Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3660
{ "count": 6374, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3640", "results": [ { "id": 17110, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "short_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "url_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "slug": "us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-16T14:55:20.668625Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:03:49.399784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17110, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T14:55:20.668625Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, the US or California government requires a license or permit of some type to do large training runs of AIs, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question will be interpreted broadly. There are many types of licenses and permits, and most would qualify, regardless of the requirements stipulated to get such licenses or permits, as long as they apply generally to training large AI systems in either all of the US or in California.\n\n\"Large training runs\" here can be measured in various ways, and will be interpreted broadly. If measured in FLOPs, then admins will define large as at least 10% the estimated FLOPs used by OpenAI to train GPT-4, 2.1 * 10^25.", "post_id": 17110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763097781.611948, "end_time": 1770833886.216, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763097781.611948, "end_time": 1770833886.216, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00641029449074083 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.993186236808911, 1.2739210964418386, 0.0, 0.2791006976425958, 0.0, 0.18626999960102558, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290122.43726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290122.43726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9815957006954673, 0.018404299304532683 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license." }, { "id": 17104, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "short_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "url_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "slug": "3-ai-labs-constrain-capabilities-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-14T18:55:34.273231Z", 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"forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17104, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-14T18:55:34.273231Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if by Dec 31 2025, three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "* A \"joint statement\" refers to a document that is explicitly authored or endorsed by each party. A technical paper does not qualify.\n\n* \"committing to constrain their AI's capabilities\" will be interpreted narrowly. For example, a commitment to prevent certain types of restricted speech, or a commitment to always do Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback, will not qualify. The constraints must be on the general capabilities of the AIs - for example, committing to not using more than a certain amount of compute, or committing to not deploying a model until it verifiably cannot perform certain tasks, such as recursive self-improvement.", "post_id": 17104, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762995338.188026, "end_time": 1765038681.976, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762995338.188026, "end_time": 1765038681.976, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01306816743335362 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.085835307251323, 1.970469835453771, 1.0, 0.3390646866665474, 0.17421269069092077, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria." }, { "id": 17103, "title": "Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?", "short_title": "AI in 2024 Presidential Debates", "url_title": "AI in 2024 Presidential Debates", "slug": "ai-in-2024-presidential-debates", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-14T18:45:14.539305Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.815780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-10T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T18:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 198, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", 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US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed societal issues. For example, the [2020 debates between Biden and Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates) had segments on each of \"fighting COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if both Democratic and Republican candidates say at least 2 sentences largely about AI during the official 2024 Presidential debates, and otherwise resolve as **NO**.", "fine_print": "The discussion of AI must be about it being relevant for American policy. For example, discussing AI in the context of job loss, misinformation campaigns, schooling, or American competitiveness qualifies; discussing using ChatGPT to tell a joke does not. 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As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.\n\nThe export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. 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As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI." }, { "id": 17100, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "short_title": "US API 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, US law requires at least some powerful generative AI systems to restrict API access to only people in the US, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* \"Powerful generative AI systems\" refers to AI that can solve a wide variety of tasks, such as GPT-4, and DALLE-2. Systems that translate, do text -> audio or audio -> text, summarize, search, etc. will not count as \"generative\". If unclear, admins will determine \"powerful\" by whether the AI is known to frequently generate things that typically bother governments, such as Deep Fakes or instructions to build weapons.\n\n* \"Restrict\" here will be interpreted broadly. It could be by requiring AI owners to check IPs, like with DRM; it could be by requiring people to verify their identity to get API access tokens, like with KYC. Doesn't matter how easy it is to circumvent such restrictions such as via VPN.\n\n* \"Only people in the US\" will be interpreted broadly, it may include Americans who are abroad, or include non-permanent residents who are visiting, or require some verification only Americans can get like Social Security numbers.", "post_id": 17100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762734329.549517, "end_time": 1764475769.674517, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762734329.549517, "end_time": 1764475769.674517, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05165225401860619 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.984590159588638, 3.43392738201456, 1.3493589486314312, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.26325921892490284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289098.237285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289098.237285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9519838331404131, 0.04801616685958688 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)" }, { "id": 17096, "title": "Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?", "short_title": "US tracks training runs by 2026", "url_title": "US tracks training runs by 2026", "slug": "us-tracks-training-runs-by-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:45:04.271273Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.924543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17096, "title": "Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:45:04.271273Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict training of large AI models in any capacity. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to report this training, and to audit such reports.\n\nA similar regime exists for labor - firms must report how many employees they have (and have various obligations resulting from that). Another parallel might be reporting for the amount of CO2 the company emits. Such regulation may be tied to taxes or statements of public disclosure.\n\nA list of large AI training runs can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). See also [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) for much more information about AI training resource costs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires that large training runs done by any individual or corporation are reported to US authorities, and verifies such reports, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The law(s) need not apply to non-US entities, even if they use US computational resources and are covered by other regulation such as [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China).\n\n\"Large training runs\" here can be measured in various ways, and will be interpreted broadly. If measured in FLOPs, then admins will define large as at least 10% the estimated FLOPs used by OpenAI to train GPT-4, 2.1 * 10^25.\n\n\"Reported to US authorities\" here will be interpreted broadly - laws requiring any clearly defined reporting mechanism to any part of the US Federal government qualify.\n\n\"Verifies\" here will be interpreted broadly. For example, public companies may be legally required to hire independent evaluators, as is done with accounting.", "post_id": 17096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712809727.502958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712809727.502958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5381864706481755 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009068835181816455, 0.0, 0.759727605163844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.845118916157503, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0105689540850258, 0.036618791251766876, 0.19519530604924692, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.6375384979936665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.37068749199850365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.06057091202132427, 0.7126735024003407, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0, 0.2902867700328057, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8749085186757798, 0.6232909478721508, 0.5242754350840009, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431007191772122, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0481588196652791, 0.0, 0.31768015703601027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228311751426085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.16316834760854618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2680970302483232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5770453408276514, 0.0, 0.15062225698690318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9356445192922368 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.495025260092939, "coverage": 0.17334658198050415, "baseline_score": -18.794864628276134, "spot_peer_score": -3.2862306605049776, "peer_archived_score": 5.495025260092939, "baseline_archived_score": -18.794864628276134, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.2862306605049776 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697309029.654136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697309029.654136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7776196840900094, 0.22238031590999058 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict training of large AI models in any capacity. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to report this training, and to audit such reports.\n\nA similar regime exists for labor - firms must report how many employees they have (and have various obligations resulting from that). Another parallel might be reporting for the amount of CO2 the company emits. Such regulation may be tied to taxes or statements of public disclosure.\n\nA list of large AI training runs can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). See also [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) for much more information about AI training resource costs." }, { "id": 17095, "title": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?", "short_title": "US restricts compute before 2026?", "url_title": "US restricts compute before 2026?", "slug": "us-restricts-compute-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:24:08.246510Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:05:26.332009Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17095, "title": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:24:08.246510Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.\n\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.\n\nLegal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, US law places at least some restrictions on the total amount of compute capacity that any individual or corporation may purchase, manufacture, or possess, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "While many types of restrictions may qualify (# of chips of certain types, total power used in datacenters, etc.), the restrictions must be absolute in some degree. For example, taxes (like a carbon tax) would not qualify, nor would a licensing process (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17110/us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026/).)\n\nIt count only if certain types of compute are restricted, such as total GPUs or TPUs, this still resolves positively.\n\nThe restrictions must apply throughout the US and to all US-based companies, though need not apply to non-US entities that also use US supply chains or technology.\n\nIf the restrictions apply only to fully public people/companies, and not to state-owned or partially-state-owned orgs (as is the case with nuclear power), this still resolves positively.", "post_id": 17095, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761800752.996056, "end_time": 1763678626.906, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761800752.996056, "end_time": 1763678626.906, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.047520204375017444 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.151430108965375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9985467973801464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12512387696460112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289909.377118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289909.377118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.992320102623121, 0.007679897376879068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.\n\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.\n\nLegal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment." }, { "id": 17094, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "short_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "url_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "slug": "gpu-tracking-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:10:19.738838Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:05:37.236926Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T13:59:45.393757Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17094, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:10:19.738838Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Training large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires purchasers of a large number of GPUs to report their usage in the training of large AI models, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Each point in the resolution will be interpreted broadly:\n\n* Can be any reasonable definition of GPUs, such as all NVIDIA or ARM GPUs covered by the export controls established in 2022. If training of large AI systems can be done by a wider set of chips, resolves based on whether such chips are generally implicated by these laws.\n\n* \"Large number of GPUs\" here can be any reasonable threshold, such as >100 GPUs, or >$100k of GPUs.\n\n* \"training of large AI models\" will be interpreted broadly - for example, requiring firmware that tracks whether _any_ ML training is occurring would qualify. However, the regulations must apply at the level of chip monitoring - it is not sufficient that the purchasers of GPUs must summarize their usage patterns qualitatively.\n\n* \"Report\" here means that the usage must be reported to some governing authority, at a level of detail such that the governing authorities can clearly determine if large AI models have been trained using the chips.", "post_id": 17094, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763126865.252891, "end_time": 1765718865.878, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763126865.252891, "end_time": 1765718865.878, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.024202933752012743 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0165699635061243, 2.885048348936063, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287764.814703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287764.814703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.933797237513552, 0.06620276248644798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Training large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips." }, { "id": 17090, "title": "Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia damages Patriot air defense system?", "url_title": "Russia damages Patriot air defense system?", "slug": "russia-damages-patriot-air-defense-system", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-12T23:19:15.954724Z", "published_at": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.345461Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17090, "title": "Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-12T23:19:15.954724Z", "open_time": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-18T17:41:42.137577Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-18T17:41:42.137577Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine) missile towards a [Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64231654). \n\nUkraine has [at least two](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html) such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany.\n\n> The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time.\n\n[Ukraine said](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/06/1174505616/ukraine-patriot-defense-russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal) the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery.\n\nAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 billion, including $400 million for the system and $690 million for the missiles.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state a Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine has been substantially damaged or destroyed by Russia. At least [one of the six major components](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297#:~:text=PATRIOT%20System%20Costs&text=According%20to%20a%20December%2016,%24690%20million%20for%20the%20missiles.) of a Patriot battery in Ukraine must be destroyed:\n\n1. The power plant (two vehicle-mounted 150 KW generators)\n2. The radar set\n\n> The Radar Set provides detection and tracking of targets as well as fire control. The phased array radar helps guide interceptors to their targets and is resistant to jamming.\n\n3. The engagement control station\n> The Engagement Control Station calculates trajectories for interceptors and controls the launching sequence. It communicates with the launcher stations and other PATRIOT batteries. It is the only manned station in a PATRIOT fire unit.\n\n4. The launcher stations\n>The Launcher Stations transport and protect the interceptor missiles and provide the platform for the physical launch of the missile. Each launcher station can accommodate four PAC-2 missiles or 16 PAC-3 missiles.\n\n5. The antenna mast group\n> The Antenna Mast Group is the main communications backbone for the PATRIOT unit.\n\n6. The interceptor systems\n> The Interceptor Missiles: PAC-2 is a proximity fusing missile, which explodes near an incoming missile, PAC-3 has been specifically designed to intercept and destroy missiles by impacting them directly with kinetic energy- known as “hit to kill.”\n\nThe question will also resolve **Yes** if any of these systems, or the battery as a whole, is reported to be \"substantially damaged\" or equivalent. To be considered substantially damaged, reports must indicate that the battery has been rendered inoperable or ineffective, pending repairs.", "fine_print": "Interceptor missiles destroyed when fired by Ukrainian forces will not be sufficient to resolve this question.\n\nIf a Patriot system destroys itself, for example due to misfunction, the question will not resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf a Patriot system is sabotaged and the acting party is unknown but assumed to be Russian-aligned forces by credible reports, the question will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17090, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144879.505365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144879.505365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029354351671862795 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.226169408025363, 8.806148113108653, 0.8416419871180187, 1.0992091572432492, 0.5882857578542025, 0.5951589538346913, 1.2110208030071004, 0.0, 0.6079448126190974, 0.32287864091749907, 0.18144214275619108, 0.005013454196939874, 0.0006459470066485329, 0.019741963540957697, 0.0, 0.10990945149377047, 0.0015553090748629881, 0.0, 0.04902032594367584, 0.0027755757173471216, 0.0842207820082643, 0.0, 0.013627981441353396, 0.006710193312118844, 0.0, 0.03361267117754697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006897971102244721, 0.01806628565179133, 0.0, 0.0289197627306021, 0.008079667438195534, 0.021059126972739747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15420377024260856, 0.02039417611286089, 0.007618663647911763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008845328803183903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023508238122155346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010555929970589165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016243512157325297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.492323310654271, "coverage": 0.9999469404885786, "baseline_score": 72.13899534020955, "spot_peer_score": -0.6675467993133792, "peer_archived_score": 15.492323310654271, "baseline_archived_score": 72.13899534020955, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.6675467993133792 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144879.52832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144879.52832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine) missile towards a [Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64231654). \n\nUkraine has [at least two](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html) such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany.\n\n> The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time.\n\n[Ukraine said](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/06/1174505616/ukraine-patriot-defense-russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal) the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery.\n\nAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 billion, including $400 million for the system and $690 million for the missiles." }, { "id": 16792, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by December 2023", "url_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by December 2023", "slug": "ukraine-controls-znpp-by-december-2023", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-09T20:28:53.166264Z", "published_at": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.757319Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16792, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-09T20:28:53.166264Z", "open_time": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T20:25:17.778253Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T20:25:17.778253Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. \n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'yes' if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Ukrainian forces are in physical control over the ZNPP, on or before December 31, 2023, and maintain that control for at least seven consecutive days. Otherwise, the question will resolve as 'no.' If control is maintained for seven consecutive days, the question will resolve as \"yes,\" regardless of whether control changes again after that date.", "fine_print": "The presence, or invitation, of IAEA personnel, UN observers or peacekeepers, Russian military or civilian personnel, or any other parties, or the striking of any deals between Russia and Ukraine, will not be sufficient to resolve as 'yes', unless Ukraine is reported to be in physical control of the site on or before the expiry date.\n\nThe international status, operational status, or any accidents or incidents at the ZNPP, do not by themselves affect the resolution outcome.", "post_id": 16792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075975.114855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075975.114855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023772677893738933 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.562619269275617, 7.882566023142826, 0.7044783531280141, 0.9872982154318453, 0.0, 0.3470438228906677, 0.06562455790599403, 0.2448261946336436, 0.016729933915469394, 0.08917260264186336, 0.061615800724096864, 0.012286551676066843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19672145490508916, 0.0, 0.148452899856733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015320254314408236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03914468908841351, 0.0, 0.042098376819922026, 0.18854470156520242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052262152668052314, 0.0, 9.055150687721309e-05, 0.00320753435115021, 0.16871685475903522, 0.0009283071419673167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004373014579243026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015508503843127887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006068793783218393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04770783938512042, 0.0022121174038466965, 0.0, 0.025920075805741058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000520080144308091, 0.0, 0.0012019557048390125, 0.0, 0.00630160418617905, 0.0, 0.002953318548499343, 0.00025498252310941446, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.00044217479300900296, 0.0, 0.00404204164753056, 0.00037246101996206123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039753087057917014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017209026122773732, 0.0019272342406730534, 0.014450027362402536 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 39.12248385375512, "coverage": 0.9999806594886118, "baseline_score": 47.54754136108863, "spot_peer_score": 58.764968014883536, "peer_archived_score": 39.12248385375512, "baseline_archived_score": 47.54754136108863, "spot_peer_archived_score": 58.764968014883536 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704094943.282594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704094943.282594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 356, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. \n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed." }, { "id": 16787, "title": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "short_title": "Trump vs Biden in 2024?", "url_title": "Trump vs Biden in 2024?", "slug": "trump-vs-biden-in-2024", "author_id": 115957, "author_username": "chinmaythemathguy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-08T18:27:22.252603Z", "published_at": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.402890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 149, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16787, "title": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "created_at": "2023-05-08T18:27:22.252603Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T23:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T23:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:13:00.699567Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in either order, are the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The question resolves based on the votes as counted by Congress and entered into the Congressional record.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16787, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728387989.835422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728387989.835422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011049970014986216 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.635294289007145, 3.836873567785119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1398078871473414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014577571538750897, 0.0, 0.00021692577032311923, 0.0, 0.0025025365755661855, 0.0, 0.001245398791939104, 0.0, 2.9430639894362352e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015104301101921427, 0.0004070290020078907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005670237881128052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005159784951881919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1417301136969922e-05, 0.0029060231712994874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032643623487589413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042649657519376865, 4.871823887525395e-05, 0.0006985208185699059, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0308631743741425e-05, 0.0004192174788592985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021006151247507945, 0.0004558306925796872, 0.004942566935367143, 0.0010343082445553027, 0.0032530720714019565, 0.0009402425934204333, 8.809472201414948e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007791405061897842, 0.008458026259184463, 0.0019315252996501865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01305106694939209, 0.0, 0.015891166023790974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006130633140952651, 0.0, 0.01552156299904583, 0.02791892521581489, 0.061503193597553685 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -124.0372056237046, "peer_score": -2.986235657767776, "coverage": 0.9999724893850319, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999724893850319, "spot_peer_score": 9.163457323777935, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": -124.0372056237046, "peer_archived_score": -2.986235657767776, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.163457323777935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289423.79697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289423.79697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 473, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024." }, { "id": 16762, "title": "Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?", "short_title": "2023 housing market collapse", "url_title": "2023 housing market collapse", "slug": "2023-housing-market-collapse", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-06T23:40:42.894510Z", "published_at": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.204729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16762, "title": "Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-06T23:40:42.894510Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-02T22:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-02T22:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis). \n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096\" alt=\"Case Schiller Drop in 2008\" />\n\n\nHome prices increased by [double digits](https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/when-will-the-housing-market-crash#:~:text=Are%20we%20in%20a%20housing%20bubble%20right%20now%3F,housing%20bubble%20burst%20in%202023.) during the Covid pandemic years until mid 2022. Since then it has declined. While some economists [predict](https://www.yahoo.com/now/economist-predicted-2008-housing-crash-204218890.html#:~:text=Citing%20the%20large%20disparity%20between,fall%20another%2015%25%20in%202023.&text=Shepherdson%2C%20the%20founder%20and%20chief,crash%20of%202008%20in%202005.) a 15-20% \"crash\" into early next year, many others do not agree but see [smaller decreases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/economist-who-foresaw-housing-crunch-sees-home-prices-dropping#xj4y7vzkg) in value.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a \"crash\" is defined as drop of greater than or equal to 15% in the [national Case–Shiller home price index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index). \n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if the [national version of this index](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/#overview) is below 249.20 for any month in 2023, which would be a more than 15% drop relative to the February 2023 value of 293.17.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703635632.20703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703635632.20703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019850603677850902 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.379776521175504, 3.469778210190722, 0.1011216878911307, 0.2664292877798576, 0.1148171974242466, 0.7729533199957874, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.9791095032375927, "coverage": 0.9999159053154615, "baseline_score": 92.16039809569283, "spot_peer_score": 4.657115998676682, "peer_archived_score": 2.9791095032375927, "baseline_archived_score": 92.16039809569283, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.657115998676682 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008396.192935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008396.192935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis). \n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096\" alt=\"Case Schiller Drop in 2008\" />\n\n\nHome prices increased by [double digits](https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/when-will-the-housing-market-crash#:~:text=Are%20we%20in%20a%20housing%20bubble%20right%20now%3F,housing%20bubble%20burst%20in%202023.) during the Covid pandemic years until mid 2022. Since then it has declined. While some economists [predict](https://www.yahoo.com/now/economist-predicted-2008-housing-crash-204218890.html#:~:text=Citing%20the%20large%20disparity%20between,fall%20another%2015%25%20in%202023.&text=Shepherdson%2C%20the%20founder%20and%20chief,crash%20of%202008%20in%202005.) a 15-20% \"crash\" into early next year, many others do not agree but see [smaller decreases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/economist-who-foresaw-housing-crunch-sees-home-prices-dropping#xj4y7vzkg) in value." }, { "id": 16743, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before June 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before June 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100345, "username": "EvanHarper" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-05T17:48:54.222022Z", "published_at": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.135880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 230, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16743, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-05T17:48:54.222022Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-08T17:44:25.006193Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-08T17:44:25.006193Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [incremental gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [allegedly](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) falling to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. The same day, Ukraine [accused Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65506993) of using phosphorus bombs in the battle.", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on May 31, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukranian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nThe question will resolve **Ambiguous** if the administrative building is in the \"Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\" category.\n\nForecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".", "fine_print": "Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 16743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685566382.311677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685566382.311677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021300985243766737 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.348157682900302, 13.304348880626025, 0.20191174159907574, 0.1114742203228996, 0.3544403578425763, 0.43662868969006435, 0.1765038911555955, 0.34785747039000137, 0.6297517060317688, 0.0, 0.0005613413928317892, 0.0, 0.006306048985943911, 0.040458029736638264, 0.001678851851150416, 0.0018237375145603266, 5.261605795026018e-05, 0.0, 0.00040271491239937744, 9.538258726042813e-06, 0.0006946830699551857, 0.35929364780839357, 0.0, 0.004907978727922435, 0.0, 0.027605089374687336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.653865010836196e-05, 1.0928969944641897e-05, 4.2357294506381794e-05, 0.0, 0.27991693663875905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009882848057102987, 0.0, 7.144797433795738e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009374918675864001, 5.1483547571058654e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007256106694851587, 0.0, 0.00028422315022594936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015647306824719177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6004425783823317e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003761054511070602, 0.0, 0.18730568364124542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.78652439711276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.348646551020149, "coverage": 0.999943384808089, "baseline_score": 85.66060482937739, "spot_peer_score": 8.703228810202623, "peer_archived_score": 8.348646551020149, "baseline_archived_score": 85.66060482937739, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.703228810202623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685566382.333575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685566382.333575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 766, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [incremental gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [allegedly](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) falling to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. The same day, Ukraine [accused Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65506993) of using phosphorus bombs in the battle." }, { "id": 16741, "title": "Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?", "short_title": "Trump Sexual Assault Case", "url_title": "Trump Sexual Assault Case", "slug": "trump-sexual-assault-case", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 144313, "username": "tburr" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-05T02:41:07.236133Z", "published_at": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.089807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16741, "title": "Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?", "created_at": "2023-05-05T02:41:07.236133Z", "open_time": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-08T00:42:23.308469Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-08T00:42:23.308469Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll [first spoke](https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donald-trump-assault-e-jean-carroll-other-hideous-men.html) about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.\n\nIn 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's [Adult Survivors Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adult_Survivors_Act), which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a [second lawsuit](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-rape-sexual-assault-lawsuit-e-jean-carroll-new-york/) against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings [began on April 25, 2023](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/donald-trump-civil-rape-trial-begins), and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.\n\nFor Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the jury in the lawsuit between E. Jean Carroll and Donald Trump delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiff. The question will also resolve as **Yes** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump agrees to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages and/or issues a retraction of his denial. \n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Donald Trump. The question will also resolve as **No** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump does not agree to pay the plaintiff at least a portion of the claimed damages or issue a retraction of his previous denial.\n\nIn the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as \"ambiguous.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683661612.196053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683661612.196053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7747732637969355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12891140607481918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025360596869753158, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.16594419818162792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30199423264781133, 0.0, 0.4385723433247139, 0.6078787105428978, 0.0, 0.06032709531608127, 0.811416550324366, 0.8705052744070133, 0.12443678207034711, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.10227296739520486, 0.009712334743922024, 0.18044206424386386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9487865084827019, 0.0, 0.09244601710264838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.720942875033639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 0.0, 1.5761926414269367, 0.0, 0.23476788075709235, 0.013841141009878904, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0376241220922931, 1.0833878600122757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8113610949475989, 0.0, 0.0, 2.59910476005078 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.061138260203379, "coverage": 0.4393767776770191, "baseline_score": 20.255657924376823, "spot_peer_score": 76.54566603286509, "peer_archived_score": 15.061138260203379, "baseline_archived_score": 20.255657924376823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 76.54566603286509 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683660461.268765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683660461.268765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2913544465135576, 0.7086455534864424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll [first spoke](https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donald-trump-assault-e-jean-carroll-other-hideous-men.html) about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.\n\nIn 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's [Adult Survivors Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adult_Survivors_Act), which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a [second lawsuit](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-rape-sexual-assault-lawsuit-e-jean-carroll-new-york/) against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings [began on April 25, 2023](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/donald-trump-civil-rape-trial-begins), and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.\n\nFor Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. 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One of the points agreed upon was the reclassification of marriage as \" a union between two consenting adults\" . This naturally brings up the question, will Estonia's parliament actually legalize marriage between non-hetero people and also manage to do so in 2023?\n\nRelevant info:\nPolitico article about this (english): https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-kaja-kallas-government-coalition-agreement/\n\nCoalition agreement (estonian): https://www.err.ee/1608941486/loodav-voimuliit-avalikustas-koalitsioonileppe", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as a \"yes\" when a bill legalizing gay marriage has passed the Estonian parliament before 1. January 2024. \nMost official way to track this is via https://www.riigikogu.ee/tegevus/eelnoud/ that shows all legislation that the parliament is currently discussing and has passed previously. 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The strike was prompted by streaming platforms shortening TV seasons and hiring fewer writers for briefer stints, and the shift to new models of consumption (like streaming)." }, { "id": 16723, "title": "Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?", "short_title": "Ed Sheeran Liable for Copyright Infringement", "url_title": "Ed Sheeran Liable for Copyright Infringement", "slug": "ed-sheeran-liable-for-copyright-infringement", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-03T16:58:39.740501Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.402200Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16723, "title": "Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?", "created_at": "2023-05-03T16:58:39.740501Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T01:31:05.595597Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T01:31:05.595597Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with \"[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song)),\" which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician Ed Sheeran released his widely popular romantic ballad \"Thinking Out Loud,\" garnering similar chart-topping achievements in both Europe and the United States.\n\nControversy arose when the heirs of Ed Townsend, Gaye's co-writer, [filed a lawsuit](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/ed-sheeran-copyright-trial-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html) against Ed Sheeran, alleging that aspects of his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" copied parts of \"Let's Get It On,\" thus violating the heirs' copyright. They are seeking $100 million in damages. Sheeran has denied these allegations, arguing that any similarities between the songs result from the ubiquity of certain chords and chord progressions in pop music.\n\nThe outcome of this lawsuit could potentially impact the music industry and the way musicians approach the creation of new music inspired by older works.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as \"yes\" if the jury in the copyright lawsuit between the heirs of Ed Townsend, the co-writer of Marvin Gaye's \"Let's Get It On,\" and Ed Sheeran for his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as \"yes\" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"no\" if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Ed Sheeran, finding that no copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as \"no\" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives do not agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages.\n\nIn the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as \"ambiguous.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683222417.888627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683222417.888627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.14189590087133264 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.650350915250193, 1.9914982628907192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18264215333895617, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8701864252891901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.6140996417412627, "coverage": 0.10915327098366034, "baseline_score": 6.435987929618173, "spot_peer_score": 24.170426850087395, "peer_archived_score": 1.6140996417412627, "baseline_archived_score": 6.435987929618173, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.170426850087395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683220034.49165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683220034.49165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8832986223351458, 0.1167013776648542 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with \"[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song)),\" which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician Ed Sheeran released his widely popular romantic ballad \"Thinking Out Loud,\" garnering similar chart-topping achievements in both Europe and the United States.\n\nControversy arose when the heirs of Ed Townsend, Gaye's co-writer, [filed a lawsuit](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/ed-sheeran-copyright-trial-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html) against Ed Sheeran, alleging that aspects of his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" copied parts of \"Let's Get It On,\" thus violating the heirs' copyright. They are seeking $100 million in damages. Sheeran has denied these allegations, arguing that any similarities between the songs result from the ubiquity of certain chords and chord progressions in pop music.\n\nThe outcome of this lawsuit could potentially impact the music industry and the way musicians approach the creation of new music inspired by older works." }, { "id": 16720, "title": "Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?", "short_title": "Chinese Decree 770 Before 2051?", "url_title": "Chinese Decree 770 Before 2051?", "slug": "chinese-decree-770-before-2051", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-03T00:20:49.541552Z", "published_at": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:46:40.642639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16720, "title": "Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?", "created_at": "2023-05-03T00:20:49.541552Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-19T06:50:55.139630Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-19T06:50:55.139630Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18383/chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the [Socialist Republic of Romania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Republic_of_Romania) issued [Decree 770](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770) in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR [remaining above 2](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ROU/romania/fertility-rate) until the decree was abolished following the [Romanian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution) in 1989.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2051, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Chinese government has banned abortion and contraception in almost all cases.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question China will be considered to have banned abortion and contraception in almost all cases if reports indicate that abortion and contraception are only permitted if the life of the mother is in danger or for those who can show a high likelihood of passing on a genetic defect to their offspring.\n* If China no longer exists or has no successor at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to China's legitimacy, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of China on August 9, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory.", "post_id": 16720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472390.198836, "end_time": 1778759134.470815, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472390.198836, "end_time": 1778759134.470815, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12643258274506872 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05707051708373777, 0.9548239045956517, 0.5857576454913802, 0.0, 0.19462653881470354, 3.4028248463730755, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.06327492015001017, 0.012311991125938967, 2.718869509401328, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.627850362283306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6167799948460655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.159228013413647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289669.290582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289669.290582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9636723939024321, 0.03632760609756794 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18383/chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the [Socialist Republic of Romania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Republic_of_Romania) issued [Decree 770](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770) in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR [remaining above 2](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ROU/romania/fertility-rate) until the decree was abolished following the [Romanian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution) in 1989." }, { "id": 16718, "title": "Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?", "short_title": "AI Time Person of the Year in 2023", "url_title": "AI Time Person of the Year in 2023", "slug": "ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023", "author_id": 114070, "author_username": "Trunton", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-02T06:58:50.002239Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.735486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16718, "title": "Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-02T06:58:50.002239Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-07T11:45:18.918680Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-07T11:45:18.918680Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who \"for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year.\" While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically [\"The Computer\" in 1982](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/) and [\"Endangered Earth\" in 1988](https://time.com/vault/issue/1989-01-02/page/1/).\n\n\nSince the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, [Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz), and [ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.](https://time.com/vault/year/2023/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Time announces that its choice for a Time Person of the Year in 2023 is AI. Both generic terms for AI, such as \"Large Language Models\" and \"Generative AI\", and specific AI systems, such as \"ChatGPT\" and \"GPT-4\", count toward a positive resolution.\n\nSince AI is not a person, it may not be called \"Person of the Year\", but something like \"Machine of the Year\", [as Time did after its 1982 choice was \"The Computer\"](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/). In this case, this question resolves positively if a Metaculus Admin(s) can reasonably determine that the choice is continuous with what Time has chosen since 1927.\n\nIf the “Person of the Year” named includes an AI and a person or group of people, such as “GPT-4 and Sam Altman,” or “Open AI and ChatGPT,” in any order, this question will still resolve positive.\n\nIf Time does not announce a Person of the Year for 2023 at all before April 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16718, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701384141.536397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701384141.536397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36318236054189423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.029004331645311406, 1.0808802607034225, 9.709338367232937e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22652470105660855, 0.0, 0.045914635170381406, 0.0, 0.019522963141105708, 0.3067006767502997, 0.0002432575786975352, 0.0, 0.9194414664940578, 0.0, 0.2820396541820055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21069618228825818, 2.3624023481929372e-05, 0.7867973420414855, 0.9653114280163154, 1.0025014659115368, 0.08893153115736602, 5.583954987620208e-05, 0.5237069466776173, 0.7166693760094534, 0.8427202727549202, 0.09072634696300813, 0.0, 2.027032638746369, 0.32863062993144104, 0.03644818730175165, 2.6564677822397718, 0.00032370794674281534, 1.4935011616212628, 0.0010867471651132465, 0.5604935200749575, 0.8220028724103063, 0.6222812584765807, 1.4770068562487337, 0.0233553539003043, 1.2349942914796659, 0.0013341373703413264, 0.0, 1.55201452914357, 0.10143584765337355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024932367630184762, 1.6209987792295633, 2.9529595148076767e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0261641793987444, 0.6067434301516297, 0.0007078071669076385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1880707129386824, 0.0, 0.007669395673034807, 0.016809779034163898, 0.0021087477868632033, 0.21318734840898443, 0.34505714638976637, 0.19671580586549667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.522415947009629, 0.7692080967595568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46975540502310686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005495047860758355, 0.0, 0.4811702352905574, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5634608306554246e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.844654248053318e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.858351283326629e-05, 5.928917857955002e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.44960530384194, "coverage": 0.9998283227567212, "baseline_score": 41.095263705742255, "spot_peer_score": -24.79809985494631, "peer_archived_score": 14.44960530384194, "baseline_archived_score": 41.095263705742255, "spot_peer_archived_score": -24.79809985494631 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701384141.590582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701384141.590582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7488069068742227, 0.25119309312577726 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who \"for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year.\" While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically [\"The Computer\" in 1982](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/) and [\"Endangered Earth\" in 1988](https://time.com/vault/issue/1989-01-02/page/1/).\n\n\nSince the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, [Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz), and [ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.](https://time.com/vault/year/2023/)" }, { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "short_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "url_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "slug": "spacex-launch-vs-non-launch-revenue", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.333315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T09:40:01.501371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved using official SpaceX income statements, if available. Any yearly statement, whether fiscal year or calendar year, that shows non-launch revenue exceeding launch revenue will be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIn the absence of official income statements from SpaceX which provide a breakdown of launch and non-launch revenue, or if only partial data is available, the latest [Payload Space](https://payloadspace.com/news/) estimates as of March 31, 2024 for 2023, and March 31, 2025 for 2024, will be used for resolution.\n\nIf Payload Space does not release any estimate beyond the February 2023 estimate, then the revenue per item for different types of launches and Starlink services used in the [Payload Space's February 2023 SpaceX revenue estimate](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) will be applied to the most recent current SpaceX data. The counts of [Starlink subscribers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) by type and the number of [launches by type](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) will be obtained from Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6447043047405404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43912522264278236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9592638368914898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.570987564786579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3792911289495212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.877086590409491 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_score": 5.977945476810628, "coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "spot_peer_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_archived_score": 5.977945476810628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2481678517117727, 0.7518321482882273 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources" } ] }
