Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
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It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. The company provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NTRS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NTRS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756742987.509759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756742987.509759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.48298648648648645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 21.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Northern Trust Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. The company provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NTRS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39658, "title": "Will J's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "short_title": "J's close price rises?", "url_title": "J's close price rises?", "slug": "js-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.759822Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.603438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:32.248741Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T05:32:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39035, "title": "Will J's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.760233Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T11:18:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T05:32:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T12:48:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jacobs Solutions Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is J. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:14) is 146.23. You can find more information about Jacobs Solutions Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/J\n\nJacobs Solutions Inc. engages in the infrastructure and advanced facilities, and consulting businesses in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers consulting, planning, architecture, design, engineering, and infrastructure delivery services including project, program, and construction management and long-term operation of facilities. It also provides consulting services for consumer and manufacturing, defense and security, energy and utilities, financial services, government, health and life sciences, and transport sectors. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"J\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of J. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756816664.823244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756816664.823244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5320485232067509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 11.0, 4.0, 6.0, 15.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jacobs Solutions Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is J. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:14) is 146.23. You can find more information about Jacobs Solutions Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/J\n\nJacobs Solutions Inc. engages in the infrastructure and advanced facilities, and consulting businesses in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers consulting, planning, architecture, design, engineering, and infrastructure delivery services including project, program, and construction management and long-term operation of facilities. It also provides consulting services for consumer and manufacturing, defense and security, energy and utilities, financial services, government, health and life sciences, and transport sectors. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"J\"}}`" }, { "id": 39657, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "url_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "slug": "cmss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888140Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.581503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.253401Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39034, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888528Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CMS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39656, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "short_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "slug": "gpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.856588Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.628333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.354229Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39033, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.857073Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. 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It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. You can find more information about American Tower Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT\n\nAmerican Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of nearly 150,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of AMT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. You can find more information about American Tower Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT\n\nAmerican Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of nearly 150,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMT\"}}`" }, { "id": 39653, "title": "Will DOW's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "DOW's close price rises?", "url_title": "DOW's close price rises?", "slug": "dows-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.237317Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:32:00.573165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.603184Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T06:27:53Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "tournament", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-12T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T05:49:56.441728Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39030, "title": "Will DOW's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:27.237726Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:07:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T06:27:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:37:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dow Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOW. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39653, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4825, 0.5175000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5082792792792794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 12.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dow Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`" }, { "id": 39624, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.842666Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T12:23:42.053478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:44.113618Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39001, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.843062Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39624, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1755432242860824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`" }, { "id": 39604, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "short_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "url_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "slug": "an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.129119Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T14:51:00.199533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.382332Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38981, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.129519Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-02-12 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAt present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as âa central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfareâ. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":6455,\"question_id\":6455}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "fine_print": "The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UKâs [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-ĂŞtre animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark.", "post_id": 39604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756997314.453271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1590708437157523 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756997314.453271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1590708437157523 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11867352253110966 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 13.0, 9.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-02-12 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAt present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as âa central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfareâ. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":6455,\"question_id\":6455}}`" }, { "id": 39563, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-senate-vote-on-a-rescission-proposal-from-potus-by-october-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750360Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T00:53:25.419137Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.066685Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38940, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750787Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-04T00:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-04T00:53:25.393549Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the presidentâs long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) âIâd love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: âIt would be a big mistake if we donât \\[vote on rescissions]. Itâs the one way to make DOGE cuts real.â\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) âDo you think that theyâre asking for us to vote on this?â Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), âThere are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.â\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 28, 2025, and before October 1, 2025, the United States Senate conducts a floor [vote](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/voting.htm) on the passage of a rescission proposal made by the US president pursuant to the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48432).", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the Senate conducting a floor vote on the rescission bill; actual passage is not required. \n\nAn example of a vote that would count is [H.R. 3](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3) from the 115th Congress, in which the Senate on June 20, 2018 in a 48-50 Yay/Nay roll-call vote rejected President Trump's [proposed rescission](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-164/issue-74/house-section/article/H3832-1) of budget authority that was submitted on May 8, 2018.", "post_id": 39563, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.5015090336874525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 20.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the presidentâs long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) âIâd love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: âIt would be a big mistake if we donât \\[vote on rescissions]. Itâs the one way to make DOGE cuts real.â\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) âDo you think that theyâre asking for us to vote on this?â Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), âThere are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.â\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`" }, { "id": 39522, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "url_title": "Will EVs be >10% of new car sales in US before Oct 2025?", "slug": "will-evs-be-10-of-new-car-sales-in-us-before-oct-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.452236Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T01:11:00.070510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.793561Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38899, "title": "Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:09.452640Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T23:40:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:10:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31068). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies â from televisions to smartwatches â follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each countryâs journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> âOnce enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,â said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. âMore EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31068,\"question_id\":30815}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) exceed 10% of total light-duty vehicle sales (LDV) in the United States for any complete month before the sales figures reported for October 2025, according to [Argonne National Laboratory's Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates - Historical Data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, for each month the figure for BEV will be divided by the figure for Total LDV, as shown in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wc76loC5c06K0gB9GAOK9R47rhlLwBFgxAI88YEZHko/edit?gid=2032607654#gid=2032607654). \n\nIf Argonne National Laboratory ceases to timely update its data, Admins may name a different resolution source, as long as its methodology and numbers are substantially similar.\n\nPlease note that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) are a separate category from Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV). This question specifically excludes the hybrids and is asking only about BEV as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales.", "post_id": 39522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756948178.646548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756948178.646548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4442941176470589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31068). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries?srnd=green), once 5% of new car sales are fully electric, it can be a pivotal tipping point, signaling the start of mass adoption of a new technology:\n\n> New technologies â from televisions to smartwatches â follow an S-shaped adoption curve. Sales move at a crawl during the early-adopter phase, before hooking into a wave of mainstream acceptance. The transition often hinges on overcoming initial barriers such as cost, a lack of infrastructure and consumer skepticism. The tipping point signals the flattening of these barriers. While each countryâs journey to 5% plays out differently, timelines converge in the years that follow.\n\n> âOnce enough sales occur, you kind of have a virtuous cycle,â said Corey Cantor, an EV analyst at BloombergNEF. âMore EVs popping up means more people seeing them as mainstream, automakers more willing to invest in the market, and the charging infrastructure expanding on a good trajectory.\n\nMarket shares in other countries have been as follows:\n\n| Country | EV sales in Q4 2023 | EV market shr Q4 '24 (%) | First quarter at 5% tipping point |\n| ----------- | ------------------: | -----------------------: | --------------------------------: |\n| Norway | 25,028 | 79.6 | 2013 Q3 |\n| Iceland | 3,507 | 58.4 | 2019 Q1 |\n| Denmark | 21,890 | 44.9 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Sweden | 31,780 | 39.8 | 2020 Q1 |\n| Finland | 6,686 | 35.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Netherlands | 29,199 | 35.1 | 2018 Q4 |\n| Ireland | 1,164 | 33.9 | 2019 Q4 |\n| Belgium | 25,752 | 25.3 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Portugal | 11,265 | 24.3 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Switzerland | 16,581 | 23.9 | 2020 Q1 |\n| China | 1,879,600 | 23.8 | 2020 Q4 |\n| Austria | 13,083 | 23.3 | 2020 Q3 |\n| Israel | 6,772 | 22.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| France | 98,755 | 20.3 | 2020 Q1 |\n| New Zealand | 7,435 | 20.0 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Germany | 138,390 | 19.6 | 2020 Q3 |\n| UK | 79,602 | 17.6 | 2020 Q2 |\n| Thailand | 23,864 | 12.6 | 2023 Q1 |\n| Turkey | 36,026 | 12.0 | 2023 Q3 |\n| Romania | 3,655 | 10.8 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Slovenia | 1,126 | 10.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Australia | 21,571 | 9.5 | 2022 Q3 |\n| Canada | 38,160 | 9.4 | 2022 Q1 |\n| Spain | 20,666 | 8.7 | 2022 Q4 |\n| US | 313,822 | 8.1 | 2021 Q4 |\n| Estonia | 400 | 7.5 | 2023 Q2 |\n| South Korea | 36,009 | 6.9 | 2021 Q3 |\n| Hungary | 1,614 | 6.5 | 2022 Q4 |\n| Bulgaria | 551 | 5.8 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Italy | 21,033 | 5.4 | 2023 Q4 |\n| Greece | 1,579 | 5.3 | 2023 Q2 |\n\nArgonne National Laboratory tracks monthly electric vehicle sales figures in its [Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31068,\"question_id\":30815}}`" }, { "id": 39424, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-38-trillion-on-september-30-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.839669Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T14:48:00.196117Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:07.136335Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38801, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.840094Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-11 11:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39115). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39115,\"question_id\":38445}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for September 30, 2025 is less than \\$38,000,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 39424, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756908668.518388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.888 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756908668.518388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.888 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6879252025964165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-11 11:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39115). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39115,\"question_id\":38445}}`" }, { "id": 39394, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "short_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "url_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-rockies-lose-122-or-more-games-in-the-2025-mlb-season", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.413127Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T15:42:00.115465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.710484Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38771, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.413552Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-18 13:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38645). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIf the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38645,\"question_id\":37862}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 Major League Baseball season. \n\nThe Rockies' loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular accounts of the 2025 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). ", "fine_print": "Although teams are expected to play 162 games in the regular season, this question resolves as **No** if the Colorado Rockies have lost fewer than 122 games at the conclusion of the 2025 MLB regular season, regardless of whether games are cancelled or the season is truncated.\n\nThis question also resolves as **No** if it becomes mathematically impossible for the Rockies to lose 122 games.", "post_id": 39394, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756913192.663306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756913192.663306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.19660898841275762 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 17.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-18 13:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38645). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIf the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38645,\"question_id\":37862}}`" }, { "id": 39365, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "short_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "url_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "slug": "fide-grand-swiss-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.458100Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-02T00:11:00.076369Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.713489Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38742, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.458533Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 13:50:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39326,\"question_id\":38677}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a player other than one of the top 10 seeds wins the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39365, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756771004.059371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756771004.059371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.39612728555685345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 13:50:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39326,\"question_id\":38677}}`" }, { "id": 39355, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "url_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "slug": "trump-to-violate-impoundment-control-act-by-fy-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.304882Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-02T01:26:58.861014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.716902Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T02:29:48.525678Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38732, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.305346Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-31 20:48:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34505). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nImpoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34505,\"question_id\":34021}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a federal judge issues a decision finding the Trump administration in violation of the Impoundment Control Act (2 U.S.C. §§ 681â688) for attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds before September 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- The violation must be formally determined in a judicial decision by a federal court before the end of the 2025 fiscal year (September 27, 2025). Preliminary injunctions and temporary restraining orders do not qualify. The resolution of this question will not be affected by subsequent appeals.\n\n\\- The ruling must be publicly available and reported by credible legal or governmental sources.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on court rulings issued on or before September 27, 2025, Eastern Time, based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 39355, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756754778.480992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756754778.480992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2913478103232619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-31 20:48:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34505). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nImpoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34505,\"question_id\":34021}}`" }, { "id": 39336, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-29T17:45:24.294796Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:17:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:20:54.340179Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T15:18:50Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:21:25.876855Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:21:25.876855Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current EventsâĄ", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:20:54.636391Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38713, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-29T17:45:24.295237Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757063790.745473, "end_time": 1759340118.457, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757063790.745473, "end_time": 1759340118.457, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25827573428216366 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.025276766881705135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019935042740456897, 0.042153818055946424, 1.4697016808004857, 0.07349408263121644, 0.05733267323233916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5518258526907244, 0.15774725839889664, 1.0332741398051983, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.01440381309634558, 2.5126660732280492, 0.0, 0.70552391225079, 0.0, 0.0, 1.520865376407213, 0.0, 0.861502346261203, 0.0404697691408491, 0.3835729465604968, 2.8756147310720515, 0.08110778125291634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3231132985849611, 0.13633578835620466, 0.0, 0.10887815532154052, 0.0, 0.5545426186623912, 0.3875890827527114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0074318456856788395, 0.006517222435612316, 0.0, 0.8414412190720929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11745326059771638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025325464845858035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1952379986272593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9241154296783641 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 310, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela." }, { "id": 39331, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "short_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "url_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "slug": "paul-biya-reelected-in-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-29T00:55:22.542866Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:18:05.125444Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T15:11:45.201993Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:21:25.876855Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:21:25.876855Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłď¸", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38708, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-29T00:55:22.543304Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Paul Biya is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if someone else is declared the winner of the election. If no winner is declared before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "In the event that the fairness or results of the election are disputed, this question will resolve according to the official pronouncements of the Cameroonian government.", "post_id": 39331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 195, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win." }, { "id": 39326, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "short_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "url_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "slug": "fide-grand-swiss-2025", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739008Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:37:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-30T12:51:49.018270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:41:45.181121Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38677, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739502Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a player other than one of the top 10 seeds wins the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756558298.831931, "end_time": 1759128693.22, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756558298.831931, "end_time": 1759128693.22, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2651525150628087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke" }, { "id": 39324, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "short_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "url_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-guard-shoot-a-civilian", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605211Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:42:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T03:30:56.949075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:43:34.230826Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đď¸", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38675, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605645Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, during Donald Trumpâs 2025â2029 presidential term, a civilian located on U.S. soil is shot by a National Guard member while deployed for domestic operations.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"shot\" means being struck by a live round that was discharged from a firearm.\n\nIf Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, and no qualifying incident has occurred, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "post_id": 39324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756956646.056989, "end_time": 1764729289.123, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756956646.056989, "end_time": 1764729289.123, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6568518684008967 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1053471352098705 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force." }, { "id": 39322, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T17:15:09.059013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-27T16:47:11.150962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "â˘ď¸", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:25:15.479166Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T09:25:15.479166Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38673, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561729Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757006098.438712, "end_time": 1758985737.3, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757006098.438712, "end_time": 1758985737.3, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.16585935347511305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 1.1582778382571375, 0.4411588324588233, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.225425551112417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)" }, { "id": 39314, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "short_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "url_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "slug": "us-undergraduate-enrollment-decline-by-10-from-2024-to-2030", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.831789Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T02:06:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T19:47:58.638817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T02:13:28.335952Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 38667, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.832255Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Centerâs \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for Fall 2030, the total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting post-secondary institutions in the United States falls by 10% or more from the Fall 2024 levels, according to the [National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/).\n\nThe baseline undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2024 is 15,955,978 students, according to [<u>NSC Research Center data</u>](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/researchcenter/viz/CTEEFall2024dashboard/CTEEFall2024) (which reflects a 4.7% increase of \\~716,000 students from Fall 2023). Accordingly, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the total undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2030 is less than 14,360,381.", "fine_print": "This question refers to total undergraduate enrollment across all institution types (public, private nonprofit, and private for-profit, and two-year and four-year programs) and attendance statuses (full-time and part-time) across the United States.\n\nIf NSC data is unavailable, this question may resolve using data from the [National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha). In this case, resolution will be determined only when official enrollment data for Fall 2030 is published and verified by NCES. Provisional or estimated data will not be used unless it is the final available data by December 31, 2031.", "post_id": 39314, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757015268.199, "end_time": 1773070045.58, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757015268.199, "end_time": 1773070045.58, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48985661738298303 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1741106786487336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8312235634166666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Centerâs \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability." } ] }
