Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4160
{ "count": 6389, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4140", "results": [ { "id": 10953, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "short_title": "Jeff Bezos Major US Politician by Feb 2033", "url_title": "Jeff Bezos Major US Politician by Feb 2033", "slug": "jeff-bezos-major-us-politician-by-feb-2033", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-16T18:26:33.776440Z", "published_at": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T00:15:45.329334Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10953, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "created_at": "2022-05-16T18:26:33.776440Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T23:41:18.975097Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T23:41:18.975097Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former president and CEO of Amazon. With a net worth of around US$140 billion as of May 2022, Bezos is the second-wealthiest person in the world and was the wealthiest from 2017 to 2021 according to both Bloomberg's Billionaires Index and Forbes.\n\nIn 2022, [Bezos has criticised the Biden Administration for its handling of inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/8ef4934e-2072-4534-bce6-824fb0da8628). \n\nBezos' political affiliation is [not definitively known](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/07/the-politics-of-jeff-bezos/); however, he has donated to both Democratic and Republican politicians (though has donated mostly to Democrats), and [has been characterized as 'libertarian' by Amazon investor Nick Hanauer](https://marketrealist.com/p/jeff-bezos-political-party/). He has also [donated to non-partisan political organizations.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-ranks-no-1-among-sp-500-ceos-in-political-spending-2018-10-18)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if prior to February 1 2033, Jeff Bezos legally holds any of the following public offices for any period of time:\n\n- President of the United States\n- Vice President of the United States\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- United States Senator\n- United States Representative\n- Governor of any U.S. state or territor", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763495625.950827, "end_time": 1766256297.786501, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763495625.950827, "end_time": 1766256297.786501, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06985735801490964 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7006038025414559, 3.3303458079188495, 0.5516828890645566, 1.1950740086916736, 0.3794835292648215, 2.33936845133393, 1.0174974313809737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33186157795123666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288945.356533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288945.356533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942114115576146, 0.0057885884423854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former president and CEO of Amazon. With a net worth of around US$140 billion as of May 2022, Bezos is the second-wealthiest person in the world and was the wealthiest from 2017 to 2021 according to both Bloomberg's Billionaires Index and Forbes.\n\nIn 2022, [Bezos has criticised the Biden Administration for its handling of inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/8ef4934e-2072-4534-bce6-824fb0da8628). \n\nBezos' political affiliation is [not definitively known](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/07/the-politics-of-jeff-bezos/); however, he has donated to both Democratic and Republican politicians (though has donated mostly to Democrats), and [has been characterized as 'libertarian' by Amazon investor Nick Hanauer](https://marketrealist.com/p/jeff-bezos-political-party/). He has also [donated to non-partisan political organizations.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-ranks-no-1-among-sp-500-ceos-in-political-spending-2018-10-18)" }, { "id": 10952, "title": "Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US State by 2030?", "short_title": "US State Bans Inter-Racial Marriage by 2030", "url_title": "US State Bans Inter-Racial Marriage by 2030", "slug": "us-state-bans-inter-racial-marriage-by-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-16T17:59:32.734926Z", "published_at": "2022-05-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T10:12:09.175426Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 108, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 360, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10952, "title": "Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US State by 2030?", "created_at": "2022-05-16T17:59:32.734926Z", "open_time": "2022-05-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-19T06:45:29.757890Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-19T06:45:29.757890Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 2, 2022 [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) published a leaked draft of a Supreme Court Decision which would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Justice Alito wrote \"The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation's history and traditions.\" Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, law professor at Stetson University, [said](https://www.vox.com/23055107/supreme-court-abortion-roe-wade-constitution) of Alito's leaked opinion: \"After this [opinion], Loving, Windsor, and Obergefell are all on constitutionally thin ice.\" [Loving v. Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia) is a landmark 1967 SCOTUS case which found that laws banning inter-racial marriage were unconstitutional.\n\nMichelle Deal-Zimmerman, writing for the [Baltimore Sun](https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/bs-ed-mdz-interracial-marriage-scotus-20220510-4lve5t5tvbfyvjlt2kfryum2v4-story.html) in May 2022, wrote \"If, OK, *when* the U.S. Supreme Court gets around to banning interracial marriage, my husband and I wonder what will happen. [...] I don’t wish to sound alarmist, but a lot of things we have taken for granted during the last half-century appear to be crumbling before our eyes.\"\n\nDavid Bernstein, Law Professor writing for [reason.com](https://reason.com/volokh/2022/05/11/no-the-supreme-court-is-not-going-to-reconsider-the-constitutionality-of-bans-on-interracial-marriage/) said in May 2022, \"No, the Supreme Court is Not Going to Reconsider the Constitutionality of Bans on Interracial Marriage [...] overruling Loving would be politically unthinkable.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, inter-racial marriages are either not granted or not recognized on equal footing with same-race marriages by any one or more US States, or by the US federal government.\n\n\"Equal footing\" here means that interracial marriages are performed and recognized on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of same-race couples, with married interracial couples being afforded all the accompanying rights and responsibilities married same-race couples are granted, or recognized as having.\n\nThis question may resolve as **Yes** if [Loving v. Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia) is overturned, however a US State would then need to enforce a ban on inter-racial marriages to resolve the question as **Yes**. This may also occur if any state enforces such a ban, and the ban is not challenged by courts.\n\nAny ban on inter-racial marriage must be enforced for at least one couple to resolve the question as **Yes**; a ban which is \"on the books\" but unenforced is insufficient to resolve the question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763461202.554752, "end_time": 1765178027.167319, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763461202.554752, "end_time": 1765178027.167319, "forecaster_count": 228, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02504507473637187 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.52806980268668, 5.104860344272797, 0.39232828224054933, 0.055403458753293604, 0.0609675505419002, 0.4488046276606451, 0.0, 0.048968894355961516, 0.004734521915143061, 0.0, 0.0686357899813639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012003096527658812, 0.0, 0.44183798518477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014220367198943583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04322189309748262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002628270701129751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4905763764883737 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288749.326109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288749.326109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 350, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 657, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 2, 2022 [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) published a leaked draft of a Supreme Court Decision which would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Justice Alito wrote \"The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation's history and traditions.\" Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, law professor at Stetson University, [said](https://www.vox.com/23055107/supreme-court-abortion-roe-wade-constitution) of Alito's leaked opinion: \"After this [opinion], Loving, Windsor, and Obergefell are all on constitutionally thin ice.\" [Loving v. Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia) is a landmark 1967 SCOTUS case which found that laws banning inter-racial marriage were unconstitutional.\n\nMichelle Deal-Zimmerman, writing for the [Baltimore Sun](https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/bs-ed-mdz-interracial-marriage-scotus-20220510-4lve5t5tvbfyvjlt2kfryum2v4-story.html) in May 2022, wrote \"If, OK, *when* the U.S. Supreme Court gets around to banning interracial marriage, my husband and I wonder what will happen. [...] I don’t wish to sound alarmist, but a lot of things we have taken for granted during the last half-century appear to be crumbling before our eyes.\"\n\nDavid Bernstein, Law Professor writing for [reason.com](https://reason.com/volokh/2022/05/11/no-the-supreme-court-is-not-going-to-reconsider-the-constitutionality-of-bans-on-interracial-marriage/) said in May 2022, \"No, the Supreme Court is Not Going to Reconsider the Constitutionality of Bans on Interracial Marriage [...] overruling Loving would be politically unthinkable.\"" }, { "id": 10949, "title": "Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "short_title": "Russian Leader Disapproves of Invasion", "url_title": "Russian Leader Disapproves of Invasion", "slug": "russian-leader-disapproves-of-invasion", "author_id": 120816, "author_username": "tryingToPredictFuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-16T11:07:34.605861Z", "published_at": "2022-05-25T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:48:43.239659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-25T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 298, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10949, "title": "Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "created_at": "2022-05-16T11:07:34.605861Z", "open_time": "2022-05-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-26T05:40:27.546335Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-26T05:40:27.546335Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging). \n\nThe next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.\n\nThere are several historical examples of such changes in Russia:\n\n- After the regime change in 1917, the new Russian leaders have heavily criticized the wars waged by Alexander II, calling them \"imperialistic\".\n\n- After Mikhail Gorbachev became the leader of the USSR, he withdrew the soviet forces from Afghanistan.\n\nSome high-ranked Russian siloviki have already voiced their opposition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine (for example, retired Col. Gen. [Leonid Ivashov](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html)).\n\nOn the other hand, [Oleksiy Arestovych](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych), a Ukrainian presidential adviser, compares the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the long-lasting Arab–Israeli conflict, and predicts that it could last for decades ([source](https://web.archive.org/web/20220522105853/https://uarefugees.news/news/russias-war-against-ukraine-may-last-until-2035-arestovich-believes/))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing *any* of these:\n\n1. Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime).\n2. Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority (or all) of the Ukrainian territories occupied in 2022+ that are still under Russian control, and do it without attempting to capture new territories.\n3. Ordering a return of the territories to Ukraine.\n4. Returning the de facto control of Crimea, LNR, and/or DNR to Ukraine.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the next Russian leader does none of the above by January 1, 2030.\n\nIf Vladimir Putin remains the de facto leader of Russia from February 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we are only interested in the next Russian leader, not Putin. If Putin himself did any of the aforementioned points, we ignore it, as long as the question still can be resolved by the next leader in the future (e.g by condemning the invasion).\n\nTo account for possible short-lived interim governments, we define *the next* as any Russian leader inaugurated within 3 years after the end of the Putin's de facto rule. See also the \"fine print\" button below.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the \"Russian leader\" must be the *de facto* leader of Russia. A powerless \"government in exile\" doesn't count. If the Russian military follows his orders, we consider the leader as a de facto leader, even if he is installed / controlled by another country. \n\nIn the case of a civil war or a large-scale occupation of Russia, they must be a de facto leader of the bigger part of Russia, as measured by population.", "post_id": 10949, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763333312.109734, "end_time": 1764990021.011072, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763333312.109734, "end_time": 1764990021.011072, "forecaster_count": 223, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.28986758858634154 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.102874836191809, 0.5066960543192055, 0.10596917992008235, 0.0009748913558544423, 0.15892256346454525, 1.1159198376994728, 0.3442019500217136, 0.2365791026445346, 0.14732893944192282, 0.1392195457243858, 2.1730837723570393, 8.563468483311285e-05, 0.001902417457811334, 2.416514070337416e-06, 1.6194463747258419, 1.8039318121915189, 0.5679997570982518, 0.04134332081563477, 0.05006081512681509, 1.168582141457573, 0.31588488498814415, 0.02905765168246984, 0.9520178365025297, 0.2655471930697215, 0.0, 0.7385790180547316, 0.0007561900453384664, 1.564587131795722, 0.08218606170706179, 0.0, 2.571098979177544, 0.0, 3.197331759609085e-05, 0.40292113808634833, 0.06027932947815745, 0.03467723202162892, 0.11022159256009567, 0.0011388552039327867, 0.0, 0.0008773412189236958, 1.584626682828807, 0.5040020792062486, 0.0011734211334492076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058788555858271085, 0.4376452792611315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2518919266053916, 0.0, 5.358909246008186e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9410202484014942, 0.7957794147175464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1511580631296752, 0.0, 0.014675125533593111, 0.0, 0.019581216324110886, 0.00735950542733409, 0.0, 0.0, 5.9055545938775134e-05, 0.0, 0.028422555297362147, 0.07700633050054294, 4.609306196283644e-06, 0.00033379574539361186, 0.0, 1.2972203833465765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21214295317715653, 0.004544704777542327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4697290056145743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013527390672728316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009221350684218125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07420460342410827 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288473.525813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288473.525813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8575978836847132, 0.14240211631528674 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 39, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 704, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging). \n\nThe next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.\n\nThere are several historical examples of such changes in Russia:\n\n- After the regime change in 1917, the new Russian leaders have heavily criticized the wars waged by Alexander II, calling them \"imperialistic\".\n\n- After Mikhail Gorbachev became the leader of the USSR, he withdrew the soviet forces from Afghanistan.\n\nSome high-ranked Russian siloviki have already voiced their opposition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine (for example, retired Col. Gen. [Leonid Ivashov](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html)).\n\nOn the other hand, [Oleksiy Arestovych](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych), a Ukrainian presidential adviser, compares the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the long-lasting Arab–Israeli conflict, and predicts that it could last for decades ([source](https://web.archive.org/web/20220522105853/https://uarefugees.news/news/russias-war-against-ukraine-may-last-until-2035-arestovich-believes/))" }, { "id": 10938, "title": "Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?", "short_title": "Queen Elizabeth II Abdicates in 2022", "url_title": "Queen Elizabeth II Abdicates in 2022", "slug": "queen-elizabeth-ii-abdicates-in-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-14T04:55:47.725849Z", "published_at": "2022-05-22T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.016884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-22T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-08T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-08T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-22T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10938, "title": "Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-14T04:55:47.725849Z", "open_time": "2022-05-22T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-23T12:48:50.166580Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-23T12:48:50.166580Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-08T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-08T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-08T17:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), born 21 April 1926, is Queen of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms, and has reigned since 6 February 1952. She is currently the longest-reigning British monarch in history, and the [third-longest-reigning monarch of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\n\nAt the age of 96, she is also the oldest ever British monarch, and [has become increasingly frail](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/queen-95-become-frail-shes-26453866) in recent years, and has significantly [reduced her workload](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/03/19/buckingham-palace-redraws-royal-diary-support-queen/). [Some have suggested that it is time for her to abdicate.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/13/queen-elizabeth-ii-abdicate/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)\n\nIn 1947, on her 21st birthday, then-Princess Elizabeth [proclaimed](https://www.royal.uk/21st-birthday-speech-21-april-1947):\n\n>I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service, and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.\n\nThis statement has led many to believe that Elizabeth would not [abdicate.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdication) Others [claim that she is unlikely to abdicate](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/11/she-made-a-pact-with-god-why-the-queen-will-not-be-abdicating) because of her religious beliefs.\n\n>Speculation about Philip’s death precipitating an abdication is unlikely to bear out, say royal experts. “One main reason why the Queen will absolutely not abdicate is unlike other European monarchs, she is an anointed Queen,” the royal historian Hugo Vickers told the Guardian, referring to the pact she made with God during her coronation. “And if you are an anointed Queen you do not abdicate.”\n\nThe last British monarch to abdicate was [Edward VIII in 1936.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdication_of_Edward_VIII)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2023, it is announced by Elizabeth II herself, by the Government of the United Kingdom, or by representatives of the Royal Family, that Queen Elizabeth II has abdicated. \n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if Elizabeth II is still reigning on January 1, 2023, or if her reign ends for any reason other than abdication prior to that date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662659550.733524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06489448967299792 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662659550.733524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06489448967299792 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06255581332437413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.577456646312118, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.661395963365822, 0.7054742804169744, 0.3732082487236455, 0.04799547554064025, 0.03173358396197871, 0.4213330257162349, 0.7761820631869306, 0.0, 0.020500370748786623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5264259619667985, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.33446767549744005, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4631651509935208, 0.0, 0.5683229184737245, 0.0, 0.30877468606497765, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003696163311486092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.6661795221397893, "coverage": 0.48785449114835466, "baseline_score": 41.316307358060065, "spot_peer_score": -0.08129027453225522, "peer_archived_score": 2.6661795221397893, "baseline_archived_score": 41.316307358060065, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.08129027453225522 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662536679.983612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662536679.983612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9785505530612414, 0.021449446938758568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), born 21 April 1926, is Queen of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms, and has reigned since 6 February 1952. She is currently the longest-reigning British monarch in history, and the [third-longest-reigning monarch of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\n\nAt the age of 96, she is also the oldest ever British monarch, and [has become increasingly frail](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/queen-95-become-frail-shes-26453866) in recent years, and has significantly [reduced her workload](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2022/03/19/buckingham-palace-redraws-royal-diary-support-queen/). [Some have suggested that it is time for her to abdicate.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/13/queen-elizabeth-ii-abdicate/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)\n\nIn 1947, on her 21st birthday, then-Princess Elizabeth [proclaimed](https://www.royal.uk/21st-birthday-speech-21-april-1947):\n\n>I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service, and the service of our great imperial family to which we all belong.\n\nThis statement has led many to believe that Elizabeth would not [abdicate.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdication) Others [claim that she is unlikely to abdicate](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/11/she-made-a-pact-with-god-why-the-queen-will-not-be-abdicating) because of her religious beliefs.\n\n>Speculation about Philip’s death precipitating an abdication is unlikely to bear out, say royal experts. “One main reason why the Queen will absolutely not abdicate is unlike other European monarchs, she is an anointed Queen,” the royal historian Hugo Vickers told the Guardian, referring to the pact she made with God during her coronation. “And if you are an anointed Queen you do not abdicate.”\n\nThe last British monarch to abdicate was [Edward VIII in 1936.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdication_of_Edward_VIII)" }, { "id": 10933, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?", "short_title": "SBF Top 100 Richest People in 2030", "url_title": "SBF Top 100 Richest People in 2030", "slug": "sbf-top-100-richest-people-in-2030", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-13T02:16:54.597360Z", "published_at": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T00:06:28.063986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10933, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?", "created_at": "2022-05-13T02:16:54.597360Z", "open_time": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-19T12:01:50.870000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-19T12:01:50.870000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, also known by his initials SBF, is an American entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He is the founder and CEO of [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)), a cryptocurrency exchange. He also manages assets through Alameda Research, a quantitative cryptocurrency trading firm he founded in October 2017.\n\nBankman-Fried is a supporter of effective altruism and pursues earning to give as an altruistic career. He is a member of Giving What We Can and plans to donate the great majority of his wealth to effective charities over the course of his life.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, Sam Bankman-Fried is ranked at least the 100th-wealthiest person in the world by *either* the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#453f84e23d78), or the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index.](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)\n\nIf Forbes or Bloomberg do not report any data for January 1, 2030, another credible source may be used, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763510777.138024, "end_time": 1764480125.878995, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763510777.138024, "end_time": 1764480125.878995, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05362118906208022 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.794518226691597, 4.724110801615032, 0.024357333426329023, 0.02417234317621863, 0.021185972166253137, 0.003328506563033782, 0.0001229500427680457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043249795223094807, 0.0005680730021109231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08617906066398107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.3696670179678695e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.799396622574348e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5696507093419652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001459626827981793, 8.417018276060128e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.989121289631428e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014349716653094748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.975390101846745e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.918678144365122 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288104.943203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288104.943203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 437, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, also known by his initials SBF, is an American entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He is the founder and CEO of [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)), a cryptocurrency exchange. He also manages assets through Alameda Research, a quantitative cryptocurrency trading firm he founded in October 2017.\n\nBankman-Fried is a supporter of effective altruism and pursues earning to give as an altruistic career. He is a member of Giving What We Can and plans to donate the great majority of his wealth to effective charities over the course of his life." }, { "id": 10931, "title": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?", "short_title": "Coinbase Files for Bankruptcy in 2022", "url_title": "Coinbase Files for Bankruptcy in 2022", "slug": "coinbase-files-for-bankruptcy-in-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-12T05:43:16.725064Z", "published_at": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.188295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10931, "title": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-12T05:43:16.725064Z", "open_time": "2022-05-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-18T18:16:33.814184Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-18T18:16:33.814184Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Coinbase Global, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase), branded Coinbase, is an American publicly-traded company incorporated in Delaware that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume.\n\nIn May 2022, amid a broad rout in the cryptocurrency markets, as [reported by Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/coinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event), \n\n>Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said there is “no risk of bankruptcy” for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, even amid a “black swan” event.\n\n>A filing late Tuesday by Coinbase included a “new risk factor” based on recent Securities and Exchange Commission requirement for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\n\n>“Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors,” Coinbase wrote in the filing.\n\nOn May 11 2022, CEO Brian Armstrong [tweeted](https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1524233602661109760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1524233602661109760%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2022-05-11%2Fcoinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event), inter alia,\n\n>\"We have no risk of bankruptcy, however we included a new risk factor based on an SEC requirement called SAB 121, which is a newly required disclosure for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Coinbase Global Inc., or any parent company thereof, files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10931, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672486123.129108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672486123.129108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027111185920140494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.716784293668052, 0.14895746359848228, 0.6350785577593048, 0.7163076304137979, 0.5940873046399798, 0.18699392515388896, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.0052654971115142805, 0.0, 0.3293728971196586, 0.0, 0.002663874141901789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002953318548499343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011346938622065234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010468429223174789, 0.009647632172495797, 0.11306396602090492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17919622333224436, 9.055150687721309e-05, 0.18854470156520242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10049417417338719 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.435630203436027, "coverage": 0.9998244897807466, "baseline_score": 92.26661751586948, "spot_peer_score": 2.680970693561849, "peer_archived_score": 3.435630203436027, "baseline_archived_score": 92.26661751586948, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.680970693561849 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672486123.175437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672486123.175437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 279, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Coinbase Global, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase), branded Coinbase, is an American publicly-traded company incorporated in Delaware that operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. It is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States by trading volume.\n\nIn May 2022, amid a broad rout in the cryptocurrency markets, as [reported by Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/coinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event), \n\n>Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said there is “no risk of bankruptcy” for the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, even amid a “black swan” event.\n\n>A filing late Tuesday by Coinbase included a “new risk factor” based on recent Securities and Exchange Commission requirement for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\n\n>“Because custodially held crypto assets may be considered to be the property of a bankruptcy estate, in the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors,” Coinbase wrote in the filing.\n\nOn May 11 2022, CEO Brian Armstrong [tweeted](https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1524233602661109760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1524233602661109760%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2022-05-11%2Fcoinbase-ceo-says-no-risk-of-bankruptcy-amid-black-swan-event), inter alia,\n\n>\"We have no risk of bankruptcy, however we included a new risk factor based on an SEC requirement called SAB 121, which is a newly required disclosure for public companies that hold crypto assets for third parties.\"" }, { "id": 10928, "title": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?", "short_title": "Rajapaksa Exits Sri Lankan Presidency 2023", "url_title": "Rajapaksa Exits Sri Lankan Presidency 2023", "slug": "rajapaksa-exits-sri-lankan-presidency-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-11T20:20:21.773070Z", "published_at": "2022-05-12T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10928, "title": "Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-05-11T20:20:21.773070Z", "open_time": "2022-05-12T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-14T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-14T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-21T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Gotabaya Rajapaksa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotabaya_Rajapaksa) has been the President of Sri Lanka since November 2019. Rajapaksa is a member of the [Rajapaksa family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajapaksa_family), a prominent family which has held significant influence in Sri Lankan politics.\n\nInflation in Sri Lanka has increased to [30% in April 2022](https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/inflation-cpi), and federal debt was 101% of national GDP [in 2020](https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/government-debt-to-gdp). A January 2020 poll by [Verite Research](http://bizenglish.adaderana.lk/only-10-approve-the-way-current-government-is-working-survey-reveals/) found only 10% of Sri Lankan adults approved of the current government. [National protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Sri_Lankan_protests) since March 2022 have demanded Rajapaksa's resignation, which the government responded to with curfews, a state of emergency, and [censorship of social media sites](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60962185).\n\nOn May 9, Gotabaya's brother Mahinda Rajapaksa [resigned](https://twitter.com/PresRajapaksa/status/1523627066465288194) from the office of Prime Minister.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, beginning at any time between May 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, Gotabaya Rajapaksa does not hold the office of President of Sri Lanka for a period of 7 days or more. Rajapaksa will be recognized as the President if over 50% of the [Parliament of Sri Lanka](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Sri_Lanka) recognizes him as the President, or if any branch of the [Sri Lankan Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lanka_Armed_Forces) (army, navy, or air force) recognize him as the Supreme Commander of their branch", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10928, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658406030.442111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658406030.442111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.967728943174799 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005292742945254508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008008874097028448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8434803121450322, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0039108374539705, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005367575538696657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011765554197740741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012023428955703545, 0.0, 0.009362710949132512, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.700708557421292 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.20210645231367325, "coverage": 0.30077144235583453, "baseline_score": 11.279008414174491, "spot_peer_score": -13.781109258578049, "peer_archived_score": 0.20210645231367325, "baseline_archived_score": 11.279008414174491, "spot_peer_archived_score": -13.781109258578049 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658406030.468658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658406030.468658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01535194726448652, 0.9846480527355135 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Gotabaya Rajapaksa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gotabaya_Rajapaksa) has been the President of Sri Lanka since November 2019. Rajapaksa is a member of the [Rajapaksa family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajapaksa_family), a prominent family which has held significant influence in Sri Lankan politics.\n\nInflation in Sri Lanka has increased to [30% in April 2022](https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/inflation-cpi), and federal debt was 101% of national GDP [in 2020](https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/government-debt-to-gdp). A January 2020 poll by [Verite Research](http://bizenglish.adaderana.lk/only-10-approve-the-way-current-government-is-working-survey-reveals/) found only 10% of Sri Lankan adults approved of the current government. [National protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Sri_Lankan_protests) since March 2022 have demanded Rajapaksa's resignation, which the government responded to with curfews, a state of emergency, and [censorship of social media sites](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60962185).\n\nOn May 9, Gotabaya's brother Mahinda Rajapaksa [resigned](https://twitter.com/PresRajapaksa/status/1523627066465288194) from the office of Prime Minister." }, { "id": 10919, "title": "Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Johnny Depp Film Contract", "url_title": "Johnny Depp Film Contract", "slug": "johnny-depp-film-contract", "author_id": 103095, "author_username": "xodarap", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-09T22:49:43.958088Z", "published_at": "2022-05-16T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.472138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-16T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:56:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 169, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10919, "title": "Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2022-05-09T22:49:43.958088Z", "open_time": "2022-05-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-17T03:48:39.744051Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-17T03:48:39.744051Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Johnny Depp is a multiple award-winning actor, [who resigned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Depp#2012%E2%80%932020:_Career_setbacks) from his most recent role in 2018 after public allegations of domestic abuse. He has not received a role in any film produced by major studio since then, which he attributes to this allegation. He has initiated a [defamation lawsuit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depp_v._Heard) against his former wife Amber Heard, denying the allegations of abuse, [describing himself](https://deadline.com/2021/09/johnny-depp-cancel-culture-so-far-out-of-hand-no-one-is-safe-asks-people-to-stand-up-against-injustice-1234842145/) as a victim of cancel culture.\n\nPublic opinion has generally supported Depp, with Buzzfeed [reporting](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ikrd/milani-cosmetics-tiktok-about-johnny-depp-and-amber-heard) that videos tagged with #JusticeForJohnnyDepp have received 200 times more views than those tagged #JusticeForAmberHeard.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, \"major film studio\" is defined as one of the five major studio conglomerates listed on [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_film_studios#Present), and film contract is defined as: \"a paid contract to physically or voice act in a film which is described as \"feature-length\", planned to be released in movie theaters, or is at least 90 minutes long; or, a Metaculus moderator believes it likely that one of these criteria will be met, if the evidence is ambiguous. The contract must require Johnny Depp to have new recordings (as opposed to repurchasing existing work).\"\n\nThis question will resolve positive if it is publicly reported that Depp has signed a contract with one of the studios by January 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704002121.364212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704002121.364212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04290414469236691 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.903344153501738, 8.300882460603676, 1.7486071599147963, 0.753367907721587, 0.27381568284994984, 0.5617107536242942, 0.4587262839578863, 0.19355698603442437, 0.28474685262274935, 0.07732843866674621, 0.5865295256869657, 0.29659372226994135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13487367060214592, 0.08111304189303857, 0.0, 0.21437363447185484, 0.16719858294055195, 0.4686835966426494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029802380101125594, 0.1624830209481702, 0.08610071748774789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07006076908082186, 0.06349138907135984, 0.008618978121146146, 0.0, 0.04502645543556653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03671241546185856, 0.0, 0.014624813872558364, 0.0, 0.03486230083185543, 0.0008384796748391694, 0.026804956076009214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011328650710602263, 5.3398797027241596e-05, 0.0002915462896206782, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1148702063730683e-05, 0.0003703802096066938, 0.0, 0.018589149954608027, 0.0033968182447653844, 0.027385749743519396, 0.01829378491292501, 0.0, 0.0040191484527977075, 0.02041600379596655, 0.026454107932801896, 0.03847989075694294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033198543139316574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014747610510642342, 0.010318155899307005, 0.009210570886835277, 0.009155722941891304, 0.012703937769501912, 0.0, 0.0018514316625997916, 0.008090705476476796, 0.006737946999085467, 0.02476288254089761, 0.002336348771810745, 0.0, 0.019824745834326474, 0.049131367273099996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025945755710905225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051112553518656366 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 30.683099381254184, "coverage": 0.9999948898722237, "baseline_score": -74.19076562005596, "spot_peer_score": 14.004884414193329, "peer_archived_score": 30.683099381254184, "baseline_archived_score": -74.19076562005596, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.004884414193329 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008333.21272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008333.21272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 655, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Johnny Depp is a multiple award-winning actor, [who resigned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Depp#2012%E2%80%932020:_Career_setbacks) from his most recent role in 2018 after public allegations of domestic abuse. He has not received a role in any film produced by major studio since then, which he attributes to this allegation. He has initiated a [defamation lawsuit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depp_v._Heard) against his former wife Amber Heard, denying the allegations of abuse, [describing himself](https://deadline.com/2021/09/johnny-depp-cancel-culture-so-far-out-of-hand-no-one-is-safe-asks-people-to-stand-up-against-injustice-1234842145/) as a victim of cancel culture.\n\nPublic opinion has generally supported Depp, with Buzzfeed [reporting](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ikrd/milani-cosmetics-tiktok-about-johnny-depp-and-amber-heard) that videos tagged with #JusticeForJohnnyDepp have received 200 times more views than those tagged #JusticeForAmberHeard." }, { "id": 10875, "title": "Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?", "short_title": "OPT-175B Weights Released by Meta", "url_title": "OPT-175B Weights Released by Meta", "slug": "opt-175b-weights-released-by-meta", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], 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Texas be overturned by 2030?", "created_at": "2022-05-05T22:43:29.570999Z", "open_time": "2022-05-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-11T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-11T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Lawrence v. 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10865, "title": "Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-05T10:49:33.712661Z", "open_time": "2022-05-07T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-07T19:57:04.629877Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-07T19:57:04.629877Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T23:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T23:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-01T23:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-31T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US and Ukrainian officials have said that Russia could declare formal war on Ukraine as soon as 9 May 2022. [(CNN report)](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) A formal declaration of war is necessary under Russian law for a general mobilization of Russian society under a wartime footing, which would allow Russia's military to draft conscripts and reserves en masse, in order to solve its current manpower shortages.\n\nAccording to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the U.S. Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), \"Without a national mobilization, the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces.\" [(Source)](https://english.nv.ua/nation/experts-assess-the-future-of-russia-s-push-towards-the-donbas-50237049.html) (See also \"War on the Rocks\" podcast discussion [here](https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia publicly announces that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine, before August 1, 2022.\n\n\"Ukraine\" is defined as the state within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, led by the Ukrainian government recognized by the European Union. This declaration of war language is understood to include any and all euphemisms such as \"the Kyiv regime,\" subject to the judgment of the Metaculus admins. \n\n\"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.\n\nThe absence of any such announcement will resolve this question as \"no\" on July 31, 2022.\n\nThe Metaculus admins determine resolution of this question and have sole discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10865, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659297012.853423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659297012.853423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03523631740250993 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 27.25359607187481, 0.4553672759376024, 0.7562313244887711, 1.0712055229575337, 1.7495182588389973, 0.06313030692228908, 0.0018690790799899084, 0.035898365579865914, 0.008079513817155118, 0.0892665636633374, 1.3221213439196541e-05, 0.1307693193869893, 0.004201402353039349, 0.012552244554754916, 0.27717191021071963, 0.0025690333135700754, 0.0009495294911919398, 0.016594593842555298, 0.006726071690795662, 0.004053833117400309, 0.0, 0.03431703386414673, 0.0022470001613905605, 0.004322757297313423, 0.009822612258022077, 0.0007290029017710396, 3.965587999869387e-06, 0.00020735274183058825, 0.0, 0.006332116881677461, 0.0, 3.5938984241946476e-05, 0.00010396770963462923, 0.0, 6.252319547019695e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2806564209820804e-06, 0.0, 0.0002284867348076837, 1.2060781459158008e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 4.396470693378745e-06, 0.00011483763438336698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.643205361819514e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.6189112742980524e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9714091725889985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.575867579203672e-06, 0.0, 1.7892966655253743e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.544657414355865e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1108379455164075e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.023701466924753e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.438604726568366e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.467693147548463, "coverage": 0.9999613582611875, "baseline_score": 86.37311673003978, "spot_peer_score": 60.87085565377861, "peer_archived_score": 16.467693147548463, "baseline_archived_score": 86.37311673003978, "spot_peer_archived_score": 60.87085565377861 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659297012.888453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659297012.888453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 297, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 873, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US and Ukrainian officials have said that Russia could declare formal war on Ukraine as soon as 9 May 2022. [(CNN report)](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/europe/russia-ukraine-declaration-of-war-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) A formal declaration of war is necessary under Russian law for a general mobilization of Russian society under a wartime footing, which would allow Russia's military to draft conscripts and reserves en masse, in order to solve its current manpower shortages.\n\nAccording to Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the U.S. Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), \"Without a national mobilization, the Donbas is the last major offensive the Russian military can attempt given the current state and availability of forces.\" [(Source)](https://english.nv.ua/nation/experts-assess-the-future-of-russia-s-push-towards-the-donbas-50237049.html) (See also \"War on the Rocks\" podcast discussion [here](https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/).)" }, { "id": 10858, "title": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?", "short_title": "Russians in Kyiv question resolves ambiguous", "url_title": "Russians in Kyiv question resolves ambiguous", "slug": "russians-in-kyiv-question-resolves-ambiguous", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-05T03:18:43.565593Z", "published_at": "2022-05-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.396108Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-08T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-31T15:54:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10858, "title": "Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?", "created_at": "2022-05-05T03:18:43.565593Z", "open_time": "2022-05-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-09T03:32:31.589632Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-09T03:32:31.589632Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-31T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-31T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T15:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) asked \"at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government.\" The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia [withdrew](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-assesses-russia-completes-withdrawal-around-kyiv-us-defense-official-2022-04-06/) from Kyiv. [Several](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-88639) [commenters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91270) have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have [discussed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91467) [whether](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91325) an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have [also](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91466) [suggested](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91414) that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative.", "resolution_criteria": "If [the Russian troops question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) resolves ambiguously before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve positively. If the Russian troops question resolves positively or negatively before 2030-01-01, or if the Russian troops question is not resolved at all before 2030-01-01, this question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10858, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653955642.330006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653955642.330006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5492915820772319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3974384712996953, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.4297942925074501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2845126830959424, 1.5452981592703114, 0.160831023763914, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.10111441089353605, 0.8456151362805138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5488907210198609, "coverage": 0.09851034464009956, "baseline_score": -0.5361762007090647, "spot_peer_score": 33.7625252496531, "peer_archived_score": 0.5488907210198609, "baseline_archived_score": -0.5361762007090647, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.7625252496531 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653982923.385554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653982923.385554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6320635080178192, 0.3679364919821808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/) asked \"at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government.\" The community prediction jumped to 99% in late February shortly after the invasion, when there was a widespread belief that Russia would attack Kyiv and did not drop from 99% until the second half of March. The community mean began dropping around the beginning of April, as Russia [withdrew](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-assesses-russia-completes-withdrawal-around-kyiv-us-defense-official-2022-04-06/) from Kyiv. [Several](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-88639) [commenters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91270) have discussed whether or not there were enough Russian incursions into Kyiv at the start of the invasion to resolve the question as yes. Commenters have [discussed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91467) [whether](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91325) an ambiguous resolution is appropriate, if the size of the early incursions cannot be ascertained. They have [also](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91466) [suggested](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-91414) that forthcoming reports might allow for an unambiguous resolution of the question, whether positive or negative." }, { "id": 10851, "title": "Will Norway join the EU before 2035?", "short_title": "Norway Joins EU Before 2035", "url_title": "Norway Joins EU Before 2035", "slug": "norway-joins-eu-before-2035", "author_id": 122119, "author_username": "andrmoe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-04T20:31:50.074713Z", "published_at": "2022-05-09T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T09:26:56.213773Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-09T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-09T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10851, "title": "Will Norway join the EU before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-05-04T20:31:50.074713Z", "open_time": "2022-05-09T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-11T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-11T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Norway is a member of the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), but not a member of the EU. Norway held two referrendums on whether to join the EU, in [1972](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Norwegian_European_Communities_membership_referendum) and in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum), which were rejected by 53.5% and 52.2% of the vote, respectively.\n\nFollowing the war in Ukraine, the Conservative Party (Høyre) has [renewed their interest](https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/politikk/i/47AmOE/landsmoetet-vedtok-eu-debatten-erna-solberg-ikke-ville-ha) in an EU membership referendum, saying \"Norwegian EU membership has now become more important than ever\". Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) leader Rasmus Hansson [is also in favor](https://www.nrk.no/norge/mdg-topper-vil-ha-norge-med-i-eu-_-ber-partiet-om-ja-til-folkeavstemning-1.15945601), saying the Green Party \"will be a driving force for this debate to start in Norwegian society\".\n\n[An April 2022 poll](https://www.oa.no/maling-en-av-fem-er-usikker-pa-norsk-eu-medlemskap/s/5-35-1512579) by Norstat for Vårt Land asked respondents \"do you want Norway to become a member of the EU?\"; 53% answered \"no\", 26% answered \"yes\", and 21% were unsure. A March 2022 poll by Klassekampen og Nationen also found 54% in opposition, with 34% in favor of EU membership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If Norway is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between May 1, 2022 to Jaunary 1, 2035. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. Norway must officially begin its membership during this period; an announcement or promise of future membership will not suffice", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10851, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763026005.635622, "end_time": 1763719112.594705, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763026005.635622, "end_time": 1763719112.594705, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.28866922806973666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25337160349891247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680152107693573, 0.0, 0.3357641570916088, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4795195014099374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.813400521254308, 0.05385505242225807, 2.5072161271936118, 0.5011495311528927, 0.9413760306912168, 0.2906730883457752, 1.0, 0.5227547258119849, 0.7832008404886415, 0.0, 0.5365810335942545, 0.0, 0.44964563797939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15190552663999388, 0.011871193631835357, 0.27073254535969177, 0.005832286250484877, 0.1873107517960373, 0.029055163380813716, 0.007887135632217103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.040363406176698174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08410645441221705, 0.04045340951854798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09451726668843609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021612403177388988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18761293738011062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8098849193375297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.835423333262448 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286948.499879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286948.499879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8735241001600104, 0.12647589983998966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Norway is a member of the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), but not a member of the EU. Norway held two referrendums on whether to join the EU, in [1972](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Norwegian_European_Communities_membership_referendum) and in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum), which were rejected by 53.5% and 52.2% of the vote, respectively.\n\nFollowing the war in Ukraine, the Conservative Party (Høyre) has [renewed their interest](https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/politikk/i/47AmOE/landsmoetet-vedtok-eu-debatten-erna-solberg-ikke-ville-ha) in an EU membership referendum, saying \"Norwegian EU membership has now become more important than ever\". Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) leader Rasmus Hansson [is also in favor](https://www.nrk.no/norge/mdg-topper-vil-ha-norge-med-i-eu-_-ber-partiet-om-ja-til-folkeavstemning-1.15945601), saying the Green Party \"will be a driving force for this debate to start in Norwegian society\".\n\n[An April 2022 poll](https://www.oa.no/maling-en-av-fem-er-usikker-pa-norsk-eu-medlemskap/s/5-35-1512579) by Norstat for Vårt Land asked respondents \"do you want Norway to become a member of the EU?\"; 53% answered \"no\", 26% answered \"yes\", and 21% were unsure. A March 2022 poll by Klassekampen og Nationen also found 54% in opposition, with 34% in favor of EU membership." }, { "id": 10845, "title": "Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "short_title": "Will Russia Declare War by May 9, 2022?", "url_title": "Will Russia Declare War by May 9, 2022?", "slug": "will-russia-declare-war-by-may-9-2022", "author_id": 124884, "author_username": "satisficer", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-05-03T11:51:33.208444Z", "published_at": "2022-05-05T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.715971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-05T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-08T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-08T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:25:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-05T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10845, "title": "Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-05-03T11:51:33.208444Z", "open_time": "2022-05-05T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-05T23:24:44.245583Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-05T23:24:44.245583Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-10T16:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-10T16:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-08T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-08T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_conducting_a_special_military_operation#:~:text=%22On%20conducting%20a%20special%20military,before%20the%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine) a \"Special Military Operation\" in Ukraine. Western officials, including [UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace](https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-war-ukraine-ben-wallace-lightning-strikes/), have suggested that Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, enabling the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. May 9, known as [\"Victory Day,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_Day_(9_May)) commemorates Russia's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Putin may leverage its symbolic significance to rally the Russian public and announce a major escalation of hostilities.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if the following conditions are met:\n\n1. Three credible media sources report that Russian President Vladimir Putin, or another representative of the Russian government, has officially announced that Russia is at war with Ukraine or that Russia is preparing to declare war on Ukraine.\n\n2. The Russian announcement occurs no later than 11:59 PM (Moscow Standard Time) on May 9, 2022.\n\n\n\"Credible media\" for purposes of this question is defined as major media outlets with a high circulation and reputation for credibility in their news departments. Examples of such outlets include Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Deutsche Welle, AP, Fox, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Politico, and international newspapers such as the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times.\n\nRelated question: [By July 31, 2022, will Russia formally announce that a state of war exists between it and Ukraine?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10865/russian-declaration-of-war-on-ukraine-2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10845, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652039515.493311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652039515.493311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21997312276010042 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.44980516859887093, 0.02124456642863366, 0.0, 0.0006735119318073969, 0.3452503033212, 0.0, 0.5949564880916366, 0.8432034700683188, 0.018671480208927997, 2.8757676639311227, 0.37350438370184075, 0.08320267210751756, 0.4294499980551371, 0.044249993944614804, 0.41873404926224445, 0.5647527335958825, 0.2823890133960171, 0.55100838240132, 1.4781320005348944, 2.0823414124469855, 0.0, 0.012678714084501608, 0.3604769448910894, 0.8796123708766752, 3.4228109830233064, 0.0, 0.1077520356714806, 0.1607464417007161, 0.0, 0.5703005885382173, 0.0, 0.10227388238849859, 1.0542765539106036, 0.0, 1.3276126626034284, 0.47086131558959615, 0.005201649187378189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19648904614559665, 0.39137132281768017, 0.22024554869721588, 0.0, 0.022643194955098478, 0.8002266015744657, 0.0, 0.14098220637340647, 0.0, 0.0, 9.979284736472126e-05, 0.00023751518508458963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01532010874981921, 0.0034758932254840076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033607910621851984, 0.052649112212281184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014325626213677098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037758065654080897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.56899712642487, "coverage": 0.9992605673480297, "baseline_score": 57.91197659303495, "spot_peer_score": 13.093254917157374, "peer_archived_score": 9.56899712642487, "baseline_archived_score": 57.91197659303495, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.093254917157374 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652039515.522171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652039515.522171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9327449591563574, 0.06725504084364267 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_conducting_a_special_military_operation#:~:text=%22On%20conducting%20a%20special%20military,before%20the%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine) a \"Special Military Operation\" in Ukraine. Western officials, including [UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace](https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russia-war-ukraine-ben-wallace-lightning-strikes/), have suggested that Putin could formally declare war on Ukraine as soon as May 9, enabling the full mobilization of Russia's reserve forces. May 9, known as [\"Victory Day,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_Day_(9_May)) commemorates Russia's victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Putin may leverage its symbolic significance to rally the Russian public and announce a major escalation of hostilities." }, { "id": 10834, "title": "Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?", "short_title": "Affirmative Action Banned in US by 2035", "url_title": "Affirmative Action Banned in US by 2035", "slug": "affirmative-action-banned-in-us-by-2035", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-29T22:32:50.766418Z", "published_at": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:25:31.557123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10834, "title": "Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-04-29T22:32:50.766418Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-04T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Affirmative Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action) describes policies in a variety of contexts where individuals from certain groups or backgrounds are given preferential weight or treatment, such as in employment applications or school admissions. The term comes from US President John F. Kennedy, writing an [Executive Order in 1961](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-10925-establishing-the-presidents-committee-equal-employment-opportunity): \"The contractor will not discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment because of race, creed, color, or national origin. The contractor will take **affirmative action** to ensure that applicants are employed, and that employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin.\" Proponents of affirmative action see such policies as means to address previous discrimination or harms, or as a way to remove bias in a selection process.\n\nThe topic is controversial in the United States, and polling shows conflicting beliefs: [Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/352832/americans-confidence-racial-fairness-waning.aspx) found that 47% of Americans supported affirmative action policies for racial minorities in 2001, with that share growing to 62% in 2021, while [Pew polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/26/u-s-public-continues-to-view-grades-test-scores-as-top-factors-in-college-admissions/) in 2022 found 74% of respondents thought that race should not be a factor in the college admission process.\n\nAs of April 2022, [9 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) ban affirmative action.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, over half of US states generally ban discrimination and giving preferential treatment to groups or individuals on the basis of race, in decisions on public employment. This question may also resolve as **Yes** if such a ban is effective on the federal level, or if affirmative action is ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, discrimination or preferential treatment on the basis of other attributes or membership to a [protected discrimination group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protected_group) is not relevant to the question's resolution. Affirmative Action in regards to public education decisions is also not relevant to the question's resolution. Any ban on affirmative action will qualify if it applies in the majority of cases; for example, a ban may include an exception that it shall not prohibit \"bona fide qualifications based on sex which are reasonably necessary to the normal operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting. \"\n\nThe District of Columbia will be considered a state for the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 10834, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762016806.474161, "end_time": 1766798563.196063, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762016806.474161, "end_time": 1766798563.196063, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5002558567148487 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287503.337107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287503.337107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6950089690480207, 0.3049910309519793 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Affirmative Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action) describes policies in a variety of contexts where individuals from certain groups or backgrounds are given preferential weight or treatment, such as in employment applications or school admissions. The term comes from US President John F. Kennedy, writing an [Executive Order in 1961](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-10925-establishing-the-presidents-committee-equal-employment-opportunity): \"The contractor will not discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment because of race, creed, color, or national origin. The contractor will take **affirmative action** to ensure that applicants are employed, and that employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin.\" Proponents of affirmative action see such policies as means to address previous discrimination or harms, or as a way to remove bias in a selection process.\n\nThe topic is controversial in the United States, and polling shows conflicting beliefs: [Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/352832/americans-confidence-racial-fairness-waning.aspx) found that 47% of Americans supported affirmative action policies for racial minorities in 2001, with that share growing to 62% in 2021, while [Pew polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/26/u-s-public-continues-to-view-grades-test-scores-as-top-factors-in-college-admissions/) in 2022 found 74% of respondents thought that race should not be a factor in the college admission process.\n\nAs of April 2022, [9 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) ban affirmative action." }, { "id": 10833, "title": "Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?", "short_title": "Pakistan Debt Default in 2022", "url_title": "Pakistan Debt Default in 2022", "slug": "pakistan-debt-default-in-2022", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-29T22:25:18.989469Z", "published_at": "2022-05-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.375961Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10833, "title": "Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-29T22:25:18.989469Z", "open_time": "2022-05-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-10T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-10T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan \"bet his country's economy on getting Chinese aid through the Belt & Road initiative\", according to VC [Aziz Gilani](https://twitter.com/TexasVC). Gilani explains:\n\n> To keep his Chinese overlords happy, he [ignored rampant human trafficking of child brides from Pakistan to China](https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-pakistan-international-news-weekend-reads-lahore-c586d0f73fe249718ec06f6867b0244e), and [Muslim genocide](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/pakistan-imran-khan-china-uighurs). In January, his advisors determined that the only way to prevent a sovereign default was to find a way to [rollover $3B worth of loans Pakistan owed China](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2341112/islamabad-eyes-3b-loan-from-beijing). In February he participated in a lavish four-day red-carpet visit in which he seems to have gotten some kind of assurance that the Chinese loans would be rolled over. In any case, Pakistan paid the $3B to China on March 20th, and never got a loan back. On March 25th, the State Bank of Pakistan tried to calm down creditors claiming that fresh Chinese loans were on the way. They never arrived. \n\n\nAfter [attempting to dissolve parliament](https://www.ft.com/content/8b1707a5-29ff-49b6-85f3-0ce2e86529f9), he was removed from office [via a parliamentary vote of no confidence on April 9](https://www.dawn.com/news/1684168/imran-khan-loses-no-trust-vote-prime-ministerial-term-comes-to-unceremonious-end). \n\nThere are [growing concerns](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/political-turmoil-in-pakistan-seen-deepening-bond-rupee-losses) surrounding Pakistani default risk, with Bloomberg [reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/pakistan-s-government-needs-imf-bailout-fast-to-stave-off-crisis) that \"Pakistan’s 5-year default risk is near the highest [it's been] since 2013.\" Bloomberg continues:\n\n> With just enough foreign reserves to cover two months of imports, the clock is ticking on new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to fund a financing gap. The nation faces a funding requirement of $14.1 billion for January-June alone, more than the central bank’s $11.3 billion in reserves, according to Bloomberg Economics.\n\n> The fear that it would tumble into a profound economic and financial crisis -- much like what happened to Sri Lanka -- has sent its five-year credit-default swaps to the highest since 2013 even after political stability was restored with the ouster of Imran Khan. \n\nFurther, according to a [Fitch Ratings April 12, 2022](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/pakistans-political-volatility-adds-to-external-financing-risk-12-04-2022) report:\n\n> Pakistan faces USD20 billion in external debt repayments in FY23, though this includes USD7 billion in Chinese and Saudi deposits that we expect to be rolled over. Higher trade deficits and capital outflows have driven a sharp depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. This, along with debt repayments, has put pressure on liquid foreign-exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which fell by USD5.1 billion between end-February and 1 April 2022, to USD11.3 billion. We believe the decline also partly reflects repayment of a USD2.4 billion loan from China that is slated to be renewed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before 00:00 Eastern on 1 January 2023, the [State Bank of Pakistan](https://www.sbp.org.pk/) announces that Pakistan has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Pakistan has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Pakistan has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:\n\n- BBC News\n- Associated Press\n- Reuters\n- Wall Street Journal\n- Financial Time", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10833, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672514387.057093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.017126541091462423 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672514387.057093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.017126541091462423 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04254918354203359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.482330125423445, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5088248968973696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.031223319598590725, 0.17574376900921154, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -3.4614732849611944, "coverage": 0.9952402013293525, "baseline_score": 16.896590628960976, "spot_peer_score": 0.5934735519814381, "peer_archived_score": -3.4614732849611944, "baseline_archived_score": 16.896590628960976, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5934735519814381 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672514387.070835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672514387.070835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan \"bet his country's economy on getting Chinese aid through the Belt & Road initiative\", according to VC [Aziz Gilani](https://twitter.com/TexasVC). Gilani explains:\n\n> To keep his Chinese overlords happy, he [ignored rampant human trafficking of child brides from Pakistan to China](https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news-pakistan-international-news-weekend-reads-lahore-c586d0f73fe249718ec06f6867b0244e), and [Muslim genocide](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/pakistan-imran-khan-china-uighurs). In January, his advisors determined that the only way to prevent a sovereign default was to find a way to [rollover $3B worth of loans Pakistan owed China](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2341112/islamabad-eyes-3b-loan-from-beijing). In February he participated in a lavish four-day red-carpet visit in which he seems to have gotten some kind of assurance that the Chinese loans would be rolled over. In any case, Pakistan paid the $3B to China on March 20th, and never got a loan back. On March 25th, the State Bank of Pakistan tried to calm down creditors claiming that fresh Chinese loans were on the way. They never arrived. \n\n\nAfter [attempting to dissolve parliament](https://www.ft.com/content/8b1707a5-29ff-49b6-85f3-0ce2e86529f9), he was removed from office [via a parliamentary vote of no confidence on April 9](https://www.dawn.com/news/1684168/imran-khan-loses-no-trust-vote-prime-ministerial-term-comes-to-unceremonious-end). \n\nThere are [growing concerns](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/political-turmoil-in-pakistan-seen-deepening-bond-rupee-losses) surrounding Pakistani default risk, with Bloomberg [reporting](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/pakistan-s-government-needs-imf-bailout-fast-to-stave-off-crisis) that \"Pakistan’s 5-year default risk is near the highest [it's been] since 2013.\" Bloomberg continues:\n\n> With just enough foreign reserves to cover two months of imports, the clock is ticking on new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to fund a financing gap. The nation faces a funding requirement of $14.1 billion for January-June alone, more than the central bank’s $11.3 billion in reserves, according to Bloomberg Economics.\n\n> The fear that it would tumble into a profound economic and financial crisis -- much like what happened to Sri Lanka -- has sent its five-year credit-default swaps to the highest since 2013 even after political stability was restored with the ouster of Imran Khan. \n\nFurther, according to a [Fitch Ratings April 12, 2022](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/pakistans-political-volatility-adds-to-external-financing-risk-12-04-2022) report:\n\n> Pakistan faces USD20 billion in external debt repayments in FY23, though this includes USD7 billion in Chinese and Saudi deposits that we expect to be rolled over. Higher trade deficits and capital outflows have driven a sharp depreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. This, along with debt repayments, has put pressure on liquid foreign-exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which fell by USD5.1 billion between end-February and 1 April 2022, to USD11.3 billion. We believe the decline also partly reflects repayment of a USD2.4 billion loan from China that is slated to be renewed." }, { "id": 10832, "title": "Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?", "url_title": "Donald Trump Incarceration by 2030?", "slug": "donald-trump-incarceration-by-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-29T18:39:58.835172Z", "published_at": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:41:23.917474Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 204, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 804, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10832, "title": "Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-04-29T18:39:58.835172Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-04T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/) *[closed]*\n\n----\n\nFormer US President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has been involved in a large number of [lawsuits and legal investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump), either personally or in connection to his businesses. As President, Trump was investigated by the US Department of Justice in the [Mueller Investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%932019)). Trump was impeached (but not convicted) by US congress twice, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump) and later [in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump). Trump's involvement in the January 6 2021 [attack on the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_States_Capitol_attack) is the subject of [an investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Select_Committee_on_the_January_6_Attack) in the US House which is ongoing as of April 2022.\n\nTrump has publicly expressed his intention of running for president in 2024 multiple times, [saying in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"You had a president that always put America first [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, Donald J. Trump is held in custody in a US jail or prison. Trump must be in custody for a period of 30 days or longer; this period must begin before January 1, 2030 to qualify for a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10832, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763567111.619251, "end_time": 1764975090.839887, "forecaster_count": 463, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763567111.619251, "end_time": 1764975090.839887, "forecaster_count": 463, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08126166980080195 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.070394353732684, 7.534126267218162, 5.639756706780247, 1.5321827753446586, 0.33853731627902395, 2.3924111607279017, 0.09658303929235001, 0.12184152600996041, 1.8328656964124033, 0.059585918682699544, 1.276910222786643, 0.0038924544018771835, 0.8317509344855413, 0.00283499079551374, 0.0, 0.5208887045703114, 3.162870390543101e-05, 0.0014289644694715688, 1.2459156768036616e-08, 0.005697360014230879, 0.32824509982864924, 0.0, 0.47490464758828144, 0.0006723279014936321, 0.00332579515032977, 0.05220039574119449, 0.0, 0.0, 6.617640015344165e-06, 0.0, 0.041523001205142684, 0.00025990503781915406, 0.00397897951513624, 0.0003229401728499576, 2.6882263808373785e-05, 0.9338184682950192, 7.130251504497949e-05, 3.9868077289073234e-07, 0.00010500067413325939, 0.0, 0.0005149895447155489, 9.420982547327034e-05, 0.0024172956440993896, 3.878365824980173e-05, 0.025813344505957226, 0.0003148149574693854, 5.6522681024707095e-06, 4.8662472114848696e-05, 2.1693653784487367e-07, 1.3249664649888815e-05, 0.017535049507241204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013531372611757503, 0.00013004504059829723, 0.0003531306630894647, 8.296287072907116e-05, 8.038893458295857e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033775083296108347, 5.404084619592399e-05, 0.0, 2.831627658891218e-05, 0.0, 0.0003446066932317777, 5.618434327200961e-06, 8.986381740059707e-05, 0.0, 2.7617751787833944e-06, 2.340393818638141e-05, 0.13253886950669103, 0.0013636455763130582, 0.0, 0.7067147648362294, 0.0006405287157928123, 0.0, 0.0, 6.487211391597568e-05, 0.0, 0.0004101570379962545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.810477137165451, 0.002369075095355535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18862364413504665, 0.5164477399131974, 0.000860323971641067, 0.00012006962266482047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02348912897474 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287939.445878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 652, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287939.445878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 652, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9560601322911075, 0.04393986770889252 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2734, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/) *[closed]*\n\n----\n\nFormer US President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has been involved in a large number of [lawsuits and legal investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump), either personally or in connection to his businesses. As President, Trump was investigated by the US Department of Justice in the [Mueller Investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%932019)). Trump was impeached (but not convicted) by US congress twice, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump) and later [in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump). Trump's involvement in the January 6 2021 [attack on the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_States_Capitol_attack) is the subject of [an investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Select_Committee_on_the_January_6_Attack) in the US House which is ongoing as of April 2022.\n\nTrump has publicly expressed his intention of running for president in 2024 multiple times, [saying in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"You had a president that always put America first [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before.\"" }, { "id": 10831, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?", "short_title": "Zelenskyy Wins Nobel Peace Prize by 2024", "url_title": "Zelenskyy Wins Nobel Peace Prize by 2024", "slug": "zelenskyy-wins-nobel-peace-prize-by-2024", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-29T03:53:50.666736Z", "published_at": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.697986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-06T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-06T09:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10831, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-29T03:53:50.666736Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-02T17:29:17.024126Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-02T17:29:17.024126Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-06T09:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-06T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-06T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*About the Potential Recipient*: [Volodymr Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically ([English Wikipedia pageviews](https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&redirects=0&start=2021-01-28&end=2022-04-28&pages=Volodymyr_Zelenskyy), [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fm%2F0w4j2z1)) Sentiment in Europe and the United States has been broadly positive. Examples:\n\n* [Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy tops POLITICO 28 poll as most powerful person in Europe](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-europe-most-powerful-person-politico28-2022-poll/) (survey from early March 2022)\n\n* [Two thirds of Britons have a favourable opinion of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/17/what-do-britons-think-ukrainian-president-volodymy) (YouGov survey, mid-March 2022)\n\n* [Zelenskyy inspires widespread confidence from U.S. public as views of Putin hit new low](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/30/zelenskyy-inspires-widespread-confidence-from-u-s-public-as-views-of-putin-hit-new-low/) (Pew survey, mid/late March)\n\n*About the Prize*: [Wikipedia summarizes the award process as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize#Award_process):\n\n> Nomination forms are sent by the Nobel Committee to about 3,000 individuals, usually in September the year before the prizes are awarded. These individuals are generally prominent academics working in a relevant area. Regarding the Peace Prize, inquiries are also sent to governments, former Peace Prize laureates, and current or former members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The deadline for the return of the nomination forms is 31 January of the year of the award. The Nobel Committee nominates about 300 potential laureates from these forms and additional names. The nominees are not publicly named, nor are they told that they are being considered for the prize. All nomination records for a prize are sealed for 50 years from the awarding of the prize.\n\nNote that this implies that the deadline for nomination for the 2022 award passed before the invasion began.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is announced as the sole or joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2022 or 2023.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution does not require Zelenskyy to accept the prize, nor does it require him to survive until the prize is awarded. Note that [while the Prize cannot be *announced* for a person who has died, it can still be awarded posthumously to someone who dies after announcement but before collection](https://www.nobelprize.org/frequently-asked-questions/#posthumously).\n\nIf no Nobel Peace Prizes are awarded for either the years 2022 or 2023, this question will resolve as \"**ambiguous**\". If any such prizes are delayed to be awarded later than January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as \"**ambiguous**\".", "post_id": 10831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696812351.62239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696812351.62239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.034208127642500225 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.606869258401835, 13.209602687225134, 1.0243139798126086, 0.4321172084927348, 0.2089942420399328, 0.38529342499120656, 0.048542218890801264, 0.24062569908153297, 0.06442861704920574, 0.07246346837463662, 0.43744477144665367, 0.001096546370591183, 0.03299872260473513, 0.062039742771811776, 0.010047243527637417, 0.645565409564119, 0.027730844188652484, 8.9093865357825e-06, 0.00029389823956637413, 1.9379766126762723e-05, 0.7111960001630554, 0.0, 0.2581637339860426, 0.0, 0.00011487482649545446, 0.01906799600308552, 0.05262493628964872, 0.0, 0.001143139590985983, 0.0, 0.003802250951860656, 0.0, 0.06379168769183341, 0.0005300450019709023, 0.0, 2.5321696803091698e-05, 0.7562608172652965, 0.0, 0.0025828007420838992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4516748524759441e-05, 0.009979418072860914, 0.0, 0.0, 4.927078621265274e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005919796286679613, 0.005165466629877892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.064432276579418e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.891046961388441e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015588806508001693, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.966325524408123, "coverage": 0.8593698863506637, "baseline_score": 65.71212006375994, "spot_peer_score": -16.601265662808288, "peer_archived_score": 7.966325524408123, "baseline_archived_score": 65.71212006375994, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.601265662808288 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696464799.751551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696464799.751551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9974379407186346, 0.0025620592813654086 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 469, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*About the Potential Recipient*: [Volodymr Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) became president of Ukraine in 2019. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and global attention to Zelenskyy increased dramatically ([English Wikipedia pageviews](https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&redirects=0&start=2021-01-28&end=2022-04-28&pages=Volodymyr_Zelenskyy), [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=%2Fm%2F0w4j2z1)) Sentiment in Europe and the United States has been broadly positive. Examples:\n\n* [Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy tops POLITICO 28 poll as most powerful person in Europe](https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-europe-most-powerful-person-politico28-2022-poll/) (survey from early March 2022)\n\n* [Two thirds of Britons have a favourable opinion of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/17/what-do-britons-think-ukrainian-president-volodymy) (YouGov survey, mid-March 2022)\n\n* [Zelenskyy inspires widespread confidence from U.S. public as views of Putin hit new low](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/30/zelenskyy-inspires-widespread-confidence-from-u-s-public-as-views-of-putin-hit-new-low/) (Pew survey, mid/late March)\n\n*About the Prize*: [Wikipedia summarizes the award process as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize#Award_process):\n\n> Nomination forms are sent by the Nobel Committee to about 3,000 individuals, usually in September the year before the prizes are awarded. These individuals are generally prominent academics working in a relevant area. Regarding the Peace Prize, inquiries are also sent to governments, former Peace Prize laureates, and current or former members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The deadline for the return of the nomination forms is 31 January of the year of the award. The Nobel Committee nominates about 300 potential laureates from these forms and additional names. The nominees are not publicly named, nor are they told that they are being considered for the prize. All nomination records for a prize are sealed for 50 years from the awarding of the prize.\n\nNote that this implies that the deadline for nomination for the 2022 award passed before the invasion began." }, { "id": 10829, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?", "short_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >2,000 by 7-22", "url_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >2,000 by 7-22", "slug": "va-covid-hospitalizations-2000-by-7-22", "author_id": 119055, "author_username": "srinivv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:33.693467Z", "published_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.711138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! This is a follow-on to the recently completed and highly successful Virginia Lightning Round Tournament. This tournament will consist of COVID-19 related questions written in conjunction with the University of Virginia to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open. You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10829, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:33.693467Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 2000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to July 22, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the [Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/) will be used as the definitive source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653060567.790308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653060567.790308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.19786617396606904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.26243788290678444, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.23814444671793047, 0.2048007347763379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.20549066020331952, 1.4045381580880687, 1.7137428063428364, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0872043543161052, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.00624333010388, "coverage": 0.9913697368744927, "baseline_score": 77.7955723111817, "spot_peer_score": 26.718324840069794, "peer_archived_score": 9.00624333010388, "baseline_archived_score": 77.7955723111817, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.718324840069794 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653060567.814809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653060567.814809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9376129670780757, 0.06238703292192423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." } ] }
