Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6208, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40332, "title": "Will FOXA's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "short_title": "FOXA's close price rises?", "url_title": "FOXA's close price rises?", "slug": "foxas-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:51.746342Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T03:10:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T04:41:00.147603Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:51.992021Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T19:20:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39879, "title": "Will FOXA's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-14?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:51.746777Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T19:20:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T04:40:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fox Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FOXA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:35) is 57.27. You can find more information about Fox Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOXA\n\nFox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators, telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms. Its Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising-supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates full power broadcast television stations, including duopolies and other digital platforms. This segment also produces content for third parties. The Credible segment engages in the consumer finance marketplace. Its FOX Studio Lot segment provides television and film production services along with office space, studio operation services, and all operations of the facility. Fox Corporation was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FOXA\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FOXA. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-14, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40332, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760416395.230001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760416395.230001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5311021505376344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 9.0, 5.0, 9.0, 22.0, 6.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fox Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FOXA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:35) is 57.27. You can find more information about Fox Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOXA\n\nFox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators, telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms. Its Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising-supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates full power broadcast television stations, including duopolies and other digital platforms. This segment also produces content for third parties. The Credible segment engages in the consumer finance marketplace. Its FOX Studio Lot segment provides television and film production services along with office space, studio operation services, and all operations of the facility. Fox Corporation was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FOXA\"}}`" }, { "id": 40330, "title": "Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?", "short_title": "Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?", "url_title": "Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?", "slug": "will-tesla-tsla-beat-quarterly-earnings", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:50.861593Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T01:40:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T03:11:00.279217Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:51.098332Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T01:40:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39877, "title": "Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:50.862060Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T01:40:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T03:10:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"5e38c6e6-2e7d-4ddd-9e7e-09c5923d5024\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Tesla is estimated to release earnings on October 22, 2025. The Street consensus estimate for Tesla’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.50. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tesla reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.50 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf Tesla releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.)\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution.\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40330, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760410420.590826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.463 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.555 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760410420.590826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.463 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.555 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.537, 0.463 ], "means": [ 0.4848977272727273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"5e38c6e6-2e7d-4ddd-9e7e-09c5923d5024\"}}`" }, { "id": 40329, "title": "Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?", "short_title": "Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?", "url_title": "Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?", "slug": "will-alaves-vs-valencia-end-in-a-draw", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:50.431779Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T00:27:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T01:58:00.292642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:50.665274Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T00:27:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39876, "title": "Will Alaves vs. Valencia end in a draw?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:50.432492Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T00:27:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T01:57:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"070c0ec2-8dcb-43a5-8679-b0164914d77d\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "In the upcoming LAL game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00PM ET,\nIf the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If not, this market will resolve to “No”.\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to “Yes”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40329, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760406783.781779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760406783.781779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31311372549019606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 23.0, 0.0, 17.0, 10.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"070c0ec2-8dcb-43a5-8679-b0164914d77d\"}}`" }, { "id": 40327, "title": "Will DASH's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "short_title": "DASH's close price rises?", "url_title": "DASH's close price rises?", "slug": "dashs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:49.569609Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T22:27:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T23:58:00.224955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:49.789961Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T18:00:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T22:27:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39874, "title": "Will DASH's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:49.570027Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T22:27:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T18:00:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T23:57:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "DoorDash, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DASH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:29) is 266.02. You can find more information about DoorDash, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DASH\n\nDoorDash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and independent contractors in the United States and internationally. The company operates DoorDash Marketplace and Wolt Marketplace, which provide various services, such as customer acquisition, demand generation, order fulfillment, merchandising, payment processing, and customer support. It also offers membership programs, including DashPass and Wolt+; and DoorDash Drive On-Demand and Wolt Drive, which are white-label delivery fulfillment services, as well as provides services that help merchants establish online ordering, build branded mobile apps, enable tableside order and pay, and enhance customer support. The company was formerly known as Palo Alto Delivery Inc. and changed its name to DoorDash, Inc. in 2015. DoorDash, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DASH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DASH. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-13, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40327, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760399674.960512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.505 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760399674.960512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.505 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5291236559139787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 6.0, 6.0, 13.0, 6.0, 2.0, 15.0, 7.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "DoorDash, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DASH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:29) is 266.02. You can find more information about DoorDash, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DASH\n\nDoorDash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a commerce platform that connects merchants, consumers, and independent contractors in the United States and internationally. The company operates DoorDash Marketplace and Wolt Marketplace, which provide various services, such as customer acquisition, demand generation, order fulfillment, merchandising, payment processing, and customer support. It also offers membership programs, including DashPass and Wolt+; and DoorDash Drive On-Demand and Wolt Drive, which are white-label delivery fulfillment services, as well as provides services that help merchants establish online ordering, build branded mobile apps, enable tableside order and pay, and enhance customer support. The company was formerly known as Palo Alto Delivery Inc. and changed its name to DoorDash, Inc. in 2015. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"783e0c7e-53df-4d8b-9481-11944ffb48de\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The second round of the Bolivian presidential election is scheduled to take place on 19 October 2025.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian government, specifically the Plurinational Electoral Body (Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, OEP) (https://www.oep.org.bo/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40326, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760398686.691253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760398686.691253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5562992831541217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 1.0, 18.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"783e0c7e-53df-4d8b-9481-11944ffb48de\"}}`" }, { "id": 40324, "title": "AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New): will the cross‑market average be at least $115 on Oct 22, 2025?", "short_title": "AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New): will the cross‑market average be at least $115 on Oct 22, 2025?", "url_title": "AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New): will the cross‑market average be at least $115 on Oct 22, 2025?", "slug": "ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new-will-the-crossmarket-average-be-at-least-115-on-oct-22-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:48.307954Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T19:14:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T20:45:00.311699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:48.552885Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T19:14:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39871, "title": "AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New): will the cross‑market average be at least $115 on Oct 22, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:48.308447Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T19:14:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:44:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bd1a060d-d49f-45d8-9120-6de611f35eb1\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves YES if, at 23:59:59 UTC on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, the simple average of the lowest active listing prices (in USD as displayed) for AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Counter-Strike 2), Exterior: Factory New (non‑StatTrak, non‑Souvenir), across the following marketplaces as shown on PriceEmpire’s aggregated “Main” page is at least $115.00: Buff163, YouPin, CSFloat, Steam Community Market, MarketCSGO, ShadowPay, SkinPort, WhiteMarket, HaloSkins, and CSMoney.\n\nCalculation details:\n- For each listed marketplace, use the lowest active listing price for the specified item/condition as displayed on PriceEmpire at the resolution time.\n- If a listed marketplace has no active listing shown for the item at that moment, exclude that marketplace from both the sum and the count (i.e., average over the markets with a valid lowest listing shown).\n- Ignore shipping, fees, and taxes; use the displayed listing price only. No outlier exclusions.\n- Round the computed average to the nearest cent; values rounding to $115.00 count as meeting the threshold.\n\nOnly the snapshot at the specified time is relevant. If PriceEmpire or the relevant aggregated page is unavailable at the resolution time, this market resolves NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40324, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760388009.153133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760388009.153133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3738617021276597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bd1a060d-d49f-45d8-9120-6de611f35eb1\"}}`" }, { "id": 40323, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-government-stock-in-semiconductor-companies-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:47.879091Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T18:38:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T20:09:00.236924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:48.113307Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T06:05:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T18:38:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39870, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:47.879511Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T18:38:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T06:05:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T20:08:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 06:05:35 is higher than 11.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40323, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760385855.937429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760385855.937429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3385073260073261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`" }, { "id": 40322, "title": "Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20?", "short_title": "Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20?", "url_title": "Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20?", "slug": "will-brentford-win-on-2025-10-20", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:47.451953Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T18:03:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T19:34:00.162803Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:47.683536Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T18:03:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39869, "title": "Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:47.452607Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T18:03:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T19:33:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"9b7b0a9c-dbf3-4f17-a1d0-e05b1275839a\"}}`" }, { "id": 40317, "title": "Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20?", "short_title": "Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20?", "url_title": "Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20?", "slug": "will-udinese-win-on-2025-10-20", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:45.274824Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T14:39:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T16:10:00.188888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:45.506592Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T14:39:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39864, "title": "Will Udinese win on 2025-10-20?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:45.275235Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T14:39:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:09:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"69ea17a8-862f-4026-9b72-2a51838c81ec\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "In the upcoming SEA game, scheduled for October 20 at 2:45PM ET,\nIf Udinese wins, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\nIf Udinese loses, this market will resolve to “No”.\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve “No”.\nThis market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40317, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760369860.81784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760369860.81784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.635, 0.365 ], "means": [ 0.37602688172043003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 16.0, 4.0, 6.0, 7.0, 1.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"69ea17a8-862f-4026-9b72-2a51838c81ec\"}}`" }, { "id": 40316, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:44.713308Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T14:31:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T16:02:00.301237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:45.079539Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T17:31:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T14:31:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39863, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:44.713853Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T14:31:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T17:31:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T16:01:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822). If the community prediction on 2025-10-23 17:31:20 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40316, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760370866.668272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760370866.668272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2868882978723404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40314, "title": "Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?", "short_title": "Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?", "url_title": "Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?", "slug": "will-celta-vigo-vs-real-sociedad-end-in-a-draw", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:43.873190Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T13:37:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T15:08:00.325949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:44.096549Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T13:37:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39861, "title": "Will Celta Vigo vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:43.873622Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T13:37:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T15:07:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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If not, this market will resolve to “No”.\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to “Yes”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40314, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760367053.662069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760367053.662069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3998998226950354 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 6.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"1e6d0eae-ac96-44bf-94ce-cf1ef359da42\"}}`" }, { "id": 40312, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.984638Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T12:37:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T14:08:00.177132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:43.217027Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T20:17:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T12:37:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39859, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-10-22 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.985110Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T12:37:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T20:17:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T14:07:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481\n- Original question title: Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief ([PEPFAR](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n> \n> * the initiative being terminated.\n> * the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PEPFAR no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.  \n> * the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Because PEPFAR was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n> * Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n> * PEPFAR being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global AIDS/HIV prevention and treatment remains intact within the same program.\n\nOriginal background: \n> PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n> \n> On January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n> \n> After a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n> \n> According to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n> \n> 1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n> 2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n> 3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n> 4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35481,\"question_id\":34948,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481). If the community prediction on 2025-10-22 20:17:55 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40312, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760363726.561557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760363726.561557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32945390070922 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 24.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481\n- Original question title: Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief ([PEPFAR](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n> \n> * the initiative being terminated.\n> * the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PEPFAR no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.  \n> * the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Because PEPFAR was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n> * Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n> * PEPFAR being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global AIDS/HIV prevention and treatment remains intact within the same program.\n\nOriginal background: \n> PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n> \n> On January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n> \n> After a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n> \n> According to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n> \n> 1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n> 2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n> 3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n> 4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35481,\"question_id\":34948,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 40311, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.532769Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T11:36:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T13:07:00.189123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.781915Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T20:00:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T11:36:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39858, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.533468Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T11:36:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T20:00:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T13:06:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671). If the community prediction on 2025-10-23 20:00:28 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40311, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760358788.289051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760358788.289051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34253546099290777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40310, "title": "Pecharunt ex #93 (Shrouded Fable SAR): will PriceCharting’s PSA 10 price be ≥ $55 on Oct 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Pecharunt ex #93 (Shrouded Fable SAR): will PriceCharting’s PSA 10 price be ≥ $55 on Oct 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Pecharunt ex #93 (Shrouded Fable SAR): will PriceCharting’s PSA 10 price be ≥ $55 on Oct 20, 2025?", "slug": "pecharunt-ex-93-shrouded-fable-sar-will-pricechartings-psa-10-price-be-55-on-oct-20-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.084532Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T10:12:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T11:43:00.198443Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.319483Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T10:12:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39857, "title": "Pecharunt ex #93 (Shrouded Fable SAR): will PriceCharting’s PSA 10 price be ≥ $55 on Oct 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:42.084994Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T10:12:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-23T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:42:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"246ff240-fcda-4da2-9b45-847ed07e346a\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution source: https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-shrouded-fable/pecharunt-ex-93\n\nResolves YES if, at 23:59 UTC on October 20, 2025, the value displayed next to “PSA 10” on the above PriceCharting product page is $55.00 or higher. Otherwise NO.\n\nClarifications:\n- Use the exact USD amount shown for the “PSA 10” grade on the page at the resolution time (cents included; no rounding).\n- Only the specified page and the “PSA 10” field are relevant; ignore other grades, charts, or external sources.\n- If the page is temporarily unavailable exactly at 23:59 UTC, resolve based on the first successful page load between 23:59 and 00:10 UTC on October 20–21, 2025. If the page remains inaccessible or the “PSA 10” field is absent for the entire window, resolve NO.\n- If the URL structure changes but the product page is clearly and unambiguously accessible via redirect to the same card, use the redirected page.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40310, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760354361.375723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760354361.375723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3977258064516129 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"246ff240-fcda-4da2-9b45-847ed07e346a\"}}`" }, { "id": 40309, "title": "Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20?", "short_title": "Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20?", "url_title": "Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20?", "slug": "will-west-ham-win-on-2025-10-20", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:41.592224Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T09:52:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T11:23:00.215591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:41.866860Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T09:52:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39856, "title": "Will West Ham win on 2025-10-20?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:41.592811Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T09:52:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T11:22:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7ef59ee3-a945-418a-b225-196d0751724c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "In the upcoming EPL game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00PM ET,\nIf West Ham wins, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\nIf West Ham loses, this market will resolve to “No”.\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve “No”.\nThis market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40309, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760352596.00478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760352596.00478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.32591039426523305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7ef59ee3-a945-418a-b225-196d0751724c\"}}`" }, { "id": 40306, "title": "Will IVZ's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "short_title": "IVZ's close price rises?", "url_title": "IVZ's close price rises?", "slug": "ivzs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:40.192245Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T08:36:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T10:07:00.232675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:40.433238Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T23:36:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T08:36:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39853, "title": "Will IVZ's market close price on 2025-10-24 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:40.192741Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T08:36:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T23:36:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:06:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Invesco Ltd. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IVZ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:40) is 22.47. You can find more information about Invesco Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IVZ\n\nInvesco Ltd. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm provides its services to retail clients, institutional clients, high-net worth clients, public entities, corporations, unions, non-profit organizations, endowments, foundations, pension funds, financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm also launches equity, commodity, fixed income, multi-asset, and balanced mutual funds for its clients. It launches equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and balanced exchange-traded funds. The firm also launches and manages private funds. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe. The firm also invests in alternative markets, such as commodities and currencies. For the equity portion of its portfolio, it invests in growth and value stocks of large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap companies. For the fixed income portion of its portfolio, the firm invests in convertibles, government bonds, municipal bonds, treasury securities, and cash. It also invests in short term and intermediate term bonds, investment grade and high yield bonds, taxable and tax-free bonds, senior secured loans, and structured securities such as asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The firm employs absolute return, global macro, and long/short strategies. It employs quantitative analysis to make its investments. The firm was formerly known as Invesco Plc, AMVESCAP plc, Amvesco plc, Invesco PLC, Invesco MIM, and H. Lotery & Co. Ltd. Invesco Ltd. was founded in 1935 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia with an additional office in Hamilton, Bermuda.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IVZ\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IVZ. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-13, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40306, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760348252.200727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760348252.200727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5092074468085106 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 14.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 7.0, 6.0, 17.0, 7.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Invesco Ltd. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IVZ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:40) is 22.47. You can find more information about Invesco Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IVZ\n\nInvesco Ltd. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm provides its services to retail clients, institutional clients, high-net worth clients, public entities, corporations, unions, non-profit organizations, endowments, foundations, pension funds, financial institutions, and sovereign wealth funds. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm also launches equity, commodity, fixed income, multi-asset, and balanced mutual funds for its clients. It launches equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and balanced exchange-traded funds. The firm also launches and manages private funds. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe. The firm also invests in alternative markets, such as commodities and currencies. For the equity portion of its portfolio, it invests in growth and value stocks of large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap companies. For the fixed income portion of its portfolio, the firm invests in convertibles, government bonds, municipal bonds, treasury securities, and cash. It also invests in short term and intermediate term bonds, investment grade and high yield bonds, taxable and tax-free bonds, senior secured loans, and structured securities such as asset-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The firm employs absolute return, global macro, and long/short strategies. It employs quantitative analysis to make its investments. The firm was formerly known as Invesco Plc, AMVESCAP plc, Amvesco plc, Invesco PLC, Invesco MIM, and H. Lotery & Co. Ltd. Invesco Ltd. was founded in 1935 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia with an additional office in Hamilton, Bermuda.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IVZ\"}}`" }, { "id": 40305, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 69.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:39.218008Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T08:05:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T09:36:00.230702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:39.774023Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T04:34:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T08:05:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39852, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 69.00% on 2025-10-24 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:39.218470Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T08:05:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T04:34:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T09:35:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 69.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.69}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756). If the community prediction on 2025-10-24 04:34:59 is higher than 69.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40305, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760346011.113688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760346011.113688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.635, 0.365 ], "means": [ 0.407081560283688 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 22.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-11: 69.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.69}}`" }, { "id": 40304, "title": "Will SWK's market close price on 2025-10-25 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "short_title": "SWK's close price rises?", "url_title": "SWK's close price rises?", "slug": "swks-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:38.752246Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T07:09:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T08:40:00.292378Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:39.007468Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T00:01:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T07:09:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32837, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-13T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-08T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-17T07:45:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-11T22:36:32.448448Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T07:06:03.100515Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39851, "title": "Will SWK's market close price on 2025-10-25 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-13?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T23:32:38.752743Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T07:09:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T00:01:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:39:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is SWK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:39) is 64.43. You can find more information about Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWK\n\nStanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company's Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners, such as nail guns, nails, staplers and staples, and concrete and masonry anchors; corded and cordless electric power tools; hand-held vacuums, paint tools, and cleaning appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products. This segment sells its products under the DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, CUB ADET, BLACK+DECKER, and HUSTLER brands through retailers, third-party distributors, independent dealers, and a direct sales force. Its Industrial segment provides threaded fasteners, blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, high-strength structural fasteners, axel swage, latches, heat shields, pins, couplings, fitting, and other engineered products; and attachments used on excavators and handheld tools. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and third-party distributors to the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"SWK\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of SWK. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-13, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40304, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760343613.150248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760343613.150248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.4954365350877195 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 13.0, 3.0, 5.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is SWK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-11 23:24:39) is 64.43. You can find more information about Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWK\n\nStanley Black & Decker, Inc. provides hand tools, power tools, outdoor products, and related accessories in the United States, Canada, Other Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company's Tools & Outdoor segment offers professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, including drills, impact wrenches and drivers, grinders, saws, routers, concrete prep and placement tools, and sanders; pneumatic tools and fasteners, such as nail guns, nails, staplers and staples, and concrete and masonry anchors; corded and cordless electric power tools; hand-held vacuums, paint tools, and cleaning appliances; leveling and layout tools, planes, hammers, demolition tools, clamps, vises, knives, saws, chisels, and industrial and automotive tools; drill, screwdriver, router bits, abrasives, saw blades, and threading products; tool boxes, sawhorses, medical cabinets, and engineered storage solutions; and electric and gas-powered lawn and garden products. This segment sells its products under the DEWALT, CRAFTSMAN, CUB ADET, BLACK+DECKER, and HUSTLER brands through retailers, third-party distributors, independent dealers, and a direct sales force. Its Industrial segment provides threaded fasteners, blind rivets and tools, blind inserts and tools, drawn arc weld studs and systems, engineered plastic and mechanical fasteners, self-piercing riveting systems, precision nut running systems, micro fasteners, high-strength structural fasteners, axel swage, latches, heat shields, pins, couplings, fitting, and other engineered products; and attachments used on excavators and handheld tools. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and third-party distributors to the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. The company was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"SWK\"}}`" }, { "id": 40303, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trumps-100-tariff-on-china-take-effect-on-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-11T21:09:50.819086Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T14:48:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:16:38.827253Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-13T14:48:59.504432Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:09:08.574776Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:09:08.574776Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39850, "title": "Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-11T21:09:50.819528Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) almost 900 points after US President Donald J. Trump [put](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html) an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting on November 1, 2025, adding that the US would start blocking sales of \"any and all critical software\" to China. President Trump's tariff threat came in response to China [announcing](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains) new restrictions on rare earth and magnet exports. Trump and the paramount leader of China, Xi Jinping, are [planning](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/trump-threatens-to-nix-meeting-with-chinas-xi-jinping-over-trade-tensions) to meet on October 31st at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, though Trump has threatened to cancel the meeting.\n\nAccording to the international law firm of[ Reed Smith](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/), baseline tariffs of 10% are currently implemented, with other tariffs ranging to 15% and 20% on \"Fentanyl\"-related products. Previous announced tariffs, such as a 200% tariff on China [threatened](https://cepr.net/publications/trump-proposes-200-percent-tariff-on-imports-from-china-xi-pushes-for-300-percent/) in August 2025, have been delayed. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on November 1, 2025, the United States has any implemented tariffs of 100% or more on the People's Republic of China that were not already in place as of October 13, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). One such credible source may be Reed Smith's [Trump 2.0 tariff tracker](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761354988.419459, "end_time": 1761683106.927, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761354988.419459, "end_time": 1761683106.927, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.1487507350489749 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1335438016632584, 0.0, 0.0, 1.585578570782796, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average [dropped](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html) almost 900 points after US President Donald J. Trump [put](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html) an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting on November 1, 2025, adding that the US would start blocking sales of \"any and all critical software\" to China. President Trump's tariff threat came in response to China [announcing](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains) new restrictions on rare earth and magnet exports. Trump and the paramount leader of China, Xi Jinping, are [planning](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/10/trump-threatens-to-nix-meeting-with-chinas-xi-jinping-over-trade-tensions) to meet on October 31st at the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea, though Trump has threatened to cancel the meeting.\n\nAccording to the international law firm of[ Reed Smith](https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/10/10/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/), baseline tariffs of 10% are currently implemented, with other tariffs ranging to 15% and 20% on \"Fentanyl\"-related products. Previous announced tariffs, such as a 200% tariff on China [threatened](https://cepr.net/publications/trump-proposes-200-percent-tariff-on-imports-from-china-xi-pushes-for-300-percent/) in August 2025, have been delayed. " }, { "id": 40301, "title": "Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-stock-market-go-down-by-5-in-any-week-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-10T23:10:10.141048Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T12:47:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T04:52:34.033669Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-10T23:10:51.528926Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-11T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39848, "title": "Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-10T23:10:10.141414Z", "open_time": "2025-10-11T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T12:47:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T12:47:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nWeekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n\n| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n| ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n| 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n| 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n| 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n| 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n| 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n| 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n| 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n| 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n| 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n| 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n| 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n| 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n| 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n| 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n| 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n| 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n| 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n| 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n| 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n| 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n| 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n| 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n| 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n| 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n| 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n| 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n| 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n| 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n| 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n| 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n| 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n| 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n| 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n| 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n| 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n| 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n| 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n| 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n| 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n| 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n| 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. ", "fine_print": "The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n\nIf Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n\nStock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.", "post_id": 40301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761108743.356311, "end_time": 1761626749.425, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761108743.356311, "end_time": 1761626749.425, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.48186531734990146 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nWeekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n\n| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n| ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n| 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n| 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n| 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n| 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n| 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n| 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n| 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n| 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n| 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n| 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n| 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n| 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n| 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n| 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n| 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n| 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n| 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n| 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n| 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n| 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n| 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n| 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n| 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n| 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n| 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n| 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n| 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n| 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n| 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n| 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n| 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n| 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n| 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n| 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n| 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n| 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n| 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n| 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n| 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n| 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n| 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |" } ] }
