Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=420
{ "count": 6271, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=400", "results": [ { "id": 39420, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "short_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "url_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "slug": "dpa-re-authorization-before-oct-25", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.467526Z", "published_at": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T13:07:00.118290Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.759075Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38797, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:59.467942Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T11:36:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-09T13:06:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 12:14:31 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38877). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38877,\"question_id\":38194}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before October 1, 2025 (EDT), the President of the United States signs a public law that extends any of the statutory authorities created by the original Defense Production Act of 1950 (Pub. L. 81-774, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 4501 et seq.) past their current sunset of 30 September 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39420, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757422544.257083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757422544.257083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6961922209727341 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 12:14:31 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38877). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38877,\"question_id\":38194}}`" }, { "id": 39415, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "short_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "url_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "slug": "gpu-tracking-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.656627Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T21:17:00.138476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.897509Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38792, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:56.657054Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T19:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T21:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17094). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTraining large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17094,\"question_id\":17094}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires purchasers of a large number of GPUs to report their usage in the training of large AI models, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Each point in the resolution will be interpreted broadly:\n\n* Can be any reasonable definition of GPUs, such as all NVIDIA or ARM GPUs covered by the export controls established in 2022. If training of large AI systems can be done by a wider set of chips, resolves based on whether such chips are generally implicated by these laws.\n\n* \"Large number of GPUs\" here can be any reasonable threshold, such as >100 GPUs, or >$100k of GPUs.\n\n* \"training of large AI models\" will be interpreted broadly - for example, requiring firmware that tracks whether _any_ ML training is occurring would qualify. However, the regulations must apply at the level of chip monitoring - it is not sufficient that the purchasers of GPUs must summarize their usage patterns qualitatively.\n\n* \"Report\" here means that the usage must be reported to some governing authority, at a level of detail such that the governing authorities can clearly determine if large AI models have been trained using the chips.", "post_id": 39415, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761858870.815693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.188 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761858870.815693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.188 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.17825361462069567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 8.0, 4.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17094). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nTraining large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17094,\"question_id\":17094}}`" }, { "id": 39413, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "short_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "url_title": "Will an H5 PHEIC be declared by the WHO before 2026?", "slug": "will-an-h5-pheic-be-declared-by-the-who-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.525374Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T03:03:00.182273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.769654Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38790, "title": "Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:55.525773Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T01:32:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T03:02:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30763). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30763,\"question_id\":30523}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any H5 virus to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Per the WHO's [Q\\&A documentation](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees):\n\n> A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nIf WHO changes this definition in a manner that a panel of Metaculus Admins determines to be substantial, this question may be either clarified or annulled.\n\nFor purposes of this question, any subtype of H5 (e.g., H5N1, H5Nx) is acceptable if encompassed by the PHEIC.\n\nThe intention is for this question to resolve based on any PHEIC declaration by the WHO. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).", "post_id": 39413, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759978703.602022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759978703.602022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14184280913596006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 2.0, 9.0, 4.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 22.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30763). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to the WHO, the Emergency Committee of the International Health Regulations (IHR) [consists](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) \"of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a 'public health emergency of international concern' (PHEIC).\" Important factors the Emergency Committee weighs in its deliberation process are:\n\n1. risks to human health\n2. international spread of the outbreak, and\n3. interference with international travel.\n\nThe final determination of a PHEIC is made by the Director-General of the WHO.\n\nIn recent years, the WHO has declared a PHEIC for the [2022-2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak) and [2023-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_mpox_epidemic) mpox outbreaks, the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the 2018-2020 [ebola outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_Ebola_epidemic), and the 2015-2016 [Zika epidemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Zika_virus_epidemic).\n\nWith respect to H5, at the time of this question the WHO [assesses the risk](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON512) as follows:\n\n> Whenever avian influenza viruses are circulating in birds, there is a risk for sporadic infections in mammals and humans due to exposure to infected animals (including livestock), or contaminated environments and thus, further human cases are not unexpected. Influenza A infection has been rarely reported in bovine species and spread among dairy cattle herds in four U.S. States is being assessed. Previously, there have been human infections with other avian influenza subtypes following exposure to infected mammals.\n\n> Since the virus has not acquired mutations that facilitate transmission among humans and based on available information, WHO assesses the public health risk to the general population posed by this virus to be low and for occupationally exposed persons the risk of infection is considered low-to-moderate.\n\n> There are no specific vaccines for preventing influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. Candidate vaccines to prevent H5 infection in humans have been developed for pandemic preparedness purposes. Close analysis of the epidemiological situation, further characterization of the most recent viruses (from human cases and animal) and comprehensive investigations around human cases are critical to assess associated risk and to adjust risk management measures in a timely manner.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n* US Centers for Disease Control [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html)\n* WHO [Risk assessments and summaries of influenza at the human-animal interface](https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary)\n* Pan American Health Organization [Epidemiological alerts and updates](https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates)\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30763,\"question_id\":30523}}`" }, { "id": 39410, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Musk double the wealth of 2nd richest before 2026?", "slug": "will-musk-double-the-wealth-of-2nd-richest-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:53.862556Z", "published_at": "2025-09-26T02:58:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T04:29:00.212013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:54.132175Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-26T02:58:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38787, "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:53.862957Z", "open_time": "2025-09-26T02:58:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T04:28:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-04 20:16:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30651). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIt is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30651,\"question_id\":30419}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single day after December 3, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk's net worth is equal to at least double the second richest person in the world, according to [Bloomberg's Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).", "fine_print": "In case Bloomberg's index is not available, Forbes [similar list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) may be used.", "post_id": 39410, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758859756.605029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033166666666666664 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758859756.605029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033166666666666664 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11531823739261128 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 5.0, 13.0, 8.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-04 20:16:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30651). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIt is rare for the richest person or the richest family to double the wealth of the next richest. Bill Gates achieved this [in 1999](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#1999) when he reached $90 billion while Warren Buffett was at $36 billion, and was close [in 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#2001). The Walton family also achieved this in 1993 and 1994.\n\nAs of December 2, 2024 the net worth of the five richest individuals in the world is\n- Elon Musk: $353B\n- Jeff Bezos: $231B\n- Mark Zuckerberg: $210B\n- Larry Ellison: $198B\n- Bernard Arnault: $171B\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30651,\"question_id\":30419}}`" }, { "id": 39408, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Andy Burnham)", "short_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "url_title": "Winner of Next Labour Leadership Election", "slug": "winner-of-next-labour-leadership-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.521663Z", "published_at": "2025-10-12T20:08:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-12T21:39:00.274587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.778457Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-12T20:08:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38785, "title": "Who will win the next UK Labour Party Leadership Election? (Andy Burnham)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.522093Z", "open_time": "2025-10-12T20:08:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T21:38:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11830}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Andy Burnham'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThe question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is the winner of the next UK Labour Party leadership election following the election on April 4, 2020. All other candidates will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed below; more options may be added in the future.", "fine_print": "If the Labour party ceases to exist, or if the next Labour party leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 39408, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760305018.060518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.11499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760305018.060518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.11499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.885, 0.11499999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.12042780283649192 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 7.0, 5.0, 7.0, 9.0, 5.0, 8.0, 1.0, 11.0, 2.0, 4.0, 20.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-07-14 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11825). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11780/party-leaders-form-government-uk-election/)\n* [When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) of the United Kingdom is a one of the two major parties in the UK's [two-party political system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_the_United_Kingdom). Since April 2020, the leader of the Labour Party is [Keir Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer).\n\nThe House of Commons [states](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03938/SN03938.pdf) that a leadership election is held if there is a vacancy in that role (such as from a resignation or vote of no confidence), or if the Leader is challenged prior to the annual session of the Party conference. The incumbent is not required to be nominated and is automatically on the ballot; other candidates must recieve nominations from at least 10% of elected [MP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament_(United_Kingdom))s (or at least 20% if the Leader is being challenged). Candidates are elected by party members with an [instant-runoff system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting).\n\nIn June 2022, [The Times](https://archive.ph/t5GyY) reported that Keir Starmer was preparing his colleagues for a new leadership election if he was called to step down (for instance, in response to the [\"beergate\" scanadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer#Partygate_and_Beergate_controversy)) The Times named [Wes Streeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wes_Streeting) and [Lisa Nandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Nandy) as likely candidates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":11825,\"question_id\":11830}}`" }, { "id": 39407, "title": "Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Musk's giveaway be illegal on Dec 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Musk's giveaway be illegal on Dec 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-musks-giveaway-be-illegal-on-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.014262Z", "published_at": "2025-10-10T21:30:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-10T23:01:00.205672Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.255584Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-10T21:30:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38784, "title": "Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:52.014741Z", "open_time": "2025-10-10T21:30:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T23:00:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-27 22:32:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30344). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Elon Musk's Million-Dollar Giveaway to Registered Voters Be Ruled Illegal?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Elon-Musks-milliondollar-giveaway-to-register-voters-be-ruled-illegal)\n\nOn 19 October 2024, Elon Musk, the tech multi-billionaire and the world’s richest man, announced [he was planning to give away $1 million daily to a swing state voter in the run-up to the United States presidential election on 5 November.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/10/20/elon-musk-giving-1-million-daily-to-swing-state-voters-who-sign-his-petition-in-latest-controversial-giveaway/) To be eligible for the gift, [voters had to sign a petition created by Musk’s political action committee America PAC and be registered in a swing state.](https://www.vox.com/politics/378912/musk-trump-voting-contest-million-dollars-swing-state-lottery-pennsylvania) According to Musk, the winners were not chosen randomly by a lottery draw but rather [“selected to earn $1m as a spokesperson for America PAC.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o)\" [As GOP lawyer Chris Gober argued](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musks-pac-claims-1-million-winners-not-chosen-by-chance), “[t]he $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance. We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.” This is a departure from what Musk originally claimed, stating the giveaway was [“going to be award[ed] … randomly to people who have signed the petition”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o) at a campaign event. \nThe giveaway, however, has not been without controversy. After its announcement, Elon Musk and America PAC’s actions came under significant scrutiny. Notably, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, described the strategy as [“deeply concerning” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.”](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/20/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-money-giveaway-josh-shapiro-00184523) Legal experts have also offered differing opinions on the giveaway’s legality. Richard Hasen, a legal scholar teaching at the University of California, Los Angeles, claimed that the giveaway was [“clearly illegal”](https://x.com/rickhasen/status/1847815868924715295). On the other hand, Bradley Smith, a Professor at Capital University Law School and former Professor at Capital University Law School, argued that whilst he could understand why it could be argued Musk’s tactic has broken the law, ultimately [“the better catch is that it does not.\"](https://youtu.be/I2eZhYqmP4U?si=XND0WFQdpabyFEjP&t=190) Others still, like Dave Aronberg and Kim Wyman, have stressed that any judgements would be premature, stating that Musk is operating in a [“gray zone”](https://www.newsweek.com/legal-analysts-react-dojs-election-warning-elon-musk-1974003) where [“the answer is not clear”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/24/elon-musk-pay-1-million-daily-voters-trump/75822067007/). \nSo far, the giveaway has only resulted in [one lawsuit](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/10/28/philadelphia-da-sues-elon-musks-pro-trump-pac-over-1-million-giveaway/). At the end of October, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner (a self-described \"progressive prosecutor\") took Musk and America PAC to court, accusing them of hatching an [“illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”](https://drive.google.com/file/d/13X8d5QADhuuPghc01ousqJeIzxtLO1kc/view?pli=1) However, after lawyers on behalf of Musk and America PAC revealed the giveaway was not a lottery, [Philadelphia Judge Angelo Foglietta refused to impose an injunction and ruled that the giveaway could continue.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/11/04/elon-musk-pacs-1-million-giveaways-upheld-in-court/)\nDespite this, the opposition to Musk’s actions, and the open debate amongst legal experts about the giveaway’s legality, means that the possibility Musk and America PAC may be brought into court in the future cannot be ruled out, leaving the possibility open as to whether it will be ruled illegal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30344,\"question_id\":30142}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Elon Musk’s initiative to offer a million-dollar giveaway to incentivize voter registration has been ruled illegal by any U.S. court or regulatory body and this ruling has not been overturned, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39407, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760136971.640315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17314285714285715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760136971.640315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.17314285714285715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8268571428571428, 0.17314285714285715 ], "means": [ 0.20200123971607356 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 17.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-27 22:32:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30344). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Elon Musk's Million-Dollar Giveaway to Registered Voters Be Ruled Illegal?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Elon-Musks-milliondollar-giveaway-to-register-voters-be-ruled-illegal)\n\nOn 19 October 2024, Elon Musk, the tech multi-billionaire and the world’s richest man, announced [he was planning to give away $1 million daily to a swing state voter in the run-up to the United States presidential election on 5 November.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/10/20/elon-musk-giving-1-million-daily-to-swing-state-voters-who-sign-his-petition-in-latest-controversial-giveaway/) To be eligible for the gift, [voters had to sign a petition created by Musk’s political action committee America PAC and be registered in a swing state.](https://www.vox.com/politics/378912/musk-trump-voting-contest-million-dollars-swing-state-lottery-pennsylvania) According to Musk, the winners were not chosen randomly by a lottery draw but rather [“selected to earn $1m as a spokesperson for America PAC.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o)\" [As GOP lawyer Chris Gober argued](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/musks-pac-claims-1-million-winners-not-chosen-by-chance), “[t]he $1 million recipients are not chosen by chance. We know exactly who will be announced as the $1 million recipient today and tomorrow.” This is a departure from what Musk originally claimed, stating the giveaway was [“going to be award[ed] … randomly to people who have signed the petition”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crlnjzzk919o) at a campaign event. \nThe giveaway, however, has not been without controversy. After its announcement, Elon Musk and America PAC’s actions came under significant scrutiny. Notably, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, described the strategy as [“deeply concerning” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.”](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/20/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/elon-musk-money-giveaway-josh-shapiro-00184523) Legal experts have also offered differing opinions on the giveaway’s legality. Richard Hasen, a legal scholar teaching at the University of California, Los Angeles, claimed that the giveaway was [“clearly illegal”](https://x.com/rickhasen/status/1847815868924715295). On the other hand, Bradley Smith, a Professor at Capital University Law School and former Professor at Capital University Law School, argued that whilst he could understand why it could be argued Musk’s tactic has broken the law, ultimately [“the better catch is that it does not.\"](https://youtu.be/I2eZhYqmP4U?si=XND0WFQdpabyFEjP&t=190) Others still, like Dave Aronberg and Kim Wyman, have stressed that any judgements would be premature, stating that Musk is operating in a [“gray zone”](https://www.newsweek.com/legal-analysts-react-dojs-election-warning-elon-musk-1974003) where [“the answer is not clear”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/24/elon-musk-pay-1-million-daily-voters-trump/75822067007/). \nSo far, the giveaway has only resulted in [one lawsuit](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/10/28/philadelphia-da-sues-elon-musks-pro-trump-pac-over-1-million-giveaway/). At the end of October, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner (a self-described \"progressive prosecutor\") took Musk and America PAC to court, accusing them of hatching an [“illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”](https://drive.google.com/file/d/13X8d5QADhuuPghc01ousqJeIzxtLO1kc/view?pli=1) However, after lawyers on behalf of Musk and America PAC revealed the giveaway was not a lottery, [Philadelphia Judge Angelo Foglietta refused to impose an injunction and ruled that the giveaway could continue.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/11/04/elon-musk-pacs-1-million-giveaways-upheld-in-court/)\nDespite this, the opposition to Musk’s actions, and the open debate amongst legal experts about the giveaway’s legality, means that the possibility Musk and America PAC may be brought into court in the future cannot be ruled out, leaving the possibility open as to whether it will be ruled illegal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30344,\"question_id\":30142}}`" }, { "id": 39406, "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "short_title": "Deworming Recommended By GiveWell by 2026?", "url_title": "Deworming Recommended By GiveWell by 2026?", "slug": "deworming-recommended-by-givewell-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:51.445570Z", "published_at": "2025-10-25T14:44:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T16:15:00.389824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:51.688772Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-25T14:44:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38783, "title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:51.445995Z", "open_time": "2025-10-25T14:44:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T16:14:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-08-04 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\n\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\n\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n\n- [Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n\n- [How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\n\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\n\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4919,\"question_id\":4919}}`", "resolution_criteria": "**At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?**\n\n- Resolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n\n- If GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n\n- \"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n\n- If a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n\n- If deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n\n- If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n- Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39406, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761407526.803798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761407526.803798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4385719609135272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2020-08-04 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\n\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\n\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n\n- [Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n\n- [How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\n\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\n\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":4919,\"question_id\":4919}}`" }, { "id": 39400, "title": "Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Congress amend the climate provisions of IRA in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Congress amend the climate provisions of IRA in 2025?", "slug": "will-congress-amend-the-climate-provisions-of-ira-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:48.035695Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T07:03:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T08:34:00.327462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:48.253803Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T07:03:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38777, "title": "Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:48.036136Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T07:03:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T08:33:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 13:40:50 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36026). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act) passed in August 2022, represents the most significant U.S. climate legislation in history, allocating \\$369 billion in clean energy investments. The law includes:\n\n* Tax credits for electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind power.\n* Incentives for domestic clean energy manufacturing (e.g., EV batteries, hydrogen).\n* Funding for emissions reductions and energy efficiency programs.\n* Methane fee regulations on oil and gas producers.\n* Support for nuclear energy and carbon capture technology.\n\nSince its passage, the IRA has faced political challenges:\n\n* **Republican opposition:** Many [GOP lawmakers](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/), particularly in the House, have called for repealing or scaling back the IRA’s climate spending, arguing it distorts markets and increases federal spending.\n* **Trump’s campaign pledge:** Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly [vowed](https://time.com/7262600/how-trump-is-trying-to-undo-the-inflation-reduction-act/) to roll back the IRA’s climate provisions, calling them a “disaster for American energy independence.”\n* **Industry response:** The clean energy sector has benefited from IRA subsidies, but fossil fuel advocates and some [manufacturing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/inflation-reduction-act-sparked-a-manufacturing-clean-energy-boom.html) groups have pushed for modifications, particularly on labor requirements tied to tax credits.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36026,\"question_id\":35460}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill that explicitly amends, repeals, or significantly modifies the climate-related provisions of the [Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) becomes law, by presidential signature or congressional override of a veto.\n\nFor this question to resolve as **Yes**, the bill must either restrict the eligibility criteria for IRA climate benefits (e.g., who qualifies for EV tax credits) or reduce the available funds for any climate program by any amount. This could happen in various ways, including but not limited to rescinding unspent funds, shifting budget allocations (even among different climate programs), and repealing or cutting clean energy tax credits, clean energy incentives, or environmental investments.", "fine_print": "The question will *not* resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n* The executive branch changes IRA implementation through rulemaking without congressional action.\n* Changes are made exclusively through appropriations riders (e.g., defunding programs in the budget process) without statutory amendments.\n* Partial modifications are passed that do not result in a reduction in climate funding or a restriction in climate benefits, such as adjusting implementation timelines or minor technical amendments.\n\nIf there is ambiguity about whether a bill qualifies, reports by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), official legislative summaries, and expert analysis from sources such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) might be used by Metaculus to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39400, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759998126.003346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759998126.003346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.7585080498131536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 32.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 13:40:50 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36026). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation_Reduction_Act) passed in August 2022, represents the most significant U.S. climate legislation in history, allocating \\$369 billion in clean energy investments. The law includes:\n\n* Tax credits for electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind power.\n* Incentives for domestic clean energy manufacturing (e.g., EV batteries, hydrogen).\n* Funding for emissions reductions and energy efficiency programs.\n* Methane fee regulations on oil and gas producers.\n* Support for nuclear energy and carbon capture technology.\n\nSince its passage, the IRA has faced political challenges:\n\n* **Republican opposition:** Many [GOP lawmakers](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/), particularly in the House, have called for repealing or scaling back the IRA’s climate spending, arguing it distorts markets and increases federal spending.\n* **Trump’s campaign pledge:** Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly [vowed](https://time.com/7262600/how-trump-is-trying-to-undo-the-inflation-reduction-act/) to roll back the IRA’s climate provisions, calling them a “disaster for American energy independence.”\n* **Industry response:** The clean energy sector has benefited from IRA subsidies, but fossil fuel advocates and some [manufacturing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/inflation-reduction-act-sparked-a-manufacturing-clean-energy-boom.html) groups have pushed for modifications, particularly on labor requirements tied to tax credits.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36026,\"question_id\":35460}}`" }, { "id": 39399, "title": "Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?", "url_title": "India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?", "slug": "india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:47.382640Z", "published_at": "2025-09-20T07:54:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T09:25:00.172111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:47.767151Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-20T07:54:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38776, "title": "Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:47.383041Z", "open_time": "2025-09-20T07:54:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T09:24:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIndia and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.", "fine_print": "* The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.", "post_id": 39399, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758358690.722489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758358690.722489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6639017630915967 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIndia and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027}}`" }, { "id": 39398, "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", "short_title": "SILG to survive the mid-term?", "url_title": "SILG to survive the mid-term?", "slug": "silg-to-survive-the-mid-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:46.773073Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T04:45:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T06:16:00.316941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:47.105165Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-05T04:45:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38775, "title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:46.773468Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T04:45:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T06:15:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-05-11 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7099,\"question_id\":7099}}`", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39398, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759643657.195989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8899999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759643657.195989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8899999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6850969794197794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-05-11 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7099,\"question_id\":7099}}`" }, { "id": 39397, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)", "short_title": "Which New Company In The S&P500 Q3 2025?", "url_title": "Which New Company In The S&P500 Q3 2025?", "slug": "which-new-company-in-the-sp500-q3-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:46.168912Z", "published_at": "2025-09-10T23:17:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T17:20:47.548850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:46.470022Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-10T23:17:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38774, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before October 2025? (HOOD)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:46.169324Z", "open_time": "2025-09-10T23:17:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T00:47:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38681). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFive possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trade_Desk) A technology company providing a platform for data-driven digital advertising management and optimization.\n* [HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinhood_Markets) A widely recognized fintech firm with significant retail investor engagement and growing product diversification.\n* [DDOG (Datadog, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datadog) A cloud-native monitoring and analytics platform that has shown strong growth and relevance in enterprise infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38681,\"question_id\":37915}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'HOOD'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if the corresponding company is announced to be officially added to the S\\&P 500 Index before October 1, 2025, according to [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/).", "fine_print": "* Subquestions will resolve based on official announcements from S\\&P Dow Jones Indices that a company will be added. The actual inclusion of the company to the index is not required for resolution.\n* Potential retractions or cancellations of an inclusion announcement will not affect the resolution of subquestions.", "post_id": 39397, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757551241.968794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757551241.968794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.7995952644602274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 56.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-24 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38681). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFive possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trade_Desk) A technology company providing a platform for data-driven digital advertising management and optimization.\n* [HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinhood_Markets) A widely recognized fintech firm with significant retail investor engagement and growing product diversification.\n* [DDOG (Datadog, Inc.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datadog) A cloud-native monitoring and analytics platform that has shown strong growth and relevance in enterprise infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38681,\"question_id\":37915}}`" }, { "id": 39395, "title": "Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?", "short_title": "PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?", "url_title": "PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?", "slug": "psoe-ahead-of-pp-in-polls-at-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.956760Z", "published_at": "2025-09-24T18:33:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T20:04:00.280526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:45.215540Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T18:33:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38772, "title": "Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.957163Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T18:33:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-24T20:03:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.", "fine_print": "• Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n\n • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 39395, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758743863.804024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758743863.804024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.24893629315174837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746}}`" }, { "id": 39394, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "short_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "url_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-rockies-lose-122-or-more-games-in-the-2025-mlb-season", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.413127Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T10:28:57.305892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.710484Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38771, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:44.413552Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T14:11:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T15:41:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-18 13:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38645). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIf the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38645,\"question_id\":37862}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 Major League Baseball season. \n\nThe Rockies' loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular accounts of the 2025 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). ", "fine_print": "Although teams are expected to play 162 games in the regular season, this question resolves as **No** if the Colorado Rockies have lost fewer than 122 games at the conclusion of the 2025 MLB regular season, regardless of whether games are cancelled or the season is truncated.\n\nThis question also resolves as **No** if it becomes mathematically impossible for the Rockies to lose 122 games.", "post_id": 39394, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756913192.663306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756913192.663306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.19660898841275762 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 17.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-18 13:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38645). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIf the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38645,\"question_id\":37862}}`" }, { "id": 39392, "title": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?", "short_title": "Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto at end-2025?", "url_title": "Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto at end-2025?", "slug": "google-meta-amazon-tesla-or-x-accept-crypto-at-end-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:43.268776Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T22:25:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T23:56:00.347532Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:43.585041Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T22:25:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38769, "title": "On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:43.269172Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T22:25:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T23:55:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31255). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nCryptocurrencies have gained significant mainstream attention since 2020, with major figures endorsing them, such as Elon Musk and Donald Trump who [has said](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d) that he plans to make the US the \"crypto capital of the planet\". After Trump's win in the US presidential elections, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed, reaching $100k for the first time.\n\nDespite that, cryptocurrencies are still not legal tender in the US and only a small minority of companies accept them as payment.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31255,\"question_id\":30906}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, X, or their subsidiaries accepts any cryptocurrency or crypto token as payment for any core service or product on December 31, 2025.", "fine_print": "* Crypto tokens include stablecoins, such as USDC.\n* The company has to include the product price in crypto in the product listing / details page or any step on the company website during checkout. If the price in crypto is only available when redirected to a payment service provider, this question will not resolve as **Yes**.\n* Any core service or product offered by these companies counts as long as it is not experimental and was not created primarily to allow crypto purchases.\n * Examples of offerings that would resolve this question as **Yes** include, but are not limited to\n * Google: Ads, Pixel phones, Youtube premium, Google Cloud compute\n * Meta: Ads, VR devices\n * Amazon: Anything purchased from their e-commerce platform, Kindle Unlimited, AWS compute\n * Tesla: Cars, Solar Panels, Powerwall\n * X: Ads, X Premium\n * Examples of offerings that would *not* resolve this question as **Yes** include, but are not limited to T-shirts with the company logo, Google phone chargers, and Telsa vehicle accessories (e.g., tires).\n* A company claiming it accepts crypto on its own will not resolve this question as **Yes**. At least one core product or service has to be actually purchasable with crypto.", "post_id": 39392, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759362669.604315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33999999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759362669.604315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2946170791993568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31255). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nCryptocurrencies have gained significant mainstream attention since 2020, with major figures endorsing them, such as Elon Musk and Donald Trump who [has said](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-stockpile-6f1314f5e99bbf47cc3ee6fc6178588d) that he plans to make the US the \"crypto capital of the planet\". After Trump's win in the US presidential elections, the price of bitcoin skyrocketed, reaching $100k for the first time.\n\nDespite that, cryptocurrencies are still not legal tender in the US and only a small minority of companies accept them as payment.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31255,\"question_id\":30906}}`" }, { "id": 39389, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "short_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "url_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "slug": "500000-palestinians-displaced", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:41.429329Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T05:41:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T07:12:00.272569Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:41.829247Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-26T05:41:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38766, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:41.429732Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T05:41:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T07:11:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-24 21:15:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19949). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIsrael has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19949,\"question_id\":19949}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025.\n\nReports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39389, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761461720.362801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16499999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761461720.362801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16499999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.16036963725207037 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.0, 8.0, 14.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-24 21:15:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19949). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIsrael has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19949,\"question_id\":19949}}`" }, { "id": 39388, "title": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?", "url_title": "Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?", "slug": "vox-27-youth-vote-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.747659Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T17:54:00.225903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:41.158796Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38765, "title": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.748062Z", "open_time": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 13:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nVox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n\n This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.", "fine_print": "• The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n\n • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n\n • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 39388, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758475363.970718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5566666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758475363.970718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5566666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4094809960292752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 13:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nVox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n\n This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747}}`" }, { "id": 39387, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "short_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "url_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "slug": "us-and-china-diplmoatic-engagement-on-nuclear-risk-reduction", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.032019Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T13:49:00.277287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.307936Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38764, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.032416Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-19 12:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36024). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36024,\"question_id\":35458}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the U.S. and China have engaged in discussions regarding nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction in 2025.\n\nThis could be any official meeting, working group, or diplomatic exchange between authorized representatives of both countries, or any track 1.5 or track 2 dialogues officially acknowledged by at least one of the U.S. or China.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if a new joint agreement, statement, or framework involving the U.S. and China is announced that addresses nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction.", "fine_print": "* Talks or agreements could involve any number of countries besides the U.S. and China, as long as both of them formally acknowledge or endorse them.\n* Talks or agreements do not have to center nuclear arms control or risk reduction, as long as they involve them to a significant amount.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding whether the criteria have been fulfilled, the question will be resolved based on the consensus of expert analysis from reputable sources, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Arms Control Association, or official U.S. and Chinese government statements.", "post_id": 39387, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759931249.539515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759931249.539515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4184247325669682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-19 12:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36024). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36024,\"question_id\":35458}}`" }, { "id": 39385, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "short_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "url_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "slug": "polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.121760Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T04:59:00.307686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.353192Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38762, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.122180Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:43:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31340). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31340,\"question_id\":30969}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2025, Polymarket or Manifold can legally offer markets in the United States using real money.", "fine_print": "* This has to be legal in at least one US state.\n* A public change in law or government policy must occur for this to resolve as **Yes**, which could include but is not limited to court decisions, public CFTC [<u>no-action letters</u>](https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/CFTCStaffLetters/index.htm), executive orders, or new laws. For example, if Manifold or Polymarket were to decide to accept risk under the status quo, satisfying the other criteria with no preceding change in law or government policy, that would not be sufficient. In the event the circumstances are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.\n* For the purposes of this question, real money includes anything that can be legally exchanged for fiat currency. For example, if Polymarket launched \"Polymarket chips\" that one could at any point legally both buy and sell using USD and it was legal to bet on Polymarket using those chips, this question would resolve as **Yes** (in the same way that gambling in a casino with chips is gambling with real money). Similarly any legal cryptocurrencies or crypto tokens (e.g., USDC) would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If Polymarket or Manifold markets operate using a custom currency (e.g., Manifold sweepcash), to resolve as **Yes** they have to explicitly state that users can exchange fiat currency for the custom currency and vice versa. Manifold's workaround that gives \"free\" sweepcash for mana purchases does not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Polymarket or Manifold restricting withdrawals only to money that has been previously traded would *not* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**. A restriction that would allow only money that has been won from a market resolution to be withdrawn, however, *would* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39385, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760590334.253817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760590334.253817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5995013610992861 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:43:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31340). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31340,\"question_id\":30969}}`" }, { "id": 39382, "title": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?", "url_title": "Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?", "slug": "inditex-top-10-in-eu-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.601172Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:30:00.368846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.826150Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38759, "title": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.601583Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.", "fine_print": "* [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.", "post_id": 39382, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758567038.725085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758567038.725085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4024875580542084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021}}`" }, { "id": 39381, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-itc-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.035186Z", "published_at": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T08:09:00.343337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.351123Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T17:19:34.527919Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38758, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.035590Z", "open_time": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36488). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36488,\"question_id\":35923}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Investment Tax Credits (ITC) described [26 U.S. Code § 48E](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-investment-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-48e/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those estabished by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for ITC only for specific categories of projects will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39381, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760946700.347371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.076 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760946700.347371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.076 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18303779948706553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 23.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36488). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36488,\"question_id\":35923}}`" } ] }
