Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=380
{ "count": 6265, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=360", "results": [ { "id": 39518, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "short_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "url_title": "Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "slug": "netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-throughout-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.512669Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T11:21:00.319403Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.786079Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38895, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:06.513063Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T09:50:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T11:20:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31118). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31118,\"question_id\":30848}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration from January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. If Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister at any point during 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "As long as Netanyahu retains the official title of Prime Minister, this question will not resolve as **No**, even if he is suspended, has temporarily stepped back due to health or other reasons, or an acting Prime Minister has been appointed to fulfill his duties.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"temporarily\" is defined as Netanyahu resuming his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **No,** even if he officially retains the official title of Prime Minister. This 30 day period must complete before December 31, 2025, otherwise the question will resolve as **Yes** if he holds the office of Prime Minister of the State of Israel.", "post_id": 39518, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760613358.679795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760613358.679795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7849173152150838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 12.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31118). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2024, since the end of 2022, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 17 years.\n\nThroughout 2024, Netanyahu's leadership has faced significant challenges, including [ongoing corruption trials](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g30271wxwo) and international legal actions. In November 2024, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges) for Netanyahu, alleging war crimes committed during the Israel–Hamas conflict. Despite these legal issues, Netanyahu has maintained his position as Prime Minister. Israeli law [permits a prime minister](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-corruption-trial-divides-israeli-public-2024-12-09/) to remain in office unless convicted and after all appeals are exhausted.\n\nPublic opinion has been divided regarding Netanyahu's tenure. In July 2024, [a poll showed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-72-of-israelis-think-netanyahu-should-quit-over-oct-7-failures/) that 72% of Israelis think Netanyahu should quit over the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks in October 2023.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31118,\"question_id\":30848}}`" }, { "id": 39515, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "short_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "url_title": "Livestock antibiotics sales increased by 0.5% in 2024?", "slug": "livestock-antibiotics-sales-increased-by-05-in-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.420694Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:10:00.187810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.679625Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38892, "title": "Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.421090Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T06:39:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T08:09:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:11:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31125). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31125,\"question_id\":30853}}`", "resolution_criteria": "*Note: This question draws on forthcoming 2024 data to align with the Future Perfect forecast.*\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 total kilograms of medically important antimicrobial drugs sold or distributed for use in food-producing animals in the US is at least 0.5% higher than the same number for 2023.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the first report by the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine that includes the full numbers for 2024. If the CVM does not publish the relevant numbers before April 1, 2026, alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might be used, as long as they are roughly consistent with the previously released CVM numbers.\n* The relevant number for 2023 was 6,127,991 kg and could be found in CVM's [2023 Summary Report On Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals), II. Data on All Marketed Drugs (3), Table 2a, as the Subtotal of Medically Important drugs. If CVM, or an alternative credible source in case the CVM does not report these, shows a different number when data for 2024 are published, the updated number will be used.\n* If the 2023 number stays at 6,127,991 kg, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2024 number is at least 6,158,631 kg.", "post_id": 39515, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758009047.219709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.405 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758009047.219709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.405 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3398138835150902 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 11.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:11:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31125). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Approximately 80%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4638249/) of antibiotics sold in the United States are used in animal agriculture. Concerns about [antibiotic resistance](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22922018/antibiotic-resistance-epidemic-drug-resistant-infections) have [called into question](https://www.nrdc.org/bio/david-wallinga-md/antibiotic-use-remains-far-too-intensive-us-livestock) the widespread treatment of livestock with antibiotics and its potential contribution to the growth in [antibiotic resistant bacteria](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance).\n\nThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes an [annual report](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) on antimicrobials sold or distributed to food producing animals. The executive summary reports the following:\n\n> Domestic sales and distribution of medically important antimicrobials approved for use in food-producing animals (Table 2b):\n> - decreased by 2% from 2022 through 2023.- decreased by 37% from 2015 (the year of peak sales) through 2023.\n> - decreased by 35% from 2014 through 2023.\n\nAntibiotics use has been decreasing in various countries:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sales-antibiotics-livestock-europe?country=GBR~FRA~DEU~ITA~NLD&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\" /> \nThe US [saw a similar decrease](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/2023-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals) in 2017, but the numbers have stayed stable since then.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31125,\"question_id\":30853}}`" }, { "id": 39514, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "url_title": "Will Cuomo, Adams or Sliwa drop out of the 2025 mayoral race?", "slug": "will-cuomo-adams-or-sliwa-drop-out-of-the-2025-mayoral-race", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:03.805888Z", "published_at": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T14:09:00.143332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:04.132827Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38891, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:03.806312Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T12:38:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T14:08:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-10 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39112). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39112,\"question_id\":38441}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2025, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa or anyone authorized to speak on their behalf (such as their campaigns) officially announce that they have suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended their campaigns in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election).  ", "fine_print": "A candidate deciding to return to the race, such as Ross Perot dropping out of the 1992 presidential election and then later [re-enterin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_1992_presidential_campaign#Re-entrance)g, will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nAn explicitly temporary suspension of a campaign, such as John McCain's 2008 \"[suspension](https://www.npr.org/2008/09/25/95038824/charting-mccains-suspended-campaign)\" of his campaign for US president, will not count unless it becomes indefinite.\n\nA dropped-out candidate need not be removed from NYC's electoral ballot; according to media reports ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/politics/cuomo-mamdani-mayor-november-ballot)) the withdrawal deadline to be removed from the ballot has already expired. ", "post_id": 39514, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757252022.065093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757252022.065093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21531626279161686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 20.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-10 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39112). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to improve your forecasting skills.*\n\nAt the time of this question, Zohran Mamdani, as the official candidate of the Democratic Party, is on a trajectory to win the [blue](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/new-york-city/new-york-city-2024-election-vote-totals/5959798/) city of New York. He leads the [polling averages](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling) with 38.5% of the vote, as compared with 24.6% for former New York governor Andrew Cuomo and 10.9% for Mayor Eric Adams. The fourth major candidate, Republican Curtis Sliwa, is at 14.8% in the polling averages. Ideologically, Mamdani is a progressive leftist, while Cuomo and Adams are positioned more toward the center. Thus Mamdani, although he has significantly under 50% of the vote, has a comfortable lead against a divided field. \n\nThis divided field has led to calls, including among the candidates themselves, for someone to drop out. According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2025/08/05/cuomo-and-adams-wont-get-out-of-each-others-way-00493471): \n\n> You’d be hard pressed to find a collection of New Yorkers who are more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “The only shot that the anti-Mamdani forces have of stopping the Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city is to consolidate. The chances of that happening are slim to none.”\n\nMost polls ([example](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TggWOuou2l51baFzG48GhTdRacSh0YbQyWu8Vjs0lH4/edit?slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87#slide=id.g3718dd780c5_1_87)) find that in the event of one of the non-Mamdani candidates dropping out, most of their support gets distributed to the remaining field rather than to Mamdani, which thus reduces Mamdani's lead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39112,\"question_id\":38441}}`" }, { "id": 39511, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "short_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "url_title": "Transformers as LM SOTA in 2025", "slug": "transformers-as-lm-sota-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.082811Z", "published_at": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T21:34:00.160939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.429362Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38888, "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:02.083224Z", "open_time": "2025-09-25T20:03:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T21:33:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-07-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4892,\"question_id\":4892}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\n\n> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\n\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n\nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n\n1. A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \n\n> language model \"state of the art\"\n\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\n\nOR\n\n2. [This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39511, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758833680.128528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758833680.128528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8279701868672384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 27.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-07-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4892,\"question_id\":4892}}`" }, { "id": 39508, "title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis in 2025?", "slug": "will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:00.374854Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T03:45:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T05:16:00.332332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:00.665962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T03:45:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38885, "title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:00.375271Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T03:45:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T05:15:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 15:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nWashington Post (July 24, 2025): [Is a Mamdani repeat coming to the Midwest? A democratic socialist is getting a boost in Minnesota.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-a-mamdani-repeat-coming-to-the-midwest-a-democratic-socialist-is-getting-a-boost-in-minnesota/ar-AA1JcfEP)\n\n> The Democratic Party in Minneapolis over the weekend endorsed a democratic socialist over the two-term incumbent in the city’s mayoral race, the latest indicator of increased momentum for the progressive left in local races across the country.\n\n> Delegates of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota’s most populous city on Saturday threw their support behind state Sen. Omar Fateh, who defeated Mayor Jacob Frey, at the party’s convention. The endorsement comes less than a month after Zohran Mamdani, also a democratic socialist and state lawmaker, won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York.\n\n> The mayoral race is a ranked-choice election, like in New York, and the general election will take place in November when all candidates will compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. A Democrat is expected to win the race, as Minneapolis is a heavily Democratic city that has been led by Democratic mayors for more than 47 years.\n\n> While several candidates are running, the DFL endorsement effectively pits a democratic socialist against a relatively more moderate Frey. The mayoral race is far from over, according to political observers — but the endorsement does boost Fateh’s profile. It also represents a major win for liberals, and is likely to draw national attention and money on the race.\n\nSince the turn of the 21st Century, incumbent mayors of Minneapolis have been re-elected 60% of the time: in 2021, 2009, 2005. Conversely, they have lost 40% of the time: in 2017 (to the current mayor, Jacob Frey) and in 2001. \n\nAt the time of this question, there has been little public polling in the race. A poll from May 2025 [found](https://www.mplsforthemany.com/polling) Mayor Frey with -21% net favorability, which is 20 points worse than in September 2021, when Frey won the final round by 12.5 points against a progressive field that was divided into two main contenders, as compared with one (Fateh) in the 2025 election. \n\nMayor Frey is also appealing his loss of the Minneapolis Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsement, according to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5412323-minneapolis-mayor-frey-appeal-endorsement/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38922,\"question_id\":38271}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Omar Fateh is elected mayor of Minneapolis in the [2025 mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Minneapolis_mayoral_election). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39508, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758085418.101198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758085418.101198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.46978535383450554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 15:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nWashington Post (July 24, 2025): [Is a Mamdani repeat coming to the Midwest? A democratic socialist is getting a boost in Minnesota.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-a-mamdani-repeat-coming-to-the-midwest-a-democratic-socialist-is-getting-a-boost-in-minnesota/ar-AA1JcfEP)\n\n> The Democratic Party in Minneapolis over the weekend endorsed a democratic socialist over the two-term incumbent in the city’s mayoral race, the latest indicator of increased momentum for the progressive left in local races across the country.\n\n> Delegates of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota’s most populous city on Saturday threw their support behind state Sen. Omar Fateh, who defeated Mayor Jacob Frey, at the party’s convention. The endorsement comes less than a month after Zohran Mamdani, also a democratic socialist and state lawmaker, won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York.\n\n> The mayoral race is a ranked-choice election, like in New York, and the general election will take place in November when all candidates will compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. A Democrat is expected to win the race, as Minneapolis is a heavily Democratic city that has been led by Democratic mayors for more than 47 years.\n\n> While several candidates are running, the DFL endorsement effectively pits a democratic socialist against a relatively more moderate Frey. The mayoral race is far from over, according to political observers — but the endorsement does boost Fateh’s profile. It also represents a major win for liberals, and is likely to draw national attention and money on the race.\n\nSince the turn of the 21st Century, incumbent mayors of Minneapolis have been re-elected 60% of the time: in 2021, 2009, 2005. Conversely, they have lost 40% of the time: in 2017 (to the current mayor, Jacob Frey) and in 2001. \n\nAt the time of this question, there has been little public polling in the race. A poll from May 2025 [found](https://www.mplsforthemany.com/polling) Mayor Frey with -21% net favorability, which is 20 points worse than in September 2021, when Frey won the final round by 12.5 points against a progressive field that was divided into two main contenders, as compared with one (Fateh) in the 2025 election. \n\nMayor Frey is also appealing his loss of the Minneapolis Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsement, according to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5412323-minneapolis-mayor-frey-appeal-endorsement/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38922,\"question_id\":38271}}`" }, { "id": 39504, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "short_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "url_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "slug": "aerial-drone-attack-in-the-us-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:57.613561Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T13:16:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T19:15:52.698269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:57.957071Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-21T13:16:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38881, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:57.613962Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T13:16:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T14:46:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-03-25 18:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20953). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nWeaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20953,\"question_id\":20953}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves a **Yes** if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.", "fine_print": "The reports from credible sources must explicitly mention the words \"terrorist attack\", \"act of terrorism\" or a similar phrase. Deaths or injuries caused by accident, during military training, or as a result of criminal shootouts will not trigger the resolution. Attacks by the governments of foreign countries will generally not be considered to be terrorist attacks.\n\nThe drone in question must meet following criteria:\n\n* Be remotely controlled\n* Have an explosive payload\n* Have propellers or another means of flying and be in a state of flight at the moment of the event (that is, not lying on the ground or in a storage)\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the United States includes the land area that belongs to any of the [50 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States) and the District of Columbia. The following territories will not trigger the resolution of the question:\n\n* [Territories of the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States)\n* US embassies and consulates in foreign countries\n* US ships\n* US military bases in foreign countries\n\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt. If it is unclear whether an event was a terrorist attack resolution may wait for additional confirmation. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 39504, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761057788.407655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761057788.407655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12591930746159172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.0, 5.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 5.0, 8.0, 7.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-03-25 18:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20953). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nWeaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20953,\"question_id\":20953}}`" }, { "id": 39502, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "short_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "url_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "slug": "3-ai-labs-constrain-capabilities-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:56.401547Z", "published_at": "2025-10-29T08:38:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T10:09:00.289010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:56.696517Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-29T08:38:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38879, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:56.401939Z", "open_time": "2025-10-29T08:38:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T10:08:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17104). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17104,\"question_id\":17104}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if by Dec 31 2025, three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "* A \"joint statement\" refers to a document that is explicitly authored or endorsed by each party. A technical paper does not qualify.\n\n* \"committing to constrain their AI's capabilities\" will be interpreted narrowly. For example, a commitment to prevent certain types of restricted speech, or a commitment to always do Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback, will not qualify. The constraints must be on the general capabilities of the AIs - for example, committing to not using more than a certain amount of compute, or committing to not deploying a model until it verifiably cannot perform certain tasks, such as recursive self-improvement.", "post_id": 39502, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761731575.797119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.060000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.14785714285714285 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761731575.797119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.060000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.14785714285714285 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8521428571428571, 0.14785714285714285 ], "means": [ 0.18277661404686601 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 10.0, 4.0, 6.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 25.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17104). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17104,\"question_id\":17104}}`" }, { "id": 39498, "title": "Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?", "slug": "openai-tops-chatbot-arena-at-end-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:54.139851Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T18:54:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T20:25:00.367150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:54.450119Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T15:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:54:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38875, "title": "Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:54.140248Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:54:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T15:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T20:24:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n\nAs of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.", "fine_print": "* An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n* A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n* The StyleControl option will not be selected for the comparison.\n* If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.", "post_id": 39498, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759436367.84395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759436367.84395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37877091027137405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 20.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n\nAs of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960}}`" }, { "id": 39491, "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "short_title": "\"Somerton Man\" father of \"Jestyn's\" son", "url_title": "\"Somerton Man\" father of \"Jestyn's\" son", "slug": "somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.727021Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T08:40:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T10:11:00.184790Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.985518Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T08:40:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38868, "title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.727440Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T08:40:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T10:10:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-06-14 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNo background provided\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7288,\"question_id\":7288}}`", "resolution_criteria": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \n\nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the *Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam*, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \n\nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \n\nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \n\nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \n\nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \n\n***Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)***\n\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n\nIf there is no positive confirmation by December 31, 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39491, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759312628.457055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759312628.457055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.21329202114007909 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 3.0, 11.0, 5.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-06-14 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNo background provided\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7288,\"question_id\":7288}}`" }, { "id": 39490, "title": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US withdraw from arms control agreements in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US withdraw from arms control agreements in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-withdraw-from-arms-control-agreements-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.115689Z", "published_at": "2025-10-07T05:48:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T07:19:00.233937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.442603Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-07T05:48:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38867, "title": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:49.116100Z", "open_time": "2025-10-07T05:48:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T07:18:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 15:33:28 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36025). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Trump administration’s first term saw a pattern of withdrawing from international arms control agreements, including:\n\n* **INF Treaty (**[**2019**](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/)**)** – U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.\n* **Open Skies Treaty (**[**2020**](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/us-completes-open-skies-treaty-withdrawal)**)** – Trump announced withdrawal, citing Russian non-compliance.\n* **Iran Nuclear Deal (**[**2018**](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html)**)** – The U.S. exited the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions.\n\nWith Trump's return to office in 2025, there is renewed concern that his administration may withdraw from key arms control agreements, particularly those seen as restricting U.S. military capabilities. The agreements most at risk include:\n\n1. [**New START**](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty) **(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)**, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, limiting strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It is set to expire in 2026, but there are concerns that Trump may refuse renewal or suspend compliance before then.\n2. [**The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)**](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention) a global ban on chemical weapons with strong bipartisan support, but potential friction due to compliance disputes with China and Russia.\n3. [**The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)**](https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/) the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation. While withdrawal is unlikely, Trump has expressed skepticism toward arms control constraints in the past.\n4. [**The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)**](https://www.ctbto.org/our-mission/the-treaty) though never ratified by the U.S., Trump officials previously floated the idea of resuming nuclear testing—potentially violating the spirit of the treaty.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36025,\"question_id\":35459}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the Trump administration has formally attempted to withdraw from or significantly reduce U.S. participation in at least one of the following seven international arms control agreements:\n\n* New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)\n* The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)\n* The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)\n* The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)\n* Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)\n* Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)\n* Outer Space Treaty (OST)\n\nA formal attempt to withdraw includes, but is not limited to, any of the following:\n\n1. Official notification of withdrawal: The U.S. government formally notifies treaty partners, the United Nations, or other relevant bodies of its intent to exit an arms control agreement.\n2. Legally binding action: The administration takes executive action, submits a withdrawal request to Congress (where required), or engages in legal or procedural steps toward exiting an agreement.\n3. Suspension of compliance: The administration officially announces that it will no longer comply with the obligations of an agreement, effectively nullifying U.S. participation.\n4. Substantive defunding: The administration or Congress enacts a significant funding cut (at least 50%) to an agreement’s implementation, undermining U.S. participation.\n\nIf no formal attempt to withdraw from any of the seven treaties is made by January 1, 2026, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will *not* resolve as **Yes** based solely on:\n\n* Rhetorical statements: If Trump or senior officials publicly criticize an agreement but do not take concrete steps to exit.\n* Exploratory reviews: If the administration commissions a study or internal review on withdrawing but does not take formal action.\n* Negotiated revisions: If the administration renegotiates an agreement but does not seek withdrawal.\n\n***\n\n* CTBT was never ratified by the US. Despite that, this question could still resolve based the US announcing a policy of non-compliance, as stated in criterion #3.\n* New START is set to expire in February 2026. A non-extension would not resolve this question as **Yes**. The US would have to either withdraw before February 2026 or extend the treaty and withdraw afterwards.\n\nIf there is ambiguity regarding whether an attempt meets the criteria, expert assessments from organizations such as the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/), or [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/) will be considered by Metaculus to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39490, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759820074.406018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759820074.406018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24252263967915988 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 17.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 15:33:28 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36025). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Trump administration’s first term saw a pattern of withdrawing from international arms control agreements, including:\n\n* **INF Treaty (**[**2019**](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/)**)** – U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.\n* **Open Skies Treaty (**[**2020**](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/us-completes-open-skies-treaty-withdrawal)**)** – Trump announced withdrawal, citing Russian non-compliance.\n* **Iran Nuclear Deal (**[**2018**](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html)**)** – The U.S. exited the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions.\n\nWith Trump's return to office in 2025, there is renewed concern that his administration may withdraw from key arms control agreements, particularly those seen as restricting U.S. military capabilities. The agreements most at risk include:\n\n1. [**New START**](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty) **(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)**, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, limiting strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It is set to expire in 2026, but there are concerns that Trump may refuse renewal or suspend compliance before then.\n2. [**The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)**](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention) a global ban on chemical weapons with strong bipartisan support, but potential friction due to compliance disputes with China and Russia.\n3. [**The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)**](https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/) the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation. While withdrawal is unlikely, Trump has expressed skepticism toward arms control constraints in the past.\n4. [**The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)**](https://www.ctbto.org/our-mission/the-treaty) though never ratified by the U.S., Trump officials previously floated the idea of resuming nuclear testing—potentially violating the spirit of the treaty.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36025,\"question_id\":35459}}`" }, { "id": 39489, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-ptc-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:48.416390Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T12:25:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T13:56:00.244367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:48.751837Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-21T12:25:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38866, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:48.416816Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T12:25:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T13:55:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36487). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36487,\"question_id\":35922}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Production Tax Credits (PTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45Y](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-production-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45y/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those established by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for PTC only for specific categories will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39489, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761054508.652249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761054508.652249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20528048716523783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 24.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36487). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36487,\"question_id\":35922}}`" }, { "id": 39488, "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "short_title": "Google Uses Explainable Ads by 2026", "url_title": "Google Uses Explainable Ads by 2026", "slug": "google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:47.822260Z", "published_at": "2025-10-25T11:12:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T12:43:00.193621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:48.105820Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-25T11:12:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38865, "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:47.822686Z", "open_time": "2025-10-25T11:12:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T12:42:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-12-20 06:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nExplainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":8947,\"question_id\":8947}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39488, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761395014.011276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761395014.011276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.33247272648931303 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-12-20 06:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8947). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nExplainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":8947,\"question_id\":8947}}`" }, { "id": 39484, "title": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?", "short_title": "Inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in 2025?", "slug": "inflation-adjusted-gas-prices-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:45.014715Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T16:10:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T17:41:00.206850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:45.371048Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-30T16:10:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38861, "title": "Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:45.015117Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T16:10:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:40:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31303). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nGas prices are a highly visible economic indicator in the US, as [almost 90%](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/number-of-drivers-in-us.html) of American adults drive. Gas prices have an outsized [effect on consumer sentiment](https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2022/Oct/27/1-Gas-Prices-Impact-Consumer-Sentiment_Consumers), and consequently play a significant role [when it comes to elections](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election). President-elect Donald Trump raised the issue of gas prices repeatedly during his campaign and [promised to bring gas prices down](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-elected-president-ll-202724792.html).\n\nThe US Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes [national retail gasoline prices](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) based on a volume-weighted [survey sample](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php) of retail gasoline outlets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31303,\"question_id\":30944}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if inflation-adjusted national average gas prices for December 2025 (in dollars per gallon) are higher than national average gas prices for December 2024. Resolution will be determined according to the monthly data provided by the [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) (EIA), adjusted for inflation using [BLS' CPI Inflation Calculator](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm).", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve when both the EIA gas price and CPI inflation index for December 2025 are first publicly available and accessed by Metaculus.\n* If data from the US EIA or the CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is not available, Metaculus may select a similar source of data or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion.\n* EIA's series ID for gas prices is `PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG.M`\n* BLS' series ID for the consumer price index is `CPIAUCSL`", "post_id": 39484, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759253817.862213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3583333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759253817.862213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3583333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6416666666666666, 0.3583333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.3811917237165709 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 11.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31303). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nGas prices are a highly visible economic indicator in the US, as [almost 90%](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/number-of-drivers-in-us.html) of American adults drive. Gas prices have an outsized [effect on consumer sentiment](https://www.convenience.org/Media/Daily/2022/Oct/27/1-Gas-Prices-Impact-Consumer-Sentiment_Consumers), and consequently play a significant role [when it comes to elections](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election). President-elect Donald Trump raised the issue of gas prices repeatedly during his campaign and [promised to bring gas prices down](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-elected-president-ll-202724792.html).\n\nThe US Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes [national retail gasoline prices](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet\\&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg\\&f=m) based on a volume-weighted [survey sample](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php) of retail gasoline outlets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31303,\"question_id\":30944}}`" }, { "id": 39482, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "short_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "url_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "slug": "will-cracker-barrel-have-falling-sales-for-its-q1-fy2026-august-october-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:43.816801Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T08:25:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:56:00.276271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:44.090851Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T08:25:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38859, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:43.817210Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T08:25:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T09:55:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-22 01:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39303). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nCracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39303,\"question_id\":38647}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cracker Barrel, Inc.'s first quarter total revenue in its fiscal year 2026 is less than its first quarter total revenue in FY 2025.  \r\n\r\nThe Q1 2026 total revenue figure is expected to encompass the 13-week period through October 31, 2025, and Q1 2025 encompassed the 13-week period through November 1, 2025. Question resolves according to results posted at [SEC Edgar](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1067294\\&owner=exclude) or Cracker Barrel's [Investor Relations](https://investor.cbrlgroup.com/) page.\r\n\r\nQ1 2025 [had](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067294/000155837024016001/cbrl-20241101x10q.htm#CONDENSEDCONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFINCOMEL) total revenue of \\$845.089 million. Thus, the question resolves as **Yes** if Q1 2026 total revenue is less than that amount.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39482, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758102589.531237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4255555555555556 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758102589.531237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4255555555555556 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5317631431650509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-22 01:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39303). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nCracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39303,\"question_id\":38647}}`" }, { "id": 39477, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "short_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "url_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "slug": "us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:40.657729Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T06:12:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:43:00.232601Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:41.095597Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-28T06:12:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38854, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:40.658167Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T06:12:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:42:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17110). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17110,\"question_id\":17110}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, the US or California government requires a license or permit of some type to do large training runs of AIs, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question will be interpreted broadly. There are many types of licenses and permits, and most would qualify, regardless of the requirements stipulated to get such licenses or permits, as long as they apply generally to training large AI systems in either all of the US or in California.\n\n\"Large training runs\" here can be measured in various ways, and will be interpreted broadly. If measured in FLOPs, then admins will define large as at least 10% the estimated FLOPs used by OpenAI to train GPT-4, 2.1 * 10^25.", "post_id": 39477, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761637186.564755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761637186.564755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14788682979941561 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 8.0, 10.0, 10.0, 4.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17110). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17110,\"question_id\":17110}}`" }, { "id": 39476, "title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "short_title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "url_title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "slug": "will-us-imports-from-brazil-in-november-2025-exceed-those-of-november-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:40.081982Z", "published_at": "2025-09-24T16:30:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T18:01:00.171978Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:40.361133Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T16:30:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38853, "title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:40.082403Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T16:30:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T18:00:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 13:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38918). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n\n> Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n\n> In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n\n> Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n\n> Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n\nTop products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n\nIn the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n\n| Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n| ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n| 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n| 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n| 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n| 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n| 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n| 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n| 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n| 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n| 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n| 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n| 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n| 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n| 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n| 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n| 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n| 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n| 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n| 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n| 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n| 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n| 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n| 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n| 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n| 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n| 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n| 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n| 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n| 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n| 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n| 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n| 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n| | | | | |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38918,\"question_id\":38268}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the dollar amount of imports into the United States from Brazil for November 2025 exceeds the amount for November 2024, according to data presented by the US Census Bureau at its [Trade in Goods with Brazil](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3510.html) tracker. ", "fine_print": "Question resolves based on the amount shown when first accessed by Metaculus. Later updates will not cause the question to re-resolve.", "post_id": 39476, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758734849.30953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758734849.30953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36384676422952433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 13:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38918). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n\n> Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n\n> In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n\n> Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n\n> Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n\nTop products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n\nIn the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n\n| Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n| ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n| 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n| 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n| 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n| 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n| 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n| 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n| 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n| 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n| 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n| 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n| 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n| 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n| 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n| 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n| 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n| 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n| 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n| 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n| 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n| 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n| 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n| 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n| 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n| 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n| 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n| 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n| 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n| 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n| 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n| 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n| 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n| | | | | |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38918,\"question_id\":38268}}`" }, { "id": 39463, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "short_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "url_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "slug": "1-eur-costs-less-than-1-usd-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:32.037600Z", "published_at": "2025-10-19T12:21:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T13:52:00.320192Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:32.477160Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-19T12:21:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38840, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:32.038367Z", "open_time": "2025-10-19T12:21:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T13:51:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, 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The original question opened on 2024-01-25 19:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21167). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAfter reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21167,\"question_id\":21167}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.", "fine_print": "Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/history/#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) can be used.\n\nIf the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.", "post_id": 39463, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760881870.977232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760881870.977232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13985496889543902 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 6.0, 11.0, 8.0, 15.0, 2.0, 4.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-01-25 19:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21167). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAfter reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21167,\"question_id\":21167}}`" }, { "id": 39462, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "short_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "url_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "slug": "ukraine-revokes-passports-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.326996Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T14:40:00.252415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.716541Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38839, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.327400Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-04-30 12:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22560). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nShortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":22560,\"question_id\":22560}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Ukraine government has initiated a policy of revoking previously valid passports of Ukrainian men, deemed to be of draft age, who reside outside the country.\n\nIf no credible sources report such revocation before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This passport revocation announcement must describe the revocation as either nationwide or affecting at least 1,000 draft-eligible Ukrainian men abroad without proper military service documents.", "post_id": 39462, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759243131.519519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759243131.519519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15268977601895445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 23.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-04-30 12:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22560). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nShortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":22560,\"question_id\":22560}}`" }, { "id": 39460, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "slug": "will-the-iras-amptc-start-requiring-domestic-materials", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.143575Z", "published_at": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T21:24:00.209568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.383415Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38837, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.143980Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).", "fine_print": "Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**", "post_id": 39460, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761168121.345784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761168121.345784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.41065619512030005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925}}`" }, { "id": 39451, "title": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?", "short_title": "Madrid housing >18%?", "url_title": "Madrid housing >18%?", "slug": "madrid-housing-18", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.133372Z", "published_at": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T19:28:00.330630Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.396321Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T00:05:16.949239Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38828, "title": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.133769Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the sales price data published on the [ <u>Idealista portal</u> ](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), the average price of housing in the **city of Madrid** per square meter rises by more than 18% from December 2024 to December 2025. It will be answered as **No** if the increase is 18% or less, or if there is a decrease in prices.", "fine_print": "* At the time of writing this question, December 2024 prices are €4,952/m² according to the graph and table \"Historical variation in sales prices in Madrid\" in the resolution source. However, the increase will be calculated based on the December 2024 prices shown when the December 2025 data is published.\n * Nominal figures will be compared, without discounting the effect of inflation.\n\n • If Idealista has not published data for December 2025 by January 7, this question will be resolved based on the increase from November 2024 to November 2025. If this is not available, this question will be **cancelled**.", "post_id": 39451, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758741318.817087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758741318.817087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.42490717464204747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020}}`" } ] }
