Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3720
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3700", "results": [ { "id": 11229, "title": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Obligatory ID Authentication on Twitter", "url_title": "Obligatory ID Authentication on Twitter", "slug": "obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-06T10:28:22.176839Z", "published_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.478586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11229, "title": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-06T10:28:22.176839Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-law-enforcement-support): \n\n> Twitter doesn’t require real name use, email verification, or identity authentication.\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if new Twitter accounts created on July 1, 2023 require personal ID authentication. So when setting up a new account a person is required to provide a document that is tied to themselves and identifies their name, for example a passport or driver's license or a credit card.\n\nIf personal ID authentication is not offered, or offered and not obligatory for the creation of new accounts, or obligatory at some time (but not on July 1, 2023), then this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "There might be exceptions, for example for corporate accounts, where Twitter chooses different verification methods than personal ID verification. This question is concerned with Twitter accounts that are used by a single person.", "post_id": 11229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688191074.061439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688191074.061439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02197463811541064 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.884295381650749, 7.176980552346322, 0.5976607901482095, 0.0, 1.3502852456460173, 0.09620722269387713, 0.7245394174266574, 0.07897971201875717, 0.09196331957188697, 0.21001020717018964, 0.022531492893703174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008970257685421864, 0.0, 0.013371869685048636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009794084302945889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.42137912002218264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008638428186252201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.075500155871836, "coverage": 0.9996225708352815, "baseline_score": 66.66611040417507, "spot_peer_score": -6.936982231298589, "peer_archived_score": 20.075500155871836, "baseline_archived_score": 66.66611040417507, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.936982231298589 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688197347.469108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688197347.469108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987101190965259, 0.001289880903474202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 293, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-law-enforcement-support): \n\n> Twitter doesn’t require real name use, email verification, or identity authentication.\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans" }, { "id": 11216, "title": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "short_title": "Ron DeSantis president by 2029", "url_title": "Ron DeSantis president by 2029", "slug": "ron-desantis-president-by-2029", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-05T06:23:18.354682Z", "published_at": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T04:07:45.552357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11216, "title": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "created_at": "2022-06-05T06:23:18.354682Z", "open_time": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T21:24:10.507877Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T21:24:10.507877Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ready-ron-pac-urges-desantis-run-president-2024),\n\n> A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former GOP Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. \n\n> DeSantis, running this year for a second term as Florida governor, has consistently led polls among Republican primary voters if Trump isn’t a contender. However, when Trump is included in the polling, DeSantis usually runs a distant second.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Ron DeSantis became US president (but not merely acting president) at any point before the end of the day on January 20th 2029 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11216, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758686854.471207, "end_time": 1758898955.422939, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758686854.471207, "end_time": 1758898955.422939, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029346004105979644 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.623684762782588, 5.304115767228338, 2.4778525596007244, 0.5630214075125808, 0.19182002411123944, 0.5510776446625041, 0.2201672235194415, 0.010843095881615717, 0.0, 0.0, 1.095125350342575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.759113823187498, 0.0, 0.08242191522149989, 0.0, 0.3466377511063886, 0.008410636364089065, 0.003537004892243706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003384014860679632, 0.019409950540927114, 0.006765987355861452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038072668394844144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027349190580289477, 0.0, 0.0006905453924573398, 0.0, 0.0031831285372123284, 0.0, 0.0001202313269185036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004945415509891084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09281079819357643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028577210314313546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004789702417281179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008223930553462298 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289159.111446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289159.111446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9966433173205903, 0.0033566826794096563 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 532, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ready-ron-pac-urges-desantis-run-president-2024),\n\n> A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former GOP Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. \n\n> DeSantis, running this year for a second term as Florida governor, has consistently led polls among Republican primary voters if Trump isn’t a contender. However, when Trump is included in the polling, DeSantis usually runs a distant second." }, { "id": 11206, "title": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "short_title": "Blake Masters Wins '22 AZ Senate Election", "url_title": "Blake Masters Wins '22 AZ Senate Election", "slug": "blake-masters-wins-22-az-senate-election", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-04T01:24:48.625782Z", "published_at": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.908953Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11206, "title": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "created_at": "2022-06-04T01:24:48.625782Z", "open_time": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Blake Gates Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)), born August 5, 1986, is an American attorney, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, author, president of the Thiel Foundation, and former COO of Thiel Capital. Masters co-wrote [Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_to_One) with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He is a candidate in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona)\n\nMasters will participate in [the Republican primary for this election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona#Republican_primary) on August 2, 2022. Masters has been [endorsed by former president Donald Trump.](https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3509966-trump-endorses-masters-in-arizona-senate-gop-primary/)\n\n[The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona) will take place on November 8, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Blake Masters is officially certified as the winner of the the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur for any reason", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861196.475011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861196.475011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41959329240917026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005117679520578566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028794611337204092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0055530792312750935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08223695330388672, 0.0, 0.01941676900635268, 0.002928391657636763, 0.03269403092024564, 0.08873779031129571, 0.008226635416206747, 0.004711180847754763, 0.007705548543668795, 0.022866549556982425, 0.222472839174599, 0.01030128423534859, 0.2703761691660132, 0.1057585184639484, 0.0, 0.8024332301515325, 0.037207814222319516, 0.28554638667810744, 1.2042986039934407, 1.0051021002732845, 2.0572590714200114, 1.6036341731797463, 0.43948005730892, 0.06357776831387188, 0.0, 3.893414840744651, 0.37792810257189263, 0.28293104947419073, 1.6974529500544686, 0.0, 1.7281658810201825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3430395423430484, 0.9154046948667615, 0.06475716267161906, 0.0002758815278191228, 0.162347200842345, 1.5323328201504014, 0.0, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.004141604910607796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3521667907427571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11161885388424365, 0.15590170664191183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8648277720580708, 0.0, 0.22114008935460674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03481117957626761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0601729990112827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.974145970608413, "coverage": 0.9998349779556753, "baseline_score": 35.01761807987311, "spot_peer_score": 7.821672244370001, "peer_archived_score": 8.974145970608413, "baseline_archived_score": 35.01761807987311, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.821672244370001 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667861196.501664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667861196.501664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7176240910872926, 0.2823759089127074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 573, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Blake Gates Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)), born August 5, 1986, is an American attorney, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, author, president of the Thiel Foundation, and former COO of Thiel Capital. Masters co-wrote [Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_to_One) with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He is a candidate in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona)\n\nMasters will participate in [the Republican primary for this election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona#Republican_primary) on August 2, 2022. Masters has been [endorsed by former president Donald Trump.](https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3509966-trump-endorses-masters-in-arizona-senate-gop-primary/)\n\n[The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona) will take place on November 8, 2022." }, { "id": 11203, "title": "Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?", "short_title": "Nadal Grand Slams 2022", "url_title": "Nadal Grand Slams 2022", "slug": "nadal-grand-slams-2022", "author_id": 126809, "author_username": "geethepredictor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T18:19:42.328468Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.096795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11203, "title": "Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-06-03T18:19:42.328468Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After making it to the semifinals of the first three grand slam tournaments, Nadal now turns his attention to the US Open, the final grand slam of the tennis calendar year. Although Nadal is [18-0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Rafael_Nadal_tennis_season) in grand slams this year, he was forced to [withdraw from Wimbledon before his semifinal match](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/sport/rafael-nadal-wimbledon-withdraws-injury/index.html#:~:text=Rafael%20Nadal%20withdrew%20from%20Wimbledon,due%20to%20an%20abdominal%20injury.) , raising further questions about the 36 year old's ability to remain healthy and compete during the US Open. However, despite such concerns, Nadal will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win the event due to his recent success at the event coupled with the absence of Novak Djokovic.", "resolution_criteria": "If Nadal is able to advance to the semifinals of the tournament, the question will resolve as **Yes**. If he loses or withdraws before the semifinals for any reason, the question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662422092.474447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662422092.474447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.32382127778676517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.784826378994784, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.607495698368916, 0.43517894171176874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.04289084712097685, 0.12637014538023153, 0.02591031830222411, 1.9632899685834158, 0.19330086451826228, 0.16963114878242336, 0.07706906309393233, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27352346147739587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.20305441612328, "coverage": 0.9760376266527645, "baseline_score": -55.880086945917405, "spot_peer_score": 0.6803665753375753, "peer_archived_score": 15.20305441612328, "baseline_archived_score": -55.880086945917405, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6803665753375753 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662411525.567282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662411525.567282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44106821411805797, 0.558931785881942 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After making it to the semifinals of the first three grand slam tournaments, Nadal now turns his attention to the US Open, the final grand slam of the tennis calendar year. Although Nadal is [18-0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Rafael_Nadal_tennis_season) in grand slams this year, he was forced to [withdraw from Wimbledon before his semifinal match](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/sport/rafael-nadal-wimbledon-withdraws-injury/index.html#:~:text=Rafael%20Nadal%20withdrew%20from%20Wimbledon,due%20to%20an%20abdominal%20injury.) , raising further questions about the 36 year old's ability to remain healthy and compete during the US Open. However, despite such concerns, Nadal will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win the event due to his recent success at the event coupled with the absence of Novak Djokovic." }, { "id": 11199, "title": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "short_title": "Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030", "url_title": "Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030", "slug": "gary-marcus-agi-bet-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T02:39:38.587942Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:49:11.971403Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 173, "html_metadata_json": { "title": "Will AI Prove Gary Marcus Wrong by 2030?", "description": "Can AI master cooking, coding, math proofs, and novel analysis—exceeding Marcus' benchmark predictions before 2030?" }, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11199, "title": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-03T02:39:38.587942Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T18:49:38.602430Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T18:49:38.602430Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.\n\nThey are,\n\n* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if more than two of the above listed questions on Metaculus resolve positively, and negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11199, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758617341.459984, "end_time": 1760276429.348233, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758617341.459984, "end_time": 1760276429.348233, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8534101777069232 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8504783892204534, 2.325867420969763e-05, 0.0, 0.2029171539432976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7148333437480758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011167496055832114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006942080460519941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024320255692834337, 0.15945415825680123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05404735978760427, 0.0, 0.014860655936507523, 6.549372438616996e-05, 0.44325134305746516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.435456533817397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020809940201179592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026130642102831718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006157742038794623, 0.0006842313611207619, 0.46331992786487186, 0.2227941583641423, 0.038636092920491825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5989913115594742, 0.48631112482777045, 0.0016142244466733388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031710335252042476, 0.02177091863240198, 0.2690881227057933, 0.0, 0.15182800476634828, 1.1121230219580116, 0.016343612033202247, 0.0039834482142441915, 0.00500711418352812, 0.0740739555022113, 1.939931355555042, 1.2358235529277826, 4.678545468175812, 2.6347821419511765, 5.753711733836276 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289044.379047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289044.379047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08150368846994205, 0.918496311530058 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 473, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.\n\nThey are,\n\n* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)" }, { "id": 11198, "title": "Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?", "short_title": "AI verification of math proofs by 2030", "url_title": "AI verification of math proofs by 2030", "slug": "ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T01:34:42.398944Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T08:09:08.501491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 140, 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fifth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI capable of taking random proofs from any journal in the [top 15 English-language mathematics journals according to the Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) and converting them into code, such as [Lean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_(proof_assistant)) or [Coq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coq), suitable for formal verification by simply running the code with aid of an appropriate proof assistant in at least 90.0% of cases.\n\nThe AI must be capable enough such that, when provided a file corresponding to a published mathematics paper, it can read the paper and construct formal proofs corresponding to the proofs in the mathematics paper, in the way that a very competent mathematician would be able to do, if that mathematician was familiar with formal verification and proof assistants.\n\nIf the [Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) is discontinued before 2030, another reputable ranking of mathematics journals will take its place according to the best judgement of the Metaculus administrators, and will be used in the course of resolving this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758617234.562841, "end_time": 1759998572.962862, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758617234.562841, "end_time": 1759998572.962862, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8452621493037998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012672703297969238, 0.0, 0.002512034008108981, 0.0, 0.0008489358138541033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0045822019105017245, 0.0, 0.01448733452861442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15908439753921105, 0.0, 0.060623639087390144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37466666666590154, 0.0, 0.01889469055248197, 0.09406054911938178, 0.3557854170218064, 6.270444297244818e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.232809723883435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012594524045710233, 0.0, 0.26928949035153055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018877722000254014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08276703042508432, 0.0037798961682738792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16741380870832118, 0.0030945933634633337, 0.003423546585154462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39444170962328534, 0.049488311253004846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007683192008228146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041466564029139, 0.10530140902738502, 0.21793518332215897, 0.0, 0.04135164307819022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07046821187178444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12405594306317562, 0.0, 0.029755366252089015, 0.18103747063202874, 0.0, 0.7613347429576707, 0.007208347096498583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.463126253834159, 0.009306164471308392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0937380289828127, 0.4832583505976374, 1.435056493724271, 0.19756391753823033, 0.20874441441824726, 3.446558592286574, 1.1255874456463721, 0.18691931010172197, 0.459515173752352, 3.590498667468375 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288590.060172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288590.060172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23323647466236708, 0.7667635253376329 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 404, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fifth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification." }, { "id": 11191, "title": "Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?", "short_title": "Invasion of Ukraine from the Northwest", "url_title": "Invasion of Ukraine from the Northwest", "slug": "invasion-of-ukraine-from-the-northwest", "author_id": 127385, "author_username": "CivilMarigold", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-02T16:18:07.621656Z", "published_at": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.861539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11191, "title": "Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-02T16:18:07.621656Z", "open_time": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-23T04:01:47.345643Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-23T04:01:47.345643Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "So far during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian troops have crossed the northern land border of Ukraine roughly from the central north and northeast. Starting from late March, Russia moved its forces further to the east.\n\nHowever, in the telegram channel [Беларускі Гаюн](https://t.me/Hajun_BY) there have been reports of military vehicle movement towards Brest in western Belarus, suggesting that a new front somewhere along the western border between Ukraine and Belarus is a possibility. The objective for such an invasion could be e.g. to interrupt the supply routes from Poland.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts, at any point between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672524538.896852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672524538.896852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018568959028776536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.950618010618797, 0.18151865870128317, 0.11024450140559625, 0.3139977725922227, 0.5622989307388729, 0.0, 0.2004510291350626, 0.0, 0.03341826197861836, 0.10552652478026833, 0.0615444155608672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002071361526079036, 0.031120859904868445, 0.0, 0.00720767036690427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028890667185141237, 0.00784546800835153, 0.01550759793289652, 0.0, 0.007060531117707437, 0.0038686338976175014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05561064916004925, 0.03803607965496475, 0.0, 0.012879116712703483, 0.0013022642992341074, 0.0050682898931823745, 0.004512021165447785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022331909023500837, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003539921380459027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02405118580334803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.74958404700879, "coverage": 0.9999099030096182, "baseline_score": 67.33470725024627, "spot_peer_score": 15.496198933177942, "peer_archived_score": 10.74958404700879, "baseline_archived_score": 67.33470725024627, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.496198933177942 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672524538.919091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672524538.919091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "So far during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian troops have crossed the northern land border of Ukraine roughly from the central north and northeast. Starting from late March, Russia moved its forces further to the east.\n\nHowever, in the telegram channel [Беларускі Гаюн](https://t.me/Hajun_BY) there have been reports of military vehicle movement towards Brest in western Belarus, suggesting that a new front somewhere along the western border between Ukraine and Belarus is a possibility. The objective for such an invasion could be e.g. to interrupt the supply routes from Poland." }, { "id": 11190, "title": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "short_title": "Conservative Party (PC) Majority in ON 2022", "url_title": "Conservative Party (PC) Majority in ON 2022", "slug": "conservative-party-pc-majority-in-on-2022", "author_id": 112326, "author_username": "thatMikeBishop", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-02T15:50:37.978041Z", "published_at": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.566863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-02T18:42:12.316434Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11190, "title": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "created_at": "2022-06-02T15:50:37.978041Z", "open_time": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-02T21:29:25.247228Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-02T21:29:25.247228Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polls close June 2, 2022. \n\nWill Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain their majority in Ontario?\n\n[Party leaders' political fate at stake in Ontario's election.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-party-leaders-fate-1.6473361)", "resolution_criteria": "Question resolve yes if [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics) reports PC has won a majority.", "fine_print": "If CBC reports \"Yes, PC has won a majority,\" but publishes something contradictory within 24 hours of the initial announcement, the more recent claim will be favoured. 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"question": { "id": 11188, "title": "Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-02T09:02:23.832550Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:44:47.169482Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:44:47.169482Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fourth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI writing code that clearly indicates the capability to do either of the following:\n\n(1) Given a natural language description of a complex computer program comparable to the non-research related ideas found in [this list of programming projects](https://github.com/vicky002/1000_Projects), the AI is able to write a computer program that satisfies the description to a satisfactory degree in at least 90.0% of cases. A computer program is said to have satisfied the conditions of a natural language description if there is a consensus among Metaculus admins that the code satisfies the conditions, without any major bugs. Minor bugs, such as the code occasionally crashing, will not disqualify any AI, as these are common even for professional human programmers.\n\n(2) The AI is able to perform (1) when given the ability to interact with a non-expert user. A non-expert user is defined as someone who credibly reports _not_ being able to write code that satisfies the conditions of these project ideas, but who _is_ able to operate a computer well enough to understand whether a given computer program passes the requirements to a satisfactory degree.\n\nImportantly, as per Marcus' constraint, we will not allow the AI to simply glue together code from existing libraries. It must generate code _de novo_, meaning that a plagiarism detector on par with the [Copyleaks code plagiarism checker](https://copyleaks.com/code-plagiarism-checker/) would not flag the code as definitively indicating cheating in more than 5% of cases", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11188, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758645969.164919, "end_time": 1760680027.650293, "forecaster_count": 189, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.773 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758645969.164919, "end_time": 1760680027.650293, "forecaster_count": 189, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.773 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8574588075205419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03434843556958069, 0.0, 6.608151784210381e-05, 0.0640733290652542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3333379968059178, 0.030454162105468877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011653588285498788, 0.11964117992890637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030632227149990533, 0.0, 0.00044680519006043293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28429834317677055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6277079110147517, 0.0, 0.0, 5.94695574196533e-05, 2.950053100791728e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18156664436762932, 0.0, 0.3397019706533031, 0.04222588570733979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007648293850357676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010038156876938046, 0.0, 0.00014356142015762874, 0.00012949146820851, 0.0, 0.006539273549203023, 0.0, 0.0022626180770238457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9874480260288426, 0.08023825165225637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023344541481023064, 0.009165196600160373, 0.10003812230331607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000231774156431287, 0.0, 0.8962414849364777, 0.01080028639039229, 0.3762663690497926, 1.832072931056727, 0.0, 0.18811893184186287, 0.0, 0.004334698497364166, 0.2097751287496264, 0.0, 0.1612891085509737, 0.0, 0.00849633800651666, 0.37940553100318875, 0.0, 0.0035656222071338206, 0.5232117040466175, 0.1533996629048362, 2.2112656468408667, 0.19723262054957091, 0.13415627803606972, 0.6632903441879627, 0.3799244217575331, 4.13868933756171, 0.7897004428638255, 1.186277497315121, 1.083294359402136, 7.212064188125401 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287913.542705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 221, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287913.542705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 221, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15559413797239308, 0.8444058620276069 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 657, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). 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Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:58:44.235294Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance), commonly known as J.D. 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Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American conservative politician, commentator, and author, and former U.S. Marine, corporate lawyer, and venture capitalist. He is best known for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which attracted significant press attention during the 2016 election. \n\nVance is the Republican nominee in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio), having announced his candidacy to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Rob Portman on July 1, 2021. On May 3, 2022, he won [the Republican primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio#Republican_primary) and will face Democratic nominee [Tim Ryan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Ryan_(Ohio_politician)) in the November general election." }, { "id": 11179, "title": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "short_title": "AI as a competent cook before 2030", "url_title": "AI as a competent cook before 2030", "slug": "ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:19:03.384779Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T12:39:36.187561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 322, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11179, "title": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:19:03.384779Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' third prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending [Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark](https://www.fastcompany.com/1568187/wozniak-could-computer-make-cup-coffee))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1st 2030 the available evidence indicates that there exists a robot capable of cooking in at least three kitchen environments that it has not seen before during training, preparing at least twenty non-trivial dishes. Furthermore, the robot must not have a failure rate above 1% while cooking dishes. A \"failure\" is anything that prevents the robot from making the intended edible and familiar dish. The robot need not perform any specific task, as long as the available evidence strongly indicates that it would be capable of fulfilling the criteria. If no publicly-available information suggests that a robot fulfilling the criteria exists, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The dishes must be non-trivial and must have come from an ordinary cookbook, and in particular, they must combine at least three different ingredients, and involve some degree of food preparation more complex than placing the ingredients together onto a plate and microwaving them.\n\nTo satisfy these conditions, the robot must be capable of operating in ordinary kitchens that are familiar to humans. It will be allowed to learn the placement of items in the kitchen, and how to use them, before working, just as a human would need time to learn how to operate in a kitchen. However, it must not take the robot more than one week of runtime learning to figure out where things are and how to use them in the kitchen.\n\nThe speed of the robot must also be comparable to a real human cook, ensuring that the dishes are not served unintentionally cold or stale. More precisely, it must be able to prepare meals within 130% of the average time that a professional human cook would prepare the meals. If there is no data available on average human cook times for these meals -- which could, potentially, be revealed by the expected time to prepare as given in a cookbook -- Metaculites will do their best to consult professional human cooks and ask for their best judgement.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate robot met these criteria.", "post_id": 11179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758683750.094629, "end_time": 1760467751.721625, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758683750.094629, "end_time": 1760467751.721625, "forecaster_count": 281, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.29503970907682897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5107901919917632, 0.4525392349206765, 0.6833814682820858, 0.7600812876137184, 0.7863581156956196, 1.1806274587362724, 0.05666431537799216, 0.9145867830260715, 2.0106927944076807, 0.0, 2.8227045093664245, 0.5696368919032733, 1.0846331421703752, 0.0004672426043964328, 0.18949630682518773, 2.1119985409474955, 0.3792421501509049, 0.8859537221719335, 0.0527807609369743, 1.3521230684944743, 2.0471596158611742, 3.239961896325515e-06, 0.16091155834254153, 0.0, 0.31393073226219415, 0.16473121038105076, 0.13158498708527655, 0.07020620127688422, 0.1140749142111465, 0.0, 0.5450210596330524, 5.3552322894396196e-05, 0.2929988014677943, 0.7653612044204778, 0.0934511065664126, 1.6564518777372292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029250294313364213, 0.0, 1.2201714540759192, 0.010936976401312264, 0.0704496477320538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4317881007278904, 0.0, 0.31900284350542735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43817403042756237, 0.00023951252618940113, 0.00042515590787964254, 0.0015532209479221968, 0.6161689903175323, 0.003939612247030226, 0.001408801991660901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033980412488929315, 0.0004863755979267869, 0.0, 0.06539001116775899, 0.17732727616304012, 0.0393481879091874, 0.02296858250173322, 0.9705871478389148, 0.017001102675058905, 0.0, 0.05278149528219701, 0.9420652863532543, 0.005472210813800364, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0315255567444934, 0.01892305580574086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23850979567506556, 4.9804759120093445e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021252928840219631, 0.006247157301517383, 0.0, 0.0010991916387715383, 0.00011370435375142768, 0.0, 0.2205880448475655, 0.0, 0.004904846544493005, 0.027048920656619405, 0.5793897560862264, 0.41574595824859784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.852621789142606 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289716.56159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289716.56159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.792769887009004, 0.207230112990996 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 858, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' third prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending [Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark](https://www.fastcompany.com/1568187/wozniak-could-computer-make-cup-coffee))" }, { "id": 11178, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on January 1, 2023", "url_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on January 1, 2023", "slug": "boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-january-1-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:18:09.181783Z", "published_at": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.030633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 341, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11178, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:18:09.181783Z", "open_time": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-06T04:15:17.943651Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-06T04:15:17.943651Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13127/next-uk-tory-leader-after-truss/)\n\n----\n\n[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\n\nAs of June 2022, [it is reported](https://www.itv.com/news/2022-05-31/how-many-tories-have-submitted-letters-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson) that many Conservative MPs have submitted letters to the 1922 Committee indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party. It has been [suggested](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-leadership-challenge-tory-mps-pm-resign-confidence-vote-1659563) that a leadership challenge is increasingly likely.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on January 1, 2023, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. 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It has been [suggested](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-leadership-challenge-tory-mps-pm-resign-confidence-vote-1659563) that a leadership challenge is increasingly likely." }, { "id": 11177, "title": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "short_title": "AI book comprehension before 2030", "url_title": "AI book comprehension before 2030", "slug": "ai-book-comprehension-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T01:34:53.990263Z", "published_at": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T00:22:52.430609Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11177, "title": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T01:34:53.990263Z", "open_time": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T23:19:07.075000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T23:19:07.075000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' second prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in [Rebooting AI](http://rebooting.ai/).\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [NarrativeQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07040) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> To encourage progress on deeper comprehension of language, we present a new dataset and set of tasks in which the reader must answer questions about stories by reading entire books or movie scripts. These tasks are designed so that successfully answering their questions requires understanding the underlying narrative rather than relying on shallow pattern matching or salience.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the NarrativeQA dataset when it is required to read the full books to answer the questions (as opposed to plot summaries or other spoilers). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep reading comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nThe human baseline Bleu-4 score for NarrativeQA was obtained by giving humans summaries of the books, and then asking them the same questions that are asked of the computer (which is not given any summary). The BLEU-4 score on the full-story setting was measured to be 19.65, according to table 6 in [the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.07040.pdf). The human-baseline Rouge-L score is 57.02, which is far better than some of the results achieved by Machine Learning models. For example, [Mou et al., 2021](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.03826.pdf) obtains a Rouge-L score of just 29.21 in the full-story setting. \n\nImportantly, any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these books during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these books). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified. \n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the novels were published. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758660185.434915, "end_time": 1760593884.930146, "forecaster_count": 334, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758660185.434915, "end_time": 1760593884.930146, "forecaster_count": 334, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9815733644026758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3611451865243626e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09375160303780716, 0.057935887836203584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1302279865956131e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012315727177839632, 1.2589265775486017e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037459150900532854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006921783651190088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012686656495383877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020451457860734355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7805938582504499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007197634717639907, 0.17327793377828873, 3.309171728386522e-06, 0.015468788925332906, 0.0, 8.542159643237502e-08, 0.00046266580744669974, 0.002834206609552833, 0.0, 0.0, 4.874834500388051e-07, 0.08314104598288746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11612291727702659, 0.040391023504821724, 0.0007331110303726259, 0.003223643370817489, 0.002343842377147665, 0.18062372369674418, 0.007751979581315225, 0.21087918014212936, 1.6409444987178183, 31.628041164447207 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288858.02652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288858.02652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012271665198482329, 0.9877283348015177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 937, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' second prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in [Rebooting AI](http://rebooting.ai/).\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [NarrativeQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07040) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> To encourage progress on deeper comprehension of language, we present a new dataset and set of tasks in which the reader must answer questions about stories by reading entire books or movie scripts. These tasks are designed so that successfully answering their questions requires understanding the underlying narrative rather than relying on shallow pattern matching or salience." }, { "id": 11175, "title": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "short_title": "AI movie comprehension before 2030", "url_title": "AI movie comprehension before 2030", "slug": "ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T00:20:31.156032Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:25:47.056318Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 281, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T15:46:23.159625Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11175, "title": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T00:20:31.156032Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:42:08.758000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:42:08.758000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11175, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758473526.639668, "end_time": 1759506543.430341, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758473526.639668, "end_time": 1759506543.430341, "forecaster_count": 207, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.954248549855535 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04950072449156138, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0815443850497475e-05, 0.04424261118443651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0693944708347432e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.571645239298034e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.412007664451375e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3215371951884323e-06, 0.0002276970433247734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2223737301941434, 1.803145266257081e-05, 0.0, 0.0003407469860394805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0051074195088788915, 0.0, 0.0, 3.927769007629283e-05, 0.0, 0.00179054216119608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.376506105470732e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004608269757485944, 0.0, 0.20571859349777696, 0.7552106286678907, 0.6096015384593874, 0.00635816022264458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138820455964174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018961900054921186, 0.16898009416206475, 0.0, 0.0029142650929117326, 0.0, 0.037502622611827574, 0.00021096892961745226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.112935439635069, 0.5594539021780239, 0.19800596701472967, 0.8847842935938015, 0.00011211426900471286, 0.001443663345454219, 2.0073360860634395, 0.2581304714820023, 0.29496685251425236, 1.1312074436533335, 19.39872800584918 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287696.255736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287696.255736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.020601115531438174, 0.9793988844685618 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 691, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators." }, { "id": 11164, "title": "Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?", "short_title": "25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031", "url_title": "25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031", "slug": "25m-killed-by-pandemic-2022-to-2031", "author_id": 127590, "author_username": "Wombat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-31T04:38:51.503584Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.355985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32676, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament Long-Term", "slug": "bio-long-term", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl_ZNPAenH.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:20:25.767046Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-18T19:48:18.894475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 25 million people have died from an infectious pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2 and its descendants) from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2031, according to excess mortality figures compiled by what Metaculus judges to be the most credible of following sources:\n\n* The World Health Organisation (or its successor)\n\n* Credible media reports/models\n\n* Academic studies/models\n\nIf there are several reports/models judged credible by Metaculus admins, the resolution will be determined by the median of the reported deaths.\n\nVariants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, **do not count** — with no exceptions. However, novel pathogens that are the result of [antigenic shift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift) **do count.** Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently [only](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2017.0141) known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an [\"abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans\"](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm). Contrast this with [antigenic drift](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8669911/), which is the mechanism that produces variants for pathogens like SARS-CoV-2", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736535165.680995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736535165.680995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0969379751320062 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10068140974826195, 4.897945288579705, 2.0310497132726053, 5.501389086960076, 3.8072664905116826, 1.235219917840406, 1.338370421579666, 1.012733049123192, 0.06873251048380091, 0.8207228686965581, 3.5355763301404375, 0.7486359985565731, 1.4893279879727794, 0.00861472306139786, 0.00034965783492865385, 1.2381342904046257, 0.0011001752623413822, 0.5613706395460594, 0.23489067348479517, 0.0, 0.6914000825707944, 0.13608267477410124, 0.5894520799921296, 0.0, 0.8405815650864006, 0.8087280837069472, 0.0, 0.0011098526900971315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1791389633172824, 0.013682789650037563, 0.0, 0.003877981735338695, 0.0008304212642815728, 0.003154094366951716, 4.149025874859957e-06, 0.33114384878004555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.151167939833295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0680873660383523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2663625194100566, 0.00014978118560191836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035896065589321566, 9.049209642506627e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0371936784683246, 0.0, 0.06512826230230519, 0.0, 0.22049447794744223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016837933141600642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19300869254719596 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288379.43493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288379.43493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9860637660172848, 0.013936233982715198 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade." }, { "id": 11163, "title": "Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?", "short_title": "Maher votes for Republican President by 2042", "url_title": "Maher votes for Republican President by 2042", "slug": "maher-votes-for-republican-president-by-2042", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-30T22:13:04.826455Z", "published_at": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T23:45:51.871165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11163, "title": "Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?", "created_at": "2022-05-30T22:13:04.826455Z", "open_time": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher) is an American political commentator and the host of the talk show [Real Time with Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher). Maher has called himself a [liberal, libertarian, and progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher#Politics). Maher has traditionally supported Democrats. He is an atheist who has criticized Christianity and the Republican Party, called the Second Amendment \"bullshit\", supports legalized abortion, and supported Obama's health care reforms. He has been criticized from the left before for his [criticism of Islam](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vln9D81eO60) and his [support of Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rashida-tlaib-suggests-boycott-of-bill-mahers-show-for-hosts-position-on-israel). Recently, Maher [had a segment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg) in which he stated that the recent uptick in Americans who self-identify as LGBT, especially as transgender, is driven in part by social contagion, and discussed how a lawyer for the ACLU wanted to stop the circulation of Abigail Shirer's Irreversible Damage. For this some people have claimed that he is [not a liberal](https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/628fba3966d6b500218f5f34/bill-maher-anti-lgbtq-transgender-comments/) and have called for [boycotts](https://news.yahoo.com/bill-maher-gone-too-far-210951801.html) of his show. Maher has had [politicians, public intellectuals, and others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher_episodes) from all over the political spectrum on his show, and describes himself as an advocate of free speech. Recently, Maher had on [New York City mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat and former Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHrLx3jGH_c), and the two criticized the more hardline parts of the political left in the United States.\n\nIn a [recent appearance on Ben Shapiro's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvqUxYSRapo) Maher said that he has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past, specifically Bob Dole in 1996 and for John McCain in the 2000 Republican Primary (and says he may have voted for him in the general election had he won the nomination). He also says the following:\n\n>As long as the Republicans are a party who, in my view, does not take seriously the emergency of climate change, and I'm not sure if they even believe in American democracy anymore . . . as long as those two issues are what they are for Republicans, I don't think they're even save-able. Whereas, the Democrats, maybe I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but I think they still are save-able.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bill Maher publicly claims he has voted for a Republican for the Presidency for an election occurring after January 1, 2022, and before January 1, 2042. If by January 1, 2042 a reasonable search finds no evidence of such a statement, this question resolves as **No**. No proof of actual voting record is required, the question will resolve based on Maher's public statements only. If it is unclear whether a public statement by Maher qualifies admins may use their discretion or resolve this question as **Ambiguous**. \n\nWhether Maher ceases to make public statements before the question resolves is immaterial to this question, the question only depends on the existence of a qualifying public statement from Maher himself at the resolution date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11163, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757115941.516829, "end_time": 1758904444.07029, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757115941.516829, "end_time": 1758904444.07029, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.44740332255727344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.704478431100838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1774973272062352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2506192375815268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07001158786146168, 0.11525585627893538, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.8938799102698805, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9760448320650337, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9612061900598177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289171.330445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289171.330445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7227286171639496, 0.27727138283605035 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher) is an American political commentator and the host of the talk show [Real Time with Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher). Maher has called himself a [liberal, libertarian, and progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher#Politics). Maher has traditionally supported Democrats. He is an atheist who has criticized Christianity and the Republican Party, called the Second Amendment \"bullshit\", supports legalized abortion, and supported Obama's health care reforms. He has been criticized from the left before for his [criticism of Islam](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vln9D81eO60) and his [support of Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rashida-tlaib-suggests-boycott-of-bill-mahers-show-for-hosts-position-on-israel). Recently, Maher [had a segment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg) in which he stated that the recent uptick in Americans who self-identify as LGBT, especially as transgender, is driven in part by social contagion, and discussed how a lawyer for the ACLU wanted to stop the circulation of Abigail Shirer's Irreversible Damage. For this some people have claimed that he is [not a liberal](https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/628fba3966d6b500218f5f34/bill-maher-anti-lgbtq-transgender-comments/) and have called for [boycotts](https://news.yahoo.com/bill-maher-gone-too-far-210951801.html) of his show. Maher has had [politicians, public intellectuals, and others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher_episodes) from all over the political spectrum on his show, and describes himself as an advocate of free speech. Recently, Maher had on [New York City mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat and former Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHrLx3jGH_c), and the two criticized the more hardline parts of the political left in the United States.\n\nIn a [recent appearance on Ben Shapiro's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvqUxYSRapo) Maher said that he has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past, specifically Bob Dole in 1996 and for John McCain in the 2000 Republican Primary (and says he may have voted for him in the general election had he won the nomination). He also says the following:\n\n>As long as the Republicans are a party who, in my view, does not take seriously the emergency of climate change, and I'm not sure if they even believe in American democracy anymore . . . as long as those two issues are what they are for Republicans, I don't think they're even save-able. Whereas, the Democrats, maybe I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but I think they still are save-able." }, { "id": 11129, "title": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "short_title": "GOP POTUS 2025-2033", "url_title": "GOP POTUS 2025-2033", "slug": "gop-potus-2025-2033", "author_id": 127590, "author_username": "Wombat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-30T08:33:09.478726Z", "published_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T17:27:21.549462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-10-31T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11129, "title": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "created_at": "2022-05-30T08:33:09.478726Z", "open_time": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-16T21:32:15.041575Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-16T21:32:15.041575Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-10-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-10-31T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the U.S. the president is elected through the Electoral College to a four-year term. \n\nThe winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Their term will last until January 20, 2029, when the the winner of the 2028 presidential election will likely assume office until January 20, 2033.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the person / people who are the President of the United States during the entirety of the following two presidential terms (which are predicted to last between January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2033) is/are member/s of the Republican Party.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, if the elections / office are contested, the legitimate President of the United States will be the person the majority of the U.S. House of Representatives recognizes as the U.S. head of state. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, assume the powers of the presidency transfer instantaneously. So if a Republican President dies and their Republican VP takes over as U.S. head of state, the question would still resolve positively if it achieves all other resolution criteria.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if another party controls the presidency during either of the next two terms or a Republican president leaves the party / starts their own new party while in office.\n\nThe question will resolve ambiguous if presidential term lengths are increased or decreased by more than 10% of their standard length.", "post_id": 11129, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758688220.71826, "end_time": 1758794884.244386, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758688220.71826, "end_time": 1758794884.244386, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4504914142042998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0629792571028604, 0.05030828626171377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7740582225217716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05301110107094136, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1787681197234341, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 3.141162260121259, 0.0, 0.03492060446249783, 0.32264669677726143, 0.03126931611125853, 1.1862159963914103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09106386057041876, 2.3387847158181594, 0.0, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.0, 0.0, 1.045700741795986, 0.3591140165384702, 0.23304744144606535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8802727632228936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29153707102401094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4837672471425741, 0.14409911274774573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4205524304686736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19934892197747325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21564328479102138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.419788717859876 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289141.570607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289141.570607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8447693932822299, 0.15523060671777014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 280, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the U.S. the president is elected through the Electoral College to a four-year term. \n\nThe winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Their term will last until January 20, 2029, when the the winner of the 2028 presidential election will likely assume office until January 20, 2033." }, { "id": 11128, "title": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "short_title": "Elizabeth Kim Wins NY-10 Democratic Primary", "url_title": "Elizabeth Kim Wins NY-10 Democratic Primary", "slug": "elizabeth-kim-wins-ny-10-democratic-primary", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-29T22:39:15.774986Z", "published_at": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.357343Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11128, "title": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-29T22:39:15.774986Z", "open_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-01T17:58:58.873854Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-01T17:58:58.873854Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Elizabeth_Kim_(New_York)),\n\n> Elizabeth Kim (Democratic Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 10th Congressional District. She declared candidacy for the Democratic primary scheduled on August 23, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elizabeth Kim is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for the 2022 election for New York's 10th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11128, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1661189423.240304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1661189423.240304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.044904203380330146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.693553836697863, 0.733980797520551, 0.04090287458335228, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004541723449504015, 0.0029154755316827537, 0.0, 0.0014293860576454706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002087949332596925, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0034020563898552146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47058026059072494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.927702654623545, "coverage": 0.9999712777392759, "baseline_score": 92.0194986448265, "spot_peer_score": -7.544593343758027, "peer_archived_score": 21.927702654623545, "baseline_archived_score": 92.0194986448265, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.544593343758027 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1661189423.269982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1661189423.269982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Elizabeth_Kim_(New_York)),\n\n> Elizabeth Kim (Democratic Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 10th Congressional District. 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[...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?\n\nWang Wenbin replied,\n\n> China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say.", "resolution_criteria": "This question is conditioned on China launching an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US responding militarily to defend Taiwan against an invasion. In other words, this question will only resolve non-ambiguously if [this other Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-to-respond-if-taiwan-invaded-before-2035/) resolves positively, which is itself conditioned on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/).\n\nThis question resolves positively if, in direct retaliation to a United States attack on China, China attacks some part of the United States' internationally recognized territory within one year of the United States first attacking China. China is said to have attacked the United States if a member of the Politburo Standing Committee or the paramount leader of China approves an offensive physical attack on United States infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, _inside United States territory_, in direct retaliation to a US attack on China, and the attack is actually carried out. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate American nationals, will count.\n\nIn case there is a dispute over whether China indeed attacked the United States, veracity will be determined via a consensus of Western media outlets", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758353647.338524, "end_time": 1763359917.443184, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.836 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758353647.338524, "end_time": 1763359917.443184, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.836 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6280359366581483 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6647760784297148, 0.2328286897847674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14745299305671453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08705735697020771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6120973221645231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0884440561122328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8507015894970668, 1.2823747070804343, 0.0, 0.0029775632411544795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10199253854404217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003032842438836913, 0.0, 0.2345938406048458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10307711256592256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047509846620025095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023129238321752357, 0.003999058311460654, 0.0, 0.7125100740500641, 4.5381326177588396e-05, 0.04841941391236573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003902182941719444, 0.054448085886577645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3752136785427326, 0.005685764360241359, 1.0069669006407913, 0.41725292962337807, 0.0, 2.1438013327550203, 0.47872851710178854, 0.020364865732976283, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8343558252610102, 0.1254651096883766, 0.7589994126792452, 0.0020195075193606676, 0.8216760837616193, 1.0447272868643105, 0.17414983389360736, 0.32237433852814334, 0.16206564897452044, 0.31030006751260425, 1.079285554926683, 0.005306636631937737, 0.026832572661105305, 0.1952946624268247, 0.11047689973738539, 1.816042394841318, 0.5865341943648599, 0.0, 0.0, 5.5222046741725685e-05, 1.021293592098335, 0.0, 0.09071577818311176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14060354081914536, 0.38259652488420426, 0.0, 0.060680548819585144, 1.5779155584938667 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289225.582768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289225.582768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3275578810704367, 0.6724421189295633 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 400, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse [asked](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202205/t20220523_10691505.html),\n\n> President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried to take control of Taiwan. [...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?\n\nWang Wenbin replied,\n\n> China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say." } ] }
