Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=400
{ "count": 5887, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=380", "results": [ { "id": 38332, "title": "Will the government of Uruguay announce that its president, Yamandú Orsi, will attend the BRICS summit in July 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-government-of-uruguay-announce-that-its-president-yamandu-orsi-will-attend-the-brics-summit-in-july-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.592116Z", "published_at": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.482746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:56:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37608, "title": "Will the government of Uruguay announce that its president, Yamandú Orsi, will attend the BRICS summit in July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.592116Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:15:19.019609Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Lula invites Mexico, Colombia, and Uruguay to BRICS Summit](https://en.mercopress.com/2025/03/04/lula-invites-mexico-colombia-and-uruguay-to-brics-summit#google_vignette) | [Uruguay’s participation at the BRICS summit still up in the air](https://www.plenglish.com/news/2025/03/02/uruguays-participation-at-the-brics-summit-still-up-in-the-air/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025 the government of Uruguay, or anyone speaking on its behalf, issues any sort of public communication (written or oral) confirming its acceptance of the invitation for President Yamandú Orsi to attend in person the BRICS Summit scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025.", "fine_print": "Since the summit will be held after this question resolves, actual attendance is not required, merely the announcement of plans to attend.", "post_id": 38332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749144623.909856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749144623.909856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5866666666666667, 0.41333333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.46862368431824064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.304297230269704, 0.44279550561171177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005934237977878183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12142500659544961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04249273752041031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.557204369372325, 0.49988553484328224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5010845370284676, 0.0, 0.7984877820207508, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 1.5501177582356358, 0.7541212514821088, 0.2674415470750466, 0.8942180920825968, 0.8171068097791382, 0.14412811747802612, 0.15589515649005067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3392637291458125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46969909024138257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.288599997810595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7119511623301776, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3915107710373727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20519356765151792, 0.04204359994762325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11714469491552423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -26.65144405517705, "peer_score": 5.484498847877142, "coverage": 0.9870882494582071, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870882494582071, "spot_peer_score": 4.158898154282151, "spot_baseline_score": -27.462238010900574, "baseline_archived_score": -26.65144405517705, "peer_archived_score": 5.484498847877142, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.158898154282151, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -27.462238010900574 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Lula invites Mexico, Colombia, and Uruguay to BRICS Summit](https://en.mercopress.com/2025/03/04/lula-invites-mexico-colombia-and-uruguay-to-brics-summit#google_vignette) | [Uruguay’s participation at the BRICS summit still up in the air](https://www.plenglish.com/news/2025/03/02/uruguays-participation-at-the-brics-summit-still-up-in-the-air/)" }, { "id": 38331, "title": "At the end of June 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to X (formerly Twitter)?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-end-of-june-2025-will-wikipedia-still-list-all-these-countries-as-currently-blocking-access-to-x-formerly-twitter", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.586557Z", "published_at": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.653362Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T21:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37607, "title": "At the end of June 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to X (formerly Twitter)?", "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.586557Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T21:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T21:24:20.005137Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to July 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 38331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749136860.205633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749136860.205633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8734698567099651 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0991598257291094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13317800265805058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.14443339828080168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6670118133980978, 0.7527531912644363, 0.7282180562393341, 0.10687792566038573, 1.6701403139738773, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1645139018439323, 0.0, 0.7387293939362193, 0.0, 0.0, 1.413852562666779, 0.7001862823662643, 1.6845548321200243, 0.3429179627815088, 0.17672342147353706, 2.764982897387201, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0919202996362008, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.49246599597366, "peer_score": 2.331853575683555, "coverage": 0.9873792715205086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9873792715205086, "spot_peer_score": 2.3492656925533906, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 78.49246599597366, "peer_archived_score": 2.331853575683555, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3492656925533906, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 38330, "title": "Will the New York Times mention \"reverse purchasing\" before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-york-times-mention-reverse-purchasing-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.581241Z", "published_at": "2025-06-05T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.688061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T21:27:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37606, "title": "Will the New York Times mention \"reverse purchasing\" before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-31T04:11:49.581241Z", "open_time": "2025-06-05T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T21:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T23:17:25.103882Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "People's Daily: [“Reverse purchasing” reflects the vitality of the Chinese market](http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0430/c1004-40471159.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the NY Times mentions \"reverse purchasing\" in any of its content items as found through [this search](https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&lang=en&query=%22reverse%20purchasing%22&sort=best), dated after June 9, 2025 and before July 1, 2025. This question will also count \"reverse purchase,\" which can be found through [this link](https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&lang=en&query=%22reverse%20purchase%22&sort=best).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749130293.48675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749130293.48675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13644621731395268 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.21943807023132875, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3455057246259332, 0.2666269699899583, 1.3263616051591625, 0.5633522238557361, 4.415857670362865, 0.4396325135063167, 0.11908317602622799, 0.7387193487161362, 0.0, 5.879107362649162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3577491788064996, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T16:09:09.127731Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T12:12:04.662790Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37484, "title": "Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-30T14:51:31.310673Z", "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-04T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n\nThis question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.", "fine_print": "* The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n* A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n* The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n* If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n* This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.", "post_id": 38209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757555044.036128, "end_time": 1757738723.639, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757555044.036128, "end_time": 1757738723.639, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6269211440700999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.027260261306647233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.2665441514110732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8093233464695393, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.5142368439049506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8384708239380203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036486146261818564, 0.1874727013882846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1395858176846139, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 0.0, 1.715551926427667, 0.0, 0.619844361430768, 0.798830173608047, 0.0, 0.47803860799528397, 0.11089172218023127, 0.45806164545773537, 0.0, 0.007745309224094398, 0.08844637990446566, 0.9178384785025164, 0.758305640826302, 0.7489645850767321, 0.6582621892464446, 2.0566351467288646, 0.13250246398076315, 0.22455154556768386, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.12788508642805987, 0.5827089072721569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.08049479647214909, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08734309772970561, 0.05739703566227289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407343321365842 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval." }, { "id": 38195, "title": "Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-announce-a-suspension-of-habeas-corpus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-29T14:52:42.860399Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T23:10:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T14:21:27.697888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-30T23:13:03Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2025, Stephen Miller, a senior advisor in the Trump administration, stated that the administration was “actively looking at” suspending the writ of habeas corpus to facilitate deportations, citing the constitutional provision allowing suspension [<u>“in time of invasion”</u>](https://time.com/7284743/what-is-habeas-corpus-under-threat-suspension-trump-administration/). This consideration arises amidst the administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite the deportation of individuals, particularly targeting members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The use of this wartime law has led to legal challenges and scrutiny over due process rights. The Supreme Court blocked the administration's attempt to use the AEA for deportation, emphasizing the need for adequate notice and [<u>the opportunity to challenge such actions under habeas corpus rights.</u>](https://time.com/7286140/supreme-court-immigration-aliens-act/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the executive branch announces it is suspending the writ of habeas corpus in any part of the United States.\n\nResolution will be based on an official proclamation, executive order, Department of Justice memorandum, or other formal government action explicitly suspending the writ of habeas corpus that is intended to have the force of law according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The writ of habeas corpus refers to the constitutional right of individuals to challenge the legality of their detention before a court.\n* Failures to grant habeas corpus to specific individuals or opposition to legal actions invoking habeas corpus in specific court cases will not suffice. There must be a general and formal suspension of the right.\n* Suspension of habeas corpus is not necessarily universal — for example, it may apply only to a specific group (e.g., non-citizens), a particular region (e.g., border areas), or under defined conditions (e.g., national security emergencies). Any such announced suspension would still result in a **Yes** resolution.\n* This question resolves based on an executive branch announcement of a suspension of habeas corpus that is intended to have the force of law. 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This consideration arises amidst the administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to expedite the deportation of individuals, particularly targeting members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The use of this wartime law has led to legal challenges and scrutiny over due process rights. The Supreme Court blocked the administration's attempt to use the AEA for deportation, emphasizing the need for adequate notice and [<u>the opportunity to challenge such actions under habeas corpus rights.</u>](https://time.com/7286140/supreme-court-immigration-aliens-act/)" } ] }
