Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4080
{ "count": 6388, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4060", "results": [ { "id": 11919, "title": "Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine Hits Russia w/US Rocket", "url_title": "Ukraine Hits Russia w/US Rocket", "slug": "ukraine-hits-russia-wus-rocket", "author_id": 120766, "author_username": "jonathannankivell", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-19T11:26:33.284881Z", "published_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.408332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11919, "title": "Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?", "created_at": "2022-07-19T11:26:33.284881Z", "open_time": "2022-10-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-06T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T21:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army) that Ukraine would not use them against targets on Russian soil. According to public knowledge, that condition has not since been relaxed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if HIMARS, or any other American-provided artillery rocket or tactical ballistic missile system firing a warhead at least as heavy as the standard HIMARS rocket's ~200 pounds, is used against targets on Russian soil by Ukraine or Ukraine-aligned forces before July 1, 2023.\n\nMetaculus will consider all credible sources to determine whether an attack on Russian soil can be attributed to Ukraine and to US weapons systems.\n\nAmbiguous resolution will not be selected unless at least two months have passed since the last relevant alleged or disputed rocket strike incident that occurred before July 2023, so as to allow time for clarifying information to surface.\n\nRussian soil means territory that was broadly recognized as Russian on January 1, 2014, prior to the first phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, and prior to the multiple Russian armed takeovers and self-declared annexations of formerly Ukrainian-controlled territories", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688158682.103088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688158682.103088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040158798084746025 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.576027834779486, 6.209120661706345, 1.4522120730819101, 1.5532990191988723, 0.7065763567498805, 3.1623006197226426, 1.0957311699550787, 0.06715165376840072, 0.2662626334872887, 0.09372304225525503, 0.01327025004659466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039847443051848945, 0.03518238236030273, 0.03346026184443715, 0.022672650554664806, 0.04476123423122462, 0.0, 0.017435484311477102, 0.040489876806055876, 0.14557045699324983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04399295600050929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4251326814013262, 0.0, 0.0961905519965238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030641044197464665, 0.0, 0.000270310893408561, 0.09676420659415154, 0.0, 0.08180045940927602, 0.001947789824515951, 0.02896006549424842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011357208052754583, 0.009098119385622555, 0.013280479299666087, 0.10423139374457896, 0.0010678085286069262, 0.0001320779292748224, 0.0014552717956485787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016067478993924448, 0.0227013521895371, 0.002572056106221227, 0.0008584117833175608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.0005353645749357605, 0.05656818485625512, 0.000360863308118855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004134784305847012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031326503155383454 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.87966031175818, "coverage": 0.9998748655921587, "baseline_score": 12.420234511323974, "spot_peer_score": 10.070023134555822, "peer_archived_score": 9.87966031175818, "baseline_archived_score": 12.420234511323974, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.070023134555822 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688158682.142609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688158682.142609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9916533295733211, 0.008346670426678936 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 432, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late June, America began sending [High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS) (HIMARS) to Ukraine. Escalation risks being kept keenly in mind, these powerful long-range rocket launchers were sent [on the condition](https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army) that Ukraine would not use them against targets on Russian soil. According to public knowledge, that condition has not since been relaxed." }, { "id": 11904, "title": "Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?", "short_title": "Labor runs alone in 2022 Israel election", "url_title": "Labor runs alone in 2022 Israel election", "slug": "labor-runs-alone-in-2022-israel-election", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-18T02:07:53.125128Z", "published_at": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.585552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11904, "title": "Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?", "created_at": "2022-07-18T02:07:53.125128Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-16T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-16T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-16T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-11T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel is [having an election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11654/next-israeli-prime-minister/) on November 1, 2022. The Blue and White Party and New Hope Party, two anti-Netanyahu parties, have announced that they will [run together](https://www.timesofisrael.com/blue-and-white-new-hope-confirm-new-union-will-run-as-joint-slate-in-november-vote/) in the election. T[he Israeli Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party), the party that [all Prime Ministers in the early days of the state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party) were affiliated with recently had a [primary](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-712334). The [leader Merav Michaeli](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-712384) wants Labor to run alone, whereas challenger Eran Hermoni [wanted the Labor party to merge](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-711902) with a \"centrist party\" such as Lapid's Yesh Atid. The Labor Party allied with Hatnuah as the [Zionist Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionist_Union) in the 2015 Israeli election, and [allied with Gesher and Meretz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor-Gesher-Meretz) in 2020. Lists of candidates are due to be submitted on September 15, and the election is on November 1. Former Meretz leader [Zehava Gal-On](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-announcing-return-to-politics-zehava-galon-says-shes-eyeing-meretz-labor-merger/) will contest the Meretz primary, and supports a Labor-Meretz merger.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Israeli Labor Party does not run in a joint slate with any other parties, as per credible media sources. It will resolve as **No** if the Israeli Labor Party runs in a joint slate with at least one other party", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11904, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662842700.68934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662842700.68934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5531420715319436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22783087461204504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.9223139665550486, 1.1599591630675348, 3.495531397420983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.611491535705001, "coverage": 0.9500728989927594, "baseline_score": -5.42234588708059, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 1.611491535705001, "baseline_archived_score": -5.42234588708059, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662842700.706204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662842700.706204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4352121293575568, 0.5647878706424432 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel is [having an election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11654/next-israeli-prime-minister/) on November 1, 2022. The Blue and White Party and New Hope Party, two anti-Netanyahu parties, have announced that they will [run together](https://www.timesofisrael.com/blue-and-white-new-hope-confirm-new-union-will-run-as-joint-slate-in-november-vote/) in the election. T[he Israeli Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party), the party that [all Prime Ministers in the early days of the state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Labor_Party) were affiliated with recently had a [primary](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-712334). The [leader Merav Michaeli](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-712384) wants Labor to run alone, whereas challenger Eran Hermoni [wanted the Labor party to merge](https://www.jpost.com/israeli-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-711902) with a \"centrist party\" such as Lapid's Yesh Atid. The Labor Party allied with Hatnuah as the [Zionist Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionist_Union) in the 2015 Israeli election, and [allied with Gesher and Meretz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor-Gesher-Meretz) in 2020. Lists of candidates are due to be submitted on September 15, and the election is on November 1. Former Meretz leader [Zehava Gal-On](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/after-announcing-return-to-politics-zehava-galon-says-shes-eyeing-meretz-labor-merger/) will contest the Meretz primary, and supports a Labor-Meretz merger." }, { "id": 11856, "title": "Will Israel join the EU before 2050?", "short_title": "Israel EU Membership by 2050", "url_title": "Israel EU Membership by 2050", "slug": "israel-eu-membership-by-2050", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-14T00:34:49.586703Z", "published_at": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T21:06:35.839078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11856, "title": "Will Israel join the EU before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-07-14T00:34:49.586703Z", "open_time": "2022-10-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>Although Israel is not geographically located in Europe, it is a member in many European transnational federations and frameworks, and takes part in many European sporting events and the Eurovision Song Contest.\n\nCyprus, which is located very close to Israel, has been a [member of the EU for many years](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/cyprus_en).\n\nAgain from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself currently proposes instead the closest possible integration \"just short of full membership.\" Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between October 5, 2022 to December 31, 2049, inclusive. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. Israel must officially begin its membership during this period; an announcement or promise of future membership will not suffice", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11856, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762290384.903894, "end_time": 1764647963.071103, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762290384.903894, "end_time": 1764647963.071103, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040299921096793034 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.964970747354705, 3.0662648823933245, 0.4476993102682869, 1.6236927823751506, 0.17963540141379458, 0.006908280092399992, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.051048844795417644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>Although Israel is not geographically located in Europe, it is a member in many European transnational federations and frameworks, and takes part in many European sporting events and the Eurovision Song Contest.\n\nCyprus, which is located very close to Israel, has been a [member of the EU for many years](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/cyprus_en).\n\nAgain from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself currently proposes instead the closest possible integration \"just short of full membership.\" Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon." }, { "id": 11855, "title": "Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "short_title": "Tesla Bankruptcy before 2026?", "url_title": "Tesla Bankruptcy before 2026?", "slug": "tesla-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-13T21:49:01.342688Z", "published_at": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.649345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11855, "title": "Will Tesla file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-07-13T21:49:01.342688Z", "open_time": "2022-10-24T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-10-25T16:02:29.265569Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-10-25T16:02:29.265569Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (electric cars and trucks), battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla is one of the world's most valuable companies and remains the world's most valuable automaker with a market capitalization of more than $950 billion as of September 2022. In 2021, [it made history](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/investing/tesla-stock-trillion-dollar-market-cap/index.html) as the first automaker to achieve a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.\n\nDespite this extraordinary run of success in the markets, Tesla [has long been one of the most-shorted companies,](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-tesla-tech-stocks-short-sellers-elon-musk-ev-autos-2022-9) and CEO Elon Musk has [stated](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/cars/elon-musk-tesla-losses-bankruptcy-threat/index.html) that the company continues to face significant challenges that pose a risk of bankrupting the automaker:\n\n>\"The past two years have been an absolute nightmare of supply chain interruptions, one thing after another,\" Musk said in an interview with a Tesla owners group. \"We're not out of it yet. That's overwhelmingly our concern is how do we keep the factories operating so we can pay people and not go bankrupt.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Tesla, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2026. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Tesla, Inc. or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Tesla, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of September 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057266.818258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057266.818258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05484169464730186 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4789156075816514, 7.511795636897954, 1.6742075205270437, 0.5408464331859202, 0.07034599129182002, 0.11878036582253579, 0.2796605246591077, 0.39393617421927296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37517118826059387, 0.18214514839267099, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4191576116334327, 0.0, 0.5607357997519564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.615523979804894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09818838287618935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057266.846711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057266.846711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980852500450516, 0.0019147499549484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) is an American multinational automotive and clean energy company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles (electric cars and trucks), battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla is one of the world's most valuable companies and remains the world's most valuable automaker with a market capitalization of more than $950 billion as of September 2022. In 2021, [it made history](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/25/investing/tesla-stock-trillion-dollar-market-cap/index.html) as the first automaker to achieve a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion.\n\nDespite this extraordinary run of success in the markets, Tesla [has long been one of the most-shorted companies,](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-tesla-tech-stocks-short-sellers-elon-musk-ev-autos-2022-9) and CEO Elon Musk has [stated](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/cars/elon-musk-tesla-losses-bankruptcy-threat/index.html) that the company continues to face significant challenges that pose a risk of bankrupting the automaker:\n\n>\"The past two years have been an absolute nightmare of supply chain interruptions, one thing after another,\" Musk said in an interview with a Tesla owners group. \"We're not out of it yet. That's overwhelmingly our concern is how do we keep the factories operating so we can pay people and not go bankrupt.\"" }, { "id": 11847, "title": "Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?", "short_title": "Will Brandy Bottone be found guilty?", "url_title": "Will Brandy Bottone be found guilty?", "slug": "will-brandy-bottone-be-found-guilty", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-13T14:53:18.377095Z", "published_at": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.052002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11847, "title": "Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?", "created_at": "2022-07-13T14:53:18.377095Z", "open_time": "2022-07-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-17T14:35:05.105956Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-17T14:35:05.105956Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-20T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brandy Bottone, 32, of Plano, TX, was pulled over on June 29 by a police officer looking for HOV lane violators. Texas HOV lane rules require more than one occupant to be in a vehicle. Bottone told officers that under Texas law, in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, a fetus counts as a person and was therefore the second occupant of the vehicle under the law. \n\nBottone plans to fight the ticket, which carries a potential penalty of $215. The trial date is set for July 20, 2022. \n\nFor more background: [Local NBC News story](https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/pregnant-woman-cited-for-hov-violation-says-her-unborn-baby-should-count-as-second-person/3010193/)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if Brandy Bottone pleads guilty, nolo contendere (no contest), or is found guilty per credible media reporting, regardless of sentence. Otherwise resolves negatively (for example if charges are dropped or she is found not guilty)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11847, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658298428.89461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5031803122556786 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658298428.89461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5031803122556786 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.5103841585606714 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4227234155826435, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27148578596111994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.07019543945745096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 2.272714441128051, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2612160510950288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.8186979815576536, 0.3331976193267136, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.337258228478115, "coverage": 0.9373824784130155, "baseline_score": 14.937249532719546, "spot_peer_score": 0.9529983455531902, "peer_archived_score": 9.337258228478115, "baseline_archived_score": 14.937249532719546, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9529983455531902 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658302568.62196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658302568.62196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6547134706232153, 0.3452865293767847 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brandy Bottone, 32, of Plano, TX, was pulled over on June 29 by a police officer looking for HOV lane violators. Texas HOV lane rules require more than one occupant to be in a vehicle. Bottone told officers that under Texas law, in the wake of Roe v. Wade being overturned, a fetus counts as a person and was therefore the second occupant of the vehicle under the law. \n\nBottone plans to fight the ticket, which carries a potential penalty of $215. The trial date is set for July 20, 2022. \n\nFor more background: [Local NBC News story](https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/pregnant-woman-cited-for-hov-violation-says-her-unborn-baby-should-count-as-second-person/3010193/)" }, { "id": 11810, "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?", "short_title": "Scotland leaves UK by 2030", "url_title": "Scotland leaves UK by 2030", "slug": "scotland-leaves-uk-by-2030", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-09T07:48:02.152919Z", "published_at": "2022-07-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:41:18.330268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-12T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 192, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11810, "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-07-09T07:48:02.152919Z", "open_time": "2022-07-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-14T17:02:26.374793Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-14T17:02:26.374793Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/)\n\n***\n\nA [referendum on Scottish independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.\n\nSince 2014, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU. However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [ 62% of Scottish voters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) opting for \"Remain.\" (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) The governing Conservative Party then chose the hardest possible Brexit, leaving the Single Market as well as the European Union. Scotland was therefore taken out of the EU against its will and can only realistically rejoin by declaring independence. \n\nThe Scottish National Party won half the seats in the Scottish parliament during the [2021 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election) even though Scotland has a proportional voting system. The SNP’s leader Nicola Sturgeon has now [written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to request a new referendum on independence](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510) with a proposed date of October 19, 2023. It is likely that a government response will be delayed by process of choosing a new Prime Minister now Johnson has resigned.", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before January 1, 2030.\n\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until January 1, 2030 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\n\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, **or** by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\n\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before January 1, 2030, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\n\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762908067.920606, "end_time": 1763979482.426281, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762908067.920606, "end_time": 1763979482.426281, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06271915502163286 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.644131669883807, 5.775443550200902, 2.955242289408683, 2.22360221125921, 0.8528861087985962, 0.5742298936990696, 0.060099572630004344, 0.3182211570756341, 0.04330450799383685, 0.0007652174038283743, 0.43858207809667016, 0.6512778357598388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1878205709375993, 0.9160570769542637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304487479044246, 0.007640119099098946, 0.035898868379937755, 0.012291524650576473, 0.0, 0.0025843989722927735, 0.0, 0.005616050028307305, 0.0169709031564585, 0.0, 0.0020457275242524264, 0.0, 0.0016852932296577644, 0.0, 9.819151260991988e-05, 3.93784722937276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4566648254815185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012222957050800648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0034774989107587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001258053411250551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290013.114621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290013.114621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9975274758260636, 0.0024725241739364506 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 555, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/)\n\n***\n\nA [referendum on Scottish independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.\n\nSince 2014, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU. However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [ 62% of Scottish voters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) opting for \"Remain.\" (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) The governing Conservative Party then chose the hardest possible Brexit, leaving the Single Market as well as the European Union. Scotland was therefore taken out of the EU against its will and can only realistically rejoin by declaring independence. \n\nThe Scottish National Party won half the seats in the Scottish parliament during the [2021 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election) even though Scotland has a proportional voting system. The SNP’s leader Nicola Sturgeon has now [written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to request a new referendum on independence](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510) with a proposed date of October 19, 2023. It is likely that a government response will be delayed by process of choosing a new Prime Minister now Johnson has resigned." }, { "id": 11667, "title": "Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?", "short_title": "East African Federation before 2030", "url_title": "East African Federation before 2030", "slug": "east-african-federation-before-2030", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-07-01T01:50:39.690829Z", "published_at": "2022-07-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T06:26:17.033029Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11667, "title": "Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-07-01T01:50:39.690829Z", "open_time": "2022-07-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-12T12:53:00.201851Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-12T12:53:00.201851Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:50:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T03:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/).", "resolution_criteria": "- To resolve as **Yes**, at least 3 of the 7 countries from the list must agree to peacefully merge into a single state.\n- An agreement must be formally ratified by the countries.\n- These countries are: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.", "fine_print": "If the newly resulting country chooses to adopt a name other than the \"East African Federation\", this question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as all other criteria are met.", "post_id": 11667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763205584.437997, "end_time": 1763698536.750602, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.022 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763205584.437997, "end_time": 1763698536.750602, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.022 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05816356480276581 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286787.687367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286787.687367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9869245430798431, 0.013075456920156863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 181, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/)." }, { "id": 11625, "title": "Before 2032, will at least $30 billion (2021 USD) in new funding be authorized via new legislation toward US pandemic preparedness?", "short_title": ">$30B New US Pandemic Preparedness Funding", "url_title": ">$30B New US Pandemic Preparedness Funding", "slug": "30b-new-us-pandemic-preparedness-funding", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-30T12:48:21.911587Z", "published_at": 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"forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:20:25.767046Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-18T19:48:18.894475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": 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"2022-06-30T12:48:21.911587Z", "open_time": "2022-07-01T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-31T16:28:26.630400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-31T16:28:26.630400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In September 2021, the US White House [released](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/03/fact-sheet-biden-administration-to-transform-capabilities-for-pandemic-preparedness/) a pandemic preparedness plan — [American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming our Capabilities](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf). The White House says that the aim is to \"lean forward and catalyze the advances in science, technology, and core capabilities required to protect the Nation against future and potentially catastrophic biological threats, whether naturally-occurring, accidental, or deliberate.\" The total cost of the plan is [$65.3 billion](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf), to be invested over 7 to 10 years. However, as of late 2021 there [does not appear](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22848508/covid-pandemic-testing-vaccines-manchin-build-back-better) to be enough support in Congress for authorization of the funding amount requested in the American Pandemic Preparedness plan. \n\nIn March 2022, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and [(PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. The PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen US pandemic preparedness, including via authorization of ~$1.9 billion in new spending\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if, within the next decade, at least $30B will be authorized toward US pandemic preparedness via new legislation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, at least $30.0 billion in new funding (i.e., above baseline levels) is authorized by the US Congress toward pandemic preparedness via new legislation. The funding can be authorized in one piece of legislation or over multiple pieces of legislation.\n\nFor this question, USD will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD.\n\nNote that this question asks about **authorization** of new funds, as opposed to appropriation. The [difference](https://indivisible.org/resource/legislative-process-101-authorization-vs-appropriation) is that authorization is a process \"done by Congress via legislation that can establish, continue, or modify an agency, program, or activity for a fixed or indefinite period of time\" while appropriations are \"done by Congress via legislation that authorizes agencies to make payments from the federal Treasury.\" In other words, authorizations occur through new legislation and make it so that money *can* be appropriated — and that money must then actually be appropriated for government agencies to spend it. This question just asks about authorization.\n\nAlso note that it **would count** if the funding authorization is rolled into legislation that is not primarily related to pandemic preparedness, for example a [renewed Build Back Better reconciliation attempt](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/06/27/manchin-schumer-build-back-better/). The focus of this question is on whether at least $30B in new funding will be authorized via any legislative process.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a **broad and inclusive view** will be taken with respect to what types of authorized funding would count as \"pandemic preparedness funding\" so long as the funding meaningfully relates to one of the following 12 areas of the [American Pandemic Preparedness plan](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf) (pages 20 and 21):\n>\n- Vaccines \n- Therapeutics\n- Diagnostics\n- Early warning \n- Real-time Monitoring\n- Strengthen the US Public Health System by Expanding Capabilities to Respond to Public Health Emergencies\n- Global Health Security Capacity to Support Pandemic Preparedness\n- Personal Protective Equipment\n- US Capacity to Produce Vital Supplies\n- Strengthen Biosafety and Biosecurity, and Reduce Catastrophic Biological Threats\n- Improve the Regulatory Environment\n- Manage the Missio", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11625, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736227428.274972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736227428.274972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5326414122153098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008217555155468027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028868249801690303, 0.0, 0.7193936421320899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23145522895797951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9480555605954547, 0.013931281558975482, 0.3671109046898133, 0.0, 0.0, 1.069808157066613, 0.0, 0.23303634704026993, 0.0010872227688318024, 0.0029988785395327496, 0.05238876206004258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8816851763408299, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.020476985370305, 0.011657452066409228, 0.0, 0.03197929551797068, 0.0, 0.1105208946958119, 0.47524506708418646, 1.3102564605317149, 0.0008782752490162315, 0.0, 0.08280320485427824, 0.44716216755394966, 1.0043171496047616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03640899832170227, 0.025039290336627308, 0.6108988194754099, 1.0819973458061196, 0.9961259718612523, 0.5110472494105709, 0.2802033737005907, 0.8218669109281093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2501649048741754, 0.08910285564825525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46413709472797576, 0.0, 0.5821968248175029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8347132297076236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007337775468663119, 0.09580740838405215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3114648820373475 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290278.18291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290278.18291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5733603684133239, 0.426639631586676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In September 2021, the US White House [released](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/03/fact-sheet-biden-administration-to-transform-capabilities-for-pandemic-preparedness/) a pandemic preparedness plan — [American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming our Capabilities](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf). The White House says that the aim is to \"lean forward and catalyze the advances in science, technology, and core capabilities required to protect the Nation against future and potentially catastrophic biological threats, whether naturally-occurring, accidental, or deliberate.\" The total cost of the plan is [$65.3 billion](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf), to be invested over 7 to 10 years. However, as of late 2021 there [does not appear](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22848508/covid-pandemic-testing-vaccines-manchin-build-back-better) to be enough support in Congress for authorization of the funding amount requested in the American Pandemic Preparedness plan. \n\nIn March 2022, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and [(PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. The PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen US pandemic preparedness, including via authorization of ~$1.9 billion in new spending\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if, within the next decade, at least $30B will be authorized toward US pandemic preparedness via new legislation." }, { "id": 11624, "title": "Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?", "short_title": "US Supreme Court Overturns Proposition 12", "url_title": "US Supreme Court Overturns Proposition 12", "slug": "us-supreme-court-overturns-proposition-12", "author_id": 117461, "author_username": "tylerjohnston", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-30T12:41:38.259531Z", "published_at": "2022-07-15T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.270092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-15T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-11T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-15T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11624, "title": "Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-06-30T12:41:38.259531Z", "open_time": "2022-07-15T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-17T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-17T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-11T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The Supreme Court is currently planning to hear a case, [National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/21-468.html), which will have massive near-term impacts on the welfare of farmed animals raised in the worst conditions. \n\n[Proposition 12](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_Proposition_12) was a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).\n\nThe [National Pork Producers Council](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-468/227679/20220610132221228_Natl%20Pork%20Producers%20v%20Ross%20No.%2021-468%20Brief%20for%20Petitioners.pdf) is hoping that the Supreme Court will find California's law in violation of the [Dormant Commerce Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_Commerce_Clause), while California is hoping that the court will consider banning caged farming a legitimate reason to burden interstate commerce and thus uphold their law.\n\n***Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross by the end of 2023?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court rules in National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross that California's Ballot Proposition 12 is unconstitutional. If SCOTUS delivers a mixed ruling that only part of Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, this question will resolve as **Yes** if that part is the more significant part, according to Metaculus' discretion. If SCOTUS remands the case to a lower court, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, and litigation for this case ends before 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11624, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683817642.7599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683817642.7599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.44444350760457857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9134389029481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.8293469180051988, 1.6845413673020295, 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"close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11610, "title": "When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?", "created_at": "2022-06-29T12:43:49.295461Z", "open_time": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11332/coalition-wins-australian-federal-election/)\n\n---\n\nIn the 2022 federal election, the Labor Opposition won 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing them to form government with a narrow majority. The Coalition Government lost 10 seats to Labor, 6 to independents and 2 to the Greens (reducing them to 58 seats). \n\nThe rise of \"community\" or \"teal\" independents has been a remarkable aspect of the 2022 election result, with the independents taking otherwise \"blue-ribbon\" (safe, long-standing) Liberal seats. While the narrow Labor majority means that in this case the independents have not had to decide which major party to support in government, in a future election they may hold the balance of power. \n\nLiberals has been debating whether the party should try to win back its lost \"blue-ribbon\" seats or pursue alternative election strategies by appealing to different groups ([The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/idea-the-liberals-can-win-traditional-alp-seats-is-nonsense/news-story/f15d12dcaa61337371b99e769c6a64e5), [The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/bragg-says-mistake-for-libs-not-to-retake-teal-seats/news-story/379432f092fb10d750e668c0ad8e872a), [The Monthly, limited free access](https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/july/george-megalogenis/future-liberal-party#mtr), [The Guardian, not paywalled](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/04/the-liberal-party-cannot-rebuild-until-it-rediscovers-its-reason-to-exist)) Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reportedly proposed a \"progressive Liberal\" movement could [run under a different brand](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reelect-pm-turns-out-some-werent-so-kean/news-story/21e6e4ab69ccb9f2f92bcbfbbb26c173) ([non-paywall version](https://www.6newsau.com/post/scott-morrison-suggests-setting-up-a-new-progressive-liberal-movement-as-the-coalition-partner))", "resolution_criteria": "When a Liberal or National is next sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the Liberals and Nationals have a majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nThis question will retroactively close 24 hours before the election day on which a Liberal or National government is next elected.\n\nIt is worth noting that there has also been discussion about whether the formal Coalition should split (it is comprised of several parties, in two party rooms: Liberal and National). However, for the purpose of this question it will still resolve **Yes** if members of the Liberal and National party rooms together comprise a majority.\n\nIf a Liberal or National government is not elected before January 1, 2032 this resolves as **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759403553.738286, "end_time": 1764664198.585438, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759403553.738286, "end_time": 1764664198.585438, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.6095469563559813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9615215026310633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7574628680128753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.8999502783252032, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.869899491128955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288022.149333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288022.149333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42665804155526244, 0.5733419584447376 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11332/coalition-wins-australian-federal-election/)\n\n---\n\nIn the 2022 federal election, the Labor Opposition won 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing them to form government with a narrow majority. The Coalition Government lost 10 seats to Labor, 6 to independents and 2 to the Greens (reducing them to 58 seats). \n\nThe rise of \"community\" or \"teal\" independents has been a remarkable aspect of the 2022 election result, with the independents taking otherwise \"blue-ribbon\" (safe, long-standing) Liberal seats. While the narrow Labor majority means that in this case the independents have not had to decide which major party to support in government, in a future election they may hold the balance of power. \n\nLiberals has been debating whether the party should try to win back its lost \"blue-ribbon\" seats or pursue alternative election strategies by appealing to different groups ([The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/idea-the-liberals-can-win-traditional-alp-seats-is-nonsense/news-story/f15d12dcaa61337371b99e769c6a64e5), [The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/bragg-says-mistake-for-libs-not-to-retake-teal-seats/news-story/379432f092fb10d750e668c0ad8e872a), [The Monthly, limited free access](https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/july/george-megalogenis/future-liberal-party#mtr), [The Guardian, not paywalled](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/04/the-liberal-party-cannot-rebuild-until-it-rediscovers-its-reason-to-exist)) Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reportedly proposed a \"progressive Liberal\" movement could [run under a different brand](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reelect-pm-turns-out-some-werent-so-kean/news-story/21e6e4ab69ccb9f2f92bcbfbbb26c173) ([non-paywall version](https://www.6newsau.com/post/scott-morrison-suggests-setting-up-a-new-progressive-liberal-movement-as-the-coalition-partner))" }, { "id": 11589, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?", "short_title": "Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?", "url_title": "Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?", "slug": "large-scale-conflict-within-russia-by-2030", "author_id": 120816, "author_username": "tryingToPredictFuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-25T16:56:12.627803Z", "published_at": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:59.710382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 200, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11589, "title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-25T16:56:12.627803Z", "open_time": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-29T07:46:30.865746Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-29T07:46:30.865746Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:\n\n* results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia\n* has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,\n* with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.\n\nSome examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the [Russian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War), the [First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) and [Second Chechen Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.", "fine_print": "In case there are several smaller deadly events (e.g. a series of terrorist attacks), and it's unclear if they should be counted together as one conflict, then we use the following additional criterion:\n\nthere should be a page on Wikipedia about the conflict.", "post_id": 11589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763564488.93837, "end_time": 1764621930.232014, "forecaster_count": 780, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763564488.93837, "end_time": 1764621930.232014, "forecaster_count": 780, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2360710390004882 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9592920773788909, 0.041402924941138584, 0.7545876288634191, 0.01796489688056063, 3.9708750578003115e-06, 0.24509113945258004, 0.2779463388576625, 0.28874387683245273, 0.8808838788269667, 0.7217061120228715, 4.101773805486417, 0.5505502145700198, 1.6183845472103733, 0.49064838477512696, 1.9670024218441173, 4.206707703215481, 1.7457830012030555, 1.2486718663572662, 1.6113622374721694, 1.160632808314476, 8.84918447911792, 0.3156889029490295, 1.21315381207268, 0.4450151007811107, 1.3058765711280729, 1.0811202638029358, 0.39285075239138884, 0.9985142271545995, 0.6638653932895845, 0.0, 2.5262649910763164, 0.6712450413860802, 0.850840122571541, 2.04624770313398, 0.4917496973109776, 0.6574914460590702, 0.1467345331908157, 0.15114717258373472, 0.16539783183573145, 0.00016358661038056636, 0.8093324879619246, 0.8355994377543209, 0.0, 0.28255082967017353, 9.288405309945133e-09, 0.06657601691598522, 0.0, 0.21660801261545407, 1.5559324737485658e-08, 0.41005318083308273, 1.4493659194156125, 0.0, 0.08438855235610297, 0.0, 2.6648253513853273e-09, 0.008379005647391727, 0.38846339561244364, 0.004463511061470025, 0.0, 0.7363874694355322, 0.472231010435449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7939957191546696e-05, 0.25242427682838203, 0.01348123628046723, 0.32207911218812185, 0.011668029538985327, 0.0, 0.000253132941788111, 2.2709880327041856e-06, 0.0, 0.05474918189277746, 0.0, 0.0, 6.949078118027477e-12, 2.471823366902881e-05, 0.6974114279040774, 0.0, 0.36690363077067184, 0.0, 0.0013957497073092255, 4.926296711888226e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8320391521392833e-09, 8.931778752120879e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.596881153247633e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01194521972471919 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287904.078673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 577, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287904.078673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 577, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8760063340837698, 0.12399366591623016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 54, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3568, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement." }, { "id": 11588, "title": "Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?", "short_title": "US National Abortion Ban before 2030?", "url_title": "US National Abortion Ban before 2030?", "slug": "us-national-abortion-ban-before-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-25T00:41:02.164811Z", "published_at": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T12:42:51.525421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1438, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11588, "title": "Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-25T00:41:02.164811Z", "open_time": "2022-06-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-29T11:30:39.885000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-29T11:30:39.885000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 24, 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States handed down [its opinion](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf) in the case of [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, holding that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion, and returning authority to regulate abortion to the people and their elected representatives.\n\nImmediately following the ruling, [several states banned abortion procedures](https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/24/what-states-have-abortion-trigger-laws), and it is considered likely that more states will follow in the weeks and months following the ruling. [Other states have acted to legally preserve and protect abortion rights.](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-governor-signs-legal-protections-abortion-providers-patients-2022-06-13/)\n\nAbortion is currently regulated by the states, with no federal or constitutional law mandating any level of abortion access nationwide. However, it has been suggested by some that in the future, abortion may be banned nationally. Democratic Party Senator Chris Murphy [predicts](https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1540358809641799681):\n\n>\"Let’s be 100% clear. If Republicans win control of the House, Senate and White House two years from now, they will pass a national abortion ban. And no matter where you live, no matter how pro-choice your state is, women and doctors will be locked up for practicing health care.\"\n\nHowever, former President Donald Trump does not appear minded to support a federal abortion ban, [telling Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-praises-supreme-court-decision-overturning-roe-v-wade) on June 24:\n\n>\"I think, in the end, this is something that will work out for everybody. This brings everything back to the states where it has always belonged.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2030, elective abortion of pregnancies prior to a gestational age of 16 weeks is formally banned nationwide in the US by either federal or constitutional law. Exceptions for abortions of pregnancies resulting from rape or incest, or abortions to protect the life or health (including physical and mental health) of the mother are not covered by this question; this question concerns elective abortions in which none of those circumstances apply.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763568864.882878, "end_time": 1764723163.082853, "forecaster_count": 459, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763568864.882878, "end_time": 1764723163.082853, "forecaster_count": 459, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1442746575719601 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.8547766558973118, 1.6776439937645993, 0.9904807167006098, 1.2456607519046745, 1.877912588366051, 7.564321861269904, 0.5806321199909328, 1.554300427628473, 1.6420947573663995, 1.3736979165176426, 4.277786162943467, 0.006417511380715467, 4.044453607166625, 0.8788063288099593, 0.08650585646793695, 1.474207117214114, 0.16060639392230786, 0.8497690209081468, 0.0024027001844670855, 0.01034311559956078, 0.9168447344847238, 0.4826771442149237, 0.0018694504269962217, 1.0750541368846784e-06, 0.053341359307564506, 0.5258563394721472, 0.3588733943105459, 0.00500606312734862, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0678728397863906, 3.6655579140245777e-09, 1.5737841731843188e-06, 0.19685356970661783, 0.0008789428181534876, 0.15074832043759934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10726164424723601, 3.401338072721396e-05, 3.2097391101031836e-06, 5.95656561086082e-06, 0.0, 0.00019696503407681028, 0.0009450806566370618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018081488031550783, 0.7213359475235792, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8379765886034566e-05, 0.0, 0.24723508416375595, 0.003494172691700482, 0.0014930146406656008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03475757569416118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0866467556493426, 0.013473337896346724, 0.0, 4.741609629042013e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.927927128439001e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7110941369367735e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 9.143066498574838e-05, 3.2516959329173715e-05, 0.0, 0.9769247985916945, 5.576739716425521e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06613889015826235, 0.0, 0.00023696728720981855, 0.1342841171133417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0420239449050916 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290031.075118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290031.075118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9976868439252082, 0.0023131560747917954 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2061, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 24, 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States handed down [its opinion](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf) in the case of [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, holding that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion, and returning authority to regulate abortion to the people and their elected representatives.\n\nImmediately following the ruling, [several states banned abortion procedures](https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/24/what-states-have-abortion-trigger-laws), and it is considered likely that more states will follow in the weeks and months following the ruling. [Other states have acted to legally preserve and protect abortion rights.](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-governor-signs-legal-protections-abortion-providers-patients-2022-06-13/)\n\nAbortion is currently regulated by the states, with no federal or constitutional law mandating any level of abortion access nationwide. However, it has been suggested by some that in the future, abortion may be banned nationally. Democratic Party Senator Chris Murphy [predicts](https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1540358809641799681):\n\n>\"Let’s be 100% clear. If Republicans win control of the House, Senate and White House two years from now, they will pass a national abortion ban. And no matter where you live, no matter how pro-choice your state is, women and doctors will be locked up for practicing health care.\"\n\nHowever, former President Donald Trump does not appear minded to support a federal abortion ban, [telling Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-praises-supreme-court-decision-overturning-roe-v-wade) on June 24:\n\n>\"I think, in the end, this is something that will work out for everybody. This brings everything back to the states where it has always belonged.\"" }, { "id": 11553, "title": "Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?", "short_title": "Doug Mastriano elected PA governor in 2022", "url_title": "Doug Mastriano elected PA governor in 2022", "slug": "doug-mastriano-elected-pa-governor-in-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-24T00:19:58.938877Z", "published_at": "2022-06-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.626489Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11553, "title": "Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-06-24T00:19:58.938877Z", "open_time": "2022-06-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-08T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-08T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Douglas Vincent Mastriano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Mastriano), born January 2, 1964, is an American politician from Pennsylvania. He is a retired colonel of the United States Army and is the state senator representing the 33rd district of Pennsylvania. He is the Republican Party's nominee in [the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election), and will face Democratic Party nominee [Josh Shapiro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Shapiro) in the election on November 8, 2022.\n\nSome have argued that Mastriano's election could potentially be consequential for the 2024 presidential election, as he has been characterised as believing that the 2020 election was 'stolen' from Trump both nationally and in Pennsylvania, and if elected, he would hold substantial power regarding election administration in Pennsylvania.\n\n[According to New York Magazine's Intelligencer](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/how-mastrianos-primary-victory-threatens-the-2024-election.html):\n\n>If Mastriano is elected governor, he will exercise near-total power over election administration in his state. The governor appoints the secretary of state, who is in charge of the election machinery. And Mastriano is already eyeing this role with bad intent, as the Washington Post reports:\n\n>“As far as cleaning up the election, I mean, I’m in a good position as governor,” he said in the April 23 appearance on [Steve] Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “I have a voting-reform-minded individual who’s been traveling the nation and knows voting reform extremely well. That individual has agreed to be my secretary of state.”\n\n>He added that he planned to decertify voting machines in several Pennsylvania counties, a power given under state law to the secretary of state. “It’s going to be a top issue for me,” he said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Doug Mastriano is officially certified as the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. 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He is a retired colonel of the United States Army and is the state senator representing the 33rd district of Pennsylvania. He is the Republican Party's nominee in [the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election), and will face Democratic Party nominee [Josh Shapiro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Shapiro) in the election on November 8, 2022.\n\nSome have argued that Mastriano's election could potentially be consequential for the 2024 presidential election, as he has been characterised as believing that the 2020 election was 'stolen' from Trump both nationally and in Pennsylvania, and if elected, he would hold substantial power regarding election administration in Pennsylvania.\n\n[According to New York Magazine's Intelligencer](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/how-mastrianos-primary-victory-threatens-the-2024-election.html):\n\n>If Mastriano is elected governor, he will exercise near-total power over election administration in his state. The governor appoints the secretary of state, who is in charge of the election machinery. And Mastriano is already eyeing this role with bad intent, as the Washington Post reports:\n\n>“As far as cleaning up the election, I mean, I’m in a good position as governor,” he said in the April 23 appearance on [Steve] Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. “I have a voting-reform-minded individual who’s been traveling the nation and knows voting reform extremely well. That individual has agreed to be my secretary of state.”\n\n>He added that he planned to decertify voting machines in several Pennsylvania counties, a power given under state law to the secretary of state. “It’s going to be a top issue for me,” he said." }, { "id": 11528, "title": "Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?", "short_title": "Costco Hot Dog Combo Price Hike before 2025", "url_title": "Costco Hot Dog Combo Price Hike before 2025", "slug": "costco-hot-dog-combo-price-hike-before-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-23T00:47:49.722800Z", "published_at": "2022-06-25T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.265338Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-25T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:05:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-25T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11528, "title": "Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-06-23T00:47:49.722800Z", "open_time": "2022-06-25T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:26:27.185589Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Costco Wholesale Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016. In 2021, Costco was ranked #10 on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.\n\nFor decades, Costco has offered for sale in the United States [a combo meal](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/12jIuKNWU8CzKJ0GRL_39A--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ2Nw--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-03/127c2480-9fb7-11ec-bfff-2a62f952c478) consisting of a \"1/4 lb plus\" hot dog and a 20 oz soda. Remarkably, [the price of this offering has not changed since 1985](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): it remains $1.50, despite substantial inflation over the last 40 years. As of May 2022, there were reportedly no plans to increase the price in the near future, despite [inflation surging to 40-year highs.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/us-inflation-rate-may-2022-four-decade-high)\n\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): \n\n>In a third-quarter earnings call, Senior Vice President Robert Nelson told investors that there were no current plans to increase the food court favorite price, despite \"online rumors.\"\n\n>...\n\n>\"We have no plans to take that hot dog above a buck fifty. End of story,\" Costco CEO Craig Jelinek told shareholders in January 2020.\n\nAnd according to [a 2018 article](https://www.425business.com/news/costco-ceo-craig-jelinek-on-shareholders-costco-com-and-hot-dogs/article_5ff4b632-1f75-5e98-b9ff-6e02d676668b.html), when current Costco president and CEO W. Craig Jelinek suggested to the company's founder that the $1.50 price was too low, founder James Sinegal replied:\n\n>\"If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2025, any Costco location in the continental United States (the contiguous 48 states + D.C.) increases the price of the 1/4 lb hot dog and 20 oz soda combo meal to greater than $1.50, or decreases either the weight of the hot dog or the volume of soda sold while maintaining the price of the combo at $1.50. This question will resolve only if the price increase / quantity decrease actually takes effect (an announcement of intent to change the deal does not qualify).\n\nIf the combo meal is discontinued entirely before 2025, without any price increase or weight/volume decrease, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11528, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654391.242519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654391.242519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04110683050812321 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.06584938240686, 2.155394564112732, 0.27589955758467516, 0.7383261241729959, 0.024371444057764292, 1.1338003636672502, 0.28754533455002174, 0.33365070948022085, 0.42727238099840303, 0.2012758288109699, 0.24210274777956353, 0.3513974339699635, 0.01268664546658037, 0.006015141743814965, 0.06990523855126174, 0.007469780871714936, 0.0801289262778922, 0.023044466250350698, 0.0, 0.1144057033036324, 0.2447283847788369, 0.09412787148930717, 0.032651633760032474, 0.0002961695974971192, 0.0, 0.07065515416602855, 0.0, 0.0017838137533669753, 0.0906236558195569, 0.0, 0.6220719776260033, 0.026545336784400485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12840939415679498, 0.031003592631474855, 0.0, 0.0018396247667550084, 0.0, 0.012738243747481087, 0.005502431181348858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011877509551784324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.712152087817123e-05, 0.002819064663379457, 0.0016426726963989808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011473164167071434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031187293670277734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.107924230345225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014206998334075537 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.302672235387, "peer_score": 22.32363266615876, "coverage": 0.999993365555216, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999993365555216, "spot_peer_score": 3.7056465426964618, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "baseline_archived_score": 80.302672235387, "peer_archived_score": 22.32363266615876, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.7056465426964618, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289806.8705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289806.8705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970225052502368, 0.0029774947497632014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 431, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Costco Wholesale Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016. In 2021, Costco was ranked #10 on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.\n\nFor decades, Costco has offered for sale in the United States [a combo meal](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/12jIuKNWU8CzKJ0GRL_39A--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ2Nw--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-03/127c2480-9fb7-11ec-bfff-2a62f952c478) consisting of a \"1/4 lb plus\" hot dog and a 20 oz soda. Remarkably, [the price of this offering has not changed since 1985](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): it remains $1.50, despite substantial inflation over the last 40 years. As of May 2022, there were reportedly no plans to increase the price in the near future, despite [inflation surging to 40-year highs.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/us-inflation-rate-may-2022-four-decade-high)\n\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): \n\n>In a third-quarter earnings call, Senior Vice President Robert Nelson told investors that there were no current plans to increase the food court favorite price, despite \"online rumors.\"\n\n>...\n\n>\"We have no plans to take that hot dog above a buck fifty. End of story,\" Costco CEO Craig Jelinek told shareholders in January 2020.\n\nAnd according to [a 2018 article](https://www.425business.com/news/costco-ceo-craig-jelinek-on-shareholders-costco-com-and-hot-dogs/article_5ff4b632-1f75-5e98-b9ff-6e02d676668b.html), when current Costco president and CEO W. Craig Jelinek suggested to the company's founder that the $1.50 price was too low, founder James Sinegal replied:\n\n>\"If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out.\"" }, { "id": 11496, "title": "Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?", "short_title": "FDA Authorizes At-home Rapid Test for Flu", "url_title": "FDA Authorizes At-home Rapid Test for Flu", "slug": "fda-authorizes-at-home-rapid-test-for-flu", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-22T13:50:22.279081Z", "published_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.289153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-24T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-24T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, 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"yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a [conservative approach](https://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it) to authorizing at-home over-the-counter rapid tests — that is, tests that can be acquired without a prescription and which can performed entirely at home in an unsupervised manner and within a short time span (usually, about 10-25 minutes). The Institute for Progress said the [following](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/) in January 2022 (at the peak of the Omicron wave) about the issue with FDA's conservative approach:\n\n> The United States doesn’t have enough rapid tests. The root cause of this shortage is that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) doesn’t have an appropriate framework for thinking about tradeoffs during an emergency ... Rapid tests provide a key example of where the FDA has treated clinical trial data as necessary when other data should be sufficient for authorization during a public health emergency. Despite the broad benefit to the public of having rapid tests widely available, their supposed individual inferiority to PCR has kept almost all of them off the market.\n\nAs of June 14, 2022, there are 20 at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for SARS-CoV-2 that [have been authorized by FDA](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/home-otc-covid-19-diagnostic-tests). However, to date there are no at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for influenza that have been authorized by FDA. A recent study on such a test found [encouraging results](https://publichealth.jmir.org/2022/2/e28268): \"sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of .... clinical settings ... deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza.\"\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for the US FDA to authorize an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza. Such a test may play a key role in helping to reduce transmission of seasonal influenza and, critically, can play an important role from the very start of any potential future flu pandemics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [US FDA](https://www.fda.gov/) authorizes an at-home over-the-counter rapid test against influenza at any point before January 1, 2025. Any kind of authorization, including emergency use authorization, will be sufficient for this question. \n\nSuch a test must meet the following requirements for this question:\n\n- be able to detect both influenzas A and B\n- at-home, meaning the entirety of the testing process (collecting of sample, performing the test, reading of result) can be done at home without need for supervision or for anything to be sent to a laboratory\n- over-the-counter, meaning a prescription is not needed\n- rapid, meaning it quickly tests for influenza and does not take longer than 30 minutes\n\nNo additional requirements (such as accuracy, cost, or supply) are necessary for resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11496, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678750063.271554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678750063.271554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7185807556831287 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.21373070951070156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4112622776098067, 0.10705656972743484, 0.0, 0.8127489250518151, 0.14540923080948767, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.10669430773056678, 0.053493066571363594, 0.3061620984667782, 0.0, 0.6248955330675053, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.0, 1.2307568048091215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11264589383926711, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.4943318574038929, 0.4658976858118918, 1.1952020909010228, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.5559803590087039, 0.0, 1.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0903686363628875 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.643590808320103, "coverage": 0.26629141965997283, "baseline_score": 10.927156350924028, "spot_peer_score": 33.05991271900335, "peer_archived_score": 6.643590808320103, "baseline_archived_score": 10.927156350924028, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.05991271900335 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677051883.439871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677051883.439871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5758319770605496, 0.4241680229394505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traditionally, the US FDA and other major medical/regulatory bodies in the US have taken a [conservative approach](https://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it) to authorizing at-home over-the-counter rapid tests — that is, tests that can be acquired without a prescription and which can performed entirely at home in an unsupervised manner and within a short time span (usually, about 10-25 minutes). The Institute for Progress said the [following](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/) in January 2022 (at the peak of the Omicron wave) about the issue with FDA's conservative approach:\n\n> The United States doesn’t have enough rapid tests. The root cause of this shortage is that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) doesn’t have an appropriate framework for thinking about tradeoffs during an emergency ... Rapid tests provide a key example of where the FDA has treated clinical trial data as necessary when other data should be sufficient for authorization during a public health emergency. Despite the broad benefit to the public of having rapid tests widely available, their supposed individual inferiority to PCR has kept almost all of them off the market.\n\nAs of June 14, 2022, there are 20 at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for SARS-CoV-2 that [have been authorized by FDA](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/home-otc-covid-19-diagnostic-tests). However, to date there are no at-home over-the-counter rapid tests for influenza that have been authorized by FDA. A recent study on such a test found [encouraging results](https://publichealth.jmir.org/2022/2/e28268): \"sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of .... clinical settings ... deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza.\"\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for the US FDA to authorize an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza. Such a test may play a key role in helping to reduce transmission of seasonal influenza and, critically, can play an important role from the very start of any potential future flu pandemics." }, { "id": 11493, "title": "Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?", "short_title": "Seattle's Approval Voting Initiative 2022", "url_title": "Seattle's Approval Voting Initiative 2022", "slug": "seattles-approval-voting-initiative-2022", "author_id": 103100, "author_username": "Orborde", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-22T07:27:00.450716Z", "published_at": "2022-06-24T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.334012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-24T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-06T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-06T08:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T18:00:00Z", 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"2022-11-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-06T08:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-06T08:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In November 2022, Seattle's general election will include a ballot initiative (Initiative 134)](https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/initiative-for-approval-voting-that-would-change-seattle-elections-is-headed-toward-november-ballot/) to switch several city elected positions to use [Approval Voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approval_voting) during their primaries.\n\nNow that Initiative 134 has enough signatures to get on the ballot, it could be passed by the City Council, or it could be passed by getting enough votes in the November election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the [King County elections website](https://kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/results/2022/202211.aspx), with the [Seattle ballot initiatives archives](https://www.seattle.gov/cityarchives/seattle-facts/ballot-initiatives) as a backup.\n\n- If Initiative 134 gets passed by the city council, this resolves YES.\n- If some similar/equivalent approval voting legislation passes, but Initiative 134 itself does not, this resolves NO.\n- If we reach the end of 2022 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"peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently, influenza vaccination necessitates making and administering new and updated flu vaccines each year. This process [involves](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm) having to predict which influenza strains will be predominant in the next flu season and including these strains in the vaccine formulation. \n\nThe effectiveness of the flu vaccine is usually [40-60%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm), though it can be much lower than this — for the 2021-2022 for example, the US CDC estimates effectiveness of just [16%](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7110a1.htm). This is [likely the result](https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20211217/this-years-flu-vaccine-major-mismatch) of a large antigenic mismatch between the strains in this season's vaccine and the strains in circulation.\n\nThere is intense interest in developing a universal flu vaccine. Such a vaccine [would target](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/August/A-Universal-Influenza-Vaccine-How-Close-Are-We) conserved regions of flu — this thus would negate the need for modification from year to year and would also likely result in higher effectiveness than that of the seasonal vaccines. Recently, a universal flu vaccine candidate emerged from a Phase I clinical trial with [encouraging results](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1118-7) and the National Institutes of Health has recently launched a Phase I trial of [another vaccine candidate](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-universal-influenza-vaccine-candidate).\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a universal vaccine against influenza type A , which is involved in most strains of the flu and historically have been the [only known cause](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm) of flu pandemics. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved universal influenza vaccine. The successful development of a universal flu vaccine would be a milestone in protecting the general population [against future flu pandemics](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4899887/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a universal influenza ([type A](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm)) vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, the vaccine must have demonstrated effectiveness of at least 75% against symptomatic influenza virus infection for a minimum of one year against all strains of influenza A — this is a widely recognized goal that was [defined by](https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/218/3/347/4904047?login=false) the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in 2018", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11482, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736115304.021737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736115304.021737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5513252249249466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05333771712948605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20874441441824726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5462041672729956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19756391753823033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037798961682738792, 0.0, 0.02529677777500878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0499899894718049, 0.0, 0.3427936387218967, 0.01188973027420671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570402548459918, 0.4368259485760523, 0.06458169168327496, 0.5613535973038154, 0.0, 1.0850530171468955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6593074914282053, 0.09343825930273661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09921381733987823, 0.7267016857434182, 0.0, 0.39444170962328534, 0.0, 0.006040225766337409, 0.10809271213446761, 0.0, 0.07099844511877583, 0.068763771344373, 0.37466666666590154, 1.0634239928983962, 0.08315467767782996, 0.7167717572592296, 0.0, 0.0, 2.119727339837969, 1.8722269262293405, 0.25931825211981235, 0.24317119613391974, 0.13307742008887585, 0.04380338345562161, 0.004274657043034791, 0.0, 0.3205598636954784, 0.00464848324284581, 0.7989652871514761, 1.2865039263419766, 0.01505059801104587, 1.3715628642823061, 0.03835464010273274, 0.7198057514250807, 0.003423546585154462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0262477738917342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002512034008108981, 0.176787586732564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018032236332332975, 0.0009727136011953004, 0.0, 0.03347459912769655, 0.05687902834787789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17680275113182392 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288229.649145, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288229.649145, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47817310321494466, 0.5218268967850553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 295, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently, influenza vaccination necessitates making and administering new and updated flu vaccines each year. This process [involves](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm) having to predict which influenza strains will be predominant in the next flu season and including these strains in the vaccine formulation. \n\nThe effectiveness of the flu vaccine is usually [40-60%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm), though it can be much lower than this — for the 2021-2022 for example, the US CDC estimates effectiveness of just [16%](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7110a1.htm). This is [likely the result](https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20211217/this-years-flu-vaccine-major-mismatch) of a large antigenic mismatch between the strains in this season's vaccine and the strains in circulation.\n\nThere is intense interest in developing a universal flu vaccine. Such a vaccine [would target](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/August/A-Universal-Influenza-Vaccine-How-Close-Are-We) conserved regions of flu — this thus would negate the need for modification from year to year and would also likely result in higher effectiveness than that of the seasonal vaccines. Recently, a universal flu vaccine candidate emerged from a Phase I clinical trial with [encouraging results](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1118-7) and the National Institutes of Health has recently launched a Phase I trial of [another vaccine candidate](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-universal-influenza-vaccine-candidate).\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a universal vaccine against influenza type A , which is involved in most strains of the flu and historically have been the [only known cause](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm) of flu pandemics. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved universal influenza vaccine. The successful development of a universal flu vaccine would be a milestone in protecting the general population [against future flu pandemics](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4899887/)." }, { "id": 11437, "title": "Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?", "short_title": "HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032?", "url_title": "HIV Vaccine Approved Before 2032?", "slug": "hiv-vaccine-approved-before-2032", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-21T15:34:15.643256Z", "published_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.894539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date there is no vaccine to protect against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of all diseases for which there vaccine development has been attempted HIV/AIDS is perhaps the [most difficult target](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2572109/). This is in large part due to: HIV having very high rate of mutation and recombination during viral replication, the lack of good correlates of immune protection, and there not being a small animal model for testing. Two large HIV vaccine trials recently failed — a vaccine candidate in Phase 2b/3 testing [failed in 2020](https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/experimental-hiv-vaccine-regimen-ineffective-preventing-hiv) and another vaccine candidate in Phase 2b [failed in 2021](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-and-global-partners-announce-results-from-phase-2b-imbokodo-hiv-vaccine-clinical-trial-in-young-women-in-sub-saharan-africa). \n\nOne potentially promising development is continued progress in understanding of and elicitation of [broadly neutralizing antibodies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7040474/). Another promising recent development is the use of the mRNA vaccine platform for new vaccine candidates, with the National Institutes of Health recently having [launched a Phase I study](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-three-mrna-hiv-vaccines) of 3 mRNA vaccine candidates.\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a vaccine against HIV-1, which [when compared to HIV-2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23444290/) is the more virulent and more infectious type of HIV and the cause of the vast majority of HIV infections worldwide\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved HIV-1 vaccine. HIV/AIDS is estimated to kill [over half a million people](https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet) every year, according to UNAIDS. The successful development of a HIV vaccine is also an important marker for general progress in vaccinology, given the difficulties encountered thus far in developing a vaccine against HIV.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a HIV-1 vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735751569.719809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735751569.719809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7065195872809695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04990090804248555, 0.025257720763186456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015996228280379773, 0.11739256119426127, 0.10302685373341651, 0.0, 0.002462039636607183, 0.0, 0.8957137746948104, 1.3901266979967146, 0.0, 0.03407592382697639, 0.0001392885596652325, 0.0, 0.015038319156789262, 0.0, 0.0008109081164509634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028836536809590945, 0.012940216252768841, 3.677498438670577e-05, 0.008340768555982913, 0.0, 0.26998404422036665, 0.0, 0.003222685057915258, 1.3332517413289469e-05, 8.998249670201156e-05, 0.00035970306560069356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020786080511261623, 0.0, 0.08180686935149975, 0.013650722729584924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008821861108594614, 0.0009459912243932469, 2.7193932728159274e-05, 0.00035445732010386385, 1.2837017998937648, 0.0, 0.07762653482251801, 0.1987350245705495, 0.15949219078536744, 0.015399127891984613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004643860575110063, 0.4714480572590626, 0.0, 0.002809411267387552, 0.17737051831134762, 0.6166331104797411, 0.1085047212425045, 0.0, 0.344633371518277, 0.02142660487527717, 0.0, 0.004893765760770159, 0.047574648488075, 0.7678942616658646, 1.6973264287871197, 0.005210026852894156, 0.028007319484293736, 0.804241772824498, 0.015331617351450328, 2.302699552492435, 0.7281873333054663, 0.6125184195707192, 0.1279912396660501, 0.0, 3.6530166329519163, 0.09865115959384947, 0.2602880633692, 0.0, 1.022484672906621, 1.8554408085518959, 1.0545951689393602, 0.23994498351771112, 0.011617416622903743, 0.5092611489784347, 0.3650067115724004, 0.0017885946077804617, 0.25737429968437653, 0.09431775432039491, 0.0, 0.03245685645569209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7252394410064213 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287840.729755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287840.729755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3704785521031374, 0.6295214478968626 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 450, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date there is no vaccine to protect against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of all diseases for which there vaccine development has been attempted HIV/AIDS is perhaps the [most difficult target](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2572109/). This is in large part due to: HIV having very high rate of mutation and recombination during viral replication, the lack of good correlates of immune protection, and there not being a small animal model for testing. Two large HIV vaccine trials recently failed — a vaccine candidate in Phase 2b/3 testing [failed in 2020](https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/experimental-hiv-vaccine-regimen-ineffective-preventing-hiv) and another vaccine candidate in Phase 2b [failed in 2021](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-and-global-partners-announce-results-from-phase-2b-imbokodo-hiv-vaccine-clinical-trial-in-young-women-in-sub-saharan-africa). \n\nOne potentially promising development is continued progress in understanding of and elicitation of [broadly neutralizing antibodies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7040474/). Another promising recent development is the use of the mRNA vaccine platform for new vaccine candidates, with the National Institutes of Health recently having [launched a Phase I study](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-three-mrna-hiv-vaccines) of 3 mRNA vaccine candidates.\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a vaccine against HIV-1, which [when compared to HIV-2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23444290/) is the more virulent and more infectious type of HIV and the cause of the vast majority of HIV infections worldwide\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved HIV-1 vaccine. HIV/AIDS is estimated to kill [over half a million people](https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet) every year, according to UNAIDS. The successful development of a HIV vaccine is also an important marker for general progress in vaccinology, given the difficulties encountered thus far in developing a vaccine against HIV." }, { "id": 11436, "title": "Before 2032, will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?", "short_title": "Intranasal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Authorized", "url_title": "Intranasal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Authorized", "slug": "intranasal-sars-cov-2-vaccine-authorized", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-21T13:02:45.746937Z", "published_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.195921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-23T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T10:00:00Z", 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"2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All currently licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are administered via an intramuscular injection. There is currently interest in another approach: [intranasal vaccination](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext), which is usually given as a spray into the nose. It is thought that this will elicit a better immune response in the mucus membranes of the nose, mouth, and throat — which is where SARS-CoV-2 infections normally begin — and thus might work better at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other potential advantages of the intranasal approach is that it is [needle-free](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg9857) and would [not require](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-nasal-covid-19-vaccines-can-help-prepare-for-infection-where-it-starts) specialized training to administer.\n\nAs of November 2021, there are [12](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext#tbl0002) SARS-CoV-2 intranasal vaccine candidates in clinical trials. Intranasal vaccines exist for other viruses, most notably [flu](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/flulive.html ).\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for an intranasal vaccine being authorized for the purposes of both addressing COVID-19 and advancing the general state of intranasal vaccine development.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a SARS-CoV-2 intranasal vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11436, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736381325.465049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736381325.465049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9033538324603654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04730246698645611, 0.0, 0.03269403092024564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1996833640391919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016946282303830797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9568821714087345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21044185291752718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027001847235574035, 0.0007211156250063908, 0.0, 0.001271699693724388, 0.00037308097286065117, 0.0, 0.25019924821662215, 0.01383584245247427, 0.0, 0.0001645879663998067, 0.00010926343965683243, 0.005443535849635145, 0.0, 0.004711180847754763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17122396746404153, 0.03878047847850827, 0.02645818200776498, 0.006517519819049148, 0.028794611337204092, 0.25258983356033105, 0.163093872570408, 0.04150542037392531, 0.08461681491281751, 0.030146302517937706, 0.017101190192861486, 0.013627908030606622, 0.37502862995885433, 0.7032418574639538, 0.05444979910432328, 2.2847913556627746, 0.0, 0.05062748091254904, 0.14604571942550973, 0.9636467217902284, 5.075681835790801, 1.9192371589650312, 0.44104667361260624, 1.8943221010344318, 4.668959386739181 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289040.279822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289040.279822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11144456138448078, 0.8885554386155192 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All currently licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are administered via an intramuscular injection. There is currently interest in another approach: [intranasal vaccination](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext), which is usually given as a spray into the nose. It is thought that this will elicit a better immune response in the mucus membranes of the nose, mouth, and throat — which is where SARS-CoV-2 infections normally begin — and thus might work better at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other potential advantages of the intranasal approach is that it is [needle-free](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg9857) and would [not require](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-nasal-covid-19-vaccines-can-help-prepare-for-infection-where-it-starts) specialized training to administer.\n\nAs of November 2021, there are [12](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext#tbl0002) SARS-CoV-2 intranasal vaccine candidates in clinical trials. Intranasal vaccines exist for other viruses, most notably [flu](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/flulive.html ).\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for an intranasal vaccine being authorized for the purposes of both addressing COVID-19 and advancing the general state of intranasal vaccine development." }, { "id": 11434, "title": "Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?", "short_title": "Texas Vote for Seccession 2024", "url_title": "Texas Vote for Seccession 2024", "slug": "texas-vote-for-seccession-2024", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-21T02:17:46.475671Z", "published_at": "2022-06-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.001169Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11434, "title": "Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-06-21T02:17:46.475671Z", "open_time": "2022-06-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-23T23:42:37.874690Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-23T23:42:37.874690Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/texas-secede-us-2023-gop-pushes-referendum-1717254),\n\n> Texas Republicans are pushing for a referendum to decide whether the state should secede from the U.S.\n\n> The demand for Texans to be allowed to vote on the issue in 2023 was one of many measures adopted in the Texas GOP's party platform following last week's state convention in Houston.\n\n> Under a section titled \"State Sovereignty,\" the platform states: \"Pursuant to Article 1, Section 1, of the Texas Constitution, the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government. Therefore, federally mandated legislation that infringes upon the 10th Amendment rights of Texas should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if BOTH of the following become true before January 1 2024,\n\n1. The state of Texas holds an official referendum on whether to secede from the United States. An official referendum is one that is administered by state officials, with approval from the Texas Secretary of State, regardless of whether courts have determined that the referendum is illegal.\n\n2. The referendum passes with plurality support.\n\nCrucially, the federal government of the United States need not recognize the validity of the referendum for this question to resolve as **Yes**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075937.608252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075937.608252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004154941399711003 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.389985060492384, 2.6375015530661665, 0.0, 0.11487792521671582, 0.005226339774603747, 0.35246712253954127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004025228728279274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09986770401719344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.849383409941822, "coverage": 0.9998061620745767, "baseline_score": 98.95104711068669, "spot_peer_score": 0.9843089569632327, "peer_archived_score": 1.849383409941822, "baseline_archived_score": 98.95104711068669, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9843089569632327 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008181.354349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008181.354349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 232, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/texas-secede-us-2023-gop-pushes-referendum-1717254),\n\n> Texas Republicans are pushing for a referendum to decide whether the state should secede from the U.S.\n\n> The demand for Texans to be allowed to vote on the issue in 2023 was one of many measures adopted in the Texas GOP's party platform following last week's state convention in Houston.\n\n> Under a section titled \"State Sovereignty,\" the platform states: \"Pursuant to Article 1, Section 1, of the Texas Constitution, the federal government has impaired our right of local self-government. Therefore, federally mandated legislation that infringes upon the 10th Amendment rights of Texas should be ignored, opposed, refused, and nullified." } ] }
