Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4300
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4280", "results": [ { "id": 10111, "title": "Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "short_title": "Cyberattack on 2022 FIFA World Cup", "url_title": "Cyberattack on 2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "cyberattack-on-2022-fifa-world-cup", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:55:35.059312Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.399666Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-20T19:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-20T19:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:10:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10111, "title": "Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:55:35.059312Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-09T15:29:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-09T15:29:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T19:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-20T19:55:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-20T19:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ellie Burns at [TechMonitor reports](https://techmonitor.ai/techonology/hardware/from-wimbledon-to-rio-2016-olympics-as-hackers-move-the-goalposts-its-no-time-for-sports-heavy-hitters-to-pull-cyber-security-punches-4950451) that major global sporting events such as the Olympics and World Cup have frequently been targets of major cyberattacks. [FIFA officials reported](https://apnews.com/article/37126ec376004506954374894d1fdb60) that they were hacked in 2018 and 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n1. There is a successful cyberattack on FIFA's systems or physical infrastructure supporting the 2022 World Cup.\n\n2. The incident must occur between November 21, 2022 to December 18, 2022.\n\n3. The targeted system must be unavailable or unusable for at least one hour.\n\n4. The incident must be reported in at least two major U.S. media outlets and may be publicly reported by March 1, 2023.\n\n5. The intention behind the attack must be to prevent the ability of systems to function as necessary. For that purpose, resolution will not be triggered by [cyber espionage](https://www.vmware.com/topics/glossary/content/cyber-espionage.html) or by [data breaches](https://www.trendmicro.com/vinfo/us/security/definition/data-breach)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668958433.009916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2568960627642053 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668958433.009916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2568960627642053 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7431039372357947, 0.2568960627642053 ], "means": [ 0.2610824543916141 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7678522308604581, 0.053371327284007036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.450214462805517, 0.0, 1.45171874662985, 0.1130426062565061, 0.6683702162141048, 1.7043553152231135, 0.0040632505840785225, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.06360818494898646, 0.22705976028972114, 0.0, 0.5943536038612736, 0.07414832220695045, 0.0, 2.032299331426395, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6998793682025656, 1.0293527781263672, 0.051194937221626276, 0.0, 0.4734154982026405, 2.6187072009148133, 0.022614253091566634, 0.2453965896845887, 0.7513609248868253, 0.12276014564242488, 0.15972794168108254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.10487932907659522, 0.03010603556612766, 0.43782470350779906, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.423527380753796, "coverage": 0.998882150148487, "baseline_score": 63.242451942676915, "spot_peer_score": 20.95818952553006, "peer_archived_score": 18.423527380753796, "baseline_archived_score": 63.242451942676915, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.95818952553006 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668958433.04101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668958433.04101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.887077692945605, 0.11292230705439495 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ellie Burns at [TechMonitor reports](https://techmonitor.ai/techonology/hardware/from-wimbledon-to-rio-2016-olympics-as-hackers-move-the-goalposts-its-no-time-for-sports-heavy-hitters-to-pull-cyber-security-punches-4950451) that major global sporting events such as the Olympics and World Cup have frequently been targets of major cyberattacks. [FIFA officials reported](https://apnews.com/article/37126ec376004506954374894d1fdb60) that they were hacked in 2018 and 2016." }, { "id": 10110, "title": "Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?", "short_title": "Cyberattack Triggers NATO Article 5 in 2022", "url_title": "Cyberattack Triggers NATO Article 5 in 2022", "slug": "cyberattack-triggers-nato-article-5-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:53:51.665146Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.730281Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:37:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10110, "title": "Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:53:51.665146Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-07T10:41:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-07T10:41:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T13:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T13:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:53:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T19:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has [claimed](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_168435.htm?selectedLocale=en) that a cyberattack of sufficient magnitude could trigger NATO's collective defense pact -- Article V. Thus far, Article V has not been invoked for a cyber-related reason, and it [is not clear](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nato-updating-common-defense-pact-deal-global-cyberattacks/story?id=78271735) what the threshold for invoking it would be.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, NATO Officially invokes Article 5 in response to a cyber action. Decisions by the Alliance are made unanimously. An individual NATO member may request Article 5 but that will not constitute the resolution of this question. \n\nThe cited action or action(s) must have a major cyber element. Additional or supplemental non-cyber effects do not invalidate the cyber element.\n\nResolution does **not** depend on NATO manifesting a response -- whether physical, diplomatic, or otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501502.635386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501502.635386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02002187268998708 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 20.875712124613468, 0.0860011530677823, 0.12914237266219483, 0.001278709657362659, 0.047612606726832554, 0.0006735119318073969, 0.046907461486836666, 0.0005320366584833881, 0.0931987443997151, 0.01133922326512752, 0.00031708124795599746, 0.005964448169358244, 0.003511332488513677, 0.0, 0.0015056695882334859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10217458920501772, 0.0, 0.013746709058106231, 0.009448457392497077, 0.003196099858940859, 0.15505973975269868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04523947490342972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010883848679857205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026923492397866564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007542642141517402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18049911240873864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.188664328349862, "coverage": 0.9997835876167821, "baseline_score": 97.4351362203023, "spot_peer_score": 8.829025776513825, "peer_archived_score": 9.188664328349862, "baseline_archived_score": 97.4351362203023, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.829025776513825 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501502.657705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501502.657705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has [claimed](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_168435.htm?selectedLocale=en) that a cyberattack of sufficient magnitude could trigger NATO's collective defense pact -- Article V. Thus far, Article V has not been invoked for a cyber-related reason, and it [is not clear](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nato-updating-common-defense-pact-deal-global-cyberattacks/story?id=78271735) what the threshold for invoking it would be." }, { "id": 10109, "title": "Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan in 2022", "url_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan in 2022", "slug": "chinese-cyberattack-on-taiwan-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:50:02.145985Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.468461Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:48:00Z", 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"2022-03-04T19:50:02.145985Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-13T17:46:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-13T17:46:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-31T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:48:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China -- which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory -- were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). Similarly, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has [warned](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/blinken-warns-chinas-increasingly-aggressive-actions-against-taiwan-2021-04-11/) that China has been taking \"increasingly aggressive actions\" towards Taiwan. \n\nAssistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will China make a successful cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if any of Taiwan's [16 critical infrastructure sectors](https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors) identified by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security are attacked by Chinese actors between March 8, 2022 to December 31, 2022.\n\nThe affected infrastructure must be physically located in Taiwan – that is, it may not simply be an asset owned by a Taiwanese national and located abroad. As such, the affected entity must be within 40 kilometers of the island to qualify. \n\nThe Attribution of the attack may be issued by the United States, a [Five Eyes nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes), or a NATO member; or by reputable cybersecurity companies or research organizations; or by at least three major news media outlets. Attribution must be formal – i.e. in an on-the-record speech or in writing. A publication that uses any phrases such as \"China is suspected,\" or \"China is possibly,\" or \"China is likely\" will not trigger resolution. \n\n\"Chinese actors\" can include state or non-state actors within China. To be acting within the Chinese mainland is to be considered within the state's internationally recognized land or naval borders. \n\nAt least one of the following conditions must be met regarding the severity of the attack:\n\n1. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $1 million direct property damage (excluding intellectual property).\n2. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $10 million of direct or indirect costs to the economy.\n3. The attack causes loss of an essential service (such as electricity, water, gas pumps) affecting at least 10,000 people for at least 1 week.\n4. The attack causes a sharp rise in price of essential goods (such as food or gasoline) by at least 50% for a community of at least 10,000 people.\n5. The attack is estimated to have caused at least 10 fatalities.\n\nThis question will resolve based on public information available by March 31, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485536.206966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015983645157271492 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485536.206966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015983645157271492 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.033589597299261725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.92684709017779, 1.1723601647715276, 0.22382433707016314, 0.006368581077564335, 0.19880631533687737, 0.6509558546780141, 0.28322519079520614, 0.15056000245065077, 0.09723778993698115, 0.18750657164149603, 0.15369479851735054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14353601294407614, 0.01827480948549526, 0.0, 0.20188607784499835, 0.0, 0.023593256606144208, 0.01243684794073061, 0.0, 0.00867947405568277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11181788461337815, 0.031420718929044314, 0.0, 0.0105604232385152, 0.0, 0.007845502359319072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019923756805303634, 0.0, 0.025628972875147066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016487993674209292, 0.001612177459443177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1886797762300747, 0.0, 0.01161693045818606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015897011254802272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031930000652666095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03530713865235783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037210857502350814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002466051579900863, 0.03421301874757442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.94301681400679, "coverage": 0.9990406251994389, "baseline_score": 66.31904226371803, "spot_peer_score": 20.730193144132723, "peer_archived_score": 15.94301681400679, "baseline_archived_score": 66.31904226371803, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.730193144132723 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485536.233769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485536.233769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China -- which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory -- were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). 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The US midterm elections will now be held in 2022 and it remains to be seen whether foreign interference from Russia will take place.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by May 31, 2023 a report is published that makes all three of the following claims:\n\n1. That Russian actors attempted (successfully or not) to influence the [2022 US midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections), \n\n2. That the agents, directors, or financial supporters of the campaign are Russian actors (state or non-state).\n\n3. 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The US midterm elections will now be held in 2022 and it remains to be seen whether foreign interference from Russia will take place." }, { "id": 10107, "title": "Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?", "short_title": "North Korean Internet Failures By Aug 1", "url_title": "North Korean Internet Failures By Aug 1", "slug": "north-korean-internet-failures-by-aug-1", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:42:38.826936Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.125743Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-01T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-01T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-07T19:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-07T19:08:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1445, "type": "tournament", "name": "White Hat Cyber", "slug": "white-hat", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/pexels-tima-miroshnichenko-5380642_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-04T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-06-20T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-01T00:25:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 10107, "title": "Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:42:38.826936Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-11T15:55:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-11T15:55:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-07T19:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-07T19:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-07T19:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-01T18:41:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-01T18:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Though North Korea's internet infrastructure is limited, the country's hackers have a reputation for aggressive cyber operations against other countries -- actions which have threatened or conducted operations in retaliation. Public reporting indicates that the entirety of [North Korea's internet has gone offline](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorean-internet-downed-by-suspected-cyber-attacks-researchers-2022-01-26/) twice in the first month of 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if North Korea has internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 to August 1, 2022 for a period of at least one hour. For the purposes of this question, an \"Internet Failure\" will be defined as the unavailability for at least 50% of North Korean users of any critical layer of [TCP/IP networks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_protocol_suite) supporting the world wide web or email.\n\nThis question will resolve according to credible media reports. Reports may be published between March 8, 2022 to October 1, 2022, so long as the internet failure reported had begun before August 1.\n\nTo reduce ambiguity, we will count calendar days in North Korea during which there is an internet failure as defined above. If five separate 1 hour failures occur on the same day, only one of those failures will count. 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Public reporting indicates that the entirety of [North Korea's internet has gone offline](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorean-internet-downed-by-suspected-cyber-attacks-researchers-2022-01-26/) twice in the first month of 2022." }, { "id": 10106, "title": "Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?", "short_title": "4 REvil Gang Members in Prison on May 15", "url_title": "4 REvil Gang Members in Prison on May 15", "slug": "4-revil-gang-members-in-prison-on-may-15", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T19:40:18.174182Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.121006Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-15T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-15T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T23:18:00Z", 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This will resolve based on publicly available information on June 1, 2022.\n\nHouse arrest does not satisfy this question for resolution purposes. 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voting-related websites; and successfully gained unauthorized access to a U.S. media company’s computer network that, if not for successful FBI and victim company efforts to mitigate, would have provided the conspirators another vehicle to disseminate false claims after the election.\"\n\nAs part of the process to bring Kazemi and Kashian to justice, the [Rewards for Justice Program](https://rewardsforjustice.net/terrorist-rewards/seyyed-kazemi/) offered a reward of up to $10M US Dollars for information on Kazemi and his involvement in the cyber-attacks during the 2020 elections. They offered the same for [Kashian](https://rewardsforjustice.net/terrorist-rewards/sajjad-kashian/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the U.S Department of Justice, or at least three other reputable media outlets, report a payment having been made to an individual or individuals in direct relation to the Rewards for Justice program targeted at Kazemi and Kashian, two Iranian hackers charged for participating in a disinformation campaign during the 2020 elections. 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They offered the same for [Kashian](https://rewardsforjustice.net/terrorist-rewards/sajjad-kashian/)." }, { "id": 10094, "title": "Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Kyiv on June 1, 2022", "url_title": "Russia Controls Kyiv on June 1, 2022", "slug": "russia-controls-kyiv-on-june-1-2022", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-04T01:17:55.292612Z", "published_at": "2022-03-04T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.989862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-04T02:00:00Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-04T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 832, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10094, "title": "Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-04T01:17:55.292612Z", "open_time": "2022-03-04T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-04T06:56:35.696165Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-04T06:56:35.696165Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. 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Established in the aftermath of World War II.\n\nNATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. \n\n[Finland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland) maintained neutrality during the Cold War. But has since moved towards cooperation with NATO. For example by joining the [NATO Response Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Response_Force).\n\n[France 24 reports](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato)\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the status quo in traditionally non-aligned Finland and Sweden, ushering in an \"historic\" surge in support for NATO, \"exceptional\" arms exports and defiance to Moscow's demands.\n\n> Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out applying to join the NATO military alliance for the time being but the two countries have never been so close to taking the plunge, analysts say.\n\n> \"Anything is possible at the moment and the signal from NATO countries is that a membership application can be processed in a very short time-span,\" said Zebulon Carlander, defence analyst with the Society and Defence organisation in Sweden.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization and its membership has been ratified by member states.\n\n*[March 13, 2022: question edited, see changes in the fine print]*", "fine_print": "*Edit March 13 2022:\n\nChanged \"This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization\" to read \"This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the 1st of January 2024, declares that Finland has joined the organization **and its membership has been ratified by member states.\"***", "post_id": 10085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680618638.110424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 879, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680618638.110424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 879, 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3370, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/)\n\n----\n\n[NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an is an intergovernmental military alliance among 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. Established in the aftermath of World War II.\n\nNATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. \n\n[Finland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finland) maintained neutrality during the Cold War. But has since moved towards cooperation with NATO. For example by joining the [NATO Response Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Response_Force).\n\n[France 24 reports](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato)\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the status quo in traditionally non-aligned Finland and Sweden, ushering in an \"historic\" surge in support for NATO, \"exceptional\" arms exports and defiance to Moscow's demands.\n\n> Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out applying to join the NATO military alliance for the time being but the two countries have never been so close to taking the plunge, analysts say.\n\n> \"Anything is possible at the moment and the signal from NATO countries is that a membership application can be processed in a very short time-span,\" said Zebulon Carlander, defence analyst with the Society and Defence organisation in Sweden." }, { "id": 10084, "title": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "Swedish NATO Membership by 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Established in the aftermath of World War II.\n\nNATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. \n\n[Sweden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden) has since 1905 been at peace, maintaining an official policy of neutrality in foreign affairs. Sweden was formally neutral through both world wars and the Cold War, although Sweden has since 2009 openly moved towards cooperation with NATO.\n\n[France 24 reports](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato)\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the status quo in traditionally non-aligned Finland and Sweden, ushering in an \"historic\" surge in support for NATO, \"exceptional\" arms exports and defiance to Moscow's demands.\n\n> Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out applying to join the NATO military alliance for the time being but the two countries have never been so close to taking the plunge, analysts say.\n\n> \"Anything is possible at the moment and the signal from NATO countries is that a membership application can be processed in a very short time-span,\" said Zebulon Carlander, defence analyst with the Society and Defence organisation in Sweden.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if an official statement by NATO, issued before the January 1, 2024, declares that Sweden has joined NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703975102.669144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703975102.669144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01689848896520125 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.353359350215747, 29.01636946902745, 0.9724584896400749, 1.4827354360238885, 0.6425269509731664, 1.6895844569889666, 0.3814832812147424, 0.06927894645666947, 0.009435219325152336, 0.14968803274227477, 0.4163452136945506, 0.011870183134786326, 0.02549169705252856, 0.01641725727886841, 5.42218205615816e-07, 0.00852374569369412, 0.0427950527738095, 0.027007755013946116, 0.07670017186322037, 0.02522010923131131, 0.20925529416670105, 0.023159522330762315, 1.896874768847879e-05, 0.0, 0.016211632221045692, 0.647643015998906, 0.0023548158252530696, 0.04108351998107128, 0.0018339414435459903, 0.0, 0.02908940936655935, 0.0, 0.004208643919947632, 0.004735862061118534, 0.012866762534084093, 0.00980904490508262, 1.2582566888467446e-13, 1.7389548078297525e-05, 0.0, 0.0033597018010381443, 0.0474517737233736, 0.015114672654620393, 0.009929353495440735, 0.060466868535774786, 1.1772839724125719e-12, 0.006690674923410654, 0.005893404262239988, 0.013931930308654736, 0.0019462595279102547, 0.002483701606448362, 0.02364404002283182, 0.0043839645408576735, 0.01901975208469001, 2.3698014282433007e-06, 0.003995519030253739, 0.005393469550949373, 0.02279078306619468, 0.008330327128996125, 0.0, 8.152691027356676e-07, 0.014636717736659742, 0.0010336790972719262, 5.358379687058725e-05, 0.00024312311538330077, 0.0015089655302253494, 0.013550236778581772, 0.004563614102147725, 0.0035250451009799493, 0.0013293506686323678, 0.009935595891597362, 0.018413237752435592, 3.50831349000803e-05, 0.005973969070706229, 0.00552406317418816, 0.000984804849502843, 0.020154932083509883, 0.005718300674314199, 0.00017371545196542105, 0.0048405953083042194, 0.0074391049661359, 0.0007810727802019727, 0.008028348115769454, 0.004942562661678259, 0.0016572071913411493, 0.0005344692710670412, 0.006432274266529869, 2.885385488816992e-06, 1.1882328858312965e-09, 0.00044037735274078666, 0.00016056490721283196, 0.0065466576579962235, 0.0007811409823700515, 0.00015443578861601068, 0.000684256508931723, 9.873170799280344e-08, 0.007149510629217898, 0.002067549470472024, 0.0020860156012483394, 0.001184678952424063, 0.01556874650250058 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.388374636563949, "coverage": 0.9999643219635052, "baseline_score": -181.86156897477179, "spot_peer_score": 13.374585146703017, "peer_archived_score": 14.388374636563949, "baseline_archived_score": -181.86156897477179, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.374585146703017 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703975102.795608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703975102.795608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986370605750976, 0.0013629394249024187 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 55, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6492, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an is an intergovernmental military alliance among 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. 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Sweden was formally neutral through both world wars and the Cold War, although Sweden has since 2009 openly moved towards cooperation with NATO.\n\n[France 24 reports](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato)\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended the status quo in traditionally non-aligned Finland and Sweden, ushering in an \"historic\" surge in support for NATO, \"exceptional\" arms exports and defiance to Moscow's demands.\n\n> Stockholm and Helsinki have ruled out applying to join the NATO military alliance for the time being but the two countries have never been so close to taking the plunge, analysts say.\n\n> \"Anything is possible at the moment and the signal from NATO countries is that a membership application can be processed in a very short time-span,\" said Zebulon Carlander, defence analyst with the Society and Defence organisation in Sweden." }, { "id": 10081, "title": "Will Ukraine join the European 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the EU before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10043/ukraine-joins-eu-before-2030/)\n\n----\n\nFollowing the [Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Ukrainian President Zelensky [urged](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/ukraine-european-union-zelensky.html) the European Union to admit Ukraine as a member. Various [news](https://www.thenational.scot/news/19961538.ukraine-joined-eu-become-candidate-experts-lay-facts/) [outlets](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-european-union-membership.html)\n [have discussed](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083528087/ukraine-european-union) the prospect of Ukrainian membership in the European Union, voicing some degree of skepticism that it will happen in the near term.\n\n***Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine becomes a member state of the European Union at any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024. 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This caused a spike in emigration from Russia. Mediazona [reported](https://zona.media/article/2022/03/02/border) that some people have been interrogated upon leaving the country, which sometimes prevented them from flying out.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at least three reputable media publicly report that a significant additional fraction of the Russian civilian population (= at least an additional 2% of population excluding people in military, police, and national guard, e.g., males of the age of conscription would suffice) are either forbidden from leaving the country or that’s it is technically impossible to leave. 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This caused a spike in emigration from Russia. 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The [Siege of Chernihiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Chernihiv) is ongoing. \n\n[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Chernihiv):\n\n> [On Feb 24] The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city.\n\n> At 14:25 (UTC+2), the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had surrounded Chernihiv and was laying siege to the city.\n\n> On 26 February, Ukrainian forces claimed that they defeated a Russian force that attempted to take the city. Several Russian tanks were allegedly seized by Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian government also claims that Russian BM-21 Grad rockets had hit hospitals and kindergartens in Chernihiv, though this claim was not independently verified.\n\n> On 27 February, Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces damaged much of Chernihiv's city center with missiles, including the destruction of a historic cinema. Russian forces later claimed that they had completely blockaded the city. Ukrainian sources also claimed that on 27 February, 56 Tankers were destroyed by the Ukrainian Army, containing fuel for Russian military units.\n\n***Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Chernihiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. \n\nWe will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. \n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10057, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650658957.545476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 383, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650658957.545476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 383, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. Kharkiv has experienced major attacks in the last several days, [wounding dozens](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/kharkiv-rockets-shelling-russia-ukraine-war/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Kharkiv is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. \n\nWe will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions under the de facto control of the Russian military. \n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650754504.281505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650754504.281505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06655137911573283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.476893588652596, 6.101105054699083, 6.423570456623165, 3.597343690997568, 5.134955805043732, 0.5116883734988805, 0.5110096621611022, 1.2504185572095854, 0.139887858684047, 1.0008901066297888, 0.0, 0.20886130543153794, 0.02607306430017576, 0.754294056542269, 1.0920005459007474, 1.6151672405788657, 0.007773227963033085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6160173863447567, 9.131692448899151e-05, 1.0000114178007558, 8.711574965150837e-06, 0.02003628973093911, 0.0014402613242206555, 0.000196654567768871, 0.009998610847230834, 0.00032727416626612826, 0.0, 0.07258852880938091, 0.0, 0.00013228990683515754, 1.002263840073878, 0.009361839834311766, 0.004967659377071063, 1.2037244521350444e-05, 0.2098889815650314, 0.0004978015218347476, 0.0, 0.0202085066590889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3627029093879397, 9.11755291218756e-06, 0.0, 7.590179748767034e-06, 0.19800158143401958, 0.0, 0.06273941188259706, 0.0, 0.00021868849627244401, 3.354160270186616e-06, 4.9654617414745495e-06, 1.872587150989553e-06, 2.348677040260931e-06, 1.3534995141891886e-06, 0.0, 0.007511263941523132, 0.26066420426437986, 8.325149734017983e-06, 1.4555048799471356e-06, 9.503339932167562e-06, 0.0, 1.343282873144508e-07, 6.776318013115325e-06, 3.09120086823022e-07, 2.74055490010484e-06, 8.784954812263839e-07, 4.431332521024174e-05, 0.0, 6.243208064444075e-06, 6.168220612955424e-07, 1.119908642060917e-06, 1.1720817324961932e-06, 1.1572379876051137e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.167043184168681e-06, 4.753530432879566e-07, 1.4247903833993627e-09, 4.864959258381671e-09, 1.5368669627091464e-06, 4.197887893859647e-09, 1.3188392564142386e-06, 0.0, 1.1903776105503957e-08, 3.7487810242657744e-08, 4.2632870607066414e-07, 2.8266664621679955e-06, 1.1575631343596039e-06, 3.5210288451557854e-07, 6.612889253496354e-07, 1.2473115468004015e-07, 2.2657601209970432e-07, 1.114550414511705e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005156173245710244 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 58.560485851691524, "coverage": 0.9999654443668606, "baseline_score": 12.034909226029331, "spot_peer_score": 22.33996729031624, "peer_archived_score": 58.560485851691524, "baseline_archived_score": 12.034909226029331, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.33996729031624 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650754504.342364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650754504.342364, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1750, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities since its invasion began in February 2022. 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He is the chairman of the pro-Russia political organization [Ukrainian Choice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Choice) and an opponent of Ukraine joining the European Union. Some commentators have called him Putin's closest ally in Ukraine.”\n\n[The Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) could possibly lead to the installation of a puppet government or pro-Russian government in Ukraine. Thus we ask:\n\n***Will Medvedchuk become the president of Ukraine before 2024?***\n\nResolution will be based on reporting from reputable media sources. 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"open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-02T06:10:06.330879Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-02T06:10:06.330879Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-17T15:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-17T15:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:40:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-17T15:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28/world/ukraine-russia-war) in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine reports:\n\n> \"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for an international tribunal to investigate Russia for war crimes.\"\n\nAlso Lithuania’s prime minister, Ingrida Simonyte, told the [Washington Post](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb): \n\n> “What Putin is doing is just a murder and nothing else, and I hope he will be in The Hague.”\n\nThe International Criminal Court sits in the Hague and prosecutes individuals for the international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, [war crimes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crime#Definition) and the crime of aggression. Its prosecutor has announced that he will launch an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Vladimir Putin is charged by January 1, 2024 by the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague for any war crime in relation to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.\n\nWar crimes in this case will include any and all crimes that Vladimir Putin may commit during his offensive attack on Ukraine. This will include, but is not limited to, crimes against humanity, genocide, contempt of court, or the officially designated list of war crimes by the UN. \n\nThe UN lists for all crimes under the labels 'crimes against humanity' and 'war crimes' can be found [here](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/crimes-against-humanity.shtml) and [here](https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/war-crimes.shtml), respectively.\n\n_Edit March 2, 2022: The ICC announcing either an indictment or an arrest warrant is sufficient for positive resolution._\n\n> _According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court):_\n\n> _An individual is **indicted** when a Pre-Trial Chamber issues either an arrest warrant or a summons after it finds that \"there are reasonable grounds to believe that the person has committed a crime within the jurisdiction of the Court\"._\n\n> _An **arrest warrant** is issued where it appears necessary \"to ensure the 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"continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been requests for a [NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60576443). Commentators have warned that this risks a war between the US and Russia, the world's largest nuclear powers.\n\nUS Press Secretary Jen Psaki [told Axios on February 28, 2022](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) that a no-fly zone in Ukraine:\n\n> \"would require... implementation by the U.S. military\"\n\nPsaki continued:\n\n> \"That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us into a place where we're in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the president wants to do.\"\n\nDespite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's requests to NATO leaders that an NFZ be implemented, the NATO Secretary-General has [stated](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) that NATO does not intend to move into Ukraine:\n\n> \"We have no intentions of moving into Ukraine neither on the ground or in the airspace,\" NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told MSNBC on Monday. \"We have a responsibility to make sure that this doesn't spiral out of control that escalates even further into concern for full-fledged war in Europe involving NATO allies.\"\n\nThe UK also [appears reluctant](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) to support an NFZ:\n\nUK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has also ruled out the idea, saying that \"NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if NATO declares a No-Fly Zone over any part of Ukraine by December 31, 2022. \n\nThis question will be resolved based on a NATO government source or 5 reputable sources. No planes need to be shot down for this question to resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672511309.667841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 562, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672511309.667841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 562, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012410794695092238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 44.16621576408807, 0.40816524952847677, 0.25299254208118327, 0.14693580577436663, 0.41859683727227814, 0.06508915800688077, 0.13012805181251402, 0.004686413625674794, 0.004169759021253488, 0.07729582404762136, 1.9976602484842222e-06, 0.0017404080734229846, 0.0, 3.906013385501189e-08, 0.0010306294531243145, 0.009176821947050263, 0.001590574514184814, 0.0010869753350645753, 3.7408458452268165e-10, 0.017912204952493863, 0.006896682091831251, 0.17341967030702127, 6.774206664216672e-05, 0.0, 0.00010002990401935, 0.0, 0.0011856338442079817, 0.0004267155654437706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6174135023463826e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.144782071872546e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5769568150825453e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025820112757933406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.309491773794125e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3998293955196089e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.051931143755562, "coverage": 0.9999103844781396, "baseline_score": 96.59991744780729, "spot_peer_score": 3.5766908520269056, "peer_archived_score": 5.051931143755562, "baseline_archived_score": 96.59991744780729, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5766908520269056 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672511309.721195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 562, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672511309.721195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 562, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1083, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been requests for a [NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60576443). Commentators have warned that this risks a war between the US and Russia, the world's largest nuclear powers.\n\nUS Press Secretary Jen Psaki [told Axios on February 28, 2022](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) that a no-fly zone in Ukraine:\n\n> \"would require... implementation by the U.S. military\"\n\nPsaki continued:\n\n> \"That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us into a place where we're in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the president wants to do.\"\n\nDespite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's requests to NATO leaders that an NFZ be implemented, the NATO Secretary-General has [stated](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) that NATO does not intend to move into Ukraine:\n\n> \"We have no intentions of moving into Ukraine neither on the ground or in the airspace,\" NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told MSNBC on Monday. \"We have a responsibility to make sure that this doesn't spiral out of control that escalates even further into concern for full-fledged war in Europe involving NATO allies.\"\n\nThe UK also [appears reluctant](https://www.axios.com/ukraine-no-fly-zone-zelensky-biden-russia-851f0309-902c-4215-b993-70cb042bf948.html) to support an NFZ:\n\nUK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has also ruled out the idea, saying that \"NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia.\"" }, { "id": 10051, "title": "Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?", "short_title": "US to sanction Russian oil/gas before 2023?", "url_title": "US to sanction Russian oil/gas before 2023?", "slug": "us-to-sanction-russian-oilgas-before-2023", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:34:14.547638Z", "published_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.219504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-08T18:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-08-31T23:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T23:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-08T18:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 236, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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"unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has issued a number of economic sanctions against top Russian officials and on Russian trade, focusing primarily on cutting off Russian financial institutions and access to global capital. However, the US has yet to target one of Russia's most key industries, their petro-energy sector. \n\nThe US currently [relies heavily](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2022/02/24/russia-is-united-states-top-source-of-imported-gasoline/?sh=2df9c8f1b184) on Russian gas and oil imports:\n\n> In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports, with Canada second at 17%. By value, Russian imports increased 71.05%, which is slightly less than gasoline imports from the world, which increased 80.53%. The Russian total was $12.78 billion.\n\nAn anonymous senior official at the White House [told Politico on Feb 24, 2022](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/russia-sanctions-ukraine-invasion-00011431) that:\n\n> \"'no option is off the table,' but 'starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.'\"\n\nThis question explores whether the US will reverse its decision to avoid sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the date when the United States sanctions on Russian oil or gas go into effect, in any form. These sanctions may be on the government of Russia or a Russian company, and do not need to apply to 100% of oil & gas products.\n\nResolution will be provided through at least three reputable news reports or an official announcement from the White House", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646857758.88606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646857758.88606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9837760927753504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.935363566830915e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2007635431809053e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008641869528873585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.157055458593243e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3911581366346e-05, 5.863484656072405e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.381210633117747e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 4.1144097661442645e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011131569195978018, 0.00017855227520491992, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6729297421399156e-06, 6.982343183757416e-06, 5.271481316458964e-06, 9.991761699471301e-05, 2.393667132245813e-05, 0.00011918048714059728, 5.899592792271533e-05, 0.0, 0.00012675972511453162, 3.4371467838986884e-05, 0.0012875168865094163, 0.0012074968753257723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013110085190716917, 0.21490201076437906, 1.459596123276402e-05, 0.00012555692613217524, 0.00016841194353725837, 0.0003182868822154603, 0.1892547050233941, 0.00026823542818293607, 0.000531176836652659, 0.00014137845310803785, 0.0006540072588910192, 0.00016728952096961363, 0.0, 9.945407431189015e-06, 0.0002237279701921537, 0.11044338633720167, 0.5097107105269897, 0.0, 0.0003849032352067304, 0.0016264911311931725, 0.4720487028663645, 1.1535797314244252, 0.8157230637760873, 0.04411590145441294, 29.68240764115017 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.37733377542510715, "coverage": 0.03592322795733022, "baseline_score": 2.0761411738869344, "spot_peer_score": -1.6945743161747013, "peer_archived_score": 0.37733377542510715, "baseline_archived_score": 2.0761411738869344, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6945743161747013 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646760284.062685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646760284.062685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10242584057399551, 0.8975741594260045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 465, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has issued a number of economic sanctions against top Russian officials and on Russian trade, focusing primarily on cutting off Russian financial institutions and access to global capital. However, the US has yet to target one of Russia's most key industries, their petro-energy sector. \n\nThe US currently [relies heavily](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2022/02/24/russia-is-united-states-top-source-of-imported-gasoline/?sh=2df9c8f1b184) on Russian gas and oil imports:\n\n> In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports, with Canada second at 17%. By value, Russian imports increased 71.05%, which is slightly less than gasoline imports from the world, which increased 80.53%. The Russian total was $12.78 billion.\n\nAn anonymous senior official at the White House [told Politico on Feb 24, 2022](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/russia-sanctions-ukraine-invasion-00011431) that:\n\n> \"'no option is off the table,' but 'starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit. And as we have said repeatedly on the record, on background [and] off the record, our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours.'\"\n\nThis question explores whether the US will reverse its decision to avoid sanctioning Russian oil and gas imports." }, { "id": 10050, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?", "short_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine", "url_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine", "slug": "bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia-ukraine", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:30:32.834683Z", "published_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.747272Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 142, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10050, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:30:32.834683Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-02T06:36:44.554391Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-02T06:36:44.554391Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T00:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10046/ukraine--russia-presidential-peace-talks/)\n\n* [If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/)\n\n----\n\nOn Feb 28, 2022 [Ukrainian and Russian officials started cease-fire talks on the Belarusian border](https://thehill.com/policy/international/596081-ceasefire-talks-begin-between-ukraine-russian-officials).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as **No** if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2023.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.\n\n*(See the edit history in the fine print below)*", "fine_print": "_Edit March 2, 2022: The resolution criterion regarding negative resolution \"if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days\" has been edited to read: \"if all the announced cease-fires in 2022 break down before lasting 30 days.\"_\n\n*Edit July 28, 2022 by casens: I added a clarification that the ceasefire must apply to all military operations, and that limited ceasefires are not sufficient.*", "post_id": 10050, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672673030.959774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 920, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672673030.959774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 920, 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"Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?", "short_title": "NATO Member to Call for Hungary's Expulsion", "url_title": "NATO Member to Call for Hungary's Expulsion", "slug": "nato-member-to-call-for-hungarys-expulsion", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:19:31.869895Z", "published_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.393983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T10:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T10:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 478, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10047, "title": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:19:31.869895Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-02T09:22:19.533770Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-02T09:22:19.533770Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T10:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T10:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T10:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-foreign-minister-peter-szijjarto-weapon-transit-ukraine/) reports:\n\n> \"Hungary will not allow the transit of lethal weapons to Ukraine through its territory.\"\n>[...]\n>\"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — who is facing a tough parliamentary election on April 3, 2022 — has insisted over the past days that his country must “stay out” of the conflict and that Hungary itself will not supply weapons to its neighbor.\"\n\nThough it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:\n\nShould the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if at least one head of state or head of government in a NATO member country calls for Hungary to be expelled from NATO, at any time from March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024. This does not need to occur through a formal legal process or through the invocation of Article 60(2).\n\nThis question will resolve based on reputable media reports.\n\n_Edit March 2, 2022: \"Senior government official\" has now been updated to read \"head of state or head of government.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10047, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948778.588997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948778.588997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.012377450882325444 ], "histogram": [ [ 27.14771959609565, 11.4243893545379, 0.5404928131608165, 0.7091815093914152, 0.4635710552755855, 0.23309593210260976, 0.13129506232669588, 0.12238395407362795, 0.005547589228477603, 0.3598123477130346, 0.40933480715071263, 0.0483528851086816, 0.04118672085931458, 0.010643211616306587, 0.0005285606148309117, 0.18512925939521005, 1.401645736329318e-07, 0.007725636157716774, 0.051262059025795434, 0.006746649423862155, 0.032472350603985484, 0.0021042170357292245, 0.0024291069697865678, 5.6562454807895885e-05, 0.008909368109046243, 0.028915486142273364, 7.841169560610904e-05, 0.0, 1.888485802457411e-05, 0.0, 0.0004215383730768969, 0.0, 0.0001587255321163459, 0.00797187545849759, 0.019863872207893495, 4.507785617050944e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010809502855451537, 0.0001078366925096218, 2.1929399391996007e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1305606728244874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021399400516814216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030855668603742028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023460412968987068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010112363761392979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03728979851233271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.560203076695408, "coverage": 0.9999957856686232, "baseline_score": 92.32877411922584, "spot_peer_score": 6.507389678604946, "peer_archived_score": 4.560203076695408, "baseline_archived_score": 92.32877411922584, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.507389678604946 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703948778.821741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703948778.821741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1099, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-foreign-minister-peter-szijjarto-weapon-transit-ukraine/) reports:\n\n> \"Hungary will not allow the transit of lethal weapons to Ukraine through its territory.\"\n>[...]\n>\"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — who is facing a tough parliamentary election on April 3, 2022 — has insisted over the past days that his country must “stay out” of the conflict and that Hungary itself will not supply weapons to its neighbor.\"\n\nThough it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:\n\nShould the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention." } ] }
