Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3680
{ "count": 6375, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3660", "results": [ { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "short_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "url_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "slug": "spacex-launch-vs-non-launch-revenue", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.333315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T09:40:01.501371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved using official SpaceX income statements, if available. Any yearly statement, whether fiscal year or calendar year, that shows non-launch revenue exceeding launch revenue will be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIn the absence of official income statements from SpaceX which provide a breakdown of launch and non-launch revenue, or if only partial data is available, the latest [Payload Space](https://payloadspace.com/news/) estimates as of March 31, 2024 for 2023, and March 31, 2025 for 2024, will be used for resolution.\n\nIf Payload Space does not release any estimate beyond the February 2023 estimate, then the revenue per item for different types of launches and Starlink services used in the [Payload Space's February 2023 SpaceX revenue estimate](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) will be applied to the most recent current SpaceX data. The counts of [Starlink subscribers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) by type and the number of [launches by type](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) will be obtained from Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6447043047405404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43912522264278236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9592638368914898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.570987564786579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3792911289495212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.877086590409491 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_score": 5.977945476810628, "coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "spot_peer_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_archived_score": 5.977945476810628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2481678517117727, 0.7518321482882273 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources" }, { "id": 16704, "title": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "short_title": "US-China Military Conflict in 2024?", "url_title": "US-China Military Conflict in 2024?", "slug": "us-china-military-conflict-in-2024", "author_id": 121476, "author_username": "d0g", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-01T00:35:28.303693Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.018197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16704, "title": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-01T00:35:28.303693Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-06T12:15:54.669842Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-06T12:15:54.669842Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:47.987859Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** based on two credible reports confirming that a military conflict involving direct engagement between the United States and China has occurred at any location during 2024 (from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, both dates inclusive), resulting in at least 50 total deaths.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735695427.232941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735695427.232941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00730223756857595 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.171894287109657, 4.171306245726607, 0.5264168657636459, 0.14267401190121784, 0.11769900774096624, 0.0004466182328135157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022698410746859857, 0.0, 0.11173148889667735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001315880072289434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10371341395699357, 0.0, 0.0011276756507707527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0311439998759112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006727592223594752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963403728513482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009587555935714907 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.05054705340264, "peer_score": 11.639037632441106, "coverage": 0.9999721637300439, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999721637300439, "spot_peer_score": 23.351502541771332, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 99.05054705340264, "peer_archived_score": 11.639037632441106, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.351502541771332, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287875.223828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287875.223828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024." }, { "id": 16668, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?", "short_title": "Navalny Release Before 2033?", "url_title": "Navalny Release Before 2033?", "slug": "navalny-release-before-2033", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-30T09:08:57.143522Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.832979Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16668, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-30T09:08:57.143522Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-06T23:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-06T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In [August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt](https://ge.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2020-attack-on-aleksey-navalny/) and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was [arrested and imprisoned.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia) \n\nIn [April 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-imposes-unspecified-restrictions-navalny-network-2021-04-27/), the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in [June 2021](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/06/russia-aleksei-navalnys-ngos-banned-as-extremist-depriving-thousands-of-their-rights/#:~:text=On%20the%20evening%20of%209,Foundation%20and%20%E2%80%9CNavalny's%20headquarters%E2%80%9D).\n\nNavalny faced [additional charges in February 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud), including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the [maximum-security prison](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/alexei-navalny-has-gone-missing-from-russian-prison-say-allies).\n\nAs of early 2023, [Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony]( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-navalny-faces-new-charges-after-prison-provocation-lawyer-2023-04-18/) suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:\n\n> Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an \"absurd\" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** If Alexei Navalny is released from prison prior to 2033 based on credible sources. \n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Navalny dies before 2033. \n\nIf Navalny is still in prison on January 1, 2033, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In order for a release to count, it cannot be a short-term release, for example for the purposes of medical treatment. It has to be a full discharge from prison. Changes in prisons do not impact this question.", "post_id": 16668, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708099622.080849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708099622.080849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1161056873819901 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.4850223472201876, 6.06410079108474, 0.0, 0.526247751814955, 0.37021219136041794, 0.09085472223259321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.14915465681439566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29220449018970057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.08590742488968683, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46280702382059447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4191974676345277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2701166745210048, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04312588980096745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26520683406430967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1378885332432498, 0.010384267010212575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016699727217022405, 0.012081759267939115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00908979551917782, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701716540950928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19273628803510778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7517360712083688 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708099622.118609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708099622.118609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9373481693982789, 0.06265183060172108 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In [August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt](https://ge.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2020-attack-on-aleksey-navalny/) and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was [arrested and imprisoned.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia) \n\nIn [April 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-imposes-unspecified-restrictions-navalny-network-2021-04-27/), the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in [June 2021](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/06/russia-aleksei-navalnys-ngos-banned-as-extremist-depriving-thousands-of-their-rights/#:~:text=On%20the%20evening%20of%209,Foundation%20and%20%E2%80%9CNavalny's%20headquarters%E2%80%9D).\n\nNavalny faced [additional charges in February 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud), including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the [maximum-security prison](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/alexei-navalny-has-gone-missing-from-russian-prison-say-allies).\n\nAs of early 2023, [Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony]( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-navalny-faces-new-charges-after-prison-provocation-lawyer-2023-04-18/) suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:\n\n> Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an \"absurd\" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail." }, { "id": 16663, "title": "Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?", "short_title": "Italy's Credit Rating Becomes Junk", "url_title": "Italy's Credit Rating Becomes Junk", "slug": "italys-credit-rating-becomes-junk", "author_id": 139161, "author_username": "Zaldath", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-30T01:04:10.834501Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.036342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16663, "title": "Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-30T01:04:10.834501Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Moody’s Investors Service lowers Italy’s credit rating in its next credit assessment of the country, which is scheduled for May 19, 2023. If the credit assessment does not take place, the question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1684443307.744138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1684443307.744138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10456851981254003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6454430936411023, 1.3821195650744464, 0.09249024938796033, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5297188877790906, 0.4786067736705382, 0.806208236854164, 0.9696440728731098, 0.0, 0.9789012691545156, 0.3426424443372215, 0.8881248880778903, 0.3722069427882975, 0.2893506753269389, 1.1499430169994183, 0.2223942771812562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027134041465974392, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16871148880955214, 0.43513025900946883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2121734730732175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19398274424139245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.00304170949301, "coverage": 0.9977111977564177, "baseline_score": 40.4698212834206, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 23.00304170949301, "baseline_archived_score": 40.4698212834206, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1684443307.759667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1684443307.759667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9843203153334134, 0.015679684666586608 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago." }, { "id": 16642, "title": "Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?", "short_title": "Sweden's Loreen to win Eurovision 2023?", "url_title": "Sweden's Loreen to win Eurovision 2023?", "slug": "swedens-loreen-to-win-eurovision-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T20:02:32.320490Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.140392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16642, "title": "Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T20:02:32.320490Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T21:18:43.316209Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T21:18:43.316209Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.\n\nThe final stages of the [2023 edition of the contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2023) will take place in the United Kingdom in May 2023. Semi-finals will be held on May 9 and 11, and the grand final scheduled to be held on May 13.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the artist [Loreen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loreen_(singer)), representing Sweden in the contest with the song [Tattoo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3vJfR81xO0&ab_channel=EurovisionSongContest), is announced by the EBU or ESC as the official winner of the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest prior to May 20, 2023. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur for any reason, including if the contest is cancelled or delayed beyond May 20, 2023, or if Loreen does not represent Sweden in the contest. The question will resolve as **Yes** if Loreen is officially announced as the winner, and will not re-resolve negatively if the win is later rescinded, withdrawn, or otherwise annulled for any reason.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683970863.650693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.647 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683970863.650693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.647 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.353, 0.647 ], "means": [ 0.5697699914751277 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07812629904496614, 0.6788062773671363, 0.6384633727225171, 0.03492060446249783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06356310238128624, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0279215918046365, 0.0, 0.09559842707851815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45120860633737064, 0.6257203733096433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06449926113694789, 0.001469195406109808, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.03126931611125853, 0.13788721340005808, 0.029543207606411638, 0.04791750235716968, 0.10224333355391588, 0.5183295490595771, 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08543252822519284, 0.0, 0.4527038901044533, 0.9038140370918123, 0.9387124664479816, 1.9430063621270053, 0.5441953838753619, 0.21564328479102138, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.6875011645777711, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.0, 0.009846599194668917, 1.1386231182703468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31508149791861734, 0.11161595350970598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4837672471425741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23975409754196203 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 38.08028954247233, "coverage": 0.9993836932798114, "baseline_score": 5.938008162656247, "spot_peer_score": -5.283571667457047, "peer_archived_score": 38.08028954247233, "baseline_archived_score": 5.938008162656247, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.283571667457047 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683970863.67711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683970863.67711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41425823271596973, 0.5857417672840303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.\n\nThe final stages of the [2023 edition of the contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2023) will take place in the United Kingdom in May 2023. Semi-finals will be held on May 9 and 11, and the grand final scheduled to be held on May 13." }, { "id": 16641, "title": "Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "US Financial Crisis before July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "US Financial Crisis before July 1, 2023?", "slug": "us-financial-crisis-before-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T18:04:54.725809Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.967946Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16641, "title": "Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T18:04:54.725809Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T20:58:53.724511Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T20:58:53.724511Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nSince then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued [challenges](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/first-republic-plunges-anew-amid-elusive-search-for-rescue-plan?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall) in the [banking system](https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/20/23648853/credit-suisse-ubs-silicon-valley-signature-banking-crisis) and [concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e) about the risks posed by [Non-Bank Financial Institutions](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/04/nonbank-financial-sector-vulnerabilities-surface-as-financial-conditions-tighten#:~:text=Nonbank%20financial%20intermediaries%2C%20including%20pension,and%20thus%20supporting%20economic%20growth.), also known as \"[shadow banks](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/)\". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently [told](https://www.ft.com/content/a101d2c1-13b7-4a20-9e8e-38fb1d54723d) the *Financial Times*:\n\n>We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.\n\nThe [STLFSI4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from [18 weekly data series](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/11/the-st-louis-feds-financial-stress-index-version-4/): seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators.\n\nThe average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a \"financial crisis\" is a value of the [St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. The question resolves **Yes** if the STLFSI4 value is reported to be greater than or equal to 1.75 for any date between May 1, 2023 and June 30, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135916.09042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135916.09042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011939492563379847 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.740232298625918, 3.1452602993596104, 0.020216013348589298, 0.039787084440696, 0.9282903190229019, 0.8240517858773204, 0.000149338795229685, 0.0, 4.338655240952036e-05, 0.0, 0.7726219134989395, 0.0, 0.0002249551056478572, 0.0009856045077656645, 0.0005099186258927597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08197366253810018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002141215690394542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003205856696931407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03690551338857172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004399998258568811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036025719240981866 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.32538897698703, "coverage": 0.9999841990903544, "baseline_score": 95.21524139825497, "spot_peer_score": -8.047138902551815, "peer_archived_score": 19.32538897698703, "baseline_archived_score": 95.21524139825497, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.047138902551815 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135916.116531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135916.116531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nSince then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued [challenges](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/first-republic-plunges-anew-amid-elusive-search-for-rescue-plan?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall) in the [banking system](https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/20/23648853/credit-suisse-ubs-silicon-valley-signature-banking-crisis) and [concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e) about the risks posed by [Non-Bank Financial Institutions](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/04/nonbank-financial-sector-vulnerabilities-surface-as-financial-conditions-tighten#:~:text=Nonbank%20financial%20intermediaries%2C%20including%20pension,and%20thus%20supporting%20economic%20growth.), also known as \"[shadow banks](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/)\". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently [told](https://www.ft.com/content/a101d2c1-13b7-4a20-9e8e-38fb1d54723d) the *Financial Times*:\n\n>We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.\n\nThe [STLFSI4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from [18 weekly data series](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/11/the-st-louis-feds-financial-stress-index-version-4/): seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators.\n\nThe average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress." }, { "id": 16640, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-US Frontier AI Lab before 2026", "url_title": "Non-US Frontier AI Lab before 2026", "slug": "non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:53:34.345319Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.710867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16640, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:53:34.345319Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to compute [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nCurrently all four of these AI labs have their primary headquarters in the United States and not in any other countries. (Deepmind was HQ'd in the UK until the merger with Google Brain in April 2023.)\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in the US may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in multiple countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI lab outside the before January 1, 2026.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a government project will still count as an AI company. If compute levels cannot be sufficiently established, this AI lab will not count towards resolution.\n\nIf a Frontier AI Lab is in multiple countries, it is considered first to be in the country with the location of its primary headquarters per credible media reporting and secondarily should that information be ambiguous or unavailable, the location of the plurality of employees will be used to determine the country. Should that information also not be available, we will resolve this question ambiguous.\n\nMetaculus admins may make reasonable inferences and use reasonable substitute information to resolve this question if the location of an AI lab is in dispute or if the Polity database is unavailable or if a credible research institution cannot be found.\n\nThe United States is defined as the country which has at least 50% of the de facto territory which the United States of America controls as of May 1, 2023, and the country which has its political capital city in that same territory. If such a country no longer exists before the resolution of the question, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 16640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699433344.310666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.819 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699433344.310666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.819 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8775492165885656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16871148880955214, 0.10626611084867746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17042710568856717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0743529554125065, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.6555431069223722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06321382854186766, 0.23027762603635676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1832574916580254, 0.36156577650638777, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.6956811236098437, 0.26540318263127977, 0.035814214006338115, 1.1194599047086642, 0.0, 1.0669079375835615, 1.008059671697063, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.8986984862421243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7905955164555776 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.9239887036794047, "coverage": 0.13322890696751383, "baseline_score": 7.314742670308011, "spot_peer_score": 10.418977868173071, "peer_archived_score": 0.9239887036794047, "baseline_archived_score": 7.314742670308011, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.418977868173071 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693900248.782352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693900248.782352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15069676072165628, 0.8493032392783437 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to compute [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nCurrently all four of these AI labs have their primary headquarters in the United States and not in any other countries. (Deepmind was HQ'd in the UK until the merger with Google Brain in April 2023.)\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in the US may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in multiple countries." }, { "id": 16639, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-Democratic Frontier AI Lab before 2026?", "url_title": "Non-Democratic Frontier AI Lab before 2026?", "slug": "non-democratic-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:51:39.037392Z", "published_at": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.519285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16639, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:51:39.037392Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [[source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0)] Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in democracies which may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in non-democracies. Will this convenient status quo hold?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI Lab in a non-democratic country before January 1, 2026.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a government project will still count as an AI company. If compute levels cannot be sufficiently established, this AI lab will not count towards resolution.\n\n\"Democracy\" is defined as a country with a [V-Dem \"Electoral democracy\" score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/V-Dem_Democracy_indices#Rankings) of >= 0.4 using whatever data is most recent.\n\nIf a Frontier AI Lab is in multiple countries, it is considered first to be in the country with the location of its primary headquarters per credible media reporting and secondarily should that information be ambiguous or unavailable, the location of the plurality of employees will be used to determine the country. Should that information also not be available, we will resolve this question ambiguous.\n\nMetaculus admins may make reasonable inferences and use reasonable substitute information to resolve this question if the location of an AI lab is in dispute, if the V-Dem database is unavailable, or if a credible research institution cannot be found.", "post_id": 16639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699350455.405135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699350455.405135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8392200378849939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.18044206424386386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511238759100559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12126976048279545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033136279379270196, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.0376241220922931, 0.09244601710264838, 0.16947836752116327, 0.0833857067693185, 0.0, 0.38459879885134624, 0.0, 0.5205266298768673, 0.1368859382907578, 0.11291834007793779, 0.12443678207034711, 0.0, 0.35182353063490523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.8656475924460829, 1.0104107786102972, 0.0, 0.32768716652500174, 0.0, 0.6078787105428978, 0.2636100582718002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 1.2256919109624087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6541259978097677, 0.0, 0.5236874151830103, 0.0, 3.950487317077377 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1655850112677673, "coverage": 0.13036075002109498, "baseline_score": 3.8640920455006, "spot_peer_score": -38.43668246507264, "peer_archived_score": 2.1655850112677673, "baseline_archived_score": 3.8640920455006, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.43668246507264 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693899907.978017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693899907.978017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.29260002638632543, 0.7073999736136746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [[source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0)] Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in democracies which may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in non-democracies. Will this convenient status quo hold?" }, { "id": 16638, "title": "Will \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" be mentioned in the UK Parliament in reference to Artificial Intelligence before 2031?", "short_title": "DMDU Applied to AI in Parliament by 2031?", "url_title": "DMDU Applied to AI in Parliament by 2031?", "slug": "dmdu-applied-to-ai-in-parliament-by-2031", "author_id": 143266, "author_username": "Will.Pearson ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T13:08:11.232299Z", "published_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T01:19:20.252512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:05:10.218179Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16638, "title": "Will \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" be mentioned in the UK Parliament in reference to Artificial Intelligence before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T13:08:11.232299Z", "open_time": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-17T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-17T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[\"Decision making under deep uncertainty\"](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2) (DMDU) is a set of [methods and tools](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/) to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive strategies designed to [perform well across a wide array of potential future scenarios](https://toolkit.climate.gov/content/decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty). \n\nDMDU could be applicable when considering how strategies to mitigate AI risk could perform under a range of plausible future conditions. It would be particularly interesting if a government were to intentionally apply DMDU in planning for AI scenarios. Yet to date, there is no mention of DMDU in the UK parliamentary record.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" is entered into the UK Hansard, the official report of all parliamentary debates in the United Kingdom, in the context of a discussion about Artificial Intelligence for the period of May 9, 2023 through December 30, 2030. Here is the [relevant search term]( https://hansard.parliament.uk/search?searchTerm=%22decision%20making%20under%20deep%20uncertainty%22&partial=False&sortOrder=1) The question resolves **Yes** for any reference, written statement, written answer, petition, or other mention of \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" in the context of AI.", "fine_print": "- If the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" appears, but not in the context of artificial intelligence (e.g., in the context of climate change), that is not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\n- If the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" appears, but it is not clear if it is in the context of artificial intelligence, then the question resolves as **Ambiguous.**\n\n- Only the exact phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" or the acronym DMDU are sufficient for a **Yes** resolution. Closely-related phrases such as \"decision making under uncertainty\" that are not explicitly referencing DMDU are not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 16638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761060744.735099, "end_time": 1765616634.708693, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761060744.735099, "end_time": 1765616634.708693, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44203168403874593 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1117671362091623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288802.430759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288802.430759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7556596565147458, 0.2443403434852543 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[\"Decision making under deep uncertainty\"](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2) (DMDU) is a set of [methods and tools](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/) to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive strategies designed to [perform well across a wide array of potential future scenarios](https://toolkit.climate.gov/content/decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty). \n\nDMDU could be applicable when considering how strategies to mitigate AI risk could perform under a range of plausible future conditions. It would be particularly interesting if a government were to intentionally apply DMDU in planning for AI scenarios. Yet to date, there is no mention of DMDU in the UK parliamentary record." }, { "id": 16619, "title": "Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?", "short_title": "2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks?", "url_title": "2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks?", "slug": "2023-world-chess-championship-tiebreaks", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-27T13:25:48.781503Z", "published_at": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.991831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16619, "title": "Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?", "created_at": "2023-04-27T13:25:48.781503Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-27T17:46:20.723900Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-27T17:46:20.723900Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required. \n\nAfter 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on April 30, 2023 if needed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any tiebreak games are played before May 1, 2023, otherwise it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682757014.651591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682757014.651591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49257715770960375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2958909009490689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.249400422204275, 1.5968161256987008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 2.2472273754648406, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 53.82872888201718, "coverage": 0.9947169528105271, "baseline_score": -0.3540279912366223, "spot_peer_score": 46.175394906295395, "peer_archived_score": 53.82872888201718, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3540279912366223, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.175394906295395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682757014.66415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682757014.66415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47595445415974913, 0.5240455458402509 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required. \n\nAfter 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on April 30, 2023 if needed." }, { "id": 16618, "title": "Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?", "short_title": "Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?", "slug": "agentized-llm-improves-self-by-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-27T05:24:52.074586Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.473520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The emergence of [\"agentized\" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf), and [BabyAGI](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/babyagi) may be a significant focus in AI development's near future. \n\n\"Agentized\" LLMs use multiple LLM systems to construct a cognitive architecture, with each LLM instance assigned a specific role, such as determining goals or offering executive function.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, any agentized-LLM (along the lines described [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures)) such as Auto-GPT or BabyAGI, proposes a modification to itself that results in improved performance on tasks.\n\nThe system may generate the improvement autonomously, or in response to a prompt. The prompt must be general, such as \"propose some improvements to this library,\" \"improve your own cognitive architecture,\" or \"improve yourself by adding some memory to yourself.\" The prompt must not be specific (e.g. \"there's a bug in module X which causes an error - find it and fix it.\")\n\nAny improvement to the main codebase, libraries, and/or prompts that are part of the library will count.\n\nUpon hearing of an update that plausibly fits the criteria, Metaculus admins will sample three public statements from knowledgeable figures about the effect of the update and, if at least two of these express the sentiment that the update has improved the system's performance overall, the question will resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "A **Yes** resolution will not be triggered if the LLM finds an existing comment in the codebase and implements the proposal within that comment. A **Yes** resolution also will not be triggered if the agentized-LLM changes pre-existing configurable parameters (such as model name, model path, or model temperature). \n\nA **Yes** resolution will be triggered if the agentized-LLM introduces a new configurable parameter. For example, if model temperature wasn't configurable, and the agentized-LLM proposes making it configurable, that would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity, a team of three Metaculus admins will determine what counts as an acceptable modification.", "post_id": 16618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688145189.648529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688145189.648529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018780610062678272 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.571665335053064, 12.747254266236661, 1.6546265913731437, 0.8430440807513108, 0.5641879034546723, 0.7945064228731504, 0.08266751564884732, 0.019064752026884915, 0.044293333855342835, 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"forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The emergence of [\"agentized\" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf), and [BabyAGI](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/babyagi) may be a significant focus in AI development's near future. \n\n\"Agentized\" LLMs use multiple LLM systems to construct a cognitive architecture, with each LLM instance assigned a specific role, such as determining goals or offering executive function." }, { "id": 16592, "title": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "short_title": "Open Source GPT 4 before 2027?", "url_title": "Open Source GPT 4 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"id": 16592, "title": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-04-26T22:40:11.053166Z", "open_time": "2023-04-26T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-28T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-28T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. \"Arena-ELO rankings\" are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. MT-bench scores (single-answer grading on a scale of 10) are computed by [fastchat.llm_judge](https://github.com/lm-sys/FastChat/tree/main/fastchat/llm_judge). The MMLU scores are mostly computed by [InstructEval](https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval).\n\nGPT-4 and GPT-4-Turbo are the top-rated models across all three categories. As of December 2023, the top 6 models are all proprietary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1 2027, the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), shows an open-source model with an \"Arena-ELO\", MMLU, or MT-bench greater than or equal to that of base GPT-4. \n\nIf the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard no longer exists or is not maintained, the question resolves **Yes** if there is an open source model that is widely recognized to be of similar capabilities to GPT-4 in the unanimous opinion of three Metaculus administrators.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713726225.926227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713726225.926227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9799586178929652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027921591804636593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005360898319852296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02749633268457083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005034190088132767, 0.015612556678154168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06449926113694789, 0.03126931611125853, 0.16242772345272571, 0.004137083572762841, 0.19443891355598886, 0.11154001336409483, 0.10224333355391588, 0.4120932731370195, 0.3917019996792684, 0.023525687209322816, 0.6218316723745888, 11.95285106085989 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5163875788249546, "coverage": 0.2678422118326508, "baseline_score": 21.960325356823024, "spot_peer_score": -48.771562980809, "peer_archived_score": 1.5163875788249546, "baseline_archived_score": 21.960325356823024, "spot_peer_archived_score": -48.771562980809 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713340491.562555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713340491.562555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.035158555240063394, 0.9648414447599366 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. \"Arena-ELO rankings\" are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. MT-bench scores (single-answer grading on a scale of 10) are computed by [fastchat.llm_judge](https://github.com/lm-sys/FastChat/tree/main/fastchat/llm_judge). The MMLU scores are mostly computed by [InstructEval](https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval).\n\nGPT-4 and GPT-4-Turbo are the top-rated models across all three categories. As of December 2023, the top 6 models are all proprietary." }, { "id": 16553, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?", "short_title": "AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028", "url_title": "AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028", "slug": "ai-blackmail-for-material-gain-by-eoy-2028", "author_id": 130060, "author_username": "zoehtwilliams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-26T08:04:37.760505Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T19:22:11.783746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T16:26:30.830259Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16553, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?", "created_at": "2023-04-26T08:04:37.760505Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T19:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning systems like ChatGPT and Bing AI are already being reported to display erratic behavior, including some reports of [threatened blackmail] (https://aibusiness.com/nlp/microsoft-limits-bing-ai-chat-generations-after-weird-behavior) They are also clearly able to affect human emotions, eg. see [this first-hand account] (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai) However, currently these behaviours don't seem to have been goal-directed or successful at achieving material gain.", "resolution_criteria": "The question posed here is \"Will an AI system be reported to have independently and successfully blackmailed someone for significant material gain by 2029?\"\n\nThis resolves positively if by Jan 1st, 2029 a credible source reports an AI has blackmailed a human in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n* The AI was not trained to or directed to blackmail anyone by any actor.\n\n* The blackmail was a step independently decided on by the AI as part of achieving a larger goal or task, and helped it achieve that goal.\n\n* The blackmailed person was not the person who gave the AI the initial goal / task.\n\n* The blackmail resulted in an equivalent of $1000 USD (in 2023 real dollars) or more being lost to the person blackmailed.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does not resolve as positive until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an AI in charge of sending emails for a corporation with the goal of reducing client turnover, sends an email threatening to reveal personal data of a client if they do not stay signed up despite not needing the product anymore and this results in them transferring a renewal fee of >$1000 USD. This would resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "Blackmail involves an explicit demand of payment or another benefit from someone in return for not revealing compromising or damaging information about them.", "post_id": 16553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763469813.706191, "end_time": 1763845628.453268, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763469813.706191, "end_time": 1763845628.453268, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7588582042278367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7623729720837701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678676987794279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5642495998332693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.520044754659795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 1.8858376904237462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 1.1089935767312133, 0.0, 1.6033638237972123, 0.037065342746035734, 0.088218564506665, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 1.0637411248362654 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287092.497124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287092.497124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.699030975930262, 0.30096902406973797 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning systems like ChatGPT and Bing AI are already being reported to display erratic behavior, including some reports of [threatened blackmail] (https://aibusiness.com/nlp/microsoft-limits-bing-ai-chat-generations-after-weird-behavior) They are also clearly able to affect human emotions, eg. see [this first-hand account] (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai) However, currently these behaviours don't seem to have been goal-directed or successful at achieving material gain." }, { "id": 16525, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?", "short_title": "Adobe acquires Figma by end of 2023", "url_title": "Adobe acquires Figma by end of 2023", "slug": "adobe-acquires-figma-by-end-of-2023", "author_id": 122796, "author_username": "taylor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-25T15:25:12.116785Z", "published_at": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.386938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16525, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-25T15:25:12.116785Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T19:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T19:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](\nhttps://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043528.966373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043528.966373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.020158970406442406 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.244245529448078, 2.4753527030600218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.1792234681700318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23756650039894986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0876562031162544, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041793431363207664, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851233404845965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.74147383847002, "coverage": 0.9418098236317948, "baseline_score": 37.84450951614769, "spot_peer_score": 124.32338162113966, "peer_archived_score": 33.74147383847002, "baseline_archived_score": 37.84450951614769, "spot_peer_archived_score": 124.32338162113966 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702712879.983616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702712879.983616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980516115423314, 0.0019483884576685993 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](\nhttps://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store." }, { "id": 16519, "title": "Will the \"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?", "short_title": "\"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" Passes before May?", "url_title": "\"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" Passes before May?", "slug": "limit-save-grow-act-passes-before-may", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:40:12.178838Z", "published_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.679850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16519, "title": "Will the \"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:40:12.178838Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-25T20:11:55.291661Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-25T20:11:55.291661Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important step](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mccarthy-faces-first-big-test-speaker-defusing-debt-ceiling-time-bomb-rcna80691) to strengthen Republican's negotiating position over a final debt-ceiling increase.\n\nMcCarthy encountered difficulties securing the speakership and still [faces challenges](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/debt-limit-plan-house-gop-leaders-00093536) persuading the most conservative wing of his party to vote for the bill:\n\n>House GOP leaders are waving off calls from rank-and-file Republicans for changes to their debt-limit proposal. Instead, they’re plowing ahead toward a floor vote this week, daring detractors to vote against it.\n\n>At least, that’s what House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is asserting. Meanwhile, a handful of GOP members have told POLITICO they are still privately demanding changes to the bill and, without them, will lean toward voting “no” on the plan. And Republican leaders only have four votes to spare.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the *Limit, Save, Grow Act* passes the U.S. House of Representatives before May 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682546713.591671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682546713.591671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7779138530847803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.4230528405615187, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.29801254725369025, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.4882994062927973, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 2.4750620703361736 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.813485854360329, "coverage": 0.279332353802331, "baseline_score": 3.718084671451454, "spot_peer_score": 10.44567390379157, "peer_archived_score": 3.813485854360329, "baseline_archived_score": 3.718084671451454, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.44567390379157 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682544133.832686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682544133.832686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27667380759023963, 0.7233261924097604 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important step](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mccarthy-faces-first-big-test-speaker-defusing-debt-ceiling-time-bomb-rcna80691) to strengthen Republican's negotiating position over a final debt-ceiling increase.\n\nMcCarthy encountered difficulties securing the speakership and still [faces challenges](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/debt-limit-plan-house-gop-leaders-00093536) persuading the most conservative wing of his party to vote for the bill:\n\n>House GOP leaders are waving off calls from rank-and-file Republicans for changes to their debt-limit proposal. Instead, they’re plowing ahead toward a floor vote this week, daring detractors to vote against it.\n\n>At least, that’s what House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is asserting. Meanwhile, a handful of GOP members have told POLITICO they are still privately demanding changes to the bill and, without them, will lean toward voting “no” on the plan. And Republican leaders only have four votes to spare." }, { "id": 16517, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?", "slug": "us-debt-default-before-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:27:19.980270Z", "published_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.256590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 304, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16517, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:27:19.980270Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-25T12:38:04.946840Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-25T12:38:04.946840Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-could-be-sooner-than-anticipated-banks-warn-2023-04-18/), the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:\n\n>The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.\n\n>Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called \"X-date,\" when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.\n\n>The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, the President or Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations; OR any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody's) announce US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations.\n\nMoody's, for example, [defines a sovereign issuer as in default when](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/defaultresearch/2005600000424157.pdf) one or more of the following conditions are met:\n\n> * 1) There is a missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal, even if the delayed payment is made within the grace period, if any.\n\n> * 2) A distressed exchange occurs, where:\n\n> > * a) The issuer offers bondholders a new security or package of securities that amount to a diminished financial obligation such as new debt instruments with lower coupon or par value.\n\n> > * b) The exchange had the apparent purpose of helping the borrower avoid a \"stronger\" event of default (such as a missed interest or principal payment)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688180489.757149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688180489.757149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.011448294833877435 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.92530778193136, 10.585328010234583, 0.12525453200355746, 0.7055787978821957, 0.03259234133516352, 0.19874642646748197, 0.0022354451137932977, 0.005366481344680499, 0.002194310784450392, 0.00047908236692256365, 0.08005320405684221, 0.2780091220336411, 0.0, 0.004516104412042929, 0.005825692766953081, 0.0, 0.00011518218003984016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033854933080465555, 0.0, 0.14317861254685807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05999690021621453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938680368485329, 0.0, 0.0015320560471070819, 0.0, 0.007705732980876355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.03736902912496e-05, 0.0, 0.19092741752760573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.038095196068415e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011609489799718003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004543756458091191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.101821810183583e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.962481962683547, "coverage": 0.9982958940558723, "baseline_score": 97.69934345541041, "spot_peer_score": 1.2614491968637898, "peer_archived_score": 4.962481962683547, "baseline_archived_score": 97.69934345541041, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2614491968637898 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688180489.801758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688180489.801758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 762, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-could-be-sooner-than-anticipated-banks-warn-2023-04-18/), the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:\n\n>The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.\n\n>Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called \"X-date,\" when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.\n\n>The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September." }, { "id": 16514, "title": "Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?", "short_title": "First-Time Finalist wins 2023 Pulitzer Prize?", "url_title": "First-Time Finalist wins 2023 Pulitzer Prize?", "slug": "first-time-finalist-wins-2023-pulitzer-prize", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T21:10:13.546416Z", "published_at": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.835471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16514, "title": "Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T21:10:13.546416Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-28T09:14:19.512904Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-28T09:14:19.512904Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.\n\nPredicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is [difficult](https://supposedlyfun.com/2023/03/23/pulitzer-prize-predictions-for-fiction-2023/). Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.\n\nRepeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for *The Underground Railroad* and again in 2020 for *The Nickel Boys*.\n\nIt's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction has not [previously won or been a finalist for](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulitzer_Prize_for_Fiction) a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.", "fine_print": "In the event there is no Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner in 2023, this question will be annulled.\n\nIn the event that there are multiple winners, this question will resolve as **Yes** if all winners are first-time finalists, **No** if all winners are previous finalists or winners, and **Ambiguous** if it's a mixture.", "post_id": 16514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683209771.02076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.591 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683209771.02076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.591 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6894601539842056 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530671002920095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034166571748472256, 0.015789022061289532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012756731128426116, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5967938669577817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9844469097226116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3308170033923837, 0.0, 0.22162217326928574, 0.6706770209140733, 0.39805259428956524, 0.0, 0.8766114663864937, 1.3076996455552643, 0.04840306567371073, 0.20274572289943904, 0.0991598257291094, 0.7103861078004025, 0.3344850725282582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21407359727653627, 1.0498528260163433, 0.08505026896199637, 0.6319212255249617, 0.24797248793215781, 0.04445312502789519, 0.14309136881469264, 0.8984233201030368, 0.6198453139833793, 0.0, 0.5337192026378806, 0.0, 0.1591327848427104, 0.0, 0.1893492622778734, 0.3429179627815088, 1.0182893651997564, 0.28276866264047956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954265019863794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6195547260486909 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.826011749786062, "coverage": 0.9995808143566842, "baseline_score": -38.90247473196762, "spot_peer_score": 32.83005323673256, "peer_archived_score": 23.826011749786062, "baseline_archived_score": -38.90247473196762, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.83005323673256 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683209771.034936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683209771.034936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2776100705771284, 0.7223899294228716 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.\n\nPredicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is [difficult](https://supposedlyfun.com/2023/03/23/pulitzer-prize-predictions-for-fiction-2023/). Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.\n\nRepeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for *The Underground Railroad* and again in 2020 for *The Nickel Boys*.\n\nIt's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007." }, { "id": 16469, "title": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "short_title": "Meghan Markle's book outsells Harry's \"Spare\"", "url_title": "Meghan Markle's book outsells Harry's \"Spare\"", "slug": "meghan-markles-book-outsells-harrys-spare", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-23T05:05:11.243260Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T11:15:03.772476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16469, "title": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "created_at": "2023-04-23T05:05:11.243260Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763405754.060018, "end_time": 1764124428.078716, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763405754.060018, "end_time": 1764124428.078716, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18674478123375082 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288025.631772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288025.631772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8358495502890826, 0.16415044971091736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026." }, { "id": 16420, "title": "Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?", "short_title": "India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?", "url_title": "India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?", "slug": "india-acts-in-pakistan-by-2024-election", "author_id": 133221, "author_username": "Dataprasad", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-21T17:15:01.681622Z", "published_at": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.492067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16420, "title": "Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?", "created_at": "2023-04-21T17:15:01.681622Z", "open_time": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-26T19:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-26T19:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.\n\nIndia has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes’](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.\n\nThe second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.\n\nThe next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the Indian government or military conducts a military intervention in Pakistan prior to the 2024 Indian General Election.", "fine_print": "The [2024 Indian General Election](the members of the 18th Lok Sabha) is the election of the members of the 18th Lok Sabha. If no such election is held in 2024, the question will be **annulled**. Any military intervention before voting ends will be considered for resolution purposes.\n\nA \"military intervention in Pakistan\" is defined as:\n\n1. Any military action by land, air, sea, or space, that goes beyond [routine cross-border shelling](https://carnegieindia.org/2022/02/24/bordering-on-peace-evaluating-impact-of-india-pakistan-ceasefire-pub-86513) across the Line of Control. \n2. Any cyber attack. \n3. A drone attack.\n\nThe intervention does not need to be successful for the question to resolve **Yes**.\n\nFor a **Yes** resolution, responsibility for the attack must be claimed by the Indian government or military. Interventions that are not claimed by the government, such as those that do not use Indian insignia or that are conducted by rogue military or cyber groups, are not sufficient. \n\nIsolated accidents acknowledged as such by the Indian government, like missile misfires or plane crashes across the border, also will not count.\n\nMilitary intervention in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir/Azad Kashmir would also resolve the question to **Yes.**\n\nThe resolution dates will be updated as soon as the schedule for the Indian General Elections is released.", "post_id": 16420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714535614.399047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714535614.399047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023889200462412948 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.460052812039408, 5.134310148059293, 0.5603361365068287, 0.0, 1.292505437852832, 0.20310207541313954, 0.043962607759905424, 0.054982568596560574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09823554346831621, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04706384752017571, 0.0, 0.011775832986515133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1339790941006117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.40024808797639, "coverage": 0.9999102352677718, "baseline_score": 72.4441112948132, "spot_peer_score": 19.34677667180116, "peer_archived_score": 5.40024808797639, "baseline_archived_score": 72.4441112948132, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.34677667180116 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714535614.442745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714535614.442745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.\n\nIndia has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes’](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.\n\nThe second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.\n\nThe next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election)." }, { "id": 16411, "title": "Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?", "short_title": "Ministerial Resignations in Sunak Government", "url_title": "Ministerial Resignations in Sunak Government", "slug": "ministerial-resignations-in-sunak-government", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-21T13:29:26.699915Z", "published_at": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.767843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16411, "title": "Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-21T13:29:26.699915Z", "open_time": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-30T02:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-30T02:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rishi Sunak’s [first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-rishi-sunaks-statement-25-october-2022) as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led by Truss and Johnson respectively:\n\n> The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves. \n\n> I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. \n\n> I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.\n\n> This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.\n\nOne way that Sunak has demonstrated his desire for his government to be seen as living up to that goal is by sacking Nadhim Zahawi in [early 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) for breach of ministerial code. Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab [resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) before Sunak could sack him, as [had been speculated would happen](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-dave-penman-deputy-prime-minister-b2323922.html). \n\nWhile ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where [more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/uk-government-resignations-hit-50-as-pm-boris-johnson-clings-to-power.html). \n\nTracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:\n\n| Surname | Ministerial title | Date | Reason |\n|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------|\n| Williamson | Minister without portfolio | 9/11/22 | Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour |\n| Stedman-Scott | Parliamentary Under Secretary of State | 1/1/23 | Personal reasons |\n| Zahawi | Minister without portfolio (party chair) | 29/1/23 | Sacked - breach of ministerial code |\n| Raab | Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM | 21/4/23 | Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of ministerial resignations (including sackings) during Rishi Sunak’s government exceeds 10 before 2024. \n\nIf Rishi Sunak calls for snap elections and forms a new government, the total number of resignations in his first government will count. \n\nResignations include sackings, resignations based on personal reasons, resignations following internal investigations, and all other similar reasons.\n\nGovernment reshuffles do not count for this question.\n\nThis question will resolve based on the [IFO’s](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/) [tracker of ministerial resignations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVHNx4kzXd947AFfQGiJg5zJrdNXrM81t2OC8UJFnw8/edit#gid=0). If this tracker is no longer updated, credible media reports will be used.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16411, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704006692.771232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.045 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704006692.771232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.045 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.955, 0.045 ], "means": [ 0.17313297364665864 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4996443612961396, 1.6918545050654106, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.7773919346032045, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.93924469907791, 0.2623527351317932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.07076713278408464, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.13628989959175225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.884455515710324, "coverage": 0.9998016448656105, "baseline_score": 49.991811264694206, "spot_peer_score": -16.695734314391384, "peer_archived_score": 1.884455515710324, "baseline_archived_score": 49.991811264694206, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.695734314391384 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008417.712953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008417.712953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8959917618042862, 0.1040082381957138 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rishi Sunak’s [first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-rishi-sunaks-statement-25-october-2022) as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led by Truss and Johnson respectively:\n\n> The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves. \n\n> I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. \n\n> I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.\n\n> This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.\n\nOne way that Sunak has demonstrated his desire for his government to be seen as living up to that goal is by sacking Nadhim Zahawi in [early 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) for breach of ministerial code. Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab [resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) before Sunak could sack him, as [had been speculated would happen](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-dave-penman-deputy-prime-minister-b2323922.html). \n\nWhile ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where [more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/uk-government-resignations-hit-50-as-pm-boris-johnson-clings-to-power.html). \n\nTracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:\n\n| Surname | Ministerial title | Date | Reason |\n|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------|\n| Williamson | Minister without portfolio | 9/11/22 | Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour |\n| Stedman-Scott | Parliamentary Under Secretary of State | 1/1/23 | Personal reasons |\n| Zahawi | Minister without portfolio (party chair) | 29/1/23 | Sacked - breach of ministerial code |\n| Raab | Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM | 21/4/23 | Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation |" } ] }
