Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3940
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The House of Lords is mainly composed of members which are appointed by the Prime Minister, though there are also hereditary members and spaces reserved for members of the clergy.\n\nThere is a long history of proposed reform to the House of Lords as well as reforms actually taking place. In recent times this has included the expulsion of most hereditary members in 1999.\n\nIn December 2022 Labour (the then Opposition party) unveiled the [Brown Report](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf), a document commissioned by the Labour Party and headed by former PM Gordon Brown. The report included a recommendation that the House of Lords be replaced with a new second chamber. In a press conference announcing the report the current Labour leader Keir Starmer endorsed the recommendation (including all recommendations in the report) and said it would be a priority for the next Labour government, should it win the next general election. The report did not specify a preferred method for appointing the new second chamber.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](single non-transferable vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if before 2030 the members of the House of Lords are amended such that at least 15% of seats are decided based on some kind of proportional representation. The proportions to be used could be taken from election results after the Lords are reformed (e.g. in a dedicated election) or from an election that has already taken place / a Commons election (e.g. if parties may appoint a number of Lords proportional to their general election performance).\n\nProportional representation includes but is not limited to party list PR, additional member, mixed-member PR, parallel voting, and single transferable vote. Alternative vote is not included.\n\nSome proportional and semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, mixed-member PR, and parallel voting elect some seats using a non-proportional system (e.g. FPTP in single member constituencies) and others using a proportional system (e.g. party list PR). For the purposes of this question, only the seats elected using proportional representation method count toward the 15% threshold.\n\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and replaced with a different second chamber, this question will relate that that new chamber. If no such entity exists the question resolves **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763275947.876167, "end_time": 1766414228.359938, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763275947.876167, "end_time": 1766414228.359938, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06581267149646623 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3239984154485755, 2.3398637121475194, 1.117291607069072, 0.5898635470599414, 0.2479696983050695, 1.7202211709310022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2807108130594699, 0.0, 0.5544270278675139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5270590116682182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288811.826058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288811.826058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9731690910485057, 0.02683090895149435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [House of Lords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords#Membership) is the second chamber of the UK legislature which reviews bills but does not ultimately have the power to block them. The House of Lords is mainly composed of members which are appointed by the Prime Minister, though there are also hereditary members and spaces reserved for members of the clergy.\n\nThere is a long history of proposed reform to the House of Lords as well as reforms actually taking place. In recent times this has included the expulsion of most hereditary members in 1999.\n\nIn December 2022 Labour (the then Opposition party) unveiled the [Brown Report](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf), a document commissioned by the Labour Party and headed by former PM Gordon Brown. The report included a recommendation that the House of Lords be replaced with a new second chamber. In a press conference announcing the report the current Labour leader Keir Starmer endorsed the recommendation (including all recommendations in the report) and said it would be a priority for the next Labour government, should it win the next general election. The report did not specify a preferred method for appointing the new second chamber.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](single non-transferable vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result." }, { "id": 14062, "title": "Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?", "short_title": "TikTok Ban in US before 2024", "url_title": "TikTok Ban in US before 2024", "slug": "tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024", "author_id": 135221, "author_username": "TheGrassGuy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-15T19:38:36.927531Z", "published_at": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.141999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 321, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14062, "title": "Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-15T19:38:36.927531Z", "open_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T18:11:23.626184Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T18:11:23.626184Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)\n\n----\n\nIn December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American cannot do all of the following:\n\n* download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)\n\n* similarly for the iOS App Store\n\n* use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)\n\nThe above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.", "fine_print": "* Clarification issued on March 10, 2023: The line quoted below was added:\n>The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.", "post_id": 14062, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704068609.202014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704068609.202014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, 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1704068609.250039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704068609.250039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 981, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)\n\n----\n\nIn December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China." }, { "id": 14060, "title": "Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?", "short_title": "Lunar settlement by 2030", "url_title": "Lunar settlement by 2030", "slug": "lunar-settlement-by-2030", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-15T15:02:27.845566Z", "published_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T02:20:00.698424Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:51:58.930616Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:51:58.930616Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14060, "title": "Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-15T15:02:27.845566Z", "open_time": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-03T02:01:09.589200Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-03T02:01:09.589200Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/)\n* [When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/)\n\n*This question makes use of the background material [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/), lightly edited.*\n\n---\n\nThe first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.\n\nThere are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the <a href=\"https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf\">Artemis program</a>. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:\n<ul>\n<li>The Artemis project includes a <a href=\"https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/\">lunar base camp</a>.</li>\n<li>ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism.</li>\n<li>Joseph Silk suggested to build a <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08941-8\">crewed radiotelescope installation</a> on the far side of the Moon.</li>\n<li><a href=\"about:blank\">The International Lunar Research Station</a> (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045.</li>\n<li>SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for <a href=\"https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/moon/index.html\">landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence</a> there.</li>\n</ul>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if there has been at least 1 living human on the surface of Earth's Moon for 365 consecutive days before Jan 1, 2030. This does not require for the same person to remain on the Moon for this period, only that there is one or more people continuously on the Moon for the entire time. The resolution date will be at the end of this 365-day period.", "fine_print": "For this question, a \"human\" will be considered to be someone with enough genetic similarity to successfully reproduce with a typical human from 1900, with 1900-era technology to facilitate the pregnancy and birth.", "post_id": 14060, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763089490.832391, "end_time": 1764493459.977281, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763089490.832391, "end_time": 1764493459.977281, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03815711760432928 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.000811381438112, 1.1990471081648932, 0.19814466539791084, 0.9529926424419272, 0.33261630574529255, 0.04688283260038656, 0.08323474295822139, 5.601863680241811e-05, 0.0025213310096394706, 0.0, 0.06569736996957229, 0.0028123176771588064, 0.016450049038381057, 0.0, 0.0004681506103020112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00620982732083475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.28512682904026e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005761389839268461, 0.0016538302536686447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008926255305896994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20537481416382025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003605077106953297, 0.0, 0.8799217174931346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007196420551877343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06143189460749247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001336739220004897 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289495.915522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289495.915522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983728120807471, 0.0016271879192529166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 461, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/)\n* [When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/)\n\n*This question makes use of the background material [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/), lightly edited.*\n\n---\n\nThe first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.\n\nThere are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the <a href=\"https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf\">Artemis program</a>. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:\n<ul>\n<li>The Artemis project includes a <a href=\"https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/\">lunar base camp</a>.</li>\n<li>ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism.</li>\n<li>Joseph Silk suggested to build a <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08941-8\">crewed radiotelescope installation</a> on the far side of the Moon.</li>\n<li><a href=\"about:blank\">The International Lunar Research Station</a> (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045.</li>\n<li>SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for <a href=\"https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/moon/index.html\">landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence</a> there.</li>\n</ul>" }, { "id": 14033, "title": "Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before 2024?", "short_title": "Binance Bankruptcy or Rescue before 2024", "url_title": "Binance Bankruptcy or Rescue before 2024", "slug": "binance-bankruptcy-or-rescue-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-14T21:07:11.632461Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.604530Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14033, "title": "Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-14T21:07:11.632461Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T02:24:56.317852Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T02:24:56.317852Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/)\n\n---\n\n[Binance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance) is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in 2017. Originally based in China, it is reportedly registered in the Cayman Islands.\n\nBinance temporarily halted trading on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, and [according to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/binance-ceo-cz-deposits-coming-back-in-but-bumpy-road-ahead.html) its CEO, Changpeng Zhao (often referred to as \"CZ\"), stated in an internal memo:\n\n>While we expect the next several months to be bumpy, we will get past this challenging period – and we’ll be stronger for having been through it.\n\nIn addition to the trading halt Binance has been under a long-running investigation by the US Department of Justice which is [reportedly nearing its conclusion](https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/12/binance-investigation-stalls-doj-disagrees/).\n\nThe collapse of FTX has raised concerns about the broader health of crypto organizations. FTX, headquartered in the Bahamas, [filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-for-bankruptcy.html) on November 11, 2022. Prior to filing for bankruptcy FTX was often seen as a \"lender of last resort\" and signed several deals to purchase other crypto firms or that included the option to purchase, [such as with BlockFi](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/ftx-signs-a-deal-giving-it-the-option-to-buy-crypto-lender-blockfi-.html).\n\n[According to the legal firm Norton Rose Fulbright](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/8ef0322b/proposed-legislation-may-trip-up-international-bankruptcy-filings-in-the-united-states), foreign companies often seek US bankruptcy protection due to favorable conditions and a low threshold for eligibility:\n\n>A large driver of the US Bankruptcy Courts’ popularity has been ease of access. The statutes that define the parameters of who can be a Chapter 11 debtor, and what court may oversee the restructuring, are extremely broad. Any entity that is domiciled in the US, has a place of business in the US, or has property in the US, may avail itself of Chapter 11. See 11 U.S.C. § 109. A debtor further may file its petition in any venue where it is domiciled (i.e. incorporated), where its principal place of business in the US is located, where its principal assets in the US are located, or in any venue where any of its affiliates can file. See 28 U.S.C. § 1408. In contrast to other countries, the debtor need not be a domestic company to file for bankruptcy in the US Importantly, no threshold or minimum amount of assets located in the US is required to qualify. In fact, courts have considered bank accounts, attorney retainers, and even causes of action owned by a foreign debtor as property in the US for purposes of eligibility. This has allowed many international companies to restructure their debts in the US even though they hold very little assets in the US.\n\nAlso see a [supporting analysis by the legal firm Skadden](https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2021/06/quarterly-insights/international-companies-turn-to-us-restructurings). FTX's US filing has produced a [jurisdictional dispute](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/16/bahamian-liquidators-say-ftx-wasnt-authorized-to-file-for-bankruptcy-in-the-us/) with regulators in the Bahamas.\n\n***Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy or a similar filing of insolvency in any jurisdiction **OR** Binance has signed a deal to be purchased by or the option to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a filing similar to bankruptcy will be said to have occurred if Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed under the insolvency law of any jurisdiction, for example [liquidation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidation), [administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administration_(law)), or [winding up](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands_bankruptcy_law#Winding_up_of_companies). These examples are not exhaustive, and any insolvency related filing in any jurisdiction considered, in the judgment of Metaculus, to be broadly similar will be sufficient.\n\n[fine-print]\nThe purchase or option to purchase by another organization on its own will not be sufficient, the purchase or option to purchase must be characterized by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as in response to liquidity or other problems as described.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076912.896367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076912.896367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.10962715856792565 ], 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"no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\r\n\r\n>We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. 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"2027-06-30T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T13:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-30T13:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea. \n\nThe Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile that can be launched from a variety of platforms, including ships, submarines, and land-based systems. It is designed to attack a variety of targets, including ships, ground vehicles, and buildings. The missile has a range of over 1,000 miles, making it capable of hitting targets on mainland China from peripheral regions of Japan.\n\n[Japan is considering purchasing hundreds of U.S.-built Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major defense buildup,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/japan-tomahawk-missiles-ukraine-war/) marking a significant break with its long-standing tradition of avoiding offensive weapons. The move comes as China undergoes a military modernization and North Korea continues its nuclear program. Japan is also set to unveil its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major increase in defense spending. These moves may indicate, as well as contribute to, increased tensions in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.\n\nArticle 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea, and air forces. However, a 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally is attacked. The purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would previously have been considered offensive weapons, would mark a significant break with Japan's long-standing tradition of avoiding such weapons and could have significant political implications.", "resolution_criteria": "Metaculus admins will resolve this question as **Yes** or **No** according to credible published sources and the self-reports of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, the Japan Defense Agency, and the Japanese government.\n\nTested means a full, integrated flight test in which a Tomahawk missile is launched, navigates towards a target, and hits it", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14025, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763546225.459466, "end_time": 1765213351.016387, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8696637846936898 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763546225.459466, "end_time": 1765213351.016387, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8696637846936898 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13033621530631023, 0.8696637846936898 ], "means": [ 0.8433038866346261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290219.095832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290219.095832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25111003701339596, 0.748889962986604 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea. \n\nThe Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile that can be launched from a variety of platforms, including ships, submarines, and land-based systems. It is designed to attack a variety of targets, including ships, ground vehicles, and buildings. The missile has a range of over 1,000 miles, making it capable of hitting targets on mainland China from peripheral regions of Japan.\n\n[Japan is considering purchasing hundreds of U.S.-built Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major defense buildup,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/japan-tomahawk-missiles-ukraine-war/) marking a significant break with its long-standing tradition of avoiding offensive weapons. The move comes as China undergoes a military modernization and North Korea continues its nuclear program. Japan is also set to unveil its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major increase in defense spending. These moves may indicate, as well as contribute to, increased tensions in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.\n\nArticle 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea, and air forces. However, a 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally is attacked. The purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would previously have been considered offensive weapons, would mark a significant break with Japan's long-standing tradition of avoiding such weapons and could have significant political implications." }, { "id": 14022, "title": "Will backpropagation take a back seat by 2030?", "short_title": "Backpropagation taking a back seat by 2030", "url_title": "Backpropagation taking a back seat by 2030", "slug": "backpropagation-taking-a-back-seat-by-2030", "author_id": 118245, "author_username": "peter_m", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T18:00:26.485943Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T04:36:19.111045Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T00:12:29.877469Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14022, "title": "Will backpropagation take a back seat by 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-13T18:00:26.485943Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-28T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Backpropagation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backpropagation) is a widely used method of efficiently computing gradients of functions with many inputs and few outputs and hence particularly popular for modern machine learning techniques like neural networks. It can be seen as applying the chain rule \"from outside to inside\". \nIt is generalised by [Automatic Differentiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_differentiation) which imposes no such restriction on the order in which to apply the chain rule. Choosing this order appropriately may lead to an additional speed-up.\n\nAt NeurIPS 2022 Geoffrey Hinton presented the [forward-forward algorithm](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf), an alternative to backpropagation and automatic differentiation more generally. While it does not seem to yield competitive results just yet, one might wonder about more research in this direction.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2030, over 50% of machine learning frameworks (each framework is weighted by its relative usage as elicited from [paperswithcode.com/trends](https://paperswithcode.com/trends) or whatever we deem to be the closest alternative if it doesn't exist anymore) use something other than backpropagation or automatic differentiation.", "fine_print": "If it is not obvious whether a framework \"uses\" backpropagation or automatic differentiation—e.g. because multiple methods are implemented or it is abstracted away in the code—we look at the \"Getting Started\" section or something equivalent on their website and see whether the first \"reasonable\" example (no `print(\"Hello world!\")`) listed there uses backpropagation or automatic differentiation under the hood. If no such page/example exists, this will be up to the discretion of moderators, but should involve checking the source code or reaching out to developers.\n\nNote that automatic differentiation is included because this question is not supposed to resolve positively due to some minor local modifications in the order of differentiation which, technically, is not backpropagation anymore. Moreover, we use paperswithcode.com to track progress in machine learning instead of just neural networks in case neural networks are replaced by a different approach, but backpropagation remains the best option for neural networks.", "post_id": 14022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762225628.418546, "end_time": 1764522419.465837, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762225628.418546, "end_time": 1764522419.465837, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.2893219457976402 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5851433699949684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.9305060735312511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48124886427852265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289036.756146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289036.756146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8034017354287101, 0.19659826457128993 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Backpropagation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backpropagation) is a widely used method of efficiently computing gradients of functions with many inputs and few outputs and hence particularly popular for modern machine learning techniques like neural networks. It can be seen as applying the chain rule \"from outside to inside\". \nIt is generalised by [Automatic Differentiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_differentiation) which imposes no such restriction on the order in which to apply the chain rule. Choosing this order appropriately may lead to an additional speed-up.\n\nAt NeurIPS 2022 Geoffrey Hinton presented the [forward-forward algorithm](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf), an alternative to backpropagation and automatic differentiation more generally. While it does not seem to yield competitive results just yet, one might wonder about more research in this direction." }, { "id": 14021, "title": "Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?", "short_title": "Agriculture at Least 5% of World GDP by 2030", "url_title": "Agriculture at Least 5% of World GDP by 2030", "slug": "agriculture-at-least-5-of-world-gdp-by-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T17:02:54.906515Z", "published_at": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:07:48.535654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14021, "title": "Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-13T17:02:54.906515Z", "open_time": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-22T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-22T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many economies, which has led to a shift away from these traditional sectors and towards industries such as manufacturing, services, and technology.\n\nBased on the data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS) as of January 2023, there has been a small trend reversal since the bottom of 3.2% in 2006, to a final value of 4.3% in 2021, still down a lot from a recorded high of 10.6% in 1968.\n\n| Year | % of valued added (% of GDP) |\n|------|-----------------------------|\n| 1971 | 9.3 |\n| 1981 | 7 |\n| 1991 | 4.6 |\n| 2001 | 3.4 |\n| 2011 | 4 |\n| 2021 | 4.3 |\n\nWithin the latest data, there has been substantial heterogeneity between countries of varying income levels. Changes in long-term trends may thus, at least in part, be understood as by varying levels of global GDP being represented by different income levels. \n\n| Income Group | valued added (% of GDP) |\n| --- | --- |\n| Low income | 25.6 |\n| Lower middle income | 15.4 |\n| Low & middle income | 9.1 |\n| Middle income | 8.8 |\n| Upper middle income | 6.7 |\n| High income | 1.3 |\n\n\nSome of these trends may also be explained by agricultural productivity growth. This is highlighted by a 2018 [Global Food Security](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912418300014) paper:\n\n>World-wide, agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 2.54% during 2001–2014, faster than the 1961–2014 average rate of 2.24%.\n\n>United Nations data show declining use of land and employment in agriculture.\n\n>This has led to accelerated growth in productivity of these factors.\n\n>Declining growth rates in harvested yield have been offset by increased cropping intensity.\n\nHowever, a 2021 [Nature Climate Change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1) paper investigated the impact of climate change on global agricultural productivity growth, finding that anthropogenic climate change “has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth.” This may add further risks in the near and medium term that may not have been accounted for in some previous analyses.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS\" width='100%25' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the value added (as a percent of world GDP) of agriculture, forestry, and fishing, is 5% or above for any one year after 2021 and prior to 2030, this question resolves as **Yes**. Resolution will be based on the first available data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS). Later changes or revisions after the question has resolved will be irrelevant to this question.", "fine_print": "* The number rounded to one decimal place, as shown in the chart, will be used and not the unrounded number from the underlying data download.\n* According to the World Bank methodology: Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources.\n* The time-lag in resolve date (currently set to January 1, 2032) is due to the possibility that data may not be made available within one year. If the World Bank stops publishing this data in a timely manner Metaculus may use an alternate resolution source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 14021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763588793.030362, "end_time": 1768200241.578776, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763588793.030362, "end_time": 1768200241.578776, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.2802453832440597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 1.1213241560263298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287783.132671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287783.132671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8440528783439966, 0.1559471216560034 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many economies, which has led to a shift away from these traditional sectors and towards industries such as manufacturing, services, and technology.\n\nBased on the data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS) as of January 2023, there has been a small trend reversal since the bottom of 3.2% in 2006, to a final value of 4.3% in 2021, still down a lot from a recorded high of 10.6% in 1968.\n\n| Year | % of valued added (% of GDP) |\n|------|-----------------------------|\n| 1971 | 9.3 |\n| 1981 | 7 |\n| 1991 | 4.6 |\n| 2001 | 3.4 |\n| 2011 | 4 |\n| 2021 | 4.3 |\n\nWithin the latest data, there has been substantial heterogeneity between countries of varying income levels. Changes in long-term trends may thus, at least in part, be understood as by varying levels of global GDP being represented by different income levels. \n\n| Income Group | valued added (% of GDP) |\n| --- | --- |\n| Low income | 25.6 |\n| Lower middle income | 15.4 |\n| Low & middle income | 9.1 |\n| Middle income | 8.8 |\n| Upper middle income | 6.7 |\n| High income | 1.3 |\n\n\nSome of these trends may also be explained by agricultural productivity growth. This is highlighted by a 2018 [Global Food Security](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912418300014) paper:\n\n>World-wide, agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 2.54% during 2001–2014, faster than the 1961–2014 average rate of 2.24%.\n\n>United Nations data show declining use of land and employment in agriculture.\n\n>This has led to accelerated growth in productivity of these factors.\n\n>Declining growth rates in harvested yield have been offset by increased cropping intensity.\n\nHowever, a 2021 [Nature Climate Change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1) paper investigated the impact of climate change on global agricultural productivity growth, finding that anthropogenic climate change “has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth.” This may add further risks in the near and medium term that may not have been accounted for in some previous analyses.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS\" width='100%25' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 14012, "title": "Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?", "short_title": "Hans Niemann vs Magnus Carlsen, Dec 2022", "url_title": "Hans Niemann vs Magnus Carlsen, Dec 2022", "slug": "hans-niemann-vs-magnus-carlsen-dec-2022", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T01:33:28.051458Z", "published_at": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.973506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14012, "title": "Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?", "created_at": "2022-12-13T01:33:28.051458Z", "open_time": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-24T13:39:40.851135Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-24T13:39:40.851135Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship, https://www.fide.com/calendar/52524, in 2022 running from Dec 25 - Dec 30, is a prestigious yearly tournament run by FIDE, the main organizing body of chess. In 2021 World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen [won the Rapid section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists) (15 minute games) with runner up Ian Nepomniachtchi and Alireza Firouzja [won the Blitz section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Blitz_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists_2) (5 minute games) with runner up Jan-Krzysztof Duda.\n\nOn September 4, 2022, Magnus Carlsen lost a classical game to Grandmaster Hans Niemann and withdrew from that tournament, later accusing Hans of cheating in chess more often than Hans had publicly admitted. On September 19, in an online cup, Magnus then resigned a game against Hans after one move. On 20 October 2022, Niemann filed a federal lawsuit in Missouri against Carlsen, his company Play Magnus Group, Chess.com, and other notable chess personalities Danny Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura. More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy.\n\nMagnus and Hans have signed up to play in both the Rapid and Blitz portions of the upcoming tournament. They may get paired. Will they get paired, and play a game with more than one move apiece? Or will they not play, because (1) one of them withdraws from the tournaments, (2) they do not get paired in either tournament, or (3) one of them resigns any paired game with the other before playing two or more moves?", "resolution_criteria": "Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672400976.7756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.21677630974722567 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672400976.7756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.21677630974722567 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7832236902527743, 0.21677630974722567 ], "means": [ 0.21026291169009773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7168727180335508, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5957923460218653, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0630433923324438, 1.1025292908669395, 0.0, 0.6407103357440366, 0.0, 1.266120265882265, 0.07804183443061195, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.7050491693782512, "coverage": 0.8920000970295012, "baseline_score": 41.41535298083993, "spot_peer_score": 25.23253270354389, "peer_archived_score": 3.7050491693782512, "baseline_archived_score": 41.41535298083993, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.23253270354389 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672385605.367716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672385605.367716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9166487570618618, 0.08335124293813817 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship, https://www.fide.com/calendar/52524, in 2022 running from Dec 25 - Dec 30, is a prestigious yearly tournament run by FIDE, the main organizing body of chess. In 2021 World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen [won the Rapid section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists) (15 minute games) with runner up Ian Nepomniachtchi and Alireza Firouzja [won the Blitz section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Blitz_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists_2) (5 minute games) with runner up Jan-Krzysztof Duda.\n\nOn September 4, 2022, Magnus Carlsen lost a classical game to Grandmaster Hans Niemann and withdrew from that tournament, later accusing Hans of cheating in chess more often than Hans had publicly admitted. On September 19, in an online cup, Magnus then resigned a game against Hans after one move. On 20 October 2022, Niemann filed a federal lawsuit in Missouri against Carlsen, his company Play Magnus Group, Chess.com, and other notable chess personalities Danny Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura. More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy.\n\nMagnus and Hans have signed up to play in both the Rapid and Blitz portions of the upcoming tournament. They may get paired. Will they get paired, and play a game with more than one move apiece? Or will they not play, because (1) one of them withdraws from the tournaments, (2) they do not get paired in either tournament, or (3) one of them resigns any paired game with the other before playing two or more moves?" }, { "id": 13994, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "short_title": "DeSantis Nomination According to Markets", "url_title": "DeSantis Nomination According to Markets", "slug": "desantis-nomination-according-to-markets", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-11T05:26:25.879541Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.999321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043261.331486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043261.331486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010719646640494298 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.192046736025318, 6.4922167376016855, 0.601676458514836, 0.0, 0.0445204972862971, 0.30692947740374793, 0.19091641448600924, 0.016147466317471694, 0.0, 0.16326464406554175, 0.07819766230331264, 0.0, 0.024913107983138373, 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questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13990, "title": "In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?", "short_title": "COVID Cases in China in 2023", "url_title": "COVID Cases in China in 2023", "slug": "covid-cases-in-china-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-11T04:37:24.013757Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.464871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China end Zero-COVID?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13767/chinese-cessation-of-zero-covid-policy/)\n* [When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10936/china-to-reach-250k-covid-cases-per-day/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13990, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968162.616187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968162.616187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04947805807803645 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.5728714534128945, 4.579327148275835, 2.4495584583836028, 1.013621719766936, 1.403286009014741, 4.291557446665537, 1.8092737687325964, 0.20738076490131552, 0.1886071918598869, 0.0, 0.21519606011627704, 0.1152661292140745, 0.0, 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 664, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China end Zero-COVID?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13767/chinese-cessation-of-zero-covid-policy/)\n* [When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10936/china-to-reach-250k-covid-cases-per-day/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13989, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?", "short_title": "Kerch Bridge on January 1, 2024", "url_title": "Kerch Bridge on January 1, 2024", "slug": "kerch-bridge-on-january-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-11T03:41:50.451339Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.508926Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13989, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?", "created_at": "2022-12-11T03:41:50.451339Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12569/crimean-bridge-knocked-out-by-2024/)\n* [Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n> As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056710.060555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056710.060555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016820199915457915 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.64604257269679, 11.110104018162586, 1.731271331521455, 0.325167850421309, 0.0002900342201524143, 0.18682361368392256, 0.1841771198687726, 0.15138960541228208, 0.03398047023299072, 0.01805585967706622, 0.06459648141853566, 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2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/)\n* [Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will make this a judgment call but generally resolve positive if at least 25 civilians have to evacuate. \n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. 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before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10154/radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13987, "title": "In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?", "short_title": "Ali Khameini No Longer Supreme Leader", "url_title": "Ali Khameini No Longer Supreme Leader", "slug": "ali-khameini-no-longer-supreme-leader", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T22:34:45.017562Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.221035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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process would count as new countries.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680620126.278295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680620126.278295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9827563043696034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000613430046850975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001477575317299807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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NATO have on December 31, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10643/nato-member-states-in-2025/)\n* [Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-nato-member-by-2024/)\n* [Will Finland join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/)\n* [Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/)\n* [Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12733/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13985, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?", "short_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?", "url_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?", "slug": "bilateral-ceasefire-in-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 134915, "author_username": "Firenze", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T20:06:17.920236Z", 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13981, "title": "Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?", "created_at": "2022-12-10T06:59:52.202152Z", "open_time": "2022-12-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-12T03:07:54.603102Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-12T03:07:54.603102Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Toronto is the largest city in Canada at around 6 to 10 million people, depending how the figure is counted.\n\n\"Despite being cold,\" [notes Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto#Winter_and_snowfall)\n\n> extended snow-free periods occur in most winter seasons and precipitation can fall as rain .... Average winter snowfall is 121.5 cm (47.83 in) at the weather station in Downtown Toronto and 108.5 cm (42.72 in) at [YYZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Pearson_International_Airport).\n\nEnvironment and Climate Change Canada is Canada’s official weather and climate source. Tweets by @environmentca meteorologists are available at https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherON and en français [@ECCCMeteoON](https://twitter.com/ecccmeteoon).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves **Yes** if by year's end, some Environment and Climate Change Canada official statement, including a Tweet by an affiliated account, indicates that anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area has experienced any of:\n\n* a \"white Christmas\" \n\n* [snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST](https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-general-tools-resources/historical-christmas-snowfall-data.html#label1)\n\nIf no unambiguous indication occurs by ECCC the question will resolve **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671916057.418603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6968537645135691 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671916057.418603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6968537645135691 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7793535772129663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.41805183898773424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0598617310603975, 0.0216015677189824, 0.07369964090399271, 0.5189260397995925, 0.040271492127277986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.4502934691181362, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 0.3965752739790264, 0.7288213086725668, 1.2603325595235266, 0.0, 1.1938327340865411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.221989172829317, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0362084399969116 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.835610270785706, "coverage": 0.999980896377256, "baseline_score": 21.476847850804866, "spot_peer_score": 6.082091586008295, "peer_archived_score": 5.835610270785706, "baseline_archived_score": 21.476847850804866, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.082091586008295 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671916057.435442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671916057.435442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27345375703557917, 0.7265462429644208 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Toronto is the largest city in Canada at around 6 to 10 million people, depending how the figure is counted.\n\n\"Despite being cold,\" [notes Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto#Winter_and_snowfall)\n\n> extended snow-free periods occur in most winter seasons and precipitation can fall as rain .... Average winter snowfall is 121.5 cm (47.83 in) at the weather station in Downtown Toronto and 108.5 cm (42.72 in) at [YYZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Pearson_International_Airport).\n\nEnvironment and Climate Change Canada is Canada’s official weather and climate source. Tweets by @environmentca meteorologists are available at https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherON and en français [@ECCCMeteoON](https://twitter.com/ecccmeteoon)." }, { "id": 13959, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?", "short_title": "Ukraine/Russia State of War on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine/Russia State of War on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainerussia-state-of-war-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T03:15:48.232748Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.970139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 190, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13959, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?", "created_at": "2022-12-10T03:15:48.232748Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count. \n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704053648.212095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704053648.212095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.008150153471772816 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.005874640971495, 8.971994156621443, 0.3451713033987943, 0.1987925858520146, 0.02205467453056858, 0.028257233810102658, 0.004438456994278857, 0.00029539577145877306, 0.05396232434381837, 0.194870588367139, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 13939, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?", "short_title": "SBF on US soil before February 1, 2023?", "url_title": "SBF on US soil before February 1, 2023?", "slug": "sbf-on-us-soil-before-february-1-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-09T06:17:34.068098Z", "published_at": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.520876Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13939, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-09T06:17:34.068098Z", "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-12T20:05:44.816028Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-12T20:05:44.816028Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Samuel Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, is a Bahamas-based American [former billionaire](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/ftx-ceo-sam-bankman-fried-lost-billionaire-status-filed-bankruptcy.html) entrepreneur and business executive who was the founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX until it [filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX) amid a liquidity crisis. \n\nSince the company's collapse, [allegations of serious mismanagement](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-bankruptcy-john-ray-ceo-failure/) have been made against Bankman-Fried, and [media reports](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-investigates-crypto-platform-ftx-11668020379) indicate that multiple civil and [criminal investigations](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/crypto/sbf-and-ftx-face-criminal-investigation-heres-what-has-happened-so-far-8276379/) are ongoing in the United States.\n\nAs of 9 December 2022, no charges are known to have been filed against any person in connection with the collapse of FTX. Bankman-Fried has [stated](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3912755-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-i-never-tried-to-commit-fraud), among other things:\n\n>\"I made a lot of mistakes, but I never tried to commit fraud.\"\n\nBankman-Fried has been [invited to testify](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/ftx-maxine-waters-doesnt-plan-to-subpoena-sam-bankman-fried-to-testify-at-hearing-on-crypto-exchanges-collapse.html) before the United States House Committee on Financial Services on December 13, but has yet to definitively indicate whether he will attend. \n\nOn December 4, Bankman-Fried [tweeted](https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1599511560384225281):\n\n>Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened, I would feel like it was my duty to appear before the committee and explain. I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th. But when it does, I will testify.\n\nHowever, the Senate Committee on Banking is also seeking testimony from Bankman-Fried, and its leadership has [indicated that it is prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/08/senate-committee-to-subpoena-ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-if-he-does-not-testify/) if he will not appear before the Committee voluntarily on December 14.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after December 8, 2022, and prior to February 1, 2023, Sam Bankman-Fried is alive and physically located on land in sovereign territory of the United States for any amount of time. This includes land in any of the 50 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, or any of the United States Minor Outlying Islands. Overflight of any of these territories without landing there does not count; nor does passing through U.S. territorial waters without disembarking on U.S. land. The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur for any reason, including if Bankman-Fried is incarcerated or incapacitated elsewhere in the world, or if he is no longer alive.", "fine_print": "To be \"physically located\" on US soil, Bankman-Fried must be there in person; telepresence of any kind, whether by video link, use of a robotic avatar, or any other method of distance communication, will not count. A US embassy, consulate, or other type of diplomatic mission does not count as U.S. soil.", "post_id": 13939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671716669.566422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9866943646689075 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671716669.566422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9866943646689075 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9742137547636512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0404697691408491, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009543845697788052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030700947389787302, 0.03736667972587818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11863433074219568, 0.0, 0.10887815532154052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05733267323233916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18197306897364698, 0.17704471272612737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06235169715667622, 0.04424069828384508, 0.11197781440287247, 0.0, 0.02073390695131329, 0.0, 0.06629408168376588, 0.2932384589229603, 0.14503130522971458, 1.3314232044895808, 1.8059623760592634, 11.410616002032032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.3175005434515996, "coverage": 0.37394173534033526, "baseline_score": 29.16366023093028, "spot_peer_score": 33.211688226683506, "peer_archived_score": 3.3175005434515996, "baseline_archived_score": 29.16366023093028, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.211688226683506 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671678223.236389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671678223.236389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03713948723905758, 0.9628605127609424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Samuel Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, is a Bahamas-based American [former billionaire](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/ftx-ceo-sam-bankman-fried-lost-billionaire-status-filed-bankruptcy.html) entrepreneur and business executive who was the founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX until it [filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX) amid a liquidity crisis. \n\nSince the company's collapse, [allegations of serious mismanagement](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-bankruptcy-john-ray-ceo-failure/) have been made against Bankman-Fried, and [media reports](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-investigates-crypto-platform-ftx-11668020379) indicate that multiple civil and [criminal investigations](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/crypto/sbf-and-ftx-face-criminal-investigation-heres-what-has-happened-so-far-8276379/) are ongoing in the United States.\n\nAs of 9 December 2022, no charges are known to have been filed against any person in connection with the collapse of FTX. Bankman-Fried has [stated](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3912755-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-i-never-tried-to-commit-fraud), among other things:\n\n>\"I made a lot of mistakes, but I never tried to commit fraud.\"\n\nBankman-Fried has been [invited to testify](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/ftx-maxine-waters-doesnt-plan-to-subpoena-sam-bankman-fried-to-testify-at-hearing-on-crypto-exchanges-collapse.html) before the United States House Committee on Financial Services on December 13, but has yet to definitively indicate whether he will attend. \n\nOn December 4, Bankman-Fried [tweeted](https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1599511560384225281):\n\n>Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened, I would feel like it was my duty to appear before the committee and explain. I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th. But when it does, I will testify.\n\nHowever, the Senate Committee on Banking is also seeking testimony from Bankman-Fried, and its leadership has [indicated that it is prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/08/senate-committee-to-subpoena-ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-if-he-does-not-testify/) if he will not appear before the Committee voluntarily on December 14." } ] }
