Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4200
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4180", "results": [ { "id": 10753, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "short_title": "VA COVID-19 Hospitalizations >500 2022-05-20", "url_title": "VA COVID-19 Hospitalizations >500 2022-05-20", "slug": "va-covid-19-hospitalizations-500-2022-05-20", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-20T19:42:57.468196Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.539397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! This is a follow-on to the recently completed and highly successful Virginia Lightning Round Tournament. This tournament will consist of COVID-19 related questions written in conjunction with the University of Virginia to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open. You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10753, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-20T19:42:57.468196Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-23T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the 7-Day Moving Average of Confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations is equal to or greater than 500 at any time between April 20, 2022 to May 19, 2022 (inclusive). The \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the [Virginia Hospital COVID-19 Dashboard](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/) will be used as the definitive source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1651241303.654168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1651241303.654168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35874425385345593 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.3027319975569083, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 1.5829130969176743, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.18029738860722122, 0.5904801738213669, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.0093618533336866, "coverage": 0.9891802580803088, "baseline_score": 49.51482765428616, "spot_peer_score": 16.256985725401915, "peer_archived_score": 4.0093618533336866, "baseline_archived_score": 49.51482765428616, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.256985725401915 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1651241303.681907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1651241303.681907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7742019555411729, 0.22579804445882712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." }, { "id": 10747, "title": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Pledges to Not Join NATO 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine Pledges to Not Join NATO 2024", "slug": "ukraine-pledges-to-not-join-nato-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-20T00:01:36.791318Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.021779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 452, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10747, "title": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-20T00:01:36.791318Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T07:51:58.934743Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T07:51:58.934743Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When Ukraine applied for [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) membership in [2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit) their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, [ะกัะฐััั 116, 1-1](https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=254%EA%2F96%2D%E2%F0#Text)).\n\nIn December 2021, during the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, [Russia demanded veto power](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/) in any future decision on Ukraine's NATO membership. This would be in violation of NATO's [\"open door\" policy](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm), which NATO leaders [reaffirmed on March 24 2022](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_193719.htm?selectedLocale=en).\n\nStanley Sloan, an expert in transatlantic relations at Middlebury College and a former international security officer [said in February 2022](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article258774458.html) that Ukraine's near-term NATO membership was \"Unlikely, unlikely to happen. Just too fraught with too many difficulties at this point.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, the Ukrainian government makes an official statement or commitment that they will not seek membership to [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO). This commitment must be effective for a minimum of 1 year, or for an indefinite period. This commitment may be unconditional or conditional (such as in exchange for security guarantees from Russia); in this case, this question will resolve positively if such an agreement is affirmed by all parties at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n\nTo qualify for resolution, statements must be made by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers or the Minister of Foreign Affairs, or the official spokesperson of those offices. Statements by NATO officials or NATO members are not necessary nor sufficient for the resolution of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703949061.088926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 452, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703949061.088926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 452, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007803002385285248 ], "histogram": [ [ 29.799816023654657, 9.278784570651293, 0.37083441403969414, 0.26489642024019144, 0.0480092922035783, 0.23676596578064313, 0.016746321290510718, 0.05808838069210299, 0.5123504988753724, 0.0, 0.01096974579837975, 0.0, 0.005193789856425429, 0.0, 0.0009129105596645504, 6.289063143246048e-05, 6.881742136148013e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001254603785150365, 2.0971341125710724e-06, 0.0, 0.20960202325858665, 9.994283477653263e-06, 0.0009006192631580604, 0.0, 0.0031275517176193026, 0.0009422865326309055, 0.0, 0.19334165696148126, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1957763080557355e-06, 1.351460182930656e-06, 2.6061600067660504e-06, 3.182109047805725e-06, 1.97809756914537e-06, 0.0, 0.004878516140330258, 0.00015480892354479613, 0.0, 3.001831726409271e-06, 0.0006783435730751714, 7.785697555570329e-08, 2.784178636038119e-07, 2.9772585887280083e-06, 2.0798171819625361e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010941027710524305, 5.15586039564857e-07, 0.0013622826371910376, 1.3808051604795825e-08, 0.0008704058987982038, 4.604928663012158e-06, 0.0008122797491451599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.185479867294803e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.86362619137372e-06, 3.8134897846948417e-07, 5.714260047944965e-08, 8.237735782973317e-09, 2.4646418560043923e-08, 8.937888195176117e-07, 0.0, 3.5286955247647273e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 4.6568745566434013e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.830632844819722e-06, 7.70640586101871e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.012595573291344e-07, 2.6549853433004892e-05, 7.309684147498015e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.231090835749153e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.998109717062295, "coverage": 0.9999988519679268, "baseline_score": 79.85914235458137, "spot_peer_score": 12.193401165408527, "peer_archived_score": 28.998109717062295, "baseline_archived_score": 79.85914235458137, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.193401165408527 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703949061.15829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 452, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703949061.15829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 452, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When Ukraine applied for [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) membership in [2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit) their application was denied, though many NATO members (including the USA) were in favor of Ukraine's joining the alliance. In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, [ะกัะฐััั 116, 1-1](https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=254%EA%2F96%2D%E2%F0#Text)).\n\nIn December 2021, during the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, [Russia demanded veto power](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-unveils-security-guarantees-says-western-response-not-encouraging-2021-12-17/) in any future decision on Ukraine's NATO membership. This would be in violation of NATO's [\"open door\" policy](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm), which NATO leaders [reaffirmed on March 24 2022](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_193719.htm?selectedLocale=en).\n\nStanley Sloan, an expert in transatlantic relations at Middlebury College and a former international security officer [said in February 2022](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article258774458.html) that Ukraine's near-term NATO membership was \"Unlikely, unlikely to happen. Just too fraught with too many difficulties at this point.\"" }, { "id": 10746, "title": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Pledges to Not Join EU by 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine Pledges to Not Join EU by 2024", "slug": "ukraine-pledges-to-not-join-eu-by-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T23:47:48.161477Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.677574Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 365, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10746, "title": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T23:47:48.161477Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T08:14:37.759277Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T08:14:37.759277Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, [ะกัะฐััั 116, 1-1](https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=254%EA%2F96%2D%E2%F0#Text). On February 28, 2022, during the [Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), [Ukraine submitted an application to the EU](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-016cc6cbc65ae95286d825a4ebebd1c5), asking for urgent approval. On April 8, 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [offered Ukraine a faster approval process](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-chief-promises-speeded-up-process-ukraine-seek-membership-2022-04-08/) for their application, saying \"It will not as usual be a matter of years to form this opinion but I think a matter of weeks.\"\n\nOn March 29, 2022, [Russian Diplomat Vladimir Medinsky said](https://ukranews.com/en/news/845091-russia-not-opposed-to-ukraine-joining-eu-russian-delegation-head-medinsky) \"For its part, the Russian Federation does not object to Ukraine's desire to join the European Union.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, the Ukrainian government makes an official statement or commitment that they will not seek membership to the [European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_union). This commitment must be effective for a minimum of 6 months, or for an indefinite period. This commitment may be unconditional or conditional (such as in exchange for security guarantees from Russia); in this case, this question will resolve positively if such an agreement is affirmed by all parties at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024.\n\nTo qualify for resolution, statements must be made by the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers or the Minister of Foreign Affairs, or the official spokesperson of those offices. Statements by EU officials or other EU members are not necessary nor sufficient for the resolution of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703949077.342089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 365, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703949077.342089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 365, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007056344997744716 ], "histogram": [ [ 27.485294066760126, 7.106338846949001, 0.040509851845536314, 0.5680845202929207, 0.17751131580069146, 0.3532979633956346, 0.030522875697747354, 0.11689689413724126, 3.7222192771232586e-06, 0.0049333476889003745, 0.6164556815894684, 0.0, 3.866014766758179e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.390700175576957e-05, 4.7883792060707085e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1994674698679787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002147412225692281, 0.0025034233947116417, 0.0006561742763235992, 0.0012367113884076012, 1.718564377863904e-06, 0.0031903613158781366, 0.0, 2.8512525158357173e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5105164504509036e-07, 5.531933448332427e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.091114410310953e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8099605732395006e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002600564514457385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015674461364480901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001289505436783747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.3723340284628825e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.403621082338816, "coverage": 0.9999986784334751, "baseline_score": 97.82943415606249, "spot_peer_score": 5.466581813200548, "peer_archived_score": 7.403621082338816, "baseline_archived_score": 97.82943415606249, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.466581813200548 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703949077.419158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 365, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703949077.419158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 365, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 735, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2019, in a 334-51 vote, Ukraine amended their constitution to include their intentions of joining the EU and NATO (Ukraine Constitution, [ะกัะฐััั 116, 1-1](https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/cgi-bin/laws/main.cgi?nreg=254%EA%2F96%2D%E2%F0#Text). On February 28, 2022, during the [Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), [Ukraine submitted an application to the EU](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-016cc6cbc65ae95286d825a4ebebd1c5), asking for urgent approval. On April 8, 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [offered Ukraine a faster approval process](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-chief-promises-speeded-up-process-ukraine-seek-membership-2022-04-08/) for their application, saying \"It will not as usual be a matter of years to form this opinion but I think a matter of weeks.\"\n\nOn March 29, 2022, [Russian Diplomat Vladimir Medinsky said](https://ukranews.com/en/news/845091-russia-not-opposed-to-ukraine-joining-eu-russian-delegation-head-medinsky) \"For its part, the Russian Federation does not object to Ukraine's desire to join the European Union.\"" }, { "id": 10745, "title": "Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Russian Control of New Territory 2024-01-01", "url_title": "Russian Control of New Territory 2024-01-01", "slug": "russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T23:44:32.090352Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.540258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 607, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": 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"description": "In February 2014, [Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have [remained under the control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas) of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves [Donetsk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic). The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be [terrorist organizations](https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/ukraines-prosecutor-general-classifies-self-declared-donetsk-and-luhansk-republics-as-terrorist-organizations-348212.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2024, Russia de facto controls any land or territory outside the Crimean peninsula or the Donestk/Luhansk oblasts, which were Ukrainian territory on January 1, 2014. Breakaway secessionist states in Ukraine recieving support from Russian armed forces will be considered \"Russian controlled\" for the purposes of this question.\n\nMetaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine the extent of Russian de facto control on January 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934275.280921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 607, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934275.280921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 607, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.006000000000000005, 0.994 ], "means": [ 0.9628331202930922 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0007891814373203167, 0.010580805523656787, 0.0, 0.6641235282160383, 0.0, 0.024506949911449603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008850051917950251, 0.00027748842142768593, 0.0, 2.155449884572033e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.282637903714002e-06, 8.496225153530145e-06, 0.0011084246683733616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024668322924780105, 0.0, 5.517652232700166e-05, 0.0, 1.5645030568987476e-06, 0.001464199697271772, 2.0053737182780937e-05, 0.0, 0.0009059312425230961, 0.0, 0.32583486522998223, 0.009443911029133169, 2.521210599975441e-08, 3.27041000561495e-09, 3.447846481349156e-05, 0.00039702195479822215, 8.416030896953381e-10, 3.4152666428347166e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015320817997941682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.333373317641705e-06, 0.0007170611573795307, 0.0, 4.657353949714871e-05, 1.1529358326730156e-05, 6.196937619086371e-05, 0.0005462672645075034, 8.154202409607558e-06, 0.0005888306593211626, 0.0003645022409423315, 0.0, 0.0007935055405625721, 0.00040372922161291766, 0.0017082794803568984, 0.0, 2.965293604664327e-05, 0.005132725694045409, 2.0992987466836434e-05, 7.326681497845305e-05, 0.0001829769356750507, 4.6780848188589937e-07, 0.006221076913173411, 0.0017534954562549898, 0.00038274581965975005, 6.995631643025878e-06, 0.0003216404762708175, 1.039687586928912, 3.037118401196744e-07, 0.0, 0.0006837575876928026, 0.00043774150317039463, 0.2032620947622665, 0.004279025457137368, 0.00462624523039558, 0.020162428143546365, 0.0011454871330000838, 0.012832717206118466, 0.006635446582940716, 0.01308622206143244, 0.0005123744435473656, 0.19404751134468984, 0.03701732376757243, 0.003140860728931282, 0.014983883260209848, 0.5072534878631408, 0.0022267727319920864, 0.4755415430876272, 0.015963942905371575, 0.32294235509300284, 0.5676150753969016, 0.07897928773645382, 0.1394064010707249, 0.3780286088930931, 0.8736161687867391, 0.5723941465272163, 41.222044578592275 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.758864754662326, "coverage": 0.9999982898802597, "baseline_score": 57.10416786110256, "spot_peer_score": 9.710916697559762, "peer_archived_score": 31.758864754662326, "baseline_archived_score": 57.10416786110256, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.710916697559762 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934275.355747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 607, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934275.355747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 607, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.016598565993207526, 0.9834014340067925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2072, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2014, [Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have [remained under the control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas) of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves [Donetsk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic). The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be [terrorist organizations](https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/ukraines-prosecutor-general-classifies-self-declared-donetsk-and-luhansk-republics-as-terrorist-organizations-348212.html)." }, { "id": 10744, "title": "Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?", "short_title": "Hungary Leaves EU before 2030", "url_title": "Hungary Leaves EU before 2030", "slug": "hungary-leaves-eu-before-2030", "author_id": 121219, "author_username": "andreferretti", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T21:52:40.058759Z", "published_at": "2022-05-04T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T23:37:15.292429Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-04T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-04T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10744, "title": "Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T21:52:40.058759Z", "open_time": "2022-05-04T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-06T13:41:11.894545Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-06T13:41:11.894545Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> In 2021, the Parliament of Hungary promulgated the so-called Hungarian anti-LGBT law, which aims to ban all content for children that may \"promote homosexuality\" and which makes a relationship between LGBT and pedophilia. This received a heavy negative response from other EU countries, with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte suggesting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbรกn to leave the EU.\n\n> Hungary is legally allowed to leave the EU according to Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Therefore, the country could leave the union after the organization of a referendum, for which it would be necessary to change the Constitution of Hungary with the support of two-thirds of the Hungarian parliament. However, withdrawal from the EU is not popular among the Hungarian public. In 2020, 85% of polled Hungarians supported the membership of the country in the union.\n\n[Source: Wikipedia article on the Hungarian withdrawal from the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_withdrawal_from_the_European_Union).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, Hungary triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also will resolve positively if other EU members expel Hungary through some other mechanism (currently there is no mechanism in the EU for expelling a member state).", "fine_print": "If, before January 1, 2030, the European Union no longer exists as a political entity for the coordination of trade and migration, this question will resolve **ambiguously**.", "post_id": 10744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762028162.509126, "end_time": 1764110157.938917, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762028162.509126, "end_time": 1764110157.938917, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06625207953615683 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.7402379848441771, 0.7508383430999842, 2.8801950091231565, 1.8280987653404632, 1.6752505488481106, 0.7044901145327893, 0.12373300046868932, 0.0, 0.026884426431469374, 3.5260057613119384, 0.0, 0.10819054156401371, 0.22063420448207036, 0.0, 0.8556323766113113, 0.39268564247023, 0.0134789797452288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10373476247701088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05148563848712296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08410645441221705, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007887135632217103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017180449892146496 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287059.989375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287059.989375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9911918362561754, 0.008808163743824626 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> In 2021, the Parliament of Hungary promulgated the so-called Hungarian anti-LGBT law, which aims to ban all content for children that may \"promote homosexuality\" and which makes a relationship between LGBT and pedophilia. This received a heavy negative response from other EU countries, with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte suggesting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbรกn to leave the EU.\n\n> Hungary is legally allowed to leave the EU according to Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Therefore, the country could leave the union after the organization of a referendum, for which it would be necessary to change the Constitution of Hungary with the support of two-thirds of the Hungarian parliament. However, withdrawal from the EU is not popular among the Hungarian public. In 2020, 85% of polled Hungarians supported the membership of the country in the union.\n\n[Source: Wikipedia article on the Hungarian withdrawal from the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_withdrawal_from_the_European_Union)." }, { "id": 10743, "title": "By 2050, will it be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income?", "short_title": "Intercontinental zero-emission flight in 2050", "url_title": "Intercontinental zero-emission flight in 2050", "slug": "intercontinental-zero-emission-flight-in-2050", "author_id": 117706, "author_username": "benjsmith", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T21:49:33.201049Z", "published_at": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.422310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10743, "title": "By 2050, will it be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T21:49:33.201049Z", "open_time": "2022-09-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-09-22T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-09-22T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2021, at the [77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston](http://web.archive.org/web/20220216200932/https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/flynetzero/), a resolution was passed by IATA member airlines committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.\n\nExploratory work is ongoing to achieve flight without burning fossil fuel. It may be that net-zero flight is achieved by offsetting emissions. But it could also be that new technology allows for emissions-free flight, specifically, carrying passengers through the air without emitting any greenhouse gases. To disrupt fossil fuel flights this would have to be relatively affordable.\n\nA useful benchmark for \"affordable\" is in relation to the median household income. Median US household income in 2021 [was around $67,000](http://web.archive.org/web/20220121063506/https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html), or $1280/week. At the time of writing this question, a one-way flight from New York to London could be purchased for around $350, or roughly 1/4 of one week's median household income. Allowing that technology might not quite become competitive with that level, this question asks whether zero-emissions flight could be achieved for less than 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2050. 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2021 is about $642.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an emissions-free one-way flight from New York to London could be purchased for less than half of one week's US median household income in 2050.", "fine_print": "- excluding \"specials\" and promotions\n - tickets should be available at the specified price in at least 6 of the 12 months of the year\n - \"emission-free\" or \"zero-emissions\" means no more than 1 g CO2e per revenue passenger km emitted to propel the aircraft while taking off and in flight; in 2019 the average was 90g (https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CO2-commercial-aviation-oct2020.pdf) This would be a ~99% reduction and leaves room for small amounts of incidental fuel use.\n - CO2e means CO2 equivalent, a measure of greenhouse gases including CO2 emissions and emissions of other greenhouse gases as equivalent to CO2 in their effects on global warming\n - Excludes indirect flight emissions, e.g., emissions from construction of aircraft, airline operations outside the physical flight of the aircraft, food preparation, taxiing on the ground, emissions from passengers themselves, operating air conditioning, etc. Any emissions used to generate electricity that propels the aircraft will not be included. Only emissions included are those used in fuel to propel the aircraft while taking off and in the air.\n\nFor clarity:\n\n - the affordability target is set relative to 1/2 of the US median household income in 2050, using any estimate produced by the US Census Bureau.\n - the flight cannot be \"emissions free\" by use of offsets or credits--the flight must be physically propelled without more emissions than the small allowable amount specified above", "post_id": 10743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758592042.502851, "end_time": 1764905068.850706, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758592042.502851, "end_time": 1764905068.850706, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41212904803788114 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7659474000616184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289581.121932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289581.121932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7610061237465382, 0.23899387625346177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2021, at the [77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston](http://web.archive.org/web/20220216200932/https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/flynetzero/), a resolution was passed by IATA member airlines committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.\n\nExploratory work is ongoing to achieve flight without burning fossil fuel. It may be that net-zero flight is achieved by offsetting emissions. But it could also be that new technology allows for emissions-free flight, specifically, carrying passengers through the air without emitting any greenhouse gases. To disrupt fossil fuel flights this would have to be relatively affordable.\n\nA useful benchmark for \"affordable\" is in relation to the median household income. Median US household income in 2021 [was around $67,000](http://web.archive.org/web/20220121063506/https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html), or $1280/week. At the time of writing this question, a one-way flight from New York to London could be purchased for around $350, or roughly 1/4 of one week's median household income. Allowing that technology might not quite become competitive with that level, this question asks whether zero-emissions flight could be achieved for less than 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2050. 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2021 is about $642." }, { "id": 10738, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:41:16.530967Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.554266Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10738, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:41:16.530967Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T08:14:23.459815Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T08:14:23.459815Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2014, [Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have [remained under the control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas) of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves [Donetsk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic). The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be [terrorist organizations](https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/ukraines-prosecutor-general-classifies-self-declared-donetsk-and-luhansk-republics-as-terrorist-organizations-348212.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, the Ukrainian government or military has control of at least 90% of the [Donetsk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast) and at least 90% of the [Luhansk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_Oblast), measured by area.\n\nDe facto control can occur through any means, including military victory or ceasefire and peace negotiations. \n\nMetaculus will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine the extent of Ukrainian control in these regions", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10738, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038714.612162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038714.612162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01042184612528968 ], "histogram": [ [ 29.091389664959415, 10.645790994336709, 1.6048028073900797, 0.1639709737111661, 0.08288191407499701, 0.6917609672827674, 0.010958227947025756, 0.16461922862514458, 0.053061638750998286, 0.010029241865363978, 0.13708571508548012, 0.07351903173451046, 0.017676291497938732, 0.028456752977586548, 0.0032162572809994105, 0.020694610740013143, 0.01599354755338559, 0.014484063616116028, 0.0002980560386556194, 0.0018013145366984062, 0.05711507374484494, 5.5076355938127916e-05, 0.03145513342689558, 9.262529352675185e-07, 0.24678507006238146, 0.07727035109853292, 0.0006310680932204725, 0.1858917349370482, 0.004840295125354782, 0.0, 0.002020313654009203, 0.00025772270938080794, 3.178101676374362e-06, 0.014214436067251663, 7.570803776728024e-06, 0.0010841617794937392, 5.7339449565185806e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5249897051441556e-08, 0.00020942852440376396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.968010105949462e-05, 5.51272605154816e-05, 3.5463908362327836e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016071249449003055, 3.686942929998929e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821618837352996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.242944228027091e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017041075427136207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.8804061250438e-06, 3.561111982516031e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0195678058378788e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01213935726437413, 7.317378664498082e-07, 2.8865911855125186e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015543060989309018, 7.52688822874761e-05, 0.0, 1.6149540317476416e-07, 4.5467770886075017e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011026304705105152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004953564318873993 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.52651399308138, "coverage": 0.9999981518134637, "baseline_score": 79.45615062443315, "spot_peer_score": 1.2960761102237668, "peer_archived_score": 17.52651399308138, "baseline_archived_score": 79.45615062443315, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2960761102237668 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038714.677764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038714.677764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2014, [Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) from Ukraine. While not officially annexed in 2014, some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have [remained under the control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas) of two Russian-aligned governments since the invasion. These two provinces have claimed independence from Ukraine, calling themselves [Donetsk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic). The Ukrainian Government considers the DPR and LPR to be [terrorist organizations](https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/ukraines-prosecutor-general-classifies-self-declared-donetsk-and-luhansk-republics-as-terrorist-organizations-348212.html)." }, { "id": 10737, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Control of Sevastopol Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian Control of Sevastopol Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-control-of-sevastopol-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:38:30.587364Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.992212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 101, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", 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null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The city of [Sevastopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol) in Crimea currently holds the Russian [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) in its naval base, which has been crucial to [Russia's operations in Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war) since 2014.\n\nAs the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it is possible that Ukraine will [reclaim previously annexed pieces of land](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/peace-talks-russia-ukraine.html) claimed by Russia in 2014, including Crimea. This would return Sevastapol to Ukrainian control, and could potentially remove a major Russian naval hold in the Black Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if more than 50% of [Sevastopol's area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_and_municipal_divisions_of_Sevastopol) is under de facto Ukrainian military and political control on January 1, 2024. Metaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international military intelligence statements to determine resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10737, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948629.93506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948629.93506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008928957123218756 ], "histogram": [ [ 36.73390973244841, 9.328640208465066, 0.87752901091117, 0.8694998146017217, 0.04034377388088429, 1.2433104384398321, 0.0592673108883193, 0.03478791286158003, 0.019336404415482455, 0.0005782606620896075, 0.1036808306621472, 0.010022844853822946, 0.02399862595839117, 0.007234820209889683, 0.012179787963754305, 0.00014329259565701638, 0.0003305072899317571, 2.724374136480109e-07, 0.19298962991540536, 0.0025959699046716376, 0.019735429886035293, 0.002467307084287045, 0.00017486257167718415, 3.1459408946716447e-06, 1.0390865067136658e-06, 0.050975544594947304, 0.010212822777748883, 2.1430179984737414e-07, 8.705890636549134e-06, 0.0, 0.0024978386437132043, 0.0014931163540181354, 0.004615312293675318, 8.820542270989958e-07, 0.0, 0.00016485701466272025, 1.4729303244208075e-05, 1.9349149560567893e-05, 0.0006613628703627903, 0.0014350759530471538, 3.444967906530823e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.3344077232501834e-07, 3.645218534153302e-06, 0.000138990635558628, 2.9830939492869067e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.440998402486872e-07, 5.844320821321716e-06, 0.0, 0.008887929663666786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.772479270674382e-05, 3.512117410850297e-05, 0.0, 0.0010737232963105095, 0.0009912768666579988, 0.0, 0.0011687060491122824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009148480513441402, 0.020651919614395484, 5.931596927805598e-07, 2.345684886318976e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7687393612832783e-06, 0.0, 0.0592442674388462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030230464990432466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03110341483853799, 0.008472771086573554, 1.7045766112584176e-06, 0.0, 1.4230344587757824e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010455455747462599, 0.0, 0.00014643823309661242, 0.0, 0.012725626211719628 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.891456145052, "coverage": 0.9999972326280533, "baseline_score": 90.7343242713756, "spot_peer_score": 11.519346510332394, "peer_archived_score": 13.891456145052, "baseline_archived_score": 90.7343242713756, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.519346510332394 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948630.00932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948630.00932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1857, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The city of [Sevastopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sevastopol) in Crimea currently holds the Russian [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) in its naval base, which has been crucial to [Russia's operations in Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war) since 2014.\n\nAs the Russo-Ukrainian conflict continues and peace negotiations begin in earnest, it is possible that Ukraine will [reclaim previously annexed pieces of land](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/peace-talks-russia-ukraine.html) claimed by Russia in 2014, including Crimea. This would return Sevastapol to Ukrainian control, and could potentially remove a major Russian naval hold in the Black Sea." }, { "id": 10736, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine Controls Mariupol on January 1, 2023", "url_title": "Ukraine Controls Mariupol on January 1, 2023", "slug": "ukraine-controls-mariupol-on-january-1-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:36:33.846858Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.577871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 348, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10736, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:36:33.846858Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T08:29:08.537321Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T08:29:08.537321Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The city of Mariupol has been [under siege](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol) by Russian armed forces from February 24, 2022 through April 2022.\n\n[The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/mariupol-important-russian-forces-moscow-port-city) on March 22: \n\n> \"Local authorities say 80% of the cityโs infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russiaโs ultimatum to surrender Mariupol.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Maripol's city area is under de facto Ukrainian military and political control on January 1, 2023.\n\nMetaculus Admins will consider all credible media reports and international government intelligence statements to determine resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501416.85269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501416.85269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014253177249313364 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 33.139885419951476, 0.38188728606829564, 0.0746060809505025, 0.9596837187139781, 0.642665862669574, 0.034916785025831364, 0.0037006289128248934, 0.0048839963578437146, 0.0023718130001117695, 0.3039533051190575, 0.0016372494653503224, 0.000423031209755168, 0.004237201937829717, 6.550235275884015e-05, 0.029008448332848505, 0.037016156021311135, 0.0, 8.076476349542756e-06, 4.308081277825693e-05, 0.019413446745245172, 7.466522558623906e-05, 0.0008074250777143273, 5.574435051116018e-06, 0.0604675628677607, 0.0006132092671999299, 0.0007397228537191901, 0.007682142597470174, 0.024687137253025727, 0.0, 0.06269425685220711, 0.0, 0.0006483696302452195, 0.00068012556838841, 0.0, 1.7261910205341757e-06, 0.0, 0.0013428309441079148, 6.013470478170754e-06, 1.5893697353414196e-07, 0.0033685371487020958, 8.617140530167602e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001043753442473926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009672570318323004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.403779516333428e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005123258322168773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.376165596473282e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1743942136380312e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.06442219311549e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2966343754230314e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003241614667261201 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.94070487560812, "coverage": 0.9999924745668418, "baseline_score": 83.81781893639254, "spot_peer_score": 20.928637223079658, "peer_archived_score": 19.94070487560812, "baseline_archived_score": 83.81781893639254, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.928637223079658 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501416.908796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501416.908796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The city of Mariupol has been [under siege](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol) by Russian armed forces from February 24, 2022 through April 2022.\n\n[The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/mariupol-important-russian-forces-moscow-port-city) on March 22: \n\n> \"Local authorities say 80% of the cityโs infrastructure has been destroyed, some of it beyond repair. The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russiaโs ultimatum to surrender Mariupol.\"" }, { "id": 10735, "title": "Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?", "short_title": "Security Guarantee for Ukraine before 2024", "url_title": "Security Guarantee for Ukraine before 2024", "slug": "security-guarantee-for-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:33:38.186861Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.559673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:10:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 397, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"created_at": "2022-04-19T17:33:38.186861Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T08:29:21.176206Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T08:29:21.176206Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the [most recent round](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/peace-talks-russia-ukraine.html) of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29. \n\n[According to Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/france-ukraine-macron-nato-russia-security-guarantee-russia-1696367), in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said \"Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia cannot end without concrete security guarantees strong enough to deter Moscow.\"\n\nSebastian Sprenger from Defense News [wrote on April 4, 2022](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/04/europeans-weigh-scope-of-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/), \n\n> \"Last week, Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraineโs deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said her government envisions a security-guarantees regime endorsed by Budapest Memorandum signatories as well as the United Nations Security Council. [...]\n\n> \"Sean Monaghan, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the legal format of whatever security guarantees the West can muster for Ukraine will be ultimately secondary. More important, and difficult, he told Defense News, will be the willingness of European populations to back them by military force.\"\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, Ukraine has [entered confidential talks with Germany](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-confidential-talks-over-ukraine-guarantees-scholz-2022-04-06/) about possible security guarantees Germany could offer the country. On April 9, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [visited Kyiv](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kyiv-war-russia/), offering support in continuation with the [2022 UK-Poland-Ukraine Alliance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British%E2%80%93Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_trilateral_pact)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2024, any country enters a legal agreement with Ukraine to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine with the promise to back that guarantee with the deployment of military personnel. Official statements by Ukraine and their cosignatory will be required for resolution. A security guarantee from Russia to Ukraine will be excluded from resolving this question.\n\nThe security guarantee must protect the sovereignty of at least some portion of Ukrainian territory from invasion by either land, sea, or air, or to aid Ukraine with military deployments under other conditions of the treaty. The security guarantee must last for at least 6 months or indefinitely. Agreements to provide Ukraine with any other form of assistance, including funding or weapons, will not be sufficient to resolve the question.\n\nThis question asks specifically about security guarantees outside the frameworks of [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO), [EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy), or [UN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) membership", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10735, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948711.42022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948711.42022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.014698097531885489 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.92254494497045, 9.146315587170003, 0.27826564391417863, 0.413740333803487, 0.19127151256253985, 0.44858675768424816, 0.05390642754565855, 0.056669904375324515, 0.004201415086609185, 0.03141170242384215, 0.034118608424317506, 0.00019295508288525362, 0.39697776356163145, 0.002514330038518695, 2.367146249051506e-05, 0.00017190737000045994, 0.046387683327319476, 0.0, 0.00030292140239476963, 6.577776437438692e-05, 0.03557249608233858, 0.18875230914459099, 2.5736152991235954e-08, 0.00018699699082250272, 0.008367366915174661, 0.9250588532792539, 0.15421789717433534, 0.009641754583173009, 0.0005438092238561721, 0.0, 0.000393357255611789, 0.00015183946908688332, 0.0005969336172785576, 1.0273614500773516e-05, 0.0003808855599100291, 5.839584148200282e-06, 4.489882645395093e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 9.000458997077639e-06, 4.494174080183005e-06, 8.714140107592074e-06, 6.380615663492162e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 7.422720632882762e-06, 0.0, 8.472816365067999e-06, 0.0, 2.0571962428863722e-06, 2.6774453742296336e-06, 2.0790059613435496e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2250222767904681e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1906330143034885e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7593611029184643e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9808732406110403e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0001391180747998e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.207734677804678e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010093300778968455, 9.139635949005423e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.314624609730329e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.22084435535073e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.377429665260067, "coverage": 0.999986140620553, "baseline_score": 84.85801625161758, "spot_peer_score": -7.8086845012654615, "peer_archived_score": 19.377429665260067, "baseline_archived_score": 84.85801625161758, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.8086845012654615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948711.483207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948711.483207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 397, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine and Russia entered peace negotiations in March 2022, with the [most recent round](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/world/europe/peace-talks-russia-ukraine.html) of negotiations in Istanbul on March 29. \n\n[According to Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/france-ukraine-macron-nato-russia-security-guarantee-russia-1696367), in April 2022 Ukrainian official Igor Zhovkva said \"Ukraine's long-running conflict with Russia cannot end without concrete security guarantees strong enough to deter Moscow.\"\n\nSebastian Sprenger from Defense News [wrote on April 4, 2022](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/04/europeans-weigh-scope-of-security-guarantees-for-ukraine/), \n\n> \"Last week, Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraineโs deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, said her government envisions a security-guarantees regime endorsed by Budapest Memorandum signatories as well as the United Nations Security Council. [...]\n\n> \"Sean Monaghan, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the legal format of whatever security guarantees the West can muster for Ukraine will be ultimately secondary. More important, and difficult, he told Defense News, will be the willingness of European populations to back them by military force.\"\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, Ukraine has [entered confidential talks with Germany](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-confidential-talks-over-ukraine-guarantees-scholz-2022-04-06/) about possible security guarantees Germany could offer the country. On April 9, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson [visited Kyiv](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson-ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kyiv-war-russia/), offering support in continuation with the [2022 UK-Poland-Ukraine Alliance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British%E2%80%93Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_trilateral_pact)" }, { "id": 10734, "title": "Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Recognizes Crimea/LNR/DNR before 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine Recognizes Crimea/LNR/DNR before 2024", "slug": "ukraine-recognizes-crimealnrdnr-before-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T17:30:31.802363Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.962714Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prior to the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Russian President Vladmir Putin formally recognized the [Donetsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic) as independent states. Russia also annexed the [Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Crimea) in February 2014. Ukraine formally considers all 3 territories to be \"[temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine)\"\n\nOn March 7, 2022, Russian spokesperson [Dmitry Peskov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/) Russia would be willing to halt military operations if Ukraine agreed to demands which included recognition of the independence of Crimea, DNR and LNR.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, the government of Ukraine formally recognizes any territory [previously held by Ukraine on January 1, 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) as being independent, or as the territory of another nation. This may resolve positively on recognition of the Republic of Crimea, the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, or any other former Ukranian territories comprising at least 2,000 km^2 in total. An official statement by either a member of the Ukrainian executive branch of government, or the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs will be required for resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948674.279224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 447, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948674.279224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 447, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006140837688060421 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.027228442615993, 9.03097929657888, 0.8965771010201226, 0.2098107019928806, 0.026256009137891535, 0.10172054369401422, 0.0022642438887159784, 0.00027909662573835496, 0.0007549758258324868, 0.001109018296003359, 0.007131058747822238, 8.689469698483378e-06, 0.004855045008754056, 0.00012732197642625448, 0.0, 6.755759700621782e-05, 8.719011498641836e-07, 7.730779198151765e-06, 9.629189832460398e-06, 0.1874114215839251, 0.2753007788020657, 0.0046807642011032526, 2.4202177308581088e-08, 0.00024429104477977423, 0.0009118214478266437, 0.0016558103111615136, 0.00032150371083612553, 6.2857642645514676e-06, 2.3599476457937942e-05, 0.0, 9.88117956289779e-06, 7.95768203168495e-08, 0.0, 0.0013407429170052367, 0.0, 6.176495798717497e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.153120198933019e-09, 1.520596570596109e-06, 0.0010132749560112977, 2.5949213227253906e-05, 0.0020650514213781594, 0.0013848620692311381, 1.320890634374976e-08, 0.0009444312787104858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4345998300238012e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.705008047806486e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9503232971154005e-05, 0.0, 4.859285084224581e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.588550552012726e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9872590099184643e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.149600496235284e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.550781381668868, "coverage": 0.9999980114121669, "baseline_score": 93.38696266968357, "spot_peer_score": 27.451435934187092, "peer_archived_score": 15.550781381668868, "baseline_archived_score": 93.38696266968357, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.451435934187092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948674.34317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 447, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948674.34317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 447, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1064, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prior to the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Russian President Vladmir Putin formally recognized the [Donetsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic) and [Luhansk People's Republics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic) as independent states. Russia also annexed the [Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Crimea) in February 2014. Ukraine formally considers all 3 territories to be \"[temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_territories_of_Ukraine)\"\n\nOn March 7, 2022, Russian spokesperson [Dmitry Peskov said](https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-will-stop-moment-if-ukraine-meets-2022-03-07/) Russia would be willing to halt military operations if Ukraine agreed to demands which included recognition of the independence of Crimea, DNR and LNR." }, { "id": 10733, "title": "Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?", "short_title": "Twitter Acquisition by Non-Elon Musk in 2022", "url_title": "Twitter Acquisition by Non-Elon Musk in 2022", "slug": "twitter-acquisition-by-non-elon-musk-in-2022", "author_id": 115250, "author_username": "bte", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-19T16:09:44.174166Z", "published_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.468506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:07:00Z", "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10733, "title": "Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-04-19T16:09:44.174166Z", "open_time": "2022-06-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-15T00:49:11.408780Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-15T00:49:11.408780Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T18:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:06:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10662/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nElon Musk [has offered](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/07/elon-musk-twitter-timeline-deal) $54.20 to acquire all of Twitter's outstanding shares and take the company private. The board has responded by adopting a poison pill clause that is triggered when anyone acquires more than 15 percent stake. The board is also, presumably, entertaining competing offers to acquire the company and could at any time announce that a deal has been reached.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Twitter board publicly announces it has accepted a bid from an acquiring party which does not include any personal financing from Elon Musk before January 1, 2023. Resolution will be determined based on credible media sources. Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf an acquiring party including personal funding from Elon Musk acquires Twitter in 2022, but Twitter is later sold in 2022 to an acquiring party which does not include any personal funding from Elon Musk, this would still resolve as **Yes**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672494189.284589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672494189.284589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018796158900492185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 18.71895406328971, 0.3205245746671779, 0.0003077680909476925, 0.0, 0.2655264699207711, 0.0012777297525129875, 7.223009628617758e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003465327274512876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001092971552096456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26817667098721665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.236517895335458, "coverage": 0.9993662922217537, "baseline_score": 93.23163397226503, "spot_peer_score": 10.395978858954576, "peer_archived_score": 5.236517895335458, "baseline_archived_score": 93.23163397226503, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.395978858954576 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672494189.367746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672494189.367746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 218, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10662/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nElon Musk [has offered](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/07/elon-musk-twitter-timeline-deal) $54.20 to acquire all of Twitter's outstanding shares and take the company private. The board has responded by adopting a poison pill clause that is triggered when anyone acquires more than 15 percent stake. The board is also, presumably, entertaining competing offers to acquire the company and could at any time announce that a deal has been reached." }, { "id": 10709, "title": "Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese CO2 Emissions Peak before 2030", "url_title": "Chinese CO2 Emissions Peak before 2030", "slug": "chinese-co2-emissions-peak-before-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-18T19:01:54.647108Z", "published_at": "2022-04-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:13:14.897800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "๐ฑ", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10709, "title": "Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-04-18T19:01:54.647108Z", "open_time": "2022-04-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China reach net zero carbon emissions?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10712/date-of-chinese-carbon-neutrality/)\n\n----\n\nChina's [CO2 emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1988..latest&facet=none&country=CHN~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) in 2019 were 9.44 billion tons, higher than any other nation, including the US (5.63 billion tons) and the EU (3.97 billion tons). However, on a per capita basis, China's emissions (6.59 tons per person) are only moderately higher than the world average (4.47 tons per person), and significantly less than the US (17.10 tons per person).\n\nAhead of the [2021 UN Climate Change Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference), China [committed](https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China%E2%80%99s%20Achievements,%20New%20Goals%20and%20New%20Measures%20for%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions.pdf) to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030, and carbon neutrality before 2060. [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/) called these policies \"Insufficient\", consistent with a world of 3C of warming by 2100, and when considered as a \"fair share target\", called them \"highly insufficient\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if China's annual CO2 emissions in the years 2030 to 2039 (inclusive) are lower than the maximum emissions of any year from 2020-2029, according to [the Global Carbon Project](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1930..latest&facet=none&country=CHN~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country). In other words, if any year from 2030 to 2039 has higher annual CO2 emissions than the maximum year from 2020 to 2029, this question will resolve as \"No\".\n\nThis question will concern CO2 only (excluding other greenhouse gases measured as [CO2-equivalents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential)) and will measure China's consumption-based emissions (adding emissions produced by imported goods, and removing emissions from exports). For example, this figure for 2019 was 9.44 billion tons.\n\nIf the Global Carbon Project does not provide this data continuously through 2020 to 2039, an alternative credible source may be selcted by Metaculus Admins, or they may resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763534534.553277, "end_time": 1764654986.064555, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763534534.553277, "end_time": 1764654986.064555, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7805336796335488 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290267.444166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290267.444166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3530999568145151, 0.6469000431854849 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 168, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China reach net zero carbon emissions?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10712/date-of-chinese-carbon-neutrality/)\n\n----\n\nChina's [CO2 emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1988..latest&facet=none&country=CHN~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) in 2019 were 9.44 billion tons, higher than any other nation, including the US (5.63 billion tons) and the EU (3.97 billion tons). However, on a per capita basis, China's emissions (6.59 tons per person) are only moderately higher than the world average (4.47 tons per person), and significantly less than the US (17.10 tons per person).\n\nAhead of the [2021 UN Climate Change Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference), China [committed](https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China%E2%80%99s%20Achievements,%20New%20Goals%20and%20New%20Measures%20for%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions.pdf) to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030, and carbon neutrality before 2060. [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/) called these policies \"Insufficient\", consistent with a world of 3C of warming by 2100, and when considered as a \"fair share target\", called them \"highly insufficient\"." }, { "id": 10687, "title": "Will Boris Johnson fail to be elected in the next UK General Election?", "short_title": "Johnson Re-election Next UK GE", "url_title": "Johnson Re-election Next UK GE", "slug": "johnson-re-election-next-uk-ge", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-17T05:22:29.760519Z", "published_at": "2022-04-21T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.253962Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-21T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T17:45:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-21T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10687, "title": "Will Boris Johnson fail to be elected in the next UK General Election?", "created_at": "2022-04-17T05:22:29.760519Z", "open_time": "2022-04-21T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T17:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2019. He was Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for [Uxbridge and South Ruislip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) since 2015. \n\nAs of April 2022, Johnson has for some time been mired in scandal over various alleged wrongdoings, [including breaking coronavirus restrictions](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/12/europe/boris-johnson-partygate-scandal-analysis-gbr-uk-intl/index.html), and [polling finds that there is strong public support for his resignation.](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majority-britons-say-boris-johnson-should-resign-aftermath-partygate-fines)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Boris Johnson is not elected to represent any UK parliamentary constituency in the next general election to be held after Thursday, December 12, 2019, conditional on Johnson appearing on the ballot in any constituency. If Johnson does not contest the election, or if Johnson is not alive or is incapacitated at the time the results of the election are announced, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. \n\nThis question will close 24 hours prior to the opening of polls of the next UK general election", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720344614.099189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720344614.099189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6614810523011605 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0049042176061588625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6908350558423518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49442003044115695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03174038085545273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9312975771979319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40838942112238874, 0.002240580008125089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.440191562026826e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2712700973749219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2088750885887485, 0.0, 1.383054885038431, 0.5713841713513058, 0.0, 0.18775432607770384, 0.0, 0.4734071425067208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008608527462416898, 0.0, 0.8755042365923356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004288406407428755, 0.7596520478306992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8717788420003423, 0.0, 0.013854713045658863, 0.12518179660680726, 0.0, 0.8376989864894738, 0.0, 0.005456874971958028, 0.00637983313952911, 0.0, 0.7947955352819441, 0.0, 0.12163391419672265, 0.5406316501440153, 0.0855141630876318, 0.010083289174542997, 0.025951372732135013, 0.0034516458250373645, 0.35798452597866515, 0.0, 0.009321379188228566, 0.03390384347644606, 0.0, 0.19040150563911667, 1.227894701468602, 0.0061955733551997535, 1.1377612835284054, 0.002736760146717553, 0.6162890971650317, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.1323729141446323, 0.2656477577791195, 0.26782133619188164, 0.06068416050669549, 0.4141977385997879, 1.0317143594556526, 0.0, 0.43637579426339823, 0.0, 0.007319322794495804, 0.14508284704727595, 3.4129181678952007 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720424889.772157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720424889.772157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41395748600973215, 0.5860425139902679 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 469, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2019. He was Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for [Uxbridge and South Ruislip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) since 2015. \n\nAs of April 2022, Johnson has for some time been mired in scandal over various alleged wrongdoings, [including breaking coronavirus restrictions](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/12/europe/boris-johnson-partygate-scandal-analysis-gbr-uk-intl/index.html), and [polling finds that there is strong public support for his resignation.](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majority-britons-say-boris-johnson-should-resign-aftermath-partygate-fines)" }, { "id": 10686, "title": "Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?", "short_title": "Obergefell v. Hodges Overturned by 2030", "url_title": "Obergefell v. 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Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-04-17T05:03:04.517078Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Obergefell v. Hodges, 576 U.S. 644 (2015)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges) is a landmark civil rights case in which the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The 5โ4 ruling requires all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the Insular Areas to perform and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities.\n\nIn the years following the ruling in *Obergefell*, during the Trump administration, several justices departed the Court and were replaced by justices widely considered to be conservative, altering the balance of the Court. [Some observers now consider the Court to be 'aggressively conservative'](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/aggressively-conservative-supreme-court-plunges-into-us-culture-wars-2022-01-25/), and in the midst of a ['conservative revolution'](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-roberts-court-vs-the-trump-court/). \n\n[Some now believe](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/some-fear-ripple-effect-on-civil-rights-cases-if-roe-is-overturned) that the SCOTUS may eventually overturn various precedentially important rulings, including [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade), [Lawrence v. Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_v._Texas), and Obergefell v. Hodges.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2030, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that results in Obergefell v. 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Hodges, 576 U.S. 644 (2015)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges) is a landmark civil rights case in which the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The 5โ4 ruling requires all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the Insular Areas to perform and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities.\n\nIn the years following the ruling in *Obergefell*, during the Trump administration, several justices departed the Court and were replaced by justices widely considered to be conservative, altering the balance of the Court. [Some observers now consider the Court to be 'aggressively conservative'](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/aggressively-conservative-supreme-court-plunges-into-us-culture-wars-2022-01-25/), and in the midst of a ['conservative revolution'](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-roberts-court-vs-the-trump-court/). \n\n[Some now believe](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/some-fear-ripple-effect-on-civil-rights-cases-if-roe-is-overturned) that the SCOTUS may eventually overturn various precedentially important rulings, including [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade), [Lawrence v. Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_v._Texas), and Obergefell v. Hodges." }, { "id": 10682, "title": "Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?", "short_title": "Praxis Society City by 2040", "url_title": "Praxis Society City by 2040", "slug": "praxis-society-city-by-2040", "author_id": 119020, "author_username": "jmason", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-16T04:01:56.832148Z", "published_at": "2022-06-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.208203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-29T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10682, "title": "Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?", "created_at": "2022-04-16T04:01:56.832148Z", "open_time": "2022-06-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-11T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-29T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-29T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Praxis Society [describes itself](https://www.praxissociety.com/content/introducing-praxis) as a membership-based intentional community centered around building a city-cryptostate. Praxis Society is building a \"city in the cloud\" (i.e., the creation of a unified online community) prior to creating a physical city--its Discord server presently has over 10,000 members. It recently [raised](https://www.praxissociety.com/content/praxis-raises-15mm-series-a-led-by-paradigm) a $15 million Series A round from various venture capital firms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2040, Praxis Society or its corporate successor has: (1) physically constructed a new city; (2) that city is recognized as a separate municipality and/or special jurisdiction under the laws of the country in which it is located OR constitutes its own separate jurisdiction not subject to any other sovereign state, and (3) has at least 1,000 full-time residents for a minimum period of one year. \n\nIf Praxis Society has failed to meet any of the three criteria identified above, this question resolves as **No**. If Praxis Society or its corporate successor is no longer operational or ceases to exist, this question resolves as **No**. If the satisfactory resolution of the above criteria, in accordance with the fine print, is ambiguous, the resolution of the question will be determined by Metaculus admins.", "fine_print": "Resolution criteria clarification:\n\n(1) Meeting condition (1) requires that Praxis Society's \"city\" cannot simply constitute the occupation of space in an existing city. For example, 1,000 Praxis Society members occupying a single apartment building in New York does not meet the condition. The Praxis Society city must be developed on what is commonly understood to be either \"greenfield\" or \"brownfield\" land with its own, newly (re)developed infrastructure and buildings. Per question discussion, this could include a seastead, city in space, or any other non-land based site. \n\n(2) Meeting condition (2) requires that Praxis Society's \"city\" is recognized either as a local government unit or special jurisdiction (such as a special economic zone) under the laws of the country (and any relevant subnational administrative division) in which it is located. For example, if Praxis Society has physically built a community within New York such that it meets the common definition of a \"neighborhood\" but is still governed as a part of the City of New York/Borough of Manhattan, this condition has not been met. Alternatively, if Praxis Society is not subject to the sovereignty of any state, this condition has been met. \n\n(3) Meeting condition (3) requires that either credible media report or government statistics demonstrate that the Praxis Society \"city\" has been the full-time residence of at least 1,000 people for at least one year. \"Full-time residency\" can be understood as an individual being physically present in the city for at least 183 days per year. 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It recently [raised](https://www.praxissociety.com/content/praxis-raises-15mm-series-a-led-by-paradigm) a $15 million Series A round from various venture capital firms." }, { "id": 10678, "title": "Will North Korea produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?", "short_title": "DPRK Cement Production 8M Tons by 2026", "url_title": "DPRK Cement Production 8M Tons by 2026", "slug": "dprk-cement-production-8m-tons-by-2026", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-15T22:23:34.955496Z", "published_at": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T11:43:43.800350Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10678, "title": "Will North Korea produce 8 million tons of cement per year before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-04-15T22:23:34.955496Z", "open_time": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2021, Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un set several goals for the nation in his [Five-Year Plan](https://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/kju_8th_party_congress_speech_summary.pdf/file_view), including:\n\n>The basic tasks facing the building materials industry during the new five-year plan period is to attain the goal of producing 8 million tons of cement and ensure self-sufficiency of the finishing materials.\n\n>It is necessary to renovate the existing cement factories and, at the same time, build new large-capacity, up-to-date cement factories in the areas with favorable conditions for materials and electricity supply and transport, and thus further expand the cement production capacity of the country.\n\nKim also made the goal of building 50,000 apartments in Pyongyang and 25,000 in the Komdok area before 2026.\n\nIn May 2021, writers at 38North [expressed doubts](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/) about these goals, saying,\n\n>[...] as of now, the industry is not likely to become a cornerstone of the North Korean economy. The current border closure and lack of hard currency make it difficult for the country to import key materials for expanding the industry in a meaningful way, and cement production is unlikely to reach sufficient quality for export anytime soon.\n\nThey offer a deep analysis of North Korean cement production in a series of articles: [[1]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/) [[2]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-more-than-meets-the-eye/) [[3]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-further-concrete-leads/)\n\nThe (South Korean) [Bank of Korea](http://ecos.bok.or.kr/flex/EasySearch_e.jsp) offers some historical data on NK's cement production:\n\n| Year | Cement Production (Million Tons) |\n| -- | -- |\n| 2011 | \t6.452 |\n| 2012 | \t6.446 |\n| 2013 | \t6.6 |\n| 2014 | \t6.675 |\n| 2015 | \t6.697 |\n| 2016 | \t7.077 |\n| 2017 | \t6.838 |\n| 2018 | \t5.832 |\n| 2019 | \t5.604 |\n| 2020 | 5.685 |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if North Korea has produced at least 8 million tons of cement in any year from 2021 to 2025 (inclusive), according to the [Bank of Korea's ECOS](http://ecos.bok.or.kr/flex/EasySearch_e.jsp). As of April 15, 2022, this data series is listed under 18.2.1, under \"North Korea\" and \"Cement Production\". For example, North Korea's production in 2020 was 565.5 (in ten thousands of tons of cement).\n\nIf the Bank of Korea does not publish a full set of data on the 2021-2025 period by January 1, 2028, an alternative credible source may be found, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761565412.92146, "end_time": 1768116841.688377, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761565412.92146, "end_time": 1768116841.688377, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3996242849156724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.23469000981798885, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287369.166453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287369.166453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8606679888562134, 0.13933201114378652 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2021, Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un set several goals for the nation in his [Five-Year Plan](https://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/kju_8th_party_congress_speech_summary.pdf/file_view), including:\n\n>The basic tasks facing the building materials industry during the new five-year plan period is to attain the goal of producing 8 million tons of cement and ensure self-sufficiency of the finishing materials.\n\n>It is necessary to renovate the existing cement factories and, at the same time, build new large-capacity, up-to-date cement factories in the areas with favorable conditions for materials and electricity supply and transport, and thus further expand the cement production capacity of the country.\n\nKim also made the goal of building 50,000 apartments in Pyongyang and 25,000 in the Komdok area before 2026.\n\nIn May 2021, writers at 38North [expressed doubts](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/) about these goals, saying,\n\n>[...] as of now, the industry is not likely to become a cornerstone of the North Korean economy. The current border closure and lack of hard currency make it difficult for the country to import key materials for expanding the industry in a meaningful way, and cement production is unlikely to reach sufficient quality for export anytime soon.\n\nThey offer a deep analysis of North Korean cement production in a series of articles: [[1]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/strategic-value-but-limited-prospects-north-koreas-cement-industry/) [[2]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-more-than-meets-the-eye/) [[3]](https://www.38north.org/2021/05/north-koreas-cement-industry-further-concrete-leads/)\n\nThe (South Korean) [Bank of Korea](http://ecos.bok.or.kr/flex/EasySearch_e.jsp) offers some historical data on NK's cement production:\n\n| Year | Cement Production (Million Tons) |\n| -- | -- |\n| 2011 | \t6.452 |\n| 2012 | \t6.446 |\n| 2013 | \t6.6 |\n| 2014 | \t6.675 |\n| 2015 | \t6.697 |\n| 2016 | \t7.077 |\n| 2017 | \t6.838 |\n| 2018 | \t5.832 |\n| 2019 | \t5.604 |\n| 2020 | 5.685 |" }, { "id": 10674, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "short_title": "Harris Dem Nominee for US Prez in 2024", "url_title": "Harris Dem Nominee for US Prez in 2024", "slug": "harris-dem-nominee-for-us-prez-in-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-15T07:26:52.366778Z", "published_at": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.078690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10674, "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-15T07:26:52.366778Z", "open_time": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-01T10:32:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-01T10:32:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-12T02:27:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kamala Devi Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris), born October 20, 1964, is an American politician and attorney who is the 49th and current vice president of the United States. She is the first female vice president and the highest-ranking female official in U.S. history, as well as the first African American and first Asian American vice president. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017 and as a United States senator representing California from 2017 to 2021.\r\n\r\nHarris sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, but withdrew from the race prior to the primaries. Joe Biden selected her as his running mate and their ticket went on to defeat the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and vice president, Mike Pence, in the 2020 election. \r\n\r\nAs of April 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/what-will-dems-do-if-biden-doesnt-run) that Harris may seek the Democratic Party's nomination in 2024 for the office of President of the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the date of the 60th quadrennial presidential election, Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party's official nominee for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "Nomination for the vice presidency does not count; nor does merely becoming the presidential nominee - Harris must be the presidential nominee on election day itself. 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She is the first female vice president and the highest-ranking female official in U.S. history, as well as the first African American and first Asian American vice president. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the attorney general of California from 2011 to 2017 and as a United States senator representing California from 2017 to 2021.\r\n\r\nHarris sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, but withdrew from the race prior to the primaries. Joe Biden selected her as his running mate and their ticket went on to defeat the incumbent president, Donald Trump, and vice president, Mike Pence, in the 2020 election. \r\n\r\nAs of April 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/what-will-dems-do-if-biden-doesnt-run) that Harris may seek the Democratic Party's nomination in 2024 for the office of President of the United States." }, { "id": 10673, "title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "short_title": "Buttigieg Dem nominee for US Prez in 2024", "url_title": "Buttigieg Dem nominee for US Prez in 2024", "slug": "buttigieg-dem-nominee-for-us-prez-in-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-15T07:18:54.672568Z", "published_at": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.013851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:38:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10673, "title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-04-15T07:18:54.672568Z", "open_time": "2022-04-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-30T23:36:45.166183Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-30T23:36:45.166183Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:40:02.386596Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Peter Paul Montgomery Buttigieg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg), born January 19, 1982, is an American politician and former military officer who is currently serving as the United States secretary of transportation. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the 32nd mayor of South Bend, Indiana from 2012 to 2020, which earned him the nickname \"Mayor Pete\".\n\nButtigieg ran as a candidate for president in the [2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries) He became one of the first openly gay men to launch a major party presidential campaign. Buttigieg narrowly won the Iowa caucuses and placed a close second in the New Hampshire primary. By winning Iowa, he became the first openly gay candidate to win a presidential primary or caucus. \n\nAs of April 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/31/buttigieg-2024-presidential-campaign-buzz-grows-am/) that Buttigieg may seek the Democratic Party's nomination in 2024 for the office of President of the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the date of [the 60th quadrennial presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election), Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party's official nominee for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "Nomination for the vice presidency does not count; nor does merely becoming the presidential nominee - Buttigieg must be the presidential nominee on election day itself. If he becomes the nominee but is (for any reason) not the nominee on election day, the question resolves negatively.", "post_id": 10673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659317605.63996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659317605.63996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11427716821830482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7429107336866266, 1.209035397044547, 0.10348096023278008, 0.8574818331037634, 0.35978110974552974, 0.009581012384170293, 0.40532828343614125, 1.9955454860353785, 1.1727289653232498, 1.6650325096338934, 0.9121364181563633, 2.0079318963778623, 0.17942812068560207, 0.005715929431113761, 0.09149842873006518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2670971570995956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.721130685405309, 0.4447470097465647, 0.15044316718241518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19285133479472366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6301606780713973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.97338559998354, "peer_score": 3.991463169512599, "coverage": 0.9982635362211667, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9982635362211667, "spot_peer_score": 14.221738832216783, "baseline_archived_score": 85.97338559998354, "peer_archived_score": 3.991463169512599, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.221738832216783 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659317605.669519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659317605.669519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9794849186130521, 0.02051508138694786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Peter Paul Montgomery Buttigieg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg), born January 19, 1982, is an American politician and former military officer who is currently serving as the United States secretary of transportation. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the 32nd mayor of South Bend, Indiana from 2012 to 2020, which earned him the nickname \"Mayor Pete\".\n\nButtigieg ran as a candidate for president in the [2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries) He became one of the first openly gay men to launch a major party presidential campaign. Buttigieg narrowly won the Iowa caucuses and placed a close second in the New Hampshire primary. By winning Iowa, he became the first openly gay candidate to win a presidential primary or caucus. \n\nAs of April 2022, there is [speculation](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/31/buttigieg-2024-presidential-campaign-buzz-grows-am/) that Buttigieg may seek the Democratic Party's nomination in 2024 for the office of President of the United States." }, { "id": 10671, "title": "Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?", "short_title": "Omicron XE Dominates US by June 19, 2022", "url_title": "Omicron XE Dominates US by June 19, 2022", "slug": "omicron-xe-dominates-us-by-june-19-2022", "author_id": 118107, "author_username": "private.4920", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-15T04:42:55.757975Z", "published_at": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.809138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10671, "title": "Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-15T04:42:55.757975Z", "open_time": "2022-04-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Omicron XE is a recombination of the [SARS-Cov-2 Omicron strains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) BA.1 and BA.2. It has been detected first in the [UK](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067672/Technical-Briefing-40-8April2022.pdf) on January 19, 2022, then in [Brazil](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2022/04/07/entenda-o-que-e-a-omicron-xe-que-teve-o-primeiro-caso-confirmado-no-brasil.ghtml), [Australia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/15/australia-on-alert-after-new-omicron-xe-covid-variant-found-in-nsw), [Thailand, India, and Israel](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/new-omicron-xe-variant-detected-in-japan-as-uk-cases-rise-.html). 1,125 cases of Omicron XE have been identified in the UK, [as of April 5, 2022](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067672/Technical-Briefing-40-8April2022.pdf).\n\n[On March 25, 2022](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk), Susan Hopkins of the UK Health Security Agency stated:\n\n>This particular recombinant, XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 19, 2022, the Omicron XE SARS-CoV-2 variant makes up more than 50% of COVID-19 cases in the US, as estimated by the [CDC COVID variant Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The two most recent weeks reported in the Nowcast are based on preliminary data and the model's forecast; to resolve this question as **Yes**, qualifying data must be at least 2 weeks old", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1657047843.442127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1657047843.442127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.10484306136273501 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 6.6220837650829, 0.24969952377454985, 0.5643121285728944, 0.8749085186757798, 0.11226985722980869, 0.431007191772122, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.0, 1.4345809938113785, 0.0, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.03614563557243468, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036618791251766876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2712168925010876, 0.5370676552411993, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5770453408276514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.471796046199044, "coverage": 0.992961467362274, "baseline_score": 35.05790478858223, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 15.471796046199044, "baseline_archived_score": 35.05790478858223, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1657003525.740806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1657003525.740806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Omicron XE is a recombination of the [SARS-Cov-2 Omicron strains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) BA.1 and BA.2. It has been detected first in the [UK](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067672/Technical-Briefing-40-8April2022.pdf) on January 19, 2022, then in [Brazil](https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2022/04/07/entenda-o-que-e-a-omicron-xe-que-teve-o-primeiro-caso-confirmado-no-brasil.ghtml), [Australia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/15/australia-on-alert-after-new-omicron-xe-covid-variant-found-in-nsw), [Thailand, India, and Israel](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/new-omicron-xe-variant-detected-in-japan-as-uk-cases-rise-.html). 1,125 cases of Omicron XE have been identified in the UK, [as of April 5, 2022](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067672/Technical-Briefing-40-8April2022.pdf).\n\n[On March 25, 2022](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk), Susan Hopkins of the UK Health Security Agency stated:\n\n>This particular recombinant, XE, has shown a variable growth rate and we cannot yet confirm whether it has a true growth advantage. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about transmissibility, severity or vaccine effectiveness." } ] }
