Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4260
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4240", "results": [ { "id": 10305, "title": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?", "short_title": "Russia Cuts Kerch Strait Cable before 2023", "url_title": "Russia Cuts Kerch Strait Cable before 2023", "slug": "russia-cuts-kerch-strait-cable-before-2023", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-16T23:21:05.201500Z", "published_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.892056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10305, "title": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-03-16T23:21:05.201500Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T01:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T01:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:20:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Justin Sherman from the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/) writes:\n\n> \"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable.\"\n\n> \"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2023, any part of the Kerch Strait Cable is reported to have been cut or purposefully damaged by Russian-based actors or the Russian military by at least 3 reputable sources. \n\nAny means of cutting or damaging will be accepted as long as some or all of the cables within the main cable are not functional.\n\nThe damage must be attributable to Russia or Russian-based actors. Reports that say \"could be\" or \"may be Russian\" will not count toward resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10305, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672510456.476337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672510456.476337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021505274264745973 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.078547825170013, 1.6318216541023043, 0.11603526608603787, 0.2571372947429249, 0.09610324492417732, 0.14365297647072853, 0.1597789383234639, 0.0, 0.00794347581595996, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.03765291086588121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.007730636177887338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021786738318048823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08709201066508168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.849021376615783, "coverage": 0.9999818295581856, "baseline_score": 92.07390515069767, "spot_peer_score": 13.472731070339863, "peer_archived_score": 9.849021376615783, "baseline_archived_score": 92.07390515069767, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.472731070339863 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672510456.500017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672510456.500017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Justin Sherman from the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/cord-cutting-russian-style-could-the-kremlin-sever-global-internet-cables/) writes:\n\n> \"In the current crisis, observers should watch the one submarine cable that carries global internet traffic directly into Ukraine: the Kerch Strait Cable, laid in 2014 by Rostelecom, the Russian state-owned telecommunications company. After the annexation, Crimean internet service providers (ISPs) began using the cable to route internet traffic through Russia. Because the most immediate impact of cutting it would be to internet communications in Crimea itself, the Kremlin may be less likely to damage this cable.\"\n\n> \"Yet if the standoff over Ukraine intensifies, the Kremlin might calculate that such a move is worth the risk if it could be combined with other actions to disrupt internet communications in the rest of the country, too. In that scenario, Russian military and intelligence assets in Crimea could have their internet access disrupted (which would perhaps give Ukraine a reason to target that infrastructure). But at the same time, targeting the cable while targeting other infrastructure outside Crimea could create panic in the rest of Ukraine and limit the international community’s visibility into further Russian actions—well in line with the Kremlin’s willingness to accept some costs to invade and forcibly exert control over Ukraine.\"" }, { "id": 10295, "title": "Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "short_title": "Turkish Sanctions on Russia before 2024", "url_title": "Turkish Sanctions on Russia before 2024", "slug": "turkish-sanctions-on-russia-before-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:41:59.246911Z", "published_at": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.069668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10295, "title": "Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:41:59.246911Z", "open_time": "2022-03-25T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in [efforts to mediate](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/10/top-russia-ukraine-diplomats-arrive-in-turkey-for-talks) the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a [rapprochement](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkey-israel-to-weigh-in-on-deepening-cooperation-amid-rapprochement) with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has [been selling](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/11/turkey-drones-use-ukraine) [drones](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/turkish-drones-are-transforming-the-war-in-ukraine) to Ukraine since 2019 and has recently agreed to [co-produce the drones with Ukraine](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/04/turkey-and-ukraine-to-coproduce-tb2-drones/). Turkey claims that [this is a private sale](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-balancing-russia-ties-says-drones-ukraine-are-sales-not-aid-sabah-2022-03-03/), though the Turkish defense company Baykar which makes the drones is led by Selcuk Bayraktar, an [MIT-educated engineer who is married to the daughter of Turkish President Erdogan](https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-7928-4b4e-a4c5-b2f50747d1f6). Turkish drones played a [crucial role](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkey-drones-libya-nagorno-karabakh/2020/11/29/d8c98b96-29de-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html) in the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.\n Turkey has said that it has [no intention](https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkey-has-no-intention-of-joining-sanctions-against-russia) of joining the sanctions against Russia. Several yachts linked to Russian oligarch [Roman Abramovich](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-702025) have docked in Turkey. Turkey has a [complicated](https://www.businessinsider.com/turkey-growing-ties-with-russia-have-caused-problem-for-nato-2022-1) relationship with Russia. In the Syrian Civil War, Turkey was a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition, while Russia backed the Assad regime. \n Furthermore, despite Turkey being a NATO member, it has a [complicated](https://www.cfr.org/report/future-u.s.-turkey) [relationship](https://warontherocks.com/2020/11/turkeys-crisis-with-the-west-how-a-new-low-in-relations-risks-paralyzing-nato/) with the US and with NATO, which was the subject of a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, the Turkish government officially imposes [international sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions) against Russia.\n\nTariffs will be considered sanctions", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076234.878397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076234.878397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01456194363607487 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.198678537685458, 5.9154085933765295, 0.33945350881194025, 0.18892918896318858, 0.15240336644476848, 0.3376779513704642, 0.16194681419417345, 0.1221029046084698, 0.02721846152446844, 0.18869499907134732, 0.21215966810694, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020217500590815778, 0.0, 0.01511596887907778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005461249750544722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2557444877755295, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.005955012740729763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012987148739696423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001247541902620542, 0.0, 0.003913855921625951, 0.007837324216462879, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005894197584814864, 0.0, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006116391588802215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012630607718125297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.330231631938238, "coverage": 0.9993035965853041, "baseline_score": 63.37959159837533, "spot_peer_score": 6.01520030927117, "peer_archived_score": 7.330231631938238, "baseline_archived_score": 63.37959159837533, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.01520030927117 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703749606.297624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703749606.297624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Turkey, a NATO member, has been involved in [efforts to mediate](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/10/top-russia-ukraine-diplomats-arrive-in-turkey-for-talks) the war between Ukraine and Russia and has recently had a [rapprochement](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkey-israel-to-weigh-in-on-deepening-cooperation-amid-rapprochement) with Israel, who is also involved in the mediation efforts. Turkey has [been selling](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/11/turkey-drones-use-ukraine) [drones](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/turkish-drones-are-transforming-the-war-in-ukraine) to Ukraine since 2019 and has recently agreed to [co-produce the drones with Ukraine](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/02/04/turkey-and-ukraine-to-coproduce-tb2-drones/). Turkey claims that [this is a private sale](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-balancing-russia-ties-says-drones-ukraine-are-sales-not-aid-sabah-2022-03-03/), though the Turkish defense company Baykar which makes the drones is led by Selcuk Bayraktar, an [MIT-educated engineer who is married to the daughter of Turkish President Erdogan](https://www.ft.com/content/7529a862-7928-4b4e-a4c5-b2f50747d1f6). Turkish drones played a [crucial role](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkey-drones-libya-nagorno-karabakh/2020/11/29/d8c98b96-29de-11eb-9c21-3cc501d0981f_story.html) in the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.\n Turkey has said that it has [no intention](https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkey-has-no-intention-of-joining-sanctions-against-russia) of joining the sanctions against Russia. Several yachts linked to Russian oligarch [Roman Abramovich](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-702025) have docked in Turkey. Turkey has a [complicated](https://www.businessinsider.com/turkey-growing-ties-with-russia-have-caused-problem-for-nato-2022-1) relationship with Russia. In the Syrian Civil War, Turkey was a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition, while Russia backed the Assad regime. \n Furthermore, despite Turkey being a NATO member, it has a [complicated](https://www.cfr.org/report/future-u.s.-turkey) [relationship](https://warontherocks.com/2020/11/turkeys-crisis-with-the-west-how-a-new-low-in-relations-risks-paralyzing-nato/) with the US and with NATO, which was the subject of a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/)." }, { "id": 10294, "title": "Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "short_title": "Israeli Sanctions on Russia before 2024", "url_title": "Israeli Sanctions on Russia before 2024", "slug": "israeli-sanctions-on-russia-before-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:30:02.086622Z", "published_at": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.839647Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10294, "title": "Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:30:02.086622Z", "open_time": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-30T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel, a [close US ally](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701406), has [given humanitarian aid to](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-foreign-ministry-to-boost-aid-to-ukraine-including-generators-for-hospital/) and has [established a field hospital](https://israelpolicyforum.org/2022/03/10/zelenskys-appeal-to-jewish-solidarity-must-overcome-one-big-obstacle/) in Ukraine. It has [accepted some Ukrainian refugees](https://www.timesofisrael.com/facing-bitter-criticism-israel-eases-limits-on-entry-of-ukrainian-refugees/) and [voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/at-us-request-israel-said-to-help-convince-uae-to-back-un-resolution-condemning-russia/). Israel [condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/the-false-narrative-of-israeli-neutrality-in-russias-ukraine-invasion/), but the [rhetoric has not been as strong and consistent](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/israel-reluctantly-condemns-russia-over-ukraine) as that from the US and many European states. Ukraine [have complained](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701022) that Israel has not sent military aid to Ukraine, or joined the sanctions against Russia, though that has [started to change](https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1503316397773971463). Israel [is mediating between Russia and Ukraine](https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-launches-effort-to-mediate-between-russia-ukraine/6478435.html) and maintains relations with both parties. Ukraine [has praised](https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-chief-of-staff-lauds-israels-brave-mediation-efforts-new-refugee-rules/) these mediation efforts, in which Israel is a [key mediator](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/bennett-key-mediator-in-ukraine-russia-talks-report-says-1.10680094). However, some critics that have alleged that the Israeli mediation efforts are not the reason for Israel's lack of military aid, but rather its [fear of Russia](https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-envoy-israel-is-afraid-of-russia-and-should-drop-neutral-position/), with which it has a [deconfliction mechanism](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-699108) in Syria. A majority of Israelis [support Ukraine](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-699374). There has been a [report](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-likely-to-shift-to-more-pro-ukraine-stance-as-russian-invasion-escalates/) that if situation continues to escalate, Israel will support Ukraine more openly. \n\nWith respect to sanctions, Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has said that Israel will not be [used to bypass sanctions](https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-will-not-be-route-bypass-sanctions-imposed-russia-foreign-minister-2022-03-14/) but Israel is not focused on [imposing sanctions](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-not-about-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia-or-oligarchs-officials-say/). Russian-Israeli oligarch Roman Abramovich's plane [was not allowed to be on the ground in Israel more than 24 hours](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701230). Israel [has not formally joined](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700768) the sanctions against Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2024, the Israeli government officially imposes [international sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions) against Russia.\n\nTariffs will be considered sanctions", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075893.558977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075893.558977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019746151877793938 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.31139463233699, 10.078853733948044, 0.0792956155828547, 0.08414282671127693, 0.6314266764128531, 0.5064938583340091, 0.3132488452731189, 0.04629190381206807, 0.0, 0.008738881583993479, 0.3285331551145585, 0.0037282364174326984, 0.25422968682009206, 0.07116481227710209, 0.0, 0.0830491990623725, 0.04220480161784912, 0.0, 0.04322177324417079, 0.0, 0.05180966480446727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.9359747798397504e-05, 0.03875102120169374, 0.0, 0.17936431527968769, 0.01037967139288779, 0.0, 0.0014572408198787214, 2.7476987400024068e-05, 0.0, 0.000246654027485947, 0.007325636103266624, 0.003016598195143035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008592652915167998, 0.12207024717907002, 0.0, 0.00015781333812073971, 0.002557502277071915, 0.0033029296617571183, 0.0027405361739500315, 0.0, 0.002478019801930304, 0.00028168591029385803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003212175490120801, 0.0, 0.0002458413835405365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005967857641638015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003443119836427492, 0.001326949386462604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009693832712342202 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.944282135202496, "coverage": 0.9995398326134196, "baseline_score": 46.653343246802784, "spot_peer_score": -7.392613101978966, "peer_archived_score": 10.944282135202496, "baseline_archived_score": 46.653343246802784, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.392613101978966 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703922234.960176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703922234.960176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 486, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel, a [close US ally](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701406), has [given humanitarian aid to](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-foreign-ministry-to-boost-aid-to-ukraine-including-generators-for-hospital/) and has [established a field hospital](https://israelpolicyforum.org/2022/03/10/zelenskys-appeal-to-jewish-solidarity-must-overcome-one-big-obstacle/) in Ukraine. It has [accepted some Ukrainian refugees](https://www.timesofisrael.com/facing-bitter-criticism-israel-eases-limits-on-entry-of-ukrainian-refugees/) and [voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/at-us-request-israel-said-to-help-convince-uae-to-back-un-resolution-condemning-russia/). Israel [condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/the-false-narrative-of-israeli-neutrality-in-russias-ukraine-invasion/), but the [rhetoric has not been as strong and consistent](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/israel-reluctantly-condemns-russia-over-ukraine) as that from the US and many European states. Ukraine [have complained](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701022) that Israel has not sent military aid to Ukraine, or joined the sanctions against Russia, though that has [started to change](https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1503316397773971463). Israel [is mediating between Russia and Ukraine](https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-launches-effort-to-mediate-between-russia-ukraine/6478435.html) and maintains relations with both parties. Ukraine [has praised](https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-chief-of-staff-lauds-israels-brave-mediation-efforts-new-refugee-rules/) these mediation efforts, in which Israel is a [key mediator](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/bennett-key-mediator-in-ukraine-russia-talks-report-says-1.10680094). However, some critics that have alleged that the Israeli mediation efforts are not the reason for Israel's lack of military aid, but rather its [fear of Russia](https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-envoy-israel-is-afraid-of-russia-and-should-drop-neutral-position/), with which it has a [deconfliction mechanism](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-699108) in Syria. A majority of Israelis [support Ukraine](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-699374). There has been a [report](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-likely-to-shift-to-more-pro-ukraine-stance-as-russian-invasion-escalates/) that if situation continues to escalate, Israel will support Ukraine more openly. \n\nWith respect to sanctions, Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has said that Israel will not be [used to bypass sanctions](https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-will-not-be-route-bypass-sanctions-imposed-russia-foreign-minister-2022-03-14/) but Israel is not focused on [imposing sanctions](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-not-about-to-impose-sanctions-on-russia-or-oligarchs-officials-say/). Russian-Israeli oligarch Roman Abramovich's plane [was not allowed to be on the ground in Israel more than 24 hours](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701230). Israel [has not formally joined](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-700768) the sanctions against Russia." }, { "id": 10293, "title": "Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Arms Ukraine before 2024", "url_title": "Israel Arms Ukraine before 2024", "slug": "israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:23:44.886892Z", "published_at": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.430040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 113, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-17T10:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-17T10:15:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10293, "title": "Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-16T18:23:44.886892Z", "open_time": "2022-03-29T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-31T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-17T10:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-17T10:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-17T10:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel, a [close US ally](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701406), has [given humanitarian aid to](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-foreign-ministry-to-boost-aid-to-ukraine-including-generators-for-hospital/) and has [established a field hospital](https://israelpolicyforum.org/2022/03/10/zelenskys-appeal-to-jewish-solidarity-must-overcome-one-big-obstacle/) in Ukraine. It has [accepted some Ukrainian refugees](https://www.timesofisrael.com/facing-bitter-criticism-israel-eases-limits-on-entry-of-ukrainian-refugees/) and [voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/at-us-request-israel-said-to-help-convince-uae-to-back-un-resolution-condemning-russia/). Israel [condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/the-false-narrative-of-israeli-neutrality-in-russias-ukraine-invasion/), but the [rhetoric has not been as strong and consistent](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/israel-reluctantly-condemns-russia-over-ukraine) as that from the US and many European states. Ukraine [has complained](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701022) that Israel has not sent military aid to Ukraine, or joined the sanctions against Russia, though that has [started to change](https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1503316397773971463). Israel [is mediating between Russia and Ukraine](https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-launches-effort-to-mediate-between-russia-ukraine/6478435.html) and maintains relations with both parties. Ukraine [has praised](https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-chief-of-staff-lauds-israels-brave-mediation-efforts-new-refugee-rules/) these mediation efforts, in which Israel is a [key mediator](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/bennett-key-mediator-in-ukraine-russia-talks-report-says-1.10680094). However, some critics that have alleged that the Israeli mediation efforts are not the reason for Israel's lack of military aid, but rather its [fear of Russia](https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-envoy-israel-is-afraid-of-russia-and-should-drop-neutral-position/), with which it has a [deconfliction mechanism](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-699108) in Syria. American officials including Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of Israel, have [criticized Israel](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy/1646303501-us-officials-call-on-israel-to-take-harder-stance-on-ukraine-war), with Graham specifically protesting Israel's refusal to sell Stinger missiles to Ukraine. A majority of Israelis [support Ukraine](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-699374). There has been a [report](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-likely-to-shift-to-more-pro-ukraine-stance-as-russian-invasion-escalates/) that if the situation continues to escalate, Israel will support Ukraine more openly. Israeli military experts [have expressed openness](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-should-israel-arm-ukraine-israeli-generals-speak-out-1.10678157) to sending Ukraine helmets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if reliable media reports indicate that Israel sent military equipment to Ukraine after February 24, 2022, and before January 1, 2024. An Israeli company or any other entity sending arms to Ukraine will be enough to trigger resolution if the transaction requires the permission of the Israeli government. Otherwise, This question will resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671174589.493523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.8015298181462279 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671174589.493523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.8015298181462279 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19847018185377208, 0.8015298181462279 ], "means": [ 0.7566183950145777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00072724535458014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5688025670148258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3431363112646853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04518841664853774, 0.18609674590484643, 0.0, 0.021135172691445086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.290889716182305e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0724880833281916, 0.0, 2.2803932918607588e-05, 2.887571686463189e-05, 0.15382745695836628, 0.03659857327826947, 0.0, 0.7161166979537696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01494623027872809, 0.00014840074689743109, 0.0, 0.0006732372709540047, 0.009199763144243124, 0.1449356618917859, 0.0, 0.042887043015429185, 0.031147132792906485, 0.0017224247886170377, 0.01976574903845158, 0.24156585825400556, 1.1173754374714304, 0.0, 0.09152851174639745, 0.10276840568072523, 0.7226252703816205, 0.0, 0.5933959696961665, 0.011446672980895196, 0.21801472876698808, 1.2201085422467455, 0.0652099918217838, 0.09630076000097534, 0.48175634677988033, 0.4930093408264376, 0.0, 0.2212996412673613, 0.0047953512875989176, 0.4826686930868005, 1.2078383598061966, 0.0, 0.14686405350622025, 0.0, 0.756612614385906, 1.6512295118903135, 0.05021694840874592, 0.12324989435468309, 0.6433098258595377, 0.1276540092405181, 1.1708294238155064, 0.0, 0.8880098439936428, 0.16848159163208207, 0.0, 3.0477813173820225, 0.9476389996440641, 0.5236231872436081, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2003125373580485, 0.015850189940038766, 0.819892910951645, 0.0, 1.8175104104135111 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.007722334411289, "coverage": 0.36274254961028934, "baseline_score": 14.500240049536927, "spot_peer_score": 8.464915048378545, "peer_archived_score": 9.007722334411289, "baseline_archived_score": 14.500240049536927, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.464915048378545 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668435895.528319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668435895.528319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33384503232008467, 0.6661549676799153 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 423, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel, a [close US ally](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701406), has [given humanitarian aid to](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-foreign-ministry-to-boost-aid-to-ukraine-including-generators-for-hospital/) and has [established a field hospital](https://israelpolicyforum.org/2022/03/10/zelenskys-appeal-to-jewish-solidarity-must-overcome-one-big-obstacle/) in Ukraine. It has [accepted some Ukrainian refugees](https://www.timesofisrael.com/facing-bitter-criticism-israel-eases-limits-on-entry-of-ukrainian-refugees/) and [voted to condemn the Russian invasion at the UN and helped convince the UAE to do the same](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/at-us-request-israel-said-to-help-convince-uae-to-back-un-resolution-condemning-russia/). Israel [condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/the-false-narrative-of-israeli-neutrality-in-russias-ukraine-invasion/), but the [rhetoric has not been as strong and consistent](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/israel-reluctantly-condemns-russia-over-ukraine) as that from the US and many European states. Ukraine [has complained](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-701022) that Israel has not sent military aid to Ukraine, or joined the sanctions against Russia, though that has [started to change](https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1503316397773971463). Israel [is mediating between Russia and Ukraine](https://www.voanews.com/a/israel-launches-effort-to-mediate-between-russia-ukraine/6478435.html) and maintains relations with both parties. Ukraine [has praised](https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-chief-of-staff-lauds-israels-brave-mediation-efforts-new-refugee-rules/) these mediation efforts, in which Israel is a [key mediator](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/bennett-key-mediator-in-ukraine-russia-talks-report-says-1.10680094). However, some critics that have alleged that the Israeli mediation efforts are not the reason for Israel's lack of military aid, but rather its [fear of Russia](https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-envoy-israel-is-afraid-of-russia-and-should-drop-neutral-position/), with which it has a [deconfliction mechanism](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-699108) in Syria. American officials including Lindsey Graham, a strong supporter of Israel, have [criticized Israel](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy/1646303501-us-officials-call-on-israel-to-take-harder-stance-on-ukraine-war), with Graham specifically protesting Israel's refusal to sell Stinger missiles to Ukraine. A majority of Israelis [support Ukraine](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-699374). There has been a [report](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-likely-to-shift-to-more-pro-ukraine-stance-as-russian-invasion-escalates/) that if the situation continues to escalate, Israel will support Ukraine more openly. Israeli military experts [have expressed openness](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-should-israel-arm-ukraine-israeli-generals-speak-out-1.10678157) to sending Ukraine helmets." }, { "id": 10282, "title": "Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Debt Default in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Debt Default in 2022", "slug": "russian-debt-default-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-15T16:47:11.125628Z", "published_at": "2022-03-16T00:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.432036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-16T00:15:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-16T16:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-16T16:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-09T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-16T00:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 438, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10282, "title": "Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-15T16:47:11.125628Z", "open_time": "2022-03-16T00:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-16T01:28:37.657156Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-16T01:28:37.657156Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-16T16:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-09T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-09T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-16T16:46:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-russias-rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08/) reported on March 8, 2022:\n\n>Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt. The country's financial markets have been thrown into a turmoil by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, raising significant concerns over its ability and willingness to service debt.\n\n\n\n>[...]On March 16, Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments.\n\n\n\n>\"The 'C' rating in Fitch's assessment is only one step above default, bringing it in line with the Moody's current equivalent score of 'Ca'.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved positively if before December 31, 2022, representatives of Russia announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, or Moody's) announce that Russia has entered default (including selective or restricted default) on any of its sovereign debt obligations, or if any two of the following media organizations announce that Russia has defaulted on any of its sovereign debt obligations:\n\n\n\n- BBC News\n\n- Bloomberg\n\n- CNN\n\n- Financial Times\n\n- Reuters\n\n- Wall Street Journal\n\n- CNB", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649513189.049598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 438, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649513189.049598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 438, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7911227272395911 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0034769025731773906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006545645657025918, 0.0, 0.0012549711588213002, 8.67703184631683e-06, 0.0, 0.020260883550402824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30900086284590605, 1.5423908774032177e-05, 0.0, 0.17923153378177462, 0.0, 0.0026105298787846187, 0.37586990485236355, 2.7864891588557652e-05, 0.0030405903570039903, 0.0, 0.005050063227710773, 0.0, 0.0030145417369536005, 0.015331551483633863, 4.6595882162299945e-05, 0.8296165008570264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007339596816482792, 0.005112975810078187, 0.01841628296452791, 0.016817185644637828, 0.0, 0.001089851798362194, 0.0, 0.008469637353055334, 0.022354526730342543, 0.007531085683589268, 0.0, 0.005679540885666967, 0.7742488891645584, 0.028747070959996093, 0.021170233275069644, 0.007005410304776747, 0.0005071085512148583, 0.0023510495611360513, 0.027171361834323438, 0.9345459645227913, 0.0, 0.017027243976790955, 0.20263466229151678, 0.6247318147062524, 0.15453304097136772, 0.08647418836601567, 0.011444354814193093, 0.20662355097901142, 0.39061913746987464, 0.28072975232162656, 1.3845770195846359, 1.6865269698286964, 0.9370506847845756, 0.5567623095198095, 0.011950339344543735, 0.8177387526748929, 0.4100232796227944, 1.8996363137026133, 0.178864933620907, 0.3234289324544975, 0.735411955553255, 0.3461684038960967, 3.7059593113227067, 0.6262577166978266, 1.8978911378633943, 1.8284134525130624, 0.1914704537146855, 2.794105243194273, 0.49092132719797493, 0.6819582618857416, 1.9230290259111666, 0.941064700726464, 3.6013816632728775, 0.6240958460845819, 0.03327446907910003, 0.8442226398551143, 0.09616395404483451, 0.7915745102288612, 0.021485021275639473, 8.426227710016066e-06, 3.185002826946905e-06, 4.36558224689075 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.06789869139198039, "coverage": 0.15956581024304312, "baseline_score": 5.7855552884958135, "spot_peer_score": -2.5392823506454327, "peer_archived_score": -0.06789869139198039, "baseline_archived_score": 5.7855552884958135, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.5392823506454327 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649483013.869545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649483013.869545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23919582575363163, 0.7608041742463684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1120, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-russias-rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08/) reported on March 8, 2022:\n\n>Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a default is imminent as sanctions and trade restrictions have undermined its willingness to service debt. The country's financial markets have been thrown into a turmoil by Western sanctions after it invaded Ukraine, raising significant concerns over its ability and willingness to service debt.\n\n\n\n>[...]On March 16, Russia is due to pay $107 million in coupons across two bonds, though it has a 30-day grace period to make the payments.\n\n\n\n>\"The 'C' rating in Fitch's assessment is only one step above default, bringing it in line with the Moody's current equivalent score of 'Ca'." }, { "id": 10269, "title": "Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?", "short_title": "Kyiv Under Russian Control before 2023", "url_title": "Kyiv Under Russian Control before 2023", "slug": "kyiv-under-russian-control-before-2023", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2022-03-14T14:51:45.174373Z", "published_at": "2022-03-14T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.000579Z", "curation_status": 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In early March, [heavy fighting in the northwestern suburbs of Kyiv began](https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3169608/ukraine-kyivs-suburbs-desperate-people-are-trapped). President Zelensky has [remained in Kyiv](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/zelensky-defiantly-reveals-he-is-at-his-kyiv-office-not-hiding/) and announced his intention not to retreat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2023 it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Kyiv is under Russian military control. 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to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked [only once in NATO history](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html): by the United States after the [attacks on September 11, 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) is invoked by a NATO country. 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Finland and Sweden’s policies of military non-alignment have persisted to the present, although renewed threats of Russian aggression are prompting conversations of potential NATO membership.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by December 31, 2022, Sweden formally asks NATO to establish an [Intensified Dialogue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Intensified_Dialogue) for the purpose of joining the treaty, or signs a [Membership Action Plan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Membership_Action_Plan) agreement with NATO.\n\nResolution will be based on an announcement on the [NATO website](https://www.nato.int/) or a statement by the head of the Swedish government. \n\nThe question will also resolve positively if NATO sets up another comparable kind of formal \"aspiring member\" arrangement with Sweden.", "fine_print": "If the membership process is started and then stopped later in 2022, this question still resolves positively.", "post_id": 10255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652802736.198216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 384, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652802736.198216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 384, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9764137743930036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.447673162187945e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2699485198021319e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.781154163338214e-05, 4.2583381297683387e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7231395315874095e-06, 3.635186540550368e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5158166175920155e-05, 5.133517531125617e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1740528278695334e-06, 0.0, 3.576027489385717e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4937207343819197e-06, 0.0, 1.8887903336715076e-05, 8.511239567148511e-08, 1.5913625741112441e-06, 4.791558195123728e-05, 1.1886269961827782e-05, 7.024043388986759e-07, 2.2613439331285722e-05, 0.0009244323868944751, 5.132080399036779e-06, 1.2506099416489732e-05, 0.07911414898049635, 2.014424031529979e-06, 0.0, 0.0006004085297912336, 4.797341182104569e-06, 0.0, 8.392579265933314e-09, 0.0, 5.1137587168323425e-05, 6.132977333566979e-07, 5.4898854453470304e-06, 4.351471713184035e-08, 6.6908328861104705e-06, 7.620467527848714e-06, 0.0, 7.1389043208601755e-06, 0.0, 2.3463060466953255e-06, 3.296494941728843e-05, 1.136245020562695e-07, 0.0014194112133231237, 0.0, 0.0027819344680286642, 3.4708050703441785e-05, 2.366186133792834e-05, 0.0002213914724834391, 1.3221305432133332e-06, 0.0, 0.09136021696466737, 0.035920491204031194, 0.0, 0.007711843001201089, 0.0, 0.0029025909325625563, 0.034093681604945344, 2.9510437242748427e-05, 0.0, 0.0013610455837103509, 0.11603822762856611, 0.3410729943893658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5539377237634975, 0.011822516845890599, 0.003502417887031894, 0.0029918325385411186, 0.0, 1.0824207017446748, 0.7175768400824368, 0.2826856389335032, 0.05469066917807867, 0.022073841518060328, 0.1594266154487141, 0.39009513298764453, 1.733832107936627, 2.197216187381087, 29.76578056367994 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.723780664051528, "coverage": 0.2148454541963443, "baseline_score": 8.281385100733173, "spot_peer_score": 15.852226271069885, "peer_archived_score": 6.723780664051528, "baseline_archived_score": 8.281385100733173, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.852226271069885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652765153.701584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652765153.701584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.025563770267710617, 0.9744362297322894 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1069, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Euroactiv reported in its article *[Finland, Sweden to receive enhanced access to NATO intel over Ukraine](https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/finland-sweden-to-receive-enhanced-access-to-nato-intel-over-ukraine/)*:\n\n> \"According to diplomatic sources, NATO leaders on Friday discussed the special role of both (Finland, Sweden) since “they need to be fully informed because of their strategic position for Russia”.\n\n> [...]Over the past years, Finland and Sweden have both complained of incidents involving Russian submarines and aircraft breaching airspace in the Baltic Sea region. 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it begin?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10265/ukraine-without-internet-when/)\n\n----\n\nThe Verge [reported](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/24/22949115/internet-disruptions-ukraine-kharkiv-russia) on the Russo-Ukraine conflict on Feb 24 2022:\n\n> [...] \"as the conflict intensifies, many civil society groups are increasingly concerned about the possibility of direct attacks on the country’s internet infrastructure. Russia has previously been linked to DDoS attacks against Ukrainian government sites — but a full blackout would mean going further, using physical or cyber weaponry to disable telecommunications infrastructure at the network level, and silencing Ukrainians in the process.\n\n> [...] The invasion has already reduced internet connectivity in some parts of the country. At present, outages seem to be centered around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is located in the northeast of the country, around 25 miles from the Russian border.\"\n\nThe [Center for Applied Internet Data Analysis](https://www.caida.org/) (CAIDA), based at the [University of California's San Diego Supercomputer Center](https://www.sdsc.edu/) maintains, for their [Internet Outage and Detection Analysis](https://ioda.caida.org/ioda) (IODA) project, a [dashboard](https://ioda.caida.org/ioda/dashboard) monitoring several metrics of internet connectivity.\n\nAccording to the dashboard, internet connectivity in Ukraine has been slowly decreasing since the start of the conflict with Russia on February 24, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if there is a 24 hour period between March 7, 2022 and July 31, 2022, in which the \"Active probing (# /24s Up)\" metric on the [IODA dashboard for Ukraine](https://ioda.caida.org/ioda/dashboard#view=inspect&entity=country/UA&lastView=overview&from=-1mon&until=now) stays below 0.5. This would mean that 50% of the IP address blocks allocated in Ukraine are not reachable, roughly corresponding to \"50% of the Ukrainian internet\" being down", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659258170.347419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659258170.347419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02836353874802343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.255059987536807, 1.927929833328641, 1.0753560100244797, 0.20735825900544153, 0.1984798008492137, 0.04134881769973278, 0.5407050085873193, 0.04525819312797878, 0.02199266387294882, 0.24177611446607267, 0.019527994878786162, 0.00047867142229927385, 0.702043631206854, 0.03743157750976902, 0.09568539457406788, 0.000444104566246216, 0.0001397752867760889, 6.768640175031731e-06, 0.001351238902254141, 0.014964144663677348, 0.00040357934173624894, 4.568223114562019e-05, 0.42261934641175314, 0.014218730190247506, 0.05773932082491759, 0.0, 0.02655097411712953, 0.030000603631773714, 0.0, 0.058816781052998826, 0.0, 9.575855555747977e-05, 0.002404806818892553, 0.0, 0.0003765047326559079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015740724579574685, 0.0004552708441201417, 4.066839075072999e-05, 0.00018261372143268977, 0.00032615273499173795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032657308182998607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031732015110587847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000277889753954047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3030995034395777e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1506640308801268e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1615830530288005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00400208730354621 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.865521921186854, "coverage": 0.9999904614506433, "baseline_score": 79.13426345370517, "spot_peer_score": 9.694899750654121, "peer_archived_score": 14.865521921186854, "baseline_archived_score": 79.13426345370517, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.694899750654121 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659258170.379885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659258170.379885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 206, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 602, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If CAIDA measures a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022, when will it begin?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10265/ukraine-without-internet-when/)\n\n----\n\nThe Verge [reported](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/24/22949115/internet-disruptions-ukraine-kharkiv-russia) on the Russo-Ukraine conflict on Feb 24 2022:\n\n> [...] \"as the conflict intensifies, many civil society groups are increasingly concerned about the possibility of direct attacks on the country’s internet infrastructure. Russia has previously been linked to DDoS attacks against Ukrainian government sites — but a full blackout would mean going further, using physical or cyber weaponry to disable telecommunications infrastructure at the network level, and silencing Ukrainians in the process.\n\n> [...] The invasion has already reduced internet connectivity in some parts of the country. At present, outages seem to be centered around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is located in the northeast of the country, around 25 miles from the Russian border.\"\n\nThe [Center for Applied Internet Data Analysis](https://www.caida.org/) (CAIDA), based at the [University of California's San Diego Supercomputer Center](https://www.sdsc.edu/) maintains, for their [Internet Outage and Detection Analysis](https://ioda.caida.org/ioda) (IODA) project, a [dashboard](https://ioda.caida.org/ioda/dashboard) monitoring several metrics of internet connectivity.\n\nAccording to the dashboard, internet connectivity in Ukraine has been slowly decreasing since the start of the conflict with Russia on February 24, 2022." }, { "id": 10249, "title": "Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?", "short_title": "Georgia Sanctions Russia by 2024", "url_title": "Georgia Sanctions Russia by 2024", "slug": "georgia-sanctions-russia-by-2024", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-13T13:02:03.668588Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.954878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 436, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, 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"id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10249, "title": "Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-13T13:02:03.668588Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-16T03:31:32.164662Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-16T03:31:32.164662Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia [invaded Georgia in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War). Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be found [here](https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2021/10/05/what-just-happened-in-tbilisi-will-affect-all-of-you/).\n\nOn March 1, 2022, Radio Free Europe reported in its article [Protesters in Tbilisi Decry Georgian Government´s Inadequate Support for Ukraine](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-tbilisi-protest-georgia/31731006.html) that:\n\n> \"Demonstrations in support of Ukraine have taken place in Tbilisi and other Georgian cities since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, but so far they have not been political. The rally on March 1 was the first in which an opposition leader took the stage. The rally demanded the resignation of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and his government, active steps to support Ukraine, and the backing of an official request for EU membership.\n\n> [...] After Russia's invasion of Ukraine last week, Garibashvili said Tbilisi did not plan to join Western sanctions against Russia. \n\n> [...] On February 28, Georgian authorities did not allow a Ukrainian plane that was supposed to shuttle 30 Georgian volunteers to Kyiv to land at Tbilisi's airport.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, the Georgian government officially imposes [international sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions) against Russia.\n\nTariffs will be considered sanctions", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704011027.911438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704011027.911438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01919206930232482 ], "histogram": [ [ 23.218291727948433, 13.111674093248565, 0.5780736447114688, 0.26764115547964196, 0.10032119822168384, 0.7375060082979676, 0.6643932186050691, 0.03863068989462656, 0.032916086360637274, 0.0002773266417921956, 0.2938470893252976, 0.03816589078530615, 0.0011850769343010681, 0.0010709499720038787, 0.0015208690499820398, 0.01095961947014172, 2.3978334723401058e-06, 3.144387135209864e-08, 0.013166196428208888, 0.18019026009718075, 0.024641786980753377, 0.0009180360145000916, 0.0007563665788805891, 5.574615417424368e-07, 0.0, 0.0003702059606406306, 0.00047925164430573467, 0.18341668256446228, 4.6693718810308986e-05, 0.0, 0.019573449212854952, 3.4469253580999493e-07, 0.0023621879661552122, 0.007571649464548318, 0.0004324697459268993, 0.00011584258389716191, 0.00037800126423202926, 0.0, 0.0014119616886674772, 0.002735757343365554, 0.007029104871346097, 0.00045751217593000877, 0.0, 3.278936637977789e-05, 2.529300008906994e-05, 6.620467588716476e-05, 0.00010439424119775464, 8.158517855643689e-05, 1.0132307284415497e-05, 4.830449960878945e-05, 0.7136306006741072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.3176019971238536e-06, 4.603758058099858e-05, 8.255335750979331e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0184812784766816e-08, 3.1970616233593756e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0140498927047625e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.169463771220666e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004404707221418381, 0.0, 0.0016795384228317056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025683504067047834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7344158069494352e-06, 0.004146338713608124, 0.0, 8.464329271087046e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 9.829379282100717e-06, 3.900275974481219e-06, 8.52598243499853e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3708305273877025e-06, 2.5469524839827145e-06, 1.3275919914484485e-06, 0.0, 3.853625638505157e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 40.712711055717165, "coverage": 0.9999929174246479, "baseline_score": 78.16456114578494, "spot_peer_score": 12.666912808083985, "peer_archived_score": 40.712711055717165, "baseline_archived_score": 78.16456114578494, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.666912808083985 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704011027.970842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704011027.970842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 436, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1509, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia [invaded Georgia in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War). Since the 2012 elections, pro-Russian candidates have been elected, and there's a growing perception that Georgia has slowly begun to move away from the West. One account of recent political events in Georgia can be found [here](https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2021/10/05/what-just-happened-in-tbilisi-will-affect-all-of-you/).\n\nOn March 1, 2022, Radio Free Europe reported in its article [Protesters in Tbilisi Decry Georgian Government´s Inadequate Support for Ukraine](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-invasion-tbilisi-protest-georgia/31731006.html) that:\n\n> \"Demonstrations in support of Ukraine have taken place in Tbilisi and other Georgian cities since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, but so far they have not been political. The rally on March 1 was the first in which an opposition leader took the stage. The rally demanded the resignation of Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili and his government, active steps to support Ukraine, and the backing of an official request for EU membership.\n\n> [...] After Russia's invasion of Ukraine last week, Garibashvili said Tbilisi did not plan to join Western sanctions against Russia. \n\n> [...] On February 28, Georgian authorities did not allow a Ukrainian plane that was supposed to shuttle 30 Georgian volunteers to Kyiv to land at Tbilisi's airport.\"" }, { "id": 10246, "title": "Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024?", "url_title": "Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024?", "slug": "russian-coup-or-regime-change-before-2024", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-13T12:09:36.849083Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.262407Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) defines a coup in the following way:\n\n> A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.\n\n[Their definition of regime change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_change) is similar:\n\n> Regime change is the forcible or coerced replacement of one government regime with another. Regime change may replace all or part of the state's most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or bureaucracy.\n\nA coup or regime change of the Russian government would likely have a significant impact on the [2022 military conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 6 of the following 10 sources publish a public report or article claiming that either a \"coup\" or \"regime change\" has taken place in Russia:\n\n- The Economist\n- The New York Times\n- Reuters\n- The Associated Press\n- The Guardian\n- The BBC\n- Al Jazeera\n- South China Morning Post\n- [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/)\n- [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/)\n\nThis question will not resolve as **Yes** if Russian President Vladimir Putin (or any successor of Putin) voluntarily resigns during this period\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n> A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.\n\nAn unsuccessful coup attempt therefore is not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.", "fine_print": "A resignation will be considered \"voluntary\" if it is not coerced. In the event of a resignation, a team of three Metaculus admins will make a determination of whether the resignation was coerced.", "post_id": 10246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704011065.950284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704011065.950284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1269, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.013937758529322561 ], "histogram": [ [ 36.866684796438115, 25.239778020784037, 2.104657285643075, 1.3441718069725144, 0.48384202509322805, 0.7801550711916795, 0.6572448874258863, 0.5761932639546601, 0.03463962332074592, 0.23673319515789706, 0.2044078736048457, 0.05116226183072491, 0.003221072698887221, 0.020084951686339038, 0.015623349103935773, 0.4671730617260107, 0.002408394023307881, 0.010004752534236713, 0.004759475418591725, 0.018003542771612594, 0.017660999453209793, 0.014844363217837369, 0.08395953313811877, 0.12098324955199626, 0.07043618657238501, 0.06256094804483019, 0.0017945342471144975, 7.810004781284684e-06, 0.020126027307318283, 0.0, 0.003754067915405117, 7.712445197114481e-06, 2.920192545383551e-07, 3.247984360517494e-06, 0.0006888133367013078, 0.0016170656680435287, 0.0009335808317163267, 1.4544024371611784e-12, 7.046556953819738e-09, 0.0, 0.0005788647636603537, 2.485071183695804e-07, 4.999810404437039e-07, 3.349848434246864e-07, 0.0008995408803611363, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6000801876685455e-07, 4.25202879631262e-07, 5.785536032088261e-07, 0.00034844291476305623, 4.2349597368058505e-07, 0.0, 0.0006054404781517777, 0.0, 9.646647512134902e-07, 0.00029528425521848257, 0.005376821095034898, 0.0, 2.6313174046175765e-10, 0.0006196729619371949, 3.020319956481524e-06, 1.6153012946814799e-10, 1.589694323169054e-06, 9.349976668617164e-11, 5.563078828365414e-05, 0.00032925475437523834, 4.856274341774781e-10, 0.0007615909522679457, 8.414048118573826e-06, 0.001038431441042342, 0.0003736607847181871, 5.7211924763095254e-15, 0.0, 0.001720740919206629, 0.014385009507231056, 0.0, 0.0003118239997374191, 8.817887724170467e-05, 0.0, 0.0027568719280391513, 0.0, 0.0005961597969926661, 0.0, 5.021765031400405e-07, 1.1428623561045165e-09, 0.0, 2.513671308855208e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038780187968297095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006162623241864282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1947323748697192 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.839272854064143, "coverage": 0.9999940520388754, "baseline_score": 83.51439100826758, "spot_peer_score": 1.2234487064265498, "peer_archived_score": 13.839272854064143, "baseline_archived_score": 83.51439100826758, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2234487064265498 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704011066.063803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704011066.063803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1269, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 68, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4013, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) defines a coup in the following way:\n\n> A coup [...] is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, rebel group, military, or a dictator.\n\n[Their definition of regime change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_change) is similar:\n\n> Regime change is the forcible or coerced replacement of one government regime with another. Regime change may replace all or part of the state's most critical leadership system, administrative apparatus, or bureaucracy.\n\nA coup or regime change of the Russian government would likely have a significant impact on the [2022 military conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in Ukraine." }, { "id": 10244, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?", "short_title": "Iranian Nuclear Weapons before 2041", "url_title": "Iranian Nuclear Weapons before 2041", "slug": "iranian-nuclear-weapons-before-2041", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-13T06:45:43.338076Z", "published_at": "2022-08-14T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T01:18:30.307611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-08-14T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-08-14T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10244, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?", "created_at": "2022-03-13T06:45:43.338076Z", "open_time": "2022-08-14T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-08-16T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-08-16T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-30T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asked if Iran would get a nuke by 2030, and [other](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/) have also asked about Iran's [substantial nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time before January 1, 2041", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763515099.848613, "end_time": 1763789522.989756, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763515099.848613, "end_time": 1763789522.989756, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 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"description": "A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asked if Iran would get a nuke by 2030, and [other](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/) have also asked about Iran's [substantial nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran)." }, { "id": 10243, "title": "If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?", "short_title": "Intelligent Life After Human Extinction", "url_title": "Intelligent Life After Human Extinction", "slug": "intelligent-life-after-human-extinction", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-13T06:33:45.721115Z", "published_at": "2022-03-16T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:16:11.897842Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10243, "title": "If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?", "created_at": "2022-03-13T06:33:45.721115Z", "open_time": "2022-03-16T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-16T14:22:48.690029Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-16T14:22:48.690029Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "3001-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "3001-01-01T04:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "3001-01-01T04:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He [writes](https://sideways-view.com/2018/06/07/messages-to-the-future/),\n\n> If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we may not take all life on Earth with us. That leaves hope for another intelligent civilization to arise; if they do, we could potentially help them by leaving carefully chosen messages.\n\n> In this post I’ll argue that despite sounding kind of crazy, this could potentially compare favorably to more conventional extinction risk reduction.\n\nHe offers a conditional prediction:\n\n> If humanity drives ourselves extinct (without AI), I think there is a ~1/2 chance that another intelligent civilization evolves while the earth remains habitable.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, what it means for humanity to go extinct is that (1) no human is alive, and (2) none of our artificial or biological descendants are alive either (including our AI). This question will resolve ambiguously if humanity is not extinct by the year 10,000 AD. Otherwise, it will wait until Earth becomes uninhabitable for complex multi-cellular life before resolving.\n\nAnother intelligent civilization is said to evolve on Earth if some group of organisms develops any of the following technologies: agriculture, writing, or mathematics. The organisms must be direct descendants of current Earthly life (so, aliens who visit do not count). If such an intelligent civilization evolves on Earth after humans go extinct, then this question resolves positively. 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He [writes](https://sideways-view.com/2018/06/07/messages-to-the-future/),\n\n> If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we may not take all life on Earth with us. That leaves hope for another intelligent civilization to arise; if they do, we could potentially help them by leaving carefully chosen messages.\n\n> In this post I’ll argue that despite sounding kind of crazy, this could potentially compare favorably to more conventional extinction risk reduction.\n\nHe offers a conditional prediction:\n\n> If humanity drives ourselves extinct (without AI), I think there is a ~1/2 chance that another intelligent civilization evolves while the earth remains habitable." }, { "id": 10220, "title": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "short_title": "95% Nigerian Financial Inclusion by 2025", "url_title": "95% Nigerian Financial Inclusion by 2025", "slug": "95-nigerian-financial-inclusion-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-09T22:07:02.599423Z", "published_at": "2022-03-12T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:57:52.703164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-12T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-12T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10220, "title": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-03-09T22:07:02.599423Z", "open_time": "2022-03-12T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-13T09:58:13.530997Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-13T09:58:13.530997Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account. According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. \n\n\n[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.\n\nIn July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as \"Yes\" if 95% or more of Nigerians aged 18 or older have an account at a bank or financial institution before January 1, 2025. This question will resolve according to data from the [Central Bank of Nigeria](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf); if no such data is available, or said data is known to be inaccurate, data from [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fx.own.totl.zs?locations=NG) may be considered, or from credible independent researchers.\n\nIf the data shows less than 95% of the population with a bank account through 2024, or If no such data is available by March 1, 2026, this question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763210700.834501, "end_time": 1764836357.814, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763210700.834501, "end_time": 1764836357.814, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.008986408153289554 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7555507178417975, 3.4374567388781396, 0.7594260568375137, 0.2661076955156753, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289171.046976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289171.046976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994532694201826, 0.0005467305798173793 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account. According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. \n\n\n[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.\n\nIn July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024." }, { "id": 10209, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?", "short_title": "Zelenskyy Named Time Person of the Year 2022", "url_title": "Zelenskyy Named Time Person of the Year 2022", "slug": "zelenskyy-named-time-person-of-the-year-2022", "author_id": 114156, "author_username": "TeeJayKay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-08T22:54:49.873663Z", "published_at": "2022-03-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.180246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-07T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 337, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10209, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-08T22:54:49.873663Z", "open_time": "2022-03-11T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-11T15:01:36.269953Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-11T15:01:36.269953Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-07T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T07:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-07T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Time Magazine's [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year) is a designation that the magazine gives to the person or group that \"for better or for worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year\".\n\n[Volodymyr Zelenskyy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy) was elected President of Ukraine in 2019, and has recently gained worldwide attention for remaining in the capital city of Kyiv to lead Ukraine's resistance against invading Russian forces.\n\n***Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2022?***\n\nIf Zelenskyy is named Time's Person of the Year for 2022, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\n_March 13 edit: The fine print has been edited to explain more in detail how this question will resolve should “the Ukrainian people” be named by Time as the Person of the Year._\n\n[fine-print]\nIf multiple people are named Person of the Year (e.g. in 2020, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were named):\n\n* If Zelenskyy is one of 4 or fewer people or entities named, this question resolves positively.\n* If he is one of 5 or more people or entities named, it resolves negatively.\n* We will count, for example, \"Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian people, and the UN\" being given the award as Zelenskyy plus two entities (thus resolving positively).\n* Simply naming \"the Ukrainian people\" or even \"the Ukrainian government\" without specifically naming Zelenskyy should not be enough to resolve positively, even if his face is shown on the cover.\n\nIf Zelenskyy is named Person of the Year posthumously, this question still resolves positively.\n\nIf Time does not name a Person of the Year for 2022 at all (including if Time ceases to exist), it resolves negatively.\n\n\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1670420269.329323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 340, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1670420269.329323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 340, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.817708171940609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0002519279366318609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001090930439552991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9501850499972803e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16599931731311102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.660319593925922e-06, 0.15661787704708408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10197, "title": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-07T01:52:24.723341Z", "open_time": "2022-03-07T00:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-07T03:04:30.394337Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-07T03:04:30.394337Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9933/nato-article-5-invocation-by-march-31-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Article 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_6) of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked [only once in NATO history](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html): by the United States after the [attacks on September 11, 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between March 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022, Article 5 of the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm) is invoked by a NATO country. This question may resolve on the basis of official announcements by NATO representatives or government officials", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10197, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656517654.893658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656517654.893658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01941360351120857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 33.63225852188503, 2.5975177351046947, 0.9381023399242225, 0.21149975049368763, 0.2981724654790757, 0.000949389568497246, 0.003172795711272993, 0.00039917436387529315, 0.002788894995547979, 0.09575447055020597, 0.003952452701392988, 0.08908471279081724, 9.17677592611849e-06, 0.0, 0.14021364909220013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00284323967922211, 0.05489704568383814, 0.02922993592290715, 0.0, 5.668314665490412e-05, 0.015310185931969273, 0.00013177061817612554, 3.116302867479393e-05, 0.000265165003256286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.328411073476021e-08, 0.00014415167602421067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003705105118674836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09976486140119138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32285861798237375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0288832687359284e-05, 2.7936055815506342e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012222398808190158 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.191353981774063, "coverage": 0.999303673110152, "baseline_score": 95.96174607763133, "spot_peer_score": 4.718259824353699, "peer_archived_score": 4.191353981774063, "baseline_archived_score": 95.96174607763133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.718259824353699 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656517654.944707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656517654.944707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 401, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 778, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9933/nato-article-5-invocation-by-march-31-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Article 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_6) of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked [only once in NATO history](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html): by the United States after the [attacks on September 11, 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks)." }, { "id": 10176, "title": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?", "short_title": "Stringent anti-solar-geo-eng'ng pact by 2026", "url_title": "Stringent anti-solar-geo-eng'ng pact by 2026", "slug": "stringent-anti-solar-geo-engng-pact-by-2026", "author_id": 112308, "author_username": "Niklas_Lehmann", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-05T16:46:14.675538Z", "published_at": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:58:14.130332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10176, "title": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-03-05T16:46:14.675538Z", "open_time": "2022-11-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-05T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T09:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThus, the initiative requests nations to prohibit the research and deployment of solar geoengineering. Furthermore, nations are asked to not support solar geoengineering in international institutions and to not grant any funds or patents.\n\n***Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent diplomatic agreement against solar geoengineering, before 2026?***\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** if, by the end of the day GMT on December 31st, 2025, 35 or more countries have committed as a matter of treaty obligation to:\n\n1. Ban solar geoengineering experiments\n\n #####AND\n\n2. Ban deployment of any technologies aimed at influencing the global climate by deliberately adding substances to the global atmosphere\n\n #####AND\n\n3. Bar government funds from any research into developing solar geoengineering capabilities, domestically and internationally\n\n #####AND\n\n4. Bar patent rights for inventions of a single-purpose solar geoengineering design\n\n #####AND\n\n5. Agree to work against the development or deployment of solar geoengineering capabilities in international relations and within international institutions.\n\nLand use and regulatory changes, vegetation planting, roof whitening, etc need not be banned as \"solar geoengineering\" under such a pact for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\n**All** of these criteria must be met by any treaty, and more than 34 countries must fully commit to these provisions, without reservations other than on purely procedural or intergovernmental questions, for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\nOtherwise it resolves **No** if *midnight on January 1st, 2026, GMT* arrives without these circumstances coming into being.\n\n*This question also has a less stringent companion:* [Will at least ten countries have committed to *any* diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13467/any-anti-solar-geo-engineering-pact-by-2026/)", "fine_print": "", 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VOC be milder?", "url_title": "Will the next COVID VOC be milder?", "slug": "will-the-next-covid-voc-be-milder", "author_id": 112024, "author_username": "aristophanes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-05T14:09:19.608305Z", "published_at": "2022-03-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.386139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-02T08:29:37.470913Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T15:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T15:31:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/)\n\n---\n\nThere have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha, beta and delta. Meanwhile, Omicron so far appears to be more transmissible, and better able to evade vaccination, but [less severe](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.12.22269148v1.full.pdf). This has lead to [claims that this is a natural course for viral evolution](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story?id=82052581), and we should expect subsequent variants to continue the trend of optimising for transmissibility over severity.\n\nWill the next Variant of Concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2, assigned a Greek letter label,be less deadly than Omicron?", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve as **Yes** if, out of the first 4 peer-reviewed published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the next VOC that is assigned a greek letter label, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the next VOC is less than that due to infection with the Omicron variant.\n\nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with the next VOC in a group and infections with Omicron in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for.\n\nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in the next VOC's lethality relative to Omicron. Otherwise, this resolves as **No** —e.g. it will resolve as **No** if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\n\nThis question resolves as **Ambiguous** if there is no subsequent labeled variant after Omicron or there are not 4 relevant studies published before July 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693864470.438066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693864470.438066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6343882125927357 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.6590390464516561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01134226073249967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1874727013882846, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9577049034944853, 0.24877094235518352, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.8881107721267963, 0.0, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.10251256047355009, 0.1293948440529297, 0.5774070505216831, 0.21942355072478695, 0.7683864760690293, 0.0, 0.0, 1.798387749953823, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0004992891021050837, 4.065357406566449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008832281468067818, 1.2466529681824126, 0.06813627848605193, 0.4927490257761188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.027260261306647233, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.11744082086452651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7156644439712756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40934618494086417 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693899774.715784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693899774.715784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7087544522981938, 0.2912455477018062 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/)\n\n---\n\nThere have been major variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have had increased transmissibility and severity, leading to new waves of the pandemic, primarily alpha, beta and delta. Meanwhile, Omicron so far appears to be more transmissible, and better able to evade vaccination, but [less severe](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.12.22269148v1.full.pdf). This has lead to [claims that this is a natural course for viral evolution](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story?id=82052581), and we should expect subsequent variants to continue the trend of optimising for transmissibility over severity.\n\nWill the next Variant of Concern (VOC) of SARS-CoV-2, assigned a Greek letter label,be less deadly than Omicron?" }, { "id": 10154, "title": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine by 2024", "url_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine by 2024", "slug": "radiation-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-05T02:24:42.347589Z", "published_at": "2022-03-07T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.041845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-07T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 225, "status": "resolved", 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Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt.\" The prime example of a \"major nuclear accident\" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.\n\n\nRussian military forces [seized Chernobyl](https://cen.acs.org/safety/Russia-took-control-Chernobyl-nuclear-site-in-Ukraine-What-does-that-mean/100/web/2022/02) during the first day of the Ukrainian invasion as well as [Zaporizhzhia](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-everything-you-need-to-know), the largest nuclear plant of its kind in Europe, during the seventh day.\n\nFighting near nuclear power plants could possibly mean an increased risk of a serious radiation incident." } ] }
