Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3820
{ "count": 6380, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3840", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3800", "results": [ { "id": 15088, "title": "Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?", "short_title": "US Debt Downgraded in 2023", "url_title": "US Debt Downgraded in 2023", "slug": "us-debt-downgraded-in-2023", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T21:48:29.448852Z", "published_at": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.047211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15088, "title": "Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T21:48:29.448852Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T08:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T08:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling) being [hit](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64322574). A default may lead to a downgrade in credit rating, which may lead to higher borrowing costs and lower liquidity.\n\nThe \"big three\" credit rating agencies listed above reassess their ratings several times per year, or after major events such as currency shocks, recessions, or changes in fiscal policy.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2024, the credit rating for US sovereign debt is worse than AAA for Fitch, worse than Aaa for Moody's, or worse than AA+ for S&P. Ratings \"outlooks\" like stable, negative, or positive will not be considered. Resolution source is official announcement from the ratings agencies, which can currently be found below:\n\n* [Fitch](https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/united-states-of-america-80442210)\n\n* [Moody's](https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/United-States-of-America-Government-of-credit-rating-790575?cy=can)\n\n* [S&P](https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/press-releases", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15088, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690924902.087844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690924902.087844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.14293071775260255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.316876429279165, 2.6453051136453722, 2.4331768507492364, 0.5882704792100008, 0.6447510370927527, 0.7659065160475311, 0.0, 1.4612774235738175, 0.17652900265006702, 0.20070646273437914, 0.03627506129959581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8096751149534416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6187082768234327, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.018546053356138 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.8657113379815535, "coverage": 0.5286839591519544, "baseline_score": -125.17660514939686, "spot_peer_score": 44.59735922785582, "peer_archived_score": 2.8657113379815535, "baseline_archived_score": -125.17660514939686, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.59735922785582 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690875609.879221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690875609.879221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948423401560179, 0.005157659843982089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling) being [hit](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64322574). A default may lead to a downgrade in credit rating, which may lead to higher borrowing costs and lower liquidity.\n\nThe \"big three\" credit rating agencies listed above reassess their ratings several times per year, or after major events such as currency shocks, recessions, or changes in fiscal policy." }, { "id": 15085, "title": "Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Parli. Elections 2023 on Schedule", "url_title": "Ukrainian Parli. Elections 2023 on Schedule", "slug": "ukrainian-parli-elections-2023-on-schedule", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T13:53:35.524610Z", "published_at": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.939872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15085, "title": "Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T13:53:35.524610Z", "open_time": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-16T15:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-16T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has [not yet been confirmed](https://ukraine-elections.com.ua/en/election_data/upcoming_elections).\n\nSince Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under [20%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20by%2011%20November%2C%20the,about%2018%25%20of%20Ukraine's%20territory.) of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s [EU aspirations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-could-become-eu-member-what-would-mean) will add to the difficulty of this decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the Ukrainian parliamentary elections are held before 30 October, 2023. This will be ascertained based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the election.\n\nFor an election to count for the purposes of this question, it has to have at least 50% of the [2019 turnout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), i.e. at least 14,986,870 votes cast. This condition is there to ensure that elections are not only held in a small part of the country but are indeed nationwide elections.\n\nThis question will resolve **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697216915.383157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697216915.383157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04440896716622129 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.964607477405179, 8.543777263239491, 0.2506341547763609, 0.4402137645092299, 0.0, 0.5742105041668133, 0.0819027810168348, 0.0, 0.018320424718864442, 0.006338741283070649, 0.036603128193672764, 0.0, 0.010624089654698259, 0.0, 0.011707819368802578, 0.03618554893089769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004003664807775071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032331371144735485, 0.0, 0.18151865870128317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005852206626807848, 0.022088484576423383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017873414785854367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002053222160297131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006066352925394429, 0.0, 0.002733989519125462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002071361526079036, 0.0, 0.003117676036554478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010969478514417234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5561350755584805 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 35.32159307139242, "coverage": 0.9984299722535741, "baseline_score": 20.5567017073101, "spot_peer_score": -1.3821896552678838, "peer_archived_score": 35.32159307139242, "baseline_archived_score": 20.5567017073101, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3821896552678838 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697269302.729445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697269302.729445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987766932087426, 0.0012233067912573656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 261, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has [not yet been confirmed](https://ukraine-elections.com.ua/en/election_data/upcoming_elections).\n\nSince Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under [20%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20by%2011%20November%2C%20the,about%2018%25%20of%20Ukraine's%20territory.) of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s [EU aspirations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-could-become-eu-member-what-would-mean) will add to the difficulty of this decision." }, { "id": 15084, "title": "If Erdoğan loses the 2023 presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "short_title": "Erdoğan Abdicating After Election Defeat", "url_title": "Erdoğan Abdicating After Election Defeat", "slug": "erdogan-abdicating-after-election-defeat", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T11:02:18.219034Z", "published_at": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.398615Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15084, "title": "If Erdoğan loses the 2023 presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T11:02:18.219034Z", "open_time": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T13:54:26.006922Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T13:54:26.006922Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Türkiye (previously known as 'Turkey') is scheduled to have its next presidential election on June 18, 2023. However, President Erdoğan suggested that it may be held on May 14, 2023 instead, which has been [confirmed in late January 2023](https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/president-erdogan-confirms-may-14-elections-date-in-t%C3%BCrkiye-64770). Erdoğan has been president of Türkiye since 2014, having previously served as Prime Minister. This election is crucial because Erdoğan is [aiming to extend his 20-year rule in elections that will decide not just who leads Türkiye but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whats-stake-turkeys-upcoming-elections-2023-01-18/)\n\nThis election has been called the “World’s Most Important” by [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-09/will-erdogan-stay-or-go-in-2023-turkey-s-election-is-the-one-to-watch), as there is a risk that Erdoğan will not concede a potential election defeat and stay in power. Just [in 2019](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/istanbul-election-remaking-of-turkeys-new-political-landscape), in Istanbul’s municipal election, “the opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, won a landslide victory over his rival. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has arguably suffered its most severe defeat since coming to power in 2002,” suggesting that the possibility of an electoral defeat is higher than may be expected. This is against the backdrop of [some polls](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/turkeys-centenary-could-mark-the-end-of-the-erdogan-era) showing several opposition candidates having sizable support that may translate into electoral victory.\n\nWith some analysts calling Türkiye a [‘one-man rule’](https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/02/22/turkey-under-erdo-how-country-turned-from-democracy-and-west-pub-86045) through the [erosion of democratic institutions](https://pomed.org/publication/as-nato-convenes-erdogans-authoritarianism-remains-an-awkward-problem/), Erdoğan’s actions in the case of an electoral defeat could be decisive in setting the path for Türkiye going forward.\n\nFurther, the constitutionality of Erdoğan’s third potential term has been challenged: [The opposition declares Erdogan’s candidacy “unconstitutional” while the Turkish president says his path to run for a third term is \"clear.\"](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/can-erdogan-run-third-term-turkeys-upcoming-election)\n\n> The argument swirling around the presidential election, which is due to be held alongside a parliamentary vote on May 14, centers on Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution. The eight-paragraph clause states that a presidential term runs for five years and a candidate can be elected for a maximum of two terms.\n\n> The constitution, therefore, appears to rule out an Erdogan candidacy.\n\n> His supporters back the legality of his candidacy by arguing that constitutional changes introduced in a 2017 referendum, which came into force in the following year’s election, mean Erdogan’s first, post-2014 term does not count.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is not president on December 31, 2023. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is still president on December 31, 2023. \n\nThe antecedent (determining the outcomes of the election) will be resolved based on the relevant [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/) of this election, which uses [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of the election as the resolution criterion. \n\nThe consequent (determining whether Erdoğan is still president) will be resolved based on who will be listed on the [official website of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye](https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/) on December 31, 2023 at 00:00, GMT+3. \n\nIf Erdoğan wins the 2023 presidential election, or if the relevant Metaculus question about the election resolves ambiguously, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685378022.091538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685378022.091538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7181805275230181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6558395405859315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005844760675731369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04465034438090857, 0.0, 0.0, 5.48582156804221e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.625358952009665e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3050325957355424, 0.0005623901265472414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5262563034192477, 0.030838065232491742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5428492160228193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1499290484336402, 1.1192548507190692, 0.03505053904480797, 0.8355950751261234, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9930933295379423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18218933527310993, 0.8044844537480814, 0.04150657392327546, 0.003189961008597852, 0.0, 0.43488775533237434, 0.3579591046479703, 0.05409822688037131, 0.09499466280863372, 0.6069908962044571, 1.3520432431865892, 1.1172731194666674, 0.019367260417392767, 0.2280528643970415, 0.0, 0.06813318232676653, 2.140337359331178, 0.45627223026164093, 0.01935388177610526, 1.1801161311457835, 0.8587493889903177, 1.097289600428269, 0.050855809812215796, 0.0, 0.10221260723848555, 0.0021854082042224564, 0.45810909831104135, 0.9208402575561426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15752024677414223, 0.762981869412028, 0.0, 0.0, 1.136791111378235 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685432784.358531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685432784.358531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26076483790655447, 0.7392351620934455 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Türkiye (previously known as 'Turkey') is scheduled to have its next presidential election on June 18, 2023. However, President Erdoğan suggested that it may be held on May 14, 2023 instead, which has been [confirmed in late January 2023](https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/president-erdogan-confirms-may-14-elections-date-in-t%C3%BCrkiye-64770). Erdoğan has been president of Türkiye since 2014, having previously served as Prime Minister. This election is crucial because Erdoğan is [aiming to extend his 20-year rule in elections that will decide not just who leads Türkiye but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whats-stake-turkeys-upcoming-elections-2023-01-18/)\n\nThis election has been called the “World’s Most Important” by [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-09/will-erdogan-stay-or-go-in-2023-turkey-s-election-is-the-one-to-watch), as there is a risk that Erdoğan will not concede a potential election defeat and stay in power. Just [in 2019](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/istanbul-election-remaking-of-turkeys-new-political-landscape), in Istanbul’s municipal election, “the opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, won a landslide victory over his rival. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has arguably suffered its most severe defeat since coming to power in 2002,” suggesting that the possibility of an electoral defeat is higher than may be expected. This is against the backdrop of [some polls](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/turkeys-centenary-could-mark-the-end-of-the-erdogan-era) showing several opposition candidates having sizable support that may translate into electoral victory.\n\nWith some analysts calling Türkiye a [‘one-man rule’](https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/02/22/turkey-under-erdo-how-country-turned-from-democracy-and-west-pub-86045) through the [erosion of democratic institutions](https://pomed.org/publication/as-nato-convenes-erdogans-authoritarianism-remains-an-awkward-problem/), Erdoğan’s actions in the case of an electoral defeat could be decisive in setting the path for Türkiye going forward.\n\nFurther, the constitutionality of Erdoğan’s third potential term has been challenged: [The opposition declares Erdogan’s candidacy “unconstitutional” while the Turkish president says his path to run for a third term is \"clear.\"](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/can-erdogan-run-third-term-turkeys-upcoming-election)\n\n> The argument swirling around the presidential election, which is due to be held alongside a parliamentary vote on May 14, centers on Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution. The eight-paragraph clause states that a presidential term runs for five years and a candidate can be elected for a maximum of two terms.\n\n> The constitution, therefore, appears to rule out an Erdogan candidacy.\n\n> His supporters back the legality of his candidacy by arguing that constitutional changes introduced in a 2017 referendum, which came into force in the following year’s election, mean Erdogan’s first, post-2014 term does not count." }, { "id": 15077, "title": "Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?", "short_title": "10k Deaths Due to H5N1 Before 2024", "url_title": "10k Deaths Due to H5N1 Before 2024", "slug": "10k-deaths-due-to-h5n1-before-2024", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T00:33:22.980380Z", "published_at": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.532780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15077, "title": "Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T00:33:22.980380Z", "open_time": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-09T01:18:49.284107Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-09T01:18:49.284107Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the World Health Organization, the case fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza to date is [56%](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjYuqnc8YH9AhU4k4kEHU4PCvEQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fwpro---documents%2Femergency%2Fsurveillance%2Favian-influenza%2Fai_20230106.pdf%3Fsfvrsn%3D5f006f99_108&usg=AOvVaw01YRFxzpAxbIC-2jQNbfLv). However, this is likely a [substantial overestimate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/) of the true mortality rate. Almost all of the 457 confirmed deaths occurred between 2003 and 2014.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, there have been at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1. This will resolve on the basis of figures compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO). \n\nIf WHO figures are not up-to-date as of January 1, 2024, then this question will resolve on the basis of other credible reporting on the number of confirmed deaths due to H5N1.", "fine_print": "The 10,000 confirmed deaths would all have to occur in 2023 — it would exclude deaths before 2023.", "post_id": 15077, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965644.935269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965644.935269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01275047236274986 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.913041420533583, 3.8186110066411834, 0.2676612221347445, 0.29999787840087266, 0.1634943225131542, 0.9082922000714213, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.017820921846768534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012792465124422179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37213983151560504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01138843172275674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9693158874985468, "coverage": 0.9997325198798771, "baseline_score": 97.004865514265, "spot_peer_score": 1.6012695112294804, "peer_archived_score": 1.9693158874985468, "baseline_archived_score": 97.004865514265, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6012695112294804 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008384.981327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008384.981327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 244, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the World Health Organization, the case fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza to date is [56%](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjYuqnc8YH9AhU4k4kEHU4PCvEQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fwpro---documents%2Femergency%2Fsurveillance%2Favian-influenza%2Fai_20230106.pdf%3Fsfvrsn%3D5f006f99_108&usg=AOvVaw01YRFxzpAxbIC-2jQNbfLv). However, this is likely a [substantial overestimate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/) of the true mortality rate. Almost all of the 457 confirmed deaths occurred between 2003 and 2014." }, { "id": 15076, "title": "Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine using Chemical Weapons Confirmed", "url_title": "Ukraine using Chemical Weapons Confirmed", "slug": "ukraine-using-chemical-weapons-confirmed", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-06T19:51:45.439047Z", "published_at": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.264993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15076, "title": "Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-06T19:51:45.439047Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-10T15:08:35.959759Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-10T15:08:35.959759Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although [videos](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/dpr-chief-warns-ukrainian-forces-use-drone-dropped-chemical) supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, *any* of the following groups state that Ukrainian forces used chemical weapons against Russian troops:\n\n- The US Federal government\n- The Ukrainian government\n- The EU\n- NATO\n- The UN\n- The Institute for the Study of War\n\nAlternatively, Metaculus may use its discretion to determine if reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) confirm Ukrainian use of chemical weapons. \n\nIf this does not occur by the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15076, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076120.281169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076120.281169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008874328036324739 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.087853547717993, 4.208640058792491, 0.40194557542495973, 0.5648105818508302, 0.0, 0.12226327335101232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.596999304353183, "coverage": 0.997756645329528, "baseline_score": 98.21275070888275, "spot_peer_score": 23.55802212268193, "peer_archived_score": 4.596999304353183, "baseline_archived_score": 98.21275070888275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.55802212268193 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038282.36182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038282.36182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although [videos](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/dpr-chief-warns-ukrainian-forces-use-drone-dropped-chemical) supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops." }, { "id": 15075, "title": "Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?", "short_title": "2023 Mink Farm Culling Due To Bird Flu", "url_title": "2023 Mink Farm Culling Due To Bird Flu", "slug": "2023-mink-farm-culling-due-to-bird-flu", "author_id": 120444, "author_username": "bskubi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T17:55:49.317915Z", "published_at": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.035201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15075, "title": "Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T17:55:49.317915Z", "open_time": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-07T23:09:00.090348Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-07T23:09:00.090348Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus*\n\n- [Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/)\n- [Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15026/h5n1-human-to-human-transmission/)\n\n____\n\nThe current bird flu outbreak has [spilled over](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64474594) into a variety of mammalian species. In October 2022, an [H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears) appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.\n\nThis [raised concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are [highly fatal](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports at least one additional mink farm culling after February 5, 2023 and before January 1st, 2024, due to an outbreak of bird flu among the minks. The question will resolve as **Yes** for any culling related to suspected bird flu, of any of the [avian influenza subtypes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza#:~:text=There%20are%20many%20subtypes%20of,H7N7%2C%20H7N9%2C%20and%20H9N2.), including but not limited to H5N1. Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available before April 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15075, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693570463.208424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693570463.208424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4487403548482792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.3379475799745117, 0.3872215097627376, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8921938787628534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 1.154335466397594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2222379558607751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2933719137479858 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.494700682823182, "coverage": 0.5350438253670039, "baseline_score": -14.635465800993748, "spot_peer_score": -29.142959177333008, "peer_archived_score": 4.494700682823182, "baseline_archived_score": -14.635465800993748, "spot_peer_archived_score": -29.142959177333008 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690790090.33917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690790090.33917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7849286367245645, 0.21507136327543555 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus*\n\n- [Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/)\n- [Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15026/h5n1-human-to-human-transmission/)\n\n____\n\nThe current bird flu outbreak has [spilled over](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64474594) into a variety of mammalian species. In October 2022, an [H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears) appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.\n\nThis [raised concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are [highly fatal](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds." }, { "id": 15072, "title": "Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?", "short_title": "EU Climate Export Credit Expansion by 2025", "url_title": "EU Climate Export Credit Expansion by 2025", "slug": "eu-climate-export-credit-expansion-by-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T15:14:34.674330Z", "published_at": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.271230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15072, "title": "Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T15:14:34.674330Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-19T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-19T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T17:22:18.257907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States). The goal of the CCSU was to focus on providing the “adequate financial terms and conditions to projects in selected sectors identified as significantly contributing to climate change mitigation, including renewable energy, [GHG] emissions’ reduction and high energy efficiency projects, climate change adaptation, as well as water projects’, according to the [explanatory memorandum](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455). This was last updated in 2014. \n\nIn 2022, the European Commission published a [Proposal for a Council Decision](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455), aiming to expand the scope of the CCSU on export credits for climate-related technologies, projects, and products. \n\n> The CCSU has the general objective to offer more advantageous financing terms and conditions for climate-friendly projects in third countries than are stipulated in the horizontal rules of the Arrangement, and so incentivise exports of climate-friendly technologies. However, the CCSU was last updated in 2014, and today the coverage of exports that can benefit from […] its rules is too narrow compared to the climate change goals it pursues. In particular, the scope of the CCSU focuses on the sectors of energy generation and transmission. The limited impact resulting from the narrow coverage does not effectively support the Participants’ commitments assumed under the Paris Agreement and the EU ambitions as expressed in its Green Deal agenda. In this context, the Participants have agreed to broaden the scope of the CCSU and have agreed on a number of sectors that should be included in the CCSU, namely:\n\n> Storage of electricity, including the manufacture and recycling of batteries.\n\n> Zero emissions transport, including enabling infrastructure.\n\n> Production of clean hydrogen, transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen.\n\n> Transmission and distribution of low carbon electricity.\n\n> Low carbon manufacturing.\n\n\nThe EU’s [2030 Climate Target Plan](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/2030-climate-target-plan_en) has been described as ambitious, and its willingness to finance novel climate technologies such as battery manufacturing and hydrogen storage may make the proposed change more likely as it could contribute to achieving these goals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the proposal has been adopted by the Council of the European Union before January 1, 2025. This will resolve as **Yes** if the status of ‘2022/0276/NLE is changed to 'Adoption’ based on the [EUR-Lex tracker]( https://eur-lex.europa.eu/procedure/EN/2022_276?qid=1675607263408&rid=3) \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734077555.719139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734077555.719139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.25937501749932207 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6390484072978414, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2454644288051597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6094357670990451, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.62528408078437, "peer_score": 3.017630847312339, "coverage": 0.21937108834540342, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999994553409045, "spot_peer_score": 27.616154452759467, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 10.62528408078437, "peer_archived_score": 3.017630847312339, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.616154452759467, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287979.254693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287979.254693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8418831255221298, 0.15811687447787015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States). The goal of the CCSU was to focus on providing the “adequate financial terms and conditions to projects in selected sectors identified as significantly contributing to climate change mitigation, including renewable energy, [GHG] emissions’ reduction and high energy efficiency projects, climate change adaptation, as well as water projects’, according to the [explanatory memorandum](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455). This was last updated in 2014. \n\nIn 2022, the European Commission published a [Proposal for a Council Decision](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455), aiming to expand the scope of the CCSU on export credits for climate-related technologies, projects, and products. \n\n> The CCSU has the general objective to offer more advantageous financing terms and conditions for climate-friendly projects in third countries than are stipulated in the horizontal rules of the Arrangement, and so incentivise exports of climate-friendly technologies. However, the CCSU was last updated in 2014, and today the coverage of exports that can benefit from […] its rules is too narrow compared to the climate change goals it pursues. In particular, the scope of the CCSU focuses on the sectors of energy generation and transmission. The limited impact resulting from the narrow coverage does not effectively support the Participants’ commitments assumed under the Paris Agreement and the EU ambitions as expressed in its Green Deal agenda. In this context, the Participants have agreed to broaden the scope of the CCSU and have agreed on a number of sectors that should be included in the CCSU, namely:\n\n> Storage of electricity, including the manufacture and recycling of batteries.\n\n> Zero emissions transport, including enabling infrastructure.\n\n> Production of clean hydrogen, transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen.\n\n> Transmission and distribution of low carbon electricity.\n\n> Low carbon manufacturing.\n\n\nThe EU’s [2030 Climate Target Plan](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/2030-climate-target-plan_en) has been described as ambitious, and its willingness to finance novel climate technologies such as battery manufacturing and hydrogen storage may make the proposed change more likely as it could contribute to achieving these goals." }, { "id": 15069, "title": "Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?", "short_title": "India's Climate Risk Increases by 2027", "url_title": "India's Climate Risk Increases by 2027", "slug": "indias-climate-risk-increases-by-2027", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T14:08:20.636482Z", "published_at": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T15:13:31.126919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15069, "title": "Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T14:08:20.636482Z", "open_time": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are [extreme climate event hotspots](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions). Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought, cyclones, and cold waves. “[Extreme weather events resulting from climate change led to 495,000 human deaths across the world in 1999–2018](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions)”, while the total economic damage is estimated at USD 3.54 trillion (PPP) during the same 19 years. Several [reports and metrics](https://www.g20climaterisks.org/india/#:~:text=The%20science%20shows%20that%20India,25%20times%20higher%20than%201990.) have highlighted the specific risks of this for India. However, these risks are well understood in India and public policy is working towards addressing them. This makes the next few years crucial in an effort to reduce climate-driven risks for the country.\n\nThe [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/) reported in late 2022 about India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development:\n\n> At COP27, India submitted its Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) which provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector, but these do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2. The CAT evaluates India's LTS as \"Poor\".\n\n> In August 2022, India officially submitted its updated NDC targets, having first announced new targets at COP26 in November 2021. It strengthened both the value of its 2030 emissions intensity target and the share of electricity that will come from non-fossil fuel-based sources, compared to its first NDC.\n\n> In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5°C pathway.\n\nOne way to quantitatively estimate the climate risk of a country is the [INFORM Risk Index](https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/fi-indicators#fr2) by the IMF. The INFORM Risk Index is a tool to assess climate-driven risks. It considers three factors: climate-related hazards & exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. This allows for an integrated risk assessment that takes into consideration both general climate risks but also a country’s coping capacity that may alleviate these risks. Over the past three years, India’s risk index has [declined slightly to 5.3](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore), putting it en par with Malawi and Nigeria. \n\nYear | INFORM Risk\n----- | -----\n2020 | 5.4\n2021 | 5.3\n2022 | 5.3", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if India’s INFORM Risk score is 5.9 or higher for the year 2027 (a more than 10% increase from 2022 levels). The data will be drawn from the IMF Climate-driven INFORM risk [dashboard](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore). \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if India’s INFORM Risk score is 5.8 or lower for the year 2027. The data will be drawn from the IMF Climate-driven INFORM risk dashboard.\n\nIf this data series is discontinued, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761923600.877216, "end_time": 1764592206.474778, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3238363266 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761923600.877216, "end_time": 1764592206.474778, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3238363266 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6761636734, 0.3238363266 ], "means": [ 0.3280464682569033 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288577.416504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288577.416504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7338537605854698, 0.26614623941453025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are [extreme climate event hotspots](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions). Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought, cyclones, and cold waves. “[Extreme weather events resulting from climate change led to 495,000 human deaths across the world in 1999–2018](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions)”, while the total economic damage is estimated at USD 3.54 trillion (PPP) during the same 19 years. Several [reports and metrics](https://www.g20climaterisks.org/india/#:~:text=The%20science%20shows%20that%20India,25%20times%20higher%20than%201990.) have highlighted the specific risks of this for India. However, these risks are well understood in India and public policy is working towards addressing them. This makes the next few years crucial in an effort to reduce climate-driven risks for the country.\n\nThe [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/) reported in late 2022 about India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development:\n\n> At COP27, India submitted its Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) which provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector, but these do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2. The CAT evaluates India's LTS as \"Poor\".\n\n> In August 2022, India officially submitted its updated NDC targets, having first announced new targets at COP26 in November 2021. It strengthened both the value of its 2030 emissions intensity target and the share of electricity that will come from non-fossil fuel-based sources, compared to its first NDC.\n\n> In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5°C pathway.\n\nOne way to quantitatively estimate the climate risk of a country is the [INFORM Risk Index](https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/fi-indicators#fr2) by the IMF. The INFORM Risk Index is a tool to assess climate-driven risks. It considers three factors: climate-related hazards & exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. This allows for an integrated risk assessment that takes into consideration both general climate risks but also a country’s coping capacity that may alleviate these risks. Over the past three years, India’s risk index has [declined slightly to 5.3](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore), putting it en par with Malawi and Nigeria. \n\nYear | INFORM Risk\n----- | -----\n2020 | 5.4\n2021 | 5.3\n2022 | 5.3" }, { "id": 15026, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?", "short_title": "H5N1 human-to-human transmission", "url_title": "H5N1 human-to-human transmission", "slug": "h5n1-human-to-human-transmission", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-04T00:13:54.496971Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.584058Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15026, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-04T00:13:54.496971Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T16:18:16.511022Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T16:18:16.511022Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. \n\nA January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\n A \"level 5\" risk level by UKHSA would indicate \"indicate [\"Any human-to-human transmission.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of before January 1, 2024 UK HSA assigns a \"level 5\" risk to H5N1 to indicate human-to-human transmission", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056204.776399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056204.776399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.032948358788097314 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.542268812941211, 4.861185200421174, 0.0, 0.24399651039726383, 0.5258068491791832, 0.34354283102650235, 0.13947194976535426, 0.0, 0.1600871304430692, 0.4146758411259209, 0.27216951473296785, 0.4662076522093029, 0.08158519982968242, 0.2747420202174948, 0.029437746863261626, 0.24907156417597523, 0.036705271864895465, 0.2568542678166153, 0.0, 0.0052739218686467665, 0.18253707354958468, 0.0, 0.06984831420205134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05857020126457533, 0.010594891982676208, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0004090313772021209, 0.0, 0.2061680031258101, 0.0, 0.1769118926697472, 0.0, 0.0076927038422426675, 0.0035880521054971015, 0.0, 0.07206795304728328, 0.0075547168217016515, 0.0026327402556635855, 0.026133068960151842, 0.0008926692498609794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023635982998960903, 0.0021164611419844112, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0213262658041598, 6.571746667824727e-05, 0.0032432922868876357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028128624743290406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.164150308595673, "coverage": 0.9997883359003624, "baseline_score": 74.87934507953109, "spot_peer_score": -1.9740953092353148, "peer_archived_score": 20.164150308595673, "baseline_archived_score": 74.87934507953109, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9740953092353148 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056204.807368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056204.807368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 477, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. \n\nA January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\n A \"level 5\" risk level by UKHSA would indicate \"indicate [\"Any human-to-human transmission.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1)." }, { "id": 15025, "title": "Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?", "short_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On H5N1", "url_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On H5N1", "slug": "who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T23:58:06.317314Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.949414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15025, "title": "Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T23:58:06.317314Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T15:01:57.514986Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T15:01:57.514986Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made seven PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the July 23, 2022 [PHEIC declaration of mpox](https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/23-07-2022-who-director-general-declares-the-ongoing-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-event-of-international-concern).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether, before 1 January, 2024, WHO declares that the spread of H5N1 constitutes a PHEIC.\n\nAlso see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14278/new-who-global-health-emergency-in-2023/) on whether WHO will declare a PHEIC of any kind in 202", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15025, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979987.835043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979987.835043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.017662290907444304 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.823353920059425, 5.078681883793753, 0.24542481633370936, 0.11553701206081882, 0.16261882574173186, 0.6664354060757708, 0.10396878755059086, 0.15456280409090137, 0.01418688470541952, 0.04730520388316206, 0.0658624519359121, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.3567111951873559, 0.16202240651916378, 0.029809355870528888, 0.012312665985566155, 0.06822691827659266, 0.0, 0.02115124641300948, 0.1731168032924276, 0.18389761120783424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01085885475966403, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.00734207452482872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.135803059110207, "coverage": 0.9996507140239964, "baseline_score": 92.04699946804963, "spot_peer_score": 1.761455323969108, "peer_archived_score": 6.135803059110207, "baseline_archived_score": 92.04699946804963, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.761455323969108 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008721.830965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008721.830965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 379, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made seven PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the July 23, 2022 [PHEIC declaration of mpox](https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/23-07-2022-who-director-general-declares-the-ongoing-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-event-of-international-concern)." }, { "id": 15023, "title": "Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?", "short_title": "Chinese Balloon", "url_title": "Chinese Balloon", "slug": "chinese-balloon", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T22:51:12.740278Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.661869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15023, "title": "Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T22:51:12.740278Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T09:10:00.476706Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T09:10:00.476706Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Friday, February 3rd, a [huge, high-altitude Chinese balloon sailed across the US](https://apnews.com/article/politics-antony-blinken-china-314302278a5f05bdc2df146ed5b35ec6). \n\nUS officials alleged the balloon was a spy balloon, with a senior US defense official saying the [military readied F-22 fighters to destroy it](https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/). Ultimately, the Pentagon advised President Biden [not to shoot the balloon down](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html). \n\nChina acknowledged ownership of the balloon, but said it was [a civilian device \"used for scientific research such as meteorology](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-montana-flight-tracking/).\"\n\nIn response, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [postponed a scheduled trip to Beijing](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3843240-why-the-discovery-of-a-chinese-balloon-in-us-skies-is-such-a-big-deal/). Many Republican leaders [called for the US government to shoot the balloon down](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3842482-gop-lashes-out-at-biden-pentagon-as-chinese-balloon-hovers-over-us/). United Nations officials called on the US and China [\"to do whatever they can to lower tensions.\"](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/h_5c2f8151342068431cbbbba39e903f0c)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Chinese balloon has been shot down, destroyed, or otherwise grounded (including hitting the surface of a body of water) before 11:59 pm EST on February 10th, 2023 according to credible media reports or official government statements publicly available at or before 2pm EST on February 12th, 2023.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* **Yes** resolution requires only affirmative reporting that the balloon is no longer flying. It can be downed by either natural or artificial means.\n\n* If the balloon is grounded and then starts flying again, the question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 15023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675543965.818163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675543965.818163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9170948138159432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1475226729454986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28626757265783176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.05190235437913919, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4724030184404935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 7.271782851554532 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6580765379069172, "coverage": 0.10643144029503065, "baseline_score": -2.65088116783231, "spot_peer_score": -2.7520183660636066, "peer_archived_score": 0.6580765379069172, "baseline_archived_score": -2.65088116783231, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.7520183660636066 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675540890.114636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675540890.114636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4032102452590358, 0.5967897547409642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Friday, February 3rd, a [huge, high-altitude Chinese balloon sailed across the US](https://apnews.com/article/politics-antony-blinken-china-314302278a5f05bdc2df146ed5b35ec6). \n\nUS officials alleged the balloon was a spy balloon, with a senior US defense official saying the [military readied F-22 fighters to destroy it](https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/). Ultimately, the Pentagon advised President Biden [not to shoot the balloon down](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html). \n\nChina acknowledged ownership of the balloon, but said it was [a civilian device \"used for scientific research such as meteorology](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-montana-flight-tracking/).\"\n\nIn response, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [postponed a scheduled trip to Beijing](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3843240-why-the-discovery-of-a-chinese-balloon-in-us-skies-is-such-a-big-deal/). Many Republican leaders [called for the US government to shoot the balloon down](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3842482-gop-lashes-out-at-biden-pentagon-as-chinese-balloon-hovers-over-us/). United Nations officials called on the US and China [\"to do whatever they can to lower tensions.\"](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/h_5c2f8151342068431cbbbba39e903f0c)" }, { "id": 15015, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "short_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "url_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "slug": "h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T17:06:00.841555Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.546969Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15015, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T17:06:00.841555Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-03T22:04:13.573788Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-03T22:04:13.573788Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 for ALOS-3.\n\nA January 26th [press release](https://www.jaxa.jp/press/2023/01/20230126-1_j.html) moved the launch date to February 13, 2023 between 10:37:55 and 10:44:15am (JST).\n\nALOS-3 will [launch](https://fanfun.jaxa.jp/countdown/h3-alos3/countdown_project.html) aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive if the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 successfully launches before or within 12 hours of its announced launch window and successfully delivers ALOS-3 to begin its mission.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "- Admins will use [this source](https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/h3-22-alos-3-maiden-flight/) to determine if the launch was a \"Success\". \n- If the Launch Status does not equal \"Success\" *or* the launch is delayed by more than 12 hours, this question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 15015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676033731.037655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676033731.037655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.08985117437874138 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3894645223483608, 3.003218395915845, 0.7535956555594016, 2.7498826372369294, 0.027172461172235558, 1.650708332981106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.5261627062792135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6859677313757875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012363935325084376, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0, 0.5805717644653722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1049492512132725, 0.4768664955511676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10909927757134413, 0.0, 0.02358838295555427, 0.031134300295554664, 0.0, 0.01744285986675472, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08934312118698887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.681398741539738, "coverage": 0.9996290113279029, "baseline_score": 16.416207336672834, "spot_peer_score": 32.51051438370536, "peer_archived_score": 19.681398741539738, "baseline_archived_score": 16.416207336672834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.51051438370536 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676033731.058357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676033731.058357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9861087457221831, 0.013891254277816865 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 for ALOS-3.\n\nA January 26th [press release](https://www.jaxa.jp/press/2023/01/20230126-1_j.html) moved the launch date to February 13, 2023 between 10:37:55 and 10:44:15am (JST).\n\nALOS-3 will [launch](https://fanfun.jaxa.jp/countdown/h3-alos3/countdown_project.html) aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html)." }, { "id": 15014, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?", "short_title": "US House Speaker McCarthy 2023 Taiwan Visit", "url_title": "US House Speaker McCarthy 2023 Taiwan Visit", "slug": "us-house-speaker-mccarthy-2023-taiwan-visit", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:38:24.634051Z", "published_at": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.724554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15014, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:38:24.634051Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-11T09:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-11T09:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. [A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11975/pelosi-visits-taiwan-in-2022/) attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.\n\nOn January 23, 2023, [reports surfaced](https://punchbowl.news/archive/12323-punchbowl-news-am/) that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry [issued a statement opposing such a visit](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3836382-china-urges-mccarthy-not-to-visit-taiwan/).\n\nOn February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-visit-taiwan-speaker-stresses-importance-defending-island-china-2023-02-01/)) You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kevin McCarthy is in Taiwan at any time in 2023 (up until midnight GMT+8, December 31, 2023) according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting the visit or official press release from the Speaker's office. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703880029.860268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703880029.860268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011681932010491662 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.630467050598668, 3.9157046533439073, 0.2099764973617878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043063380822978115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02273102448084273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0098042150506422, 0.0, 0.025385760387874073, 0.07265466937739974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20572941495370636, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03528413545320671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03296546321979451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.235613135405522, "coverage": 0.9997050346516436, "baseline_score": 48.67731003319409, "spot_peer_score": -11.210480887052437, "peer_archived_score": 19.235613135405522, "baseline_archived_score": 48.67731003319409, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.210480887052437 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703922071.931041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703922071.931041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. [A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11975/pelosi-visits-taiwan-in-2022/) attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.\n\nOn January 23, 2023, [reports surfaced](https://punchbowl.news/archive/12323-punchbowl-news-am/) that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry [issued a statement opposing such a visit](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3836382-china-urges-mccarthy-not-to-visit-taiwan/).\n\nOn February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-visit-taiwan-speaker-stresses-importance-defending-island-china-2023-02-01/)) You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's." }, { "id": 15010, "title": "Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?", "short_title": "500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?", "url_title": "500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?", "slug": "500k-h5nx-influenza-cases-before-2025", "author_id": 119026, "author_username": "NomNomNom", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T04:07:31.476411Z", "published_at": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.686681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T14:34:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15010, "title": "Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T04:07:31.476411Z", "open_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-13T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T14:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-25T14:36:20.208397Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).\n\nIn October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).\n\nThere is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).\n\nThis raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.\n\nRecent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are over 500,000 credible reported cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b influenza in humans globally dated before January 1, 2025.\n\nResolution will be based on credible daily case trackers (as the OurWorldInData case tracker was for Covid-19 in 2021-2022). Because there are currently no established daily case trackers for HPAI, and a large outbreak would alter the availability of case tracking data, the specific case tracker is left to admin choice upon identification of a large outbreak.", "fine_print": "Estimates of total infection count are not acceptable- this question is about confirmed cases.\n\nThe resolution does not depend on the H or N subtype of the virus (although it appears H subtype shifts are uncommon). For the purposes of this question, any virus of the 2.3.4.4b clade (or descendants thereof) will be considered 2.3.4.4b. For the purposes of this question, a crossover strain with at least one mutation inherited directly from 2.3.4.4b will be counted as 2.3.4.4b. Cases which do not descend from this clade will not be counted. In the event of disagreement over the provenance of a strain, the apparent beliefs of the majority of mainstream virologists should be deferred to.\n\nCases before January 2023 will not count towards this total. Cases from January 1 2023 to December 31 2024 will be counted.\n\nIn the event of a large outbreak, almost all human cases of 2.3.4.4b will likely be from a specific initial strain which will receive specific formal and informal names. A small number of independent infections from other 2.3.4.4b strains will likely occur. These infections from other strains will also be counted. If more than one strain of 2.3.4.4b causes large outbreaks, all of these large-outbreak strains will be counted.\n\nDaily case trackers with daily updates based on public data should be preferred. Trackers which clearly include substantial fractions of non-2.3.4.4b cases or which exclude large numbers of highly credible 2.3.4.4b cases should not be preferred. In the event no reasonable example can be found, admins will choose the most accurate and up-to-date data source available.", "post_id": 15010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735727863.315441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735727863.315441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003706137700685962 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.060996464287886, 1.033352276674555, 0.09414497439711617, 0.25068596207225224, 0.013613413480582582, 0.03658139362322718, 0.06965404274308387, 0.09159379193049776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005235060727262043, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.2414025843621, "peer_score": 12.260987195769363, "coverage": 0.9997271538151059, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997271538151059, "spot_peer_score": 12.448814180509393, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 91.2414025843621, "peer_archived_score": 12.260987195769363, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.448814180509393, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289344.404344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289344.404344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 265, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).\n\nIn October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).\n\nThere is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).\n\nThis raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.\n\nRecent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu)." }, { "id": 15009, "title": "Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "5th-generation fighter jets to Ukraine?", "url_title": "5th-generation fighter jets to Ukraine?", "slug": "5th-generation-fighter-jets-to-ukraine", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T01:28:19.975211Z", "published_at": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.431411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15009, "title": "Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T01:28:19.975211Z", "open_time": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-14T00:29:37.302097Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-14T00:29:37.302097Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made requests for other fighter jets such as [F-22s and F-35s](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/08/f-22-f-35-gripen-and-eurofighter-ukraine-air-force-openly-requests-for-western-fighters/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that any country has announced a commitment of at least one F-22 or F-35 fighter jet to Ukraine", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074260.810607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074260.810607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009491627214648026 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.714612046156235, 3.100934588112693, 0.06857770342997067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04801409210239034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.379832594240651, "coverage": 0.9999955301667298, "baseline_score": 99.05042935093928, "spot_peer_score": 5.468450662060536, "peer_archived_score": 1.379832594240651, "baseline_archived_score": 99.05042935093928, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.468450662060536 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074260.834088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074260.834088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made requests for other fighter jets such as [F-22s and F-35s](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/08/f-22-f-35-gripen-and-eurofighter-ukraine-air-force-openly-requests-for-western-fighters/)." }, { "id": 15005, "title": "In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?", "short_title": "FIFA Club World Cup Winner", "url_title": "FIFA Club World Cup Winner", "slug": "fifa-club-world-cup-winner", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-02T18:09:23.269019Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.658467Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-11T21:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [FIFA Club World Cup](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/clubworldcup) is an [international men's association football competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) that brings together the winning teams from each continent's confederation, along with the host nation's league champions.\n\nThe [2022 FIFA Club World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) is being played in Morocco from the 1st to the 11th of February, 2023.\n\nThe teams competing this year are:\n\n| Country | Team | Confederation |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Brazil | Flamengo | CONMEBOL |\n| Spain | Real Madrid | UEFA |\n| Saudi Arabia | Al-Hilal | AFC |\n| Morocco | Wydad Casablanca | CAF |\n| United States | Seattle Sounders FC | CONCACAF |\n| New Zealand | Auckland City | OFC |\n| Egypt | Al Ahly | CAF |\n\nThe winner will be named on Saturday, February 11th.\n\nThe [last nine teams to win the cup have all been from Europe](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2023/2/1/fifa-club-world-cup-morocco-2022-all-you-need-to-know). No team from a continent other than Europe or South America has ever won the Club World Cup.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as \"Yes\" if a team other than Real Madrid, the European representative, wins the 2022 FIFA Club World Cup.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Real Madrid wins the FIFA Club World Cup, or if for any reason FIFA does not name a winner of the tournament.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676137372.042443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676137372.042443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14785381450456225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2628820412078404, 0.022188915831439535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10772571783139248, 1.1814687883336514, 0.18616056073700932, 0.10608798223857863, 0.11939780529750135, 0.4709786488164604, 4.991684396156452, 0.025194092214829794, 0.8092412224943555, 0.2194278625504006, 0.1711754945605547, 0.006017849633017483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170020928281433, 0.9696425811169741, 0.1719488443903274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2851069917398736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 1.0078071240442348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010901356066657217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.3336973790942173, "coverage": 0.9964276912027065, "baseline_score": 66.23214945935486, "spot_peer_score": 2.5727467242087174, "peer_archived_score": 1.3336973790942173, "baseline_archived_score": 66.23214945935486, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5727467242087174 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676137372.061598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676137372.061598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9440099605746219, 0.05599003942537803 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [FIFA Club World Cup](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/clubworldcup) is an [international men's association football competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) that brings together the winning teams from each continent's confederation, along with the host nation's league champions.\n\nThe [2022 FIFA Club World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) is being played in Morocco from the 1st to the 11th of February, 2023.\n\nThe teams competing this year are:\n\n| Country | Team | Confederation |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Brazil | Flamengo | CONMEBOL |\n| Spain | Real Madrid | UEFA |\n| Saudi Arabia | Al-Hilal | AFC |\n| Morocco | Wydad Casablanca | CAF |\n| United States | Seattle Sounders FC | CONCACAF |\n| New Zealand | Auckland City | OFC |\n| Egypt | Al Ahly | CAF |\n\nThe winner will be named on Saturday, February 11th.\n\nThe [last nine teams to win the cup have all been from Europe](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2023/2/1/fifa-club-world-cup-morocco-2022-all-you-need-to-know). No team from a continent other than Europe or South America has ever won the Club World Cup." }, { "id": 15003, "title": "Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by 2024", "url_title": "F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by 2024", "slug": "f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-02T14:21:11.768668Z", "published_at": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.379750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 175, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15003, "title": "Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-02T14:21:11.768668Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-06T17:54:20.263400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-06T17:54:20.263400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.\n\nPrior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to [de-escalate](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rejects-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-but-will-send-field-hospital/a-60523137). However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the [US](https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/02/28/amid-fears-of-russian-air-dominance-us-to-send-anti-aircraft-stingers-to-ukraine/) and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included [Stinger anti-aircraft missiles](https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/stinger-missile) and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a [pivotal role](https://www.businessinsider.com/javelins-stingers-nlaws-help-ukraine-destroy-russian-tanks-aircraft-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war. \n\nIn late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by [Poland](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/) and [artillery](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/). In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the [United States](=https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049472/700-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) which have been described as having been crucial in both [defensive and offensive](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=HIMARS%20rockets%20have%20been%20integral,otherwise%20wouldn't%20have%20happened%E2%80%A6) operations.\n\nAs the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the [United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war). [Germany](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesregierung-kuendigt-lieferung-von-leopard-2-panzern-an-die-ukraine-an-2160236) also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the [United States](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/) committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in [offensive operations]( https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e) such as retaking occupied land.\n\nIn late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have [asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/politics/ukraine-escalates-public-push-f-16-fighter-jets/index.html). So far, the UK and the US have [ruled out](https://news.sky.com/story/president-biden-rules-out-donating-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-12799633) sending F-16 fighter jets, but [France has signalled openness]( https://www.ft.com/content/4678ec97-bdff-4dfa-9507-dd6f6cb3dcc4) stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the [Dutch Foreign Minister](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/885930.html) has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s. \n\nThere are some [reports](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/poland-reportedly-delivered-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-as-spare-parts) that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) shows that at least one NATO country has announced a commitment of at least 1 [F-16](https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-16.html) fighter jet to Ukraine. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no NATO country officially commits to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "For this question, all [types](https://www.cybermodeler.com/aircraft/f-16/viperversions.shtml) of F-16 fighter jets are considered equally and will count for resolution if committed.", "post_id": 15003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694136243.477219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694136243.477219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9720643839266321 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0006213138306661601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1704305526002014e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001531567345510321, 0.009338448323355791, 0.0, 1.4544502932994723e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013844059151015047, 0.0, 0.0, 7.18156553227323e-05, 0.035304591835399315, 0.0, 0.0, 7.625224814091025e-06, 0.00012487251404047457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6332055744286856e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012150367688436741, 0.0, 3.296885806848777e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.832890140396013e-06, 0.00011106908474844831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022511842858739922, 2.844824854835889e-05, 9.655520104656676e-06, 0.0003828110743325421, 0.07748109864393835, 0.03054914407007375, 0.0, 0.06949106891954274, 0.027708675360726284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019074061327771282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24244366120153266, 0.0, 0.03463018220363182, 0.03187138582804264, 0.0, 0.026702262127374213, 0.06178783663520999, 0.0845560836363458, 0.03883649043329928, 0.0007269809911196391, 0.8800089799874357, 0.00029539577145877306, 0.013690176941856756, 0.013480488374482824, 0.17324348311539653, 0.0788735897365437, 0.0011954080969458455, 0.029770954197468755, 0.393998148135018, 0.036336864432393624, 1.1161791236023386, 1.0475881289082922, 1.4235996394463, 1.2506180272348808, 18.818540429291183 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.717191799723814, "coverage": 0.5959604954592045, "baseline_score": 38.75989933025389, "spot_peer_score": -17.117182384698324, "peer_archived_score": 13.717191799723814, "baseline_archived_score": 38.75989933025389, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.117182384698324 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692480046.148141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692480046.148141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13489544594943814, 0.8651045540505619 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 520, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.\n\nPrior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to [de-escalate](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rejects-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-but-will-send-field-hospital/a-60523137). However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the [US](https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/02/28/amid-fears-of-russian-air-dominance-us-to-send-anti-aircraft-stingers-to-ukraine/) and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included [Stinger anti-aircraft missiles](https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/stinger-missile) and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a [pivotal role](https://www.businessinsider.com/javelins-stingers-nlaws-help-ukraine-destroy-russian-tanks-aircraft-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war. \n\nIn late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by [Poland](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/) and [artillery](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/). In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the [United States](=https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049472/700-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) which have been described as having been crucial in both [defensive and offensive](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=HIMARS%20rockets%20have%20been%20integral,otherwise%20wouldn't%20have%20happened%E2%80%A6) operations.\n\nAs the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the [United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war). [Germany](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesregierung-kuendigt-lieferung-von-leopard-2-panzern-an-die-ukraine-an-2160236) also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the [United States](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/) committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in [offensive operations]( https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e) such as retaking occupied land.\n\nIn late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have [asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/politics/ukraine-escalates-public-push-f-16-fighter-jets/index.html). So far, the UK and the US have [ruled out](https://news.sky.com/story/president-biden-rules-out-donating-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-12799633) sending F-16 fighter jets, but [France has signalled openness]( https://www.ft.com/content/4678ec97-bdff-4dfa-9507-dd6f6cb3dcc4) stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the [Dutch Foreign Minister](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/885930.html) has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s. \n\nThere are some [reports](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/poland-reportedly-delivered-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-as-spare-parts) that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered." }, { "id": 14962, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1,000 deaths from Egypt/Ethiopia Conflict", "url_title": "1,000 deaths from Egypt/Ethiopia Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-egyptethiopia-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-01T14:29:07.977422Z", "published_at": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-04T23:33:07.833073Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14962, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-02-01T14:29:07.977422Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T12:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T12:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[War between Egypt and Ethiopia is a growing fear.](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/) If water rights over the Nile are not settled peacefully, it is feared Egypt could attack Ethiopia. Specifically, it is commonly speculated that Egypt [could bomb](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/23/itll-cause-a-water-war-divisions-run-deep-as-filling-of-nile-dam-nears) the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and spark a conflict. \n\nThe Nile River is [very important](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6VaNG8_nE) for both nations. If access to the river is reduced by Ethiopia, Egypt potentially faces severe water shortages in a country with well over 100 million people. [Many experts](https://news.usc.edu/188414/nile-river-water-dispute-filling-dam-egypt-ethiopia-usc-study/) attest to the potential danger the Dam poses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Egypt and Ethiopia (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Egypt and the government of Ethiopia). \n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Egypt and the government of Ethiopia. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Egypt or Ethiopia cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 14962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759620777.446986, "end_time": 1783208733.964, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759620777.446986, "end_time": 1783208733.964, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3509959390665572 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.14202184195901696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5003064048505272, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2294539435535619, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.7934042317169401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.20427029069544175, 0.3937762559534268, 0.05895670636563755, 0.1517364727689708, 0.7685977471107392, 0.06934409839582649, 0.28697040130296847, 0.2046917696896617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290261.072736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290261.072736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6659320245230239, 0.3340679754769761 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[War between Egypt and Ethiopia is a growing fear.](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/) If water rights over the Nile are not settled peacefully, it is feared Egypt could attack Ethiopia. Specifically, it is commonly speculated that Egypt [could bomb](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/23/itll-cause-a-water-war-divisions-run-deep-as-filling-of-nile-dam-nears) the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and spark a conflict. \n\nThe Nile River is [very important](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6VaNG8_nE) for both nations. If access to the river is reduced by Ethiopia, Egypt potentially faces severe water shortages in a country with well over 100 million people. [Many experts](https://news.usc.edu/188414/nile-river-water-dispute-filling-dam-egypt-ethiopia-usc-study/) attest to the potential danger the Dam poses." }, { "id": 14953, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "short_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "url_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "slug": "h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-31T20:39:55.009908Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.752541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", 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"start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14953, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "created_at": "2023-01-31T20:39:55.009908Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-05T08:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-05T08:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***A Note for Beginner Tournament Participants***\n\nThis question resolved ambiguously because it did not account for a delay in the launch window that was announced prior to the question opening.\n\nWe have created a [new version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15015/h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch/) to use in the Beginner Tournament.\n\n-----\n\n***Original Question Text***\n\nThe original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 between 10:37:55 a.m. and 10:44:15 a.m. (JST) for ALOS-3.\n\nALOS-3 will launch aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive if the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 successfully launches before or within 12 hours of its announced launch window and successfully delivers ALOS-3 to begin its mission.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "- Admins will use [this source](https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/h3-22-alos-3-maiden-flight/) to determine if the launch was a \"Success\". \n- If the Launch Status does not equal \"Success\" *or* the launch is delayed by more than 12 hours, this question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 14953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675442205.769249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675442205.769249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.38024443638473887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5176266504557887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675442205.789661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675442205.789661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6591999418370924, 0.3408000581629076 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***A Note for Beginner Tournament Participants***\n\nThis question resolved ambiguously because it did not account for a delay in the launch window that was announced prior to the question opening.\n\nWe have created a [new version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15015/h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch/) to use in the Beginner Tournament.\n\n-----\n\n***Original Question Text***\n\nThe original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 between 10:37:55 a.m. and 10:44:15 a.m. (JST) for ALOS-3.\n\nALOS-3 will launch aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html)." }, { "id": 14899, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?", "short_title": "1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?", "url_title": "1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?", "slug": "1000-dead-in-israeliran-conflict-by-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-01-30T02:11:46.821470Z", "published_at": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.829846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-07T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 286, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": 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"geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14899, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-01-30T02:11:46.821470Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-03T17:45:25.808000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-03T17:45:25.808000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-07T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-07T16:40:47.057915Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. [Tensions have increased in recent years](https://www.mei.edu/publications/israels-new-iran-strategy-complicates-regional-security), particularly with [Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities](https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/10/deciphering-iran-s-nuclear-strategy-pub-85313) and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the [US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions](https://www.sipri.org/commentary/expert-comment/2019/us-withdrawal-iran-deal-one-year), further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel.\n\nIn recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including [airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-israeli-general-claims-attack-convoy-iraq-syria-border-2022-12-14/) in Syria and Iraq, and [rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/14/israel-says-rocket-attacks-from-syria-in-the-north-amid-gaza-fighting-in-south/?sh=25d9c9cc5c2d). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. \n\nU.S. officials stated that [Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/) on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to [contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979?mod=hp_lead_pos10).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports 1,000 or more [state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.\n\nIf UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14899, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671296.384323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671296.384323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.03861001252508999 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.519811975552134, 6.508431230178326, 1.5746893564210764, 1.3454178215308124, 0.6217993121103037, 1.0571752845881592, 0.12014184486975277, 0.48076763322041804, 0.47117924796977256, 0.0055425536550397685, 0.5607123529058429, 0.04330270071022733, 0.100100914717416, 0.06844840446310152, 0.30070037112887626, 0.06773495818066212, 0.0022153172181560983, 0.002059598129266393, 0.13723132570032542, 0.0653668062850498, 0.6279219657942532, 1.0004369475105473e-05, 0.15795796066159667, 0.02295239441876645, 0.012486156419566099, 0.17564334739199455, 0.05305377998570248, 6.350684293366904e-05, 0.0014923501185147474, 0.0, 0.003137847471996346, 0.015951594332067096, 0.0903125198361515, 0.0011363388055449304, 0.06576889029796662, 0.009336005961776018, 0.006717565269425022, 0.0, 0.0, 1.591429211688691e-05, 0.08134032455098694, 0.06347007296104698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006714824732457104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2181189780963858, 0.015271783102850392, 0.0, 0.0018275716838053267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06814485328546403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09346514722321213, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1109712673568874e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011791281109703408, 0.010615852142671054, 1.0116396833568607e-05, 0.0, 0.07846922455317654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.433368475665018e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1447357468527194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008271736502086216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.231853422683205e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046085732891998777, 0.0, 0.0007456959779237599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011953572228480293 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.67764778424046, "peer_score": 12.854884658998337, "coverage": 0.9999904024678904, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999904024678904, "spot_peer_score": 24.967720718277096, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.67764778424046, "peer_archived_score": 12.854884658998337, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.967720718277096, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287020.610892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287020.610892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.956039461136092, 0.043960538863908084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. [Tensions have increased in recent years](https://www.mei.edu/publications/israels-new-iran-strategy-complicates-regional-security), particularly with [Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities](https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/10/deciphering-iran-s-nuclear-strategy-pub-85313) and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the [US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions](https://www.sipri.org/commentary/expert-comment/2019/us-withdrawal-iran-deal-one-year), further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel.\n\nIn recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including [airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-israeli-general-claims-attack-convoy-iraq-syria-border-2022-12-14/) in Syria and Iraq, and [rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/14/israel-says-rocket-attacks-from-syria-in-the-north-amid-gaza-fighting-in-south/?sh=25d9c9cc5c2d). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. \n\nU.S. officials stated that [Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/) on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to [contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979?mod=hp_lead_pos10)." } ] }
