Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=420
{ "count": 5527, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=400", "results": [ { "id": 36487, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for PTC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-ptc-in-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090222Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T22:20:30.577909Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:27:32.442501Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35922, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Production Tax Credits (45Y)?", "created_at": "2025-04-06T00:49:56.090572Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:27:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Production Tax Credits (PTC) described in [26 U.S. Code § 45Y](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-production-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-45y/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those established by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for PTC only for specific categories will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753053933.851562, "end_time": 1753264850.200102, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753053933.851562, "end_time": 1753264850.200102, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1128816016435466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4596517665152903, 1.3896858686002922, 0.0, 0.15832791047994677, 0.6466425724863939, 3.146644793277561, 0.5305793101529589, 0.5910196847484603, 1.2491801586670332, 0.31231707178603585, 1.1244933139220117, 1.1149280819106617, 0.0, 0.38056383031887875, 1.4173538863269193, 0.604187100311688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551877698067269, 0.244712726673844, 0.04297263601330976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05403161900765602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03693695285416927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.04241110270749711, 0.0, 0.014318380015828209, 0.03173358396197871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04997991489646793, 0.025639130579011613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7349249771329066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06420789640327502, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.0, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.003037496846661492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003696163311486092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009651325883926231 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the production tax credits (PTC) for wind and geothermal-generated electricity to cover most renewable sources and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act." }, { "id": 36478, "title": "Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?", "short_title": "Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?", "url_title": "Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?", "slug": "wild-animal-infected-with-new-world-screwworm-in-the-us-before-2027", "author_id": 114172, "author_username": "Liedholm", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-05T15:00:19.379998Z", "published_at": "2025-04-12T02:32:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-09T15:17:34.757398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-12T02:35:29.188381Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-13T02:32:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 35871, "title": "Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-04-05T15:00:19.380408Z", "open_time": "2025-04-13T02:32:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-17T02:32:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "* [According to APHIS](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm/outbreak-central-america), the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.\n* Climate change [seems to be contributing](https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12046) to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.\n* See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request) for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.\n* An identical question on Manifold can be found [here](https://manifold.markets/Liedholm/will-a-wild-animal-be-infected-with).\n* A previous outbreak took place [among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/nws-epi-report.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 00:00 GMT on January 1, 2027, a United States government agency, such as the USDA-APHIS, confirms that a free-ranging wild animal in the [contiguous United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contiguous_United_States) has been infected by the New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax). Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only infections in free-ranging wild animals will be considered. Infections in humans, pets, livestock, or any animals that are captive or confined are excluded. Infections in feral animals (such as feral cats) are counted.", "post_id": 36478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752074244.261388, "end_time": 1756029298.122462, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752074244.261388, "end_time": 1756029298.122462, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4023474456381138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1878952627022041, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "* [According to APHIS](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/cattle/ticks/screwworm/outbreak-central-america), the New World screwworm has been spreading northward from the current barrier zone along the Darién Gap in Panama.\n* Climate change [seems to be contributing](https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12046) to an expansion of habitat suitability northward in the Americas.\n* See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d2HJ3eysBdPoiZBnJ/launching-screwworm-free-future-funding-and-support-request) for a summary of recent developments and attempts to combat the spread of the parasite.\n* An identical question on Manifold can be found [here](https://manifold.markets/Liedholm/will-a-wild-animal-be-infected-with).\n* A previous outbreak took place [among deer in the Florida Keys in 2016](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/nws-epi-report.pdf)." }, { "id": 36461, "title": "Will minimum staffing standards for Long-Term Care Facilities of 3.48 hours per resident per day be in effect before May 11, 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Nursing Home Minimum Staffing Final Rule be in effect", "url_title": "Will the Nursing Home Minimum Staffing Final Rule be in effect", "slug": "will-the-nursing-home-minimum-staffing-final-rule-be-in-effect", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-05T00:46:04.637004Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:29:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T12:16:06.269356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T18:29:54.246023Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-05-11T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35850, "title": "Will minimum staffing standards for Long-Term Care Facilities of 3.48 hours per resident per day be in effect before May 11, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-04-05T00:46:04.637439Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:29:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-05-11T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-05-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 21, 2024, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under the administration of President Joe Biden published a [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf) requiring non-rural long-term care (LTC) facilities participating in Medicare or Medicaid to provide a minimum of 3.48 total nurse staffing hours per resident day by May 10, 2027. Additionally, by May 2026 the rule requires facilities to have a registered nurse on site 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. \n\nA University of Pennsylvania study [calculated](https://medicareadvocacy.org/analysis-nursing-home-nurse-staffing-rule-would-save-13000-lives-each-year/) that the rule, once fully implemented, would save 13,000 lives per year. There are over [1.2 million](https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0\\&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D) Americans living in LTC facilities, and most of the facilities did not have enough staff to comply with the new rule, which would require hiring tens of thousands of new staff members across the US added to their payrolls, an average of 2 new full-time workers per facility. [According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/24/1246628171/nursing-home-staffing-final-rule-medicare-medicaid#:~:text=,one%20being%20taken%20care%20of): \n\n> Democrats praised the rules, though some said the administration did not go nearly far enough. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Health Subcommittee, said the changes were \"modest improvements\" but that \"much more is needed to ensure sufficient care and resident safety.\" A Republican senator from Nebraska, Deb Fischer, said the rule would \"devastate nursing homes across the country and worsen the staffing shortages we are already facing.\"\n\n> Advocates for nursing home residents have been pressing CMS for years to adopt a higher standard than what it ultimately settled on. A CMS-commissioned [study in 2001 found](https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf) that the quality of care improved with increases of staff up to a level of 4.1 hours per resident per day — nearly a fifth higher than what CMS will require.\n\nNursing home and LTC facility industry groups immediately opposed the rule, with the American Health Care Association [saying](https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Nursing-Homes-React-to-Staffing-Mandate-Final-Rule.aspx), \"We are extremely disappointed and troubled that the Biden Administration is resolved to issue this unfunded staffing mandate.\" \n\nAdditionally, Republican politicians have vowed to kill the new rule, with multiple bills introduced to repeal it. According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5033563-nursing-home-staffing-rule-repeal-expected/), there are at least three mechanisms by which the staffing rule could be stopped:\n\n1. Legislation passed in Congress, including through the budget and appropriation process, which requires only a simple majority due to Senate Reconciliation rules.\n2. Being overturned by courts.\n3. CMS under the new Donald Trump administration could roll back or eliminate the rule.\n\nNotably, on April 3, 2025, government lawyers working for the Department of Justice under the Trump Administration [filed a strong defense](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/trumps-doj-voices-support-for-biden-nursing-home-staffing-rule) of the minimum staffing rule in a court case that was seeking to overturn it, which indicates President Trump might support the requirement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on any date before May 11, 2027, a majority of non-rural Medicare and Medicaid certified Long-Term Care (LTC) facilities in the United States are legally required, by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) rules or otherwise, to provide a minimum of 3.48 or more total nurse staffing hours per resident day (HPRD) of nursing care. Question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), especially any announcements by CMS or any other government agency with the authority to establish the staffing standard. If a national minimum staffing rule has not gone into effect before that date, for any reason, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess CMS's definitions or methodologies, and this question will resolve based on whether its requirements for LTC facilities minimum staffing are implemented before the resolution date. Regarding the main metric of HPRD, according to page 6 of CMS's [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf): \n\n> We are defining “hours per resident day” as staffing hours per resident per day which is the total number of hours worked by each type of staff divided by the total number of residents as calculated by CMS.\n\nThis question will resolve regardless of whether the minimum staffing requirement is being enforced. ", "post_id": 36461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753034125.567682, "end_time": 1753139203.929841, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753034125.567682, "end_time": 1753139203.929841, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06533770442227678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2559466568099266, 2.143679365490337, 2.2588815918151868, 1.8845229003792872, 2.1813818441751236, 0.8296764805797749, 1.0, 0.3794816404052171, 0.8165144761101065, 1.3993043727462307, 0.6018700634079956, 0.15683086978933167, 0.04778779694851711, 0.07463110673437197, 0.05736130050041941, 0.013428206234607602, 0.04351510538011948, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.05302037126640169, 0.32079907142651704, 0.011434859273641353, 0.24023209194123907, 0.0, 0.0025372866159333904, 0.20794218954840368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05324361205949521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01352731712145787, 0.0, 0.011960451585633447, 0.10267947011888395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.03168297378827611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917757179981307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00699857894747922, 0.1129114072074252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008061960629922116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 21, 2024, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) under the administration of President Joe Biden published a [final rule](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-08273.pdf) requiring non-rural long-term care (LTC) facilities participating in Medicare or Medicaid to provide a minimum of 3.48 total nurse staffing hours per resident day by May 10, 2027. Additionally, by May 2026 the rule requires facilities to have a registered nurse on site 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. \n\nA University of Pennsylvania study [calculated](https://medicareadvocacy.org/analysis-nursing-home-nurse-staffing-rule-would-save-13000-lives-each-year/) that the rule, once fully implemented, would save 13,000 lives per year. There are over [1.2 million](https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0\\&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D) Americans living in LTC facilities, and most of the facilities did not have enough staff to comply with the new rule, which would require hiring tens of thousands of new staff members across the US added to their payrolls, an average of 2 new full-time workers per facility. [According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/24/1246628171/nursing-home-staffing-final-rule-medicare-medicaid#:~:text=,one%20being%20taken%20care%20of): \n\n> Democrats praised the rules, though some said the administration did not go nearly far enough. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Health Subcommittee, said the changes were \"modest improvements\" but that \"much more is needed to ensure sufficient care and resident safety.\" A Republican senator from Nebraska, Deb Fischer, said the rule would \"devastate nursing homes across the country and worsen the staffing shortages we are already facing.\"\n\n> Advocates for nursing home residents have been pressing CMS for years to adopt a higher standard than what it ultimately settled on. A CMS-commissioned [study in 2001 found](https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/elderjustice/legacy/2015/07/12/Appropriateness_of_Minimum_Nurse_Staffing_Ratios_in_Nursing_Homes.pdf) that the quality of care improved with increases of staff up to a level of 4.1 hours per resident per day — nearly a fifth higher than what CMS will require.\n\nNursing home and LTC facility industry groups immediately opposed the rule, with the American Health Care Association [saying](https://www.ahcancal.org/News-and-Communications/Press-Releases/Pages/Nursing-Homes-React-to-Staffing-Mandate-Final-Rule.aspx), \"We are extremely disappointed and troubled that the Biden Administration is resolved to issue this unfunded staffing mandate.\" \n\nAdditionally, Republican politicians have vowed to kill the new rule, with multiple bills introduced to repeal it. According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5033563-nursing-home-staffing-rule-repeal-expected/), there are at least three mechanisms by which the staffing rule could be stopped:\n\n1. Legislation passed in Congress, including through the budget and appropriation process, which requires only a simple majority due to Senate Reconciliation rules.\n2. Being overturned by courts.\n3. CMS under the new Donald Trump administration could roll back or eliminate the rule.\n\nNotably, on April 3, 2025, government lawyers working for the Department of Justice under the Trump Administration [filed a strong defense](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/trumps-doj-voices-support-for-biden-nursing-home-staffing-rule) of the minimum staffing rule in a court case that was seeking to overturn it, which indicates President Trump might support the requirement." }, { "id": 36459, "title": "Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a \"Current Policy\" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?", "short_title": "Will TCJA personal tax cuts extend via Senate reconciliation w/ current policy?", "url_title": "Will TCJA personal tax cuts extend via Senate reconciliation w/ current policy?", "slug": "will-tcja-personal-tax-cuts-extend-via-senate-reconciliation-w-current-policy", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-04T13:20:59.360497Z", "published_at": "2025-04-10T18:33:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-09T21:28:09.747089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-10T19:38:19.076352Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32725, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fiscal Showdown 2025", "slug": "fiscal", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/fiscal-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-10T18:32:44Z", "close_date": "2026-01-12T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-31T14:36:20.680029Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:29:01.129060Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35848, "title": "Will the 2017 TCJA Individual Tax Cuts Be Extended Using a \"Current Policy\" Baseline in Senate Reconciliation?", "created_at": "2025-04-04T13:20:59.360858Z", "open_time": "2025-04-10T18:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-15T18:33:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-09T21:28:09.706802Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-09T21:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several tax cuts for individuals from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire at the end of 2025. If these expire, most tax brackets would rise, as detailed by the[ <u>Tax Foundation</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/). The standard deduction, which doubled under the TCJA, would be cut in half (with certain inflation adjustments) if the provision were to sunset.\n\nSenate Republicans want to make these TCJA tax cuts permanent, while Democrats generally oppose this citing budget deficit concerns. The Senate's filibuster rules typically require 60 votes for legislation, meaning in a 53-47 chamber, most bills need support from 7 Democrats. Budget reconciliation offers a path around this, allowing passage with a simple majority.\n\nHowever, reconciliation bills that increase the deficit face complications under Senate rules. The traditional approach uses a \"current law baseline,\" which assumes scheduled tax cuts will expire. Republicans are pursuing a \"current policy baseline\" alternative, which assumes tax cuts would be extended and therefore have no substantial budgetary effect.\n\nThis alternative approach requires approval within the Senate's procedural framework. If rejected, Republicans might either challenge Senate traditions to push it through anyway or extend the tax cuts temporarily rather than permanently. At the time of this question,[ <u>The Hill</u>](https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4651531-gop-trump-tax-cuts-deficits-parliamentarian/) reports that Republicans might move forward on a current policy baseline without waiting for procedural rulings.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before October 1, 2025, any of the individual tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (as listed in the Fine Print) are extended via enactment of a reconciliation bill that used a \"current policy\" baseline in the Senate's budget reconciliation process, as reported by credible sources.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if both a reconciliation bill for spending and a reconciliation bill for revenue are enacted (either as separate bills or a combined bill) before the question has resolved as **Yes**, or if October 1, 2025 is reached without such an extension.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 2017 individual tax cuts that count for a positive resolution are at least one of the following four items, as detailed at the[ <u>Internal Revenue Service page Tax Reform Provisions that Affect Individuals</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-reform-provisions-that-affect-individuals):\n\n1. The changes in tax rates and/or tax brackets introduced by the TCJA.\n2. The increased standard deduction.\n3. The increased maximum Child Tax Credit and/or increased income threshold at which the credit begins to phase out.\n4. The increased basic exclusion amount for the Estate and Gift Tax.\n\nNo other provisions will count, even if they benefit individuals. For example, if the 20% qualified business income deductions for sole proprietorships are made permanent using a current policy baseline, it will not count since it is not listed.", "post_id": 36459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752082992.992479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752082992.992479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8761195160642811 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08300594337036615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03341512255428215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48066753395180806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.012156317823425493, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7786222306639689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7978398946894734, 0.1551539486306374, 0.06871034895382641, 1.357140748867511, 0.0, 0.5897651965739195, 0.9150840798804445, 0.5572181865755963, 1.165747790574091, 0.0, 1.2760089982633662, 0.879817146123457, 1.994703977537624, 0.2807683892230446, 0.0, 0.7277160936243963, 0.0, 0.6326680595244999, 0.0, 1.3947240159558894 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.39423276869084, "peer_score": 6.699301795071051, "coverage": 0.5193729450867143, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990983061065003, "spot_peer_score": 11.852547588521254, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 33.39423276869084, "peer_archived_score": 6.699301795071051, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.852547588521254, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 205, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Several tax cuts for individuals from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are set to expire at the end of 2025. If these expire, most tax brackets would rise, as detailed by the[ <u>Tax Foundation</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/tax-basics/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/). The standard deduction, which doubled under the TCJA, would be cut in half (with certain inflation adjustments) if the provision were to sunset.\n\nSenate Republicans want to make these TCJA tax cuts permanent, while Democrats generally oppose this citing budget deficit concerns. The Senate's filibuster rules typically require 60 votes for legislation, meaning in a 53-47 chamber, most bills need support from 7 Democrats. Budget reconciliation offers a path around this, allowing passage with a simple majority.\n\nHowever, reconciliation bills that increase the deficit face complications under Senate rules. The traditional approach uses a \"current law baseline,\" which assumes scheduled tax cuts will expire. Republicans are pursuing a \"current policy baseline\" alternative, which assumes tax cuts would be extended and therefore have no substantial budgetary effect.\n\nThis alternative approach requires approval within the Senate's procedural framework. If rejected, Republicans might either challenge Senate traditions to push it through anyway or extend the tax cuts temporarily rather than permanently. At the time of this question,[ <u>The Hill</u>](https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4651531-gop-trump-tax-cuts-deficits-parliamentarian/) reports that Republicans might move forward on a current policy baseline without waiting for procedural rulings." }, { "id": 36427, "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?", "url_title": "Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?", "slug": "will-erdogan-remain-president-of-turkey-until-the-next-elections", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-01T10:38:08.570125Z", "published_at": "2025-04-01T14:10:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T23:43:11.533185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-01T14:13:03.917177Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-07T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-02T14:10:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35829, "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election?", "created_at": "2025-04-01T10:38:08.570576Z", "open_time": "2025-04-02T14:10:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-06T15:10:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-02-02T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 19th of March 2025, popular opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu [was arrested on suspicion of \"corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and supporting terrorism\". He was then sent to Marmara Prison on the 23rd of March 2025.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_of_Ekrem_%C4%B0mamo%C4%9Flu)\n\nThis has lead to [mass protests across the country, enraged at the current administration](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr52g356l41o), for not only this recent arrest, but also for the current administration's [handling of Turkey's economy](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-mass-protests-target-erdogans-grip-on-power/a-72088299). As a result, this itself has lead to the [Turkish economy getting hurt from all this political turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-companies-paying-bill-political-crisis-roils-economy-2025-03-28/).\n\nAs it seems that President Erdoğan and his administration are getting seen as unpopular, this leads to the question of if Erdoğan may decide to resign from the Presidency before the next election, or if this will lead to a second coup attempt against Erdoğan (the first time being during [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_attempt))?", "resolution_criteria": "If Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continuously remains President of Turkey until the next Turkish presidential election this question resolves **YES**.\n\nIf Erdoğan does not continuously remain President of Turkey, for any reason, before the next Turkish presidential election has occurred, then this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "If Erdoğan is ousted through a coup, the position \"President of Turkey\" is removed or the Republic of Turkey does not exist anymore, this question will resolve as **NO**.\n\nThe election being held early will have no impact on this question, and the question may still resolve **YES** if Erdoğan holds office only until then.\n\nIf there is a serious dispute on who the President of Turkey is, and Erdoğan is one of the claimants, this question will only resolve **NO** when/if it is reported by credible sources that Erdoğan does not hold the powers of the President of Turkey.\n\nBrief intermittency of power such as during a surgery will not resolve this question, regardless of any serious dispute.", "post_id": 36427, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753054981.326195, "end_time": 1753178237.074889, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753054981.326195, "end_time": 1753178237.074889, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8966163717254626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.900698222629168, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 1.2268051617412845, 1.3961287886396818, 1.2198004484698002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935248795209733 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 19th of March 2025, popular opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu [was arrested on suspicion of \"corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and supporting terrorism\". He was then sent to Marmara Prison on the 23rd of March 2025.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_of_Ekrem_%C4%B0mamo%C4%9Flu)\n\nThis has lead to [mass protests across the country, enraged at the current administration](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr52g356l41o), for not only this recent arrest, but also for the current administration's [handling of Turkey's economy](https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-mass-protests-target-erdogans-grip-on-power/a-72088299). As a result, this itself has lead to the [Turkish economy getting hurt from all this political turmoil](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-companies-paying-bill-political-crisis-roils-economy-2025-03-28/).\n\nAs it seems that President Erdoğan and his administration are getting seen as unpopular, this leads to the question of if Erdoğan may decide to resign from the Presidency before the next election, or if this will lead to a second coup attempt against Erdoğan (the first time being during [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Turkish_coup_attempt))?" }, { "id": 36420, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-there-be-a-bilateral-ceasefire-in-the-russo-ukraine-conflict-before-2026", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-01T02:58:30.492459Z", "published_at": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:27.381685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35826, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-01T02:58:30.492459Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-21T08:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-21T08:41:41.246041Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between January 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, inclusive. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. If no ceasefire has stood for 30 days before January 30, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**.\r\n\r\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745192263.667564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745192263.667564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2700809549590803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.550284727283762, 0.0, 0.4925280170881631, 0.05148079025128712, 0.0, 2.708563677296965, 0.0, 0.7512051043271543, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 2.16474627536431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04604866032236176, 0.0, 1.3846166252874594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5805438574528169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump [repeatedly claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how. While Zelensky [was somewhat reassured](https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call) by his phone call with Trump and Elon Musk, after the November elections, [more recent reporting](https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/) indicates that Trump's plans might cede a lot of Ukraine ground to Russia.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/)." }, { "id": 36416, "title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-strike-iran-by-the-end-of-may-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-31T17:42:16.544837Z", "published_at": "2025-03-31T18:40:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:12.399823Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-31T18:41:03.039475Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35822, "title": "Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-31T17:42:16.545237Z", "open_time": "2025-03-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T22:09:14.961180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Forecasters from [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/), a team of top Samotsvety forecasters specialising in global catastrophes, on March 27, 2025, [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran) a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran in April:\n\n> The US military is **bringing** [**approximately six**](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904779250269298953)\\*\\*\\*\\* [**B-2 stealth bombers**](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/) **to a joint US-UK military base on** [**Diego Garcia**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia), an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), the largest of the US \"**bunker buster\" bombs** that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three [C-17 cargo aircraft](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529726/c-17-globemaster-iii/) have [flown to Diego Garcia](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904634535217680675) to support the B-2s, and one to support [KC-135 Stratotankers](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529736/kc-135-stratotanker/) that [refuel B-2s](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/); three additional C-17s have flown to Diego Garcia for unknown purposes. [Seven KC-135s and one other aircraft are parked](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904984950341861659) on Diego Garcia as of this writing.\n> \n> The current buildup of B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia is large and very unusual. It is possible that the bombers are staging for missions against the Houthis in Yemen, though this might not be the case for two reasons: First, the US conducted strikes against fortified underground targets in Yemen in [October 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-target-underground-houthi-weapons-storage-sites-yemen-2024-10-17/) and [January 2025](https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-targets-houthi-arms-facilities-red-sea-strikes-2011835), and while [more underground targets likely remain](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/04/yemens-houthis-are-going-underground/), a large mission to target underground Houthi locations seems like overkill. Second, for **the October 2024 airstrikes in Yemen, B-2s were** [**likely deployed directly from Missouri**](https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3975711/stealth-bombers-land-precision-strike-against-houthi-militia/)**, not Diego Garcia**, and [B-2s were not used](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-12-31/houthi-yemen-strikes-navy-air-force-16332097.html) in the January 2025 airstrikes; current preparations are much larger-scale and different.\n\nIn a later [blog post](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025) published on March 31, 2025, they revised their estimate after receiving additional information:\n\n> A pilot [wrote to us](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran/comment/103880279) to clarify that NOTAM timelines aren’t that reliable. Forecasters vary between already knowing this and thinking that the NOTAM might also be used to signal the seriousness of the timeline to Iran, and changing their minds a bit and thinking that a bombing beyond April would be less surprising. **We are now at a 25% chance (15% to 65%) of US/Israeli military action against nuclear weapons program targets in Iran by the end of May.** Our forecasters view US threats against Iran's nuclear program as analogous to pointing a gun at a car: the US is not threatening to invade Iran, only to damage facilities and assets that are important to it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 1, 2025, the United States carries out an attack within Iran, according to official announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The attack does not need to be against Iranian targets, but it has to be aimed at targets in Iranian territory. Iranian territory will be considered the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n* Cyberattacks will not resolve this question.\n* For this to resolve based on credible news sources, the sources have to present this as confirmed fact and not speculation or the most probable explanation.\n* In the case of ambiguous or conflicting information, Metaculus may wait up to 30 days to resolve the question, and will set the resolution date as the date of the attack as best estimated by Metaculus.", "post_id": 36416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748650907.681335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748650907.681335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.053253747660544797 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.156453555721514, 1.078327063655631, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6255699491346716, 0.3935277555318061, 0.21228082485103633, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.3375782871808938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.28620498600085, "peer_score": 10.421988876081176, "coverage": 0.9995004156735527, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995004156735527, "spot_peer_score": 7.450409327803616, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 85.28620498600085, "peer_archived_score": 10.421988876081176, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.450409327803616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Forecasters from [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/), a team of top Samotsvety forecasters specialising in global catastrophes, on March 27, 2025, [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran) a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran in April:\n\n> The US military is **bringing** [**approximately six**](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904779250269298953)\\*\\*\\*\\* [**B-2 stealth bombers**](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/) **to a joint US-UK military base on** [**Diego Garcia**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia), an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), the largest of the US \"**bunker buster\" bombs** that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three [C-17 cargo aircraft](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529726/c-17-globemaster-iii/) have [flown to Diego Garcia](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904634535217680675) to support the B-2s, and one to support [KC-135 Stratotankers](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/1529736/kc-135-stratotanker/) that [refuel B-2s](https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104482/b-2-spirit/); three additional C-17s have flown to Diego Garcia for unknown purposes. [Seven KC-135s and one other aircraft are parked](https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904984950341861659) on Diego Garcia as of this writing.\n> \n> The current buildup of B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia is large and very unusual. It is possible that the bombers are staging for missions against the Houthis in Yemen, though this might not be the case for two reasons: First, the US conducted strikes against fortified underground targets in Yemen in [October 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-forces-target-underground-houthi-weapons-storage-sites-yemen-2024-10-17/) and [January 2025](https://www.newsweek.com/us-military-targets-houthi-arms-facilities-red-sea-strikes-2011835), and while [more underground targets likely remain](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/04/yemens-houthis-are-going-underground/), a large mission to target underground Houthi locations seems like overkill. Second, for **the October 2024 airstrikes in Yemen, B-2s were** [**likely deployed directly from Missouri**](https://www.afgsc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3975711/stealth-bombers-land-precision-strike-against-houthi-militia/)**, not Diego Garcia**, and [B-2s were not used](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2024-12-31/houthi-yemen-strikes-navy-air-force-16332097.html) in the January 2025 airstrikes; current preparations are much larger-scale and different.\n\nIn a later [blog post](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025) published on March 31, 2025, they revised their estimate after receiving additional information:\n\n> A pilot [wrote to us](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran/comment/103880279) to clarify that NOTAM timelines aren’t that reliable. Forecasters vary between already knowing this and thinking that the NOTAM might also be used to signal the seriousness of the timeline to Iran, and changing their minds a bit and thinking that a bombing beyond April would be less surprising. **We are now at a 25% chance (15% to 65%) of US/Israeli military action against nuclear weapons program targets in Iran by the end of May.** Our forecasters view US threats against Iran's nuclear program as analogous to pointing a gun at a car: the US is not threatening to invade Iran, only to damage facilities and assets that are important to it." }, { "id": 36402, "title": "Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?", "short_title": "Fridtjof Nansen-class replacement decision before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Fridtjof Nansen-class replacement decision before Sep 2025?", "slug": "fridtjof-nansen-class-replacement-decision-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T18:26:57.129591Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:14.062215Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T18:00:49Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T17:13:06.521805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T17:13:06.521805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35814, "title": "Will Norway announce the replacement design for the Fridtjof Nansen-class before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T18:26:57.130016Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the Norwegian parliament [passed](https://www.thommessen.no/en/news/norwegian-parliament-approves-long-term-defense-funding-plan) a long-term [funding plan](https://www.forsvaret.no/aktuelt-og-presse/publikasjoner/forsvarets-langtidsplan) for the Norwegian Armed Forces amounting to NOK 611 billion. Part of this plan includes:\n\n> \\[procuring] a minimum of five new frigates equipped with anti-submarine helicopters, new submarines, and a standardized vessel class with up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels.\n\nThe five new frigates are considered to be the flagship of the funding plan and several nations are involved in negotiations for their design to be selected to replace Norway's ageing [Fridtjof Nansen-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fridtjof_Nansen-class_frigate).\n\nFour designs have been \"downselected\" by Norway:\n\n1. *T*[*ype 26-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_26_frigate) (BAE Systems, United Kingdom).\n2. [*Constellation-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation-class_frigate) (Fincantieri, United States).\n3. [*Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_and_intervention_frigate) (FDI) (Naval Group, France).\n4. [*Niedersachsen*-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F126_frigate) (F126) (Damen Group, Germany).\n\nAn announcement regarding the design is expected to occur in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Norwegian government officially announces it has selected a new frigate design before September 1, 2025, CET.", "fine_print": "The announcement need not name the selected design explicitly; confirmation that a selection has been made is sufficient.\n\nA statement that a design has been selected but is pending further parliamentary or cabinet approval will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nIf the Norwegian government officially announces that the programme to replace the Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates has been canceled or indefinitely deferred, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 36402, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749139088.462809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749139088.462809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7298956919546501 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.004297163761002799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053384367056441985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649682952973378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9920478540534396, 0.004788207941536495, 0.002567562607506935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11669616781663278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0666199395595711, 0.00466275598904929, 0.0031044370782578757, 0.029584164552788048, 0.0, 0.005054053945388742, 0.0, 0.01318912173696172, 0.0, 0.0752619547280123, 0.0001381996355704661, 0.0, 0.002821422112112083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.041328065837679756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017866702916235926, 0.0028068053031946112, 0.015236013164587956, 0.0, 0.0017706471602459382, 0.1120030514909969, 0.0, 0.010753084937238888, 0.0010678085286069262, 0.0, 0.09007843981497737, 0.027908695288531345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2054221346617558, 0.29041279246826146, 0.0, 0.05012485898363295, 0.010008111503974924, 0.0, 1.3924325093682564, 0.0241779814177198, 0.17271243172132983, 0.33551423870510994, 0.0, 0.6540038015153302, 0.6268263519034717, 0.9574925854671692, 0.44498215533956786, 0.10446072670974002, 3.766159953109077, 0.5872627437096594, 0.8773859148341077, 0.514111160174797, 0.0, 4.215490767746062, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4383398896158597, 0.0, 1.7875269812945578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14357473929480172, 0.5560185919021291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7105958360873026 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1468, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the Norwegian parliament [passed](https://www.thommessen.no/en/news/norwegian-parliament-approves-long-term-defense-funding-plan) a long-term [funding plan](https://www.forsvaret.no/aktuelt-og-presse/publikasjoner/forsvarets-langtidsplan) for the Norwegian Armed Forces amounting to NOK 611 billion. Part of this plan includes:\n\n> \\[procuring] a minimum of five new frigates equipped with anti-submarine helicopters, new submarines, and a standardized vessel class with up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels.\n\nThe five new frigates are considered to be the flagship of the funding plan and several nations are involved in negotiations for their design to be selected to replace Norway's ageing [Fridtjof Nansen-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fridtjof_Nansen-class_frigate).\n\nFour designs have been \"downselected\" by Norway:\n\n1. *T*[*ype 26-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_26_frigate) (BAE Systems, United Kingdom).\n2. [*Constellation-class*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation-class_frigate) (Fincantieri, United States).\n3. [*Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defence_and_intervention_frigate) (FDI) (Naval Group, France).\n4. [*Niedersachsen*-class](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F126_frigate) (F126) (Damen Group, Germany).\n\nAn announcement regarding the design is expected to occur in 2025." }, { "id": 36399, "title": "Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?", "short_title": "Revolut fully fledged UK banking licence before July 26, 2025?", "url_title": "Revolut fully fledged UK banking licence before July 26, 2025?", "slug": "revolut-fully-fledged-uk-banking-licence-before-july-26-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T15:27:37.927133Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:40.360204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T17:55:09Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T17:13:06.521805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T17:13:06.521805Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35809, "title": "Will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed before July 26, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T15:27:37.927501Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-26T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-16T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is valued at over \\$100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, originating in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut first obtained [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). On July 25, 2024, Revolut was [awarded](https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_receives_uk_banking_licence/) a UK banking license which was a significant milestone for the company, ending a three-year wait.\n\nThe license awarded by the Prudential Regulation Authority with restrictions (commonly referred to as a provisional license) whilst the bank goes through a so-called \"mobilisation phase\" which a Bloomberg [article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/revolut-hiring-hundreds-to-become-a-fully-fledged-uk-bank) summarises:\n\n> The “mobilization phase” is a common step for many new entrants in the UK, with rivals including Monzo Bank Ltd., Starling Bank Ltd. and Atom Bank Plc going through the process previously. Revolut has been able to trial and run critical banking systems with around 30 customers that have combined deposits of £50,000, Carlesi said.\n\nThe same article suggests that the mobilisation stage is likely to conclude by July:\n\n> The regulator normally expects this stage to conclude within 12 months, meaning Revolut would become a fully fledged bank by July. Once the regulator gives the green light, Revolut will be able to migrate its millions of UK customers from its electronic money institution to its UK bank entity — Revolut NewCo UK Ltd.\n\n***\n\n*Background adapted from* [*Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21860/revolut-banking-licence/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) announces that Revolut has received a full UK banking license before July 26, 2025, GMT.", "fine_print": "Other credible sources may be used instead of the Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), so long as the sources are explicit in stating Revolut has received a full UK banking license.", "post_id": 36399, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750030069.859063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750030069.859063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 149, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5164097090460603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0037979036519217007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042801998755228096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001090203602827936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13418758249782997, 0.7173341350777269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.509669388629438, 0.0, 0.028831072191564586, 0.0, 0.1423069883635154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05324043471794, 0.8084307865251847, 0.04049585662196554, 0.47395247677544455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021311080201875176, 0.0, 0.25262039147455656, 0.07860647117334726, 0.0, 1.34354092929074, 0.06693011442076319, 0.2316752153078092, 0.02912962557589681, 0.0, 1.1775161956417322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8939847504855649, 0.3599167143423097, 0.0, 0.012322777007463166, 0.6317790873561886, 2.089629570451062, 0.8838131193539324, 0.6054267177388786, 3.6927441333251805e-05, 0.0, 0.7844909650331349, 1.351858684537435, 1.1914673604610821, 0.0, 1.247430613254091, 0.025666930402785032, 0.6252651779727192, 0.03436898683173223, 0.06589302829675463, 0.7347152630898555, 0.5424277859139788, 0.9775363140310391, 0.0010328227133211084, 0.0, 0.6877044928425908, 1.2391462415588896, 0.0015616802263089407, 0.0, 0.00840420369040725, 0.0, 0.6590146172472763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000670440143834785, 0.0625008899165032, 0.392419233010581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017594889196372114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0342251423215965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6141755152318691 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1583, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is valued at over \\$100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, originating in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut first obtained [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). On July 25, 2024, Revolut was [awarded](https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_receives_uk_banking_licence/) a UK banking license which was a significant milestone for the company, ending a three-year wait.\n\nThe license awarded by the Prudential Regulation Authority with restrictions (commonly referred to as a provisional license) whilst the bank goes through a so-called \"mobilisation phase\" which a Bloomberg [article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-13/revolut-hiring-hundreds-to-become-a-fully-fledged-uk-bank) summarises:\n\n> The “mobilization phase” is a common step for many new entrants in the UK, with rivals including Monzo Bank Ltd., Starling Bank Ltd. and Atom Bank Plc going through the process previously. Revolut has been able to trial and run critical banking systems with around 30 customers that have combined deposits of £50,000, Carlesi said.\n\nThe same article suggests that the mobilisation stage is likely to conclude by July:\n\n> The regulator normally expects this stage to conclude within 12 months, meaning Revolut would become a fully fledged bank by July. Once the regulator gives the green light, Revolut will be able to migrate its millions of UK customers from its electronic money institution to its UK bank entity — Revolut NewCo UK Ltd.\n\n***\n\n*Background adapted from* [*Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21860/revolut-banking-licence/)" }, { "id": 36398, "title": "Will Russia's population be less than 140 million before 2035?", "short_title": "Russia's population less than 140 million before 2035?", "url_title": "Russia's population less than 140 million before 2035?", "slug": "russias-population-less-than-140-million-before-2035", "author_id": 267891, "author_username": "Vlad_U", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T13:30:55.040897Z", "published_at": "2025-04-06T02:55:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:14.925429Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-06T02:58:29.006751Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T02:55:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35808, "title": "Will Russia's population be less than 140 million before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T13:30:55.041436Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T02:55:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T02:55:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Total Fertility Rate is a coefficient denoting the average number of children born per woman per whole lifetime. To keep the population from decreasing, it must be greater than 2.1.\n\n[According to Rosstat](https://rosstat.gov.ru/compendium), the population of Russia on January 1, 2025 is 146.1 million people. For the last 3 years the population of the country has been steadily decreasing; since 2021 it has decreased by 1 million.\n\nAlso [according to Rosstat](https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/03/2024/66014d649a79476bc9717e3e) data for 2023 the total birth rate was 1.4, and this rate has been steadily decreasing since 2014; only 2 regions of Russia out of 89 for 2023 had TFR more than 2.1.\n\nIn 2023 [Rosstat published](https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/220709) its own demographic forecast of the population of Russia until 2046, it believes that by January 1, 2046 in Russia will live 138.77 million people and the total fertility rate will be 1.663.\n\nUN forecast of global FTR based on 2013 and 2024:\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if at any time before January 1st 2035, Rosstat publishes an estimate of Russia's current population as less than 140 million people.\n\nOtherwise this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "If this information is no longer published by Rosstat atleast once a year, an alternative source may be used as determined by Metaculus.", "post_id": 36398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751396319.634767, "end_time": 1812841884.127, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751396319.634767, "end_time": 1812841884.127, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8168495543823356 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5713680770573366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.508669837089197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Total Fertility Rate is a coefficient denoting the average number of children born per woman per whole lifetime. To keep the population from decreasing, it must be greater than 2.1.\n\n[According to Rosstat](https://rosstat.gov.ru/compendium), the population of Russia on January 1, 2025 is 146.1 million people. For the last 3 years the population of the country has been steadily decreasing; since 2021 it has decreased by 1 million.\n\nAlso [according to Rosstat](https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/03/2024/66014d649a79476bc9717e3e) data for 2023 the total birth rate was 1.4, and this rate has been steadily decreasing since 2014; only 2 regions of Russia out of 89 for 2023 had TFR more than 2.1.\n\nIn 2023 [Rosstat published](https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/220709) its own demographic forecast of the population of Russia until 2046, it believes that by January 1, 2046 in Russia will live 138.77 million people and the total fertility rate will be 1.663.\n\nUN forecast of global FTR based on 2013 and 2024:\n\n" }, { "id": 36395, "title": "[Practice] Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-the-trump-administration-impose-new-tariffs-on-the-eu-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-29T04:35:20.153101Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:55.171483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35800, "title": "[Practice] Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-29T04:35:20.153101Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-20T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-20T15:47:34.803370Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\r\n\r\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs that apply to imports from all EU member states take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\r\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**. The tariffs can target other states besides EU members.\r\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\r\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 36395, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743469357.897275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743469357.897275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.7096191461236763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\r\n\r\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\r\n\r\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 36391, "title": "Will a major streaming platform publicly confirm the use of a GNN-based recommendation system before 2026?", "short_title": "Major platform GNN recommender by end of 2025?", "url_title": "Major platform GNN recommender by end of 2025?", "slug": "major-platform-gnn-recommender-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 267864, "author_username": "angelovad03", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:18:38.868843Z", "published_at": "2025-03-29T19:07:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T02:28:27.681276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-29T19:09:58.411848Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T19:07:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35796, "title": "Will a major streaming platform publicly confirm the use of a GNN-based recommendation system before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:18:38.869171Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T19:07:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-03T19:07:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a specialized form of deep learning designed to process data with complex relationships, represented as nodes and edges in a graph. They have gained popularity for capturing intricate patterns in user-item interaction data, making them a promising approach for recommendation systems. However, large-scale industrial deployment of GNN-based recommenders remains limited due to technical challenges, implementation costs, and production complexities.\n\nMore resources on GNNs:\n\n[A Gentle Introduction to Graph Neural Networks](https://distill.pub/2021/gnn-intro)\n\n[Stanford CS224W: Machine Learning with Graphs](https://cs224w.stanford.edu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if a major streaming platform issues a public confirmation that it uses Graph Neural Networks for its recommendation system. Otherwise it will resolve No.\n\n1. A “major streaming platform” is defined as any video streaming service with at least 50 million paying subscribers by the resolution date.\n2. Public confirmation must be an official announcement from the platform such as an engineering blog post, press release, or a published interview with a senior engineer or executive stating they use Graph Neural Networks for their production recommendation feature.", "fine_print": "If a platform uses GNNs privately without any official announcement or interview, this question will remain unresolved.\n\nExperimental or research-only usage does not qualify unless it is a part of the live, production recommendation system. ", "post_id": 36391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753050161.804061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753050161.804061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.24595780843190554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are a specialized form of deep learning designed to process data with complex relationships, represented as nodes and edges in a graph. They have gained popularity for capturing intricate patterns in user-item interaction data, making them a promising approach for recommendation systems. However, large-scale industrial deployment of GNN-based recommenders remains limited due to technical challenges, implementation costs, and production complexities.\n\nMore resources on GNNs:\n\n[A Gentle Introduction to Graph Neural Networks](https://distill.pub/2021/gnn-intro)\n\n[Stanford CS224W: Machine Learning with Graphs](https://cs224w.stanford.edu/)" }, { "id": 36389, "title": "Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?", "short_title": "US no longer a democracy by 2030?", "url_title": "US no longer a democracy by 2030?", "slug": "us-no-longer-a-democracy-by-2030", "author_id": 115542, "author_username": "JBerman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:05:28.906928Z", "published_at": "2025-03-29T16:59:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T03:30:42.128418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-29T17:01:26.075384Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T16:59:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35794, "title": "Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-03-28T21:05:28.907263Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T16:59:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-03T16:59:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) publishes an annual Democracy Index that categorizes countries into four regime types:\n\n* Full democracies (scores of 8.01-10)\n* Flawed democracies (scores of 6.01-8.00)\n* Hybrid regimes (scores of 4.01-6.00)\n* Authoritarian regimes (scores of 0-4.00)\n\nThe United States has been classified as a \"flawed democracy\" since 2016, with its rating based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will Resolve Yes if the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index classifies the United States as either a \"hybrid regime\" or an \"authoritarian regime\" in at least one of its annual reports published before 2030.\n\nOtherwise it will resolve No.", "fine_print": "Any changes to the name of either the Economist, the reports or categories will not impact this question, so long as the US scores \\<6.01 on a report with a 0-10 scale of democracy, and the report is clearly a continuation of the Democracy Index.", "post_id": 36389, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752463831.651082, "end_time": 1758419572.025787, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752463831.651082, "end_time": 1758419572.025787, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27757364366713944 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.09721220349958049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.46932007365798145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.8980869333871763, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 2.257205496887312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) publishes an annual Democracy Index that categorizes countries into four regime types:\n\n* Full democracies (scores of 8.01-10)\n* Flawed democracies (scores of 6.01-8.00)\n* Hybrid regimes (scores of 4.01-6.00)\n* Authoritarian regimes (scores of 0-4.00)\n\nThe United States has been classified as a \"flawed democracy\" since 2016, with its rating based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties." }, { "id": 36386, "title": "Will Banksy's identity be revealed to the public before 2031?", "short_title": "Banksy's identity revealed before 2031?", "url_title": "Banksy's identity revealed before 2031?", "slug": "banksys-identity-revealed-before-2031", "author_id": 267861, "author_username": "cotucotudu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-28T19:44:34.681109Z", "published_at": "2025-04-08T15:23:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:12.778668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-08T15:24:37.235831Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:23:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35791, "title": "Will Banksy's identity be revealed to the public before 2031?", "created_at": "2025-03-28T19:44:34.681489Z", "open_time": "2025-04-09T15:23:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-13T15:23:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Banksy is an influential and anonymous street artist, known for his politically charged and satirical works that often appear on public walls, buildings, and streets. While he typically engages in creating public art, some of his pieces are sold through his agency, Pest Control, to select clients.\n\nOne of Banksy's most famous and iconic pieces, \"[Girl with a Balloon](https://banksyexplained.com/issue/girl-with-balloon-graffiti-legend/),\" symbolizes innocence and fleeting hope. In 2018, during an auction at Sotheby's, the artwork self-shredded moments after being sold, a stunt Banksy orchestrated. The event, now called \"[Love is in the Bin](https://banksyexplained.com/love-is-in-the-bin-2018/),\" challenged the art world's conventions and sparked widespread conversation about the value and commercialization of art.\n\nThe only known public appearance of Banksy was in his 2010 documentary, [*Exit Through the Gift Shop*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1587707/). Additionally, he has published six books between 2001 and 2012, showcasing his artwork.\n\nHe is commonly believed to be Robin Gunningham, as first identified by [*The Mail* ](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13253955/How-identified-Banksy-nice-middle-class-boy-called-Robin-16-years-ago-world-refuses-accept-mystery-cash-cow.html)on Sunday in 2008, and corroborated by his associates and former schoolmates at Bristol Cathedral School. There has been alternative speculation that Banksy is Robert Del Naja (a.k.a. 3D), member of the trip hop band Massive Attack.\n\nOn 29 April 2010, [Time Magazine](https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1984685,00.html) named Banksy as one of the World’s 100 Most Influential People.\n\nBanksy continues to be a prolific artist, with notable works in 2024, including the [*London Animal Series*](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9ejndq4d4o) and [*Madonna and Child*](https://www.instagram.com/p/DDpGU2WMwoV/), which was posted on his Instagram a week before Christmas.\n\nFor further updates, Banksy maintains an official website [here](https://banksy.co.uk/index.html) and an Instagram account [here](https://www.instagram.com/banksy/). According to his site, he is not active on Facebook or Twitter and is not represented by any gallery or institution.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Banksy's full name and an identifiable photograph are revealed to the public officially by Banksy before January 1, 2031. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745749160.080063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745749160.080063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.27661320286825675 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5295781724391593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30567052222881175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3681678989571866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Banksy is an influential and anonymous street artist, known for his politically charged and satirical works that often appear on public walls, buildings, and streets. While he typically engages in creating public art, some of his pieces are sold through his agency, Pest Control, to select clients.\n\nOne of Banksy's most famous and iconic pieces, \"[Girl with a Balloon](https://banksyexplained.com/issue/girl-with-balloon-graffiti-legend/),\" symbolizes innocence and fleeting hope. In 2018, during an auction at Sotheby's, the artwork self-shredded moments after being sold, a stunt Banksy orchestrated. The event, now called \"[Love is in the Bin](https://banksyexplained.com/love-is-in-the-bin-2018/),\" challenged the art world's conventions and sparked widespread conversation about the value and commercialization of art.\n\nThe only known public appearance of Banksy was in his 2010 documentary, [*Exit Through the Gift Shop*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1587707/). Additionally, he has published six books between 2001 and 2012, showcasing his artwork.\n\nHe is commonly believed to be Robin Gunningham, as first identified by [*The Mail* ](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13253955/How-identified-Banksy-nice-middle-class-boy-called-Robin-16-years-ago-world-refuses-accept-mystery-cash-cow.html)on Sunday in 2008, and corroborated by his associates and former schoolmates at Bristol Cathedral School. There has been alternative speculation that Banksy is Robert Del Naja (a.k.a. 3D), member of the trip hop band Massive Attack.\n\nOn 29 April 2010, [Time Magazine](https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,1984685,00.html) named Banksy as one of the World’s 100 Most Influential People.\n\nBanksy continues to be a prolific artist, with notable works in 2024, including the [*London Animal Series*](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9ejndq4d4o) and [*Madonna and Child*](https://www.instagram.com/p/DDpGU2WMwoV/), which was posted on his Instagram a week before Christmas.\n\nFor further updates, Banksy maintains an official website [here](https://banksy.co.uk/index.html) and an Instagram account [here](https://www.instagram.com/banksy/). According to his site, he is not active on Facebook or Twitter and is not represented by any gallery or institution." }, { "id": 36372, "title": "Will the Indian government ban Youtube before July 2030?", "short_title": "Will the Indian government ban Youtube before July 2030?", "url_title": "Will the Indian government ban Youtube before July 2030?", "slug": "will-the-indian-government-ban-youtube-before-july-2030", "author_id": 267797, "author_username": "n23j", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-28T03:10:24.409816Z", "published_at": "2025-03-29T16:50:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T00:44:32.460136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-29T16:52:02.855029Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-30T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-30T18:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T16:50:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35788, "title": "Will the Indian government ban Youtube before July 2030?", "created_at": "2025-03-28T03:10:24.410136Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T16:50:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-03T16:50:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-06-30T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-30T18:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-06-30T18:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-06-30T18:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "YouTube is one of the most popular online platforms in India, with hundreds of millions of users accessing it for entertainment, education, news, and communication ([Statista - YouTube Users in India](https://www.statista.com/statistics/280685/number-of-monthly-unique-youtube-users/)) However, in recent years, there has been increasing friction between large digital platforms, including YouTube, and the Indian government regarding content regulation and compliance with national laws.\n\nThe Indian government has expressed concerns over the spread of misinformation, hate speech, and content deemed detrimental to national security or public order hosted on social media platforms. This led to the notification of the [Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021](https://prsindia.org/files/bills_acts/bills_parliament/2021/Intermediary_Guidelines_and_Digital_Media_Ethics_Code_Rules-2021.pdf), which impose greater compliance burdens on significant social media intermediaries, including requirements for traceability of messages and faster content takedowns under government orders.\n\nPlatforms like Twitter (now X) and WhatsApp have faced legal challenges and public disputes with the government over these rules ([Reuters - India's new IT rules](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-slams-twitter-not-complying-with-new-it-rules-2021-06-16/)) ([X sues Indian Government](https://www.reuters.com/technology/x-sues-modis-government-over-content-removal-new-india-censorship-fight-2025-03-20/ \"X sues Indian Government\")). YouTube has also received numerous government directives to block specific videos or channels within India, citing various legal provisions ([The Hindu - YouTube blocks channels on govt order](https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/4999-youtube-links-blocked-so-far-it-ministry/article66630488.ece)) These actions often spark debates surrounding freedom of speech versus government regulation ([Internet Freedom Foundation - India](https://internetfreedom.in)).\n\nGiven these ongoing tensions, the history of content blocking requests, and the broader global discussion on platform governance and state control, this question asks whether these dynamics will escalate to a full, nationwide ban of YouTube within India before mid-2030.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to **Yes** if the Government of India, through an official order or directive from a relevant ministry (such as the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology - MeitY) or a competent court acting on government request/legal grounds related to national policy/security/public order, mandates a nationwide block preventing the general public within India from accessing the primary YouTube service (youtube.com and associated official mobile applications).\n\nTo resolve as Yes, the following conditions must be met:\n\n1. The block must be officially mandated by the Indian government or judiciary acting on relevant legal grounds.\n2. The block must apply nationwide within India. Regional or localized blocks do not count.\n3. The block must target the core YouTube platform (youtube.com and official apps). Blocking specific channels, videos, or related but distinct services like YouTube Music or YouTube TV (if applicable in India) does not count.\n4. The block must be implemented, resulting in the platform being substantially inaccessible for the majority of users across major Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in India.\n5. This period of mandated inaccessibility must last for **at least 7 consecutive days**.\n6. The ban must commence on or before **June 30, 2030, 23:59:59 India Standard Time (IST)**.\n\nThis question resolves to **No** if no such government-mandated nationwide ban meeting all the above criteria commences on or before June 30, 2030, 23:59:59 IST.\n\n**Resolution Sources:**\nResolution will be based on credible evidence, including:\n\n1. Official announcements, press releases, or published orders from the Government of India (e.g., MeitY) or Indian courts.\n2. Reporting from multiple major, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times) and Indian news outlets (e.g., The Hindu, Indian Express, Times of India).\n3. Reports from internet monitoring organizations like [NetBlocks](https://www.google.com/url?sa=E\\&q=https%3A%2F%2Fnetblocks.org%2F) or India-specific digital rights groups like the [Internet Freedom Foundation](https://www.google.com/url?sa=E\\&q=https%3A%2F%2Finternetfreedom.in%2F) or [SFLC.in](https://www.google.com/url?sa=E\\&q=https%3A%2F%2Fsflc.in%2F) confirming a nationwide, government-mandated block.\n\nIf there is conflicting information, resolution will rely on the preponderance of evidence from these credible sources.", "fine_print": "* A temporary outage due to technical reasons, cyberattacks not attributed to a government mandate, or brief blocks shorter than 7 consecutive days will not count towards a Yes resolution.\n* A voluntary withdrawal of services from India by Google/YouTube does not constitute a government ban and will not lead to a Yes resolution.\n* The ban counts even if it can be circumvented using technical means like VPNs, as long as the government mandate exists and is enforced via measures like ISP-level blocking.\n* The question will resolve as soon as a qualifying ban occurs and is verified, or it will resolve to No on July 1, 2030, if no such ban has occurred by the deadline.\n* Metaculus Admins will rely on the listed sources and publicly available information to determine the resolution.", "post_id": 36372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752885861.945841, "end_time": 1760077005.207002, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752885861.945841, "end_time": 1760077005.207002, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.07532179621078464 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 1.8101125222158911, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 1.5693619561470489, 0.0, 0.3036409629621556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "YouTube is one of the most popular online platforms in India, with hundreds of millions of users accessing it for entertainment, education, news, and communication ([Statista - YouTube Users in India](https://www.statista.com/statistics/280685/number-of-monthly-unique-youtube-users/)) However, in recent years, there has been increasing friction between large digital platforms, including YouTube, and the Indian government regarding content regulation and compliance with national laws.\n\nThe Indian government has expressed concerns over the spread of misinformation, hate speech, and content deemed detrimental to national security or public order hosted on social media platforms. This led to the notification of the [Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021](https://prsindia.org/files/bills_acts/bills_parliament/2021/Intermediary_Guidelines_and_Digital_Media_Ethics_Code_Rules-2021.pdf), which impose greater compliance burdens on significant social media intermediaries, including requirements for traceability of messages and faster content takedowns under government orders.\n\nPlatforms like Twitter (now X) and WhatsApp have faced legal challenges and public disputes with the government over these rules ([Reuters - India's new IT rules](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-slams-twitter-not-complying-with-new-it-rules-2021-06-16/)) ([X sues Indian Government](https://www.reuters.com/technology/x-sues-modis-government-over-content-removal-new-india-censorship-fight-2025-03-20/ \"X sues Indian Government\")). YouTube has also received numerous government directives to block specific videos or channels within India, citing various legal provisions ([The Hindu - YouTube blocks channels on govt order](https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/4999-youtube-links-blocked-so-far-it-ministry/article66630488.ece)) These actions often spark debates surrounding freedom of speech versus government regulation ([Internet Freedom Foundation - India](https://internetfreedom.in)).\n\nGiven these ongoing tensions, the history of content blocking requests, and the broader global discussion on platform governance and state control, this question asks whether these dynamics will escalate to a full, nationwide ban of YouTube within India before mid-2030." }, { "id": 36363, "title": "Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?", "short_title": "Gene editing of human embryos approved by 2035?", "url_title": "Gene editing of human embryos approved by 2035?", "slug": "gene-editing-of-human-embryos-approved-by-2035", "author_id": 267008, "author_username": "zpryakhin2", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-27T19:51:01.990815Z", "published_at": "2025-04-02T18:01:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:35.714312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-02T18:03:13.806171Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-03T18:01:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35781, "title": "Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-03-27T19:51:01.991231Z", "open_time": "2025-04-03T18:01:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-07T19:01:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gene editing technologies, particularly CRISPR-Cas9, have made significant strides in recent years. There are already officially approved drugs for spinal muscular atrophy, beta thalassaemia and hereditary visual impairment. However, with this treatment, only somatic cells are genetically modified and the mutations which lead to disease will be passed on to the next generations. At the moment germline editing—modifying the DNA of embryos, eggs, or sperm—remains highly controversial.\n\nThe potential benefits include eliminating inherited genetic disorders, reducing disease risks, and even enhancing certain traits. However, ethical concerns such as unintended genetic consequences, social inequality, and the possibility of \"designer babies\" have led to widespread restrictions. Currently, most countries either ban or heavily regulate germline editing, with China being a notable case following the controversial CRISPR baby experiment in 2018.\n\nA few decades ago, abortion was illegal in most countries, whereas today it is legally permitted in many parts of the world, including much of Europe and North America. This shift illustrates how ethical norms can change over time in response to medical and social developments. Additionally, in 2016, the UK's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) approved the use of CRISPR technology for studying early embryonic development. While edited embryos cannot be implanted, this decision suggests that legislation regarding genetic technologies may evolve as scientific understanding advances.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2035, at least one country officially legalizes or formally approves the clinical use of gene editing in human embryos for therapeutic purposes (i.e., preventing or treating genetic diseases in the person the embryo may become). Otherwise it will resolve No.", "fine_print": "The approval must come from a recognized governmental or regulatory body, such as the FDA (USA), EMA (EU), or equivalent authorities in other countries.\nThe approval must explicitly allow clinical applications, not just research use.\nThe decision must be legally binding and not merely a proposal, recommendation, or experimental exemption.", "post_id": 36363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744200199.555947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744200199.555947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6436621130034481 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gene editing technologies, particularly CRISPR-Cas9, have made significant strides in recent years. There are already officially approved drugs for spinal muscular atrophy, beta thalassaemia and hereditary visual impairment. However, with this treatment, only somatic cells are genetically modified and the mutations which lead to disease will be passed on to the next generations. At the moment germline editing—modifying the DNA of embryos, eggs, or sperm—remains highly controversial.\n\nThe potential benefits include eliminating inherited genetic disorders, reducing disease risks, and even enhancing certain traits. However, ethical concerns such as unintended genetic consequences, social inequality, and the possibility of \"designer babies\" have led to widespread restrictions. Currently, most countries either ban or heavily regulate germline editing, with China being a notable case following the controversial CRISPR baby experiment in 2018.\n\nA few decades ago, abortion was illegal in most countries, whereas today it is legally permitted in many parts of the world, including much of Europe and North America. This shift illustrates how ethical norms can change over time in response to medical and social developments. Additionally, in 2016, the UK's Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) approved the use of CRISPR technology for studying early embryonic development. While edited embryos cannot be implanted, this decision suggests that legislation regarding genetic technologies may evolve as scientific understanding advances." }, { "id": 36358, "title": "Will an iron oxide nanoparticle-based therapy for cancer be approved by the FDA before 2050?", "short_title": "Magnetite NP for cancer treatment by 2050?", "url_title": "Magnetite NP for cancer treatment by 2050?", "slug": "magnetite-np-for-cancer-treatment-by-2050", "author_id": 267712, "author_username": "maryyurchenko71225", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-27T08:59:48.988174Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T10:51:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:58.902051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-07T10:52:04.543953Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T10:51:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35777, "title": "Will an iron oxide nanoparticle-based therapy for cancer be approved by the FDA before 2050?", "created_at": "2025-03-27T08:59:48.988515Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T10:51:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T10:51:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2046-01-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2046-01-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Some magnetite nanoparticles have already been approved by the Food and Drug Administration and are commercially available, for example, as contrast agents for MRI ([Lumirem](https://www.pubcompare.ai/product/1TLiCZIBPBHhf-iFu4e_/) in the EU or [GastroMARK](https://www.drugs.com/pro/gastromark.html) in the USA) and therapeutic agents for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia ([Feraheme](https://www.feraheme.com/) in the USA). However, the vast majority of magnetite nanoparticles are still in preclinical trials.\n\nAlthough there are a [large number of studies](https://doi.org/10.3390/pharmaceutics15010236) in which iron oxide nanoparticles have been used for cancer therapy, both in vitro and in vivo, no drug has yet advanced to clinical trials in humans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one iron oxide nanoparticle-based cancer therapeutic drug is approved by the FDA before January 1, 2050.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749133685.652221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749133685.652221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.485437046379678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1328260863663662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Some magnetite nanoparticles have already been approved by the Food and Drug Administration and are commercially available, for example, as contrast agents for MRI ([Lumirem](https://www.pubcompare.ai/product/1TLiCZIBPBHhf-iFu4e_/) in the EU or [GastroMARK](https://www.drugs.com/pro/gastromark.html) in the USA) and therapeutic agents for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia ([Feraheme](https://www.feraheme.com/) in the USA). However, the vast majority of magnetite nanoparticles are still in preclinical trials.\n\nAlthough there are a [large number of studies](https://doi.org/10.3390/pharmaceutics15010236) in which iron oxide nanoparticles have been used for cancer therapy, both in vitro and in vivo, no drug has yet advanced to clinical trials in humans." }, { "id": 36348, "title": "Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?", "short_title": "Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?", "url_title": "Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?", "slug": "federal-judge-impeached-by-republicans-before-jan-3-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2025-03-26T14:36:32.523315Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T20:48:15.177690Z", 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by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-03-26T14:36:32.523716Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Impeachment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States) of federal judges in the United States is a rare and serious action, typically reserved for cases involving significant misconduct or ethical violations. The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n\nIn March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives with fewer than half of Democratic representatives voting for the impeachment.", "fine_print": "The reason for impeachment is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n\nConviction in the US Senate, which at the time of this question [requires](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) a two-thirds vote to convict, is not necessary for this question to resolve as **Yes**. 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The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n\nIn March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* " }, { "id": 36342, "title": "Will China's nominal GDP be larger than the U.S. GDP in 2050?", "short_title": "China GDP will overtake US GDP by 2050?", "url_title": "China GDP will overtake US GDP by 2050?", "slug": "china-gdp-will-overtake-us-gdp-by-2050", "author_id": 267633, "author_username": "dranov_egor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-26T12:50:18.435357Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:56:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:37.420156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T17:59:28.265444Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T17:56:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35764, "title": "Will China's nominal GDP be larger than the U.S. GDP in 2050?", "created_at": "2025-03-26T12:50:18.435726Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T17:56:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T17:56:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-01T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T12:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "* Nominal GDP refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year, measured in current prices.\n* As of the latest data, China has seen rapid economic growth, which has led to discussions and predictions about whether it will surpass the United States in nominal GDP in the coming decades.\n* Various factors influence GDP growth, including population growth, productivity advancements, trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics.\n* Relevant data sources for GDP forecasts include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and reputable economic research institutions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the nominal GDP of the China is greater than the nominal GDP of the United States in 2050. \n\nIt will resolve as No if the nominal GDP of the United States is greater than the nominal GDP of China in 2050.", "fine_print": "* The question will be resolved based on the nominal GDP data reported by the World Bank for the year 2050.\n* In the case that the World Bank does not publish GDP data for 2050, the most current and reliable alternative sources (such as the International Monetary Fund or other reputable economic institutions) will be used for resolution, as long as they refer to the year 2050.\n* The values will be compared in U.S. dollars at the nominal exchange rate at that time.\n* If the United States or China ceases to exist, a successor state may be determined by Metaculus. 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whether it will surpass the United States in nominal GDP in the coming decades.\n* Various factors influence GDP growth, including population growth, productivity advancements, trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics.\n* Relevant data sources for GDP forecasts include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and reputable economic research institutions." }, { "id": 36331, "title": "Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?", "short_title": "Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?", "url_title": "Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?", "slug": "will-a-government-program-reward-deportation-tips-before-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-25T20:33:50.543309Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T15:05:47.903169Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T15:30:37.370178Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:39:44.983268Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 35753, "title": "Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-03-25T20:33:50.543638Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Throughout US history, there have been various forms of civilian tip lines and enforcement incentives related to immigration, but none yet offering paid rewards. Currently, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tip line allows civilians to report suspected immigration violations, but it does not offer monetary incentives. Given the ongoing debates about immigration policy and border enforcement, there is a possibility that certain states or the federal government could introduce a monetary reward system to encourage civilian participation in deportation efforts.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal or state government formally establishes a program that provides monetary rewards to civilians for providing information leading to the deportation of individuals from the US.\n\nFor this question to resolve as Yes:\n\n* The program must be officially established by a federal executive branch department (e.g., DHS, ICE, DOJ), a state executive branch agency, or a federal or state legislature through enacted legislation.\n* The program must offer monetary compensation or financial incentives in exchange for providing information that contributes to the deportation of undocumented immigrants or individuals otherwise subject to removal proceedings.\n* The program must become active before January 1, 2027.\n\nThis question will not resolve as Yes if:\n\n* There is no monetary reward involved (e.g., a general tip line or anonymous reporting system without financial compensation).\n* The program is proposed or debated but not officially established and implemented before the deadline.\n* The program is created only by a private organization rather than a government entity.\n* The monetary rewards are only offered to law enforcement officers or government employees, rather than civilians.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753023937.348078, "end_time": 1753439061.982228, "forecaster_count": 280, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753023937.348078, "end_time": 1753439061.982228, "forecaster_count": 280, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5740760742359616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.009199602474211529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006077047043638432, 0.0, 0.036287388897710396, 0.0011381320194400065, 1.6892549619707074e-05, 0.026829342834665003, 0.0, 0.2354968711852335, 0.0, 0.05977138620164486, 0.3616903264065394, 0.000474777866659757, 0.017517332798860308, 0.005094565490156383, 0.0, 0.29848791449546824, 0.0001420697169131043, 0.7645557036699077, 0.0024022749407296116, 0.0, 0.0021330651706934077, 0.00026180276149288464, 0.7575813583048427, 2.3690462893152017e-05, 0.08364418227574973, 1.093990869017344, 0.0, 1.234353611776322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06361369879615204, 7.619009934043632e-07, 1.0704828377477, 0.002455572773668819, 0.6022856585966646, 0.25387607240512017, 0.00021896981520454787, 0.4711528268843934, 0.018948032174542755, 0.09916249321019124, 0.0090450375646993, 0.7860160804213492, 1.0991012876024469, 0.010142187874980885, 0.010816906902658886, 0.5274381924275363, 0.03191288472693567, 0.18365174626234435, 0.7174458138832188, 0.06501088700796818, 0.8755891897940244, 0.0, 1.1682184097821695, 0.18701600736581864, 0.5788081126367945, 0.0, 0.01556190533929777, 3.3506220804295124, 0.0289468302224984, 0.4207086593044601, 0.12519252556983865, 0.014361496123947512, 2.516298604388355, 1.3836610855083602, 1.0949365323468725, 0.0, 0.00048918640170779, 1.8844781550904468, 0.9476945398879668, 0.027540631029869624, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1014893436875335, 0.9522704204777498, 0.0019950769104813935, 0.019703636707855826, 0.0012516095580162269, 0.7839432029133395, 0.0016797335524239136, 0.17094330169378424, 0.8835607189497392, 0.14556470137499897, 0.6391153685877913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05929013126615565, 0.0, 0.00023250466576291016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006598936722305175, 0.000330335205899945, 0.0, 9.146051398717561e-07, 1.5722574974790495 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 509, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Throughout US history, there have been various forms of civilian tip lines and enforcement incentives related to immigration, but none yet offering paid rewards. Currently, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tip line allows civilians to report suspected immigration violations, but it does not offer monetary incentives. Given the ongoing debates about immigration policy and border enforcement, there is a possibility that certain states or the federal government could introduce a monetary reward system to encourage civilian participation in deportation efforts.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* " } ] }
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