Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4180
{ "count": 6389, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4160", "results": [ { "id": 10828, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?", "short_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >1,000 by 7-22", "url_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >1,000 by 7-22", "slug": "va-covid-hospitalizations-1000-by-7-22", "author_id": 119055, "author_username": "srinivv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:14.141577Z", "published_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.889986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T18:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T18:10:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! This is a follow-on to the recently completed and highly successful Virginia Lightning Round Tournament. This tournament will consist of COVID-19 related questions written in conjunction with the University of Virginia to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open. You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10828, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:14.141577Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T18:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-27T18:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-27T18:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to July 22, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the [Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/) will be used as the definitive source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10828, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653060245.502844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653060245.502844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.4591852329571596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1636796789713562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37976074371459123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 1.16128155269333, 0.44642635295403355, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.682871731373737, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.7264519876018953, "coverage": 0.9913586462863326, "baseline_score": 33.1170519025577, "spot_peer_score": -3.001342706453279, "peer_archived_score": -1.7264519876018953, "baseline_archived_score": 33.1170519025577, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.001342706453279 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653060245.521261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653060245.521261, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6418146461584331, 0.35818535384156686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." }, { "id": 10827, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?", "short_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >1,000 by 6-10", "url_title": "VA COVID Hospitalizations >1,000 by 6-10", "slug": "va-covid-hospitalizations-1000-by-6-10", "author_id": 119055, "author_username": "srinivv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:07.560370Z", "published_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.923657Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-15T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! This is a follow-on to the recently completed and highly successful Virginia Lightning Round Tournament. This tournament will consist of COVID-19 related questions written in conjunction with the University of Virginia to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open. You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10827, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:55:07.560370Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-15T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 1000 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). 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You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2971, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 9", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-21T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.975062Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:31.470060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10826, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-28T14:51:24.810598Z", "open_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-08T15:59:59.222400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-04T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have begun [increasing](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the decline of the Omicron BA.1 wave. \n\nAs of April 27th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [181](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 29, 2022 to June 10, 2022 (inclusive). 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The latter makes it possible to finance militarism, the repressive apparatus and to corrupt politicians in Europe and around the world.\n\n>All three of these forces will weaken and collapse sharply in the coming months and years as a result of Russia's prolonged military defeat in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the rapid development of electric mobility.\n\n>Russia's military and repressive forces are bleeding in Ukraine, Russia's great chauvinism will be deadly, and a rapid drop in oil and gas sales combined with further sanctions will destroy the Kremlin economically and prevent it from further bribing political elites inside Russia and abroad.\n\n>[...] the attack on Ukraine radically accelerated the development of events - so **the collapse of Russia becomes a matter of the next 3-5 years.**\n\nMesík predicted as a result of this collapse that Russia would lose control over many regions in current territorial disputes, such as Ukraine's Crimean peninsula or the breakaway states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 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This period of lost control must persist for at least 30 consecutive days.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, Russia will be considered to have control of the Crimean Peninsula, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Kuril Islands, included with their internationally recognized territory as of January 1, 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763323666.785831, "end_time": 1763911249.976081, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763323666.785831, "end_time": 1763911249.976081, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018827633400235553 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.09100215634562, 3.746054114693198, 3.3531063878461795, 0.9627970136789405, 0.0, 0.8901152053247479, 0.42976928852254315, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15045047261877945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010028489695676875 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289190.883905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289190.883905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991677163280601, 0.0008322836719399028 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 417, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the [Slovak Foreign Policy Association](https://www.sfpa.sk/en/) [predicted](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/experts/2022/04/7/7137272/) that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):\n\n>Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the security apparatus (Cheka - NKVD - KGB - FSB) and oil and gas revenues. The latter makes it possible to finance militarism, the repressive apparatus and to corrupt politicians in Europe and around the world.\n\n>All three of these forces will weaken and collapse sharply in the coming months and years as a result of Russia's prolonged military defeat in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the rapid development of electric mobility.\n\n>Russia's military and repressive forces are bleeding in Ukraine, Russia's great chauvinism will be deadly, and a rapid drop in oil and gas sales combined with further sanctions will destroy the Kremlin economically and prevent it from further bribing political elites inside Russia and abroad.\n\n>[...] the attack on Ukraine radically accelerated the development of events - so **the collapse of Russia becomes a matter of the next 3-5 years.**\n\nMesík predicted as a result of this collapse that Russia would lose control over many regions in current territorial disputes, such as Ukraine's Crimean peninsula or the breakaway states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Mesík further speculated about a potential fragmentation of Russia's far east." }, { "id": 10807, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected President in the next Ukrainian elections?", "short_title": "Zelenskyy President of Ukraine Re-election", "url_title": "Zelenskyy President of Ukraine Re-election", "slug": "zelenskyy-president-of-ukraine-re-election", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-27T16:48:01.004459Z", "published_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.489168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 270, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10807, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected President in the next Ukrainian elections?", "created_at": "2022-04-27T16:48:01.004459Z", "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-28T16:32:57.615000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-28T16:32:57.615000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) (Ukrainian: Володимир Олександрович Зеленський) was [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election) President of Ukraine on April 21, 2019. Despite having no prior political experience, he defeated the incumbent Petro Poroshenko with 73% of the popular vote.\n\nWhile Zelenskyy held a moderate lead over the competition in [opinion polls during 2020 to 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election), in the first poll held after [the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Zelenskyy had the support of 81% of respondents.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the next Ukrainian Presidential election following the [April 21, 2019 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election), Volodymyr Zelenskyy is re-elected as President of Ukraine. This question will resolve as **No** if an opposing candidate wins, if Zelenskyy chooses not to run, is deceased, or is otherwise unable to participate.\n\nElections are [currently scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_Ukrainian_presidential_election) for March 31, 2024, according to the Constitution of Ukraine. In the event that elections are rescheduled, this question will pertain to the next presidential election after April 21, 2019. If no such election is held by December 31, 2029, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" will be defined as a state which holds over 50% of [territory held by Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) on January 1, 2014, and whose political capitol is in the same territory.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the \"President of Ukraine\" will be the democratically-elected chief executive of Ukraine, even if such an office is not called the \"presidency\".", "post_id": 10807, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711564147.662662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711564147.662662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6014531943554613 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.26730634821671084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005506761245163684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130528158938166, 0.0, 0.0, 4.412197996722974e-05, 0.0, 0.8756291127400047, 0.0, 5.0859127907427944e-06, 0.8070239083618875, 2.489795639604624e-05, 0.5899600008754606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021040580177415464, 0.6912191745315701, 0.0, 0.11558598342346676, 0.0, 0.3200499618986199, 0.0, 0.4181545383590506, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1764463758256721, 0.21610037084210593, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9483589865147235e-05, 0.424856287194687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7824989730879669, 0.0, 0.06127138740970675, 0.0, 0.7355320025827377, 1.2335080776754923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06829288843591713, 0.0, 1.7490686215207694, 0.20674100569632697, 0.5378213312596292, 0.0, 0.09108083431937439, 0.6993686639762793, 0.1517209526168375, 1.6194211743854772, 1.13839231538786, 0.14346787321825377, 2.0345798061385194, 0.059000685504738165, 4.162753033401318e-05, 0.11669410929230674, 0.7634789964536886, 2.589929692054816, 0.08446878682181462, 0.7920307610173869, 0.01740324072726134, 0.008125673299793879, 1.7489354691143686, 0.3767440152250378, 0.0, 0.00020538860687546555, 0.31663057076742684, 1.0798141525065252, 0.3518196278249479, 0.0200876646312874, 0.006539317516958054, 0.3024321562751597, 1.8233074481007079, 0.0025002358382821143, 0.0061314635863346945, 0.00316817846450569, 0.004906589250215662, 0.8075863382707331, 0.04384418409755956, 0.00781769230243494, 0.0012514243408636213, 0.0001215143447873442, 0.28227526491340826, 0.16028336045784988, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6935119156764855 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711785420.170235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711785420.170235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47557639489180203, 0.524423605108198 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 727, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) (Ukrainian: Володимир Олександрович Зеленський) was [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election) President of Ukraine on April 21, 2019. Despite having no prior political experience, he defeated the incumbent Petro Poroshenko with 73% of the popular vote.\n\nWhile Zelenskyy held a moderate lead over the competition in [opinion polls during 2020 to 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Ukrainian_presidential_election), in the first poll held after [the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Zelenskyy had the support of 81% of respondents." }, { "id": 10806, "title": "Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?", "short_title": "Ukraine Joins Russian Union State before 2040", "url_title": "Ukraine Joins Russian Union State before 2040", "slug": "ukraine-joins-russian-union-state-before-2040", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-27T16:32:27.985033Z", "published_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T07:43:50.318061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 149, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10806, "title": "Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?", "created_at": "2022-04-27T16:32:27.985033Z", "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-30T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-30T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in respective countries, have an integrated military, and have policies to promote economic integration and some coordinated tax policies. From 2004 to 2008, there were some negotiations to adopt a common currency, which did not come to pass.\n\nDavid R. Cameron, writing for the [Yale MacMillan Center](https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/russia-belarus-develop-their-union-state-hold-huge-military-exercise-russia-goes-polls), suggests the Union State is an attempt to put the USSR back together.\n\nDuring the buildup to the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko [predicted in an interview](https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272272379/lukashenko-predicts-when-ukraine-could-join-union-state-with-russia) that Ukraine would eventually join the Union State, saying \"If you say 15 years, I'm sure that Ukraine will be there if we don't make any mistakes\". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky [said in 2021](https://rubryka.com/2021/05/31/zelenskyj-zayavyv-shho-spravzhnya-soyuzna-derzhava-rosiyi-ta-bilorusi-ye-zagrozoyu-dlya-ukrayiny/) that a \"true Union State\" was a real danger to Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the government of Ukraine formally joins the Union State of Russia and Belarus, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040. Membership in the Union State must be sustained for at least 365 days. Official statements by Ukraine and Union State officials will be used for resolution.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" will be defined as a state which controls over 50% of [territory held by Ukraine on January 1, 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine), and whose political capital city is within the same territory.", "post_id": 10806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762688671.399024, "end_time": 1765844110.261168, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762688671.399024, "end_time": 1765844110.261168, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.09369100709348181 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1378182938447385, 5.456046041442515, 2.262227716984904, 4.114398793166024, 0.7879232283615635, 1.8530903625689727, 0.19810659419617985, 1.4565631162269685, 0.0012065737433445013, 0.0, 0.5347993028307345, 0.7705174518040254, 0.001160085226559878, 0.0021512107333080182, 0.0, 0.859145690382488, 0.0, 0.08138889344253086, 0.0, 0.011412372941223005, 0.006400485399592712, 0.17916374728389856, 0.0, 3.69946786383205e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01495437243218068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868188239580991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006834988728375071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34128848006970325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5004884144491898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5895395136180334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005429947567341769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025745106825191253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18912422106318935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03643132943719727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006259066299000493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33478046929941496 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286909.527361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286909.527361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9866235352811226, 0.013376464718877433 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 380, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in respective countries, have an integrated military, and have policies to promote economic integration and some coordinated tax policies. From 2004 to 2008, there were some negotiations to adopt a common currency, which did not come to pass.\n\nDavid R. Cameron, writing for the [Yale MacMillan Center](https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/russia-belarus-develop-their-union-state-hold-huge-military-exercise-russia-goes-polls), suggests the Union State is an attempt to put the USSR back together.\n\nDuring the buildup to the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko [predicted in an interview](https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272272379/lukashenko-predicts-when-ukraine-could-join-union-state-with-russia) that Ukraine would eventually join the Union State, saying \"If you say 15 years, I'm sure that Ukraine will be there if we don't make any mistakes\". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky [said in 2021](https://rubryka.com/2021/05/31/zelenskyj-zayavyv-shho-spravzhnya-soyuzna-derzhava-rosiyi-ta-bilorusi-ye-zagrozoyu-dlya-ukrayiny/) that a \"true Union State\" was a real danger to Ukraine." }, { "id": 10797, "title": "Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?", "short_title": "Chinese Military Base in the Solomon Islands", "url_title": "Chinese Military Base in the Solomon Islands", "slug": "chinese-military-base-in-the-solomon-islands", "author_id": 123419, "author_username": "Prodicus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-26T06:44:06.972544Z", "published_at": "2023-02-28T13:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T00:12:20.162466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-28T13:56:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-28T13:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10797, "title": "Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?", "created_at": "2022-04-26T06:44:06.972544Z", "open_time": "2023-02-28T13:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-02T07:23:02.821507Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-02T07:23:02.821507Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the Chinese Government [signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands](https://time.com/6168173/solomon-islands-china-security-pact/).\n\nCertain governments, most especially Australia, but also the United States, have concerns that this pact will lead to [a full Chinese military base in the region](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/us-wont-rule-out-military-action-if-china-establishes-base-in-solomon-islands).\n\n>One of the most senior US officials in the Pacific has refused to rule out military action against Solomon Islands if it were to allow China to establish a military base there, saying that the security deal between the countries presented “potential regional security implications” for the US and other allies.\n\n>Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was part of a high-level US delegation to the Pacific country last week.\n\nThe fact that one of China's state-owned organizations had previously tried to [lease the entire Island of Tulagi](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/25/solomons-government-vetoes-chinese-attempt-to-lease-an-island), which hosts a deep-water harbor, also implies the possibility of Chinese interests in that direction.\n\nOn the other hand, the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands has [has promised the Australian Government that such a base will never be situated there](https://apnews.com/article/china-australia-canberra-solomon-islands-government-and-politics-0ac755c18daa8e6fb81579d2216dfc63).\n\n>Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare made his first visit to the Australian capital Canberra since his counterpart Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor Party came to power at elections in May.\n\n>“Prime minister, I reiterate again that Solomon Islands will never be used for foreign military installations or institutions of foreign countries, because this will not be in the interest of Solomon Islands and its people,” Sogavare told Albanese in front of reporters before their meeting began in Parliament House.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2032 any of the following three conditions below occur:\n\n1) The governments of China or the Solomon Islands publicly announce that a Chinese military base has been agreed upon and will begin construction before 2032.\n\n2) At least one [credible media source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports that the Solomon Islands host over 1000 Chinese soldiers.\n\n3) At least three [credible media sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) describe China's military presence on the Solomon Islands as a military base", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762339213.5778, "end_time": 1769633396.091575, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.259 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762339213.5778, "end_time": 1769633396.091575, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.259 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.741, 0.259 ], "means": [ 0.3026183165511554 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289467.598187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289467.598187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8505217976657248, 0.1494782023342752 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the Chinese Government [signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands](https://time.com/6168173/solomon-islands-china-security-pact/).\n\nCertain governments, most especially Australia, but also the United States, have concerns that this pact will lead to [a full Chinese military base in the region](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/us-wont-rule-out-military-action-if-china-establishes-base-in-solomon-islands).\n\n>One of the most senior US officials in the Pacific has refused to rule out military action against Solomon Islands if it were to allow China to establish a military base there, saying that the security deal between the countries presented “potential regional security implications” for the US and other allies.\n\n>Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was part of a high-level US delegation to the Pacific country last week.\n\nThe fact that one of China's state-owned organizations had previously tried to [lease the entire Island of Tulagi](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/25/solomons-government-vetoes-chinese-attempt-to-lease-an-island), which hosts a deep-water harbor, also implies the possibility of Chinese interests in that direction.\n\nOn the other hand, the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands has [has promised the Australian Government that such a base will never be situated there](https://apnews.com/article/china-australia-canberra-solomon-islands-government-and-politics-0ac755c18daa8e6fb81579d2216dfc63).\n\n>Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare made his first visit to the Australian capital Canberra since his counterpart Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor Party came to power at elections in May.\n\n>“Prime minister, I reiterate again that Solomon Islands will never be used for foreign military installations or institutions of foreign countries, because this will not be in the interest of Solomon Islands and its people,” Sogavare told Albanese in front of reporters before their meeting began in Parliament House." }, { "id": 10791, "title": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?", "short_title": "Pediatric Hepatitis Linked to Vaccine 2022", "url_title": "Pediatric Hepatitis Linked to Vaccine 2022", "slug": "pediatric-hepatitis-linked-to-vaccine-2022", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-24T12:02:46.681194Z", "published_at": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.962089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:43:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10791, "title": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?", "created_at": "2022-04-24T12:02:46.681194Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-26T19:18:17.035320Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-26T19:18:17.035320Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T16:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T16:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe [hepatitis](https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/abc/index.htm) in young children in which the cause is of [unknown](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) origin.\n\nIn an outbreak [report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/multi-country-acute-severe-hepatitis-of-unknown-origin-in-children) on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.\n\nThe United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April [according](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/increase-in-hepatitis-liver-inflammation-cases-in-children-under-investigation) to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for [adenovirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenoviridae). None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine. \n\nIn the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus [according](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2022/han00462.asp) to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is [known](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/8/2/42/htm) to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.\n\nCurrently the [leading hypothesis](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have [emphasized](https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/23/who-says-12-countries-have-reported-unusual-cases-of-hepatitis-in-kids/) that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. [Other hypotheses](https://www.science.org/content/article/mysterious-hepatitis-outbreak-sickens-young-children-europe-cdc-probes-cases-alabama) include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin. Some have [suggested](https://twitter.com/DrHirschfield/status/1515432706368315395) COVID vaccination may be a cause and a recent [paper](https://www.mdpi.com/1467-3045/44/3/73/htm?s=09) has found that mRNA vaccine can enter a human liver cell line in vitro: \"Our results indicate a fast up-take of BNT162b2 into human liver cell line Huh7, leading to changes in LINE-1 expression and distribution.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve on the basis of research findings/government reports. The systematic review (either peer-reviewed or a pre-print deemed credible by Metaculus) or statement by the [WHO](https://www.who.int/), [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/), [UK HSA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency), or [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) that is most recent as of 1 April 2023 and which conclusively identifies the causative agent will be considered. If the causative agent is COVID vaccination, then this resolves positive.\n\nIf as of 1 April 2023 there is no systematic review or statement by the [WHO](https://www.who.int/), [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/), [UK HSA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency), or [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) that identifies the causative agent, then Metaculus will conduct a review of all relevant published papers available as of 1 April 2023 that can be found via Google Scholar and that attempt to identify the causative agent. If at least 85% of these published papers claim a statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful association between severe pediatric hepatitis and COVID vaccination, then this will resolve positive. \n\nCOVID vaccination need not be the only cause of severe pediatric hepatitis, it just needs to be a main cause. e.g.: if cases of severe pediatric hepatitis are conclusively linked to some interaction between adenovirus infection and COVID vaccination, but not to either one of these on their own, then this will resolve positive.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10787/pediatric-hepatitis-linked-to-adenovirus/) question on whether pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin will be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680249700.938823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680249700.938823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01990729458189708 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.591156443888659, 8.310907031616473, 0.741602830598636, 1.1075782341131464, 0.0, 0.17437356477574598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6334492553858364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01313726468048236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31433791509644904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051070591364816675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006118496811426084 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.498043085660244, "coverage": 0.9997355863463745, "baseline_score": 96.02207895814836, "spot_peer_score": 1.3405680733990835, "peer_archived_score": 13.498043085660244, "baseline_archived_score": 96.02207895814836, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.3405680733990835 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680249700.960408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680249700.960408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 198, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe [hepatitis](https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/abc/index.htm) in young children in which the cause is of [unknown](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) origin.\n\nIn an outbreak [report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/multi-country-acute-severe-hepatitis-of-unknown-origin-in-children) on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.\n\nThe United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April [according](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/increase-in-hepatitis-liver-inflammation-cases-in-children-under-investigation) to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for [adenovirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenoviridae). None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine. \n\nIn the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus [according](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2022/han00462.asp) to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is [known](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/8/2/42/htm) to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.\n\nCurrently the [leading hypothesis](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have [emphasized](https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/23/who-says-12-countries-have-reported-unusual-cases-of-hepatitis-in-kids/) that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. [Other hypotheses](https://www.science.org/content/article/mysterious-hepatitis-outbreak-sickens-young-children-europe-cdc-probes-cases-alabama) include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin. Some have [suggested](https://twitter.com/DrHirschfield/status/1515432706368315395) COVID vaccination may be a cause and a recent [paper](https://www.mdpi.com/1467-3045/44/3/73/htm?s=09) has found that mRNA vaccine can enter a human liver cell line in vitro: \"Our results indicate a fast up-take of BNT162b2 into human liver cell line Huh7, leading to changes in LINE-1 expression and distribution.\"" }, { "id": 10790, "title": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Control of Dnipro on June 1, 2023", "url_title": "Russian Control of Dnipro on June 1, 2023", "slug": "russian-control-of-dnipro-on-june-1-2023", "author_id": 126556, "author_username": "alex121981", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-24T10:45:48.430912Z", "published_at": "2022-04-27T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.169067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-27T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Dnipro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) experienced its [first missile attack](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-03-11-intl/index.html) in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. Former NATO commander in Europe, Wesley Clark [said on CNN](https://www.newsweek.com/putin-plans-envelopment-ukraine-forces-holding-back-separatists-clark-1694578) on April 3, 2022, \"[...] the Russians are north and south of Dnipro. Dnipro is going to be the next key objective. If they can drive to Dnipro they'll cut off the Ukrainian forces that are holding back the separatists in the Donbas.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if more than 50% of [Dnipro's raions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro#Subdivisions) are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2023.\n\nTo determine the extent of Russian control, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant sources, including government intelligence statements and credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685565282.747762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 320, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685565282.747762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 320, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013194727445760484 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.766489057671771, 16.114277239493884, 0.5718268977318833, 0.11428300370089055, 0.02566317676273939, 0.6106713431015343, 0.001358074863323309, 0.08573844541167304, 0.0024059007222449738, 4.779191398639252e-05, 0.09629595042878841, 0.0, 0.0062048950482300564, 0.036961454780951, 0.09462726607194388, 0.16058642722453811, 0.0005824674166981891, 0.0, 0.0007042353122758137, 0.0, 0.0027730412547050465, 0.04706870925295942, 3.235605494315546e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4413270346099564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08095772542224917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005551684512048157, 0.005738130843857786, 0.0, 2.880543396545417e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002492932176518876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009116786798293175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000322410165151627, 0.0, 0.00021292667764170764, 0.0, 1.971986822277746e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001384355668384919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009548218382272663 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.055592970918468, "coverage": 0.9997161260410039, "baseline_score": 93.27495153792879, "spot_peer_score": 15.685602821899577, "peer_archived_score": 11.055592970918468, "baseline_archived_score": 93.27495153792879, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.685602821899577 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685565282.782365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 320, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685565282.782365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 320, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 720, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Dnipro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) experienced its [first missile attack](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-03-11-intl/index.html) in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. Former NATO commander in Europe, Wesley Clark [said on CNN](https://www.newsweek.com/putin-plans-envelopment-ukraine-forces-holding-back-separatists-clark-1694578) on April 3, 2022, \"[...] the Russians are north and south of Dnipro. Dnipro is going to be the next key objective. If they can drive to Dnipro they'll cut off the Ukrainian forces that are holding back the separatists in the Donbas.\"" }, { "id": 10789, "title": "Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?", "short_title": "Will Andrej Babiš Wins Czech Election 2023?", "url_title": "Will Andrej Babiš Wins Czech Election 2023?", "slug": "will-andrej-babis-wins-czech-election-2023", "author_id": 117464, "author_username": "Bristol_OPT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-24T09:19:04.363760Z", "published_at": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.477726Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-28T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-28T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10789, "title": "Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?", "created_at": "2022-04-24T09:19:04.363760Z", "open_time": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-28T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-28T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-28T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-28T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023. The incumbent president Miloš Zeman is not eligible to run for another term, and the election will most likely be direct. [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Czech_presidential_election) The date of the election will be announced by the President of the Senate no later than 90 days before the election. [2](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volba_prezidenta_%C4%8Cesk%C3%A9_republiky_2023)\n\nAndrej Babiš is a Czech politician and businessman who served as the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as the Minister of Finance and deputy Prime Minister from 2014 to 2017 in Bohuslav Sobotka's Cabinet. He has been founding leader of the party ANO 2011 (ANO) since 2012. Babiš lost his re-election bid to premiership in the 2021 election and with no path to majority in the Chamber of Deputies he conceded to Petr Fiala, who succeeded Babiš as Prime Minister on 17 December 2021. [3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrej_Babi%C5%A1) Babiš is currently leading [opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Czech_presidential_election) on the election for the Czech presidency.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if at least three major media sources announce the elections are concluded and Andrej Babiš is a victor. In case of ambiguity between the media sources, the internet pages of the [Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic](https://www.mvcr.cz/mvcren) shall be used. If no president is elected by March 8 2023, the question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675028975.91312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675028975.91312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029412812502111432 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.952187467987082, 5.03519184308562, 0.5686629601322946, 0.0, 0.12174039221355969, 0.8294145189590072, 0.6510523163745665, 0.4100089642821704, 0.9072843624765938, 0.0, 0.01697402178992476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06562619069267198, 0.037641050859089434, 0.07113353320870651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04275638681322495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020482295148019, 0.017493306870160354, 0.03300920416665456, 0.0, 0.09181393811527672, 0.005819522702150025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14085966230613312, 0.10487932907659522, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.06079914726750241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04803691883837447, 0.0, 0.01851424336049953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.008883492639763636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.466990348499206, "coverage": 0.9810134752993197, "baseline_score": 9.25107524989245, "spot_peer_score": 3.163708494318271, "peer_archived_score": 7.466990348499206, "baseline_archived_score": 9.25107524989245, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.163708494318271 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674819145.168547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674819145.168547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9868780991141404, 0.01312190088585968 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 300, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic no later than January 2023. The incumbent president Miloš Zeman is not eligible to run for another term, and the election will most likely be direct. [1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Czech_presidential_election) The date of the election will be announced by the President of the Senate no later than 90 days before the election. [2](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volba_prezidenta_%C4%8Cesk%C3%A9_republiky_2023)\n\nAndrej Babiš is a Czech politician and businessman who served as the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as the Minister of Finance and deputy Prime Minister from 2014 to 2017 in Bohuslav Sobotka's Cabinet. He has been founding leader of the party ANO 2011 (ANO) since 2012. Babiš lost his re-election bid to premiership in the 2021 election and with no path to majority in the Chamber of Deputies he conceded to Petr Fiala, who succeeded Babiš as Prime Minister on 17 December 2021. [3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrej_Babi%C5%A1) Babiš is currently leading [opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Czech_presidential_election) on the election for the Czech presidency." }, { "id": 10788, "title": "Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?", "short_title": "David Segal Wins RI-2 Primary", "url_title": "David Segal Wins RI-2 Primary", "slug": "david-segal-wins-ri-2-primary", "author_id": 109983, "author_username": "CullenOKeefe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-23T23:49:09.491279Z", "published_at": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.418469Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-13T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-13T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10788, "title": "Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?", "created_at": "2022-04-23T23:49:09.491279Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-16T14:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-16T14:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-09-13T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-13T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[David Segal](https://www.davidsegalri.com/) is running as a Democrat for Congress in Rhode Island's 2nd District. The primary will take place on [13 September 2022](https://elections.ri.gov/elections/upcoming/index.php).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if David Segal is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district according to a consensus of credible media reports. If there are conflicting race calls, this question will resolve upon results by the Rhode Island Secretary of State", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10788, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663031726.645468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663031726.645468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.15118728964213285 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2209743585101691, 1.1666327809233616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.961700060276395, 0.0, 0.7819944923022631, 0.7369079814443238, 0.08496097501576635, 1.2637744484093432, 0.039003561466750214, 1.51704954314802, 0.7443249659535239, 0.0, 0.7775378880356267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7965517069063007, 0.0, 0.9277858371259815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38150119878791605, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011922239002325093, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8988393848901519, "coverage": 0.9968424592994137, "baseline_score": 18.843728230921784, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.8988393848901519, "baseline_archived_score": 18.843728230921784, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1663031726.666681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1663031726.666681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9783495039342993, 0.021650496065700728 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[David Segal](https://www.davidsegalri.com/) is running as a Democrat for Congress in Rhode Island's 2nd District. The primary will take place on [13 September 2022](https://elections.ri.gov/elections/upcoming/index.php)." }, { "id": 10787, "title": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?", "short_title": "Pediatric Hepatitis Linked to Adenovirus 2022", "url_title": "Pediatric Hepatitis Linked to Adenovirus 2022", "slug": "pediatric-hepatitis-linked-to-adenovirus-2022", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-23T20:34:54.956208Z", "published_at": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.320572Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-30T11:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-30T11:44:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10787, "title": "Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?", "created_at": "2022-04-23T20:34:54.956208Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-28T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-30T11:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-30T11:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-30T11:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe [hepatitis](https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/abc/index.htm) in young children in which the cause is of [unknown](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) origin.\n\nIn an outbreak [report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/multi-country-acute-severe-hepatitis-of-unknown-origin-in-children) on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.\n\nThe United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April [according](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/increase-in-hepatitis-liver-inflammation-cases-in-children-under-investigation) to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for [adenovirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenoviridae). None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine. \n\nIn the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus [according](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2022/han00462.asp) to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is [known](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/8/2/42/htm) to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.\n\nCurrently the [leading hypothesis](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have [emphasized](https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/23/who-says-12-countries-have-reported-unusual-cases-of-hepatitis-in-kids/) that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. [Other hypotheses](https://www.science.org/content/article/mysterious-hepatitis-outbreak-sickens-young-children-europe-cdc-probes-cases-alabama) include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve on the basis of research findings/government reports. The systematic review (either peer-reviewed or a pre-print deemed credible by Metaculus) or statement by the [WHO](https://www.who.int/), [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/), [UK HSA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency), or [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) that is most recent as of 1 April 2023 and which conclusively identifies the causative agent will be considered. If the causative agent is adenovirus infection, then this resolves positive.\n\nIf as of 1 April 2023 there is no systematic review or statement by the [WHO](https://www.who.int/), [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/), [UK HSA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-health-security-agency), or [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) that identifies the causative agent, then Metaculus will conduct a review of all relevant published papers available as of 1 April 2023 that can be found via Google Scholar and that attempt to identify the causative agent. If at least 85% of these published papers claim a statistically significant and/or clinically meaningful association between severe pediatric hepatitis and infection with adenovirus, then this will resolve positive. \n\nAn adenovirus need not be the only cause of severe pediatric hepatitis, it just needs to be a main cause. e.g.: if cases of severe pediatric hepatitis are conclusively linked to some interaction between COVID and adenovirus 41, but not to either one of these on their own, then this will resolve positive.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10791/pediatric-hepatitis-linked-to-covid-vaccine/) question on whether pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin will be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10787, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680270742.308699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.499 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680270742.308699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.499 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5478934423949924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8125285206161335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6392481672365632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 1.9300205187794963, 1.493495759948635, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0, 0.34863586814696435, 0.0, 0.7445660976288506, 1.471043189343415, 0.3061620984667782, 0.0, 0.5049957670217226, 0.13236454315438945, 0.0, 0.5284084087081079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27911271937314186, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.4333980909177004, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.3952632697996375, 0.0, 0.053493066571363594, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08212664145904872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08316944346847108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8642672445783581 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.407745587306103, "coverage": 0.9959477238819308, "baseline_score": 39.74316263567275, "spot_peer_score": 12.009455916966086, "peer_archived_score": 23.407745587306103, "baseline_archived_score": 39.74316263567275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.009455916966086 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1679903880.214887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1679903880.214887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46789586304452524, 0.5321041369554748 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent months there have been dozens of reported cases of severe [hepatitis](https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/abc/index.htm) in young children in which the cause is of [unknown](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) origin.\n\nIn an outbreak [report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/multi-country-acute-severe-hepatitis-of-unknown-origin-in-children) on 23 April, the World Health Organization stated that 12 countries have reported at least 169 cases of hepatitis of unknown origin in children. The age range of cases is 1 month to 16 years old. Seventeen of the children have undergone liver transplants and at least one has died. None of the viruses that cause acute viral hepatitis (hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D and E) have been detected in any of the 169 cases.\n\nThe United Kingdom has had the greatest number of reported cases so far, with 108 cases as of 21 April [according](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/increase-in-hepatitis-liver-inflammation-cases-in-children-under-investigation) to the UK Health Security Agency. 77% of cases have tested positive for [adenovirus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenoviridae). None of the confirmed cases is known to have received a COVID vaccine. \n\nIn the United States, the state of Alabama was the first to report cases. All nine of the reported cases have tested positive for adenovirus [according](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2022/han00462.asp) to the U.S. CDC. Five of these were sequenced, and adenovirus type 41 infection was identified in all five. Adenovirus type 41 is [known](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/8/2/42/htm) to commonly cause pediatric acute gastroenteritis, but is not known to be a cause of hepatitis in otherwise healthy children.\n\nCurrently the [leading hypothesis](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200318) for the causative agent involves adenovirus, with either an already-circulating variant severely impacting immunologically naive young children or there being a new variant with a more severe clinical profile. The former may be the result of less social mixing during the COVID pandemic. However, public health officials have [emphasized](https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/23/who-says-12-countries-have-reported-unusual-cases-of-hepatitis-in-kids/) that other hypotheses have not been ruled out. [Other hypotheses](https://www.science.org/content/article/mysterious-hepatitis-outbreak-sickens-young-children-europe-cdc-probes-cases-alabama) include COVID infection or an unidentified toxin." }, { "id": 10768, "title": "Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?", "short_title": "Kuril Islands Lost by Russia by 2028", "url_title": "Kuril Islands Lost by Russia by 2028", "slug": "kuril-islands-lost-by-russia-by-2028", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:29:34.345934Z", "published_at": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T22:45:53.915871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T13:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10768, "title": "Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:29:34.345934Z", "open_time": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:39:49.414671Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:39:49.414671Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T13:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T13:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Kuril Islands Dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their competing claims over the Kuril Islands.\n\nAlthough attempts at a peace agreement have been pursued by both parties through the 2010s, the [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) escalated animosity between Japan and Russia. In [March 2022](https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7650538/japan-renews-island-dispute-with-russia/) Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi re-affirmed the Japanese claim to the Kuril Islands. Later in March, Russian armed forces [performed military drills](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/c0868f95954a-russia-starts-military-drill-on-disputed-islands-off-japan.html) with 3,000 personnel in the Kuril Islands area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, Russia or Russia-aligned governments control fewer than half of the [Kuril Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands). This may occur if the majority of the Kuriles are under Japanese control, if they are independent states, if they are under control of any non-Russian-aligned government, or if some combination of these scenarios obtains for the majority of the islands. Whoever controls the islands, their control must be sustained for at least 30 days. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, the Kuril Islands shall consist of\n\n* [Iturup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iturup)\n\n* [Kunashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunashir)\n\n* [Shikotan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikotan)\n\n* [the Habomai Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habomai_Islands)\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**yes**\" if Russia and Russia-aligned governments control fewer than 2 of the above 4 islands (the Habomai Islands will be considered as a single entity).\n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763592343.230364, "end_time": 1763927459.305002, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763592343.230364, "end_time": 1763927459.305002, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01809207608386315 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.253270625510604, 4.673302353783549, 0.7304209970083941, 0.12670356407303568, 0.848390712889754, 0.08804604135286782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288314.002727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288314.002727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986490071858856, 0.0013509928141144662 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 214, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Kuril Islands Dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their competing claims over the Kuril Islands.\n\nAlthough attempts at a peace agreement have been pursued by both parties through the 2010s, the [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) escalated animosity between Japan and Russia. In [March 2022](https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7650538/japan-renews-island-dispute-with-russia/) Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi re-affirmed the Japanese claim to the Kuril Islands. Later in March, Russian armed forces [performed military drills](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/c0868f95954a-russia-starts-military-drill-on-disputed-islands-off-japan.html) with 3,000 personnel in the Kuril Islands area." }, { "id": 10767, "title": "Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?", "short_title": "Moldova Controls Transnistria before 2028", "url_title": "Moldova Controls Transnistria before 2028", "slug": "moldova-controls-transnistria-before-2028", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:18:46.623343Z", "published_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:23:16.210368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10767, "title": "Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:18:46.623343Z", "open_time": "2022-04-28T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-29T16:04:46.428851Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-29T16:04:46.428851Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) (PMR, also known as Transnistria) is an unrecognized state on the border of Moldova and Ukraine. All UN nations, including Russia, formally consider Transnistrian territory to be part of Moldova. Russia does maintain a [consulate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Transnistria_relations) in Transnistria, as well as an [ongoing military presence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_presence_in_Transnistria). Moldova has repeatedly asked for the removal of Russian troops, including as recently as [September 2021](https://romania.europalibera.org/a/maia-sandu-republica-moldova-onu/31473107.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2028, Moldova controls more than half of the territory of Transnistria (according to de facto borders on January 1, 2022). Control must be sustained for at least 30 days. \n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies.\n\nPeriods in which Transnistria is under Moldovan control, but the de facto government of Moldova is reported to be Russian-aligned by multiple such credible sources, will not trigger \"Yes\" resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763479408.299649, "end_time": 1763888934.489691, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763479408.299649, "end_time": 1763888934.489691, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2782714775802747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 1.4016748404299517, 0.11446582056621712, 0.7899839106380127, 0.07369964090399271, 0.0, 0.7574093918869736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511459123085843, 0.841158889461113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7187701281283023, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8089385150833973, 0.0, 0.0, 1.006023695446708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.011325021621769293, 0.1710721693046209, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38092899590373025 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288880.671434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288880.671434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9502133933308327, 0.049786606669167385 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 272, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) (PMR, also known as Transnistria) is an unrecognized state on the border of Moldova and Ukraine. All UN nations, including Russia, formally consider Transnistrian territory to be part of Moldova. Russia does maintain a [consulate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Transnistria_relations) in Transnistria, as well as an [ongoing military presence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_presence_in_Transnistria). Moldova has repeatedly asked for the removal of Russian troops, including as recently as [September 2021](https://romania.europalibera.org/a/maia-sandu-republica-moldova-onu/31473107.html)." }, { "id": 10766, "title": "Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?", "short_title": "Georgia controls S. Ossetia, Abkhazia by 2028", "url_title": "Georgia controls S. Ossetia, Abkhazia by 2028", "slug": "georgia-controls-s-ossetia-abkhazia-by-2028", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:09:34.277318Z", "published_at": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T13:41:58.824112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10766, "title": "Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-04-21T22:09:34.277318Z", "open_time": "2022-04-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-29T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-29T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[South Ossetia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia) and [Abkhazia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia) are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These tensions reached a climax in the 12-day [Russo-Georgian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War), after which Russia formally recognized both states as independent nations. Georgia and the vast majority of UN nations regard both states to be part of Georgia, though Georgia does not have control over the regions.\n\nIn January 2021, the [European Court of Human Rights determined](https://apnews.com/article/europe-georgia-salome-zurabishvili-moscow-russia-854c37a67adc9cda0920a00e931efc09) that Russia has held \"effective control\" of the two regions since August 2008, and is thus responsible for acts of torture and human rights abuses which since occurred there. The court estimated that in 2020, Russia had as many as 1 soldier per 8 residents in South Ossetia.\n\nOn March 30, 2022, South Ossetian President Anatoliy Bibilov proposed a referendum on formally joining the Russian Federation, [stating](https://eurasianet.org/south-ossetia-says-it-will-seek-to-join-russia) \"Unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the hope of our people, and we will move on this path\". Abkhazian Parliamentary Speaker Valery Kvarchia, in response to questions on whether Abkhazia would follow this path, [stated](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/georgia-breakaway-region-abkhazia-south-ossetia-join-russia-1549709), \"Russia is our strategic partner, a dear and close state, but we in the republic (of Abkhazia) have no intention of joining the Russian Federation\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, Georgia controls more than half (by area) of South Ossetia and more than half of Abkhazia (according to their de facto borders on January 1, 2022). Control of these regions must be simultaneous, and be sustained for at least 30 consecutive days.\n\nThe government of Georgia must itself not be de facto controlled by Russia during this period in order to resolve the question as \"**Yes**\".\n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762616386.97014, "end_time": 1765861992.615173, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762616386.97014, "end_time": 1765861992.615173, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.11471112954518586 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0561011325199074, 3.266487080938104, 0.8527382365551335, 0.35033622771640044, 0.8549453225181818, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.5537594640325395, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8720104955769312 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288802.996634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288802.996634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9778412688671587, 0.022158731132841235 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[South Ossetia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia) and [Abkhazia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia) are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These tensions reached a climax in the 12-day [Russo-Georgian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War), after which Russia formally recognized both states as independent nations. Georgia and the vast majority of UN nations regard both states to be part of Georgia, though Georgia does not have control over the regions.\n\nIn January 2021, the [European Court of Human Rights determined](https://apnews.com/article/europe-georgia-salome-zurabishvili-moscow-russia-854c37a67adc9cda0920a00e931efc09) that Russia has held \"effective control\" of the two regions since August 2008, and is thus responsible for acts of torture and human rights abuses which since occurred there. The court estimated that in 2020, Russia had as many as 1 soldier per 8 residents in South Ossetia.\n\nOn March 30, 2022, South Ossetian President Anatoliy Bibilov proposed a referendum on formally joining the Russian Federation, [stating](https://eurasianet.org/south-ossetia-says-it-will-seek-to-join-russia) \"Unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the hope of our people, and we will move on this path\". Abkhazian Parliamentary Speaker Valery Kvarchia, in response to questions on whether Abkhazia would follow this path, [stated](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/georgia-breakaway-region-abkhazia-south-ossetia-join-russia-1549709), \"Russia is our strategic partner, a dear and close state, but we in the republic (of Abkhazia) have no intention of joining the Russian Federation\"" }, { "id": 10765, "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?", "short_title": "Member Exits Eurozone by 2030", "url_title": "Member Exits Eurozone by 2030", "slug": "member-exits-eurozone-by-2030", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-21T16:47:42.881076Z", "published_at": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T14:18:37.065686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10765, "title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-04-21T16:47:42.881076Z", "open_time": "2022-04-26T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/member-exits-eurozone-by-2025/)\n- [Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/)\n- [Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/)\n- [When will Croatia adopt the euro?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10, 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency. The list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\n\nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\n\nThis question will resolve according to a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2030, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. 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You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10757, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-20T20:05:38.409536Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-06T18:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-06T18:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-06T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. 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You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10756, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-20T20:00:43.330245Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-06T18:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-06T18:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-06T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. 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Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6th, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." }, { "id": 10753, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "short_title": "VA COVID-19 Hospitalizations >500 2022-05-20", "url_title": "VA COVID-19 Hospitalizations >500 2022-05-20", "slug": "va-covid-19-hospitalizations-500-2022-05-20", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-20T19:42:57.468196Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.539397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! 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You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10753, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-20T19:42:57.468196Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). 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Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." } ] }
