Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4240
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4220", "results": [ { "id": 10541, "title": "Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?", "short_title": "Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024?", "url_title": "Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024?", "slug": "hunter-biden-indicted-by-nov-5-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-31T05:10:58.855463Z", "published_at": "2022-04-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.589943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 288, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-14T17:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-14T17:28:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 312, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10541, "title": "Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-31T05:10:58.855463Z", "open_time": "2022-04-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-03T15:55:31.550026Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-03T15:55:31.550026Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-14T17:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-14T17:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-14T17:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Robert Hunter Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Biden), born February 4, 1970, is an American attorney who is the second son of current U.S. President Joe Biden and his first wife Neilia Hunter Biden. Biden is also a hedge fund, venture capital, and private-equity fund investor who formerly worked as a lobbyist, banker, public administration official, and registered lobbyist-firm attorney. \n\nWeeks before the 2020 United States presidential election, on October 14, 2020, [the New York Post ran a story](https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/) showing a screenshot of an alleged email from a top adviser to Ukrainian energy company Burisma to now-President Joe Biden's son Hunter, thanking him for the supposed opportunity to meet his father. The article alleges that this supports claims that Joe Biden used his political power to benefit his son Hunter in business dealings with Ukraine. At the time, other news organizations declined to publicise the story, [on the basis that it was not possible to verify the information.](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/22/leslie_stahl_were_not_covering_hunter_biden_laptop_because_it_cant_be_verified.html) \n\nIn March 2022, [the Washington Post reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/hunter-biden-laptop-data-examined/):\n\n>Thousands of emails purportedly from the laptop computer of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, are authentic communications that can be verified through cryptographic signatures from Google and other technology companies, say two security experts who examined the data at the request of The Washington Post.\n\nFurther, [CBS News reported](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunter-biden-federal-investigation-new-details/):\n\n>The federal investigation into Hunter Biden's business practices is broader than previously known, with multiple sources telling CBS News the probe is exploring whether the younger Biden and his associates violated tax, money laundering and foreign lobbying laws.\n\n>Business records reviewed by CBS News and documents released by Republicans in Congress indicate Hunter Biden and his firm were involved in multiple financial transactions with a Chinese energy company called CEFC. Republicans allege that the company is an arm of the Chinese government.\n\nSubsequently, as [reported by The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/600372-cnn-realistic-chance-hunter-biden-could-be-indicted/): \n\n>A top legal analyst at CNN said it is possible President Biden’s son Hunter Biden could be indicted by the U.S. government following an investigation into his foreign business dealings. \n\n>“This is a very real, very substantial investigation of potentially serious federal crimes,” Elie Honig said Wednesday morning on the network. “We are seeing federal prosecutors in Delaware do exactly what you would expect to see federal prosecutors do in this situation.” \n\n>Honig said it appears the investigation into Hunter Biden’s business overseas is “gaining steam.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before November 5, 2024, the date of the 60th quadrennial presidential election, Hunter Biden has been indicted in the United States on any charge(s) alleging violation of state or federal law. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur. No conviction is necessary for a positive resolution; this question concerns only indictment", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694689953.864433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 312, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694689953.864433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 312, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6584989638766526 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2047883973586644, 0.11699307541826334, 0.011417411383672763, 0.023869985276029494, 0.0, 0.04457487040067787, 0.015698057678502395, 0.0, 0.0012197972988163257, 0.0, 0.1130918594421852, 0.10979562119539424, 0.08235077082170428, 0.029558435548172165, 0.0, 0.1564500101700887, 0.08248329274957734, 0.004266480131235822, 0.13471895348529, 0.023248732220311836, 0.23311450423938576, 0.04122929856210531, 4.9422067345347576e-05, 0.12158124621474979, 0.16291387960106027, 0.044551570739844476, 0.00023288008071490569, 0.12519584287084928, 0.06107523524011462, 0.0, 0.13831851430101133, 1.1641472273733915e-06, 0.027535630643592532, 0.11192868148427022, 0.08283097443715412, 0.4950610895110324, 0.008732760511368854, 0.015955919810800436, 0.000529345182689785, 0.2275602018748922, 0.1993836614783066, 0.006789284392941683, 0.008152989556136539, 0.000874214524090164, 0.0001460208897038097, 0.7765174072770913, 0.7112893798353123, 0.0026954729235354794, 0.059748944135354844, 3.791336160326605e-05, 2.659190502601362, 0.00012521782075013707, 0.18363552835006003, 0.04330289809094973, 0.21459515063469375, 1.3176551310295146, 1.460016213179064, 0.0008978564044152663, 0.0, 0.0, 1.229211104397677, 1.6667702450238444e-06, 1.5782548539789345, 0.37150619767537585, 0.0, 2.973895938053874, 1.4795577534848197, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0990011597659122e-05, 2.257796160144613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020380022304528902, 0.0, 2.993826970706553, 0.0, 0.08502265070700883, 0.7303947337934653, 2.3219435803957993e-06, 2.891662375725557, 0.0, 0.6506172228469301, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4631500994534856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037778045093924476, 0.5962510157760252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8675290638541235, 0.5599053373324412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42641604782860865, 1.9384303275322616 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.440091787663857, "coverage": 0.5598167250064242, "baseline_score": -23.517090572987563, "spot_peer_score": 56.675988242574945, "peer_archived_score": 9.440091787663857, "baseline_archived_score": -23.517090572987563, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.675988242574945 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694689953.922072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 312, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694689953.922072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 312, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42710747923011894, 0.5728925207698811 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Robert Hunter Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunter_Biden), born February 4, 1970, is an American attorney who is the second son of current U.S. President Joe Biden and his first wife Neilia Hunter Biden. Biden is also a hedge fund, venture capital, and private-equity fund investor who formerly worked as a lobbyist, banker, public administration official, and registered lobbyist-firm attorney. \n\nWeeks before the 2020 United States presidential election, on October 14, 2020, [the New York Post ran a story](https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/) showing a screenshot of an alleged email from a top adviser to Ukrainian energy company Burisma to now-President Joe Biden's son Hunter, thanking him for the supposed opportunity to meet his father. The article alleges that this supports claims that Joe Biden used his political power to benefit his son Hunter in business dealings with Ukraine. At the time, other news organizations declined to publicise the story, [on the basis that it was not possible to verify the information.](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/22/leslie_stahl_were_not_covering_hunter_biden_laptop_because_it_cant_be_verified.html) \n\nIn March 2022, [the Washington Post reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/hunter-biden-laptop-data-examined/):\n\n>Thousands of emails purportedly from the laptop computer of Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, are authentic communications that can be verified through cryptographic signatures from Google and other technology companies, say two security experts who examined the data at the request of The Washington Post.\n\nFurther, [CBS News reported](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunter-biden-federal-investigation-new-details/):\n\n>The federal investigation into Hunter Biden's business practices is broader than previously known, with multiple sources telling CBS News the probe is exploring whether the younger Biden and his associates violated tax, money laundering and foreign lobbying laws.\n\n>Business records reviewed by CBS News and documents released by Republicans in Congress indicate Hunter Biden and his firm were involved in multiple financial transactions with a Chinese energy company called CEFC. Republicans allege that the company is an arm of the Chinese government.\n\nSubsequently, as [reported by The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/600372-cnn-realistic-chance-hunter-biden-could-be-indicted/): \n\n>A top legal analyst at CNN said it is possible President Biden’s son Hunter Biden could be indicted by the U.S. government following an investigation into his foreign business dealings. \n\n>“This is a very real, very substantial investigation of potentially serious federal crimes,” Elie Honig said Wednesday morning on the network. “We are seeing federal prosecutors in Delaware do exactly what you would expect to see federal prosecutors do in this situation.” \n\n>Honig said it appears the investigation into Hunter Biden’s business overseas is “gaining steam.”" }, { "id": 10495, "title": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Dnipro Under Russian Control on June 1", "url_title": "Dnipro Under Russian Control on June 1", "slug": "dnipro-under-russian-control-on-june-1", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-28T21:54:48.336171Z", "published_at": "2022-03-31T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.894583Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-31T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-31T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 246, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10495, "title": "Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-28T21:54:48.336171Z", "open_time": "2022-03-31T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-31T10:22:20.816160Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-31T10:22:20.816160Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Dnipro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) experienced its [first missile attack](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/europe/russia-invasion-ukraine-03-11-intl/index.html) in early March 2022 since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war in February, resulting in at least one death. If Russian forces look to move westwards from Mariupol, Odessa, and Kherson, Dnipro could become a possible target for invasion on the road toward Kyiv and West Ukraine.\n\n***Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if more than 50% of [Dnipro's raions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro#Subdivisions) are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.\n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653986664.155446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653986664.155446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01869981480438967 ], 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The city has been without water, electricity and heating, and it is impossible to count the number of deaths. This week, Ukraine rejected Russia’s ultimatum to surrender Mariupol.\"\n\n***Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if more than 50% of Mariupol's raions\\* are under de facto Russian military control on June 1, 2022.\n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.\n\n[fine-print]\n\n* Note that Donetsk Oblast contains the Mariupol Raion, which contains the Mariupol Hromada, which contains 4 raions. 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public transportation before 2024?", "short_title": "TSA Reimposes Mask Mandate before 2024", "url_title": "TSA Reimposes Mask Mandate before 2024", "slug": "tsa-reimposes-mask-mandate-before-2024", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-28T18:24:43.530442Z", "published_at": "2022-03-31T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.254286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-31T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-31T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, 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"binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mask mandates were widely introduced following the coronavirus pandemic. Yet, because of vaccines, natural immunity, and effective anti-virals, many people now believe that the virus poses only a minor risk to life and health, and thus, wish to return to a normal life. As of March 2022 in the United States, nearly all private and public institutions appear to have dropped their mask mandates, or are planning on doing so shortly.\n\nHowever, the federal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) appears to be among the last holdouts of this wave of normality. On March 10th, the TSA [announced](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/statements/2022/03/10/statement-regarding-face-mask-use-public-transportation) that they were extending the mask mandate on public transportation, in consultation with the CDC, until April 18th. It remains to be seen whether this mandate will be extended again, perhaps due to the [BA.2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_BA.2), or reimposed as cases rise again next winter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the TSA announces that at least some passengers in the United States are required to wear masks on ANY form of public transportation before 2024, following the current April 18th deadline when the [current mandate](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/statements/2022/03/10/statement-regarding-face-mask-use-public-transportation) is scheduled to expire.", "fine_print": "If, for example, the mandate is extended for planes but not trains, the question shall resolve positively. If the mandate is imposed in some places, but not all places, it still resolves positively. However, local mandates affecting public transportation do not count; only federal mandates will count for the purpose of this question.", "post_id": 10490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075729.674333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075729.674333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04956016974894675 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.916324120358894, 6.095180935376208, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.35452193194224874, 0.17652900265006702, 0.07184461761248319, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1035196906105591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2067706716351856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3404802043361362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.14329729498878083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.048426974058352196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.013300044562547289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015241095655114558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04371272295518056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.93201589086458, "coverage": 0.9989661810002328, "baseline_score": -6.3900764726470705, "spot_peer_score": 115.52453009332417, "peer_archived_score": 18.93201589086458, "baseline_archived_score": -6.3900764726470705, "spot_peer_archived_score": 115.52453009332417 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075729.696007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075729.696007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mask mandates were widely introduced following the coronavirus pandemic. Yet, because of vaccines, natural immunity, and effective anti-virals, many people now believe that the virus poses only a minor risk to life and health, and thus, wish to return to a normal life. As of March 2022 in the United States, nearly all private and public institutions appear to have dropped their mask mandates, or are planning on doing so shortly.\n\nHowever, the federal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) appears to be among the last holdouts of this wave of normality. On March 10th, the TSA [announced](https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/statements/2022/03/10/statement-regarding-face-mask-use-public-transportation) that they were extending the mask mandate on public transportation, in consultation with the CDC, until April 18th. It remains to be seen whether this mandate will be extended again, perhaps due to the [BA.2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_BA.2), or reimposed as cases rise again next winter." }, { "id": 10459, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting?", "short_title": "Federal Reserve Adoption of NGDP Targeting", "url_title": "Federal Reserve Adoption of NGDP Targeting", "slug": "federal-reserve-adoption-of-ngdp-targeting", "author_id": 120048, "author_username": "basil.halperin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-26T17:49:02.653204Z", "published_at": "2022-04-04T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.402991Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-04T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-04T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10459, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting?", "created_at": "2022-03-26T17:49:02.653204Z", "open_time": "2022-04-04T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-06T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-06T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For background, policies of “inflation targeting” have dominated in developed country central banks for the last three or four decades, implicitly or explicitly. Under this policy, central banks explicitly aim for some target rate of inflation (or target range) each year, \n\nFor example: the ECB, [as of 2021](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210708~dc78cc4b0d.en.html), has a symmetric, medium-term 2% inflation target; the Fed has since the 1990s been thought to operate under an implicit inflation target of 2%, [which it formalized in a 2012 statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20120125c.htm).\n\nMore recently, [the Fed has adopted a policy which has become known as \"flexible average inflation targeting\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200827a.htm), where it has stated or implied a willingness to allow inflation to go somewhat above 2% if inflation had been below 2% in the recent past; and vice versa for recent inflation overshoots. [Economic theory](http://www.columbia.edu/~mw2230/JHole2012final.pdf) predicts that this sort of “make-up policy”, compared to the prior policy of implicitly “letting bygones be bygones”, is very beneficial for avoiding recessions – particularly at the ZLB – by anchoring expectations for the future price level.\n\nSome economists argue that the Fed should make a more significant change to its policy framework, and focus on nominal GDP growth rather than inflation. Nominal GDP growth is equal to (by definition) the sum of inflation and real GDP growth:\n$$\n\\begin{aligned}\nNGDP &= \\underbrace{P}_{\\text{price level}} \\cdot \\underbrace{Y}_{\\text{real GDP}} \\\\ \\Longrightarrow \\Delta NGDP &= \\underbrace{\\Delta P}_{\\text{inflation}} + \\underbrace{\\Delta Y}_{\\text{real GDP growth}}\n\\end{aligned}\n$$\nFor example, the Fed might target 4% NGDP growth each year, expecting on average 2% growth in real GDP and therefore 2% inflation on average. \n\nUnder NGDP targeting, the central bank would allow inflation to rise when real growth is low (and vice versa). Many economists argue that such a policy would better prevent economic fluctuations ([particularly at the ZLB](https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8Z899CJ)) but [also more generally](https://mises.org/library/less-zero-case-falling-price-level-growing-economy-0). For more on NGDP targeting, see: [[1](https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/case-nominal-gdp-targeting)] [[2](https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/debt-and-incomplete-financial-markets-a-case-for-nominal-gdp-targeting/)] [[3](https://economics.mit.edu/files/16528)] [[4](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/monetary-misperceptions-food-banks-ngdp-targeting.html)].\n\nA similar, but slightly different alternative policy regime would target stable growth in nominal wages. Under nominal wage targeting, the central bank would aim for stable growth in an index of nominal wages in the economy. For example, the Fed might target 3.5% annual growth in an appropriate index of nominal wages, reflecting expectations for on average 1.5% growth in labor productivity and 2% inflation. For more on nominal wage targeting, see: [[1](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/sticky-prices-vs-sticky-wages.html)] [[2](https://www.basilhalperin.com/research.html#menucostspaper)] [[3](https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/floor-it-fixing-the-feds-framework-with-paychecks-not-prices-78171423e9c1)]", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as yes on the date that the Federal Reserve announces a policy regime that implements NGDP targeting; or as no on January 1, 2050, whichever comes first. This information is taken from (e.g.) the press releases available on [the Federal Reserve’s website](http://www.federalreserve.gov/).", "fine_print": "The question resolves to yes for either NGDP rate targeting or NGDP level targeting, and similarly for nominal wage targeting. NGDP targeting is also known as nominal income targeting. The resolution criterion requires an initial implementation, not merely an announcement of such a policy.", "post_id": 10459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752028870.379189, "end_time": 1782843641.647, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752028870.379189, "end_time": 1782843641.647, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.42732752485108955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.9074353916842878, 0.43289785514522633, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 1.5648024744626867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.5188862368377514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4644840372875958, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2813434543684066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1892806561044433 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286803.09964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286803.09964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6249112908170917, 0.3750887091829082 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For background, policies of “inflation targeting” have dominated in developed country central banks for the last three or four decades, implicitly or explicitly. Under this policy, central banks explicitly aim for some target rate of inflation (or target range) each year, \n\nFor example: the ECB, [as of 2021](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr210708~dc78cc4b0d.en.html), has a symmetric, medium-term 2% inflation target; the Fed has since the 1990s been thought to operate under an implicit inflation target of 2%, [which it formalized in a 2012 statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20120125c.htm).\n\nMore recently, [the Fed has adopted a policy which has become known as \"flexible average inflation targeting\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200827a.htm), where it has stated or implied a willingness to allow inflation to go somewhat above 2% if inflation had been below 2% in the recent past; and vice versa for recent inflation overshoots. [Economic theory](http://www.columbia.edu/~mw2230/JHole2012final.pdf) predicts that this sort of “make-up policy”, compared to the prior policy of implicitly “letting bygones be bygones”, is very beneficial for avoiding recessions – particularly at the ZLB – by anchoring expectations for the future price level.\n\nSome economists argue that the Fed should make a more significant change to its policy framework, and focus on nominal GDP growth rather than inflation. Nominal GDP growth is equal to (by definition) the sum of inflation and real GDP growth:\n$$\n\\begin{aligned}\nNGDP &= \\underbrace{P}_{\\text{price level}} \\cdot \\underbrace{Y}_{\\text{real GDP}} \\\\ \\Longrightarrow \\Delta NGDP &= \\underbrace{\\Delta P}_{\\text{inflation}} + \\underbrace{\\Delta Y}_{\\text{real GDP growth}}\n\\end{aligned}\n$$\nFor example, the Fed might target 4% NGDP growth each year, expecting on average 2% growth in real GDP and therefore 2% inflation on average. \n\nUnder NGDP targeting, the central bank would allow inflation to rise when real growth is low (and vice versa). Many economists argue that such a policy would better prevent economic fluctuations ([particularly at the ZLB](https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8Z899CJ)) but [also more generally](https://mises.org/library/less-zero-case-falling-price-level-growing-economy-0). For more on NGDP targeting, see: [[1](https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/case-nominal-gdp-targeting)] [[2](https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/debt-and-incomplete-financial-markets-a-case-for-nominal-gdp-targeting/)] [[3](https://economics.mit.edu/files/16528)] [[4](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/monetary-misperceptions-food-banks-ngdp-targeting.html)].\n\nA similar, but slightly different alternative policy regime would target stable growth in nominal wages. Under nominal wage targeting, the central bank would aim for stable growth in an index of nominal wages in the economy. For example, the Fed might target 3.5% annual growth in an appropriate index of nominal wages, reflecting expectations for on average 1.5% growth in labor productivity and 2% inflation. For more on nominal wage targeting, see: [[1](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/sticky-prices-vs-sticky-wages.html)] [[2](https://www.basilhalperin.com/research.html#menucostspaper)] [[3](https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/floor-it-fixing-the-feds-framework-with-paychecks-not-prices-78171423e9c1)]" }, { "id": 10448, "title": "Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Use of Chemical Weapons in UA 2022", "url_title": "Russian Use of Chemical Weapons in UA 2022", "slug": "russian-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-ua-2022", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-25T13:29:28.043716Z", "published_at": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.866761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 151, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T11:00:00Z", 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[\"Western military chiefs have expressed concern that Russia could resort to the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine,\"](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ukraine-fears-russia-could-use-chemical-weapons/) according to a UK Parliament research briefing published on March 18, 2022. The report provides relevant historical context: \n\n> During the Cold War, **the Soviet Union had the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons**: with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirming it held almost 40,000 metric tons of chemical agents, including VX nerve gas, sarin, soman, mustard gas and phosgene.\n\nDespite agreeing to destroy its stock of chemical and biological weapons by April 29, 2012 in accordance with the [Chemical Weapons Convention](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention), Russia has used chemical weapons in targeted attacks as recently as [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexei_Navalny). \n\nAs Matthew Bunn, Professor of the Practice of Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, [explains](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/03/harvard-analyst-assesses-chemical-weapon-threat-posed-by-russia/): \n\n> They have used small amounts of chemical weapons in assassinations or assassination attempts against dissidents, both in Russia, against Alexey Navalny, and in the U.K., against Sergei and Yulia Skripal. [...] Under the Chemical Weapons Convention, they’re not supposed to have any chemical weapons anymore, but **are believed to have significant stocks.**\n\nWestern governments are preparing for the possibility of Russian use of chemical weapons. On March 23, 2022, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html): \n\n> The White House has quietly assembled a team of national security officials to sketch out scenarios of how the United States and its allies should respond if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — frustrated by his lack of progress in Ukraine or determined to warn Western nations against intervening in the war — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.\n\nUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Russia against the use of these weapons, as [reported by the Guardian on March 24, 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/24/russia-chemical-weapons-g7-nato-boris-johnson-volodymyr-zelenskiy-tanks-jets): \n\n> Boris Johnson has warned of “catastrophic” consequences for Russia should Vladimir Putin use chemical weapons in Ukraine, though stopped short of saying that would include a military escalation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between March 1, 2022 and January 1, 2023, any of the following three conditions are met:\n\n* The heads of state of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council make a definitive statement to the effect that Russia has used chemical weapons.\n* There is a resolution by the UNSC or by the UN General Assembly condemning the use of chemical weapons in the Ukraine by Russia. \n* At least 6 of the following sources make a definitive statement that Russia has used chemical weapons: The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera, South China Morning Post, The Financial Times, The Washington Post.\n\nClarification on March 29, 2022: please note the following definition includes the use of chemical weapons in targeted attacks, including poisonings.\n\nWe will use the definition of \"Chemical Weapons\" provided by the [Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/articles/article-ii-definitions-and-criteria), whose mission is to implement the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention:\n\n> “Chemical Weapons” means the following, together or separately:\n\n> a) **Toxic chemicals** and their precursors, except where intended for purposes not prohibited under this Convention, as long as the types and quantities are consistent with such purposes;\n> b) Munitions and devices, specifically designed to cause death or other harm through the toxic properties of those toxic chemicals specified in subparagraph (a), which would be released as a result of the employment of such munitions and devices;\n> c) Any equipment specifically designed for use directly in connection with the employment of munitions and devices specified in subparagraph (b).\n\nWhere:\n\n> “Toxic Chemical” means:\n\n> Any chemical which through its chemical action on life processes can cause death, temporary incapacitation or permanent harm to humans or animals. This includes all such chemicals, regardless of their origin or of their method of production, and regardless of whether they are produced in facilities, in munitions or elsewhere. (For the purpose of implementing this Convention, toxic chemicals which have been identified for the application of verification measures are listed in Schedules contained in the Annex on Chemicals.)", "fine_print": "We define Ukraine as anywhere within the recognized borders of the country in December 2021, including the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donestk People's Republic.", "post_id": 10448, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672481002.179732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 648, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672481002.179732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 648, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01480442209216738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 44.18571202732172, 2.799574846703929, 0.7145861994394374, 0.15393485601172288, 0.3199165906951404, 0.013660885422656317, 0.037203367205212834, 0.03568762528472175, 0.003859039661596808, 0.2539097357916671, 0.007942442532935804, 0.0042786252671184995, 0.048554785562299044, 0.46900456366293736, 0.018320515620066428, 0.007907764717079574, 0.0007321168427564242, 0.0010545550217464256, 0.23335292864037782, 0.005039691241645175, 2.8779713501607504e-05, 0.0013204040629081334, 0.0, 0.0002846894219997445, 0.016434923921844972, 6.080561783296781e-05, 1.0796149526166248e-06, 0.022268222998779966, 0.0, 0.010185687985370027, 0.0005801272023374081, 5.373980606590399e-06, 3.347173379837597e-05, 0.022515140085709946, 0.0002551095262545339, 0.0006904277961541605, 0.0002441882684823028, 0.0043459164693604065, 6.863715372764912e-06, 0.0007115447144695158, 0.010553484783708352, 0.00025347269402655116, 6.786719103374133e-06, 8.58965900963637e-05, 0.00020657127088762175, 1.404860766558457e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2387822453546606e-05, 0.0005471097715415735, 0.0, 9.264020250230822e-05, 7.444611680632581e-05, 1.9909973954485332e-06, 0.00010870187409550289, 5.835172760983892e-06, 7.877462066657274e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001108426372814444, 0.0016131821947094418, 6.900467815426127e-05, 4.806680913821077e-10, 5.5399985363711066e-05, 0.0002158910067337302, 2.01413586962518e-05, 1.9854097509752243e-05, 4.134526608948889e-05, 0.0, 4.499500835336147e-05, 7.123205436252682e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0235375959392805e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204467326042014e-05, 4.526409775888408e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1779991008223505e-05, 0.0, 2.342048004606377e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.526513711176044e-05, 7.823103495466564e-05, 2.363847422634587e-07, 1.6149216541093007e-05, 0.0, 3.191276857260726e-05, 0.0, 2.125527058078163e-05, 0.0, 9.171243623722884e-06, 0.0, 0.0035203795446133654 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.493950330872647, "coverage": 0.9999678728977627, "baseline_score": 69.03404368382985, "spot_peer_score": 4.114719563398553, "peer_archived_score": 28.493950330872647, "baseline_archived_score": 69.03404368382985, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.114719563398553 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672481002.292411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 648, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672481002.292411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 648, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 42, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2678, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[\"Western military chiefs have expressed concern that Russia could resort to the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine,\"](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ukraine-fears-russia-could-use-chemical-weapons/) according to a UK Parliament research briefing published on March 18, 2022. The report provides relevant historical context: \n\n> During the Cold War, **the Soviet Union had the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons**: with the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirming it held almost 40,000 metric tons of chemical agents, including VX nerve gas, sarin, soman, mustard gas and phosgene.\n\nDespite agreeing to destroy its stock of chemical and biological weapons by April 29, 2012 in accordance with the [Chemical Weapons Convention](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention), Russia has used chemical weapons in targeted attacks as recently as [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Sergei_and_Yulia_Skripal) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexei_Navalny). \n\nAs Matthew Bunn, Professor of the Practice of Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, [explains](https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/03/harvard-analyst-assesses-chemical-weapon-threat-posed-by-russia/): \n\n> They have used small amounts of chemical weapons in assassinations or assassination attempts against dissidents, both in Russia, against Alexey Navalny, and in the U.K., against Sergei and Yulia Skripal. [...] Under the Chemical Weapons Convention, they’re not supposed to have any chemical weapons anymore, but **are believed to have significant stocks.**\n\nWestern governments are preparing for the possibility of Russian use of chemical weapons. On March 23, 2022, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html): \n\n> The White House has quietly assembled a team of national security officials to sketch out scenarios of how the United States and its allies should respond if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia — frustrated by his lack of progress in Ukraine or determined to warn Western nations against intervening in the war — unleashes his stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.\n\nUK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned Russia against the use of these weapons, as [reported by the Guardian on March 24, 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/24/russia-chemical-weapons-g7-nato-boris-johnson-volodymyr-zelenskiy-tanks-jets): \n\n> Boris Johnson has warned of “catastrophic” consequences for Russia should Vladimir Putin use chemical weapons in Ukraine, though stopped short of saying that would include a military escalation." }, { "id": 10444, "title": "Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?", "short_title": "Cause of Flight 5735 Crash", "url_title": "Cause of Flight 5735 Crash", "slug": "cause-of-flight-5735-crash", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-25T04:25:37.812499Z", "published_at": "2022-05-07T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.667270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-07T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-25T04:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-25T04:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-03T00:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-03T00:50:00Z", "open_time": "2022-05-07T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10444, "title": "Will a technical problem be identified as the cause of the crash of China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735?", "created_at": "2022-03-25T04:25:37.812499Z", "open_time": "2022-05-07T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-09T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-03T00:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-03T00:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-03T00:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-25T04:25:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-25T04:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Eastern_Airlines_Flight_5735) was a scheduled domestic Chinese passenger flight which crashed on March 21 2022 leaving no survivors. Due to the steep descent profile and high speed, nearly vertical orientation of the aircraft upon impact, and [precedent for airliner crashes involving suicide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot), there is [some speculation that the crash may have been intentional](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60856855). A competing hypothesis is that a technical problem like mechanical failure caused the crash.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if the NTSB conclude in a primary report that the crash was most likely caused by a technical problem, such as mechanical failure", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656125120.930831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656125120.930831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15914807314857968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4964719858559579, 0.9072432505975156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288650223506559, 0.0, 0.7795929709193394, 0.0892847326365231, 0.0, 1.114973417368199, 0.29653083970041383, 0.625397614004518, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 3.0748256976008213, 0.8970117075165028, 0.0, 0.32259358918532244, 1.592721207820079, 0.13573382863284894, 0.0, 0.16379137886358097, 0.012694324624729423, 0.008556628871015935, 0.006409490637180558, 0.04618511849820684, 0.0, 1.8911242317157404, 0.0, 0.8951097596335136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0573289658432643, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.0, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669981048994339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23730785012660063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656125120.950585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656125120.950585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9567864244199296, 0.043213575580070426 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[China Eastern Airlines Flight 5735](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Eastern_Airlines_Flight_5735) was a scheduled domestic Chinese passenger flight which crashed on March 21 2022 leaving no survivors. Due to the steep descent profile and high speed, nearly vertical orientation of the aircraft upon impact, and [precedent for airliner crashes involving suicide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_by_pilot), there is [some speculation that the crash may have been intentional](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60856855). A competing hypothesis is that a technical problem like mechanical failure caused the crash." }, { "id": 10436, "title": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?", "short_title": "Massive Solar Storm by 2050", "url_title": "Massive Solar Storm by 2050", "slug": "massive-solar-storm-by-2050", "author_id": 123641, "author_username": "Gillesbert", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-24T12:40:49.038344Z", "published_at": "2022-05-24T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T08:21:23.160103Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-05-24T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-05-24T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10436, "title": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-03-24T12:40:49.038344Z", "open_time": "2022-05-24T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-26T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - **massive solar storms**, such as the [Carrington event](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002JA009504) of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to [this study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734), the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. Such sudden electrical blackouts may threaten food production.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if the [Disturbance Storm Time index](https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/index.html) reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.", "fine_print": "If the WDC for Geomagnetism, Kyoto stops publishing data before question resolution, Metaculus staff may choose another credible source of similar data at their discretion. If no such source is found, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 10436, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763588291.15604, "end_time": 1765215141.509664, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763588291.15604, "end_time": 1765215141.509664, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.3004295518473763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.5370676552411993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1792663589359841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41885756471764407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 1.851195266191234, 0.0, 0.014457055007591726, 0.9356445192922368, 0.31768015703601027, 0.6647089477243179, 0.7635897992428782, 0.6668404605993656, 0.5119150033802263, 0.0, 1.1136015584798058, 0.8176137788112516, 0.0, 0.03420516586693059, 0.0, 0.1272873620801397, 0.0, 0.5687909113830645, 0.7126735024003407, 0.10452470613861276, 0.3347447033453994, 0.38938466889628753, 0.29021396348877304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6209060696997973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23059971548004934, 0.11471338589304478, 0.0, 0.08622329263095156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289543.965049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289543.965049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8528844349023166, 0.14711556509768348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 198, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - **massive solar storms**, such as the [Carrington event](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002JA009504) of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to [this study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734), the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. 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The \"red bloc\", consisting of the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, Socialist People's Party, the Red–Green Alliance, the Faroese Social Democratic Party and the Greenlandic Siumut,[5] won 93 of the 179 seats, securing a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the incumbent governing coalition, consisting of Venstre, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservative People's Party whilst receiving parliamentary support from the Danish People's Party and Nunatta Qitornai, was reduced to 76 seats (including the Venstre-affiliated Union Party in the Faroe Islands).\n\nThe Coronavirus situation resulted in a large uptick in support for the ruling Social Democratic government as measured by [voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) [polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/), headed by Mette Frederiksen. However, the support has been dwindling in the last couple months. The next election will be held on or by 4 June 2023, as Denmark practices a 4 year maximum period between elections.", "resolution_criteria": "If the next government following elections include the Social Democrats, this resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. (Specifically, this will resolve negatively in the case where the Social Democrats provide support for a government but do not have any ministers in the government", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10430, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678360517.370664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678360517.370664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8539501485235118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06627670137989172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06898336077310675, 0.5086136644727008, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17748291552827444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1493205290095774, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9115446079079361, 1.851832674540093, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 1.3469409297864898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 1.1442958305145994 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.7904137956056897, "coverage": 0.6027165938923651, "baseline_score": 26.05614540904235, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.7904137956056897, "baseline_archived_score": 26.05614540904235, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671090495.726642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671090495.726642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1321094297881268, 0.8678905702118732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections were held in Denmark on 5 June 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Danish_general_election):\n\n>The elections resulted in a victory for the \"red bloc\", comprising parties that supported the Social Democrats' leader Mette Frederiksen as candidate for Prime Minister. The \"red bloc\", consisting of the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, Socialist People's Party, the Red–Green Alliance, the Faroese Social Democratic Party and the Greenlandic Siumut,[5] won 93 of the 179 seats, securing a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the incumbent governing coalition, consisting of Venstre, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservative People's Party whilst receiving parliamentary support from the Danish People's Party and Nunatta Qitornai, was reduced to 76 seats (including the Venstre-affiliated Union Party in the Faroe Islands).\n\nThe Coronavirus situation resulted in a large uptick in support for the ruling Social Democratic government as measured by [voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) [polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/), headed by Mette Frederiksen. However, the support has been dwindling in the last couple months. The next election will be held on or by 4 June 2023, as Denmark practices a 4 year maximum period between elections." }, { "id": 10429, "title": "Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?", "short_title": "Brazil Net Zero Deforestation by 2031", "url_title": "Brazil Net Zero Deforestation by 2031", "slug": "brazil-net-zero-deforestation-by-2031", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-23T22:00:07.298214Z", "published_at": "2022-03-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.150112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10429, "title": "Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?", "created_at": "2022-03-23T22:00:07.298214Z", "open_time": "2022-03-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated [3.1 million square km](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/) were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the [PRODES survey](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) on the amount of annual deforestation in [Amazônia Legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaz%C3%B4nia_Legal), the nine Brazillian states which contain the Brazillian Amazon Forest. Deforestation in the Amazon fell from 27,700 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2004 to 4,500 km\\(^{2}\\), and has since risen under the [Jair Bolsonaro Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro).\n\nBrazil also contains the [Atlantic Forest](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/), 92% of which was [estimated to be within Brazil](awsassets.panda.org/downloads/documento_fvs_baja.pdf) in 2017. While an estimated 17% of the Amazon has been deforested since European contact, [92%](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/) of the Atlantic Forest has been deforested, from 1,300,000 km\\(^{2}\\) to 100,000 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2020.\n\nIn 2008, delegates from Brazil joined 66 other countries in pledging support for the World Wide Fund for Nature's goal to reach net zero deforestation by 2020. In April 2021, [Bolsonaro pledged](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-must-cut-deforestation-15-20-year-reach-2030-goal-says-vice-president-2021-04-16/) to US President Joe Biden to cut illegal deforestation and reach net zero deforestation by 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" If primary forest area in Brazil has a net increase in any year from 2020 to 2031. Estimates should include data in the Amazon Rainforest and the Atlantic Forest in total for the same year. Estimates may come from Brazil's [National Institute for Space Research](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) (INPE), or another credible source if INPE data is not available. This question will resolve according to data available by March 1, 2033", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10429, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763596889.715394, "end_time": 1764257273.131414, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763596889.715394, "end_time": 1764257273.131414, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18029824603814143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9789199213112474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.3825759951002, 1.3252680635764325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 1.718561998187758, 0.822725803105071, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15814364833231526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289076.762727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289076.762727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9309230449891344, 0.06907695501086568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated [3.1 million square km](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/) were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the [PRODES survey](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) on the amount of annual deforestation in [Amazônia Legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaz%C3%B4nia_Legal), the nine Brazillian states which contain the Brazillian Amazon Forest. Deforestation in the Amazon fell from 27,700 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2004 to 4,500 km\\(^{2}\\), and has since risen under the [Jair Bolsonaro Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro).\n\nBrazil also contains the [Atlantic Forest](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/), 92% of which was [estimated to be within Brazil](awsassets.panda.org/downloads/documento_fvs_baja.pdf) in 2017. While an estimated 17% of the Amazon has been deforested since European contact, [92%](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/) of the Atlantic Forest has been deforested, from 1,300,000 km\\(^{2}\\) to 100,000 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2020.\n\nIn 2008, delegates from Brazil joined 66 other countries in pledging support for the World Wide Fund for Nature's goal to reach net zero deforestation by 2020. In April 2021, [Bolsonaro pledged](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-must-cut-deforestation-15-20-year-reach-2030-goal-says-vice-president-2021-04-16/) to US President Joe Biden to cut illegal deforestation and reach net zero deforestation by 2030." }, { "id": 10426, "title": "Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?", "short_title": "Mochizuki Retracts Proof of abc conjecture", "url_title": "Mochizuki Retracts Proof of abc conjecture", "slug": "mochizuki-retracts-proof-of-abc-conjecture", "author_id": 116023, "author_username": "ege_erdil", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-23T20:00:18.536745Z", "published_at": "2022-03-27T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.119462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-27T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-27T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10426, "title": "Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-03-23T20:00:18.536745Z", "open_time": "2022-03-27T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \\( \\varepsilon > 0 \\), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \\( a + b = c \\) with \\( a, b \\) coprime such that\n\n\\[ c > \\textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \\varepsilon} \\]\n\nIn 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.\n\nIn March 2021 his proof was published in the *Publications of the Research Institute for Mathematical Sciences* (RIMS), a journal of which Mochizuki was the chief editor (though he recused himself from reviewing the paper).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Mochizuki either formally retracts his paper from RIMS or otherwise makes a clear and explicit statement that he no longer believes his proof to be correct. If Mochizuki doesn't take any such action before January 1, 2050, the question will resolve as \"No\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10426, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722538826.225081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.123 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722538826.225081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.123 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.877, 0.123 ], "means": [ 0.12292092903654733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.8929389982591724, 0.48167841893631047, 0.4493399967634437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0292811289737245, 0.0, 1.0310506370160097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46312022972280087, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \\( \\varepsilon > 0 \\), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \\( a + b = c \\) with \\( a, b \\) coprime such that\n\n\\[ c > \\textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \\varepsilon} \\]\n\nIn 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.\n\nIn March 2021 his proof was published in the *Publications of the Research Institute for Mathematical Sciences* (RIMS), a journal of which Mochizuki was the chief editor (though he recused himself from reviewing the paper)." }, { "id": 10424, "title": "Is the abc conjecture true?", "short_title": "Truth of the abc conjecture", "url_title": "Truth of the abc conjecture", 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"2022-03-23T19:38:45.145140Z", "open_time": "2022-03-26T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2299-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2041-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2041-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \\( \\varepsilon > 0 \\), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \\( a + b = c \\) with \\( a, b \\) coprime such that\n\n\\[ c > \\textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \\varepsilon} \\]\n\nIn 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the abc conjecture, and \"No\" in the event of a similar publication disproving the conjecture.\n\nIf the correctness of the proof given in the publication takes time to be recognized by the mathematics community, the question will resolve when Metaculus admins judge that the proof has gained sufficient 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict.\n\nIn March 2022, [Ukranian officials accused Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-russian-aircraft-fired-belarus-ukrainian-air-space-2022-03-11/) of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, [Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said](https://www.reuters.com/world/belarusian-forces-will-not-take-part-ukraine-war-lukashenko-says-2022-03-04/) the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.\n\n[Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya), who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to [Fox News on March 23, 2022](https://www.foxnews.com/world/belarus-invasion-ukraine-russias-behalf), saying \"We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" If, at any time between February 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022, either any 2 [Permanent members of the UN security council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) or official representatives of Russia or Belarus officially state that Belarussian armed forces have invaded Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, \"Ukranian territory\" will be defined as Ukraine's internationally recognized borders [as of January 1, 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine). The declaration of a Belarussian invasion must be referring at least in part to events which occurred between February 1, 2022 to June 1, 2022.\n\nIf no such declaration occurs by June 1, 2022, 00:00 UTC, this question will resolve as \"No\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10423, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654006619.927856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654006619.927856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015712244435384177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 33.8050368232417, 3.8038540376827634, 1.1102678394334922, 0.0420492481556151, 0.3860305890128649, 0.060868344002408016, 0.0009039467276623827, 0.008334411413690785, 0.0008154435134660876, 0.005582952681374891, 0.021661069339441993, 0.015736050263456425, 1.9697029656360255e-05, 6.409359953425328e-07, 0.00853008861495612, 1.217012998207537e-06, 0.0031494120573475116, 0.04392189617387923, 0.005857454589139575, 0.6951953609695376, 0.0027815322645929823, 0.00025613752181156854, 2.318243492714108e-06, 8.256617600175964e-05, 0.001004998674579571, 0.0010037670743953465, 1.3048311127278882e-06, 3.9024124111195675e-06, 0.0, 8.044100546424062e-05, 0.0, 8.434051039356278e-08, 7.1187086879232835e-09, 1.1158662339340783e-08, 1.3592834070147654e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6188265739755086e-09, 3.077885597934738e-08, 5.997898409131283e-06, 0.0, 4.5846583454263095e-05, 5.44543232894688e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.632629336367782e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2287640221770168e-07, 1.0491411937199713e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.418887170859365e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.055262139915056, "coverage": 0.9998831144624127, "baseline_score": 88.65680496903451, "spot_peer_score": 6.956738415695773, "peer_archived_score": 9.055262139915056, "baseline_archived_score": 88.65680496903451, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.956738415695773 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1654006620.096192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1654006620.096192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1324, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Belarus, ally of Russia, has allowed Russian troops in Belarussian territory to conduct operations on the Ukranian border, but Belarus has not yet deployed its own forces in the conflict.\n\nIn March 2022, [Ukranian officials accused Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-says-russian-aircraft-fired-belarus-ukrainian-air-space-2022-03-11/) of firing on Belarus from Ukranian territory to create a pretext for a Belarussian invasion. On March 4, [Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko said](https://www.reuters.com/world/belarusian-forces-will-not-take-part-ukraine-war-lukashenko-says-2022-03-04/) the Belarusian armed forces were not taking part and would not take part in Russia's military operation in Ukraine.\n\n[Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatlana_Tsikhanouskaya), who ran in an election opposing Lukashenko in 2020, spoke to [Fox News on March 23, 2022](https://www.foxnews.com/world/belarus-invasion-ukraine-russias-behalf), saying \"We are receiving information about a possible invasion of Ukraine by the forces of Belarus\"." }, { "id": 10409, "title": "Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?", "short_title": "Total Nuclear Disarmament before 2075", "url_title": "Total Nuclear Disarmament before 2075", "slug": "total-nuclear-disarmament-before-2075", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10409, "title": "Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?", "created_at": "2022-03-22T19:34:52.428420Z", "open_time": "2022-03-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-27T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-27T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-01-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-02T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/) [closed]\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/)\n\n* [Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/)\n\n----\n\nAs of March 2022, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are \"roughly 12,700 nuclear warheads\" deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 2,000 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-warhead-stockpiles\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2075, there are no known nuclear warheads on Earth or within geosynchrous orbit of Earth for any length of time. Such an assesment should state that no assembled nuclear warheads exist, whether deployed or stockpiled (but it may allow for the existence of sufficient material or resources to quickly assemble such warheads). Metaculus may consider all credible sources to determine whether no nuclear warheads exist.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are fewer than 10 million biological humans alive on Earth, or if more than 500 nuclear warheads have been detonated in a 10-year period. (In other words, this question will exclude scenarios where there are no nuclear weapons left--because they were all detonated)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759244156.193935, "end_time": 1767582150.025836, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759244156.193935, "end_time": 1767582150.025836, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.985, 0.015 ], "means": [ 0.05735390777658444 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6489165252507574, 4.242706437256621, 0.1494220410952148, 0.021542612258663517, 0.01831563888873418, 0.749399594053549, 0.5089300594347316, 0.5949610715209219, 1.0, 0.0, 0.948019787845537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12233152344487716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13613871759178028, 0.0, 0.21810592821876404, 0.338266843588547, 0.4336203067551109, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008531995357508187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288390.447543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288390.447543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.991130502116518, 0.008869497883482038 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 140, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/) [closed]\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/)\n\n* [Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/)\n\n----\n\nAs of March 2022, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are \"roughly 12,700 nuclear warheads\" deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 2,000 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/nuclear-warhead-stockpiles\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory)." }, { "id": 10393, "title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?", "short_title": "If WW3 before 2060, will US and India ally?", "url_title": "If WW3 before 2060, will US and India ally?", "slug": "if-ww3-before-2060-will-us-and-india-ally", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-22T07:26:35.096297Z", "published_at": "2022-03-25T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:28:18.467814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-25T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-05-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-25T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10393, "title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?", "created_at": "2022-03-22T07:26:35.096297Z", "open_time": "2022-03-25T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-27T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-27T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-05-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2052-05-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760513436.509596, "end_time": 1772411185.241434, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7516793013 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760513436.509596, "end_time": 1772411185.241434, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7516793013 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6689938231346072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5983201576784314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09249024938796033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6956811236098437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.26540318263127977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004800587348436423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6621213963611227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421425, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.3722069427882975, 0.0, 1.0267051406025145, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 1.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24837344435549308, 0.21671204715986886, 1.1537930072819154, 0.0, 1.6730796881552426, 1.4228509568116896, 0.16871148880955214, 0.0591057465619562, 0.4038734030575686, 0.06639265352365246, 0.04084036021151628, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5398959925756218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2893506753269389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0440262350307066 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287977.514459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287977.514459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3377066246561685, 0.6622933753438315 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?" }, { "id": 10359, "title": "Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?", "short_title": "Turkish Inflation Under 4% by 2025", "url_title": "Turkish Inflation Under 4% by 2025", "slug": "turkish-inflation-under-4-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-21T01:10:40.976197Z", "published_at": "2022-03-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.226522Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T11:19:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1693, "type": "question_series", "name": "Autocrat Public Figures Series", "slug": "autocrat-series", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/autocrat_bTXVPgq.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T00:01:40.549026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10359, "title": "Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-03-21T01:10:40.976197Z", "open_time": "2022-03-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-25T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T11:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T11:20:12.522504Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10358/turkish-annual-inflation-2022-to-2024/)\n\n----\n\nTurkey has been in a significant [debt and inflation crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis) since 2018. This has been partially attributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's belief that [lowering interest rates boosts economic growth](https://apnews.com/article/business-middle-east-europe-prices-inflation-d462a5d85364a50f159fa620287b9f21) and reduces inflation, whereas most nation's central banks follow the opposite strategy of raising interest rates to fight inflation. The value of the Turkish Lira against the USD has [fallen by 28%](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD) from November 2021 to February 2022. Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati [said in March 2022,](https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/turkeys-finance-minister-says-the-rise-in-energy-prices-is-accelerating-inflation-1.86573615) \"What we have seen in recent months is that the exchange rate is stable and moves forward within acceptable limits\".\n\nInflation in Turkey has been above 10% since November 2019, and reached 54% in February 2022. President Erdogan [said in December 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-says-he-lowered-inflation-4-before-will-do-it-again-soon-2021-12-19/), \"Sooner or later, just as we lowered inflation all the way to 4% when I came to power, we will lower it again. But, I will not let my citizens, my people, be crushed under interest rates\". Annual Inflation did drop to 4.0% in March 2011, however the average inflation that year was 6.5%. The IMF's [October 2021 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October/weo-report?c=186,&s=PCPIPCH,&sy=2019&ey=2026&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1) survey expects inflation to remain high, averaging at 13.55% from 2022 to 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Turkey's annual inflation is under 4.0% for any month from January 2022 to December 2024 (inclusive), according to the [Turkish Statistical Institute](https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=enflasyon-ve-fiyat-106&dil=2) (TurkStat). For comparison, the lowest annual inflation from 2018 to 2020 (inclusive) is 8.55% on October 2019 according to [TurkStat](https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/DownloadIstatistikselTablo?p=KMExlm5AVU2ln21dc2evQ2SnPKPmGEBqV6H8CcJSjNNBzZZT2CJNzYtIqx1WGQK8).\n\nTo resolve the question positively, any qualifying month published by TurkStat will be considered official 6 months after publication, to account for any revisions or corrections. If TurkStat's data is incomplete, unavailable, or known to be innacurate, Metaculus Admins may choose another credible source, at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750787430.021871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750787430.021871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.14496688991959297 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.946580774135873, 4.37058481065409, 0.4665171894522451, 0.7103461841296702, 0.01450099819391426, 0.125648904608466, 0.11629718722993893, 0.19116657891986732, 0.052577289157086836, 0.013737661309755848, 0.07566674416117768, 0.014358311246418655, 0.009402760779485559, 0.0, 0.010028489695676875, 0.02774856510779243, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05739703566227289, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.963348862341069, 0.5827089072721569, 0.0, 0.4827205360804419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033167896481265315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3980492573482718, 0.4247058044294796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5142368439049506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7440095530395536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.872998887901, "peer_score": 5.836271504346169, "coverage": 0.9999289952362729, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999289952362729, "spot_peer_score": -1.9239545235594893, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 88.872998887901, "peer_archived_score": 5.836271504346169, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9239545235594893, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288854.600813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288854.600813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 235, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10358/turkish-annual-inflation-2022-to-2024/)\n\n----\n\nTurkey has been in a significant [debt and inflation crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis) since 2018. This has been partially attributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's belief that [lowering interest rates boosts economic growth](https://apnews.com/article/business-middle-east-europe-prices-inflation-d462a5d85364a50f159fa620287b9f21) and reduces inflation, whereas most nation's central banks follow the opposite strategy of raising interest rates to fight inflation. The value of the Turkish Lira against the USD has [fallen by 28%](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD) from November 2021 to February 2022. Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati [said in March 2022,](https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/turkeys-finance-minister-says-the-rise-in-energy-prices-is-accelerating-inflation-1.86573615) \"What we have seen in recent months is that the exchange rate is stable and moves forward within acceptable limits\".\n\nInflation in Turkey has been above 10% since November 2019, and reached 54% in February 2022. President Erdogan [said in December 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-says-he-lowered-inflation-4-before-will-do-it-again-soon-2021-12-19/), \"Sooner or later, just as we lowered inflation all the way to 4% when I came to power, we will lower it again. But, I will not let my citizens, my people, be crushed under interest rates\". Annual Inflation did drop to 4.0% in March 2011, however the average inflation that year was 6.5%. The IMF's [October 2021 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October/weo-report?c=186,&s=PCPIPCH,&sy=2019&ey=2026&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1) survey expects inflation to remain high, averaging at 13.55% from 2022 to 2024." }, { "id": 10325, "title": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?", "short_title": "ICJ rules Russia must pay Ukraine reparations", "url_title": "ICJ rules Russia must pay Ukraine reparations", "slug": "icj-rules-russia-must-pay-ukraine-reparations", "author_id": 117706, "author_username": "benjsmith", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-17T19:45:45.020565Z", "published_at": "2023-09-27T19:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T08:02:48.880398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-27T19:25:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-27T19:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10325, "title": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?", "created_at": "2022-03-17T19:45:45.020565Z", "open_time": "2023-09-27T19:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-29T19:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-29T19:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.", "fine_print": "A settlement between the countries outside of the ICJ in which Russia agrees to pay reparations would not result in a positive resolution of this forecast.", "post_id": 10325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760482862.536411, "end_time": 1767075817.0641, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760482862.536411, "end_time": 1767075817.0641, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6213942288659243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8891698798959071, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.5966385346030553, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5508431138116239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2965119943566896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.7955602386274315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3185555210883373 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289824.223357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289824.223357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40301203767305027, 0.5969879623269497 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo." }, { "id": 10306, "title": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?", "short_title": "Russia Cuts Underwater Internet Cable 2023", "url_title": "Russia Cuts Underwater Internet Cable 2023", "slug": "russia-cuts-underwater-internet-cable-2023", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-16T23:27:12.890978Z", "published_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.385832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10306, "title": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-03-16T23:27:12.890978Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T01:32:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T01:32:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T13:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Justin Sherman from the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/) writes:\n\n> \"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable.\"\n\n> \"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine.\"\n\nBut adds later the potential for even more globally damaging scenarios should the conflict spread outside of Ukraine.\n\n> \"In the most globally damaging scenario, the Russian military could target any of the dozens of submarine cables linking other parts of Europe to the global internet—and which, by extension, may carry traffic originating in (and destined for) Ukraine. For instance, there are sixteen submarine cables touching Ireland, and cutting some of those cables—a couple of which are in the vicinity of the Russian exercis would damage the flow of global internet traffic and could take several hours or even days to repair. It could also considerably distract those countries from other world events.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, any part of an underwater internet cable is reported to have been cut, or purposefully damaged, by either Russian-based actors or the Russian military by at least 3 reputable sources. \n\nAny means of cutting or damaging will be accepted as long as some or all of the cables within the main cable are not functional.\n\nThe damage must be attributable to Russia or Russian-based actors. Reports that say \"could be\" or \"may be Russian\" will not count toward resolution.\n\nA useful source for seeing all the current underwater internet cables can be found [here](https://www.submarinecablemap.com/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672473645.610368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.024678102591989163 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672473645.610368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.024678102591989163 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04653940331988007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.609625881676429, 2.069641424525309, 0.7194707411332477, 0.13228844723226404, 0.21843452165385918, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.25912121864935145, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6661393001189296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10558761152455193, 0.0, 0.39154947645024496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0780945946412779, 0.15062225698690318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.213179318212678, "coverage": 0.9996403382772336, "baseline_score": 90.28279170845258, "spot_peer_score": 11.757589599585929, "peer_archived_score": 11.213179318212678, "baseline_archived_score": 90.28279170845258, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.757589599585929 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672473645.630629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672473645.630629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Justin Sherman from the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/) writes:\n\n> \"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable.\"\n\n> \"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine.\"\n\nBut adds later the potential for even more globally damaging scenarios should the conflict spread outside of Ukraine.\n\n> \"In the most globally damaging scenario, the Russian military could target any of the dozens of submarine cables linking other parts of Europe to the global internet—and which, by extension, may carry traffic originating in (and destined for) Ukraine. For instance, there are sixteen submarine cables touching Ireland, and cutting some of those cables—a couple of which are in the vicinity of the Russian exercis would damage the flow of global internet traffic and could take several hours or even days to repair. It could also considerably distract those countries from other world events.\"" } ] }
