Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4040
{ "count": 6388, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4020", "results": [ { "id": 12567, "title": "Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Rubik's Cube World Record Broken", "url_title": "Rubik's Cube World Record Broken", "slug": "rubiks-cube-world-record-broken", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-21T20:20:16.089587Z", "published_at": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.212621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12567, "title": "Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-21T20:20:16.089587Z", "open_time": "2022-09-24T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-26T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) world record in the history of modern Speedcubing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a 3x3x3 Rubik's Cube single solve taking less than 3.47 seconds is verified by the [World Cube Association](https://www.worldcubeassociation.org/results/rankings/333/single) by July 1, 2023. If this does not occur, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the 3.47 second time by Yusheng Du is removed from the WCA's rankings for any reason (e.g. being declared fraudulent), the question's resolution criteria are unaffected. In other words, the question can still resolve positively if a faster time than 3.47 seconds is verified before the deadline.", "post_id": 12567, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686795296.109518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686795296.109518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.2444206187820262 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8064508031596349, 2.47537928534833, 0.1539321045549336, 1.2101071592130188, 0.09551526241989404, 1.1594145253069117, 0.33171761475866546, 0.5808565214478367, 1.125671899097355, 0.2833222929822858, 0.827060276640659, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.5271525541054037, 0.0, 0.010888565211072518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6967655961316941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002647192416789941, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9375624639231254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8693274511090578 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -20.20198950044395, "coverage": 0.9409773083310092, "baseline_score": -194.9324516108054, "spot_peer_score": -5.832532233418034, "peer_archived_score": -20.20198950044395, "baseline_archived_score": -194.9324516108054, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.832532233418034 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686469464.492067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686469464.492067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9963009627717151, 0.003699037228284913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 187, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 25, 2018, the [Rubik's Cube world record](https://ruwix.com/blog/yusheng-du-record-347/) was set at 3.47 seconds by Yusheng Du, beating the previous record of 4.22 by 0.75 seconds. Since then, no additional world records have been set, making this the [longest-standing](https://ruwix.com/the-rubiks-cube/history-of-the-world-record-evolution/) world record in the history of modern Speedcubing." }, { "id": 12539, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "url_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "slug": "pierre-poilievre-pm-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-11T00:43:10.344534Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T19:02:27.379817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 145, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12539, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-09-11T00:43:10.344534Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-19T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 12539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763578936.810679, "end_time": 1765416651.28, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763578936.810679, "end_time": 1765416651.28, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.002434449122372759 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.273359112324417, 0.4438855848352983, 0.19165477554951155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287255.850141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287255.850141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12547259130052235, 0.8745274086994776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 936, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)" }, { "id": 12532, "title": "Will Russia order a general mobilization by January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia General Mobilization Before 2023", "url_title": "Russia General Mobilization Before 2023", "slug": "russia-general-mobilization-before-2023", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-10T15:29:09.677216Z", "published_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.158207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12532, "title": "Will Russia order a general mobilization by January 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-10T15:29:09.677216Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-17T16:27:47.730413Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-17T16:27:47.730413Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-24T17:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The conflict in Ukraine continues, and Russia has yet to achieve its goals. NATO countries and their allies continue to pour tens of billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine in an effort to strengthen the country's armed forces. So far, Russia has [avoided](https://ukranews.com/en/news/868494-putin-will-not-declare-war-on-ukraine-or-mobilization-in-russia-yet-defense-intelligence) launching a general mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine, which would [enable](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization) it to legally send conscripts to the conflict. Russia may feel it is necessary at some point to order a general mobilization, in order to launch new offensives against Ukraine, gain additional concessions from the country, and minimize its long-term losses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following criteria are met prior to January 1, 2023:\n\n- A formal declaration of war is made by Russia as prescribed by its [constitution](http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm), requiring a majority vote in the State Duma, Federation Council, and signature by the President of the Russian Federation. \n\n- A law or decree is passed by the government of Russia ordering the activation of reserve military forces and authorizing the use of these forces, as well as conscripts, in Ukraine or combat elsewhere outside of Russian territory", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12532, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664040606.893324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.6331783032458201 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664040606.893324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.6331783032458201 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36682169675417986, 0.6331783032458201 ], "means": [ 0.6220493528670797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0004064828653765985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2063823512355594, 8.645122971532241e-05, 0.00016347659794659064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.974389664919013e-05, 0.0, 6.3854959528354555e-06, 0.0, 0.0014182136966325962, 3.310818299471204e-05, 0.0009476916267970275, 0.1663307952176055, 0.06623603486304802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7680418747033132, 2.7208213753059447e-05, 0.0, 0.005409748471493054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3613214490250738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042419004911629243, 0.0, 0.029726898298838227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.753015333693275, 0.0, 0.5497148452685245, 0.001311051127009946, 0.010723350520276304, 0.04448409386160258, 0.032627574782370064, 1.097299496951033, 0.8299578158879158, 0.21959765354056038, 0.0, 0.0, 4.14906355585848, 0.36669653477124187, 0.0, 1.2155356897726222, 0.8100322084948965, 0.13263369881222628, 0.6444223114086118, 0.6226688617645766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7245276884635051, 0.0010294620790442207, 0.17305684922280057, 0.3392422198921987, 0.3170838037123437, 2.603297187800887, 0.0, 0.1503584214809092, 0.0884049209561614, 0.0, 2.4015828675965443, 0.4263249389996148, 0.6915988091842977, 0.015199131218765148, 0.0, 0.11239720373834462, 0.09716588717728339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02125745083215884, 0.4217797693424995, 0.003650058192127535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01800313288945655, 0.046794647128137364, 0.43346560032570913, 0.001924137498613383, 0.0025760929281051508, 0.24867385084792787 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1664040606.936767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1664040606.936767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4147476058209786, 0.5852523941790214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 412, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The conflict in Ukraine continues, and Russia has yet to achieve its goals. NATO countries and their allies continue to pour tens of billions of dollars of military aid into Ukraine in an effort to strengthen the country's armed forces. So far, Russia has [avoided](https://ukranews.com/en/news/868494-putin-will-not-declare-war-on-ukraine-or-mobilization-in-russia-yet-defense-intelligence) launching a general mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine, which would [enable](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization) it to legally send conscripts to the conflict. Russia may feel it is necessary at some point to order a general mobilization, in order to launch new offensives against Ukraine, gain additional concessions from the country, and minimize its long-term losses." }, { "id": 12529, "title": "Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?", "short_title": "Charles III Abdication before Sep 9, 2032", "url_title": "Charles III Abdication before Sep 9, 2032", "slug": "charles-iii-abdication-before-sep-9-2032", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-10T02:15:13.207251Z", "published_at": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:53:11.732808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12529, "title": "Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?", "created_at": "2022-09-10T02:15:13.207251Z", "open_time": "2022-09-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-09-08T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Charles III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III), born November 14, 1948, is King of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms. He acceded to the throne on September 8, 2022 upon the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who was the longest-reigning British monarch in history, reigning for more than 70 years. At 73 years of age, Charles is the oldest person ever to assume the British throne.\n\nIn his first televised address following his accession to the throne, Charles III [said](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-speech-queen-elizabeth-death-b2163521.html):\n\n>\"Queen Elizabeth’s was a life well lived; a promise with destiny kept and she is mourned most deeply in her passing. That promise of lifelong service I renew to you all today.”\n\nHowever, [some say](https://www.who.com.au/will-prince-charles-make-prince-william-king) the King should abdicate in favour of his eldest son and heir apparent, [William, Prince of Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Wales):\n\n>... some royal fans have called for Charles to abdicate in favour of making his eldest son William the king.\n\n>Not only is William younger and more popular, his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is also considered by some to be a more favourable choice for Queen Consort than Camilla.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Charles III abdicates and ceases to be the monarch of the United Kingdom, before September 9, 2032. The question will resolve as **No** if Charles III is still reigning on September 9 2032, or if he ceases to be the United Kingdom's monarch for any reason other than abdication (e.g. death, dissolution of the monarchy, dissolution of the United Kingdom, etc.) prior to that date.\n\nNote that while Charles III is also the reigning monarch in [a number of other states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm), territories and various crown dependencies, his position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12529, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763407056.111832, "end_time": 1763742562.895088, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763407056.111832, "end_time": 1763742562.895088, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10781461349586059 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7126725378125361, 0.4573391763706963, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 3.0665220745858073, 0.5726051913800345, 0.09924199395337108, 1.7396417846986982, 0.0, 0.9383961458432528, 0.0, 0.7059114455984585, 0.004662905996750363, 0.6748247880263001, 0.27114422392158133, 0.010606778452136844, 0.49680014682221674, 0.15994448578790318, 0.0, 0.6806959093646853, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9904487685397624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288980.374107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288980.374107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9456025217245383, 0.05439747827546166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Charles III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III), born November 14, 1948, is King of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms. He acceded to the throne on September 8, 2022 upon the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who was the longest-reigning British monarch in history, reigning for more than 70 years. At 73 years of age, Charles is the oldest person ever to assume the British throne.\n\nIn his first televised address following his accession to the throne, Charles III [said](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-speech-queen-elizabeth-death-b2163521.html):\n\n>\"Queen Elizabeth’s was a life well lived; a promise with destiny kept and she is mourned most deeply in her passing. That promise of lifelong service I renew to you all today.”\n\nHowever, [some say](https://www.who.com.au/will-prince-charles-make-prince-william-king) the King should abdicate in favour of his eldest son and heir apparent, [William, Prince of Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Wales):\n\n>... some royal fans have called for Charles to abdicate in favour of making his eldest son William the king.\n\n>Not only is William younger and more popular, his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is also considered by some to be a more favourable choice for Queen Consort than Camilla." }, { "id": 12524, "title": "Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?", "short_title": "Apple to adopt RCS before 2026", "url_title": "Apple to adopt RCS before 2026", "slug": "apple-to-adopt-rcs-before-2026", "author_id": 117461, "author_username": "tylerjohnston", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-08T23:01:58.310000Z", "published_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.283998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12524, "title": "Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-09-08T23:01:58.310000Z", "open_time": "2022-09-16T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-18T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-08T20:44:00.098538Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.\n\nThere has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)\n\nAdopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner.", "resolution_criteria": "If by December 31, 2025, Apple has added RCS technology for text messaging to at least one model of mass-market consumer mobile phones available for purchase, this question will resolve as **Yes**. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736915199.772727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736915199.772727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9551309804585932 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09213947910089224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.23599519647101777, 0.746217120129998, 0.49929319350099344, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 7.357008126938046 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.3518691721736, "peer_score": 8.78935873883172, "coverage": 0.6075355722695944, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998656258349959, "spot_peer_score": 7.221804861860062, "spot_baseline_score": -128.6304185156641, "baseline_archived_score": -18.3518691721736, "peer_archived_score": 8.78935873883172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.221804861860062, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -128.6304185156641 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289498.881482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289498.881482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.048192868147542534, 0.9518071318524575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.\n\nThere has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)\n\nAdopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner." }, { "id": 12513, "title": "Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?", "short_title": "China Conducts Nuclear Weapon Test", "url_title": "China Conducts Nuclear Weapon Test", "slug": "china-conducts-nuclear-weapon-test", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-07T13:17:12.282158Z", "published_at": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.842411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T17:13:47.240114Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T17:13:47.240114Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12513, "title": "Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-09-07T13:17:12.282158Z", "open_time": "2022-09-09T17:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-11T17:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-11T17:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-19T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Arms Control Association's [Nuclear Testing Tally](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally), there have been 2,056 nuclear weapons tests around the globe (as of September 6, 2022). This tally includes nuclear weapons testing for military purposes as well as [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), which Wikipedia describes as\n\n>. . . nuclear explosions conducted for non-military purposes. Proposed uses include excavation for the building of canals and harbors, electrical generation, the use of nuclear explosions to drive spacecraft, and as a form of wide-area fracking.\n\nThe last known nuclear weapons test was [conducted by North Korea in September of 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test). However, the US has [voiced concerns](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-nuclear/china-may-have-conducted-low-level-nuclear-test-blasts-us-says-idUSKCN21X386) that China may have conducted nuclear weapons testing recently at their [Lop Nur Nuclear Test Base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lop_Nur#Nuclear_weapons_test_base). In particular, a report by the [US Department of State from June of 2020](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-Adherence-to-and-Compliance-with-Arms-Control-Nonproliferation-and-Disarmament-Agreements-and-Commitments-Compliance-Report.pdf) says the following (see page 49):\n\n>China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur, and lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities – which has included frequently blocking the flow of data from its International Monitoring System (IMS) stations to the International Data Center operated by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization – raise concerns regarding its adherence to the “zero yield” standard adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria.\n\nChina's last known test was on [July 29, 1996 at Lop Nur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_China). On September 24, 1996 China signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty), but has not ratified it.\n\n[Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/about/Daryl_Kimball) explained the methodology behind the Arms Control Association's Nuclear Testing Tally in an email as follows:\n\n>. . . our [[Nuclear Testing Tally fact sheet](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally)] takes into account all documented and acknowledged nuclear weapon test explosions and is based on detailed reports published by the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA, the CTBTO, the Russian atomic energy ministry, and public reports on nuclear test explosions conducted by other countries, which is why we list eight countries that have conducted nuclear test explosions since 1945. In keeping with contemporary interpretations of international law (the NPT and the CTBT), we do not distiguish between so-called peaceful nuclear explosions and nuclear weapon test explosions. Some tallies of nuclear testing vary on the margins, which is often due to whether one counts the number of “nuclear testing” events or “nuclear detonations” (some nuclear test events involved multiple nuclear detonations).\n>\n>We do pay very close attention to allegations of concealed nuclear weapons testing (concerning Russia and China in particular) and there is of course the debate about whether Israel perhaps, in coordination with South Africa, conducted a nuclear weapon test detonation in 1979 in the outer atmosphere above the South Atlantic. But this simple fact sheet does list or try to describe the debates about some of the allegations about nuclear testing (for instance by Israel or by Russia since it signed and ratified the CTBT).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if China performs a nuclear weapons test at any time between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, according to information provided by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally) as of January 1, 2030. If the Arms Control Association does not indicate that testing occurred in the relevant period, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIn the event the Arms Control Association no longer provides relevant updates, alternate sources will be used at the discretion of the Metaculus Admins. Admins may rely on official statements from China, or public statements from UN Security Council members asserting that testing has occurred, or other substantial sources of evidence. Metaculus Admins will consider non-lethal \"demonstrations\" to count as tests, while lethal attacks would not be considered tests. Additionally, tests need not be successful to qualify. If the Arms Control Association deviates from this classification the question will be resolved in accordance with the interpretation of Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663556307.671144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663556307.671144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.08749658865685704 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33913815775906453, 0.33423662601949417, 0.560245764355437, 0.22188647333713657, 1.887705592064394, 0.8727500189273638, 0.13404139897044384, 1.4012260631462152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2727745066065411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663556307.688811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663556307.688811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.978536517987637, 0.02146348201236299 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Arms Control Association's [Nuclear Testing Tally](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally), there have been 2,056 nuclear weapons tests around the globe (as of September 6, 2022). This tally includes nuclear weapons testing for military purposes as well as [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), which Wikipedia describes as\n\n>. . . nuclear explosions conducted for non-military purposes. Proposed uses include excavation for the building of canals and harbors, electrical generation, the use of nuclear explosions to drive spacecraft, and as a form of wide-area fracking.\n\nThe last known nuclear weapons test was [conducted by North Korea in September of 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test). However, the US has [voiced concerns](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-nuclear/china-may-have-conducted-low-level-nuclear-test-blasts-us-says-idUSKCN21X386) that China may have conducted nuclear weapons testing recently at their [Lop Nur Nuclear Test Base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lop_Nur#Nuclear_weapons_test_base). In particular, a report by the [US Department of State from June of 2020](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-Adherence-to-and-Compliance-with-Arms-Control-Nonproliferation-and-Disarmament-Agreements-and-Commitments-Compliance-Report.pdf) says the following (see page 49):\n\n>China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur, and lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities – which has included frequently blocking the flow of data from its International Monitoring System (IMS) stations to the International Data Center operated by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization – raise concerns regarding its adherence to the “zero yield” standard adhered to by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in their respective nuclear weapons testing moratoria.\n\nChina's last known test was on [July 29, 1996 at Lop Nur](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_China). On September 24, 1996 China signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty), but has not ratified it.\n\n[Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/about/Daryl_Kimball) explained the methodology behind the Arms Control Association's Nuclear Testing Tally in an email as follows:\n\n>. . . our [[Nuclear Testing Tally fact sheet](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally)] takes into account all documented and acknowledged nuclear weapon test explosions and is based on detailed reports published by the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA, the CTBTO, the Russian atomic energy ministry, and public reports on nuclear test explosions conducted by other countries, which is why we list eight countries that have conducted nuclear test explosions since 1945. In keeping with contemporary interpretations of international law (the NPT and the CTBT), we do not distiguish between so-called peaceful nuclear explosions and nuclear weapon test explosions. Some tallies of nuclear testing vary on the margins, which is often due to whether one counts the number of “nuclear testing” events or “nuclear detonations” (some nuclear test events involved multiple nuclear detonations).\n>\n>We do pay very close attention to allegations of concealed nuclear weapons testing (concerning Russia and China in particular) and there is of course the debate about whether Israel perhaps, in coordination with South Africa, conducted a nuclear weapon test detonation in 1979 in the outer atmosphere above the South Atlantic. But this simple fact sheet does list or try to describe the debates about some of the allegations about nuclear testing (for instance by Israel or by Russia since it signed and ratified the CTBT)." }, { "id": 12468, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?", "short_title": "Saudi-Iran normalization by 2024", "url_title": "Saudi-Iran normalization by 2024", "slug": "saudi-iran-normalization-by-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-07T04:26:52.496857Z", "published_at": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.920234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12468, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-09-07T04:26:52.496857Z", "open_time": "2022-09-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T13:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric. The two countries are engaged in a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict). In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five rounds of talks in Baghdad. In July 2022, the Iranian foreign ministry [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-tehran-riyadh-are-interested-holding-further-meetings-2022-07-13/) both sides are interested in more talks, but in August the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iran-talks-resume-when-conditions-right-iraq-says-iranian-envoy-2022-08-24/) that talks will resume when time is right. In August 2022, the UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, [said](https://archive.ph/2ZJ7c) that its ambassador will resume duties, which had been suspended since 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before January 1, 2024, as reported by [credible media sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Else, it will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678586482.337925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678586482.337925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7334531806483582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.0, 0.3127981976358077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19430251014152827, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38969645843682565, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.45875031368367064, 0.34566852835815665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 2.219427316007538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5114529326567943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.142068102354228 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.9249624585980145, "coverage": 0.3684241893206987, "baseline_score": -44.98030946353708, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 4.9249624585980145, "baseline_archived_score": -44.98030946353708, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678348047.879114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678348047.879114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8518300114453545, 0.14816998855464553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have had [no relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_relations) [since the start of 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_attack_on_the_Saudi_diplomatic_missions_in_Iran), when the Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked following the Saudi execution of a prominent Shia cleric. The two countries are engaged in a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict). In 2021, Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five rounds of talks in Baghdad. In July 2022, the Iranian foreign ministry [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-tehran-riyadh-are-interested-holding-further-meetings-2022-07-13/) both sides are interested in more talks, but in August the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait [said](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-iran-talks-resume-when-conditions-right-iraq-says-iranian-envoy-2022-08-24/) that talks will resume when time is right. In August 2022, the UAE, a close ally of Saudi Arabia, [said](https://archive.ph/2ZJ7c) that its ambassador will resume duties, which had been suspended since 2016." }, { "id": 12461, "title": "Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "short_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Commons", "url_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Commons", "slug": "proportionally-elected-uk-house-of-commons", "author_id": 105003, "author_username": "CheChe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-05T14:13:32.489287Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T21:45:42.449377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12461, "title": "Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-09-05T14:13:32.489287Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T19:56:51.039955Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T19:56:51.039955Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Since 1950](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Members_and_elections), general elections for the House of Commons in the United Kingdom have been on a [first-past-the-post (FPTP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) basis with a single victor. This election method stipulates that in each constituency the candidate with the most votes becomes that constituency's Member of Parliament.\n\nAlthough the UK general elections use FPTP in single-member constituencies, various [other voting systems](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/voting-systems/) are used or have been used for elections within the UK. Scotland uses the [semi-proportional additional member system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system#Scotland) (AMS) for the Scottish parliament, and Northern Ireland [uses the proportional single transferable vote (STV) system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly) for the Northern Ireland Assembly.\n\nReforms to the general election voting system have been proposed in the past, notably culminating in an unsuccessful [2011 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) on whether an alternative vote (AV) method should be used instead. Proposals for reform have focused on both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_non-transferable_vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if before 2030 a UK general election takes place in which at least 15% of seats in the House of Commons are decided based on some kind of proportional representation. Proportional representation includes but is not limited to party list PR, additional member, mixed-member PR, parallel voting, and single transferable vote. Alternative vote is not included.\n\nSome proportional and semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, mixed-member PR, and parallel voting elect some seats using a non-proportional system (e.g. FPTP in single member constituencies) and others using a proportional system (e.g. party list PR). For the purposes of this question, only the seats elected using proportional representation method count toward the 15% threshold.\n\nIf the UK breaks up before 2030 then the question will relate to the political entity that is continuous with the current UK House of Commons. If no such entity exists the question resolves **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763594961.630844, "end_time": 1764036725.293649, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.017 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763594961.630844, "end_time": 1764036725.293649, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.017 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06260018013373636 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1091691006273405, 2.468580007717315, 2.024966607641935, 2.174288449102253, 0.8062498901106632, 0.5405568934570593, 0.9748652021622302, 0.0866690853117432, 0.4111953249574266, 0.015241095655114558, 0.178281035622375, 0.06327492015001017, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17652900265006702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34456062722226327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288573.382739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288573.382739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9938677116988486, 0.006132288301151414 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 183, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Since 1950](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Members_and_elections), general elections for the House of Commons in the United Kingdom have been on a [first-past-the-post (FPTP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) basis with a single victor. This election method stipulates that in each constituency the candidate with the most votes becomes that constituency's Member of Parliament.\n\nAlthough the UK general elections use FPTP in single-member constituencies, various [other voting systems](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/voting-systems/) are used or have been used for elections within the UK. Scotland uses the [semi-proportional additional member system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system#Scotland) (AMS) for the Scottish parliament, and Northern Ireland [uses the proportional single transferable vote (STV) system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly) for the Northern Ireland Assembly.\n\nReforms to the general election voting system have been proposed in the past, notably culminating in an unsuccessful [2011 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) on whether an alternative vote (AV) method should be used instead. Proposals for reform have focused on both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_non-transferable_vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result." }, { "id": 12460, "title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "short_title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "url_title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "slug": "will-brendan-fraser-win-an-oscar-in-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-05T06:00:53.597381Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.098091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12460, "title": "Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?", "created_at": "2022-09-05T06:00:53.597381Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-13T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-11T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Brendan James Fraser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Fraser), born December 3, 1968, is an American-Canadian actor. He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films. \n\nFollowing a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's prominence declined markedly in the 2000s and 2010s, leading to stories such as GQ's 2018 article [What Ever Happened To Brendan Fraser?](https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser) However, in the late 2010s, [popular interest in Fraser and hopes for a career revival began to increase](https://www.insider.com/brendan-fraser-tiktok-brenaissance-viral-reason-2021-11), in a trend commonly referred to as \"the Brenaissance.\"\n\nIn January 2021, Fraser was announced as the lead in Darren Aronofsky's upcoming film [The Whale.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Whale_(2022_film)) The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September 2022. Fraser's performance was highly praised and [the film received a six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/) at the festival. Following this performance, film critic Nicholas Barber wrote \"[Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20220904-the-whale-review-brendan-fraser-deserves-an-oscar).\"\n\n>Fraser richly deserves to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, and if that doesn't happen, I won't just eat my hat, I'll eat as many pizzas and cheese-and-meatball sandwiches as Charlie gets through in the film. The Brenaissance is here.\n\nKyle Buchanan of The New York Times [wrote](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/movies/brendan-fraser-the-whale-venice-film-festival.html):\n\n>In Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” the onetime leading hunk is earning Oscar chatter for his role as a 600-pound recluse, though the emotional actor is wary.\n\nThe Whale is [scheduled](https://collider.com/the-whale-cast-plot-release-date-everything-we-know-so-far/) for theatrical release in the United States on December 9 2022. \n\n[The 95th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards) ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honour films released in 2022, and is scheduled to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on March 12, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at the 95th Academy Awards Brendan Fraser is awarded any Academy Award. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678475360.17286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678475360.17286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5413885302166972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009191953144017941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013281093624465255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019039896309310557, 0.0, 0.06079863355189714, 0.004715380590217308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.019395540998817004, 0.02439891007171052, 0.0, 0.10611211557396116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1040507375557041, 0.9425868971934067, 0.0, 0.17115711710022513, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5512601910558173, 0.13253099069011334, 0.22828764612479718, 0.6039843306575171, 0.008904031237728248, 0.9421319448367552, 0.0, 1.3063709241636001, 2.2773536919420936, 0.30563833986898786, 0.8308111453462594, 1.939304054792973, 0.23457770864020255, 0.0, 0.03372481884086813, 0.8362926797756443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.03035066010230634, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2645571001306608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14403702161694465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16826274979803604, 0.015216836922897737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.18184291418632875 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.192832048132484, "coverage": 0.9990335597076405, "baseline_score": -83.063899273121, "spot_peer_score": 2.7473766521303147, "peer_archived_score": 20.192832048132484, "baseline_archived_score": -83.063899273121, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7473766521303147 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678475360.19297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678475360.19297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5776928577252636, 0.4223071422747365 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Brendan James Fraser](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_Fraser), born December 3, 1968, is an American-Canadian actor. He played Rick O'Connell in the Mummy trilogy (1999–2008), and has played leading roles in numerous comedy and fantasy films. \n\nFollowing a series of injuries and personal mishaps, Fraser's prominence declined markedly in the 2000s and 2010s, leading to stories such as GQ's 2018 article [What Ever Happened To Brendan Fraser?](https://www.gq.com/story/what-ever-happened-to-brendan-fraser) However, in the late 2010s, [popular interest in Fraser and hopes for a career revival began to increase](https://www.insider.com/brendan-fraser-tiktok-brenaissance-viral-reason-2021-11), in a trend commonly referred to as \"the Brenaissance.\"\n\nIn January 2021, Fraser was announced as the lead in Darren Aronofsky's upcoming film [The Whale.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Whale_(2022_film)) The film premiered at the Venice International Film Festival in September 2022. Fraser's performance was highly praised and [the film received a six-minute standing ovation](https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/) at the festival. Following this performance, film critic Nicholas Barber wrote \"[Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20220904-the-whale-review-brendan-fraser-deserves-an-oscar).\"\n\n>Fraser richly deserves to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, and if that doesn't happen, I won't just eat my hat, I'll eat as many pizzas and cheese-and-meatball sandwiches as Charlie gets through in the film. The Brenaissance is here.\n\nKyle Buchanan of The New York Times [wrote](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/movies/brendan-fraser-the-whale-venice-film-festival.html):\n\n>In Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale,” the onetime leading hunk is earning Oscar chatter for his role as a 600-pound recluse, though the emotional actor is wary.\n\nThe Whale is [scheduled](https://collider.com/the-whale-cast-plot-release-date-everything-we-know-so-far/) for theatrical release in the United States on December 9 2022. \n\n[The 95th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/95th_Academy_Awards) ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, will honour films released in 2022, and is scheduled to take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California on March 12, 2023." }, { "id": 12457, "title": "Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?", "short_title": "Homicide in Portland in 2023", "url_title": "Homicide in Portland in 2023", "slug": 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null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.\n\nAccording to an article featured in [the Oregonian Newspaper](https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2022/07/gang-violence-drives-surging-portland-homicide-rate-from-early-2019-to-mid-2021-study-finds.html), “Portland’s homicide rate jumped 207% from January 2019 through June 2021, the largest increase compared to five comparable cities, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver and Nashville, according to [a new study](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22088275-2022-pdx-problem-analysis-public-version-1)”\n\nThe referenced study was conducted by the California Partnership for Safe Communities in cooperation with the Portland Police Bureau. It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the [Portland Police Bureau](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are 100 or more homicide offenses from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 in Portland, Oregon, according to the [Portland Police Bureau website](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978). 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It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the [Portland Police Bureau](https://www.portlandoregon.gov/police/71978)." }, { "id": 12453, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?", "short_title": "UK Labour to have female leader before 2030?", "url_title": "UK Labour to have female leader before 2030?", "slug": "uk-labour-to-have-female-leader-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-09-04T13:34:00.644104Z", "published_at": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T10:23:06.090463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12453, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-09-04T13:34:00.644104Z", "open_time": "2022-09-07T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-09T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-09T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. \n\nThe Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.\n\nThe Conservatives first elected a female leader [in 1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Conservative_Party_leadership_election), Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in [September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)).\n\nThe Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, [Caroline Lucas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas), in 2008.\n\nPlaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in [2012.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Plaid_Cymru_leadership_election)\n\nThe Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon#First_Minister_of_Scotland), in 2014.\n\nThe UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, [Diane James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_James), in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election). \n\nThe Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election). \n\nAs of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to January 1 2030 the Labour Party has a female Leader. She must be the permanent Leader of the Labour Party, not an Acting Leader, a Deputy Leader temporarily acting in the capacity of a Leader, or any form of caretaker leader. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if this does not occur, including if the Labour Party ceases to exist prior to January 1 2030. If the Labour Party is renamed, this question shall continue to exist for the renamed party.\n\nIf the Labour Party splits into multiple parties, this question shall focus on whichever successor party has the greater number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that it splits. If the number is equal, this question shall concern *either* of the successor parties having an equal number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that the party splits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763374975.731061, "end_time": 1764261876.213206, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.312 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763374975.731061, "end_time": 1764261876.213206, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.312 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2739782163028747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6311757901227949, 0.0, 0.061241677883931034, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7382596033649083, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 1.177549044580589, 0.33328475738694685, 1.736088154404979, 0.15685721197324565, 0.3235495858073233, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.05676376119083015, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.795346328092568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.048216325707821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9792926923395475, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287778.886637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287778.886637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9398834535187632, 0.060116546481236814 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. \n\nThe Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.\n\nThe Conservatives first elected a female leader [in 1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Conservative_Party_leadership_election), Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in [September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)).\n\nThe Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, [Caroline Lucas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas), in 2008.\n\nPlaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in [2012.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Plaid_Cymru_leadership_election)\n\nThe Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon#First_Minister_of_Scotland), in 2014.\n\nThe UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, [Diane James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_James), in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election). \n\nThe Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election). \n\nAs of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis." }, { "id": 12348, "title": "Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?", "short_title": "3M Bankruptcy Before 2026", "url_title": "3M Bankruptcy Before 2026", "slug": "3m-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-28T05:32:28.681599Z", "published_at": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T20:56:47.681744Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12348, "title": "Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-28T05:32:28.681599Z", "open_time": "2022-09-02T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-04T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-04T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "3M Company, one of the 30 components making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ranked #102 on the Fortune 500, is a multinational corporation based in Minnesota with approximately 95,000 full-time equivalent employees. It manufactures a wide range of consumable industrial products used every day in offices, homes, hospitals, schools, factories and other workplaces. Well-known brands include Scotch-Brite abrasives and cleaning supplies, 3M respirators, Scotchgard Protector, Scotch tapes, Post-it notes, and Scotchlite films.\n\nIn 2021, 3M had operating income of $7.4 billion with net sales of $35.4 billion. It has increased stockholder dividends for 64 consecutive years. \n\n3M’s market cap peaked at $154 billion in January 2018, and today’s market cap of $74 billion is down over 50% from the peak.\n\nAlthough 3M is highly profitable and is widely diversified with over 60,000 products, it faces bankruptcy risk due to lawsuits related to Combat Arms brand earplugs supplied to the US military. In 2008, 3M acquired Aearo Technologies, which manufactured the earplugs. Although Aearo has been bankrupted by 3M, on August 26, 2022, a federal judge [ruled](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2022/08/26/indianapolis-company-loses-court-bid-to-halt-historic-3m-lawsuit/65459182007/) that 3M has successor liability and that mass tort claims by veterans will be allowed to proceed. \n\nThe company could face more than $100 billion in losses from these lawsuits, which could result in bankruptcy for the company, Bloomberg [reports](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-faces-100-billion-in-losses-from-veterans-earplug-suits-expert-says-1.1806435).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 66740 has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before January 1, 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762996063.957962, "end_time": 1767488074.681976, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762996063.957962, "end_time": 1767488074.681976, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017993770258579653 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7107945754915603, 3.251495554394997, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.35436393999175714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290036.106727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290036.106727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974586494144052, 0.0025413505855948156 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "3M Company, one of the 30 components making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ranked #102 on the Fortune 500, is a multinational corporation based in Minnesota with approximately 95,000 full-time equivalent employees. It manufactures a wide range of consumable industrial products used every day in offices, homes, hospitals, schools, factories and other workplaces. Well-known brands include Scotch-Brite abrasives and cleaning supplies, 3M respirators, Scotchgard Protector, Scotch tapes, Post-it notes, and Scotchlite films.\n\nIn 2021, 3M had operating income of $7.4 billion with net sales of $35.4 billion. It has increased stockholder dividends for 64 consecutive years. \n\n3M’s market cap peaked at $154 billion in January 2018, and today’s market cap of $74 billion is down over 50% from the peak.\n\nAlthough 3M is highly profitable and is widely diversified with over 60,000 products, it faces bankruptcy risk due to lawsuits related to Combat Arms brand earplugs supplied to the US military. In 2008, 3M acquired Aearo Technologies, which manufactured the earplugs. Although Aearo has been bankrupted by 3M, on August 26, 2022, a federal judge [ruled](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2022/08/26/indianapolis-company-loses-court-bid-to-halt-historic-3m-lawsuit/65459182007/) that 3M has successor liability and that mass tort claims by veterans will be allowed to proceed. \n\nThe company could face more than $100 billion in losses from these lawsuits, which could result in bankruptcy for the company, Bloomberg [reports](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-faces-100-billion-in-losses-from-veterans-earplug-suits-expert-says-1.1806435)." }, { "id": 12326, "title": "By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?", "short_title": "Student debt cancellation blocked by 2024?", "url_title": "Student debt cancellation blocked by 2024?", "slug": "student-debt-cancellation-blocked-by-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-25T01:19:48.931910Z", "published_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.684091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12326, "title": "By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?", "created_at": "2022-08-25T01:19:48.931910Z", "open_time": "2022-10-23T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-24T22:44:38.387933Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-24T22:44:38.387933Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. Per the plan, the DOE will:\n\n1. Cancel $10,000 for Americans with student loan balances who earn $125,000 or less and are single tax filers ($250,000 for those who are married filing jointly).\n\n2. Extend the COVID-era student debt payment moratorium until December 31, 2022.\n\n3. For borrowers who received a Pell Grant, forgive an additional $10,000 in debt.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if by December 31, 2023, the United States Supreme Court takes any action that would block any part of the Biden Administration's plan for broad-based student debt relief. It also resolves as **Yes** if by the same date, a lower court action blocking any part of the plan is declined or passed up for higher court review, such that reputable legal expert sources consulted by Metaculus admins agree the block is most likely to stand indefinitely or permanently.\n\nElse resolves as **No**. \n\nIn rare cases this question might resolve as **Ambiguous** per the *Metaculus FAQ:*\n\n> An ambiguous resolution generally implies that there was some inherent ambiguity in the question, that real-world events subverted one of the assumptions of the question, or that there is not a clear consensus as to what in fact occurred.\n\nGenerally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not the courts have taken any action to stop implementation of the Biden-Harris Student Debt Relief plan, based on credible media reporting. Examples of actions include but are not limited to blocking an appeal, declaring a part of a rule invalid, or remanding any case to a lower court where it gets invalidated. The Metaculus Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688139492.351362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688139492.351362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.7187193095976339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6778638466459552, 0.3589031494592382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556842674223446, 0.2758521521053194, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.9073280378162433, 0.03365636844874199, 0.7092252697620736, 0.8258340825116974, 0.8127929281994595, 0.0, 0.3225659157834225, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46167593653055977, 1.1713969419443901, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5429942209064903, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1274765214171607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5069087262127917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9292991145104746 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.108962245607596, "coverage": 0.5751251004530727, "baseline_score": 23.957916410617123, "spot_peer_score": 38.7055859878795, "peer_archived_score": 8.108962245607596, "baseline_archived_score": 23.957916410617123, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.7055859878795 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687939072.551581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687939072.551581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25642318377454687, 0.7435768162254531 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 24, 2022, President Joe Biden [announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-student-loan-relief-for-borrowers-who-need-it-most/) his plan for the Department of Education to grant broad-based relief of student loans. 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For borrowers who received a Pell Grant, forgive an additional $10,000 in debt." }, { "id": 12298, "title": "Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?", "short_title": "Australia 'No Religion' majority 2026 census", "url_title": "Australia 'No Religion' majority 2026 census", "slug": "australia-no-religion-majority-2026-census", "author_id": 130177, "author_username": "alsk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-21T07:25:34.640534Z", "published_at": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.440365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12298, "title": "Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?", "created_at": "2022-08-21T07:25:34.640534Z", "open_time": "2022-08-26T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-28T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/)\n\n***\n\nEvery 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census has a voluntary question \"What is the person's religion?\" with 'No Religion' being the first option.\n\nThe proportion of the population represented by 'No Religion' in the 2021 census was 38.9%, up from 30.1% in 2016.\n\nThe proportion of the population not responding to the question was 7.3% in 2021, down from 10% in 2016.\n\nThe next census will be conducted in 2026, most likely in early August.\nCensus data dating back to 1986 is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data), and an overview of the changes in reported religion in the 2021 census is available at the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia). If the schedule of census releases remains consistent, the 2026 census data will be released in 2027.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the 'No Religion' responses on the 2026 census represent at least 50% of the Australian population, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760793837.868067, "end_time": 1765368777.284278, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760793837.868067, "end_time": 1765368777.284278, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3952691231797261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9554154554519203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287438.269688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287438.269688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7084652689393331, 0.29153473106066685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/)\n\n***\n\nEvery 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census has a voluntary question \"What is the person's religion?\" with 'No Religion' being the first option.\n\nThe proportion of the population represented by 'No Religion' in the 2021 census was 38.9%, up from 30.1% in 2016.\n\nThe proportion of the population not responding to the question was 7.3% in 2021, down from 10% in 2016.\n\nThe next census will be conducted in 2026, most likely in early August.\nCensus data dating back to 1986 is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data), and an overview of the changes in reported religion in the 2021 census is available at the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia). If the schedule of census releases remains consistent, the 2026 census data will be released in 2027." }, { "id": 12286, "title": "Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?", "short_title": "2022 Kenyan Presidential Election Nullified", "url_title": "2022 Kenyan Presidential Election Nullified", "slug": "2022-kenyan-presidential-election-nullified", "author_id": 119712, "author_username": "rduubs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-19T09:27:33.065782Z", "published_at": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.358580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12286, "title": "Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?", "created_at": "2022-08-19T09:27:33.065782Z", "open_time": "2022-08-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-24T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-24T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T09:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/africa/kenya-election-william-ruto.html) and [Kenya's Nation](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-named-president-elect-3914858) have reported that William Ruto is the President-Elect of Kenya after winning the general election by just over 200,000 votes. \n\nThe results weren't without some controversy. Four commissioners from the [Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Electoral_and_Boundaries_Commission) (IEBC) [refused to back the result](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-commissioners-this-is-why-we-rejected-chebukati-tally-3917100) after saying final tallying was conducted in an opaque manner.\n\nKenyan elections allow any citizen group to [bring a challenge within seven days](https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/17/us-kenya-election-petition) of an election result. The Supreme Court would then have two weeks to rule on the challenge. A decision by the court to nullify the results would require a new vote to be held within 60 days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Supreme Court nullifies the results of the 2022 Kenyan Presidential Election. The question will resolve based on official communication from the Kenyan Supreme Court. The question will resolve as **No** if either there is no challenge, the Supreme Court does not rule on the election results, or the Court upholds the results", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662406697.993761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662406697.993761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1723045596453831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.162418115041623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13461295092244627, 0.38538527315093474, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.1536060961242238, 0.46070466258941734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.25015755709966947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.4504593390762506, "coverage": 0.9332174106220685, "baseline_score": 1.4280083086357949, "spot_peer_score": 8.098205953679656, "peer_archived_score": 1.4504593390762506, "baseline_archived_score": 1.4280083086357949, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.098205953679656 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662363482.393684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662363482.393684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6950367796353557, 0.3049632203646443 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/africa/kenya-election-william-ruto.html) and [Kenya's Nation](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/william-ruto-named-president-elect-3914858) have reported that William Ruto is the President-Elect of Kenya after winning the general election by just over 200,000 votes. \n\nThe results weren't without some controversy. Four commissioners from the [Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Electoral_and_Boundaries_Commission) (IEBC) [refused to back the result](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/iebc-commissioners-this-is-why-we-rejected-chebukati-tally-3917100) after saying final tallying was conducted in an opaque manner.\n\nKenyan elections allow any citizen group to [bring a challenge within seven days](https://www.euronews.com/2022/08/17/us-kenya-election-petition) of an election result. The Supreme Court would then have two weeks to rule on the challenge. 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This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.\n\nEnergy prices have been [forecasted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/uk-household-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-5-000-a-year) to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.\n\n[Martin Lewis](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/explore/tv_personality/Martin_Lewis?content=surveys), the second most popular TV personality has [claimed](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/08/price-cap-forecast-january-action-needed/) that the upcoming crisis \"will leave many destitute\".\n\nBritain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the [Poll Tax riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_riots), the [2011 England Riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots) and the [1995 Brixton Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Brixton_riot). However, the [anti-austerity protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-austerity_movement_in_the_United_Kingdom) and the [2010 student protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_student_protests) while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if three popular British [broadsheet newspapers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_the_United_Kingdom) report at least 100 people injured in cost of living crisis riots over the coming autumn or winter. The news reports should be dated between August 22, 2022 and March 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "The protests should be related to the cost of living crisis. For example, if England loses to the final in the World Cup because of a referee mistake and protests erupt, this will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 12275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677622549.643865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677622549.643865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.010659980042884609 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.333999658160636, 9.042236744950806, 0.608221615629782, 0.10694602411934867, 1.0324381507228462, 0.1593489121293057, 0.004069688563131239, 0.0015799182425890782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006250360685648172, 0.002016491869821532, 0.05424955452663764, 0.0, 0.0018679085446789811, 0.3008026111458043, 0.0003886128165668022, 0.0, 0.0007286220533113514, 0.002285946622782412, 0.0, 0.0004866488851050062, 0.000874589565119552, 0.03754777488831368, 0.0, 0.0049390033629866355, 0.0, 6.708700406036308e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01352931657365196, 0.0, 0.0006502110149726544, 0.00044807912297860667, 0.0006947274067674804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.89068470309675e-05, 0.00015972210213547274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007988841328926595, 0.0010437267407274785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.650999187104954e-05, 9.079238696005021e-06, 0.00016060913675222186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0015882758694172132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.467992956359265e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001721563801118083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.131576092319255, "coverage": 0.9999256175156223, "baseline_score": 77.47142779098058, "spot_peer_score": 19.77726297122622, "peer_archived_score": 14.131576092319255, "baseline_archived_score": 77.47142779098058, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.77726297122622 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677622549.673285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677622549.673285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 552, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [UK cost of living crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_cost_of_living_crisis) is a period starting in 2021 in which prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household income, resulting in a fall in real income. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in the UK. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. Her Majesty's Government has responded in various ways, such as by making provision for a £650 grant for each of the UK's lower income households.\n\nEnergy prices have been [forecasted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/uk-household-energy-bills-forecast-to-hit-5-000-a-year) to hit £5000 by the end of the year. The current Prime Minister has resigned, serving as a caretaker, while the Conservatives are in the process of electing a new leader.\n\n[Martin Lewis](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/entertainment/explore/tv_personality/Martin_Lewis?content=surveys), the second most popular TV personality has [claimed](https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/08/price-cap-forecast-january-action-needed/) that the upcoming crisis \"will leave many destitute\".\n\nBritain has had riots where more than 100 people have been injured like the [Poll Tax riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_tax_riots), the [2011 England Riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots) and the [1995 Brixton Riot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Brixton_riot). However, the [anti-austerity protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-austerity_movement_in_the_United_Kingdom) and the [2010 student protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_student_protests) while meaningful, did not lead to very many people getting injured." }, { "id": 12264, "title": "Will the Tasmanian Tiger be brought back from extinction before 2035?", "short_title": "Thylacine De-extinction before 2035", "url_title": "Thylacine De-extinction before 2035", "slug": "thylacine-de-extinction-before-2035", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-17T00:27:54.103317Z", "published_at": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:49:07.865188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12264, "title": "Will the Tasmanian Tiger be brought back from extinction before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-08-17T00:27:54.103317Z", "open_time": "2022-08-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-22T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Thylacine](https://australian.museum/learn/australia-over-time/extinct-animals/the-thylacine/), or ‘[Tasmanian Tiger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine)’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion, and remained only on the island of Tasmania. As a result of human bounty hunting and other forces, the last documented killing of a wild thylacine occurred in [1930](https://web.archive.org/web/20141220092350/http://www.naturalworlds.org/thylacine/history/persecution/persecution_10.htm), and the last captive example of the species died in Hobart Zoo in 1936. Searches and unconfirmed sightings have [continued](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine#Benjamin_and_searches), but the species is now generally believed to be extinct.\n\nA recently-announced partnership between the [University of Melbourne](https://tigrrlab.science.unimelb.edu.au) and the US Biotech firm [Colossal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences) aims to change this, using gene-editing, “marsupial-specific assisted reproductive technologies”, and a previously-sequenced genome taken from juvenile specimen held in a museum to ‘de-extinct’ the thylacine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/de-extinction-scientists-are-planning-the-multimillion-dollar-resurrection-of-the-tasmanian-tiger), [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545)).\n\nWhile some scientists have voiced [scepticism](https://twitter.com/JackDAshby/status/1559682341659783169), the leaders of the project are confident:\n\n> Pask [a professor and evolutionary biologist at the University of Melbourne, who runs the Thylacine Integrated Genetic Restoration Research — or TIGRR — Lab] said the gene-editing techniques and resources that Colossal could bring to the thylacine project would accelerate the rebuilding of the animal, which was first mooted as a possibility in the 1990s. \n> \n> “It is not a matter of if but when it can happen,” he said, predicting that live animals could be created within the decade.\n> \n> Ben Lamm, co-founder of Colossal, said a thylacine should be easier to recreate than a mammoth because of the higher quality of the genetic samples available and the ease with which an embryo — initially the size of a grain of rice — could be gestated in the lab using surrogate animals and artificial pouches. \n> \n> “It is highly possible the thylacine could be birthed before the mammoth,” he said. ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a fully reconstructed Tasmanian Tiger has been successfully created—and has lived to at least three months of age— at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports.", "fine_print": "For the resolution of this question, it is not necessary for any Tasmanian Tiger to live beyond 3 months of age or result in a stable breeding population.", "post_id": 12264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762973336.598477, "end_time": 1764480891.002556, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762973336.598477, "end_time": 1764480891.002556, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24220823769113925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 1.3137906999069564, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9635496617236372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1377014936730925, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.5999842817722217, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.45273296231906435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39810971753864133, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1237744268814007, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18894147621172708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8568057479130731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2259592508865413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287827.767686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287827.767686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9341194310192015, 0.06588056898079854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Thylacine](https://australian.museum/learn/australia-over-time/extinct-animals/the-thylacine/), or ‘[Tasmanian Tiger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine)’, was a carnivorous marsupial and apex predator. While the thylacine was once native to Australia and New Guinea, it had become locally extinct on both New Guinea and the Australian mainland before British invasion, and remained only on the island of Tasmania. As a result of human bounty hunting and other forces, the last documented killing of a wild thylacine occurred in [1930](https://web.archive.org/web/20141220092350/http://www.naturalworlds.org/thylacine/history/persecution/persecution_10.htm), and the last captive example of the species died in Hobart Zoo in 1936. Searches and unconfirmed sightings have [continued](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thylacine#Benjamin_and_searches), but the species is now generally believed to be extinct.\n\nA recently-announced partnership between the [University of Melbourne](https://tigrrlab.science.unimelb.edu.au) and the US Biotech firm [Colossal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences) aims to change this, using gene-editing, “marsupial-specific assisted reproductive technologies”, and a previously-sequenced genome taken from juvenile specimen held in a museum to ‘de-extinct’ the thylacine ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/16/de-extinction-scientists-are-planning-the-multimillion-dollar-resurrection-of-the-tasmanian-tiger), [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545)).\n\nWhile some scientists have voiced [scepticism](https://twitter.com/JackDAshby/status/1559682341659783169), the leaders of the project are confident:\n\n> Pask [a professor and evolutionary biologist at the University of Melbourne, who runs the Thylacine Integrated Genetic Restoration Research — or TIGRR — Lab] said the gene-editing techniques and resources that Colossal could bring to the thylacine project would accelerate the rebuilding of the animal, which was first mooted as a possibility in the 1990s. \n> \n> “It is not a matter of if but when it can happen,” he said, predicting that live animals could be created within the decade.\n> \n> Ben Lamm, co-founder of Colossal, said a thylacine should be easier to recreate than a mammoth because of the higher quality of the genetic samples available and the ease with which an embryo — initially the size of a grain of rice — could be gestated in the lab using surrogate animals and artificial pouches. \n> \n> “It is highly possible the thylacine could be birthed before the mammoth,” he said. ([FT](https://www.ft.com/content/60ef876f-5b83-43d5-bf32-ea102e542545))" }, { "id": 12257, "title": "Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Aus Referendum on Indigenous Voice By 2026", "url_title": "Aus Referendum on Indigenous Voice By 2026", "slug": "aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-16T10:09:37.487840Z", "published_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.364070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12257, "title": "Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-16T10:09:37.487840Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12255/aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a national referendum is held in Australia which concerns an amendment to the constitution to create an Indigenous \"Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026, as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission.", "fine_print": "The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.", "post_id": 12257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697397417.969555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697397417.969555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9859629880227107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03530758546313671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04031214257072945, 0.31850270789227886, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.2974800112984262, 0.0, 0.22374370858157588, 0.12098568606878847, 0.1446439265446183, 0.3403021919177779, 11.299636196541753 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5127760512156, "coverage": 0.3416734637621553, "baseline_score": 28.431618356014518, "spot_peer_score": 6.068608588398395, "peer_archived_score": 1.5127760512156, "baseline_archived_score": 28.431618356014518, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.068608588398395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697010474.763472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697010474.763472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011203044924007588, 0.9887969550759924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 160, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12255/aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia)." }, { "id": 12255, "title": "If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?", "short_title": "Aus Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice\"", "url_title": "Aus Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice\"", "slug": "aus-referendum-on-an-indigenous-voice", "author_id": 111805, "author_username": "galen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-16T09:52:08.048663Z", "published_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.509987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "open_time": 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null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12255, "title": "If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?", "created_at": "2022-08-16T09:52:08.048663Z", "open_time": "2022-08-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-16T14:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-11T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nThe initial [proposed question](https://www.niaa.gov.au/indigenous-affairs/referendum-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice) is:\n\n> \"Do you support an alteration to the constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?\"\n\nThe (proposed) sentences to be added to the Constitution are:\n\n> 1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n> 2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.\n> 3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n\nHowever, as reported by the [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/why-is-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-important/101287716),\n\n> These provisions are expected to be tweaked throughout the consultation process.\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Australian Electoral Commission reports that referendum concerning an Indigenous \"Voice to Parliament\" has received a majority of national votes, and also a majority of votes in a majority of Australian states. If no such national referendum is put to the Australian people before 2026, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will close retroactively 48 hours before the referendum voting day (excluding all ‘pre-polling’ days).", "fine_print": "The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.", "post_id": 12255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697447318.193579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697447318.193579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02437650454222668 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.52263403991691, 4.417239203292189, 0.7489327779117132, 0.19438496767249921, 0.12557831740690922, 2.3732651449929283, 0.06482859797375792, 0.025334624450131557, 0.0, 0.05190119490203952, 0.3889082148465018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1386378778278722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04811195816242564, 0.0, 0.11382581409493062, 0.0, 0.1335199776664642, 0.0, 0.041232074872413094, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0, 0.09249871784476868, 0.0, 0.002181895179420165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12143838391847508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035201554049220755, 0.005797461782235216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032659063855347377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005978849674628248, 0.007285263176892596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005046411140264085, 0.004217311577006316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021636365383337123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002252449224280325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009771619936199615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.23679811476837, "coverage": 0.9999852597898674, "baseline_score": -3.158212977379119, "spot_peer_score": -20.007812462430564, "peer_archived_score": 21.23679811476837, "baseline_archived_score": -3.158212977379119, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.007812462430564 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696750745.425259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696750745.425259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9829799991081482, 0.01702000089185181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/)\n* [If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12256/-yes-for-aus-indigenous-voice-to-parliament/)\n\n----\n\nOn July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-pm-unveils-draft-indigenous-recognition-referendum-question-2022-07-30/), [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-29/pm-anthony-albanese-promises-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-/101284404)).\n\nThe initial [proposed question](https://www.niaa.gov.au/indigenous-affairs/referendum-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-voice) is:\n\n> \"Do you support an alteration to the constitution that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice?\"\n\nThe (proposed) sentences to be added to the Constitution are:\n\n> 1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n> 2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to Parliament and the Executive Government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples.\n> 3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to the composition, functions, powers and procedures of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.\n\nHowever, as reported by the [ABC](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/why-is-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-important/101287716),\n\n> These provisions are expected to be tweaked throughout the consultation process.\n\nAs of August 2022, there have been [a total of 44 referendums](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia#List_of_referendums_and_plebiscites) in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in [1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum), and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was [proposed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_2013_Australian_constitutional_referendum) (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.\n\nA national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:\n\n1. A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and\n2. A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).\n\nAs with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found [here](https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/referendums/) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Australia)." }, { "id": 12245, "title": "Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?", "short_title": "SpinLaunch payload by 2032", "url_title": "SpinLaunch payload by 2032", "slug": "spinlaunch-payload-by-2032", "author_id": 114021, "author_username": "rendall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-14T18:47:03.106240Z", "published_at": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:07:47.841721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12245, "title": "Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?", "created_at": "2022-08-14T18:47:03.106240Z", "open_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-19T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-19T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-08-14T21:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpinLaunch](https://www.spinlaunch.com) is a technology company currently researching and developing a \"ground-based, electric powered kinetic launch system\" for the purpose of launching \"200 kilogram class satellites into low earth orbit\", potentially bringing the cost of launch to under $2,500 per kilogram.\n\nThe approach is to use a mass accelerator to spin a payload to Mach 6 before releasing it into the atmosphere. The payload will rise to 72 kilometers before a chemical rocket stage takes over, completing the lift to low Earth orbit.\n\nWhile [SpinLaunch has attracted $80 million in investment](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/spinlaunch/company_financials) from GV, Kleiner Perkins, among others, the engineering challenges are unprecedented. The mass accelerator must spin in vacuum to prevent catastrophic damage from air friction. The spinning tether must withstand 10,000 gravities of force across 45 feet. The payload must be release precisely. The launch tube must close nearly instantaneously to prevent loss of vacuum.\n\n[Some critics like Scott Manley](https://youtu.be/JAczd3mt3X0) and [Thunderf00t](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ziGI0i9VbE) are skeptical that this is possible at all, given physics and current material science. [Other critics, like Real Engineering](https://youtu.be/yrc632oilWo) are more sanguine.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** when SpinLaunch or its successor lifts a satellite of any weight to [low Earth orbit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit) using the described mass accelerator, according to credible media reports.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No** if the above does not occur by August 15th, 2032.", "fine_print": "The key question here is the viability of spinning mass accelerator technology for launching payloads, not the identity of the company that uses it. Resolution by the deadline should be positive only if the described mass accelerator technology was used in a successful launch, and negative only if the mass accelerator technology is abandoned.\n\nFor example, if SpinLaunch were to sell its technology to another entity which then successfully launched, this question would resolve as **Yes**. Likewise, if SpinLaunch abandoned its mass accelerator and successfully pivoted to conventional rocketry, this question would resolve as **No**.\n\nIn all cases, the question will resolve unambiguously **No** if no mass accelerator launches any satellite by the deadline.", "post_id": 12245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763463737.562644, "end_time": 1763947831.86797, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763463737.562644, "end_time": 1763947831.86797, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.12662918935657252 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.326801098322495, 1.37619268156126, 0.9908247026161531, 0.0, 1.5605166649514084, 0.2519740871949554, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3007399674159927, 0.38794463863899586, 0.0, 0.06505325903721454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584723582925599, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.500885989765139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.1241543284255877, 0.020687338528193835, 0.0, 0.09222549710312164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09013597911829731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17262475494939217, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289513.819109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289513.819109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9570164105125328, 0.04298358948746714 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpinLaunch](https://www.spinlaunch.com) is a technology company currently researching and developing a \"ground-based, electric powered kinetic launch system\" for the purpose of launching \"200 kilogram class satellites into low earth orbit\", potentially bringing the cost of launch to under $2,500 per kilogram.\n\nThe approach is to use a mass accelerator to spin a payload to Mach 6 before releasing it into the atmosphere. The payload will rise to 72 kilometers before a chemical rocket stage takes over, completing the lift to low Earth orbit.\n\nWhile [SpinLaunch has attracted $80 million in investment](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/spinlaunch/company_financials) from GV, Kleiner Perkins, among others, the engineering challenges are unprecedented. The mass accelerator must spin in vacuum to prevent catastrophic damage from air friction. The spinning tether must withstand 10,000 gravities of force across 45 feet. The payload must be release precisely. The launch tube must close nearly instantaneously to prevent loss of vacuum.\n\n[Some critics like Scott Manley](https://youtu.be/JAczd3mt3X0) and [Thunderf00t](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ziGI0i9VbE) are skeptical that this is possible at all, given physics and current material science. [Other critics, like Real Engineering](https://youtu.be/yrc632oilWo) are more sanguine." } ] }
