Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4140
{ "count": 6388, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4120", "results": [ { "id": 11164, "title": "Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?", "short_title": "25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031", "url_title": "25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031", "slug": "25m-killed-by-pandemic-2022-to-2031", "author_id": 127590, "author_username": "Wombat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-31T04:38:51.503584Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.355985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32676, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament Long-Term", "slug": "bio-long-term", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl_ZNPAenH.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:20:25.767046Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-18T19:48:18.894475Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1703, "type": "tournament", "name": "Biosecurity Tournament", "slug": "biosecurity-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/biosecurity_SdjkSKl.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:38:46.655168Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 11164, "title": "Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?", "created_at": "2022-05-31T04:38:51.503584Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-11T22:40:27.246000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-11T22:40:27.246000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 25 million people have died from an infectious pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2 and its descendants) from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2031, according to excess mortality figures compiled by what Metaculus judges to be the most credible of following sources:\n\n* The World Health Organisation (or its successor)\n\n* Credible media reports/models\n\n* Academic studies/models\n\nIf there are several reports/models judged credible by Metaculus admins, the resolution will be determined by the median of the reported deaths.\n\nVariants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, **do not count** — with no exceptions. However, novel pathogens that are the result of [antigenic shift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift) **do count.** Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently [only](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2017.0141) known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an [\"abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans\"](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm). Contrast this with [antigenic drift](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8669911/), which is the mechanism that produces variants for pathogens like SARS-CoV-2", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736535165.680995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736535165.680995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 299, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0969379751320062 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10068140974826195, 4.897945288579705, 2.0310497132726053, 5.501389086960076, 3.8072664905116826, 1.235219917840406, 1.338370421579666, 1.012733049123192, 0.06873251048380091, 0.8207228686965581, 3.5355763301404375, 0.7486359985565731, 1.4893279879727794, 0.00861472306139786, 0.00034965783492865385, 1.2381342904046257, 0.0011001752623413822, 0.5613706395460594, 0.23489067348479517, 0.0, 0.6914000825707944, 0.13608267477410124, 0.5894520799921296, 0.0, 0.8405815650864006, 0.8087280837069472, 0.0, 0.0011098526900971315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1791389633172824, 0.013682789650037563, 0.0, 0.003877981735338695, 0.0008304212642815728, 0.003154094366951716, 4.149025874859957e-06, 0.33114384878004555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.151167939833295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0680873660383523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2663625194100566, 0.00014978118560191836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035896065589321566, 9.049209642506627e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0371936784683246, 0.0, 0.06512826230230519, 0.0, 0.22049447794744223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016837933141600642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19300869254719596 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288379.43493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288379.43493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 288, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9860637660172848, 0.013936233982715198 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade." }, { "id": 11163, "title": "Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?", "short_title": "Maher votes for Republican President by 2042", "url_title": "Maher votes for Republican President by 2042", "slug": "maher-votes-for-republican-president-by-2042", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-30T22:13:04.826455Z", "published_at": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T01:19:09.915484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11163, "title": "Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?", "created_at": "2022-05-30T22:13:04.826455Z", "open_time": "2022-07-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher) is an American political commentator and the host of the talk show [Real Time with Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher). Maher has called himself a [liberal, libertarian, and progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher#Politics). Maher has traditionally supported Democrats. He is an atheist who has criticized Christianity and the Republican Party, called the Second Amendment \"bullshit\", supports legalized abortion, and supported Obama's health care reforms. He has been criticized from the left before for his [criticism of Islam](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vln9D81eO60) and his [support of Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rashida-tlaib-suggests-boycott-of-bill-mahers-show-for-hosts-position-on-israel). Recently, Maher [had a segment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg) in which he stated that the recent uptick in Americans who self-identify as LGBT, especially as transgender, is driven in part by social contagion, and discussed how a lawyer for the ACLU wanted to stop the circulation of Abigail Shirer's Irreversible Damage. For this some people have claimed that he is [not a liberal](https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/628fba3966d6b500218f5f34/bill-maher-anti-lgbtq-transgender-comments/) and have called for [boycotts](https://news.yahoo.com/bill-maher-gone-too-far-210951801.html) of his show. Maher has had [politicians, public intellectuals, and others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher_episodes) from all over the political spectrum on his show, and describes himself as an advocate of free speech. Recently, Maher had on [New York City mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat and former Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHrLx3jGH_c), and the two criticized the more hardline parts of the political left in the United States.\n\nIn a [recent appearance on Ben Shapiro's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvqUxYSRapo) Maher said that he has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past, specifically Bob Dole in 1996 and for John McCain in the 2000 Republican Primary (and says he may have voted for him in the general election had he won the nomination). He also says the following:\n\n>As long as the Republicans are a party who, in my view, does not take seriously the emergency of climate change, and I'm not sure if they even believe in American democracy anymore . . . as long as those two issues are what they are for Republicans, I don't think they're even save-able. Whereas, the Democrats, maybe I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but I think they still are save-able.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bill Maher publicly claims he has voted for a Republican for the Presidency for an election occurring after January 1, 2022, and before January 1, 2042. If by January 1, 2042 a reasonable search finds no evidence of such a statement, this question resolves as **No**. No proof of actual voting record is required, the question will resolve based on Maher's public statements only. If it is unclear whether a public statement by Maher qualifies admins may use their discretion or resolve this question as **Ambiguous**. \n\nWhether Maher ceases to make public statements before the question resolves is immaterial to this question, the question only depends on the existence of a qualifying public statement from Maher himself at the resolution date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11163, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762305539.394188, "end_time": 1764479791.682579, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762305539.394188, "end_time": 1764479791.682579, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4494074106039438 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6467707908417906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19461365146921333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 1.121956869971799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07676290664954911, 0.12637014538023153, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 1.1310189180754984, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9339806081280182, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8494739879470452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289171.330445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289171.330445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7227286171639496, 0.27727138283605035 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher) is an American political commentator and the host of the talk show [Real Time with Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher). Maher has called himself a [liberal, libertarian, and progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher#Politics). Maher has traditionally supported Democrats. He is an atheist who has criticized Christianity and the Republican Party, called the Second Amendment \"bullshit\", supports legalized abortion, and supported Obama's health care reforms. He has been criticized from the left before for his [criticism of Islam](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vln9D81eO60) and his [support of Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rashida-tlaib-suggests-boycott-of-bill-mahers-show-for-hosts-position-on-israel). Recently, Maher [had a segment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg) in which he stated that the recent uptick in Americans who self-identify as LGBT, especially as transgender, is driven in part by social contagion, and discussed how a lawyer for the ACLU wanted to stop the circulation of Abigail Shirer's Irreversible Damage. For this some people have claimed that he is [not a liberal](https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/628fba3966d6b500218f5f34/bill-maher-anti-lgbtq-transgender-comments/) and have called for [boycotts](https://news.yahoo.com/bill-maher-gone-too-far-210951801.html) of his show. Maher has had [politicians, public intellectuals, and others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher_episodes) from all over the political spectrum on his show, and describes himself as an advocate of free speech. Recently, Maher had on [New York City mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat and former Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHrLx3jGH_c), and the two criticized the more hardline parts of the political left in the United States.\n\nIn a [recent appearance on Ben Shapiro's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvqUxYSRapo) Maher said that he has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past, specifically Bob Dole in 1996 and for John McCain in the 2000 Republican Primary (and says he may have voted for him in the general election had he won the nomination). He also says the following:\n\n>As long as the Republicans are a party who, in my view, does not take seriously the emergency of climate change, and I'm not sure if they even believe in American democracy anymore . . . as long as those two issues are what they are for Republicans, I don't think they're even save-able. Whereas, the Democrats, maybe I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but I think they still are save-able." }, { "id": 11129, "title": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "short_title": "GOP POTUS 2025-2033", "url_title": "GOP POTUS 2025-2033", "slug": "gop-potus-2025-2033", "author_id": 127590, "author_username": "Wombat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-30T08:33:09.478726Z", "published_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:29:21.775323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11129, "title": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "created_at": "2022-05-30T08:33:09.478726Z", "open_time": "2022-06-15T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-16T21:32:15.041575Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-16T21:32:15.041575Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the U.S. the president is elected through the Electoral College to a four-year term.\n\nThe winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Their term will last until January 20, 2029, when the the winner of the 2028 presidential election will likely assume office until January 20, 2033.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the person / people who are the President of the United States during the entirety of the following two presidential terms (which are predicted to last between January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2033) is/are member/s of the Republican Party.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, if the elections / office are contested, the legitimate President of the United States will be the person the majority of the U.S. House of Representatives recognizes as the U.S. head of state.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, assume the powers of the presidency transfer instantaneously. So if a Republican President dies and their Republican VP takes over as U.S. head of state, the question would still resolve positively if it achieves all other resolution criteria.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if another party controls the presidency during either of the next two terms or a Republican president leaves the party / starts their own new party while in office.\n\nThe question will resolve ambiguous if presidential term lengths are increased or decreased by more than 10% of their standard length.", "post_id": 11129, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763137751.089458, "end_time": 1764163082.966191, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763137751.089458, "end_time": 1764163082.966191, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.47962156772242087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2011093313353233, 0.05569892840877877, 0.048688370194498024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4890846737037814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058848124918928366, 0.006021606162473711, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 1.911230703795876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21172986141757244, 0.0, 0.6725186810918307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05634097148935982, 4.0379161232406044, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7186942174176953, 0.20331358678375067, 0.1278411749500892, 0.0, 0.757750262606011, 0.5236803473695564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28203990864161294, 0.10545724016089074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6568720698690461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8863389171715127 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289141.570607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289141.570607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8447693932822299, 0.15523060671777014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the U.S. the president is elected through the Electoral College to a four-year term.\n\nThe winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Their term will last until January 20, 2029, when the the winner of the 2028 presidential election will likely assume office until January 20, 2033." }, { "id": 11128, "title": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "short_title": "Elizabeth Kim Wins NY-10 Democratic Primary", "url_title": "Elizabeth Kim Wins NY-10 Democratic Primary", "slug": "elizabeth-kim-wins-ny-10-democratic-primary", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-29T22:39:15.774986Z", "published_at": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.357343Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11128, "title": "Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-29T22:39:15.774986Z", "open_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-01T17:58:58.873854Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-01T17:58:58.873854Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-24T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-23T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Elizabeth_Kim_(New_York)),\n\n> Elizabeth Kim (Democratic Party) is running for election to the U.S. House to represent New York's 10th Congressional District. 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[...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?\n\nWang Wenbin replied,\n\n> China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say.", "resolution_criteria": "This question is conditioned on China launching an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US responding militarily to defend Taiwan against an invasion. In other words, this question will only resolve non-ambiguously if [this other Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-to-respond-if-taiwan-invaded-before-2035/) resolves positively, which is itself conditioned on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/).\n\nThis question resolves positively if, in direct retaliation to a United States attack on China, China attacks some part of the United States' internationally recognized territory within one year of the United States first attacking China. China is said to have attacked the United States if a member of the Politburo Standing Committee or the paramount leader of China approves an offensive physical attack on United States infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, _inside United States territory_, in direct retaliation to a US attack on China, and the attack is actually carried out. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate American nationals, will count.\n\nIn case there is a dispute over whether China indeed attacked the United States, veracity will be determined via a consensus of Western media outlets", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763534319.511402, "end_time": 1769450165.467264, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763534319.511402, "end_time": 1769450165.467264, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6229128789026256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5333919947611787, 0.1950908261268316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07884327545369835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48982832660575754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2872815719676155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6601493724222768, 1.7983709416714153, 0.0, 0.003645728271998152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09087694030755518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037134121186613326, 0.0, 0.18929597762773226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0781954269136268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04202795685693514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020075756256097286, 0.004896446781029056, 0.0, 1.5345464610311659, 5.556489332607938e-05, 0.04628473377272475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004777832583538874, 0.04841700148336805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0349953724262293, 0.0069616495762536085, 0.8224820673713276, 0.3289268187873915, 0.0, 2.682755773160245, 0.393264003479683, 0.00029623926919479965, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0449521602047023, 0.11022226742911256, 0.5891251342406795, 0.0024726848978668127, 0.6388464028169178, 0.8454874096754583, 0.14052883349705483, 0.25204123703864945, 0.1288109199441874, 0.23022982100291245, 0.8906752683429358, 0.0064974456061511875, 0.0232333312471299, 0.1564304356434259, 0.10050233249471513, 1.4359507078778995, 0.4684511644487425, 0.0, 0.0, 6.761387105445791e-05, 0.846087012254576, 0.0, 0.08203130230717862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30056606565889676, 0.0, 0.057712856738075344, 1.2679355233063443 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289225.582768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289225.582768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3275578810704367, 0.6724421189295633 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 415, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse [asked](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202205/t20220523_10691505.html),\n\n> President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried to take control of Taiwan. 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"open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over [30 countries](https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/hcra/univ_hlth_care.htm) have [universal healthcare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_health_care) in which all residents of a particular nation are assured access to medical treatment by their government. \n\nHealthcare in the United States is currently a combination of private, nonprofit, and government providers, resulting in a system in which on a per capita basis, [the US spends much more on healthcare than other developed countries](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2019/us-health-care-spending-highest-among-developed-countries).\n\nWhile President Joe Biden currently does not support [universal healthcare](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/biden-says-coronavirus-hasnt-changed-his-mind-on-single-payer.html), some progressive politicians such as Bernie Sanders have endorsed [single-payer coverage](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) and recent polling data has shown that [a majority of Americans say the federal government has a responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/29/increasing-share-of-americans-favor-a-single-government-program-to-provide-health-care-coverage/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the US federal government passes legislation that creates a universal public healthcare system that provides medical coverage for every US citizen in the territorial United States before January 1 2040.", "fine_print": "The legislation may also, but does not have, provide coverage for undocumented immigrants for this question to resolve positivity. \n\nThe US does not need to have a functioning public healthcare system by 2040 for this question to resolve positivity, just legislation to create this kind of system.", "post_id": 11124, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747310288.500926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747310288.500926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3430134505300259 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1624357494787606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5340916617403216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5021859182392427, 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access to medical treatment by their government. \n\nHealthcare in the United States is currently a combination of private, nonprofit, and government providers, resulting in a system in which on a per capita basis, [the US spends much more on healthcare than other developed countries](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2019/us-health-care-spending-highest-among-developed-countries).\n\nWhile President Joe Biden currently does not support [universal healthcare](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/biden-says-coronavirus-hasnt-changed-his-mind-on-single-payer.html), some progressive politicians such as Bernie Sanders have endorsed [single-payer coverage](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) and recent polling data has shown that [a majority of Americans say the federal government has a responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/29/increasing-share-of-americans-favor-a-single-government-program-to-provide-health-care-coverage/)." }, { "id": 11122, "title": "Will \"slaughterbots\" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?", "short_title": "50 killed by \"slaughterbots\" by 2035", "url_title": "50 killed by \"slaughterbots\" by 2035", "slug": "50-killed-by-slaughterbots-by-2035", "author_id": 127590, "author_username": "Wombat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-28T06:05:19.194064Z", "published_at": "2022-06-03T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T13:02:03.753731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-03T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-03T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, 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"question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T19:14:44.999593Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"Slaughterbots\" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.\n\nThe term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.\n\nWhile defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering [\"science fiction,\"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that [\"autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. \"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)\n\nMax Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)\n\n[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a credible media outlet reports at least 50 civilians have been killed by autonomous drones before January 1st 2035. The media coverage must conclude that the drones were not under complete human control during the attack(s).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a military conflict is defined as an armed conflict including one or more governments, which includes any of the following situations:\n\n1. Armed conflict between states or nations (international war).\n\n2. Armed conflict between factions within a state where at least 1 side represents the pre-existing government (civil war).\n\n3. Armed conflict between a state military and a militia / terrorist group.\n\nFatalities resulting from militia / terrorist group attack on politicians / civil servants should count towards the total death count. \n\nThe devices do not have to be airborne. Terrestrial / aquatic slaughterbots will count.\n\nPeople do not need to be killed in a single location / single attack. A cumulative death toll of 50 will resolves positively.", "post_id": 11122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763125313.407889, "end_time": 1765427759.591674, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763125313.407889, "end_time": 1765427759.591674, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7265055541595404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1853447244550839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031250959703169254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0545113339298824, 0.0, 0.04171983066671895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.674603970635904, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15635460880399535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.15207970849988256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11539832184643745, 0.29683892709897775, 0.0, 0.252509323486803, 0.0, 0.7364152443540697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27114422392158133, 0.5772963612505588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1413902496274135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4458049549941985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.038649493742268, 0.0, 1.5315586144021531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49680014682221674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7986028953533055, 0.0030815271309911525 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287883.854017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287883.854017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45112307499156523, 0.5488769250084348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"Slaughterbots\" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.\n\nThe term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.\n\nWhile defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering [\"science fiction,\"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that [\"autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. \"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)\n\nMax Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)\n\n[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)" }, { "id": 11120, "title": "Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?", "short_title": "Harvard releases ADOS/GAA stats before 2030?", "url_title": "Harvard releases ADOS/GAA stats before 2030?", "slug": "harvard-releases-adosgaa-stats-before-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-27T20:43:02.721587Z", "published_at": "2023-07-08T23:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T08:10:32.918500Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-08T23:36:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-08T23:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11120, "title": "Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-05-27T20:43:02.721587Z", "open_time": "2023-07-08T23:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-10T23:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-10T23:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The late 2010's saw the emergence of a new movement [called ADOS](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/reader-center/slavery-descendants-ados.html), or American Descendants of Slaves in the United States. [African-Americans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans) have lower average income and educational attainment than the American population at large, as well a higher crime rates. However, immigrants from the [Caribbean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Indian_Americans#Income) and especially from [Africa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States#Educational_attainment) have higher levels of educational attainment and income and lower crime rates compared to other Black Americans, with African immigrants being one of the most educated demographics in the United States. \n\nSince end of Jim Crow and the passage of the Civil Rights Act the mid-20th century, the United States has had a system of [affirmative action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) for Black Americans, including in elite education. Recently, some African-Americans have expressed concern that many beneficiaries of these were not descendants of slaves. As early as 2007, the Guardian [reported](https://www.theguardian.com/education/2007/may/29/internationaleducationnews.highereducation) that Black Americans of immigrant, chiefly Caribbean and African ancestry, were overrepresented at elite universities compared to other Black Americans. Also in the mid-2000s, [two Harvard professors](https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2007-03-20-0703200125-story.html) including African American Studies Professor Henry Louis Gates Junior claimed that 1/2-2/3 of Black [Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) students were of immigrant background and/or mixed race. Many African-American Harvard students identify themselves as [GAA](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/10/15/gaasa-scrut/), or Generational African-American, to distinguish themselves from people of more recent immigrant ancestry. Gates is quoted as saying “I don’t have the statistics and the University doesn’t release them, but a large percent of the Black students in the College are descendants of recent Africans as opposed to being descended from African-Americans who were enslaved in North America.\"\n\nAfrican immigrants have [higher fertility](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1454857509542535168) than the GAA/ADOS population and African immigrants have [continued to move to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States). Therefore, black immigrants account for an [ever-growing](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/04/09/a-rising-share-of-the-u-s-black-population-is-foreign-born/) share of the Black American population. America's only black president to date, [Barack Obama](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama), was born to a [Kenyan father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_Sr.) and a [White mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Dunham), and America's only black Vice President to date, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris), was born to a [Jamaican father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Harris) and an [Indian mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shyamala_Gopalan).\n\nRecently, Harvard's policies of racial preferences and affirmative action have received scrutiny, with the US Supreme Court recently [ruling](https://www.harvard.edu/admissionscase/2023/06/29/supreme-court-decision/) that Harvard's admissions system \"does not comply with the principles of the equal protection clause embodied in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. Furthermore, there has been a recent push for [reparations for slavery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reparations_for_slavery_in_the_United_States#2020) in the United States, which would necessitate disaggregation of descendants of people enslaved in the United States from other Black Americans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, Harvard University releases official data on the fraction of its undergraduate student body who are descendants of people enslaved in the United States or in the Western Hemisphere more broadly. Official statistics on the fraction of the student body whose families originate from Africa, or from Africa or the Caribbean, will also suffice for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761459604.095243, "end_time": 1766340208.731, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761459604.095243, "end_time": 1766340208.731, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18375940147062347 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287636.689319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287636.689319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9324842306787083, 0.06751576932129169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The late 2010's saw the emergence of a new movement [called ADOS](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/reader-center/slavery-descendants-ados.html), or American Descendants of Slaves in the United States. [African-Americans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans) have lower average income and educational attainment than the American population at large, as well a higher crime rates. However, immigrants from the [Caribbean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Indian_Americans#Income) and especially from [Africa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States#Educational_attainment) have higher levels of educational attainment and income and lower crime rates compared to other Black Americans, with African immigrants being one of the most educated demographics in the United States. \n\nSince end of Jim Crow and the passage of the Civil Rights Act the mid-20th century, the United States has had a system of [affirmative action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) for Black Americans, including in elite education. Recently, some African-Americans have expressed concern that many beneficiaries of these were not descendants of slaves. As early as 2007, the Guardian [reported](https://www.theguardian.com/education/2007/may/29/internationaleducationnews.highereducation) that Black Americans of immigrant, chiefly Caribbean and African ancestry, were overrepresented at elite universities compared to other Black Americans. Also in the mid-2000s, [two Harvard professors](https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2007-03-20-0703200125-story.html) including African American Studies Professor Henry Louis Gates Junior claimed that 1/2-2/3 of Black [Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) students were of immigrant background and/or mixed race. Many African-American Harvard students identify themselves as [GAA](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/10/15/gaasa-scrut/), or Generational African-American, to distinguish themselves from people of more recent immigrant ancestry. Gates is quoted as saying “I don’t have the statistics and the University doesn’t release them, but a large percent of the Black students in the College are descendants of recent Africans as opposed to being descended from African-Americans who were enslaved in North America.\"\n\nAfrican immigrants have [higher fertility](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1454857509542535168) than the GAA/ADOS population and African immigrants have [continued to move to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States). Therefore, black immigrants account for an [ever-growing](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/04/09/a-rising-share-of-the-u-s-black-population-is-foreign-born/) share of the Black American population. America's only black president to date, [Barack Obama](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama), was born to a [Kenyan father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_Sr.) and a [White mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Dunham), and America's only black Vice President to date, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris), was born to a [Jamaican father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Harris) and an [Indian mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shyamala_Gopalan).\n\nRecently, Harvard's policies of racial preferences and affirmative action have received scrutiny, with the US Supreme Court recently [ruling](https://www.harvard.edu/admissionscase/2023/06/29/supreme-court-decision/) that Harvard's admissions system \"does not comply with the principles of the equal protection clause embodied in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. Furthermore, there has been a recent push for [reparations for slavery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reparations_for_slavery_in_the_United_States#2020) in the United States, which would necessitate disaggregation of descendants of people enslaved in the United States from other Black Americans." }, { "id": 11112, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?", "short_title": "US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?", "url_title": "US Military Response to Invasion of Taiwan?", "slug": "us-military-response-to-invasion-of-taiwan", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:23:02.083008Z", "published_at": "2022-05-29T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T22:03:11.780400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-29T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-29T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1544, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T22:03:23.645655Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T22:03:23.645655Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11112, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?", "created_at": "2022-05-26T21:23:02.083008Z", "open_time": "2022-05-29T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-30T23:40:10.362000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-30T23:40:10.362000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html),\n\n> President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.\n\n> The White House quickly downplayed the comments, saying they don't reflect a change in US policy. It's the third time in recent months -- including during a CNN town hall in October -- that Biden has said the US would protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, only to have the White House walk back those remarks.\n\n> During a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Biden was asked if the US would be willing to go further to help Taiwan in the event of an invasion than it did with Ukraine.\n\n> \"You didn't want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?\" a reporter asked.\n\n> \"Yes,\" Biden replied. \"That's the commitment we made.\"", "resolution_criteria": "If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If China *does* invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/), China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:\n\n* The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\n\n* At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by a member of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff or the President. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763593575.760026, "end_time": 1769921347.510275, "forecaster_count": 1498, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763593575.760026, "end_time": 1769921347.510275, "forecaster_count": 1498, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5669779616936269 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3102923926984453, 2.1777490553583152e-13, 1.107828946779433e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 5.583312637653309e-06, 0.0055090071819983745, 8.45291716341687e-14, 3.0108939282839826e-11, 0.0, 0.35076966236968016, 0.011965449879293157, 1.5462297627338546e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4949270475804735, 4.3176464202988046e-07, 3.956726648791482e-05, 0.06978317257631196, 0.1115001887077478, 0.3765493442472479, 0.010490734889834317, 0.003435077365342903, 0.09753268187989196, 0.0033510292312815427, 0.9332284459318906, 4.1652613508634756e-08, 0.0023152564378289995, 0.0018634583352813907, 0.0, 2.6814241377725274, 0.13684786298622204, 0.0, 2.940920847850189, 0.1678906553809108, 1.575579925946796, 5.1794597969386925e-06, 0.00025938481790798275, 0.025425874048933556, 2.5496478291725265e-07, 5.369521196372918, 0.021961203493466575, 0.14518436826452308, 0.7910414824346612, 0.08318205471262885, 0.8903964245822001, 0.8199558730491014, 1.2347724863135411e-08, 0.041622229308500396, 1.3701105396072308, 9.064192415642273, 0.856129703652366, 1.1753006931576444, 0.4834889652807794, 0.7567043801254089, 2.393328894929158, 1.2137168154350104, 1.2077046038996769e-07, 0.0, 0.4608220301466645, 11.089392692473261, 0.35065886397092894, 0.2607831026089155, 0.018165906547758272, 0.023265795934183556, 1.5642807139457824, 0.10754088920051129, 0.595686344084088, 0.00033748181316838326, 0.1033934356569014, 11.551212307117918, 0.2747935606285085, 0.7033687239191236, 0.821509551688733, 0.007352721697268555, 3.0403982378683345, 0.06953929818275235, 0.6202115190625095, 0.008995358361391438, 0.00036545952621833675, 0.9103236093553063, 8.529504773473126e-06, 0.034134753657976385, 0.5503491619187976, 0.008354404482858332, 0.9636896167869626, 0.20107611032632572, 0.6776137515110978, 0.09875366324536582, 0.0008385894676879598, 1.5064629481513392, 0.0982634732692962, 1.4517548622122619e-05, 0.0, 0.00016870770087398294, 0.1806978995964626, 0.4392831386825792, 4.532034851577484e-08, 0.0945856931866475, 1.6846436317182676 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288287.050349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288287.050349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4327337206253963, 0.5672662793746037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html),\n\n> President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.\n\n> The White House quickly downplayed the comments, saying they don't reflect a change in US policy. It's the third time in recent months -- including during a CNN town hall in October -- that Biden has said the US would protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, only to have the White House walk back those remarks.\n\n> During a joint news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, Biden was asked if the US would be willing to go further to help Taiwan in the event of an invasion than it did with Ukraine.\n\n> \"You didn't want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?\" a reporter asked.\n\n> \"Yes,\" Biden replied. \"That's the commitment we made.\"" }, { "id": 11111, "title": "Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?", "short_title": "Governor Newsom Re-Election in 2022", "url_title": "Governor Newsom Re-Election in 2022", "slug": "governor-newsom-re-election-in-2022", "author_id": 116812, "author_username": "chipsie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-25T12:58:33.540678Z", "published_at": "2022-05-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.913755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:24:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11111, "title": "Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-25T12:58:33.540678Z", "open_time": "2022-05-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-30T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-29T10:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-29T10:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gavin Newsom was [elected governor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election) of California in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote. He was sworn in January 7th 2019. During his tenure as governor, there were several attempts to recall him, culminating in a [recall election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election) in 2021. Governor Newsom won the election with 61.88% of voters voting in favor of him to remain in office. In 2022 he is up for [reelection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_California_gubernatorial_election) again, this time as part of the standard election cycle.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California, is re-elected to the position during the 2022 California gubernatorial election. If he loses, or drops out before an election takes place, this question will resolve as **No**. If a gubernatorial election does not take place in California in 2022, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667864126.705802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667864126.705802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.960649146955072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00867947405568277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002405504347663601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30035487117422893, 0.0, 0.08541295277928176, 0.3783899666252789, 0.0, 0.28322519079520614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17433189661926568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5589792340554529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05551290601746709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15369479851735054, 0.0004895231162512076, 0.0, 0.07920690545446321, 0.0, 0.01161693045818606, 0.25397492224647666, 0.04444313535760009, 0.03797206003531877, 1.4086559866661843, 14.162755044224905 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.495670722818385, "coverage": 0.9997956000651035, "baseline_score": 90.962534717795, "spot_peer_score": 27.428297587441893, "peer_archived_score": 9.495670722818385, "baseline_archived_score": 90.962534717795, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.428297587441893 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667864126.726142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667864126.726142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012349936083489776, 0.9876500639165102 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gavin Newsom was [elected governor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_gubernatorial_election) of California in 2018 with 61.9% of the vote. He was sworn in January 7th 2019. During his tenure as governor, there were several attempts to recall him, culminating in a [recall election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election) in 2021. Governor Newsom won the election with 61.88% of voters voting in favor of him to remain in office. In 2022 he is up for [reelection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_California_gubernatorial_election) again, this time as part of the standard election cycle." }, { "id": 11109, "title": "Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?", "short_title": "Frydenberg Returns to Parliament Early", "url_title": "Frydenberg Returns to Parliament Early", "slug": "frydenberg-returns-to-parliament-early", "author_id": 113018, "author_username": "Grigfall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-25T08:06:55.003701Z", "published_at": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.562553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-02T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11109, "title": "Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?", "created_at": "2022-05-25T08:06:55.003701Z", "open_time": "2022-06-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-02T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-03T21:29:44.348255Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-02T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former Treasurer of Australia [Josh Frydenberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Frydenberg) lost the previously safe Liberal seat of Kooyong to an independent challenger, Monique Ryan, at the May 2022 Australian election. Frydenberg was feted as a potential future leader of the Liberal Party -- a proposal made impossible by his defeat. \n\nEducation Minister Alan Tudge held his seat of Aston, which is near Kooyong in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, [albeit with a 7% swing against him.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/asto) Tudge's career prospects are unclear following [allegations from his former staffer Rachelle Miller](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/04/alan-tudge-to-remain-on-backbench-after-report-into-allegations-by-former-staffer-released). \n\nOne proposal is that Tudge should resign his seat, triggering a by-election that Frydenberg could potentially win - and thereby re-enter parliament and even take the Liberal leadership. Before the election Laura Jayes cited an unnamed Liberal source claiming that Frydenberg was sounding out the possibility -- [which Frydenberg rejected.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuDndq_3OaM) Bernard Keane in Crikey has since [recommended this as a step forward for the Coalition](https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/23/alan-tudge-resign-josh-frydenberg-aston/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Josh Frydenberg becomes a member of the Australian House of Representatives or the Senate at any time between June 1, 2022 and before the next general election is called (expected in 2025, though it could come earlier). If this does not occur for any reason (such as no by-elections being held, Frydenberg not holding a campaign, or Frydenberg losing election), this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 11109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745490700.632949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745490700.632949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05108387321518539 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.161814642988887, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.4447768617419021, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41424469996435287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40044481360988804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.04213280279121279, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.01545867430289, "peer_score": 10.517759451313593, "coverage": 0.9730046264204439, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997757697343356, "spot_peer_score": 2.648352087071784, "spot_baseline_score": 50.58909297299573, "baseline_archived_score": 48.01545867430289, "peer_archived_score": 10.517759451313593, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.648352087071784, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 50.58909297299573 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289821.568674, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289821.568674, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.986482395657149, 0.013517604342850969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former Treasurer of Australia [Josh Frydenberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Frydenberg) lost the previously safe Liberal seat of Kooyong to an independent challenger, Monique Ryan, at the May 2022 Australian election. Frydenberg was feted as a potential future leader of the Liberal Party -- a proposal made impossible by his defeat. \n\nEducation Minister Alan Tudge held his seat of Aston, which is near Kooyong in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, [albeit with a 7% swing against him.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/asto) Tudge's career prospects are unclear following [allegations from his former staffer Rachelle Miller](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/04/alan-tudge-to-remain-on-backbench-after-report-into-allegations-by-former-staffer-released). \n\nOne proposal is that Tudge should resign his seat, triggering a by-election that Frydenberg could potentially win - and thereby re-enter parliament and even take the Liberal leadership. Before the election Laura Jayes cited an unnamed Liberal source claiming that Frydenberg was sounding out the possibility -- [which Frydenberg rejected.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuDndq_3OaM) Bernard Keane in Crikey has since [recommended this as a step forward for the Coalition](https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/23/alan-tudge-resign-josh-frydenberg-aston/)." }, { "id": 11105, "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?", "short_title": "Stacey Abrams GA Governor Election 2022", "url_title": "Stacey Abrams GA Governor Election 2022", "slug": "stacey-abrams-ga-governor-election-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-25T04:43:57.179150Z", "published_at": "2022-05-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.159924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T02:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T02:22:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11105, "title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-25T04:43:57.179150Z", "open_time": "2022-05-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-28T18:16:38.107395Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-28T18:16:38.107395Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T02:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-22T02:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-22T02:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Stacey Yvonne Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stacey_Abrams), born December 9, 1973, is an American politician, lawyer, voting rights activist, and author who served in the Georgia House of Representatives from 2007 to 2017, serving as minority leader from 2011 to 2017. Abrams is a member of the Democratic Party. \n\nAbrams was the Democratic nominee in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, becoming the first African-American female major-party gubernatorial nominee in the United States. She lost the election to Republican candidate Brian Kemp, but [refused to concede](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/530003-stacey-abrams-rejects-comparison-between-her-refusal-to-concede-and), accusing Kemp of engaging in voter suppression as Georgia Secretary of State.\n\nIn May 2022, [Abrams was re-nominated, unopposed,](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/us/elections/results-georgia-governor.html) by the Democratic Party to be their candidate in the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. Kemp was also re-nominated by the Republican Party, and the two will now face each other in [a rematch election on November 8, 2022.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_gubernatorial_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to January 20, 2023, Stacey Abrams is officially declared the winner of the November 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election, according to official certified results, as announced by or on the behalf of the Georgia Secretary of State. 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Abrams is a member of the Democratic Party. \n\nAbrams was the Democratic nominee in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, becoming the first African-American female major-party gubernatorial nominee in the United States. She lost the election to Republican candidate Brian Kemp, but [refused to concede](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/530003-stacey-abrams-rejects-comparison-between-her-refusal-to-concede-and), accusing Kemp of engaging in voter suppression as Georgia Secretary of State.\n\nIn May 2022, [Abrams was re-nominated, unopposed,](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/us/elections/results-georgia-governor.html) by the Democratic Party to be their candidate in the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. Kemp was also re-nominated by the Republican Party, and the two will now face each other in [a rematch election on November 8, 2022.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_gubernatorial_election)" }, { "id": 11045, "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?", "short_title": "Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?", "url_title": "Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?", "slug": "democrat-wins-2028-us-presidential-election", "author_id": 119416, "author_username": "jackmgaller", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-22T16:55:03.516409Z", "published_at": "2023-05-07T17:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:04:32.573529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-07T17:26:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-07T17:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 11045, "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2022-05-22T16:55:03.516409Z", "open_time": "2023-05-07T17:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-09T01:04:18.601636Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-09T01:04:18.601636Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure the majority of Electoral College votes, following the process outlined in the [Twelfth Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) to the US Constitution.\n\nThe 2028 United States Presidential Election is set to be held on November 7, 2028.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_\\(United_States\\)) Party receives the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_\\(United_States\\)) in the 2028 US Presidential Election. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the votes, or when Congress selects the President in the case a candidate does not receive a majority.", "fine_print": "If there is no presidential election held in the United States in 2028, this question will be **annulled**. 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A candidate must secure the majority of Electoral College votes, following the process outlined in the [Twelfth Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) to the US Constitution.\n\nThe 2028 United States Presidential Election is set to be held on November 7, 2028." }, { "id": 10986, "title": "Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?", "short_title": "Monkeypox Vaccine in US by 2023", "url_title": "Monkeypox Vaccine in US by 2023", "slug": "monkeypox-vaccine-in-us-by-2023", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-19T21:58:19.238594Z", "published_at": "2022-05-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.091224Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-19T22:00:03.466472Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-20T22:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-20T22:52:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10986, "title": "Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-05-19T21:58:19.238594Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T14:34:07.309633Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T14:34:07.309633Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-20T22:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-20T22:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-20T22:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, there have dozens of reported cases of monkeypox outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are [75](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=0) confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US. [According](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/monkeypox-cases-reported-uk-and-portugal) to a 19 May report by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:\n> Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.\n\nMonkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox, which was [eradicated](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/index.html) in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has [increased](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade [according](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON383) to WHO. Prior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article:\n> More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.\n\nHowever, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps [in particular](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/monkeypox-cases-confirmed-in-england-latest-updates) during sexual activities.\n\n---------------\n\nACAM200 and JYNNEOSTM (Imvanex) are [two](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/smallpox-vaccine.html) currently-authorized vaccines in the United States to prevent smallpox, and JYNNEOS (Imvanex) is also authorized specifically to prevent monkeypox . Effectiveness against monkeypox is thought to be about [85%](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/smallpox-vaccine.html). The FDA approved JYNNEOS (Imvanex) in 2019 for [\"the prevention of smallpox and monkeypox disease in adults 18 years of age and older determined to be at high risk for smallpox or monkeypox infection.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-live-non-replicating-vaccine-prevent-smallpox-and-monkeypox).\n\nAs of 19 May, the UK is [offering](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/britain-offers-smallpox-shot-monkeypox-cases-spread-europe-2022-05-19/) Imvanex to healthcare workers at high-risk. As of 19 May, the US is not yet expanded the population to which it is offering a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if the [U.S. CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/archives.html) recommends that groups constituting at least 10% of Americans receive a vaccine intended for protection against monkeypox. \n\nNote that there are about [22M healthcare workers](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/who-are-our-health-care-workers.html) in the US, which is about 6.7% of the overall US population of 330M. Thus, a CDC recommendation for all healthcare workers would not on its own be sufficient for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "***Previous resolution criteria*** \n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) authorizes use of a vaccine against monkeypox before 2023, and the group(s) it authorizes this for constitute at least 10% of the U.S. population.\n\nNote that there are about [22M healthcare workers](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/who-are-our-health-care-workers.html) in the US, which is about 6.7% of the overall US population of 330M. Thus, a FDA authorization for all healthcare workers would not on its own be sufficient for positive resolution.", "post_id": 10986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485436.520629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485436.520629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01508135400880337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.337944059304455, 0.26186999542989875, 0.06140803777816861, 0.3498027006320979, 0.1260252296747889, 0.0, 0.26328100418409217, 0.04839120839469786, 0.023605108532192685, 0.022678217394703742, 0.0028601984992038193, 0.021184045741895, 0.013762110946293562, 0.0, 0.00016905416761082872, 0.014302660777820482, 0.003212820732540038, 0.03366485022886151, 0.0, 0.031170496601848122, 0.0005792631881401083, 0.0, 0.0017330930934730138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026815793912544603, 0.0049732913477615855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040181678320830045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005513666487993219, 0.015246197439320123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02641124546378245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019763143819100113, 0.0004760368953111077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011172110363428878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.04925726456883, "coverage": 0.9999860135265815, "baseline_score": 78.85673091771332, "spot_peer_score": 25.147910163293375, "peer_archived_score": 9.04925726456883, "baseline_archived_score": 78.85673091771332, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.147910163293375 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485436.540108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485436.540108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 310, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recently, there have dozens of reported cases of monkeypox outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are [75](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=0) confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US. [According](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/monkeypox-cases-reported-uk-and-portugal) to a 19 May report by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:\n> Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.\n\nMonkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox, which was [eradicated](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/index.html) in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has [increased](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade [according](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON383) to WHO. Prior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article:\n> More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.\n\nHowever, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps [in particular](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/monkeypox-cases-confirmed-in-england-latest-updates) during sexual activities.\n\n---------------\n\nACAM200 and JYNNEOSTM (Imvanex) are [two](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/smallpox-vaccine.html) currently-authorized vaccines in the United States to prevent smallpox, and JYNNEOS (Imvanex) is also authorized specifically to prevent monkeypox . Effectiveness against monkeypox is thought to be about [85%](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/smallpox-vaccine.html). The FDA approved JYNNEOS (Imvanex) in 2019 for [\"the prevention of smallpox and monkeypox disease in adults 18 years of age and older determined to be at high risk for smallpox or monkeypox infection.\"](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-live-non-replicating-vaccine-prevent-smallpox-and-monkeypox).\n\nAs of 19 May, the UK is [offering](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/britain-offers-smallpox-shot-monkeypox-cases-spread-europe-2022-05-19/) Imvanex to healthcare workers at high-risk. As of 19 May, the US is not yet expanded the population to which it is offering a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine." }, { "id": 10977, "title": "Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?", "short_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On Monkeypox", "url_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On Monkeypox", "slug": "who-pheic-declaration-on-monkeypox", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-19T15:34:23.359907Z", "published_at": "2022-05-19T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.350981Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-19T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-23T14:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-23T14:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1683, "type": "question_series", "name": "Mpox (Monkeypox)", "slug": "monkeypox", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/mpox.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-05-17T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:09:04.802774Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10977, "title": "Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-05-19T15:34:23.359907Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T07:27:37.107451Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T07:27:37.107451Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-23T14:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-23T14:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-23T14:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dozens of reported cases of monkeypox have been reported outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are 75 confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US according to a [spreadsheet maintained by Global.health](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit?usp=sharing). According to a 19 May [report](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/monkeypox-cases-reported-uk-and-portugal) by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:\n> Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.\n\nMonkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox. Smallpox was [eradicated](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/index.html) in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has [increased](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade [according](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON383) to the World Health Organization (WHO). \n\nPrior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate (SAR) estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article, which reviewed 16 articles with SAR estimates:\n> More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.\n\nHowever, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps [in particular](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/monkeypox-cases-confirmed-in-england-latest-updates) during sexual activities.\n\n---------------\n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made [six](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern) PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the [30 January 2020](https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)) PHEIC declaration of COVID-19.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether, before 2023, WHO declares that the spread of monkeypox constitutes a PHEIC.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8723/date-of-next-who-pheic-declaration/) question on the date of the next PHEIC declaration of any kind.", "fine_print": "It is unlikely but possible that monkeypox will fall under the WHO's smallpox categorization, which means there will not be a PHEIC declaration since smallpox is automatically considered a PHEIC and thus do not require an IHR decision to declare them as such. If this is the case, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 10977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658588414.645804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658588414.645804, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6674144037494723 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07636463360960619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011567877219808393, 0.006538434515889284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1878693702750115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0048682966720974665, 0.045965596442465825, 0.2298858813119842, 0.02594861921613711, 0.0, 0.013033717454090599, 0.11244992003903825, 0.0, 0.0028073951658322475, 0.009296188013981906, 0.01909629879447462, 0.04284695856044769, 0.0, 0.09880471209380728, 0.18706775883164065, 0.0, 0.08604122431719344, 0.07692192128440743, 0.0, 0.03384973154790505, 0.19729040631172895, 1.1956259958200586, 0.0, 0.15294885571029376, 0.09406944879492288, 0.10173415022323253, 0.6728276248315668, 0.0, 0.08902226883380272, 0.0, 0.4716937170038558, 0.9348290006555737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13900220742828218, 0.19863413454475565, 1.733509366517917, 0.5916811991175074, 0.7473444013686493, 0.0, 1.304326997266176, 1.1683215159920743, 0.051909122003844725, 0.0, 0.03695675974617625, 1.433924334608084, 0.00023575687664802647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033018817534728137, 0.21915977823672686, 0.000849367383063262, 0.0, 0.00015133977507334414, 0.818726765806211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003553760753966023, 0.0, 0.6822058455829194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6945184512002316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.028768983422788e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5022216515251459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.921732278983315 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.7010848336891082, "coverage": 0.2867895493148301, "baseline_score": -13.391015586915074, "spot_peer_score": -10.14539117883795, "peer_archived_score": 3.7010848336891082, "baseline_archived_score": -13.391015586915074, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.14539117883795 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658561689.63954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658561689.63954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5586478016151774, 0.44135219838482265 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 547, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dozens of reported cases of monkeypox have been reported outside of areas in sub-Saharan Africa (namely, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Cameroon, and Democratic Republic of Congo) in which it is endemic. As of 12PM EST on 19 May, there are 75 confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases across the UK, Portugal, Spain, Canada, Sweden, Italy, and the US according to a [spreadsheet maintained by Global.health](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit?usp=sharing). According to a 19 May [report](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/monkeypox-cases-reported-uk-and-portugal) by the the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, many of these cases are likely the result of community transmission since many do not appear to be linked to travel:\n> Given the unusually high frequency of human-to-human transmission observed in this event, and the probable community transmission without history of traveling to endemic areas, the likelihood of further spread of the virus through close contact, for example during sexual activities, is considered to be high. The likelihood of transmission between individuals without close contact is considered to be low.\n\nMonkeypox is closely related to but distinct from smallpox. Smallpox was [eradicated](https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/index.html) in 1980. The first case of monkeypox was diagnosed in 1970 and in recent years the frequency and geographic distribution has [increased](https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/monkeypox) in Central Africa and West Africa. A recent [systematic review](https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141) finds that monkeypox has a less severe clinical presentation and is less transmissible than smallpox, but also that it has been evolving in recent decades to become of \"global relevance.\" The same article also reports a pooled case fatality rate estimate of 8.7%, with a point estimate of 10.6% for the Central African clade and 3.6% for the West African clade. As of 18 May, all sequenced monkeypox cases seem to be of the West African clade [according](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON383) to the World Health Organization (WHO). \n\nPrior to the ongoing 2022 outbreak, the majority of reported and suspected monkeypox cases were thought to be the result of animal-to-human transmission rather than human-to-human transmission. The secondary attack rate (SAR) estimates of monkeypox pre-2022 are consistent with this — according to the aforementioned systematic review article, which reviewed 16 articles with SAR estimates:\n> More than half of the articles (9/16) reported an SAR of 0%, and this spanned the decades from the 1970s through 2010–2019. Similarly, over those same five decades, the SAR ranged from 0.3–10.2% in 6/16 articles . In the remaining article, a median SAR of 50% was reported in an outbreak among 16 households.\n\nHowever, monkeypox now seems to be spreading as a result of close contact between humans, perhaps [in particular](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/monkeypox-cases-confirmed-in-england-latest-updates) during sexual activities.\n\n---------------\n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made [six](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern) PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the [30 January 2020](https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)) PHEIC declaration of COVID-19." }, { "id": 10969, "title": "Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "James Charles 25M Subscribers by 2023", "url_title": "James Charles 25M Subscribers by 2023", "slug": "james-charles-25m-subscribers-by-2023", "author_id": 103095, "author_username": "xodarap", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-18T20:31:24.168491Z", "published_at": "2022-06-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.366210Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:44:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": 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"2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T12:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T12:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "James Charles is a popular beauty YouTuber who was the [subject of controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Charles#Grooming_allegations) in April 2021 after admitting to sexting underage boys (though he denied knowing they were underage at the time). Since then, he has [lost over a million followers](https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/jamescharles).\n\nPreviously, he has bounced back from controversy. In May 2019, he [set the record](https://www.insider.com/james-charles-canceled-jeffree-star-why-real-subscriber-loss-2020-12) for most YouTube subscribers lost in a single month after [a controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Charles#Tati_Westbrook_feud) with fellow beauty YouTubers Jeffree Star and Tati Westbrook, but regained that amount in seven months.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [James Charles' YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCucot-Zp428OwkyRm2I7v2Q) has at least 25 million subscribers at any time between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. Otherwise it resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672461845.213796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672461845.213796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015295992782940896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.165385986181775, 0.189341530780365, 0.04888313629975682, 0.1061981125451795, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013393291873889481, 0.018701514513498173, 0.01590012308576472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011881196955369967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.06093929126877448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.317616394911213, "coverage": 0.9999425383553275, "baseline_score": 57.56188923762985, "spot_peer_score": 3.3537733730676202, "peer_archived_score": 7.317616394911213, "baseline_archived_score": 57.56188923762985, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.3537733730676202 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672472803.764523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672472803.764523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "James Charles is a popular beauty YouTuber who was the [subject of controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Charles#Grooming_allegations) in April 2021 after admitting to sexting underage boys (though he denied knowing they were underage at the time). Since then, he has [lost over a million followers](https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/jamescharles).\n\nPreviously, he has bounced back from controversy. In May 2019, he [set the record](https://www.insider.com/james-charles-canceled-jeffree-star-why-real-subscriber-loss-2020-12) for most YouTube subscribers lost in a single month after [a controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Charles#Tati_Westbrook_feud) with fellow beauty YouTubers Jeffree Star and Tati Westbrook, but regained that amount in seven months." }, { "id": 10965, "title": "Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?", "short_title": "US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?", "url_title": "US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?", "slug": "us-compute-capacity-restrictions-before-2050", "author_id": 113042, "author_username": "haukurth", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-18T13:20:43.092304Z", "published_at": "2022-05-21T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T14:50:34.283634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-21T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:56:38.801639Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T23:15:45.818112Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T23:15:45.818112Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10965, "title": "Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-05-18T13:20:43.092304Z", "open_time": "2022-05-21T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-22T20:26:31.856942Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-22T20:26:31.856942Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Under current law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware. But it is possible to envision scenarios where governments may place restrictions on such resources for public safety or other purposes. \n\nA particular area which might cause restrictions to come into place is artificial intelligence. In recent years, AI capabilities have grown rapidly and forecasters believe this trend is set to continue with increasingly capable AI appearing in the next years and decades. Concerns have been raised that such increasingly powerful technology will pose various safety problems up to and including existential risks to humanity.\n\nIf decision-makers come to believe that increasing AI capabilities pose grave risks then it is possible that governmental entitites will seek to address the matter with restrictions and regulations. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way to address potential risk may be to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors. Various practical difficulties would encounter any such regulatory schemes but they might nevertheless be considered if alternative measures to ensure safety do not appear promising.\n\nOther areas that might lead to legal restrictions on computational resources include cryptography and cryptocurrency. Concerns with energy usage for environmental or economic reasons could conceivably also contribute to restrictions on computational resources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If, between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2050, any legal limits on the amount of computer hardware or compute capacity available to individual actors, projects, companies or other entities are put into place anywhere in the United States (by a federal, state, or local government).", "fine_print": "Restrictions that aim to curtail or regulate AI development or cryptography or cryptocurrency in ways other than by restricting the general amount of resources available do not trigger positive resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the \"United States\" will be considered the state which controls >50% of the territory controlled by the US on January 1, 2022, and whose political capital is within the same territory. If no such state exists, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 10965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763558928.324953, "end_time": 1763825094.537472, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763558928.324953, "end_time": 1763825094.537472, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42139216502693083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.323860001273187, 0.0, 0.12378052259604357, 0.0, 0.5368296616268898, 0.21590977405535652, 0.0, 0.032753212234852405, 0.0, 0.42040805799334846, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.389620124325323, 0.38472633077366164, 0.23345035687043875, 0.011719324644404892, 0.0027408287615106786, 0.0, 0.009971818499667707, 0.006417389145399538, 0.014369596090439089, 0.6014094984068438, 0.2602345240788403, 0.8096267679872675, 2.1738096245833147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009064926762985018, 0.0, 0.23016592642740621, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.17511882441993584, 0.13192956957730895, 0.0, 0.019091628878783056, 0.19142031140958948, 0.0060744525241443175, 0.6662343475214876, 1.7421226727174886, 0.682070093884217, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0, 0.010950938381210888, 0.760990304689207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0192658484638109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028374229916521676, 0.09540154541495516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34378663185460917, 0.9982750958708484, 0.116073897394804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0306189789528952, 0.0, 0.03030717792890102, 0.6618859915316498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346762477837855, 0.0, 0.4798203352552923, 0.5066420810053682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028017117501066016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9714388392984876 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287235.465005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287235.465005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6363326527225541, 0.3636673472774459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Under current law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware. But it is possible to envision scenarios where governments may place restrictions on such resources for public safety or other purposes. \n\nA particular area which might cause restrictions to come into place is artificial intelligence. In recent years, AI capabilities have grown rapidly and forecasters believe this trend is set to continue with increasingly capable AI appearing in the next years and decades. Concerns have been raised that such increasingly powerful technology will pose various safety problems up to and including existential risks to humanity.\n\nIf decision-makers come to believe that increasing AI capabilities pose grave risks then it is possible that governmental entitites will seek to address the matter with restrictions and regulations. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way to address potential risk may be to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors. Various practical difficulties would encounter any such regulatory schemes but they might nevertheless be considered if alternative measures to ensure safety do not appear promising.\n\nOther areas that might lead to legal restrictions on computational resources include cryptography and cryptocurrency. Concerns with energy usage for environmental or economic reasons could conceivably also contribute to restrictions on computational resources." }, { "id": 10962, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?", "short_title": "The US-India Strategic Partnership", "url_title": "The US-India Strategic Partnership", "slug": "the-us-india-strategic-partnership", "author_id": 119627, "author_username": "pranaypkot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-18T10:31:38.000801Z", "published_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:56:38.228035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:56:38.801639Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:56:38.801639Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10962, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-05-18T10:31:38.000801Z", "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-15T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:31:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 202", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762504843.474, "end_time": 1766133307.819, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762504843.474, "end_time": 1766133307.819, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011243525522373857 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.32423502717525, 0.2739859364129244, 0.3390876156680339, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.608899451637137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288649.763864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288649.763864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9846580916724114, 0.01534190832758861 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 10954, "title": "Will the US Government designate Russia a \"State Sponsor of Terrorism\" by 2023?", "short_title": "Russia State Sponsor of Terrorism by 2023", "url_title": "Russia State Sponsor of Terrorism by 2023", "slug": "russia-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-by-2023", "author_id": 124884, "author_username": "satisficer", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-17T17:26:06.675216Z", "published_at": "2022-06-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"[State Sponsors of Terrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Sponsors_of_Terrorism)\" is a designation applied by the US Department of State to countries which the Department alleges to have \"repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism\". Inclusion on [the list](https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism) imposes strict unilateral sanctions and lifts sovereign immunity protections shielding a country from being sued for civil damages.\n\n[On May 15, 2022](https://thehill.com/news/senate/3489027-mcconnell-urges-biden-to-name-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged President Biden to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. McConnell made his comments after Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) introduced a resolution on May 10 calling for the designation of the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. [In an interview with MSNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7C0vf0QkJw), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) also expressed support for the designation.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the Russian Federation appears on the US State Department's [State Sponsors of Terrorism list](https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/) at any time between June 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023.\n\nIn the event that the Russian Federation is placed on the list but removed before 2023, the question will still resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10954, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672522815.795549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672522815.795549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04152006836383168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.624300467677749, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2344806819806397, 0.15741686492875798, 0.10035680769537357, 0.0, 0.19067104270697824, 0.3801174608913498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04747586017818385, 0.017990599509988367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11443914821168538, 0.029862555113680366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05012661364798534, 0.0, 0.019589177792223862, 0.0095357691321311, 0.010489765833368194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063899663382671465, 0.003260899582300764, 0.7732176109728021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06217576471753762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05389839539644623, 0.0, 0.05425693237081977, 0.12956589212469594, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.0, 0.011212284921860386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03775186019270107, 0.0016870797780243333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016377107707432942, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03198451829556078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04325450585999784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014557515078758613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.913546290524963, "coverage": 0.9973229212811686, "baseline_score": 37.61443390287772, "spot_peer_score": 0.2543274147133633, "peer_archived_score": 19.913546290524963, "baseline_archived_score": 37.61443390287772, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2543274147133633 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672522815.815765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672522815.815765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 411, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"[State Sponsors of Terrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Sponsors_of_Terrorism)\" is a designation applied by the US Department of State to countries which the Department alleges to have \"repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism\". Inclusion on [the list](https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism) imposes strict unilateral sanctions and lifts sovereign immunity protections shielding a country from being sued for civil damages.\n\n[On May 15, 2022](https://thehill.com/news/senate/3489027-mcconnell-urges-biden-to-name-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism/), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) urged President Biden to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. McConnell made his comments after Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) introduced a resolution on May 10 calling for the designation of the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. [In an interview with MSNBC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7C0vf0QkJw), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) also expressed support for the designation." }, { "id": 10953, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "short_title": "Jeff Bezos Major US Politician by Feb 2033", "url_title": "Jeff Bezos Major US Politician by Feb 2033", "slug": "jeff-bezos-major-us-politician-by-feb-2033", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-16T18:26:33.776440Z", "published_at": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T00:15:45.329334Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10953, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "created_at": "2022-05-16T18:26:33.776440Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T23:41:18.975097Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T23:41:18.975097Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former president and CEO of Amazon. With a net worth of around US$140 billion as of May 2022, Bezos is the second-wealthiest person in the world and was the wealthiest from 2017 to 2021 according to both Bloomberg's Billionaires Index and Forbes.\n\nIn 2022, [Bezos has criticised the Biden Administration for its handling of inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/8ef4934e-2072-4534-bce6-824fb0da8628). \n\nBezos' political affiliation is [not definitively known](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/07/the-politics-of-jeff-bezos/); however, he has donated to both Democratic and Republican politicians (though has donated mostly to Democrats), and [has been characterized as 'libertarian' by Amazon investor Nick Hanauer](https://marketrealist.com/p/jeff-bezos-political-party/). He has also [donated to non-partisan political organizations.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-ranks-no-1-among-sp-500-ceos-in-political-spending-2018-10-18)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to February 1 2033, Jeff Bezos legally holds any of the following public offices for any period of time:\n\n- President of the United States\n- Vice President of the United States\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- United States Senator\n- United States Representative\n- Governor of any U.S. state or territor", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763495625.950827, "end_time": 1766256297.786501, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763495625.950827, "end_time": 1766256297.786501, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06985735801490964 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7006038025414559, 3.3303458079188495, 0.5516828890645566, 1.1950740086916736, 0.3794835292648215, 2.33936845133393, 1.0174974313809737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33186157795123666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288945.356533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288945.356533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942114115576146, 0.0057885884423854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former president and CEO of Amazon. With a net worth of around US$140 billion as of May 2022, Bezos is the second-wealthiest person in the world and was the wealthiest from 2017 to 2021 according to both Bloomberg's Billionaires Index and Forbes.\n\nIn 2022, [Bezos has criticised the Biden Administration for its handling of inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/8ef4934e-2072-4534-bce6-824fb0da8628). \n\nBezos' political affiliation is [not definitively known](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/07/the-politics-of-jeff-bezos/); however, he has donated to both Democratic and Republican politicians (though has donated mostly to Democrats), and [has been characterized as 'libertarian' by Amazon investor Nick Hanauer](https://marketrealist.com/p/jeff-bezos-political-party/). He has also [donated to non-partisan political organizations.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-ranks-no-1-among-sp-500-ceos-in-political-spending-2018-10-18)" } ] }
