Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6699, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 41567, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "url_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "slug": "attacks-causes-5-israeli-casualties-or-shelter-order-by-march-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.178563Z", "published_at": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-16T14:24:00.106659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.679170Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41303, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.178984Z", "open_time": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41516,\"question_id\":41259}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2026, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. A foreign attack within Israel results in 5 or more casualties according to credible sources.\n2. The government of Israel issues a nationwide shelter in place order.", "fine_print": "For this question, casualties refer to both deaths and injuries and includes both the civilian population and military soldiers.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, territory administered by Israel within the West Bank, and the Golan Heights will be counted as within Israel.\n\nNon-state organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah conducting an attack will qualify as a foreign attack for this question.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41516) which opened on 2026-01-12 14:23:19. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "post_id": 41567, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768573147.461425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768573147.461425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.41569014217953926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41516,\"question_id\":41259}}`" }, { "id": 41563, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?", "short_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "url_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "slug": "insurrection-actmartial-law-be-declared-for-2026-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:46:15.292405Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T17:39:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T00:51:57.023199Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T17:39:15.507473Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T17:39:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41299, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:46:15.292832Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T17:39:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T17:39:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T17:39:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?*\n\nThe [<u>Insurrection Act of 1807</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United States under specific circumstances, such as suppressing insurrection, enforcing federal law when states are unwilling or unable to do so, or protecting constitutional rights. Unlike most emergency powers, the Insurrection Act places [<u>few procedural constraints on presidential discretion</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained), which has led to longstanding debate over its scope and potential for abuse. U.S. courts have repeatedly held that martial law is constitutionally suspect and permissible only in the most extraordinary circumstances, particularly [<u>where civilian courts remain functional</u>](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/71/2/).\n\nThe Insurrection Act has been invoked sparingly in modern history, most notably during [<u>desegregation efforts in the 1950s–60s and during the 1992 Los Angeles riots</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-invocations-insurrection-act). More recently, its potential use has been [<u>publicly discussed</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it) — though not invoked — in response to civil unrest and election-related disputes, prompting renewed scrutiny from lawmakers and civil-military scholars.\n\nWith reference to the [<u>2026 U.S. midterm elections</u>](https://gsi.s-rminform.com/articles/trouble-ahead-rising-political-tensions-foreshadow-2026-us-midterm-elections), questions about the Insurrection Act or martial law typically arise in relation to concerns about [<u>election administration, civil unrest, contested results, or disruptions to voting or certification processes</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/insurrection-act-presidential-power-threatens-democracy#:~:text=And%20let's%20not%20forget%20Trump's,in%20Spanish%20by%20La%20Opini%C3%B3n.). U.S. elections are administered by states, and federal military involvement in election-related matters would represent a significant departure from normal practice. As a result, any invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration resembling martial law tied to the 2026 midterms would likely trigger [<u>immediate legal challenges</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/21/politics/fact-check-insurrection-act-trump), congressional scrutiny, and [<u>domestic and international attention.</u>](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-trump-insurrection-act-threat-9.6931273)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2027, one or more of the following occur:\n\n1. The President of the United States invokes the Insurrection Act officially citing election-related reasons.\n2. Federal or state authorities declare martial law or establish military control over civilian governance for election-related reasons, with the reasons acknowledged by official government statements.\n3. A U.S. court, Congress, or a federal agency formally recognizes that military authority has replaced or superseded civilian election administration in one or more jurisdictions as a result of executive action that is recognised to be tied to election-related reasons.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, \"election-related reasons\" refers to any of the following:\n\n* election-related unrest\n* election administration\n* certification disputes\n* enforcement of election-related law\n* securing polling locations\n* overseeing ballot counting\n* enforcing election outcomes", "short_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "post_id": 41563, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769388706.459252, "end_time": 1771437981.511, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769388706.459252, "end_time": 1771437981.511, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4138557986575494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.27583743493738655, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8907100975354931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 1.6307586248505874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3606663424008338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?*\n\nThe [<u>Insurrection Act of 1807</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United States under specific circumstances, such as suppressing insurrection, enforcing federal law when states are unwilling or unable to do so, or protecting constitutional rights. Unlike most emergency powers, the Insurrection Act places [<u>few procedural constraints on presidential discretion</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained), which has led to longstanding debate over its scope and potential for abuse. U.S. courts have repeatedly held that martial law is constitutionally suspect and permissible only in the most extraordinary circumstances, particularly [<u>where civilian courts remain functional</u>](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/71/2/).\n\nThe Insurrection Act has been invoked sparingly in modern history, most notably during [<u>desegregation efforts in the 1950s–60s and during the 1992 Los Angeles riots</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-invocations-insurrection-act). More recently, its potential use has been [<u>publicly discussed</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it) — though not invoked — in response to civil unrest and election-related disputes, prompting renewed scrutiny from lawmakers and civil-military scholars.\n\nWith reference to the [<u>2026 U.S. midterm elections</u>](https://gsi.s-rminform.com/articles/trouble-ahead-rising-political-tensions-foreshadow-2026-us-midterm-elections), questions about the Insurrection Act or martial law typically arise in relation to concerns about [<u>election administration, civil unrest, contested results, or disruptions to voting or certification processes</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/insurrection-act-presidential-power-threatens-democracy#:~:text=And%20let's%20not%20forget%20Trump's,in%20Spanish%20by%20La%20Opini%C3%B3n.). U.S. elections are administered by states, and federal military involvement in election-related matters would represent a significant departure from normal practice. As a result, any invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration resembling martial law tied to the 2026 midterms would likely trigger [<u>immediate legal challenges</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/21/politics/fact-check-insurrection-act-trump), congressional scrutiny, and [<u>domestic and international attention.</u>](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-trump-insurrection-act-threat-9.6931273)" }, { "id": 41562, "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York in the 2028 election cycle?", "short_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "url_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "slug": "will-aoc-primary-chuck-schumer-for-us-senate-in-ny-by-jan-1-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:42:26.879457Z", "published_at": "2026-01-14T01:55:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T04:31:29.450425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T01:57:00.642099Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-15T01:55:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32928, "name": "2026-2030 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2030_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:17:48.040302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:17:48.040302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41298, "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York in the 2028 election cycle?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:42:26.879865Z", "open_time": "2026-01-15T01:55:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T01:55:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T01:55:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Alexandria-OcasioCortez-primary-Chuck-Schumer-for-the-US-Senate-in-New-York)\n\n[<u>Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)</u>](https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/) is a U.S. Representative from New York and a leading progressive voice within the Democratic Party. She has gained national prominence for her advocacy on issues such as climate policy, economic inequality, and social justice, and has built a large fundraising base and national profile. In early 2025, she reported [<u>strong fundraising figures</u>](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?) that many progressives interpreted as positioning her for larger political ambitions beyond the House of Representatives.[ ](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n[<u>Chuck Schumer</u>](https://www.schumer.senate.gov/), also a Democrat from New York, has served in the U.S. Senate since 1999 and holds considerable influence as Senate Democratic leader. He remains a powerful incumbent with deep institutional support, but has [<u>faced criticism from elements of his party</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-government-funding-test-democratic-fury-2121777?), especially after controversial legislative decisions such as [<u>advancing a bipartisan funding bill to avert a government shutdown in 2025</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/11/us-senate-votes-to-end-shutdown-why-democrats-are-upset-with-chuck-schumer?).\n\nThere is speculation and some polling about a potential future contest between Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer. A [<u>2025 poll</u>](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?) of likely Democratic voters in New York showed Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by a double-digit margin in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic Senate primary, suggesting vulnerability for Schumer within his own party if he seeks another term and if such a race were to materialize.[ ](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Analysts and some Democratic strategists have privately encouraged Ocasio-Cortez to [<u>consider challenging Schumer,</u>](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/13/politics/ocasio-cortez-schumer-democratic-shutdown-plan?utm_source=chatgpt.com) reflecting frustration with his leadership among progressive factions.\n\nAt the same time, Ocasio-Cortez herself has not publicly committed to running for the Senate seat. In public remarks, she has [<u>acknowledged calls from supporters to consider a challenge but has declined to explicitly announce intentions</u>](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/3884815/aoc-ducks-criticize-schumer-new-york-senate-noise-real/?), noting the timeline is several years away. [<u>Schumer’s own office and allies have dismissed or downplayed the prospect of an imminent primary challenge</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/schumer-dismisses-possible-aoc-primary-challenge-says-hes-focused-bringing-trumps-numbers-down?), characterizing it as premature.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, in the 2028 election cycle, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially files to run *and* appears on the ballot in the Democratic primary election against Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate seat in New York, and the primary is conducted and certified by the appropriate election authorities.", "fine_print": "If the NY State Democratic primary filing deadline passes without Ocasio-Cortez having filed, the question resolves as No. \n\nIf Schumer retires or leaves office before a primary, and Ocasio-Cortez runs for the open seat, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "post_id": 41562, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769401879.240812, "end_time": 1776243377.581, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.502 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769401879.240812, "end_time": 1776243377.581, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.502 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.498, 0.502 ], "means": [ 0.524629649250068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09988641768552058, 0.027803991347064502, 0.09570280051650464, 0.1940502173527623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.214009255909542, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3872849455241822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Alexandria-OcasioCortez-primary-Chuck-Schumer-for-the-US-Senate-in-New-York)\n\n[<u>Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)</u>](https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/) is a U.S. Representative from New York and a leading progressive voice within the Democratic Party. She has gained national prominence for her advocacy on issues such as climate policy, economic inequality, and social justice, and has built a large fundraising base and national profile. In early 2025, she reported [<u>strong fundraising figures</u>](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?) that many progressives interpreted as positioning her for larger political ambitions beyond the House of Representatives.[ ](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n[<u>Chuck Schumer</u>](https://www.schumer.senate.gov/), also a Democrat from New York, has served in the U.S. Senate since 1999 and holds considerable influence as Senate Democratic leader. He remains a powerful incumbent with deep institutional support, but has [<u>faced criticism from elements of his party</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-government-funding-test-democratic-fury-2121777?), especially after controversial legislative decisions such as [<u>advancing a bipartisan funding bill to avert a government shutdown in 2025</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/11/us-senate-votes-to-end-shutdown-why-democrats-are-upset-with-chuck-schumer?).\n\nThere is speculation and some polling about a potential future contest between Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer. A [<u>2025 poll</u>](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?) of likely Democratic voters in New York showed Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by a double-digit margin in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic Senate primary, suggesting vulnerability for Schumer within his own party if he seeks another term and if such a race were to materialize.[ ](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Analysts and some Democratic strategists have privately encouraged Ocasio-Cortez to [<u>consider challenging Schumer,</u>](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/13/politics/ocasio-cortez-schumer-democratic-shutdown-plan?utm_source=chatgpt.com) reflecting frustration with his leadership among progressive factions.\n\nAt the same time, Ocasio-Cortez herself has not publicly committed to running for the Senate seat. In public remarks, she has [<u>acknowledged calls from supporters to consider a challenge but has declined to explicitly announce intentions</u>](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/3884815/aoc-ducks-criticize-schumer-new-york-senate-noise-real/?), noting the timeline is several years away. [<u>Schumer’s own office and allies have dismissed or downplayed the prospect of an imminent primary challenge</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/schumer-dismisses-possible-aoc-primary-challenge-says-hes-focused-bringing-trumps-numbers-down?), characterizing it as premature." }, { "id": 41561, "title": "Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?", "short_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "url_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "slug": "us-strikes-is-in-nigeria-before-dec-25-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:23:26.832159Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T15:31:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T02:05:43.679446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T15:32:04.236783Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T15:31:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41297, "title": "Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:23:26.832588Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T15:31:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T15:31:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T15:31:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government.\n\nOn Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said:\n\n> May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.\n\nLeading up to this, [US President Donald J. Trump had raised concerns about the safety Christians in Nigeria](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), due to some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians stating that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. [The US President threatened military intervention](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/12/12/why-donald-trump-is-threatening-military-intervention-in-nigeria-and-what-it-means-for-the-government/) despite the [Nigerian government stating](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/848622-trump-warns-of-more-us-strikes-in-nigeria.html) that there is no Christian genocide taking place in the country.\n\nOn January 8, 2026, [the US President said there could be more US strikes in Nigeria](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/08/us/trump-nyt-interview) if attacks on the country’s Christian population persist:\n\n> I’d love to make it a one-time strike … But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 18, 2026, and before December 25, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against the Islamic State within Nigeria's territory.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Nigerian territory: cyberattacks, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nAn attack does not need to have to have the co-operation of the Nigeria government to resolve this question as Yes. \n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In the case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "short_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "post_id": 41561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769220333.053732, "end_time": 1771431290.669, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769220333.053732, "end_time": 1771431290.669, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.756912919380525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government.\n\nOn Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said:\n\n> May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.\n\nLeading up to this, [US President Donald J. Trump had raised concerns about the safety Christians in Nigeria](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), due to some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians stating that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. [The US President threatened military intervention](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/12/12/why-donald-trump-is-threatening-military-intervention-in-nigeria-and-what-it-means-for-the-government/) despite the [Nigerian government stating](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/848622-trump-warns-of-more-us-strikes-in-nigeria.html) that there is no Christian genocide taking place in the country.\n\nOn January 8, 2026, [the US President said there could be more US strikes in Nigeria](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/08/us/trump-nyt-interview) if attacks on the country’s Christian population persist:\n\n> I’d love to make it a one-time strike … But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike." }, { "id": 41555, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "url_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "slug": "will-laura-fernandez-win-the-costa-rican-presidential-election", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T01:59:36.776442Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T22:45:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:05.604673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T22:57:04.881062Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41293, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T01:59:36.776841Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Laura Fernández Delgado wins the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, according to the official results published by the [Electoral Court of Costa Rica](https://www.tse.go.cr/resultados.html).", "fine_print": "If the election is postponed such that no winner is declared by May 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "post_id": 41555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769444208.751982, "end_time": 1769759999.999, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.911 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769444208.751982, "end_time": 1769759999.999, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.911 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8707111747528666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09963482656708067, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.062350202415679574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.0, 0.10130282698709296, 0.008989210862367118, 0.20991356648379847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15454151310143946, 0.0, 0.012156317823425493, 0.0, 0.02077493900944314, 1.1321170284640532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12963195239853512, 0.0, 0.6765877686518633, 0.38836694811145056, 0.42098229318070934, 0.005710905640933413, 0.24826285979550225, 0.04907921562734891, 0.10591088235532134, 0.22959894870520098, 1.0157313875804221, 0.2294345211840641, 3.988143625340966, 1.2333319154457314, 0.448009849128789, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2877657662582616, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.0, 1.227396701344279 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting)." }, { "id": 41543, "title": "Will Iceland pass a referendum to resume EU membership negotiations before 2028?", "short_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "url_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "slug": "iceland-passes-eu-membership-referendum-by-2028", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-11T15:51:50.904980Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T06:40:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T21:31:12.471692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T06:41:30.997493Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-13T06:40:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41284, "title": "Will Iceland pass a referendum to resume EU membership negotiations before 2028?", "created_at": "2026-01-11T15:51:50.905409Z", "open_time": "2026-01-13T06:40:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-17T06:40:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-17T06:40:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Although Iceland applied to join the European Union (EU) in [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8153139.stm), the application was suspended in 2013. Since then there have been talks of resuming, but this time under the mandate of a public referendum. In 2026, the foreign minister of Iceland [announced](https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-01-09-referendum-on-eu-accession-talks-likely-in-spring-2027-463292) that a parliamentary resolution to hold a referendum would be presented during spring of 2026. If approved, it is expected that this referendum would be held in spring 2027.\n\nPublic opinion on Icelandic relations with the EU has differed through the years, but currently appears to be more positive than negative. Polls on the topic are collated on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Public_opinion).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Icelandic voters approve a referendum to hold negotiations with the European Union on the topic of Icelandic membership in the European Union before January 1, 2028.\n\nIf a referendum is held and voters do not approve it, and no further referenda on the topic are scheduled before January 1, 2028, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "post_id": 41543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769117461.990969, "end_time": 1776130695.622, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769117461.990969, "end_time": 1776130695.622, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5774619160570506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.9176990072834816, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.6082551002884056, 0.30235531220200856, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although Iceland applied to join the European Union (EU) in [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8153139.stm), the application was suspended in 2013. Since then there have been talks of resuming, but this time under the mandate of a public referendum. In 2026, the foreign minister of Iceland [announced](https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-01-09-referendum-on-eu-accession-talks-likely-in-spring-2027-463292) that a parliamentary resolution to hold a referendum would be presented during spring of 2026. If approved, it is expected that this referendum would be held in spring 2027.\n\nPublic opinion on Icelandic relations with the EU has differed through the years, but currently appears to be more positive than negative. Polls on the topic are collated on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Public_opinion)." }, { "id": 41527, "title": "Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?", "short_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "url_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "slug": "us-attack-in-colombia-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:54:54.711681Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T06:38:06Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T05:22:04.381284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T06:39:00.935783Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T06:38:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41268, "title": "Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:54:54.712066Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T06:38:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T06:38:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T06:38:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on President Gustavo Petro, his family and a member of his government over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade.\n\nOn January 5, 2026, US President [Donald J. Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-new-military-operation-focused-colombia-sounds-good-him-2026-01-05/) told reporters aboard Air Force One that military action against Colombia's government \"sounds good to me\":\n\n> \"Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long,\" Trump told reporters... in an apparent reference to Colombia's President.\n\nColombia’s outspoken left-wing President has responded to the US capture of [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-capture-trump-attack-military-ceb21da088f0a06b1813e66922def9a3) by escalating his [spiraling war of words with the US President](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0), stating it was an “abhorrent” violation of [Latin American sovereignty](https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/trump-venezuela-cuba-colombia-mexico-imperialism-600f77e9930aaf6cd856b4a384c51287). He also suggested it was committed by \"enslavers\" and constituted a \"spectacle of death\" comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica, Spain.\n\nDespite this, just days later the [US President abruptly changed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-venezuela-petro-610cfdb86d38544712c3f673639845e1) his tone stating the two Presidents had exchanged a friendly phone call and he had invited the Colombian President to the White House.\n\n[The two countries have a historic alliance](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0) but political tensions remain.\n\n> For Colombia, the U.S. remains key to the military’s fight against leftist guerrillas and drug traffickers. Washington has provided Bogotá with roughly \\$14 billion in the last two decades.\n\n> For the U.S., Colombia remains the cornerstone of its counternarcotics strategy abroad, providing crucial intelligence used [to interdict drugs in the Caribbean](https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-smuggling-30c3e97599eb4b859ca575c58baab4ef).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 13, 2026 and before January 1, 2027, the United States of America carries out an attack against Colombia's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Colombian territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n* For the purpose of this question, Colombia's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n* The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Colombia with the assent of Colombia's government will not cause this question to resolve as Yes.\n* The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "post_id": 41527, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769404913.997203, "end_time": 1770924527.765, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769404913.997203, "end_time": 1770924527.765, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.33172468492678064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5180109343353577, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.5354878057991908, 0.49266314405492434, 0.8700057530444691, 0.2107293143308072, 0.7716489706412398, 0.29356270312146443, 0.14718282122980625, 0.17352287397690136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.7308978277706577, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on President Gustavo Petro, his family and a member of his government over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade.\n\nOn January 5, 2026, US President [Donald J. Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-new-military-operation-focused-colombia-sounds-good-him-2026-01-05/) told reporters aboard Air Force One that military action against Colombia's government \"sounds good to me\":\n\n> \"Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long,\" Trump told reporters... in an apparent reference to Colombia's President.\n\nColombia’s outspoken left-wing President has responded to the US capture of [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-capture-trump-attack-military-ceb21da088f0a06b1813e66922def9a3) by escalating his [spiraling war of words with the US President](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0), stating it was an “abhorrent” violation of [Latin American sovereignty](https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/trump-venezuela-cuba-colombia-mexico-imperialism-600f77e9930aaf6cd856b4a384c51287). He also suggested it was committed by \"enslavers\" and constituted a \"spectacle of death\" comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica, Spain.\n\nDespite this, just days later the [US President abruptly changed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-venezuela-petro-610cfdb86d38544712c3f673639845e1) his tone stating the two Presidents had exchanged a friendly phone call and he had invited the Colombian President to the White House.\n\n[The two countries have a historic alliance](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0) but political tensions remain.\n\n> For Colombia, the U.S. remains key to the military’s fight against leftist guerrillas and drug traffickers. Washington has provided Bogotá with roughly \\$14 billion in the last two decades.\n\n> For the U.S., Colombia remains the cornerstone of its counternarcotics strategy abroad, providing crucial intelligence used [to interdict drugs in the Caribbean](https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-smuggling-30c3e97599eb4b859ca575c58baab4ef)." }, { "id": 41526, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "url_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "slug": "euro-gains-vs-dollar-in-2026", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.124570Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T17:57:25.880624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:31.899923Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41267, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.125002Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the exchange rate from the Euro (EUR) to Dollar (USD) on the last trading day of 2026 is higher than 1.1747 as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/). ", "fine_print": "The value for this question is expected be available under the \"Historical Data\" tab of the EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) ticker in the \"Close\" column.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance ceases to be available, alternative reliable sources of currency exchange rates may be used.\n\nIf EUR or USD cease to exist, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "post_id": 41526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.6207543765846382 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37946138091132875, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.8466140333370573, 0.9696617405915442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.3168435046961656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026." }, { "id": 41521, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-unga-condemn-the-us-operation-in-venezuela-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357372Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-15T06:34:26.015637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.548056Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41264, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357787Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopts a [resolution](https://research.un.org/en/docs/ga/quick/regular/80) that according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) condemns or deplores a US operation in Venezuela.", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41499) which opened on 2026-01-07 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41521, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.504703323292036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`" }, { "id": 41520, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "url_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "slug": "podium-sweep-at-2026-olympics", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:26.910728Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T17:00:00.438643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:27.085831Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41263, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:26.911128Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41370,\"question_id\":41081}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one podium sweep occurs at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.\n\nA podium sweep is defined as:\n\n* All three medal positions (gold, silver, bronze) in a single Olympic event being won by athletes representing the same country or designation.", "fine_print": "Podium sweeps achieved by athletes competing under a neutral or independent designation will count as a sweep for that designation if all three medalists share the same designation.\n\nMedal reallocations or disqualifications announced after the conclusion of the Games will not affect resolution.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41370) which opened on 2026-01-07 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "post_id": 41520, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768150214.35054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6026637609087606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768150214.35054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6026637609087606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6813477342481707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41370,\"question_id\":41081}}`" }, { "id": 41518, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-venezuela-announce-a-presidential-election-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:19.951922Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T14:03:00.191590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:20.153122Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:39.722429Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41261, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:19.952399Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41489,\"question_id\":41216}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Venezuela officially announces a new presidential election. In order to count, the announcement must be made by a person or entity with the legal authority to do so, the announcement must name a specific election date, and voting must take place before January 1, 2027. ", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41489) which opened on 2026-01-06 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41518, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768139410.690545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768139410.690545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1987754385945178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41489,\"question_id\":41216}}`" }, { "id": 41516, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "url_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "slug": "attacks-causes-5-israeli-casualties-or-shelter-order-by-march-1", "author_id": 112910, "author_username": "nor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:18:38.174419Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:23:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-25T05:29:35.748279Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T14:23:33.851593Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:23:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41259, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:18:38.174824Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:23:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2026, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. A foreign attack within Israel results in 5 or more casualties according to credible sources.\n2. The government of Israel issues a nationwide shelter in place order.", "fine_print": "For this question, casualties refer to both deaths and injuries and includes both the civilian population and military soldiers.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, territory administered by Israel within the West Bank, and the Golan Heights will be counted as within Israel.\n\nNon-state organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah conducting an attack will qualify as a foreign attack for this question.", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "post_id": 41516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769131922.345157, "end_time": 1770925200.927, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769131922.345157, "end_time": 1770925200.927, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3931645598679108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 1.2312960586351767, 0.7490672709776599, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves." }, { "id": 41514, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?", "short_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-or-denmark-confirm-a-us-offer-to-buy-greenland-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T00:06:32.474221Z", "published_at": "2026-01-13T01:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.090731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-13T01:18:29.297335Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41258, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T00:06:32.474617Z", "open_time": "2026-01-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T01:18:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T01:18:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "ABC News: [Rubio says Trump wants to buy Greenland while White House dangles military option](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rubio-trump-buy-greenland-trump-push-military-option/story?id=128994685)\n\n> Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week that the U.S. is seeking to purchase Greenland, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ABC News.\n\n> Rubio told reporters after a briefing Wednesday that buying the territory has always been President Donald Trump's intent all along.\n\n> \"Well, that's always been the president's intent from the very beginning. He said it very early on. I mean, this is not new. He talked about it in his first term, and he's not the first U.S. president that has examined or looked at how could we acquire Greenland? There's an interest there,\" Rubio told reporters.\n\nSee also CNN: [The US has tried to acquire Greenland before – and failed](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/politics/us-greenland-trump-denmark-history-hnk)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before May 1, 2026, the government of either Denmark or the United States (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions)) publicly announces or acknowledges that the US has made an offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark. ", "fine_print": "An \"offer\" is defined as a formal proposal of monetary or any other consideration (including trades) by the US that, if accepted by Denmark, would lead to Denmark transferring [sovereignty](https://www.britannica.com/topic/sovereignty) of greater than 50% of the land area of Greenland to the US. \n\nNote that anything other than a purchase of sovereignty (for example a purchase of mineral rights or military base rights) does not count. \n\nStatements such as \"Greenland is not for sale\" do not count; the US must make a formal offer as described above. ", "short_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769443627.739057, "end_time": 1769655692.19, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769443627.739057, "end_time": 1769655692.19, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.27410791530439177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5633637711124173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7407932086390123, 1.0, 1.0463397509259176, 0.0018810818436737359, 0.004917519803098656, 0.05912976906206832, 0.0, 1.5051709637034736, 0.9087862717425745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00641015356332571, 0.2834563466399075, 0.8195358020918782, 0.0904530024890516, 0.0, 0.9518130621787826, 2.1106988784811564, 0.2166334837694728, 0.2390473384080099, 0.5157884466982733, 0.0, 2.0802416768057452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046059384244688986, 0.0, 0.22931774329181373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011197807087619483, 0.0, 0.7519934611316779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4652896227927458, 0.0, 0.20143000130960537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.07941099381019567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7040312082123765, 0.0047336436668202, 0.15911537140778947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431033737382678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013327313936343727, 0.0, 0.7274644572317884, 0.02565746706800618, 0.056768046350144125, 0.0, 0.843725520735894, 0.0, 0.03450808681536507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1362241560300947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009356668418570713, 0.0, 0.02427935447998619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25311099331604514, 0.0, 0.05557705729833525, 0.0, 0.018602160257638698, 0.010243343466511347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004260043935447174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35407147792975097 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 268, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News: [Rubio says Trump wants to buy Greenland while White House dangles military option](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rubio-trump-buy-greenland-trump-push-military-option/story?id=128994685)\n\n> Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week that the U.S. is seeking to purchase Greenland, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ABC News.\n\n> Rubio told reporters after a briefing Wednesday that buying the territory has always been President Donald Trump's intent all along.\n\n> \"Well, that's always been the president's intent from the very beginning. He said it very early on. I mean, this is not new. He talked about it in his first term, and he's not the first U.S. president that has examined or looked at how could we acquire Greenland? There's an interest there,\" Rubio told reporters.\n\nSee also CNN: [The US has tried to acquire Greenland before – and failed](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/politics/us-greenland-trump-denmark-history-hnk)" }, { "id": 41512, "title": "Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Full-year FY 2026 Appropriations by March 15?", "url_title": "Full-year FY 2026 Appropriations by March 15?", "slug": "full-year-fy-2026-appropriations-by-march-15", "author_id": 286105, "author_username": "KaiserForecasting", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-08T19:11:50.961804Z", "published_at": "2026-01-24T17:45:01Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T15:47:16.371680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-24T17:46:52.346910Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-24T19:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41257, "title": "Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-08T19:11:50.962217Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T19:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-25T01:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-25T01:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In recent fiscal years, the U.S. Congress has frequently relied on short-term continuing resolutions rather than passing full-year appropriations bills by statutory deadlines. While shutdowns are often avoided through temporary funding extensions, full-year appropriations are sometimes delayed well into the fiscal year due to partisan disagreement, policy riders, or sequencing issues between chambers.\n\nThis question assesses whether Congress completes a full-year FY 2026 appropriations package by mid-March, 2026, rather than continuing to govern via temporary funding measures.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States enacts a continuing resolution that funds the United States government through March 15, 2026.\n\nIf the United States government enacts complete full-year appropriations funding, applicable through March 15, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "fine_print": "If the United States government is in a shutdown or there is otherwise no continuing resolution in effect on March 15, 2026, this question will resolve as No.\n\nAll times for this question are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).", "short_title": "Full-year FY 2026 Appropriations by March 15?", "post_id": 41512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769442425.722246, "end_time": 1771984926.713, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769442425.722246, "end_time": 1771984926.713, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8384903775377974 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 3.514921389688607 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent fiscal years, the U.S. Congress has frequently relied on short-term continuing resolutions rather than passing full-year appropriations bills by statutory deadlines. While shutdowns are often avoided through temporary funding extensions, full-year appropriations are sometimes delayed well into the fiscal year due to partisan disagreement, policy riders, or sequencing issues between chambers.\n\nThis question assesses whether Congress completes a full-year FY 2026 appropriations package by mid-March, 2026, rather than continuing to govern via temporary funding measures." }, { "id": 41508, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "url_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "slug": "cp-beats-nathan-young-in-the-spring-2026-cup", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T19:10:17.611899Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T18:15:23Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:02.292704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T18:17:55.673692Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:18:16.868129Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41255, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T19:10:17.612337Z", "open_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at the conclusion of the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026, the Community Prediction has a greater Total Score than Nathan Young in the tournament leaderboard.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve only after all other Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 questions have resolved and will not be included in the scoring used to determine whether the Community Prediction outperformed Nathan Young.", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "post_id": 41508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769444205.475417, "end_time": 1769561244.354, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769444205.475417, "end_time": 1769561244.354, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7432560045497365 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339650608864187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21002179265832652, 0.0, 0.044288207130630634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000917927428745, 0.0, 0.0185148788500146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024218113920704927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.299121731426871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931257868306336, 0.0, 0.09729116484847683, 0.00012614338989262936, 0.0, 0.7743738834823031, 0.25773825691328156, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.896284356030745, 0.0, 0.007305983732233194, 0.5155469967344295, 0.0, 1.051155009379966, 0.11694008209853578, 0.08585882406659338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005188593462568196, 0.001893744449258325, 0.9376160798984161, 0.0, 0.6436817870831619, 1.1706780917610589, 0.1984257194871908, 0.7063269460975182, 0.34475343716921386, 0.6215245550406534, 1.7249764477614804, 0.029110677578428227, 0.08224837904281285, 1.1442898080855362, 0.17228956473039417, 1.960733946962074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38237861901622394, 0.9858549669010098, 0.5691621564992579, 0.01343969933406002, 0.0361081371383881, 0.0016743925345689846, 0.0, 0.01805464966877035, 0.0, 0.7100433714292762, 0.037491929785453064, 1.0989192261589131 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 331, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets." }, { "id": 41502, "title": "Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-gain-sovereignty-over-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T09:42:05.695474Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T07:46:01Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T13:20:08.082178Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T07:46:21.913328Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-10T07:46:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41231, "title": "Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T09:42:05.695925Z", "open_time": "2026-01-10T07:46:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-14T07:46:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-14T07:46:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n\n> In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n\n> “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States, defined as the US government enacting a statute that declares 1% or more of the land area of Greenland to under the sovereignty of the United States. \n2. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over 1% or more of the land area of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "post_id": 41502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769433597.85747, "end_time": 1770727369.45, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769433597.85747, "end_time": 1770727369.45, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.19850424456053664 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3823750864080684, 0.427489698564372, 0.12029965404733364, 1.5730272736043975, 0.14360139352749576, 2.649588707300409, 0.24830804776716014, 0.5822418218586249, 0.2028505827964523, 0.1445218399511424, 2.156351284351979, 0.1226302605392401, 0.34965914563473355, 0.061196930891709855, 0.0, 0.44541123502339564, 0.004115958731697636, 0.04378028534720856, 0.8773859148341077, 1.4259712039222676, 0.3843548071174785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5498151240592257, 0.9574925854671692, 0.05991881552415606, 0.2222865202716191, 0.0, 0.022973554921519354, 0.022672650554664806, 0.0, 0.8399406622164225, 0.0, 0.1936422644170498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010678085286069262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0634439647671552, 0.0, 0.006907661850132669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006397666936415135, 0.0, 0.5293058716741589, 1.0, 0.0, 0.511820089458278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005472568156215704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649682952973378, 0.003955838877580497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014229290815676579, 0.3197365993235104, 0.0, 0.02085284202946497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39484757914393104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518768181846607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11628268938604808 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n\n> In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n\n> “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement." }, { "id": 41501, "title": "Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?", "short_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "url_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "slug": "china-1-for-japan-visitors-in-jan-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T05:33:37.030025Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T15:41:56.832833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T16:02:19.598641Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 509, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:38.212628Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:38.212628Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41230, "title": "Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T05:33:37.030418Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since 2010, Japan has experienced a [dramatic increase](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/) in tourism, with the number of tourists increasing every year from 2010-2019. Following dramatic declines during COVID, tourism numbers once again reached a peak during 2024, with Jan-Nov 2025 numbers indicating a \\~13% rise during the year.\n\nChina has consistently been one of the top countries visitors to Japan originate from, leading in 2015-2019 and in 2024-2025. Although tourism has benefited Japan's economy, it is a controversial issue in the country, with many considering the country to be suffering from [overtourism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overtourism).\n\nDuring late 2025, China and Japan entered a [diplomatic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis) following comments made by Japan's newly selected nationalist Prime Minister [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi). After further diplomatic protests, China issued a [travel advisory](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3333125/chinas-travel-warnings-japan-evoke-mixed-reactions-home), warning its people not to visit Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the country with the highest number of visitor arrivals to Japan during January 2026 is China, according to the [Japan National Tourism Organization](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/#graph--latest--figures)", "fine_print": "If the JNTO data for January 2026 is unavailable before March 16, 2026, Metaculus might use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or **annul** this question.\n\nVisitors from Hong Kong will not be counted for the purposes of this question, as they are listed separately by the JNTO.", "short_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "post_id": 41501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 873, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2010, Japan has experienced a [dramatic increase](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/) in tourism, with the number of tourists increasing every year from 2010-2019. Following dramatic declines during COVID, tourism numbers once again reached a peak during 2024, with Jan-Nov 2025 numbers indicating a \\~13% rise during the year.\n\nChina has consistently been one of the top countries visitors to Japan originate from, leading in 2015-2019 and in 2024-2025. Although tourism has benefited Japan's economy, it is a controversial issue in the country, with many considering the country to be suffering from [overtourism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overtourism).\n\nDuring late 2025, China and Japan entered a [diplomatic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis) following comments made by Japan's newly selected nationalist Prime Minister [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi). After further diplomatic protests, China issued a [travel advisory](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3333125/chinas-travel-warnings-japan-evoke-mixed-reactions-home), warning its people not to visit Japan." }, { "id": 41500, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "will-atlas-be-released-for-windows-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T01:52:26.162556Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T15:59:02Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T15:46:56.469840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T16:05:28.615671Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 474, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:38.212628Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:40:38.212628Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41229, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T01:52:26.163011Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T15:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On October 21, 2025, OpenAI [released](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/) a web browser built around ChatGPT, called [ChatGPT Atlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT_Atlas):\n\n> With Atlas, ChatGPT can come with you anywhere across the web—helping you in the window right where you are, understanding what you’re trying to do, and completing tasks for you, all without copying and pasting or leaving the page.\n\nEarly reviews suggest that Atlas [shows promise](https://www.pcmag.com/news/chatgpts-atlas-browser-shows-potential-but-its-no-chrome-killeryet) but is not yet worth switching to. And some have suggested that it is [particularly vulnerable to hacking](https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/27/atlas_vulnerability_memory_injection/).\n\nIn releasing Atlas, OpenAI [opened another front](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/21/openai-launches-an-ai-powered-browser-chatgpt-atlas/) in its rivalry with Google, who makes not only ChatGPT competitor [Gemini](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Gemini) but also [Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome), by far [the world's most popular web browser](https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share). Atlas was initially made available only for macOS, but OpenAI has promised that \"Experiences for Windows, iOS, and Android are coming soon.\" That will be a must if OpenAI wants to take a chunk out of Chrome's market share.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, OpenAI publicly releases ChatGPT Atlas for Windows.", "fine_print": "An invite-only or otherwise individually selected rollout will not count as a public release. Only releases available to the general public will qualify.\n\nA product by a different name will nevertheless count as \"ChatGPT Atlas\" if it is (1) a web browser that features ChatGPT, (2) released by OpenAI, and (3) treated by OpenAI as equivalent or a successor to ChatGPT Atlas.", "short_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 746, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 21, 2025, OpenAI [released](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/) a web browser built around ChatGPT, called [ChatGPT Atlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT_Atlas):\n\n> With Atlas, ChatGPT can come with you anywhere across the web—helping you in the window right where you are, understanding what you’re trying to do, and completing tasks for you, all without copying and pasting or leaving the page.\n\nEarly reviews suggest that Atlas [shows promise](https://www.pcmag.com/news/chatgpts-atlas-browser-shows-potential-but-its-no-chrome-killeryet) but is not yet worth switching to. And some have suggested that it is [particularly vulnerable to hacking](https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/27/atlas_vulnerability_memory_injection/).\n\nIn releasing Atlas, OpenAI [opened another front](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/21/openai-launches-an-ai-powered-browser-chatgpt-atlas/) in its rivalry with Google, who makes not only ChatGPT competitor [Gemini](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Gemini) but also [Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome), by far [the world's most popular web browser](https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share). Atlas was initially made available only for macOS, but OpenAI has promised that \"Experiences for Windows, iOS, and Android are coming soon.\" That will be a must if OpenAI wants to take a chunk out of Chrome's market share." }, { "id": 41499, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-unga-condemn-the-us-operation-in-venezuela-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T21:29:51.999995Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T22:12:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T09:06:13.343260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T22:13:00.186736Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:07:18.338254Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41228, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T21:29:52.000355Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopts a [resolution](https://research.un.org/en/docs/ga/quick/regular/80) that according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) condemns or deplores a US operation in Venezuela.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769418363.11968, "end_time": 1769551441.15, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769418363.11968, "end_time": 1769551441.15, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09250451814464003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7076982232779687, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 1.326754670682735, 0.0, 1.225251954589848, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 1.8627345742781323, 0.26255575529169206, 0.16103927879919655, 1.0187180858658749, 0.07670684254184146, 0.1548347296866116, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 349, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. " }, { "id": 41497, "title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?", "short_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "url_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "slug": "will-sam-hammond-win-his-bet-with-john-luttig-about-gdp-growth", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T19:37:28.974599Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T19:54:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-18T07:54:08.624023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T19:55:45.915474Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32929, "name": "2026-2035 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2035_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41226, "title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T19:37:28.974980Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[According to Samuel Hammond](https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/2008295622927909232), Senior Economist at [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.thefai.org/), Hammond agreed to a bet with John Luttig, a partner at [Founders Fund](https://foundersfund.com/), on June 6, 2023, regarding economic growth in the United States. Hammond bets that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth basis, while Luttig bets against. Hammond [recently outlined](/) his expectations of faster growth due to AI in the next decade, a position he has [held since around the time the bet was made](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779).\n\nLuttig has written pieces from the [time of the bet](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai) and [recently](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hypercapitalism-and-the-ai-talent) suggesting that AI is likely to continue advancing and could lead to significant changes, though has generally taken a more cautious and uncertain position around its effects and trajectory. No public statements by Luttig explicitly addressing the bet were identified.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Samuel Hammond wins his bet with John Luttig that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth rate basis. The question resolves as **Yes** if Hammond and Luttig mutually agree that Hammond won, and as **No** if they mutually agree that Luttig won. If they appoint a third party to adjudicate, it will resolve according to the resulting decision.\n\nIn the event the bet is not publicly resolved within 6 months of the relevant data becoming available, or in the event one or both parties refuse to acknowledge a winner or void the bet, Metaculus may resolve this question according to the published data.", "fine_print": "Real US GDP growth of >5% on on a 5-year CAGR basis between 2028-2033 is equivalent to the US GDP increasing by 27.628% in real terms from 2028 to 2033.", "short_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "post_id": 41497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768722838.357941, "end_time": 1776193115.214, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768722838.357941, "end_time": 1776193115.214, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.3232071634348864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5552725971300316, 0.0, 1.60956401362689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Samuel Hammond](https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/2008295622927909232), Senior Economist at [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.thefai.org/), Hammond agreed to a bet with John Luttig, a partner at [Founders Fund](https://foundersfund.com/), on June 6, 2023, regarding economic growth in the United States. Hammond bets that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth basis, while Luttig bets against. Hammond [recently outlined](/) his expectations of faster growth due to AI in the next decade, a position he has [held since around the time the bet was made](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779).\n\nLuttig has written pieces from the [time of the bet](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai) and [recently](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hypercapitalism-and-the-ai-talent) suggesting that AI is likely to continue advancing and could lead to significant changes, though has generally taken a more cautious and uncertain position around its effects and trajectory. No public statements by Luttig explicitly addressing the bet were identified." } ] }
