Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4120
{ "count": 6388, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4100", "results": [ { "id": 11275, "title": "Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?", "short_title": "Establishment of BWC S&T Review Process", "url_title": "Establishment of BWC S&T Review Process", "slug": "establishment-of-bwc-st-review-process", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:52:34.468915Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.544029Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32675, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament Short-Term", "slug": "bio-short-term", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl_VUK8LKq.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:19:54.301472Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-18T19:44:53.661589Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11275, "title": "Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:52:34.468915Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-27T11:28:07.604400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-27T11:28:07.604400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-25T16:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nIn accordance with the need to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention,\" some BWC member states have proposed that there be established processes to systematically review developments in science and technology (S&T) under the convention. According to a [UN study](https://unidir.org/exploring-science-and-tech) on the issue:\n> To address changes in biology and biotechnology, BWC States Parties have established processes to review developments in science and technology, including annual expert meetings on this topic. However, shortcomings are evident in the current approaches and many BWC States Parties have expressed support for a more systematic review of science and technology under the Convention. This support is further reflected in the results of a voluntary UNIDIR survey of all BWC States Parties in which 39 of the 42 respondents indicated support for a mechanism to systematically review science and technology of relevance to the BWC.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether processes to review developments in S&T will be agreed upon and will occur under the purview of the BWC, given [political considerations](https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118232) and the fact that the decision would require unanimity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a decision is made at the Ninth Review Conference to begin and fund a dedicated and systematic S&T review process. This review process can take any form and the funding can be of any amount for this to resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673622588.98721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08716173911046302 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673622588.98721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08716173911046302 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.912838260889537, 0.08716173911046302 ], "means": [ 0.11095248622864345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.9052020366286646, 0.024887815310673432, 0.6360167605213906, 0.6873484555754474, 0.9277617477275573, 0.20926539955466936, 0.5429942209064903, 1.0641793574074891, 0.800591043524475, 0.6482781235855152, 0.7265606477267913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8629050061859964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5108110707299447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07100778434344111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17898260235952973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23047110224637765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.4641072095411631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.1019411890162417, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07263979413913657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015065545109154588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11472253092930257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5281972142647987, "coverage": 0.7528574738070903, "baseline_score": 19.987330310352498, "spot_peer_score": 8.249055059092148, "peer_archived_score": 0.5281972142647987, "baseline_archived_score": 19.987330310352498, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.249055059092148 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671954229.307018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671954229.307018, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8533878791254288, 0.14661212087457118 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a biological weapons disarmament treaty that has been in effect since 1975. The BWC [\"effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons\"](https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/). As of February 2022, [184 states](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/bwc) are party to the treaty.\n\nThere are BWC Review Conferences that take place every five years. According to the [BWC text](https://nuke.fas.org/control/bwc/text/bwc.htm), these reviews function to \"review the operation of the Convention\" and to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention.\" The next Review Conference, the [Ninth Review Conference](https://meetings.unoda.org/meeting/bwc-revcon-2022/), is scheduled to be held November 28 to December 16, 2022.\n\nIn accordance with the need to \"take into account any new scientific and technological developments relevant to the Convention,\" some BWC member states have proposed that there be established processes to systematically review developments in science and technology (S&T) under the convention. According to a [UN study](https://unidir.org/exploring-science-and-tech) on the issue:\n> To address changes in biology and biotechnology, BWC States Parties have established processes to review developments in science and technology, including annual expert meetings on this topic. However, shortcomings are evident in the current approaches and many BWC States Parties have expressed support for a more systematic review of science and technology under the Convention. This support is further reflected in the results of a voluntary UNIDIR survey of all BWC States Parties in which 39 of the 42 respondents indicated support for a mechanism to systematically review science and technology of relevance to the BWC.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether processes to review developments in S&T will be agreed upon and will occur under the purview of the BWC, given [political considerations](https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118232) and the fact that the decision would require unanimity." }, { "id": 11274, "title": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "short_title": "International Pandemic Treaty before 2025", "url_title": "International Pandemic Treaty before 2025", "slug": "international-pandemic-treaty-before-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:49:41.084574Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.048894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 177, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32675, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament Short-Term", "slug": "bio-short-term", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl_VUK8LKq.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:19:54.301472Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-18T19:44:53.661589Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11274, "title": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:49:41.084574Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:54:54.765300Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:\n>\nfoster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.\n\n[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:\n> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2024, at least 10 countries have ratified an new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness. This question concerns only new treaties, meaning treaties which have not been ratified by any nation as of June 1, 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11274, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681922.684639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681922.684639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.012205639918738157 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.955287866370604, 7.718376537687806, 0.6139450204767748, 0.14220104156072846, 0.05923255778336009, 0.7079763544316582, 0.10206005712392734, 0.004318102255904498, 0.0, 0.04772184305165941, 0.07110156982631921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015132569184820968, 0.050143472574200466, 0.05949754482391978, 0.0, 0.029688797471952542, 0.01920425995506348, 0.01773183108579235, 0.07028111115266598, 0.0011274670388619586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017849950062825047, 0.0006927605292204378, 0.0013155934347493542, 0.010474915293331402, 0.0, 0.013551602297970073, 0.010678101702508123, 0.0, 0.0013074161905578408, 0.005228389281653636, 0.049891282800510424, 0.0, 0.001042273766976228, 3.7509888805429235e-05, 5.1481853690146295e-05, 0.009879297575376613, 0.0, 0.0019533806642654406, 0.00461611585206648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002546796764886974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04098264540027054, 0.0, 0.0003709648157365384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027716267264796745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008880416123602895, 0.0005667538208868661, 0.00016348815720074343, 0.0035490634649055406, 0.00012996241416064855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002310540664937506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013584252464763576, 0.0031051058587668367, 0.00015978406825021435, 0.0, 0.0007534062565861126, 0.0006362276849863441, 2.632070549860035e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007661501690722872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026376706483028515 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.40568167374968, "peer_score": 18.64849198070752, "coverage": 0.9999834225975235, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999834225975235, "spot_peer_score": 3.3586780419784317, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": 28.40568167374968, "peer_archived_score": 18.64849198070752, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3586780419784317, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287267.407632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287267.407632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982874541054165, 0.001712545894583423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 525, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:\n>\nfoster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.\n\n[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:\n> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted." }, { "id": 11272, "title": "Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?", "short_title": "New Affordable High-Quality Mask by 2025", "url_title": "New Affordable High-Quality Mask by 2025", "slug": "new-affordable-high-quality-mask-by-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:37:50.545306Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.497801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", 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"actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T01:05:48.542556Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html). \n\nAccording to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:\n>\n- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention\n- Breathability\n- Leakage Ratio\n- Filter Efficiency\n\nOn June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the four winning mask designs (the top two winners/two runner-ups) is commercially available and costs less than $1 per unit on or before December 31, 2024. If the mask is reusable — for the purposes of this question, meaning it is expected to last for at least 1 month of daily usage — then it can cost up to $25 per unit. All prices in the resolution of this question will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD. The mask should be available for purchase on [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/), since it [dominates](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211102005144/en/92-of-Consumers-Are-More-Likely-to-Buy-Products-From-Amazon-According-to-Feedvisor%E2%80%99s-Consumer-Report) e-commerce.\n\n*13 July clarification: A sale where the price of the product is temporarily discounted would count for this question if such a sale lasts for at least 6 consecutive months at a price of less than $1 per unit (or $25 per unit for those reusable for at least a month of daily usage).\nAny possible limits on bulk purchases will not affect resolution of this question.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681892.828186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681892.828186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.03037638923412327 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.661501560948423, 8.278871258911705, 1.0491554192266923, 0.06891544511148867, 0.3532621302738868, 0.03526528581328529, 0.0849967912878919, 0.013645129948024675, 0.22792979498318455, 0.03754548630519887, 0.086409703844166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002692628379392516, 0.0, 0.025651637827824376, 0.012266936993781426, 0.0, 0.0014695861845243714, 0.000815761952041239, 0.00017988150358462166, 0.00042758420728445556, 0.0, 0.0043283820136688815, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.006271142213448926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006690951771438674, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014334921261558383, 0.006737946999085467, 2.527268378965002e-05, 0.00400881616642707, 0.0, 0.00016937841407304997, 0.0007434801602473479, 0.0, 0.0013403356747229503, 0.0020932275850234394, 0.0, 0.0008242633212889634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001006797793394728, 0.00031657617718394796, 0.0, 0.0002954483119157955, 0.0, 0.0, 7.11649413760666e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006006943600926201, 4.5399929762484854e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003794095329549017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022611909588838726, 0.0, 0.0005378859307019783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5261424379086769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001608850006039069 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.35648946824928, "peer_score": 14.555645524407678, "coverage": 0.9999851069530629, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999851069530629, "spot_peer_score": 21.89841460508415, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "baseline_archived_score": 53.35648946824928, "peer_archived_score": 14.555645524407678, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.89841460508415, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289681.400971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289681.400971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986934349403164, 0.001306565059683584 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 439, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html). \n\nAccording to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:\n>\n- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention\n- Breathability\n- Leakage Ratio\n- Filter Efficiency\n\nOn June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation." }, { "id": 11270, "title": "Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?", "short_title": "US Metagenomic Sequencing Program 2025", "url_title": "US Metagenomic Sequencing Program 2025", "slug": "us-metagenomic-sequencing-program-2025", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:24:54.044373Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.927820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:27:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { 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"score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11270, "title": "Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T18:24:54.044373Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-11T06:40:26.958000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:31:15.994248Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.\n\nAs additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:\n> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC is either sponsoring or supporting a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program that has at least 50 total sites in at least 10 different [counties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)s) at any time before December 31, 2024, according to credible media reports. At least one of the goals of such a program should be identification of novel pathogens. The program must be active on or before December 31, 2024, meaning that at least 50 sites across at least 10 counties are actively doing metagenomic sequencing on envrionmental samples or random clinical samples. \n\nAs an example of what form such a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program might take, consider the CDC's ongoing [COVID wastewater surveillance program](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance). This COVID-specific program involves state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments submitting testing data to CDC, and CDC then standardizing and interpreting the data. As of June 5, 2022, there are 748 sites with \"current data,\" and hundreds of US counties are represented.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11270, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735681865.312284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735681865.312284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0071727490700319325 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.412162113904591, 6.232155132642224, 0.4047166776388808, 0.0, 0.0678205359926875, 0.28762363903067545, 0.0, 0.015613202388387003, 0.004840008004697584, 0.03168859322101833, 0.024126046097964007, 0.06625375735816885, 0.015652368749958373, 0.008913553438225428, 0.01783564041309459, 0.00180366760721185, 0.004115173131407915, 0.0011362687857709507, 0.002687933346553275, 0.0, 0.003984458454283347, 0.0, 0.005757029118418765, 0.0, 0.002048449536482931, 0.003199102401852327, 0.0, 0.0025915647558893526, 0.0013936390897402622, 0.0, 0.00950138128040445, 0.0, 0.007136111048620068, 0.0066151131368295405, 0.0, 2.552539030890685e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018860854093961346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029999783870446567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037883038130711597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010876215109753838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007691549884751123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007340466619366882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009180477000688527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015887230715680867 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.4721911562537, "peer_score": 22.175026498728684, "coverage": 0.9999816905551124, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999816905551124, "spot_peer_score": 30.028645102165665, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 75.4721911562537, "peer_archived_score": 22.175026498728684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.028645102165665, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290027.643647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290027.643647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988758299697003, 0.0011241700302997404 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 373, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.\n\nAs additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:\n> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification." }, { "id": 11265, "title": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "short_title": "Verification Generally Available on Twitter", "url_title": "Verification Generally Available on Twitter", "slug": "verification-generally-available-on-twitter", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-07T12:22:54.131386Z", "published_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.398237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11265, "title": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-07T12:22:54.131386Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T14:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability standards, such as having a Wikipedia article associated with the account. Additionally, the account must follow the rules and have been used at least once in the previous 6 months. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nAuthentication methods are currently either providing a photo ID, linking to an official website that in turn links to the Twitter account in question, or providing an email address that is associated with a verified internet domain. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, all Twitter accounts are eligible for verification using at least one of the authentication methods mentioned above (photo ID, website or verified email address). \n\nFor the purposes of this question, Twitter may impose some requirements on verifying accounts, so long as they can be met by most genuine human users, such as requiring accounts to log in at least once in the past 6 months. Twitter may require payment of no more than $15 USD for permanent verification.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if verification is not generally offered at any point between June 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688198510.892071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688198510.892071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05250153837405735 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.433576195387911, 3.9690884057274842, 2.0936836771589293, 1.031929533156146, 1.8685354809062948, 1.1051855311744692, 0.1272504618501776, 0.14365698019710935, 0.46047069839411847, 0.6137828653668573, 0.665901420329891, 0.6246801731256432, 0.03366501317737027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1196825615901949, 0.0, 0.20460034727798201, 0.22946921943910759, 0.11243304737678526, 0.8013675741925765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03439046085820952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00386213551547624, 0.0007123431816616531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021411512623980965, 0.0182799076020529, 0.0, 0.06306205783609409, 9.640516625184967e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01686462977477851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030669760771614166, 0.015542326486976059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014587839364207648, 0.0058114146501116026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006000343579045155, 0.0031047725752661134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03207707257865166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005263543730988702, 0.0, 0.0003318316524916961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009697940661035138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041077660837210574, 0.0, 0.007044922433575599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017053798284846226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002468091549933519, 0.0841942795036022 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 32.32679914923847, "coverage": 0.9996206889893954, "baseline_score": 29.6793580950868, "spot_peer_score": 16.456286993991867, "peer_archived_score": 32.32679914923847, "baseline_archived_score": 29.6793580950868, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.456286993991867 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688198510.92715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688198510.92715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.998557882162717, 0.001442117837282987 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 435, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make personal ID authentication obligatory by July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11229/obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make verification generally available. To be eligible, an account must fulfill notability standards, such as having a Wikipedia article associated with the account. Additionally, the account must follow the rules and have been used at least once in the previous 6 months. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nAuthentication methods are currently either providing a photo ID, linking to an official website that in turn links to the Twitter account in question, or providing an email address that is associated with a verified internet domain. ([Source](https://help.twitter.com/en/managing-your-account/about-twitter-verified-accounts))\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans" }, { "id": 11229, "title": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Obligatory ID Authentication on Twitter", "url_title": "Obligatory ID Authentication on Twitter", "slug": "obligatory-id-authentication-on-twitter", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-06T10:28:22.176839Z", "published_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.478586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11229, "title": "Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-06T10:28:22.176839Z", "open_time": "2022-06-10T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-law-enforcement-support): \n\n> Twitter doesn’t require real name use, email verification, or identity authentication.\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if new Twitter accounts created on July 1, 2023 require personal ID authentication. So when setting up a new account a person is required to provide a document that is tied to themselves and identifies their name, for example a passport or driver's license or a credit card.\n\nIf personal ID authentication is not offered, or offered and not obligatory for the creation of new accounts, or obligatory at some time (but not on July 1, 2023), then this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "There might be exceptions, for example for corporate accounts, where Twitter chooses different verification methods than personal ID verification. This question is concerned with Twitter accounts that are used by a single person.", "post_id": 11229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688191074.061439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688191074.061439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02197463811541064 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.884295381650749, 7.176980552346322, 0.5976607901482095, 0.0, 1.3502852456460173, 0.09620722269387713, 0.7245394174266574, 0.07897971201875717, 0.09196331957188697, 0.21001020717018964, 0.022531492893703174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008970257685421864, 0.0, 0.013371869685048636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009794084302945889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.42137912002218264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008638428186252201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.075500155871836, "coverage": 0.9996225708352815, "baseline_score": 66.66611040417507, "spot_peer_score": -6.936982231298589, "peer_archived_score": 20.075500155871836, "baseline_archived_score": 66.66611040417507, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.936982231298589 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688197347.469108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688197347.469108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987101190965259, 0.001289880903474202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 293, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11265/verification-generally-available-on-twitter/)\n\n----\n\nCurrently, Twitter doesn't make ID authentication obligatory. [From their help center](https://help.twitter.com/en/rules-and-policies/twitter-law-enforcement-support): \n\n> Twitter doesn’t require real name use, email verification, or identity authentication.\n\nElon Musk [tweeted on April 21, 2022](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573)\n\n> If our twitter bid succeeds, we will defeat the spam bots or die trying!\n> And authenticate all real humans" }, { "id": 11216, "title": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "short_title": "Ron DeSantis president by 2029", "url_title": "Ron DeSantis president by 2029", "slug": "ron-desantis-president-by-2029", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-05T06:23:18.354682Z", "published_at": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T02:56:55.190175Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11216, "title": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "created_at": "2022-06-05T06:23:18.354682Z", "open_time": "2022-06-07T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T21:24:10.507877Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T21:24:10.507877Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ready-ron-pac-urges-desantis-run-president-2024),\n\n> A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former GOP Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. \n\n> DeSantis, running this year for a second term as Florida governor, has consistently led polls among Republican primary voters if Trump isn’t a contender. However, when Trump is included in the polling, DeSantis usually runs a distant second.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Ron DeSantis became US president (but not merely acting president) at any point before the end of the day on January 20th 2029 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11216, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763303358.989929, "end_time": 1763883021.786526, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763303358.989929, "end_time": 1763883021.786526, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01694676766504148 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.399364725671032, 6.086004760292346, 2.1073648513720364, 0.2766153583767386, 0.0833019987936874, 0.25380079370199266, 0.10163129394468307, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5729411059502744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.382048928789746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003791730644058239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009428103264429369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289159.111446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289159.111446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9966433173205903, 0.0033566826794096563 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 542, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ready-ron-pac-urges-desantis-run-president-2024),\n\n> A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former GOP Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. \n\n> DeSantis, running this year for a second term as Florida governor, has consistently led polls among Republican primary voters if Trump isn’t a contender. However, when Trump is included in the polling, DeSantis usually runs a distant second." }, { "id": 11206, "title": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "short_title": "Blake Masters Wins '22 AZ Senate Election", "url_title": "Blake Masters Wins '22 AZ Senate Election", "slug": "blake-masters-wins-22-az-senate-election", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-04T01:24:48.625782Z", "published_at": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.908953Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11206, "title": "Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?", "created_at": "2022-06-04T01:24:48.625782Z", "open_time": "2022-06-06T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-12T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Blake Gates Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)), born August 5, 1986, is an American attorney, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, author, president of the Thiel Foundation, and former COO of Thiel Capital. Masters co-wrote [Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_to_One) with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He is a candidate in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona)\n\nMasters will participate in [the Republican primary for this election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona#Republican_primary) on August 2, 2022. Masters has been [endorsed by former president Donald Trump.](https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3509966-trump-endorses-masters-in-arizona-senate-gop-primary/)\n\n[The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona) will take place on November 8, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Blake Masters is officially certified as the winner of the the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona. 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Masters co-wrote [Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_to_One) with Peter Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He is a candidate in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona)\n\nMasters will participate in [the Republican primary for this election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona#Republican_primary) on August 2, 2022. Masters has been [endorsed by former president Donald Trump.](https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3509966-trump-endorses-masters-in-arizona-senate-gop-primary/)\n\n[The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona) will take place on November 8, 2022." }, { "id": 11203, "title": "Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?", "short_title": "Nadal Grand Slams 2022", "url_title": "Nadal Grand Slams 2022", "slug": "nadal-grand-slams-2022", "author_id": 126809, "author_username": "geethepredictor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T18:19:42.328468Z", "published_at": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.096795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11203, "title": "Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-06-03T18:19:42.328468Z", "open_time": "2022-07-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-31T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-06T18:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After making it to the semifinals of the first three grand slam tournaments, Nadal now turns his attention to the US Open, the final grand slam of the tennis calendar year. Although Nadal is [18-0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Rafael_Nadal_tennis_season) in grand slams this year, he was forced to [withdraw from Wimbledon before his semifinal match](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/sport/rafael-nadal-wimbledon-withdraws-injury/index.html#:~:text=Rafael%20Nadal%20withdrew%20from%20Wimbledon,due%20to%20an%20abdominal%20injury.) , raising further questions about the 36 year old's ability to remain healthy and compete during the US Open. However, despite such concerns, Nadal will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win the event due to his recent success at the event coupled with the absence of Novak Djokovic.", "resolution_criteria": "If Nadal is able to advance to the semifinals of the tournament, the question will resolve as **Yes**. If he loses or withdraws before the semifinals for any reason, the question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662422092.474447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662422092.474447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.32382127778676517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.784826378994784, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.607495698368916, 0.43517894171176874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.04289084712097685, 0.12637014538023153, 0.02591031830222411, 1.9632899685834158, 0.19330086451826228, 0.16963114878242336, 0.07706906309393233, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27352346147739587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.20305441612328, "coverage": 0.9760376266527645, "baseline_score": -55.880086945917405, "spot_peer_score": 0.6803665753375753, "peer_archived_score": 15.20305441612328, "baseline_archived_score": -55.880086945917405, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6803665753375753 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662411525.567282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662411525.567282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44106821411805797, 0.558931785881942 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After making it to the semifinals of the first three grand slam tournaments, Nadal now turns his attention to the US Open, the final grand slam of the tennis calendar year. Although Nadal is [18-0](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Rafael_Nadal_tennis_season) in grand slams this year, he was forced to [withdraw from Wimbledon before his semifinal match](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/07/sport/rafael-nadal-wimbledon-withdraws-injury/index.html#:~:text=Rafael%20Nadal%20withdrew%20from%20Wimbledon,due%20to%20an%20abdominal%20injury.) , raising further questions about the 36 year old's ability to remain healthy and compete during the US Open. However, despite such concerns, Nadal will undoubtedly be one of the favorites to win the event due to his recent success at the event coupled with the absence of Novak Djokovic." }, { "id": 11199, "title": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "short_title": "Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030", "url_title": "Gary Marcus AGI bet 2030", "slug": "gary-marcus-agi-bet-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T02:39:38.587942Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T06:20:48.220685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 172, "html_metadata_json": { "title": "Will AI Prove Gary Marcus Wrong by 2030?", "description": "Can AI master cooking, coding, math proofs, and novel analysis—exceeding Marcus' benchmark predictions before 2030?" }, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11199, "title": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-03T02:39:38.587942Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T18:49:38.602430Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T18:49:38.602430Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.\n\nThey are,\n\n* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if more than two of the above listed questions on Metaculus resolve positively, and negatively otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11199, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762755637.604434, "end_time": 1764263202.413335, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762755637.604434, "end_time": 1764263202.413335, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8401034777388997 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5335407419782117, 5.736212445568014e-05, 0.0, 0.15677230163432815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9141108990921084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023594478014511954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001712103105135962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1262355131345771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07162320665892762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001615250781465044, 0.29215654234857613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30259965746661527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005132289007417348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0007846104635356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015186642282819212, 0.0016874979261166931, 0.0, 1.1430565125738767, 0.049346588646958456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4085650224764406, 0.311532162753768, 0.0033716555699897298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06849528099666263, 0.005626093850426509, 0.21509206644145962, 0.0, 0.11943837280706637, 1.2972635408654027, 0.0347825798776647, 0.008419408942318537, 0.010616069254090258, 0.0675384297648767, 1.2551800692038522, 0.49411172566314643, 4.4267247008496815, 1.6590257283372787, 5.882528033573041 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289044.379047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289044.379047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 164, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08150368846994205, 0.918496311530058 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 484, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.\n\nThey are,\n\n* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)" }, { "id": 11198, "title": "Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?", "short_title": "AI verification of math proofs by 2030", "url_title": "AI verification of math proofs by 2030", "slug": "ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-03T01:34:42.398944Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T17:14:03.106747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, 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null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": 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null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fifth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI capable of taking random proofs from any journal in the [top 15 English-language mathematics journals according to the Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) and converting them into code, such as [Lean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_(proof_assistant)) or [Coq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coq), suitable for formal verification by simply running the code with aid of an appropriate proof assistant in at least 90.0% of cases.\n\nThe AI must be capable enough such that, when provided a file corresponding to a published mathematics paper, it can read the paper and construct formal proofs corresponding to the proofs in the mathematics paper, in the way that a very competent mathematician would be able to do, if that mathematician was familiar with formal verification and proof assistants.\n\nIf the [Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) is discontinued before 2030, another reputable ranking of mathematics journals will take its place according to the best judgement of the Metaculus administrators, and will be used in the course of resolving this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763579332.154001, "end_time": 1763724123.726329, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763579332.154001, "end_time": 1763724123.726329, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.822772119225022 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.014701541710725019, 0.0, 0.00386213551547624, 0.0, 0.001305199350988809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01640441725647255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10099672870925656, 0.0, 0.03619814025345402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946921943910759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061550841457392744, 0.2167191769698805, 9.640516625184967e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1525366322021913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019363495263375722, 0.0, 0.16189602143981421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9551675360856144, 0.8629091829187906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051465640090887665, 0.0058114146501116026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10613187856395864, 0.004757793444040947, 0.005263543730988702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24287948634410458, 0.023139594814392546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011812550559193622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06739959090851837, 0.11271272680533528, 0.0, 0.036066683896196064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0429515795130018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08030157706702373, 0.0, 0.008482710965774019, 0.12720285746832813, 0.7064832190648435, 0.5003522738801707, 0.007736654199338615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5756890955574392, 0.010151878502634997, 0.0, 0.7811791531905958, 0.0, 2.057733181213208, 0.3037453394492086, 0.9363848494228015, 0.1272504618501776, 0.13523523779904154, 3.8526428675281563, 0.7536038507466154, 0.1196825615901949, 1.030367000092576, 2.35764508261058 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288590.060172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288590.060172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23323647466236708, 0.7667635253376329 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 414, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fifth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification." }, { "id": 11191, "title": "Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?", "short_title": "Invasion of Ukraine from the Northwest", "url_title": "Invasion of Ukraine from the Northwest", "slug": "invasion-of-ukraine-from-the-northwest", "author_id": 127385, "author_username": "CivilMarigold", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-02T16:18:07.621656Z", "published_at": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.861539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11191, "title": "Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-02T16:18:07.621656Z", "open_time": "2022-06-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-23T04:01:47.345643Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-23T04:01:47.345643Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "So far during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian troops have crossed the northern land border of Ukraine roughly from the central north and northeast. Starting from late March, Russia moved its forces further to the east.\n\nHowever, in the telegram channel [Беларускі Гаюн](https://t.me/Hajun_BY) there have been reports of military vehicle movement towards Brest in western Belarus, suggesting that a new front somewhere along the western border between Ukraine and Belarus is a possibility. The objective for such an invasion could be e.g. to interrupt the supply routes from Poland.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts, at any point between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672524538.896852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672524538.896852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018568959028776536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 15.950618010618797, 0.18151865870128317, 0.11024450140559625, 0.3139977725922227, 0.5622989307388729, 0.0, 0.2004510291350626, 0.0, 0.03341826197861836, 0.10552652478026833, 0.0615444155608672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002071361526079036, 0.031120859904868445, 0.0, 0.00720767036690427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028890667185141237, 0.00784546800835153, 0.01550759793289652, 0.0, 0.007060531117707437, 0.0038686338976175014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05561064916004925, 0.03803607965496475, 0.0, 0.012879116712703483, 0.0013022642992341074, 0.0050682898931823745, 0.004512021165447785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022331909023500837, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003539921380459027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02405118580334803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.74958404700879, "coverage": 0.9999099030096182, "baseline_score": 67.33470725024627, "spot_peer_score": 15.496198933177942, "peer_archived_score": 10.74958404700879, "baseline_archived_score": 67.33470725024627, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.496198933177942 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672524538.919091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672524538.919091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 288, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "So far during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian troops have crossed the northern land border of Ukraine roughly from the central north and northeast. Starting from late March, Russia moved its forces further to the east.\n\nHowever, in the telegram channel [Беларускі Гаюн](https://t.me/Hajun_BY) there have been reports of military vehicle movement towards Brest in western Belarus, suggesting that a new front somewhere along the western border between Ukraine and Belarus is a possibility. The objective for such an invasion could be e.g. to interrupt the supply routes from Poland." }, { "id": 11190, "title": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "short_title": "Conservative Party (PC) Majority in ON 2022", "url_title": "Conservative Party (PC) Majority in ON 2022", "slug": "conservative-party-pc-majority-in-on-2022", "author_id": 112326, "author_username": "thatMikeBishop", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-02T15:50:37.978041Z", "published_at": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.566863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-02T18:42:12.316434Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11190, "title": "Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?", "created_at": "2022-06-02T15:50:37.978041Z", "open_time": "2022-06-02T18:40:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-02T21:29:25.247228Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-02T21:29:25.247228Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-03T04:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-03T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polls close June 2, 2022. \n\nWill Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives maintain their majority in Ontario?\n\n[Party leaders' political fate at stake in Ontario's election.](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-party-leaders-fate-1.6473361)", "resolution_criteria": "Question resolve yes if [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics) reports PC has won a majority.", "fine_print": "If CBC reports \"Yes, PC has won a majority,\" but publishes something contradictory within 24 hours of the initial announcement, the more recent claim will be favoured. 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"open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:44:47.169482Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:44:47.169482Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fourth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI writing code that clearly indicates the capability to do either of the following:\n\n(1) Given a natural language description of a complex computer program comparable to the non-research related ideas found in [this list of programming projects](https://github.com/vicky002/1000_Projects), the AI is able to write a computer program that satisfies the description to a satisfactory degree in at least 90.0% of cases. A computer program is said to have satisfied the conditions of a natural language description if there is a consensus among Metaculus admins that the code satisfies the conditions, without any major bugs. Minor bugs, such as the code occasionally crashing, will not disqualify any AI, as these are common even for professional human programmers.\n\n(2) The AI is able to perform (1) when given the ability to interact with a non-expert user. A non-expert user is defined as someone who credibly reports _not_ being able to write code that satisfies the conditions of these project ideas, but who _is_ able to operate a computer well enough to understand whether a given computer program passes the requirements to a satisfactory degree.\n\nImportantly, as per Marcus' constraint, we will not allow the AI to simply glue together code from existing libraries. 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Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:58:44.235294Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-09T21:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance), commonly known as J.D. 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Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American conservative politician, commentator, and author, and former U.S. Marine, corporate lawyer, and venture capitalist. He is best known for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which attracted significant press attention during the 2016 election. \n\nVance is the Republican nominee in [the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio), having announced his candidacy to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Rob Portman on July 1, 2021. On May 3, 2022, he won [the Republican primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio#Republican_primary) and will face Democratic nominee [Tim Ryan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Ryan_(Ohio_politician)) in the November general election." }, { "id": 11179, "title": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "short_title": "AI as a competent cook before 2030", "url_title": "AI as a competent cook before 2030", "slug": "ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:19:03.384779Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T17:22:32.403034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 72, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 322, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11179, "title": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:19:03.384779Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' third prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending [Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark](https://www.fastcompany.com/1568187/wozniak-could-computer-make-cup-coffee))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1st 2030 the available evidence indicates that there exists a robot capable of cooking in at least three kitchen environments that it has not seen before during training, preparing at least twenty non-trivial dishes. Furthermore, the robot must not have a failure rate above 1% while cooking dishes. A \"failure\" is anything that prevents the robot from making the intended edible and familiar dish. The robot need not perform any specific task, as long as the available evidence strongly indicates that it would be capable of fulfilling the criteria. If no publicly-available information suggests that a robot fulfilling the criteria exists, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The dishes must be non-trivial and must have come from an ordinary cookbook, and in particular, they must combine at least three different ingredients, and involve some degree of food preparation more complex than placing the ingredients together onto a plate and microwaving them.\n\nTo satisfy these conditions, the robot must be capable of operating in ordinary kitchens that are familiar to humans. It will be allowed to learn the placement of items in the kitchen, and how to use them, before working, just as a human would need time to learn how to operate in a kitchen. However, it must not take the robot more than one week of runtime learning to figure out where things are and how to use them in the kitchen.\n\nThe speed of the robot must also be comparable to a real human cook, ensuring that the dishes are not served unintentionally cold or stale. More precisely, it must be able to prepare meals within 130% of the average time that a professional human cook would prepare the meals. If there is no data available on average human cook times for these meals -- which could, potentially, be revealed by the expected time to prepare as given in a cookbook -- Metaculites will do their best to consult professional human cooks and ask for their best judgement.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate robot met these criteria.", "post_id": 11179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763229324.076133, "end_time": 1764922492.734395, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763229324.076133, "end_time": 1764922492.734395, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.28199519679449675 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3677531475822765, 1.153200069476655, 0.433134023955045, 0.49671091365739484, 0.4885889942412601, 2.174671004941435, 0.046554900596496314, 0.4215380595910786, 1.255441629840197, 0.0, 1.800871898620731, 0.35387876809646834, 0.673891908610927, 0.0008185277565077584, 0.15569953526600863, 3.132179101647707, 0.9974521584261369, 0.5587366077186866, 0.04310296059001101, 0.8414823082906184, 1.2377702634538275, 9.229293835704023e-06, 0.131543442158063, 0.0, 0.053696600113667045, 1.0442673483572282, 1.0775823863218452, 0.05888700041113317, 0.008317633594219873, 0.0, 1.0082026761356022, 8.341534062515426e-05, 0.06880466608522758, 0.3475804563938185, 0.07787333705518876, 0.6088678637187341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02248752289312467, 0.0, 2.1307966468882684, 0.007449712640275029, 0.055136087106237505, 0.0, 0.8252582187115733, 0.26207996284535756, 0.0, 0.19998804967669453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04163317488642215, 0.0003927937977346349, 0.0007238312511532828, 0.0, 0.38619587684244683, 0.001402897524676466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9035998663397176, 0.0008184236237004963, 0.0, 0.05447653771560638, 0.0, 0.031154862961922457, 0.01591653548223195, 0.6158896729927188, 0.012246376930448624, 0.0, 0.03946283189780907, 0.5961016347007019, 0.0034945137749962697, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3827857252693447, 0.012674960359346924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.703615914105576e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003455867181378809, 0.005076353577679042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018880322610867223, 0.0, 0.0019402573033011192, 0.0, 0.0029772991679811634, 0.020566863232215144, 0.3608491811100277, 0.24967856422958615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5720591278817873 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289716.56159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289716.56159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.792769887009004, 0.207230112990996 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 873, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' third prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending [Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark](https://www.fastcompany.com/1568187/wozniak-could-computer-make-cup-coffee))" }, { "id": 11178, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on January 1, 2023", "url_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on January 1, 2023", "slug": "boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-january-1-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:18:09.181783Z", "published_at": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.030633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 341, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11178, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T06:18:09.181783Z", "open_time": "2022-06-04T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-06T04:15:17.943651Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-06T04:15:17.943651Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13127/next-uk-tory-leader-after-truss/)\n\n----\n\n[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\n\nAs of June 2022, [it is reported](https://www.itv.com/news/2022-05-31/how-many-tories-have-submitted-letters-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson) that many Conservative MPs have submitted letters to the 1922 Committee indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party. It has been [suggested](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-leadership-challenge-tory-mps-pm-resign-confidence-vote-1659563) that a leadership challenge is increasingly likely.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on January 1, 2023, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. 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It has been [suggested](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-leadership-challenge-tory-mps-pm-resign-confidence-vote-1659563) that a leadership challenge is increasingly likely." }, { "id": 11177, "title": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "short_title": "AI book comprehension before 2030", "url_title": "AI book comprehension before 2030", "slug": "ai-book-comprehension-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T01:34:53.990263Z", "published_at": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T10:11:52.561148Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 414, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11177, "title": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T01:34:53.990263Z", "open_time": "2022-06-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-08T23:19:07.075000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-08T23:19:07.075000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' second prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in [Rebooting AI](http://rebooting.ai/).\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [NarrativeQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07040) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> To encourage progress on deeper comprehension of language, we present a new dataset and set of tasks in which the reader must answer questions about stories by reading entire books or movie scripts. These tasks are designed so that successfully answering their questions requires understanding the underlying narrative rather than relying on shallow pattern matching or salience.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the NarrativeQA dataset when it is required to read the full books to answer the questions (as opposed to plot summaries or other spoilers). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep reading comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nThe human baseline Bleu-4 score for NarrativeQA was obtained by giving humans summaries of the books, and then asking them the same questions that are asked of the computer (which is not given any summary). The BLEU-4 score on the full-story setting was measured to be 19.65, according to table 6 in [the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.07040.pdf). The human-baseline Rouge-L score is 57.02, which is far better than some of the results achieved by Machine Learning models. For example, [Mou et al., 2021](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.03826.pdf) obtains a Rouge-L score of just 29.21 in the full-story setting. \n\nImportantly, any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these books during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these books). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified. \n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the novels were published. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. 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His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' second prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in [Rebooting AI](http://rebooting.ai/).\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [NarrativeQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07040) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> To encourage progress on deeper comprehension of language, we present a new dataset and set of tasks in which the reader must answer questions about stories by reading entire books or movie scripts. These tasks are designed so that successfully answering their questions requires understanding the underlying narrative rather than relying on shallow pattern matching or salience." }, { "id": 11175, "title": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "short_title": "AI movie comprehension before 2030", "url_title": "AI movie comprehension before 2030", "slug": "ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-06-01T00:20:31.156032Z", "published_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T02:50:39.270038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 279, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:09:25.380856Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11175, "title": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-06-01T00:20:31.156032Z", "open_time": "2022-06-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-05T21:42:08.758000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-05T21:42:08.758000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria. This question will be **annulled** in the event that, in the judgment of Metaculus, comparable tests have not been conducted on potentially qualifying AI systems during the specified timeframe.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11175, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762943362.905822, "end_time": 1763799632.965981, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762943362.905822, "end_time": 1763799632.965981, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9636977370967895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.042367199422719604, 0.0, 0.0, 6.76292139844949e-05, 0.03666838395755778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.541603300130762e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001661713582927679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.682826958067557e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.094969149497678e-06, 0.0003545659263789364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18542677460678295, 3.957278618099824e-05, 0.0, 0.0005428334655017966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006361654694244816, 0.0, 0.0, 8.620091016288902e-05, 0.0, 0.0030542511693238523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018383526344702085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005730891958215965, 0.0, 0.17045039848904595, 0.5480051968723171, 0.00013488948439349321, 0.008043736823729998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21905673141822277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030629303817468778, 0.13772167611749747, 0.0, 3.4146662122463236e-05, 0.0, 0.014918954516066429, 0.00035448966536976865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09287522545717761, 0.408569231690074, 0.16365545880591936, 0.6586885349476435, 0.0, 0.8975233830515761, 1.3999007054802108, 1.0113729986254547, 1.0927263206160247, 0.8399437962233136, 17.757769791238093 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287696.255736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287696.255736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 273, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.020601115531438174, 0.9793988844685618 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 700, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators." } ] }
