Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4320
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"relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10046, "title": "Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:05:39.105770Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-02T08:52:39.318649Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-02T08:52:39.318649Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/)\n\n* [Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10050/bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia--ukraine/)\n\n----\n\nAs [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) reports:\n\n> \"Officials from Russia and Ukraine ended peace talks on Monday (February, 28th, 2022) and will return to their respective capitals for further consultations before a second round of negotiations.\"\n\n Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin were not present at this first round of peace talks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\n\nDirect conversation between both Presidents could potentially lead to an increase in the likelihood of a ceasefire between the two states.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, at any time between March 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have a direct conversation with the intention to discuss a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (the conversation can take place in person, by phone, by video conference or similar), according to statements by both Ukranian and Russian governments, or according to at least three credible media sources.\n\nIf either of these men is no longer the president of his respective country, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIf they meet after a peace arrangement has been successuflly reached, or they meet during a ceasefire that is not directly for the purpose of this meeting, this will not count toward resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672527255.366264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 654, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672527255.366264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 654, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01459670081844677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 46.550440929849564, 1.0184920888005593, 0.17991061394386737, 0.08796070969566486, 1.0054791001622483, 0.0024088557918263602, 0.016739894455601444, 0.0017887960742230093, 8.643231249477656e-05, 0.12818796103759222, 0.00144829288484146, 0.050531495361760895, 0.0007695202942344845, 0.0, 0.20093322969054006, 0.0003022784648147259, 0.0001173612778046791, 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3.991536557981999e-06, 2.6665727314975482e-09, 0.0, 2.252164925796722e-06, 9.89482675278846e-07, 0.0006421338279039863, 1.5386086069957498e-05, 4.046467239673304e-06, 3.430152298735411e-09, 0.0, 2.991626509140258e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.343409841227399e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2072230316532336e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7247567963831075e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0850713428560946e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0108070178265875e-05, 7.052597958378479e-06, 0.0, 9.438755963322963e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.086512058575405, "coverage": 0.9999789065981737, "baseline_score": 67.26738691314405, "spot_peer_score": -26.899732595486764, "peer_archived_score": 26.086512058575405, "baseline_archived_score": 67.26738691314405, "spot_peer_archived_score": -26.899732595486764 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672527255.572294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 654, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672527255.572294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 654, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, when will they first meet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10262/ru-ua-peace-talks-with-presidents/)\n\n* [Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10050/bilateral-ceasefire-between-russia--ukraine/)\n\n----\n\nAs [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ukraine-complete-peace-talks-now-will-hold-second-round-2022-02-28/) reports:\n\n> \"Officials from Russia and Ukraine ended peace talks on Monday (February, 28th, 2022) and will return to their respective capitals for further consultations before a second round of negotiations.\"\n\n Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin were not present at this first round of peace talks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\n\nDirect conversation between both Presidents could potentially lead to an increase in the likelihood of a ceasefire between the two states." }, { "id": 10045, "title": "Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022", "url_title": "Russia Controls Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022", "slug": "russia-controls-vinnytsia-on-june-1-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10045, "title": "Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-03-02T00:03:29.125746Z", "open_time": "2022-03-02T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-02T07:24:56.287127Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-02T07:24:56.287127Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T23:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T23:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-22T23:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. Vinnytsia has experienced major attacks in the last several days, leaving [two servicemen dead](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3411349-two-servicemen-killed-25-people-injured-in-shelling-of-arms-depot-in-vinnytsia-region.html).\n\nThe city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Vinnytsia is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. \n\nWe will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. \n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10045, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665154.130552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665154.130552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02821140217879424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.13778547705354, 1.242005722822648, 1.780327780539201, 0.5670045495071137, 0.41026665282722213, 0.41448985937438154, 0.00010975131795946528, 0.06330392845758649, 0.00010125408645241286, 0.9072904752914982, 0.0, 0.30579369095476333, 0.0005782510123630713, 0.0001618174168164605, 6.0951185842067836e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042895428061126555, 0.0, 0.0003427697374278832, 0.0, 0.0022047679942313464, 1.0736153816125726, 0.2560733132196394, 7.437489313797611e-05, 0.0, 2.576586581541308e-05, 0.00046731583185065096, 0.0, 2.68841195312529e-05, 0.0, 5.788100402134212e-07, 0.02173414272403207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.466274728363215e-06, 0.00014573454134989746, 1.795483212050142e-05, 1.1625710434218412e-05, 0.000202122442069905, 3.845049173950376e-05, 5.032869405333274e-05, 5.2362612101090514e-05, 6.8027073820642364e-06, 0.0, 1.992294599866628e-06, 1.5733688144417923e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3187998111870823e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.789041440150752, "coverage": 0.9999827817384431, "baseline_score": 77.78622333733932, "spot_peer_score": -2.859121660842376, "peer_archived_score": 11.789041440150752, "baseline_archived_score": 77.78622333733932, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.859121660842376 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665154.175784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665154.175784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 236, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 704, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. 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Cherkasy has experienced major attacks in the last several days, resulting in at least [one death](https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/one-civilian-killed-by-russian-shelling-in-uman-cherkasy-oblast/). \n\nThe city lies in central Ukraine, and may face continued attacks by air and land as Russia continues to move forces further into Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Cherkasy is under Russian military control on June 1, 2022. \n\nWe will consider being under Russian control if more than 50% of the city's raions are under the de facto control of the Russian military. \n\nResolution will be sourced from reputable media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10044, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665179.407107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665179.407107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040200803924110684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.682406088990977, 3.297774649337478, 2.2762500608624006, 0.5251972685580132, 1.9243399081298946, 0.14408754493583084, 0.5689724012407479, 0.0298209872869988, 0.035276305234330015, 1.7030910113781634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004841757112336298, 0.00025898646391067496, 0.00019578397751432685, 0.001379031689710973, 5.1470184155463516e-05, 0.0003352949410707792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013896740057852772, 0.0, 0.9097856924431692, 0.0, 0.0, 1.100992089652888, 0.0, 1.711546048802416e-05, 0.0, 0.04835066575315973, 0.0, 0.000242460091778169, 0.0, 0.0, 4.346493784035689e-05, 9.973201393780336e-06, 0.0, 0.0003607030566545337, 2.7831472890891334e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013991046629723713, 6.575927264760345e-05, 0.0, 1.7981421673524933e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2473150654655808e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.8559748354720425e-06, 2.5625495774546096e-06, 8.046382610102186e-05, 0.0, 1.3893463134117398e-05, 1.6796930558682817e-05, 4.021445815773598e-05, 0.0, 5.381958417559133e-05, 0.0, 1.2954547355952133e-05, 0.0, 4.695262243640075e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 6.96573195092027e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1168961612409767e-05, 3.1012444478622813e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1937154489148329e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.534306984345419e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.375830105147518, "coverage": 0.9999380340196393, "baseline_score": 61.741239057556044, "spot_peer_score": 25.071521879091062, "peer_archived_score": 28.375830105147518, "baseline_archived_score": 61.741239057556044, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.071521879091062 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650665179.441033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650665179.441033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 795, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia has continued shelling attacks against a number of Ukrainian cities. 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However, to admit a country into the EU requires an unanimous vote by the 27 countries already within the Union, something that may be difficult to complete as members worry about the expansion of the bloc. \n\nDespite contrasting opinions, a number of other Eastern European countries are pushing for the expedited admission of Ukraine to the EU. \n\n> \"The presidents of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia called on the EU to give Ukraine the “highest political support” and “enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine … EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.” In an interview with POLITICO on Sunday, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Eduard Heger argued that Ukraine should be granted a “special track” toward the EU.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If Ukraine is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between March 1, 2022 to Jaunary 1, 2030. 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I’m sure it’s fair. I’m sure it’s possible.”\n\nThis application came one day after the European Commission President proclaimed that Ukraine belonged in the European Union. 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"2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:51:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of January 2021, \n\n\"The United States and Russia have finalised an agreement to [extend until 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/3/us-extends-strategic-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-russia) a treaty limiting their stockpiles of nuclear weapons.\n\"The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START Treaty), which was due to expire on Friday, imposes limits on Russian and US intercontinental missiles and bombers, but does not cover new types of weapons.\"\n\n\nBeginning in 2011, the New START Treaty required that both the US and Russia meet a set aggregate limit for the number of deployed and non-deployed nuclear weapons.\n\nBoth countries met the [central limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) of the New START Treaty by February 5, 2018, and have stayed at or below them ever since. Those limits are:\n\n- 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;\n\n- 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);\n\n- 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.\n\n\nHowever, on February 27, 2022, Putin [threatened the use of nuclear weapons](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-puts-russia-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-ukraine) if any Western countries intervened militarily in Ukraine. \n\n> \"Putin has told foreign countries not to interfere in his invasion of Ukraine, saying it could lead to “consequences they have never seen”. He has positioned anti-air missiles and other advanced missile systems in Belarus and deployed his fleet to the Black Sea in an effort to prevent a western intervention in Ukraine.\n\"On the same day, the government in Belarus claimed that a referendum had approved constitutional changes, revoking its neutrality and its nuclear-free status. The changes would allow Russia to station nuclear weapons on Belarus territory.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the Russian government formally announces that it will withdraw from the New START Treaty as defined in 2021 before January 1, 2023. \n\nIf Russia violates the agreement by stockpiling more weapons that allowed, or by deploying more weapons that agreed upon, but does not announce its withdrawal from the treaty, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement of a threat to withdraw unless certain actions are performed by the West or the US will not trigger resolution. \n\nResolution will be sourced from a direct announcement from the Russian government or President Vladimir Putin, or from at least 5 reputable news sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529707.766676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529707.766676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02141149169288978 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 27.15916831170677, 0.6287184581308275, 0.5637556967056847, 0.08819383821641599, 0.4783554966067542, 0.018647218674691657, 0.01910156383401717, 0.04120047081655121, 0.05472116934112085, 0.3223209148361521, 0.025210021240833227, 0.11725851361910691, 0.00701268348730979, 0.014700632724593442, 0.03594840653118629, 0.0003612957980577653, 6.562863624667817e-07, 0.009682781057938985, 9.731477822869733e-05, 0.003645970308242174, 0.00025275585952020004, 0.0036092102246854533, 0.07635298441259972, 1.1351692255890766e-05, 0.0049053850680570565, 0.0, 0.0028687217069257183, 0.10478709634446881, 0.0, 0.635951158859775, 8.080322801472192e-06, 0.00047032079207459237, 7.197394937648266e-06, 0.011529379698665977, 0.0, 0.00037389361573252435, 5.984687002783647e-05, 3.323639082384384e-05, 0.0, 0.0005546053912738946, 0.0017615937806480532, 5.5832691917956665e-06, 0.0, 0.0001572589305817857, 1.557661297110899e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7094838777440923e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012863861825059122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011098082428624026, 1.0863887394902633e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006988328130277556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.23734878047242, "coverage": 0.9999132218862726, "baseline_score": 82.66280725852802, "spot_peer_score": -55.22977381014065, "peer_archived_score": 16.23734878047242, "baseline_archived_score": 82.66280725852802, "spot_peer_archived_score": -55.22977381014065 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529707.795681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529707.795681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 255, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 690, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of January 2021, \n\n\"The United States and Russia have finalised an agreement to [extend until 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/3/us-extends-strategic-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-russia) a treaty limiting their stockpiles of nuclear weapons.\n\"The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START Treaty), which was due to expire on Friday, imposes limits on Russian and US intercontinental missiles and bombers, but does not cover new types of weapons.\"\n\n\nBeginning in 2011, the New START Treaty required that both the US and Russia meet a set aggregate limit for the number of deployed and non-deployed nuclear weapons.\n\nBoth countries met the [central limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) of the New START Treaty by February 5, 2018, and have stayed at or below them ever since. Those limits are:\n\n- 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;\n\n- 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);\n\n- 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.\n\n\nHowever, on February 27, 2022, Putin [threatened the use of nuclear weapons](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-puts-russia-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-ukraine) if any Western countries intervened militarily in Ukraine. \n\n> \"Putin has told foreign countries not to interfere in his invasion of Ukraine, saying it could lead to “consequences they have never seen”. He has positioned anti-air missiles and other advanced missile systems in Belarus and deployed his fleet to the Black Sea in an effort to prevent a western intervention in Ukraine.\n\"On the same day, the government in Belarus claimed that a referendum had approved constitutional changes, revoking its neutrality and its nuclear-free status. 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null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questons on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/) [resolved]\n\n----\n\nRecently, Google [banned Russian state-owned news agencies RT and Sputnik](https://twitter.com/googleeurope/status/1498572529409179648) across Europe. \n\nAdditionally, Roskomnadzor [partly blocked Facebook](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/25/22950874/russia-facebook-blocked-roskomnadzor-media-censorship), and Twitter [reported access issues in Russia](https://www.gizchina.com/2022/02/27/twitter-confirmed-problems-with-access-to-the-service-form-russia/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2022. 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\n\nAdditionally, Roskomnadzor [partly blocked Facebook](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/25/22950874/russia-facebook-blocked-roskomnadzor-media-censorship), and Twitter [reported access issues in Russia](https://www.gizchina.com/2022/02/27/twitter-confirmed-problems-with-access-to-the-service-form-russia/)." }, { "id": 10036, "title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and China be on the same side?", "short_title": "US-China Alliance in WW3 by 2060", "url_title": "US-China Alliance in WW3 by 2060", "slug": "us-china-alliance-in-ww3-by-2060", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-28T21:49:48.398066Z", "published_at": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.458628Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10036, "title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and China be on the same side?", "created_at": "2022-02-28T21:49:48.398066Z", "open_time": "2022-03-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-04T17:17:52.852063Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-04T17:17:52.852063Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In [World War 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [Beiyang government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beiyang_government) of China [played a limited role](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warlord_Era), but joined on the side of the [Allied Powers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allies_of_World_War_I), which included the United States.\n\nIn the [Second Sino-Japanese War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War), the Republic of China was invaded by Japan. After the [Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor), the United States [declared war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_declaration_of_war_on_Japan) on Japan, triggering the Axis powers in Europe to declare war on America, in solidarity with Japan. This had the effect of aligning China once again on the side of the Allied Powers, alongside the United States.\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will China and the United States once again be on the same side?", "resolution_criteria": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of China during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over Beijing prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of China is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** in the case that World War 3 does not occur before January 1, 2060. It will resolve as **Yes** if the governments of the United States and China are on the same side during that war, and will resolve as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10036, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750625202.684584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750625202.684584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0816173662408582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.8724869246261244, 0.5360155673601982, 1.3456967614104003, 0.03699453859459746, 3.4416720821157494, 2.2474900024316247, 0.9697894974840211, 0.8162538450316732, 0.38200126208034174, 1.4222324108813607, 0.0, 0.19794747439606547, 0.6457388334574979, 0.0, 0.17079110493013128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20054705302468365, 0.4738832267009508, 0.1267360632818173, 0.0, 0.4481969893635396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30035487117422893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06413312070665313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018683628185842587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03014318715320976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26696316960991257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286952.741189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286952.741189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9891558527372816, 0.010844147262718392 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In [World War 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [Beiyang government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beiyang_government) of China [played a limited role](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warlord_Era), but joined on the side of the [Allied Powers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allies_of_World_War_I), which included the United States.\n\nIn the [Second Sino-Japanese War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War), the Republic of China was invaded by Japan. After the [Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor), the United States [declared war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_declaration_of_war_on_Japan) on Japan, triggering the Axis powers in Europe to declare war on America, in solidarity with Japan. This had the effect of aligning China once again on the side of the Allied Powers, alongside the United States.\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will China and the United States once again be on the same side?" }, { "id": 10032, "title": "Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?", "short_title": "Chinese pressure on Taiwan's airspace", "url_title": "Chinese pressure on Taiwan's airspace", "slug": "chinese-pressure-on-taiwans-airspace", "author_id": 122704, "author_username": "andrewallen1.6180", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119426, "username": "havlickova.blanka" } ], "created_at": "2022-02-28T18:20:44.364787Z", "published_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.263813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 184, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10032, "title": "Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-28T18:20:44.364787Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-01T01:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-01T01:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 4, 2021, there were 56 Chinese warplanes that flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was largest incursion since the island first started reporting such activity in September 2020, as reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/chart/24620/chinese-military-aircraft-entering-taiwans-adiz/), based on information from Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. Whilst there has not been more aircraft on a single day, the high numbers of incursions have become a more persistent phenomenon.\n\n\nThis is a list of all days with more than 30 incursions, as of 28th February 2022:\n\n\n- October 1st 2021 - 38\n\n- October 2nd 2021 - 39\n\n- October 4th 2021 - 56\n\n- January 23rd 2022 - 39", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on any single day in 2022 the total number of aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) reported by R.O.C Ministry of National Defense exceeds 60 on a single day. \n\n\nResolution will be based on the daily *Air activities in the southwestern ADIZ of R.O.C.* (我西南空域空情動態) reports published by the R.O.C.'s Ministry of National Defense at [www.mnd.gov.tw](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF&Page=1).\n\n\nThis website is available in Chinese only. See our [tips](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cgnSiPv97y8Ftxp0XIGVweW-djO9R4MH3aC-SKx4KDg/edit?usp=sharing) for convenient ways of working with Chinese-language resources using machine translation. The PDF reports themselves are Chinese-English and should be usable without translation.\n\n\nEach report contains listing of types of aircraft detected with corresponding counts. Example from the Feb 28, 2022 report:\n\n\n> 一、日期 Date: \n\n> 中華民國 111 年 2 月 28 日（星期一 日間） \n\n> February 28,2022（Monday daytime） \n\n> 二、機型 Aircraft Type: \n\n> 運-8 反潛機 1 架次（One Y-8 ASW） \n\n> 殲-16 機 4 架次（Four J-16） \n\n> 殲-10 機 2 架次（Two J-10） \n\n\nTotal aircraft number of aircraft is computed by summing the numbers for all types of aircraft reported. In this case, it would be 1+4+2 = 7. If there are multiple reports for the same day (e.g. separate daytime and nighttime report), the numbers from these reports will be added up to form the total.\n\n\nThe ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s national airspace. Flying within the ADIZ means Taiwan will monitor and warn aircraft. Only those that cross the median line (shown on the MND reports) are reported since the ADIZ crosses into Chinese airspace", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672441086.703265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672441086.703265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05361306668700809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 18.907183875209867, 0.6456188729227526, 1.02974631753026, 0.7999724582149309, 2.15712028543255, 0.13494565018514804, 0.3018991095879472, 0.0, 0.0867943143706622, 0.036235745583739466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000717236700292134, 4.729487161849235e-05, 0.03610683415088518, 0.0, 0.0007758621240056002, 0.0, 0.04190479075184381, 0.3466815293753324, 0.011629312982059025, 0.011146386202476828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057411499904878836, 0.0, 0.00040158259899849413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008729670239053142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01625147271718099, 0.01785863825286157, 0.04008655928881358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003678608866185158, 0.0, 0.016826895617542095, 0.043965349910526225, 0.015240050019590277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024221138962303466, 0.0066001941023647245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001996837224469252, 0.0, 0.008314988254894786, 0.0, 0.008518371811435877, 0.0024422744286091915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004336786852592533, 0.012781266802968531, 0.02249157872316654, 0.009282483690729319, 0.022303294918430097, 0.0016234016654948257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0071162671568712945, 0.010502852656376674, 0.0054494958316215255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007552793060600101, 0.0006111024338828317, 0.006454510226877745, 0.00043781764433923086, 0.0009053205827132197, 0.006999657670531714, 0.005866423043912739, 0.0, 0.00015550565772273764, 0.0, 5.2860123581788815e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0360069808488607e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023206163730533122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6973523626942236 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 28.685470772100057, "coverage": 0.9999895896774943, "baseline_score": -6.193914390209376, "spot_peer_score": 5.0112655261015835, "peer_archived_score": 28.685470772100057, "baseline_archived_score": -6.193914390209376, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.0112655261015835 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672441086.737401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672441086.737401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 517, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 4, 2021, there were 56 Chinese warplanes that flew into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This was largest incursion since the island first started reporting such activity in September 2020, as reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/chart/24620/chinese-military-aircraft-entering-taiwans-adiz/), based on information from Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. Whilst there has not been more aircraft on a single day, the high numbers of incursions have become a more persistent phenomenon.\n\n\nThis is a list of all days with more than 30 incursions, as of 28th February 2022:\n\n\n- October 1st 2021 - 38\n\n- October 2nd 2021 - 39\n\n- October 4th 2021 - 56\n\n- January 23rd 2022 - 39" }, { "id": 10028, "title": "Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?", "short_title": "US Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2022 > 2021", "url_title": "US Supplemental Poverty Measure: 2022 > 2021", "slug": "us-supplemental-poverty-measure-2022-2021", "author_id": 120256, "author_username": "maxghenis", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-28T05:04:09.886696Z", "published_at": "2022-04-05T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.445878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-05T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-12T22:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-12T22:51:00Z", "open_time": "2022-04-05T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10028, "title": "Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?", "created_at": "2022-02-28T05:04:09.886696Z", "open_time": "2022-04-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-07T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-07T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-12T22:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-12T22:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-12T22:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics created the [Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)](https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/supplemental-poverty-measure.html) in the 2000s to address shortcomings of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM). Unlike the OPM, the SPM adjusts for in-kind benefits, tax liabilities, and local housing costs. For these reasons, [poverty researchers generally prefer the SPM over the OPM](https://www.vox.com/2015/9/16/9337041/supplemental-poverty-measure).\n\nThe Census Bureau typically reports the SPM and OPM each September, along with the Current Population Survey March Supplement data upon which they're both calculated. In September 2021, they reported the [2020 SPM as 9.1 percent](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-275.html), down from 11.8 percent in 2019.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the 2022 [Supplemental Poverty Measure](https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/supplemental-poverty-measure.html) exceeds its 2021 value. In each year from 2014 to 2021, the Census Bureau has reported the SPM between September 12 and October 14", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10028, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671724512.449305, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671724512.449305, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7519438367751717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2153195795988099, 0.8929389982591724, 0.07803584772168365, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.886562597825163, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.26985829399049166 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.541516355435812, "coverage": 0.9988155704673438, "baseline_score": 74.10497855411718, "spot_peer_score": 1.8286835367871799, "peer_archived_score": 13.541516355435812, "baseline_archived_score": 74.10497855411718, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8286835367871799 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672558605.094284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672558605.094284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24247471188923864, 0.7575252881107614 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics created the [Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)](https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/supplemental-poverty-measure.html) in the 2000s to address shortcomings of the Official Poverty Measure (OPM). Unlike the OPM, the SPM adjusts for in-kind benefits, tax liabilities, and local housing costs. For these reasons, [poverty researchers generally prefer the SPM over the OPM](https://www.vox.com/2015/9/16/9337041/supplemental-poverty-measure).\n\nThe Census Bureau typically reports the SPM and OPM each September, along with the Current Population Survey March Supplement data upon which they're both calculated. In September 2021, they reported the [2020 SPM as 9.1 percent](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-275.html), down from 11.8 percent in 2019." }, { "id": 10023, "title": "Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?", "short_title": "Successful ASAT Attack Against Adversary", "url_title": "Successful ASAT Attack Against Adversary", "slug": "successful-asat-attack-against-adversary", "author_id": 112479, "author_username": "evanbd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-27T18:51:39.164662Z", "published_at": "2022-11-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.074660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-11-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-11-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10023, "title": "Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-27T18:51:39.164662Z", "open_time": "2022-11-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-11-02T18:36:52.061218Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-11-02T18:36:52.061218Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon) are weapons that destroy or damage satellites in orbit. Several of these have been developed and [tested](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7644/asat-weapons-tests-and-space-debris-by-2023/). However, they have not been used in warfare.\n\nASAT weapons in warfare have a variety of uses, including disrupting communications, reconnaissance, and navigation systems. Development and deployment of such systems continues, and has been called an [emerging arms race](https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/).\n\nRecently, Russia has [threatened](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/russia-threatens-a-retaliatory-strike-against-us-commercial-satellites/) to use such weapons in relation to the war in Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a consensus of [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports a state actor has used an ASAT weapon to damage a manmade orbital target which that state does not own before January 1, 2024, without the permission of the owner of the manmade orbital target. The damage must be physical, cyberattacks do not qualify", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989325.051346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989325.051346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03008833317237642 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.159575798350438, 5.212279578409062, 0.7015475701704319, 0.4930781973811814, 0.3181209564472022, 0.11042144459211649, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.07311259172428256, 0.5038673281235292, 0.2620930371054414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016179044804938477, 0.048197615361968704, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001218877601747685, 0.32103930690399796, 0.05555749469391477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40980137363233565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018298562410600412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004176477489548196, 0.014120898442794603, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.771454824108142, "coverage": 0.9998889867853381, "baseline_score": 83.97908593690254, "spot_peer_score": 31.656973370051855, "peer_archived_score": 13.771454824108142, "baseline_archived_score": 83.97908593690254, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.656973370051855 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989325.081166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989325.081166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon) are weapons that destroy or damage satellites in orbit. Several of these have been developed and [tested](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7644/asat-weapons-tests-and-space-debris-by-2023/). However, they have not been used in warfare.\n\nASAT weapons in warfare have a variety of uses, including disrupting communications, reconnaissance, and navigation systems. Development and deployment of such systems continues, and has been called an [emerging arms race](https://hir.harvard.edu/anti-satellite-weapons-and-the-emerging-space-arms-race/).\n\nRecently, Russia has [threatened](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/russia-threatens-a-retaliatory-strike-against-us-commercial-satellites/) to use such weapons in relation to the war in Ukraine." }, { "id": 10021, "title": "Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Cyberattack on EU or UK in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Cyberattack on EU or UK in 2022", "slug": "russian-cyberattack-on-eu-or-uk-in-2022", "author_id": 123188, "author_username": "papyrus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-27T14:06:11.358909Z", "published_at": "2022-03-05T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.886329Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-05T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, multiple cyberattacks on EU or UK administration and businesses occurred through multiple exploits.\n\n[Cyber Attacks and Data Breaches in Review: January 2022](https://www.itgovernance.eu/blog/en/cyber-attacks-and-data-breaches-in-review-january-2022)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the following conditions are met:\n\n1. At any time from February 25, 2022 to January 1, 2023, one or more cyberattacks successfully disrupt some part of the EU or UK critical infrastructure (electricity, water supply, heating, sewer systems, gas/oil/petrol processing and distribution, transportation and aviation, communications networks, medical care, security/defense/military, banking and financial infrastructure). The target of the attack may be publicly or privately owned or operated.\n2. The attack is attributed to hackers from the Russian government or sponsored by the Russian government, according to statements by the EU or UK government or EU official communications or UK intelligence agencies.\n3. At least one of the following conditions is met regarding the severity of the attack:\n 1. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $1 million direct property damage (excluding intellectual property).\n 2. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $10 million of direct or indirect costs to the economy.\n 3. The attack causes loss of an essential service (such as electricity, water, gas pumps) affecting at least 10,000 people for at least 1 week.\n 4. The attack causes a sharp rise in price of essential goods (such as food or gasoline) by at least 50% for a community of at least 10,000 people.\n 5. 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/)\n\n----\n\nWith [Ron DeSantis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis) running for his second term as Governor of Florida, he faces a potentially contentious fight for reelection. His positions on topics such as [coronavirus lockdowns](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/floridas-coronavirus-guidance-buck-cdc-83095797), [teaching critical race theory in schools](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-critical-race-theory-training-schools-corporate-america), and [his support of former President Donald Trump](https://www.aol.com/news/desantis-refuses-sides-trump-pence-184142920.html) have proved controversial. [Recent polling](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-desantis-favorite-for-re-election-despite-recent-controversies-poll/ar-AATTjJy) shows that he leads his most likely Democratic challenger, former Governor Charlie Crist by 8 points.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions will resolve as \"Yes\" if, on January 8th 2023, Ron DeSantis is sworn in for his second term as Governor of Florida.", "fine_print": "In the case that the inauguration is rescheduled or postponed, such as in the case of a recount, this question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Ron DeSantis is inaugurated for another term as Governor following the [2022 Florida Gubernatorial Election](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2022).", "post_id": 10020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667884813.612017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.9549643993053023 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667884813.612017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.9549643993053023 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0450356006946977, 0.9549643993053023 ], "means": [ 0.9467390699313584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005760640316816688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05844289739074164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21275070674403573, 0.03173415553620371, 0.0, 0.14236045497222857, 0.6162513914792582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010416673899746396, 0.019239360577882482, 0.1334252388040222, 0.6204495675749742, 0.18353319753873695, 0.0, 0.023949362943711243, 0.0023222647343838715, 0.9056998626033459, 0.11692664360729155, 0.6113214926053245, 1.1352010912359174, 0.7437125008964685, 3.4410302160788153, 0.907475441508012, 0.17088832808935564, 0.5012091563214645, 7.3155525497109615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.250084002986018, "coverage": 0.9996567057624145, "baseline_score": 85.3687066125532, "spot_peer_score": 7.5147647100840915, "peer_archived_score": 5.250084002986018, "baseline_archived_score": 85.3687066125532, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.5147647100840915 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667893199.167574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667893199.167574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.036849927910505675, 0.9631500720894943 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/)\n\n----\n\nWith [Ron DeSantis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis) running for his second term as Governor of Florida, he faces a potentially contentious fight for reelection. His positions on topics such as [coronavirus lockdowns](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/floridas-coronavirus-guidance-buck-cdc-83095797), [teaching critical race theory in schools](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-critical-race-theory-training-schools-corporate-america), and [his support of former President Donald Trump](https://www.aol.com/news/desantis-refuses-sides-trump-pence-184142920.html) have proved controversial. [Recent polling](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-desantis-favorite-for-re-election-despite-recent-controversies-poll/ar-AATTjJy) shows that he leads his most likely Democratic challenger, former Governor Charlie Crist by 8 points." }, { "id": 10008, "title": "Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?", "short_title": "Moldovan-Romanian union by 2025", "url_title": "Moldovan-Romanian union by 2025", "slug": "moldovan-romanian-union-by-2025", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T15:38:49.333633Z", "published_at": "2022-03-16T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.330330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-16T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-16T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10008, "title": "Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T15:38:49.333633Z", "open_time": "2022-03-16T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-17T21:50:52.939194Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-17T21:50:52.939194Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:28.797378Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Moldova and Romania speak the same language and [reunification has been a possibility since independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unification_of_Moldova_and_Romania#Impact_of_a_unification_scenario). This Jan 2022 [article](https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/assessing-a-possible-moldova-romania-unification/) quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.\n\nThat was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in both NATO and the EU, so by joining Romania, Moldova could essentially shortcut the membership requirements for both organisations at the cost of giving up sovereignty. This bargain looks a lot more attractive now that the perceived risk of Russian invasion is higher. I note Metaculus already has [a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9943/russia-recognize-transnistria-in-2022/) on whether Russia will recognise Moldova's breakaway region Transnistria this year.", "resolution_criteria": "Positive resolution will be based on an announcement of a union by both relevant governments, effective on or before 1st Jan 2025. Union here means that the two countries become one country. If Romania unites with Moldova but excludes Transnistria and/or Gagauzia then that still counts as a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution needs the union to be effective, not just announced. A union effective on midnight of the 31st Dec 2024 would count for positive resolution.\n\nThis question doesn't take a position on the form of the union - any constitutional arrangement counts so long as the resulting entity becomes one country, even if in practice the former-Romania and former-Moldova each separately have a lot of power to make laws, for example in a decentralised federation.", "post_id": 10008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968050.515316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968050.515316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04231477045375323 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.105759351652049, 9.409821282522467, 1.730638486845113, 0.5680153631204868, 0.0534602374008265, 0.40076029510900757, 0.2556394215095394, 0.6724001434316446, 0.1672090860538708, 0.01186814465719889, 0.38755828986183843, 0.006088032198199423, 3.665973220201602e-05, 0.00014419437783649112, 0.0003062831201733443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716126356448017, 0.04646443590117681, 0.4768809993090424, 0.0, 0.00276017533613222, 0.0004741114797025278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2809552962198676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020195075193606676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41725292962337807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005256262692885012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010307763444217315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26864328100745355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12144523217691683 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.20760452129878, "peer_score": 8.41218556985135, "coverage": 0.9998740827155616, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998740827155616, "spot_peer_score": 4.878683589037794, "spot_baseline_score": 74.84612330040356, "baseline_archived_score": 94.20760452129878, "peer_archived_score": 8.41218556985135, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.878683589037794, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 74.84612330040356 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008272.576225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008272.576225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Moldova and Romania speak the same language and [reunification has been a possibility since independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unification_of_Moldova_and_Romania#Impact_of_a_unification_scenario). This Jan 2022 [article](https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/assessing-a-possible-moldova-romania-unification/) quotes a poll finding 44% support in Moldova for union with Romania.\n\nThat was before Russia invaded Ukraine. Romania is in both NATO and the EU, so by joining Romania, Moldova could essentially shortcut the membership requirements for both organisations at the cost of giving up sovereignty. This bargain looks a lot more attractive now that the perceived risk of Russian invasion is higher. I note Metaculus already has [a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9943/russia-recognize-transnistria-in-2022/) on whether Russia will recognise Moldova's breakaway region Transnistria this year." }, { "id": 10005, "title": "Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?", "short_title": "Removal of Russia from UN Security Council", "url_title": "Removal of Russia from UN Security Council", "slug": "removal-of-russia-from-un-security-council", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T06:07:53.317956Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.302962Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"title": "Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T06:07:53.317956Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T19:33:09.385996Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T19:33:09.385996Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:06:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the Conversation summarizes in its article [Ukraine invasion: should Russia lose its seat on the UN Security Council?](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-should-russia-lose-its-seat-on-the-un-security-council-177870):\n\n> “The Security Council was established by the 1945 UN Charter and comprises 15 members. Ten rotating non-permanent countries are elected by the UN General Assembly to do a two-year term on the Security Council. Five members – the USSR (now Russia), Republic of China (now People’s Republic of China), the US, UK and France – have the status of permanent members and so have a veto on any vote before the Council.”\n\nArticle 23 of the UN Charter says that [the USSR, not Russia, is the permanent member](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-5) of the UN Security Council, as Ukraine’s ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, has suggested in February 2022. This could be used as an argument that Russia is not, in fact, a legitimate permanent member of the Security Council.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if between February 26, 2022 and December 31, 2023 the official website of the United Nations will include neither USSR, nor Russia among permanent members of its UN Security Council. \n\nIn the case that the UN Security Council ceases to function or the role of permanent members of the UN Security Council no longer exists, the question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934580.253848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934580.253848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008702884118008954 ], "histogram": [ [ 36.83322256870412, 9.293227178568987, 0.9455034770310697, 0.3187747674648731, 0.05592279861917818, 0.08312343357268165, 0.0017451513894882502, 0.05312758760315984, 0.0029376911932166155, 0.6326970218355116, 0.11555945784318293, 0.22150877816074263, 0.00031449784256596546, 0.0043015147964758855, 0.0033449291516346237, 0.00013268724535948578, 0.0, 0.03530983525509165, 0.2511513131498714, 0.055447703319479215, 0.002925406029816031, 0.03590751892286844, 0.009052996599885836, 0.00030549695481892904, 0.00015739756573028248, 0.00994431305172206, 0.0, 0.004194652698018057, 0.0011699663336947987, 0.0, 4.681786015513584e-07, 0.003154469850560503, 0.0, 3.3692972235908983e-05, 0.00141674393791642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011892877034409194, 0.03955177164773243, 0.00016910790502617596, 3.47366883990754e-06, 0.0, 9.449139937930276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.9459689374268054e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040457661490508424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002209707360914199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018601572248443766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02126728302664911 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.196969454058991, "coverage": 0.999992012129382, "baseline_score": 97.74388733223982, "spot_peer_score": 9.125624171013218, "peer_archived_score": 5.196969454058991, "baseline_archived_score": 97.74388733223982, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.125624171013218 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934580.320706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934580.320706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the Conversation summarizes in its article [Ukraine invasion: should Russia lose its seat on the UN Security Council?](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-should-russia-lose-its-seat-on-the-un-security-council-177870):\n\n> “The Security Council was established by the 1945 UN Charter and comprises 15 members. Ten rotating non-permanent countries are elected by the UN General Assembly to do a two-year term on the Security Council. Five members – the USSR (now Russia), Republic of China (now People’s Republic of China), the US, UK and France – have the status of permanent members and so have a veto on any vote before the Council.”\n\nArticle 23 of the UN Charter says that [the USSR, not Russia, is the permanent member](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-5) of the UN Security Council, as Ukraine’s ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, has suggested in February 2022. This could be used as an argument that Russia is not, in fact, a legitimate permanent member of the Security Council." }, { "id": 10004, "title": "Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?", "short_title": "German Nuclear Power Operational June 1, 2023", "url_title": "German Nuclear Power Operational June 1, 2023", "slug": "german-nuclear-power-operational-june-1-2023", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T06:06:22.561807Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.296130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 158, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 794, 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany):\n> Nuclear power in Germany accounted for 13.3% of German electricity supply in 2021, generated by six power plants, of which three were switched off at the end of 2021, the other three due to cease operation at the end of 2022 according to the complete nuclear phase-out plan of 2011.\n\nGermany has been planning to stop generating electricity from nuclear power for 20 years. As ABCNews in its article [Germany shuts down half of its 6 remaining nuclear plants](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-germany-nuclear-shutdown-story-82051054) inform: \n> “The decision to phase out nuclear power and shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy was first taken by the center-left government of Gerhard Schroeder in 2002. His successor, Angela Merkel, reversed her decision to extend the lifetime of Germany’s nuclear plants in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan and set 2022 as the final deadline for shutting them down.”\n\nHowever, the current situation in Ukraine and the potential for an energy crisis in Europe could change or delay Germany’s decision to shut down its remaining nuclear power plants. \n\nGermany’s [three active nuclear reactors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#Reactors) as of February 2022 are:\n\n- Emsland\n\n- Isar 2\n\n- Neckarwestheim 2", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [Wikipedia’s page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#Reactors) on Germany's nuclear reactors reports any as “Operational” on June 1, 2023. If wikipedia does not report this information, or it is clearly inaccurate, credible media reports may be used instead", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685558903.266552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 794, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685558903.266552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 794, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03836195391130723 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.12965259265028, 26.556840407438894, 0.6125741335090847, 0.6950421218720697, 0.9012255762061198, 1.0019467616068893, 0.13274161451952138, 0.12898911025614132, 0.17641975609690985, 7.119630784406613e-05, 0.2422325175566549, 0.0005415468845383214, 0.04896464017058419, 0.13716133521291826, 0.008296280734531872, 0.05356736448170245, 4.6230202999669466e-05, 0.0229200096680651, 0.026806143490464132, 0.00012616855155910746, 0.03664646303509574, 0.009873718023337467, 0.02367096264781168, 0.020713775253701838, 0.00026297232050912335, 0.08096508574403935, 0.011191877512794856, 2.871880645507737e-07, 0.014749330217838768, 0.0, 0.15755523350612924, 0.01104624744707652, 0.005518977557137966, 0.0003387651034726719, 0.00023884898022883595, 0.006392887327835782, 5.4998192884662795e-05, 9.518069009908805e-06, 0.7999809822207742, 0.00044984808660820176, 0.07743711023474298, 0.006094739833775661, 0.006553323566761707, 0.4426715467546124, 0.015382589238306581, 0.02893758174531085, 0.01932204385816906, 0.020499715857253003, 0.003970473929261126, 0.006424043886870368, 0.051083512262605595, 0.00041720721011188964, 5.897337959149128e-07, 2.7399791453197318e-05, 0.009185687670883371, 0.03524463971628164, 0.03924924273369484, 5.14524537022784e-07, 0.0, 0.01631686183923909, 0.06755236261301494, 0.004841378193587528, 0.04607852134810683, 0.005329262497325156, 0.007153843387627329, 0.02130076201903734, 0.015430501486308004, 0.03120112982460546, 0.0, 0.023938027796053096, 0.021103895188584177, 0.006903796355192658, 0.005057114026721289, 0.271915835228294, 0.0021709337115326933, 0.030653520815158777, 2.315801521757979e-05, 0.0037282031544561413, 0.014182953208934385, 6.702665288188105e-12, 0.021200164670662602, 0.00556863874016809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007134389808625911, 1.654623843451018e-06, 0.0, 0.016583658479146342, 0.0067060501358548125, 0.005736232980047221, 0.0, 0.007001493066160319, 0.0, 0.0029097220916162398, 0.0, 2.508671647051777e-08, 0.0009225347560783229, 0.0, 0.37051502857282814 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 35.02195076809234, "coverage": 0.9999542474199974, "baseline_score": 36.42034106915516, "spot_peer_score": 26.652850511552003, "peer_archived_score": 35.02195076809234, "baseline_archived_score": 36.42034106915516, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.652850511552003 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685558903.503279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 794, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685558903.503279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 794, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 50, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3071, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany):\n> Nuclear power in Germany accounted for 13.3% of German electricity supply in 2021, generated by six power plants, of which three were switched off at the end of 2021, the other three due to cease operation at the end of 2022 according to the complete nuclear phase-out plan of 2011.\n\nGermany has been planning to stop generating electricity from nuclear power for 20 years. As ABCNews in its article [Germany shuts down half of its 6 remaining nuclear plants](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/correction-germany-nuclear-shutdown-story-82051054) inform: \n> “The decision to phase out nuclear power and shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy was first taken by the center-left government of Gerhard Schroeder in 2002. His successor, Angela Merkel, reversed her decision to extend the lifetime of Germany’s nuclear plants in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan and set 2022 as the final deadline for shutting them down.”\n\nHowever, the current situation in Ukraine and the potential for an energy crisis in Europe could change or delay Germany’s decision to shut down its remaining nuclear power plants. \n\nGermany’s [three active nuclear reactors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#Reactors) as of February 2022 are:\n\n- Emsland\n\n- Isar 2\n\n- Neckarwestheim 2" }, { "id": 10003, "title": "Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?", "short_title": "Russian Invasion of Baltics by 2024", "url_title": "Russian Invasion of Baltics by 2024", "slug": "russian-invasion-of-baltics-by-2024", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:58:59.220424Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.674884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T05:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T05:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 730, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 10003, "title": "Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:58:59.220424Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T20:40:33.777866Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T20:40:33.777866Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T05:57:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T05:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 23, 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In January 2021, the [German Council on Foreign Relations](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region) released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:\n\n>Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and actions. In breaching the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, it has deployed new ground-based, intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles. For the first time in almost 30 years, large parts of Europe face a potential nuclear threat from Russian soil. [...] A considerable number of strategy experts believe that Russia is preparing for regional wars in its strategic neighborhood, in particular in the Baltic and Black Sea regions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between February 26, 2022 and December 31, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any three [Permanent Members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that more than 100 Russian ground troops have entered Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.\n\nFrom the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from February 26, 2022 to December 31, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934572.609997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 730, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934572.609997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 730, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006966940377741567 ], "histogram": [ [ 36.2081957964839, 13.48175071435603, 0.7693122926934737, 0.05226355049018484, 0.7882639655922894, 0.133669230676574, 0.000613606039436323, 1.3908234241692308e-06, 0.0026881858249266826, 0.7712056702203571, 0.024877919811769886, 0.0011576162734332615, 0.0004060072935040928, 0.0, 2.647952159782873e-07, 0.0005584388534273353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2950027023809339, 0.0, 0.0010199351444080244, 0.0033874624706281228, 3.885369793814022e-06, 7.022913225569414e-05, 5.65643698148838e-05, 6.698323921646877e-05, 0.002443042802362649, 2.9498340559774376e-06, 0.0011662875408506475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6696301767954424e-08, 0.00011084386691737496, 0.0, 0.00010537964386491816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0187618210778963e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1216164963928624e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2344764317142197e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.615225721797938e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001430079910742404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.58020361640355e-08 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.859944110032679, "coverage": 0.9999996830786361, "baseline_score": 97.97239111917087, "spot_peer_score": 13.999135544145604, "peer_archived_score": 4.859944110032679, "baseline_archived_score": 97.97239111917087, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.999135544145604 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934572.678976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 730, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934572.678976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 730, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 30, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1477, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 23, 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In January 2021, the [German Council on Foreign Relations](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region) released a report on Russia's strategic interests in the Baltic region:\n\n>Recently, Russia has added another element to its hybrid instruments and actions. In breaching the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, it has deployed new ground-based, intermediate-range nuclear-capable missiles. For the first time in almost 30 years, large parts of Europe face a potential nuclear threat from Russian soil. [...] A considerable number of strategy experts believe that Russia is preparing for regional wars in its strategic neighborhood, in particular in the Baltic and Black Sea regions." }, { "id": 10002, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Putin Presidency on February 1, 2023", "url_title": "Putin Presidency on February 1, 2023", "slug": "putin-presidency-on-february-1-2023", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:55:11.867133Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.090865Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 209, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T05:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T05:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T12:00:00Z", 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"title": "Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:55:11.867133Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T20:45:48.844345Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T20:45:48.844345Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-01T05:53:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T05:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)\n\n----\n\n[Vladimir Vladmirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin) has been the president of the Russian Federation since 2012, with a previous term from 2000 to 2008. President Putin's presidential term is expected to last until 2024.\nIn February 2022 in response to the invasion of Ukraine thousands of Russians demonstrants took the streets and squares of Russian cities. As [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/russia-protests-putin.html) report:\n\n> “While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home.”\nRussia is the largest country and still maintains [the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads](https://www.nti.org/countries/russia/) in the world. Its internal instability can be a huge risk to global security.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if both of these conditions are met:\n\n- Vladimir Putin is president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023.\n\n- The Russian Federation controls at least 90% of the territory it controlled in January 2022.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** even if the legitimacy of his presidency is called into question, as long as he has de facto control of the office, for example if he is impeached and removed from office by the Federal Assembly but there are disputes whether this is valid and he manages to stay in power. If there are internal clashes or a civil war and it is not clear who is in charge, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\n\"The [de facto boundaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_facto#:~:text=The%20de%20facto%20boundaries%20of,of%20a%20de%20facto%20boundary) of a country are defined by the area that its government is actually able to enforce its laws in, and to defend against encroachments by other countries that may also claim the same territory de jure. The Durand Line is an example of a de facto boundary.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 10002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675223875.922094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1458, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675223875.922094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1458, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9892829600309913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.1197257108871735e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006776526503745573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0764094914400583e-10, 9.046902729921578e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493272824261553, 0.0, 2.099486018777511e-06, 1.9166372816214368e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 9.153858969832129e-08, 8.88533479958176e-09, 1.7712264222472258e-06, 4.9090039707223615e-08, 2.116661376303142e-13, 0.0, 1.1709485354258024e-05, 3.695675803508816e-10, 6.377062503627967e-09, 3.123448918648095e-08, 0.0, 0.0013449903682227003, 3.229184227303452e-07, 5.129152134583968e-10, 0.0, 3.390716802283966e-09, 0.00021509509232323033, 5.673826633020173e-12, 6.891019778322226e-09, 0.0, 2.4578260668791493e-09, 2.7578916330614784e-06, 0.0, 1.8041697143217196e-10, 7.222629028503318e-12, 1.4718752196312953e-08, 1.4348914467518319e-06, 9.956366137833889e-05, 0.00010813954393183885, 0.0005855795347038204, 0.0, 5.49067642695378e-07, 0.01389809323751056, 7.633160187532922e-06, 0.0, 2.235002646614232e-05, 0.0017550870061874618, 6.932982583677542e-05, 2.7078275176863267e-05, 1.3621279530531196e-08, 0.00027603878729550173, 0.000457188962179201, 0.0023161459151985974, 0.002319899893115946, 0.0007344047179922776, 0.012602749855126183, 0.013823861915383609, 0.0004819149947399801, 0.0249397016217906, 0.005160087858091516, 0.0018215295557756862, 0.025272026121061168, 0.0020561888040563454, 8.439762372867677e-09, 0.0021614656982574024, 0.0011483473202778182, 0.17005644442498533, 0.021134094565208112, 0.009346090548728212, 0.0003164143929421291, 0.0008663406573240028, 0.004813846156975196, 0.0033629308132780422, 0.0007887603202472041, 0.009434020015983115, 0.9372190652274346, 0.03871824234676786, 0.0035610383168433804, 0.6410409187358801, 0.04164659654773269, 0.03950484771214463, 0.5927785639717232, 0.24405070622749894, 0.25124080686152844, 1.566518368410883, 70.17696185318833 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.18074237289087, "coverage": 0.9999977963623095, "baseline_score": 79.98759131761905, "spot_peer_score": 26.58095760917692, "peer_archived_score": 17.18074237289087, "baseline_archived_score": 79.98759131761905, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.58095760917692 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675223876.082793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1458, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675223876.082793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1458, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.006310167344062645, 0.9936898326559374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 108, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4312, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)\n\n----\n\n[Vladimir Vladmirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin) has been the president of the Russian Federation since 2012, with a previous term from 2000 to 2008. President Putin's presidential term is expected to last until 2024.\nIn February 2022 in response to the invasion of Ukraine thousands of Russians demonstrants took the streets and squares of Russian cities. As [the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/russia-protests-putin.html) report:\n\n> “While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home.”\nRussia is the largest country and still maintains [the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads](https://www.nti.org/countries/russia/) in the world. Its internal instability can be a huge risk to global security." }, { "id": 10001, "title": "Will at least 50K civilians die in at least one major Ukrainian city in 2022?", "short_title": "Civilian Deaths in Ukrainian Cities in 2022", "url_title": "Civilian Deaths in Ukrainian Cities in 2022", "slug": "civilian-deaths-in-ukrainian-cities-in-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:50:51.157009Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.583132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T05:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:34:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 435, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the consequence of the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/ukraine-russia-flee-country-invasion) reports:\n> “Thousands of Ukrainians have left the country and as many as 100,000 are internally displaced after fleeing their homes following the attack ordered by Vladimir Putin.” \n\nLots of Ukrainians may be currently torn between trying to escape and 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officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is an unrecognized breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.”\n\n> [...] Transnistria has been recognized by only three other unrecognized or partially recognised breakaway states: [Abkhazia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia), [Artsakh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh), and [South Ossetia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022, there are at least five credible articles that:\n\na) report listing areas in Transnitria controlled by Russia that cover at least two thirds (2/3) of the population, according to the latest reliable population demographic data \n\nAND \n\nb) report that Russia formally acknowledges Russian political control over the region such that Russia formally considers the region of Transnistria as part of Russia.\n\nWe will [define annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation) as: the absorption of territory into a state. It is distinct from conquest, which refers to the acquisition of control over a territory involving a change of sovereignty, and differs from cession, in which territory is given or sold through treaty, since annexation is a unilateral act where territory is seized and held by one state. 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State), officially the Union State of Russia and Belarus is a supranational organization consisting of Russia and Belarus. The Union State is ruled through the Supreme State Council with the current president Alexander Lukashenko.\n\n[The Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) could possibly lead to the installation of a government interested in joining the Union State.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be based on the official report/statement of the Union State. This question will resolve positively if any government that has had de facto control over at least 30% of the Ukrainian population for at least 1 month at time of resolution, joins the Union State before January 1, 2023. \n\nWe will use this metric for defining the population:\n> \"On 1 January 2022 the total population of Ukraine was estimated to be 41,167,336[2] excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, which were annexed by Russia in 2014.\"\n\n[De facto control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_facto#:~:text=The%20de%20facto%20boundaries%20of,of%20a%20de%20facto%20boundary) is defined by:\n\"the area that its government is actually able to enforce its laws in, and to defend against encroachments by other countries that may also claim the same territory de jure. 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The Union State is ruled through the Supreme State Council with the current president Alexander Lukashenko.\n\n[The Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) could possibly lead to the installation of a government interested in joining the Union State." } ] }
