Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4280
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4260", "results": [ { "id": 10147, "title": "Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?", "short_title": "Confirmation of FBI to Disrupt Web Shells", "url_title": "Confirmation of FBI to Disrupt Web Shells", "slug": "confirmation-of-fbi-to-disrupt-web-shells", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T21:59:21.575985Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.823898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10147, "title": "Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T21:59:21.575985Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-07T10:53:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-07T10:53:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T13:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T21:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2021, the Justice Department [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-court-authorized-effort-disrupt-exploitation-microsoft-exchange#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Justice%20Department%20today,%2Dlevel%20e%2Dmail%20service.) that the FBI had undertaken court-authorized operation to search and uninstall malicious web-shells on U.S-based Microsoft Exchange Servers. The warrant was issued under the Search and Seizure rule in the Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 41(b)(6)(B), and represented, to public knowledge, the first time that this authority was used for an operation like this.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if it is publicly reported by May 30, 2023 that the FBI sought a warrant under Rule 41(b)(6)(B) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure in 2022 and the cause for the warrant was the malicious use of web shell technology. Whether the warrant was granted or not is not relevant", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672440019.850248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672440019.850248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.34507154906805904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8658776861140884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7029172775132146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 1.0072394993156304, 0.0, 0.1961608556279222, 0.0, 0.7445660976288506, 0.4044303609863189, 0.0, 0.3871473484545666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25654816160742966, 3.0196387558724505, 0.3061620984667782, 0.7627494800001504, 0.4600468783234608, 0.14540923080948767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8642672445783581, 0.0, 0.03605708309460087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4606692072450939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527282036556951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3915773092208634, "coverage": 0.9996729236820301, "baseline_score": 27.75683688148353, "spot_peer_score": 6.690433233132581, "peer_archived_score": 2.3915773092208634, "baseline_archived_score": 27.75683688148353, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.690433233132581 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672471979.101398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672471979.101398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8424740646781649, 0.15752593532183515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2021, the Justice Department [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-court-authorized-effort-disrupt-exploitation-microsoft-exchange#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Justice%20Department%20today,%2Dlevel%20e%2Dmail%20service.) that the FBI had undertaken court-authorized operation to search and uninstall malicious web-shells on U.S-based Microsoft Exchange Servers. The warrant was issued under the Search and Seizure rule in the Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 41(b)(6)(B), and represented, to public knowledge, the first time that this authority was used for an operation like this." }, { "id": 10145, "title": "In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?", "short_title": "FITARA Scores Federal Depts >B-", "url_title": "FITARA Scores Federal Depts >B-", "slug": "fitara-scores-federal-depts-b", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T21:54:59.559180Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.625826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T20:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-30T20:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10145, "title": "In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T21:54:59.559180Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-06T04:28:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-06T04:28:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T16:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-01T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-30T20:54:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T20:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The FITARA scorecard is a biennial reporting process in which federal agencies get graded on their levels of cybersecurity and technological modernization. In FITARA 13.0, dating to Dec. 2021, the median cyber score was a C (2 A's, 6 B's, 9 C's, 6 D's).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if the median score for all federal departments in the “Cyber” category in FITARA 14.0 on the [Meritalk site](https://fitara.meritalk.com/?sort=grade) is \"B-\" or higher. Data will be found in the 'Breakdown' table. \n\nFITARA is a semi-annual scorecard and is next scheduled for July 2022. If revisions to FITARA cause the July 2022 round of FITARA to be skipped or delayed, this question will be resolved when the next scorecard is released. If no scorecard is released by May 30, 2023 this will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656620186.035914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656620186.035914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3500816318609058 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3092528452571442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01590012308576472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3469183260877188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8182442844606035, 1.5668131641239333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670801325134674, 0.0862062439156513, 0.1061981125451795, 0.10046282618903157, 0.0, 0.9201938951383025, 0.22659881065625792, 0.8448729426304376, 0.7514325496251095, 0.5164960024539398, 0.20728428597607368, 0.8681173057820424, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0246738149768881, 1.5396971994665365, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.14294776347577356, 0.05213926968346112, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26969150866663705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17268889098444576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013393291873889481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701514513498173, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.63430055657142, "coverage": 0.999155779710026, "baseline_score": 40.50535855080203, "spot_peer_score": 13.69969348105334, "peer_archived_score": 15.63430055657142, "baseline_archived_score": 40.50535855080203, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.69969348105334 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656620186.054891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656620186.054891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8649602569793918, 0.1350397430206082 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The FITARA scorecard is a biennial reporting process in which federal agencies get graded on their levels of cybersecurity and technological modernization. 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In 2021, legislation was introduced in the Senate (Endless Frontiers or \"USICA\") to [authorize $52 billion](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-bringing-semiconductor-manufacturing-back-to-america-2/#:~:text=This%20investment%20will%20create%207%2C000,strength%20of%20the%20American%20economy.&text=It%20includes%20full%20funding%20for,and%20continued%20American%20technological%20leadership.) for the semiconductor industry. Some progressives criticize the proposed allocation as a handout to industry, though other members of Congress pitch the funding as necessary part of a broader technological race between the United States and China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as “yes” if the US Congress passes the language proposed in the Senate’s USICA bill or House's COMPETES Act or other similar language authorizing for no less than $50 billion directed toward the semiconductor industry and the subsequent Bill is sent to President Biden to sign. The money may be specifically tied to the CHIPS/FABS Act, to research and development, to foundry construction or maintenance, to the Defense Department, or to other tasks or entities designated by Congress or a designated managing department, group, process, or agency.\n\nPresident Biden does not need to sign the Bill before May 1, 2022 for this question to resolve positively.\n\nResolution will come from an official U.S. Congress announcement. The money does not need to have been transferred or any payments made. 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Some progressives criticize the proposed allocation as a handout to industry, though other members of Congress pitch the funding as necessary part of a broader technological race between the United States and China." }, { "id": 10143, "title": "Will the U.S. Congress pass into law a cyber incident reporting act for entities that own or operate critical infrastructure before June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "US to pass cyber incident reporting act?", "url_title": "US to pass cyber incident reporting act?", "slug": "us-to-pass-cyber-incident-reporting-act", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T21:49:52.072423Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.722206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-04T15:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-04T15:05:00Z", 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[Ransomware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ransomware) has increasingly targeted confidentiality and availability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between March 1, 2022 to July 1, 2022, a major cyber incident has targeted the integrity of system data such that the data remains in the system and readable, but has been injected with incorrect or external data. This question will resolve according to credible reports published on or before December 31, 2022.\n\nAn incident is defined as “major” if it does one or more of the following:(a) Impacts a critical infrastructure owner or operator; (b) Costs more than $1 million in damage, whether internally to the company and/or externally to clients and consumers; (c) Causes direct physical harm to one or more persons\n\nCritical infrastructure is defined by the US government as: \n> \"sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof\"\n\nAn example of this type of attack may include: A hospital hit by ransomware. 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[Ransomware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ransomware) has increasingly targeted confidentiality and availability." }, { "id": 10137, "title": "Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?", "short_title": "Cyberattack on GNSS before May 2023", "url_title": "Cyberattack on GNSS before May 2023", "slug": "cyberattack-on-gnss-before-may-2023", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:52:38.736663Z", "published_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.590293Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:33:00Z", "open_time": 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10137, "title": "Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:52:38.736663Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T01:11:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T01:11:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T13:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T13:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:52:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Both civilian and military processes rely heavily on space-based infrastructure -- a trend that is likely to increase. Space-based systems and their Earth-based components are [frequently subjected to cyberattacks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/30/space-race-china-david-thompson/) and other non-kinetic forms of attack. To our knowledge, none of these has yet resulted in significant damage. \n\nSatellites are predicted to become one of the most targeted space-based assets in the coming years for hackers and other forms of cyber attacks. A [recent example](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/02/russia-space-chief-hacking-satellites-war-00013211) of an attack was reported to have occurred in early March on Russian satellites by the hacking group, Anonymous.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between April 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023, there is a cyberattack which results in any one of the following:\n\n1. Causes an estimated $1 million or more in direct damages to the compan(ies) or government(s) owning or operating the GNSS system, OR\n\n2. Results in a loss of control over any space-based asset(s) for at least one hour, OR\n\n3. Results in the loss of GNSS capabilities for a period of at least 24 hours.\n\nNote that there are [4 GNSS](https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/what-are-the-various-gnss-systems/) globally. Only one of them is the US' GPS system.\n\nA cyberattack will be [defined as](https://csrc.nist.gov/glossary/term/Cyber_Attack): \n> \"An attack, via cyberspace, targeting an enterprise’s use of cyberspace for the purpose of disrupting, disabling, destroying, or maliciously controlling a computing environment/infrastructure; or destroying the integrity of the data or stealing controlled information.\" \n\nAs an attack may occur for an extended period of time, we will define a single attack as an attack that is instigated by a single individual or group against the same system or systems regardless of the amount of time that attack occurs for. The beginning of the attack will be considered the moment of unauthorized intrusion: an action such as port scanning does not count.\n\nIf an attack is publicly announced within the period as having occurred between April 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023, but the attack technically began before this period, then the attack will still count toward resolution as long as the attack lasts more than 48 hours within the time frame.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672467811.046224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672467811.046224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2570477120787873 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6440721400684303, 0.6019627254324547, 0.40081462881306185, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6726833107922883, 0.1298586955044776, 0.8980715325447933, 1.0, 0.0, 1.515835245809547, 0.0773927070098371, 1.4314822458101784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34174454656460485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.43015426949248, "coverage": 0.9994552957299889, "baseline_score": 63.79230276234834, "spot_peer_score": 18.475719174010123, "peer_archived_score": 27.43015426949248, "baseline_archived_score": 63.79230276234834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.475719174010123 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672472807.630027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672472807.630027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9143495577965646, 0.08565044220343539 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Both civilian and military processes rely heavily on space-based infrastructure -- a trend that is likely to increase. Space-based systems and their Earth-based components are [frequently subjected to cyberattacks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/30/space-race-china-david-thompson/) and other non-kinetic forms of attack. To our knowledge, none of these has yet resulted in significant damage. \n\nSatellites are predicted to become one of the most targeted space-based assets in the coming years for hackers and other forms of cyber attacks. A [recent example](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/02/russia-space-chief-hacking-satellites-war-00013211) of an attack was reported to have occurred in early March on Russian satellites by the hacking group, Anonymous." }, { "id": 10133, "title": "Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?", "short_title": "US Bans Ransomware Payments in 2022", "url_title": "US Bans Ransomware Payments in 2022", "slug": "us-bans-ransomware-payments-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:45:26.853847Z", "published_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.994031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10133, "title": "Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:45:26.853847Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T01:10:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T01:10:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T18:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over the last year, the Biden administration has [tried to mitigate](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/21/us/politics/treasury-department-combating-ransomware-cryptocurrency.html) the ransomware crisis with a combination of different tools. One of these has been to disincentivize ransomware attacks by sanctioning currency exchanges that process illegal transactions, intercepting payments already issued by a victim company.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if one or more of the following occurs between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022:\n\n1) The White House must propose to Congress legislation banning or limiting ransomware payments. Proposed legislation does not need to pass for this question to resolve to “yes.”\n\n2) The White House issues a national security memorandum or executive order banning or limiting ransomware payments.\n\n3) One or more executive branch agencies such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency or Office of the National Cyber Director must put forth regulations or compliance measures banning or limiting ransomware payments in one or more sectors or for one or more types of company. 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For nearly two years, the global economy has struggled with a [deficit of semiconductor chips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%93present_global_chip_shortage) -- the tiny integrated circuits that are critical components in everything from cars and refrigerators to AR/VR and weapons systems. Chip lead time is one indicator of the severity of the crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves at any point that average lead times drop to below 15 weeks on average and is based on data and analysis from the Susquehanna Financial Group.\n\nData can be posted or reported by other media platforms or news sites as long it is clearly attributable to Susquehanna Financial Group. An [example post](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/chip-delivery-times-are-on-the-rise-again-shortages-to-continue) can be found here from January 4, 2022. \n\nIf data is posted for June 15 and July 15 and the lead time drops below 15 between these postings, only data from before July 1 will be utilized for resolution. Data postings and data for certain dates might not necessarily align, so for this question, we will use data for specific dates rather than the dates data was released", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10130, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656616972.08534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656616972.08534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05173080464540008 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.790100939149479, 1.9242611659842879, 1.8571765211421076, 0.11956942337120113, 0.7002280305855083, 0.0729554033805141, 0.0, 0.034565349343469706, 0.0, 0.11224393112644107, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13353337887974726, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023055425843545658, 0.005493616612509603, 0.012743115153841533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15320757229807203, 0.9444287945822242, 0.0, 0.23357153210796885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03198265751660178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021970852493914648, 0.0, 0.002803478323472846, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3109139374138491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021830841510801758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.7745722740308, "coverage": 0.9991681180354651, "baseline_score": 86.69544600931883, "spot_peer_score": 11.896230375185175, "peer_archived_score": 14.7745722740308, "baseline_archived_score": 86.69544600931883, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.896230375185175 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656616972.107487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656616972.107487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For nearly two years, the global economy has struggled with a [deficit of semiconductor chips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%93present_global_chip_shortage) -- the tiny integrated circuits that are critical components in everything from cars and refrigerators to AR/VR and weapons systems. Chip lead time is one indicator of the severity of the crisis." }, { "id": 10127, "title": "Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?", "short_title": "DDoS Attack Greater Than 3.5TPS in 2022", "url_title": "DDoS Attack Greater Than 3.5TPS in 2022", "slug": "ddos-attack-greater-than-35tps-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:34:38.810896Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.358665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T20:35:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10127, "title": "Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:34:38.810896Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-07T10:45:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-07T10:45:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T20:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-31T20:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-31T20:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:34:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:34:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Distributed denial-of-service attacks occur when a targeted server is deliberately overwhelmed by requests. The largest attack occurred late in 2021 at a total of [3.47 Tbps](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/01/microsoft-fends-off-record-breaking-3-47-tbps-ddos-attack/), and was reported in late January 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a DDoS attack greater than 3.5TPS occurs between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, according to credible public reports available by January 31, 2023.\n\nWe will utilize [this definition](https://www.cloudflare.com/learning/ddos/what-is-a-ddos-attack/) of a DDoS attack for resolution:\n\n\"A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt the normal traffic of a targeted server, service or network by overwhelming the target or its surrounding infrastructure with a flood of Internet traffic.\" \n\nThe DDoS attack will be measured in terabytes per second (Tbps, TPS).\n\nResolution will come from an announcement from the affected company(s) or from at least 2 reputable news/media sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672516768.206777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672516768.206777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15727270839037522 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.4423552630205085, 0.4816005639845058, 0.8901785867383133, 1.7074061525725193, 1.0616645307639012, 0.0, 1.8536781949297523, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1210915951751526, 0.724928977791107, 0.5194046048006896, 1.3428415928398267, 0.0, 0.7654521888776699, 0.19932370720222498, 0.0, 0.48203206679527805, 0.0, 0.8369455623084047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3074206530873218, 0.061372356574412465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12610574305286126, 0.0, 0.1441359186257884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1100607171671536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4129173969284148, 0.17247194428038443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18701184823326883, 0.13485998229537074, 0.010174674941564427, 0.0, 0.14513041716703481, 0.021710077376296863, 0.15396039658997956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3094598560464603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11784751309006193, 0.11108567238409892, 0.0068014490219983756, 0.062123617520396156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007414948227486167, 0.0741194578584116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.0031981729232186985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03528103892861132, 0.12856057127266948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06602972592746506, 0.015786402147731447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011996888754096357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11165094727765615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 41.42245078768233, "coverage": 0.9996854502330892, "baseline_score": -31.562957289971425, "spot_peer_score": 49.579980403137746, "peer_archived_score": 41.42245078768233, "baseline_archived_score": -31.562957289971425, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.579980403137746 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672516768.22686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672516768.22686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9746415008082769, 0.02535849919172311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 231, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Distributed denial-of-service attacks occur when a targeted server is deliberately overwhelmed by requests. The largest attack occurred late in 2021 at a total of [3.47 Tbps](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/01/microsoft-fends-off-record-breaking-3-47-tbps-ddos-attack/), and was reported in late January 2022." }, { "id": 10126, "title": "Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?", "short_title": "Zero-day Exploit Against US by June 2022", "url_title": "Zero-day Exploit Against US by June 2022", "slug": "zero-day-exploit-against-us-by-june-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:33:27.227129Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.353251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T19:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-30T19:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T01:19:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10126, "title": "Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:33:27.227129Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-11T10:08:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-11T10:08:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T01:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-16T01:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-30T19:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-30T19:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [zero-day exploit](https://usa.kaspersky.com/resource-center/definitions/zero-day-exploit) is one that takes advantage of a previously-unknown vulnerability in software or hardware that hackers are able to take advantage of. So far, 2021 has had the [largest number](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/23/1036140/2021-record-zero-day-hacks-reasons/) of zero-day attacks of any year to date, with costs often greater than $1M USD each.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a new zero day exploit is both used and disclosed against one or more U.S.-based systems and results in the compromise of at least 100 million Americans' personal information between March 8, 2022 and July 1, 2022. \n\nAs defined by cybersecurity company, [Fireeye](https://www.fireeye.com/current-threats/what-is-a-zero-day-exploit.html): \n\n> \"A zero-day attack happens once that flaw, or software/hardware vulnerability, is exploited and attackers release malware before a developer has an opportunity to create a patch to fix the vulnerability—hence “zero-day.”\n\n\nThe attack must be new, as in not previously known to the public through any type of publication, report, or announcement. To qualify for resolution, the attack must also be disclosed and reported by July 1, 2022. An attack occurring before July 1 reported in August or September 2022 would not trigger a positive resolution. \n\n\n\nA U.S.-based system is defined for the purpose of this question as a system operated by a U.S. company based within the internationally accepted borders of the United States. \n\n\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define [personal information compromise](https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/personal-data-compromise#:~:text=Remove%20Advertising-,Personal%20Data%20Compromise%20means%20the%20loss%2C%20theft%2C%20accidental%20release%20or,or%20more%20%22affected%20individuals%22.) as such:\n\n> \"Personal Data Compromise means the loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication of “personally identifying information” or “personally sensitive information” as respects one or more “affected individuals”. If the loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication involves “personally identifying information”, such loss, theft, accidental release or accidental publication must result in or have the reasonable possibility of resulting in the fraudulent use of such information.\n\n\nThe Americans affected may reside abroad or in the United States, but must hold either American citizenship or consider themselves primarily residing within the U.S.\n\n\n\nResolution will be sourced from the targeted company(s) announcements, government reports, reputable reports from cybersecurity analysis and protection firms, or at least three reputable news sources. \n\n\n\nIf only some of these conditions are fulfilled, or it is impossible to find information to properly determine whether these conditions can be fulfilled, then this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10126, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656602024.849701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656602024.849701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04483801135693521 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 12.527539713960808, 0.8355985599605342, 0.09728295663983759, 0.057208863054134, 0.0975443473164489, 0.07065497617197566, 0.007229492341188671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35238757947017535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014822998514409601, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012074468446816422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.05209383699272445, 0.3312828215411196, 0.14636439202690826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011058522686470973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007128701647650959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36442075714851224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019377820149315656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.6201762417667, "coverage": 0.997401685671925, "baseline_score": 66.83550167366131, "spot_peer_score": 33.40780861869137, "peer_archived_score": 26.6201762417667, "baseline_archived_score": 66.83550167366131, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.40780861869137 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656602024.87387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656602024.87387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [zero-day exploit](https://usa.kaspersky.com/resource-center/definitions/zero-day-exploit) is one that takes advantage of a previously-unknown vulnerability in software or hardware that hackers are able to take advantage of. So far, 2021 has had the [largest number](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/23/1036140/2021-record-zero-day-hacks-reasons/) of zero-day attacks of any year to date, with costs often greater than $1M USD each." }, { "id": 10124, "title": "Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?", "short_title": "Breach of Online Identity Service in 2022", "url_title": "Breach of Online Identity Service in 2022", "slug": "breach-of-online-identity-service-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:31:45.616939Z", "published_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.268368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:23:00Z", 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"2023-01-01T21:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T21:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:31:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2022, amidst public backlash over privacy and security concerns, the IRS [backed off 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"histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2022, amidst public backlash over privacy and security concerns, the IRS [backed off plans](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/taxes/irs-to-back-off-third-party-facial-recognition-what-happens-to-id-me/) to require online users to verify their identity through ID.me. \n\nHowever, despite these concerns, online identity services are growing in popularity in response to the demand to cut down on fraud and identity theft online." }, { "id": 10122, "title": "Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?", "short_title": "Cyberattack in 2022 Causes $10B in Damage", "url_title": "Cyberattack in 2022 Causes $10B in Damage", "slug": "cyberattack-in-2022-causes-10b-in-damage", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": 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1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10122, "title": "Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:27:38.955218Z", "open_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-20T01:02:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-20T01:02:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T17:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:27:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cyberattacks can come with a high price tag. Perhaps the most expensive cyberattack in history was NotPetya -- rumored to cost some [$10 billion in damages](https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/) all told. \n\nCosts from an attack can include ransomware payments, mitigation costs, legal settlements, and more.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the most destructive cyberattack occuring between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023 has a total cost greater than $10 billion USD. \n\nIf a number of companies are targeted by the same type of attack by the same hacker or group within a 24 hour period, then this will count as a singular attack. If the attacks are not of the same type, are not issued by the same group or individual, or the attacks occur across a larger than 24-hour period, then those attacks will not count as a singular unit. If the attacks are of the same type, come from the same attacker, but are spread out over more than a 24-hour period, then only the attacks occurring within the 24-hour period will count toward resolution. \n\nThis question will be based on public reporting as of January 1, 2023. If the nature of a potential attack or cost of the impact is unclear, Metaculus Admins may consult additional information available by March 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10122, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485267.214381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485267.214381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04663207889603339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.119894582915967, 0.6773218626752956, 0.7258280204956697, 1.7113951340261195, 0.5588609158724307, 0.24417376290022857, 0.011180043889456084, 0.2171812226719096, 0.24484609769994412, 0.36389359640823554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12673119260075266, 0.32817362725520893, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.11608931509631863, 0.04651116301401622, 0.0, 0.19113110653601734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.02214264978065527, 0.017101445461516773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05440657924985089, 0.0, 0.012956624713270975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014925286850224059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03550386479693625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07323387050617254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.002292301674078456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06645500596732509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0490743809829292 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.211152190869019, "coverage": 0.9982784481027657, "baseline_score": 69.63182902406905, "spot_peer_score": 21.238195241846377, "peer_archived_score": 15.211152190869019, "baseline_archived_score": 69.63182902406905, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.238195241846377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485267.230269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485267.230269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cyberattacks can come with a high price tag. Perhaps the most expensive cyberattack in history was NotPetya -- rumored to cost some [$10 billion in damages](https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/) all told. \n\nCosts from an attack can include ransomware payments, mitigation costs, legal settlements, and more." }, { "id": 10121, "title": "Will Russia purposely disconnect from the global Internet for national security reasons before 2023?", "short_title": "Russia Disconnects From Internet by 2023", "url_title": "Russia Disconnects From Internet by 2023", "slug": "russia-disconnects-from-internet-by-2023", "author_id": 115250, "author_username": "bte", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:27:00.838966Z", "published_at": "2022-03-09T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.117539Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-09T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-16T16:45:00Z", 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"2022-03-04T20:27:00.838966Z", "open_time": "2022-03-09T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-09T18:11:01.082282Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-09T18:11:01.082282Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-11T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-16T16:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-16T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-11T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-16T16:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Self-imposed digital isolation as a policy and political tool was mentioned as a wild ambition of the Russian Federation [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/03/21/65940/russia-wants-to-cut-itself-off-from-the-global-internet-heres-what-that-really-means/) in early 2019 following a government crackdown on political demonstrations that received a lot of negative press in the West. In June and July of 2021, the Russian government reported they had executed multiple successful tests of a new emergency protocol for disconnecting the country entirely from the global internet. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-disconnected-global-internet-tests-rbc-daily-2021-07-22/):\n\n\"Russia adopted legislation, known as the \"sovereign internet\" law, in late 2019 that seeks to shield the country from being cut off from foreign infrastructure, in answer to what Russia called the \"aggressive nature\" of the United States' national cyber security strategy.\"\n\nIt is unclear how long the 2021 tests lasted, but multiple government, military, and telecom sources confirmed the capability and it's successful real world testing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if multiple independent sources confirm that the Russian Federation has purposely and completely severed Internet communication in both directions before January 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647444979.785898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647444979.785898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1936247833672508 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.549608659061399, 0.15947757669074697, 0.3863330208685259, 1.144613242278312e-05, 1.7723952756292307, 0.6679823782704826, 0.9798628177538132, 1.835083664953236, 1.8384953413530316, 2.7998933869596425, 1.001890826493585, 0.38637030551600987, 2.328239273092205, 0.3725201105392163, 0.8796192666787495, 1.7979632129355871, 0.07276651766113627, 0.3006192717802121, 0.010531849886926981, 1.6829456738807997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6572579480023213, 0.0019505033097109068, 1.69008046488055, 0.000405556777422191, 1.4096320149402404, 0.1326568560831874, 0.0, 1.058242616087691, 0.0, 0.0022406952106093373, 0.4029028527416031, 0.025912414274240906, 0.19996797688199303, 0.000555045232700614, 0.00020777164887697557, 0.0032512654729366713, 0.0, 0.06313135838115413, 0.013128249041123984, 0.08810530805494475, 1.791121344184563e-05, 0.0, 0.0005991225691496448, 2.2064956951134573e-05, 0.0003564368032020162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4342261850753952, 0.0, 6.765322020956107e-07, 0.0, 0.9116148371522783, 0.34641036078490484, 0.0, 0.0256749721286628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06736353922474986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.780907332298429, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2153246055244246e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004604780271447744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7619088451824558e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31233871438312344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2914156204336405, 0.0, 4.4709293672222886e-07 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647444979.829122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647444979.829122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 244, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8961364575703213, 0.10386354242967864 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 385, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Self-imposed digital isolation as a policy and political tool was mentioned as a wild ambition of the Russian Federation [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/03/21/65940/russia-wants-to-cut-itself-off-from-the-global-internet-heres-what-that-really-means/) in early 2019 following a government crackdown on political demonstrations that received a lot of negative press in the West. In June and July of 2021, the Russian government reported they had executed multiple successful tests of a new emergency protocol for disconnecting the country entirely from the global internet. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-disconnected-global-internet-tests-rbc-daily-2021-07-22/):\n\n\"Russia adopted legislation, known as the \"sovereign internet\" law, in late 2019 that seeks to shield the country from being cut off from foreign infrastructure, in answer to what Russia called the \"aggressive nature\" of the United States' national cyber security strategy.\"\n\nIt is unclear how long the 2021 tests lasted, but multiple government, military, and telecom sources confirmed the capability and it's successful real world testing." }, { "id": 10120, "title": "Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?", "short_title": "1+ Deaths From Cyberattacks in 2022", "url_title": "1+ Deaths From Cyberattacks in 2022", "slug": "1-deaths-from-cyberattacks-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:26:04.378381Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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}, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, there have been [several deaths](https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/27/22696097/hospital-ransomware-cyberattack-death-rates-patients) publicly attributed to cyberattacks --owing, for example, to the closure of hospitals that resulted in delayed access to treatment or a failure of monitoring systems that prevented life-saving interventions. In September, 2021 a [baby lost its life](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ransomware-hackers-hospital-first-alleged-death-11633008116) due to a cyberattack on a hospital in Alabama. A lawsuit by the child's family claims that the cyberattack led medical staff to miss vital signs in the baby's declining health which could have been caught and alleviated without damage to the hospital's internal systems and computers.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if one or more people die from the direct, first-order causes of a cyberattack reported between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023. \"first-order causes of death\" include but are not limited to failure of power supply, therapeutic devices, moving vehicles, or automated ingredient mixing.\n\nSecond-order deaths include delayed or rerouted ambulances, slower hospital response times, or machine failures that are not directly preserving life (for example, a failed ventilator will be considered first order whereas a failed heartbeat monitoring device will be considered second order.)\n\nIf an event fitting these resolution criteria is reported in 2022 for an earlier time frame outside of the range of this question, it will still count toward a positive resolution. \n\nResolution will come from the individual reports of at least five reputable and popular news sources, or from official statements by the institution(s) affected (if applicable). \n\nThis question will consider any first-order loss of life attributable to a cyberattack anywhere in the world or in space.\n\nFinal determination of first and second-order attribution is at the discretion of the Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672507713.536279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672507713.536279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.16477787258337706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.683148862572289, 0.6023711750829528, 0.0, 0.02650642005212003, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.888177587388698, 0.0, 0.5060368694271589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6249752706799355, 0.5498121564684187, 0.0, 1.1432128976064517, 0.5391388132444976, 0.4380198073063507, 0.0, 0.176308467386849, 0.0, 0.2785879388871889, 0.0, 0.014742156022549508, 0.651746972679256, 0.18616056073700932, 0.9367183377327922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16022467856500222, 0.0, 0.29504092444963936, 0.06190426115630072, 0.11036964111932797, 0.03607169459898251, 0.7672464128916316, 0.3935570848773425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21838859688911758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08332611069851885, 0.0, 0.04039659446984174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022232047570948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10066260077593363, 0.025194092214829794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09166238998882277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003409649605783329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012543399915659996 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.874765292979525, "coverage": 0.9990397240175166, "baseline_score": 35.49952816505768, "spot_peer_score": 38.06961368412296, "peer_archived_score": 21.874765292979525, "baseline_archived_score": 35.49952816505768, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.06961368412296 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672507713.55348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672507713.55348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9660571530376324, 0.033942846962367594 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 130, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, there have been [several deaths](https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/27/22696097/hospital-ransomware-cyberattack-death-rates-patients) publicly attributed to cyberattacks --owing, for example, to the closure of hospitals that resulted in delayed access to treatment or a failure of monitoring systems that prevented life-saving interventions. In September, 2021 a [baby lost its life](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ransomware-hackers-hospital-first-alleged-death-11633008116) due to a cyberattack on a hospital in Alabama. 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Supply chain attacks can be highly impactful because they target a single product or process that is widely used downstream.", "resolution_criteria": "To resolve “yes,” the penetrated supplier must have over one thousand customers and the discovery must be by a customer or a third party, not the supplier.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, only the proprietary software of publicly traded entities will count toward resolution. 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[Some experts]( https://www.crn.com/slide-shows/cloud/the-10-biggest-cloud-outages-of-2021-so-far-) expect cloud outages to increase in frequency but less in severity/impact moving forward.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if one of the top 5 major cloud services fails to provide service for a period of at least 8 hours at least once between March 8, 2022 to March 8, 2023\n\nFor this question, The \"top 5 cloud services\" are:\n\n- Amazon Web Service\n\n- ServerSpace\n\n- Microsoft Azure\n\n- Google Cloud Platform and \n\n- IBM Cloud Services\n\nFailure to provide service can be defined as a period when cloud services are unavailable to end-users and customers such that some customers and end-users are unable to access cloud-based apps or data. \n\nThe outage may occur for any reason – malicious cyberattacks or ransomware, misconfiguration of networks or software, or a bug.\n\nIf an outage is reported outside of the 365 day period, but the outage itself occurred within the 365 day period, then that outage will count toward resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10118, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672475766.84802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672475766.84802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.35510564150731155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03765850406993994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0545113339298824, 0.0, 0.45690223472128544, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.66598765116055, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.4573391763706963, 0.07889090770323962, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8614998454466418, 0.29683892709897775, 1.602620131865737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7015067435694731, 0.0, 0.3862084272492791, 0.7396417846986983, 0.5752836315107467, 0.3542447088992047, 0.0, 0.5717950707200458, 0.1727245143236413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0463598659142999, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10174724821728472, 0.15207970849988256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13717490894663273, 0.0, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04171983066671895 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672475766.86836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672475766.86836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7725811938273242, 0.22741880617267582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As companies and individuals increasingly rely on the cloud to store their data and power their various processes, cloud outages impact more people more significantly than ever before. [Some experts]( https://www.crn.com/slide-shows/cloud/the-10-biggest-cloud-outages-of-2021-so-far-) expect cloud outages to increase in frequency but less in severity/impact moving forward." }, { "id": 10117, "title": "Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Major Log4J Exploitation by Sep 2022", "url_title": "Major Log4J Exploitation by Sep 2022", "slug": "major-log4j-exploitation-by-sep-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:18:00.563958Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.318070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T19:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-24T19:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-22T12:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-22T12:28:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10117, "title": "Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:18:00.563958Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-09T22:04:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-09T22:04:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-10-22T12:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-22T12:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-22T12:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-24T19:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T19:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late 2021, a serious vulnerability in a widely used piece of software -- [Log4j](https://www.microsoft.com/security/blog/2021/12/11/guidance-for-preventing-detecting-and-hunting-for-cve-2021-44228-log4j-2-exploitation/) -- was identified. A [patch](https://www.zdnet.com/article/apache-releases-new-2-17-0-patch-for-log4j-to-solve-denial-of-service-vulnerability/) was created, and the vulnerability was disclosed to the public with instructions to update their systems. Unfortunately, in doing so, opportunistic hackers realized that many people would delay in deploying the patches. While some entities have updated their software, it is believed that many are still running the version of Log4j with the serious vulnerability, leaving them broadly open to compromise.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between March 8, 2022 to September 1, 2022, a new cyberattack using the [Log4Shell exploit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log4Shell) causes at least $20 million in damages. This question will resolve based on publicly available information on September 1, 2022.\n\nWe will count an attack as \"new\" if a) the attack has not yet been publicly reported as of March 9, 2022 and b) the attack is not a continuation of a previous attack. We will consider an attack continuous if a) it is perpetrated against a company or entity that experienced an attack less than 48 hours prior by the same group or individual and b) the attack is of the same type as the original.\n\nBoth direct and indirect costs to the company or entity experiencing the attack will count toward the total amount of damages. Costs to external customers of the targeted company or entity will also count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656078391.217797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656078391.217797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2288967694274163 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1429887502433144, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.5112330025622585, 0.31805435433963325, 0.34641901621179005, 0.06190426115630072, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4271704288873495, 0.1572066883677779, 0.8961215903282655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15294136244236786, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8788427704533714, 0.6164065105464869, 0.012678038170596699, 0.0, 1.6753341382249634, 0.5882576745024191, 1.2088447400889875, 0.0, 0.02849461598813083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7179932866554632, 1.0, 0.028692548170273287, 0.19873086749700197, 0.2575373740337294, 0.0, 0.06559068668467154, 0.0012543399915659996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3532829346430149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4380198073063507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05025074089134997 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.840991969175072, "coverage": 0.9972401063860894, "baseline_score": 56.17320053452704, "spot_peer_score": 5.3160244222786295, "peer_archived_score": 9.840991969175072, "baseline_archived_score": 56.17320053452704, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.3160244222786295 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656078391.24931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656078391.24931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9168541861383814, 0.08314581386161853 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late 2021, a serious vulnerability in a widely used piece of software -- [Log4j](https://www.microsoft.com/security/blog/2021/12/11/guidance-for-preventing-detecting-and-hunting-for-cve-2021-44228-log4j-2-exploitation/) -- was identified. A [patch](https://www.zdnet.com/article/apache-releases-new-2-17-0-patch-for-log4j-to-solve-denial-of-service-vulnerability/) was created, and the vulnerability was disclosed to the public with instructions to update their systems. Unfortunately, in doing so, opportunistic hackers realized that many people would delay in deploying the patches. While some entities have updated their software, it is believed that many are still running the version of Log4j with the serious vulnerability, leaving them broadly open to compromise." }, { "id": 10116, "title": "Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?", "short_title": "US Cyberattack Against Russia by April 2022", "url_title": "US Cyberattack Against Russia by April 2022", "slug": "us-cyberattack-against-russia-by-april-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:16:19.663171Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.398506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-30T19:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10116, "title": "Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T20:16:19.663171Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-27T04:03:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-27T04:03:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-30T19:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-30T19:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Biden issued a warning on February 24 that \n\n\n\n> \"If Russia pursues cyberattacks against our companies, our critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond.\"\n\n\nWith a recent history or [current cyberattacks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/24/russia-cyberattacks-global/) occurring in Ukraine, and an earlier history of Russian-initiated cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure like in the case of [Colonial Pipeline in 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/colonial-pipeline-hack-claimed-russian-group-darkside-spurs-emergency-rcna878), it is possible that another attack will happen, prompting the US to respond in kind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if it is publicly reported by at least four reputable news sources, or the US government itself, that the the US launched a cyberattack against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies between January 1 and April 30 of 2022. \n\n\n\nMore information on known Russian cyber operators and units can be found [here](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11718#:~:text=Cyber%20analysts%20have%20referred%20to%20FSB%20hackers%20as%20Berserk%20Bear,information%20security%20and%20cyber%20operations.)\n\n\n\nThis question will resolved based on publicly available information on July 1, 2022 regarding the Jan 1 to Apr 30 time period. Any information released after July 1, 2022 will not count toward resolving this question.\n\n\n\nIn the case of sufficient ambiguity on the identity of the attackers or recipients of the attacks, additional sources and experts may be referenced. If no consensus is reached, then this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1651305867.658084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1651305867.658084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.08865671357723429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.348502636589929, 0.5541459864739142, 0.0, 1.139078520981359, 1.6294377315514579, 1.8141545824506544, 0.3484453881256503, 0.28395709464573055, 0.006275715278433752, 1.6450097630122555, 0.0, 0.4536955636316239, 0.11962429085393472, 0.315061308553531, 0.762931302792299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.017059162801949267, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7465158473947902, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34231508389551396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004800587348436423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.689813296195025, "coverage": 0.9939360997187838, "baseline_score": 67.20205871099523, "spot_peer_score": 16.598382255828277, "peer_archived_score": 14.689813296195025, "baseline_archived_score": 67.20205871099523, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.598382255828277 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1651305867.674383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1651305867.674383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9895900769046936, 0.0104099230953064 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Biden issued a warning on February 24 that \n\n\n\n> \"If Russia pursues cyberattacks against our companies, our critical infrastructure, we are prepared to respond.\"\n\n\nWith a recent history or [current cyberattacks](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/24/russia-cyberattacks-global/) occurring in Ukraine, and an earlier history of Russian-initiated cyberattacks against US critical infrastructure like in the case of [Colonial Pipeline in 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/colonial-pipeline-hack-claimed-russian-group-darkside-spurs-emergency-rcna878), it is possible that another attack will happen, prompting the US to respond in kind." } ] }
