Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3640
{ "count": 6374, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3620", "results": [ { "id": 17293, "title": "Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?", "short_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "url_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "slug": "replication-social-portfolios-and-well-being", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 129286, "username": "Transparent_Replications" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-30T15:41:40.433622Z", "published_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.448728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17293, "title": "Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?", "created_at": "2023-05-30T15:41:40.433622Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-02T15:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-02T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. “[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)” is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if we find a positive statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for the “social portfolio diversity” variable (defined below) in a linear regression predicting well-being (with a measure of the total amount of in-person social interaction included as a control variable). Otherwise it will resolve as **No**.\n\n# Original Study Results\n\nThe primary hypothesis in the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) was that in-person social portfolio diversity predicts higher well-being, even when controlling for the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction.\n\nThe authors ran a linear regression predicting participants' well-being, with (1) social portfolio diversity and (2) the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction as predictor variables. They found a positive, statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for social portfolio diversity. We will consider this result to have replicated if we also find a positive, statistically significant coefficient for that variable when we run the same linear regression using newly-collected data.\n\n# Study Summary\n\n<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Prediction_Version_-_Collins_et_al_Study_1_Diagram_UhNkYE8.jpeg\" alt=\"Summary of study 'Relation diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being\" />\n*[Higher resolution version available here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xHYpaWcNHdes_fyF8vnzuK6p03ElWpa9/view?usp=sharing)*\n\nIn the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) and in our replication, participants answered questions about their subjective well-being, then they filled out a diary reporting on their day the previous day. For each episode of their day they were asked if they were with anyone else in person. When they reported spending time in-person with others, they were asked to check off the relationship types they had with the people who were present (e.g., spouse/significant other, friends, co-workers, etc.) Participants then answered an attention check question and a few demographic questions.\n\nThe social portfolio diversity variable, in both the original study and in our replication, is calculated using the following equation:\n\n\\[H = -1*\\sum_{i=1}^s (p_i*\\ln p_i),\\]\n\nThe original study authors chose this formula because it is similar to Shannon’s biodiversity index. The equation involves computing, for each of the relationship categories a person reported having interactions with, the proportion of their total interactions that this category represented (which the authors call “\\(p_i\\)”). For each category of relationship, this proportion is multiplied by its natural logarithm. Finally, all these products are summed together and multiplied by negative one so that the final result is a positive number.\n\nThe proportion of episodes of in-person social interaction is the number of episodes in the day reported with in-person social interaction over the total number of episodes reported for the day.\n\nThe well-being dependent variable is calculated by averaging two questions about subjective well-being, one asking about how happy the person has felt over the last 24 hours (from 0 to 10), and the other asking them to place themselves on a ladder from 0 to 10 representing how well their life is going.\n\nThe original study included 578 participants after excluding participants who failed the attention check. Our replication included 963 participants after excluding those who failed the attention check (which meant we had 90% power to detect an effect size as low as 75% of the original effect size) recruited from MTurk via [Positly](https://www.positly.com/). [You can preview our replication study (as participants saw it) here](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/ardof21/preview).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22299999999999998, 0.777 ], "means": [ 0.741722882159093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.143130845855109, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 1.0957028005165046, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 1.9806349240003884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.34583797532781, "coverage": 0.9961005406193775, "baseline_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_score": 18.931121317291435, "peer_archived_score": 8.34583797532781, "baseline_archived_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.931121317291435 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38016720914673785, 0.6198327908532621 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. “[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)” is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/)." }, { "id": 17285, "title": "Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?", "short_title": "New Hampshire Freest State Until 2033?", "url_title": "New Hampshire Freest State Until 2033?", "slug": "new-hampshire-freest-state-until-2033", "author_id": 121431, "author_username": "Neniu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-29T05:55:26.967388Z", "published_at": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.587397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17285, "title": "Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?", "created_at": "2023-05-29T05:55:26.967388Z", "open_time": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T00:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T00:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Cato Institute](https://www.cato.org/), which according to their website \"is a public policy research organization—or think tank—that creates a presence for and promotes libertarian ideas in policy debates,\" publishes [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/), a ranking of how free each of the states in the USA is. For the past four years, [New Hampshire](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-hampshire) has been #1 in this ranking. It has been #1 for the eight of the last nine years, ranking #2 in 2015. This question asks if this trend will continue for the next decade or not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if every [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/) report published before 2035 covering years from 2023 to 2033 ranks New Hampshire #1 on the Freedom in the 50 States Index. \n\nThis question will be annulled if no additional Freedom in the 50 States reports are published between the years 2023 and 2035.", "fine_print": "- Note that the resolve date isn't until 2035. This is to give time for Cato to retroactively publish a report that includes dates before 2033.\n- Because of the wording of the resolution criteria, if Cato publishes (for instance) the - 7th edition of the report which states NH ranks #1 for the year 2025, but the 8th edition retroactively downgrades that to #2, this question resolves **no**. On the other hand, if the 7th edition ranks NH #2 for 2025, but the 8th edition ranks NH #1 for 2025, this question still resolves **no**.", "post_id": 17285, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741613616.143526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741613616.143526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3433009734376252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0840163380547865, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.7653423179917583, 0.6643928047021255, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289902.138823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289902.138823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8241706630200916, 0.1758293369799084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Cato Institute](https://www.cato.org/), which according to their website \"is a public policy research organization—or think tank—that creates a presence for and promotes libertarian ideas in policy debates,\" publishes [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/), a ranking of how free each of the states in the USA is. For the past four years, [New Hampshire](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-hampshire) has been #1 in this ranking. It has been #1 for the eight of the last nine years, ranking #2 in 2015. This question asks if this trend will continue for the next decade or not." }, { "id": 17284, "title": "Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Will Bayer stop selling Roundup in the US?", "url_title": "Will Bayer stop selling Roundup in the US?", "slug": "will-bayer-stop-selling-roundup-in-the-us", "author_id": 128315, "author_username": "geode", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-29T03:17:07.349767Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-04T11:01:38.318727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17284, "title": "Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-05-29T03:17:07.349767Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-05T18:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-05T18:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. [Glyphosate](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/glyphosate) is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup is the isopropylamine salt of glyphosate. Another ingredient of Roundup is the surfactant POEA (polyethoxylated tallow amine).\n\nSome [studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6322310/\n) and legal cases have suggested a link between glyphosate and [harmful health effects](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5515989/\n), such as cancer, while others claim its safety at approved usage levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently considers glyphosate safe when used correctly, but public concern and ongoing research may influence future assessments and policy decisions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Bayer publicly announces a substantial change in the formulation of all Roundup sold in the United States that includes a significant reduction or elimination of glyphosate and/or POEA., or a credible news source reports the same.\n\nThe announcement must clearly indicate that the changes are applicable to Roundup products sold in the United States. If the announcement or news report does not specify the geographic scope, the question will not resolve until it is clear whether the United States is included.\n\nSuch an announcement or report must be made before January 1, 2040.\n\nIf Bayer splits into multiple entities or sells the Roundup product line to another company, the actions of the entity owning Roundup at the end of 2039 will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf both options occur (ceasing sales and reformulation), the question will still resolve positively.", "fine_print": "A \"substantial change in formulation\" means a significant reduction (at least 50% by weight) or elimination of glyphosate and/or POEA in the formulation of Roundup.\n\nIf Bayer stops selling the Roundup brand but introduces a similar product under a different name, this will not count as a positive resolution unless the new product also meets the criteria for a substantial reformulation.\n\nIf there is no public information available about Bayer's plans for Roundup by the end of December 31, 2039, the question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 17284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759575687.678945, "end_time": 1768256505.586208, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759575687.678945, "end_time": 1768256505.586208, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.563195588735617 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3133827541420398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289283.848834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289283.848834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7054563407521424, 0.29454365924785764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. [Glyphosate](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/glyphosate) is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup is the isopropylamine salt of glyphosate. Another ingredient of Roundup is the surfactant POEA (polyethoxylated tallow amine).\n\nSome [studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6322310/\n) and legal cases have suggested a link between glyphosate and [harmful health effects](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5515989/\n), such as cancer, while others claim its safety at approved usage levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently considers glyphosate safe when used correctly, but public concern and ongoing research may influence future assessments and policy decisions." }, { "id": 17282, "title": "Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "TSMC Fab Shutdown Before 2025?", "url_title": "TSMC Fab Shutdown Before 2025?", "slug": "tsmc-fab-shutdown-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-27T18:01:54.709081Z", "published_at": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.489180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:54:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:21:47.366475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:21:47.366475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17282, "title": "Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-27T18:01:54.709081Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-01T18:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-01T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T14:59:47.321949Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions on TSMC chips, and in March 2023, the NVIDIA CEO [confirmed plans](https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpus-made-by-intel-look-like-theyre-actually-going-to-be-a-thing/) to use TSMC's new plant in Arizona.\n\nTSMC is building this new chip fab in Arizona in part due to US subsidies, and presumably in part due to risk of their primary plants in Taiwan due China's posturing. (See [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/) for the probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by various years.)\n\nIn addition to a full-scale invasion, China may attempt strategic attacks on TSMC, such as via cyberattacks or via social engineering, possibly as part of strategy against Taiwan more generally, or possibly as an attempt to slow down AI progress from consumers of NVIDIA GPUs based on TSMC chips, of which the [US has banned exports to China as of Sept 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if TSMC has a non-scheduled emergency shutdown of any chip manufacturing facility before January 1, 2025, according to credible sources.\n\nThe shutdown may be for any duration, as long as TSMC indicates production has halted.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654756.132523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654756.132523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03457642013610936 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.590211313103813, 3.0481406971172755, 0.025222677064637565, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.6397445877211616, 0.3625358205289846, 0.4941154159199105, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.01523699425510631, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289546.202279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289546.202279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968265336270932, 0.0031734663729068037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions on TSMC chips, and in March 2023, the NVIDIA CEO [confirmed plans](https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpus-made-by-intel-look-like-theyre-actually-going-to-be-a-thing/) to use TSMC's new plant in Arizona.\n\nTSMC is building this new chip fab in Arizona in part due to US subsidies, and presumably in part due to risk of their primary plants in Taiwan due China's posturing. (See [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/) for the probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by various years.)\n\nIn addition to a full-scale invasion, China may attempt strategic attacks on TSMC, such as via cyberattacks or via social engineering, possibly as part of strategy against Taiwan more generally, or possibly as an attempt to slow down AI progress from consumers of NVIDIA GPUs based on TSMC chips, of which the [US has banned exports to China as of Sept 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China)." }, { "id": 17280, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "short_title": "Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "url_title": "Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "slug": "frontier-ai-lab-in-china-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": 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null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T11:18:07.889932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:21:47.366475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T11:18:07.889932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17280, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-27T17:23:36.654859Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T19:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-01T19:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-01T19:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.\n\nThe largest Chinese-made model is GLM-130B, estimated at 4.60E+22 FLOPs, about 1/500 the amount of GPT-4. It was made by Tsinghua KEG, a university.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to train [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nPotential Chinese companies that could become a Frontier AI Lab are SenseTime, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI Lab in China at any time between May 1, 2023 to January 1, 2026. It must be publicly reported during this period that such an AI lab exists (for example, information reported in February 2026 that a qualifying AI model existed in 2025 will not be included). Any type of organization in China will be included: public or private, commercial or academic, so long as they produce an AI model of the required training cost.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established by either the lab's own publications or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726705420.945797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726705420.945797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.7645969531268707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15066042164359664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4033698885951098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15827155080709557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33936474810900363, 0.0, 0.5056906699491653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.447077817155903e-06, 0.09595689042665882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014947595553296836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22780424723435486, 0.0, 0.7884795022455198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05088729247111954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.870952844665587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.419225343372455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017891374488695198, 0.0, 0.0006275716769478724, 0.0001996334443375068, 0.0, 0.8984640131412545, 1.035482262614352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011084268203934402, 0.16618929408428004, 8.210370375392484e-05, 0.6674571874742238, 0.10927834561493706, 0.6286925133595159, 1.385802110071662, 0.0, 0.0017913117763406188, 0.23862750930876095, 0.0014020706631319812, 0.9598685516482126, 0.0, 1.0604261650076863, 1.2610486002631118, 0.00011103073813647986, 1.468642040608039, 0.0, 0.20218842689918134, 0.8193473209787554, 0.11332446030139319, 6.096480648742978, 0.0004205389030481444, 0.4981836012707701, 0.00046623274095486183, 0.03321832159300278, 0.6213360285577614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7544286732023044 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.071706790493694, "coverage": 0.38461249783876433, "baseline_score": 25.528683673577415, "spot_peer_score": 46.023283862415155, "peer_archived_score": 5.071706790493694, "baseline_archived_score": 25.528683673577415, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.023283862415155 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716795541.974762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716795541.974762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21665493528899837, 0.7833450647110016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.\n\nThe largest Chinese-made model is GLM-130B, estimated at 4.60E+22 FLOPs, about 1/500 the amount of GPT-4. It was made by Tsinghua KEG, a university.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to train [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nPotential Chinese companies that could become a Frontier AI Lab are SenseTime, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance." }, { "id": 17262, "title": "Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?", "short_title": "OpenAI Uptime in June 2023", "url_title": "OpenAI Uptime in June 2023", "slug": "openai-uptime-in-june-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:35:25.677823Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.228840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", 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"2025-11-19T13:09:28.209147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17262, "title": "Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:35:25.677823Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T17:04:36.245116Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T17:04:36.245116Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com) causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.\n\nFor chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.\n\nChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to **YES** if, on July 1, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1) for chat.openai.com reports >=99.9% uptime for the month of June, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month.\n\nResolution will be based on this page alone, even if considered inaccurate in its reporting. If no such data is reported for June, this question resolves as **AMBIGUOUS**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688150430.281521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.985 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688150430.281521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.985 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9757550987348392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0056565179652946435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497083797804496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.88012459426455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002024613796630103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042490269170560296, 0.0, 0.0021151709828623215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00562583409040171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019976794554547846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013664321495393179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007370950072255752, 0.0, 0.0002463641482708912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001216459774363555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028642989982272903, 0.015443039463310142, 0.006484300268705211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003510959008213827, 0.004248544523158632, 0.0, 0.03788100794072097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013283912406590609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028658118144712814, 0.0034722637230320567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007051949679527717, 0.038933237841415266, 0.0, 0.03183710757015731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2574836997023475, 0.244804515352966, 0.4169778219522576, 0.07080488473818264, 0.09516663388113575, 0.7176954455899016, 0.4746381674982078, 1.420149879507835, 1.9588230967869604, 14.39627849480732 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.586451334751146, "coverage": 0.999996873161622, "baseline_score": -1.8839916564442047, "spot_peer_score": 0.6968455592116655, "peer_archived_score": 19.586451334751146, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8839916564442047, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6968455592116655 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688150430.310048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688150430.310048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05332033209723275, 0.9466796679027673 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 570, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com) causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.\n\nFor chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.\n\nChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?" }, { "id": 17260, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "short_title": "ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?", "url_title": "ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?", "slug": "chatgpt-available-in-europe-on-june-30-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:03:05.833158Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.531208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T15:07:21.139566Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17260, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:03:05.833158Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-26T21:32:26.435000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-26T21:32:26.435000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), \"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union.\"\n\nThe [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) \"regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity.\" As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **YES** if [ChatGPT](chat.openai.com) is generally available in the EU on June 30, 2024, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"Generally available\" here means that the default state for people in the EU is that they can access it without a VPN (possibly requiring paying for it.) If unavailable in certain EU countries (as was the case in Italy in early 2023), or unavailable to (for example) minors, this will still resolve positively, assuming at least >50% of the population can use it.\n\n\"ChatGPT\" here refers to the general web interface (not the API) for interacting with GPT models. Still resolves positively if the name or website has changed, as long as OpenAI's service is substantially the same (entering queries to systems based on Large Language Models).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655201.700349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655201.700349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9328438342654604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38355941453264414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.881525652236605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029243119319264654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"start_time": 1719733003.2266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719733003.2266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008242782185086561, 0.9917572178149134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 294, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), \"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union.\"\n\nThe [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) \"regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity.\" As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely." }, { "id": 17250, "title": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Linda Yaccarino CEO of Twitter?", "url_title": "Linda Yaccarino CEO of Twitter?", "slug": "linda-yaccarino-ceo-of-twitter", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-23T16:17:33.781909Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T02:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.791903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17250, "title": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-23T16:17:33.781909Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-28T15:44:57.023028Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-28T15:44:57.023028Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into [X, the “everything app”](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo). Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.\n\nAssuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Linda Yaccarino is in the position of CEO at Twitter on July 1, 2024, according to official announcements from Twitter or credible media sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17250, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655300.542388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.939 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655300.542388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.939 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9553756504692784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005675634729541413, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007925084159090202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016130931261017813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012345684322673096, 0.014145727934610995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786676606165154, 0.029367576745184032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.07317984826329925, 0.0, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.06663686154666806, 0.03469291395821098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04270855676134652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.131078667716023, 0.0, 0.04059264133585082, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0450032524825526, 0.026223454560143997, 0.0, 0.1376316604417457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3171093383541346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8584626815738725, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0960250916311845, 1.5356764516611898, 0.0, 0.353482848988943, 0.0, 2.225193465618142, 0.6809768999841327, 7.478858539827302 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.397654988168053, "coverage": 0.9999968800833168, "baseline_score": 51.94556564379195, "spot_peer_score": 1.7647903464993502, "peer_archived_score": 13.397654988168053, "baseline_archived_score": 51.94556564379195, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7647903464993502 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719734154.829402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719734154.829402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.027441335804830325, 0.9725586641951697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 234, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into [X, the “everything app”](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo). Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.\n\nAssuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk." }, { "id": 17247, "title": "Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?", "short_title": "15-inch Macbook Air at WWDC 2023", "url_title": "15-inch Macbook Air at WWDC 2023", "slug": "15-inch-macbook-air-at-wwdc-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 132519, "username": "Anastasia" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-23T04:09:29.179342Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.451720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17247, "title": "Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-23T04:09:29.179342Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T12:18:00.272882Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T12:18:00.272882Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WWDC is Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.\n\nOn April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) \"Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024.\"\n\n[Macrumors reported](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/16/new-macbooks-at-wwdc-gurman/) the same day that \"15-inch MacBook Air rumors began in early 2021, and it appears the laptop is nearing release. Apple's suppliers have reportedly [ramped up production of 15-inch display panels](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/10/15-inch-macbook-air-component-production/) for the laptop, and the machine recently [surfaced in App Store developer logs](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/14/15-inch-macbook-air-m2-like-chip-logs/).\"\n\nSee the 13\" offerings on the [Apple store](https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple announces a 15 inch \"Macbook Air\" at WWDC from June 5-9, and **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "15 inch refers to the diagonal width. The exact dimensions do not matter—if the device is advertised as 15 inches, it qualifies.\n\nIt must be called a Macbook Air to resolve Yes. 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Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.\n\nOn April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) \"Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024.\"\n\n[Macrumors reported](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/16/new-macbooks-at-wwdc-gurman/) the same day that \"15-inch MacBook Air rumors began in early 2021, and it appears the laptop is nearing release. Apple's suppliers have reportedly [ramped up production of 15-inch display panels](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/10/15-inch-macbook-air-component-production/) for the laptop, and the machine recently [surfaced in App Store developer logs](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/14/15-inch-macbook-air-m2-like-chip-logs/).\"\n\nSee the 13\" offerings on the [Apple store](https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/)." }, { "id": 17246, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?", "short_title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31?", "url_title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31?", "slug": "will-elizabeth-holmes-be-in-prison-on-may-31", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-22T18:07:46.300807Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.361409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17246, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-22T18:07:46.300807Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T17:06:58.743629Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T17:06:58.743629Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. Theranos claimed to have revolutionized blood testing by developing testing methods that could use surprisingly small volumes of blood. However, it was revealed that the technology did not work as advertised. Holmes was subsequently charged with multiple counts of fraud for misleading investors, doctors, and patients.\n\nHolmes's case has been closely watched as it casts a harsh light on Silicon Valley’s culture of hubris. She has been ordered to [report to prison on May 30, 2023](https://apnews.com/article/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-prison-reporting-date-9fd718cd012d49f68c654bad89abb0ed#:~:text=Elizabeth%20Holmes%20will%20start%2011,her%20bid%20to%20remain%20free) after losing her latest bid to remain free.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media sources report that Elizabeth Holmes is in prison on May 31, 2023.", "fine_print": "If no sources report anything, it will be assumed that she reported to prison on time and will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685348046.030876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685348046.030876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.8897771718122371 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5906970726489932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08708798480342782, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.467441165893762, 1.4427368339928914, 0.0, 0.495368724479614, 1.4204855194624733, 1.2564129678718277 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.792359118121, "coverage": 0.987524443023063, "baseline_score": 80.46433593218659, "spot_peer_score": 25.387286097249287, "peer_archived_score": 12.792359118121, "baseline_archived_score": 80.46433593218659, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.387286097249287 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685348046.042044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685348046.042044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.034106728872544845, 0.9658932711274552 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. 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She has been ordered to [report to prison on May 30, 2023](https://apnews.com/article/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-prison-reporting-date-9fd718cd012d49f68c654bad89abb0ed#:~:text=Elizabeth%20Holmes%20will%20start%2011,her%20bid%20to%20remain%20free) after losing her latest bid to remain free." }, { "id": 17241, "title": "Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?", "short_title": "Alberta election 2023 winner", "url_title": "Alberta election 2023 winner", "slug": "alberta-election-2023-winner", "author_id": 111609, "author_username": "kshiromoto0723", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-22T03:29:09.938744Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T02:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.793458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-27T02:43:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-30T05:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-30T05:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17241, "title": "Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?", "created_at": "2023-05-22T03:29:09.938744Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-29T02:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-29T02:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T15:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-05T15:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-30T05:50:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-30T05:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[General elections for Alberta's Legislative Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election) will be held on May 29th. The incumbent United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith will be seeking their second term, while their main challengers are the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley, who held government between 2015 and 2019. Polls show a tight race, with different pollsters showing different parties in the lead.\n\nIn this first-past-the-post election, no party outside these two is expected to win any seats, although [one UCP candidate](https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-jennifer-johnson-anti-lgbtq-remarks) will not be allowed in the party caucus due to offensive remarks (although she remains on the ballot with her affiliation), creating a possibility that both major parties end up tied at 43 seats won.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, following the election, the [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news) election results page shows the UCP with more seats than any other party (with or without a majority).\n\nThe page will be checked on June 5, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685417994.686114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685417994.686114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7139562540385725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42783572693442795, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.248911460444505, "coverage": 0.9991729250242349, "baseline_score": 37.40371096113983, "spot_peer_score": -4.851334559049, "peer_archived_score": -2.248911460444505, "baseline_archived_score": 37.40371096113983, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.851334559049 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685417994.70247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685417994.70247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12118437318590936, 0.8788156268140906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections for Alberta's Legislative Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election) will be held on May 29th. The incumbent United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith will be seeking their second term, while their main challengers are the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley, who held government between 2015 and 2019. Polls show a tight race, with different pollsters showing different parties in the lead.\n\nIn this first-past-the-post election, no party outside these two is expected to win any seats, although [one UCP candidate](https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-jennifer-johnson-anti-lgbtq-remarks) will not be allowed in the party caucus due to offensive remarks (although she remains on the ballot with her affiliation), creating a possibility that both major parties end up tied at 43 seats won." }, { "id": 17202, "title": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "short_title": "NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?", "url_title": "NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?", "slug": "nvidia-stock-below-250-before-31-dec-2024", "author_id": 143690, "author_username": "kepe95", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-21T09:11:22.871609Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.061631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17202, "title": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-21T09:11:22.871609Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-28T13:07:26.669000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-28T13:07:26.669000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T03:39:15.745932Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true). \n\nThis is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are [historically very high](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWsbvPg4b_AhVyx4sKHUkyC-MQ3ecFegQIOhAh&window=1Y).\n\nMarket Commentators [have expressed concern](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buyer-beware-comes-ai-103035210.html) that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.\n\nThis question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after May 26, 2023, and before January 1, 2025, the stock of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades below $250 for a full day, as confirmed by either [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi6wdiT7ZP_AhWrtYkEHRSqAeoQ3ecFegQILhAh) or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/) data. The question resolves as **No** if the stock did not trade below $250 for a full day after May 26, 2023 and before January 1, 2025. \n\nAdjustments will be made in case of a stock split, merger, or other change to the ticker or company to continue to use an equivalent measure. Metaculus may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event that a clear adjustment cannot be easily made, including but not limited to the example of a bigger company buying NVIDIA resulting in no longer being able to determine the price of NVIDIA.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735523871.847748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735523871.847748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0062028635839314 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.189707848880078, 3.259307405954088, 0.21019410301764746, 0.027414264600835975, 0.32781565873588886, 0.059234032280852854, 0.008522131514278471, 0.0, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.06562619069267198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007535015292961775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005078988548449663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0016664196904290613, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.69318239119065, "peer_score": 14.064313024028296, "coverage": 0.9999935078454333, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999935078454333, "spot_peer_score": 28.98566618125009, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 74.69318239119065, "peer_archived_score": 14.064313024028296, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.98566618125009, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289410.361173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289410.361173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true). \n\nThis is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are [historically very high](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWsbvPg4b_AhVyx4sKHUkyC-MQ3ecFegQIOhAh&window=1Y).\n\nMarket Commentators [have expressed concern](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buyer-beware-comes-ai-103035210.html) that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.\n\nThis question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments." }, { "id": 17180, "title": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "short_title": "Deepfake costs election before 2025", "url_title": "Deepfake costs election before 2025", "slug": "deepfake-costs-election-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:53.374284Z", "published_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.051472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 189, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17180, "title": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:53.374284Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-24T01:55:01.534689Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-24T01:55:01.534689Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:40:41.202139Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"Deepfakes\" or \"Deep fakes\" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.\n\nIn May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter \"Yikes. Def not me.\"](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral). In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, a politician in an election with >3M votes cast in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) claims that they lost an election due to a deepfake video, image, or audio recording of them.", "fine_print": "* \"Claim they lost\" will be interpreted broadly - the politician need not say it was solely responsible, but they must make a big deal out of it according to Metaculus admins.\n\n* Standard text-based propaganda does not count as a \"deepfake\". So for example, claims about misinformation in the 2016 US Presidential election would not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 17180, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654754.85415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654754.85415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.056702053446948016 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.16795870001679, 5.795014196586224, 2.070558912163696, 0.8041737547554527, 0.8132663447509948, 2.2964838561708545, 0.0005044550597752829, 0.46067163672590106, 0.0, 0.011617416622903743, 0.23866350066118716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1455181865506139, 0.46547225199451675, 0.04761304415374139, 0.22107146237276495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41436950116912036, 0.13944368925648012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49199221522837255, 0.0, 0.03407592382697639, 0.08630893337855262, 0.0, 0.03858626659444644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02535461964128627, 0.0, 0.0021875788472901503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1124025069325061, 0.10859160353355897, 0.0, 0.01869620687987974, 0.0, 0.05016344191106453, 0.00012535277803824257, 0.06771832080108725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06528362491260288, 0.028007319484293736, 0.0, 0.0, 4.734754082427822e-06, 0.08661554815731944, 0.0, 0.00017083808332495824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0384374183313015, 0.0, 6.5062746000129215e-06, 0.0, 0.002838315163133384, 0.023419723244791586, 0.0006424387921683177, 0.0, 0.0, 1.947522902299023e-05, 0.0010926605002768896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07838624724699754, 0.0, 0.0026888322560428804, 4.2362667981106245e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035970306560069356, 0.027076562673422525, 0.0, 0.0018893657655834435, 0.05084377025823617, 0.0, 0.03134959843450191, 4.8539291964921644e-05, 0.10612309582462236, 0.0004270051226036597, 0.0, 0.016038267187894584, 0.004662653985115779, 0.0, 8.505527334334535e-06, 0.0, 0.14200028825980837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015549731438177125 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -51.67052106562597, "peer_score": 29.64624288433172, "coverage": 0.9999840646113978, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999840646113978, "spot_peer_score": -2.9457965349338098, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -51.67052106562597, "peer_archived_score": 29.64624288433172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.9457965349338098, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288488.199056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288488.199056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9511382632903832, 0.04886173670961678 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 643, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"Deepfakes\" or \"Deep fakes\" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.\n\nIn May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter \"Yikes. Def not me.\"](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral). In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do." }, { "id": 17179, "title": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "short_title": "Infrastructure disaster from AI before 2025", "url_title": "Infrastructure disaster from AI before 2025", "slug": "infrastructure-disaster-from-ai-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:46.451084Z", "published_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17179, "title": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:46.451084Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T07:36:55.020981Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T07:36:55.020981Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T21:17:16.717083Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:\n\n* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.\n\n* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.\n\n* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a cyberattack on infrastructure causing at least $1B in damages in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.\n\nSince the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.", "fine_print": "* \"infrastructure\" will be interpreted broadly, like the examples in the background info. The targets may be private entities if the damage is felt by the public, as with attacks on energy, food, and hospital systems.\n\n* Monetary damage of the attack will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount.", "post_id": 17179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654753.388615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654753.388615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.025825342840883628 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.308493602495505, 4.184790522353795, 0.2208345820490045, 0.5102750961633419, 0.45024379078057575, 0.2829540424691277, 0.0, 0.014128607803813408, 0.11083301965526829, 0.05140159403448454, 0.001092466646874047, 0.14749563312177918, 0.6013122581900763, 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.2710752998139798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 0.0, 0.0027731056526689246, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.07618090488681187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015663757846189213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13747443227290793, 0.0, 0.045527996643579115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003878713961381149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.11707008374957, "peer_score": 13.25008959571094, "coverage": 0.9999843643667625, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999843643667625, "spot_peer_score": 23.395661114902747, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 95.11707008374957, "peer_archived_score": 13.25008959571094, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.395661114902747, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289081.018343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289081.018343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991308710825855, 0.0008691289174145499 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:\n\n* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.\n\n* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.\n\n* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group." }, { "id": 17178, "title": "Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "short_title": "IP theft from AI before 2025", "url_title": "IP theft from AI before 2025", "slug": "ip-theft-from-ai-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": 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an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:44.669572Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T21:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T21:19:24.702744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:\n\nIn 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.\n\nIn January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attributes IP theft of value at least $10M in to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the theft; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to hack and steal IP (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the theft results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.\n\nSince the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.", "fine_print": "* Monetary value of the IP will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount. If not specified, admins will infer the value is >$10M if they infer the hack is major, as was the case in with the Riot games theft in the background info.", "post_id": 17178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671309.519816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671309.519816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.060980679103640266 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.418351066788656, 2.754209042825315, 1.7349369181882208, 0.7564943841436664, 0.22519494629653822, 0.4793531485480562, 0.6085387539781595, 0.0, 0.2812858676324347, 0.0, 0.8499419657507199, 0.0, 0.023164381480015078, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.420915453771765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06248450754159178, 0.02897092002998519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.239787734158169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.08482337249261131, 0.004176477489548196, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.005951937961528494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09259910912117526, 0.016179044804938477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05886339947918327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12689611276213936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04397920349508898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06685546638137661, 0.0, 0.1806647763176795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13551986980901504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028938014188489144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014249192245099284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.96461862636256, "peer_score": 20.264147743556908, "coverage": 0.999985999888508, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999985999888508, "spot_peer_score": 31.717140016873834, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 63.96461862636256, "peer_archived_score": 20.264147743556908, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.717140016873834, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289472.802575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289472.802575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9834905829192782, 0.016509417080721896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:\n\nIn 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.\n\nIn January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach." }, { "id": 17177, "title": "Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?", "short_title": "Election hack before 2025", "url_title": "Election hack before 2025", "slug": "election-hack-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": 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null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that \"In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change voter data. Few election officials even noticed the digital incursions.\n\nIt couldn’t have been a particularly difficult mission for Russia’s army of hackers: Many U.S. voting machines were more than a decade old. Some were so outdated that officials had to buy spare parts on eBay. A few were running Windows 2000.\" In April 2023, it called for funding from DHS, CISA, EAC, and the FBI to direct more resources to combat these threats.\n\nEuropean countries have also expressed concerns, with the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) stating that \"Core electoral\nsystems are being targeted by digital communities, institutions, and actors.\" ([pdf](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-foresight-cybersecurity-threats-for-2030/@@download/fullReport).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major attacks on voting systems have been directly attributable to AI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a successful attack on election infrastructure in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering on people responsible for election systems.\n\nAny successful attack qualifies, regardless of how many votes or voting machines were compromised, but the target must be the *actual process of collecting or counting votes*, not information about voting (such as a DDOS attack against a government website with voting information), or general disinformation campaigns.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654745.81633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654745.81633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02862661350944254 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.128447887697973, 3.05434874178439, 0.9761496436011955, 0.46835103032029635, 0.0, 0.11329455582881533, 0.018876485630930608, 0.28821298216570146, 0.7350209308242119, 0.0, 0.35063777899947274, 0.010703886146113043, 0.05416656778952044, 0.014242554722086555, 0.0, 0.06927105776320215, 0.023907745985262838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028060324433643096, 0.0, 0.0344326025214608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0948822910012301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21196125406736083, 0.016946764592253687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006379262637396644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04145990502278528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596432114486756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01181680794931113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023254082934554995 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.57189105784451, "peer_score": 25.614668232269686, "coverage": 0.9999887589357306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999887589357306, "spot_peer_score": 1.644007010641943, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.57189105784451, "peer_archived_score": 25.614668232269686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.644007010641943, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288103.280236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288103.280236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993943736527301, 0.0006056263472698992 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that \"In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change voter data. Few election officials even noticed the digital incursions.\n\nIt couldn’t have been a particularly difficult mission for Russia’s army of hackers: Many U.S. voting machines were more than a decade old. Some were so outdated that officials had to buy spare parts on eBay. A few were running Windows 2000.\" In April 2023, it called for funding from DHS, CISA, EAC, and the FBI to direct more resources to combat these threats.\n\nEuropean countries have also expressed concerns, with the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) stating that \"Core electoral\nsystems are being targeted by digital communities, institutions, and actors.\" ([pdf](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-foresight-cybersecurity-threats-for-2030/@@download/fullReport).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major attacks on voting systems have been directly attributable to AI." }, { "id": 17176, "title": "Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "short_title": "AI takes down stock exchange before 2025", "url_title": "AI takes down stock exchange before 2025", "slug": "ai-takes-down-stock-exchange-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": 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with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:39.755972Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-24T10:15:38.059050Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-24T10:15:38.059050Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:28:59.731603Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).\n\nExamples of Flash Crashes were the [2010 drop of 1,000 points in the DOW for disputed reasons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash) and the [2022 European stock flash crash due to human error](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash#Flash_Crash_of_European_Stock_Markets_on_May_2,_2022).\n\nIn May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nIn all of these cases, prices recovered quickly and no exchanges were halted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, mainstream news attributes a major stock exchange halting trading for >24 hours due to AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"Due to AI\" means the exchange is said to have halted trading due to either:\n\n* Due to AI trading, such as high-frequency trading gone haywire, or\n* Due to erratic human trading caused by AI-created misinformation, such as deepfakes", "fine_print": "* \"Major stock exchange\" is defined as a [top 10 exchange by monthly trading volume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges), including NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, and a major exchange in each of China, India, South Korea, and Hong Kong.", "post_id": 17176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671302.541618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671302.541618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, 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and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nIn all of these cases, prices recovered quickly and no exchanges were halted." }, { "id": 17174, "title": "Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?", "short_title": "Will the Palme d'Or go to a European film?", "url_title": "Will the Palme d'Or go to a European film?", "slug": "will-the-palme-dor-go-to-a-european-film", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-18T21:26:48.607867Z", "published_at": "2023-05-19T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.979147Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-19T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-19T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17174, "title": "Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T21:26:48.607867Z", "open_time": "2023-05-19T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-21T00:28:54.984525Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-21T00:28:54.984525Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among the official selection of feature films in competition. The [winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or) is selected by a jury composed of esteemed members of the film industry, including filmmakers, actors, and other industry professionals.\n\nThe Palme d'Or represents a significant achievement and recognition for the winning film, elevating its status and often boosting its global recognition and distribution opportunities. Over the years, the award has been bestowed upon remarkable films from various countries, showcasing the diverse talent and creativity in the international film landscape.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved based on the official announcement of the Palme d'Or winner at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival. If the film awarded the Palme d'Or is originates from a European country the question will resolve **yes**.\n\nEuropean countries are the ones on [this list](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/europe/) as defined by the CIA.", "fine_print": "- If there are multiple countries of origin listed for the film, the question with resolve **yes** if half or more of the countries are in Europe.\n- The country/countries of origin will be determined from the Cannes official listing for the film. See [here](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/triangle-of-sadness/) for a sample of last year's winner, from Sweden.", "post_id": 17174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685114506.937906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685114506.937906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6415818199882881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2842560033288368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.025302524918872856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35881353004036015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5845712422689433, 0.24510547290006113, 0.7126735024003407, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.1792663589359841, 0.2936757196039515, 1.9395326202148029, 0.20145619470265194, 1.0888306713123392, 0.5419910034102126, 0.0, 0.7286168205455135, 0.9530031133170577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5924193140262198, 1.2549549140597982, 0.2516489300959054, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1561835500492839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2970850533904107, 0.012431064033118435, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4994839393471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228311751426085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950776742748636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.285313417479795, "coverage": 0.9854618025496205, "baseline_score": 44.02807728216319, "spot_peer_score": 1.4888856433987736, "peer_archived_score": 8.285313417479795, "baseline_archived_score": 44.02807728216319, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4888856433987736 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685114506.951315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685114506.951315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40883264439514955, 0.5911673556048505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among the official selection of feature films in competition. The [winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or) is selected by a jury composed of esteemed members of the film industry, including filmmakers, actors, and other industry professionals.\n\nThe Palme d'Or represents a significant achievement and recognition for the winning film, elevating its status and often boosting its global recognition and distribution opportunities. Over the years, the award has been bestowed upon remarkable films from various countries, showcasing the diverse talent and creativity in the international film landscape." }, { "id": 17114, "title": "Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Limjaroenrat confirmed as Prime Minister?", "url_title": "Limjaroenrat confirmed as Prime Minister?", "slug": "limjaroenrat-confirmed-as-prime-minister", "author_id": 118183, "author_username": "polarbear", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-16T21:26:40.167512Z", "published_at": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.505629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17114, "title": "Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T21:26:40.167512Z", "open_time": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-30T02:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-30T02:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):\n\n- Pheu Thai Party: 141\n- Bhumjaithai Party: 70\n- Palang Pracharat Party: 41\n- United Thai Nation Party: 36\n- Democrat Party: 24\n- Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10\n- Prachachat Party: 9\n- Thai Sang Thai: 6\n- Others: 11\n\nHowever, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. [Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2571327/ball-now-in-senates-court).\n\nMoreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-Move-Forward-to-form-coalition-with-Pheu-Thai).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on reputable reports that Pita Limjaroenra has been confirmed as the prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688109864.982887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688109864.982887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010416030517590954 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.360027548279625, 5.0930677506102855, 0.005091871219889384, 0.1223794468516071, 0.013841141009878904, 0.06433482000186017, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.08622018805400586, 0.033136279379270196, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04795610324820406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.149046033603128, "coverage": 0.9997645378350428, "baseline_score": 74.38718341479144, "spot_peer_score": 38.4605809777198, "peer_archived_score": 16.149046033603128, "baseline_archived_score": 74.38718341479144, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.4605809777198 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688110677.546282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688110677.546282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):\n\n- Pheu Thai Party: 141\n- Bhumjaithai Party: 70\n- Palang Pracharat Party: 41\n- United Thai Nation Party: 36\n- Democrat Party: 24\n- Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10\n- Prachachat Party: 9\n- Thai Sang Thai: 6\n- Others: 11\n\nHowever, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. [Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2571327/ball-now-in-senates-court).\n\nMoreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-Move-Forward-to-form-coalition-with-Pheu-Thai)." }, { "id": 17112, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?", "short_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2030?", "url_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2030?", "slug": "cybersecurity-laws-for-powerful-ai-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119604, "username": "Lawrence" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-16T16:14:37.087995Z", "published_at": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T06:10:52.120124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17112, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T16:14:37.087995Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T10:22:50.694162Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T10:22:50.694162Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by 2030, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of _powerful_ models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "fine_print": "There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. For this question’s resolution, what matters is whether the law is _intended_ to secure _powerful_ models.", "post_id": 17112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763209338.665973, "end_time": 1766551751.004, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763209338.665973, "end_time": 1766551751.004, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.813101968875418 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5390096788244046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2194661971845709, 0.0, 1.3040128912069369, 0.0, 0.6364016195156263, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6408967830939472, 0.35843923208154005, 1.1261161008694163, 0.07279373739416124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.2743287127404717 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287660.461093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287660.461093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18224851983055868, 0.8177514801694413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default." } ] }
