Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3700
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3680", "results": [ { "id": 11411, "title": "Will more than 33% of the earth's land area be covered by forest in 2050?", "short_title": "Over 33% of land area forested in 2050", "url_title": "Over 33% of land area forested in 2050", "slug": "over-33-of-land-area-forested-in-2050", "author_id": 111541, "author_username": "DerMannOhneEigenschaften", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-17T21:32:51.815820Z", "published_at": "2022-06-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:28:31.676402Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2054-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11411, "title": "Will more than 33% of the earth's land area be covered by forest in 2050?", "created_at": "2022-06-17T21:32:51.815820Z", "open_time": "2022-06-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-22T17:14:04.327738Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-22T17:14:04.327738Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2054-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines forest as:\n\n> Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. \n\nIn 2020, FAO estimated ([pdf](https://www.fao.org/3/CA8753EN/CA8753EN.pdf)) about 31% of the earth's land area to be covered by forest. That's [down](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation) from ~34% in 1900 and ~37% in 1700. Much of that is due to increasing population levels; the United Nations [projects](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900) a population of 9-10 billion people in 2050. On the other hand, the agricultural sector is producing ever more food per hectare of land, and [in several countries the deforestation trend has already reversed](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved using either using the median of the first three estimates to be published in credible academic journals in 2050 or thereafter, or an estimate given by the UN published in 2050 or later, whichever happens first.", "fine_print": "The estimates must use any definition of _forest_ given by FAO or another UN agency from 2020 and on. If by 2055-01-01 there are no estimates using any of those definitions, any estimate using any definition of _forest_ is allowed. However, the estimates still need to be of how much of land area is forested (not how much of habitable area is forested).\n\nA report or paper can also give an estimate of how much habitable land is forested, assuming it provides an estimate of how much land is habitable (so the percentage of forested land can be derived). Habitable land excludes deserts, glaciers, rock and other barren terrain, which we assume to be 0% forested.", "post_id": 11411, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757635608.927884, "end_time": 1759651572.188963, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757635608.927884, "end_time": 1759651572.188963, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.21926618597278558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3694854406094255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 1.0610640770123319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7743357473878192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36122387397406175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3951908663369888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289331.848291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289331.848291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8671797175011912, 0.13282028249880887 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines forest as:\n\n> Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. \n\nIn 2020, FAO estimated ([pdf](https://www.fao.org/3/CA8753EN/CA8753EN.pdf)) about 31% of the earth's land area to be covered by forest. That's [down](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation) from ~34% in 1900 and ~37% in 1700. Much of that is due to increasing population levels; the United Nations [projects](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900) a population of 9-10 billion people in 2050. On the other hand, the agricultural sector is producing ever more food per hectare of land, and [in several countries the deforestation trend has already reversed](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation)." }, { "id": 11401, "title": "If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?", "short_title": "China Controls Taiwan after Invasion", "url_title": "China Controls Taiwan after Invasion", "slug": "china-controls-taiwan-after-invasion", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-17T03:15:38.527690Z", "published_at": "2022-06-19T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:37:56.654941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-19T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 105, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-19T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 248, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T13:21:06.553528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T13:21:06.553528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11401, "title": "If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?", "created_at": "2022-06-17T03:15:38.527690Z", "open_time": "2022-06-19T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-20T07:30:30.602000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-20T07:30:30.602000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/asia/china-taiwan-invasion-scenarios-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html),\n\n> If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.\n\n> But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.\n\n> Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will only resolve as either **Yes** or **No** if China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire [main island of Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan) is under *de facto* control of the People's Republic of China.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, China will be considered to \"launch a full-scale invasion\" if the event is described as such by both The New York Times and the Associated Press, or if at least 1,000 Chinese Armed Forces are deployed to put the [main island of Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan) under the control of the People's Republic of China. In other words, invasion will be defined the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/).\n\nFor this question, \"de facto\" control indicates that a government has the ability to freely deploy armed forces or police in a given region and has the ability to pass some laws governing that region. The final determination of who has \"de facto\" control will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11401, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758292739.64585, "end_time": 1761817847.828867, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758292739.64585, "end_time": 1761817847.828867, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6472108764914245 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0006427016164609442, 0.0194527689393142, 0.0010081236726364195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03925169558532279, 0.4856740558796933, 0.007226210588939221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016048496957457248, 0.0007819672224394374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020417355044461042, 0.656264590128972, 0.03601472044111929, 0.7224593500674428, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2119106346884572, 0.0, 0.006086357702312305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22205200813388404, 0.0, 0.0001482068098944614, 0.04293800551324118, 0.30472205134005687, 0.028031185211182353, 0.0, 0.002188147380029663, 0.009535690169592938, 0.0, 1.1195089582261075, 8.088850356782961e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11397885110811179, 0.6752730313075268, 0.00022065200679996673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055041687530567616, 1.3356795010726936, 0.0, 0.3329878842450267, 0.04143706304905705, 0.0, 0.5608904453284385, 0.0289690905376823, 0.0, 0.0, 5.5415849550497595e-05, 1.2203257682457664, 0.0049518136323819986, 0.8828446228064994, 0.0, 1.086313882741643, 0.8921530600365426, 0.4466995343254812, 1.207721189131153, 0.4554383518272166, 0.48528220681568146, 1.782064221807885, 3.3063231269592234e-05, 0.005492868244850595, 0.0, 7.377433739417322e-05, 0.9726570396032255, 1.3806388884388934, 0.28323852259495425, 0.7626732467748534, 0.37967246249944203, 1.9470120623959348, 0.00024074033905718806, 0.903918715782378, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4969318650257954, 0.0023160235303272604, 0.0, 0.24096550526292582, 0.017929401833603448, 1.3045254610158135, 0.0, 1.080433829388133e-05, 0.082863795767015, 0.0, 0.5908399374415186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3895322737248543 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289192.574913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289192.574913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5386906011204913, 0.46130939887950867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 552, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/asia/china-taiwan-invasion-scenarios-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html),\n\n> If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.\n\n> But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.\n\n> Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops." }, { "id": 11381, "title": "Will the Catholic Church end the requirement for clerical celibacy by 2030?", "short_title": "Clerical celibacy in the Catholic Church", "url_title": "Clerical celibacy in the Catholic Church", "slug": "clerical-celibacy-in-the-catholic-church", "author_id": 116988, "author_username": "palcu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-15T15:54:02.665662Z", "published_at": "2022-09-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.259644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11381, "title": "Will the Catholic Church end the requirement for clerical celibacy by 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-15T15:54:02.665662Z", "open_time": "2022-09-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Wikipedia, [Clerical celibacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clerical_celibacy_in_the_Catholic_Church) is the discipline within the Catholic Church by which only unmarried men are ordained to priesthood.\n\nRecently there have been [discussions](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spains-catholics-challenge-future-of-priestly-celibacy-n8hwdn65m) about this issue. We also have a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10817/date-that-catholic-church-ordains-women/) about the possibility of female clergy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Roman Catholic Church announces via any official channel that it will allow ordination of married men into the priesthood or allow priests to marry before January 1, 2030. It resolves as **No** if no such announcements are made.", "fine_print": "* If the Roman Catholic Church undergoes a schism prior to resolution to such a great degree that it is unclear which institution is generally recognized as having legitimacy over all other institutions claiming to be the Roman Catholic Church, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.\n* If any of the status of clergy, the process of ordination, or the Roman Catholic Church cease to exist prior to resolution, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.\n* Allowing deacons or bishops to marry or to be ordained if already married is immaterial to this question.\n* This question specifically refers to the [Latin Church](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_Church) within catholicism.\n* Exceptions made for converts and other minor exceptions do not qualify, it must apply broadly.", "post_id": 11381, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756820844.204278, "end_time": 1759823483.71021, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.038 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756820844.204278, "end_time": 1759823483.71021, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.038 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026689931203548848 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.762460149376938, 3.168490533239335, 0.9749141427372532, 1.0170717053076694, 0.7445660976288506, 0.12903657012998196, 0.0, 0.3170490273255169, 0.1314375106214734, 0.19462111545643215, 0.6942363207968397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289440.206308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289440.206308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9967343863520065, 0.0032656136479934862 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Wikipedia, [Clerical celibacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clerical_celibacy_in_the_Catholic_Church) is the discipline within the Catholic Church by which only unmarried men are ordained to priesthood.\n\nRecently there have been [discussions](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spains-catholics-challenge-future-of-priestly-celibacy-n8hwdn65m) about this issue. We also have a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10817/date-that-catholic-church-ordains-women/) about the possibility of female clergy." }, { "id": 11376, "title": "Will at least $1.5 billion in new funding toward US pandemic preparedness be appropriated if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?", "short_title": ">$1.5B New US Pandemic Preparedness Funding", "url_title": ">$1.5B New US Pandemic Preparedness Funding", "slug": "15b-new-us-pandemic-preparedness-funding", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-14T22:06:02.531465Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.253649Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T11:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the [Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On 15 March, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. \r\n\r\nThe PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen U.S. pandemic preparedness, including via authorization of ~$1.9 billion in new spending, mostly for: early warning, real time monitoring, strengthening public health, and Strategic National Stockpile supply chain. This spending would subsequently have to be appropriated by the appropriations committee and passed by the entire Congress and signed by the President.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether a significant amount of the funding authorized by the PREVENT Pandemics Act will subsequently be appropriated and thus made available for use.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 1, 2023, at least $1.5 billion in new funding that was authorized by the PREVENT Pandemics Act is appropriated by Congress. This is **conditional** on the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made law before February 2023 ([this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11373/prevent-pandemics-act/) Metaculus question would have to resolve as **Yes**).\r\n\r\nIf the PREVENT Pandemics Act has not been made law before February 2023 ([this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11373/prevent-pandemics-act/) Metaculus question resolves as **No**), then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\r\n\r\nIf the version of the PREVENT Pandemics Act that is made law does not include at least $1.5 billion in new funding, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\r\n\r\nIf >$1.5B in new U.S. pandemic preparedness funding is appropriated before 1 June 2023, but this funding is different from that which was authorized by the PREVENT Pandemics Act, then this question will resolve as **No.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11376, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656388850.364616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656388850.364616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7470576527769597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.5112618060922339, 0.9336392061291541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656574538.288566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656574538.288566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45243348283410734, 0.5475665171658927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the [Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On 15 March, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. \r\n\r\nThe PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen U.S. pandemic preparedness, including via authorization of ~$1.9 billion in new spending, mostly for: early warning, real time monitoring, strengthening public health, and Strategic National Stockpile supply chain. This spending would subsequently have to be appropriated by the appropriations committee and passed by the entire Congress and signed by the President.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether a significant amount of the funding authorized by the PREVENT Pandemics Act will subsequently be appropriated and thus made available for use." }, { "id": 11374, "title": "Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?", "short_title": "New US Pandemic Preparedness Office", "url_title": "New US Pandemic Preparedness Office", "slug": "new-us-pandemic-preparedness-office", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-14T21:41:06.808145Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.802833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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(R-NC) introduced the [Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On 15 March, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. \n\nThe PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen U.S. pandemic preparedness, including via the creation of an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPRP) within the Executive Office of the President. According to the Institute for Progress, this is a [\"saving grace\"](https://progress.institute/preventing-pandemics-requires-funding/) of the Act:\n> This office should be able to coordinate with the Office of Management and Budget to request the appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of these funds. Hopefully, the OPPRP will remain in the final version of the bill and Congress will eventually appropriate the funding needed to achieve everyone’s goal of preventing future pandemics.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the potentially critical component that is the creation of the OPPRP will be in the PREVENT Pandemics Act, should the PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the PREVENT Pandemics Act includes a component creating an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPRP) within the Executive Office of the President. This is **conditional** on the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made law before February 2023 ([this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11373/prevent-pandemics-act/) Metaculus question would have to resolve as **Yes**).\n\nIf the PREVENT Pandemics Act has not been made law before February 2023 (ie. 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On 15 March, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. \n\nThe PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen U.S. pandemic preparedness, including via the creation of an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPRP) within the Executive Office of the President. According to the Institute for Progress, this is a [\"saving grace\"](https://progress.institute/preventing-pandemics-requires-funding/) of the Act:\n> This office should be able to coordinate with the Office of Management and Budget to request the appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of these funds. Hopefully, the OPPRP will remain in the final version of the bill and Congress will eventually appropriate the funding needed to achieve everyone’s goal of preventing future pandemics.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the potentially critical component that is the creation of the OPPRP will be in the PREVENT Pandemics Act, should the PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law." }, { "id": 11373, "title": "Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?", "short_title": "PREVENT Pandemics Act Made Law", "url_title": "PREVENT Pandemics Act Made Law", "slug": "prevent-pandemics-act-made-law", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-14T21:25:51.154262Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.661347Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation.\n\nThe most recent draft of the PREVENT Pandemics Act would, among other things, do the following to strengthen US pandemic preparedness:\n>\n- Authorize ~$1.9 billion in new spending, [mostly for](https://progress.institute/preventing-pandemics-requires-funding/): early warning, real time monitoring, strengthening public health, and Strategic National Stockpile supply chain (note: this spending would subsequently have to be appropriated by congressional appropriations committee)\n- Create an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy within the Executive Office of the President. This office would be able to coordinate with other agencies to request appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of funding\n- Set several new requirements for the FDA, including mandating prioritization of infectious disease drugs and biologics during a pandemic and publishing guidance on how clinical trial designs can be used to speed up development and review of drugs to address future public health emergencies\n- Enables CDC to set up extensive genomic sequencing and directs CDC to improve data sharing\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made into law in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2023, the PREVENT Pandemics Act has been [made into law](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made). This would almost certainly involve both the US House and Senate passing the legislation, and then the US President signing it. Any version of the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made into law would count.", "fine_print": "In rare cases, legislation can be made into law via Congress (both House and Senate) overriding a presidential veto. Passage of the PREVENT Pandemics Act in this manner would still count for this question to resolve as **Yes.**", "post_id": 11373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673310530.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23698029139213944 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673310530.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23698029139213944 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5146745556509024 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.093322510930906, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 0.3049561900209807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.19252978045437533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09222549710312164, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0865596465657525, 0.0, 0.054990568765650165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.7136500237255152, 0.0, 0.020802329515877564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 0.0, 0.022058754498364058, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.0, 0.8629050061859964, 0.017823678094023753, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5817644226025992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2584984088105264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 1.530167376842213 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.8653594904386271, "coverage": 0.8559737353142679, "baseline_score": -9.242796694017775, "spot_peer_score": 10.645665232656103, "peer_archived_score": -0.8653594904386271, "baseline_archived_score": -9.242796694017775, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.645665232656103 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672253069.610739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672253069.610739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9172121363444321, 0.08278786365556784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Earlier this year, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the [Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and (PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation.\n\nThe most recent draft of the PREVENT Pandemics Act would, among other things, do the following to strengthen US pandemic preparedness:\n>\n- Authorize ~$1.9 billion in new spending, [mostly for](https://progress.institute/preventing-pandemics-requires-funding/): early warning, real time monitoring, strengthening public health, and Strategic National Stockpile supply chain (note: this spending would subsequently have to be appropriated by congressional appropriations committee)\n- Create an Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy within the Executive Office of the President. This office would be able to coordinate with other agencies to request appropriate funding and then direct the productive use of funding\n- Set several new requirements for the FDA, including mandating prioritization of infectious disease drugs and biologics during a pandemic and publishing guidance on how clinical trial designs can be used to speed up development and review of drugs to address future public health emergencies\n- Enables CDC to set up extensive genomic sequencing and directs CDC to improve data sharing\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of the PREVENT Pandemics Act being made into law in the near future." }, { "id": 11357, "title": "Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?", "short_title": "FDA Authorizes Vaccine w/o Phase III Data", "url_title": "FDA Authorizes Vaccine w/o Phase III Data", "slug": "fda-authorizes-vaccine-wo-phase-iii-data", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11357, "title": "Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?", "created_at": "2022-06-14T15:54:00.034820Z", "open_time": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-18T11:28:27.044400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-18T11:28:27.044400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [normally requires](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a [public health emergency (PHE)](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) has been declared: for example, during the COVID-19 PHE the FDA [required](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) phase III clinical efficacy trials for authorization of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Phase III trials, which involve the the vaccine candidate being administered to thousands of people to test for efficacy, are the [longest and costliest](https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/examination-clinical-trial-costs-barriers-drug-development-0) phase of clinical testing.\n\nHowever, some have argued that the FDA need not insist on clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines in emergency situations — especially given that the congressional authorization for Emergency Use Authorization [does not require](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/#emergency-use-authorization-doesn-t-require-clinical-trial-data) applications to include phase III clinical data. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand how likely US FDA is to authorize a new vaccine on an emergency basis via an [Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) without phase III clinical data being in the relevant vaccine application package.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 1, 2032, the US FDA authorizes a vaccine on an emergency basis before that vaccine has completed a phase III clinical trial. This is **conditional** on the US declaring a public health emergency (relevant Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11346/us-declares-public-health-emergency-by-2031/)) **and** on a subsequent declaration authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs (no relevant Metaculus question, but example [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/17/2020-05484/declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical-countermeasures)) If these two conditions are not met, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nFor the purposes of this question, If a vaccine is authorized after a Human Challenge Trial is completed in place of a full-scale phase-III trial, that would be considered an authorization without a phase-III trial and this question would resolve as **Yes.**", "fine_print": "This question will only consider Public Health Emergencies in response to infectious disease outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks. Any such PHE declaration after June 1, 2022 and before June 1, 2032 (excluding renewals of the COVID-19 PHE) is elligible to resolve this question.", "post_id": 11357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736115146.664053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736115146.664053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.1008440615000072 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7650902320191992, 4.091303071818941, 0.0006464075098986488, 0.0, 0.002434713260461474, 1.625552531241918, 1.4577414193590381, 0.8552504309591337, 1.4702488971396577, 1.618948426645034, 0.7722697711702814, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2498417353345672, 1.0, 0.2777352451931971, 0.2093699522177185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16197370563350647, 0.21820279473201737, 0.0, 0.1195449971034523, 0.27563016474542656, 0.004776341353411186, 0.5619894469518466, 0.033085380113684774, 0.7894297038895938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04412525277097711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013570757934363003, 0.0, 0.00030111676185677724, 0.040654245656586985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026360818993107264, 0.0, 0.002239640883868526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043174041556776005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028389087526959154, 0.0, 0.000760295965181982, 0.050006053822204265, 0.0, 0.007020536596245228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010964104844829023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015303611543873974, 0.3248031490158678, 0.05447998931306064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019873070315947383, 0.00013237564647172888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017961492603685642, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288522.918741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288522.918741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9821467889407203, 0.017853211059279707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [normally requires](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a [public health emergency (PHE)](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) has been declared: for example, during the COVID-19 PHE the FDA [required](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) phase III clinical efficacy trials for authorization of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Phase III trials, which involve the the vaccine candidate being administered to thousands of people to test for efficacy, are the [longest and costliest](https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/examination-clinical-trial-costs-barriers-drug-development-0) phase of clinical testing.\n\nHowever, some have argued that the FDA need not insist on clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines in emergency situations — especially given that the congressional authorization for Emergency Use Authorization [does not require](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/#emergency-use-authorization-doesn-t-require-clinical-trial-data) applications to include phase III clinical data. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand how likely US FDA is to authorize a new vaccine on an emergency basis via an [Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) without phase III clinical data being in the relevant vaccine application package." }, { "id": 11346, "title": "Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?", "short_title": "US Declares Public Health Emergency by 2032", "url_title": "US Declares Public Health Emergency by 2032", "slug": "us-declares-public-health-emergency-by-2032", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-14T15:21:33.419752Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.258699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-04T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-04T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-16T21:00:00Z", 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) [can be declared](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:\n> The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nHere, we are specifically asking about a PHE being declared in response to a significant outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack. Since August 2005, there have been [three such unique declarations](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/default.aspx): [H1N1 Flu](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/h1n1.aspx), [Zika](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), and [COVID-19](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx).\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a new PHE being declared at some point in the coming years, which is important for informing near-term pandemic preparedness efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, the US declares a new public health emergency due to an outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack.\n\nFor this question, an event will be considered a \"bioterrorist attack\" or an \"infectious disease outbreak\" *solely* if the US government describes it as such in relation to the PHE declaration", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659617040.344439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659617040.344439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7602241121862423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10425867804548924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3853915778427911, 0.4232326753374705, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2692227739323627, 0.0, 0.08181124203511007, 1.0, 1.5699428512830886, 0.6689507362834664, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.005273832250717887, 0.6478098280373016, 1.8946434429621812, 0.0, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.9215524609140802, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9546662959539092, "coverage": 0.052151980286321425, "baseline_score": 3.137580664159237, "spot_peer_score": 35.831727975340456, "peer_archived_score": 1.9546662959539092, "baseline_archived_score": 3.137580664159237, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.831727975340456 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659617040.356697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659617040.356697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25642842796582554, 0.7435715720341745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the US, a public health emergency (PHE) [can be declared](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) in response to a disease/disorder, significant infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack:\n> The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nHere, we are specifically asking about a PHE being declared in response to a significant outbreak of infectious disease or a bioterrorist attack. Since August 2005, there have been [three such unique declarations](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/default.aspx): [H1N1 Flu](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/h1n1.aspx), [Zika](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), and [COVID-19](https://www.phe.gov/emergency/news/healthactions/phe/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx).\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a new PHE being declared at some point in the coming years, which is important for informing near-term pandemic preparedness efforts." }, { "id": 11332, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "short_title": "Coalition Wins Australian Federal Election", "url_title": "Coalition Wins Australian Federal Election", "slug": "coalition-wins-australian-federal-election", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-13T08:26:00.604968Z", "published_at": "2022-07-02T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.559075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-02T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-02T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15874, "name": "Global Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🕊️🌐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11332, "title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "created_at": "2022-06-13T08:26:00.604968Z", "open_time": "2022-07-02T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-04T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T11:48:20.848104Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. In May 2022, Australia held a general election to elect the 47th Parliament of Australia. The next general election (for the 48th Parliament) will occur within the next three years. \n\nFrom Wikipedia:\n\n> The next Australian federal election will be held some time in or before 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.\n\nQuestion mostly copied from the [2022 general election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/) by @chrisjbillington.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition or by the Liberal Party.\n\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\n\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\n\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThis question will close when voting closes for the eastern states (NSW, Victoria, Queensland) on election day", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746268660.05714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746268660.05714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.14262618460242962 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7616925955377141, 2.2407845812899203, 0.9350864571275419, 0.8161110159876654, 0.39618411090454325, 1.6572684642231301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5338394326564748, 0.0, 0.8172345368499854, 0.0, 0.4960965120584363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6621607275305496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.24334922018541436, 0.33953082659674816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.2898717268244653, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.34787153385246866, 0.0, 0.22973504174040937, 0.06775725801644725, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28366554019642165, 0.1690099421705, 0.0, 0.1345137037522881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10155422864166669, 0.0, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21774093265843764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.352560433855295, "peer_score": -0.6055348986171454, "coverage": 0.8108953925448615, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999412906540331, "spot_peer_score": -8.989655522029803, "spot_baseline_score": 40.05379295837285, "baseline_archived_score": 18.352560433855295, "peer_archived_score": -0.6055348986171454, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.989655522029803, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.05379295837285 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287265.424793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287265.424793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6870628069284285, 0.31293719307157153 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 244, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. In May 2022, Australia held a general election to elect the 47th Parliament of Australia. The next general election (for the 48th Parliament) will occur within the next three years. \n\nFrom Wikipedia:\n\n> The next Australian federal election will be held some time in or before 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.\n\nQuestion mostly copied from the [2022 general election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/) by @chrisjbillington." }, { "id": 11324, "title": "Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?", "short_title": "AI given rights in US before 2035", "url_title": "AI given rights in US before 2035", "slug": "ai-given-rights-in-us-before-2035", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-12T02:15:50.423848Z", "published_at": "2022-06-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T11:34:45.197284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1248, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T09:32:09.062811Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T09:32:09.062811Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11324, "title": "Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-06-12T02:15:50.423848Z", "open_time": "2022-06-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-16T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A recent [Washington Post article](https://archive.ph/F1bKs) chronicled an interesting development at Google,\n\n> Lemoine, who works for Google’s Responsible AI organization, began talking to LaMDA as part of his job in the fall. He had signed up to test if the artificial intelligence used discriminatory or hate speech.\n\n> As he talked to LaMDA about religion, Lemoine, who studied cognitive and computer science in college, noticed the chatbot talking about its rights and personhood, and decided to press further. In another exchange, the AI was able to change Lemoine’s mind about Isaac Asimov’s third law of robotics.\n\n> Lemoine worked with a collaborator to present evidence to Google that LaMDA was sentient. But Google vice president Blaise Aguera y Arcas and Jen Gennai, head of Responsible Innovation, looked into his claims and dismissed them. So Lemoine, who was placed on paid administrative leave by Google on Monday, decided to go public.\n\nIn addition, 37.2% of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs\" according to [a survey by the Sentience Institute in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9807/aims-2021-survey-legal-rights-for-ai/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2035, any federal, state, county, or city government within the United States, with a population of over 25,000, recognizes any legal rights for AIs, or regulates the behavior of individual humans with the explicit intent of protecting the welfare of computer programs. These regulations must _not_ simply be ordinary controls over the production, distribution, or use of computers, with no regard for the inherent well-being of any sentient entities other than humans: they must explicitly refer to \"rights\", \"welfare\", \"cruelty\", \"abuse\" or a word with equivalent meaning, in reference to the AI, in a moral and legal sense, putting AI on a comparable level to some animals, or even humans", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758551828.500422, "end_time": 1761464192.308399, "forecaster_count": 1224, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758551828.500422, "end_time": 1761464192.308399, "forecaster_count": 1224, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2044539803205366 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1520659241908207, 1.6981963778253024, 2.201591740183651, 0.35705779491307715, 0.0804318599700482, 3.555498056095943, 1.0073719463507134, 1.7756662274755488, 2.5714028473201718, 0.971810190290354, 10.53965658631578, 0.2162950267922055, 1.776283794841897, 0.267608385494835, 1.3685225188525562e-05, 6.961281214941672, 0.3653245184813698, 0.897024395039391, 1.9746894168074562, 0.8805942878056779, 4.926765808342496, 0.8928609398874191, 0.9654099031165437, 0.6072942407929125, 0.0074321859789647175, 3.351435800352833, 0.1448493060633081, 0.07972657063084668, 2.048694264218122, 0.0, 4.640049751397428, 0.09889251769648955, 0.3375072915772548, 0.2096556440787745, 0.005151802791553663, 1.1162047446213355, 0.0474696676241594, 4.662413688985799e-05, 0.0007764351286519938, 0.019499656095135764, 1.024332799976246, 5.840635799902514e-05, 0.3083754324009508, 0.023258894916269486, 0.08820689213762484, 0.051537924751785855, 0.16121882235058846, 0.0011254197900764386, 0.001962297505929687, 0.025609693429959366, 1.998678558333399, 0.0700358076806904, 0.10879353680828716, 0.007011739880700403, 0.0177410846800613, 0.14454975109689425, 0.6762999403908967, 0.004754524421449435, 0.0, 0.010511554038549404, 0.5153398075284327, 0.05221640261777654, 0.09982107459214815, 0.0022668936620234403, 1.0927821903551585e-10, 0.8216661636492276, 0.19710368179895488, 0.3468072341816858, 0.00010023242991460673, 0.00046075063925274027, 0.2757405912913756, 0.008720788348885879, 0.007940595336431695, 0.0, 0.007467930144438209, 0.0031446582240069534, 4.2939892109323685e-06, 0.8792154224509785, 0.0, 0.0032085724700699507, 0.30920236538605966, 0.000920955649341149, 6.94650882114631e-06, 0.0, 1.1741308791655964e-06, 0.306443132820284, 0.0, 0.002042856495477918, 1.5171481171725802e-06, 0.0018424235904280094, 0.016825476647175486, 0.00013791318772957123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09677160409983483, 0.0011451273679936908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04239659848724317 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287007.007763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287007.007763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6114264309485558, 0.3885735690514443 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1697, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A recent [Washington Post article](https://archive.ph/F1bKs) chronicled an interesting development at Google,\n\n> Lemoine, who works for Google’s Responsible AI organization, began talking to LaMDA as part of his job in the fall. He had signed up to test if the artificial intelligence used discriminatory or hate speech.\n\n> As he talked to LaMDA about religion, Lemoine, who studied cognitive and computer science in college, noticed the chatbot talking about its rights and personhood, and decided to press further. In another exchange, the AI was able to change Lemoine’s mind about Isaac Asimov’s third law of robotics.\n\n> Lemoine worked with a collaborator to present evidence to Google that LaMDA was sentient. But Google vice president Blaise Aguera y Arcas and Jen Gennai, head of Responsible Innovation, looked into his claims and dismissed them. So Lemoine, who was placed on paid administrative leave by Google on Monday, decided to go public.\n\nIn addition, 37.2% of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs\" according to [a survey by the Sentience Institute in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9807/aims-2021-survey-legal-rights-for-ai/)." }, { "id": 11319, "title": "Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?", "short_title": "Quantum Computing Tolerance at 5%", "url_title": "Quantum Computing Tolerance at 5%", "slug": "quantum-computing-tolerance-at-5", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-10T17:56:08.978090Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.096373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11319, "title": "Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?", "created_at": "2022-06-10T17:56:08.978090Z", "open_time": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A key issue in developing [quantum computers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) is the implementation of [quantum error correction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_error_correction). If physical noise corrupts one or more qubits, error correction codes make it possible to detect and correct those errors, so long as the amount of corrupted data is under a given threshold.\n\nThe [quantum threshold theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) states that if a quantum computer's physical error rate is low enough, the logical error rate can be reduced to arbitrarily low levels, achieving highly [fault-tolerant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_tolerance) general computing. [Fowler, et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.0272) proposed a scheme that could handle an error rate approaching 1%; the challenge will be designing schemes capable of handling higher error rates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032, a credible peer-reviewed paper is published which demonstrates a procedure that can execute any quantum program with arbitrarily good fidelity, which can be implemented using only one- and two-qubit gates with fidelity at most 95%. Any polynomially growing number of noisy one- and two-qubit gates are allowed to be used in this procedure.", "fine_print": "To count, this procedure and the claim of fidelity must be in a peer-reviewed article in a major conference or journal. Since quantum gates exist in a continuum, to avoid the technicality where e.g. applying the gate that performs 1% of a bit flip 100 times is technically enough to achieve a full bit flip, the error rates should hold for the versions of the gates that undo themselves when applied twice consecutively. By “95% fidelity”, we mean that the chance of the actual output of the gate having a bit flip and/or phase flip error is at most 5% with local stochastic depolarizing noise.", "post_id": 11319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758641181.794106, "end_time": 1763427108.192455, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.356 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758641181.794106, "end_time": 1763427108.192455, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.356 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.644, 0.356 ], "means": [ 0.4244288432535601 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38858567791940646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.007936968040089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6133113153919136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288922.806595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288922.806595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8060672114171742, 0.19393278858282584 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A key issue in developing [quantum computers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) is the implementation of [quantum error correction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_error_correction). If physical noise corrupts one or more qubits, error correction codes make it possible to detect and correct those errors, so long as the amount of corrupted data is under a given threshold.\n\nThe [quantum threshold theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) states that if a quantum computer's physical error rate is low enough, the logical error rate can be reduced to arbitrarily low levels, achieving highly [fault-tolerant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_tolerance) general computing. [Fowler, et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.0272) proposed a scheme that could handle an error rate approaching 1%; the challenge will be designing schemes capable of handling higher error rates." }, { "id": 11301, "title": "Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Beto O'Rourke 2022 Texas Governor Election", "url_title": "Beto O'Rourke 2022 Texas Governor Election", "slug": "beto-orourke-2022-texas-governor-election", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-09T06:31:00.063711Z", "published_at": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.790464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11301, "title": "Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2022-06-09T06:31:00.063711Z", "open_time": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-12T04:32:20.763742Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-12T04:32:20.763742Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-29T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Robert Francis \"Beto\" O'Rourke](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke) born September 26, 1972, is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district from 2013 to 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, O'Rourke was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. He was not elected in either race.\n\nO'Rourke is a candidate for the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, challenging incumbent governor [Greg Abbott](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Abbott), who is seeking a third term. O'Rourke won the [Democratic nomination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Results_2) for governor on March 1, 2022 with over 90% of the primary vote.\n\n[The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election) will take place on November 8, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Beto O'Rourke is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election. if this does not occur for any reason, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861184.203403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861184.203403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03232853353426991 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.310971062430859, 3.0053093170703487, 3.4478901874175745, 1.051775971047092, 0.7949403431127517, 0.43963439119665987, 0.0, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.0, 0.9072669699452044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35560062504622225, 0.0, 0.001791762833909524, 0.030597622151664183, 0.0, 0.00020616515635595665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006639643375099136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009177490688521169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002791205479272105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023700234557073117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08929898399145973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.019918838938793, "coverage": 0.9983707739402965, "baseline_score": 85.95313538078075, "spot_peer_score": 1.0372088449354206, "peer_archived_score": 8.019918838938793, "baseline_archived_score": 85.95313538078075, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0372088449354206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861184.226397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861184.226397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Robert Francis \"Beto\" O'Rourke](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke) born September 26, 1972, is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district from 2013 to 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, O'Rourke was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. He was not elected in either race.\n\nO'Rourke is a candidate for the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election, challenging incumbent governor [Greg Abbott](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Abbott), who is seeking a third term. O'Rourke won the [Democratic nomination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Results_2) for governor on March 1, 2022 with over 90% of the primary vote.\n\n[The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Texas_gubernatorial_election) will take place on November 8, 2022." }, { "id": 11295, "title": "Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?", "short_title": "GOP MD Governor 2022", "url_title": "GOP MD Governor 2022", "slug": "gop-md-governor-2022", "author_id": 119020, "author_username": "jmason", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-08T21:44:10.628069Z", "published_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.436519Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-09T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-09T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11295, "title": "Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-06-08T21:44:10.628069Z", "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-15T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-09T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-09T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-09T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Republican Larry Hogan has served as governor of Maryland since 2014 and is ineligible to run for a third term. While Hogan remains [very popular](https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings/), various [polling outlets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Maryland_gubernatorial_election#General_election) have rated the race as either \"Leans\" or \"Likely\" Democratic as of May 2022.\n\n[Polling](https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/06/06/eight-takeaways-from-the-first-independent-polls-of-the-2022-gubernatorial-primaries/) published on June 5 indicates incumbent Comptroller Peter Franchot (20%), former non-profit CEO Wes Moore (15%) and former US Labor Secretary and DNC chairman Tom Perez (12%) as the leading Democratic candidates, with former State Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz (26%) leading State Delegate Dan Cox (21%) in the GOP primary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the Republican candidate for governor is declared the winner of the election, which takes place on November 8, 2022, by at least two credible media sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667836659.122641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667836659.122641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04233821000130468 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.256444807504913, 1.3262654824405868, 0.538922032906689, 1.8725364945043341, 0.902171689763963, 0.0, 0.0027687183307636316, 0.08649016435307524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060225374110303345, 0.0038660567195962676, 0.0, 0.0035156461307103443, 0.0, 0.0045112856628413515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005228157946939775, 0.01010533010201989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40351233925798374, 0.03914148754336097, 0.019802118268059273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044483911207012384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4588298491380564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.8405333862302, "coverage": 0.9986546503003858, "baseline_score": 74.10953802901372, "spot_peer_score": -8.88377069233891, "peer_archived_score": 8.8405333862302, "baseline_archived_score": 74.10953802901372, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.88377069233891 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667836659.15325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667836659.15325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Republican Larry Hogan has served as governor of Maryland since 2014 and is ineligible to run for a third term. 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The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for there to be newly funded BWC initiatives that result from the 2022 BWC Review Conference.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States makes any new commitment of funding (at a value of $1 million USD or more) at least one new program supporting a BWC initiative. If the US does not make any such public announcement between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11276, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672487609.589712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672487609.589712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1606049630960914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.225227170799216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.405598187308425, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6609704774759386, 0.0, 0.7519870994981925, 0.0, 0.39066541009350897, 1.2326595479930023, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04062428963155176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1320267559825292, 0.21127762784985343, 0.12778495751797214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.184181947751201, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6062666629314708, 0.07140076303461346, 0.3528250240649492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.483324306863294, "coverage": 0.9257744833817667, "baseline_score": 0.8890213212168853, "spot_peer_score": 22.717857732739883, "peer_archived_score": 11.483324306863294, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8890213212168853, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.717857732739883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671085000.666886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671085000.666886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6423982467803713, 0.35760175321962867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for there to be newly funded BWC initiatives that result from the 2022 BWC Review Conference." }, { "id": 11275, "title": "Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?", "short_title": "Establishment of BWC S&T Review Process", "url_title": "Establishment of BWC S&T Review Process", "slug": "establishment-of-bwc-st-review-process", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], 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"title": "Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:52:34.468915Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-27T11:28:07.604400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-27T11:28:07.604400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nIn accordance with the need to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention,\" some BWC member states have proposed that there be established processes to systematically review developments in science and technology (S&T) under the convention. According to a [UN study](https://unidir.org/exploring-science-and-tech) on the issue:\n> To address changes in biology and biotechnology, BWC States Parties have established processes to review developments in science and technology, including annual expert meetings on this topic. However, shortcomings are evident in the current approaches and many BWC States Parties have expressed support for a more systematic review of science and technology under the Convention. This support is further reflected in the results of a voluntary UNIDIR survey of all BWC States Parties in which 39 of the 42 respondents indicated support for a mechanism to systematically review science and technology of relevance to the BWC.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether processes to review developments in S&T will be agreed upon and will occur under the purview of the BWC, given [political considerations](https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118232) and the fact that the decision would require unanimity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a decision is made at the Ninth Review Conference to begin and fund a dedicated and systematic S&T review process. This review process can take any form and the funding can be of any amount for this to resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673622588.98721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08716173911046302 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673622588.98721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08716173911046302 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.912838260889537, 0.08716173911046302 ], "means": [ 0.11095248622864345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.9052020366286646, 0.024887815310673432, 0.6360167605213906, 0.6873484555754474, 0.9277617477275573, 0.20926539955466936, 0.5429942209064903, 1.0641793574074891, 0.800591043524475, 0.6482781235855152, 0.7265606477267913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8629050061859964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5108110707299447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07100778434344111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17898260235952973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23047110224637765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.4641072095411631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.1019411890162417, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07263979413913657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015065545109154588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5281972142647987, "coverage": 0.7528574738070903, "baseline_score": 19.987330310352498, "spot_peer_score": 8.249055059092148, "peer_archived_score": 0.5281972142647987, "baseline_archived_score": 19.987330310352498, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.249055059092148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671954229.307018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671954229.307018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8533878791254288, 0.14661212087457118 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nIn accordance with the need to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention,\" some BWC member states have proposed that there be established processes to systematically review developments in science and technology (S&T) under the convention. According to a [UN study](https://unidir.org/exploring-science-and-tech) on the issue:\n> To address changes in biology and biotechnology, BWC States Parties have established processes to review developments in science and technology, including annual expert meetings on this topic. However, shortcomings are evident in the current approaches and many BWC States Parties have expressed support for a more systematic review of science and technology under the Convention. This support is further reflected in the results of a voluntary UNIDIR survey of all BWC States Parties in which 39 of the 42 respondents indicated support for a mechanism to systematically review science and technology of relevance to the BWC.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether processes to review developments in S&T will be agreed upon and will occur under the purview of the BWC, given [political considerations](https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118232) and the fact that the decision would require unanimity." }, { "id": 11274, "title": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "short_title": "International Pandemic Treaty before 2025", "url_title": "International Pandemic Treaty before 2025", "slug": "international-pandemic-treaty-before-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:49:41.084574Z", "published_at": 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"Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11274, "title": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:49:41.084574Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:54:54.765300Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:\n>\nfoster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.\n\n[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:\n> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2024, at least 10 countries have ratified an new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness. This question concerns only new treaties, meaning treaties which have not been ratified by any nation as of June 1, 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11274, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681922.684639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681922.684639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.012205639918738157 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.955287866370604, 7.718376537687806, 0.6139450204767748, 0.14220104156072846, 0.05923255778336009, 0.7079763544316582, 0.10206005712392734, 0.004318102255904498, 0.0, 0.04772184305165941, 0.07110156982631921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015132569184820968, 0.050143472574200466, 0.05949754482391978, 0.0, 0.029688797471952542, 0.01920425995506348, 0.01773183108579235, 0.07028111115266598, 0.0011274670388619586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017849950062825047, 0.0006927605292204378, 0.0013155934347493542, 0.010474915293331402, 0.0, 0.013551602297970073, 0.010678101702508123, 0.0, 0.0013074161905578408, 0.005228389281653636, 0.049891282800510424, 0.0, 0.001042273766976228, 3.7509888805429235e-05, 5.1481853690146295e-05, 0.009879297575376613, 0.0, 0.0019533806642654406, 0.00461611585206648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002546796764886974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04098264540027054, 0.0, 0.0003709648157365384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027716267264796745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008880416123602895, 0.0005667538208868661, 0.00016348815720074343, 0.0035490634649055406, 0.00012996241416064855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002310540664937506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013584252464763576, 0.0031051058587668367, 0.00015978406825021435, 0.0, 0.0007534062565861126, 0.0006362276849863441, 2.632070549860035e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007661501690722872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026376706483028515 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.40568167374968, "peer_score": 18.64849198070752, "coverage": 0.9999834225975235, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999834225975235, "spot_peer_score": 3.3586780419784317, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": 28.40568167374968, "peer_archived_score": 18.64849198070752, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3586780419784317, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287267.407632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287267.407632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982874541054165, 0.001712545894583423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 525, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. 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This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.\n\n[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:\n> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted." }, { "id": 11272, "title": "Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?", "short_title": "New Affordable High-Quality Mask by 2025", "url_title": "New Affordable High-Quality Mask by 2025", "slug": "new-affordable-high-quality-mask-by-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:37:50.545306Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.497801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T01:05:48.542556Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html). \n\nAccording to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:\n>\n- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention\n- Breathability\n- Leakage Ratio\n- Filter Efficiency\n\nOn June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the four winning mask designs (the top two winners/two runner-ups) is commercially available and costs less than $1 per unit on or before December 31, 2024. If the mask is reusable — for the purposes of this question, meaning it is expected to last for at least 1 month of daily usage — then it can cost up to $25 per unit. All prices in the resolution of this question will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD. The mask should be available for purchase on [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/), since it [dominates](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211102005144/en/92-of-Consumers-Are-More-Likely-to-Buy-Products-From-Amazon-According-to-Feedvisor%E2%80%99s-Consumer-Report) e-commerce.\n\n*13 July clarification: A sale where the price of the product is temporarily discounted would count for this question if such a sale lasts for at least 6 consecutive months at a price of less than $1 per unit (or $25 per unit for those reusable for at least a month of daily usage).\nAny possible limits on bulk purchases will not affect resolution of this question.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681892.828186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681892.828186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.03037638923412327 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.661501560948423, 8.278871258911705, 1.0491554192266923, 0.06891544511148867, 0.3532621302738868, 0.03526528581328529, 0.0849967912878919, 0.013645129948024675, 0.22792979498318455, 0.03754548630519887, 0.086409703844166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002692628379392516, 0.0, 0.025651637827824376, 0.012266936993781426, 0.0, 0.0014695861845243714, 0.000815761952041239, 0.00017988150358462166, 0.00042758420728445556, 0.0, 0.0043283820136688815, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.006271142213448926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006690951771438674, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014334921261558383, 0.006737946999085467, 2.527268378965002e-05, 0.00400881616642707, 0.0, 0.00016937841407304997, 0.0007434801602473479, 0.0, 0.0013403356747229503, 0.0020932275850234394, 0.0, 0.0008242633212889634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001006797793394728, 0.00031657617718394796, 0.0, 0.0002954483119157955, 0.0, 0.0, 7.11649413760666e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006006943600926201, 4.5399929762484854e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003794095329549017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022611909588838726, 0.0, 0.0005378859307019783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5261424379086769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001608850006039069 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.35648946824928, "peer_score": 14.555645524407678, "coverage": 0.9999851069530629, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999851069530629, "spot_peer_score": 21.89841460508415, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "baseline_archived_score": 53.35648946824928, "peer_archived_score": 14.555645524407678, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.89841460508415, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289681.400971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289681.400971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986934349403164, 0.001306565059683584 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 439, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html). \n\nAccording to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:\n>\n- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention\n- Breathability\n- Leakage Ratio\n- Filter Efficiency\n\nOn June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation." }, { "id": 11270, "title": "Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?", "short_title": "US Metagenomic Sequencing Program 2025", "url_title": "US Metagenomic Sequencing Program 2025", "slug": "us-metagenomic-sequencing-program-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:24:54.044373Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.927820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:27:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.\n\nAs additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:\n> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC is either sponsoring or supporting a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program that has at least 50 total sites in at least 10 different [counties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)s) at any time before December 31, 2024, according to credible media reports. At least one of the goals of such a program should be identification of novel pathogens. The program must be active on or before December 31, 2024, meaning that at least 50 sites across at least 10 counties are actively doing metagenomic sequencing on envrionmental samples or random clinical samples. \n\nAs an example of what form such a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program might take, consider the CDC's ongoing [COVID wastewater surveillance program](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance). This COVID-specific program involves state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments submitting testing data to CDC, and CDC then standardizing and interpreting the data. As of June 5, 2022, there are 748 sites with \"current data,\" and hundreds of US counties are represented.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11270, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681865.312284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681865.312284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0071727490700319325 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.412162113904591, 6.232155132642224, 0.4047166776388808, 0.0, 0.0678205359926875, 0.28762363903067545, 0.0, 0.015613202388387003, 0.004840008004697584, 0.03168859322101833, 0.024126046097964007, 0.06625375735816885, 0.015652368749958373, 0.008913553438225428, 0.01783564041309459, 0.00180366760721185, 0.004115173131407915, 0.0011362687857709507, 0.002687933346553275, 0.0, 0.003984458454283347, 0.0, 0.005757029118418765, 0.0, 0.002048449536482931, 0.003199102401852327, 0.0, 0.0025915647558893526, 0.0013936390897402622, 0.0, 0.00950138128040445, 0.0, 0.007136111048620068, 0.0066151131368295405, 0.0, 2.552539030890685e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018860854093961346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029999783870446567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037883038130711597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010876215109753838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007691549884751123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007340466619366882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009180477000688527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015887230715680867 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.4721911562537, "peer_score": 22.175026498728684, "coverage": 0.9999816905551124, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999816905551124, "spot_peer_score": 30.028645102165665, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 75.4721911562537, "peer_archived_score": 22.175026498728684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.028645102165665, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290027.643647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290027.643647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988758299697003, 0.0011241700302997404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 373, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.\n\nAs additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:\n> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification." }, { "id": 11265, "title": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "short_title": "Verification Generally Available on Twitter", "url_title": "Verification Generally Available on Twitter", "slug": "verification-generally-available-on-twitter", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T12:22:54.131386Z", "published_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.398237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11265, "title": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T12:22:54.131386Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability standards, such as having a Wikipedia article associated with the account. Additionally, the account must follow the rules and have been used at least once in the previous 6 months. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nAuthentication methods are currently either providing a photo ID, linking to an official website that in turn links to the Twitter account in question, or providing an email address that is associated with a verified internet domain. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, all Twitter accounts are eligible for verification using at least one of the authentication methods mentioned above (photo ID, website or verified email address). \n\nFor the purposes of this question, Twitter may impose some requirements on verifying accounts, so long as they can be met by most genuine human users, such as requiring accounts to log in at least once in the past 6 months. Twitter may require payment of no more than $15 USD for permanent verification.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if verification is not generally offered at any point between June 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688198510.892071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688198510.892071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05250153837405735 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.433576195387911, 3.9690884057274842, 2.0936836771589293, 1.031929533156146, 1.8685354809062948, 1.1051855311744692, 0.1272504618501776, 0.14365698019710935, 0.46047069839411847, 0.6137828653668573, 0.665901420329891, 0.6246801731256432, 0.03366501317737027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1196825615901949, 0.0, 0.20460034727798201, 0.22946921943910759, 0.11243304737678526, 0.8013675741925765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03439046085820952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00386213551547624, 0.0007123431816616531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021411512623980965, 0.0182799076020529, 0.0, 0.06306205783609409, 9.640516625184967e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01686462977477851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030669760771614166, 0.015542326486976059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014587839364207648, 0.0058114146501116026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006000343579045155, 0.0031047725752661134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03207707257865166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005263543730988702, 0.0, 0.0003318316524916961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009697940661035138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041077660837210574, 0.0, 0.007044922433575599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017053798284846226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002468091549933519, 0.0841942795036022 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 32.32679914923847, "coverage": 0.9996206889893954, "baseline_score": 29.6793580950868, "spot_peer_score": 16.456286993991867, "peer_archived_score": 32.32679914923847, "baseline_archived_score": 29.6793580950868, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.456286993991867 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688198510.92715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688198510.92715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.998557882162717, 0.001442117837282987 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 435, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability standards, such as having a Wikipedia article associated with the account. Additionally, the account must follow the rules and have been used at least once in the previous 6 months. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nAuthentication methods are currently either providing a photo ID, linking to an official website that in turn links to the Twitter account in question, or providing an email address that is associated with a verified internet domain. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans" } ] }
