.098205953679656, "peer_archived_score": 1.4504593390762506, "baseline_archived_score": 1.4280083086357949, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.098205953679656 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662363482.393684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662363482.393684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6950367796353557, 0.3049632203646443 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/africa/kenya-election-william-ruto.html) and [Kenya's Nation](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-named-president-elect-3914858) have reported that William Ruto is the President-Elect of Kenya after winning the general election by just over 200,000 votes. \n\nThe results weren't without some controversy. Four commissioners from the [Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Electoral_and_Boundaries_Commission) (IEBC) [refused to back the result](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-commissioners-this-is-why-we-rejected-chebukati-tally-3917100) after saying final tallying was conducted in an opaque manner.\n\nKenyan elections allow any citizen group to [bring a challenge within seven days](https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/17/us-kenya-election-petition) of an election result. The Supreme Court would then have two weeks to rule on the challenge. A decision by the court to nullify the results would require a new vote to be held within 60 days." }, { "id": 12275, "title": "Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Riots in UK Winter 2022-23", "url_title": "Riots in UK Winter 2022-23", "slug": "riots-in-uk-winter-2022-23", "author_id": 116988, "author_username": "palcu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-18T09:43:07.732639Z", "published_at": "2022-08-24T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.560048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-24T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-24T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12275, "title": "Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-08-18T09:43:07.732639Z", "open_time": "2022-08-24T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-26T12:06:09.991525Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-26T12:06:09.991525Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [UK cost of living crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_cost_of_living_crisis) is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.\n\nEnergy prices have been [forecasted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/uk-household-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-5-000-a-year) to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.\n\n[Martin Lewis](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/explore/tv_personality/Martin_Lewis?content=surveys), the second most popular TV personality has [claimed](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/08/price-cap-forecast-january-action-needed/) that the upcoming crisis \"will leave many destitute\".\n\nBritain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the [Poll Tax riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_riots), the [2011 England Riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots) and the [1995 Brixton Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Brixton_riot). However, the [anti-austerity protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-austerity_movement_in_the_United_Kingdom) and the [2010 student protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_student_protests) while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if three popular British [broadsheet newspapers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom) report at least 100 people injured in cost of living crisis riots over the coming autumn or winter. The news reports should be dated between August 22, 2022 and March 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "The protests should be related to the cost of living crisis. For example, if England loses to the final in the World Cup because of a referee mistake and protests erupt, this will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 12275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677622549.643865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677622549.643865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.010659980042884609 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.333999658160636, 9.042236744950806, 0.608221615629782, 0.10694602411934867, 1.0324381507228462, 0.1593489121293057, 0.004069688563131239, 0.0015799182425890782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006250360685648172, 0.002016491869821532, 0.05424955452663764, 0.0, 0.0018679085446789811, 0.3008026111458043, 0.0003886128165668022, 0.0, 0.0007286220533113514, 0.002285946622782412, 0.0, 0.0004866488851050062, 0.000874589565119552, 0.03754777488831368, 0.0, 0.0049390033629866355, 0.0, 6.708700406036308e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01352931657365196, 0.0, 0.0006502110149726544, 0.00044807912297860667, 0.0006947274067674804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.89068470309675e-05, 0.00015972210213547274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007988841328926595, 0.0010437267407274785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.650999187104954e-05, 9.079238696005021e-06, 0.00016060913675222186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0015882758694172132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.467992956359265e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001721563801118083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.131576092319255, "coverage": 0.9999256175156223, "baseline_score": 77.47142779098058, "spot_peer_score": 19.77726297122622, "peer_archived_score": 14.131576092319255, "baseline_archived_score": 77.47142779098058, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.77726297122622 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677622549.673285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677622549.673285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 552, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [UK cost of living crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_cost_of_living_crisis) is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.\n\nEnergy prices have been [forecasted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/uk-household-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-5-000-a-year) to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.\n\n[Martin Lewis](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/explore/tv_personality/Martin_Lewis?content=surveys), the second most popular TV personality has [claimed](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/08/price-cap-forecast-january-action-needed/) that the upcoming crisis \"will leave many destitute\".\n\nBritain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the [Poll Tax riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_riots), the [2011 England Riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots) and the [1995 Brixton Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Brixton_riot). However, the [anti-austerity protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-austerity_movement_in_the_United_Kingdom) and the [2010 student protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_student_protests) while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured." }, { "id": 12264, "title": "Will the Tasmanian Tiger be brought back from extinction before 2035?", "short_title": "Thylacine De-extinction before 2035", "url_title": "Thylacine De-extinction before 2035", "slug": "thylacine-de-extinction-before-2035", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-17T00:27:54.103317Z", "published_at": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:26:26.951244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12264, "title": "Will the Tasmanian Tiger be brought back from extinction before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-08-17T00:27:54.103317Z", "open_time": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-22T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Thylacine](https://australian.museum/learn/australia-over-time/extinct-animals/the-thylacine/), or ‘[Tasmanian Tiger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine)’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion, and remained only on the island of Tasmania. As a result of human bounty hunting and other forces, the last documented killing of a wild thylacine occurred in [1930](https://web.archive.org/web/20141220092350/http://www.naturalworlds.org/thylacine/history/persecution/persecution_10.htm), and the last captive example of the species died in Hobart Zoo in 1936. Searches and unconfirmed sightings have [continued](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine#Benjamin_and_searches), but the species is now generally believed to be extinct.\n\nA recently-announced partnership between the [University of Melbourne](https://tigrrlab.science.unimelb.edu.au) and the US Biotech firm [Colossal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences) aims to change this, using gene-editing, “marsupial-specific assisted reproductive technologies”, and a previously-sequenced genome taken from juvenile specimen held in a museum to ‘de-extinct’ the thylacine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/de-extinction-scientists-are-planning-the-multimillion-dollar-resurrection-of-the-tasmanian-tiger), [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545)).\n\nWhile some scientists have voiced [scepticism](https://twitter.com/JackDAshby/status/1559682341659783169), the leaders of the project are confident:\n\n> Pask [a professor and evolutionary biologist at the University of Melbourne, who runs the Thylacine Integrated Genetic Restoration Research — or TIGRR — Lab] said the gene-editing techniques and resources that Colossal could bring to the thylacine project would accelerate the rebuilding of the animal, which was first mooted as a possibility in the 1990s. \n> \n> “It is not a matter of if but when it can happen,” he said, predicting that live animals could be created within the decade.\n> \n> Ben Lamm, co-founder of Colossal, said a thylacine should be easier to recreate than a mammoth because of the higher quality of the genetic samples available and the ease with which an embryo — initially the size of a grain of rice — could be gestated in the lab using surrogate animals and artificial pouches. \n> \n> “It is highly possible the thylacine could be birthed before the mammoth,” he said. ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a fully reconstructed Tasmanian Tiger has been successfully created—and has lived to at least three months of age— at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports.", "fine_print": "For the resolution of this question, it is not necessary for any Tasmanian Tiger to live beyond 3 months of age or result in a stable breeding population.", "post_id": 12264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757992567.521162, "end_time": 1760266022.850777, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757992567.521162, "end_time": 1760266022.850777, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.23587966811140076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 1.4481088024940036, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1484464733982556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2669611678744193, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.7002850874018746, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.5267940015479986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47244108489568837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.6490564168471212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23985886050566377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9335151006194843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2606530398387905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287827.767686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287827.767686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9341194310192015, 0.06588056898079854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 145, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Thylacine](https://australian.museum/learn/australia-over-time/extinct-animals/the-thylacine/), or ‘[Tasmanian Tiger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine)’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion, and remained only on the island of Tasmania. As a result of human bounty hunting and other forces, the last documented killing of a wild thylacine occurred in [1930](https://web.archive.org/web/20141220092350/http://www.naturalworlds.org/thylacine/history/persecution/persecution_10.htm), and the last captive example of the species died in Hobart Zoo in 1936. Searches and unconfirmed sightings have [continued](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine#Benjamin_and_searches), but the species is now generally believed to be extinct.\n\nA recently-announced partnership between the [University of Melbourne](https://tigrrlab.science.unimelb.edu.au) and the US Biotech firm [Colossal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences) aims to change this, using gene-editing, “marsupial-specific assisted reproductive technologies”, and a previously-sequenced genome taken from juvenile specimen held in a museum to ‘de-extinct’ the thylacine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/de-extinction-scientists-are-planning-the-multimillion-dollar-resurrection-of-the-tasmanian-tiger), [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545)).\n\nWhile some scientists have voiced [scepticism](https://twitter.com/JackDAshby/status/1559682341659783169), the leaders of the project are confident:\n\n> Pask [a professor and evolutionary biologist at the University of Melbourne, who runs the Thylacine Integrated Genetic Restoration Research — or TIGRR — Lab] said the gene-editing techniques and resources that Colossal could bring to the thylacine project would accelerate the rebuilding of the animal, which was first mooted as a possibility in the 1990s. \n> \n> “It is not a matter of if but when it can happen,” he said, predicting that live animals could be created within the decade.\n> \n> Ben Lamm, co-founder of Colossal, said a thylacine should be easier to recreate than a mammoth because of the higher quality of the genetic samples available and the ease with which an embryo — initially the size of a grain of rice — could be gestated in the lab using surrogate animals and artificial pouches. \n> \n> “It is highly possible the thylacine could be birthed before the mammoth,” he said. ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545))" }, { "id": 12257, "title": "Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Aus Referendum on Indigenous Voice By 2026", "url_title": "Aus Referendum on Indigenous Voice By 2026", "slug": "aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-16T10:09:37.487840Z", "published_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.364070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12257, "title": "Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-16T10:09:37.487840Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12255/aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a national referendum is held in Australia which concerns an amendment to the constitution to create an Indigenous \"Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026, as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission.", "fine_print": "The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.", "post_id": 12257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697397417.969555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697397417.969555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9859629880227107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03530758546313671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04031214257072945, 0.31850270789227886, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.2974800112984262, 0.0, 0.22374370858157588, 0.12098568606878847, 0.1446439265446183, 0.3403021919177779, 11.299636196541753 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5127760512156, "coverage": 0.3416734637621553, "baseline_score": 28.431618356014518, "spot_peer_score": 6.068608588398395, "peer_archived_score": 1.5127760512156, "baseline_archived_score": 28.431618356014518, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.068608588398395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697010474.763472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697010474.763472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011203044924007588, 0.9887969550759924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 160, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12255/aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia)." }, { "id": 12255, "title": "If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?", "short_title": "Aus Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice\"", "url_title": "Aus Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice\"", "slug": "aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-16T09:52:08.048663Z", "published_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.509987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "open_time": 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null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12255, "title": "If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?", "created_at": "2022-08-16T09:52:08.048663Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nThe initial [proposed question](https://www.niaa.gov.au/indigenous-affairs/referendum-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice) is:\n\n> \"Do you support an alteration to the constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?\"\n\nThe (proposed) sentences to be added to the Constitution are:\n\n> 1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n> 2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.\n> 3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n\nHowever, as reported by the [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/why-is-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-important/101287716),\n\n> These provisions are expected to be tweaked throughout the consultation process.\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Australian Electoral Commission reports that referendum concerning an Indigenous \"Voice to Parliament\" has received a majority of national votes, and also a majority of votes in a majority of Australian states. If no such national referendum is put to the Australian people before 2026, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will close retroactively 48 hours before the referendum voting day (excluding all ‘pre-polling’ days).", "fine_print": "The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.", "post_id": 12255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697447318.193579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697447318.193579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02437650454222668 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.52263403991691, 4.417239203292189, 0.7489327779117132, 0.19438496767249921, 0.12557831740690922, 2.3732651449929283, 0.06482859797375792, 0.025334624450131557, 0.0, 0.05190119490203952, 0.3889082148465018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1386378778278722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04811195816242564, 0.0, 0.11382581409493062, 0.0, 0.1335199776664642, 0.0, 0.041232074872413094, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0, 0.09249871784476868, 0.0, 0.002181895179420165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12143838391847508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035201554049220755, 0.005797461782235216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032659063855347377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005978849674628248, 0.007285263176892596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005046411140264085, 0.004217311577006316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021636365383337123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002252449224280325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009771619936199615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.23679811476837, "coverage": 0.9999852597898674, "baseline_score": -3.158212977379119, "spot_peer_score": -20.007812462430564, "peer_archived_score": 21.23679811476837, "baseline_archived_score": -3.158212977379119, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.007812462430564 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696750745.425259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696750745.425259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9829799991081482, 0.01702000089185181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nThe initial [proposed question](https://www.niaa.gov.au/indigenous-affairs/referendum-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice) is:\n\n> \"Do you support an alteration to the constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?\"\n\nThe (proposed) sentences to be added to the Constitution are:\n\n> 1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n> 2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.\n> 3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n\nHowever, as reported by the [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/why-is-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-important/101287716),\n\n> These provisions are expected to be tweaked throughout the consultation process.\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia)." }, { "id": 12245, "title": "Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?", "short_title": "SpinLaunch payload by 2032", "url_title": "SpinLaunch payload by 2032", "slug": "spinlaunch-payload-by-2032", "author_id": 114021, "author_username": "rendall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-14T18:47:03.106240Z", "published_at": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T13:39:41.547881Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12245, "title": "Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?", "created_at": "2022-08-14T18:47:03.106240Z", "open_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-19T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-19T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpinLaunch](https://www.spinlaunch.com) is a technology company currently researching and developing a \"ground-based, electric powered kinetic launch system\" for the purpose of launching \"200 kilogram class satellites into low earth orbit\", potentially bringing the cost of launch to under $2,500 per kilogram.\n\nThe approach is to use a mass accelerator to spin a payload to Mach 6 before releasing it into the atmosphere. The payload will rise to 72 kilometers before a chemical rocket stage takes over, completing the lift to low Earth orbit.\n\nWhile [SpinLaunch has attracted $80 million in investment](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/spinlaunch/company_financials) from GV, Kleiner Perkins, among others, the engineering challenges are unprecedented. The mass accelerator must spin in vacuum to prevent catastrophic damage from air friction. The spinning tether must withstand 10,000 gravities of force across 45 feet. The payload must be release precisely. The launch tube must close nearly instantaneously to prevent loss of vacuum.\n\n[Some critics like Scott Manley](https://youtu.be/JAczd3mt3X0) and [Thunderf00t](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ziGI0i9VbE) are skeptical that this is possible at all, given physics and current material science. [Other critics, like Real Engineering](https://youtu.be/yrc632oilWo) are more sanguine.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** when SpinLaunch or its successor lifts a satellite of any weight to [low Earth orbit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit) using the described mass accelerator, according to credible media reports.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No** if the above does not occur by August 15th, 2032.", "fine_print": "The key question here is the viability of spinning mass accelerator technology for launching payloads, not the identity of the company that uses it. Resolution by the deadline should be positive only if the described mass accelerator technology was used in a successful launch, and negative only if the mass accelerator technology is abandoned.\n\nFor example, if SpinLaunch were to sell its technology to another entity which then successfully launched, this question would resolve as **Yes**. Likewise, if SpinLaunch abandoned its mass accelerator and successfully pivoted to conventional rocketry, this question would resolve as **No**.\n\nIn all cases, the question will resolve unambiguously **No** if no mass accelerator launches any satellite by the deadline.", "post_id": 12245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758461971.148648, "end_time": 1760156905.0092, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758461971.148648, "end_time": 1760156905.0092, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.09240651611436387 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.7919292109960194, 1.6482317312021009, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 2.5391500502566684, 0.7357149375012915, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5098863259887562, 0.6717182293410431, 0.007926343375474506, 0.10155422864166669, 0.013286097205509028, 0.0, 0.908264917232312, 0.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.24646082002862074, 0.0, 0.6834788955145517, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.11171412217289521, 0.19122336413687674, 0.05695424765296643, 0.0, 0.1345137037522881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14639795245098255, 0.009514982201565289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04124184208911477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06124341082421378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017967096637953702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007334292605756895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19159665368594173 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289513.819109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289513.819109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9570164105125328, 0.04298358948746714 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpinLaunch](https://www.spinlaunch.com) is a technology company currently researching and developing a \"ground-based, electric powered kinetic launch system\" for the purpose of launching \"200 kilogram class satellites into low earth orbit\", potentially bringing the cost of launch to under $2,500 per kilogram.\n\nThe approach is to use a mass accelerator to spin a payload to Mach 6 before releasing it into the atmosphere. The payload will rise to 72 kilometers before a chemical rocket stage takes over, completing the lift to low Earth orbit.\n\nWhile [SpinLaunch has attracted $80 million in investment](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/spinlaunch/company_financials) from GV, Kleiner Perkins, among others, the engineering challenges are unprecedented. The mass accelerator must spin in vacuum to prevent catastrophic damage from air friction. The spinning tether must withstand 10,000 gravities of force across 45 feet. The payload must be release precisely. The launch tube must close nearly instantaneously to prevent loss of vacuum.\n\n[Some critics like Scott Manley](https://youtu.be/JAczd3mt3X0) and [Thunderf00t](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ziGI0i9VbE) are skeptical that this is possible at all, given physics and current material science. [Other critics, like Real Engineering](https://youtu.be/yrc632oilWo) are more sanguine." }, { "id": 12223, "title": "Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?", "short_title": "Replication: Knowledge and sense of anonymity", "url_title": "Replication: Knowledge and sense of anonymity", "slug": "replication-knowledge-and-sense-of-anonymity", "author_id": 109639, "author_username": "nikos", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-12T21:57:21.644821Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.096294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, 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"header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12223, "title": "Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?", "created_at": "2022-08-12T21:57:21.644821Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-03T19:30:01.586087Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-03T19:30:01.586087Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as _any_ psychology papers recently published in _Nature_ or _Science_.", "resolution_criteria": "We selected study 2A from a _Nature_ [paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04452-3) entitled: \"Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity\" (Shah and LaForest, 2022). \n\nThe original study’s **main hypothesis** is that <br />\npeople believe it is more likely that another person will detect their lie if they are given information about that other person than if they are not. See more details on the study in the fine print. \n\n\n<br />\n\n<br />\n[click for a higher-resolution version]( https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MhG_swrK_kWG8Tfnc7N_MPMUfXdhT8UP/view?usp=sharing)\n\nTo test the main hypothesis, the original experiment and the replication study used two-tailed independent samples t-tests. The analysis compared participants in the information and no information conditions on the question of how likely they believed their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie, in order to determine if having information about their ‘partner’ changed people’s estimate of the likelihood that their lie would be detected. \n\nThe original study found a significant difference between participants in the two experimental conditions, with participants in the information condition thinking that their partner was more likely to detect their lie (mean estimated probability, M_info = 41.06% [37.76–44.35%], n = 228) than participants in the no information condition (M_(no info) = 33.29% [30.34–36.24%], n = 234); Welch’s t: t(453.20) = 3.44; _p_ <0.001; Effect size: d = 0.32.\n\n\n***Will the main result from “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a two-tailed Welch’s t-test conducted on the replication experiment data reveals that there is a statistically significant difference (_p_ < 0.05) between the mean probability that participants assign to their ‘partner’ detecting their lie in the two experimental conditions (with a higher probability assigned by participants in the Information Condition compared to participants in the No Information condition). Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. \n\n[fine-print]\n\n## Study summary\n\nThe original study (N = 462) and the replication study (N = 475) examined whether people assigned a higher probability to another person detecting their lie if they were given information about that other person than if they were not (see the flowchart below). \n\nIn the replication experiment, like in the original study:\nParticipants were asked to write 5 statements about themselves: 4 truths and 1 lie. They were told those statements would be shared with another person, who would then guess which one was the lie. \nParticipants were either given 4 true statements about their ‘partner’ (Information Condition), or they were given no information about their ‘partner’ (No Information Condition). \nParticipants were asked to assign a percentage chance describing how likely their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie.*\n\n\nOut of 481 participants, 6 were excluded due to missing inputs/data, leaving 475 participants. Participants could not proceed in the experiment if they left any of those statements blank, but there was no automated check on the content of what was submitted. The authors of the original study did not remove any subjects from their analysis, but they recommended to the Clearer Thinking team to do this quality check in the replication.\n\nIn the replication, prior to asking people to give their estimated percentage, participants were reminded that their 'partner' was shown their 5 statements and not told which were true. This was done in case participants had forgotten the conditions of the experiment. In the original study, this reminder had not been provided.\n\nIn the original experiment and in the replication, participants were not actually connected to a ‘partner.’ Participants in the information condition were randomly given one of two sets of four pre-generated statements designed to be relatively neutral and told that these were four true statements supplied by their ‘partner.' They were informed about this after all participants had completed the experiment.\n\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.) \n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668437804.502023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668437804.502023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7304752261203118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_China),\n\n> The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two special administrative regions. The political status of Taiwan Province along with a small fraction of Fujian Province[α] remain in dispute; those are under separate rule by the Republic of China, which is usually referred to as \"Taiwan\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any provincial level administrative division of China, including Taiwan, makes a formal declaration of independence from China before January 1st 2050. A formal declaration of independence is said to have occurred if any of the following events happen within a region,\n\n1. The highest ranking local government in the region declares their independence from China.\n\n2. A referendum is held in the region, with >20% of the population taking part, and a plurality votes to declare independence from China. Within three months of the referendum, a political or government group with at least 1000 members formally declares their independence from China through a document, referencing the referendum.\n\n3. 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There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two special administrative regions. The political status of Taiwan Province along with a small fraction of Fujian Province[α] remain in dispute; those are under separate rule by the Republic of China, which is usually referred to as \"Taiwan\"." }, { "id": 12217, "title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Completion of Biden's First Term", "url_title": "Completion of Biden's First Term", "slug": "completion-of-bidens-first-term", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T17:33:02.256335Z", "published_at": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.099983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:03:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 237, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12217, "title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T17:33:02.256335Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T14:12:13.175530Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T14:12:13.175530Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T18:04:47.196473Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden does not complete his full term as the 46th President of the United States from January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025, as specified by the [20th Amendment]((https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-20/section-1)) of the US Constitution. This may be for any reason, for example, due to his resignation, death, impeachment and removal, or another cause.\n\nThis question will not resolve if the Vice President or another person takes the duties of the Acting President as specified in [Sections 3 and 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_3:_President's_declaration_of_inability) of the 25th Amendment (for example, in the case of an [expected medical procedure](https://www.dw.com/en/us-kamala-harris-serves-as-acting-president-during-biden-colonoscopy/a-59883548)) it will only resolve as **Yes** if Biden is fully removed from the office.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if the President's term is legally determined to end prior to noon on January 20, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737022571.269287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737022571.269287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.051302373734206985 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.498490719677703, 7.799599075083417, 1.412321823513652, 0.6559622596504544, 0.9148959597722846, 1.2444554786180881, 0.23939121658740856, 0.36205443249628844, 0.130073448106455, 0.030447336639071378, 0.5335415709754967, 0.02167726654832827, 0.11732905973792135, 0.02313471425938554, 0.14181647594602081, 0.00029981641072294725, 0.31218482408889453, 0.015219484522130806, 0.00582994230376245, 0.0, 0.31765065672585246, 0.0, 0.08613616144963625, 0.01629790587613884, 0.0, 0.04357439250702226, 0.000866674322036283, 0.003883458149464286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1301072679302837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.581711694063564e-05, 0.0, 0.006408642718728042, 0.0, 0.07090442465611883, 9.169354802457478e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026760709170733064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07660166398570915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013133371163358528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09675462506140017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006102727274173992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015583699496058777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018417141444656783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047654232643996415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7589483630464879 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.52473858153924, "peer_score": 15.254075921938874, "coverage": 0.999936015500086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999936015500086, "spot_peer_score": 70.36007155627559, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 85.52473858153924, "peer_archived_score": 15.254075921938874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 70.36007155627559, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287906.506733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287906.506733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9864918314252131, 0.013508168574786827 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 783, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296)." }, { "id": 12215, "title": "If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump Disqualification Unconstitutional", "url_title": "Trump Disqualification Unconstitutional", "slug": "trump-disqualification-unconstitutional", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T03:08:34.175822Z", "published_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.370125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12215, "title": "If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T03:08:34.175822Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.\n\nThese offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), which states:\n\n>(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.\n\n>(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.\n\nIn early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071. \n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/):\n\n>While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\nHowever, Reuters also notes:\n\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.\n\nAnother Metaculus question, '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/),' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, the question '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/)' resolves as **Yes**, and if such disqualification is later ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States; OR if such disqualification is ruled unconstitutional by an appellate court inferior to the US Supreme Court, AND the US Supreme Court refuses to hear an appeal against a lower court's prior ruling that such a disqualification is unconstitutional", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709565309.482892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709565309.482892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9199653231803251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0395767589921578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012129540518840794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013972838105430912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030332771541447954, 0.0, 0.0, 6.565167425399423e-05, 0.002368825497875868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4661945276835664, 0.0, 0.10930641969888927, 0.05063545436554874, 0.0, 0.003202788380971702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015604433143409473, 0.003921833486275472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022492667714289, 0.006223618988669347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041298684343583575, 0.003170524031739523, 0.0728603091741109, 0.05333736318253971, 0.002441281266328117, 0.0, 0.0002249551056478572, 0.008226760038416934, 0.2743628390553545, 0.0003770686253336921, 0.0, 0.006994728487179235, 0.02316179493181433, 0.09037759258484226, 0.011243979008062928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3973371768968283, 0.005440232710632233, 0.0, 0.17834949417199236, 0.0, 1.0732073812009613, 0.11565234661238516, 0.08945243275130947, 0.002141215690394542, 0.03935582276844598, 1.7774795857363954, 0.7723811252061117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5596828722761102, 2.4471475213658054, 1.3471809080012396, 1.0912308999502298, 2.184732140397824, 6.93366874767874 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.15430363529979, "coverage": 0.6988083144790931, "baseline_score": 32.996856492631856, "spot_peer_score": 7.713632317509798, "peer_archived_score": 8.15430363529979, "baseline_archived_score": 32.996856492631856, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.713632317509798 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709278947.305728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709278947.305728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1405668597178399, 0.8594331402821601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 332, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.\n\nThese offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), which states:\n\n>(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.\n\n>(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.\n\nIn early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071. \n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/):\n\n>While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\nHowever, Reuters also notes:\n\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.\n\nAnother Metaculus question, '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/),' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025." }, { "id": 12214, "title": "Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump Disqualified before Jan 20, 2025", "url_title": "Trump Disqualified before Jan 20, 2025", "slug": "trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T02:57:42.680030Z", "published_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.687465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12214, "title": "Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T02:57:42.680030Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T08:38:41.075241Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T08:38:41.075241Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. \n\nAccording to CNN: \n\n>The former President confirmed that FBI agents were at Mar-a-Lago and said \"they even broke into my safe.\" He was at Trump Tower in New York when the search warrant was executed in Florida, a person familiar told CNN.\n\n>\"My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,\" Trump said in a statement Monday evening.\n\n>...\n\n>\"It is a federal crime to remove classified documents wrongly. And so if you are filling out that affidavit and you have to list the crime, you can list that as the crime,\" said Elie Honig, a former federal and state prosecutor and a CNN senior legal analyst.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/ ):\n\n>While the [Presidential Records Act](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/44/chapter-22) does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under [a law, known by its code number 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>Even if the search warrant pertains to Trump's handling of official documents, he could end up facing charges for different crimes, said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal offices, so long as the presidency is included as an office that Trump is ruled disqualified from holding.\n\nAny later court rulings, such as appeal judgments that overturn the judgment of an earlier court, are immaterial to the resolution of this question: the question resolves immediately if Trump is ruled disqualified, and does not re-resolve differently if an appellate court later determines that judgment to have been unconstitutional, unlawful, or otherwise incorrect", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703027222.835016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703027222.835016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3154951115813157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.06353667767035587, 0.05239206843449304, 0.5882278686878067, 6.571746667824727e-05, 0.0, 0.2717788052153353, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4581179382117118, 0.012461046076939902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4578159594265775, 1.6394624483934486, 0.03756522271512681, 0.9539532924043488, 0.0, 0.0026327402556635855, 0.9970675997359841, 0.0, 0.0035880521054971015, 0.03508309377229755, 0.0, 2.1548509205833324, 0.20705710077589629, 0.005643973180777202, 0.2849747960507809, 0.0, 0.31035325276057113, 0.0052739218686467665, 0.028465057377240626, 2.5657575520970957, 0.40970106707192866, 1.670376644644367, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.1799806070891097, 0.25755362780572283, 0.0, 1.107530094142033, 0.5107329630580187, 0.7883280510469263, 0.0, 0.5597471071576301, 0.1396505883608381, 0.0, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.009753336837936988, 0.002925428569857308, 0.4157391615797916, 0.0, 0.05983833686932793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.14773311270320055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21877483394325103, 0.0, 0.00048559004796517485, 0.0, 0.045944948200045986, 0.0, 0.08674408552529388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00692033179503728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.001162523196728 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.248377124238575, "coverage": 0.5542523863001522, "baseline_score": -39.371823102458954, "spot_peer_score": 88.96990130411355, "peer_archived_score": 6.248377124238575, "baseline_archived_score": -39.371823102458954, "spot_peer_archived_score": 88.96990130411355 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703027222.887543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703027222.887543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7724714710333371, 0.22752852896666287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 308, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. \n\nAccording to CNN: \n\n>The former President confirmed that FBI agents were at Mar-a-Lago and said \"they even broke into my safe.\" He was at Trump Tower in New York when the search warrant was executed in Florida, a person familiar told CNN.\n\n>\"My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,\" Trump said in a statement Monday evening.\n\n>...\n\n>\"It is a federal crime to remove classified documents wrongly. And so if you are filling out that affidavit and you have to list the crime, you can list that as the crime,\" said Elie Honig, a former federal and state prosecutor and a CNN senior legal analyst.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/ ):\n\n>While the [Presidential Records Act](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/44/chapter-22) does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under [a law, known by its code number 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>Even if the search warrant pertains to Trump's handling of official documents, he could end up facing charges for different crimes, said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain." } ] }
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