Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3660
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3640", "results": [ { "id": 12122, "title": "Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?", "short_title": "PredictIt Default before 2023", "url_title": "PredictIt Default before 2023", "slug": "predictit-default-before-2023", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-08T14:40:14.976116Z", "published_at": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.600292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12122, "title": "Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-08-08T14:40:14.976116Z", "open_time": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "(See also: *[Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12120/predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023/)*)\n\n***\n\nPredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market platform allowing users based in the United States to bet on political events, under the auspices of a No-Action Letter by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On August 4, 2022, PredictIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the CFTC had withdrawn the No-Action Letter and that trading on the platform would cease on February 15, 2023.\n\nThis allows PredictIt users one final November election in which to place their bets and collect their winnings. The purpose of this question is to determine whether there is elevated counterparty risk on the part of PredictIt--i.e., the risk that the company would not fulfill its contractual obligation to allow its users to withdraw their winnings at any time through the end of the year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there has been a credible media reporting of any ordinary PredictIt user or users who have been unable to withdraw their funds from their PredictIt account on or before December 31, 2022.\n\nFor purposes of this question an \"ordinary\" user of PredictIt is one for whom there would be no reason for PredictIt to contractually be permitted to block a withdrawal.\n\nGenerally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not there has been any such reporting. However, the Metaculus admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.", "fine_print": "\"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets in the United States include Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and newspapers such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. Smaller or local media outlets will treated on a case-by-case basis. To take a random example, if WSB-TV News in Atlanta reported on a specific local resident who had been blocked from withdrawing their PredictIt funds, this would be treated as credible.", "post_id": 12122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485047.139948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485047.139948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03099942723344488 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.018233845851547, 0.16871148880955214, 0.5324674097611531, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.04150363755641347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.06425384799874803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038122920635919405, 0.18347201844502478, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14074560893615895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.89767738848744, "coverage": 0.9997940688683113, "baseline_score": 59.67016452990285, "spot_peer_score": 76.57127098984452, "peer_archived_score": 17.89767738848744, "baseline_archived_score": 59.67016452990285, "spot_peer_archived_score": 76.57127098984452 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485047.167157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485047.167157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "(See also: *[Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12120/predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023/)*)\n\n***\n\nPredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market platform allowing users based in the United States to bet on political events, under the auspices of a No-Action Letter by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On August 4, 2022, PredictIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the CFTC had withdrawn the No-Action Letter and that trading on the platform would cease on February 15, 2023.\n\nThis allows PredictIt users one final November election in which to place their bets and collect their winnings. The purpose of this question is to determine whether there is elevated counterparty risk on the part of PredictIt--i.e., the risk that the company would not fulfill its contractual obligation to allow its users to withdraw their winnings at any time through the end of the year." }, { "id": 12121, "title": "Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "NK to send 100+ troops to Ukraine before 2024", "url_title": "NK to send 100+ troops to Ukraine before 2024", "slug": "nk-to-send-100-troops-to-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-07T09:24:22.850735Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.655711Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12121, "title": "Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-08-07T09:24:22.850735Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T08:54:03.076214Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T08:54:03.076214Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Recent media reports suggest the possibility that [North Korea may send troops to Ukraine](https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/) to assist Russia.\n\n***Will North Korea have ≥100 troops in Ukraine before 2024, without Ukrainian consent?***\n\nResolves as **Yes** if 3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean military personnel are in Ukraine at any one time (including Crimea and/or the various \"People's Republic\" quasi-states) in defiance of the will of the recognized Ukrainian government. Based on Kyiv time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704058803.793651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704058803.793651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.012270463243577426 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.124063081899978, 8.504988298051213, 0.1969063972802551, 0.1786384250231599, 0.22605796006008558, 0.21722181732735207, 0.009699809237428903, 0.07523375668636881, 0.4130621881950718, 0.09504515910738182, 0.023767671898153295, 0.001665338431562253, 0.09622130965993445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006167933709844952, 0.006693079323327361, 0.2386427710303193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014042260175915235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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1704058803.828065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704058803.828065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 426, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 12120, "title": "Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?", "short_title": "PredictIt Open for Trading on Mar 15, 2023", "url_title": "PredictIt Open for Trading on Mar 15, 2023", "slug": "predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023", "author_id": 117229, "author_username": "SignoreGalilei", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-06T00:43:37.405294Z", "published_at": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.263883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12120, "title": "Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-08-06T00:43:37.405294Z", "open_time": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-12T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-12T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market website associated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and operated by Aristotle, Inc. On August 4, 2022, PredcitIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had withdrawn the No-Action Letter under which PredictIt had been legally operating since 2014. The CFTC [announcement thereof ](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22) declared that all PredictIt markets must be \"closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023.\"\n\n***Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?***\n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** if, on March 15, 2023 at 12:00 pm EST, an ordinary user in the USA can create an account on PredictIt, deposit funds, trade on a prediction market using real currency, and withdraw funds from PredictIt, all legally and without the use of a VPN or similar technology to mask the user's location.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678803142.374167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678803142.374167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": 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null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12117, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-04T20:30:09.821187Z", "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic) is an American publicly-traded spaceflight company founded by Richard Branson. The company is developing commercial spacecraft and aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists. \n\nThe company went public through a SPAC merger in 2019, and reached a peak market capitalisation of over $14 billion [in February 2021.](https://ycharts.com/companies/SPCE/market_cap) However, since that time, the company's stock price has declined dramatically, falling more than 80% to less than $2.5 billion.\n\nThe company continues to burn cash, [losing over $100 million in Q2 of 2022,](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx) and recording revenue of just $357,000 in the quarter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of August 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758208178.410194, "end_time": 1759477977.365662, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758208178.410194, "end_time": 1759477977.365662, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.24813435806192238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6360167605213906, 0.830153495206617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9292991145104746, 0.6769789788271933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5429942209064903, 0.45112864656235985, 0.30155575609455343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.4295641605657238, 0.0, 0.7421409634973282, 0.05065733435182447, 1.1490243921060073, 0.2758521521053194, 0.8629050061859964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1902336590916781, 1.0, 0.15635056202879707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22981289680703934, 0.1274765214171608, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.6909528643084111, 0.19707427392651822, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196, 0.07491012886059409, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.07807940007898889, 0.017823678094023753, 0.23014291233538697, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.021159747596370834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290066.011925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290066.011925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6529500128563894, 0.3470499871436105 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 523, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic) is an American publicly-traded spaceflight company founded by Richard Branson. The company is developing commercial spacecraft and aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists. \n\nThe company went public through a SPAC merger in 2019, and reached a peak market capitalisation of over $14 billion [in February 2021.](https://ycharts.com/companies/SPCE/market_cap) However, since that time, the company's stock price has declined dramatically, falling more than 80% to less than $2.5 billion.\n\nThe company continues to burn cash, [losing over $100 million in Q2 of 2022,](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx) and recording revenue of just $357,000 in the quarter." }, { "id": 12112, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Beyond Meat Bankruptcy before 2026", "url_title": "Beyond Meat Bankruptcy before 2026", "slug": "beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-04T00:26:18.602762Z", "published_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:44:30.422956Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 12112, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-04T00:26:18.602762Z", "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. As of March 2021, Beyond Meat products were available in approximately 118,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of $14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has imploded, declining more than 80%, leaving the company with a market cap of $2.16 billion. In August 2022, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beyond-meat-sales-under-threat-plant-based-boom-withers-2022-08-03/?taid=62eacf17fb7427000132fa56&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter):\n\n>Beyond Meat Inc is headed for an unappetizing second quarter as the plant-based food craze withers in the face of several weak product tests at restaurants and mediocre reviews.\n\nThis decline in the company's fortunes has [led some to speculate that the company will go bankrupt if it does not cut costs](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meats-cash-burn-is-putting-the-stock-at-risk-of-falling-to-0-warns-new-constructs-11659461866): \n\n>“Beyond Meat must dramatically cut costs and lower its cash burn, or it will go bankrupt,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note released on Tuesday. “Companies with heavy cash burn and little cash on hand are risky in any market, but especially now.”\n\nOn August 3 2022, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/beyond-meat-eliminates-about-40-positions-in-cost-cutting-move?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business#xj4y7vzkg) that the company had announced a round of layoffs:\n\n>Plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat Inc. eliminated about 40 positions as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, Chief Executive Officer Ethan Brown told employees in an internal memo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2026. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Beyond Meat, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Beyond Meat, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of August 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758650278.853031, "end_time": 1758887449.502839, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758650278.853031, "end_time": 1758887449.502839, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.20276923483161352 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7445660976288506, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 1.2115031995438004, 0.0, 0.6392481672365632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9245473951713428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.28045304072399985, 0.5246747664585426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034494182022037474, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.02104826188942648, 1.6248112219110822, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.45157132927626586, 0.0, 1.4453382536401809, 0.004029996917539339, 0.3337872932516758, 1.0026632629625951, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.175429723769516, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07372065813734696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.053493066571363594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289491.950198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289491.950198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47829335979484255, 0.5217066402051574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 397, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. As of March 2021, Beyond Meat products were available in approximately 118,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of $14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has imploded, declining more than 80%, leaving the company with a market cap of $2.16 billion. In August 2022, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beyond-meat-sales-under-threat-plant-based-boom-withers-2022-08-03/?taid=62eacf17fb7427000132fa56&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter):\n\n>Beyond Meat Inc is headed for an unappetizing second quarter as the plant-based food craze withers in the face of several weak product tests at restaurants and mediocre reviews.\n\nThis decline in the company's fortunes has [led some to speculate that the company will go bankrupt if it does not cut costs](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meats-cash-burn-is-putting-the-stock-at-risk-of-falling-to-0-warns-new-constructs-11659461866): \n\n>“Beyond Meat must dramatically cut costs and lower its cash burn, or it will go bankrupt,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note released on Tuesday. “Companies with heavy cash burn and little cash on hand are risky in any market, but especially now.”\n\nOn August 3 2022, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/beyond-meat-eliminates-about-40-positions-in-cost-cutting-move?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business#xj4y7vzkg) that the company had announced a round of layoffs:\n\n>Plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat Inc. eliminated about 40 positions as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, Chief Executive Officer Ethan Brown told employees in an internal memo." }, { "id": 12106, "title": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?", "short_title": "TB Biologic Therapy by 2038", "url_title": "TB Biologic Therapy by 2038", "slug": "tb-biologic-therapy-by-2038", "author_id": 122601, "author_username": "jservello", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:29:31.657068Z", "published_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.663518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides “have demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models”. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a clinical trial is registered on [ClinicalTrials.gov](https://clinicaltrials.gov/) which tests a biologic therapy's efficacy against tuberculosis in human subjects. The success or efficacy of the therapy is not relevant to the resolution of the question; performance of the trial is the sole criterion. Any stage of clinical trial ([phase 1 or later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research)) will be sufficient to resolve the question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758435458.789019, "end_time": 1760669759.445284, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4136968553 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758435458.789019, "end_time": 1760669759.445284, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4136968553 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.382, 0.618 ], "means": [ 0.598754978371367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 1.2771280341749807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8506682932172095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289117.14173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289117.14173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47190123848953613, 0.5280987615104639 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides “have demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models”. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021." }, { "id": 12105, "title": "Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?", "short_title": "New Tuberculosis Vaccine before 2028", "url_title": "New Tuberculosis Vaccine before 2028", "slug": "new-tuberculosis-vaccine-before-2028", "author_id": 122601, "author_username": "jservello", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:20:17.282704Z", "published_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.918911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12105, "title": "Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:20:17.282704Z", "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some correlates of protection as a result of receiving the BCG [are unclear from studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601272/) and it may have limited efficacy in [certain contexts](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.778028/full).\r\n\r\n[TB vaccine candidates](https://www.tbvi.eu/what-we-do/pipeline-of-vaccines/) hold potential for future immunisation programmes. Recent years have shown our ability to more rapidly develop drugs than in the past, and this has understandably led to a renewed interest in [mRNA-based solutions for TB](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216257/). \r\n\r\nThe Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative published in their [2021 report](https://www.tbvi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_pipeline_TB_vaccines_final.pdf) that VPM1002, GamTBvac, M72/AS01E, MIP, and MTBVAC are in phase III trials (typically the last phase of testing before data for a medical intervention is sent away for approval to a regulatory body). The completion times reach until 2027, but this is no guarantee of their efficacy or safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new tuberculosis vaccine is approved by any one of: the [US FDA](https://www.fda.gov/), [EU EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Japan's PMDA](https://www.pmda.go.jp/english/index.html)), at any time between August 1, 2022 to January 1, 2028. \r\n\r\nNote that this question does not concern the deployment, availability, efficacy or safety of such a vaccine. The sole criterion is approval by any of the 3 regulatory agencies for the purpose of preventing any strain(s) of tuberculosis", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758381551.037106, "end_time": 1762143814.192559, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758381551.037106, "end_time": 1762143814.192559, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7870304812753257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935248795209733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2819359650965527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6847498414854892, 0.0, 0.0, 2.034000732941546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288948.13084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288948.13084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.20168118102072086, 0.7983188189792791 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some correlates of protection as a result of receiving the BCG [are unclear from studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601272/) and it may have limited efficacy in [certain contexts](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.778028/full).\r\n\r\n[TB vaccine candidates](https://www.tbvi.eu/what-we-do/pipeline-of-vaccines/) hold potential for future immunisation programmes. Recent years have shown our ability to more rapidly develop drugs than in the past, and this has understandably led to a renewed interest in [mRNA-based solutions for TB](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216257/). \r\n\r\nThe Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative published in their [2021 report](https://www.tbvi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_pipeline_TB_vaccines_final.pdf) that VPM1002, GamTBvac, M72/AS01E, MIP, and MTBVAC are in phase III trials (typically the last phase of testing before data for a medical intervention is sent away for approval to a regulatory body). The completion times reach until 2027, but this is no guarantee of their efficacy or safety." }, { "id": 12095, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "short_title": "UK Labour Government before June 2030", "url_title": "UK Labour Government before June 2030", "slug": "uk-labour-government-before-june-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-02T23:49:29.580642Z", "published_at": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.449337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12095, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "created_at": "2022-08-02T23:49:29.580642Z", "open_time": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-07T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-07T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The Labour Party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum. In all general elections since 1922, Labour has been either the governing party or the Official Opposition. There have been six Labour prime ministers and thirteen Labour ministries.\n\nAs of 2022, the last Labour government in the UK [ended with the Brown premiership in May 2010.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) Since that time, the UK has been governed by the Conservative Party, first in coalition with the Liberal Democrats until 2015, and then as either a minority or majority government. \n\nIn 2019, the Labour Party achieved its [worst result at a general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) since 1935, while the Conservatives achieved their best result since 1987. Additionally, since 2001, the Conservatives have increased their share of the popular vote in every election (though this has not always meant an increase in number of seats in Parliament).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any time before June 1, 2030, the UK has a government formed by the Labour Party, either as a majority government, a minority government, or as the senior partner (the party with the most seats) in a formal coalition government. 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The Labour Party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum. In all general elections since 1922, Labour has been either the governing party or the Official Opposition. There have been six Labour prime ministers and thirteen Labour ministries.\n\nAs of 2022, the last Labour government in the UK [ended with the Brown premiership in May 2010.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) Since that time, the UK has been governed by the Conservative Party, first in coalition with the Liberal Democrats until 2015, and then as either a minority or majority government. \n\nIn 2019, the Labour Party achieved its [worst result at a general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) since 1935, while the Conservatives achieved their best result since 1987. Additionally, since 2001, the Conservatives have increased their share of the popular vote in every election (though this has not always meant an increase in number of seats in Parliament)." }, { "id": 12046, "title": "Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "short_title": "Kwasi Kwarteng Tory Leader before 2030", "url_title": "Kwasi Kwarteng Tory Leader before 2030", "slug": "kwasi-kwarteng-tory-leader-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-01T07:20:40.688700Z", "published_at": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T07:19:45.338209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12046, "title": "Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-08-01T07:20:40.688700Z", "open_time": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-06T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-06T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kwasi Kwarteng](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwasi_Kwarteng), born 26 May 1975, is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Spelthorne since 2010. Before entering politics, he was a newspaper columnist and financial analyst.\n\nAs of July 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/25/who-next-cabinet-rishi-sunak-liz-truss) that Kwarteng may be made Chancellor of the Exchequer, the UK's finance minister, if Liz Truss is elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party and becomes Prime Minister. Truss and Kwarteng have previously collaborated on the 2012 book [Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained). \n\nThe office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, alongside Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, is one of the UK's [Great Offices of State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Offices_of_State). In recent years, several MPs who have held these offices have become leaders of the Conservative Party. Then-serving Home Secretary Theresa May became Conservative leader in 2016, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson became Conservative leader in 2019, and currently serving Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is (as of August 1) [the runaway favourite](https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/07/20/15-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader) to be elected the next Conservative leader.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kwasi Kwarteng holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758634270.679137, "end_time": 1758912605.512206, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758634270.679137, "end_time": 1758912605.512206, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.007343538450858876 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.405026110487002, 1.3230086514601376, 0.6782416881858238, 0.1251935490393431, 0.17652900265006702, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288136.696799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288136.696799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kwasi Kwarteng](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwasi_Kwarteng), born 26 May 1975, is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Spelthorne since 2010. Before entering politics, he was a newspaper columnist and financial analyst.\n\nAs of July 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/25/who-next-cabinet-rishi-sunak-liz-truss) that Kwarteng may be made Chancellor of the Exchequer, the UK's finance minister, if Liz Truss is elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party and becomes Prime Minister. Truss and Kwarteng have previously collaborated on the 2012 book [Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained). \n\nThe office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, alongside Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, is one of the UK's [Great Offices of State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Offices_of_State). In recent years, several MPs who have held these offices have become leaders of the Conservative Party. Then-serving Home Secretary Theresa May became Conservative leader in 2016, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson became Conservative leader in 2019, and currently serving Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is (as of August 1) [the runaway favourite](https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/07/20/15-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader) to be elected the next Conservative leader." }, { "id": 12041, "title": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "short_title": "Armed Conflict in the Balkans", "url_title": "Armed Conflict in the Balkans", "slug": "armed-conflict-in-the-balkans", "author_id": 118658, "author_username": "demirev", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-31T20:37:27.530474Z", "published_at": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.490135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:08:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12041, "title": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "created_at": "2022-07-31T20:37:27.530474Z", "open_time": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T02:09:15.762997Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-break-up), prompting some commentators to speculate that this may result in a war / civil war. This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least a medium magnitude in the region. To avoid any possible conflict on the definition of 'war' or 'civil war', the question is stated in terms of casualties of armed conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 500 combatants of any side in any potential armed conflict in the Balkans are reported KIA by at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) before January 1, 2025. If multiple armed conflicts occur within the specified time frame, the question will resolve positively if the sum of combatant casualties in all conflicts exceeds 500.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the Balkans consist of: **Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia**. These are all countries with 20%+ of their territory south of the Danube-Sava rivers. Note that this excludes Turkey and Romania.", "post_id": 12041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654833.569516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654833.569516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02246167205993877 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.137372986335238, 1.7916435015053163, 0.3366313000847743, 0.03347322664802679, 0.6869180119264404, 0.13125720433027036, 0.1874727013882846, 0.036857441906747584, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.025702770650142415, 0.5182104564900734, 0.1545958694210535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000227009300229, 0.04235425051830675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04709892323630396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18351837136595764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11089172218023127, 0.0, 0.11984158076934844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008171104020897034, 0.0, 0.0625760055549752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031656328832848765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.61045735635967, "peer_score": 10.418542836904729, "coverage": 0.999936059849565, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999936059849565, "spot_peer_score": 27.11006983952167, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 75.61045735635967, "peer_archived_score": 10.418542836904729, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.11006983952167, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287950.26231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287950.26231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 293, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-break-up), prompting some commentators to speculate that this may result in a war / civil war. This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least a medium magnitude in the region. To avoid any possible conflict on the definition of 'war' or 'civil war', the question is stated in terms of casualties of armed conflict." }, { "id": 12020, "title": "Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?", "short_title": "UK re-entry into the European Economic Area", "url_title": "UK re-entry into the European Economic Area", "slug": "uk-re-entry-into-the-european-economic-area", "author_id": 122154, "author_username": "biloliiaa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-29T14:57:15.070291Z", "published_at": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T03:18:55.622108Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12020, "title": "Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?", "created_at": "2022-07-29T14:57:15.070291Z", "open_time": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-03T00:50:08.974179Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-03T00:50:08.974179Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Under the terms of the [UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement) and the [UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement), the UK left the European single market on December 31, 2021. \n\nThe [European single market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_single_market) consists of member states of the EU as well as – with certain exceptions – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway through the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area). Switzerland is also considered a member of the European single market through bilateral treaties it has entered into with the EU, but is not a member of the European Economic Area and does not apply the entirety of EU acquis.\n\n[Opinion polling since 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)) has shown narrow support for British re-entry into the European Union. There is also public discussion of British re-entry into the European single market falling short of re-entry into the European Union, such as entry into the European Economic Area. \n\n[Age-stratified polling](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-19-20-june-2022/) shows large majorities for re-entry into the EU in the 18-24 and 25-34 cohorts, with a majority in the 35-44 cohort as well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2040, the UK is a member of the European Economic Area, either as a member of the European Union or as a member of the European Free Trade Association that has ratified the Agreement on European Economic Area.", "fine_print": "This question has been worded so as to only resolve positively if the UK is a member of the European Economic Area, which includes the European Union member states as well as the three European Free Trade Association member states that ratified the Agreement on European Economic Area (namely Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein). It therefore excludes a relationship like that which Switzerland has with the EU, where it is a member of the European single market through various bilateral agreements.", "post_id": 12020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758251924.9818, "end_time": 1760286303.592838, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758251924.9818, "end_time": 1760286303.592838, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6390332363605478 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03513810136237429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35918636306610896, 0.0, 0.14039373355087437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33171761475866546, 0.0, 0.007771029217319173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.45337725660330125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15878796862528974, 1.9695836969716103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1716736810742311, 0.18422176936144166, 0.010888565211072518, 0.0, 0.41990426677267545, 2.5990159474621115, 0.3563442278691134, 1.1103883422433998, 0.0, 0.38854550310770575, 0.0, 0.6866574923541666, 0.0, 0.20150318820778634, 0.0, 0.400056044652989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36509464233738587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09551526241989404, 0.0, 0.10156087179070554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6109045031913718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0202624472595465 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288696.261414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288696.261414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5652352385676489, 0.43476476143235104 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Under the terms of the [UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement) and the [UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement), the UK left the European single market on December 31, 2021. \n\nThe [European single market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_single_market) consists of member states of the EU as well as – with certain exceptions – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway through the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area). Switzerland is also considered a member of the European single market through bilateral treaties it has entered into with the EU, but is not a member of the European Economic Area and does not apply the entirety of EU acquis.\n\n[Opinion polling since 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)) has shown narrow support for British re-entry into the European Union. There is also public discussion of British re-entry into the European single market falling short of re-entry into the European Union, such as entry into the European Economic Area. \n\n[Age-stratified polling](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-19-20-june-2022/) shows large majorities for re-entry into the EU in the 18-24 and 25-34 cohorts, with a majority in the 35-44 cohort as well." }, { "id": 12001, "title": "Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?", "short_title": "US state mask mandate before Feb 1st, 2023", "url_title": "US state mask mandate before Feb 1st, 2023", "slug": "us-state-mask-mandate-before-feb-1st-2023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-27T00:59:44.482628Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.836332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12001, "title": "Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?", "created_at": "2022-07-27T00:59:44.482628Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Make mandates were widely introduced around the world to limit the spread of Covid-19. However, as of July 26th 2022, [all US states have scrapped their indoor mask mandates](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, and after the opening of this question, at least one US state implements an indoor mask mandate that applies to people in supermarkets. [This source](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html) can be used for resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12001, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675214077.2738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675214077.2738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017591733187408008 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.1835552648000585, 10.566198228793343, 0.5871161096157156, 0.2766738718257254, 0.015466976053567325, 1.323678918870725, 0.0, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.07879222225272986, 0.0, 0.0920078614354144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06118485830454136, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011821796854890113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01043759841194958, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.19713517485013082, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.06324954776192306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035489586503395306, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001072543509344465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042478303617855785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012636707624103119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.144994935052194, "coverage": 0.9999312388568985, "baseline_score": 60.269629261559714, "spot_peer_score": 20.33926216527494, "peer_archived_score": 10.144994935052194, "baseline_archived_score": 60.269629261559714, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.33926216527494 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675237336.757732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675237336.757732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Make mandates were widely introduced around the world to limit the spread of Covid-19. However, as of July 26th 2022, [all US states have scrapped their indoor mask mandates](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html)." }, { "id": 12000, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?", "short_title": "Tesla first company with autonomous success", "url_title": "Tesla first company with autonomous success", "slug": "tesla-first-company-with-autonomous-success", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-26T22:18:45.069889Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T04:42:29.511779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12000, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?", "created_at": "2022-07-26T22:18:45.069889Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is taken from [this bet](https://longbets.org/887/) on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and\nMichael P Dierickx challenged the prediction.", "resolution_criteria": "The terms are reproduced from the [Long Bets website](https://longbets.org/887/),\n\n> Tesla would need at least 1 million cars on the road.\n\n> No other no other entity will have reached this milestone before Tesla\n\n> These cars would be SAE Level 4 Capable (as defined by: https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_202104/) for the full US cross country journey between 1652 Maiden Hair Ct, South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150, USA and 46 Klein Rd, Fort Kent, ME 04743 during all normal weather conditions that leave the road open and passable in a standard car.\n\n> SAE Level 4 will be considered safer than human drivers\n\n> This capability will be usable by the commercial public (i.e. at least tens of millions of consumers will have the option to pay for and use SAE Level 4).\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Yarrow Bouchard the winner of the bet, this question resolves positively. If they declare Michael P Dierickx the winner of this bet, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758688939.029916, "end_time": 1760406169.637593, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.471 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758688939.029916, "end_time": 1760406169.637593, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.471 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6446536738908654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.17469297141294798, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.16283381898698981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.31229442409890784, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.18125574861973415, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5025700396642065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3452102074478363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0814176464278084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 2.099493620982892 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288724.170842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288724.170842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6571325774292012, 0.34286742257079883 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is taken from [this bet](https://longbets.org/887/) on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and\nMichael P Dierickx challenged the prediction." }, { "id": 11975, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?", "short_title": "Pelosi Visit to Taiwan in 2022", "url_title": "Pelosi Visit to Taiwan in 2022", "slug": "pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-in-2022", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-25T03:23:01.886291Z", "published_at": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.655658Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11975, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-07-25T03:23:01.886291Z", "open_time": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-27T01:49:34.061479Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-27T01:49:34.061479Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of [many previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&main-feed&search=Taiwan).\n\nIn July 2022, the Financial Times [reported](https://archive.ph/7LCHb) that [Nancy Pelosi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi) [would](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/china/china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html) [visit](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration [were worried](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have [flown over Taiwan's ADIZ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/taiwan-reports-largest-ever-incursion-as-38-chinese-planes-fly-over-air-space), which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis), following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan, as reported by reliable media outlets. \"Taiwan\" for the purposes of this question is any territory under the de facto sovereignty of the Republic of China.", "fine_print": "Visiting only non-Taiwan parts of ROC like Kinmen is still enough to trigger positive resolution.", "post_id": 11975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659457116.295628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659457116.295628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9710185626151665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00014505816309232794, 0.0, 0.0003151373724306775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02245302327317597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029674479600248042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00034863626606894556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003408879931309117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001924137498613383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021119294336889383, 0.0, 0.004768572472182695, 0.0, 0.005090721810490461, 0.0027501972622835484, 0.0027658325536118614, 9.662406367042021e-06, 0.0, 2.7208213753059447e-05, 0.062424159060714586, 7.747498399555727e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00137188167591332, 0.0002528306123521575, 0.0008714068235809071, 0.005691025568024508, 0.0, 0.049212529378038584, 0.10392751379970605, 0.00012825611473354196, 0.0001038088073296138, 0.14717684623944166, 0.49383180060212173, 0.0012852746216931211, 0.000615105331564898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042694813293123884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033508295599675537, 0.0, 0.008739447529384013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007452366481422634, 0.017021347634601624, 1.030202598257392, 0.0, 0.016087374125007305, 0.610834381219058, 0.13447423672959435, 0.7184068756944034, 0.23607313966488008, 0.5163473317988602, 0.3224530899463083, 19.845986121522223 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.30321201145444304, "coverage": 0.04283459376863571, "baseline_score": 2.048208314478644, "spot_peer_score": 7.613268852364207, "peer_archived_score": 0.30321201145444304, "baseline_archived_score": 2.048208314478644, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.613268852364207 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659451564.883369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659451564.883369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0783687753301282, 0.9216312246698718 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 537, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of [many previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&main-feed&search=Taiwan).\n\nIn July 2022, the Financial Times [reported](https://archive.ph/7LCHb) that [Nancy Pelosi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi) [would](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/china/china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html) [visit](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration [were worried](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have [flown over Taiwan's ADIZ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/taiwan-reports-largest-ever-incursion-as-38-chinese-planes-fly-over-air-space), which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis), following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater." }, { "id": 11939, "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?", "short_title": "US CDC Recommends Vaccination for All MSM", "url_title": "US CDC Recommends Vaccination for All MSM", "slug": "us-cdc-recommends-vaccination-for-all-msm", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-21T18:25:28.704195Z", "published_at": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.943706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T07:07:21.526200Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T07:07:21.526200Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11939, "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?", "created_at": "2022-07-21T18:25:28.704195Z", "open_time": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-26T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-26T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Monkeypox is a virus that is closely related to but distinct from smallpox and which, until recently, was [limited](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) to parts of Central Africa and West Africa where the virus has animal reservoirs. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" \n\nAn [ongoing outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak) of monkeypox was confirmed in the spring of 2022, beginning with a cluster of cases found in the United Kingdom. Since May 2022, human-to-human transmission has been known to be occurring in areas where monkeypox has has not been previously endemic, including Europe, North America, and South America. As of July 21, 2022, there have been [15.3k](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=1289291271) confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox reported globally in countries outside Central/West Africa.\n\nCases have [mostly](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-the-monkeypox-outbreak-is-mostly-affecting-men-who-have-sex-with-men) but [not exclusively](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.29.2200552?emailalert=true) been identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) . Most transmission events seem to be occurring in sexual networks, likely through prolonged skin-to-skin contact. \n\nThe vaccine most widely used at the moment for preventing monkeypox infection is [JYNNEOS](https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/jynneos-smallpox-monkeypox-vaccine), which is the only monkeypox vaccine that has been [licensed](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/jynneos) by the US FDA. \n\nThe US CDC is [currently recommending](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html) the following regarding vaccination:\n*\"CDC recommends vaccination for people who have been in close contact with people who have monkeypox. Currently, this outbreak is largely affecting gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. People who may be eligible for vaccination include:\"*\n>\n- People who have been identified by public health officials as a contact of someone with monkeypox\n- People who may have been exposed to monkeypox, such as: (1) People who are aware that one of their sexual partners in the past 2 weeks has been diagnosed with monkeypox, (2) People who had multiple sexual partners in the past 2 weeks in an area with known monkeypox cases\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand what future guidance on vaccination efforts might look like. This may inform state efforts to pursue a broader vaccination campaign as opposed to [ring vaccination](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/public-health/ring-vaccination.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC updates its monkeypox vaccination recommendations so that it, at minimum, it recommends that **all** MSM (not just those who have had multiple sex partners in recent weeks) in the **entire** US (not just areas where monkeypox cases have been confirmed) be made eligible for vaccination and that it moreover recommends that members of this group should be vaccinated", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672586775.953083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672586775.953083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020923678972427705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.110514604871973, 0.28807439937996304, 0.24872457007543428, 0.0, 0.3404374516636412, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06006016621969254, 0.07982935021231018, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021384087234125715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.035870519966027276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.3426107668685425, "coverage": 0.9933138867233462, "baseline_score": 31.67971384954257, "spot_peer_score": 14.876236754280656, "peer_archived_score": 7.3426107668685425, "baseline_archived_score": 31.67971384954257, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.876236754280656 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672472605.516923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672472605.516923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Monkeypox is a virus that is closely related to but distinct from smallpox and which, until recently, was [limited](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) to parts of Central Africa and West Africa where the virus has animal reservoirs. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" \n\nAn [ongoing outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak) of monkeypox was confirmed in the spring of 2022, beginning with a cluster of cases found in the United Kingdom. Since May 2022, human-to-human transmission has been known to be occurring in areas where monkeypox has has not been previously endemic, including Europe, North America, and South America. As of July 21, 2022, there have been [15.3k](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=1289291271) confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox reported globally in countries outside Central/West Africa.\n\nCases have [mostly](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-the-monkeypox-outbreak-is-mostly-affecting-men-who-have-sex-with-men) but [not exclusively](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.29.2200552?emailalert=true) been identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) . Most transmission events seem to be occurring in sexual networks, likely through prolonged skin-to-skin contact. \n\nThe vaccine most widely used at the moment for preventing monkeypox infection is [JYNNEOS](https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/jynneos-smallpox-monkeypox-vaccine), which is the only monkeypox vaccine that has been [licensed](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/jynneos) by the US FDA. \n\nThe US CDC is [currently recommending](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html) the following regarding vaccination:\n*\"CDC recommends vaccination for people who have been in close contact with people who have monkeypox. Currently, this outbreak is largely affecting gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. People who may be eligible for vaccination include:\"*\n>\n- People who have been identified by public health officials as a contact of someone with monkeypox\n- People who may have been exposed to monkeypox, such as: (1) People who are aware that one of their sexual partners in the past 2 weeks has been diagnosed with monkeypox, (2) People who had multiple sexual partners in the past 2 weeks in an area with known monkeypox cases\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand what future guidance on vaccination efforts might look like. This may inform state efforts to pursue a broader vaccination campaign as opposed to [ring vaccination](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/public-health/ring-vaccination.html)." }, { "id": 11919, "title": "Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine Hits Russia w/US Rocket", "url_title": "Ukraine Hits Russia w/US Rocket", "slug": "ukraine-hits-russia-wus-rocket", "author_id": 120766, "author_username": "jonathannankivell", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-19T11:26:33.284881Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.408332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11919, "title": "Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?", "created_at": "2022-07-19T11:26:33.284881Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army) that Ukraine would not use them against targets on Russian soil. According to public knowledge, that condition has not since been relaxed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if HIMARS, or any other American-provided artillery rocket or tactical ballistic missile system firing a warhead at least as heavy as the standard HIMARS rocket's ~200 pounds, is used against targets on Russian soil by Ukraine or Ukraine-aligned forces before July 1, 2023.\n\nMetaculus will consider all credible sources to determine whether an attack on Russian soil can be attributed to Ukraine and to US weapons systems.\n\nAmbiguous resolution will not be selected unless at least two months have passed since the last relevant alleged or disputed rocket strike incident that occurred before July 2023, so as to allow time for clarifying information to surface.\n\nRussian soil means territory that was broadly recognized as Russian on January 1, 2014, prior to the first phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, and prior to the multiple Russian armed takeovers and self-declared annexations of formerly Ukrainian-controlled territories", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688158682.103088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688158682.103088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040158798084746025 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.576027834779486, 6.209120661706345, 1.4522120730819101, 1.5532990191988723, 0.7065763567498805, 3.1623006197226426, 1.0957311699550787, 0.06715165376840072, 0.2662626334872887, 0.09372304225525503, 0.01327025004659466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039847443051848945, 0.03518238236030273, 0.03346026184443715, 0.022672650554664806, 0.04476123423122462, 0.0, 0.017435484311477102, 0.040489876806055876, 0.14557045699324983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04399295600050929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4251326814013262, 0.0, 0.0961905519965238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030641044197464665, 0.0, 0.000270310893408561, 0.09676420659415154, 0.0, 0.08180045940927602, 0.001947789824515951, 0.02896006549424842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011357208052754583, 0.009098119385622555, 0.013280479299666087, 0.10423139374457896, 0.0010678085286069262, 0.0001320779292748224, 0.0014552717956485787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016067478993924448, 0.0227013521895371, 0.002572056106221227, 0.0008584117833175608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.0005353645749357605, 0.05656818485625512, 0.000360863308118855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004134784305847012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031326503155383454 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.87966031175818, "coverage": 0.9998748655921587, "baseline_score": 12.420234511323974, "spot_peer_score": 10.070023134555822, "peer_archived_score": 9.87966031175818, "baseline_archived_score": 12.420234511323974, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.070023134555822 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688158682.142609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688158682.142609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9916533295733211, 0.008346670426678936 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 432, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army) that Ukraine would not use them against targets on Russian soil. According to public knowledge, that condition has not since been relaxed." }, { "id": 11904, "title": "Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?", "short_title": "Labor runs alone in 2022 Israel election", "url_title": "Labor runs alone in 2022 Israel election", "slug": "labor-runs-alone-in-2022-israel-election", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-18T02:07:53.125128Z", "published_at": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.585552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11904, "title": "Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?", "created_at": "2022-07-18T02:07:53.125128Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-16T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-16T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel is [having an election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11654/next-israeli-prime-minister/) on November 1, 2022. The Blue and White Party and New Hope Party, two anti-Netanyahu parties, have announced that they will [run together](https://www.timesofisrael.com/blue-and-white-new-hope-confirm-new-union-will-run-as-joint-slate-in-november-vote/) in the election. T[he Israeli Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party), the party that [all Prime Ministers in the early days of the state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party) were affiliated with recently had a [primary](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-712334). The [leader Merav Michaeli](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-712384) wants Labor to run alone, whereas challenger Eran Hermoni [wanted the Labor party to merge](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-711902) with a \"centrist party\" such as Lapid's Yesh Atid. The Labor Party allied with Hatnuah as the [Zionist Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionist_Union) in the 2015 Israeli election, and [allied with Gesher and Meretz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor-Gesher-Meretz) in 2020. Lists of candidates are due to be submitted on September 15, and the election is on November 1. Former Meretz leader [Zehava Gal-On](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-announcing-return-to-politics-zehava-galon-says-shes-eyeing-meretz-labor-merger/) will contest the Meretz primary, and supports a Labor-Meretz merger.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Israeli Labor Party does not run in a joint slate with any other parties, as per credible media sources. It will resolve as **No** if the Israeli Labor Party runs in a joint slate with at least one other party", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11904, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662842700.68934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662842700.68934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5531420715319436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22783087461204504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.9223139665550486, 1.1599591630675348, 3.495531397420983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.611491535705001, "coverage": 0.9500728989927594, "baseline_score": -5.42234588708059, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 1.611491535705001, "baseline_archived_score": -5.42234588708059, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662842700.706204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662842700.706204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4352121293575568, 0.5647878706424432 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel is [having an election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11654/next-israeli-prime-minister/) on November 1, 2022. The Blue and White Party and New Hope Party, two anti-Netanyahu parties, have announced that they will [run together](https://www.timesofisrael.com/blue-and-white-new-hope-confirm-new-union-will-run-as-joint-slate-in-november-vote/) in the election. T[he Israeli Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party), the party that [all Prime Ministers in the early days of the state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party) were affiliated with recently had a [primary](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-712334). The [leader Merav Michaeli](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-712384) wants Labor to run alone, whereas challenger Eran Hermoni [wanted the Labor party to merge](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-711902) with a \"centrist party\" such as Lapid's Yesh Atid. The Labor Party allied with Hatnuah as the [Zionist Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionist_Union) in the 2015 Israeli election, and [allied with Gesher and Meretz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor-Gesher-Meretz) in 2020. Lists of candidates are due to be submitted on September 15, and the election is on November 1. Former Meretz leader [Zehava Gal-On](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-announcing-return-to-politics-zehava-galon-says-shes-eyeing-meretz-labor-merger/) will contest the Meretz primary, and supports a Labor-Meretz merger." }, { "id": 11856, "title": "Will Israel join the EU before 2050?", "short_title": "Israel EU Membership by 2050", "url_title": "Israel EU Membership by 2050", "slug": "israel-eu-membership-by-2050", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-14T00:34:49.586703Z", "published_at": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.715471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11856, "title": "Will Israel join the EU before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-07-14T00:34:49.586703Z", "open_time": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>Although Israel is not geographically located in Europe, it is a member in many European transnational federations and frameworks, and takes part in many European sporting events and the Eurovision Song Contest.\n\nCyprus, which is located very close to Israel, has been a [member of the EU for many years](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/cyprus_en).\n\nAgain from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself currently proposes instead the closest possible integration \"just short of full membership.\" Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between October 5, 2022 to December 31, 2049, inclusive. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. 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hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself currently proposes instead the closest possible integration \"just short of full membership.\" Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon." }, { "id": 11855, "title": "Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Tesla Bankruptcy before 2026?", "url_title": "Tesla Bankruptcy before 2026?", "slug": "tesla-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-13T21:49:01.342688Z", "published_at": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.649345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11855, "title": "Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-07-13T21:49:01.342688Z", "open_time": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T16:02:29.265569Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T16:02:29.265569Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (electric cars and trucks), battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla is one of the world's most valuable companies and remains the world's most valuable automaker with a market capitalization of more than $950 billion as of September 2022. In 2021, [it made history](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/investing/tesla-stock-trillion-dollar-market-cap/index.html) as the first automaker to achieve a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.\n\nDespite this extraordinary run of success in the markets, Tesla [has long been one of the most-shorted companies,](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-tesla-tech-stocks-short-sellers-elon-musk-ev-autos-2022-9) and CEO Elon Musk has [stated](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/cars/elon-musk-tesla-losses-bankruptcy-threat/index.html) that the company continues to face significant challenges that pose a risk of bankrupting the automaker:\n\n>\"The past two years have been an absolute nightmare of supply chain interruptions, one thing after another,\" Musk said in an interview with a Tesla owners group. \"We're not out of it yet. That's overwhelmingly our concern is how do we keep the factories operating so we can pay people and not go bankrupt.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Tesla, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Tesla, Inc. or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Tesla, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of September 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057266.818258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057266.818258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05484169464730186 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4789156075816514, 7.511795636897954, 1.6742075205270437, 0.5408464331859202, 0.07034599129182002, 0.11878036582253579, 0.2796605246591077, 0.39393617421927296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37517118826059387, 0.18214514839267099, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4191576116334327, 0.0, 0.5607357997519564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.615523979804894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09818838287618935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057266.846711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057266.846711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980852500450516, 0.0019147499549484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (electric cars and trucks), battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla is one of the world's most valuable companies and remains the world's most valuable automaker with a market capitalization of more than $950 billion as of September 2022. In 2021, [it made history](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/investing/tesla-stock-trillion-dollar-market-cap/index.html) as the first automaker to achieve a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.\n\nDespite this extraordinary run of success in the markets, Tesla [has long been one of the most-shorted companies,](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-tesla-tech-stocks-short-sellers-elon-musk-ev-autos-2022-9) and CEO Elon Musk has [stated](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/cars/elon-musk-tesla-losses-bankruptcy-threat/index.html) that the company continues to face significant challenges that pose a risk of bankrupting the automaker:\n\n>\"The past two years have been an absolute nightmare of supply chain interruptions, one thing after another,\" Musk said in an interview with a Tesla owners group. \"We're not out of it yet. That's overwhelmingly our concern is how do we keep the factories operating so we can pay people and not go bankrupt.\"" }, { "id": 11847, "title": "Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?", "short_title": "Will Brandy Bottone be found guilty?", "url_title": "Will Brandy Bottone be found guilty?", "slug": "will-brandy-bottone-be-found-guilty", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-13T14:53:18.377095Z", "published_at": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.052002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11847, "title": "Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?", "created_at": "2022-07-13T14:53:18.377095Z", "open_time": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-17T14:35:05.105956Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-17T14:35:05.105956Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brandy Bottone, 32, of Plano, TX, was pulled over on June 29 by a police officer looking for HOV lane violators. Texas HOV lane rules require more than one occupant to be in a vehicle. Bottone told officers that under Texas law, in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, a fetus counts as a person and was therefore the second occupant of the vehicle under the law. \n\nBottone plans to fight the ticket, which carries a potential penalty of $215. The trial date is set for July 20, 2022. \n\nFor more background: [Local NBC News story](https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/pregnant-woman-cited-for-hov-violation-says-her-unborn-baby-should-count-as-second-person/3010193/)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if Brandy Bottone pleads guilty, nolo contendere (no contest), or is found guilty per credible media reporting, regardless of sentence. 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