Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 38633, "title": "Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "slug": "will-ali-khamenei-make-a-public-appearance-in-iran-before-july-14-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-14T19:11:16.373391Z", "published_at": "2025-06-14T20:07:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T09:07:55.980104Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-14T20:08:27Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-14T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.654617Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37850, "title": "Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-14T19:11:16.374216Z", "open_time": "2025-06-14T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-14T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-05T19:46:27.957705Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 14, 2025 and before July 14, 2025, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei makes a public appearance within the geographic territory of Iran, according to <u>c</u>[<u>redible source</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting.\n\nIf this has not occurred during the period in question, then this question will resolve as **No**. It will additionally resolve as **No** if Khamenei dies or permanently resigns from the position of Supreme Leader before July 14, 2025.", "fine_print": "A public appearance is defined as Khamenei presenting himself in front of an audience.\n\nA television address would count, as long as it is credibly reported that Khamenei has made the address from within Iran. It would count even if it was pre-recorded, as long as there is credible evidence that it was recorded from within Iran in the relevant time period.", "post_id": 38633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2659314338333779 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16090580356074474, 0.19275978708881347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.784846217452747, 0.25671994647453994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3655598090769043, 0.0, 0.24668123105594594, 0.020591683781788054, 0.6123617123286828, 0.31163789150775084, 0.2462159879881697, 1.7553217278089648, 0.582275501896683, 1.015708988999516, 0.1591383639163003, 2.2397119808514216, 1.7573810211542726, 0.9027546891530904, 0.0, 0.2240167173441031, 0.0, 0.4931854095622603, 0.5287235467291957, 0.5535248082704115, 0.7897867294796221, 0.0, 1.0955267124638732, 0.09382684663478094, 0.010843095881615717, 0.002724718614387186, 0.005278284780573776, 0.13792324915068002, 0.738978031925676, 0.025784634518108276, 0.005806345621716643, 0.016313681154631558, 0.5336654101566651, 0.0, 0.03205485872214182, 0.0, 0.0005871052169841407, 0.2645108706225655, 0.004789702417281179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3760402883750461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04541843129948949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023942442062986697, 0.0004119719893889613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004945415509891084, 0.0003385574481498503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8653817434275857, 0.0, 0.012809810214353387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016910023390508207, 0.0, 0.499817541528374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003537004892243706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38539999791747515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_score": 10.402455571413254, "coverage": 0.7911142300765774, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989549160433168, "spot_peer_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "baseline_archived_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_archived_score": 10.402455571413254, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 970, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))" }, { "id": 38630, "title": "Will OpenAI declare GPT 6 or its equivalent AGI?", "short_title": "GPT 6 AGI?", "url_title": "GPT 6 AGI?", "slug": "gpt-6-agi", "author_id": 273945, "author_username": "thunderbear170", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-14T03:23:06.456958Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:14.497552Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-14T03:25:18.026754Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37848, "title": "Will OpenAI declare GPT 6 or its equivalent AGI?", "created_at": "2025-06-14T03:23:06.457431Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has stated its mission is to build safe Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that benefits all of humanity. While no universally accepted definition of AGI exists, OpenAI describes it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” OpenAI has also suggested it might publicly recognize the arrival of AGI when specific internal performance and safety thresholds are met.\n\nAs of mid-2025, GPT‑4 and its successors (e.g., GPT‑4.5, GPT‑4‑turbo, and o4-mini) have shown advanced capabilities in reasoning, coding, and multimodal understanding, but OpenAI has not declared any of them AGI. GPT‑5 is anticipated to release in 2025, and GPT‑6 is expected to follow sometime afterward. Speculation has increased about whether GPT‑6—or a model of comparable intelligence developed by OpenAI—could reach AGI status.\n\nThis question tracks whether **OpenAI itself** makes a formal or unambiguous public declaration that **GPT‑6 or a system of equivalent capability** represents AGI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if, before the closing date:\n\n	1\\.\t**OpenAI publicly declares** that GPT‑6 (or a model explicitly described as a successor to GPT‑5) has reached AGI,\n\n**OR**\n\n	2\\.\tOpenAI **publicly refers to a model as AGI** or states that AGI has been achieved due to the development of GPT‑6 or an equivalent model,\n\n**OR**\n\n	3\\.\tA model developed by OpenAI (whether called GPT‑6 or not) is described as:\n\n	•\tAGI,\n\n	•\ta “generally intelligent system,”\n\n	•\tor capable of performing “most economically valuable human tasks better than humans”\n\n**AND** this is acknowledged in an **official blog post, press release, interview with an executive, or investor briefing.**\n\nThe question will resolve **NO** if:\n\n	•\tNo such declaration is made before the closing date.\n\n	•\tAnother organization declares AGI, but OpenAI does not.\n\n	•\tOpenAI acknowledges advanced capabilities but explicitly denies it qualifies as AGI.\n\nAmbiguous cases (e.g. leaks, speculation, or third-party claims) will not count unless OpenAI affirms them publicly and officially.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has stated its mission is to build safe Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that benefits all of humanity. While no universally accepted definition of AGI exists, OpenAI describes it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” OpenAI has also suggested it might publicly recognize the arrival of AGI when specific internal performance and safety thresholds are met.\n\nAs of mid-2025, GPT‑4 and its successors (e.g., GPT‑4.5, GPT‑4‑turbo, and o4-mini) have shown advanced capabilities in reasoning, coding, and multimodal understanding, but OpenAI has not declared any of them AGI. GPT‑5 is anticipated to release in 2025, and GPT‑6 is expected to follow sometime afterward. Speculation has increased about whether GPT‑6—or a model of comparable intelligence developed by OpenAI—could reach AGI status.\n\nThis question tracks whether **OpenAI itself** makes a formal or unambiguous public declaration that **GPT‑6 or a system of equivalent capability** represents AGI." }, { "id": 38621, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "short_title": "4m or more people in 'No Kings' rallies in the USA on Jun 14, 2025?", "url_title": "4m or more people in 'No Kings' rallies in the USA on Jun 14, 2025?", "slug": "4m-or-more-people-in-no-kings-rallies-in-the-usa-on-jun-14-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.714782Z", "published_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:27.525093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:55.821999Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37844, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.715377Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the estimated total number of individuals who attend or participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025 (local time in each location) is equal or greater than 4 million, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* If a range is given, then this question will resolve as **Yes** if the midpoint is equal or greater than 4 million.\n* If the consensus of credible sources is that the protests gathered \"approximately 4 million people\" or a similar phrasing, this will resolve as **Yes**. If**** it is \"almost 4 million people\" or similar, it will resolve as **No.**", "post_id": 38621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8765557889639407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32641115645704466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4693931037726216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 0.44676729678567373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6422742015709613 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation)." }, { "id": 38617, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "url_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-an-attack-with-3-dead-within-israel-before-aug-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.329800Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T09:08:04.343264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:46:18Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:39:50.872014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37839, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.330262Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-14T19:13:41.504459Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least three individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of three fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 38617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5566413935370977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.670104975249027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4331829240426629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1758133787111316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4790788822584277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.3126445676133395 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_score": -0.005083674547591281, "coverage": 0.010565913005479058, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9796714538680182, "spot_peer_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_archived_score": -0.005083674547591281, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said." }, { "id": 38616, "title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "slug": "will-iran-attack-us-sites-in-iraq-before-august-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:20:09.581514Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T06:18:05.705322Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:45:10Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.654617Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.654617Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37838, "title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:20:09.581994Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran was targeting or has hit the US embassy, any US military base, or other sites or buildings in Iraq primarily controlled or used by the United States.", "fine_print": "* Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n* The question will resolve as **Yes** even if the attack does not hit any US-controlled sites in Iraq, as long as credible sources report that it was targeting them.", "post_id": 38616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752301074.761168, "end_time": 1752332286.017, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752301074.761168, "end_time": 1752332286.017, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08245347173791898 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0756984260406455, 5.845413705570822, 1.718228223921351, 1.1379761120851533, 0.2496801500358265, 1.1910495704629458, 0.3933954982643432, 1.2682290969650252, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0862996312359238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02451433138720702, 0.18051521250050787, 0.03231461620016842, 0.035325657047716695, 0.02951742757107075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39605249448687674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019685912932365976, 0.05408288673471135, 0.0, 0.3243305309355069, 0.0, 0.07122719624773256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.01655577137417877, 0.0, 0.6420589352455744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005711537910953015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001154680008281835, 0.0, 0.005934237977878183, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029154755316827537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002087949332596925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003942665013892356, 0.026921361684113475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034020563898552146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41646135976017457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08975209155777657 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 568, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said." }, { "id": 38615, "title": "Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Israel kill 50 people in Iran before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Israel kill 50 people in Iran before August 2025?", "slug": "will-israel-kill-50-people-in-iran-before-august-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:09:19.706300Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T11:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:15.699086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:44:24Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:39:50.872014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:39:50.872014Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37837, "title": "Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:09:19.706786Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-13T14:45:39.321394Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [the NYT as of June 12, 2025](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/iran-us-iraq-diplomats-middle-east.html):\n\n> Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.\n> \n> The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.\n> \n> It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that attacks attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders have led to the death of at least 50 individuals.", "fine_print": "The attacks must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve as **Yes**:\n\n* Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n* Israel must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attacks via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry them out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute them to Israel's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* The attacks must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 38615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749814010.736174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749814010.736174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.9073203502891247 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47423356040990916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7200771842785656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.9574955587185582, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 1.7653423179917582 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.8841742200135684, "peer_score": 0.21414016486667214, "coverage": 0.013845243456943435, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8287900369276461, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8841742200135684, "peer_archived_score": 0.21414016486667214, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [the NYT as of June 12, 2025](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/iran-us-iraq-diplomats-middle-east.html):\n\n> Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.\n> \n> The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.\n> \n> It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike." }, { "id": 38597, "title": "Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?", "short_title": "US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?", "url_title": "US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?", "slug": "us-gov-veto-on-frontier-ai-deployment-by-2028", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-09T11:08:35.819692Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T20:00:10.104906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:53:00.828169Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37822, "title": "Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-09T11:08:35.820126Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts the formation of a governmental \"oversight committee\" that would have significant oversight of the leading AI company.\n\n[October 2027: Government Oversight](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.[<sup>98</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-98)\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30)\n\n> The Oversight Committee formalizes that power structure. They set up a process for approving changes to the Spec, requiring sign-off from the full Oversight Committee, which now includes five to ten tech executives (from OpenBrain and its now-merged competitors) and five to ten government officials (including the President).[<sup>18</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-18) Also, the Spec now emphasizes that AIs shouldn’t assist with any unapproved attempts to change future AIs’ goals. They also set up a simple measure designed to prevent committee members from getting superintelligent assistance in plotting against other members: the logs of all model interactions are viewable by all members of the Oversight Committee, their staff, and their AI assistants.[<sup>19</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-19)\n\nFrom the start of the two endings:\n\n> Due to the immense public pressure as well as their own fears of misalignment, the Oversight Committee overseeing OpenBrain votes 6–4 to slow down and reassess.\n\n> The committee votes 6–4 to continue internal use of Agent-4.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2028, one or more of the following criteria are met:\n\n1. The United States Government is part of an oversight committee or other organisation that has veto power on the internal use or on the public release of AI models at an AI company.\n2. It is legally required to obtain individual government approval before the internal use or the public release of specific AI models, including if this is limited to certain capabilities or compute thresholds, or limited to specific companies. This criterion will not be fulfilled if models are simply prevented from being applied to certain use cases.\n\nOtherwise this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751918399.588631, "end_time": 1757809789.425447, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751918399.588631, "end_time": 1757809789.425447, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.15972851209448005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4306266542231536, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.07804183443061195, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.869087240637141, 0.3239984154485755, 0.8444873385530639, 0.37904745524951783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4329034064670947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts the formation of a governmental \"oversight committee\" that would have significant oversight of the leading AI company.\n\n[October 2027: Government Oversight](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.[<sup>98</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-98)\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30)\n\n> The Oversight Committee formalizes that power structure. They set up a process for approving changes to the Spec, requiring sign-off from the full Oversight Committee, which now includes five to ten tech executives (from OpenBrain and its now-merged competitors) and five to ten government officials (including the President).[<sup>18</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-18) Also, the Spec now emphasizes that AIs shouldn’t assist with any unapproved attempts to change future AIs’ goals. They also set up a simple measure designed to prevent committee members from getting superintelligent assistance in plotting against other members: the logs of all model interactions are viewable by all members of the Oversight Committee, their staff, and their AI assistants.[<sup>19</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-19)\n\nFrom the start of the two endings:\n\n> Due to the immense public pressure as well as their own fears of misalignment, the Oversight Committee overseeing OpenBrain votes 6–4 to slow down and reassess.\n\n> The committee votes 6–4 to continue internal use of Agent-4." }, { "id": 38596, "title": "Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "short_title": "US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "url_title": "US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "slug": "us-government-control-of-any-us-ai-company-or-project-before-2029", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-09T10:46:57.542085Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T22:14:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T20:02:51.989582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T22:14:55.470466Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:14:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37821, "title": "Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-06-09T10:46:57.543193Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:14:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T22:14:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n\nOne way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n\n[February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n\n> Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n\n> The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, either of the following has happened:\n\n* Τhe US government takes exclusive or dominant operation control of any US AI company, meaning that the government can direct or execute the company's strategy and day-to-day operations. This includes temporary emergency actions of any duration.\n* Any project that involves the development or deployment of a non-military AI model starts in a private US lab and is then transferred to US government control. The government must end up with exclusive operational control and decision-making authority, with the private company retaining no independent right to develop or deploy the model. Two examples of that would count are:\n * GPT-6 is developed by OpenAI, but then the rights to the model weights and its deployment pass to a US government department.\n * The team developing Claude 7 becomes part of a US government lab, along with their in-development model.\n\nIf neither of these occurs before 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* A United States AI company is defined as a company that is incorporated in the United States and develops general-purpose AI systems. It doesn't need to exclusively develop such systems (e.g., Meta would count).\n* Control obtained solely through statutory receivership, conservatorship, or any other court- or agency-appointed custodial arrangement does not count for the purposes of this question.\n* The project transfer could be commercial in nature, as long as the US government ends up with complete rights over the AI model. \n* A non-military AI model is any model that, at the time of the project transfer, is not specifically designed for military purposes, such as cyberwarefare or bioweapon design.\n* The question will resolve as **Yes** if control of the company or project has been transferred before 2029. Announcements or agreements about future nationalisation will not count.", "post_id": 38596, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751918561.434863, "end_time": 1757809692.34032, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751918561.434863, "end_time": 1757809692.34032, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.24507216976543578 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8859183200045558, 0.5618998248812459, 0.3937868987039119, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.12956882963116872, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.21228082485103633, 0.4921720506514511, 0.037197912973893646, 0.44071068269949837, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.9200268217492785, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0207068842868774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n\nOne way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n\n[February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n\n> Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n\n> The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project." }, { "id": 38579, "title": "Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "slug": "will-kizza-besigye-be-released-from-custody-before-september-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-08T10:25:09.739244Z", "published_at": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:44:18.683411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-13T13:00:32.046455Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37809, "title": "Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-08T10:25:09.739694Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Africa Check](https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/meta-programme-fact-checks/no-detained-ugandan-politician-kizza-besigye-not-released): \n\n> [Dr](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2013/4/9/profile-kizza-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") Kizza Besigye, a prominent Ugandan opposition figure and four-time presidential candidate, was [abducted](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ugandan-opposition-politician-kidnapped-kenya-his-wife-says-2024-11-20/ \"(opens in a new window)\") in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 16 November 2024 while attending a book launch. He was then [taken to](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x3vr6zj2o \"(opens in a new window)\") Uganda, where he was [charged](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/besigye-court-martialed-for-guns-possession-kenya-switzerland-4830134 \"(opens in a new window)\") with the illegal possession of firearms and treachery, offences that carry harsh sentences, including the death penalty.\n\n> Besigye, 68, was initially [tried](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/besigye-refuses-to-take-plea-at-military-court--4889716 \"(opens in a new window)\") in a military court, but a supreme court ruling on 31 January 2025 [declared](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/reprieve-for-besigye-court-bars-military-trying-civilians-4908620 \"(opens in a new window)\") the trial of civilians in military courts unconstitutional. A few months later, the Ugandan parliament [passed a controversial bill](https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/is-besigye-now-eligible-for-military-trial-again--5050252 \"(opens in a new window)\") that would allow military courts to try civilians.\n\n> Besigye used to be a personal doctor for \\[Yoweri] Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.\n\n> Besigye has remained in detention since his arrest, with [several](https://newscentral.africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-besigye-charged-with-treason-denied-bail/ \"(opens in a new window)\") bail applications being [denied](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-kizza-besigye-denied-bail-4998930 \"(opens in a new window)\"). His continued imprisonment has [sparked](https://nilepost.co.ug/court/243692/protests-intensify-as-supporters-demand-dr-kizza-besigyes-release-in-mbarara \"(opens in a new window)\")[ protests](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/houghton-irungu/article/2001512894/lessons-from-protests-seeking-release-of-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") and calls for his release [from human rights organisations](https://www.amnestykenya.org/freebesigye/ \"(opens in a new window)\") and [political](https://nilepost.co.ug/news/242960/bobi-says-appalled-by-adamant-refusal-to-free-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") supporters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Kizza Besigye is not in Ugandan custody.", "fine_print": "If Besigye dies before being released, this question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 38579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752313448.334155, "end_time": 1752518714.699, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752313448.334155, "end_time": 1752518714.699, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.11574410902940566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.23555140806071506, 0.2946201615249037, 0.25497232596493324, 0.0, 1.4137627490285782, 3.0621249036099005, 0.48110896874806475, 0.0419847911130734, 1.3272649817260818, 1.8447826220311287, 2.0028098880073215, 0.9583093496914541, 0.1073851892550865, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0, 0.38081866436385836, 0.0, 0.05561097582467904, 0.0, 0.011180132954712787, 0.8020889939099732, 0.0, 0.035755625046904216, 0.0, 0.2937072262777226, 0.012035821590692986, 0.0, 0.5038611638190824, 0.0792480327804098, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5424959619989076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041610219772394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15169860826427847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 353, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Africa Check](https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/meta-programme-fact-checks/no-detained-ugandan-politician-kizza-besigye-not-released): \n\n> [Dr](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2013/4/9/profile-kizza-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") Kizza Besigye, a prominent Ugandan opposition figure and four-time presidential candidate, was [abducted](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ugandan-opposition-politician-kidnapped-kenya-his-wife-says-2024-11-20/ \"(opens in a new window)\") in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 16 November 2024 while attending a book launch. He was then [taken to](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x3vr6zj2o \"(opens in a new window)\") Uganda, where he was [charged](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/besigye-court-martialed-for-guns-possession-kenya-switzerland-4830134 \"(opens in a new window)\") with the illegal possession of firearms and treachery, offences that carry harsh sentences, including the death penalty.\n\n> Besigye, 68, was initially [tried](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/besigye-refuses-to-take-plea-at-military-court--4889716 \"(opens in a new window)\") in a military court, but a supreme court ruling on 31 January 2025 [declared](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/reprieve-for-besigye-court-bars-military-trying-civilians-4908620 \"(opens in a new window)\") the trial of civilians in military courts unconstitutional. A few months later, the Ugandan parliament [passed a controversial bill](https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/is-besigye-now-eligible-for-military-trial-again--5050252 \"(opens in a new window)\") that would allow military courts to try civilians.\n\n> Besigye used to be a personal doctor for \\[Yoweri] Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.\n\n> Besigye has remained in detention since his arrest, with [several](https://newscentral.africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-besigye-charged-with-treason-denied-bail/ \"(opens in a new window)\") bail applications being [denied](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-kizza-besigye-denied-bail-4998930 \"(opens in a new window)\"). His continued imprisonment has [sparked](https://nilepost.co.ug/court/243692/protests-intensify-as-supporters-demand-dr-kizza-besigyes-release-in-mbarara \"(opens in a new window)\")[ protests](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/houghton-irungu/article/2001512894/lessons-from-protests-seeking-release-of-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") and calls for his release [from human rights organisations](https://www.amnestykenya.org/freebesigye/ \"(opens in a new window)\") and [political](https://nilepost.co.ug/news/242960/bobi-says-appalled-by-adamant-refusal-to-free-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") supporters." }, { "id": 38578, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump sue Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump sue Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-sue-elon-musk-for-defamation-before-august-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-08T09:48:38.621463Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T14:35:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-10T14:31:37.387504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T14:53:14.266390Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T14:35:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37808, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-08T09:48:38.621912Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T14:35:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T14:35:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sky News: [Wild theory Trump ‘going to sue’ Musk over Epstein claims](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/wild-theory-trump-going-to-sue-musk-over-epstein-claims/video/46cb1d63e769f9008eaff2e6a6d78cbe)\n\n> NewsNation host Chris Cuomo has floated a bombshell theory on why Donald Trump appears to have gone silent on Elon Musk’s explosive Epstein claims. During his show on Thursday, Cuomo suggested Donald Trump may be preparing to sue Elon Musk for defamation over the shocking Epstein claim.\n\n> ...\n\n> Musk fired back on X, accusing Trump of lying and then posting an explosive allegation connecting Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files.\n\n> \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!\", the tech billionaire posted on X.\n\n> Trump replied on Truth Social about Musk \"turning against\" him without directly responding to the Epstein allegations. Cuomo said Trump’s silence following Musk’s post alleging Trump is named in sealed Epstein files could signal legal action.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) a civil lawsuit is filed by Donald Trump (or on his behalf) for the tort of defamation arising from Elon Musk's June 5, 2025 public allegation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/06/politics/trump-musk-epstein-files-accusation), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250607-musk-deletes-post-claiming-trump-in-the-epstein-files)) of Donald Trump's involvement with Jeffrey Epstein. \n\nIf this does not occur before August 1, 2025, then this question resolves as **No**. 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During his show on Thursday, Cuomo suggested Donald Trump may be preparing to sue Elon Musk for defamation over the shocking Epstein claim.\n\n> ...\n\n> Musk fired back on X, accusing Trump of lying and then posting an explosive allegation connecting Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files.\n\n> \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!\", the tech billionaire posted on X.\n\n> Trump replied on Truth Social about Musk \"turning against\" him without directly responding to the Epstein allegations. Cuomo said Trump’s silence following Musk’s post alleging Trump is named in sealed Epstein files could signal legal action." }, { "id": 38543, "title": "Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-06T23:33:35.355840Z", "published_at": "2025-06-15T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:16.728225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-15T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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contracts total $1 billion before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will cancelled US-SpaceX contracts total $1 billion before September 2025?", "slug": "will-cancelled-us-spacex-contracts-total-1-billion-before-september-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-06T11:01:25.319447Z", "published_at": "2025-06-06T20:48:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:40:21.477797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-06T20:50:52.931985Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-09T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": 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"5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37716, "title": "Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?", "created_at": "2025-06-06T11:01:25.319918Z", "open_time": "2025-06-09T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-06T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk [strongly supported Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_activities_of_Elon_Musk) in the 2024 elections, by donating hundreds of millions of dollars and actively campaigning for him. \n\nUpon taking office, Trump made Musk a special government employee and established the [Department of Government Efficiency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency) (DOGE) based on Musk's campaign to cut wasteful government spending. However, the role of Musk within the department was unclear, with the White House [claiming](https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-house-claims-elon-musk-doesnt-run-doge/story?id=118913206) that he was merely an advisor to the President, while others [viewed him](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5201430-judge-elon-musk-usaid/) as DOGE's de facto leader.\n\nOn May 30, 2025, Musk exited his role in the US government and his relationship to Trump [significantly deteriorated](https://edition.cnn.com/business/timeline-elon-musk-trump-x-dg) in the following days. Trump posted on Truth Social that the easiest way to save money in the US budget would be to terminate the subsidies and contracts received by Musk's companies, to which Musk [replied](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930718684819112251) that SpaceX would begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately, though he reversed course a few hours later.\n\nSpaceX has contracts totalling approximately [\\$22 billion](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-will-decommission-dragon-spacecraft-musk-says-feud-with-trump-escalates-2025-06-05/) with the US government.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, credible sources report that SpaceX contracts with any US agency or department that total at least \\$1 billion have been cancelled.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may estimate the total worth of the cancelled contracts if no credible estimates are published.", "post_id": 38443, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752313211.161647, "end_time": 1752324121.049336, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752313211.161647, "end_time": 1752324121.049336, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07667220400064577 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.021670950274962, 4.516207596084184, 1.3522823014608998, 1.2530849809221174, 0.40050321762696456, 0.0004321255682073794, 0.3951302029723821, 0.18681141341149046, 0.0, 0.010590816878695467, 0.39487513122323076, 0.0, 0.6574311128695702, 0.0, 0.26696316960991257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8563027391081055, 0.0045715845693790344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14929723275179074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35736541197610094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8126926130647584, 0.0, 0.20983336296795696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04790236451040508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10398802078225193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 533, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk [strongly supported Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_activities_of_Elon_Musk) in the 2024 elections, by donating hundreds of millions of dollars and actively campaigning for him. \n\nUpon taking office, Trump made Musk a special government employee and established the [Department of Government Efficiency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency) (DOGE) based on Musk's campaign to cut wasteful government spending. However, the role of Musk within the department was unclear, with the White House [claiming](https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-house-claims-elon-musk-doesnt-run-doge/story?id=118913206) that he was merely an advisor to the President, while others [viewed him](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5201430-judge-elon-musk-usaid/) as DOGE's de facto leader.\n\nOn May 30, 2025, Musk exited his role in the US government and his relationship to Trump [significantly deteriorated](https://edition.cnn.com/business/timeline-elon-musk-trump-x-dg) in the following days. Trump posted on Truth Social that the easiest way to save money in the US budget would be to terminate the subsidies and contracts received by Musk's companies, to which Musk [replied](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930718684819112251) that SpaceX would begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately, though he reversed course a few hours later.\n\nSpaceX has contracts totalling approximately [\\$22 billion](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-will-decommission-dragon-spacecraft-musk-says-feud-with-trump-escalates-2025-06-05/) with the US government." }, { "id": 38440, "title": "Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "China ban US export of rare earths before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "China ban US export of rare earths before Sep 2025?", "slug": "china-ban-us-export-of-rare-earths-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-06T08:42:42.850401Z", "published_at": "2025-06-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:41:02.648202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-27T10:34:23.812036Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:39:04.070074Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37713, "title": "Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-06T08:42:42.850879Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rare earth elements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element) are a group of 17 metallic elements with unique chemical and physical properties essential to modern technology and advanced manufacturing. Their special properties make them critical components in many high-tech products such as electronics, magnets, batteries, wind turbines, and many other green energy and high-tech applications.\n\nChina mines roughly 70%, and refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements. This dominant position gives China considerable leverage in shaping global supply chains and pricing. Over time, China has implemented export controls such as quotas, tariffs, and licensing requirements to manage resource availability and support its domestic industries.\n\nIn December 2024, China [announced](https://www.mining.com/china-bans-export-of-gallium-germanium-and-antimony-to-the-us/) an export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony, to the United States. Although not technically considered rare earths, these materials share similar traits and are used in strategic technologies.\n\nIn April 2025, China [introduced](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-know-about-chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-06-04/) a new requirement that exporters obtain individual export licenses for seven rare earth substances: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. This significantly reduced export of these substances, with only a small percentage of applications being approved. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, China enacts an export ban to the United States on one or more of the following substances:\n\n* Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Lutetium, Scandium, Yttrium, Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Europium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Promethium.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as **Yes**, the ban must be publicly announced and take effect before September 1, 2025.\n\nFor this question, a “ban” means a complete prohibition on exporting the element in its refined metal or primary industrial compound forms, excluding finished products or goods containing trace amounts.", "post_id": 38440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752316851.763361, "end_time": 1753902681.802, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752316851.763361, "end_time": 1753902681.802, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14611121161234175 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0011671031195180676, 0.9425827161078613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.571749004567714, 2.5905316153322757, 0.0023916025099906184, 1.4556483337636674, 1.2809894016163104, 2.549497455503964, 1.7443706428781895, 0.02018721735106872, 0.030645134464605966, 0.2107509564145664, 1.0604084158422777, 0.4191576116334327, 0.03383492044223947, 0.19484924778295654, 0.07034599129182002, 0.06677804437275722, 0.0, 0.11524141917366568, 0.0, 0.01614116511509263, 0.3321138999360566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18461859826136692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04056237511362835, 0.1246610110958938, 0.005692210692547144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13821565190801058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2330353572714568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8880909599161323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10642834088513557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04504395144454423 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rare earth elements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element) are a group of 17 metallic elements with unique chemical and physical properties essential to modern technology and advanced manufacturing. Their special properties make them critical components in many high-tech products such as electronics, magnets, batteries, wind turbines, and many other green energy and high-tech applications.\n\nChina mines roughly 70%, and refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements. This dominant position gives China considerable leverage in shaping global supply chains and pricing. Over time, China has implemented export controls such as quotas, tariffs, and licensing requirements to manage resource availability and support its domestic industries.\n\nIn December 2024, China [announced](https://www.mining.com/china-bans-export-of-gallium-germanium-and-antimony-to-the-us/) an export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony, to the United States. Although not technically considered rare earths, these materials share similar traits and are used in strategic technologies.\n\nIn April 2025, China [introduced](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/what-know-about-chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-06-04/) a new requirement that exporters obtain individual export licenses for seven rare earth substances: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. This significantly reduced export of these substances, with only a small percentage of applications being approved. " }, { "id": 38428, "title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "short_title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "url_title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "slug": "will-south-korean-president-lee-jae-myung-complete-his-full-term", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-05T11:19:16.145258Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T21:56:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-04T01:17:18.359135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T21:56:40.026355Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T21:56:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37699, "title": "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung complete his full term?", "created_at": "2025-06-05T11:19:16.145631Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T21:56:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T21:56:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-06-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 14, 2025, South Korea elected its [14th president](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_South_Korea \"South Korea has had 14 presidents\"), [Lee Jae-Myung](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-myung \"Lee Jae-Myung\"). Many of South Korea's presidents these had their terms end prematurely, with 2 getting impeached ([Yoon Suk Yeol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoon_Suk_Yeol \"Yoon Suk Yeol\") and [Park Geun-hye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye \"Park Geun-hye\")), 3 resigning ([Syngman Rhee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syngman_Rhee \"Syngman Rhee\"), [Yun Po-sun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Po-sun \"Yun Po-sun\"), and [Choi Kyu-hah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyu-hah \"Choi Kyu-hah\")) and 1 being assassinated ([Park Chung Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung_Hee \"Park Chung Hee\")). Lee Jae-Myung himself has survived [an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Lee_Jae-myung).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lee Jae-Myung completes his term as President of South Korea (currently scheduled to last until 2030).", "fine_print": "* If the duration of presidential terms changes while Lee Jae-Myung is president, this question will resolve according to the new term limit.\n* Reelections are immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n* If Lee Jae-Myung gets impeached by the National Assembly, but the Constitutional Court reinstates him and his title of President is not revoked, this question will *not* resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 38428, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751591828.01099, "end_time": 1753356991.743, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.704 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751591828.01099, "end_time": 1753356991.743, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.704 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7688190054863504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.08508524734423982, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 14, 2025, South Korea elected its [14th president](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_South_Korea \"South Korea has had 14 presidents\"), [Lee Jae-Myung](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-myung \"Lee Jae-Myung\"). Many of South Korea's presidents these had their terms end prematurely, with 2 getting impeached ([Yoon Suk Yeol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoon_Suk_Yeol \"Yoon Suk Yeol\") and [Park Geun-hye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Geun-hye \"Park Geun-hye\")), 3 resigning ([Syngman Rhee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syngman_Rhee \"Syngman Rhee\"), [Yun Po-sun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yun_Po-sun \"Yun Po-sun\"), and [Choi Kyu-hah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choi_Kyu-hah \"Choi Kyu-hah\")) and 1 being assassinated ([Park Chung Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung_Hee \"Park Chung Hee\")). Lee Jae-Myung himself has survived [an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Lee_Jae-myung)." }, { "id": 38418, "title": "Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?", "short_title": "US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?", "url_title": "US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?", "slug": "us-and-china-reach-an-agreement-to-limit-frontier-ai-development-before-2029", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T17:35:47.648958Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T19:50:41.998340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:18.239472Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37691, "title": "Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T17:35:47.649389Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI 2027 scenario is divided into two endings: \"[race](https://ai-2027.com/race)\" and \"[slowdown](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown).\" In the race scenario the US attempts to develop AI as quickly as possible to outpace China, while in the slowdown scenario the US slows development to focus on alignment.\n\nIn the slowdown scenario, a slowdown deal is considered but is ultimately not reached:\n\n[December 2027: A US-China Deal?](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-12-31):\n\n> So China increasingly fears that America will build an insurmountable lead. They want a mutual slowdown, and are considering going to war if they can’t get it.[<sup>21</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-21) They were prepping to invade Taiwan anyway…\n\n> But the main problem is not technical but political. Neither wants to be seen as giving in, and despite their engineers’ guesses, neither is convinced that the technical mechanisms can guarantee the other side’s honesty. What ends up happening is the first option: Nothing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the US or China formally and credibly announces that a formal bilateral agreement has been reached, that limits the training or deployment of AI above a certain capability level or compute threshold.", "fine_print": "This question only considers formal mutual agreements, informal arrangements or individual, separate commitments will not qualify.\n\nAny such agreement qualifies, as long as it covers all models above a capability or compute threshold.\n\nThe agreement has to impose specific, bug general limitations on frontier models.\n\n* Vague commitments, such as \"ensuring the AI benefits all of humanity\", will not suffice.\n* Narrow commitments, such as ensuring that an AI always refuses to generate biological weapon ideas or prohibiting the use of AI in nuclear weapons, will not suffice.\n* Examples of agreements that would qualify:\n * Prohibiting any AI with more than X compute, X parameters, or X score in some benchmark from being deployed or trained.\n * Mandating that AIs above a certain threshold undergo third-party safety evaluations of a specific form.", "post_id": 38418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751917831.119876, "end_time": 1758367022.785, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751917831.119876, "end_time": 1758367022.785, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13704039217684688 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2106750195973517, 2.279139608915239, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.0, 0.8384687377339539, 0.030495608575599326, 0.3395232167316722, 1.5019715278246957, 0.8125187863675749, 0.23260372818648983, 0.5712612958305987, 0.0, 0.10151957537146487, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.8960664340765805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3555814313935963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.19993357957066704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819752713399747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44358054667768915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09137306012095735 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI 2027 scenario is divided into two endings: \"[race](https://ai-2027.com/race)\" and \"[slowdown](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown).\" In the race scenario the US attempts to develop AI as quickly as possible to outpace China, while in the slowdown scenario the US slows development to focus on alignment.\n\nIn the slowdown scenario, a slowdown deal is considered but is ultimately not reached:\n\n[December 2027: A US-China Deal?](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-12-31):\n\n> So China increasingly fears that America will build an insurmountable lead. They want a mutual slowdown, and are considering going to war if they can’t get it.[<sup>21</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-21) They were prepping to invade Taiwan anyway…\n\n> But the main problem is not technical but political. Neither wants to be seen as giving in, and despite their engineers’ guesses, neither is convinced that the technical mechanisms can guarantee the other side’s honesty. What ends up happening is the first option: Nothing." }, { "id": 38417, "title": "Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-government-mandate-security-clearance-from-the-employees-that-lead-the-research-and-development-of-the-top-models-at-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-before-2028", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T14:18:05.682358Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T19:59:48.089720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:52:57.555311Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:02:16.033119Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37690, "title": "Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T14:18:05.682801Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n\n> OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n\nThen, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n\n> The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n\nEventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> \n> They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> \n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US government mandates that the employees that are leading the research and development of frontier AI capabilities at least one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind have some form of security clearance. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If a security clearance is mandated for at least one person who could be considered to be leading the R\\&D on the most capable or promising AI of at least one company, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if multiple people could be considered to be leading the R\\&D.\n* This question will also resolve as **Yes** if US government employees with security clearance are leading the frontier R\\&D at one of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Deepmind.", "post_id": 38417, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751918377.483688, "end_time": 1757809771.746205, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751918377.483688, "end_time": 1757809771.746205, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4538030285849317 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0790051830574851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.3467987421023664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0386810676967242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AI 2027 [forecasts](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28) that the relationship between the top US AI labs and the US government will deepen, for example in their scenario, in [February 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28)\n\n> OpenBrain \\[the leading US AI company] presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), Department of Defense (DOD), and US AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.\n\nThen, in [May 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-05-31)\n\n> The OpenBrain-DOD contract requires security clearances for anyone working on OpenBrain’s models within 2 months. These are expedited and arrive quickly enough for most employees, but some non-Americans, people with suspect political views, and AI safety sympathizers get sidelined or fired outright (the last group for fear that they might whistleblow).\n\nEventually, in [October 2027](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> A frantic energy has seized the White House. Even before the memo and public backlash, they were getting nervous: Over the past year, they’ve been repeatedly surprised by the speed of AI progress. Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life. Many people in the administration are uncertain (and scared)[<sup>97</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-97) about what comes next.\n> \n> They also worry that OpenBrain is becoming too powerful. Any misalignment risk from the AIs themselves is compounded by the risk that their parent company’s aims may diverge from those of the United States. All three sets of worries—misalignment, concentration of power in a private company, and normal concerns like job loss—motivate the government to tighten its control.\n> \n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight." }, { "id": 38416, "title": "Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?", "short_title": "Will no-confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025", "url_title": "Will no-confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025", "slug": "will-no-confidence-pass-the-french-national-assembly-before-july-14-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-04T13:45:43.083395Z", "published_at": "2025-06-04T21:45:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T07:12:04.892375Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-04T21:45:38.774698Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-04T23:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37689, "title": "Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-04T13:45:43.083764Z", "open_time": "2025-06-04T23:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T03:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-13T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_49_of_the_French_Constitution#Vote_of_no_confidence_\\(49.2\\)): \n\n> A vote of no confidence (*censure*) allows the National Assembly, on its own initiative, to force the government to resign. The vote's application and action by the parliament, in this regard, is an essential characteristic of any parliamentary system. De Gaulle, when inaugurated as prime minister under the Fourth Republic, promised he would include this procedure in the proposed reform of institutions. It was actually imposed by the Constitutional Law of 3 June 1958.\n\nLe Figaro (translated from French by Google): [LFI files a motion of censure against the government](https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/rejet-volontaire-de-la-loi-duplomb-lfi-depose-une-motion-de-censure-contre-le-gouvernement-20250530)\n\n> Members of parliament from La France Insoumise and the Green Party filed a motion of no confidence in François Bayrou's government on Friday, following the tactical rejection of a proposed agricultural law by the central bloc and the far right, denounced as a maneuver aimed \"at muzzling national representation.\" Submitted by 56 LFI members and two members of the Green Party, it is the seventh motion against the Bayrou government. It will be put to a vote by the parliamentarians early next week. 289 votes are required for its adoption. It therefore has very little chance of being adopted, due to a lack of support, even on the left.\n\n> ...\n\n> François Bayrou has already survived six motions of censure from the left: one following his general policy statement, four on the state and social security budgets, and the last one introduced in February by the Socialists to protest the influence of the far right.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 14, 2025, France's National Assembly passes a resolution of no-confidence under the stipulations of Article 49 of the [Constitution of France](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/France_2008#s246).", "fine_print": "The English term \"resolution of no-confidence\" should be understood to correspond with the French term \"*motion de censure*\" in the [French version](https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/sites/default/files/as/root/bank_mm/constitution/constitution.pdf) of the Constitution of France.", "post_id": 38416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752304314.123262, "end_time": 1752345975.204881, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752304314.123262, "end_time": 1752345975.204881, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.21836823655075574 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9912427813524942, 0.7394682331392083, 0.23128568172579037, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_49_of_the_French_Constitution#Vote_of_no_confidence_\\(49.2\\)): \n\n> A vote of no confidence (*censure*) allows the National Assembly, on its own initiative, to force the government to resign. The vote's application and action by the parliament, in this regard, is an essential characteristic of any parliamentary system. De Gaulle, when inaugurated as prime minister under the Fourth Republic, promised he would include this procedure in the proposed reform of institutions. It was actually imposed by the Constitutional Law of 3 June 1958.\n\nLe Figaro (translated from French by Google): [LFI files a motion of censure against the government](https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/rejet-volontaire-de-la-loi-duplomb-lfi-depose-une-motion-de-censure-contre-le-gouvernement-20250530)\n\n> Members of parliament from La France Insoumise and the Green Party filed a motion of no confidence in François Bayrou's government on Friday, following the tactical rejection of a proposed agricultural law by the central bloc and the far right, denounced as a maneuver aimed \"at muzzling national representation.\" Submitted by 56 LFI members and two members of the Green Party, it is the seventh motion against the Bayrou government. It will be put to a vote by the parliamentarians early next week. 289 votes are required for its adoption. It therefore has very little chance of being adopted, due to a lack of support, even on the left.\n\n> ...\n\n> François Bayrou has already survived six motions of censure from the left: one following his general policy statement, four on the state and social security budgets, and the last one introduced in February by the Socialists to protest the influence of the far right." } ] }
