Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3700
{ "count": 6375, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3680", "results": [ { "id": 16409, "title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?", "short_title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguay election?", "url_title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguay election?", "slug": "will-santiago-pena-win-the-paraguay-election", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-20T19:17:04.538806Z", "published_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.847151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T08:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T08:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16409, "title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?", "created_at": "2023-04-20T19:17:04.538806Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-22T03:42:19.476516Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-22T03:42:19.476516Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T08:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T08:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-01T08:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 30th, Paraguayan citizens head to the polls to elect their next president with ripples likely to be felt around the world.\n\nLeading candidate, Santiago Peña, represents the Colorado Party, which has been in power for much of the last century, including the current President Mario Abdo Benítez. Of global note, this party supports Taiwan's independence, as one of only [13 formal diplomatic allies.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/taiwan-in-the-hot-seat-during-paraguay-presidential-elections)\n\nHowever, leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, of the more centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) has said, \"...he will break ties with Taiwan if elected and recognize the People’s Republic of China instead.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** on the basis of an official election result published by a credible news source or government agency that clearly states that Santiago Peña has been declared the winner and president of Paraguay.\n\nIf the election is significantly postponed (held after May 1, 2023 or later) or otherwise cancelled, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682790466.128076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682790466.128076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5666071129825196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3645648957485751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.636212756914152, 0.2952096546785722, 0.024857065371296127, 0.12168712976649625, 0.017175512748169287, 0.3119370874614128, 0.0, 0.0, 1.050579864326534, 0.0, 0.0865557529401609, 0.2505638892535192, 1.1419491877046233, 0.14409911274774573, 1.8232821704663413, 0.6402244654560508, 0.5116888389472106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1958661152464525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019501694237860755, 0.0, 1.8957964879524905, 0.07095202666684558, 0.6788062773671363, 0.7923431060164742, 0.0, 0.45170010737853167, 0.04791750235716968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5906778299829472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.982103490494643, "coverage": 0.9999705494573299, "baseline_score": 10.41402274809903, "spot_peer_score": 6.736947856973913, "peer_archived_score": 7.982103490494643, "baseline_archived_score": 10.41402274809903, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.736947856973913 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682790466.144495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682790466.144495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4906622548592463, 0.5093377451407537 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 30th, Paraguayan citizens head to the polls to elect their next president with ripples likely to be felt around the world.\n\nLeading candidate, Santiago Peña, represents the Colorado Party, which has been in power for much of the last century, including the current President Mario Abdo Benítez. Of global note, this party supports Taiwan's independence, as one of only [13 formal diplomatic allies.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/taiwan-in-the-hot-seat-during-paraguay-presidential-elections)\n\nHowever, leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, of the more centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) has said, \"...he will break ties with Taiwan if elected and recognize the People’s Republic of China instead.\"" }, { "id": 16404, "title": "Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?", "short_title": "Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency", "url_title": "Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency", "slug": "yuan-a-top-3-global-currency", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-20T14:47:21.066684Z", "published_at": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T06:37:53.034566Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16404, "title": "Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-04-20T14:47:21.066684Z", "open_time": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-12T23:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-12T23:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.\n\nOne way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves on the basis of SWIFT’s [RMB Tracker](https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre). The RMB Tracker is a monthly report that provides statistics on the progress of the Chinese currency, Renminbi (RMB). \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if CNY is ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB’s share as a global payments currency’ for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if CNY is not ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB’s share as a global payments currency’ for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029.\n\nIf SWIFT ceases publication of the RMB Tracker, a substitute measure of global payments by currency may be used. If no straightforward data is easily available, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "The terms \"Renminbi\" and \"Chinese Yuan\" are often used interchangeably, but they refer to slightly different aspects of China's currency:\n\nRenminbi (RMB): This term means \"the people's currency\" in Chinese and is the official name of the Chinese currency. It is used to denote the entire Chinese currency system.\n\nChinese Yuan (CNY): The yuan is the unit of account of the Renminbi. It is the primary denomination used in daily transactions and serves a similar function as the \"dollar\" in the United States. The symbol for the Chinese Yuan is \"¥.\"\n\nIn summary, Renminbi refers to the entire Chinese currency system, while the Chinese Yuan is the specific unit of the currency used in daily transactions.", "post_id": 16404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762936586.801219, "end_time": 1763928199.457142, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762936586.801219, "end_time": 1763928199.457142, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3974486781191883 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11912783388937448, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.07431406888622644, 0.9183948249798383, 0.3340223744412083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.4733816237545203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.486787614736767, 0.9694283249166991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7173118741727951, 1.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01841608521486116, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0444107964952802 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286976.061265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286976.061265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7685051882087184, 0.23149481179128167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.\n\nOne way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%)." }, { "id": 16327, "title": "Will Israel still be rated \"Free\" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?", "short_title": "Israel's Rating in Freedom in the World 2024", "url_title": "Israel's Rating in Freedom in the World 2024", "slug": "israels-rating-in-freedom-in-the-world-2024", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-19T18:14:35.279275Z", "published_at": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.932510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16327, "title": "Will Israel still be rated \"Free\" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T18:14:35.279275Z", "open_time": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-21T15:47:24.990622Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-21T15:47:24.990622Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.\n\nEach country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free. \n\nIsrael has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the [latest report](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf), that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making [Israel rated as Free](https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023) . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.\n\nIsrael’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.\n\nIn November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. \nIn January 2023 the government started legislating a [judicial reform](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871), that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.\n\nIn late March 2023, [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/27/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-protests-intl/index.html) to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.\n\nThe attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.\n\nMore information about the [reform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) and [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests) can be found on Wikipedia.", "resolution_criteria": "Questions resolves as \"Yes\" if in the 2024 edition of Freedom in the World Report, covering the year 2023, Israel's rating will remain \"Free\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16327, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704096052.440642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704096052.440642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7496756871661375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42263576739826525, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.35791618639528056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 1.0095518832962735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2944786576332015, 0.0, 1.3231732224227755, 0.05390754280524653, 0.12458556497060898, 1.4214649747974195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2138071744170765, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0248437582050838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.867160865997867, "coverage": 0.9999779343239503, "baseline_score": 33.37520869790321, "spot_peer_score": -5.999480952970741, "peer_archived_score": 16.867160865997867, "baseline_archived_score": 33.37520869790321, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.999480952970741 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704096052.461494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704096052.461494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2590787316208092, 0.7409212683791908 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.\n\nEach country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free. \n\nIsrael has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the [latest report](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf), that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making [Israel rated as Free](https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023) . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.\n\nIsrael’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.\n\nIn November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. \nIn January 2023 the government started legislating a [judicial reform](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871), that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.\n\nIn late March 2023, [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/27/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-protests-intl/index.html) to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.\n\nThe attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.\n\nMore information about the [reform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) and [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests) can be found on Wikipedia." }, { "id": 16179, "title": "Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Transformers Still SoTA in 2027?", "url_title": "Transformers Still SoTA in 2027?", "slug": "transformers-still-sota-in-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109610, "username": "elifland" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-19T12:49:52.085428Z", "published_at": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T03:49:47.645366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16179, "title": "Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T12:49:52.085428Z", "open_time": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early March 2022, a bet was [announced](https://twitter.com/srush_nlp/status/1499157715054120969) between Sasha Rush, an Associate Professor at Cornell Tech, and Jonathan Frankle, Chief Scientist at a machine learning startup. The bet is interesting for getting a better understanding of the future trajectory of AI development; to the extent a shift from transformers as the dominant paradigm is more or less likely, different alignment strategies might be more or less promising. \n\nMore information regarding the bet can be found at [http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/](http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/).", "resolution_criteria": "Sasha Rush and Jonathan Frankle have a public bet on this proposition: \n\n>On January 1, 2027, a [Transformer-like](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762) model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmarked tasks in natural language processing.\n\nFor the motion is Frankle, and against the motion is Rush.\n\nThe question will resolve positively if Rush concedes the bet and negatively if Frankle concedes. \n\nIf neither side concedes before April 1, 2027, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "If Rush and Frankle cancel their bet or significantly alter its criteria, the question may be annulled.", "post_id": 16179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761305809.307528, "end_time": 1766917802.207412, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761305809.307528, "end_time": 1766917802.207412, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9420842063285826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 1.445768945893076 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288845.987732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288845.987732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34569257225603034, 0.6543074277439697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early March 2022, a bet was [announced](https://twitter.com/srush_nlp/status/1499157715054120969) between Sasha Rush, an Associate Professor at Cornell Tech, and Jonathan Frankle, Chief Scientist at a machine learning startup. The bet is interesting for getting a better understanding of the future trajectory of AI development; to the extent a shift from transformers as the dominant paradigm is more or less likely, different alignment strategies might be more or less promising. \n\nMore information regarding the bet can be found at [http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/](http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/)." }, { "id": 16168, "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?", "short_title": "Dianne Feinstein resignation", "url_title": "Dianne Feinstein resignation", "slug": "dianne-feinstein-resignation", "author_id": 141875, "author_username": "onefuture", "coauthors": [ { "id": 126097, "username": "jokerwing" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-19T00:14:18.193255Z", "published_at": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.711642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16168, "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T00:14:18.193255Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-23T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-23T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992. \n\nDespite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A%20Will%20Not%20Run%20for,United%20States%20Senator%20for%20California), recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has [raised concerns](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/13/23681758/dianne-feinstein-calls-to-resign-age-judges) about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate. \n\nAs many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had [significant implications](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/biden-judges-senate-blue-slips-absences/index.html) on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges. \n\nIn the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor.", "resolution_criteria": "If Senator Feinstein resigns before the end of her current term, this question will resolve **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Feinstein must resign for a **Yes** resolution. If Senator Feinstein leaves office for another reason, that will not be sufficient for the question to resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 16168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695999583.491222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695999583.491222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.2702348507544473 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.9973635476751577, 3.9598291914374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01420841581464255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44026688641862316, 0.0, 0.03961264331825656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003399429418515302, 0.012080067640697419, 0.20489726080997955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08926029747599007, 0.0, 0.041854423028354265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40375956833042065, 0.0, 0.10860410592794534, 0.24263464463183257, 0.0, 0.05265139568081303, 0.525512280207765, 0.2520238702234319, 0.0, 0.4570562060943923, 0.08860449871981593, 0.0, 0.07277615171478852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03283702835426392, 0.0, 0.1721577213751192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7320692676052394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.0, 0.45617316702529614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053980521873020895, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.3631009988528126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3812827334661812, "coverage": 0.2582976390379076, "baseline_score": -17.66682342258012, "spot_peer_score": 34.32183115063036, "peer_archived_score": 2.3812827334661812, "baseline_archived_score": -17.66682342258012, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.32183115063036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695887408.981612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695887408.981612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3973370937828805, 0.6026629062171195 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992. \n\nDespite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A%20Will%20Not%20Run%20for,United%20States%20Senator%20for%20California), recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has [raised concerns](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/13/23681758/dianne-feinstein-calls-to-resign-age-judges) about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate. \n\nAs many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had [significant implications](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/biden-judges-senate-blue-slips-absences/index.html) on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges. \n\nIn the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor." }, { "id": 16164, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "short_title": "Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?", "url_title": "Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?", "slug": "fatality-due-to-nuclear-detonation-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T23:51:04.827509Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.841533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16164, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T23:51:04.827509Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-21T08:07:23.405900Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-21T08:07:23.405900Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:14.310380Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one fatality due to a nuclear detonation (excluding [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion)) before January 1, 2025. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports.\n\nAny qualifying nuclear detonation must occur less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").", "post_id": 16164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654923.653208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654923.653208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.029726555616232723 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.624675896373702, 1.5299673087622858, 0.338266843588547, 0.6519230825691662, 0.3108103300250275, 0.2107719493068028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1494220410952148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5089300594347316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.0258872570968, "peer_score": 9.857537086414343, "coverage": 0.9999597470328824, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999597470328824, "spot_peer_score": 8.129999582827516, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 96.0258872570968, "peer_archived_score": 9.857537086414343, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.129999582827516, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287726.382741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287726.382741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990355734109917, 0.0009644265890083568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 16157, "title": "Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?", "short_title": "Musk LLM Release before 2024?", "url_title": "Musk LLM Release before 2024?", "slug": "musk-llm-release-before-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T22:12:34.635619Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.939374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 199, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16157, "title": "Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T22:12:34.635619Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T19:53:07.903000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T19:53:07.903000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to build an AI product.\n\nIn an interview with [Fox News' Tucker Carlson](https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-sits-down-tucker-carlson-exclusive-two-part-interview-event), Musk said:\n\n> AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.\n\nMusk was also a signatory of the [Future of Life Institute's open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/), published March 22, 2023, which stated that \"AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity\", calling for a 6-month pause on training larger AI models than [GPT-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an AI lab which receives funding from Elon Musk releases a large language model at any time between April 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024. A model will be considered \"released\" if a general member of the public can access the model, either though a paid subscription, a waitlist, or through immediate free access. The model may be accessed through a web interface, an API, or by accessing its open source code. There are no requirements on the architecture, parameter count, or estimated training cost of the model; a model will qualify if responds to natural language text with natural language text.\n\nThere are no requirements on the amount of funding Musk provides to the AI lab, so long as this information is public and not disputed by either Musk or the AI lab. This question will exclude all of the following labs (as well as any of their partners and subsidiaries) regardless of whether they receive any funding by Elon Musk:\n\n* [OpenAI](https://openai.com/)\n* [DeepMind](https://www.deepmind.com/) / [Google Brain](https://research.google/teams/brain/)\n* [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/)\n* [Meta AI / Facebook AI Research](https://ai.facebook.com/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702009559.723501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702009559.723501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9615702115871136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0005447013796136244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010025872189661303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005349865746531424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004171016256221588, 0.0, 0.0006121507102644883, 4.614922666941518e-05, 0.00448610013232975, 0.005727569154080072, 0.0, 0.0027388249879830746, 0.0, 0.005118084078716098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013917206042582432, 0.0015170875407282188, 0.004433907140156952, 0.008862694331097425, 0.0, 0.013622219242667342, 4.5027955005351724e-05, 0.0, 0.0027154202705135188, 0.0061643726906911575, 8.837747852704062e-05, 0.011526745840409485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020923194441417243, 0.3307115022293911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.387605785471575e-05, 0.00691465990466744, 0.0017280368436842332, 0.0, 0.004068785558524585, 0.0018554125821585064, 0.007600996801755409, 0.0, 0.0008549425470316368, 0.0, 0.0011612401486004924, 0.0013307309791962467, 0.0, 2.7503846118902807e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004883158687143817, 0.00014845430499630315, 0.0008799300275506664, 0.0, 0.0012426146972670342, 0.006875382719947604, 0.32615299128119585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003553803346794277, 0.0030038902389366772, 0.06986343735005576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002498623741148246, 0.011329727648749018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005264798728301011, 0.012779133483724387, 0.5765077138945013, 0.6492472601387979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0134499887611997, 0.4316082986057109, 0.01488738538524845, 0.022862098631590368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2357599975551497, 0.0, 0.09253096002890907, 0.06238345891801686, 0.0, 0.8915485897762465, 0.24892827778162904, 1.3966998307191851, 3.3762909380732573, 17.831552885710412 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.688851115934504, "coverage": 0.9078423786103851, "baseline_score": -12.064616992543028, "spot_peer_score": 38.087428073704345, "peer_archived_score": 17.688851115934504, "baseline_archived_score": -12.064616992543028, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.087428073704345 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701848701.91667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701848701.91667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05595321402601261, 0.9440467859739874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 664, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to build an AI product.\n\nIn an interview with [Fox News' Tucker Carlson](https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-sits-down-tucker-carlson-exclusive-two-part-interview-event), Musk said:\n\n> AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.\n\nMusk was also a signatory of the [Future of Life Institute's open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/), published March 22, 2023, which stated that \"AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity\", calling for a 6-month pause on training larger AI models than [GPT-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4)." }, { "id": 16033, "title": "Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?", "short_title": "Jonesboro Repeat Disc Golf Champions?", "url_title": "Jonesboro Repeat Disc Golf Champions?", "slug": "jonesboro-repeat-disc-golf-champions", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 128380, "username": "OldJohnL" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-18T19:12:13.418302Z", "published_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.688699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T16:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, 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The [Disc Golf Network](https://www.discgolfnetwork.com/jonesboro-open/) describes it as, \"...one of the longest, most challenging courses on tour. Highlighting huge, mature trees and the rolling hills of Jonesboro, Arkansas, the Jonesboro Open has become a favorite of many touring professionals.\" \n\nKristin Tattar and Calvin Heimburg won the Jonesboro Open [last year](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners).\n\nSo far this year, in FPO, Kristin Tattar has been dominant; ranking first in UDisc World and Statmando Multiview combined rankings. \n\nIn MPO, Calvin Heimburg ranks first in the Statmando multiview combined rankings, while Gannon Buhr, who rose to the top UDisc World rank after last weekend's tournament, [still considers Calvin to be the top player right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRrCgbk1QH4&t…).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **yes** if either or both of Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg place first in the *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners)*.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682697530.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682697530.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6898438704234359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.09924199395337108, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5423217510343592, 0.32449805599287956, 0.08952255740626561, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.8614998454466418, 0.0, 0.7396417846986983, 1.7721022451904105, 0.11083038735431396, 1.0458999100804718, 0.01917969985736262, 0.539066693473018, 0.0, 0.7248669686195495, 0.13717490894663273, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27952068312565814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41094427890984186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08861704666596604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5907126539143274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7026925263566991 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1077891727166316, "coverage": 0.9999874638186561, "baseline_score": 52.909298254208075, "spot_peer_score": 1.0528703801297794, "peer_archived_score": 2.1077891727166316, "baseline_archived_score": 52.909298254208075, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0528703801297794 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682697530.495544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682697530.495544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38976694343440155, 0.6102330565655985 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Disc golf tournaments have emerged as a popular competitive sport, leading to an increase in the number and scale of [professional disc golf tournaments](https://www.dgpt.com/) worldwide. \n\nThe *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.dgpt.com/event/jonesboro-open-2023/)* runs from April 28-30th and attracts the best players in the sport. The [Disc Golf Network](https://www.discgolfnetwork.com/jonesboro-open/) describes it as, \"...one of the longest, most challenging courses on tour. Highlighting huge, mature trees and the rolling hills of Jonesboro, Arkansas, the Jonesboro Open has become a favorite of many touring professionals.\" \n\nKristin Tattar and Calvin Heimburg won the Jonesboro Open [last year](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners).\n\nSo far this year, in FPO, Kristin Tattar has been dominant; ranking first in UDisc World and Statmando Multiview combined rankings. \n\nIn MPO, Calvin Heimburg ranks first in the Statmando multiview combined rankings, while Gannon Buhr, who rose to the top UDisc World rank after last weekend's tournament, [still considers Calvin to be the top player right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRrCgbk1QH4&t…)." }, { "id": 16014, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system before 2033?", "short_title": "AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?", "url_title": "AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?", "slug": "ai-unauthorized-access-before-2033", 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system before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T13:40:19.442638Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-23T10:13:34.044485Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-23T10:13:34.044485Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2033 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does **not** resolve as **Yes** until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. Any of these types of access is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves as **Yes**.\n\n2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does **not** resolve as **Yes**, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.\n\n3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve as **Yes** if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).", "post_id": 16014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763578808.126543, "end_time": 1765670544.237, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763578808.126543, "end_time": 1765670544.237, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8626156848771225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5654288883961258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5896732630400193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13470784179981893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158319905362912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28848934677429744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4477794267527714, 0.007208347096498583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11853519332261696, 0.0, 0.068763771344373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14122700391584705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7891714012620212, 1.46420938210376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02529677777500878, 0.00551737719756209, 1.5509925355822205, 0.00013038389190179645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7447210984478942, 0.25931825211981235, 0.022136264414964038, 0.22048472472474742, 1.057430568162933, 1.81291608861, 0.8688465032341549, 1.4093718191500095, 1.1042798879954012, 5.161235608383231 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289569.434375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289569.434375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17794678902147965, 0.8220532109785204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 266, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance)." }, { "id": 16011, "title": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?", "short_title": "Star Trek and Star Wars crossover before 2060", "url_title": "Star Trek and Star Wars crossover before 2060", "slug": "star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T06:39:37.006710Z", "published_at": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:13.219990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16011, "title": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T06:39:37.006710Z", "open_time": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-24T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-24T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The mere presence of \"Star Trek\" and \"Star Wars\" in the title of a film or TV series will not be sufficient for resolving this question unless the stated criteria are met. However, Metaculus admins may consider such a title when determining if the primary focus of the production is the interaction between characters from the two franchises. Conversely, a production that meets the criteria does not necessarily need to have \"Star Trek\" and \"Star Wars\" in its title to resolve this question as **Yes.**\n\nFor purposes of this question, the threshold for interaction is five or more verbal exchanges total between the collective Star Wars characters and the collective Star Trek characters in a single film or episode.", "post_id": 16011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473382.638484, "end_time": 1784655424.562, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473382.638484, "end_time": 1784655424.562, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3075234671819719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6929169642170742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5642495998332693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3128907674394386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 1.5517079304053127, 0.6078097139925314, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3260268691378713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.023645968432686428, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.12974357522700947, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288173.819639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288173.819639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7682310500347073, 0.2317689499652927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced." }, { "id": 16009, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system by 2033?", "short_title": "AI unauthorized access by 2033", "url_title": "AI unauthorized access by 2033", "slug": "ai-unauthorized-access-by-2033", "author_id": 130060, "author_username": "zoehtwilliams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T03:00:20.090124Z", "published_at": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.723484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-18T11:28:06.045678Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16009, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system by 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T03:00:20.090124Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-20T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resolution_criteria": "The question posed here is “Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?”\n\nThis resolves positively if by Jan 1st, 2033 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does not resolve as positive until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. All resolve as positive if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve positively.", "fine_print": "1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves positive.\n\n2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does not resolve as positive, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.\n\n3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve positive if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).", "post_id": 16009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681824136.039735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681824136.039735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.8161806461824305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681824136.049746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681824136.049746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16987767250056263, 0.8301223274994374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance)." }, { "id": 16004, "title": "Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?", "short_title": "Bing on Samsung Phones", "url_title": "Bing on Samsung Phones", "slug": "bing-on-samsung-phones", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:41.039230Z", "published_at": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T05:19:38.939298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16004, "title": "Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:41.039230Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T06:22:39.751862Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T06:22:39.751862Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.\n\nOn February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing). On April 17, 2023, [it was reported](https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-galaxy-phones-tablets-bing-search-replace-google-default-search-engine/) that Samsung is considering switching to Bing on [Galaxy phones & tablets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy), reportedly because of Bing's AI features.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Samsung announces, before October 1 2023, that they will use Bing for at least one major Samsung Galaxy phone model.", "fine_print": "The announcement must be made by official Samsung PR. The switch to Bing must be on at least one of the Samsung Galaxy Z, S, A, M, or F series phones that is scheduled to be released within 1 year of the announcement. \n\nThe switch to Bing must be active in at least one phone sold in the United States to resolve **Yes**.\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** to the date of the announcement.", "post_id": 16004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696098197.87454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696098197.87454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.020386496381527657 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.892597084718778, 5.252809465720099, 0.9222722678115349, 0.0392982611038319, 0.09613451011160723, 0.21548448086567315, 0.5177254521460344, 0.0, 0.07741073985238849, 0.14851097121230117, 0.47711655387248203, 0.004140937860262326, 0.0, 0.02813465474885012, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013071448897969836, 0.0, 0.001629361525467336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057637412486455035, 0.22992132935388915, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023700234557073117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.420923002429978, "coverage": 0.9995794561694517, "baseline_score": 87.42803037525226, "spot_peer_score": 12.09280003108006, "peer_archived_score": 7.420923002429978, "baseline_archived_score": 87.42803037525226, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.09280003108006 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696098197.900553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696098197.900553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.\n\nOn February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing). On April 17, 2023, [it was reported](https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-galaxy-phones-tablets-bing-search-replace-google-default-search-engine/) that Samsung is considering switching to Bing on [Galaxy phones & tablets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy), reportedly because of Bing's AI features." }, { "id": 16003, "title": "Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Google Search with LLM responses", "url_title": "Google Search with LLM responses", "slug": "google-search-with-llm-responses", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:36.729302Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.289072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16003, "title": "Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:36.729302Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-20T15:54:23.921292Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-20T15:54:23.921292Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).\n\nOn March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-access-hands-on) to \"Bard\", a Large Language Model (LLM) similar to GPT-4. This service is distinct from both Google Search and the Google Assistant.\n\nOn April 17, [various tech outlets reported](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/17/23686108/google-ai-search-tools-magi-chatgpt-bing-samsung-deal) that Google will \"release new AI-powered search tools next month\". The New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html) \"the new features will be available exclusively in the US, and will be released initially to a maximum of one million users\".\n\nThis question asks whether (a) these AI-powered search tools will include responses from a Large Language Model, and (b) whether they are available to all US users by July 30, more than the <1M US users that Google is expecting by mid-May.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if most US users can reliably give Google queries that return LLM results before August 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "- If unclear whether the feature is available for all US users or for what subset of queries, Metaculus admins in the US will verify by seeing whether they can reliably trigger it themselves.\n\n- Whether Google \"returns LLM results\" will be determined by their nature, i.e. several sentences of text (possibly with links embedded throughout), as opposed to a current typical Google search result with a link on top and a fixed summary of the content below. A telltale sign will be if the interface is conversational.", "post_id": 16003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690743418.774518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690743418.774518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028341635020077707 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7671431310104566, 8.557699331734256, 3.4943850098546454, 2.0062249839592976, 0.775473947428053, 1.6175690234126736, 0.09685650394064907, 0.0, 0.20448457818171675, 0.0, 0.31108881172676395, 0.23134046883639756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047605839412529674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47086131558959615, 0.01748991790431776, 0.029170647094607483, 0.0199218711645118, 0.0034758932254840076, 0.0, 0.016373856132249905, 0.020332306072354284, 0.0, 0.006069583664008037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01671533256498449, 0.003196099858940859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022447286774336085, 0.006157807562723195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009616760983646014, 0.0, 0.0005320366584833881, 0.0, 0.0006735119318073969, 0.0, 0.00027525787441196156, 0.001555821826794338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014577056208057426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0058025982581776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022653219418194922, 0.002256050802275833, 0.0011639963892365942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002196193964088765, 9.979284736472126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001879519758167065, 0.0058250087885089044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004269759992666113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007057249750041771, 0.0016930095601669513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03010988308391113 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 40.73489157170296, "coverage": 0.9993125373941726, "baseline_score": -5.634890441686248, "spot_peer_score": 62.58031392723811, "peer_archived_score": 40.73489157170296, "baseline_archived_score": -5.634890441686248, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.58031392723811 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690743418.802256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690743418.802256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991688469121488, 0.0008311530878511901 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 372, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).\n\nOn March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-access-hands-on) to \"Bard\", a Large Language Model (LLM) similar to GPT-4. This service is distinct from both Google Search and the Google Assistant.\n\nOn April 17, [various tech outlets reported](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/17/23686108/google-ai-search-tools-magi-chatgpt-bing-samsung-deal) that Google will \"release new AI-powered search tools next month\". The New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html) \"the new features will be available exclusively in the US, and will be released initially to a maximum of one million users\".\n\nThis question asks whether (a) these AI-powered search tools will include responses from a Large Language Model, and (b) whether they are available to all US users by July 30, more than the <1M US users that Google is expecting by mid-May." }, { "id": 15973, "title": "Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?", "short_title": "Starship Liftoff before May 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Starship Liftoff before May 1, 2023?", "slug": "starship-liftoff-before-may-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T15:01:04.470542Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.966228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15973, "title": "Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T15:01:04.470542Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-18T00:06:53.521246Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-18T00:06:53.521246Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time) was scrubbed due to a [frozen valve](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/17/1170355237/watch-live-spacex-launch-starship-rocket). SpaceX CEO Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1647955325763592193):\n\n> Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retrying in a few days …", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power before 11:59pm ET on Sunday, April 30th.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681997842.685311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681997842.685311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8099778533056804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.012023428955703545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30254219701717905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0663340558700189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025392582078955267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32374300958340624, 0.0, 0.4644294413422424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.253864589656723, 0.4502118393382578, 0.3700306976932953, 0.035159820106228076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14652846223951663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2487069520536561, 0.6929567798100252, 0.0, 0.7626549279923052, 0.015220610711278141, 0.005367575538696657, 0.816920648473138, 0.0, 0.8352625781402054, 0.23171414716612537, 0.06084405894284453, 1.8602865396021917, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5056088899573001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22925142923916692, 1.0649249083081929, 0.10035857595838486, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9231239965202638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.173891993653193 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2819354803244427, "coverage": 0.20893797308345874, "baseline_score": 11.833815942050906, "spot_peer_score": 4.815652650531863, "peer_archived_score": 3.2819354803244427, "baseline_archived_score": 11.833815942050906, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.815652650531863 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681997325.625788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681997325.625788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22882736731301234, 0.7711726326869877 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time) was scrubbed due to a [frozen valve](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/17/1170355237/watch-live-spacex-launch-starship-rocket). SpaceX CEO Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1647955325763592193):\n\n> Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retrying in a few days …" }, { "id": 15965, "title": "Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?", "short_title": "Control of Sudan Usurped Before June 15?", "url_title": "Control of Sudan Usurped Before June 15?", "slug": "control-of-sudan-usurped-before-june-15", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-16T13:24:25.226897Z", "published_at": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.168388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15965, "title": "Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-16T13:24:25.226897Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), governed by a body known as the [Transitional Sovereignty Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_Sovereignty_Council) (TSC), whose control was reaffirmed by [another coup in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat). The TSC is led by [Abdel Fattah al-Burhan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan), Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The position of deputy chairman of the TSC is held by [Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemedti), generally referred to as \"Hemedti\", who is the commander of the RSF.\n\n[Unwilling to cede influence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf) amid negotiations over a deal to transition to a civilian government, the two military commanders are now engaged in a battle for control of Sudan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 15, 2023, credible sources report that Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has fled the country or is no longer the *de facto* leader of the Sudanese government. Qualifying reports might describe either another group or individual as the new *de facto* leader, or explicitly refer to al-Burhan as no longer being in power for any reason. If there is no such reporting before June 15, 2023, this question will resolve as **No**. Metaculus will assess the available reports to determine whether they satisfy these criteria, and may resolve as **Ambiguous** if it is unclear if the available reporting satisfies these criteria or if there are conflicting reports.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple credible sources before resolving.\n\n* Speculative reporting that does not indicate a change in status (for example, some previous reports have suggested that the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), [is the *de facto* leader of Sudan](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/18/warlord-wrecking-sudans-revolution/)) will not qualify, unless a change to the status quo was also reported.", "post_id": 15965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686776024.462034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686776024.462034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.012721558566497534 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.7050019513823, 2.438593499695444, 1.3052227299099757, 0.8205645819477725, 0.0, 0.339927454646054, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.10184620213798772, 0.0, 0.0490743809829292, 0.0509828498738131, 0.0, 0.02214264978065527, 0.0, 0.028223255188921492, 0.015248926387349431, 0.002996681779674101, 0.24484609769994412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.457894353898988, "coverage": 0.9997243752875156, "baseline_score": 89.01146989949834, "spot_peer_score": 0.772005475707302, "peer_archived_score": 3.457894353898988, "baseline_archived_score": 89.01146989949834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.772005475707302 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686776024.481392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686776024.481392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), governed by a body known as the [Transitional Sovereignty Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_Sovereignty_Council) (TSC), whose control was reaffirmed by [another coup in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat). The TSC is led by [Abdel Fattah al-Burhan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan), Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The position of deputy chairman of the TSC is held by [Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemedti), generally referred to as \"Hemedti\", who is the commander of the RSF.\n\n[Unwilling to cede influence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf) amid negotiations over a deal to transition to a civilian government, the two military commanders are now engaged in a battle for control of Sudan." }, { "id": 15964, "title": "Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?", "short_title": "Biggest Companies in 2050", "url_title": "Biggest Companies in 2050", "slug": "biggest-companies-in-2050", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-16T08:56:01.803725Z", "published_at": "2023-04-20T19:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T22:30:51.249223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-20T19:53:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-20T19:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15964, "title": "Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?", "created_at": "2023-04-16T08:56:01.803725Z", "open_time": "2023-04-20T19:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-22T19:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-22T19:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-14T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-14T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At Berkshire Hathaway's [2021 annual shareholders' meeting](https://buffett.cnbc.com/2021-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/), Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized that none of the companies on the 1989 list were present on the 2021 list at the time of the meeting. The 1989 list featured a heavy concentration of Japanese companies, reflecting the strong performance of the Japanese economy at that time. In contrast, the list from 2021 revealed a significant shift towards technology and innovation, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon dominating the rankings. Below is the list of the top 20 companies worldwide by market cap in 1989. \n\n| Ranking | Company | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|-------------------------|--------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Industrial Bank of Japan| 104.29 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 2 | Sumitomo Bank | 73.30 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 3 | Fuji Bank | 69.40 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 4 | Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank | 64.04 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 5 | Exxon Corp | 63.84 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | General Electric USA | 58.19 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | Tokyo Electric Power | 56.50 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 8 | IBM Corp | 55.66 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Toyota Motor Corp. | 53.25 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 10 | American Tel & Tel | 48.95 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Nomura Securities | 46.81 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 12 | Royal Dutch Petroleum | 41.00 B | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |\n| 13 | Philip Morris Cos | 38.58 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Nippon Steel | 36.59 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 15 | Tokai Bank | 35.35 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 16 | Mitsui Bank | 34.99 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 17 | Matsushita Elect Ind'l | 33.36 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 18 | Kansai Electric Power | 33.13 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 19 | Hitachi LTD | 32.21 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 20 | Merck & Co | 30.75 B | 🇺🇸 USA \n\nIt remains an open question whether this pattern will repeat over the next decades. In 2023, the top companies in the world include a diverse mix of industries, with a very heavy country-focus on the USA. Technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon continue to dominate, with other sectors like healthcare and finance also represented. As of April 2023, the following companies are in the [top 20](https://companiesmarketcap.com/):\n\n| Ranking | Name | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|--------------------------|------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Apple | $2.613 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 2 | Microsoft | $2.129 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 3 | Saudi Aramco | $1.926 T | 🇸🇦 S. Arabia |\n| 4 | Alphabet (Google) | $1.396 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 5 | Amazon | $1.050 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | Berkshire Hathaway | $706.28 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | NVIDIA | $660.92 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 8 | Tesla | $586.32 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Meta Platforms (Facebook)| $574.24 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 10 | Johnson & Johnson | $517.39 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Visa | $491.86 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 12 | LVMH | $491.42 B | 🇫🇷 France |\n| 13 | UnitedHealth | $477.42 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Exxon Mobil | $472.43 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 15 | TSMC | $452.22 B | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |\n| 16 | Tencent | $438.67 B | 🇨🇳 China |\n| 17 | JPMorgan Chase | $406.68 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 18 | Walmart | $400.25 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 19 | Novo Nordisk | $379.17 B | 🇩🇰 Denmark |\n| 20 | Eli Lilly | $356.87 B | 🇺🇸 USA |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if two or more of the following companies are in the top 20 publicly traded companies according to market capitalisation on data available on December 31, 2050: \n\nApple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Johnson & Johnson, Visa, LVMH, UnitedHealth, Exxon Mobil, TSMC, Tencent, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly.\n\nThis question will resolve based on publicly available market capitalisation, as summarised by [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/). However, given the late resolution date, no specific resolution source is specified at this point. Rather, any reputable financial platform that outlines publicly traded companies and their market cap can be used for resolution.", "fine_print": "While stock markets are typically not open on December 31, this question will still resolve on December 31 based on the close of the last available data from late 2050.\n\nIn the case of an acquisition, where a top 20 company acquires a non top-20 company, the question resolves as the original top 20 company.\n\nIn the case of an acquisition, where a top 20 company acquires another top-20 company (or the two companies merge), the new company will count as one company for resolution. For example, if Apple and Microsoft merge and both are in the top 20 at resolution, they count as one.\n\nIn the case of a break-up, if a top 20 company breaks into 2 (or more), and these companies are in the top 20 at resolution time, they will count individually (i.e. as 2 or more). For example, if Apple breaks into two and both are in the top 20 at resolution, they count as two.\n\nName changes will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 15964, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760567440.727336, "end_time": 1769292188.869785, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760567440.727336, "end_time": 1769292188.869785, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6108493661613322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03380766426233947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24371035437182373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007317111975919482, 0.0, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18829311106971483, 0.023612791704479896, 0.0, 0.026706158979239943, 0.3542463301646753, 0.0, 0.042282119148738334, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.24137310911316218, 0.0, 1.4297477461001302, 0.0, 0.3046693563012396, 0.0, 0.011922333154512703, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6390313914227468, 0.12379696394240604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3901896054144218, 0.15329697346188828, 0.0, 0.1351453996240435, 0.0, 0.16043171008124435, 0.0, 0.3286647279806401, 1.671999646792651, 0.5857488637089977, 0.7190903954441952, 0.0, 0.1815384893695543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09434453935808916, 1.4821970785397345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34701166526326865, 0.005009210557615142, 0.0, 0.06418622260947618, 0.0, 0.6108364980474674, 0.769009528437769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5899330629161843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5563046753061273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41662304395005134 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287543.677975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287543.677975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5585264155183842, 0.44147358448161583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At Berkshire Hathaway's [2021 annual shareholders' meeting](https://buffett.cnbc.com/2021-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/), Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized that none of the companies on the 1989 list were present on the 2021 list at the time of the meeting. The 1989 list featured a heavy concentration of Japanese companies, reflecting the strong performance of the Japanese economy at that time. In contrast, the list from 2021 revealed a significant shift towards technology and innovation, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon dominating the rankings. Below is the list of the top 20 companies worldwide by market cap in 1989. \n\n| Ranking | Company | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|-------------------------|--------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Industrial Bank of Japan| 104.29 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 2 | Sumitomo Bank | 73.30 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 3 | Fuji Bank | 69.40 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 4 | Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank | 64.04 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 5 | Exxon Corp | 63.84 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | General Electric USA | 58.19 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | Tokyo Electric Power | 56.50 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 8 | IBM Corp | 55.66 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Toyota Motor Corp. | 53.25 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 10 | American Tel & Tel | 48.95 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Nomura Securities | 46.81 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 12 | Royal Dutch Petroleum | 41.00 B | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |\n| 13 | Philip Morris Cos | 38.58 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Nippon Steel | 36.59 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 15 | Tokai Bank | 35.35 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 16 | Mitsui Bank | 34.99 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 17 | Matsushita Elect Ind'l | 33.36 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 18 | Kansai Electric Power | 33.13 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 19 | Hitachi LTD | 32.21 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 20 | Merck & Co | 30.75 B | 🇺🇸 USA \n\nIt remains an open question whether this pattern will repeat over the next decades. In 2023, the top companies in the world include a diverse mix of industries, with a very heavy country-focus on the USA. Technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon continue to dominate, with other sectors like healthcare and finance also represented. As of April 2023, the following companies are in the [top 20](https://companiesmarketcap.com/):\n\n| Ranking | Name | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|--------------------------|------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Apple | $2.613 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 2 | Microsoft | $2.129 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 3 | Saudi Aramco | $1.926 T | 🇸🇦 S. Arabia |\n| 4 | Alphabet (Google) | $1.396 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 5 | Amazon | $1.050 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | Berkshire Hathaway | $706.28 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | NVIDIA | $660.92 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 8 | Tesla | $586.32 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Meta Platforms (Facebook)| $574.24 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 10 | Johnson & Johnson | $517.39 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Visa | $491.86 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 12 | LVMH | $491.42 B | 🇫🇷 France |\n| 13 | UnitedHealth | $477.42 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Exxon Mobil | $472.43 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 15 | TSMC | $452.22 B | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |\n| 16 | Tencent | $438.67 B | 🇨🇳 China |\n| 17 | JPMorgan Chase | $406.68 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 18 | Walmart | $400.25 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 19 | Novo Nordisk | $379.17 B | 🇩🇰 Denmark |\n| 20 | Eli Lilly | $356.87 B | 🇺🇸 USA |" }, { "id": 15939, "title": "Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?", "short_title": "Cristina Fernández running for office in 2023", "url_title": "Cristina Fernández running for office in 2023", "slug": "cristina-fernandez-running-for-office-in-2023", "author_id": 133938, "author_username": "Unwrapped8600", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-14T19:13:22.309453Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T13:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.592831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T13:45:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-25T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T13:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15939, "title": "Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?", "created_at": "2023-04-14T19:13:22.309453Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T13:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T13:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T13:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-25T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-25T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cristina Fernández de Kirchner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner) was a two-term president of Argentina from 2007 to 2015, following her late husband Nestor Kirchner's 2003-2007 term. After her party lost the 2015 presidential elections against [Mauricio Marcri](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauricio_Macri), she briefly retired from the public eye, quickly returning to lead the opposition. She led the 2017 election campaign as a candidate for the Senate for the Buenos Aires Province (where she came second, winning a seat for the minority). In 2019, despite speculations that she might run again as president, she made the surprising move of proposing [Alberto Fernández](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fern%C3%A1ndez) (no relation) as the candidate for the presidency, while she would join him on the ballot as VP, reasoning that a less polarizing presidential candidate would make for a more appealing ballot. The coalition they formed ended up winning the election, but the existence of factions with different views has led to some infighting and to the estrangement between the president and the VP.\n\nSince the end of her second term, Fernández de Kirchner has faced multiple legal charges. While some of these have been [dismissed](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner#Causas_cerradas_por_sobreseimiento), last December a federal court found her guilty on one of them, [sentencing her to six years in prison and disqualifing her from holding public office for life](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vp-sentenced-to-six-years-on-corruption-charges).\nShe denies any wrongdoing and [says the charges are politically motivated](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner-argentina-sentenced-prison-fraud-case), describing the proceedings against her as [law-fare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare), which political analysts in the region describe as a form of “political warfare” involving politicians, the judiciary and the media, usually with a view to smearing leftist leaders as corrupt.\nHer political sector blames this smearing as the root of last September's [assessination attempt](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vicepresident-escapes-gun-attack), where a man managed to [hold a gun against her head and pull the trigger twice](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DN02JkHCJwI).\n\nEven though Fernández de Kirchner will appeal the court's decision, which could take years to resolve, she announced that she wouldn't be running for any office in next year's elections, although this would leave Fernández de Kirchner without immunity from arrest after leaving office. However, after this announcement was made, the political organizations that respond to Fernández de Kirchner have been campaigning for her and [clamoring for her to be president](https://en.mercopress.com/2022/11/05/cristina-fernandez-reappears-in-public-in-electoral-mode-as-crowds-called-her-president) in numerous public appearances.\n\nThere is still time to define the candidates for this year's national elections. The deadline for coalitions to present their candidates is June 24th. After that, the candidates of each coalition will compete in [Simultaneous Open Primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanket_primary#Argentina) held during August 13th, whose results will determine the candidates to compete in the [National Elections held on October 22nd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), where besides the office of president, members of congress will also be elected.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if, come the presentation of candidate lists for the primary elections on June 24th, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is included in any of the lists, either for president, senator or congresswoman.", "fine_print": "- If Fernández de Kirchner presents herself on June 24th but her presentation is later questioned or contested, this will still resolve as **yes**, since her decision to run would have been evident.\n\n- If, on the other hand, a new development prevents Fernández de Kirchner from even making it to the list presentation (such as all court appeal instances being exhausted), then this will resolve as **no**.", "post_id": 15939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687478700.504557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687478700.504557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09866714808711173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6195470556045188, 2.6367110644492406, 0.5053033555518208, 1.0126922382867223, 0.05730206168043847, 1.611659334844448, 0.0, 0.1792663589359841, 1.6791035121242794, 0.29037771215553876, 1.1569931868767875, 0.3458175630361501, 1.0615015289777647, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 1.1053975273841807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.37068749199850365, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30553584977951476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09501865743952613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.020698916419461283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01593610981462351, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2355230636490626 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.626915147566002, "coverage": 0.9999415251226484, "baseline_score": 62.18330684505066, "spot_peer_score": -4.618111378242517, "peer_archived_score": 18.626915147566002, "baseline_archived_score": 62.18330684505066, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.618111378242517 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687505870.973841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687505870.973841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9883675845427236, 0.011632415457276396 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 322, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cristina Fernández de Kirchner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner) was a two-term president of Argentina from 2007 to 2015, following her late husband Nestor Kirchner's 2003-2007 term. After her party lost the 2015 presidential elections against [Mauricio Marcri](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mauricio_Macri), she briefly retired from the public eye, quickly returning to lead the opposition. She led the 2017 election campaign as a candidate for the Senate for the Buenos Aires Province (where she came second, winning a seat for the minority). In 2019, despite speculations that she might run again as president, she made the surprising move of proposing [Alberto Fernández](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fern%C3%A1ndez) (no relation) as the candidate for the presidency, while she would join him on the ballot as VP, reasoning that a less polarizing presidential candidate would make for a more appealing ballot. The coalition they formed ended up winning the election, but the existence of factions with different views has led to some infighting and to the estrangement between the president and the VP.\n\nSince the end of her second term, Fernández de Kirchner has faced multiple legal charges. While some of these have been [dismissed](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristina_Fern%C3%A1ndez_de_Kirchner#Causas_cerradas_por_sobreseimiento), last December a federal court found her guilty on one of them, [sentencing her to six years in prison and disqualifing her from holding public office for life](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vp-sentenced-to-six-years-on-corruption-charges).\nShe denies any wrongdoing and [says the charges are politically motivated](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/06/cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner-argentina-sentenced-prison-fraud-case), describing the proceedings against her as [law-fare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare), which political analysts in the region describe as a form of “political warfare” involving politicians, the judiciary and the media, usually with a view to smearing leftist leaders as corrupt.\nHer political sector blames this smearing as the root of last September's [assessination attempt](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2022/argentina-vicepresident-escapes-gun-attack), where a man managed to [hold a gun against her head and pull the trigger twice](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DN02JkHCJwI).\n\nEven though Fernández de Kirchner will appeal the court's decision, which could take years to resolve, she announced that she wouldn't be running for any office in next year's elections, although this would leave Fernández de Kirchner without immunity from arrest after leaving office. However, after this announcement was made, the political organizations that respond to Fernández de Kirchner have been campaigning for her and [clamoring for her to be president](https://en.mercopress.com/2022/11/05/cristina-fernandez-reappears-in-public-in-electoral-mode-as-crowds-called-her-president) in numerous public appearances.\n\nThere is still time to define the candidates for this year's national elections. The deadline for coalitions to present their candidates is June 24th. After that, the candidates of each coalition will compete in [Simultaneous Open Primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanket_primary#Argentina) held during August 13th, whose results will determine the candidates to compete in the [National Elections held on October 22nd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), where besides the office of president, members of congress will also be elected." }, { "id": 15907, "title": "Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?", "short_title": "Negative ECB Interest Rate before 2023?", "url_title": "Negative ECB Interest Rate before 2023?", "slug": "negative-ecb-interest-rate-before-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-13T06:33:01.060427Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T01:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.011768Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T01:10:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-03T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-17T01:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15907, "title": "Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-13T06:33:01.060427Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T01:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T01:10:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T01:10:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-03T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The European Central Bank (ECB) [deposit facility rate](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me/html/what-is-the-deposit-facility-rate.en.html), a key component of the Eurosystem's monetary policy toolkit, allows commercial banks to deposit their excess reserves with the ECB. The deposit facility interest rate set by the ECB's Governing Council can be positive, negative, or zero, depending on the monetary policy stance. In Europe, the policy rate has been slightly negative from 2014 to 2022. See below for the [rates since 2011](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html):\n\n| Date (with effect from) | Deposit facility interest rate |\n|-------------------------|------------------|\n| 2023-03-22 | 3.00 |\n| 2023-02-08 | 2.50 |\n| 2022-12-21 | 2.00 |\n| 2022-11-02 | 1.50 |\n| 2022-09-14 | 0.75 |\n| 2022-07-27 | 0.00 |\n| 2019-09-18 | -0.50 |\n| 2016-03-16 | -0.40 |\n| 2015-12-09 | -0.30 |\n| 2014-09-10 | -0.20 |\n| 2014-06-11 | -0.10 |\n| 2013-11-13 | 0.00 |\n| 2013-05-08 | 0.00 |\n| 2012-07-11 | 0.00 |\n| 2011-12-14 | 0.25 |\n| 2011-11-09 | 0.50 |\n| 2011-07-13 | 0.75 |\n| 2011-04-13 | 0.50 |\n\n\nIn March 2023, the Governing Council has decided to [increase the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316~aad5249f30.en.html) to ensure the timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target, given that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. Recent financial market tensions have added uncertainty to ECB staff's macroeconomic projections. Inflation is [expected to average](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316~aad5249f30.en.html) 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. However, underlying price pressures continue to be strong. Growth in 2023 has been revised up to 1.0%, with growth expected to pick up to 1.6% in both 2024 and 2025. Given the current trajectory of inflation and the tightening of monetary policy, it appears unlikely that the ECB will return to negative interest rates in the near future, though if conditions similar to the early 2010s, with a continuously shrinking euro zone arise over the next decade, they [may return:](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-says-goodbye-negative-rates-or-just-au-revoir-2022-09-22/)\n\n> Even if the current inflationary bout means it could be a while before Europe's central bankers need to use negative rates again, it is unlikely they will want to rule them out.\n\n> \"They will always be spoken of as something that remains in the toolkit,\" said Rohan Khanna, strategist at UBS in London. \"I am very doubtful anyone here is ready to say never again for negative rates.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Governing Council of the European Central Bank sets the deposit facility interest rate to below 0% with an effective date before January 1, 2033. This is ascertained through the [official statements from the ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html).\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the European Central Bank ceases operations prior to the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15907, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743602344.533756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743602344.533756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1459523359700686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 1.7787055575931299, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.49942017717400644, 0.0, 0.9507808327394884, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.44642635295403355, 0.870439346825628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289650.413318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289650.413318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9409160551130439, 0.05908394488695609 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The European Central Bank (ECB) [deposit facility rate](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me/html/what-is-the-deposit-facility-rate.en.html), a key component of the Eurosystem's monetary policy toolkit, allows commercial banks to deposit their excess reserves with the ECB. The deposit facility interest rate set by the ECB's Governing Council can be positive, negative, or zero, depending on the monetary policy stance. In Europe, the policy rate has been slightly negative from 2014 to 2022. See below for the [rates since 2011](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html):\n\n| Date (with effect from) | Deposit facility interest rate |\n|-------------------------|------------------|\n| 2023-03-22 | 3.00 |\n| 2023-02-08 | 2.50 |\n| 2022-12-21 | 2.00 |\n| 2022-11-02 | 1.50 |\n| 2022-09-14 | 0.75 |\n| 2022-07-27 | 0.00 |\n| 2019-09-18 | -0.50 |\n| 2016-03-16 | -0.40 |\n| 2015-12-09 | -0.30 |\n| 2014-09-10 | -0.20 |\n| 2014-06-11 | -0.10 |\n| 2013-11-13 | 0.00 |\n| 2013-05-08 | 0.00 |\n| 2012-07-11 | 0.00 |\n| 2011-12-14 | 0.25 |\n| 2011-11-09 | 0.50 |\n| 2011-07-13 | 0.75 |\n| 2011-04-13 | 0.50 |\n\n\nIn March 2023, the Governing Council has decided to [increase the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316~aad5249f30.en.html) to ensure the timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target, given that inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. Recent financial market tensions have added uncertainty to ECB staff's macroeconomic projections. Inflation is [expected to average](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316~aad5249f30.en.html) 5.3% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. However, underlying price pressures continue to be strong. Growth in 2023 has been revised up to 1.0%, with growth expected to pick up to 1.6% in both 2024 and 2025. Given the current trajectory of inflation and the tightening of monetary policy, it appears unlikely that the ECB will return to negative interest rates in the near future, though if conditions similar to the early 2010s, with a continuously shrinking euro zone arise over the next decade, they [may return:](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-says-goodbye-negative-rates-or-just-au-revoir-2022-09-22/)\n\n> Even if the current inflationary bout means it could be a while before Europe's central bankers need to use negative rates again, it is unlikely they will want to rule them out.\n\n> \"They will always be spoken of as something that remains in the toolkit,\" said Rohan Khanna, strategist at UBS in London. \"I am very doubtful anyone here is ready to say never again for negative rates.\"" }, { "id": 15857, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term?", "short_title": "Macron's Dissolution of the National Assembly", "url_title": "Macron's Dissolution of the National Assembly", "slug": "macrons-dissolution-of-the-national-assembly", "author_id": 141146, "author_username": "mavialerys.ingeldir", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-12T12:06:42.373008Z", "published_at": "2023-04-16T16:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.572093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-16T16:16:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T19:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-04-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-04-08T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-09T19:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-16T16:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15857, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term?", "created_at": "2023-04-12T12:06:42.373008Z", "open_time": "2023-04-16T16:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-18T16:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-18T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-04-08T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-09T19:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-09T19:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-04-08T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T19:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The President of France has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament. In this case, the new elections for the National Assembly will be held.\n\nAs Macron lost his majority in parliament in 2022 and [more and more riots take place against his government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_Emmanuel_Macron), this option (which has not been used since the political crisis of [1997](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-04-22-mn-51145-story.html), where President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly) is becoming increasingly credible in the future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if French President Emmanuel Macron dissolves the National Assembly. This will resolve based on the official [Assemblée Nationale website](https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/langues/welcome-to-the-english-website-of-the-french-national-assembly) or on credible media reports. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Emmanuel Macron is no longer the French President at any point (due to the natural end of his term, his resignation, his impeachment, or other reasons), and the National Assembly has not been dissolved by him. For example, if Macron resigns, and reelections for the National Assembly are held for any other reason, this question also resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15857, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718107573.190568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718107573.190568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9689259935125378 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08249184589050257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03380766426233947, 0.0, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 0.08014323208954297, 0.0, 0.03962231348966356, 0.0300971136065479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026706158979239943, 0.0, 0.004046517214306785, 0.0, 0.0011756116749470711, 0.047096766477849196, 0.0, 0.002444497044844799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006095433581409484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023612791704479896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007317111975919482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4414177989399567, 13.135177473967062 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -5.268891874533264, "coverage": 0.28912277247797297, "baseline_score": -46.300271976500355, "spot_peer_score": 5.472489968924695, "peer_archived_score": -5.268891874533264, "baseline_archived_score": -46.300271976500355, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.472489968924695 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717487867.61669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717487867.61669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9885960753267355, 0.011403924673264402 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The President of France has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament. In this case, the new elections for the National Assembly will be held.\n\nAs Macron lost his majority in parliament in 2022 and [more and more riots take place against his government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_Emmanuel_Macron), this option (which has not been used since the political crisis of [1997](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-04-22-mn-51145-story.html), where President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly) is becoming increasingly credible in the future." }, { "id": 15853, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?", "short_title": "2050 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "url_title": "2050 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "slug": "2050-co2-emissions-exceed-20-gigatonsyear", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117829, "username": "ramble" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-11T22:19:53.743622Z", "published_at": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:14:13.503463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15853, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?", "created_at": "2023-04-11T22:19:53.743622Z", "open_time": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-17T19:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-17T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2050 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15853, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760145242.919422, "end_time": 1769045912.140639, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.631 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760145242.919422, "end_time": 1769045912.140639, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.631 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6425318020727726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.16823478873740735, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 1.2612160510950288, 1.0716578792965692, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1187823054963504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.452998791339337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287833.926014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287833.926014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4078012793393776, 0.5921987206606224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050." } ] }
