Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4220
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4200", "results": [ { "id": 10667, "title": "Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "short_title": "Elon Musk as Major US Politician by 2033", "url_title": "Elon Musk as Major US Politician by 2033", "slug": "elon-musk-as-major-us-politician-by-2033", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-14T21:39:04.621480Z", "published_at": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T13:40:28.083049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-02-02T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-02T01:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 318, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10667, "title": "Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "created_at": "2022-04-14T21:39:04.621480Z", "open_time": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-17T11:22:52.110491Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-17T11:22:52.110491Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-02-02T01:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-02-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-02-02T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elon Reeve Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk), born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and the [Forbes real-time billionaires list.](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#3ed6f4c03d78)\n\nIn 2022, [Musk made an unsolicited $43 billion offer to take social media site Twitter private](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-purchase-offer-43-billion-private-company/), citing concerns around free speech on the platform, which he argues [is essential to a functioning democracy.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507259709224632344)\n\nMusk [characterises his political views as \"somewhat libertarian,\"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes) says he is [\"not a conservative... registered independent & politically moderate,\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018265614295523328) and [does not clearly align with either the Democratic or Republican party platforms.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk#Politics)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if, prior to February 1, 2033, Elon Musk legally holds any of the following public offices for any period of time:\n\n- President of the United States\n- Vice President of the United States\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- United States Senator\n- United States Representative\n- Governor of any US state or territor", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763106240.021273, "end_time": 1765685586.679527, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763106240.021273, "end_time": 1765685586.679527, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06610956136357833 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.516998298925661, 3.649196890388493, 5.997726574598117, 4.193905823583496, 2.884017667405554, 1.7603488139601682, 0.47196597494587494, 0.8245183022425635, 0.19788002385039807, 0.008010961946527534, 0.20782988451553608, 0.0037740138089926863, 0.5336952717944676, 1.663279341718318e-05, 0.09909026934095104, 0.13868192981989316, 0.0, 0.16667320210229017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023324188304302683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03855825671680745, 0.0, 0.06523111158503186, 0.04462131522478918, 0.0, 0.1399154554282745, 0.021026725648802137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04682588167582932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030084365041785688, 0.0, 0.23372173285843437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03163079691494814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001737674713988766, 0.7126627310439604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037085054061461606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017959376818405866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.993572186942285e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02214877062960431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0821529194598389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20879396559165733 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728291684.130164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 259, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728291684.130164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 259, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962811375598292, 0.0037188624401708254 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 742, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elon Reeve Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk), born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and the [Forbes real-time billionaires list.](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#3ed6f4c03d78)\n\nIn 2022, [Musk made an unsolicited $43 billion offer to take social media site Twitter private](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-purchase-offer-43-billion-private-company/), citing concerns around free speech on the platform, which he argues [is essential to a functioning democracy.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507259709224632344)\n\nMusk [characterises his political views as \"somewhat libertarian,\"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes) says he is [\"not a conservative... registered independent & politically moderate,\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018265614295523328) and [does not clearly align with either the Democratic or Republican party platforms.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk#Politics)" }, { "id": 10663, "title": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "short_title": "Will Elon Musk take Twitter private?", "url_title": "Will Elon Musk take Twitter private?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-take-twitter-private", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-14T15:53:58.584475Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.823458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-25T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-10-06T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-25T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10663, "title": "By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?", "created_at": "2022-04-14T15:53:58.584475Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-21T18:29:23.109854Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-21T18:29:23.109854Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-25T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-25T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-10-06T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-25T22:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On April 14, 2022, Elon Musk made an all-cash bid to take Twitter, Inc., private for $54.20 a share, citing a societal imperative for free speech. [(SEC filing)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm) [(letter)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000110465922045641/tm2212748d1_sc13da.htm#ex-b_001) Twitter has confirmed receipt of the letter and says its Board of Directors is considering the proposal. [(press release)](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/twitter-confirms-receipt-of-unsolicited-non-binding-proposal-from-elon-musk-301525749.html) The Wall Street Journal [reports](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-offers-to-buy-rest-of-twitter-for-54-20-a-share-11649932296) that Musk “has heard from outside investors who may be interested in teaming up for his bid.”\n\n***By December 31 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?***\n\nThis question resolves as positive immediately based on an [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1418091&owner=exclude) by Twitter, Inc., stating that the company and Elon Musk and/or his nominated entities have reached a definitive agreement that, if approved by shareholders and executed, would result in a going private transaction in which Musk and/or any of his nominated entities would be an acquiring party. Otherwise if no such offer has been accepted by December 31, 2022, this resolves as negative.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650925248.814374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650925248.814374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.945918317471723 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029988785395327496, 0.0, 0.001322981755186089, 0.0, 0.0032812772856229922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002930523707456047, 0.0, 0.009177111268178266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026913852710506142, 0.0, 0.0065324199916913074, 0.013931281558975482, 0.003958218974807764, 0.025510462599575852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650925248.833387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650925248.833387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41481386690329547, 0.5851861330967045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 10662, "title": "Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Elon Musk Acquires Twitter in 2022", "url_title": "Elon Musk Acquires Twitter in 2022", "slug": "elon-musk-acquires-twitter-in-2022", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-14T15:34:13.661506Z", "published_at": "2022-04-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.547865Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 277, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-28T08:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-28T08:31:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 749, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10662, "title": "Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-14T15:34:13.661506Z", "open_time": "2022-04-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-18T12:35:24.031082Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-18T12:35:24.031082Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-28T08:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-28T08:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T16:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-28T08:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk has bought 9.1% of Twitter shares and made an offer to acquire all of Twitter for $54.20. This is a total value of about $43 billion.\n\nThis offer could be rejected. There could be a bidding war if there are other bidders. Elon could continue to buy shares to acheive over 50% ownership. Elon Muskk could walk away and do other things.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 31, 2022, Elon Musk has over 50% of Twitter shares according to public SEC statements", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666975202.526343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 752, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666975202.526343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 752, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9604205519673461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.017039968121672515, 7.322592431191851e-05, 4.7197788062542674e-05, 3.982554824884438e-05, 0.008326301073917183, 0.0004390742623228892, 0.0, 0.0008037117792774051, 0.0005955625601909272, 0.010222216662336891, 5.857052737822838e-10, 0.0028434769921370884, 0.0009277458764311867, 0.003060090620786509, 0.013264467324166864, 0.0014884680984468706, 0.0048691053555068664, 0.00053678444527002, 0.001126826951318485, 0.01306585541398695, 0.0010439650826913587, 0.004969046698203266, 0.039656813254045666, 0.0004851514755624698, 0.00788441190640652, 0.0038586226897011893, 0.0002572726034941277, 0.006413591909056383, 0.0, 0.004024270221869065, 1.4502199683072403e-09, 0.0, 0.0006433229823812648, 8.558702008642433e-06, 0.017848870979917986, 0.0017070598154111318, 0.0010697394407027554, 1.271420479416384e-09, 0.0020713120780902223, 0.06837091001480085, 5.883630950836368e-07, 0.0004774145567279041, 3.063914752782739e-05, 0.0006214820065133997, 0.00040774462741925287, 9.584404206359016e-07, 0.0010830047479376888, 0.00012890522816555092, 0.0, 0.14108935404206185, 0.013126435790984643, 9.962876916705031e-06, 0.002117757995033804, 0.0002362998395191828, 0.13527236849229696, 0.05485372996506894, 0.04014804525249354, 0.0, 0.05859983506574517, 0.004977866279340204, 0.05689905422445574, 0.0035100154627473006, 0.014677618191129869, 8.290561339995339e-06, 0.30866825957307065, 0.16622237906980064, 9.348631346545621e-06, 0.012543723558567683, 0.07292531736287505, 0.5022335569438758, 0.14324404097740762, 0.04360103398015967, 0.0, 0.2540415586875707, 0.24357332066484988, 0.08077811716613624, 0.06692355956115985, 0.09788322970625725, 1.164958504088405e-05, 0.5531645348113452, 0.1727952115428445, 0.10907223870982288, 0.22998981555350995, 0.15536808129755378, 0.11627934904037548, 0.17522273672693334, 0.08456770900253145, 0.14769222017956618, 0.11965254551913002, 0.2721567452565228, 1.1443868120600917, 0.45263518455238516, 0.008835368624336787, 0.4870423459410383, 2.3798500968634686, 1.1485593336038853, 0.3400254093165654, 1.0745411532567406, 41.41490003622957 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.083882044574638, "coverage": 0.750033882088774, "baseline_score": -19.860677965151215, "spot_peer_score": -10.442034680272931, "peer_archived_score": 3.083882044574638, "baseline_archived_score": -19.860677965151215, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.442034680272931 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666845537.957483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 746, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666845537.957483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 746, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1685087701270096, 0.8314912298729904 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 60, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3716, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk has bought 9.1% of Twitter shares and made an offer to acquire all of Twitter for $54.20. This is a total value of about $43 billion.\n\nThis offer could be rejected. There could be a bidding war if there are other bidders. Elon could continue to buy shares to acheive over 50% ownership. Elon Muskk could walk away and do other things." }, { "id": 10635, "title": "In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?", "short_title": "Future Fund outspends OpenPhil in 2022", "url_title": "Future Fund outspends OpenPhil in 2022", "slug": "future-fund-outspends-openphil-in-2022", "author_id": 101341, "author_username": "Pablo", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-11T19:13:56.063796Z", "published_at": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.396770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-16T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-16T17:18:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10635, "title": "In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?", "created_at": "2022-04-11T19:13:56.063796Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-16T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-16T17:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-16T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-15T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Future Fund](https://ftxfuturefund.org/) is a philanthropic fund by the FTX Foundation that makes grants and investments to ambitious projects focused on improving humanity's long-term prospects. It [hopes](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-fund/) to grant at least $100 million in 2022, \"and potentially a lot more\".\n\n[Open Philanthropy](https://openphilanthropy.org/) is a research and grantmaking foundation that is currently, and by a wide margin, [the primary funder](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fDLmDe8HQq2ueCxk6/ftx-future-fund-and-longtermism) of longtermist causes within the effective altruism community. In 2021, [it granted $102 million to longtermist causes](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ga5Egd4mC40lF6jUAX1fJ6AHp_ABEQTsi3D0muv-UpA/edit#gid=852731905).", "resolution_criteria": "For Open Philanthropy, their [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) will be consulted and their longtermist grantmaking will be calculated as the sum of all their grantmaking for the year 2022 in the areas *Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness*, *Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence*, and *Global Catastrophic Risks*.\n\nFor the Future Fund, an official person will be contacted and asked to report the total volume of their grantmaking in 2022.\n\nIf Open Philanthropy changes the way they classify their grantmaking, the question will resolve ambiguously. If the Future Fund refuses to share the relevant figures, the question will also resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671079305.204614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24214545694462614 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671079305.204614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24214545694462614 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7578545430553738, 0.24214545694462614 ], "means": [ 0.28028650642304515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4134949025986099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9583846673282694, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8176137788112516, 0.0, 1.6160608914144103, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9356445192922368, 0.8951771743195929, 0.8749085186757798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34331951429497504, 0.1792663589359841, 0.5370676552411993, 0.2541066786238596, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.0, 0.3998823682256166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5770453408276514, 0.23059971548004934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03249305809127576, 0.12585700968552796, 0.19519530604924692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08025897563641, 0.0, 0.30730177495378697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6656122102058313, 0.27614024067010073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008902640948057735, 0.1520526093815149, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.06976712051662978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.00741623973729105, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.05016193509368877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05144413896398135, 0.02872939583514363, 0.03461965486953533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.025302524918872856, 0.05730206168043847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671079305.221547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671079305.221547, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7948297872979277, 0.20517021270207228 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Future Fund](https://ftxfuturefund.org/) is a philanthropic fund by the FTX Foundation that makes grants and investments to ambitious projects focused on improving humanity's long-term prospects. It [hopes](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-fund/) to grant at least $100 million in 2022, \"and potentially a lot more\".\n\n[Open Philanthropy](https://openphilanthropy.org/) is a research and grantmaking foundation that is currently, and by a wide margin, [the primary funder](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fDLmDe8HQq2ueCxk6/ftx-future-fund-and-longtermism) of longtermist causes within the effective altruism community. In 2021, [it granted $102 million to longtermist causes](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ga5Egd4mC40lF6jUAX1fJ6AHp_ABEQTsi3D0muv-UpA/edit#gid=852731905)." }, { "id": 10634, "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?", "short_title": "Xi Jinping Re-election in 2022", "url_title": "Xi Jinping Re-election in 2022", "slug": "xi-jinping-re-election-in-2022", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-11T16:13:14.714765Z", "published_at": "2022-04-14T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.977124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-14T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-23T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-23T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10634, "title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-11T16:13:14.714765Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-23T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-23T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-23T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/)\n\n----\n\nFrom Wikipedia,\n\n> The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held in Beijing in the second half of 2022. 2,300 delegates will represent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s estimated 90 million members. Preparations for the 20th National Congress began in 2021 and ended with a plenary session of the 19th Central Committee, a few days prior to the 20th National Congress. In 2021, local and provincial party organizations began electing delegates to the congress as well as receiving and amending party documents. It will not be succeeded by the 21st National Congress until 2027.\n\n> The CCP Congress will endorse the membership list of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and will elect the Central Committee, which in turn will approve the members of the Political Bureau and its Standing Committee, the most powerful decision-making body.\n\n> It is believed that either current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, or will be newly elected as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, the highest position held by Mao Zedong.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if ANY of the following events occur before January 1, 2023:\n\n* Xi Jinping is re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party\n\n* Xi Jinping is newly elected as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party\n\n* Xi Jinping takes on a new role that is widely considered to continue his role as the [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) of China. If there is a dispute, we will use a consensus from the Associated Press and Reuters to determine whether Xi Jinping is still the \"paramount leader\" of China by the end of 2022.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10634, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666538763.789207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666538763.789207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.964380102532471 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038983510779222394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31917163465548737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18057556480703751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09079275177630637, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01606316316917346, 0.0, 0.6481949220087266, 0.009687069797726195, 0.04269769913512837, 0.024797729286493507, 0.4666178300594601, 1.2735073837914785, 1.8025147006951898, 0.7216693467599494, 1.2564202254656764, 10.265540914973396 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8281555283656714, "coverage": 0.7341718184282954, "baseline_score": 68.26765100310098, "spot_peer_score": -2.000111404002898, "peer_archived_score": 1.8281555283656714, "baseline_archived_score": 68.26765100310098, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.000111404002898 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666338881.62444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666338881.62444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03628491468387507, 0.9637150853161249 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9408/xi-no-longer-authority-of-china/)\n\n----\n\nFrom Wikipedia,\n\n> The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will be held in Beijing in the second half of 2022. 2,300 delegates will represent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s estimated 90 million members. Preparations for the 20th National Congress began in 2021 and ended with a plenary session of the 19th Central Committee, a few days prior to the 20th National Congress. In 2021, local and provincial party organizations began electing delegates to the congress as well as receiving and amending party documents. It will not be succeeded by the 21st National Congress until 2027.\n\n> The CCP Congress will endorse the membership list of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and will elect the Central Committee, which in turn will approve the members of the Political Bureau and its Standing Committee, the most powerful decision-making body.\n\n> It is believed that either current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, or will be newly elected as the Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, the highest position held by Mao Zedong." }, { "id": 10626, "title": "Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?", "short_title": "Blake Masters POTUS by 2070", "url_title": "Blake Masters POTUS by 2070", "slug": "blake-masters-potus-by-2070", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-10T09:20:01.651468Z", "published_at": "2022-04-13T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:50:24.748707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-13T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-13T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10626, "title": "Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?", "created_at": "2022-04-10T09:20:01.651468Z", "open_time": "2022-04-13T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-15T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Blake Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)) is a Republican politician and a candidate for the United States Senate in Arizona. He has a close relationship with tech billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), and wrote the book Zero to One based on notes he took from Thiel's class at Stanford, where Masters got both his BA and JD. Masters [resigned](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1504166071632162816) from his posts running Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation to run in Arizona. Masters is staunchly opposed to critical race theory, and supports a stronger border and the reduction of illegal immigration. He is also tough on crime, and has [appeared on Tucker Carlson's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyKjUiehzQA) to denounce the increase on crime rates, which he has blamed on Democratic Party politicians like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Masters is also a suspicious of large tech companies, much like Thiel, and views them as stifling innovation and as pushing a left-wing political ideology. Masters has also famously stated [\"you should be able to raise a family on one single income\"](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1453754258218651648). While not alleging fraud on Election Day in 2020, Masters [released](https://theweek.com/talking-points/1006992/blake-masters-disgraceful-video) a video critical of the coverage of Hunter Biden's laptop and of voter registration policies.\n\nMasters has received [significant attention](https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/blake-masters-wants-to-take-back-arizona/) and both [praise](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/11/the-blake-masters-vision/) and [criticism](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/15/meet-peter-thiels-military-industrial-candidate/). In particular, some on the left have criticized Peter Thiel for his [opposition to democracy](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/06/peter-thiel.html) and his links with the neoreactionary thinker [Curtis Yarvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Yarvin).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Blake Masters is the President of the United States before January 1, 2070, as reported by reliable media outlets", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10626, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762973414.197201, "end_time": 1800446072.468242, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762973414.197201, "end_time": 1800446072.468242, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05418477860637477 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.292158758621832, 6.596071423378524, 0.29310694480167465, 0.011588089681335302, 0.017541674720663213, 0.06882159191870907, 0.4035760397865636, 0.04204359994762325, 0.5307842046168789, 0.0014293860576454706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003942665013892356, 0.0, 0.10886246125459637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49988553484328224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001154680008281835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338162109370695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290175.356065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290175.356065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990955206290298, 0.0009044793709701148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Blake Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)) is a Republican politician and a candidate for the United States Senate in Arizona. He has a close relationship with tech billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), and wrote the book Zero to One based on notes he took from Thiel's class at Stanford, where Masters got both his BA and JD. Masters [resigned](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1504166071632162816) from his posts running Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation to run in Arizona. Masters is staunchly opposed to critical race theory, and supports a stronger border and the reduction of illegal immigration. He is also tough on crime, and has [appeared on Tucker Carlson's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyKjUiehzQA) to denounce the increase on crime rates, which he has blamed on Democratic Party politicians like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Masters is also a suspicious of large tech companies, much like Thiel, and views them as stifling innovation and as pushing a left-wing political ideology. Masters has also famously stated [\"you should be able to raise a family on one single income\"](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1453754258218651648). While not alleging fraud on Election Day in 2020, Masters [released](https://theweek.com/talking-points/1006992/blake-masters-disgraceful-video) a video critical of the coverage of Hunter Biden's laptop and of voter registration policies.\n\nMasters has received [significant attention](https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/blake-masters-wants-to-take-back-arizona/) and both [praise](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/11/the-blake-masters-vision/) and [criticism](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/15/meet-peter-thiels-military-industrial-candidate/). In particular, some on the left have criticized Peter Thiel for his [opposition to democracy](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/06/peter-thiel.html) and his links with the neoreactionary thinker [Curtis Yarvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Yarvin)." }, { "id": 10623, "title": "Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "short_title": "Ukraine to win Eurovision 2022?", "url_title": "Ukraine to win Eurovision 2022?", "slug": "ukraine-to-win-eurovision-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-10T06:20:23.078129Z", "published_at": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.085958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:53:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10623, "title": "Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?", "created_at": "2022-04-10T06:20:23.078129Z", "open_time": "2022-04-17T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-18T14:51:12.109264Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-18T14:51:12.109264Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-15T14:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international songwriting competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, transmitted to national broadcasters via the EBU's Eurovision and Euroradio networks, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.\n\n[The Eurovision Song Contest 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2022) is the upcoming 66th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. Forty countries will take part in the contest. The grand final is due to be held on May 14, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if an entry representing Ukraine in the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest is declared the winner of the contest. 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The grand final is due to be held on May 14, 2022." }, { "id": 10621, "title": "Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?", "short_title": "Elon Musk Twitter CEO before 2025", "url_title": "Elon Musk Twitter CEO before 2025", "slug": "elon-musk-twitter-ceo-before-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-10T01:49:16.411493Z", "published_at": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.197708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 126, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-31T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T22:41:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 372, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10621, "title": "Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-04-10T01:49:16.411493Z", "open_time": "2022-04-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-14T16:11:32.281893Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-14T16:11:32.281893Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-31T22:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-31T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-31T22:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elon Reeve Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk), born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and the [Forbes real-time billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#186117953d78). \n\nIn April 2022, it was [revealed that Musk had built a substantial equity stake in Twitter](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-discloses-92-stake-twitter-2022-04-04/), becoming the social media site's largest shareholder. [He was subsequently expected to be appointed to the company's board of directors,](https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-name-top-shareholder-musk-board-2022-04-05/) and indicated a desire [\"to make significant improvements to Twitter in coming months!\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1511322655609303043?s=20&t=13tk1jk_1GlkpoyazKfWpA)\n\nHowever, on April 10 2022, current Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announced that [Musk had decided not to join the company's board.](https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1513354622466867201) No explanation was given as to why.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between April 1, 2022 to January 1 2025, Elon Musk holds the position of CEO of Twitter, including 'Acting CEO' or 'Interim CEO,' or holds a position that carries with it the powers and duties typical of a corporate CEO, even if that is not Musk's actual title", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667256043.25688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 372, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667256043.25688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 372, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9275187306867364 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.003336959314416864, 0.0010305858253024742, 0.0005103108293019643, 0.00032951988645902106, 0.0021696662013928063, 2.0213739938888505e-07, 0.00037614070430618825, 0.0011999717398150321, 0.00027554350868569134, 0.002805209327995312, 0.0007434154269811217, 0.0007157676522130544, 0.00030143334792240214, 0.0016572501894879476, 0.0016615072296073292, 0.0017899558122250127, 0.0005552415385771296, 0.0, 2.1667038169622665e-06, 0.0031972444221944167, 2.8476697740905975e-06, 0.0010731468056288953, 0.0, 6.888226449751398e-07, 0.010578500536653688, 0.0, 0.0018597717348521386, 0.0001306196243756205, 0.0, 0.0004555696068232073, 0.0020218133320874052, 0.00202948710076097, 0.002227370223232512, 8.052961215367687e-06, 0.0001137565840994197, 0.003037975441073408, 0.005620679575762498, 0.0031717747986825468, 0.0, 0.005061186277590389, 0.006355919083823962, 0.0, 0.00016759449476713375, 0.00012444192944918494, 0.002025177741782432, 0.0037877388470049962, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4062907511026464e-05, 0.799269034749668, 0.0031525227819639515, 6.1001839426589536e-06, 2.7198815467657494e-05, 4.0179641053704135e-05, 0.00017585125840279616, 0.0010556136484243318, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2860724666218965e-07, 0.7828172841838266, 0.052775266985453206, 0.005428707284589493, 0.0, 0.009085192036561881, 1.6840534139808099, 0.8554365128672905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005827507510483361, 0.0065899898194386524, 0.0, 0.0, 2.288620444442262e-05, 0.0, 0.048694100548600315, 0.004073499708002933, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2425665320471345e-05, 0.008720766953873896, 0.010149172892007839, 0.6071330653365757, 0.6584316482484757, 0.0, 1.2321031140365866, 0.005238957900551884, 0.0, 0.005055383711930322, 0.015182183884634508, 0.19749205132952263, 0.04637724031036469, 0.499471546702575, 0.026138341999498164, 0.39972303449568164, 3.977666240420767, 0.7658053023314413, 0.22953916218217116, 1.71379470284102, 22.347621544656825 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.9298870361173326, "coverage": 0.20198270258732548, "baseline_score": -14.541520229830745, "spot_peer_score": 35.07469391779528, "peer_archived_score": 2.9298870361173326, "baseline_archived_score": -14.541520229830745, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.07469391779528 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667256043.296908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 372, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667256043.296908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 372, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0749551257758061, 0.9250448742241939 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1739, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elon Reeve Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk), born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and the [Forbes real-time billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#186117953d78). \n\nIn April 2022, it was [revealed that Musk had built a substantial equity stake in Twitter](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-discloses-92-stake-twitter-2022-04-04/), becoming the social media site's largest shareholder. [He was subsequently expected to be appointed to the company's board of directors,](https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-name-top-shareholder-musk-board-2022-04-05/) and indicated a desire [\"to make significant improvements to Twitter in coming months!\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1511322655609303043?s=20&t=13tk1jk_1GlkpoyazKfWpA)\n\nHowever, on April 10 2022, current Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal announced that [Musk had decided not to join the company's board.](https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1513354622466867201) No explanation was given as to why." }, { "id": 10616, "title": "Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "China Abandons Zero-COVID by June 1, 2022", "url_title": "China Abandons Zero-COVID by June 1, 2022", "slug": "china-abandons-zero-covid-by-june-1-2022", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-08T20:46:17.619807Z", "published_at": "2022-04-11T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.658115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-11T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:51:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-11T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10616, "title": "Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-08T20:46:17.619807Z", "open_time": "2022-04-11T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-12T00:07:51.448931Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-12T00:07:51.448931Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T16:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Quartz](https://qz.com/2148921/when-will-china-move-on-from-its-zero-covid-policy/),\n\n> For much of the pandemic, China saw its zero-covid strategy as proof of its political system’s superiority in dealing with the virus. But Shanghai’s struggles show Beijing is now clinging to a strategy whose costs and dangers are mounting.\n\n> In previous waves of covid, the strategy of mass testing and quarantining positive cases, along with partial lockdowns and border measures, was able to outpace the spread of the virus. But the highly transmissible nature of the omicron variant and its subtypes means it’s moving faster than China’s tried-and-tested methods to control it. Despite the financial hub’s two-stage lockdown—now extended indefinitely—China’s covid cases shot up from double digits in early March to over 20,000 on Tuesday (April 5).\n\n> Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that China won’t relax its prevention tactics until 2023, because of a key political event that will take place in October or November. At this year’s Communist Party Congress, which takes place every five years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to announce his third term. Until it’s over, the whole system is even more geared than usual to maintaining stability and to avoiding a potential embarrassment to the party.", "resolution_criteria": "China is said to have abandoned their zero-covid strategy before June 1st 2022 if ANY of the following things become true,\n\n* A member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party makes a clear public statement announcing that the central government is abandoning their policy of zero-covid, and this statement is not censured or retracted within 24 hours.\n\n* Articles from both the Associated Press and Reuters unambiguously state that the government of China is in the process of abandoning their zero-covid strategy.\n\n* A generic person who tests positive in China for COVID-19 is no longer legally required to self-isolate for any amount of time, after testing positive.\n\n* There is at least one city in mainland China with a population of more than one million people (by metro area) which recorded at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases in the past 7 days, and is not currently imposing any lockdown over a significant fraction (>2%) of its residents. A lockdown is defined as any policy of major restrictions on ordinary travel, or restrictions on social gatherings.\n\nIf before June 1st 2022, China has abandoned their zero-covid strategy, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654053841.695164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654053841.695164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021105343583902685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.667023965837156, 2.094334554217256, 0.39635240773283187, 0.9424331613166893, 0.8856333653814316, 0.0025795578668252835, 0.0012251403002593694, 0.12087034170197751, 0.0, 0.1746612220791844, 0.001800780488053471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009775296010834296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000509747891376459, 0.0, 0.0019342456402748481, 0.5919340672312883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000769489293176254, 0.013855045363230952, 0.0, 0.0006570960175078045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025600899107782187, 0.0, 2.243922732758598e-05, 6.0996143889238595e-05, 0.005629031278669529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030379767063669827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003480924251483541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.413805993293709, "coverage": 0.9970382814387976, "baseline_score": 71.54187199077208, "spot_peer_score": 0.5464116890087671, "peer_archived_score": 8.413805993293709, "baseline_archived_score": 71.54187199077208, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.5464116890087671 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654053841.720341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654053841.720341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 317, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Quartz](https://qz.com/2148921/when-will-china-move-on-from-its-zero-covid-policy/),\n\n> For much of the pandemic, China saw its zero-covid strategy as proof of its political system’s superiority in dealing with the virus. But Shanghai’s struggles show Beijing is now clinging to a strategy whose costs and dangers are mounting.\n\n> In previous waves of covid, the strategy of mass testing and quarantining positive cases, along with partial lockdowns and border measures, was able to outpace the spread of the virus. But the highly transmissible nature of the omicron variant and its subtypes means it’s moving faster than China’s tried-and-tested methods to control it. Despite the financial hub’s two-stage lockdown—now extended indefinitely—China’s covid cases shot up from double digits in early March to over 20,000 on Tuesday (April 5).\n\n> Nevertheless, the consensus seems to be that China won’t relax its prevention tactics until 2023, because of a key political event that will take place in October or November. At this year’s Communist Party Congress, which takes place every five years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to announce his third term. Until it’s over, the whole system is even more geared than usual to maintaining stability and to avoiding a potential embarrassment to the party." }, { "id": 10614, "title": "Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?", "short_title": "Elon Musk Becomes World's First Trillionaire", "url_title": "Elon Musk Becomes World's First Trillionaire", "slug": "elon-musk-becomes-worlds-first-trillionaire", "author_id": 121219, "author_username": "andreferretti", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-08T19:23:54.351809Z", "published_at": "2022-04-13T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T06:53:00.134776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-13T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2074-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-13T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 306, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10614, "title": "Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?", "created_at": "2022-04-08T19:23:54.351809Z", "open_time": "2022-04-13T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-15T02:25:32.976407Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-15T02:25:32.976407Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2074-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2074-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the world create the first Trillionaire?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/)\n\n----\n\nIn early April 2022, [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78) lists the wealthiest people in the world: Elon Musk ($280B), Jeff Bezos ($180B), Bernard Arnault & family ($170B), Bill Gates ($130B), Warren Buffett ($130B).\n\nElon Musk is an entrepreneur, investor, and business magnate. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla; founder of The Boring Company; and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$280 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk has a net worth of 1 trillion nominal USD before any other person, according to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78). If any other person reaches this milestone before Elon Musk (e.g., Jeff Bezos becomes the first trillionaire), the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no individual has a net worth greater than 1 trillion USD before January 1, 2075, or by the time of Musk's death, this question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763578882.640465, "end_time": 1783169734.134, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763578882.640465, "end_time": 1783169734.134, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.33260524673417546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5570055786275554, 0.9000112617436155, 0.017605244668478164, 0.3336961193245032, 0.4424487549053264, 1.1460392620167605, 0.5157574365755382, 0.039545305928089046, 0.15316008911363116, 0.32349475042241954, 1.7524522533716764, 0.9784753545766701, 0.8023469512961798, 0.8253131919461707, 0.0, 1.9908944161676536, 0.4135637822190573, 0.4007499752641528, 0.09903028619823598, 0.5537994216011916, 1.4477869424988985, 0.0017267156063372675, 0.5537693832503406, 4.900538284138497e-05, 0.04557432652810974, 3.9711419614515306, 0.6093510989461526, 0.9734325131034285, 0.6264761165600372, 0.0, 1.617272579756344, 0.0, 0.026706549782889354, 0.003965379072250446, 0.0015766640331948787, 0.06145379479588998, 0.11356851431845784, 0.6657139631015965, 0.24004556868153507, 0.09271667665861721, 1.6444914417381895, 3.520327586999537e-05, 0.00040354113139617925, 0.0, 0.28610675342578445, 0.0, 8.230837214163833e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6777029401601298e-06, 0.15967922995773298, 1.0750457195037157, 0.02976501363006374, 3.758310505540819e-05, 0.0, 0.0019052767420036753, 0.0, 2.9454739924271647e-05, 0.0, 0.29510353878855333, 0.45999816894491674, 4.090287955871909e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016526989785396705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.591752071477803, 0.1964865402509111, 0.9080878193600921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5132912809892566, 0.9172390902074423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4432208439508608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1473474610485956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.302519359174931e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08149360241614376, 0.5098238921559434, 0.0, 1.2077906840904238e-05, 0.0, 1.7405162572442765 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289146.992981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289146.992981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9274467405742752, 0.07255325942572481 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 28, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 933, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the world create the first Trillionaire?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/)\n\n----\n\nIn early April 2022, [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78) lists the wealthiest people in the world: Elon Musk ($280B), Jeff Bezos ($180B), Bernard Arnault & family ($170B), Bill Gates ($130B), Warren Buffett ($130B).\n\nElon Musk is an entrepreneur, investor, and business magnate. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla; founder of The Boring Company; and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$280 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world." }, { "id": 10609, "title": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?", "short_title": "EU winner of Eurovision 2022", "url_title": "EU winner of Eurovision 2022", "slug": "eu-winner-of-eurovision-2022", "author_id": 122001, "author_username": "onga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-08T11:12:31.283691Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.922329Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:51:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10609, "title": "Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?", "created_at": "2022-04-08T11:12:31.283691Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-15T14:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-15T14:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-14T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual singing competition between many of the member states of the [European Broadcasting Union](https://www.ebu.ch). The 2022 ESC is being held in Turin, Italy. Eurovision is regularly one of the most watched non-sports television broadcasts, with [183 million viewers in 2021.](https://eurovision.tv/story/183-million-viewers-welcome-back-the-eurovision-song-contest) <br />\nThere are [40 participants](https://eurovision.tv/event/turin-2022/participants) in this year's competition. 24 out of the 27 EU members states are among this number (Hungary, Luxembourg and Slovakia are not competing). <br />\nItaly, France, Germany, Spain and the UK are guaranteed places in the final, as the biggest funders of the EBU. <br />\nWhile Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey are members of the EBU, they are not participating in the 2022 ESC. <br />\nBelarus was removed from the EBU in 2021, and Russia was in 2022. Neither will participate in 2022. <br />\nThe EU is an international political and economic bloc of 27 member states. It is distinct from the Council of Europe, European Free Trade Association and Schengen Area. <br />\nRules on a tie situation are viewable [here.](https://eurosong-contest.fandom.com/wiki/Tie_Situation)\nThe question will close after the semi-finals, but before the final.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if a member country of the European Union (as retrievable at the [EU Website](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles_en)) is declared the winner of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest on the [Eurovision website](https://eurovision.tv). <br />\nThe question will resolve negatively if any non-EU country wins or no country wins.", "fine_print": "If there is no winner publicised on the Eurovision website, reputable media reports will be considered. If no voting in the finals takes place, or the voting does not finish, the question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 10609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652519756.644969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652519756.644969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34433707012967085 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7439201782653615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05661415553971211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7248008936239904, 0.0, 0.8966824878575538, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0872179418208006, 1.0, 1.2683197177336019, 0.0, 0.8780780522745004, 0.4337183691184219, 0.5175953131017844, 0.48637081821876194, 0.9244383481296953, 0.2714154180589184, 0.3961752312759704, 0.36005947484788825, 0.8236569933438427, 0.0, 0.11977186111144356, 0.07964779781950536, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06984569336479438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1117888776431535, "coverage": 0.9818361021824172, "baseline_score": 13.941147555056565, "spot_peer_score": 19.81583046656703, "peer_archived_score": 2.1117888776431535, "baseline_archived_score": 13.941147555056565, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.81583046656703 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652519756.660204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652519756.660204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7723703162740618, 0.2276296837259382 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual singing competition between many of the member states of the [European Broadcasting Union](https://www.ebu.ch). The 2022 ESC is being held in Turin, Italy. Eurovision is regularly one of the most watched non-sports television broadcasts, with [183 million viewers in 2021.](https://eurovision.tv/story/183-million-viewers-welcome-back-the-eurovision-song-contest) <br />\nThere are [40 participants](https://eurovision.tv/event/turin-2022/participants) in this year's competition. 24 out of the 27 EU members states are among this number (Hungary, Luxembourg and Slovakia are not competing). <br />\nItaly, France, Germany, Spain and the UK are guaranteed places in the final, as the biggest funders of the EBU. <br />\nWhile Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Turkey are members of the EBU, they are not participating in the 2022 ESC. <br />\nBelarus was removed from the EBU in 2021, and Russia was in 2022. Neither will participate in 2022. <br />\nThe EU is an international political and economic bloc of 27 member states. It is distinct from the Council of Europe, European Free Trade Association and Schengen Area. <br />\nRules on a tie situation are viewable [here.](https://eurosong-contest.fandom.com/wiki/Tie_Situation)\nThe question will close after the semi-finals, but before the final." }, { "id": 10604, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?", "short_title": "VA Current hospitalizations >1,500 by July 1", "url_title": "VA Current hospitalizations >1,500 by July 1", "slug": "va-current-hospitalizations-1500-by-july-1", "author_id": 119055, "author_username": "srinivv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-07T14:22:31.950127Z", "published_at": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.754057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T20:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T20:07:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1216, "type": "tournament", "name": "Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making", "slug": "realtimepandemic", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/realtime-small.jpeg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-11-12T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-05-31T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-05-06T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Real-time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament! 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This is a follow-on to the recently completed and highly successful Virginia Lightning Round Tournament. This tournament will consist of COVID-19 related questions written in conjunction with the University of Virginia to support decision-making at the Virginia Department of Health.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open. You can start anytime.\r\n\r\nHappy forecasting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2981, "type": "question_series", "name": "Real-time Pandemic Decision Making: Round 8", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-04-30T16:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.479777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:52:18.966361Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10601, "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-07T14:20:08.729601Z", "open_time": "2022-04-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-17T15:59:59.222400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-17T15:59:59.222400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the \"7 Day Moving Average of COVID-19 Current Hospitalizations (Confirmed + Pending)\" reaches or breached 500 at any time between April 8, 2022 to May 19, 2022, according to the \"Hospitalization Trends\" tab on the Virginia Hospital COVID-19 [Dashboard](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650479736.324973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650479736.324973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4871179499421604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.35966622486469013, 0.772330576101931, 1.0357169617274955, 1.5209642246635193, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650479736.337198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650479736.337198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5887021312695961, 0.41129786873040386 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nationwide, new COVID-19 hospitalizations have [declined](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions) following the surge due to the Omicron wave. Given the unprecedented case numbers and likely testing capacity constraints, hospitalizations are a more reliable indicator of the Omicron wave's overall impact.\n\nAs of April 6, 2022, the 7-day moving average of confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia is [245](https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/)." }, { "id": 10585, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?", "short_title": "Ceasefire in Tigray War before 2023", "url_title": "Ceasefire in Tigray War before 2023", "slug": "ceasefire-in-tigray-war-before-2023", "author_id": 122585, "author_username": "ok", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-06T12:07:29.512663Z", "published_at": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.689807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-01T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-01T20:24:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10585, "title": "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-04-06T12:07:29.512663Z", "open_time": "2022-05-02T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-04T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-04T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-01T20:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-01T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-01T20:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) forces that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of April 2022. An estimated 1.7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands reportedly face starvation if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The [United States is escalating pressure](https://www.state.gov/united-states-actions-to-press-for-the-resolution-of-the-crisis-in-the-tigray-region-of-ethiopia/) on Ethiopia to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone.\n\nIn April of 2022 Human Rights Watch put out [a report](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/06/ethiopia-crimes-against-humanity-western-tigray-zone) detailing war crimes in Tigray region.\n\nIncluded in the report:\n\n> [On March 24, the government announced [a humanitarian truce](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/06/ethiopia-crimes-against-humanity-western-tigray-zone).\n\nAccording to [AP reporting](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-4790308166bf9e6a1705675fccb53cf6) , \"Debretsion (leader of the Tigray forces) proposed an immediate cease-fire to be followed by negotiations.\" See [recent updates](https://www.africanews.com/2022/04/27/ethiopia-tigray-rebels-withdraw-from-afar/) to the humanitarian truce.\n\nThis [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/world/middleeast/truce-cease-fire-and-armistice-the-legal-nuances.html) has some good definitions for truce and ceasefire. Quotes below:\n\n- truce:\n> Strictly speaking, a truce is an informal halt in fighting. They are typically arranged locally — think of enemy commanders agreeing under a white flag to allow each side some time to evacuate casualties from a battlefield. Truces tend to be brief and temporary, and do not necessarily signal any willingness to settle the larger conflict.\n\n- ceasefire\n> A cease-fire is typically a negotiated agreement to cease hostilities and take other steps to calm things down, like pulling back heavy weapons or marking out a “green line” or demilitarized zone to separate opposing forces. Though cease-fires are usually meant to be binding, to last a while and to hold even after a few violations, they do not themselves end a conflict, only pause it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Tigrayan and Ethiopian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as **No** if no ceasefire has gone into effect by January 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution in 2023 is possible if a ceasefire goes into effect late in late 2022.\nA humanitarian truce will not suffice to answer this question in the affirmative. If a superseding peace agreement is reached within the initial 30 day period of ceasefire, or if the ceasefire period extends beyond 30 days, this question will resolve positively after 30 days of the basic conditions of the ceasefire continuing to be adhered to.\n\nThis question may not resolve before 30 days have elapsed from the ceasefire agreement's beginning date. For this question to resolve affirmatively, any subsequent peace agreement must ensure that the conditions of the ceasefire are adhered to under the ensuing agreement.\n\nIf a ceasefire is declared void or if one side formally accuses the other of breaching the terms of the ceasefire before 30 days of cessation of hostilities, this will void the initiating ceasefire's potential for question resolution, and the clock will \"reset\" to zero days.\n\nIf a peace deal or otherwise superseding agreement between the two parties, such as an armistice, is reached before a ceasefire is negotiated, then this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 10585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669931221.521545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669931221.521545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8587382955174456 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06327492015001017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.048426974058352196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.008989477094713162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.159228013413647, 0.05548779491047209, 0.012311991125938967, 0.06393440293816416, 0.0, 0.07312620373778346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14329729498878083, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4881318146518435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08125654110596578, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4111953249574266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7212270395355989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36626470192572247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.6257304587135947, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 2.870502209715259, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.52137992861865 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.264175479857265, "coverage": 0.876445147625105, "baseline_score": -7.248634667620208, "spot_peer_score": 45.965285108189086, "peer_archived_score": 19.264175479857265, "baseline_archived_score": -7.248634667620208, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.965285108189086 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1669905476.783602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1669905476.783602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12799260712499627, 0.8720073928750037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) forces that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of April 2022. An estimated 1.7 million people have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands reportedly face starvation if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The [United States is escalating pressure](https://www.state.gov/united-states-actions-to-press-for-the-resolution-of-the-crisis-in-the-tigray-region-of-ethiopia/) on Ethiopia to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone.\n\nIn April of 2022 Human Rights Watch put out [a report](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/06/ethiopia-crimes-against-humanity-western-tigray-zone) detailing war crimes in Tigray region.\n\nIncluded in the report:\n\n> [On March 24, the government announced [a humanitarian truce](https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/06/ethiopia-crimes-against-humanity-western-tigray-zone).\n\nAccording to [AP reporting](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-4790308166bf9e6a1705675fccb53cf6) , \"Debretsion (leader of the Tigray forces) proposed an immediate cease-fire to be followed by negotiations.\" See [recent updates](https://www.africanews.com/2022/04/27/ethiopia-tigray-rebels-withdraw-from-afar/) to the humanitarian truce.\n\nThis [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/world/middleeast/truce-cease-fire-and-armistice-the-legal-nuances.html) has some good definitions for truce and ceasefire. Quotes below:\n\n- truce:\n> Strictly speaking, a truce is an informal halt in fighting. They are typically arranged locally — think of enemy commanders agreeing under a white flag to allow each side some time to evacuate casualties from a battlefield. Truces tend to be brief and temporary, and do not necessarily signal any willingness to settle the larger conflict.\n\n- ceasefire\n> A cease-fire is typically a negotiated agreement to cease hostilities and take other steps to calm things down, like pulling back heavy weapons or marking out a “green line” or demilitarized zone to separate opposing forces. Though cease-fires are usually meant to be binding, to last a while and to hold even after a few violations, they do not themselves end a conflict, only pause it." }, { "id": 10577, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Trump Allowed on Twitter by 2024 Election", "url_title": "Trump Allowed on Twitter by 2024 Election", "slug": "trump-allowed-on-twitter-by-2024-election", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-04T18:56:03.147756Z", "published_at": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.671454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-20T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-20T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 298, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10577, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2022-04-04T18:56:03.147756Z", "open_time": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-08T10:45:08.033463Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-08T10:45:08.033463Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-20T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-20T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-20T01:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/)\n* [Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/) [closed]\n\n----\n\n[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nTrump's social media presence attracted attention worldwide since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 57,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than [88 million followers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/12/05/trump-suddenly-loses-220000-twitter-followers-first-big-drop-in-5-years/) on the platform before he was banned. \n\nTrump was '[permanently suspended](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension)' from Twitter following the events of January 6th, 2021:\n\n>After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them — specifically how they are being received and interpreted on and off Twitter — we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence. \n\nIn April 2022, billionaire entrepreneur and Twitter aficionado [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) became Twitter's largest shareholder, [with a 9.2% stake in the company](https://fortune.com/2022/04/04/elon-musk-criticized-twitter-not-supporting-free-speech-bought-stake-shares-jumped/), after criticizing the platform for failing to adhere to the free speech principle.\n\nElon Musk on Twitter: [Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507777261654605828)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to November 5, 2024, the date of the 60th quadrennial United States presidential election, Donald J. Trump is permitted to directly operate a personal Twitter account. Trump must be allowed to tweet on his own behalf for a positive resolution; restrictions that allow Trump to post only via an intermediary will not count. \n\nTrump need not actually choose to do this to resolve the question as **Yes**; he must merely be allowed to do so. \n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of statements by Twitter, or credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668913393.785725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 302, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668913393.785725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 302, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8850857089855856 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0015056417293534711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003547255858801621, 0.0007671366011957755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00034472677821528177, 0.0004374726204341151, 0.0, 0.0003363643275224702, 0.0002862620981556047, 0.0011173966212656896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003188569004060549, 0.0005650184003420189, 0.0019457053650168712, 0.0, 0.0008323871433526744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004850042752225418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2091147317054732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041531048935220395, 0.0008207779335653055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031293760526354664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018196589142769726, 0.0, 0.00030216760790231653, 0.0, 1.7196690850353325e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013736542838639504, 0.0014137728463042203, 0.0, 0.46572959009267445, 0.15040943435220067, 0.003435999960819249, 0.0, 0.0007615854571506945, 0.9938283757588129, 0.013468931690826084, 0.13760853629928677, 0.0, 0.0012884157679068375, 0.2644926901962946, 0.620119097997617, 0.0, 0.147330666903171, 0.49980608629755363, 0.5149781654531491, 0.5734536828107345, 0.19790321887047255, 0.11688076279464998, 0.16710193025475817, 1.5401027195599528, 0.011782845504090615, 0.03840267194100029, 0.6793682634927081, 0.32586475575616713, 0.6735157883646984, 0.354212187335508, 0.30371444384215734, 1.034808013698178, 1.7124113192268595e-05, 1.0014164836985207, 0.021271270096332305, 0.15364705075133173, 0.011492507029297622, 0.5191145684458672, 2.268585229933863, 0.07085549616281432, 1.2092361860694694, 0.4797788449426597, 0.04986130084005325, 2.0754496512810814, 0.8971715602335253, 1.3446568672975263, 0.8177462491857244, 12.265194289001888 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.9922608806739196, "coverage": 0.24142814992280237, "baseline_score": -1.8301022932256972, "spot_peer_score": -1.1036958991214185, "peer_archived_score": -0.9922608806739196, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8301022932256972, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1036958991214185 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668849315.314324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668849315.314324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.20784574057855354, 0.7921542594214465 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 886, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Donald Trump regain a Twitter account in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9163/trump-back-on-twitter-in-2022/)\n* [Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/) [closed]\n\n----\n\n[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nTrump's social media presence attracted attention worldwide since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 57,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than [88 million followers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/12/05/trump-suddenly-loses-220000-twitter-followers-first-big-drop-in-5-years/) on the platform before he was banned. \n\nTrump was '[permanently suspended](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension)' from Twitter following the events of January 6th, 2021:\n\n>After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them — specifically how they are being received and interpreted on and off Twitter — we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence. \n\nIn April 2022, billionaire entrepreneur and Twitter aficionado [Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) became Twitter's largest shareholder, [with a 9.2% stake in the company](https://fortune.com/2022/04/04/elon-musk-criticized-twitter-not-supporting-free-speech-bought-stake-shares-jumped/), after criticizing the platform for failing to adhere to the free speech principle.\n\nElon Musk on Twitter: [Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507777261654605828)" }, { "id": 10574, "title": "Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?", "short_title": "GWP Doubles in 8 Years vs. 2 Years By 2050", "url_title": "GWP Doubles in 8 Years vs. 2 Years By 2050", "slug": "gwp-doubles-in-8-years-vs-2-years-by-2050", "author_id": 116023, "author_username": "ege_erdil", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-04T09:37:13.415272Z", "published_at": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T13:32:46.323810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10574, "title": "Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?", "created_at": "2022-04-04T09:37:13.415272Z", "open_time": "2022-04-07T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-09T03:15:42.049511Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-09T03:15:42.049511Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the gross world product of Earth doubles in a period of 8 years or less before any doubling in a period of 2 years or less, according to [the World Bank](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPMKTPCDWLD). This question will only consider estimates reported on an annual basis. In the case that a 2-year doubling and 8-year doubling are achieved in the same year, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nGross world product should be measured in US dollars, or another stable currency/measure of value.\n\nIf there is no doubling in 8 years or less before 2050, this question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\". If the World Bank no longer provides this data, or the estimate is unreliable or inaccurate, Metaculus Admins may select another credible source, or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, estimates of GWP should include all economic activity within geosynchrous orbit of Earth.", "post_id": 10574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762522355.873946, "end_time": 1765844585.667522, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762522355.873946, "end_time": 1765844585.667522, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.6299407337971087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20598978202565338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 1.2573324053227797, 1.473628771566636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.6930988247168807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3384166906052229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7835029326219957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.05358792151110166, 0.23467590924354814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3884649765480077 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286903.199629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286903.199629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33826242201837886, 0.6617375779816211 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)" }, { "id": 10568, "title": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?", "short_title": "Yemen Ramadan Ceasefire 2022", "url_title": "Yemen Ramadan Ceasefire 2022", "slug": "yemen-ramadan-ceasefire-2022", "author_id": 125909, "author_username": "jonathan.mohrbacher", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-02T16:20:47.925586Z", "published_at": "2022-04-12T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.568571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-12T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-01T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-01T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-12T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10568, "title": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?", "created_at": "2022-04-02T16:20:47.925586Z", "open_time": "2022-04-12T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-14T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-14T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-01T19:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-01T19:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the evening that started this year's Ramadan, the UN announced a surprise breakthrough on the ceasefire in Yemen, which previously appeared unlikely. They now say both sides [have agreed to a full two-month ceasefire](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-01/yemen-govt-to-help-with-release-of-prisoners-open-sanaa-airport-in-truce-moves), beginning the first full day of Ramadan.\n\nThis will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population.\n\nThe death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a [report](https://www.ye.undp.org/content/yemen/en/home/library/assessing-the-impact-of-war-in-yemen--pathways-for-recovery.html) from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP.\n\nThe war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing [more than 35%](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-food-mideast-idAFL8N2V31BU) of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause [soaring increases](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-yemen-braces-wheat-shortage) in the price of food. \n\nUN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade.\n\nExact terms aren't public yet, but [the UN press release](https://osesgy.unmissions.org/press-statement-un-special-envoy-yemen-hans-grundberg-two-month-truce) states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed.\n\nThe two sides are also [discussing a prisoner swap](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-27/houthis-say-prisoner-swap-deal-includes-16-saudis-brother-of-yemen-president) under which hundreds from both sides would be freed.\n\nCeasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process.\n\nCredit: this background is adapted from [this article here](https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/01/un-says-two-month-yemen-ceasefire-agree-upon-will-ease-blockade/) and [this article here](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-war-death-toll-reach-un-report).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coaltion has stood for two months, beginning on midnight of April 2, 2022 (GMT+3) and ending on midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3). The ceasefire will be deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire is no longer in effect. This question will resolve negatively if the ceasefire breaks down before midnight of June 2, 2022 (GMT+3)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654112589.843085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.949880100953489 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654112589.843085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.949880100953489 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.929317644523388 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012345684322673096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013798417812875229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009502972007214205, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.026798832471155283, 0.010717274662964819, 0.03444657014975199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5442225819653826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2738063498702855, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.16312396575236543, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08023668698929762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12444141738618236, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14771689957981995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0960250916311845, 0.0, 0.5025943691050196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10482768695740607, 0.6637982914011386, 0.2226939645685136, 0.0, 0.20252827702246184, 0.06663686154666806, 0.2188739465098793, 0.6787010147693152, 0.5212472552187034, 1.7087874201490167, 0.6375225916282348, 7.217493215241225 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.090853900699706, "coverage": 0.999617126119288, "baseline_score": -0.761755311460727, "spot_peer_score": 22.83595698992308, "peer_archived_score": 11.090853900699706, "baseline_archived_score": -0.761755311460727, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.83595698992308 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654112589.857146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654112589.857146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11852224792915178, 0.8814777520708482 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the evening that started this year's Ramadan, the UN announced a surprise breakthrough on the ceasefire in Yemen, which previously appeared unlikely. They now say both sides [have agreed to a full two-month ceasefire](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-01/yemen-govt-to-help-with-release-of-prisoners-open-sanaa-airport-in-truce-moves), beginning the first full day of Ramadan.\n\nThis will be the first nationwide truce in Yemen in years, a welcome respite for its war-weary population.\n\nThe death toll of the war in Yemen is estimated to have been 377,000 at the end of 2021, according to a [report](https://www.ye.undp.org/content/yemen/en/home/library/assessing-the-impact-of-war-in-yemen--pathways-for-recovery.html) from the UN's Development Programme. The majority of the deaths are among children under the age of five, the report says, with one child dying every nine minutes according to the UNDP.\n\nThe war, which is in its seventh year, has seen some 80 percent of the population, or 24 million people, relying on aid and assistance, including 14.3 million who are in acute need. With Yemen importing [more than 35%](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-food-mideast-idAFL8N2V31BU) of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the disruption to wheat supplies will cause [soaring increases](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-yemen-braces-wheat-shortage) in the price of food. \n\nUN officials say the truce could be easily extended. The UN started with a ceasefire meant for just the month of Ramadan, but the Houthis were resisting when it didn't include any easing of the naval blockade.\n\nExact terms aren't public yet, but [the UN press release](https://osesgy.unmissions.org/press-statement-un-special-envoy-yemen-hans-grundberg-two-month-truce) states that the blockade will indeed be eased some. Fuel shipments to Hudaydah ports will be permitted, and certain flights in and out of Sana'a will also be allowed.\n\nThe two sides are also [discussing a prisoner swap](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-27/houthis-say-prisoner-swap-deal-includes-16-saudis-brother-of-yemen-president) under which hundreds from both sides would be freed.\n\nCeasefires don't always hold as hoped, but if this one does, it could be the start of a proper peace process.\n\nCredit: this background is adapted from [this article here](https://news.antiwar.com/2022/04/01/un-says-two-month-yemen-ceasefire-agree-upon-will-ease-blockade/) and [this article here](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-war-death-toll-reach-un-report)." }, { "id": 10562, "title": "Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?", "short_title": "Palin Wins Alaska US Rep. in 2022", "url_title": "Palin Wins Alaska US Rep. in 2022", "slug": "palin-wins-alaska-us-rep-in-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-04-02T00:35:36.005602Z", "published_at": "2022-04-08T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.889615Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-08T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T13:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T13:03:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-08T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10562, "title": "Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-04-02T00:35:36.005602Z", "open_time": "2022-04-08T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-09T03:35:56.766776Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-09T03:35:56.766776Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T13:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-24T13:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-24T13:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sarah Louise Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin), born February 11, 1964, is an American politician, commentator, author, and reality television personality who served as the 9th governor of Alaska from 2006 until her resignation in 2009. As the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee alongside Arizona Senator John McCain, she was the first Republican female vice presidential nominee and the second female vice presidential nominee of a major party, after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. The McCain-Palin ticket lost [the 2008 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election) to the Democratic Party's then-U.S. Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden.\n\nOn April 1 2022, [Palin announced her intention to seek election](https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/1510053091810451463) to the United States House of Representatives. [According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/us/politics/sarah-palin-running-congress-alaska.html),\n\n>Sarah Palin, a former Alaska governor and the Republican nominee for vice president in 2008, said Friday that she was entering the race for Alaska’s lone congressional seat, marking her return to national politics after she helped revive the anti-establishment rhetoric that has come to define the Republican Party.\n\n>She will be joining a crowded field of nearly 40 candidates to fill the House seat left vacant by Representative Don Young, whose unexpected death last month has spurred one of the largest political shifts in the state in 50 years.\n\n>Ms. Palin said she planned to honor Mr. Young’s legacy, painting a dystopian picture of the nation in crisis, criticizing the “radical left,” high gas prices, inflation and illegal immigration.\n\nThe [2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Republican U.S. Representative Don Young intended to run for re-election, but died on March 18, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Sarah Palin is elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in [the 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska). If Palin is not elected, the question resolves negatively. \n\nPalin must be elected as the US Representative for Alaska for this question to resolve positively; election to Congress in any other capacity does not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10562, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667761351.978403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667761351.978403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23965032069771586 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0673350568061037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27025882803140694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9511772415748411, 0.34313924226227516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9959840903522768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44738591292562574, 0.0, 1.6070206858898342, 0.07650168018741535, 0.41394993364156185, 0.5939122573645118, 0.43636458566252895, 4.401298148120112, 1.0609010399788859, 0.5910370829784467, 0.4193867588263634, 0.0, 0.5880820646163105, 0.9547323761971137, 0.26298381796946363, 0.5115825144092692, 0.0, 0.07816975781839666, 0.002427672491459788, 1.5572809091626785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8649384239468917, 0.0919780112420714, 0.12259660600934864, 0.01959714375698528, 0.2645246477336361, 0.09911530169373838, 0.002721071422163566, 0.0015683128067471189, 0.0, 0.00018771497257766645, 0.0014869499858813002, 0.0021847845343716758, 0.008199490813250472, 0.00047396543246213844, 0.009246848096712463, 0.0026914523047215848, 0.005253349196630287, 0.0023644043974821566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028276270357576735, 0.0, 0.00014824357997921995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003394354703474903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334259301884512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040398018227127625 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.73960661016863, "coverage": 0.9992740634616875, "baseline_score": 12.244144190692563, "spot_peer_score": 39.28663571178533, "peer_archived_score": 14.73960661016863, "baseline_archived_score": 12.244144190692563, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.28663571178533 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667761352.005299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667761352.005299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9109174297923187, 0.08908257020768133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 433, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sarah Louise Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin), born February 11, 1964, is an American politician, commentator, author, and reality television personality who served as the 9th governor of Alaska from 2006 until her resignation in 2009. As the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee alongside Arizona Senator John McCain, she was the first Republican female vice presidential nominee and the second female vice presidential nominee of a major party, after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. The McCain-Palin ticket lost [the 2008 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election) to the Democratic Party's then-U.S. Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden.\n\nOn April 1 2022, [Palin announced her intention to seek election](https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/1510053091810451463) to the United States House of Representatives. [According to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/us/politics/sarah-palin-running-congress-alaska.html),\n\n>Sarah Palin, a former Alaska governor and the Republican nominee for vice president in 2008, said Friday that she was entering the race for Alaska’s lone congressional seat, marking her return to national politics after she helped revive the anti-establishment rhetoric that has come to define the Republican Party.\n\n>She will be joining a crowded field of nearly 40 candidates to fill the House seat left vacant by Representative Don Young, whose unexpected death last month has spurred one of the largest political shifts in the state in 50 years.\n\n>Ms. Palin said she planned to honor Mr. Young’s legacy, painting a dystopian picture of the nation in crisis, criticizing the “radical left,” high gas prices, inflation and illegal immigration.\n\nThe [2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Republican U.S. Representative Don Young intended to run for re-election, but died on March 18, 2022." } ] }
