Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=400
{ "count": 6268, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=380", "results": [ { "id": 39462, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "short_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "url_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "slug": "ukraine-revokes-passports-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.326996Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T14:40:00.252415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.716541Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38839, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:31.327400Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T13:09:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T14:39:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-04-30 12:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22560). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nShortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":22560,\"question_id\":22560}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Ukraine government has initiated a policy of revoking previously valid passports of Ukrainian men, deemed to be of draft age, who reside outside the country.\n\nIf no credible sources report such revocation before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This passport revocation announcement must describe the revocation as either nationwide or affecting at least 1,000 draft-eligible Ukrainian men abroad without proper military service documents.", "post_id": 39462, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759243131.519519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759243131.519519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15268977601895445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 23.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-04-30 12:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22560). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nShortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":22560,\"question_id\":22560}}`" }, { "id": 39460, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's AMPTC start requiring domestic materials?", "slug": "will-the-iras-amptc-start-requiring-domestic-materials", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.143575Z", "published_at": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T21:24:00.209568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.383415Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38837, "title": "In 2025, will IRA's Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (45Χ) start requiring the use of domestic materials or subcomponents?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:30.143980Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T19:53:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T21:23:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that introduces requirements for domestically-produced materials or subcomponents for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits (AMPTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45X](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/advanced-manufacturing-production-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45x/).", "fine_print": "Any requirement for domestic materials or subcomponents will resolve this question as **Yes.**", "post_id": 39460, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761168121.345784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761168121.345784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.41065619512030005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36490). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which established the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (AMPTC) for the domestic production of specific clean energy components.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36490,\"question_id\":35925}}`" }, { "id": 39451, "title": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?", "short_title": "Madrid housing >18%?", "url_title": "Madrid housing >18%?", "slug": "madrid-housing-18", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.133372Z", "published_at": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T19:28:00.330630Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.396321Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38828, "title": "Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:24.133769Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T17:57:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T19:27:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the sales price data published on the [ <u>Idealista portal</u> ](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), the average price of housing in the **city of Madrid** per square meter rises by more than 18% from December 2024 to December 2025. It will be answered as **No** if the increase is 18% or less, or if there is a decrease in prices.", "fine_print": "* At the time of writing this question, December 2024 prices are €4,952/m² according to the graph and table \"Historical variation in sales prices in Madrid\" in the resolution source. However, the increase will be calculated based on the December 2024 prices shown when the December 2025 data is published.\n * Nominal figures will be compared, without discounting the effect of inflation.\n\n • If Idealista has not published data for December 2025 by January 7, this question will be resolved based on the increase from November 2024 to November 2025. If this is not available, this question will be **cancelled**.", "post_id": 39451, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758741318.817087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758741318.817087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.42490717464204747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020}}`" }, { "id": 39450, "title": "Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?", "short_title": "Will Microsoft stock rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Microsoft stock rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-microsoft-stock-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:23.470154Z", "published_at": "2025-09-20T02:18:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T03:49:00.207297Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:23.869547Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-20T02:18:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38827, "title": "Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:23.470585Z", "open_time": "2025-09-20T02:18:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T03:48:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35575). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nMicrosoft is one of the largest technology companies in the world, known for its software products as well as its cloud platform. By 2024, Microsoft's share price is expected to rise by approximately 50%, driven by significant advances in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The company has integrated AI into all of its services, improving productivity tools and cloud solutions, consolidating its position as a leader in the AI sector.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35575,\"question_id\":35025}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Microsoft's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $421.50, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.", "fine_print": "* If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.", "post_id": 39450, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758339388.20663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.805 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758339388.20663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.805 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19499999999999995, 0.805 ], "means": [ 0.7765049087168432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 17.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35575). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nMicrosoft is one of the largest technology companies in the world, known for its software products as well as its cloud platform. By 2024, Microsoft's share price is expected to rise by approximately 50%, driven by significant advances in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The company has integrated AI into all of its services, improving productivity tools and cloud solutions, consolidating its position as a leader in the AI sector.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35575,\"question_id\":35025}}`" }, { "id": 39449, "title": "Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?", "short_title": "Growth in Spain vs. Eurozone?", "url_title": "Growth in Spain vs. Eurozone?", "slug": "growth-in-spain-vs-eurozone", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:22.824888Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T16:24:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T17:55:00.469021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:23.166119Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-22T16:24:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38826, "title": "Will Spain's economy grow more than the Eurozone's between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:22.825281Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T16:24:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T17:54:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35569). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSpain and the Eurozone publish their GDP figures quarterly via <u>Eurostat</u> . The relative growth of the Spanish economy compared to the Eurozone average is an indicator of the competitiveness and resilience of both regions. Between 2023 and 2024 (Q3), Spain grew by 3.5% compared to 0.9% for the Eurozone ([ <u>Eurostat</u> ](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35569,\"question_id\":35019}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to [ <u>official Eurostat data</u> ](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators), Spain's real GDP growth (year-on-year percentage change from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025) exceeds aggregate Eurozone growth over the same period. It will be resolved as **No** if Eurozone growth is equal to or greater.", "fine_print": "• If data for Q3 2025 is not available by January 7, the question will be **void**.\n\n • If Eurostat does not publish year-on-year data, the resolution will be calculated on the basis of quarterly data.", "post_id": 39449, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758561842.88661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758561842.88661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7653704522570345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 20.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 12.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35569). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSpain and the Eurozone publish their GDP figures quarterly via <u>Eurostat</u> . The relative growth of the Spanish economy compared to the Eurozone average is an indicator of the competitiveness and resilience of both regions. Between 2023 and 2024 (Q3), Spain grew by 3.5% compared to 0.9% for the Eurozone ([ <u>Eurostat</u> ](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-06122024-ap#fragment-15944082-grio-inline-nav-8)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35569,\"question_id\":35019}}`" }, { "id": 39447, "title": "Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "FDA flu vaccine approval for 2025-2026?", "url_title": "FDA flu vaccine approval for 2025-2026?", "slug": "fda-flu-vaccine-approval-for-2025-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:21.661258Z", "published_at": "2025-09-15T06:51:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T08:22:00.198208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:21.916865Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-15T06:51:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38824, "title": "Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:21.661657Z", "open_time": "2025-09-15T06:51:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T08:21:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-04 21:38:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35582). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn February 26, 2025, the FDA unexpectedly canceled its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting that was scheduled for March 2025. This meeting is typically held annually to select the influenza virus strains to be included in the upcoming season's flu vaccines for the United States.\n\nThe FDA has maintained an uninterrupted annual approval process for seasonal influenza vaccines since 1973. Each year, the FDA follows a consistent timeline for approving updated flu vaccine formulations based on recommendations about which influenza strains are likely to circulate during the upcoming flu season. The strain selection process typically occurs in spring to give vaccine manufacturers sufficient time to produce shots for fall distribution.\n\nThe cancellation coincides with other significant changes in U.S. public health policy:\n\n* In January 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to begin withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO)\n* Federal health officials were subsequently ordered to stop communicating with the WHO\n* A CDC vaccine advisory committee meeting was also recently postponed\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35582,\"question_id\":35030}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the United States Food and Drug Administration approves at least one seasonal influenza vaccine formulation specifically for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025.\n\nThe question will resolve as **NO** if the FDA does not approve any seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 season before October 1, 2025.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For resolution purposes, a \"seasonal influenza vaccine\" refers to any vaccine formulation specifically developed for the 2025-2026 influenza season. This excludes previously approved vaccines that might be used off-label or as substitutes in the absence of a newly formulated vaccine.\n\nIf the FDA approves a multi-year influenza vaccine that explicitly covers the 2025-2026 season, this will count as a **YES** resolution.", "post_id": 39447, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757924347.040171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757924347.040171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.065, 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8581143553737349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 14.0, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 17.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-04 21:38:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35582). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn February 26, 2025, the FDA unexpectedly canceled its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting that was scheduled for March 2025. This meeting is typically held annually to select the influenza virus strains to be included in the upcoming season's flu vaccines for the United States.\n\nThe FDA has maintained an uninterrupted annual approval process for seasonal influenza vaccines since 1973. Each year, the FDA follows a consistent timeline for approving updated flu vaccine formulations based on recommendations about which influenza strains are likely to circulate during the upcoming flu season. The strain selection process typically occurs in spring to give vaccine manufacturers sufficient time to produce shots for fall distribution.\n\nThe cancellation coincides with other significant changes in U.S. public health policy:\n\n* In January 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order to begin withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO)\n* Federal health officials were subsequently ordered to stop communicating with the WHO\n* A CDC vaccine advisory committee meeting was also recently postponed\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35582,\"question_id\":35030}}`" }, { "id": 39445, "title": "Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", be in effect on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will California's 2018 Prop 12 be in effect on Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will California's 2018 Prop 12 be in effect on Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-californias-2018-prop-12-be-in-effect-on-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:20.092104Z", "published_at": "2025-10-19T09:12:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T10:43:00.281162Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:20.597545Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-19T09:12:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38822, "title": "Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", be in effect on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:20.092500Z", "open_time": "2025-10-19T09:12:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-19T10:42:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31110). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) is a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).\n\nIn [*National Pork Producers Council v. Ross*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross), a group of farmers and corporations in the pork industry, led by the [National Pork Producers Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council \"National Pork Producers Council\") and the [American Farm Bureau Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Farm_Bureau_Federation \"American Farm Bureau Federation\"), sued the California Department of Food and Agriculture, led by [Karen Ross](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Ross \"Karen Ross\"). They asserted that the proposition violates the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause \"Dormant Commerce Clause\"), which prohibits laws that impact interstate commerce. The Biden administration [asked the court](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-california-pork-law-mandating-more-space-for-pigs/) to overturn the law in order to protect the country's pork industry, but the Supreme Court rejected the Dormant Commerce Clause argument and [upheld](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-468_5if6.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Proposition 12.\n\nAs of 2024, House Republicans [are attempting](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353393/farm-bill-republicans-prop-12-gestation-crates-pork) to overturn Proposition 12, via the the latest [United States farm bill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_farm_bill).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31110,\"question_id\":30840}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if California’s 2018 Proposition 12, \"Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act\", is in effect on January 1, 2026. This question will resolve as **No** if it is not in effect for any reason, including but not limited to being overturned by a federal bill, being suspended by a court, or repealed by the California legislature.", "fine_print": "If any portion of Proposition 12 is not in effect then the question will as **No**. The official ballot summary of Proposition 12 is:\n\n> * Establishes new minimum space requirements for confining veal calves, breeding pigs, and egg-laying hens.\n> * Requires egg-laying hens be raised in cage-free environment after December 31, 2021.\n> * Prohibits certain commercial sales of specified meat and egg products derived from animals confined in noncomplying manner.\n> * Defines sales violations as unfair competition.\n> * Creates good faith defense for sellers relying upon written certification by suppliers that meat and egg products comply with new confinement standards.\n> * Requires State of California to issue implementing regulations.\n\n(Source: Page 68 of the [California Official Voter Information Guide](https://vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/2018/general/pdf/complete-vig.pdf) for 2018)\n\nThe US House of Representative's Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024 (also known as the Farm Bill) is an example of legislation that, if it were enacted, would count. In section 12007 (viewable [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8467/text)) it says:\n\n> \\[N]o State or subdivision thereof may enact or enforce, directly or indirectly, as a condition for sale or consumption, any condition or standard of production on products derived from covered livestock not physically raised in such State or subdivision that is in addition to, or different from, the conditions or standards of production in the State in which the production occurs.\n\nIn its definition of \"covered livestock,\" the House Farm Bill specifies that covered livestock includes any domestic animal raised for the purpose of slaughter for human consumption, but it specifically does not include domestic animals raised for egg production. If this were enacted this would count for purposes of this question, since it nullifies California's ability to enforce Proposition 12's space requirements for pigs and veal calves, even though it still allows California to enforce Prop 12's space requirements for egg-laying hens.", "post_id": 39445, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760870377.539629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760870377.539629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7915762803637665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 18.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 20.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31110). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) is a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).\n\nIn [*National Pork Producers Council v. Ross*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council_v._Ross), a group of farmers and corporations in the pork industry, led by the [National Pork Producers Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Pork_Producers_Council \"National Pork Producers Council\") and the [American Farm Bureau Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Farm_Bureau_Federation \"American Farm Bureau Federation\"), sued the California Department of Food and Agriculture, led by [Karen Ross](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karen_Ross \"Karen Ross\"). They asserted that the proposition violates the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause \"Dormant Commerce Clause\"), which prohibits laws that impact interstate commerce. The Biden administration [asked the court](https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/supreme-court-rejects-challenge-to-california-pork-law-mandating-more-space-for-pigs/) to overturn the law in order to protect the country's pork industry, but the Supreme Court rejected the Dormant Commerce Clause argument and [upheld](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-468_5if6.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) Proposition 12.\n\nAs of 2024, House Republicans [are attempting](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353393/farm-bill-republicans-prop-12-gestation-crates-pork) to overturn Proposition 12, via the the latest [United States farm bill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_farm_bill).\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31110,\"question_id\":30840}}`" }, { "id": 39437, "title": "Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?", "short_title": "FTC non-compete ban enacted in 2025?", "url_title": "FTC non-compete ban enacted in 2025?", "slug": "ftc-non-compete-ban-enacted-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:15.152037Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T05:00:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T06:31:00.309764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:15.411968Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38814, "title": "Will the FTC's proposed ban on non-compete agreements for most workers be enacted in more or less its current form before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:15.152606Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T06:30:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-01 09:31:03 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31227). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn April 2024, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued a [final rule](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes) banning most non-compete agreements in the United States, claiming that this would generate over 8,500 new businesses each year, raise worker wages, lower health care costs, and boost innovation. The rule would prohibit employers from entering into or enforcing non-compete clauses with workers, including employees and independent contractors, with limited exceptions for senior executives. Employers would be required to rescind existing non-compete agreements and notify affected workers that such clauses are no longer in effect.\n\nThe rule was scheduled to take effect on September 4, 2024, however, on August 20, 2024, Judge Ada Brown of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas [blocked the rule](https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2024/10/11/after-judge-blocks-ftcs-worker-non-compete-ban-now-what/) nationwide, ruling that the FTC lacked the statutory authority to implement such a ban and that the rule was \"arbitrary and capricious\". On October 18, 2024, the FTC [filed an appeal](https://www.psca.org/news/psca-news/2024/10/where-does-the-ftcs-non-compete-ban-stand-now/) with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31227,\"question_id\":30897}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if FTC's [ban on noncompetes](https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/rules/noncompete-rule) is enacted before January 1, 2026 with at most minor changes.\n\nAs of December 2024, the current form of the regulation would apply to all workers at companies which are under FTC's jurisdiction, with a single exception of individuals earning more than $151,164 who are in a \"policy-making position\". It also applies to both existing and future non-compete agreements.\n\nMinor changes are defined as amendments in the current exceptions that affect less than 10% of workers under FTC's jurisdiction (as judged by Metaculus), as changes to the notice requirements employers should give to their employees, or other changes of a similar scope as judged by Metaculus admins.\n\nIf the rule is not enacted before January 1, 2026 or if it is enacted with other changes, including but not limited to changes that affect at least 10% of workers or changes to if the rule would be applied to existing contracts at all, would resolve this question as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the first day the corresponding rule is enacted. If the rule is enacted and then subsequently amended or blocked, the resolution of this question will not be affected.", "post_id": 39437, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759127063.79037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759127063.79037, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08694910929441392 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 29.0, 13.0, 4.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-01 09:31:03 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31227). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn April 2024, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) issued a [final rule](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes) banning most non-compete agreements in the United States, claiming that this would generate over 8,500 new businesses each year, raise worker wages, lower health care costs, and boost innovation. The rule would prohibit employers from entering into or enforcing non-compete clauses with workers, including employees and independent contractors, with limited exceptions for senior executives. Employers would be required to rescind existing non-compete agreements and notify affected workers that such clauses are no longer in effect.\n\nThe rule was scheduled to take effect on September 4, 2024, however, on August 20, 2024, Judge Ada Brown of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas [blocked the rule](https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2024/10/11/after-judge-blocks-ftcs-worker-non-compete-ban-now-what/) nationwide, ruling that the FTC lacked the statutory authority to implement such a ban and that the rule was \"arbitrary and capricious\". On October 18, 2024, the FTC [filed an appeal](https://www.psca.org/news/psca-news/2024/10/where-does-the-ftcs-non-compete-ban-stand-now/) with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31227,\"question_id\":30897}}`" }, { "id": 39436, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)", "short_title": "Which New Company In The S&P500 Q3 2025?", "url_title": "Which New Company In The S&P500 Q3 2025?", "slug": "which-new-company-in-the-sp500-q3-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:14.582538Z", "published_at": "2025-09-12T01:40:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T03:11:00.148397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:14.864969Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-12T01:40:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38813, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (ARES)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:14.582960Z", "open_time": "2025-09-12T01:40:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T03:10:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38681). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFive possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trade_Desk) A technology company providing a platform for data-driven digital advertising management and optimization.\n* [HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinhood_Markets) A widely recognized fintech firm with significant retail investor engagement and growing product diversification.\n* [DDOG (Datadog, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datadog) A cloud-native monitoring and analytics platform that has shown strong growth and relevance in enterprise infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38681,\"question_id\":37913}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'ARES'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if the corresponding company is announced to be officially added to the S\\&P 500 Index before October 1, 2025, according to [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/).", "fine_print": "* Subquestions will resolve based on official announcements from S\\&P Dow Jones Indices that a company will be added. The actual inclusion of the company to the index is not required for resolution.\n* Potential retractions or cancellations of an inclusion announcement will not affect the resolution of subquestions.", "post_id": 39436, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757646461.991248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757646461.991248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11831189442172949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 24.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38681). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFive possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trade_Desk) A technology company providing a platform for data-driven digital advertising management and optimization.\n* [HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinhood_Markets) A widely recognized fintech firm with significant retail investor engagement and growing product diversification.\n* [DDOG (Datadog, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datadog) A cloud-native monitoring and analytics platform that has shown strong growth and relevance in enterprise infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38681,\"question_id\":37913}}`" }, { "id": 39435, "title": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVDA outperform SPY in 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVDA outperform SPY in 2025?", "slug": "will-nvda-outperform-spy-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:13.968427Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T09:17:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T10:48:00.355321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:14.246869Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T09:17:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38812, "title": "Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:13.968859Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T09:17:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T10:47:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31307). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe S\\&P 500 is a market cap weighted index of 500 of the largest companies in the United State stock market. These 500 companies [cover](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview) approximately 80% of the total stock market capitalization in the United States.\n\nIt is notoriously difficult for single stocks to beat the S\\&P 500 index. In 2024, [SPY](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122215/spy-spdr-sp-500-trust-etf.asp), an Exchange Traded Fund designed to track the performance of the S\\&P 500, returned 24.9%. Of the 503 stocks in the fund, 346 did worse than 24.9%, meaning 69% of stocks in the S\\&P underperformed the index. (See list at [Finviz](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111\\&f=idx_sp500).) Studies have shown that this is not unusual, and that over the long term the median individual stock underperforms a passive strategy of buying and holding an index fund. (See for example [here](https://exencialwealth.com/resources/looking-under-the-hood-of-indexes) and page 6 of [this pdf.](https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf))\n\nAt the time this question was written, Nvidia, manufacturer of hardware and software for [accelerated computing](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/what-is-accelerated-computing/) and [artificial intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html), has massively outperformed the S\\&P 500 since 2015. Since that year, its average annualized return has been 75.6%, as compared with 13.0% for SPY: \n\n\n\n(Source: [PortfolioVisualizer](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y\\&sl=1N1gQs4wZpgRHUUOWsN55o))\n\nFor more information, please see:\n\n* VisualCapitalist: [The Pyramid of S\\&P 500 Returns (1874-2024)](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874/)\n* Yahoo Finance: [Prediction: This Will Be the First Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock To Reach a \\$4 Trillion Valuation in 2025](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-first-artificial-intelligence-ai-223800235.html)\n* Business Insider: [Nvidia gained \\$2 trillion in its stellar 2024 rally. Here's what Wall Street sees for the chip titan this year.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-forecast-nvda-price-prediciton-blackwell-gpu-ai-chips-2025-1)\n* Andy Lin's Long-term Stock Investment Blog: [Nvidia's new business set to grow its share price](https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2024/09/04/nvidias-new-business/)\n* [NVIDIA's SWOT analysis: ai giant's stock poised for growth amid challenges](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/nvidias-swot-analysis-ai-giants-stock-poised-for-growth-amid-challenges-93CH-3794759)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31307,\"question_id\":30945}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S\\&P 500 in 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S\\&P 500, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe resolution sources are: \n\n* The Yahoo Finance history page for [NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/).[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/)\n* The Yahoo Finance history for the [SPDR S\\&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/history/)", "fine_print": "Each stock's return for 2025 will be calculated by taking its adjusted close at Yahoo Finance for the final trading day of 2025, dividing it by the adjusted close price for December 31, 2024, subtracting 1 and then multiplying by 100%. For example:\n\n* In the final trading day of 2024, Nvidia's adj. close price was $134.29. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $49.51. Its return for the year was 171.2%\n* In the final trading day of 2024, SPY's adj. close price was $586.08. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $469.29. Its return for the year was 24.9%", "post_id": 39435, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760006610.98405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760006610.98405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.275, 0.725 ], "means": [ 0.7018299294572915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31307). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe S\\&P 500 is a market cap weighted index of 500 of the largest companies in the United State stock market. These 500 companies [cover](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview) approximately 80% of the total stock market capitalization in the United States.\n\nIt is notoriously difficult for single stocks to beat the S\\&P 500 index. In 2024, [SPY](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122215/spy-spdr-sp-500-trust-etf.asp), an Exchange Traded Fund designed to track the performance of the S\\&P 500, returned 24.9%. Of the 503 stocks in the fund, 346 did worse than 24.9%, meaning 69% of stocks in the S\\&P underperformed the index. (See list at [Finviz](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111\\&f=idx_sp500).) Studies have shown that this is not unusual, and that over the long term the median individual stock underperforms a passive strategy of buying and holding an index fund. (See for example [here](https://exencialwealth.com/resources/looking-under-the-hood-of-indexes) and page 6 of [this pdf.](https://www.chase.com/content/dam/privatebanking/en/mobile/documents/eotm/eotm_2014_09_02_agonyescstasy.pdf))\n\nAt the time this question was written, Nvidia, manufacturer of hardware and software for [accelerated computing](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/what-is-accelerated-computing/) and [artificial intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html), has massively outperformed the S\\&P 500 since 2015. Since that year, its average annualized return has been 75.6%, as compared with 13.0% for SPY: \n\n\n\n(Source: [PortfolioVisualizer](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y\\&sl=1N1gQs4wZpgRHUUOWsN55o))\n\nFor more information, please see:\n\n* VisualCapitalist: [The Pyramid of S\\&P 500 Returns (1874-2024)](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp-500-annual-returns-since-1874/)\n* Yahoo Finance: [Prediction: This Will Be the First Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock To Reach a \\$4 Trillion Valuation in 2025](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-first-artificial-intelligence-ai-223800235.html)\n* Business Insider: [Nvidia gained \\$2 trillion in its stellar 2024 rally. Here's what Wall Street sees for the chip titan this year.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-forecast-nvda-price-prediciton-blackwell-gpu-ai-chips-2025-1)\n* Andy Lin's Long-term Stock Investment Blog: [Nvidia's new business set to grow its share price](https://www.granitefirm.com/blog/us/2024/09/04/nvidias-new-business/)\n* [NVIDIA's SWOT analysis: ai giant's stock poised for growth amid challenges](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/nvidias-swot-analysis-ai-giants-stock-poised-for-growth-amid-challenges-93CH-3794759)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31307,\"question_id\":30945}}`" }, { "id": 39431, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "short_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "url_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:11.364413Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T00:05:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:36:00.327753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:11.838558Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-24T00:05:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38808, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:11.364806Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T00:05:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T01:35:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-08-20 13:21:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27350). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":27350,\"question_id\":27350}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before January 1, 2026. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorized](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will be defined as the [internationally-recognized boundaries prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including Ukraine's 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). Ukrainian-held territory will include any territory (including in Russia) occupied by Ukrainian troops according to the Institute for the Study of War at [this link](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").\n\nExternal territory occupied by Ukrainian troops includes any category marked by ISW as occupied by Ukrainian forces, including but not limited to: claimed, assessed, and reported.", "post_id": 39431, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761269473.499509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761269473.499509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07837812081632793 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 12.0, 8.0, 13.0, 4.0, 11.0, 1.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-08-20 13:21:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27350). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":27350,\"question_id\":27350}}`" }, { "id": 39427, "title": "Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?", "short_title": "Will Bitcoin rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bitcoin rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:08.718706Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T11:27:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T12:58:00.170069Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:09.208394Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:27:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38804, "title": "Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:08.719108Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:27:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T12:57:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35573). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBitcoin is the most well-known cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization. Its price is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly due to regulatory, demand, and speculative factors. In 2024, bitcoin is up by approximately 125%. In 2025, President Donald Trump has taken <u>a [ pro-crypto stance</u> ](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), issuing an executive order to promote digital assets and explore new regulations. The Trump administration aims to position the US as a leader in digital financial technology, which could boost cryptocurrencies.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35573,\"question_id\":35023}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the price of Bitcoin at the end of December 31st, 2025 (or the last available day of record) is above $93,429.20, according to the Closing value on its [ <u>page on CoinMarketCap</u> ](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.", "fine_print": "* If CoinMarketCap does not publish this data by January 7th, 2026, this question will be resolved based on [ <u>CoinGecko data</u> ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). If CoinGecko also does not publish this data, this question will be resolved based on a credible alternative source.", "post_id": 39427, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758629906.764414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6987500000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758629906.764414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6987500000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.738770812813775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 14.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35573). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBitcoin is the most well-known cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization. Its price is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly due to regulatory, demand, and speculative factors. In 2024, bitcoin is up by approximately 125%. In 2025, President Donald Trump has taken <u>a [ pro-crypto stance</u> ](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), issuing an executive order to promote digital assets and explore new regulations. The Trump administration aims to position the US as a leader in digital financial technology, which could boost cryptocurrencies.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35573,\"question_id\":35023}}`" }, { "id": 39426, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Keir Starmer)", "short_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "url_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "slug": "winner-of-next-labour-leadership-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:08.091759Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T23:17:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T14:35:06.913238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:08.378651Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T23:17:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38803, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Keir Starmer)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:08.092168Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T23:17:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T00:47:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11826}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Keir Starmer'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Labour Party leadership election following the election on April 4, 2020. All other candidates will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; more options may be added in the future.", "fine_print": "If the Labour party ceases to exist, or if the next Labour party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 39426, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760402682.949506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.141 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760402682.949506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.141 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.40370056903937107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11826}}`" }, { "id": 39424, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-38-trillion-on-september-30-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.839669Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.605824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:07.136335Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38801, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38 trillion on September 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.840094Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:17:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:47:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-11 11:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39115). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39115,\"question_id\":38445}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for September 30, 2025 is less than \\$38,000,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 39424, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756908668.518388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.888 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756908668.518388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.888 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6879252025964165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-11 11:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39115). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFox News: [Fetterman joins fiscal hawks to sound alarm as national debt nears staggering \\$37T](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fetterman-joins-fiscal-hawks-sound-alarm-national-debt-nears-staggering-37t)\n\n> The U.S. national debt is rapidly [approaching \\$37 trillion](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-national-debt-tracker) with no signs of slowing down as President Donald Trump's \"big, beautiful bill\" is projected to raise budget deficits by \\$2.4 trillion over a decade, according to the [<u>Congressional Budget Office</u>](https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/congress) (CBO) dynamic analysis. \n\n> Senators from both parties sounded the alarm on the staggering debt crisis in interviews with Fox News Digital on Capitol Hill. \n\n> \"I'm very, very deeply concerned about that,\" Sen. [John Fetterman](https://foxnews.com/person/f/lt-gov-john-fetterman), D-Pa., said. \"I think that's gonna be part of the next big crisis, where we are gonna have to confront our national debt because it wasn't that long ago that a trillion was unthinkable, and now that there's 40 trillion approaching in our debt, we really have to address it, honestly.\"\n\n> Trump signed his \"one big beautiful bill\" by Congress' self-imposed July 4 deadline. It includes the fulfillment of Trump's key campaign promises through the reconciliation process, including tax cuts and reforms to immigration, energy and Medicaid.\n\n> But conservative fiscal hawks, including Rep. [Thomas Massie](https://foxnews.com/person/m/thomas-massie), R-Ky., who voted no and regularly sports a national debt clock badge, threatened to derail its passage as they spoke out against its contribution to the national debt.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows: \n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39115,\"question_id\":38445}}`" }, { "id": 39423, "title": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-boeing-file-for-bankruptcy-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.262475Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T18:03:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T19:34:00.203430Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.519066Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:03:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38800, "title": "Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.262928Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:03:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T19:33:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-02 17:41:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29290). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Boeing file for bankruptcy?\n\nIn recent years, [Boeing has faced significant challenges](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239132703/boeing-timeline-737-max-9-controversy-door-plug) that have raised questions about its financial stability. The aerospace giant, once a symbol of American innovation and a major player in both commercial and defense aviation, has [struggled to recover from a series of setbacks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/boeings-latest-strike-setback-may-cost-the-company-billions). The 737 MAX crisis, which involved two fatal crashes and the global grounding of the aircraft, severely damaged Boeing’s reputation and led to billions of dollars in losses. On top of that, the [COVID-19 pandemic decimated the aviation industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/taking-stock-of-the-pandemics-impact-on-global-aviation), causing a sharp decline in demand for new planes and further straining the company's finances.\n\nWhile Boeing has worked to address these issues, including returning the 737 MAX to service and resuming deliveries of its other aircraft, it continues to face significant hurdles. Supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, and delayed deliveries have exacerbated the company's financial pressures. In 2023, [Boeing reported mounting debt, though the company remains optimistic about the future](https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2023/Boeing-Forecasts-Resiliency-and-Increased-Growth-for-Aircraft-Finance/default.aspx), with increased defense contracts and a recovery in air travel demand. Most recently, the company has [faced ongoing strikes that began September 2024 over pay and pensions](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-braces-union-vote-wage-deal-that-could-end-costly-strike-2024-10-23/), with [experts estimating the action to have so far cost the company nearly $5 billion](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/13/business/boeing-strike-one-month-five-billion-dollars/index.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29290,\"question_id\":29187}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Boeing files for Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy, or otherwise makes a formal legal filing to initiate liquidation proceedings.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39423, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760815983.64831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760815983.64831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1234781860316384 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 15.0, 9.0, 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 3.0, 4.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-02 17:41:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29290). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Boeing file for bankruptcy?\n\nIn recent years, [Boeing has faced significant challenges](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239132703/boeing-timeline-737-max-9-controversy-door-plug) that have raised questions about its financial stability. The aerospace giant, once a symbol of American innovation and a major player in both commercial and defense aviation, has [struggled to recover from a series of setbacks](https://www.tipranks.com/news/boeings-latest-strike-setback-may-cost-the-company-billions). The 737 MAX crisis, which involved two fatal crashes and the global grounding of the aircraft, severely damaged Boeing’s reputation and led to billions of dollars in losses. On top of that, the [COVID-19 pandemic decimated the aviation industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/taking-stock-of-the-pandemics-impact-on-global-aviation), causing a sharp decline in demand for new planes and further straining the company's finances.\n\nWhile Boeing has worked to address these issues, including returning the 737 MAX to service and resuming deliveries of its other aircraft, it continues to face significant hurdles. Supply chain disruptions, rising production costs, and delayed deliveries have exacerbated the company's financial pressures. In 2023, [Boeing reported mounting debt, though the company remains optimistic about the future](https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2023/Boeing-Forecasts-Resiliency-and-Increased-Growth-for-Aircraft-Finance/default.aspx), with increased defense contracts and a recovery in air travel demand. Most recently, the company has [faced ongoing strikes that began September 2024 over pay and pensions](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-braces-union-vote-wage-deal-that-could-end-costly-strike-2024-10-23/), with [experts estimating the action to have so far cost the company nearly $5 billion](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/13/business/boeing-strike-one-month-five-billion-dollars/index.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29290,\"question_id\":29187}}`" }, { "id": 39422, "title": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?", "short_title": "Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?", "url_title": "Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?", "slug": "leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:00.714960Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T01:15:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T02:46:00.494794Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:01.000399Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T01:15:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38799, "title": "Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:00.715363Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T01:15:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T02:45:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTitle 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n\n> any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n\nBeing designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n\nAs of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n\n> (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> \n> (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> \n> (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> \n> (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> \n> (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> \n> (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n\n1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n* If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n* Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39422, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760323306.173314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760323306.173314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.16192624083673665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 7.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 3.0, 14.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTitle 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n\n> any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n\nBeing designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n\nAs of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n\n> (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> \n> (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> \n> (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> \n> (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> \n> (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> \n> (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980}}`" }, { "id": 39421, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "short_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "url_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-exceed-350-for-september-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:00.012370Z", "published_at": "2025-09-09T06:55:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T08:26:00.097689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:00.273760Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T06:55:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38798, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:08:00.012775Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T06:55:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T08:25:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39312). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the group’s chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39312,\"question_id\":38665}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 350 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of September 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39421, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757406307.464047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.628 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757406307.464047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.628 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.372, 0.628 ], "means": [ 0.5950444665822148 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39312). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the group’s chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39312,\"question_id\":38665}}`" }, { "id": 39420, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "short_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "url_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "slug": "dpa-re-authorization-before-oct-25", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.467526Z", "published_at": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T13:07:00.118290Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.759075Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38797, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.467942Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 12:14:31 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38877). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38877,\"question_id\":38194}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before October 1, 2025 (EDT), the President of the United States signs a public law that extends any of the statutory authorities created by the original Defense Production Act of 1950 (Pub. L. 81-774, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 4501 et seq.) past their current sunset of 30 September 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39420, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757422544.257083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757422544.257083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6961922209727341 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 12:14:31 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38877). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38877,\"question_id\":38194}}`" }, { "id": 39415, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "short_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "url_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "slug": "gpu-tracking-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.656627Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T21:17:00.138476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.897509Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38792, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.657054Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17094). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTraining large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17094,\"question_id\":17094}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires purchasers of a large number of GPUs to report their usage in the training of large AI models, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Each point in the resolution will be interpreted broadly:\n\n* Can be any reasonable definition of GPUs, such as all NVIDIA or ARM GPUs covered by the export controls established in 2022. If training of large AI systems can be done by a wider set of chips, resolves based on whether such chips are generally implicated by these laws.\n\n* \"Large number of GPUs\" here can be any reasonable threshold, such as >100 GPUs, or >$100k of GPUs.\n\n* \"training of large AI models\" will be interpreted broadly - for example, requiring firmware that tracks whether _any_ ML training is occurring would qualify. However, the regulations must apply at the level of chip monitoring - it is not sufficient that the purchasers of GPUs must summarize their usage patterns qualitatively.\n\n* \"Report\" here means that the usage must be reported to some governing authority, at a level of detail such that the governing authorities can clearly determine if large AI models have been trained using the chips.", "post_id": 39415, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761858870.815693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.188 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761858870.815693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.188 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.17825361462069567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 8.0, 4.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17094). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTraining large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17094,\"question_id\":17094}}`" }, { "id": 39413, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "short_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "url_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "slug": "will-an-h5-pheic-be-declared-by-the-who-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.525374Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T03:03:00.182273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.769654Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T08:13:48.713323Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38790, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.525773Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30763). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30763,\"question_id\":30523}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any H5 virus to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Per the WHO's [Q\\&A documentation](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees):\n\n> A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nIf WHO changes this definition in a manner that a panel of Metaculus Admins determines to be substantial, this question may be either clarified or annulled.\n\nFor purposes of this question, any subtype of H5 (e.g., H5N1, H5Nx) is acceptable if encompassed by the PHEIC.\n\nThe intention is for this question to resolve based on any PHEIC declaration by the WHO. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).", "post_id": 39413, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759978703.602022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759978703.602022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14184280913596006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 2.0, 9.0, 4.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 22.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30763). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30763,\"question_id\":30523}}`" } ] }
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