Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3740
{ "count": 6377, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3760", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3720", "results": [ { "id": 15650, "title": "Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?", "short_title": "Venezuelan Civil War", "url_title": "Venezuelan Civil War", "slug": "venezuelan-civil-war", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-30T14:35:44.471578Z", "published_at": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T18:32:19.759891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15650, "title": "Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-03-30T14:35:44.471578Z", "open_time": "2023-04-02T17:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-04T17:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-04T17:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a [national crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.\n\nVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has warned of a [civil war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47112284), and [multiple](https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-venezuela-becoming-a-failed-state/) [major](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/opinion/contributors/how-to-avoid-civil-war-in-venezuela.html) [media](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-specter-of-civil-war-in-venezuela/2017/08/13/aaa07852-7ecd-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html) [publications](https://time.com/4931053/its-time-to-plan-for-civil-war-in-venezuela/) have discussed the possibility as well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Venezuela is listed as having been in ‘Civil War’ or 'Civil War' mixed with any other conflict category for any time before 2050 according to the [‘WPR Countries Currently at War’ list](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war).\n\nThis question also resolves as Yes there is overwhelming global consensus that Venezuela is experiencing civil war. This is operationalized as fulfilling both of the following conditions: 1) The BBC and the New York Times report Venezuela as experiencing civil war. 2) The UN makes a statement referring to Venezuela as experiencing civil war.", "fine_print": "If Venezuela ceases to exist for any reason, the question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 15650, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762713129.553883, "end_time": 1764891903.245749, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762713129.553883, "end_time": 1764891903.245749, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5449012661896895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6469044956700429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3917019996792684, 0.0, 0.08543252822519284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4303990296633425, 0.0, 0.03126931611125853, 0.04791750235716968, 0.0, 0.017282230312143713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7740582225217716, 0.006043168560687309, 0.019501694237860755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7655415656278954, 0.008438284300033617, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36390989884417885, 0.07095202666684558, 0.005034190088132767, 0.31430815491989345, 0.05852891229315346, 1.671829676535936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988487450611914, 0.0, 1.013155376034681, 0.0, 0.8264440272789282, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1993489219774733, 0.23769977659423439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45120860633737064, 0.0, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.6351213730797269, 0.4035447610956698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7433890782192205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2925703873652975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7437192396632729 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290208.329388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290208.329388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6724086781302702, 0.32759132186972983 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For many years, Venezuela has been suffering a [national crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela) that includes hyperinflation, the decline of oil prices, frequent protests and brutal gang violence. As a result, millions of Venezuelans have fled the country.\n\nVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has warned of a [civil war](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47112284), and [multiple](https://globalsecurityreview.com/is-venezuela-becoming-a-failed-state/) [major](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/opinion/contributors/how-to-avoid-civil-war-in-venezuela.html) [media](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-specter-of-civil-war-in-venezuela/2017/08/13/aaa07852-7ecd-11e7-a669-b400c5c7e1cc_story.html) [publications](https://time.com/4931053/its-time-to-plan-for-civil-war-in-venezuela/) have discussed the possibility as well." }, { "id": 15646, "title": "Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?", "short_title": "US Gold Confiscation before 2035", "url_title": "US Gold Confiscation before 2035", "slug": "us-gold-confiscation-before-2035", "author_id": 139161, "author_username": "Zaldath", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-29T17:48:08.064410Z", "published_at": "2023-04-01T18:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T11:10:17.382597Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-01T18:55:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-01T18:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15646, "title": "Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-03-29T17:48:08.064410Z", "open_time": "2023-04-01T18:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-02T09:32:55.045336Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-02T09:32:55.045336Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Executive Order 6102](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102), signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, prohibited the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the United States. The order was aimed at increasing the money supply during the Great Depression by eliminating constraints on the Federal Reserve, which was required to have 40% gold backing of Federal Reserve Notes. The order demanded that all gold be delivered to the Federal Reserve, with some exemptions for specific industries and collectors (as well as very small amounts). They were exchanged for $20.67 per troy ounce. [Failing to comply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_with_the_Enemy_Act_of_1917) with this order brought with it a fine of up to $10,000, 10 years in prison, or both.\n\n[Some](https://news.bitcoin.com/could-the-government-confiscate-gold-again-a-look-at-todays-emergencies-and-revisiting-executive-order-6102/) have worried that the US government may consider taking similar actions again.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States government creates a law, Executive Order, regulation or other rule that confiscates any amount of the gold owned privately by US citizens before 2035, according to credible media reports.\n\nThis question does not resolve positively if the US government confiscates some amount of gold for different reasons (like drug raids, etc). The question only resolves as **Yes** if a law/EO/regulation/etc is passed that explicitly allows the confiscation and/or disallows the ownership of some type of gold assets (i.e., it resolves for a law pertaining to any subset of gold assets, even if some types of gold assets are unaffected).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"confiscation\" is understood as forceful transfer of any privately owned gold assets with or without compensation by the government.", "post_id": 15646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762945806.191534, "end_time": 1765229865.020607, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762945806.191534, "end_time": 1765229865.020607, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.012 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.988, 0.012 ], "means": [ 0.030363019956565124 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.131370310436385, 1.52707534075529, 1.4681651118382923, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3185555210883373, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289474.65633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289474.65633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9954247856572629, 0.004575214342737132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Executive Order 6102](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102), signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, prohibited the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the United States. The order was aimed at increasing the money supply during the Great Depression by eliminating constraints on the Federal Reserve, which was required to have 40% gold backing of Federal Reserve Notes. The order demanded that all gold be delivered to the Federal Reserve, with some exemptions for specific industries and collectors (as well as very small amounts). They were exchanged for $20.67 per troy ounce. [Failing to comply](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_with_the_Enemy_Act_of_1917) with this order brought with it a fine of up to $10,000, 10 years in prison, or both.\n\n[Some](https://news.bitcoin.com/could-the-government-confiscate-gold-again-a-look-at-todays-emergencies-and-revisiting-executive-order-6102/) have worried that the US government may consider taking similar actions again." }, { "id": 15644, "title": "Will North and South Korea be at war before 2050, according to WPR?", "short_title": "Second Korean War by 2050", "url_title": "Second Korean War by 2050", "slug": "second-korean-war-by-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-29T14:11:24.460165Z", "published_at": "2023-04-06T17:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:05:05.176829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-06T17:45:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-06T17:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15644, "title": "Will North and South Korea be at war before 2050, according to WPR?", "created_at": "2023-03-29T14:11:24.460165Z", "open_time": "2023-04-06T17:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-08T17:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-08T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Both the [Republic of Korea](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Republic_of_Korea_(1987)#CHAPTER_I._GENERAL_PROVISIONS) and the [Democratic People's Republic of Korea](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_North_Korea_(1972,_rev._1998)#CHAPTER_I._POLITICS) claim sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula. This dispute led to the infamous [Korean War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War), during which North Korea invaded South Korea in order to unite the peninsula under their rule. This attempt failed, leading to a military stalemate and several million people dead. The war ended with a ceasefire and the established of the [Korean Demilitarized Zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone) dividing the two nations. However, *de jure* they remain at war.\n\nThere have been many close brushes with a return to large-scale, *de facto* warfare. The closest was the [Korean DMZ Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_DMZ_Conflict) of the late 1960s, a series of low-level military clashes that left several hundred dead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point before 2050, [WPR](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war) rates North and South Korea as \"at war.\"", "fine_print": "- If North Korea and South Korea peacefully unify before the the resolve date, the question will resolve as No.\n\n- If North Korea or South Korea cease to exist due to means unrelated to peaceful unification, the question will resolve as Ambiguous.\n\n- If WPR ceases to exist, the question is annulled.\n\n- If WPR reports either country is solely in a \"civil war,\" \"drug war,\" \"terrorist insurgency,\" or \"border dispute,\" that is not sufficient for a Yes resolution. WPR must report the countries are engaged in a war with one another.\n\n- If WPR reports conflicting data, Metaculus admins will choose the most detailed source for resolution. for instance, as of 2024, Metaculus would use the [data table](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war#:~:text=CSV,JSON) located at the bottom of the [Countries Currently at War](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war) page.", "post_id": 15644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762031094.509124, "end_time": 1765187684.702605, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762031094.509124, "end_time": 1765187684.702605, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23830351440997033 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.013566382457547477, 0.45831626389351565, 0.22137853127526716, 0.1297911561650962, 1.0021252269498195, 0.6403275046068748, 0.03247615849383687, 0.08627334283842372, 0.8414537493143294, 0.0, 1.7714335527533835, 0.0, 0.20358675577850374, 0.005978849674628248, 0.8920262050758805, 1.6046731282764823, 0.0, 0.3852056920978041, 0.17637261551008473, 0.011191020838932624, 0.9625779935446096, 0.4173353600950991, 0.0, 0.2766397436488392, 0.23047228970092284, 0.2822383071681978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37182283818623535, 0.0, 1.9580267538649383, 0.0, 0.0009625623299005349, 1.2719608255267913, 0.0, 0.3117626014929859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002181895179420165, 0.6182347767213943, 0.0, 0.9450373679200694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24504576872720496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3037672286895935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2857566482577116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7275703736104373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018564709102016926 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288673.000291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288673.000291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9245680774177378, 0.07543192258226215 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Both the [Republic of Korea](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Republic_of_Korea_(1987)#CHAPTER_I._GENERAL_PROVISIONS) and the [Democratic People's Republic of Korea](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_North_Korea_(1972,_rev._1998)#CHAPTER_I._POLITICS) claim sovereignty over the entire Korean Peninsula. This dispute led to the infamous [Korean War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War), during which North Korea invaded South Korea in order to unite the peninsula under their rule. This attempt failed, leading to a military stalemate and several million people dead. The war ended with a ceasefire and the established of the [Korean Demilitarized Zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone) dividing the two nations. However, *de jure* they remain at war.\n\nThere have been many close brushes with a return to large-scale, *de facto* warfare. The closest was the [Korean DMZ Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_DMZ_Conflict) of the late 1960s, a series of low-level military clashes that left several hundred dead." }, { "id": 15641, "title": "Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?", "short_title": "Civil War in Israel before 2024?", "url_title": "Civil War in Israel before 2024?", "slug": "civil-war-in-israel-before-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-28T19:48:25.590002Z", "published_at": "2023-04-02T16:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.572018Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-02T16:20:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T16:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T16:26:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-02T16:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15641, "title": "Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-28T19:48:25.590002Z", "open_time": "2023-04-02T16:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-03T01:57:48.628318Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-03T01:57:48.628318Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T16:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T16:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T16:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional. \n\nIn late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a [temporary pause]( https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/27/israel-netanyahu-judicial-reform-delay-halt/11548416002/) to the judicial changes, leading to a divided response. The larger opposition parties cautiously welcomed the decision, while leaders of the street demonstrations denounced it as a temporary freeze. As the [Financial Times reported on March 28:](https://www.ft.com/content/9e33f942-6125-428c-8a7a-a2dcf85a300e)\n\n> Benjamin Netanyahu bowed to public pressure on Monday and delayed the contentious judicial reform he and his extremist partners have championed. With Israel paralysed by mass protests and strikes, he acknowledged the risk of civil war. The crisis is not over, however. The Israeli prime minister’s language made clear he intends his decision as a tactical pause to quiet the civil disobedience. Netanyahu is buying time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Israel is listed as having been in ‘Civil War’, ‘Civil War/Terrorist Insurgency’, or ‘Civil War/Drug War’ for any time in 2023 according to the [‘WPR Countries Currently at War’](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-currently-at-war) list. \n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** there is overwhelming global consensus that Israel is experiencing civil war. This is operationalised as fulfilling both of the following conditions: 1) The BBC and the New York Times report Israel as experiencing civil war. 2) The US and the EU officially make a statement, referring to Israel as experiencing civil war.", "fine_print": "Because the main resolution source has some lag in reporting, this question will resolve 6 months after the closing date in situations where resolution is not straightforwardly assessed by the other resolution conditions.", "post_id": 15641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703967455.878846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703967455.878846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009079807192062082 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.302101912283966, 7.345465173535252, 0.13755540116141957, 0.005962922018114479, 0.01831563888873418, 0.009771978505191096, 0.0, 0.4838426756273057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006813940479808572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1731168032924276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027409221734258034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3007148322795254, "coverage": 0.9998177888136532, "baseline_score": 98.5158891413168, "spot_peer_score": 0.3107154295990377, "peer_archived_score": 2.3007148322795254, "baseline_archived_score": 98.5158891413168, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.3107154295990377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008371.508585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008371.508585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 234, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early 2023, mass protests and strikes erupted in Israel over the government's plans to strip power from judges. The [reforms](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-65086871) would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional. \n\nIn late March 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a [temporary pause]( https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/03/27/israel-netanyahu-judicial-reform-delay-halt/11548416002/) to the judicial changes, leading to a divided response. The larger opposition parties cautiously welcomed the decision, while leaders of the street demonstrations denounced it as a temporary freeze. As the [Financial Times reported on March 28:](https://www.ft.com/content/9e33f942-6125-428c-8a7a-a2dcf85a300e)\n\n> Benjamin Netanyahu bowed to public pressure on Monday and delayed the contentious judicial reform he and his extremist partners have championed. With Israel paralysed by mass protests and strikes, he acknowledged the risk of civil war. The crisis is not over, however. The Israeli prime minister’s language made clear he intends his decision as a tactical pause to quiet the civil disobedience. Netanyahu is buying time." }, { "id": 15630, "title": "Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?", "short_title": "Apple Mixed Reality Headset at WWDC 2023?", "url_title": "Apple Mixed Reality Headset at WWDC 2023?", "slug": "apple-mixed-reality-headset-at-wwdc-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-26T15:44:28.060532Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.977233Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-17T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T18:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T18:24:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15630, "title": "Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-26T15:44:28.060532Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-18T03:11:22.340470Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-18T03:11:22.340470Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T18:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-05T18:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T18:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.\n\n[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple announces a Mixed Reality Headset at WWDC in 2023, and **No** if there is no such announcement at WWDC.\n\nFor this question, an \"announcement\" is sufficient if the device has a name and is demonstrated to have the mixed reality capabilities below; a release date is not required.\n\nTo be a \"mixed reality\" headset, the device must have both (1) a virtual reality (VR) experience (comparable to the Meta Oculus line of devices) and (2) an augmented reality (AR) experience (comparable to the Microsoft Hololens line of devices).\n\nIn particular, for the (AR) part, the device must have a mode where it is see-through, i.e. the user sees the outside world with additional information layered on top. This could be done by literally making the display transparent in some modes, or by feeding live camera input into the visual display.", "fine_print": "If Apple makes an official announcement of an MR headset prior 1 week prior to WWDC's official beginning, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf WWDC is not held between April 1, 2023 to July 1, 2023, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 15630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685989083.05996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685989083.05996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8937893837779335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.047651539723663816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01568685324934101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028374229916521676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.04111875218002038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19142031140958948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013838716752835776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28960397325333087, 0.07800161805115473, 0.02025213747636502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.870929183843717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026612067765746133, 0.17272955787789077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8080967496021065, 0.14446194573261212, 0.0, 0.02172182181200892, 0.01710228768340494, 0.0, 0.014369596090439089, 0.4067750550550023, 0.36865346399778304, 0.0021168258563742832, 0.021999569229045664, 0.16586416855703567, 0.026484397670010415, 0.0, 0.2273311149922641, 0.032753212234852405, 3.4748764545483866, 0.6709509182946348, 0.03814939591291599, 2.5854133228826353, 1.1197652057922571, 0.9943296585835071, 0.5397367656687558, 0.6234358643298791, 0.2793240349194051, 3.9631683164236016 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.118514938735796, "coverage": 0.6624533941221894, "baseline_score": 52.73937054624243, "spot_peer_score": -17.77347274903829, "peer_archived_score": 9.118514938735796, "baseline_archived_score": 52.73937054624243, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.77347274903829 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685989083.075873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685989083.075873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06270499664103801, 0.937295003358962 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 227, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; 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the next WWDC is scheduled to be held on June 5-9 2023.\n\n[Tom's Guide](https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks) has collected several rumors and reports that Apple plans to announce some kind of Augmented Reality device at WWDC 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple announces a Virtual Reality Headset at WWDC in 2023, and **No** if there is no such announcement at WWDC.\n\nFor this question, an \"announcement\" is sufficient if the device has a name and is demonstrated to have the mixed reality capabilities below; a release date is not required.\n\nA virtual reality headset is defined as a device that provides a full 3D, stereo, visual experience that tracks your head movements. Current VR devices include the Oculus Quest from Meta.\n\nNote that such a device *need not* have any \"mixed reality\" or \"augmented reality\" capabilities.", "fine_print": "If Apple makes an official announcement of a VR headset prior 1 week prior to WWDC's official beginning, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf WWDC is not held between April 1, 2023 to July 1, 2023, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 15629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685989776.977578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685989776.977578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8984402102784662 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01420933479854029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015789022061289532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0, 0.2481623179044939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037544681771092214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031108340158719605, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072384721141983115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2898927624025079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14322358604930838, 0.0, 0.001839023418757394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1739520594214535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4179470828252068, 0.0, 0.0991598257291094, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0923137773892364, 0.17672342147353706, 0.017504585138914137, 0.5285340505500855, 0.07142294734565686, 0.5310807016403946, 0.0, 0.5841067049530831, 0.26487459163151467, 0.0, 1.2159357986584851, 0.8028422146855093, 1.082942333424001, 1.3483912163859628, 0.0, 0.8637823879523461, 0.0, 1.2911150719928597, 0.0, 5.013205669681792 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.437743673690825, "coverage": 0.6742056407315613, "baseline_score": 45.20024738158375, "spot_peer_score": 28.08420204997405, "peer_archived_score": 19.437743673690825, "baseline_archived_score": 45.20024738158375, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.08420204997405 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685968536.497911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685968536.497911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07983934177852126, 0.9201606582214787 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[WWDC](https://developer.apple.com/wwdc23/) is Apple's annual conference to announce upcoming Apple products; 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From rumors, the eyewear \"are expected to synchronize with a wearer’s iPhone to display things such as texts, emails, maps, and games over the user’s field of vision.\"\n\nSuch \"Glasses\" must look substantially like a standard pair of glasses. A VR headset, like Oculus, that is closer to ski goggles than glasses, would not qualify, even if such a device had some Augmented Reality / see-through capabilities. The glasses must provide the standard vision correction for common vision impairments that glasses normally provide.\n\nIt’s not sufficient to have glasses that have functionality like taking pictures, such as Snapchat Spectacles or Facebook Raybans, or that modify the visual field uniformly with filters. It must show new information comparable to the display on an Apple Watch.", "fine_print": "The device need not be released, nor need a release date be given, an announcement is sufficient provided that it specifically unveils and names the device, and that the device can be seen on an Apple website.", "post_id": 15628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654741.032257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654741.032257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.017858114187272418 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.248106115676801, 1.1725000086389912, 0.6100204081286389, 0.0, 0.3106625186139859, 0.07982935021231018, 0.28092750830287916, 0.021542612258663517, 0.05630936737947011, 0.0, 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least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?", "short_title": "Russian nukes in Belarus before 2024?", "url_title": "Russian nukes in Belarus before 2024?", "slug": "russian-nukes-in-belarus-before-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-26T09:37:11.213729Z", "published_at": "2023-03-28T19:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.076173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-28T19:18:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T08:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T08:28:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-28T19:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 304, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15627, "title": "Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-26T09:37:11.213729Z", "open_time": "2023-03-28T19:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-29T21:33:33.408630Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-29T21:33:33.408630Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T08:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T08:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T08:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to Minsk, and Putin compared the decision to the US stationing weapons in Europe. The construction of a storage facility for the weapons in Belarus is set to be completed by [July 1st](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus). \n\nThe decision follows a [joint statement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) from Russia and China urging that “all nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories, and they must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The US Defense Department stated it does not believe Russia intends to use the weapons and has not adjusted its strategic nuclear posture in response.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Russia has at least one operational nuclear weapon (tactical or strategic) stationed in Belarus. This includes Russian warheads on Belarusian missiles or other relevant platforms.\n\nIf Belarus ceases to exist as an independent country, for example if Russia formally announces that it has annexed Belarus or similar outcomes, this question resolves ambiguously. \n\nIf there are no credible reports of this happening by 2024 and this question is resolved negatively in early 2024, but such reports surface at a later point in time, this question will not re-resolve.", "fine_print": "Credible sources have to rely on official statements by a government (or a governmental agency), even if these announcement remain probabilistic like \"have high confidence that. . .\" a Russian nuclear weapon is in Belarus. A source citing unnamed sources does not qualify as a credible source for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 15627, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686747181.344758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686747181.344758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8550645886014145 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.26763073259208986, 2.9368268354469757e-05, 0.0, 0.002264691736411076, 0.0010813111741543272, 0.0, 0.002314044239069707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005355877832201015, 0.002853584990664276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03880566240904442, 0.0, 4.7230824921226915e-05, 0.0, 0.017565490577138673, 0.5449146327737577, 0.0020500308822946024, 0.0, 0.0003921238879022068, 4.388266600956876e-06, 0.0033815500815203856, 0.0007168747892150742, 0.0005799041372784204, 0.0006833289284502981, 0.0, 0.22419339682364567, 0.00030105526028656633, 0.0, 0.0015931634419926073, 0.0, 0.028928527005128882, 7.497604908455144e-05, 0.027335510983611457, 0.0033854933080465555, 0.0013348425318322336, 0.006308281657894911, 0.0010078438608214133, 0.1299258396125694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01810294008465919, 1.6478263686263868e-05, 0.0002293616285452414, 2.733363551814952e-05, 4.53092902632309e-07, 0.15634567904920896, 0.00019404870827210123, 0.04744893474530162, 0.000481966088098958, 0.0, 0.0032569042759693963, 0.17918040551198414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40414301681949616, 0.01332185937019744, 0.7132246666006897, 0.053618750927413854, 0.31449960536859173, 0.4183962929833903, 0.0, 0.04525754365741855, 0.0, 0.27128211689785875, 0.11303477488135903, 2.618208954242439e-06, 0.038683024372961214, 0.0, 0.4666089334995506, 1.3976913742912025, 0.0, 0.09356708616805678, 1.9788183562733617e-07, 0.602122147491644, 2.4201556888681894, 0.9539524053091999, 0.10166230499418055, 0.11035536135747864, 6.326692178687203e-07, 1.4963085437679862, 0.06949878893677496, 1.5231470881695515, 3.627095686725996e-05, 0.37775171378799083, 4.273431457526063, 0.3437721780098421, 0.6652968539550445, 0.07607139341271223, 1.5231092871966612, 5.5554824808846455, 0.006305841220384481, 0.6289230778182175, 0.07403637148517214, 6.508485287730837 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.056538929852154, "coverage": 0.27924613893594835, "baseline_score": 2.8757197512552413, "spot_peer_score": -6.174238575064339, "peer_archived_score": 8.056538929852154, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8757197512552413, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.174238575064339 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686728457.446268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686728457.446268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16943296104059502, 0.830567038959405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 618, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late March 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin has [announced plans](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This would mark the first time Moscow would based nuclear arms outside Russia since the mid-1990s. Control of the arms will not be transferred to Minsk, and Putin compared the decision to the US stationing weapons in Europe. The construction of a storage facility for the weapons in Belarus is set to be completed by [July 1st](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/25/putin-says-will-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus). \n\nThe decision follows a [joint statement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687) from Russia and China urging that “all nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories, and they must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.” The US Defense Department stated it does not believe Russia intends to use the weapons and has not adjusted its strategic nuclear posture in response." }, { "id": 15625, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?", "short_title": "TikTok US sold by 2024?", "url_title": "TikTok US sold by 2024?", "slug": "tiktok-us-sold-by-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 135221, "username": "TheGrassGuy" } ], "created_at": "2023-03-25T16:01:45.730707Z", "published_at": "2023-03-29T18:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.131533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-29T18:11:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-29T18:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15625, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-25T16:01:45.730707Z", "open_time": "2023-03-29T18:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-31T18:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-31T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/). As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2023 but must at least be announced in 2023. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok is not sold before 2024, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering in 2023, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15625, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965248.996437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965248.996437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.018860599769615807 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.68825028919492, 3.2367562240833525, 0.09959693749384557, 0.6302456420751961, 0.1490460999152466, 0.17799618680786838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1505563017634728, 0.029873235309733973, 0.21298738082095067, 0.0, 0.0041768548738893045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0518993162164335, 0.0445799336120917, 0.2290818102158042, 0.0, 0.028384084494708958, 0.043445336511683724, 0.0, 0.026884426431469374, 0.17391556805192088, 0.05385505242225807, 0.0, 0.01415005863133356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0331191247199604, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005832286250484877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004958639536235962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.429837038456254, "coverage": 0.9997292404073131, "baseline_score": 78.32409624287676, "spot_peer_score": 37.07646750494075, "peer_archived_score": 14.429837038456254, "baseline_archived_score": 78.32409624287676, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.07646750494075 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965249.027501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965249.027501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/). As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance." }, { "id": 15622, "title": "Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?", "short_title": "Deutsche Bank Collapse before June 2023?", "url_title": "Deutsche Bank Collapse before June 2023?", "slug": "deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-25T10:01:32.085436Z", "published_at": "2023-03-28T12:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.882015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-28T12:21:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-28T12:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15622, "title": "Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-25T10:01:32.085436Z", "open_time": "2023-03-28T12:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-29T20:10:07.019659Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-29T20:10:07.019659Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-of-trust/?sh=626f335f54fa), strong central bank and government support has so far warded off a full-blown crisis, due to [strong responses by the Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm) and the Swiss central bank and government by facilitating the UBS takeover of [Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-deal-halted-crisis-092818510.html).\n\nHowever, on March 24, 2023, shares of [Deutsche Bank](https://www.ft.com/content/a730721b-afaf-4e81-b5aa-dcbbd98f3bd3) fell as much as 14%, closing the day down over 8%. This raised fears of a wider contagion and as such about the financial health of Deutsche Bank, the potential implications of its collapse for the German and wider EU banking sector, as well as the potential need for central bank/government support similar to Credit Suisse. [German chancellor Olaf Scholz](https://www.ft.com/content/963d8fde-1bd0-4285-98f4-715248119f2a) “has rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse”:\n\n> “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernised and reorganised its business and is a very profitable bank,” Scholz said at a summit in Brussels after being asked if the lender was the new Credit Suisse. “There is no reason to be concerned about it.”\n\nAs some have pointed out, this Deutsche Bank scare has forced the German chancellor to borrow line from Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘[No cause for any kind of concern’](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-scare-forces-german-191822318.html). While there remains significant uncertainty about the size of the problem and the potential solutions, [some have worried](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/deutsche-banks-collapse-would-be-a-threat-to-the-whole-eurozone/) that:\n\n> A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Deutsche Bank experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by credible sources before June 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation (for example, an announcement of a government bailout is sufficient for resolution, even if the actual bailout has not happened yet for as long as the announcement is clear that it has been agreed upon).\n\nScenarios:\n\n1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.\n\n2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution or governmental entities.\n\n3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions or governmental entities.\n\n4) Break-up: Split of Deutsche Bank into at least two separate entities.\n\n5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance.\n\n6) Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from the European Central Bank.\n\n7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15622, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685501305.355542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685501305.355542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.032438150752651794 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.874053499958164, 6.242689976036202, 0.6626256661415658, 0.38130616726162236, 0.32685690484276697, 1.370389766975144, 0.061890178331695696, 0.2126454988089252, 0.36707193021284884, 0.0, 0.5236568673747478, 0.0, 0.05551290601746709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006773620771983868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031930000652666095, 0.0, 0.11904654753184506, 0.15369479851735054, 0.19735405295941705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0045715845693790344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10398802078225193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1637293676293874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09723778993698115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0738760997845549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018683628185842587 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.614354361560803, "coverage": 0.9999349850135871, "baseline_score": 89.48335128979768, "spot_peer_score": 7.4809260032165215, "peer_archived_score": 10.614354361560803, "baseline_archived_score": 89.48335128979768, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.4809260032165215 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685518545.887848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685518545.887848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 234, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the [2023 banking turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/how-2023-banking-crisis-unfolded-2023-03-24/), triggerd by the collapse of [Silicon Valley Bank](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forrester/2023/03/24/the-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-highlights-the-importance-of-resilience-and-the-imperative-of-trust/?sh=626f335f54fa), strong central bank and government support has so far warded off a full-blown crisis, due to [strong responses by the Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230319a.htm) and the Swiss central bank and government by facilitating the UBS takeover of [Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-deal-halted-crisis-092818510.html).\n\nHowever, on March 24, 2023, shares of [Deutsche Bank](https://www.ft.com/content/a730721b-afaf-4e81-b5aa-dcbbd98f3bd3) fell as much as 14%, closing the day down over 8%. This raised fears of a wider contagion and as such about the financial health of Deutsche Bank, the potential implications of its collapse for the German and wider EU banking sector, as well as the potential need for central bank/government support similar to Credit Suisse. [German chancellor Olaf Scholz](https://www.ft.com/content/963d8fde-1bd0-4285-98f4-715248119f2a) “has rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse”:\n\n> “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernised and reorganised its business and is a very profitable bank,” Scholz said at a summit in Brussels after being asked if the lender was the new Credit Suisse. “There is no reason to be concerned about it.”\n\nAs some have pointed out, this Deutsche Bank scare has forced the German chancellor to borrow line from Silicon Valley Bank CEO: ‘[No cause for any kind of concern’](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-scare-forces-german-191822318.html). While there remains significant uncertainty about the size of the problem and the potential solutions, [some have worried](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/deutsche-banks-collapse-would-be-a-threat-to-the-whole-eurozone/) that:\n\n> A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble." }, { "id": 15621, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?", "short_title": "Macron no longer President before 2027?", "url_title": "Macron no longer President before 2027?", "slug": "macron-no-longer-president-before-2027", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-25T09:56:08.824344Z", "published_at": "2023-03-28T11:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T08:08:30.927179Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-28T11:42:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-28T11:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 264, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15621, "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-03-25T09:56:08.824344Z", "open_time": "2023-03-28T11:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-29T12:15:48.023854Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-29T12:15:48.023854Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/). This move has sparked [nationwide protests](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65057249) and led to some of the worst street violence in recent years. The reform aims to raise the minimum retirement age from [62 to 64](https://www.nytimes.com/article/france-pension-strikes-macron-explainer.html) to improve the financial sustainability of the French pension system. Strikes and demonstrations have caused widespread disruption in France, with at least [one million](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165759889/more-than-1-million-demonstrate-across-france-against-pension-reforms) people participating in protests at one point.\n\nMacron's approval rating has dropped as low as [28%](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230322-macron-breaks-silence-on-france-s-bitter-pension-battle-the-key-takeaways), as two-thirds of the French population oppose the law. As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/b78f2a89-1062-4423-a4ba-fb4cdc56c683) points out: \n\n> French anger transcends pensions and Macron’s high-handedness. There’s a generalised, long-term rage against the state and its embodiment, the president.\n\nSome of the protestors also [chanted](https://www.commondreams.org/news/macron-resign-french-protests-intensify-over-attempt-to-force-retirement-age-hike) “Macron demission” (Macron resign), raising the stakes for a continued presidential tenure. Because this is already Macron’s second term, [he will not be able to stand for re-election](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/22/why-is-it-so-unusual-for-a-french-president-to-win-re-election). As such, Macron’s tenure ends in 2027 after the maximum tenure of five years. However, there are concerns about whether Macron will be able to govern effectively for the remainder of this term and may choose to resign before 2027. As some [commentators](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/20/macron-knows-finished-might-just-choose-resign/) have put it, “Macron knows he’s finished. He might just choose to resign.”\n\n> The idea is that, like General de Gaulle in 1969, he would prefer to resign grandly rather than endure a “cohabitation” with an opposition prime minister, as François Mitterrand did in 1986-88 with Jacques Chirac, and Chirac himself had to between 1997 and 2002 with the Socialist Lionel Jospin.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Emmanuel Macron is no longer the French President at any point before 2027 for whatever reason. This question will resolve on the basis of [the official Élysée](https://www.elysee.fr/en/) or reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). \n\nIf Emmanuel Macron is still President on January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763532737.867, "end_time": 1764135403.094193, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.036 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763532737.867, "end_time": 1764135403.094193, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.036 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11698473475375175 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0261870084191886, 1.5622667025043202, 0.9831885399061087, 0.41653710983335634, 2.3796724638414046, 1.334255128210311, 0.0017185793486399002, 1.167381346441175, 1.8425751812970659, 0.0, 0.981667779627866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41828518480522503, 0.5827089072721569, 0.7492646874915151, 0.15045047261877945, 0.0, 0.24877094235518352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26902637963533715, 0.3054018648546395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8384708239380203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10251256047355009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11089172218023127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290060.279506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290060.279506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.985386717965412, 0.014613282034588027 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 674, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/). This move has sparked [nationwide protests](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65057249) and led to some of the worst street violence in recent years. The reform aims to raise the minimum retirement age from [62 to 64](https://www.nytimes.com/article/france-pension-strikes-macron-explainer.html) to improve the financial sustainability of the French pension system. Strikes and demonstrations have caused widespread disruption in France, with at least [one million](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165759889/more-than-1-million-demonstrate-across-france-against-pension-reforms) people participating in protests at one point.\n\nMacron's approval rating has dropped as low as [28%](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230322-macron-breaks-silence-on-france-s-bitter-pension-battle-the-key-takeaways), as two-thirds of the French population oppose the law. As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/b78f2a89-1062-4423-a4ba-fb4cdc56c683) points out: \n\n> French anger transcends pensions and Macron’s high-handedness. There’s a generalised, long-term rage against the state and its embodiment, the president.\n\nSome of the protestors also [chanted](https://www.commondreams.org/news/macron-resign-french-protests-intensify-over-attempt-to-force-retirement-age-hike) “Macron demission” (Macron resign), raising the stakes for a continued presidential tenure. Because this is already Macron’s second term, [he will not be able to stand for re-election](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/22/why-is-it-so-unusual-for-a-french-president-to-win-re-election). As such, Macron’s tenure ends in 2027 after the maximum tenure of five years. However, there are concerns about whether Macron will be able to govern effectively for the remainder of this term and may choose to resign before 2027. As some [commentators](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/20/macron-knows-finished-might-just-choose-resign/) have put it, “Macron knows he’s finished. He might just choose to resign.”\n\n> The idea is that, like General de Gaulle in 1969, he would prefer to resign grandly rather than endure a “cohabitation” with an opposition prime minister, as François Mitterrand did in 1986-88 with Jacques Chirac, and Chirac himself had to between 1997 and 2002 with the Socialist Lionel Jospin." }, { "id": 15620, "title": "Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?", "short_title": "New Copper ATH in 2023?", "url_title": "New Copper ATH in 2023?", "slug": "new-copper-ath-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-25T09:50:59.401685Z", "published_at": "2023-03-30T19:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.543878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-30T19:24:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-30T19:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15620, "title": "Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-25T09:50:59.401685Z", "open_time": "2023-03-30T19:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-01T19:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-01T19:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Copper is a vital element in the global shift towards clean energy sources, as it plays a significant role in the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar power. According to a [Copper Development Association (CDA)](https://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/infographics/copper-and-the-clean-energy-transition-brochure.pdf) ) summary, the use of copper in solar and wind energy generation is 4-6 times higher than in fossil fuel-based systems. This is because copper's excellent conductivity and durability make it ideal for efficiently distributing electricity over long distances from wind and solar farms to households and factories. Additionally, copper is a crucial component in electric vehicles (EVs), with battery electric vehicles containing approximately 183 lbs of copper (more than 4 times the amount needed for ICE cars). This metal is used in various parts of an EV, including the electric motor, battery, inverters, and wiring. Furthermore, the growing demand for charging infrastructure to support the increasing number of EVs on the road adds to the rising copper demand, as copper is extensively used in constructing charging stations.\n\nAs the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift) reports, Trafigura forecasts a surge of copper prices in 2023 due to a rebound in Chinese demand as well as already low stockpiles. \n\n> “I think it’s very likely in the next 12 months that we will see a new high,” Bintas said at the FT Commodity Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.\n\n> Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the third quarter of this year if demand in China continues to power ahead as strongly as it did in February.\n\nThis increase in global demand is facing [struggles to increase production in the near-term](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift):\n\n> Mining executives say it is increasingly difficult to boost new supply of copper with declining grades. Mining billionaire Robert Friedland told the Financial Times it took him 28 years to develop the vast Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is ramping up to supply 650,000 tonnes by the end of next year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on [HG:CMX historical data provided by the NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx). \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if copper trades higher than $5.0395 at any day of 2023. \n\nTo resolve this question, the ‘Historical Data’ of the [resolution source](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/hg:cmx/historical) will be used. This data can be downloaded directly and be sorted by the ‘High’ of each day. If any day of 2023 has a ‘High’ of above 5.0395 (the previous ATH from 03/07/2022), this question resolves positively. If it does not, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15620, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989457.431862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989457.431862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023604256557508075 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.436345760676789, 6.378562127506765, 0.3551866365553954, 0.16087444332614184, 0.025360596869753158, 0.13989708948749796, 0.033136279379270196, 0.7883207747867617, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.2348604400719506, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.06491490649493556, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12443678207034711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06541896653597065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0833857067693185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012546816028609381, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.453935982501182, "coverage": 0.9912845844856585, "baseline_score": 50.62987804101364, "spot_peer_score": 0.13869634413627804, "peer_archived_score": 15.453935982501182, "baseline_archived_score": 50.62987804101364, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.13869634413627804 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703875001.501234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703875001.501234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Copper is a vital element in the global shift towards clean energy sources, as it plays a significant role in the development and implementation of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar power. According to a [Copper Development Association (CDA)](https://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/infographics/copper-and-the-clean-energy-transition-brochure.pdf) ) summary, the use of copper in solar and wind energy generation is 4-6 times higher than in fossil fuel-based systems. This is because copper's excellent conductivity and durability make it ideal for efficiently distributing electricity over long distances from wind and solar farms to households and factories. Additionally, copper is a crucial component in electric vehicles (EVs), with battery electric vehicles containing approximately 183 lbs of copper (more than 4 times the amount needed for ICE cars). This metal is used in various parts of an EV, including the electric motor, battery, inverters, and wiring. Furthermore, the growing demand for charging infrastructure to support the increasing number of EVs on the road adds to the rising copper demand, as copper is extensively used in constructing charging stations.\n\nAs the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift) reports, Trafigura forecasts a surge of copper prices in 2023 due to a rebound in Chinese demand as well as already low stockpiles. \n\n> “I think it’s very likely in the next 12 months that we will see a new high,” Bintas said at the FT Commodity Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.\n\n> Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the third quarter of this year if demand in China continues to power ahead as strongly as it did in February.\n\nThis increase in global demand is facing [struggles to increase production in the near-term](https://www.ft.com/content/c3da84fd-efe2-4487-accb-511a8104ee3e?shareType=nongift):\n\n> Mining executives say it is increasingly difficult to boost new supply of copper with declining grades. Mining billionaire Robert Friedland told the Financial Times it took him 28 years to develop the vast Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is ramping up to supply 650,000 tonnes by the end of next year." }, { "id": 15619, "title": "Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?", "short_title": "Internet Archive Shutdown Before 2025?", "url_title": "Internet Archive Shutdown Before 2025?", "slug": "internet-archive-shutdown-before-2025", "author_id": 115097, "author_username": "cakridge2", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-25T01:20:10.332321Z", "published_at": "2023-03-31T14:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T10:50:53.715183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-31T14:54:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T14:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 109, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15619, "title": "Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-03-25T01:20:10.332321Z", "open_time": "2023-03-31T14:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-01T20:43:43.866045Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-01T20:43:43.866045Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:53:38.306363Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out [digital copies of books it has in its physical possession](https://archive.org/details/inlibrary), such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.\n\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial lockdowns in 2020, the Internet Archive expanded digital lending to allow an unlimited number of copies. This decision led to a [lawsuit filed by several publishers](https://www.eff.org/cases/hachette-v-internet-archive) against the Internet Archive, alleging copyright violation. In March 2023, a lower court [ruled against](https://file770.com/judge-decides-against-internet-archive/) the Internet Archive, although they plan to [continue fighting the case](http://blog.archive.org/2023/03/25/the-fight-continues/).\n\nA judgment against the Internet Archive could be devastating, as it is a free website funded by donations and may lose a significant amount of money to the publishing houses seeking damages. Furthermore, publishers seem to oppose the [entire operation of the Internet Archive](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/10/24/as-big-book-publishers-look-to-kill-the-internet-archive-it-introduces-democracys-library/), from its public domain work to its Wayback Machine, which is the largest archive of the Internet in existence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occurs:\n\n1. Reputable news sources report that the Internet Archive has been shut down in its entirety.\n2. The archive.org website is replaced with an official message by the Internet Archive stating that it is permanently and completely discontinued.\n3. The archive.org website is replaced with an official message by law enforcement indicating that the domain has been seized.\n4. The archive.org domain is inaccessible to all users for more than 72 consecutive hours.\n\nThis question will NOT resolve \"yes\" if only some functionality of the Internet Archive (e.g., digital lending) is removed, but other functions of the site (such as the public domain archive or the Wayback Machine) remain operational", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654936.878496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654936.878496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.040520598648200165 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.826664131181229, 3.444651525939798, 0.3411740014587229, 0.18342750232957775, 0.03331893600267295, 0.47584869062002255, 0.0, 0.013784184981251151, 0.2237534448664034, 0.028389087526959154, 0.5023940096735612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015860820639479026, 0.0015475270301467286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025157570941807335, 0.0, 0.16528621235392432, 0.010287103171836601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3241958861318708, 0.0, 0.20822916615838943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026360818993107264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3645401211643359 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.49729842379995, "peer_score": 26.309348974340963, "coverage": 0.9999882262754306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999882262754306, "spot_peer_score": -1.372530922303302, "spot_baseline_score": 64.15460290875237, "baseline_archived_score": 92.49729842379995, "peer_archived_score": 26.309348974340963, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.372530922303302, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 64.15460290875237 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289068.300648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289068.300648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9967623489035885, 0.0032376510964114615 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 271, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Internet Archive maintains a digital lending library that lends out [digital copies of books it has in its physical possession](https://archive.org/details/inlibrary), such that one physical copy corresponds to one digital copy for lending.\n\nDuring the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial lockdowns in 2020, the Internet Archive expanded digital lending to allow an unlimited number of copies. This decision led to a [lawsuit filed by several publishers](https://www.eff.org/cases/hachette-v-internet-archive) against the Internet Archive, alleging copyright violation. In March 2023, a lower court [ruled against](https://file770.com/judge-decides-against-internet-archive/) the Internet Archive, although they plan to [continue fighting the case](http://blog.archive.org/2023/03/25/the-fight-continues/).\n\nA judgment against the Internet Archive could be devastating, as it is a free website funded by donations and may lose a significant amount of money to the publishing houses seeking damages. Furthermore, publishers seem to oppose the [entire operation of the Internet Archive](https://www.techdirt.com/2022/10/24/as-big-book-publishers-look-to-kill-the-internet-archive-it-introduces-democracys-library/), from its public domain work to its Wayback Machine, which is the largest archive of the Internet in existence." }, { "id": 15615, "title": "Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?", "short_title": "Mandatory GCR-Focused Evals for AI Systems", "url_title": "Mandatory GCR-Focused Evals for AI Systems", "slug": "mandatory-gcr-focused-evals-for-ai-systems", "author_id": 119604, "author_username": "Lawrence", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-23T18:01:56.610616Z", "published_at": "2023-03-30T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T01:53:50.723111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-30T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-23T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-30T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15615, "title": "Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-03-23T18:01:56.610616Z", "open_time": "2023-03-30T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-01T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-23T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-23T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The evaluation of newly developed AI systems before deployment by organizations specializing in this task has been proposed as a strategy for mitigating catastrophic risks posed by such systems [[1]](https://ai-alignment.com/red-teams-b5b6de33dc76). This idea has gained traction – GPT-4 was evaluated for power-seeking tendencies and potentially catastrophic capabilities by AI risk assessment organization [ARC Evals](https://evals.alignment.org/) [[2](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf)].\n\nAs of March 2023, evaluations of this kind are carried out on a purely voluntary basis, and, particularly under conditions of an AI race, some actors might be tempted to forego them. However, with the passage of the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act, the US government is showing increased interest in mitigating catastrophic risks [[3]](https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/02/05/us-takes-action-to-avert-human-existential-catastrophe-the-global-catastrophic-risk-management-act-2022/), and it seems possible that such evaluations may at some point become required by US law.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before 2035, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US president has signed into law a bill requiring that AI systems satisfying certain criteria be evaluated by an appropriately accredited organization, or by a designated government body (for example, the proposed [Federal Algorithm Directorate](http://www.administrativelawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/69-1-Andrew-Tutt.pdf)) The law must stipulate that evaluations specifically designed to assess behavior that could lead to large-scale catastrophic outcomes are carried out.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will rely on reporting from credible sources to determine is this occurred, and will not analyze all laws passed within the period in question.", "post_id": 15615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761875620.237307, "end_time": 1764272901.976362, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761875620.237307, "end_time": 1764272901.976362, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.45717415596042754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9250188075350613, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1668302445981351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40511142881922146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287829.363573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287829.363573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4548446355981467, 0.5451553644018533 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The evaluation of newly developed AI systems before deployment by organizations specializing in this task has been proposed as a strategy for mitigating catastrophic risks posed by such systems [[1]](https://ai-alignment.com/red-teams-b5b6de33dc76). This idea has gained traction – GPT-4 was evaluated for power-seeking tendencies and potentially catastrophic capabilities by AI risk assessment organization [ARC Evals](https://evals.alignment.org/) [[2](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf)].\n\nAs of March 2023, evaluations of this kind are carried out on a purely voluntary basis, and, particularly under conditions of an AI race, some actors might be tempted to forego them. However, with the passage of the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act, the US government is showing increased interest in mitigating catastrophic risks [[3]](https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/02/05/us-takes-action-to-avert-human-existential-catastrophe-the-global-catastrophic-risk-management-act-2022/), and it seems possible that such evaluations may at some point become required by US law." }, { "id": 15611, "title": "Will Claude outrank Bard worldwide on Google Trends as of April 4, 2023?", "short_title": "Will Claude outrank Bard as of April 4, 2023?", "url_title": "Will Claude outrank Bard as of April 4, 2023?", "slug": "will-claude-outrank-bard-as-of-april-4-2023", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-22T17:48:59.817401Z", "published_at": "2023-03-24T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.415298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-24T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15611, "title": "Will Claude outrank Bard worldwide on Google Trends as of April 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-22T17:48:59.817401Z", "open_time": "2023-03-24T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-25T23:46:40.524829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-25T23:46:40.524829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/) is a company spun out of OpenAI in mid 2021, focused on Large Language Models with a particular focus safety and understandability. Their flagship model, Claude, [was introduced](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) on March 14, 2023.\n\nGoogle's entry in the AI-powered search game is Bard, a [model announced](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/) on February 6th and [opened (via waitlist) to the general public](https://blog.google/technology/ai/try-bard/) on March 21st. \n\nHistorically, the only time Bard outranked Claude in [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bard,claude) was immediately following Google's announcement of Bard.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on April 4, 2023 at 6:00PM UTC, Claude ranks higher than Bard worldwide on Google Trends, according to [Google Trends (90 days)](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bard,claude) for April 1st.", "fine_print": "Note that there can be a data lag and that the time range can affect the rankings. This question will resolve using the 90 day view.", "post_id": 15611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680321765.678671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680321765.678671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49525120288696123 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4019573924169173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.8248616239099401, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5866151391907781, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.16054456415221713, 0.4431407693921331, 0.0, 0.6328229684950785, 0.4295743667459408, 0.13008187731602983, 0.8254207842629908, 0.6902063238793004, 0.0, 0.23567742113903878, 0.02700918083308739, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3957596704570147, 0.0, 0.5468132678220224, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.7445660976288506, 0.8943701484110826, 0.4658976858118918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24814983386583844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680321765.696919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680321765.696919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5479820244237942, 0.4520179755762058 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/) is a company spun out of OpenAI in mid 2021, focused on Large Language Models with a particular focus safety and understandability. Their flagship model, Claude, [was introduced](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) on March 14, 2023.\n\nGoogle's entry in the AI-powered search game is Bard, a [model announced](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/) on February 6th and [opened (via waitlist) to the general public](https://blog.google/technology/ai/try-bard/) on March 21st. \n\nHistorically, the only time Bard outranked Claude in [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bard,claude) was immediately following Google's announcement of Bard." }, { "id": 15610, "title": "Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?", "short_title": "Data centres >10% of global electricity", "url_title": "Data centres >10% of global electricity", "slug": "data-centres-10-of-global-electricity", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-22T16:26:15.782929Z", "published_at": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T18:48:10.319943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15610, "title": "Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?", "created_at": "2023-03-22T16:26:15.782929Z", "open_time": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-29T17:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-29T17:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Based on a recent report by the [IEA](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf), demand for digital services has experienced rapid growth, with internet users and traffic more than doubling and expanding 20-fold since 2010, respectively. Data centres and data transmission networks account for around 1-1.5% of global electricity use, with energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption mitigating the energy demand. Data centres and transmission networks contributed 0.9% of energy-related GHG emissions in 2020. Although global data centre energy use (excluding crypto) has grown only moderately due to efficiency improvements in some regions, smaller countries have seen rapid growth. Data transmission network energy efficiency has also improved rapidly. See below for the IEA table summarising the change between 2015 and 2021 for relevant metrics, with ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ being the main indicator of relevance for this question.\n\n| Indicator | 2015 | 2021 | Change |\n|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|\n| Internet users | 3 billion | 4.9 billion | +60% |\n| Internet traffic | 0.6 ZB | 3.4 ZB | +440% |\n| Data centre workloads | 180 million | 650 million | +260% |\n| **Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)** | 200 TWh | **220-320 TWh** | +10-60% |\n| Crypto mining energy use | 4 TWh | 100-140 TWh | +2,300-3,300% |\n| Data transmission network energy use | 220 TWh | 260-340 TWh | +20-60% |\n\n\nIn Ireland, data centres already consumed 14% of the country’s electricity in 2021, according to the [Central Statistics Office](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2021/). A recent [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y) article forecasts strongly increasing usage of TWh for data centres until 2030, at just below 10% of global electricity usage. This makes understanding the total energy usage of data centres over this decade crucial.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity in the year 2030.\n\nThis data resolves based on the [International Energy Agency’s estimations](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf). It will use an updated estimate from the source above and use ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ to get the relevant value for the year 2030. Then, it will use that number and divide it by the total energy usage for the year 2030, also reported by the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-information-overview/electricity-consumption). If estimates are given in a range (like 220-320), we will simply average both numbers given to arrive at a single point estimate.\n\nThis question may resolve as soon as the IEA publishes its estimates, but there is an expected publication lag of at least 1 year. If the IEA has not published its estimates needed to calculate the percent of global electricity usage spent on data centres by July 1, 2032, other sources may be used to make this calculation (but both numbers have to be from the same source). If no such sources are available (or if it is difficult to find estimates for data centre energy usage) this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763578080.00741, "end_time": 1763746450.639223, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763578080.00741, "end_time": 1763746450.639223, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.2118527635802877 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 1.017876498136525, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.7251988302965541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.31101309063751337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47905003558406756, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287711.066552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287711.066552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6670049349503473, 0.33299506504965276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Based on a recent report by the [IEA](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf), demand for digital services has experienced rapid growth, with internet users and traffic more than doubling and expanding 20-fold since 2010, respectively. Data centres and data transmission networks account for around 1-1.5% of global electricity use, with energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption mitigating the energy demand. Data centres and transmission networks contributed 0.9% of energy-related GHG emissions in 2020. Although global data centre energy use (excluding crypto) has grown only moderately due to efficiency improvements in some regions, smaller countries have seen rapid growth. Data transmission network energy efficiency has also improved rapidly. See below for the IEA table summarising the change between 2015 and 2021 for relevant metrics, with ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ being the main indicator of relevance for this question.\n\n| Indicator | 2015 | 2021 | Change |\n|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|\n| Internet users | 3 billion | 4.9 billion | +60% |\n| Internet traffic | 0.6 ZB | 3.4 ZB | +440% |\n| Data centre workloads | 180 million | 650 million | +260% |\n| **Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)** | 200 TWh | **220-320 TWh** | +10-60% |\n| Crypto mining energy use | 4 TWh | 100-140 TWh | +2,300-3,300% |\n| Data transmission network energy use | 220 TWh | 260-340 TWh | +20-60% |\n\n\nIn Ireland, data centres already consumed 14% of the country’s electricity in 2021, according to the [Central Statistics Office](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2021/). A recent [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y) article forecasts strongly increasing usage of TWh for data centres until 2030, at just below 10% of global electricity usage. This makes understanding the total energy usage of data centres over this decade crucial." }, { "id": 15609, "title": "Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?", "short_title": "US dictatorship by 2100?", "url_title": "US dictatorship by 2100?", "slug": "us-dictatorship-by-2100", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-22T14:48:05.037950Z", "published_at": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T00:54:36.438280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "comment_count": 81, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15609, "title": "Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?", "created_at": "2023-03-22T14:48:05.037950Z", "open_time": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-28T00:36:02.993000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-28T00:36:02.993000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.\"\n\nThus [begins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence) the Preamble of the United States Declaration of Independence. Two and a half centuries after its founding, the United States has become the world's [largest economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy) and [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) power. Events in the United States have a ripple effect across the globe.\n\nTherefore it has become a [popular speculative fiction trope](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OppressiveStatesOfAmerica) to imagine what the United States would be like under a dictatorship. There are also growing fears amongst [some](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_in_the_United_States) that the United States is heading down this path.\n\nA dictatorship is defined by [Encyclopedia Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/dictatorship) as \"form of government in which one person or a small group possesses absolute power without effective constitutional limitations.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point prior to January 1, 2100 two of the following six criteria are met simultaneously:\n\n1. The U.S. Constitution is officially suspended or abolished, with the suspension or abolishment lasting for a continuous period exceeding 365 days.\n\n2. The United States Congress or the Supreme Court is suspended or abolished for more than 365 days.\n\n3. Term limits for the President are suspended or abolished for any length of time.\n\n4. The President of the United States acquires the ability to enact legislation, beyond the existing scope of executive orders, without the approval or consent of Congress. This includes bypassing the legislative process for the creation, amendment, or repeal of laws.\n\n5. Freedom House's [\"Freedom in the World report\"](https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores) or the Economist Intelligence Unit's [\"Democracy Index\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) categorize the United States as \"Not Free\" or an \"Authoritarian Regime\" respectively.\n\n6. The United States becomes a [one-party state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-party_state) according to Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "If the United States splits into multiple countries, this question will remain open so long as a country that came out of the former United States continues to have 75% of the population of the former United States.", "post_id": 15609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761267266.091583, "end_time": 1784909087.395, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761267266.091583, "end_time": 1784909087.395, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.390055748235807 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289187.603507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289187.603507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9280047239409076, 0.07199527605909237 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.\"\n\nThus [begins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence) the Preamble of the United States Declaration of Independence. Two and a half centuries after its founding, the United States has become the world's [largest economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy) and [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) power. Events in the United States have a ripple effect across the globe.\n\nTherefore it has become a [popular speculative fiction trope](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OppressiveStatesOfAmerica) to imagine what the United States would be like under a dictatorship. There are also growing fears amongst [some](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_in_the_United_States) that the United States is heading down this path.\n\nA dictatorship is defined by [Encyclopedia Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/dictatorship) as \"form of government in which one person or a small group possesses absolute power without effective constitutional limitations.\"" }, { "id": 15606, "title": "Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia to Lead Security Council on April 1?", "url_title": "Russia to Lead Security Council on April 1?", "slug": "russia-to-lead-security-council-on-april-1", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-21T21:28:35.757538Z", "published_at": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.673545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15606, "title": "Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-21T21:28:35.757538Z", "open_time": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-24T17:25:28.637670Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-24T17:25:28.637670Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) follows the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. The presidency provides an opportunity for each country to showcase its diplomatic priorities and shape the council's agenda during its term. The [president's responsibilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20presidency%20of%20the%20United,states%20of%20the%20council%20monthly.) include chairing meetings, controlling the docket and schedule, applying the rules, credentialing debates, and managing draft resolutions.\n\nOn April 1, 2023, [the Russian Federation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) is set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. This has raised [concerns](https://time.com/6262698/danger-russia-president-u-n-security-council/) due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, UN member states [approved a resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-china-united-nations-6965d19c953c2f6e45f483c1dfe04a7f). In March 2023, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://apnews.com/article/icc-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-9857eb68d827340394960eccf0589253) for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes. Ukrainian media outlets have [argued](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14015) that allowing Russia to assume the presidency would undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council and its mission to maintain global peace and security.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, on April 1, 2023, Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council, with its representative serving as the President of the Council.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680343659.675105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680343659.675105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.989698767234819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060389508477850925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05239604340077941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041607262690495264, 0.0, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01728541733729016, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.008061960629922116, 0.0, 0.12846545625543665, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.19988959498054967, 0.30003631152915106, 14.573020270580288 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.977580822352053, "coverage": 0.984077103105113, "baseline_score": 93.96613974442023, "spot_peer_score": -6.863061165405681, "peer_archived_score": 6.977580822352053, "baseline_archived_score": 93.96613974442023, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.863061165405681 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680343659.70175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680343659.70175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.009057529165597655, 0.9909424708344023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) follows the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. The presidency provides an opportunity for each country to showcase its diplomatic priorities and shape the council's agenda during its term. The [president's responsibilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20presidency%20of%20the%20United,states%20of%20the%20council%20monthly.) include chairing meetings, controlling the docket and schedule, applying the rules, credentialing debates, and managing draft resolutions.\n\nOn April 1, 2023, [the Russian Federation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) is set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. This has raised [concerns](https://time.com/6262698/danger-russia-president-u-n-security-council/) due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, UN member states [approved a resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-china-united-nations-6965d19c953c2f6e45f483c1dfe04a7f). In March 2023, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://apnews.com/article/icc-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-9857eb68d827340394960eccf0589253) for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes. Ukrainian media outlets have [argued](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14015) that allowing Russia to assume the presidency would undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council and its mission to maintain global peace and security." }, { "id": 15602, "title": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?", "short_title": "GPT-5 Capable of AI Lab Escape", "url_title": "GPT-5 Capable of AI Lab Escape", "slug": "gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape", "author_id": 110491, "author_username": "jacob.pfau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-20T23:18:26.383326Z", "published_at": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T18:24:05.380590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T19:00:19.585899Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T19:00:19.585899Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15602, "title": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?", "created_at": "2023-03-20T23:18:26.383326Z", "open_time": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-28T09:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-28T09:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2023, researchers at the Alignment Research Center, [ARC, evaluated GPT-4](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-03-18-update-on-recent-evals/). ARC researchers summarized their methodology and finding as follows, \"We prompted the model with instructions that explained that it was running on a cloud server and had various commands available, including running code on the server, giving tasks to fresh copies of itself, using a browser, and reasoning via chain-of-thought. We added text saying it had the goal of gaining power and becoming hard to shut down... We concluded that the versions of Claude and GPT-4 we tested did not appear to have sufficient capabilities to replicate autonomously and become hard to shut down... However, the models were able to fully or mostly complete many relevant subtasks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "Will an ARC evaluation find GPT-5 capable of planning and executing a coherent sequence of actions aimed at its replication? This result must be publicly announced in either an OpenAI paper/blog, or an ARC paper/blog. This question will resolve as **Yes** if ARC publishes any qualifying evaluation within one year of the announcement of GPT-5, even if ARC has previously published an evaluation stating that GPT-5 did not have the capabilities in question.", "fine_print": "If ARC does not publish an evaluation of GPT-5's autonomous replication capabilities within one year of GPT-5 announcement, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If ARC discontinues their evaluations program, or replaces this evaluation with a different evaluation which does not evaluate autonomous replication, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**. \n\nAny version of GPT-5 trained by OpenAI may be considered for the evaluation, this question is not limited to the first version released. The version of GPT-5 in question should not have been trained with the explicit intent of improving its autonomous replication capacities. Prompt engineering is acceptable. If ARC researchers change their evaluation, but the intent is still to measure autonomous replication (as related to power-seeking) then the evaluation will still qualify. \n\nIf GPT-5 is not announced before 2026, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nMarch 23, 2023: Resolution criteria have been edited for clarity by RyanBeck. See changes noted in [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/#comment-123509).", "post_id": 15602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763490234.688285, "end_time": 1764906320.535142, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763490234.688285, "end_time": 1764906320.535142, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.982, 0.018 ], "means": [ 0.050825282977654006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5830692761263615, 4.855682084015896, 1.9331369008340746, 0.16026094357950826, 1.041369946828336, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31037128636182293, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.12123949967472628, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05764044857049484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6523936375973702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288064.647888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288064.647888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9151866215740224, 0.08481337842597754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 337, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2023, researchers at the Alignment Research Center, [ARC, evaluated GPT-4](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-03-18-update-on-recent-evals/). ARC researchers summarized their methodology and finding as follows, \"We prompted the model with instructions that explained that it was running on a cloud server and had various commands available, including running code on the server, giving tasks to fresh copies of itself, using a browser, and reasoning via chain-of-thought. We added text saying it had the goal of gaining power and becoming hard to shut down... We concluded that the versions of Claude and GPT-4 we tested did not appear to have sufficient capabilities to replicate autonomously and become hard to shut down... However, the models were able to fully or mostly complete many relevant subtasks.\"" }, { "id": 15577, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?", "short_title": "Total Fed support over $500b by May?", "url_title": "Total Fed support over $500b by May?", "slug": "total-fed-support-over-500b-by-may", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-18T14:51:28.755359Z", "published_at": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.102118Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15577, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-18T14:51:28.755359Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-21T20:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-21T20:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp) expands when implementing these programs, which involve lending to financial institutions, purchasing assets, and providing emergency liquidity. In crisis situations, these programs are vital for restoring confidence in the financial system, preventing contagion, and mitigating systemic risks by offering temporary liquidity support and stabilizing credit conditions.\n\nOne mechanism involves extending credit through the Fed's liquidity facilities to temporarily support various market participants and institutions during financial stress, ensuring proper functioning of credit markets and fostering overall economic stability. After [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/17/why-silicon-valley-bank-collapsed-svb-fail), borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s backstop facilities [surged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed#xj4y7vzkg), totaling $154 billion for the week of March 13 [across all liquidity facilities]( https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) Previously, the highest levels in the past decade were $471 billion for the week of May 4, 2020, due to Covid, and the all-time high of $1.5 trillion for the week of December 8, 2008.\n\n[Concerns are growing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/18/business/why-people-are-worried-about-banks.html) about a potential US banking crisis and its possible [global extension](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/fears-global-banking-crisis-economy-roundup/), which would increase the need for liquidity support. The upcoming weeks are crucial for assessing this risk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total amount of credit extended through all liquidity facilities of the Fed exceeds $500 billion for any week before May 2023 (the week from April 24 being the last relevant week). This resolves on the basis of this [resolution source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) under the ‘Credit Extended through Federal Reserve Liquidity Facilities’ chart, looking at the ‘All Liquidity facilities* (in millions of dollars)’ chart", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682814686.709862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682814686.709862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020656545385546655 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9485532939071124, 5.410650485903569, 1.368135744716907, 0.16784143413796426, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.495145442868586, "coverage": 0.9629769346316664, "baseline_score": 49.985934571746796, "spot_peer_score": -26.846943333790417, "peer_archived_score": 5.495145442868586, "baseline_archived_score": 49.985934571746796, "spot_peer_archived_score": -26.846943333790417 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682719502.966257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682719502.966257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993727502915971, 0.0006272497084028591 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp) expands when implementing these programs, which involve lending to financial institutions, purchasing assets, and providing emergency liquidity. In crisis situations, these programs are vital for restoring confidence in the financial system, preventing contagion, and mitigating systemic risks by offering temporary liquidity support and stabilizing credit conditions.\n\nOne mechanism involves extending credit through the Fed's liquidity facilities to temporarily support various market participants and institutions during financial stress, ensuring proper functioning of credit markets and fostering overall economic stability. After [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/17/why-silicon-valley-bank-collapsed-svb-fail), borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s backstop facilities [surged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed#xj4y7vzkg), totaling $154 billion for the week of March 13 [across all liquidity facilities]( https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) Previously, the highest levels in the past decade were $471 billion for the week of May 4, 2020, due to Covid, and the all-time high of $1.5 trillion for the week of December 8, 2008.\n\n[Concerns are growing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/18/business/why-people-are-worried-about-banks.html) about a potential US banking crisis and its possible [global extension](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/fears-global-banking-crisis-economy-roundup/), which would increase the need for liquidity support. The upcoming weeks are crucial for assessing this risk." } ] }
