Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3720
{ "count": 6376, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3700", "results": [ { "id": 15853, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?", "short_title": "2050 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "url_title": "2050 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "slug": "2050-co2-emissions-exceed-20-gigatonsyear", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117829, "username": "ramble" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-11T22:19:53.743622Z", "published_at": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:14:13.503463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15853, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?", "created_at": "2023-04-11T22:19:53.743622Z", "open_time": "2023-04-15T19:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-17T19:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-17T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2050 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15853, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760145242.919422, "end_time": 1769045912.140639, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.631 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760145242.919422, "end_time": 1769045912.140639, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.631 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6425318020727726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.16823478873740735, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 1.2612160510950288, 1.0716578792965692, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1187823054963504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.452998791339337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287833.926014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287833.926014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4078012793393776, 0.5921987206606224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050." }, { "id": 15851, "title": "Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?", "short_title": "Amritpal Singh in Custody Before April 21?", "url_title": "Amritpal Singh in Custody Before April 21?", "slug": "amritpal-singh-in-custody-before-april-21", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-11T20:52:19.672981Z", "published_at": "2023-04-13T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.860824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-13T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-21T13:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-21T13:24:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-13T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15851, "title": "Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-11T20:52:19.672981Z", "open_time": "2023-04-13T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-14T04:15:19.626567Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-14T04:15:19.626567Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-21T13:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-21T13:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-21T13:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-21T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Amritpal Singh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amritpal_Singh) is the disputed leader of [Waris Punjab De](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waris_Punjab_De), an organization promoting the [Khalistan movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) in India. The Khalistan movement seeks to establish a sovereign state, named Khalistan, to be a home for Sikhs in the Indian state of [Punjab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab,_India).\n\nAmritpal Singh has been accused by the Indian government of [stockpiling weapons and promoting violence](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/khalistani-leader-amritpal-singh-waris-punjab-de-rehab-centres-human-bombs-gun-culture-punjab-2348956-2023-03-20) as well as [having contact](https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/amritpal-singh-maintaining-close-links-with-isi-terror-groups-sources-123031800844_1.html) with [Pakistani intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligence).\n\nIn March of 2023, Indian authorities [began a crackdown on Amritpal Singh's supporters and Waris Punjab De](https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/20/india/india-separatist-manhunt-internet-shutdown-intl-hnk/index.html), in the process arresting over one hundred people and blocking internet access for millions of people in Punjab. On April 10, 2023, it was reported that Papalpreet Singh, an aide to Amritpal Singh, [had been arrested](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/papalpeet-singh-pro-khalistan-fugitive-amritpal-singhs-close-aide-arrested-by-delhi-police/articleshow/99375414.cms). As of April 11, 2023, Amritpal Singh has not yet been captured.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 21, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Amritpal Singh is in Indian custody. If Amritpal Singh dies before being taken into custody this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15851, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682047645.460507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682047645.460507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05823804524204331 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9992156109079415, 6.1032861122624755, 2.7426821426331696, 0.8726003625274532, 0.6807100070833981, 0.8018989413443257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5734333106964542, 0.0, 0.1357756800810537, 0.14722104883919573, 0.7597859714519786, 0.23933639398942955, 0.05298274342702911, 0.49780940071131985, 0.6689157103541861, 0.07941099381019567, 0.0, 0.02552362291865424, 0.15773340503821737, 0.021098061225916433, 0.0, 0.09450689302835258, 0.11661334446446864, 0.032510383354376185, 0.021832922439402977, 0.0, 0.5352953134557419, 0.0, 0.027066218310523256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018810818436737359, 0.030826467426216177, 0.18301077260391257, 0.0, 0.007064033012232248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013667994809584211, 0.0, 0.00875485895066749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008567825917110226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00641015356332571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02505101009157957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12410419092502141, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.10174843382096, "coverage": 0.9970891806274912, "baseline_score": 62.703099568898935, "spot_peer_score": 31.640484707291886, "peer_archived_score": 11.10174843382096, "baseline_archived_score": 62.703099568898935, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.640484707291886 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682047645.478019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682047645.478019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991195727038807, 0.0008804272961192447 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 241, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Amritpal Singh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amritpal_Singh) is the disputed leader of [Waris Punjab De](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waris_Punjab_De), an organization promoting the [Khalistan movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) in India. The Khalistan movement seeks to establish a sovereign state, named Khalistan, to be a home for Sikhs in the Indian state of [Punjab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punjab,_India).\n\nAmritpal Singh has been accused by the Indian government of [stockpiling weapons and promoting violence](https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/khalistani-leader-amritpal-singh-waris-punjab-de-rehab-centres-human-bombs-gun-culture-punjab-2348956-2023-03-20) as well as [having contact](https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/amritpal-singh-maintaining-close-links-with-isi-terror-groups-sources-123031800844_1.html) with [Pakistani intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-Services_Intelligence).\n\nIn March of 2023, Indian authorities [began a crackdown on Amritpal Singh's supporters and Waris Punjab De](https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/20/india/india-separatist-manhunt-internet-shutdown-intl-hnk/index.html), in the process arresting over one hundred people and blocking internet access for millions of people in Punjab. On April 10, 2023, it was reported that Papalpreet Singh, an aide to Amritpal Singh, [had been arrested](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/papalpeet-singh-pro-khalistan-fugitive-amritpal-singhs-close-aide-arrested-by-delhi-police/articleshow/99375414.cms). As of April 11, 2023, Amritpal Singh has not yet been captured." }, { "id": 15849, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Control of Mariupol Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian Control of Mariupol Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [ { "id": 133221, "username": "Dataprasad" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-11T10:44:02.869345Z", "published_at": "2023-04-12T16:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.625948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-12T16:59:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T16:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15849, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-11T10:44:02.869345Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T16:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-13T23:52:25.743960Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-13T23:52:25.743960Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian organized [defence lasted until 20 May 2022 when defenders were ordered to cease fighting](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/defenders-of-mariupol-are-the-heroes-of-our-time-the-battle-that-gripped-the-world). \nMariupol is strategically important to Ukraine because it is a major port city and serves as a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It also has a huge symbolic value because [the defence of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces, including their heroic defence of Azovstal, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/mariupol-holds-out-against-russias-siege-a-symbol-of-ukrainian-resistance).\n\n<img \nsrc=\"https://i.postimg.cc/MHQKnhdz/x-K5-ENFg2-Dpci.png\" alt=\"map of Mariupol with the location of city council building\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/\">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license (CC-BY-SA 2.0)*\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of cities in Ukraine\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*\n\nThis question and especially its resolution criteria part is based on RyanBeck's [question about Melitopol](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War’s map shows the city council building in Mariupol (47.098697498197204, 37.554345970947786 - Mytropolytska St, 39) as not under either “assessed Russian advance” or “assessed Russian control”. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\n\nIf at the time of resolution the Mariupol city council building no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on April 11, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076323.647707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076323.647707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006963530237115424 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.906005078470512, 3.3334827015580792, 0.06751809014695846, 0.014879119339656636, 0.13551302953035904, 0.0, 0.03146943685148858, 0.02802334677640469, 0.003801900942845266, 0.0, 0.032441145867102915, 0.004563186367147011, 0.007450097260911806, 0.18353319753873695, 0.0, 0.06845238710083187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03717066227394352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053899252640078775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016121599020506437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00428463878637901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029605613936121693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012366369575886927, 0.0, 0.010088690840609248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002532467742172458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004549333128896809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.480678246195378, "coverage": 0.9959619162669049, "baseline_score": 88.30714827876103, "spot_peer_score": 21.078274871430963, "peer_archived_score": 16.480678246195378, "baseline_archived_score": 88.30714827876103, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.078274871430963 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835539.98964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835539.98964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian organized [defence lasted until 20 May 2022 when defenders were ordered to cease fighting](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/defenders-of-mariupol-are-the-heroes-of-our-time-the-battle-that-gripped-the-world). \nMariupol is strategically important to Ukraine because it is a major port city and serves as a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It also has a huge symbolic value because [the defence of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces, including their heroic defence of Azovstal, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/mariupol-holds-out-against-russias-siege-a-symbol-of-ukrainian-resistance).\n\n<img \nsrc=\"https://i.postimg.cc/MHQKnhdz/x-K5-ENFg2-Dpci.png\" alt=\"map of Mariupol with the location of city council building\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/\">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license (CC-BY-SA 2.0)*\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of cities in Ukraine\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*\n\nThis question and especially its resolution criteria part is based on RyanBeck's [question about Melitopol](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/)." }, { "id": 15835, "title": "Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Mifepristone FDA Approval Suspended?", "url_title": "Mifepristone FDA Approval Suspended?", "slug": "mifepristone-fda-approval-suspended", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-08T13:35:35.130519Z", "published_at": "2023-04-12T17:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.751757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-12T17:42:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T17:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15835, "title": "Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-08T13:35:35.130519Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T17:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-13T15:06:07.605763Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-13T15:06:07.605763Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation):\n\n>The FDA first approved Mifeprex (mifepristone) in September 2000 for medical termination of pregnancy through seven weeks gestation and this was extended to ten weeks gestation in 2016. FDA approved a generic version of Mifeprex, Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, in April 2019.\n\nDuring the coronavirus pandemic, the FDA temporarily granted approval for patients to receive mifepristone by mail. This change was [later made permanent](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fda-permanently-allow-abortion-pills-mail-major-win-advocates-n1286183).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/APCnewimaeg.png\" alt=\"Chart of Share of Abortions That Are Medication Abortions\" />\n*[Guttmacher Institute, February 2022](https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/02/medication-abortion-now-accounts-more-half-all-us-abortions)*\n\nOn April 7, 2023, the Northern Texas US [district court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_district_court) issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067.137.0_14.pdf) in the case *[Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/65768749/alliance-for-hippocratic-medicine-v-us-food-and-drug-administration/)* which issued a stay of enforcement of the FDA's approval of mifepristone. The opinion stayed the enforcement of its own opinion for seven days, allowing time for the federal government to seek emergency relief from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.\n\nShortly after on the same day, the Eastern Washington US district court issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.waed.102225/gov.uscourts.waed.102225.80.0_1.pdf) in the case *[State of Washington v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66841644/state-of-washington-v-united-states-food-and-drug-administration/)* which enjoined the FDA from\n\n>altering the status quo and rights as it relates to the availability of \nMifepristone under the current operative January 2023 Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy under 21 U.S.C. § 355-1 in Plaintiff States.\n\nThe conflicting orders [are expected](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-pill-lawsuit-mifepristone-misoprostol-kacsmaryk-74cb1c4cfab2c04f6cf2696151bc86ef) to require resolution by higher courts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion is no longer in effect for any period of time, according to information available from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). A stay, injunction, suspension, or revocation would all qualify, even if only temporarily in effect. This question is concerned with the FDA approval of all brands of mifepristone which have been approved for medication abortion, suspension of only the later expansions of access is irrelevant for the purposes of this question. If on July 1 only one brand of mifepristone has had its approval for abortion suspended while others are still approved this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nFDA approvals of other medicines using mifepristone which have not been approved for medication abortion (for example [Korlym](https://www.drugs.com/korlym.html)) are irrelevant for the purposes of this question. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion must no longer be in effect nationwide, if the FDA approval for at least one brand of mifepristone for abortion is still in effect in any state for the duration of this question it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15835, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174806.245106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174806.245106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.022672896104509843 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.907049318672119, 5.118335195804336, 0.4112549928791552, 0.1781437273560162, 0.07397024779252, 0.11971107422078779, 0.6016326041411628, 0.0, 0.019925616594079945, 0.0, 0.1182100735864484, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3964993777474186, 0.0, 0.6765546484653714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004659830558370482, 0.0931265599688461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005750031082171319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.245581520230083, "coverage": 0.9998613294927231, "baseline_score": 92.86543902253914, "spot_peer_score": 16.62067314499251, "peer_archived_score": 6.245581520230083, "baseline_archived_score": 92.86543902253914, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.62067314499251 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688174806.263296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688174806.263296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 275, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/postmarket-drug-safety-information-patients-and-providers/questions-and-answers-mifepristone-medical-termination-pregnancy-through-ten-weeks-gestation):\n\n>The FDA first approved Mifeprex (mifepristone) in September 2000 for medical termination of pregnancy through seven weeks gestation and this was extended to ten weeks gestation in 2016. FDA approved a generic version of Mifeprex, Mifepristone Tablets, 200 mg, in April 2019.\n\nDuring the coronavirus pandemic, the FDA temporarily granted approval for patients to receive mifepristone by mail. This change was [later made permanent](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fda-permanently-allow-abortion-pills-mail-major-win-advocates-n1286183).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.guttmacher.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/APCnewimaeg.png\" alt=\"Chart of Share of Abortions That Are Medication Abortions\" />\n*[Guttmacher Institute, February 2022](https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/02/medication-abortion-now-accounts-more-half-all-us-abortions)*\n\nOn April 7, 2023, the Northern Texas US [district court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_district_court) issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067/gov.uscourts.txnd.370067.137.0_14.pdf) in the case *[Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/65768749/alliance-for-hippocratic-medicine-v-us-food-and-drug-administration/)* which issued a stay of enforcement of the FDA's approval of mifepristone. The opinion stayed the enforcement of its own opinion for seven days, allowing time for the federal government to seek emergency relief from the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals.\n\nShortly after on the same day, the Eastern Washington US district court issued an [opinion](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.waed.102225/gov.uscourts.waed.102225.80.0_1.pdf) in the case *[State of Washington v. US Food and Drug Administration](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66841644/state-of-washington-v-united-states-food-and-drug-administration/)* which enjoined the FDA from\n\n>altering the status quo and rights as it relates to the availability of \nMifepristone under the current operative January 2023 Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy under 21 U.S.C. § 355-1 in Plaintiff States.\n\nThe conflicting orders [are expected](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-pill-lawsuit-mifepristone-misoprostol-kacsmaryk-74cb1c4cfab2c04f6cf2696151bc86ef) to require resolution by higher courts." }, { "id": 15815, "title": "Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?", "short_title": "California Advanced Clean Cars II Waiver?", "url_title": "California Advanced Clean Cars II Waiver?", "slug": "california-advanced-clean-cars-ii-waiver", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-06T21:14:12.363876Z", "published_at": "2023-04-07T12:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.986701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-07T12:05:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-07T12:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:01:29.214738Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:01:29.214738Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 1756, "type": "tournament", "name": "Climate Tipping Points", "slug": "climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/climate_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-27T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-03-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:01:29.291261Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15815, "title": "Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-04-06T21:14:12.363876Z", "open_time": "2023-04-07T12:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-09T12:05:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-09T12:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T18:02:03.026215Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-17T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.\n\nThe California Air Resources Board (CARB) [says the following](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/california-waiver-facts) about the history of its waiver applications (emphasis theirs):\n\n>**No waiver has ever been revoked and the one previous denial was quickly reversed.** There is no Clean Air Act process for revoking a waiver – which makes sense because governments and industry rely on waivers for years after they are granted to deliver clean vehicles and develop clean air plans. Even waiver denial is incredibly rare. The one time this occurred, in 2008, the U.S. EPA initially denied California’s waiver for GHG emission standards for 2009 and later model year light-duty motor vehicles. That denial was reversed when the U.S. EPA reconsidered it, and ultimately granted it.\n\nDetails about prior waivers are available at [this EPA page](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) grants California a waiver to implement its proposed Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII) in its entirety. If at the time of resolution only part of ACCII has previously been granted a waiver by the EPA then this question will resolve as **No**. This will resolve when a waiver has been granted as described, later revocation of the waiver is irrelevant for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15815, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736984625.969632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736984625.969632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.6747302165708516 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.382396375155657, 0.20598978202565338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.390969926278115, 0.6980965657768824, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.3428058705063229, 0.17009050010615168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.48092102496963307, 0.2080229624776491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0606505202851908 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.50951224867181, "peer_score": 4.070979515942772, "coverage": 0.9460092787501613, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994373423015446, "spot_peer_score": 67.29389732878002, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 35.50951224867181, "peer_archived_score": 4.070979515942772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 67.29389732878002, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287909.275984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287909.275984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5529475943046871, 0.4470524056953129 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.\n\nThe California Air Resources Board (CARB) [says the following](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/california-waiver-facts) about the history of its waiver applications (emphasis theirs):\n\n>**No waiver has ever been revoked and the one previous denial was quickly reversed.** There is no Clean Air Act process for revoking a waiver – which makes sense because governments and industry rely on waivers for years after they are granted to deliver clean vehicles and develop clean air plans. Even waiver denial is incredibly rare. The one time this occurred, in 2008, the U.S. EPA initially denied California’s waiver for GHG emission standards for 2009 and later model year light-duty motor vehicles. That denial was reversed when the U.S. EPA reconsidered it, and ultimately granted it.\n\nDetails about prior waivers are available at [this EPA page](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations)." }, { "id": 15796, "title": "Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "Russian Athletes barred from 2024 Olympics", "url_title": "Russian Athletes barred from 2024 Olympics", "slug": "russian-athletes-barred-from-2024-olympics", "author_id": 126097, "author_username": "jokerwing", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-06T18:49:32.063178Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T16:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.926234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T16:47:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T16:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15796, "title": "Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2023-04-06T18:49:32.063178Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T16:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T16:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T16:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the [Russian's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; [sanctions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/), [boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus), protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment, and more. Many individuals, corporations, and countries have taking action to show international solidarity with Ukraine.\n\nIn the sporting world, Russia has been banned from a number of recent international events. On Feb 28th 2022, four days after Russia invaded, FIFA made an unprecedented decision to [ban Russian clubs and the national team from all competitions](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-competitions) including the World Cup.\n\n> Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine. Both Presidents [FIFA and UEFA] hope that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people.\n\nIn 2023, the IOC (International Olympic Committee) has reiterated their position several times [[1]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries)[[2]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries) that Russian and Belarusian athletes can only compete as Individual Neutral Athletes.\n\nDespite IOC recommendations Poland banned Russian and Belarusian athletes from [the 2023 European Games](https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/03/29/russians-and-belarusians-banned-from-european-games-in-poland-despite-ioc-recommendations/). In Paris, the 2024 Olympic host city, event organizers [cancelled a World Cup fencing event](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-france-russia-ukraine-2821983e726628c8bbf21e1eb8dd8c76) after the FIE (International Fencing Federation) [decision](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-russia-ukraine-olympics-9754e17d554df4484c609248019bd1a9) to allow Russian athletes to resume competing one year after the invasion of Ukraine. \n\nLooking back at previous Olympics, Russia's Track and Field team was [barred from the 2016 Olympics](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/olympics/russia-barred-rio-summer-olympics-doping.html) over a decade long doping scandal. 68 Athletes filled appeals that were ultimately [dismissed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport](https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/russians-lose-track-appeal-ioc-weigh-total-ban-rio), though [some](https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133394/russia-ana-athletics) Russian athletes were able to compete as 'Authorized Neutral Athletes'. At the 2016 Paralympics the entire Russian Paralympic team was banned over the same doping scandal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian athletes are barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics under either (i) the Russian flag, (ii) The Russian Olympic Committee's flag, or (iii) any other independent or neutral flag. This will resolve based on the official list of countries and athletes present at the [2024 Olympics](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/paris-2024) or based on credible media reports, indicating that the 2024 Olympics are underway or have concluded without Russian participation. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, no more than 34 Russians can be competing at the 2024 Olympics. 34 was chosen as 10% of [Russian athletes that participated in the 2020 Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Olympic_Committee_athletes_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics) to allow for a few individual or sport specific exceptions.\n\nIf more than 34 Russian athletes compete at the 2024 Olympics, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf the 2024 Olympics are cancelled or postponed to 2025 or afterwards, this question resolves as ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722020363.174411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.896 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722020363.174411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.896 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8955789074225582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.048095097937101546, 0.24368051781253783, 0.018066535285764067, 0.05200589799764916, 0.0, 0.00791905537362891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014860655936507523, 0.0, 9.46887928684045e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029041128538064207, 0.0, 0.022904494743420385, 0.0, 0.04674399464392467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003935095242442667, 0.00015588045115705885, 0.001233522765112239, 0.06705685388659678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08323741110406215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2031406240681286, 0.0013524731513842232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.341040750109256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00034917394577086975, 0.0, 0.0020975900457786685, 0.07438280801811374, 0.00011357513319223306, 0.001698298920645451, 0.0009265649056710142, 0.001480638876906985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07455538603559364, 0.0, 3.196096747709772e-05, 0.00252555695459172, 0.193449368029208, 0.22924133214618642, 0.0, 0.0006157742038794623, 0.3830581895943269, 0.027693599454206182, 0.2582249639993873, 0.0006484930780371994, 0.05404735978760427, 0.06356661165216343, 0.0, 0.0001806508566287601, 0.0, 6.549372438616996e-05, 0.9289613603851163, 0.13119170428482752, 0.22730949360301508, 0.0, 0.18438282203684975, 0.2434788301376815, 0.048428788640879614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15943878753398202, 0.6390219911191195, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6466456946995895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8047845964689326, 0.0, 1.4045727370966694, 0.5286002354791806, 0.6287032369462295, 0.4054709345304678, 12.138579580844102 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -67.00080780589477, "coverage": 0.9997526825598888, "baseline_score": -224.74798508533834, "spot_peer_score": -50.11090262008868, "peer_archived_score": -67.00080780589477, "baseline_archived_score": -224.74798508533834, "spot_peer_archived_score": -50.11090262008868 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722020363.222572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722020363.222572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09142601545098905, 0.908573984549011 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 569, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the [Russian's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms; [sanctions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/), [boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus), protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment, and more. Many individuals, corporations, and countries have taking action to show international solidarity with Ukraine.\n\nIn the sporting world, Russia has been banned from a number of recent international events. On Feb 28th 2022, four days after Russia invaded, FIFA made an unprecedented decision to [ban Russian clubs and the national team from all competitions](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-competitions) including the World Cup.\n\n> Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine. Both Presidents [FIFA and UEFA] hope that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people.\n\nIn 2023, the IOC (International Olympic Committee) has reiterated their position several times [[1]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries)[[2]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries) that Russian and Belarusian athletes can only compete as Individual Neutral Athletes.\n\nDespite IOC recommendations Poland banned Russian and Belarusian athletes from [the 2023 European Games](https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/03/29/russians-and-belarusians-banned-from-european-games-in-poland-despite-ioc-recommendations/). In Paris, the 2024 Olympic host city, event organizers [cancelled a World Cup fencing event](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-france-russia-ukraine-2821983e726628c8bbf21e1eb8dd8c76) after the FIE (International Fencing Federation) [decision](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-russia-ukraine-olympics-9754e17d554df4484c609248019bd1a9) to allow Russian athletes to resume competing one year after the invasion of Ukraine. \n\nLooking back at previous Olympics, Russia's Track and Field team was [barred from the 2016 Olympics](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/olympics/russia-barred-rio-summer-olympics-doping.html) over a decade long doping scandal. 68 Athletes filled appeals that were ultimately [dismissed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport](https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/russians-lose-track-appeal-ioc-weigh-total-ban-rio), though [some](https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133394/russia-ana-athletics) Russian athletes were able to compete as 'Authorized Neutral Athletes'. At the 2016 Paralympics the entire Russian Paralympic team was banned over the same doping scandal." }, { "id": 15778, "title": "Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?", "short_title": "Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day", "url_title": "Trump guilty in Manhattan by Election Day", "slug": "trump-guilty-in-manhattan-by-election-day", "author_id": 122772, "author_username": "obgzqpna", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-05T19:17:54.667921Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T01:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.644354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T01:27:00Z", "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T01:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 223, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15778, "title": "Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-05T19:17:54.667921Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T01:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T01:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T01:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was [charged](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-indictment-criminal-charges.html) with [34 felony counts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_of_Donald_Trump) associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan grand jury stem from his alleged role in hush money payments to actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. With the indictment, Trump became the [first president - former or current - charged with criminal activity](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/05/1168256845/donald-trump-becomes-the-first-president-charged-with-criminal-activity#:~:text=Raedle%2FGetty%20Images-,Donald%20Trump%20has%20become%20the%20first%20president%20%E2%80%93%20former%20or%20current,had%20sexual%20encounters%20with%20him.). On April 4th he [pleaded not-guilty](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/04/trump-surrenders-00090361).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump is found guilty in *The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump* before Tuesday, November 5, 2024.", "fine_print": "- The question resolves upon the verdict, and does not require a sentencing ruling.\n- A guilty verdict must come from the Manhattan indictment (*The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump*), not from any other case. \n- Crimes can include adjusted charges from the original 34 charges, and the guilty verdict need not be for felony charges.\n- A guilty plea as part of a plea deal is sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n- An [Alford Plea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alford_plea) is sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n- If the investigation ends with a guilty verdict, but Trump is pardoned, this will still resolve **Yes**.\n- An appeals process does not prevent a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 15778, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717103903.289664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717103903.289664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8181454925334607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7027913270170958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004923335633059239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018149135248227477, 0.1147795548381449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14921387303273842, 1.7097757474051533e-05, 0.01989550608338888, 3.9024048780336656e-06, 0.001896191260940175, 0.00027954826221429776, 0.0, 0.06411827721491961, 0.0, 0.027037146087863197, 0.004043680796350471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005636205018633716, 0.0, 0.02269360549140832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009343770887786644, 0.0002628270701129751, 0.015526076042230183, 0.056131130145117496, 0.0014220367198943583, 0.0, 0.012601515477433359, 0.5277547046523403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007795289191444202, 0.0006000346690467219, 0.026209603618811222, 0.0, 0.0001529034386886078, 0.5148141532182342, 0.007834197856462749, 6.701472590297393e-05, 0.013578049584036994, 4.684545092089079e-06, 0.0069388650802638015, 0.006410658716655392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006402177672701819, 0.9065111092704996, 0.005043467126725812, 0.003144758963949633, 0.3081374229572291, 0.00043022611347594194, 1.4190474493747207, 0.15990849906994384, 0.006098765712185511, 0.49158069701993373, 0.0, 1.7428122337383627, 0.006736842523281112, 0.3322097306661526, 0.09331757582474295, 0.0, 2.0018397352225077, 1.0114891732625138, 0.20010134669413823, 0.4921737176073523, 0.0015074382327555098, 0.7052508721684055, 0.039742792165108384, 0.0, 0.0706675161151717, 0.0, 0.4714199915587145, 0.11786828889573758, 0.5443097898636421, 0.5633637178321366, 0.09017770435161579, 1.508074645084156, 0.386608391927229, 0.14274114947038158, 0.00021041699832822708, 0.0, 2.1724851255852373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.376361172414887 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.947600989851168, "coverage": 0.7217927601268601, "baseline_score": 15.244114100005838, "spot_peer_score": 57.04746636832633, "peer_archived_score": 25.947600989851168, "baseline_archived_score": 15.244114100005838, "spot_peer_archived_score": 57.04746636832633 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716828434.566003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716828434.566003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3029034292502192, 0.6970965707497808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 575, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 30, 2023, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was [charged](https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-indictment-criminal-charges.html) with [34 felony counts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictment_of_Donald_Trump) associated with falsifying business records. The indictments by a Manhattan grand jury stem from his alleged role in hush money payments to actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. With the indictment, Trump became the [first president - former or current - charged with criminal activity](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/05/1168256845/donald-trump-becomes-the-first-president-charged-with-criminal-activity#:~:text=Raedle%2FGetty%20Images-,Donald%20Trump%20has%20become%20the%20first%20president%20%E2%80%93%20former%20or%20current,had%20sexual%20encounters%20with%20him.). On April 4th he [pleaded not-guilty](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/04/trump-surrenders-00090361)." }, { "id": 15777, "title": "Will there be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities?", "short_title": "Peter Murrell Criminal Conviction", "url_title": "Peter Murrell Criminal Conviction", "slug": "peter-murrell-criminal-conviction", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-05T17:28:32.714543Z", "published_at": "2023-04-08T18:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:05:52.011292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-08T18:26:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-08T18:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15777, "title": "Will there be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities?", "created_at": "2023-04-05T17:28:32.714543Z", "open_time": "2023-04-08T18:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-10T18:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-10T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 5th of April 2023, [Peter Murrell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Murrell) was taken into police custody by Police Scotland after an investigation into the Scottish National Party's (SNP) finances.\n\nMurrell was the Scottish National Party (SNP) Chief Executive from 1999 to 2023, having [resigned from the role](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606 the 18th of March) after controversy regarding the SNP membership figures from which he subsequently [admitted to misleading](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scottish-national-party-chief-executive-resigns-after-membership-numbers-dispute-2023-03-18/) the Scottish public.\n\nThe investigation and subsequent arrest stems from complaints made regarding the alleged mis-use of fundraising donations made to the party totalling over [£600,000](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/05/peter-murrell-nicola-sturgeons-husband-arrested-over-snp-funding-investigation).\n\nMurrell has been married to [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon) (the *ex*-First Minister & Leader of the SNP and current MSP for Glasgow Southside) since 2010. Sturgeon recently announced her resignation on the 14th of February 2023 and was replaced by Humza Yousaf on the 29th of March. Their home (as well as the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh) was searched in connection to the investigation and arrest of Murrell.\n\n# Important Note to Forecasters in the UK\n\n[Police Scotland says the following](https://www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happening/news/2023/april/investigation-into-scottish-national-party-funding-and-finances-update/):\n\n>The matter remains active for the purposes of the Contempt of Court Act 1981 and the public are therefore advised to exercise caution if discussing it on social media.\n\n[According to the UK government](https://www.gov.uk/contempt-of-court):\n\n> If you’re found to be in contempt of court, you could go to prison for up to 2 years, get a fine, or both.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>You might be in contempt of court if you speak publicly or post on social media.\n>\n>For example, you should not:\n>\n>* say whether you think a person is guilty or innocent\n>* refer to someone’s previous convictions\n>* name someone the judge has allowed to be anonymous, even if you did not know this\n>* name victims, witnesses and offenders under 18\n>* name sex crime victims\n>* share any evidence or facts about a case that the judge has said cannot be made public", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks whether Peter Murrell will be convicted of a crime relating to the Scottish National Party's finances in the next five years. \n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if Murrell is found guilty of any crime relating to the SNP's finances by a court of law in Scotland or the United Kingdom.\n\nResolution sources will be from reliable news outlets as determine by the Metaculus team.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761765753.068456, "end_time": 1764723629.663, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761765753.068456, "end_time": 1764723629.663, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7436978997393984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6180800387765876, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0941681173036915, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289519.169847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289519.169847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28027693189456515, 0.7197230681054348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 5th of April 2023, [Peter Murrell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Murrell) was taken into police custody by Police Scotland after an investigation into the Scottish National Party's (SNP) finances.\n\nMurrell was the Scottish National Party (SNP) Chief Executive from 1999 to 2023, having [resigned from the role](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606 the 18th of March) after controversy regarding the SNP membership figures from which he subsequently [admitted to misleading](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/scottish-national-party-chief-executive-resigns-after-membership-numbers-dispute-2023-03-18/) the Scottish public.\n\nThe investigation and subsequent arrest stems from complaints made regarding the alleged mis-use of fundraising donations made to the party totalling over [£600,000](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/05/peter-murrell-nicola-sturgeons-husband-arrested-over-snp-funding-investigation).\n\nMurrell has been married to [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon) (the *ex*-First Minister & Leader of the SNP and current MSP for Glasgow Southside) since 2010. Sturgeon recently announced her resignation on the 14th of February 2023 and was replaced by Humza Yousaf on the 29th of March. Their home (as well as the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh) was searched in connection to the investigation and arrest of Murrell.\n\n# Important Note to Forecasters in the UK\n\n[Police Scotland says the following](https://www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happening/news/2023/april/investigation-into-scottish-national-party-funding-and-finances-update/):\n\n>The matter remains active for the purposes of the Contempt of Court Act 1981 and the public are therefore advised to exercise caution if discussing it on social media.\n\n[According to the UK government](https://www.gov.uk/contempt-of-court):\n\n> If you’re found to be in contempt of court, you could go to prison for up to 2 years, get a fine, or both.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>You might be in contempt of court if you speak publicly or post on social media.\n>\n>For example, you should not:\n>\n>* say whether you think a person is guilty or innocent\n>* refer to someone’s previous convictions\n>* name someone the judge has allowed to be anonymous, even if you did not know this\n>* name victims, witnesses and offenders under 18\n>* name sex crime victims\n>* share any evidence or facts about a case that the judge has said cannot be made public" }, { "id": 15765, "title": "Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine controls Armiansk by 7/1/23?", "url_title": "Ukraine controls Armiansk by 7/1/23?", "slug": "ukraine-controls-armiansk-by-7123", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-05T03:35:14.041361Z", "published_at": "2023-04-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.537342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-12T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15765, "title": "Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-05T03:35:14.041361Z", "open_time": "2023-04-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-13T00:34:03.106264Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-13T00:34:03.106264Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Armiansk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armiansk) is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia [seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation).\n\nUkraine, preparing for a [likely spring counteroffensive](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-tensions-rise-in-crimea-as-russia-prepares-for-a-likely-spring-offensive-202636), would [like to](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/war-in-crimea-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) retake Crimea, which could be a \"[red line](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/blinken-crimea-ukraine-putin-00083149)\" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.\n\nOn April 3, 2023, *The Washington Post* reported that \"[a web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches/).\" [ISW reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3-2023) specific defensive preparations near Armiansk.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the [ISW map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Armiansk railway station is under Ukrainian control at any point before July 1, 2023. Forecasters can find the location of the station by clicking the magnifying glass on the top left corner of the map and searching for \"Armiansk railway station.\"", "fine_print": "- Control will be indicated by the ISW category \"Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives,\" as well as any other category ISW introduces that indicates Ukrainian control of territory.\n - The ISW category \"reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\" is not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 15765, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135881.856765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135881.856765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.009698964879582354 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.445398258195119, 10.747524336688178, 0.002468091549933519, 0.22824722348129142, 0.0, 0.2930293569472042, 0.0, 0.011082498580592237, 0.013156083774982284, 0.00014587839364207648, 0.07540030909849019, 0.0031047725752661134, 0.0347980552646996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007123431816616531, 0.13523523779904154, 0.0, 0.006404218640100707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.6329023503275395, "coverage": 0.999995179201628, "baseline_score": 98.1872513536557, "spot_peer_score": 6.237185265324165, "peer_archived_score": 3.6329023503275395, "baseline_archived_score": 98.1872513536557, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.237185265324165 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135881.906306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135881.906306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Armiansk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armiansk) is a town in northern Crimea. It has been under Russian control since 2014 when Russia [seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation).\n\nUkraine, preparing for a [likely spring counteroffensive](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-tensions-rise-in-crimea-as-russia-prepares-for-a-likely-spring-offensive-202636), would [like to](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/26/europe/war-in-crimea-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) retake Crimea, which could be a \"[red line](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/blinken-crimea-ukraine-putin-00083149)\" for Russian President Vladimir Putin.\n\nOn April 3, 2023, *The Washington Post* reported that \"[a web of trenches shows Russia fears losing Crimea](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches/).\" [ISW reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3-2023) specific defensive preparations near Armiansk." }, { "id": 15762, "title": "Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?", "short_title": "Twitter Poll Verification on 4/16/23?", "url_title": "Twitter Poll Verification on 4/16/23?", "slug": "twitter-poll-verification-on-41623", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-04T20:32:10.809005Z", "published_at": "2023-04-09T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.771890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-09T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-16T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-09T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15762, "title": "Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-04T20:32:10.809005Z", "open_time": "2023-04-09T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-10T09:09:54.197872Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-10T09:09:54.197872Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-16T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-16T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 27, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972):\n\n>Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations. The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle. **Voting in polls will require verification for same reason.**", "resolution_criteria": "If, at noon ET on April 16th, Metaculus admins who are not verified confirm that they can no longer vote in Twitter polls, and public figures who are verified confirm they can, this resolves as **Yes**.\n\nThe existence of some polls that can only be voted on by verified users while other polls are available for all users to vote on will be sufficient for this question to resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681667666.195006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681667666.195006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.45371428989464735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4944981592411779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4834275487121458, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21116179823322628, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7923119596786021, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.39086599043581904, 0.3235495858073233, 1.0028088887291295, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 0.32745483117457985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04707910186009452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2536094460353158 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.80200141714695, "coverage": 0.9756927178899834, "baseline_score": -19.076123980709575, "spot_peer_score": 25.864729961986644, "peer_archived_score": 33.80200141714695, "baseline_archived_score": -19.076123980709575, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.864729961986644 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681656317.118196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681656317.118196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8613024980601836, 0.13869750193981642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 27, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972):\n\n>Starting April 15th, only verified accounts will be eligible to be in For You recommendations. The is the only realistic way to address advanced AI bot swarms taking over. It is otherwise a hopeless losing battle. **Voting in polls will require verification for same reason.**" }, { "id": 15688, "title": "Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?", "short_title": "Starship Launch License before Apr 15, 2023?", "url_title": "Starship Launch License before Apr 15, 2023?", "slug": "starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-01T00:06:06.756029Z", "published_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.713647Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-14T21:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-14T21:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15688, "title": "Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-01T00:06:06.756029Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-06T16:05:30.168162Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-06T16:05:30.168162Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-14T21:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-14T21:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-14T21:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX, a leading aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company, has been developing the [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as a next-generation reusable launch vehicle. Designed for missions ranging from Earth orbit to interplanetary travel, Starship has the potential to revolutionize space travel by significantly reducing costs and increasing capabilities. The spacecraft consists of a booster, the Super Heavy, and an upper stage, the Starship, both of which are fully reusable.\n\nBefore SpaceX can launch Starship, it must obtain a launch license from the [Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)](https://www.faa.gov/) The FAA is the regulatory body responsible for overseeing the safe and sustainable use of U.S. airspace, which includes licensing commercial space transportation activities. The launch license process involves a thorough evaluation of the vehicle's design, manufacturing, and testing procedures, as well as an assessment of the potential environmental impacts and risks to public safety.\n\nSpaceX is [\"tentatively eyeing mid- to late April\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-april-2023-elon-musk) for Starship's first orbital test flight. On March 16, 2023, SpaceX CEO Elon Must [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1636515448970698752) \"SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if SpaceX receives a launch license before April 15, 2023, as indicated by:\n\n- A statement from SpaceX or a SpaceX spokesperson\n- A statement from the FAA\n- At least two credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681509925.003216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681509925.003216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6064214654928898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012956624713270975, 0.0, 0.721130685405309, 0.02214264978065527, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.6301606780713973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1617044808375666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9852823761955134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05440657924985089, 0.0, 0.4251149928442965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.384967995967945, 0.4775044192925832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23292544278018218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492799034882604, 0.03550386479693625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35775041776788324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49938018698143877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15719192191598208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20326289878561837, 0.026682457845687065, 0.005715929431113761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008145825627362421, 0.32119788433181484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11608931509631863, 0.35403458900807694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20277388283553383, 0.0, 0.28410860996104204, 0.6743195377416064, 0.0, 0.07115234105768586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006861545636634085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24484609769994412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13816622619390675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19285133479472366, 0.08056048149199234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2699304080967646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.217134414637799 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.953156477869117, "coverage": 0.9946494778671588, "baseline_score": 9.277168523995092, "spot_peer_score": 34.37672559417913, "peer_archived_score": 7.953156477869117, "baseline_archived_score": 9.277168523995092, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.37672559417913 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681506130.933664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681506130.933664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7691942876684399, 0.23080571233156014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 322, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX, a leading aerospace manufacturer and space transportation company, has been developing the [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as a next-generation reusable launch vehicle. Designed for missions ranging from Earth orbit to interplanetary travel, Starship has the potential to revolutionize space travel by significantly reducing costs and increasing capabilities. The spacecraft consists of a booster, the Super Heavy, and an upper stage, the Starship, both of which are fully reusable.\n\nBefore SpaceX can launch Starship, it must obtain a launch license from the [Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)](https://www.faa.gov/) The FAA is the regulatory body responsible for overseeing the safe and sustainable use of U.S. airspace, which includes licensing commercial space transportation activities. The launch license process involves a thorough evaluation of the vehicle's design, manufacturing, and testing procedures, as well as an assessment of the potential environmental impacts and risks to public safety.\n\nSpaceX is [\"tentatively eyeing mid- to late April\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-orbital-launch-april-2023-elon-musk) for Starship's first orbital test flight. On March 16, 2023, SpaceX CEO Elon Must [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1636515448970698752) \"SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval.\"" }, { "id": 15686, "title": "Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?", "short_title": "Will US unemployment go down in March 2023?", "url_title": "Will US unemployment go down in March 2023?", "slug": "will-us-unemployment-go-down-in-march-2023", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T20:41:00.982989Z", "published_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.758356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-07T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-07T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-07T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-07T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15686, "title": "Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T20:41:00.982989Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-06T01:15:31.982261Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-06T01:15:31.982261Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-07T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-07T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-07T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-07T11:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-07T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. \n\nIn February 2023, the [rate was 3.6%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm). The March 2023 unemployment rate is [scheduled to be released on April 7th](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the the March 2023 U-3 seasonally adjusted \n unemployment figure, is less than 3.6% . Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for the listed month by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15686, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680864355.161822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680864355.161822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3832199031412995 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.2539318167112452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3378822015510121, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4302051512117426, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2851363590555764, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.7312543329104548, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.3014058023753985, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.2282913899154, "coverage": 0.99596744644594, "baseline_score": -24.52349509517182, "spot_peer_score": 18.929648788274367, "peer_archived_score": 10.2282913899154, "baseline_archived_score": -24.52349509517182, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.929648788274367 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680864355.176061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680864355.176061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9386280961757385, 0.06137190382426147 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. \n\nIn February 2023, the [rate was 3.6%](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm). The March 2023 unemployment rate is [scheduled to be released on April 7th](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)." }, { "id": 15685, "title": "Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?", "short_title": "OpenAI Tour 2023 to >1 African City?", "url_title": "OpenAI Tour 2023 to >1 African City?", "slug": "openai-tour-2023-to-1-african-city", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:50:29.854476Z", "published_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.290783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15685, "title": "Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:50:29.854476Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-06T01:16:32.708251Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-06T01:16:32.708251Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-10T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-10T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-07T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-07T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Open AI](https://openai.com/), the maker of GPT models such as GPT-4 and chatGPT, has recently announced a [world tour](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1641181669431611392) to connect with users and developers. \n\n[Current destinations](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) listed include a heavy focus on Europe and Asia with only a single destination in Africa, South America, and Oceania/Australia each.\n\nParticularly of note is a missing visit to any city in Kenya. This is significant because OpenAI has [faced criticism in the past](https://time.com/6247678/openai-chatgpt-kenya-workers/), for outsourcing sensitive data labeling work to Kenya. \n\nHowever, the interest form indicates that \"Cities are subject to change\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if there are more two or more African cities listed on [this form](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) as of 6pm UTC on April 10th. \n\nIf that form (or a similar replacement) is not readily available, this question will resolve as **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680888957.269723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680888957.269723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10254515462200828 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5619507120168745, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 5.119997446485078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8166971688029203, 0.0, 1.5319661248847247, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.21562164146808224, 0.009723111673611546, 1.2311299790408028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.41414552438156754, 0.6668037711388736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06327492015001017, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.14329729498878083, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.389436407565751, "coverage": 0.9967223200174392, "baseline_score": 75.77672042227297, "spot_peer_score": 14.795525371041842, "peer_archived_score": 6.389436407565751, "baseline_archived_score": 75.77672042227297, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.795525371041842 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680888957.295037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680888957.295037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9896129773984302, 0.010387022601569776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Open AI](https://openai.com/), the maker of GPT models such as GPT-4 and chatGPT, has recently announced a [world tour](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1641181669431611392) to connect with users and developers. \n\n[Current destinations](https://openai.com/form/openai-tour-2023) listed include a heavy focus on Europe and Asia with only a single destination in Africa, South America, and Oceania/Australia each.\n\nParticularly of note is a missing visit to any city in Kenya. This is significant because OpenAI has [faced criticism in the past](https://time.com/6247678/openai-chatgpt-kenya-workers/), for outsourcing sensitive data labeling work to Kenya. \n\nHowever, the interest form indicates that \"Cities are subject to change\"." }, { "id": 15684, "title": "Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Country Bans ChatGPT?", "url_title": "Country Bans ChatGPT?", "slug": "country-bans-chatgpt", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:31:39.253266Z", "published_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.605867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 322, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:57:23.816664Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:57:23.816664Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15684, "title": "Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:31:39.253266Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-06T04:30:20.749722Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-06T04:30:20.749722Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 31st, Italy [temporarily banned ChatGPT](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406) over [privacy concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-banned-in-italy-over-data-privacy-concerns-4b984e75).\n\nThe [announcement of the ban](https://www.gpdp.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847#english) states:\n\n>A data breach affecting ChatGPT users’ conversations and information on payments by subscribers to the service had been reported on 20 March...\n\n>In its order, the Italian SA highlights that no information is provided to users and data subjects whose data are collected by Open AI; more importantly, there appears to be no legal basis underpinning the massive collection and processing of personal data in order to ‘train’ the algorithms on which the platform relies.\n\n>As confirmed by the tests carried out so far, the information made available by ChatGPT does not always match factual circumstances, so that inaccurate personal data are processed. \n\n>Finally, the Italian SA emphasizes in its order that the lack of whatever age verification mechanism exposes children to receiving responses that are absolutely inappropriate to their age and awareness, even though the service is allegedly addressed to users aged above 13 according to OpenAI’s terms of service.\n\n>OpenAI is not established in the EU, however it has designated a representative in the European Economic Area. It will have to notify the Italian SA within 20 days of the measures implemented to comply with the order, otherwise a fine of up to EUR 20 million or 4% of the total worldwide annual turnover may be imposed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media reports indicate an additional country, other than Italy, has banned ChatGPT for any reason before July 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "- If a country bans and then unbans ChatGPT, the question will resolve as **Yes** based on the initial ban.\n- If a country announces an unconditional ban that will be effective on a later date, this question resolves to the date of the announcement. The question will resolve **Yes** as long as the ban is announced before July 1, 2023.\n- If a ban is announced contingent on OpenAI not meeting certain conditions, the date that either the ban is no longer predicated on conditions or goes into effect will be used for the purposes of this question. If that date is before July 1, 2023, the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n- If a country threatens to ban ChatGPT, but does not announce an effective date for an actual ban, that is not sufficient for a positive resolution.\n- If a country partially bans ChatGPT - for instance, it bans the use of the GPT-4 model but allows continued use of the basic model - that also is sufficient for **Yes** resolution.\n- Bans that are in effect as of April 2, 2023, such as the ban in Italy, do not trigger a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 15684, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147104.073761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147104.073761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03356371223358131 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.317299804550109, 13.244069770275006, 2.5305745731946008, 0.29239265021800376, 0.9972205305845384, 0.6803704401250112, 0.5676721384569944, 0.11299240910772235, 0.09482704019776313, 0.012075107383281276, 0.37745956326112223, 0.029596082025998064, 0.03286961995988272, 0.19560541184551544, 0.006102078267356, 0.7806486557110258, 0.023930857224335033, 0.01208475516828315, 0.008278063397701495, 0.0, 0.07578020494076845, 0.0066703751234065654, 0.004735121342452315, 0.0016420729354771836, 0.0020354907783216862, 0.046530572395100264, 0.03207784295207673, 0.05282768429178485, 0.08792592534029203, 0.0, 0.05382797763333608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002013678319020018, 0.017497620813055538, 0.1195847834767165, 0.0, 0.00020170105741420635, 0.0, 0.01130771299401445, 0.0015972913053778563, 2.1807515628146683e-05, 0.0007662294954676434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005933195584621387, 0.0, 6.495775957983373e-06, 0.0, 0.003299163306307525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006660054980073209, 0.0, 2.6771840302690052e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004197989241444877, 0.00045400257916142374, 0.0, 0.00017153213215034263, 0.017546455595860433, 5.972895965505711e-06, 0.004043234546476734, 0.0, 0.0005020309078528329, 0.0009831581028151403, 0.008956201965929219, 3.325217199776302e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013047114784882978, 0.00017189227658771555, 8.225201416207388e-05, 5.777203787946299e-05, 2.160050494711903e-06, 0.0, 0.001282847057329883, 0.0, 0.505765607503744, 2.1465531975056767e-05, 1.4095747568804712e-06, 0.000306802942390769, 0.0, 0.00429366135604566, 1.1342884571531106e-05, 5.1080859692426404e-05, 9.000958220574727e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.789617402667192e-07, 0.0, 3.198412954835496e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9702008920507955e-05, 0.0059396036703409085 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 60.65761338936266, "coverage": 0.999985631317683, "baseline_score": 32.79084205248616, "spot_peer_score": -15.187765481388071, "peer_archived_score": 60.65761338936266, "baseline_archived_score": 32.79084205248616, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.187765481388071 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147104.115987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147104.115987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1067, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 31st, Italy [temporarily banned ChatGPT](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-65139406) over [privacy concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-banned-in-italy-over-data-privacy-concerns-4b984e75).\n\nThe [announcement of the ban](https://www.gpdp.it/web/guest/home/docweb/-/docweb-display/docweb/9870847#english) states:\n\n>A data breach affecting ChatGPT users’ conversations and information on payments by subscribers to the service had been reported on 20 March...\n\n>In its order, the Italian SA highlights that no information is provided to users and data subjects whose data are collected by Open AI; more importantly, there appears to be no legal basis underpinning the massive collection and processing of personal data in order to ‘train’ the algorithms on which the platform relies.\n\n>As confirmed by the tests carried out so far, the information made available by ChatGPT does not always match factual circumstances, so that inaccurate personal data are processed. \n\n>Finally, the Italian SA emphasizes in its order that the lack of whatever age verification mechanism exposes children to receiving responses that are absolutely inappropriate to their age and awareness, even though the service is allegedly addressed to users aged above 13 according to OpenAI’s terms of service.\n\n>OpenAI is not established in the EU, however it has designated a representative in the European Economic Area. It will have to notify the Italian SA within 20 days of the measures implemented to comply with the order, otherwise a fine of up to EUR 20 million or 4% of the total worldwide annual turnover may be imposed." }, { "id": 15682, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?", "short_title": "Supreme Court Overturns ICWA?", "url_title": "Supreme Court Overturns ICWA?", "slug": "supreme-court-overturns-icwa", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:15:34.820796Z", "published_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.353187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15682, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T19:15:34.820796Z", "open_time": "2023-04-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-07T09:19:20.679088Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-07T09:19:20.679088Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-15T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Child_Welfare_Act) enacted in 1978, is a federal law designed to protect the best interests of Native American children and promote the stability of their tribes and families. \n\nThe establishment of the ICWA came as a response to a painful legacy of the US government separating Native American children from their families and communities. For much of the Nation's history, the US federal government's policy towards Tribes was one of assimilation. The government aimed to encourage assimilation by relocating Native American children to [boarding schools](https://americanindian.si.edu/nk360/code-talkers/boarding-schools/#:~:text=Beginning%20in%20the%20late%20nineteenth,Code%20Talkers%20attended%20boarding%20schools.). This pattern persisted into the mid-20th century, with state-court proceedings deeming children neglected or abandoned without taking their cultural background into account, resulting in placements with non-Native American families. [Studies](https://www.narf.org/nill/documents/icwa/federal/lh/hr1386.pdf) found that \"[large numbers of Native children were being separated](https://www.nicwa.org/about-icwa/) from their parents, extended families, and communities by state child welfare and private adoption agencies.\" \n\nCongress passed the ICWA to address these historical injustices and protect the interests of Native American children and their cultural heritage. Recognizing the unique cultural and social dynamics within Native American communities, the ICWA establishes minimum federal standards for the removal, placement, and adoption of Native American children in state child custody proceedings. It prioritizes keeping children within their tribal community by mandating that preference be given to extended family, tribal members, or other Native American families when placement decisions are made. Additionally, the ICWA requires state courts to collaborate closely with tribal courts to ensure that the rights of Native American children and their families are respected and preserved.\n\n*[Haaland v. Brackeen](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/in-challenge-to-indian-child-welfare-act-court-will-weigh-the-rights-of-states-and-the-role-of-race/)* is a pending Supreme Court case brought by the states of Texas, Louisiana, and Indiana that seeks to declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional. The [plaintiffs argue](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) \"that ICWA 'flouts the promise of equal justice under the law' by treating Native American children differently.\"\n\nThe Supreme Court [heard arguments](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) in the case on November 9, 2022.\n\nAccording to SCOTUSblog:\n\n>Native American tribes call the law “one of the most important pieces of federal Indian legislation ever enacted,” and they warn that a ruling in favor of the challengers “would work profound harm on Indian children and Tribes.” But Texas, one of the challengers, argues that ICWA “has not achieved its stated ends of improving stability and security among Indian tribes,” so that Native American children covered by ICWA “remain at a greater risk for abuse and neglect than other children.”\n\nFour hundred ninety seven tribes submitted an [amicus brief](https://sct.narf.org/documents/haaland_v_brackeen/amicus_497_tribes.pdf) supporting ICWA as an \"appropriate exercise of Congress's authority that directly support[s] tribal sovereignty and self-government and furthur[s] the best interest of Indian children.\" The tribes warned that overturning ICWA would \"threaten to rewrite the relationship between Congress and hundreds of Federally Recognized Tribes.\" Ruling that the ICWA is unconstitutional could have widespread ramifications, with some legal scholars warning that such a ruling could [call into question](https://www.law.uw.edu/news-events/news/2022/stacey-lara) hundreds of treaties between the federal government and sovereign tribal nations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the majority opinion in *Haaland v. Brackeen* declares any part of the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686838515.360666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686838515.360666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46757501767477716 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0447873949788467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06291985323287631, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8716505529499683, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03513810136237429, 0.46544730164347003, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.10545724016089074, 0.0, 0.04234230851621616, 0.41990426677267545, 0.5677130138662033, 0.0, 0.7057676323246797, 2.784284582899018, 1.7131517923330128, 1.7951897388198899, 0.3137849769556833, 0.0, 0.9588595939413342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3779883431438864, 0.1539321045549336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19511033457251417, 0.1685193219361709, 0.0, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21925555021421456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14436595169963862 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.923519217926668, "coverage": 0.8235938336766621, "baseline_score": -2.494905262474206, "spot_peer_score": 2.5383330572432916, "peer_archived_score": 19.923519217926668, "baseline_archived_score": -2.494905262474206, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5383330572432916 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686796313.255617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686796313.255617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.617439540229513, 0.38256045977048697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Child_Welfare_Act) enacted in 1978, is a federal law designed to protect the best interests of Native American children and promote the stability of their tribes and families. \n\nThe establishment of the ICWA came as a response to a painful legacy of the US government separating Native American children from their families and communities. For much of the Nation's history, the US federal government's policy towards Tribes was one of assimilation. The government aimed to encourage assimilation by relocating Native American children to [boarding schools](https://americanindian.si.edu/nk360/code-talkers/boarding-schools/#:~:text=Beginning%20in%20the%20late%20nineteenth,Code%20Talkers%20attended%20boarding%20schools.). This pattern persisted into the mid-20th century, with state-court proceedings deeming children neglected or abandoned without taking their cultural background into account, resulting in placements with non-Native American families. [Studies](https://www.narf.org/nill/documents/icwa/federal/lh/hr1386.pdf) found that \"[large numbers of Native children were being separated](https://www.nicwa.org/about-icwa/) from their parents, extended families, and communities by state child welfare and private adoption agencies.\" \n\nCongress passed the ICWA to address these historical injustices and protect the interests of Native American children and their cultural heritage. Recognizing the unique cultural and social dynamics within Native American communities, the ICWA establishes minimum federal standards for the removal, placement, and adoption of Native American children in state child custody proceedings. It prioritizes keeping children within their tribal community by mandating that preference be given to extended family, tribal members, or other Native American families when placement decisions are made. Additionally, the ICWA requires state courts to collaborate closely with tribal courts to ensure that the rights of Native American children and their families are respected and preserved.\n\n*[Haaland v. Brackeen](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/in-challenge-to-indian-child-welfare-act-court-will-weigh-the-rights-of-states-and-the-role-of-race/)* is a pending Supreme Court case brought by the states of Texas, Louisiana, and Indiana that seeks to declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional. The [plaintiffs argue](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) \"that ICWA 'flouts the promise of equal justice under the law' by treating Native American children differently.\"\n\nThe Supreme Court [heard arguments](https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/11/closely-divided-court-scrutinizes-various-provisions-of-indian-child-welfare-act/) in the case on November 9, 2022.\n\nAccording to SCOTUSblog:\n\n>Native American tribes call the law “one of the most important pieces of federal Indian legislation ever enacted,” and they warn that a ruling in favor of the challengers “would work profound harm on Indian children and Tribes.” But Texas, one of the challengers, argues that ICWA “has not achieved its stated ends of improving stability and security among Indian tribes,” so that Native American children covered by ICWA “remain at a greater risk for abuse and neglect than other children.”\n\nFour hundred ninety seven tribes submitted an [amicus brief](https://sct.narf.org/documents/haaland_v_brackeen/amicus_497_tribes.pdf) supporting ICWA as an \"appropriate exercise of Congress's authority that directly support[s] tribal sovereignty and self-government and furthur[s] the best interest of Indian children.\" The tribes warned that overturning ICWA would \"threaten to rewrite the relationship between Congress and hundreds of Federally Recognized Tribes.\" Ruling that the ICWA is unconstitutional could have widespread ramifications, with some legal scholars warning that such a ruling could [call into question](https://www.law.uw.edu/news-events/news/2022/stacey-lara) hundreds of treaties between the federal government and sovereign tribal nations." }, { "id": 15665, "title": "Will \"Epidemiologists\" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?", "short_title": "Epidemiologists in High Demand in Virginia", "url_title": "Epidemiologists in High Demand in Virginia", "slug": "epidemiologists-in-high-demand-in-virginia", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T11:54:01.546497Z", "published_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.497374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2100, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II", "slug": "keep-virginia-safe-ii", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Layer_0_copy_2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-04-05T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:35:59.630739Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15665, "title": "Will \"Epidemiologists\" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T11:54:01.546497Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T19:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T19:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Virginia State Code § 2.2-2472 (A.9), [requires](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) the Virginia Board of Workforce Development (VBWD) to publish a list of jobs, trades, and professions for which high demand for qualified workers exists or is projected. \r\n\r\nThe list is published by the [Virginia Office for Education Economics](https://www.vedp.org/voee). The methodology includes metrics of job growth, attractiveness, and Virginia institutional recognition of importance. Inclusion in the list would indicate real demand for epidemiologists and/or Virginia institutional commitment to epidemiologists. Epidemiologists are a core role in public health, and in disease preparedness and response.\r\n\r\nThe [Standard Occupational Classification System Code](https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm#19-0000) for Epidemiologists is 19-1041, under 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations. Epidemiologists were not in the [2021-2022 High Demand Occupations List](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) (see pages 4-5). \r\n\r\n A new list is scheduled for publication in Fall 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve as **Yes** if the VBWD has \"Epidemiologists\" on its [High Demand Occupations List](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/heather.mckay/viz/Beta-HDOccsv2_16357984270930/OccupationalProfiles) in the report published in Fall 2023.", "fine_print": "If no report is published before 1 January 2024, this will resolve as ambiguous.", "post_id": 15665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703640894.836439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703640894.836439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1093700205328701 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3557603495149906, 0.0, 1.0, 0.338266843588547, 0.48445203446746915, 0.9454180726352348, 1.0994192372592595, 0.286995633379881, 1.256506812234385, 1.4356230738448517, 0.0, 1.077236304103516, 0.05630936737947011, 0.5089300594347316, 0.011010747534174546, 0.8081416321180993, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.2432439137351297, 0.4700096739574802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.11328180187102153, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39962148407489445, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.167737679983949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.03355904935421398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.41105888990023, "coverage": 0.9558877781150523, "baseline_score": 71.53349504886862, "spot_peer_score": 21.61705571591764, "peer_archived_score": 22.41105888990023, "baseline_archived_score": 71.53349504886862, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.61705571591764 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702798640.338055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702798640.338055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9706873990539285, 0.029312600946071517 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Virginia State Code § 2.2-2472 (A.9), [requires](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) the Virginia Board of Workforce Development (VBWD) to publish a list of jobs, trades, and professions for which high demand for qualified workers exists or is projected. \r\n\r\nThe list is published by the [Virginia Office for Education Economics](https://www.vedp.org/voee). The methodology includes metrics of job growth, attractiveness, and Virginia institutional recognition of importance. Inclusion in the list would indicate real demand for epidemiologists and/or Virginia institutional commitment to epidemiologists. Epidemiologists are a core role in public health, and in disease preparedness and response.\r\n\r\nThe [Standard Occupational Classification System Code](https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm#19-0000) for Epidemiologists is 19-1041, under 19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations. Epidemiologists were not in the [2021-2022 High Demand Occupations List](https://www.vedp.org/sites/default/files/voee/Virginia_High_Demand_Occupations_List_2021-2022_Full.pdf) (see pages 4-5). \r\n\r\n A new list is scheduled for publication in Fall 2023." }, { "id": 15664, "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?", "short_title": "COVID 2023 Summer Peak Exceeds Winter Peak", "url_title": "COVID 2023 Summer Peak Exceeds Winter Peak", "slug": "covid-2023-summer-peak-exceeds-winter-peak", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-31T11:45:26.992216Z", "published_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.519378Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2100, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II", "slug": "keep-virginia-safe-ii", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Layer_0_copy_2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-04-05T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:35:59.630739Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15664, "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-31T11:45:26.992216Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-07T14:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-07T14:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-02T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by report date, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates weekly.\n\nVDH [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\n\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during summer 2023 (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.\n\nThe 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-19 cases was [2,457](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) and the 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-like illness visits was [11,631](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/)", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if at any point during the 2023 summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Report Date”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) **or** COVID-like illness [(“ED Visits for COVID-Like Illness (CLI) (weekly counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December 2022, January 2023, February 2023).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696139624.862212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.037 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696139624.862212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.037 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04167941605938254 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.700251696738375, 4.34380723718354, 0.23318290175400283, 0.7978340370820901, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.32853140263391106, 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.003256133383704309, 1.1714230432023682, 0.37643329243262963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5576688763820327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07739348047006786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09579000750583701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055089962873426206 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.28545076046109, "coverage": 0.999998762605203, "baseline_score": 92.3369220933261, "spot_peer_score": 17.872095394181798, "peer_archived_score": 19.28545076046109, "baseline_archived_score": 92.3369220933261, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.872095394181798 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696146340.231025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696146340.231025, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "VDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by report date, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates weekly.\n\nVDH [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\n\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during summer 2023 (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.\n\nThe 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-19 cases was [2,457](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) and the 2022-2023 winter peak of COVID-like illness visits was [11,631](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/)" }, { "id": 15656, "title": "Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?", "short_title": "New SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024", "url_title": "New SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024", "slug": "new-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern-before-2024", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-30T22:34:53.620347Z", "published_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.796212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2100, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II", "slug": "keep-virginia-safe-ii", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Layer_0_copy_2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-04-05T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:35:59.630739Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15656, "title": "Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-30T22:34:53.620347Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T19:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T19:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO [updated](https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2023-statement-on-the-update-of-who-s-working-definitions-and-tracking-system-for-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-and-variants-of-interest) its tracking system and [working definitions](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions mean that Omicron sublineages will be considered independently as Variants under Monitoring, Variants of Interest, or Variants of Concern. As a result of these changes, the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was classified as a Variant of Interest.\r\n\r\nThe emergence of new variants has been associated with COVID-19 case and hospitalization surges, and with the efficacy of treatments and vaccinations.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2024, WHO identifies a new Variant of Concern on their [\"Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants\" page](https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703967791.364904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703967791.364904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025058205441018562 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.336915627024746, 4.826838800050805, 1.0431343952027223, 0.5635460008080497, 0.2685266431438684, 0.4545663024326618, 0.424584494095822, 0.0, 0.10692263183074983, 0.0, 0.656470856110303, 0.0, 0.04492691042568231, 0.25351962562834607, 0.09027048108358579, 0.04048382654087009, 0.00040673804386707926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029030972137388197, 0.20850059837047635, 0.002648291037023166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.0012174888155902124, 0.0, 0.13675591576630178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001956091515936486, 0.01232173339112485, 0.02394808628087566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002298978468056262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004443617915320058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014453669945896995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928914836847643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018842738753081796, 0.003460269966480128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013651996186131916, 0.0, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001983748139857539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008707587640273762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003707718046887715 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 36.283966785006385, "coverage": 0.9999996113992901, "baseline_score": 55.704068773939184, "spot_peer_score": 50.1876043353132, "peer_archived_score": 36.283966785006385, "baseline_archived_score": 55.704068773939184, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.1876043353132 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008228.536015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008228.536015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 374, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 15/16 March 2023, the WHO [updated](https://www.who.int/news/item/16-03-2023-statement-on-the-update-of-who-s-working-definitions-and-tracking-system-for-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-and-variants-of-interest) its tracking system and [working definitions](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern to take to account for the dominance and variance of the Omicron variant and its sublineages. The new definitions mean that Omicron sublineages will be considered independently as Variants under Monitoring, Variants of Interest, or Variants of Concern. As a result of these changes, the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was classified as a Variant of Interest.\r\n\r\nThe emergence of new variants has been associated with COVID-19 case and hospitalization surges, and with the efficacy of treatments and vaccinations." }, { "id": 15651, "title": "Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?", "short_title": "NYC Homelessness in 2023 > 100,000", "url_title": "NYC Homelessness in 2023 > 100,000", "slug": "nyc-homelessness-in-2023-100000", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-30T18:38:43.229887Z", "published_at": "2023-04-15T01:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.828662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-15T01:20:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-15T01:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15651, "title": "Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-30T18:38:43.229887Z", "open_time": "2023-04-15T01:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-17T01:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-17T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Department of Homeless Services (DHS)](https://www.nyc.gov/site/dhs/about/inside-dhs.page) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. With an annual budget of over $2 billion and 2,000 employees, DHS aims help clients transition from shelters to self-sufficiency. The agency's critical objectives include preventing households from becoming homeless, reducing street homelessness, ensuring temporary shelter availability, increasing client engagement, maintaining shelter safety, and reducing shelter stays to promote stable community housing. According to the [DHS data](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report/workspace/file?filename=DHS_Daily_Report.csv), NYC homeless individuals in shelter (run by the DHS) in 2022 ranged from 45,213 on January 1 to 66,334 on Dec 31. As of writing this question in late March 2023, the low for 2023 was 66,564 on Jan 1, with a high of 72,522 on March 28. \n\nThis increase in individuals using DHS homeless shelters has been acknowledged by the [local government](https://citylimits.org/2023/01/17/nycs-homeless-shelter-population-ballooned-in-2022-how-will-leaders-address-the-crisis-this-year/), which has promised to increase funding to [homeless services](https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&oq=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l2j0i546i649.4126j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8).\n\n> The dramatic uptick last year was fueled, experts and officials say, by the ongoing financial impact of the pandemic, the end of statewide eviction protections last year, rising rents, understaffed government agencies, a shortage of truly affordable housing and the arrival since last spring of more than 40,000 asylum seekers from the southern border that lawmakers say has strained the city's resources.\n\n> In recent months, Mayor Adams has emphasized the uptick in migrants seeking shelter as the main force driving the city's homeless population, prompting the administration to open 74 emergency shelters in addition to the HERRC sites, including a short-lived, barracks-style tent facility on Randall's Island.\n\n> \"We are now seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen—averaging over 400 people each day this last week, with 835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone, the largest single day arrival we’ve seen to date. All this is pushing New York City to the brink,\" the mayor said Saturday, as he prepared to travel to El Paso, Texas to meet with local leaders along the border firsthand. \"We are at our breaking point.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The resolution source is the [NYC Department of Homeless Services Daily Report](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report). To resolve this question, download the ‘DHS_Daily_Report.csv’ on January 2, 2024 (or later, if data for December 31, 2023 is not yet available). Then, select the 2023 data and sort ‘total_individuals_in_shelter’. If any day of 2023 shows a number higher than 100,000, this question resolves positively. If it is not, this question resolves negatively. If the DHS ceases publication of this data series, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "To access the resolution source, you have to make an account, though this is cheap and quick and should be possible for anyone interested in forecasting (or resolving) this question.", "post_id": 15651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696041586.826357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696041586.826357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3985370884562643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.861396654283014, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06275008396943872, 0.0, 2.10541053433574, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.6275685608590118, 0.8861311565282529, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.3268262380230357, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.5850506855707149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.0094916014798532, "coverage": 0.9988633903433612, "baseline_score": 21.187322637882524, "spot_peer_score": 28.76820724517808, "peer_archived_score": -1.0094916014798532, "baseline_archived_score": 21.187322637882524, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.76820724517808 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696060050.915631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696060050.915631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7413921137129657, 0.25860788628703435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Department of Homeless Services (DHS)](https://www.nyc.gov/site/dhs/about/inside-dhs.page) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. With an annual budget of over $2 billion and 2,000 employees, DHS aims help clients transition from shelters to self-sufficiency. The agency's critical objectives include preventing households from becoming homeless, reducing street homelessness, ensuring temporary shelter availability, increasing client engagement, maintaining shelter safety, and reducing shelter stays to promote stable community housing. According to the [DHS data](https://data.world/ian/nyc-department-of-homeless-services-daily-report/workspace/file?filename=DHS_Daily_Report.csv), NYC homeless individuals in shelter (run by the DHS) in 2022 ranged from 45,213 on January 1 to 66,334 on Dec 31. As of writing this question in late March 2023, the low for 2023 was 66,564 on Jan 1, with a high of 72,522 on March 28. \n\nThis increase in individuals using DHS homeless shelters has been acknowledged by the [local government](https://citylimits.org/2023/01/17/nycs-homeless-shelter-population-ballooned-in-2022-how-will-leaders-address-the-crisis-this-year/), which has promised to increase funding to [homeless services](https://www.google.com/search?q=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&oq=nyc+increase+funding+for+homelessness&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i546l2j0i546i649.4126j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8).\n\n> The dramatic uptick last year was fueled, experts and officials say, by the ongoing financial impact of the pandemic, the end of statewide eviction protections last year, rising rents, understaffed government agencies, a shortage of truly affordable housing and the arrival since last spring of more than 40,000 asylum seekers from the southern border that lawmakers say has strained the city's resources.\n\n> In recent months, Mayor Adams has emphasized the uptick in migrants seeking shelter as the main force driving the city's homeless population, prompting the administration to open 74 emergency shelters in addition to the HERRC sites, including a short-lived, barracks-style tent facility on Randall's Island.\n\n> \"We are now seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen—averaging over 400 people each day this last week, with 835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone, the largest single day arrival we’ve seen to date. All this is pushing New York City to the brink,\" the mayor said Saturday, as he prepared to travel to El Paso, Texas to meet with local leaders along the border firsthand. \"We are at our breaking point.\"" }, { "id": 15650, "title": "Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?", "short_title": "Venezuelan Civil War", "url_title": "Venezuelan Civil War", "slug": "venezuelan-civil-war", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-30T14:35:44.471578Z", "published_at": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T18:32:19.759891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15650, "title": "Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-03-30T14:35:44.471578Z", "open_time": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-04T17:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-04T17:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a [national crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.\n\nVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has warned of a [civil war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47112284), and [multiple](https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-venezuela-becoming-a-failed-state/) [major](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/opinion/contributors/how-to-avoid-civil-war-in-venezuela.html) [media](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-specter-of-civil-war-in-venezuela/2017/08/13/aaa07852-7ecd-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html) [publications](https://time.com/4931053/its-time-to-plan-for-civil-war-in-venezuela/) have discussed the possibility as well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Venezuela is listed as having been in ‘Civil War’ or 'Civil War' mixed with any other conflict category for any time before 2050 according to the [‘WPR Countries Currently at War’ list](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war).\n\nThis question also resolves as Yes there is overwhelming global consensus that Venezuela is experiencing civil war. This is operationalized as fulfilling both of the following conditions: 1) The BBC and the New York Times report Venezuela as experiencing civil war. 2) The UN makes a statement referring to Venezuela as experiencing civil war.", "fine_print": "If Venezuela ceases to exist for any reason, the question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 15650, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762713129.553883, "end_time": 1764891903.245749, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762713129.553883, "end_time": 1764891903.245749, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5449012661896895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6469044956700429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3917019996792684, 0.0, 0.08543252822519284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4303990296633425, 0.0, 0.03126931611125853, 0.04791750235716968, 0.0, 0.017282230312143713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7740582225217716, 0.006043168560687309, 0.019501694237860755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7655415656278954, 0.008438284300033617, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36390989884417885, 0.07095202666684558, 0.005034190088132767, 0.31430815491989345, 0.05852891229315346, 1.671829676535936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988487450611914, 0.0, 1.013155376034681, 0.0, 0.8264440272789282, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1993489219774733, 0.23769977659423439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45120860633737064, 0.0, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.6351213730797269, 0.4035447610956698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7433890782192205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2925703873652975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7437192396632729 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290208.329388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290208.329388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6724086781302702, 0.32759132186972983 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a [national crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.\n\nVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has warned of a [civil war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47112284), and [multiple](https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-venezuela-becoming-a-failed-state/) [major](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/opinion/contributors/how-to-avoid-civil-war-in-venezuela.html) [media](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-specter-of-civil-war-in-venezuela/2017/08/13/aaa07852-7ecd-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html) [publications](https://time.com/4931053/its-time-to-plan-for-civil-war-in-venezuela/) have discussed the possibility as well." } ] }
