Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4340
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4320", "results": [ { "id": 9994, "title": "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "short_title": "5M Ukrainian Refugees", "url_title": "5M Ukrainian Refugees", "slug": "5m-ukrainian-refugees", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:38:02.183444Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.177578Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 683, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9994, "title": "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:38:02.183444Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T21:10:15.671387Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T21:10:15.671387Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/)\n\n* [How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/)\n\n* [How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9944/internally-displaced-ukrainians-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nA number of countries are actively preparing for a large influx of refugees from Ukraine as the military conflict escalates. The UN chief announced today that in the first 48 hours of the conflict, over [50,000 Ukranians](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/un-warns-russias-invasion-could-trigger-up-to-5m-refugees) have fled their country, seeking refuge amongst their neighboring countries. \n\n> “The U.S. government [estimates](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-crisis-poland-neighbors-ready-for-influx-of-migrants.html ) that an invasion could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the country, and Ukraine’s defense minister put the figure at three to five million. Charity Unicef on Friday also projected that up to 5 million Ukrainians could flee the country.” \n\nOther Eastern European countries, especially Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Romania, are expecting the brunt of the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Poland is actively preparing for up to a million new refugees to enter the country, and the Pentagon has sent 3,000 US troops to Poland to assist with the relocation and rehabilitation of migrants.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at least 5 million people attempt to flee Ukraine and seek refugee status within other countries during the Russo-Ukrainian war beginning February 23, 2022. \n\nWe will be using the [definition](https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/definitions#:~:text=Refugees%20are%20persons%20who%20are,a%20result%2C%20require%20international%20protection.) of a refugee from the United Nations. \n\nReports may come directly from individual country’s governments who are accepting refugees, or may come from at least five reputable media outlets all confirming at least a total of 5 million refugees. Any reports from the United Nations, including from UNICEF or UNHCR, can count as one of the resolution sources, but will not count as an exclusive source in replacement of the four other sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652447087.687596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 717, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652447087.687596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 717, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9751840280789443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.117081486277622e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.663723218474361e-12, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.4896193507920204e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 7.663624571030605e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.029602380389644e-09, 0.0, 0.0005457890418663775, 0.0, 1.2827359425592775e-10, 7.916301384645319e-10, 8.234933660265476e-07, 1.0962137319263119e-07, 5.174926136764556e-08, 3.024676504136702e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8486822177915926e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4160751990215064e-05, 1.0510157506482696e-06, 0.0029116875962127767, 7.225387291150951e-10, 2.360633088868159e-06, 3.409344514172813e-09, 7.618690106331648e-09, 6.11124667084306e-07, 7.6126970169426e-07, 0.0, 4.3301216051430574e-07, 4.299093389175933e-09, 2.5348357536036146e-06, 7.300261981330375e-07, 3.100960414497953e-08, 1.1667582381659747e-06, 0.0, 3.1003500425991486e-06, 4.1775499256639625e-09, 0.0009126812715330851, 9.914752562317804e-07, 2.787488835548788e-06, 2.4940360485259002e-05, 4.974532232686961e-06, 1.1019018065907603e-05, 0.0, 5.632795910778017e-05, 1.4384919712977217e-05, 1.8270812848761112e-05, 0.0005312132539666955, 1.2925627668654986e-05, 0.0026211088765031787, 0.007543487484756278, 0.001165378479169549, 0.35960336663745346, 0.002564526950302922, 0.0004676160475075308, 0.0192205338769053, 0.002880503136968581, 5.6919601514413245e-05, 0.4301631880475869, 0.001297496008867035, 0.6541969279487296, 0.010101745424308781, 0.0033274528676563056, 0.0004117141343715188, 0.0029398616583790164, 0.0016430018373591814, 0.008490452241981753, 0.003797588795737, 0.0034707983879612783, 0.004559043031143839, 0.011545690492255907, 0.001703250075322293, 0.11442172072345916, 0.0061943976650462255, 0.0017756965217526387, 1.3409700420129154, 0.005696041441510754, 0.008381078624838077, 0.8761092517942154, 0.9676537482692451, 1.5221870063131036, 0.6493819601629098, 1.758207116029684, 1.0674414144832314, 42.197945055165626 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.2041518975769954, "coverage": 0.07855467492138953, "baseline_score": 4.56996696074905, "spot_peer_score": -5.870757936272262, "peer_archived_score": 2.2041518975769954, "baseline_archived_score": 4.56996696074905, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.870757936272262 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650453547.793475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 682, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650453547.793475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 682, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09003163871439024, 0.9099683612856098 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10248/-of-ukrainian-refugees-by-july-1-2022/)\n\n* [How many refugees will leave Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10252/ukrainian-refugees-in-2022/)\n\n* [How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9944/internally-displaced-ukrainians-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nA number of countries are actively preparing for a large influx of refugees from Ukraine as the military conflict escalates. The UN chief announced today that in the first 48 hours of the conflict, over [50,000 Ukranians](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/un-warns-russias-invasion-could-trigger-up-to-5m-refugees) have fled their country, seeking refuge amongst their neighboring countries. \n\n> “The U.S. government [estimates](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-crisis-poland-neighbors-ready-for-influx-of-migrants.html ) that an invasion could prompt one to five million Ukrainians to flee the country, and Ukraine’s defense minister put the figure at three to five million. Charity Unicef on Friday also projected that up to 5 million Ukrainians could flee the country.” \n\nOther Eastern European countries, especially Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, and Romania, are expecting the brunt of the flow of refugees from Ukraine. Poland is actively preparing for up to a million new refugees to enter the country, and the Pentagon has sent 3,000 US troops to Poland to assist with the relocation and rehabilitation of migrants." }, { "id": 9993, "title": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "short_title": "Europe to Stop Buying Gas from Russia", "url_title": "Europe to Stop Buying Gas from Russia", "slug": "europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:35:39.848384Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.628391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-27T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-27T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 641, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9993, "title": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-26T05:35:39.848384Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T20:51:17.840468Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T20:51:17.840468Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-27T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-27T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-27T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 24, 2022 EuroNews published the article [What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?](https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/24/what-happens-if-russia-shuts-off-gas-supplies-to-europe):\n> “Europe relies on Russia for around 40 percent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.”\n> [...] ”Norway, Europe's second largest supplier, is delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and can't replace any missing supplies from Russia, its prime minister has said.”\n\nHowever,\n\n> “Europe has options, including expanding nuclear and renewable energy infrastructure. Efforts by Germany and Nordic countries in recent months to expand the continent’s wind power capacity might accelerate, and some officials see the potential breakaway from Russian gas as an opportunity to pivot toward energy independence.”\n> “The complete West will turn away from Russia,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told the Associated Press after news of the invasion broke on Thursday. “We will diversify our energy system. [We will not buy Russian coal and gas](https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-invasion-russia-germany-natural-gas/) in such an amount in the future.”\nThus we ask:", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 and December 31, 2022 at least three European countries’ governments announce they are no longer buying natural gas from Russia. Payments to Russia for natural gas must cease by February 1, 2023 to count, but announcements can be made about the future refusal up until December 31, 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1651601656.073062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1651601656.073062, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 658, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9542414023198622 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.759788637271512e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.037857740818541e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.977663428440107e-11, 0.0036010627013554554, 0.0, 0.0003300327756735085, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6731179633216467e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0057554436813672125, 1.0483554978059134e-05, 0.0, 0.00016485630691611027, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0799096361024363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022740774893176502, 0.0, 0.0005166416220036684, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2454680986300476e-08, 0.0, 7.63752208334114e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.902517370758813e-08, 8.50143849861345e-05, 2.5974308946194536e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3046145506241966e-08, 0.0, 3.6035588754150953e-07, 0.07209440620706686, 5.035556453679426e-07, 0.0, 4.143651654120106e-09, 2.2759071740972454e-06, 0.025640306304339097, 2.724374136480109e-07, 0.0, 1.4380065041108784e-09, 0.6246562271327865, 1.2546223829316077e-05, 8.709930902343614e-06, 0.00011899162870519573, 0.00040004413386520647, 0.0011000835940923072, 0.002200383269160486, 0.00043740000186165374, 0.002022765845675267, 0.015339247784869432, 0.0019124853903756973, 0.6476389554268631, 0.00010882748093151363, 0.0004887799369701503, 0.00012713456092252568, 0.41860979398071474, 0.8138795065676009, 0.8066291285987806, 1.2387649591785536e-05, 0.2900080694469879, 0.16860956694413218, 0.000656778214244766, 0.0009976652014490456, 9.586384536654799e-05, 0.001171912770520359, 0.7209718721624425, 0.00019756507242642683, 0.32737632855715365, 0.2089506603375469, 0.0006636298899913963, 0.5205035874661523, 1.6849225942297972, 1.1352296574035894, 0.8073402438349706, 0.4743048520482672, 3.042572511083481, 2.333619127912245, 1.40170363350324, 2.272744824996749, 30.967826963291916 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.003479548249284, "coverage": 0.19242432320955075, "baseline_score": 13.727035185724741, "spot_peer_score": 31.605762294833536, "peer_archived_score": 3.003479548249284, "baseline_archived_score": 13.727035185724741, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.605762294833536 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650958360.686068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650958360.686068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 640, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.044143715961700636, 0.9558562840382994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1438, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 24, 2022 EuroNews published the article [What happens if Russia shuts off gas supplies to Europe?](https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/24/what-happens-if-russia-shuts-off-gas-supplies-to-europe):\n> “Europe relies on Russia for around 40 percent of its natural gas. Most comes through pipelines including Yamal-Europe, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which goes directly to Germany, and via Ukraine.”\n> [...] ”Norway, Europe's second largest supplier, is delivering natural gas at maximum capacity and can't replace any missing supplies from Russia, its prime minister has said.”\n\nHowever,\n\n> “Europe has options, including expanding nuclear and renewable energy infrastructure. Efforts by Germany and Nordic countries in recent months to expand the continent’s wind power capacity might accelerate, and some officials see the potential breakaway from Russian gas as an opportunity to pivot toward energy independence.”\n> “The complete West will turn away from Russia,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck told the Associated Press after news of the invasion broke on Thursday. “We will diversify our energy system. [We will not buy Russian coal and gas](https://fortune.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-invasion-russia-germany-natural-gas/) in such an amount in the future.”\nThus we ask:" }, { "id": 9984, "title": "Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Cyberattack on US Infrastructure 2022", "url_title": "Russian Cyberattack on US Infrastructure 2022", "slug": "russian-cyberattack-on-us-infrastructure-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T22:28:34.324181Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T20:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.583630Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T20:20:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"title": "Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T22:28:34.324181Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T20:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-26T21:28:15.270696Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-26T21:28:15.270696Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, which system(s) will be attacked?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9985/cyberattack-on-us-oil-gas-infrastructure-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn 2020, multiple cyberattacks on US federal agencies and businesses occurred through [multiple exploits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach). For the estimated 18,000 victims of the SolarWinds exploit, former National Security Agency hacker Jake Williams said \"The true cost could be hundreds of billions of dollars\". Additionally, In May 2021, [an unidentified group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) brought down the Colonial Pipeline in the US North-East for a week, disrupting the region's supply of oil.\n\nOn February 12, 2022, [CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/politics/us-security-intelligence-prep-russian-hacking-threats/index.html) that multiple intelligence agencies are preparing for Russian-sponsored cyber attacks. CNN reported an official publicly stating \"While there are not currently any specific credible threats to the U.S. homeland, we are mindful of the potential for Russia to consider escalating its destabilizing actions in ways that may impact others outside of Ukraine.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the following conditions are met:\n\n1. At any time from February 25, 2022 to January 1, 2023, one or more cyberattacks successfully disrupt some part of the US critical infrastructure (electricity, water supply, heating, sewer systems, gas/oil/petrol processing and distribution, transportation and aviation, communications networks, medical care, security/defense/military, banking and financial infrastructure). The target of the attack may be publicly or privately owned or operated.\n2. The attack is attributed to hackers from the Russian government or sponsored by the Russian government, according to statements by the US federal government or US intelligence agencies.\n3. At least one of the following conditions is met regarding the severity of the attack:\n 1. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $1 million direct property damage (excluding intellectual property).\n 2. The attack is estimated to have caused at least $10 million of direct or indirect costs to the economy.\n 3. The attack causes loss of an essential service (such as electricity, water, gas pumps) affecting at least 10,000 people for at least 1 week.\n 4. The attack causes a sharp rise in price of essential goods (such as food or gasoline) by at least 50% for a community of at least 10,000 people.\n 5. The attack is estimated to have caused at least 10 fatalities.\n\nTo assess the above criteria, Metaculus Admins will consider reports by US government agencies, research and analytics organizations, or credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672781156.467537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 440, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672781156.467537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 440, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.052582956467345204 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 24.168283097061707, 4.089310283861586, 2.806915540721228, 1.2567089798014333, 1.1113273508928536, 0.4208694893815625, 0.43900799875566743, 0.11727143509351556, 0.26516915311200717, 0.2659263509401757, 0.043126291197121, 0.009119353484161062, 0.013530011824270962, 0.2682596167084246, 1.203450262140006, 0.01666851035118772, 0.006163131784514281, 0.06405603759985305, 0.00806955572347187, 1.2211023052241698, 0.010049652848629905, 0.015525729915581788, 0.0, 0.007058821713148248, 0.03473482047199412, 0.0, 0.009705706929336083, 0.0013361076634828318, 0.0, 0.028016040919599312, 0.02060548575412508, 0.0004484659486987679, 0.011167480286661877, 0.08872129466353931, 0.9936856313967568, 0.04725857245498, 0.931108793329874, 6.765695031613663e-05, 0.1996358678969943, 0.023477419247490534, 0.009126294169756717, 0.0014951730758214325, 0.00028090957013846365, 0.0002953418761120431, 0.009599901447437166, 0.0030317185922097284, 2.0407991443490444e-06, 0.0047997244586426395, 0.00697220994280363, 0.0066253162693951095, 0.00038797351205894164, 0.0031501086867670777, 0.00012234532536109556, 0.0022261594869748096, 0.0008540081426426262, 0.05408020720686172, 3.387252522327673e-05, 0.0, 0.06331439441273483, 0.003907039438654616, 0.0, 0.00056682325343763, 0.000607334720821682, 0.029845286949132525, 3.8236403303926684e-05, 6.649656459898854e-05, 5.568292138541077e-05, 0.0, 4.060882269752222e-05, 0.0002892769730238479, 9.396481435799937e-08, 0.0, 1.3975315093024901e-05, 0.0, 8.175440164099628e-05, 0.0, 0.0020223277720926294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008606946521016892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003180414047374549, 6.65067752341726e-06, 0.00020629962273558094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020065189917882935, 0.0, 9.809458920052152e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006042533482964089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021719659356960703 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.926650717201994, "coverage": 0.9999863284474731, "baseline_score": 59.57893412717047, "spot_peer_score": 41.06090876462651, "peer_archived_score": 34.926650717201994, "baseline_archived_score": 59.57893412717047, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.06090876462651 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672213122.594687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672213122.594687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there is a successful Russian cyberattack on US infrastructure in 2022, which system(s) will be attacked?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9985/cyberattack-on-us-oil-gas-infrastructure-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn 2020, multiple cyberattacks on US federal agencies and businesses occurred through [multiple exploits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach). For the estimated 18,000 victims of the SolarWinds exploit, former National Security Agency hacker Jake Williams said \"The true cost could be hundreds of billions of dollars\". Additionally, In May 2021, [an unidentified group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) brought down the Colonial Pipeline in the US North-East for a week, disrupting the region's supply of oil.\n\nOn February 12, 2022, [CNN reported](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/politics/us-security-intelligence-prep-russian-hacking-threats/index.html) that multiple intelligence agencies are preparing for Russian-sponsored cyber attacks. CNN reported an official publicly stating \"While there are not currently any specific credible threats to the U.S. homeland, we are mindful of the potential for Russia to consider escalating its destabilizing actions in ways that may impact others outside of Ukraine.\"" }, { "id": 9981, "title": "Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?", "short_title": "China to reverse crypto ban for banks by 2024", "url_title": "China to reverse crypto ban for banks by 2024", "slug": "china-to-reverse-crypto-ban-for-banks-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:44.197271Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.952263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9981, "title": "Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:44.197271Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T05:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T05:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has long been [at odds with](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/china-crypto-bans-a-complete-history/) the growing cryptocurrency market. In September 2021, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) instituted a ban against all cryptocurrency transactions due to a capital flight of approximately $50B between 2019 and 2020 from the country. \n\nThe [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/what-s-behind-china-s-cryptocurrency-ban/) writes:\n\n> \"In late September 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned all cryptocurrency transactions. The PBOC cited the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating financial crime as well as posing a growing risk to China’s financial system owing to their highly speculative nature. However, one other possible reason behind the cryptocurrency ban is an attempt to combat capital flight from China.\n\n> According to the Chainalysis Blockchain data platform, more than $50 billion worth of cryptocurrency left East Asian accounts to areas outside the region between 2019 and 2020. As China has an outsized presence in East Asian cryptocurrency exchanges, Chainalysis staff believe that much of this net outflow of cryptocurrency was actually capital flight from China. Although Chainalysis does not have a definitive figure for how much capital fled China between 2019 and 2020, they estimate that it could be as high as $50 billion.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the People's Bank of China announces that they will allow financial institutions to trade and engage in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024-01-01.\n\nFinancial institutions must be able to engage in cryptocurrency transactions at the same level and with the same freedoms as before the ban. \n\nThe allowance of individual entities to engage in cryptocurrency at the behest of the government will not trigger resolution. \n\nFor the purpose of this question an announcement by the PBOC will be enough to trigger resolution, the end of the ban does not need to have come into full effect before 2024-01-01 for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703705194.24121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703705194.24121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021642688381428857 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.923919661162253, 8.536978109872873, 0.399587154085678, 0.10968426469539654, 0.6262827302096632, 0.5071651521897025, 0.06259731370462164, 0.29433507181763774, 0.007254371728824626, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.13840544532828758, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.0, 0.1026550047382594, 0.0013621964883433729, 0.004047347967465559, 0.01110630055688868, 0.024056485682037533, 0.0, 0.4560985961896812, 0.005536429675418656, 0.0, 0.39088007356647586, 0.0015649527945986303, 0.0008096539456965414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0, 0.008152019573536064, 0.025866618204948677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01785330346242701, 0.005528490661586111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018726136479240064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003399843905054539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032805662193165124 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.841011969772982, "coverage": 0.9997047856033172, "baseline_score": 84.0931860665342, "spot_peer_score": 51.08254710967815, "peer_archived_score": 31.841011969772982, "baseline_archived_score": 84.0931860665342, "spot_peer_archived_score": 51.08254710967815 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008215.092032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008215.092032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has long been [at odds with](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/china-crypto-bans-a-complete-history/) the growing cryptocurrency market. In September 2021, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) instituted a ban against all cryptocurrency transactions due to a capital flight of approximately $50B between 2019 and 2020 from the country. \n\nThe [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/what-s-behind-china-s-cryptocurrency-ban/) writes:\n\n> \"In late September 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned all cryptocurrency transactions. The PBOC cited the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating financial crime as well as posing a growing risk to China’s financial system owing to their highly speculative nature. However, one other possible reason behind the cryptocurrency ban is an attempt to combat capital flight from China.\n\n> According to the Chainalysis Blockchain data platform, more than $50 billion worth of cryptocurrency left East Asian accounts to areas outside the region between 2019 and 2020. As China has an outsized presence in East Asian cryptocurrency exchanges, Chainalysis staff believe that much of this net outflow of cryptocurrency was actually capital flight from China. Although Chainalysis does not have a definitive figure for how much capital fled China between 2019 and 2020, they estimate that it could be as high as $50 billion.\"" }, { "id": 9980, "title": "Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?", "short_title": "Shanghai Semiconductor subsidies until 2024", "url_title": "Shanghai Semiconductor subsidies until 2024", "slug": "shanghai-semiconductor-subsidies-until-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:44.174313Z", "published_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.552783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T03:51:01.839956Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9980, "title": "Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:44.174313Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T03:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T03:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China remains incredibly reliant on the import of semiconductors to fuel its technological development and progress. To combat this perceived vulnerability, some urban, technological powerhouses are [offering subsidies](https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/shanghai-semiconductor-incentives) on semiconductor R&D investments.\n\n> \"Shanghai’s municipal government on Wednesday announced new policies meant to bolster China’s advanced chipmaking capabilities.\n\n> Shanghai, the largest Chinese city and the country’s financial center, has spelled out plans to woo R&D talent in integrated circuits, industrial software, emerging technology software, and cybersecurity software.\n\n> To support semiconductor companies, the Shanghai government will match 30% of the investment in new semiconductor material and equipment projects and chip-software projects such as electronic design automation tools, up to 100 million RMB ($15.8 million).\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Shanghai continues to offer at least a 30% subsidy on semiconductor R&D by 2024-01-01. \n\nResolution will come from reports from at least two reputable news sources", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703705391.263649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703705391.263649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9155646220871315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0016972687722069135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007131134940337824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009137579853633773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06284043868993194, 0.0, 0.001454516036481417, 0.0, 0.0005760640316816688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05043066873448547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025439763757925768, 0.0010416673899746396, 0.0199234999633517, 0.03717066227394352, 0.05431093279464273, 0.0004549333128896809, 0.07777530720475026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014726095723060564, 0.5987863018717693, 0.0, 0.6213782665940669, 0.0, 0.0019669756877948225, 0.43065660634053793, 0.007450097260911806, 0.05605250800634001, 0.0, 0.01111780621856027, 0.052226820579956576, 0.22629836945952392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246638293928857, 0.02097533993706027, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3627927355886034, 1.634797702138541, 0.0, 1.83910770686078, 0.06751809014695846, 0.6741535733176844, 2.2428083676507633, 1.3712471287186714, 1.086197070252953, 0.35518884365430864, 4.452016960663126 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.15574043522131, "coverage": 0.9995293350028431, "baseline_score": 68.26028476741605, "spot_peer_score": 29.099154033635607, "peer_archived_score": 23.15574043522131, "baseline_archived_score": 68.26028476741605, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.099154033635607 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703922202.371812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703922202.371812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.02032884769684562, 0.9796711523031544 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 212, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China remains incredibly reliant on the import of semiconductors to fuel its technological development and progress. To combat this perceived vulnerability, some urban, technological powerhouses are [offering subsidies](https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/shanghai-semiconductor-incentives) on semiconductor R&D investments.\n\n> \"Shanghai’s municipal government on Wednesday announced new policies meant to bolster China’s advanced chipmaking capabilities.\n\n> Shanghai, the largest Chinese city and the country’s financial center, has spelled out plans to woo R&D talent in integrated circuits, industrial software, emerging technology software, and cybersecurity software.\n\n> To support semiconductor companies, the Shanghai government will match 30% of the investment in new semiconductor material and equipment projects and chip-software projects such as electronic design automation tools, up to 100 million RMB ($15.8 million).\"" }, { "id": 9977, "title": "Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?", "short_title": "China to reverse crypto ban for all by 2024", "url_title": 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"close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9977, "title": "Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:44.108226Z", "open_time": "2022-03-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-20T03:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-20T03:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has long been [at odds with](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/china-crypto-bans-a-complete-history/) the growing cryptocurrency market. In September 2021, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) instituted a ban against all cryptocurrency transactions due to a capital flight of approximately $50B between 2019 and 2020 from the country. \n\nThe [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/what-s-behind-china-s-cryptocurrency-ban/) writes:\n\n> \"In late September 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned all cryptocurrency transactions. The PBOC cited the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating financial crime as well as posing a growing risk to China’s financial system owing to their highly speculative nature. However, one other possible reason behind the cryptocurrency ban is an attempt to combat capital flight from China.\n\nAccording to the Chainalysis Blockchain data platform, more than $50 billion worth of cryptocurrency left East Asian accounts to areas outside the region between 2019 and 2020. As China has an outsized presence in East Asian cryptocurrency exchanges, Chainalysis staff believe that much of this net outflow of cryptocurrency was actually capital flight from China. Although Chainalysis does not have a definitive figure for how much capital fled China between 2019 and 2020, they estimate that it could be as high as $50 billion.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the People's Bank of China announces that they will allow all people and legal entities to trade and engage in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024-01-01.\n\nAll individuals and entities must be able to engage in cryptocurrency transactions at the same level and with the same freedoms as before the ban. \n\nFor the purpose of this question an announcement by the PBOC will be enough to trigger resolution, the end of the ban does not need to have come into full effect before 2024-01-01 for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703945968.836017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703945968.836017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023670100066137907 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.664841445877222, 10.077746119602674, 0.6042674193570783, 0.13505910410871416, 0.36774199528072815, 0.22063971638552277, 0.11528266230282555, 0.00048159249569750245, 0.0007985798596448911, 0.46247983205704857, 0.349777160444788, 0.00791480273714205, 7.482182921068497e-05, 0.038406444081088426, 0.001784123526449647, 0.012873735032935029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06531609405833266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024681838415965473, 0.0001044762959013861, 0.4713711845506007, 0.3957099621278052, 0.0004323598583736565, 0.0384696565853226, 0.0, 0.01948999168181852, 0.0, 0.001640509814689364, 0.002279429680267666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0974098439747602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026699280126036814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003509888990503696 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.382423587771108, "coverage": 0.9997046109913039, "baseline_score": 90.07417350279496, "spot_peer_score": 16.58085525677748, "peer_archived_score": 21.382423587771108, "baseline_archived_score": 90.07417350279496, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.58085525677748 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703945968.880753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703945968.880753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 306, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has long been [at odds with](https://www.coindesk.com/learn/china-crypto-bans-a-complete-history/) the growing cryptocurrency market. In September 2021, The People's Bank of China (PBOC) instituted a ban against all cryptocurrency transactions due to a capital flight of approximately $50B between 2019 and 2020 from the country. \n\nThe [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/what-s-behind-china-s-cryptocurrency-ban/) writes:\n\n> \"In late September 2021, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) banned all cryptocurrency transactions. The PBOC cited the role of cryptocurrencies in facilitating financial crime as well as posing a growing risk to China’s financial system owing to their highly speculative nature. However, one other possible reason behind the cryptocurrency ban is an attempt to combat capital flight from China.\n\nAccording to the Chainalysis Blockchain data platform, more than $50 billion worth of cryptocurrency left East Asian accounts to areas outside the region between 2019 and 2020. As China has an outsized presence in East Asian cryptocurrency exchanges, Chainalysis staff believe that much of this net outflow of cryptocurrency was actually capital flight from China. Although Chainalysis does not have a definitive figure for how much capital fled China between 2019 and 2020, they estimate that it could be as high as $50 billion.\"" }, { "id": 9969, "title": "Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?", "short_title": "Chinese involvement in Ukrainian conflict", "url_title": "Chinese involvement in Ukrainian conflict", "slug": "chinese-involvement-in-ukrainian-conflict", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.878314Z", "published_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.885099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 122, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T16:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T16:52:00Z", "open_time": 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null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.878314Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T16:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T16:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T16:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has started making noteworthy statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:\n\n> China's foreign minister Wang Yi called Russia's security concerns \"legitimate\", saying they should be \"taken seriously and addressed.\"\n\n> Chinese ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun went further and said outright that China disagreed with US claims that Russia was threatening international peace. He also criticised the US for convening a meeting of the UN Security Council, likening it to \"megaphone diplomacy\" that was \"not conducive\" for negotiations.\n\nAccording to [the Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2022/01/29/what-china-thinks-of-possible-war-in-ukraine), China’s relations with Russia are the strongest they have been for 70 years. Thus we ask:", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if between March 1, 2022 and December 31, 2023, representatives of China announce or acknowledge the Chinese involvement in the conflict. By the Chinese involvement we mean a situation where China supports one of the parties in the conflict, either by military presence on Ukrainian territory or by military material aid of any value.\n\nPurely commercial transactions (including weapon sales) between Chinese suppliers (be they private or state-owned companies) and one side of the conflict will be counted only if they are openly supported, endorsed, organized or subsidized by the Chinese government. Dual-use material aid will be counted only if provided with the stated purpose of helping one side's efforts in the conflict (as opposed to e.g. civilian relief).", "fine_print": "Clarification issued on March 3, 2023: To count as \"openly supported, endorsed, organized or subsidized\" the government of China must officially announce material aid to one side of the conflict. Approval of a commercial arms deal does not qualify, unless it were to be accompanied by either an official statement describing the deal as supporting one side of the conflict or the government of China sharing some of the material cost of the deal.", "post_id": 9969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979708.781727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 592, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979708.781727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 592, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026125733186335705 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.05894901017366, 15.741337461153886, 1.797806724664363, 1.3216077618789415, 1.4561084042589552, 1.707993126328649, 0.19658746561589108, 0.14476028487181158, 0.191870320678718, 0.04053428232531428, 0.5234367202295107, 0.27149288240214814, 0.032860862322932095, 0.026080352217045518, 0.002657158389879381, 0.09707269021691252, 0.028735338882358668, 0.001687709141105197, 0.4461726932430776, 0.014579260158387758, 0.19448219691808255, 0.0015948474814573375, 0.34988292951665134, 0.39860117074275153, 0.12730008043286037, 0.3953828851367884, 3.5761491295034046e-06, 5.329471566232626e-05, 0.0028051726229433413, 0.0, 0.036123407544419686, 0.000542863702877117, 0.013827592681953734, 0.3904305200715213, 0.003331137006892566, 0.009730950899740137, 0.019078509321212352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035192463094796365, 3.4158278206906535e-05, 0.0, 1.3130161614007048e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7553083418832896e-08, 5.424989980460525e-06, 0.0, 1.5131384583777623e-08, 0.002837406612605006, 4.507889617010159e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0101611407446237e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0362855769477655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.501336897360144e-07, 4.820826547801555e-08, 0.0, 0.00040018338968617984, 0.0, 0.0007603835501519111, 0.018158161010798625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008344012296827618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.13409369179897e-07, 3.5746901829209573e-07, 0.0, 0.007530242554250282, 0.0, 1.6232989001119238e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026893530740149728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036146393713035576, 0.0, 0.03410887556365606 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.012645508500835, "coverage": 0.9999364981601997, "baseline_score": 87.08534896893968, "spot_peer_score": 14.712023926273226, "peer_archived_score": 18.012645508500835, "baseline_archived_score": 87.08534896893968, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.712023926273226 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979708.853387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 592, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979708.853387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 592, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 44, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1585, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has started making noteworthy statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:\n\n> China's foreign minister Wang Yi called Russia's security concerns \"legitimate\", saying they should be \"taken seriously and addressed.\"\n\n> Chinese ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun went further and said outright that China disagreed with US claims that Russia was threatening international peace. He also criticised the US for convening a meeting of the UN Security Council, likening it to \"megaphone diplomacy\" that was \"not conducive\" for negotiations.\n\nAccording to [the Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2022/01/29/what-china-thinks-of-possible-war-in-ukraine), China’s relations with Russia are the strongest they have been for 70 years. Thus we ask:" }, { "id": 9963, "title": "Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?", "short_title": "UN Investigation of Xinjiang Camps by 2024", "url_title": "UN Investigation of Xinjiang Camps by 2024", "slug": "un-investigation-of-xinjiang-camps-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.731532Z", "published_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.290164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9963, "title": "Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.731532Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2017, the [Xinjiang internment camps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) were instituted for the Uyghur muslims by Xi Jinping. The topic of much controversy of the last several years for their reported human rights violations, the United Nations has yet to take any action to investigate or otherwise intervene on the issue. \n\nAt a convention of the United Nations in 2019, 54 nations including China rejected the accusations of human rights violations, while 23 countries called on country to abolish the camps for the UN to intervene. After evidence of increased building and expansion of the camps in 2020, the number of countries supporting China fell to 45, with an additional 16 unique countries voicing complaints against China. \n\nIn March 2021, after the publication of an [open letter](https://www.accessnow.org/cms/assets/uploads/2020/09/UN_China_Access_Now.pdf) by 300+ NGOs and other social actor groups condemning the actions of China, the [UN announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1088612) that it was \"deeply concerned by the allegations,\" and yet by October 2021, no further action had taken place.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United Nations authorizes an official investigation into the internment camps in Xinjiang and the detention of Uyghur muslims via technical field assessment, fact finding mission, or other similar process by the [Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)](https://www.ohchr.org/) [Human Rights Council](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRbodies/HRC/Pages/Home.aspx) or similar body before January 1, 2024.\n\nTIhe assessment or mission need not actually occur before 2024, it is sufficient for OHCHR/HRC to announce their investigation before January 1, 2024. \n\nThe question will resolve based on [a list of official investigations at the OHCHR/HRC website](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/ListHRCMandat.aspx) or an official announcement by the OHCHR/HRC (on its website or via a press release)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9963, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979684.608731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979684.608731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03720401540694188 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.937801012063327, 7.764435227633869, 0.6367195420641114, 0.26624991062608105, 0.007933824671589458, 0.6449694904070871, 0.2812978274764729, 0.0, 0.33087746397314133, 0.1249854405013621, 0.28816596379755666, 0.0, 0.30022217724233713, 0.0, 0.28887848796081406, 0.10678429540948216, 0.2827985096033646, 0.1316923192476727, 0.08466099148341169, 0.0, 0.20215108528702275, 0.03934252632495697, 0.006834988728375071, 0.0, 0.013975062184252263, 0.08572187486236621, 0.0, 0.27946740676519644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015474758497602447, 0.03439975301540365, 0.18678986587881988, 0.039309110824877584, 5.0836333581389236e-05, 0.04497796765351396, 0.06892901110019387, 0.0, 6.6457358693867e-05, 0.025992064066328504, 0.011644929764859773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018409712042650017, 0.061594101229181866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05206029738017379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029372774768895806, 0.0005553875425660218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0590050819552273, 0.004276860632308383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003628448840774233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005429947567341769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.716804317715862, "coverage": 0.9999291822855604, "baseline_score": 72.93949774253275, "spot_peer_score": 17.069929138375254, "peer_archived_score": 14.716804317715862, "baseline_archived_score": 72.93949774253275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.069929138375254 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979684.643243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979684.643243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2017, the [Xinjiang internment camps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) were instituted for the Uyghur muslims by Xi Jinping. 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After evidence of increased building and expansion of the camps in 2020, the number of countries supporting China fell to 45, with an additional 16 unique countries voicing complaints against China. \n\nIn March 2021, after the publication of an [open letter](https://www.accessnow.org/cms/assets/uploads/2020/09/UN_China_Access_Now.pdf) by 300+ NGOs and other social actor groups condemning the actions of China, the [UN announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1088612) that it was \"deeply concerned by the allegations,\" and yet by October 2021, no further action had taken place." }, { "id": 9962, "title": "Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?", "short_title": "Surveillance of the antimicrobial resistance", "url_title": "Surveillance of the antimicrobial resistance", "slug": "surveillance-of-the-antimicrobial-resistance", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], 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"forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9962, "title": "Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.701876Z", "open_time": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-07T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T18:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Antibiotic resistance](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antibiotic-resistance) is one of the biggest threats to global security and health, having the potential for long-lasting effects on agriculture, food security, the environment, and human health.\n\nThis effect is [felt disproportionately by lower and middle-income countries](https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/6/e002104) who often lack the types of regulation, governance, and infrastructure needed for appropriate anti-microbial stewardship. \n\nWhile rapidly successful in some areas, China [continues to suffer](https://www.who.int/china/health-topics/antimicrobial-resistancefrom the over-prescription) and use of antimicrobials and the subsequent antimicrobial resistance. Although use cases have declined since 2011 since the implementation of the One Health National Action Plan, antimicrobial use for hospital inpatients remained at 36% in 2019. In 2017, China reported 73,000 cases of drug-resistant Tuberculosis, representing over 13% of the global level reported. \n\nChina's government has implemented a number of regulations, national action plans, and monitoring systems over the last several years to reduce these numbers, all of which are continuously updated and reported through the Tripartite Antimicrobial Resistance Country Self Assessment Survey. Despite development in a number of other areas, such as the implementation of a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance in humans and a antimicrobial surveillance system for animals with possible exposure to zoonotic pathogenic bacteria, China still does not have, or report to having, any regulation on antimicrobial contamination of the environment, which can lead to antimicrobial resistance in plants, the soil, and all other food or livestock cultivated in the exposed area.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if China self-reports under question 7.5c to having a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food (animal and plant origin) by 2024-01-01. Resolution will be found from [the global database on AMR country progress](http://amrcountryprogress.org/#/map-view). \n\nQuestion 7.5c states: *National surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in food (animal and plant origin), Y/N?*\n\nIf China does not provide any information on this question, then this question will resolve ambiguously. If this site is no longer operational and the WHO does not provide any alternative data source for the survey, or the survey is no longer implemented annually, then this question will also resolve ambiguously. If the wording, numbering or order of questions in the survey changes and there is a question equivalent to the current 7.5c, resolution will be based on such question. If there is no question directly corresponding to the current 7.5c in the new survey, resolution is ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934506.46024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934506.46024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.27051242110354595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.897708783660066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.834092764453912, 1.2529689104755142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9496052055761556, 0.0, 0.12181943421064731, 0.0, 0.9971648846300903, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6244744998024703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010088690840609248, 0.3983615267089262, 0.009137579853633773, 1.2107756684660518, 0.0, 2.837911338661024, 0.0, 0.8758557872905585, 0.5571470135729721, 0.22195011158549066, 0.7834202912666113, 0.21025525063271866, 1.0384684873415662, 0.006019301719204367, 0.0, 0.19465100375729721, 0.04017063526088061, 0.17008001803476808, 0.05431093279464273, 0.0, 0.034361985631411136, 0.08338747473707883, 0.5625684677489533, 0.10966173185019426, 0.0, 0.26480556229558944, 0.0938969062252567, 0.05043066873448547, 0.17533162460555216, 0.0, 0.04678886020864767, 0.06751809014695846, 0.0007131134940337824, 0.0022202224620120684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0020768099622872, 0.0, 0.04396423180980981, 0.006704717103507414, 0.0, 0.0008677486979024548, 0.002265842919544049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007450097260911806, 0.0, 0.0033615277702142223, 0.03078358032927532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008259590827765978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012366369575886927 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934506.500535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934506.500535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9223430236854975, 0.07765697631450251 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 209, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Antibiotic resistance](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antibiotic-resistance) is one of the biggest threats to global security and health, having the potential for long-lasting effects on agriculture, food security, the environment, and human health.\n\nThis effect is [felt disproportionately by lower and middle-income countries](https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/6/e002104) who often lack the types of regulation, governance, and infrastructure needed for appropriate anti-microbial stewardship. \n\nWhile rapidly successful in some areas, China [continues to suffer](https://www.who.int/china/health-topics/antimicrobial-resistancefrom the over-prescription) and use of antimicrobials and the subsequent antimicrobial resistance. Although use cases have declined since 2011 since the implementation of the One Health National Action Plan, antimicrobial use for hospital inpatients remained at 36% in 2019. In 2017, China reported 73,000 cases of drug-resistant Tuberculosis, representing over 13% of the global level reported. \n\nChina's government has implemented a number of regulations, national action plans, and monitoring systems over the last several years to reduce these numbers, all of which are continuously updated and reported through the Tripartite Antimicrobial Resistance Country Self Assessment Survey. Despite development in a number of other areas, such as the implementation of a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance in humans and a antimicrobial surveillance system for animals with possible exposure to zoonotic pathogenic bacteria, China still does not have, or report to having, any regulation on antimicrobial contamination of the environment, which can lead to antimicrobial resistance in plants, the soil, and all other food or livestock cultivated in the exposed area." }, { "id": 9961, "title": "Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?", "short_title": "China Environmental AMR Regulation by 2024", "url_title": "China Environmental AMR Regulation by 2024", "slug": "china-environmental-amr-regulation-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.667588Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Antibiotic resistance](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antibiotic-resistance) is one of the biggest threats to global security and health, having the potential for long-lasting effects on agriculture, food security, the environment, and human health.\n\nThis effect is [felt disproportionately by lower and middle-income countries](https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/6/e002104) who often lack the types of regulation, governance, and infrastructure needed for appropriate anti-microbial stewardship. \n\nWhile rapidly successful in some areas, China [continues to suffer](https://www.who.int/china/health-topics/antimicrobial-resistancefrom) the over-prescription and use of antimicrobials and the subsequent antimicrobial resistance. Although use cases have declined enormously since 2011 since the implementation of the One Health National Action Plan, antimicrobial use for hospital inpatients remained at 36% in 2019. In 2017, China reported 73,000 cases of drug-resistant Tuberculosis, representing over 13% of the global level reported. \n\nChina's government has implemented a number of regulations, national action plans, and monitoring systems over the last several years to reduce these numbers, all of which are continuously updated and reported through the WHO [Tripartite Antimicrobial Resistance Country Self Assessment Survey](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/tripartite-amr-country-self-assessment-survey-(tracss)-2019-2020). Despite development in a number of other areas, such as the implementation of a national surveillance system for antimicrobial resistance in humans and a antimicrobial surveillance system for animals with possible exposure to zoonotic pathogenic bacteria, China still does not have, or report to having, any regulation on antimicrobial contamination of the environment, which can lead to antimicrobial resistance in plants, the soil, and all other food or livestock cultivated in the exposed area. \n\n***Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024***\n\nThe question resolves positively if China self-reports under question 10.b) as to having implemented or adopted any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024-01-01. Resolution will be found from [the global database on AMR country progress](http://amrcountryprogress.org/#/map-view). \n\nQuestion 10.b states: \n> \"Country has legislation and/or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials?\"\n\nIf China does not provide an answer to this question (it has not provided it so far), resolution will be negative. If this site is no longer operational and the WHO does not provide the an alternative source for the survey data, or the survey is no longer implemented annually or is discontinued, then this question will resolve ambiguously. If the wording, numbering or order of questions in the survey changes and there is a question equivalent equivalent to the current 10.b, resolution will be based on such question. 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Currently, the Politburo is a group of 25 top officials who oversee the CCP.\n\nXi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China (since 2013) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (since 2012), is General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (since 2012) - General Secretary being the highest Politburo position.\n\n[More than one million CCP officials have been arrested or jailed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-37748241) in the corruption crackdown that began shortly after Mr Xi took power in 2012. Moreover, several [Politburo members were expelled and/or arrested](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-41691917) around 2017, which was seen by many observers as part of an overall strategy by Xi for consolidating power. (For neutrality, it is worth noting that many other observers claimed these Politburo arrests were legitimate and not politically motivated.)\n\nA trend of Politburo member expulsions or arrests may be some indicator of China’s stability and its political system trajectory, which in turn may affect global cooperation. Thus we ask:\n\n***In 2022 and 2023, will one or more members of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if there will be 3 credible news sources reporting a Politburo member expulsion or arrest. 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"short_title": "Cultivated meat approved in China by 2024", "url_title": "Cultivated meat approved in China by 2024", "slug": "cultivated-meat-approved-in-china-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.544370Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.526028Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9957, "title": "Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.544370Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-05-13T20:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-05-13T20:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became [the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). China could be one of its successors.\n\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n>\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\n\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China approves at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption (or issues a more general approval for a class of cultivated meat products) before January 1, 2024. The question resolves positively even if the approval is later rescinded.\n\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\n\nThe prediction for [a similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/) (with a deadline of April 2023) is 52% at the time this question is launched.\n\nSimilar question on Metaculus:\n[By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8844/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-china/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9957, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703964847.694001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703964847.694001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028391590852971008 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.918726032813161, 10.155168835931823, 0.7806743669921696, 0.03529782903195363, 0.09648850891020878, 1.292283978959838, 0.43597884200919984, 0.13195559476121843, 0.2684984322277738, 0.19900463869314283, 0.3928927784779013, 0.1289704543917863, 0.14760766232011072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23783300444378064, 0.19981614468227124, 0.03154169804357445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02217208266329474, 0.041678405071827095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015542651524761263, 0.0017085231367730649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004593398449025965, 0.0, 0.002889427365444531, 0.14311234974287335, 0.06579006148629779, 0.091092763996989, 0.0, 0.0034553230239041848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029800165253926314, 0.0014392356845737695, 0.06945934038586252, 0.032111145980854267, 0.0, 0.0, 1.251971786307364e-05, 0.002862816367876207, 0.004062829023039222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032893971136832775, 0.000557318201301142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002570511411402693, 0.006683617887210922, 0.003983067002032272, 0.0010210771068467064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007459836632631603, 0.0, 0.0, 7.792384123367405e-05, 0.0, 0.011170062112895101, 0.0005015586703766645, 0.012104259622247536, 9.25088976330353e-05, 0.0, 2.6032757219727372e-05, 0.0013183801198076777, 3.403212156462719e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012696730607986522, 0.0006835534342607306, 0.0, 0.0001695005388690276, 5.3345763941052085e-05, 0.013438021219403818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032052026947063073 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.620715871804553, "coverage": 0.9997672666479699, "baseline_score": 21.238870813992953, "spot_peer_score": 12.947827457830043, "peer_archived_score": 23.620715871804553, "baseline_archived_score": 21.238870813992953, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.947827457830043 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703964847.739307, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703964847.739307, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 394, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became [the first country to approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). China could be one of its successors.\n\nAs [the Good Food Institute](https://gfi.org/blog/china-is-making-moves-on-cultivated-meat/) states:\n>\"A National Key R&D Program titled “Green Biological Manufacturing” was launched by China’s Ministry of Science and Technology in late 2020. Plant-based and cultivated meat manufacturing are among the 20+ research projects supported by this grant, which will unleash a reported 600 million RMB ($93M USD) in funding. It is estimated that around 20 million RMB of that will be specifically aimed at developing alternative protein.\"\n\nPeople in China consumed 86 million tonnes of meat in 2020, about 30% of global demand. Thus we ask:" }, { "id": 9952, "title": "Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?", "short_title": "Armed Conflict in South China Sea by 2023", "url_title": "Armed Conflict in South China Sea by 2023", "slug": "armed-conflict-in-south-china-sea-by-2023", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.378672Z", "published_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.044064Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 166, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1422, "type": "tournament", "name": "China and Global Cooperation", "slug": "future-of-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2022-02-25_at_1.32.48_PM.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2022-03-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-05T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T15:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-06-18T16:38:51.360669Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9952, "title": "Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-25T17:08:43.378672Z", "open_time": "2022-03-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-07T11:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-07T11:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will armed conflict begin in the South China Sea before 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/435/armed-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea-by-2019/)\n\n----\n\nIn August 2021, The United States and China clashed over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea - a region recognized as one of the world’s most volatile international hotspots - at a high-level U.N. Security Council meeting on maritime security.\n\nThe sea is known by different names in the countries surrounding it, primarily China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Each of the nations has asserted territorial claims over portions of the sea and its islands, claims which overlap. What is at stake is the control of the busy fishing and shipping region, as well as the vast estimated oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea floor.\n\nThe Spratly Islands compose some of the most hotly contested territory. The 14 islands and around 100 reefs and atolls are occupied by military personnel from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.\n\nDisputes over the South China Sea date back to the 1940s, and continue to this day. China has emerged as the most aggressive claimant, and has built military fortifications, airstrips, and artificial islands in the sea.\n\nIn July 2016, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled in favor of the Philippines that China had no historical right to its claimed territory, typically known as the \"nine-dash-line\" map. Neither China nor Taiwan has accepted the ruling.\n\nAnd over the past five years, the risk of armed conflict has risen as various states have asserted and attacked claims to contested waters and island chains more strongly in response to China’s increasing dominance and the growing involvement of the United States and its allies. In an incident in July 2021, China’s military chased a U.S. warship from an area that it claims in the South China Sea, a statement the U.S. Navy called false.\n\nComments from world leaders suggest that the territorial disputes in the sea could erupt into armed conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken - at the August 2021 U.N. Security Council meeting - responded to China’s increasingly assertive claims to parts of the South China Sea, despite the ruling of an international tribunal five years ago rejecting its claims, by warning that conflict there or in any ocean “would have serious global consequences for security and for commerce.”\n\nChina’s deputy ambassador, Dai Bing, shot back by accusing the United States of becoming “the biggest threat to peace and stability in the South China Sea” and calling its “hype” in the Security Council “entirely politically motivated.”\nThe rhetoric appears to not have escalated since this exchange, yet tensions in the region remain high.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, armed conflict is defined as incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 1 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if at least three credible, verified news sources report that at least 1 battle-related death in the South China Sea, between any state actors, related to enforcing territorial claims, in 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525393.011308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525393.011308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015145823549727428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.7500674421834, 0.40313001576116575, 0.14699635340656453, 0.013874051742744982, 0.3738925291369688, 0.04749199319511978, 0.041358536624999664, 0.172483932335608, 9.340670276164015e-05, 0.10169544548873044, 0.0, 0.00667029726412034, 0.014642241285704316, 0.0, 0.028058853167689055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007565939669305886, 2.9397262977934855e-05, 0.02571135848307994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029883588709427276, 0.03881920842634787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000962488926857442, 0.0, 0.02173756109798202, 0.0009415162563067682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009812367188489459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006645939110615028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028730671591783344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02933281051504426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036831429181796403 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.448953520129606, "coverage": 0.9995003080412806, "baseline_score": 84.59162973793109, "spot_peer_score": 6.675263218731154, "peer_archived_score": 9.448953520129606, "baseline_archived_score": 84.59162973793109, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.675263218731154 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525393.036001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525393.036001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 410, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will armed conflict begin in the South China Sea before 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/435/armed-conflict-in-the-south-china-sea-by-2019/)\n\n----\n\nIn August 2021, The United States and China clashed over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea - a region recognized as one of the world’s most volatile international hotspots - at a high-level U.N. Security Council meeting on maritime security.\n\nThe sea is known by different names in the countries surrounding it, primarily China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Each of the nations has asserted territorial claims over portions of the sea and its islands, claims which overlap. What is at stake is the control of the busy fishing and shipping region, as well as the vast estimated oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea floor.\n\nThe Spratly Islands compose some of the most hotly contested territory. The 14 islands and around 100 reefs and atolls are occupied by military personnel from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.\n\nDisputes over the South China Sea date back to the 1940s, and continue to this day. China has emerged as the most aggressive claimant, and has built military fortifications, airstrips, and artificial islands in the sea.\n\nIn July 2016, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled in favor of the Philippines that China had no historical right to its claimed territory, typically known as the \"nine-dash-line\" map. Neither China nor Taiwan has accepted the ruling.\n\nAnd over the past five years, the risk of armed conflict has risen as various states have asserted and attacked claims to contested waters and island chains more strongly in response to China’s increasing dominance and the growing involvement of the United States and its allies. In an incident in July 2021, China’s military chased a U.S. warship from an area that it claims in the South China Sea, a statement the U.S. Navy called false.\n\nComments from world leaders suggest that the territorial disputes in the sea could erupt into armed conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken - at the August 2021 U.N. Security Council meeting - responded to China’s increasingly assertive claims to parts of the South China Sea, despite the ruling of an international tribunal five years ago rejecting its claims, by warning that conflict there or in any ocean “would have serious global consequences for security and for commerce.”\n\nChina’s deputy ambassador, Dai Bing, shot back by accusing the United States of becoming “the biggest threat to peace and stability in the South China Sea” and calling its “hype” in the Security Council “entirely politically motivated.”\nThe rhetoric appears to not have escalated since this exchange, yet tensions in the region remain high." }, { "id": 9948, "title": "Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia-NATO Conflict before July 2023", "url_title": "Russia-NATO Conflict before July 2023", "slug": "russia-nato-conflict-before-july-2023", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": 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There has been speculation that Ukrainian mathematician [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) [might win](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/) the Fields Medal for her work on sphere packing.\n\nAs of February 26, 2022, the ICM 2022 will be [held virtually](https://www.mathunion.org/fileadmin/IMU/ICM2022/ICM_2022_statement.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if reliable media reports indicate that at least one Fields Medal awardee refuses the Fields Medal or refuses to attend the Fields Medal ceremony (whether physically or virtually)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1657050138.573633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1657050138.573633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.1574326939508319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.190183964153377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3856178388489299, 0.0, 0.10469715519111313, 0.0, 0.0, 1.543977851549064, 0.0011756116749470711, 0.056803272585787844, 0.6275971475575431, 0.4594355656758789, 1.275717450109806, 0.45063315983984675, 0.0, 0.047624532775288074, 0.0, 0.6719996467926511, 0.3887127614144428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05029241033118212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3046693563012396, 0.877925459907288, 0.8219035248766081, 0.4886237798472314, 0.0, 0.2181415033004952, 0.0, 0.3286647279806401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47427559963987037, 0.052332631715494016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06418622260947618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004046517214306785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08590922441201745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005009210557615142 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.60210161764884, "coverage": 0.9970702248393388, "baseline_score": 70.44333072904527, "spot_peer_score": 60.672615028572984, "peer_archived_score": 34.60210161764884, "baseline_archived_score": 70.44333072904527, "spot_peer_archived_score": 60.672615028572984 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1657050138.605712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1657050138.605712, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.983377475142204, 0.016622524857796004 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2022 [International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Congress_of_Mathematicians) is meeting in St. Petersburg. 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There has been speculation that Ukrainian mathematician [Maryna Viazovska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryna_Viazovska) [might win](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7871/female-fields-medalist-at-icm-2022/) the Fields Medal for her work on sphere packing.\n\nAs of February 26, 2022, the ICM 2022 will be [held virtually](https://www.mathunion.org/fileadmin/IMU/ICM2022/ICM_2022_statement.pdf)." }, { "id": 9943, "title": "Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russia Recognizes Transnistria in 2022", "url_title": "Russia Recognizes Transnistria in 2022", "slug": "russia-recognizes-transnistria-in-2022", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T20:00:34.036264Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.334902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9943, "title": "Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T20:00:34.036264Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:25:35.288364Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:25:35.288364Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9999/annexation-of-transnistria/)\n\n----\n\nIn February 2022 [Putin signed a decree](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/politics/donetsk-luhansk-putin-possible-invasion-ukraine/index.html) recognizing Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) as independent territories. [Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is an unrecognised breakaway state in Moldova. Russian is the main official language of the Transnistrian government, and the 2015 census found 29% of the population were ethnically Russian.\n\nVarying degrees of [Russian military presence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_presence_in_Transnistria) have been in Transnistria since 1992. The Moldovan government has repeatedly requested the removal of Russian troops from the territory, including as recently as [september 2021](https://romania.europalibera.org/a/maia-sandu-republica-moldova-onu/31473107.html). Ukranians Intelligence believes that Russia is planning a false-flag operation in Transnistria ([according to Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/russia-is-preparing-a-pretext-for-invading-ukraine-us-official) in January 14, 2022).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if between February 25, 2022 to December 31, 2022, the Russian Federation formally recognizes a soveriegn government in Transnistrian territory, independent from a Moldovan government. For the purposes of this question, \"Transnistria\" will be any government whose capital is within Transnistria's [de jure territory in 2014](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Transnistria_since_Asybaris.jpg), but this territory need not have the same borders or any minimum amount of controlled or claimed territory.\n\nThis question will resolve according to official statements by the Russian Federation.", "fine_print": "[edits:]\n\n*February 27, 2022 - casens: added additional clarification on Russia \"officially recognizing\" Transnistria.*", "post_id": 9943, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672503976.667157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 544, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672503976.667157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 544, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014001662944289797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 41.82905706524338, 1.2033717082123125, 0.8415923370409123, 0.06107202835300683, 0.29941692227091604, 0.06312482163648064, 0.028122704774231604, 0.025702548522840447, 0.08210994672943767, 0.07870976641767971, 0.012250938079104705, 0.02673058615057703, 0.02284581581586195, 0.0, 0.005523567822409243, 0.0016968420498213838, 0.39617730163994685, 2.124905676928656e-08, 9.964595274461997e-05, 0.05678130666778203, 0.0, 0.0006641995739877617, 0.016076204884351655, 0.003755902528934738, 0.0050222200044080165, 0.03336941665218185, 0.003560581152050365, 0.0014821102916633517, 0.0, 0.019024310336991555, 6.007045866718815e-05, 0.0002552924399416356, 2.287632394109804e-06, 0.0019583626547860587, 0.0016966065843797224, 0.0017864690287075523, 0.0024848880316788637, 0.0022956369748673103, 5.516487762086996e-06, 0.0016507444252962216, 0.0017152147048818624, 0.00036077928516137496, 0.0004821725645917929, 0.0004638285208365372, 0.008191126169369154, 2.6863691390305586e-05, 0.0008197322141470172, 0.0008909482057500428, 0.0, 0.0012863362090471905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00058184893080304, 1.8055101594153343e-05, 9.907439587083803e-05, 2.2128650343704403e-07, 7.491975608246614e-07, 0.0, 0.0004811072027154532, 0.0031850180170026575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2594970371188992e-05, 3.1600861263603976e-05, 4.481677426942961e-08, 7.570548888838717e-06, 1.9932012324827004e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.378892451206196e-07, 0.0, 1.2082693517953659e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.498648372360821e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029614018893734257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007471145164422632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015213379766082586 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.930898928383503, "coverage": 0.9999778050467835, "baseline_score": 67.55301066529731, "spot_peer_score": 35.92917975248174, "peer_archived_score": 20.930898928383503, "baseline_archived_score": 67.55301066529731, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.92917975248174 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672503976.727914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 544, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672503976.727914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 544, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1809, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9999/annexation-of-transnistria/)\n\n----\n\nIn February 2022 [Putin signed a decree](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/21/politics/donetsk-luhansk-putin-possible-invasion-ukraine/index.html) recognizing Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) as independent territories. [Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is an unrecognised breakaway state in Moldova. Russian is the main official language of the Transnistrian government, and the 2015 census found 29% of the population were ethnically Russian.\n\nVarying degrees of [Russian military presence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_presence_in_Transnistria) have been in Transnistria since 1992. The Moldovan government has repeatedly requested the removal of Russian troops from the territory, including as recently as [september 2021](https://romania.europalibera.org/a/maia-sandu-republica-moldova-onu/31473107.html). Ukranians Intelligence believes that Russia is planning a false-flag operation in Transnistria ([according to Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/russia-is-preparing-a-pretext-for-invading-ukraine-us-official) in January 14, 2022)." }, { "id": 9942, "title": "Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?", "short_title": "Brent Oil Hits $140 By May 2022", "url_title": "Brent Oil Hits $140 By May 2022", "slug": "brent-oil-hits-140-by-may-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:44:46.023237Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.993520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 120, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-15T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-15T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-02T12:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-02T12:43:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 630, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9942, "title": "Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:44:46.023237Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:23:07.256622Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:23:07.256622Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-02T12:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-02T12:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-02T12:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-15T18:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-15T18:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> “Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 8.5% to [trade at $105.40 per barrel](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/23/business/brent-oil-ukraine-russia/index.html) by 5:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Brent last traded above $100 per barrel in 2014. US oil prices increased 8% to over $100 per barrel.\n\n> “The Ukraine crisis adds another dimension to the OPEC+ coalition's fraught politics. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil and gas, and Moscow wants prices to remain elevated. Saudi Arabia — a major US ally — will now come under intense pressure from developed economies to increase output.”\n\n> “A tight market and armed conflict in Europe is a potent combination. Oil prices could settle as high as $140 per barrel in a worst case scenario where energy flows are disrupted, according to analysts at Capital Economics.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the [Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk) reaches or breached $140/barrel before May 1, 2022. 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Brent last traded above $100 per barrel in 2014. US oil prices increased 8% to over $100 per barrel.\n\n> “The Ukraine crisis adds another dimension to the OPEC+ coalition's fraught politics. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenue from oil and gas, and Moscow wants prices to remain elevated. Saudi Arabia — a major US ally — will now come under intense pressure from developed economies to increase output.”\n\n> “A tight market and armed conflict in Europe is a potent combination. Oil prices could settle as high as $140 per barrel in a worst case scenario where energy flows are disrupted, according to analysts at Capital Economics.”" }, { "id": 9941, "title": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Control of Ukrainian Cities by June", "url_title": "Russian Control of Ukrainian Cities by June", "slug": "russian-control-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:42:22.759781Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.695596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 158, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-26T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-26T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 903, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9941, "title": "Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:42:22.759781Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:16:48.915083Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:16:48.915083Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-26T18:41:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-26T18:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Russia begins its advance inward toward the capital city of Kyiv, the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has [begun to intensify](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-demands-kyiv-forces-surrender-2022-02-24/). While Putin claims he has no intentions to occupy Ukraine militarily, merely to disarm it and purge it of nationalists while installing a pro-Russian government, US intelligence [fears further human rights abuses](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/us-claims-russia-creating-lists-of-ukrainians-to-be-killed-or-sent-to-camps-report) through the installation of war camps.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves if at least 3 of 6 major cities in Ukraine thought to be under threat from Russian attack are reported to be under Russian control by June 1, 2022. The six cities include: Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Mariupol, Kherson, and Kharkiv, many of which [experienced missile blasts](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682) on the night of the invasion on February 23, 2022. \n\nResolution will be determined through reputable media reports, or reports from the Russian or Ukrainian governments.\n\nIn the case of disputed reports, or if\n\n* The Ukrainian government ceases to exit but the Russian government never admits to controlling these cities;\n* A puppet state is installed in Ukraine such that all the cities are under de-facto Russian control without either party acknowledging this;\n\nThen statements from Permanent UNSC members will be sufficient for resolution as well. \n\nIf there is a report issued at any time in the future that declares a city to have fallen before June 2022, even if that report is released after June 2022, it will count toward resolution. If no such reports are available by June 1, 2025 then this question will resolve negatively. \n\nA city is considered fallen if the majority of its raions are under Russian control.\n\nTo trigger positive resolution, three cities must be under Russian control simultaneously. 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"resolution_set_time": "2022-03-02T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T19:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-01T19:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UN Security Council is [preparing to put forward a draft resolution](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-security-council-members-look-act-ukraine-doomed-fail-2022-02-24/) that will condemn Russia for the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. However, it is likely that this resolution will be vetoed by Russia, as it was in a similar vote in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea. \n\nIf Russia vetoes the resolution, it remains possible that the resolution will be taken to the General Assembly to be put up for vote through the use of U.N. Resolution 377. \n\n> \"U.N. Resolution 377 is also known as the “Uniting for Peace” Resolution. In early 1950, the United States pushed through the resolution as a means of circumventing possible Soviet vetoes. The measure states that, in the event that the Security Council cannot maintain international peace, a matter can be taken up by the General Assembly. \"\n\nSo far, Resolution 377 has been applied to the U.N. General Assembly a [total of 5 times.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377#:~:text=of%20armed%20force.%22-,Invocation%20of%20General%20Assembly%20Resolution%20377,form%20of%20Emergency%20Special%20Sessions.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the UN Security Council vetoes the resolution condemning the attack on Ukraine, but if the UN General Assembly votes to approve the resolution separately by invoking U.N Resolution 377. The vote must be 2/3 majority in order for the resolution to pass through the General Assembly.\n\nEDIT 2/28: If the security council invokes U.N Resolution 377, but the General Assembly still votes to support the motion, then this question will also resolve positively. 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However, it is likely that this resolution will be vetoed by Russia, as it was in a similar vote in 2014 during the annexation of Crimea. \n\nIf Russia vetoes the resolution, it remains possible that the resolution will be taken to the General Assembly to be put up for vote through the use of U.N. Resolution 377. \n\n> \"U.N. Resolution 377 is also known as the “Uniting for Peace” Resolution. In early 1950, the United States pushed through the resolution as a means of circumventing possible Soviet vetoes. The measure states that, in the event that the Security Council cannot maintain international peace, a matter can be taken up by the General Assembly. \"\n\nSo far, Resolution 377 has been applied to the U.N. General Assembly a [total of 5 times.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377#:~:text=of%20armed%20force.%22-,Invocation%20of%20General%20Assembly%20Resolution%20377,form%20of%20Emergency%20Special%20Sessions.)" }, { "id": 9939, "title": "Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "short_title": "Kyiv to fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "url_title": "Kyiv to fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "slug": "kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022", "author_id": 113121, "author_username": "AlyssaStevens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:16:56.020475Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.168366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 523, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-20T18:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-20T18:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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