Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4060
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"actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 12223, "title": "Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?", "created_at": "2022-08-12T21:57:21.644821Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-03T19:30:01.586087Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-03T19:30:01.586087Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-23T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-14T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as _any_ psychology papers recently published in _Nature_ or _Science_.", "resolution_criteria": "We selected study 2A from a _Nature_ [paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04452-3) entitled: \"Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity\" (Shah and LaForest, 2022). \n\nThe original study’s **main hypothesis** is that <br />\npeople believe it is more likely that another person will detect their lie if they are given information about that other person than if they are not. See more details on the study in the fine print. \n\n\n<br />\n\n<br />\n[click for a higher-resolution version]( https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MhG_swrK_kWG8Tfnc7N_MPMUfXdhT8UP/view?usp=sharing)\n\nTo test the main hypothesis, the original experiment and the replication study used two-tailed independent samples t-tests. The analysis compared participants in the information and no information conditions on the question of how likely they believed their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie, in order to determine if having information about their ‘partner’ changed people’s estimate of the likelihood that their lie would be detected. \n\nThe original study found a significant difference between participants in the two experimental conditions, with participants in the information condition thinking that their partner was more likely to detect their lie (mean estimated probability, M_info = 41.06% [37.76–44.35%], n = 228) than participants in the no information condition (M_(no info) = 33.29% [30.34–36.24%], n = 234); Welch’s t: t(453.20) = 3.44; _p_ <0.001; Effect size: d = 0.32.\n\n\n***Will the main result from “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a two-tailed Welch’s t-test conducted on the replication experiment data reveals that there is a statistically significant difference (_p_ < 0.05) between the mean probability that participants assign to their ‘partner’ detecting their lie in the two experimental conditions (with a higher probability assigned by participants in the Information Condition compared to participants in the No Information condition). Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. \n\n[fine-print]\n\n## Study summary\n\nThe original study (N = 462) and the replication study (N = 475) examined whether people assigned a higher probability to another person detecting their lie if they were given information about that other person than if they were not (see the flowchart below). \n\nIn the replication experiment, like in the original study:\nParticipants were asked to write 5 statements about themselves: 4 truths and 1 lie. They were told those statements would be shared with another person, who would then guess which one was the lie. \nParticipants were either given 4 true statements about their ‘partner’ (Information Condition), or they were given no information about their ‘partner’ (No Information Condition). \nParticipants were asked to assign a percentage chance describing how likely their ‘partner’ would be to detect their lie.*\n\n\nOut of 481 participants, 6 were excluded due to missing inputs/data, leaving 475 participants. Participants could not proceed in the experiment if they left any of those statements blank, but there was no automated check on the content of what was submitted. The authors of the original study did not remove any subjects from their analysis, but they recommended to the Clearer Thinking team to do this quality check in the replication.\n\nIn the replication, prior to asking people to give their estimated percentage, participants were reminded that their 'partner' was shown their 5 statements and not told which were true. This was done in case participants had forgotten the conditions of the experiment. In the original study, this reminder had not been provided.\n\nIn the original experiment and in the replication, participants were not actually connected to a ‘partner.’ Participants in the information condition were randomly given one of two sets of four pre-generated statements designed to be relatively neutral and told that these were four true statements supplied by their ‘partner.' They were informed about this after all participants had completed the experiment.\n\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.) \n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668437804.502023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668437804.502023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7304752261203118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10227296739520486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 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divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?", "short_title": "Internal China independence declaration", "url_title": "Internal China independence declaration", "slug": "internal-china-independence-declaration", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-12T20:36:08.714597Z", "published_at": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T00:36:39.584822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12222, "title": "Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-08-12T20:36:08.714597Z", "open_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-17T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-17T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_China),\n\n> The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two special administrative regions. The political status of Taiwan Province along with a small fraction of Fujian Province[α] remain in dispute; those are under separate rule by the Republic of China, which is usually referred to as \"Taiwan\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if any provincial level administrative division of China, including Taiwan, makes a formal declaration of independence from China before January 1st 2050. A formal declaration of independence is said to have occurred if any of the following events happen within a region,\n\n1. The highest ranking local government in the region declares their independence from China.\n\n2. A referendum is held in the region, with >20% of the population taking part, and a plurality votes to declare independence from China. Within three months of the referendum, a political or government group with at least 1000 members formally declares their independence from China through a document, referencing the referendum.\n\n3. An insurrectionist group within the region declares their independence from China, and at least ten UN member states announce that they now recognize the new nation as an independent sovereign nation within one year of the declaration", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763339789.105656, "end_time": 1767054952.230586, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763339789.105656, "end_time": 1767054952.230586, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.37263907170256555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0591590047351378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11029708912239262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34967518349880955, 0.0, 0.31364716276001653, 0.007327801183143461, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3461178313234136, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.56316960073072, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.6520287480177143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289483.05773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289483.05773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7863557549574715, 0.21364424504252857 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 130, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_China),\n\n> The provincial level administrative divisions are the highest-level administrative divisions of China. There are 34 such divisions claimed by the People's Republic of China, classified as 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities and two special administrative regions. The political status of Taiwan Province along with a small fraction of Fujian Province[α] remain in dispute; those are under separate rule by the Republic of China, which is usually referred to as \"Taiwan\"." }, { "id": 12217, "title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Completion of Biden's First Term", "url_title": "Completion of Biden's First Term", "slug": "completion-of-bidens-first-term", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T17:33:02.256335Z", "published_at": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.099983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:03:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 237, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12217, "title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T17:33:02.256335Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T14:12:13.175530Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T14:12:13.175530Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T18:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T18:04:47.196473Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden does not complete his full term as the 46th President of the United States from January 20, 2021 to January 20, 2025, as specified by the [20th Amendment]((https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-20/section-1)) of the US Constitution. This may be for any reason, for example, due to his resignation, death, impeachment and removal, or another cause.\n\nThis question will not resolve if the Vice President or another person takes the duties of the Acting President as specified in [Sections 3 and 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_3:_President's_declaration_of_inability) of the 25th Amendment (for example, in the case of an [expected medical procedure](https://www.dw.com/en/us-kamala-harris-serves-as-acting-president-during-biden-colonoscopy/a-59883548)) it will only resolve as **Yes** if Biden is fully removed from the office.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if the President's term is legally determined to end prior to noon on January 20, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737022571.269287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737022571.269287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.051302373734206985 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.498490719677703, 7.799599075083417, 1.412321823513652, 0.6559622596504544, 0.9148959597722846, 1.2444554786180881, 0.23939121658740856, 0.36205443249628844, 0.130073448106455, 0.030447336639071378, 0.5335415709754967, 0.02167726654832827, 0.11732905973792135, 0.02313471425938554, 0.14181647594602081, 0.00029981641072294725, 0.31218482408889453, 0.015219484522130806, 0.00582994230376245, 0.0, 0.31765065672585246, 0.0, 0.08613616144963625, 0.01629790587613884, 0.0, 0.04357439250702226, 0.000866674322036283, 0.003883458149464286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1301072679302837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.581711694063564e-05, 0.0, 0.006408642718728042, 0.0, 0.07090442465611883, 9.169354802457478e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026760709170733064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07660166398570915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013133371163358528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09675462506140017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006102727274173992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015583699496058777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018417141444656783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047654232643996415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7589483630464879 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.52473858153924, "peer_score": 15.254075921938874, "coverage": 0.999936015500086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999936015500086, "spot_peer_score": 70.36007155627559, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 85.52473858153924, "peer_archived_score": 15.254075921938874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 70.36007155627559, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287906.506733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287906.506733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9864918314252131, 0.013508168574786827 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 783, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nRepublican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):\n\n>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.\n\nThroughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296)." }, { "id": 12215, "title": "If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump Disqualification Unconstitutional", "url_title": "Trump Disqualification Unconstitutional", "slug": "trump-disqualification-unconstitutional", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T03:08:34.175822Z", "published_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.370125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", 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2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T03:08:34.175822Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.\n\nThese offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), which states:\n\n>(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.\n\n>(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.\n\nIn early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071. \n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/):\n\n>While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\nHowever, Reuters also notes:\n\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.\n\nAnother Metaculus question, '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/),' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, the question '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/)' resolves as **Yes**, and if such disqualification is later ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States; OR if such disqualification is ruled unconstitutional by an appellate court inferior to the US Supreme Court, AND the US Supreme Court refuses to hear an appeal against a lower court's prior ruling that such a disqualification is unconstitutional", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709565309.482892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709565309.482892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9199653231803251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0395767589921578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012129540518840794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013972838105430912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030332771541447954, 0.0, 0.0, 6.565167425399423e-05, 0.002368825497875868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4661945276835664, 0.0, 0.10930641969888927, 0.05063545436554874, 0.0, 0.003202788380971702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015604433143409473, 0.003921833486275472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022492667714289, 0.006223618988669347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041298684343583575, 0.003170524031739523, 0.0728603091741109, 0.05333736318253971, 0.002441281266328117, 0.0, 0.0002249551056478572, 0.008226760038416934, 0.2743628390553545, 0.0003770686253336921, 0.0, 0.006994728487179235, 0.02316179493181433, 0.09037759258484226, 0.011243979008062928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3973371768968283, 0.005440232710632233, 0.0, 0.17834949417199236, 0.0, 1.0732073812009613, 0.11565234661238516, 0.08945243275130947, 0.002141215690394542, 0.03935582276844598, 1.7774795857363954, 0.7723811252061117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5596828722761102, 2.4471475213658054, 1.3471809080012396, 1.0912308999502298, 2.184732140397824, 6.93366874767874 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.15430363529979, "coverage": 0.6988083144790931, "baseline_score": 32.996856492631856, "spot_peer_score": 7.713632317509798, "peer_archived_score": 8.15430363529979, "baseline_archived_score": 32.996856492631856, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.713632317509798 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709278947.305728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709278947.305728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1405668597178399, 0.8594331402821601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 332, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.\n\nThese offenses include (inter alia) those under [18 U.S. Code § 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), which states:\n\n>(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.\n\n>(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.\n\nIn early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071. \n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/):\n\n>While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\nHowever, Reuters also notes:\n\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.\n\nAnother Metaculus question, '[Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12214/d-j-trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025/),' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025." }, { "id": 12214, "title": "Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump Disqualified before Jan 20, 2025", "url_title": "Trump Disqualified before Jan 20, 2025", "slug": "trump-disqualified-before-jan-20-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-11T02:57:42.680030Z", "published_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.687465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12214, "title": "Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2022-08-11T02:57:42.680030Z", "open_time": "2022-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T08:38:41.075241Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T08:38:41.075241Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T23:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. \n\nAccording to CNN: \n\n>The former President confirmed that FBI agents were at Mar-a-Lago and said \"they even broke into my safe.\" He was at Trump Tower in New York when the search warrant was executed in Florida, a person familiar told CNN.\n\n>\"My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,\" Trump said in a statement Monday evening.\n\n>...\n\n>\"It is a federal crime to remove classified documents wrongly. And so if you are filling out that affidavit and you have to list the crime, you can list that as the crime,\" said Elie Honig, a former federal and state prosecutor and a CNN senior legal analyst.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/ ):\n\n>While the [Presidential Records Act](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/44/chapter-22) does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under [a law, known by its code number 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>Even if the search warrant pertains to Trump's handling of official documents, he could end up facing charges for different crimes, said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal offices, so long as the presidency is included as an office that Trump is ruled disqualified from holding.\n\nAny later court rulings, such as appeal judgments that overturn the judgment of an earlier court, are immaterial to the resolution of this question: the question resolves immediately if Trump is ruled disqualified, and does not re-resolve differently if an appellate court later determines that judgment to have been unconstitutional, unlawful, or otherwise incorrect", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703027222.835016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703027222.835016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3154951115813157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.06353667767035587, 0.05239206843449304, 0.5882278686878067, 6.571746667824727e-05, 0.0, 0.2717788052153353, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4581179382117118, 0.012461046076939902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4578159594265775, 1.6394624483934486, 0.03756522271512681, 0.9539532924043488, 0.0, 0.0026327402556635855, 0.9970675997359841, 0.0, 0.0035880521054971015, 0.03508309377229755, 0.0, 2.1548509205833324, 0.20705710077589629, 0.005643973180777202, 0.2849747960507809, 0.0, 0.31035325276057113, 0.0052739218686467665, 0.028465057377240626, 2.5657575520970957, 0.40970106707192866, 1.670376644644367, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.1799806070891097, 0.25755362780572283, 0.0, 1.107530094142033, 0.5107329630580187, 0.7883280510469263, 0.0, 0.5597471071576301, 0.1396505883608381, 0.0, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.009753336837936988, 0.002925428569857308, 0.4157391615797916, 0.0, 0.05983833686932793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.14773311270320055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21877483394325103, 0.0, 0.00048559004796517485, 0.0, 0.045944948200045986, 0.0, 0.08674408552529388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00692033179503728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.001162523196728 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.248377124238575, "coverage": 0.5542523863001522, "baseline_score": -39.371823102458954, "spot_peer_score": 88.96990130411355, "peer_archived_score": 6.248377124238575, "baseline_archived_score": -39.371823102458954, "spot_peer_archived_score": 88.96990130411355 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703027222.887543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703027222.887543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7724714710333371, 0.22752852896666287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 308, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2022, [federal agents executed a search warrant](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/politics/mar-a-lago-search-warrant-fbi-donald-trump/index.html) at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of former US President Donald Trump, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. \n\nAccording to CNN: \n\n>The former President confirmed that FBI agents were at Mar-a-Lago and said \"they even broke into my safe.\" He was at Trump Tower in New York when the search warrant was executed in Florida, a person familiar told CNN.\n\n>\"My beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents,\" Trump said in a statement Monday evening.\n\n>...\n\n>\"It is a federal crime to remove classified documents wrongly. And so if you are filling out that affidavit and you have to list the crime, you can list that as the crime,\" said Elie Honig, a former federal and state prosecutor and a CNN senior legal analyst.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/what-charges-might-trump-face-removing-white-house-records-2022-08-10/ ):\n\n>While the [Presidential Records Act](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/44/chapter-22) does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.\n\n>He could also be charged under [a law, known by its code number 2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071), making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.\n\n>Even if the search warrant pertains to Trump's handling of official documents, he could end up facing charges for different crimes, said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor.\n\n>...\n\n>A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.\n\n>But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.\n\n>If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain." }, { "id": 12122, "title": "Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?", "short_title": "PredictIt Default before 2023", "url_title": "PredictIt Default before 2023", "slug": "predictit-default-before-2023", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-08T14:40:14.976116Z", "published_at": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.600292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12122, "title": "Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-08-08T14:40:14.976116Z", "open_time": "2022-08-15T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-17T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T15:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "(See also: *[Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12120/predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023/)*)\n\n***\n\nPredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market platform allowing users based in the United States to bet on political events, under the auspices of a No-Action Letter by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On August 4, 2022, PredictIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the CFTC had withdrawn the No-Action Letter and that trading on the platform would cease on February 15, 2023.\n\nThis allows PredictIt users one final November election in which to place their bets and collect their winnings. The purpose of this question is to determine whether there is elevated counterparty risk on the part of PredictIt--i.e., the risk that the company would not fulfill its contractual obligation to allow its users to withdraw their winnings at any time through the end of the year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there has been a credible media reporting of any ordinary PredictIt user or users who have been unable to withdraw their funds from their PredictIt account on or before December 31, 2022.\n\nFor purposes of this question an \"ordinary\" user of PredictIt is one for whom there would be no reason for PredictIt to contractually be permitted to block a withdrawal.\n\nGenerally as a practical matter there should be consensus as to whether or not there has been any such reporting. However, the Metaculus admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.", "fine_print": "\"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets in the United States include Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and newspapers such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. Smaller or local media outlets will treated on a case-by-case basis. To take a random example, if WSB-TV News in Atlanta reported on a specific local resident who had been blocked from withdrawing their PredictIt funds, this would be treated as credible.", "post_id": 12122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485047.139948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485047.139948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03099942723344488 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.018233845851547, 0.16871148880955214, 0.5324674097611531, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.04150363755641347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.06425384799874803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038122920635919405, 0.18347201844502478, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14074560893615895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.89767738848744, "coverage": 0.9997940688683113, "baseline_score": 59.67016452990285, "spot_peer_score": 76.57127098984452, "peer_archived_score": 17.89767738848744, "baseline_archived_score": 59.67016452990285, "spot_peer_archived_score": 76.57127098984452 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485047.167157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485047.167157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "(See also: *[Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12120/predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023/)*)\n\n***\n\nPredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market platform allowing users based in the United States to bet on political events, under the auspices of a No-Action Letter by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On August 4, 2022, PredictIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the CFTC had withdrawn the No-Action Letter and that trading on the platform would cease on February 15, 2023.\n\nThis allows PredictIt users one final November election in which to place their bets and collect their winnings. The purpose of this question is to determine whether there is elevated counterparty risk on the part of PredictIt--i.e., the risk that the company would not fulfill its contractual obligation to allow its users to withdraw their winnings at any time through the end of the year." }, { "id": 12121, "title": "Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "NK to send 100+ troops to Ukraine before 2024", "url_title": "NK to send 100+ troops to Ukraine before 2024", "slug": "nk-to-send-100-troops-to-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-07T09:24:22.850735Z", "published_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.655711Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12121, "title": "Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-08-07T09:24:22.850735Z", "open_time": "2022-10-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-04T08:54:03.076214Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-04T08:54:03.076214Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Recent media reports suggest the possibility that [North Korea may send troops to Ukraine](https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russian-state-tv-north-korea-offers-kremlin-100000-troops/) to assist Russia.\n\n***Will North Korea have ≥100 troops in Ukraine before 2024, without Ukrainian consent?***\n\nResolves as **Yes** if 3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean military personnel are in Ukraine at any one time (including Crimea and/or the various \"People's Republic\" quasi-states) in defiance of the will of the recognized Ukrainian government. Based on Kyiv time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704058803.793651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704058803.793651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.012270463243577426 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.124063081899978, 8.504988298051213, 0.1969063972802551, 0.1786384250231599, 0.22605796006008558, 0.21722181732735207, 0.009699809237428903, 0.07523375668636881, 0.4130621881950718, 0.09504515910738182, 0.023767671898153295, 0.001665338431562253, 0.09622130965993445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006167933709844952, 0.006693079323327361, 0.2386427710303193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014042260175915235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 426, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 12120, "title": "Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?", "short_title": "PredictIt Open for Trading on Mar 15, 2023", "url_title": "PredictIt Open for Trading on Mar 15, 2023", "slug": "predictit-open-for-trading-on-mar-15-2023", "author_id": 117229, "author_username": "SignoreGalilei", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-06T00:43:37.405294Z", "published_at": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.263883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12120, "title": "Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-08-06T00:43:37.405294Z", "open_time": "2022-08-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-12T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-12T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-15T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "PredictIt (predictit.org) is a prediction market website associated with Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and operated by Aristotle, Inc. On August 4, 2022, PredcitIt [announced](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) that the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had withdrawn the No-Action Letter under which PredictIt had been legally operating since 2014. The CFTC [announcement thereof ](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22) declared that all PredictIt markets must be \"closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on February 15, 2023.\"\n\n***Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 15, 2023?***\n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** if, on March 15, 2023 at 12:00 pm EST, an ordinary user in the USA can create an account on PredictIt, deposit funds, trade on a prediction market using real currency, and withdraw funds from PredictIt, all legally and without the use of a VPN or similar technology to mask the user's location.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678803142.374167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678803142.374167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": 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"movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 352, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 12117, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Virgin Galactic Bankruptcy Filing by 2026", "url_title": "Virgin Galactic Bankruptcy Filing by 2026", "slug": "virgin-galactic-bankruptcy-filing-by-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-04T20:30:09.821187Z", "published_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:56:44.206699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12117, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-04T20:30:09.821187Z", "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic) is an American publicly-traded spaceflight company founded by Richard Branson. The company is developing commercial spacecraft and aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists. \n\nThe company went public through a SPAC merger in 2019, and reached a peak market capitalisation of over $14 billion [in February 2021.](https://ycharts.com/companies/SPCE/market_cap) However, since that time, the company's stock price has declined dramatically, falling more than 80% to less than $2.5 billion.\n\nThe company continues to burn cash, [losing over $100 million in Q2 of 2022,](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx) and recording revenue of just $357,000 in the quarter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of August 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763168193.703564, "end_time": 1770840946.958, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.032 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763168193.703564, "end_time": 1770840946.958, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.032 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.968, 0.032 ], "means": [ 0.09124153273459504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9235250802035939, 1.4696852014290385, 1.8404836070990824, 1.9003977628898316, 1.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.2403700099395794, 0.3235495858073233, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4665614318223838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30297022896742426, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.12469124550422711, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 0.0, 0.09119355473398515, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290066.011925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290066.011925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6529500128563894, 0.3470499871436105 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 562, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic) is an American publicly-traded spaceflight company founded by Richard Branson. The company is developing commercial spacecraft and aims to provide suborbital spaceflights to space tourists. \n\nThe company went public through a SPAC merger in 2019, and reached a peak market capitalisation of over $14 billion [in February 2021.](https://ycharts.com/companies/SPCE/market_cap) However, since that time, the company's stock price has declined dramatically, falling more than 80% to less than $2.5 billion.\n\nThe company continues to burn cash, [losing over $100 million in Q2 of 2022,](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx) and recording revenue of just $357,000 in the quarter." }, { "id": 12112, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Beyond Meat Bankruptcy before 2026", "url_title": "Beyond Meat Bankruptcy before 2026", "slug": "beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-04T00:26:18.602762Z", "published_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T08:39:35.415935Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 12112, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-08-04T00:26:18.602762Z", "open_time": "2022-08-08T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-10T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. As of March 2021, Beyond Meat products were available in approximately 118,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of $14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has imploded, declining more than 80%, leaving the company with a market cap of $2.16 billion. In August 2022, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beyond-meat-sales-under-threat-plant-based-boom-withers-2022-08-03/?taid=62eacf17fb7427000132fa56&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter):\n\n>Beyond Meat Inc is headed for an unappetizing second quarter as the plant-based food craze withers in the face of several weak product tests at restaurants and mediocre reviews.\n\nThis decline in the company's fortunes has [led some to speculate that the company will go bankrupt if it does not cut costs](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meats-cash-burn-is-putting-the-stock-at-risk-of-falling-to-0-warns-new-constructs-11659461866): \n\n>“Beyond Meat must dramatically cut costs and lower its cash burn, or it will go bankrupt,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note released on Tuesday. “Companies with heavy cash burn and little cash on hand are risky in any market, but especially now.”\n\nOn August 3 2022, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/beyond-meat-eliminates-about-40-positions-in-cost-cutting-move?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business#xj4y7vzkg) that the company had announced a round of layoffs:\n\n>Plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat Inc. eliminated about 40 positions as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, Chief Executive Officer Ethan Brown told employees in an internal memo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2026. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Beyond Meat, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Beyond Meat, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of August 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763109564.772149, "end_time": 1763940540.069643, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763109564.772149, "end_time": 1763940540.069643, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.16074365765109844 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4351485782393614, 0.6024638172748795, 1.2873840552683877, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 2.300555108700757, 0.7475447618700763, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.903027170571982, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17923772786040093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.2575883073886892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.2564634103625284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038905714767909653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289491.950198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289491.950198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47829335979484255, 0.5217066402051574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 434, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyond_Meat) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. As of March 2021, Beyond Meat products were available in approximately 118,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of $14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has imploded, declining more than 80%, leaving the company with a market cap of $2.16 billion. In August 2022, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/beyond-meat-sales-under-threat-plant-based-boom-withers-2022-08-03/?taid=62eacf17fb7427000132fa56&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter):\n\n>Beyond Meat Inc is headed for an unappetizing second quarter as the plant-based food craze withers in the face of several weak product tests at restaurants and mediocre reviews.\n\nThis decline in the company's fortunes has [led some to speculate that the company will go bankrupt if it does not cut costs](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meats-cash-burn-is-putting-the-stock-at-risk-of-falling-to-0-warns-new-constructs-11659461866): \n\n>“Beyond Meat must dramatically cut costs and lower its cash burn, or it will go bankrupt,” wrote New Constructs CEO David Trainer, in a note released on Tuesday. “Companies with heavy cash burn and little cash on hand are risky in any market, but especially now.”\n\nOn August 3 2022, Bloomberg [reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/beyond-meat-eliminates-about-40-positions-in-cost-cutting-move?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business#xj4y7vzkg) that the company had announced a round of layoffs:\n\n>Plant-based meat maker Beyond Meat Inc. eliminated about 40 positions as part of a broader cost-cutting plan, Chief Executive Officer Ethan Brown told employees in an internal memo." }, { "id": 12106, "title": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?", "short_title": "TB Biologic Therapy by 2038", "url_title": "TB Biologic Therapy by 2038", "slug": "tb-biologic-therapy-by-2038", "author_id": 122601, "author_username": "jservello", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:29:31.657068Z", "published_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.663518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2038-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2038-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides “have demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models”. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a clinical trial is registered on [ClinicalTrials.gov](https://clinicaltrials.gov/) which tests a biologic therapy's efficacy against tuberculosis in human subjects. The success or efficacy of the therapy is not relevant to the resolution of the question; performance of the trial is the sole criterion. Any stage of clinical trial ([phase 1 or later](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases_of_clinical_research)) will be sufficient to resolve the question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12106, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760669759.445284, "end_time": 1766575115.079132, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4136968553 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760669759.445284, "end_time": 1766575115.079132, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4136968553 ], "centers": [ 0.618 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.382, 0.618 ], "means": [ 0.5905663055575409 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 1.2462571355730265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8030484213491771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289117.14173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289117.14173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47190123848953613, 0.5280987615104639 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Among the many challenges of [tuberculosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis) elimination, multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and extensively drug resistant TB (XDR-TB) are major concerns in areas of very severe TB incidence, especially in [countries of the former Soviet Union](https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/28/6/taab069/6274753?login=true), [South](https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-021-00803-w) and [central Asia](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6938018/). There is also particular concern for [cities](https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/36/12/e152/299509), a major issue in an increasingly urbanizing world. \n\nOne possible tool in alleviating the problem of antimicrobial resistance includes [biologic therapies](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346). According to [Rivas-Santiago et al.](http://www.eurekaselect.com/article/89346), antimicrobial peptides “have demonstrated remarkable efficacy to kill mycobacteria in vitro and in vivo in experimental models”. [Dijksteel et al](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.616979/full). provide an overview of all clinical trials and therapeutic uses of biologic therapies in humans in Table 1 of their article, but none specifically target TB as of the article publication on February 22, 2021." }, { "id": 12105, "title": "Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?", "short_title": "New Tuberculosis Vaccine before 2028", "url_title": "New Tuberculosis Vaccine before 2028", "slug": "new-tuberculosis-vaccine-before-2028", "author_id": 122601, "author_username": "jservello", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:20:17.282704Z", "published_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.918911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12105, "title": "Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-08-03T21:20:17.282704Z", "open_time": "2022-08-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some correlates of protection as a result of receiving the BCG [are unclear from studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601272/) and it may have limited efficacy in [certain contexts](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.778028/full).\r\n\r\n[TB vaccine candidates](https://www.tbvi.eu/what-we-do/pipeline-of-vaccines/) hold potential for future immunisation programmes. Recent years have shown our ability to more rapidly develop drugs than in the past, and this has understandably led to a renewed interest in [mRNA-based solutions for TB](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216257/). \r\n\r\nThe Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative published in their [2021 report](https://www.tbvi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_pipeline_TB_vaccines_final.pdf) that VPM1002, GamTBvac, M72/AS01E, MIP, and MTBVAC are in phase III trials (typically the last phase of testing before data for a medical intervention is sent away for approval to a regulatory body). The completion times reach until 2027, but this is no guarantee of their efficacy or safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new tuberculosis vaccine is approved by any one of: the [US FDA](https://www.fda.gov/), [EU EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Japan's PMDA](https://www.pmda.go.jp/english/index.html)), at any time between August 1, 2022 to January 1, 2028. \r\n\r\nNote that this question does not concern the deployment, availability, efficacy or safety of such a vaccine. The sole criterion is approval by any of the 3 regulatory agencies for the purpose of preventing any strain(s) of tuberculosis", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763609986.862295, "end_time": 1765807400.433796, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763609986.862295, "end_time": 1765807400.433796, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.831489305223036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0566413615030195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4868836570685514, 0.0, 0.0, 1.596589295778137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288948.13084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288948.13084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.20168118102072086, 0.7983188189792791 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 18, 2021, the current vaccine for tuberculosis, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine, turned 100 years old. While it is considered critical for preventing disseminated TB forms and TB meningitis in children in endemic countries, some correlates of protection as a result of receiving the BCG [are unclear from studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601272/) and it may have limited efficacy in [certain contexts](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.778028/full).\r\n\r\n[TB vaccine candidates](https://www.tbvi.eu/what-we-do/pipeline-of-vaccines/) hold potential for future immunisation programmes. Recent years have shown our ability to more rapidly develop drugs than in the past, and this has understandably led to a renewed interest in [mRNA-based solutions for TB](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8216257/). \r\n\r\nThe Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative published in their [2021 report](https://www.tbvi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021_pipeline_TB_vaccines_final.pdf) that VPM1002, GamTBvac, M72/AS01E, MIP, and MTBVAC are in phase III trials (typically the last phase of testing before data for a medical intervention is sent away for approval to a regulatory body). The completion times reach until 2027, but this is no guarantee of their efficacy or safety." }, { "id": 12095, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "short_title": "UK Labour Government before June 2030", "url_title": "UK Labour Government before June 2030", "slug": "uk-labour-government-before-june-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-02T23:49:29.580642Z", "published_at": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.449337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12095, "title": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "created_at": "2022-08-02T23:49:29.580642Z", "open_time": "2022-08-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-07T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-07T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-05-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The Labour Party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum. In all general elections since 1922, Labour has been either the governing party or the Official Opposition. There have been six Labour prime ministers and thirteen Labour ministries.\n\nAs of 2022, the last Labour government in the UK [ended with the Brown premiership in May 2010.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) Since that time, the UK has been governed by the Conservative Party, first in coalition with the Liberal Democrats until 2015, and then as either a minority or majority government. \n\nIn 2019, the Labour Party achieved its [worst result at a general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) since 1935, while the Conservatives achieved their best result since 1987. Additionally, since 2001, the Conservatives have increased their share of the popular vote in every election (though this has not always meant an increase in number of seats in Parliament).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any time before June 1, 2030, the UK has a government formed by the Labour Party, either as a majority government, a minority government, or as the senior partner (the party with the most seats) in a formal coalition government. 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The Labour Party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum. In all general elections since 1922, Labour has been either the governing party or the Official Opposition. There have been six Labour prime ministers and thirteen Labour ministries.\n\nAs of 2022, the last Labour government in the UK [ended with the Brown premiership in May 2010.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) Since that time, the UK has been governed by the Conservative Party, first in coalition with the Liberal Democrats until 2015, and then as either a minority or majority government. \n\nIn 2019, the Labour Party achieved its [worst result at a general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) since 1935, while the Conservatives achieved their best result since 1987. Additionally, since 2001, the Conservatives have increased their share of the popular vote in every election (though this has not always meant an increase in number of seats in Parliament)." }, { "id": 12046, "title": "Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "short_title": "Kwasi Kwarteng Tory Leader before 2030", "url_title": "Kwasi Kwarteng Tory Leader before 2030", "slug": "kwasi-kwarteng-tory-leader-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-08-01T07:20:40.688700Z", "published_at": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:38:45.544698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12046, "title": "Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-08-01T07:20:40.688700Z", "open_time": "2022-08-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-06T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-06T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kwasi Kwarteng](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwasi_Kwarteng), born 26 May 1975, is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Spelthorne since 2010. Before entering politics, he was a newspaper columnist and financial analyst.\n\nAs of July 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/25/who-next-cabinet-rishi-sunak-liz-truss) that Kwarteng may be made Chancellor of the Exchequer, the UK's finance minister, if Liz Truss is elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party and becomes Prime Minister. Truss and Kwarteng have previously collaborated on the 2012 book [Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained). \n\nThe office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, alongside Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, is one of the UK's [Great Offices of State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Offices_of_State). In recent years, several MPs who have held these offices have become leaders of the Conservative Party. Then-serving Home Secretary Theresa May became Conservative leader in 2016, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson became Conservative leader in 2019, and currently serving Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is (as of August 1) [the runaway favourite](https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/07/20/15-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader) to be elected the next Conservative leader.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kwasi Kwarteng holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763560763.930692, "end_time": 1764125460.343604, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763560763.930692, "end_time": 1764125460.343604, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00452381815022748 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.962472346727713, 0.6064866325029841, 0.5354878057991908, 0.08360428990831931, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288136.696799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288136.696799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kwasi Kwarteng](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwasi_Kwarteng), born 26 May 1975, is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Spelthorne since 2010. Before entering politics, he was a newspaper columnist and financial analyst.\n\nAs of July 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/25/who-next-cabinet-rishi-sunak-liz-truss) that Kwarteng may be made Chancellor of the Exchequer, the UK's finance minister, if Liz Truss is elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party and becomes Prime Minister. Truss and Kwarteng have previously collaborated on the 2012 book [Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained). \n\nThe office of Chancellor of the Exchequer, alongside Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, is one of the UK's [Great Offices of State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Offices_of_State). In recent years, several MPs who have held these offices have become leaders of the Conservative Party. Then-serving Home Secretary Theresa May became Conservative leader in 2016, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson became Conservative leader in 2019, and currently serving Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is (as of August 1) [the runaway favourite](https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/2022/07/20/15-00/conservative-leadership-contest/next-conservative-leader) to be elected the next Conservative leader." }, { "id": 12041, "title": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "short_title": "Armed Conflict in the Balkans", "url_title": "Armed Conflict in the Balkans", "slug": "armed-conflict-in-the-balkans", "author_id": 118658, "author_username": "demirev", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-31T20:37:27.530474Z", "published_at": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.490135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:08:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12041, "title": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "created_at": "2022-07-31T20:37:27.530474Z", "open_time": "2022-08-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-14T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-14T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T02:09:15.762997Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-break-up), prompting some commentators to speculate that this may result in a war / civil war. This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least a medium magnitude in the region. To avoid any possible conflict on the definition of 'war' or 'civil war', the question is stated in terms of casualties of armed conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 500 combatants of any side in any potential armed conflict in the Balkans are reported KIA by at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) before January 1, 2025. If multiple armed conflicts occur within the specified time frame, the question will resolve positively if the sum of combatant casualties in all conflicts exceeds 500.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the Balkans consist of: **Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia**. These are all countries with 20%+ of their territory south of the Danube-Sava rivers. Note that this excludes Turkey and Romania.", "post_id": 12041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654833.569516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654833.569516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02246167205993877 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.137372986335238, 1.7916435015053163, 0.3366313000847743, 0.03347322664802679, 0.6869180119264404, 0.13125720433027036, 0.1874727013882846, 0.036857441906747584, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.025702770650142415, 0.5182104564900734, 0.1545958694210535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000227009300229, 0.04235425051830675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04709892323630396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18351837136595764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11089172218023127, 0.0, 0.11984158076934844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008171104020897034, 0.0, 0.0625760055549752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031656328832848765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.61045735635967, "peer_score": 10.418542836904729, "coverage": 0.999936059849565, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999936059849565, "spot_peer_score": 27.11006983952167, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 75.61045735635967, "peer_archived_score": 10.418542836904729, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.11006983952167, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287950.26231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287950.26231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 293, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Western Balkan region has seen a flare up in tension both in [Kosovo](https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-serbia-border-corssing-blocked-tensions/31967812.html) and in [Republika Srpska](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/21/eu-mulls-ways-to-ease-tensions-in-bosnia-to-prevent-break-up), prompting some commentators to speculate that this may result in a war / civil war. This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least a medium magnitude in the region. To avoid any possible conflict on the definition of 'war' or 'civil war', the question is stated in terms of casualties of armed conflict." }, { "id": 12020, "title": "Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?", "short_title": "UK re-entry into the European Economic Area", "url_title": "UK re-entry into the European Economic Area", "slug": "uk-re-entry-into-the-european-economic-area", "author_id": 122154, "author_username": "biloliiaa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-29T14:57:15.070291Z", "published_at": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T07:19:36.546821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12020, "title": "Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?", "created_at": "2022-07-29T14:57:15.070291Z", "open_time": "2022-08-01T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-03T00:50:08.974179Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-03T00:50:08.974179Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Under the terms of the [UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement) and the [UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement), the UK left the European single market on December 31, 2021. \n\nThe [European single market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_single_market) consists of member states of the EU as well as – with certain exceptions – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway through the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area). Switzerland is also considered a member of the European single market through bilateral treaties it has entered into with the EU, but is not a member of the European Economic Area and does not apply the entirety of EU acquis.\n\n[Opinion polling since 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)) has shown narrow support for British re-entry into the European Union. There is also public discussion of British re-entry into the European single market falling short of re-entry into the European Union, such as entry into the European Economic Area. \n\n[Age-stratified polling](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-19-20-june-2022/) shows large majorities for re-entry into the EU in the 18-24 and 25-34 cohorts, with a majority in the 35-44 cohort as well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2040, the UK is a member of the European Economic Area, either as a member of the European Union or as a member of the European Free Trade Association that has ratified the Agreement on European Economic Area.", "fine_print": "This question has been worded so as to only resolve positively if the UK is a member of the European Economic Area, which includes the European Union member states as well as the three European Free Trade Association member states that ratified the Agreement on European Economic Area (namely Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein). It therefore excludes a relationship like that which Switzerland has with the EU, where it is a member of the European single market through various bilateral agreements.", "post_id": 12020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760771966.097075, "end_time": 1764812151.298384, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760771966.097075, "end_time": 1764812151.298384, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6433592965837849 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288696.261414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288696.261414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5652352385676489, 0.43476476143235104 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 189, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31, 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Under the terms of the [UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement) and the [UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement), the UK left the European single market on December 31, 2021. \n\nThe [European single market](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_single_market) consists of member states of the EU as well as – with certain exceptions – Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway through the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area). Switzerland is also considered a member of the European single market through bilateral treaties it has entered into with the EU, but is not a member of the European Economic Area and does not apply the entirety of EU acquis.\n\n[Opinion polling since 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_United_Kingdom_rejoining_the_European_Union_(2020%E2%80%93present)) has shown narrow support for British re-entry into the European Union. There is also public discussion of British re-entry into the European single market falling short of re-entry into the European Union, such as entry into the European Economic Area. \n\n[Age-stratified polling](https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-19-20-june-2022/) shows large majorities for re-entry into the EU in the 18-24 and 25-34 cohorts, with a majority in the 35-44 cohort as well." }, { "id": 12001, "title": "Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?", "short_title": "US state mask mandate before Feb 1st, 2023", "url_title": "US state mask mandate before Feb 1st, 2023", "slug": "us-state-mask-mandate-before-feb-1st-2023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-27T00:59:44.482628Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.836332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12001, "title": "Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?", "created_at": "2022-07-27T00:59:44.482628Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Make mandates were widely introduced around the world to limit the spread of Covid-19. However, as of July 26th 2022, [all US states have scrapped their indoor mask mandates](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before February 1st 2023, and after the opening of this question, at least one US state implements an indoor mask mandate that applies to people in supermarkets. [This source](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html) can be used for resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12001, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675214077.2738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675214077.2738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017591733187408008 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.1835552648000585, 10.566198228793343, 0.5871161096157156, 0.2766738718257254, 0.015466976053567325, 1.323678918870725, 0.0, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.07879222225272986, 0.0, 0.0920078614354144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06118485830454136, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011821796854890113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01043759841194958, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.19713517485013082, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.06324954776192306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035489586503395306, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001072543509344465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042478303617855785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012636707624103119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.144994935052194, "coverage": 0.9999312388568985, "baseline_score": 60.269629261559714, "spot_peer_score": 20.33926216527494, "peer_archived_score": 10.144994935052194, "baseline_archived_score": 60.269629261559714, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.33926216527494 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675237336.757732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675237336.757732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 262, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Make mandates were widely introduced around the world to limit the spread of Covid-19. However, as of July 26th 2022, [all US states have scrapped their indoor mask mandates](https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/states-mask-mandates-coronavirus.html)." }, { "id": 12000, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?", "short_title": "Tesla first company with autonomous success", "url_title": "Tesla first company with autonomous success", "slug": "tesla-first-company-with-autonomous-success", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-26T22:18:45.069889Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T18:24:31.929538Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 12000, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?", "created_at": "2022-07-26T22:18:45.069889Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2037-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is taken from [this bet](https://longbets.org/887/) on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and\nMichael P Dierickx challenged the prediction.", "resolution_criteria": "The terms are reproduced from the [Long Bets website](https://longbets.org/887/),\n\n> Tesla would need at least 1 million cars on the road.\n\n> No other no other entity will have reached this milestone before Tesla\n\n> These cars would be SAE Level 4 Capable (as defined by: https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_202104/) for the full US cross country journey between 1652 Maiden Hair Ct, South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150, USA and 46 Klein Rd, Fort Kent, ME 04743 during all normal weather conditions that leave the road open and passable in a standard car.\n\n> SAE Level 4 will be considered safer than human drivers\n\n> This capability will be usable by the commercial public (i.e. at least tens of millions of consumers will have the option to pay for and use SAE Level 4).\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Yarrow Bouchard the winner of the bet, this question resolves positively. If they declare Michael P Dierickx the winner of this bet, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 12000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760406169.637593, "end_time": 1764510361.226084, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760406169.637593, "end_time": 1764510361.226084, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6673354715112195 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.1502614412040875, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.14036532421734857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.27503137722442117, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.16026094357950826, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45141670452392163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1567444344219187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2186871287394836 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288724.170842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288724.170842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6571325774292012, 0.34286742257079883 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is taken from [this bet](https://longbets.org/887/) on the website longbets.org. Yarrow Bouchard made the prediction, and\nMichael P Dierickx challenged the prediction." }, { "id": 11975, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?", "short_title": "Pelosi Visit to Taiwan in 2022", "url_title": "Pelosi Visit to Taiwan in 2022", "slug": "pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-in-2022", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-25T03:23:01.886291Z", "published_at": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.655658Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11975, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-07-25T03:23:01.886291Z", "open_time": "2022-07-26T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-27T01:49:34.061479Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-27T01:49:34.061479Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-02T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of [many previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&main-feed&search=Taiwan).\n\nIn July 2022, the Financial Times [reported](https://archive.ph/7LCHb) that [Nancy Pelosi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi) [would](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/china/china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html) [visit](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration [were worried](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have [flown over Taiwan's ADIZ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/taiwan-reports-largest-ever-incursion-as-38-chinese-planes-fly-over-air-space), which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis), following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan, as reported by reliable media outlets. \"Taiwan\" for the purposes of this question is any territory under the de facto sovereignty of the Republic of China.", "fine_print": "Visiting only non-Taiwan parts of ROC like Kinmen is still enough to trigger positive resolution.", "post_id": 11975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659457116.295628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659457116.295628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9710185626151665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00014505816309232794, 0.0, 0.0003151373724306775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02245302327317597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029674479600248042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00034863626606894556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003408879931309117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001924137498613383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021119294336889383, 0.0, 0.004768572472182695, 0.0, 0.005090721810490461, 0.0027501972622835484, 0.0027658325536118614, 9.662406367042021e-06, 0.0, 2.7208213753059447e-05, 0.062424159060714586, 7.747498399555727e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00137188167591332, 0.0002528306123521575, 0.0008714068235809071, 0.005691025568024508, 0.0, 0.049212529378038584, 0.10392751379970605, 0.00012825611473354196, 0.0001038088073296138, 0.14717684623944166, 0.49383180060212173, 0.0012852746216931211, 0.000615105331564898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042694813293123884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033508295599675537, 0.0, 0.008739447529384013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007452366481422634, 0.017021347634601624, 1.030202598257392, 0.0, 0.016087374125007305, 0.610834381219058, 0.13447423672959435, 0.7184068756944034, 0.23607313966488008, 0.5163473317988602, 0.3224530899463083, 19.845986121522223 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.30321201145444304, "coverage": 0.04283459376863571, "baseline_score": 2.048208314478644, "spot_peer_score": 7.613268852364207, "peer_archived_score": 0.30321201145444304, "baseline_archived_score": 2.048208314478644, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.613268852364207 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659451564.883369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659451564.883369, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0783687753301282, 0.9216312246698718 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 537, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan, and in particular its fraught relationship with China, have been the subject of [many previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&main-feed&search=Taiwan).\n\nIn July 2022, the Financial Times [reported](https://archive.ph/7LCHb) that [Nancy Pelosi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi) [would](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/china/china-warns-pelosi-taiwan-visit-intl-hnk/index.html) [visit](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) Taiwan in August. CNN reported that Biden administration [were worried](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html) that China could declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan if she visited. If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first visit by a Speaker of the House of Representatives in 25 years. Recently, many Chinese planes have [flown over Taiwan's ADIZ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/02/taiwan-reports-largest-ever-incursion-as-38-chinese-planes-fly-over-air-space), which China claims as its own. However, there has not been a serious crisis over Taiwan since [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis), following Taiwan's then-President Lee Teng Hui giving a speech at Cornell, his alma mater." }, { "id": 11939, "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?", "short_title": "US CDC Recommends Vaccination for All MSM", "url_title": "US CDC Recommends Vaccination for All MSM", "slug": "us-cdc-recommends-vaccination-for-all-msm", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-21T18:25:28.704195Z", "published_at": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.943706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11939, "title": "Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?", "created_at": "2022-07-21T18:25:28.704195Z", "open_time": "2022-07-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-26T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-26T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Monkeypox is a virus that is closely related to but distinct from smallpox and which, until recently, was [limited](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) to parts of Central Africa and West Africa where the virus has animal reservoirs. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" \n\nAn [ongoing outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak) of monkeypox was confirmed in the spring of 2022, beginning with a cluster of cases found in the United Kingdom. Since May 2022, human-to-human transmission has been known to be occurring in areas where monkeypox has has not been previously endemic, including Europe, North America, and South America. As of July 21, 2022, there have been [15.3k](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=1289291271) confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox reported globally in countries outside Central/West Africa.\n\nCases have [mostly](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-the-monkeypox-outbreak-is-mostly-affecting-men-who-have-sex-with-men) but [not exclusively](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.29.2200552?emailalert=true) been identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) . Most transmission events seem to be occurring in sexual networks, likely through prolonged skin-to-skin contact. \n\nThe vaccine most widely used at the moment for preventing monkeypox infection is [JYNNEOS](https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/jynneos-smallpox-monkeypox-vaccine), which is the only monkeypox vaccine that has been [licensed](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/jynneos) by the US FDA. \n\nThe US CDC is [currently recommending](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html) the following regarding vaccination:\n*\"CDC recommends vaccination for people who have been in close contact with people who have monkeypox. Currently, this outbreak is largely affecting gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. People who may be eligible for vaccination include:\"*\n>\n- People who have been identified by public health officials as a contact of someone with monkeypox\n- People who may have been exposed to monkeypox, such as: (1) People who are aware that one of their sexual partners in the past 2 weeks has been diagnosed with monkeypox, (2) People who had multiple sexual partners in the past 2 weeks in an area with known monkeypox cases\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand what future guidance on vaccination efforts might look like. This may inform state efforts to pursue a broader vaccination campaign as opposed to [ring vaccination](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/public-health/ring-vaccination.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC updates its monkeypox vaccination recommendations so that it, at minimum, it recommends that **all** MSM (not just those who have had multiple sex partners in recent weeks) in the **entire** US (not just areas where monkeypox cases have been confirmed) be made eligible for vaccination and that it moreover recommends that members of this group should be vaccinated", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672586775.953083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672586775.953083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020923678972427705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.110514604871973, 0.28807439937996304, 0.24872457007543428, 0.0, 0.3404374516636412, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06006016621969254, 0.07982935021231018, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021384087234125715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.035870519966027276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.3426107668685425, "coverage": 0.9933138867233462, "baseline_score": 31.67971384954257, "spot_peer_score": 14.876236754280656, "peer_archived_score": 7.3426107668685425, "baseline_archived_score": 31.67971384954257, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.876236754280656 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672472605.516923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672472605.516923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Monkeypox is a virus that is closely related to but distinct from smallpox and which, until recently, was [limited](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) to parts of Central Africa and West Africa where the virus has animal reservoirs. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" \n\nAn [ongoing outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak) of monkeypox was confirmed in the spring of 2022, beginning with a cluster of cases found in the United Kingdom. Since May 2022, human-to-human transmission has been known to be occurring in areas where monkeypox has has not been previously endemic, including Europe, North America, and South America. As of July 21, 2022, there have been [15.3k](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=1289291271) confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox reported globally in countries outside Central/West Africa.\n\nCases have [mostly](https://www.science.org/content/article/why-the-monkeypox-outbreak-is-mostly-affecting-men-who-have-sex-with-men) but [not exclusively](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.29.2200552?emailalert=true) been identified among men who have sex with men (MSM) . Most transmission events seem to be occurring in sexual networks, likely through prolonged skin-to-skin contact. \n\nThe vaccine most widely used at the moment for preventing monkeypox infection is [JYNNEOS](https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/jynneos-smallpox-monkeypox-vaccine), which is the only monkeypox vaccine that has been [licensed](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/jynneos) by the US FDA. \n\nThe US CDC is [currently recommending](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/considerations-for-monkeypox-vaccination.html) the following regarding vaccination:\n*\"CDC recommends vaccination for people who have been in close contact with people who have monkeypox. Currently, this outbreak is largely affecting gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. People who may be eligible for vaccination include:\"*\n>\n- People who have been identified by public health officials as a contact of someone with monkeypox\n- People who may have been exposed to monkeypox, such as: (1) People who are aware that one of their sexual partners in the past 2 weeks has been diagnosed with monkeypox, (2) People who had multiple sexual partners in the past 2 weeks in an area with known monkeypox cases\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand what future guidance on vaccination efforts might look like. This may inform state efforts to pursue a broader vaccination campaign as opposed to [ring vaccination](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/bioterrorism-response-planning/public-health/ring-vaccination.html)." } ] }
\n](http://chart](https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screen_Shot_2022-10-02_at_11.24.41_PM.jpeg)%5Cn){kind=link}
\n](http://chart](https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screen_Shot_2022-10-02_at_11.25.01_PM.jpeg)%5Cn){kind=link}
