Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=400
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=380", "results": [ { "id": 36707, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.623514Z", "published_at": "2025-04-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:50.368962Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36138, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.623514Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T19:24:40.629601Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36707, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744388672.898269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744388672.898269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31492079149048197 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2293426566480452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36704, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.467353Z", "published_at": "2025-04-11T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:48.114127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36135, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.467353Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T19:25:02.390968Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744366803.813148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744366803.813148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3560909774954859 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36701, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.436868Z", "published_at": "2025-04-11T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:33.511721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36132, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.436868Z", "open_time": "2025-04-11T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T17:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T17:45:43.239876Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-11T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36695, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.249411Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:44.589497Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36126, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.249411Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T14:37:00.903042Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36692, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.078684Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:18.128731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36123, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:08.078684Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T19:24:26.258820Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36689, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.916712Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:44.767891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36120, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.916712Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T19:24:30.591958Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36680, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.679046Z", "published_at": "2025-04-09T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:21.395683Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36111, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.679046Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T17:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T17:44:54.987987Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36677, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.515557Z", "published_at": "2025-04-09T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:39.984524Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36108, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.515557Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T17:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T17:46:16.706478Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36674, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.353881Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:26.627035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36105, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:07.353881Z", "open_time": "2025-04-08T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T17:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T17:46:00.612350Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-09T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. 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He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36662, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-pierre-poilievre-become-prime-minister-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:06.972232Z", "published_at": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:01.423242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36093, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-07T18:51:06.972232Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T14:37:52.477397Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 36662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744068892.474503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744068892.474503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.40477072287129817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 36494, "title": "Will the US Constitution be amended to enable a third presidential term by Nov 2028?", "short_title": "US Constitution allows third term by Nov 2028?", "url_title": "US Constitution allows third term by Nov 2028?", "slug": "us-constitution-allows-third-term-by-nov-2028", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T19:01:24.534321Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:12:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-10T14:00:07.199816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:13:30.059248Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-08-11T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:12:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35929, "title": "Will the US Constitution be amended to enable a third presidential term by Nov 2028?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T19:01:24.534754Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:12:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:12:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-06-11T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 22nd amendment to the [US Constitution](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/full-text) states: \"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.\"\n\nHowever, Donald Trump has [stated](https://apnews.com/article/trump-third-term-constitution-22nd-amendment-efba31be02ee96b0ef68b17fe89b7578) his desire to serve a third term. See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36454/will-donald-trump-take-action-in-2026-to-seek-a-third-presidential-term/) which asks whether during 2026 Trump will take concrete action toward enabling a third term. In order to achieve his goal, Trump will need to either amend the Constitution or to blatantly violate it. This question asks about whether he will succeed at the former.\n\nThe next presidential election is scheduled for the 7th November 2028.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if, by November 7th 2028, the United States Constitution has been amended to allow a president to serve a third term, and negative if otherwise. The amendment must take effect by that date, not merely be proposed. \n\nAlternatively, a Supreme Court ruling that a third term is legal under the existing text of the 22nd Amendment will also resolve this positively.", "fine_print": "Resolution depends only on whether the Constitution is amended or not. It is irrelevant as to whether Trump, Obama, or any other former president actually runs for a third term. \n\nResolution does not depend on the exact form of the amendment to the constitution - for example whether the 22nd amendment is repealed entirely, or simply changed to read 'three times' instead of 'twice'. \n\nIn the event of a dispute over whether or not a purported amendment to the Constitution is legally valid, moderators may delay resolution for up to two years in order to await the judgement of the Supreme Court. \n\nIf this question is resolved by a Supreme Court ruling that re-interprets the current text of the 22nd Amendment to permit a third term, the ruling must be made by the 7th November 2028. A ruling after that date, even with retroactive effect, doesn't count. ", "post_id": 36494, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752155996.347285, "end_time": 1754376088.852201, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752155996.347285, "end_time": 1754376088.852201, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06478651855201105 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1124510215465873, 1.3723500498643162, 0.07560105912010007, 0.8511117471101488, 0.9089733746847104, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 2.0413793550880257, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.088218564506665, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 22nd amendment to the [US Constitution](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/full-text) states: \"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.\"\n\nHowever, Donald Trump has [stated](https://apnews.com/article/trump-third-term-constitution-22nd-amendment-efba31be02ee96b0ef68b17fe89b7578) his desire to serve a third term. See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36454/will-donald-trump-take-action-in-2026-to-seek-a-third-presidential-term/) which asks whether during 2026 Trump will take concrete action toward enabling a third term. In order to achieve his goal, Trump will need to either amend the Constitution or to blatantly violate it. This question asks about whether he will succeed at the former.\n\nThe next presidential election is scheduled for the 7th November 2028." }, { "id": 36490, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "slug": "will-the-iras-amptc-start-requiring-domestic-materials", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:50:55.229180Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T22:21:27.464383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:36.187241Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35925, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:50:55.229557Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:28:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).", "fine_print": "Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**", "post_id": 36490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753054930.851961, "end_time": 1753186073.47, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753054930.851961, "end_time": 1753186073.47, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12565328551495714 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.508519917065494, 0.3722069427882975, 0.2893506753269389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6182636241532072, 0.7492086006196257, 1.3454782249716168, 0.3113281612855452, 0.0, 2.763439252257603, 2.045338155688497, 0.7765402636551704, 0.04637161225326318, 0.2552400575020549, 1.208443074719491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.17678143067384963, 0.0, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03508073110718224, 0.0, 0.3570120404276606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47881739841599835, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36488, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-itc-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:01:04.994498Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T22:20:53.651024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:28:05.316693Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35923, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T01:01:04.994870Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Investment Tax Credits (ITC) described [26 U.S. Code § 48E](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-investment-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-48e/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those estabished by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for ITC only for specific categories of projects will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753054609.264587, "end_time": 1753213846.518014, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753054609.264587, "end_time": 1753213846.518014, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.17657824261854474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.031256855951900246, 0.18527705034115113, 0.7707428808760887, 0.9678011609580324, 1.3244131299780775, 2.7686304140771467, 0.8490490664964616, 1.2326178227199447, 0.8668714513010786, 0.09598373866460652, 0.416995399749728, 0.0, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.6267013766974849, 0.0, 0.6454430936411023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.03136017742843959, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029442748095555683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9313987301006592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5541459864739142 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 196, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36487, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-ptc-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090222Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T22:20:30.577909Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:32.442501Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T00:19:15.623351Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35922, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090572Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Production Tax Credits (PTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45Y](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-production-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45y/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those established by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for PTC only for specific categories will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753053933.851562, "end_time": 1753264850.200102, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753053933.851562, "end_time": 1753264850.200102, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1128816016435466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4596517665152903, 1.3896858686002922, 0.0, 0.15832791047994677, 0.6466425724863939, 3.146644793277561, 0.5305793101529589, 0.5910196847484603, 1.2491801586670332, 0.31231707178603585, 1.1244933139220117, 1.1149280819106617, 0.0, 0.38056383031887875, 1.4173538863269193, 0.604187100311688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551877698067269, 0.244712726673844, 0.04297263601330976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05403161900765602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03693695285416927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.04241110270749711, 0.0, 0.014318380015828209, 0.03173358396197871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04997991489646793, 0.025639130579011613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7349249771329066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06420789640327502, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.0, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.003037496846661492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003696163311486092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009651325883926231 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." } ] }
