Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4360
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4340", "results": [ { "id": 9937, "title": "Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "short_title": "50K Russo-Ukrainian War deaths in 2022", "url_title": "50K Russo-Ukrainian War deaths in 2022", "slug": "50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:02:29.242189Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.107665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-10T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 772, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9937, "title": "Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:02:29.242189Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:23:55.329118Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:23:55.329118Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-10T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-10T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9935/25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion on Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 50,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was from combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023.\n\nTo determine the number of deaths, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671193141.569854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 791, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671193141.569854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 791, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9464670409816827 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3129427138291354, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8361295476179865e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.254220528923213e-09, 7.16963626706656e-10, 4.286963134015585e-07, 5.4614415447413574e-08, 4.638440867339141e-10, 8.290986395672798e-09, 6.050764792523104e-05, 0.0, 4.2764689128139104e-10, 3.769036610045348e-11, 1.6639748381880855e-08, 1.7095507098949555e-07, 1.775117260650819e-05, 5.3433337561527323e-11, 8.93705988097948e-09, 0.0, 6.614194126999506e-09, 5.67415882346137e-06, 0.0, 3.7465770762997555e-09, 3.106728591592576e-08, 0.0, 0.7929016954124052, 1.0148513039512692e-09, 1.3177870212081518e-07, 5.202447541647047e-08, 1.344414393536812e-08, 0.0024285286135068865, 1.5588020287265456e-07, 4.2476015786453327e-11, 5.465589871321329e-07, 1.1490407055739987e-06, 0.00010736164505295897, 9.214118599051914e-08, 0.00010638014768659457, 0.0, 6.824679312809864e-06, 0.00012627524025140362, 0.00015407283484964948, 3.800172926182066e-07, 3.841637813468863e-07, 0.0, 0.00015684573846705502, 1.861203433097307e-05, 0.0002585913257314067, 2.5982933532988396e-07, 8.35169959338798e-06, 0.00017349247338788393, 1.217106001064293e-05, 0.00030323563412098945, 0.0, 0.8526670628534267, 0.8972255857267211, 0.0028116093142443845, 0.011835914160338655, 1.1614652995765823e-05, 0.0, 0.002544461266019631, 0.00022380504749538728, 7.900050341075142e-05, 4.272634139499023e-06, 0.0006354912372731009, 1.0998224515550716, 0.0, 0.8988331113621016, 6.377223699737569e-06, 3.298161500845317e-06, 0.001281588850691452, 0.00013224435813324558, 0.02884063043315593, 0.0007028826394025327, 0.00010212146629680715, 0.0033796070101637715, 0.0002041541895462126, 0.0003578979097611445, 0.08434062305494185, 0.0003820358269439469, 0.09240310908720627, 0.0009128353106041985, 0.05042343995284482, 0.001590677204429192, 0.0006037157739932416, 0.3502471419641261, 0.8089539801011194, 0.0018234486981013125, 0.07375706092587868, 0.5804591578214022, 1.3199747356776121, 0.5525717757199686, 0.4267352657553799, 1.9924837972476612, 43.501764960501596 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 39.670024969279666, "coverage": 0.8330411909731016, "baseline_score": 71.60578027275642, "spot_peer_score": -0.9141032153336661, "peer_archived_score": 39.670024969279666, "baseline_archived_score": 71.60578027275642, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9141032153336661 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667893488.803648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 772, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667893488.803648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 772, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06952107809956709, 0.9304789219004329 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2406, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9935/25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion on Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342)." }, { "id": 9936, "title": "Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "short_title": "100K Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022", "url_title": "100K Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022", "slug": "100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:00:32.605985Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.766565Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-03T19:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-03T19:32:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 783, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9936, "title": "Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T19:00:32.605985Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:20:23.685616Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:20:23.685616Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-03T19:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-03T19:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-03T19:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9935/25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9937/50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion on Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 100,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was from combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023.\n\nTo determine the number of deaths, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9936, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672500814.111974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 783, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672500814.111974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 783, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9522107632281407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0057023709121751115, 2.4157928237917365e-09, 9.723268973916615e-09, 2.0135138701163357e-06, 1.3900326805279142e-07, 3.957879862176338e-07, 9.928942584045738e-06, 1.4190438951753798e-08, 2.900605796221503e-06, 3.1239321738577814e-05, 1.8533754622784782e-07, 3.501732037406696e-07, 2.0983024856507065e-09, 4.146211507293873e-05, 7.332256200300353e-05, 2.542135945785475e-05, 0.5410341964341085, 2.066574766954965e-06, 5.179775416998604e-06, 8.875224160330569e-05, 3.614359332213052e-05, 2.5259874772828284e-08, 4.641825243323548e-06, 2.8244995318090134e-07, 0.00010796930688307273, 2.7488688638583894e-06, 7.891208305238155e-05, 1.881112643702747e-05, 0.0, 0.0004447721330970004, 0.00037968514567439534, 3.0892283388203252e-06, 1.346708731005979e-05, 1.339697068352662e-06, 0.0002285188901198127, 9.593222696248092e-05, 5.95800315995453e-05, 0.009483931269506328, 0.00010736882651432715, 0.019228391653655225, 0.0, 1.9198794628037727e-06, 0.00037459036958304706, 4.127703028345757e-05, 0.0002885235381531084, 0.0, 1.9683910933572715e-05, 9.280929080176305e-09, 0.0001324138548559833, 0.05109087954038677, 0.0022019530711217183, 0.0, 0.029684536491598534, 0.5313157990476316, 0.030133586438155297, 0.0017905077134035506, 0.0006720285425422094, 0.0, 0.04432485309766137, 0.01175892047713159, 0.00599866125632427, 0.0004687015073732556, 5.764137103299394e-05, 0.0006479988031355215, 0.0005465373915189867, 1.1425280590922435, 5.1632105311990475e-05, 0.0004831674824363083, 0.000180962554696784, 0.004597886021421445, 0.0003303394958217463, 0.0009908754364596612, 0.0, 0.4108577082665308, 0.027257546011359088, 0.0035803647768546287, 0.007850440122796067, 0.00027444440689760707, 0.0015940490447642803, 0.23615501691974794, 0.3350731437600827, 0.0004127801181087567, 0.0014700784138631396, 0.00034150878338605814, 1.465589001787253, 0.004348302155555201, 0.022574639082105333, 0.01900469887945441, 0.961187683112275, 1.5801208991731859, 0.041268005565905624, 0.04301221918499791, 0.5934609224340739, 0.6507059031699481, 1.4492792535716734, 1.334985483495977, 1.1638219451327354, 3.3069459224315145, 38.36656188822199 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672500814.177222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 783, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672500814.177222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 783, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04140050582732091, 0.9585994941726791 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2866, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9935/25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9937/50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion on Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342)." }, { "id": 9935, "title": "Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "short_title": "25K Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022", "url_title": "25K Russo-Ukrainian War Deaths in 2022", "slug": "25k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-02-24T18:58:08.466910Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.440518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 149, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T03:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9935, "title": "Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T18:58:08.466910Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:11:24.054190Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:11:24.054190Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-01T03:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-01T03:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-01T03:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9937/50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion into Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Milley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if more than 25,000 people die in the Russo-Ukrainian War during 2022. Deaths may include civilian and military casualties, and should count deaths whose primary cause was combat with opposing forces. If other countries become involved in this conflict then deaths involving those countries will be included. This question will resolve based on information available on March 1, 2023.\n\nTo determine the number of deaths, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1668482609.626667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 966, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1668482609.626667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 966, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9752536069956075 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11653213040274026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.9350594303839766e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.9699425723136265e-12, 1.0820391707486834e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0121365930218617e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 7.503303072453523e-13, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1162262521334507e-08, 5.623780009133241e-09, 8.633506744546227e-14, 1.2865114554056266e-10, 0.0, 5.166258396056945e-09, 1.9018301682009708e-11, 3.724050734764023e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 4.4378875893612705e-08, 0.0, 3.822069330303561e-12, 3.6393977694194444e-09, 0.0, 2.569034808930014e-07, 3.483005209563675e-11, 3.779714361830437e-11, 1.9612581992992942e-12, 0.0, 4.2682988191622035e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6370461429392253e-11, 3.4967982737666674e-08, 1.2754121725352418e-09, 0.0, 4.511835585399288e-10, 1.9581636680014892e-09, 3.580391504089975e-07, 0.3019677845810059, 0.0, 2.9690690228800218e-09, 0.0, 1.0879433751604053e-08, 1.923235639614408e-09, 6.062292676768213e-07, 0.0, 1.1206815056844644e-08, 0.0018664269756266966, 4.087182176998797e-08, 2.9016308941743185e-06, 2.8419190678779097e-09, 0.3567991995145135, 0.0003532106348446625, 1.4479693269195682e-06, 2.4766934005729698e-05, 1.6243986785255084e-05, 6.583830313670472e-05, 6.563238814301917e-05, 2.245923265441068e-06, 0.4967721632048893, 0.1228710300555702, 1.0552754252868794e-05, 7.565006563156347e-05, 4.7545430328030335e-09, 8.408313388945872e-09, 1.7291598611197327e-10, 0.0, 0.10938180512150503, 0.0, 0.0, 8.962452725327463e-05, 0.0013471247042533595, 0.03209681323613602, 0.0004826515875802889, 0.9376227098889095, 1.456346697724815e-07, 2.1189142528391762e-07, 0.0033691159105791956, 0.6381696369109706, 0.0006412111896595093, 0.8374990668660256, 0.8286178788572537, 0.04167130938943359, 0.9726302047199245, 0.7612701068813243, 1.6304092584514858, 52.469694111141905 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.750556693318577, "coverage": 0.5072362380822036, "baseline_score": 48.80657241557974, "spot_peer_score": -7.01611218863822, "peer_archived_score": 11.750556693318577, "baseline_archived_score": 48.80657241557974, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.01611218863822 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1659166674.149847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 857, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1659166674.149847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 857, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03216656908462068, 0.9678334309153793 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1988, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022)\n* [Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9937/50k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n* [Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9936/100k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nRussia's invasion into Ukraine began with all indications saying it will be large scale. Prior to the invasion, General Mark Milley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342)." }, { "id": 9933, "title": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "short_title": "NATO Article 5 Invocation by March 31, 2022", "url_title": "NATO Article 5 Invocation by March 31, 2022", "slug": "nato-article-5-invocation-by-march-31-2022", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T18:17:32.372452Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.411650Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-31T18:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-31T18:03:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 653, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1426, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ukraine-flag-big-2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:22:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:40:57.715704Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9933, "title": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T18:17:32.372452Z", "open_time": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T02:07:11.087138Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T02:07:11.087138Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-31T18:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-31T18:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-31T18:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-23T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10197/nato-article-5-invocation-by-june-30-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9930/russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Article 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_6) of the North Atlantic Treaty commits each member state of NATO to consider an armed attack against any member state to be an armed attack against them all. It has been invoked [only once in NATO history](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html): by the United States after the [attacks on September 11, 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve in the event that Article 5 of the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm) is invoked by a NATO country. 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It has been invoked [only once in NATO history](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html): by the United States after the [attacks on September 11, 2001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks)." }, { "id": 9930, "title": "Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Invasion of Another Country in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Invasion of Another Country in 2022", "slug": "russian-invasion-of-another-country-in-2022", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-24T17:57:42.851648Z", "published_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.215011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 138, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 23, 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between February 24, 2022 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that >100 Russian ground troops have entered another country. From the statement, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders and without permission of the currently recognized government of that country or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from Feb 24, 2022 to Jan 1, 2023.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the addition of troops to **Transnistria will not trigger** positive resolution as troops have been present in that region since before the beginning of the recent conflict in February 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672499384.187996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672499384.187996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013062426317574075 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 63.38417603381856, 1.635208623938356, 0.19870657759805432, 0.8857780132648527, 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federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T16:01:06.788778Z", "open_time": "2022-03-03T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-03T16:14:05.087840Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-03T16:14:05.087840Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-01T20:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-01T20:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-01T20:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-22T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia) \n>Martial law is defined in the Russian law as a special legal regime that is introduced in conditions of external aggression or its threat. (...) In modern Russia, martial law has never been introduced. \n\nOn February 24, 2022, Russia has invaded its neighbor Ukraine. This increases the probability of martial law being instated in Russia.\n\nMartial law allows the Russian government to restrict various freedoms of its citizens, including installation of a curfew, restriction of freedom of movement, restriction of choice of place of residence, forced labor for defense needs, seizure of private property with subsequent compensation, and internment of unreliable citizens and citizens of aggressor countries.\n\n***Before April 2022, will martial law be on in any five [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?***\n\n\nThe question will resolve positive if and only if the answer is deemed positive according to credible media sources OR official declarations made by the Russian Government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648457926.399202, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, 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nuclear power plant before 2042?", "created_at": "2022-02-24T06:34:54.148583Z", "open_time": "2022-03-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-01-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a [period of transition](https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/emissions-reduction) in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. Australia has [never built a nuclear power station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia) in the electric grid.\n\nFossil fuels account for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to the [Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource](https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption). Of fossil fuel consumption, oil makes up 40%, coal 30%, and natural gas 30%. The share of coal in the electricity mix [has declined](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~AUS&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Coal&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total), from 80% in 2000 to 54% in 2020.\n\nWhile Australia's nuclear industry is quite small and consiststs of a [single reactor facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-pool_Australian_lightwater_reactor) opened in 1958 at Lucas Heights in NSW, producing industrial and medical isotopes, a [recent military agreement](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/nuclear-submarine-base-shortlist-brisbane-newcastle-port-kembla/100887204) has increased the likelihood of Australia operating additional nuclear reactors - albeit in the form of nuclear powered submarines.\n\nThe Howard government commissioned the Switowski Report in 2006 which [concluded](https://www.smh.com.au/national/nuclear-power-in-australia-within-10-years-switkowski-20061127-gdowxg.html) that nuclear power could compete with coal if a carbon credit system was imposed on or by Australia. In response, the Labor party adopted an [anti-nuclear platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia), and won the 2007 election.\n\n[A September 2021 poll](https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia) from Essential found 50% of Australian respondents in favor of nuclear energy, with 32% opposed, although a similar share (20%) were strongly in favor as those strongly opposed (17%).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Australia builds at least one fission-based nuclear power plant on or within 10 km of Australian land before January 1, 2042. The plant must be built and begin producing electricity for the commercial power grid before January 1, 2042 to resolve the question positively.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear power reactor\" refers to fission-based power generation which excludes other nuclear power generation methods such as fusion / magentic confinement technologies such as Tokamaks or any other non-fission device that might be developed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9911, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763368637.018602, "end_time": 1772516923.273498, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763368637.018602, "end_time": 1772516923.273498, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26299276576055003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.4606279400945458, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4314919725954758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 1.0188554884170147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0790051830574851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5386657985125205, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.04289084712097685, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287664.832658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287664.832658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8314379542527042, 0.16856204574729577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a [period of transition](https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/emissions-reduction) in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. Australia has [never built a nuclear power station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia) in the electric grid.\n\nFossil fuels account for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to the [Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource](https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption). Of fossil fuel consumption, oil makes up 40%, coal 30%, and natural gas 30%. The share of coal in the electricity mix [has declined](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~AUS&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Coal&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total), from 80% in 2000 to 54% in 2020.\n\nWhile Australia's nuclear industry is quite small and consiststs of a [single reactor facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-pool_Australian_lightwater_reactor) opened in 1958 at Lucas Heights in NSW, producing industrial and medical isotopes, a [recent military agreement](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/nuclear-submarine-base-shortlist-brisbane-newcastle-port-kembla/100887204) has increased the likelihood of Australia operating additional nuclear reactors - albeit in the form of nuclear powered submarines.\n\nThe Howard government commissioned the Switowski Report in 2006 which [concluded](https://www.smh.com.au/national/nuclear-power-in-australia-within-10-years-switkowski-20061127-gdowxg.html) that nuclear power could compete with coal if a carbon credit system was imposed on or by Australia. In response, the Labor party adopted an [anti-nuclear platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia), and won the 2007 election.\n\n[A September 2021 poll](https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia) from Essential found 50% of Australian respondents in favor of nuclear energy, with 32% opposed, although a similar share (20%) were strongly in favor as those strongly opposed (17%)." }, { "id": 9899, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Lviv in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Lviv in 2022", "slug": "russian-troops-in-lviv-in-2022", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-22T14:36:20.177001Z", "published_at": "2022-02-24T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.594377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-24T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-24T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 371, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9899, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-22T14:36:20.177001Z", "open_time": "2022-02-24T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-24T03:23:50.953546Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-24T03:23:50.953546Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://old.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n---\n\nAs of 2/22/2022, Russia had begun a military incursion into eastern Ukraine, in separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, which was described by UK authorities as a \"renewed invasion of the country,โ [as reported](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/russia-invaded-ukraine-tanks-boris-johnson-b983810.html) by The Standard and by an official of the US government as \"the beginning of an invasion,\" [according to Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/22/white-house-beginning-invasion-russia-ukraine-00010589).\n\nLviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and located only about 70 km (43 miles) from the Polish border, is the city to which the embassy personnel of [the United States](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-moving-remaining-ukraine-embassy-staff-kyiv-lviv-blinken-2022-02-14/), [Israel](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-shuts-kyiv-embassy-moves-diplomats-in-ukraine-to-western-city-of-lviv-1.10625849) and [the UK](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ukraine), have been moved, having abandoned Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion. For further background please see [\"Ukraineโs Lviv becomes โwestern capitalโ as some diplomats leave Kyiv\" by David L. Stern *Washington Post*, 18 February 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/18/ukraine-russia-lviv-war/). The US has also [discussed plans for Ukrainian President Zelensky to move to Lviv](https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/595220-us-has-discussed-plans-for-ukrainian-leader-to-leave-kyiv-if) should Russia launch a full-scale invasion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Lviv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Lviv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukrainian government that is recognized by the US government as legitimate. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9899, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672455486.390276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 371, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672455486.390276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 371, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015432685155413677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 33.15504426484226, 1.3215186970942518, 0.08927699116221972, 0.16743884207375778, 1.9618993931347593, 0.0, 0.0018871737869779852, 0.0004032970616017195, 0.001512161870940788, 0.024296292194036978, 0.0, 0.004334776083858008, 0.0, 9.502597485039125e-05, 0.0010701024424542365, 0.0005936618255031806, 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3.942120828659472e-06, 0.0004045433306184944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010026331415037303, 1.4697644774778925e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0318732592958865e-06, 3.6754173291408053e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002357713285194947, 0.0, 7.937541817636395e-06, 0.0, 6.703431115161827e-06, 3.8056250816330083e-06, 0.00011931084603045441 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 56.737465509677556, "coverage": 0.9998426205730212, "baseline_score": 89.16627851293032, "spot_peer_score": -21.00979301135828, "peer_archived_score": 56.737465509677556, "baseline_archived_score": 89.16627851293032, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.00979301135828 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672455486.430825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 371, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672455486.430825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 371, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://old.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n- [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n---\n\nAs of 2/22/2022, Russia had begun a military incursion into eastern Ukraine, in separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, which was described by UK authorities as a \"renewed invasion of the country,โ [as reported](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/russia-invaded-ukraine-tanks-boris-johnson-b983810.html) by The Standard and by an official of the US government as \"the beginning of an invasion,\" [according to Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/22/white-house-beginning-invasion-russia-ukraine-00010589).\n\nLviv, the largest city in western Ukraine and located only about 70 km (43 miles) from the Polish border, is the city to which the embassy personnel of [the United States](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-moving-remaining-ukraine-embassy-staff-kyiv-lviv-blinken-2022-02-14/), [Israel](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-shuts-kyiv-embassy-moves-diplomats-in-ukraine-to-western-city-of-lviv-1.10625849) and [the UK](https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ukraine), have been moved, having abandoned Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion. For further background please see [\"Ukraineโs Lviv becomes โwestern capitalโ as some diplomats leave Kyiv\" by David L. Stern *Washington Post*, 18 February 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/18/ukraine-russia-lviv-war/). The US has also [discussed plans for Ukrainian President Zelensky to move to Lviv](https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/595220-us-has-discussed-plans-for-ukrainian-leader-to-leave-kyiv-if) should Russia launch a full-scale invasion." }, { "id": 9875, "title": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "short_title": "1000+ RU soldiers killed by UA in 2022+23", "url_title": "1000+ RU soldiers killed by UA in 2022+23", "slug": "1000-ru-soldiers-killed-by-ua-in-202223", "author_id": 112733, "author_username": "wobblybobby", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-18T22:38:15.358938Z", "published_at": "2022-02-20T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.338945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-20T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-24T00:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-04T10:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T10:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-24T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-20T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 358, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9875, "title": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-18T22:38:15.358938Z", "open_time": "2022-02-20T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-20T13:05:02.006621Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-20T13:05:02.006621Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T10:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-24T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-24T00:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-04T10:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-24T00:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn late 2021 and early 2022, several Western governments began publicly expressing concern about a potential [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis) outside the previously occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html) reported on January 14, 2022:\n\n>โIf Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance โ intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles โ would ratchet up significantly,โ said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. โAnd if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.โ\n\n[NBC reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-readies-insurgency-russia-prepares-possible-war-n1288778) on February 8, 2022:\n\n>โEven with the disparity of forces, they can move in very fast and quite successfully, but then holding it would be a disaster,โ said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense who left office in 2020. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraineโs military is fully aware of its weaknesses when it comes to a conventional face-to-face war and that plans for an insurgency or guerrilla-style resistance movement led by Ukraineโs military are now the governmentโs primary strategy โ even if the Ministry of Defense has not stated so publicly.\n\nOthers have been skeptical that a \"serious\" Ukrainian insurgency will take place, for instance on January 26, 2022, [Richard Hanania predicted](https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/russia-as-the-great-satan-in-the) \"Washington is now deluding itself into believing that it can help facilitate an insurgency in Ukraine. This will not happen.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russia invades Ukraine in the year 2022, and between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2024, at least 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed by Ukrainian armed forces in Ukraine.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, we will use the terms as defined in [Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/): we will consider Russia to have invaded Ukraine if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, either the Russian Federation or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will be disregarded. If there is no such invasion of Ukraine by Russia, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nTo determine the count of deaths of Russian soldiers, Metaculus Admins will consider all relevant and credible sources, including adding together counts from separate sources (so long that it can be determined that the sources are referring to different deaths and not double-counting). Deaths may include any members of the Russian armed services, but not Russian civillians.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the deaths of members of the Russian armed services must occur within the boundaries of the nation of Ukraine as internationally recognized on January 1, 2014. Therefore attacks conducted within Crimea or the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the Ukrainian armed forces may be made up of members of the Ukrainian armed forces; members of the Ukrainian police, border guards, intelligence agencies, or similar government personnel; militia; or armed or unarmed civilians. Non-Ukrainians working in conjunction with Ukrainians count as long as they are not members of a non-Ukrainian military. As the exact identity of insurgents may not always be clear, any deaths of Russian armed service personnel by violence within Ukrainian borders will be assumed to be from Ukrainian insurgents *unless* the identity of the attackers can be determined otherwise, or the purpose of the killing is clearly non-political/military.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"members of the [Russian armed services](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Armed_Forces)\" will include any members of the Russian Ground Forces, Navy, Aerospace Forces, Strategic Rocket Forces, Airborne Troops, Federal Security Service (FSB), Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), the Federal Protective Service (FSO), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Main Directorate of the General Staff (GRU), National Guard, or Border Service. Members of the paramilitary organization [the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) will qualify, as they have operated out of Russian military bases and in close coordination with the Russian armed forces in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Deaths of civillians, whether Ukrainian or Russian, will be excluded.", "post_id": 9875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647505041.14878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647505041.14878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9768901442650721 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0017920602399419774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5611354072782058e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0420581642117735e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1833108001957262e-05, 0.11867234183957454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.731851251292164e-06, 4.648945119571522e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.825851061517233e-08, 6.355179568827059e-06, 9.385543907163477e-06, 0.0, 0.07774824654944802, 5.492573534750846e-06, 4.674426451421325e-06, 4.6008318139232245e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5946255002532494e-06, 0.0, 2.6780317488176873e-05, 0.0, 0.6878505711194999, 0.14604529190132048, 0.021044183092344678, 0.0, 1.0352886993322942e-05, 7.211859754671745e-08, 0.2920512748024527, 7.3311672212628926e-06, 0.0, 8.433142524036385e-06, 0.0, 0.0018649701032606826, 2.1212781864071363e-06, 0.010292102072203432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39573958733920916, 0.01675015176319137, 1.2368521366110498e-06, 0.0, 0.024132373992634956, 0.8463383846160994, 1.2474147014760504, 0.14314617936209972, 0.7478858638567856, 31.512217975046084 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1120442034661495, "coverage": 0.09074266221046363, "baseline_score": 8.34180819171306, "spot_peer_score": -38.69979944422231, "peer_archived_score": 1.1120442034661495, "baseline_archived_score": 8.34180819171306, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.69979944422231 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647505041.198418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647505041.198418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 357, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.028092418674163788, 0.9719075813258362 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 680, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9744/10k-russo-ukrainian-war-deaths-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nIn late 2021 and early 2022, several Western governments began publicly expressing concern about a potential [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis) outside the previously occupied territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html) reported on January 14, 2022:\n\n>โIf Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance โ intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles โ would ratchet up significantly,โ said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. โAnd if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.โ\n\n[NBC reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-readies-insurgency-russia-prepares-possible-war-n1288778) on February 8, 2022:\n\n>โEven with the disparity of forces, they can move in very fast and quite successfully, but then holding it would be a disaster,โ said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense who left office in 2020. Zagorodnyuk said that Ukraineโs military is fully aware of its weaknesses when it comes to a conventional face-to-face war and that plans for an insurgency or guerrilla-style resistance movement led by Ukraineโs military are now the governmentโs primary strategy โ even if the Ministry of Defense has not stated so publicly.\n\nOthers have been skeptical that a \"serious\" Ukrainian insurgency will take place, for instance on January 26, 2022, [Richard Hanania predicted](https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/russia-as-the-great-satan-in-the) \"Washington is now deluding itself into believing that it can help facilitate an insurgency in Ukraine. This will not happen.\"" }, { "id": 9825, "title": "Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?", "short_title": "Polish gay marriage by 2030", "url_title": "Polish gay marriage by 2030", "slug": "polish-gay-marriage-by-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-13T05:15:19.646170Z", "published_at": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:57:11.387046Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9825, "title": "Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?", "created_at": "2022-02-13T05:15:19.646170Z", "open_time": "2022-04-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T01:01:01.473434Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T01:01:01.473434Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been significant controversy around [LGBT rights in Poland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland). Homosexual activity has been legal in Poland since 1932. Nonetheless, some areas of Poland have declared themselves to be [LGBT-free zones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#%22LGBT-free_zones%22) and Poland currently does not recognize civil unions or gay marriage. The population generally [opposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#Social_attitudes_and_public_opinion) [gay marriage](https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/lgbti-survey-country-data_poland.pdf). \n The ruling [PiS](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-eu-lgbt/poland-will-not-let-eu-force-it-into-allowing-gay-marriages-says-justice-minister-idUSKCN24L2E7) opposes gay marriage, but many opponents of PiS, such as former President [Waลฤsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lech_Wa%C5%82%C4%99sa#Post-presidency) also have conservative views on LGBT issues.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if marriages can take place anywhere within Poland between people of the same sex before 2030. It is permissible if the marriages can only take place in some parts of Poland but not other parts", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762946890.646632, "end_time": 1764406320.675431, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762946890.646632, "end_time": 1764406320.675431, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1834536969891645 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.200030107856867, 0.02493491631881938, 0.009306164471308392, 0.5031089174857062, 0.7150015733187638, 2.6527691593008362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007369602243589552, 0.9327024086211493, 0.8418541260300649, 0.650426169160256, 0.5896732630400193, 0.9108522169827673, 0.7891714012620212, 1.9137002101706124, 0.6828718186443462, 0.827794974721009, 0.553297123115172, 0.0, 0.9183758142169006, 0.3608175393747998, 0.02529677777500878, 0.0, 0.49971611959529016, 0.11151625871962208, 0.0, 0.06054606422598463, 0.7521846750799247, 0.0, 0.0997284802094342, 0.0, 0.08030113896900543, 0.01505059801104587, 0.19756391753823033, 0.3274372508044043, 0.0, 0.00551737719756209, 0.02034849615368459, 0.0, 1.1998971312392404, 0.012874290616542414, 0.0, 0.018954671844720643, 0.0, 0.05742398702287848, 0.0499899894718049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04383845771759602, 0.2959440855994997, 0.023544217695779756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006337749946712698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02202698944758828, 0.0, 0.029139815099320256, 0.0, 0.00026717985576411174, 0.5341464470741567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016250367944418115, 0.0045822019105017245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.232809723883435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04313223747563511 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289274.639879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289274.639879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8992743667832557, 0.10072563321674435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 314, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been significant controversy around [LGBT rights in Poland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland). Homosexual activity has been legal in Poland since 1932. Nonetheless, some areas of Poland have declared themselves to be [LGBT-free zones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#%22LGBT-free_zones%22) and Poland currently does not recognize civil unions or gay marriage. The population generally [opposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#Social_attitudes_and_public_opinion) [gay marriage](https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/lgbti-survey-country-data_poland.pdf). \n The ruling [PiS](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-eu-lgbt/poland-will-not-let-eu-force-it-into-allowing-gay-marriages-says-justice-minister-idUSKCN24L2E7) opposes gay marriage, but many opponents of PiS, such as former President [Waลฤsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lech_Wa%C5%82%C4%99sa#Post-presidency) also have conservative views on LGBT issues." }, { "id": 9797, "title": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Microsoft Acquisition of Activision Blizzard", "url_title": "Microsoft Acquisition of Activision Blizzard", "slug": "microsoft-acquisition-of-activision-blizzard", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-10T02:35:55.896054Z", "published_at": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.160906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T01:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T01:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:17:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 205, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9797, "title": "Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-10T02:35:55.896054Z", "open_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-13T23:28:52.082162Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-13T23:28:52.082162Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T01:33:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T01:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. Microsoft stated that it expects the deal to be completed in its 2023 fiscal year, which ends on June 30, 2023. \n\nBloomberg [reports](https://archive.is/4k6DR) that the US Federal Trade Commission is reviewing the deal as possibly harmful to competition, stating that the agency \"has vowed more aggressive policing of deals.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as positive based on a Microsoft press release stating that it has acquired Activision Blizzard. It resolves as negative immediately upon an announcement by Microsoft that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed by June 30, 2023, this resolves as negative", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688078789.689971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688078789.689971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03332259718347271 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.789400209490214, 12.267785417864907, 0.47553602232200815, 0.5782280724368782, 0.06055837905336188, 0.3583657619000571, 0.5680227421115014, 0.14395864185440438, 0.0, 0.3070551363683564, 0.05618998420849408, 0.0, 0.006446599040485253, 0.05181869063771449, 0.0, 0.9879545965561304, 0.37933928974191206, 0.0, 0.00031190151879218977, 0.0, 0.046683888158446624, 0.161640970461255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006636065938089737, 0.00033772934322848073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024412722288812957, 0.0, 0.028191962726566863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003177366695881074, 0.0, 0.039665060900150144, 0.07094686885647002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4928299014698528, 0.10267090690733588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014359237491786054, 0.023877568457783438, 0.001249165166648639, 0.0, 0.0023074556492291586, 0.0, 0.08090018851147011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004468270776566525, 0.0, 0.0020420876049028485, 0.006802656983915637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002061576958015441, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008880442761665042, 2.227000643341719e-05, 0.00038201636441133644, 0.0004598678085189234, 6.589781301318028e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015959927596410374, 0.00010927218911655428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028051360432352235, 0.008409199035182318, 3.4203411660589862e-06, 0.002602661254697267, 0.0, 0.00013192127878130518, 0.00015845234054260776, 0.00042629347562168305, 0.0, 0.0, 8.55012230837459e-05, 7.322383758335559e-05, 0.0, 0.00013200691424023869, 0.0, 0.0014583615252429017, 0.00021058402505944724, 0.0, 1.6449162888541416e-06, 0.0, 6.912531865348625e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01168098149929072 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 47.834885996870675, "coverage": 0.9998854635950403, "baseline_score": -81.09304354051216, "spot_peer_score": -0.2467328156011485, "peer_archived_score": 47.834885996870675, "baseline_archived_score": -81.09304354051216, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.2467328156011485 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688078789.73068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688078789.73068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988101377597066, 0.0011898622402934068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 804, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. Microsoft stated that it expects the deal to be completed in its 2023 fiscal year, which ends on June 30, 2023. \n\nBloomberg [reports](https://archive.is/4k6DR) that the US Federal Trade Commission is reviewing the deal as possibly harmful to competition, stating that the agency \"has vowed more aggressive policing of deals.\"" }, { "id": 9796, "title": "Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?", "short_title": "EU member first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "EU member first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "eu-member-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-10T01:21:20.533263Z", "published_at": "2022-02-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T10:19:04.721692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9796, "title": "Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?", "created_at": "2022-02-10T01:21:20.533263Z", "open_time": "2022-02-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). \n\nThe [European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) and the associated [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) have allowed for the movement of people and goods across Europe. Europeans are consumers of biotechnology technology in other countries. For instance, [40% of all fertility tourism in Europe is in Spain](https://www.tourism-review.com/fertility-tourism-developing-fast-in-spain-news10817) and [5% of the preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.szmc.org.il/eng/Departments/Medical-Genetics-Institute/PGD/) in Europe is handled through the Zohar Unit of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Israel, a country that has [substantial scientific cooperation with the EU](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-eu-sign-scientific-agreement-1.5251196). Within Europe itself, [Denmark has the highest proportion of births from in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45512312) though Israel has more IVF cycles per capita. [Opinion polling of European countries](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that few Europeans believe \"it would be appropriate to change a babyโs genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", but many countries are not surveyed, for instance Denmark and Estonia.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a member state of the European Union is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence within a single calendar year, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.", "fine_print": "It's within a single calendar year, and a tie counts as yes. It only resolves ambiguous if no country with >1M people has >10%, the population count is in whatever the reference year. So yes if Estonia goes below 1M it will not trigger resolution.", "post_id": 9796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761959235.838877, "end_time": 1765064347.196444, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761959235.838877, "end_time": 1765064347.196444, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23692977786447686 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2119575281013026, 0.9618915981092084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9834827237876187, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.216129793487256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3352040015616927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.19492857905496438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09975442251757294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9512127992725965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289666.409381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289666.409381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6987895152574168, 0.30121048474258316 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). \n\nThe [European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) and the associated [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) have allowed for the movement of people and goods across Europe. Europeans are consumers of biotechnology technology in other countries. For instance, [40% of all fertility tourism in Europe is in Spain](https://www.tourism-review.com/fertility-tourism-developing-fast-in-spain-news10817) and [5% of the preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.szmc.org.il/eng/Departments/Medical-Genetics-Institute/PGD/) in Europe is handled through the Zohar Unit of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Israel, a country that has [substantial scientific cooperation with the EU](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-eu-sign-scientific-agreement-1.5251196). Within Europe itself, [Denmark has the highest proportion of births from in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45512312) though Israel has more IVF cycles per capita. [Opinion polling of European countries](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that few Europeans believe \"it would be appropriate to change a babyโs genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", but many countries are not surveyed, for instance Denmark and Estonia." }, { "id": 9795, "title": "Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?", "short_title": "Republicans Support ES for IQ More Than Dems", "url_title": "Republicans Support ES for IQ More Than Dems", "slug": "republicans-support-es-for-iq-more-than-dems", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-10T01:06:51.936888Z", "published_at": "2022-02-19T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:14:59.427726Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-19T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-19T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9795, "title": "Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?", "created_at": "2022-02-10T01:06:51.936888Z", "open_time": "2022-02-19T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-20T23:56:17.135067Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-20T23:56:17.135067Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). In particular, [two](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/) questions asked about embryo selection for intelligence in the United States.\n\nA [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found that 17% of Americans said it would be appropriate to \"change a babyโs genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", and [another poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/) found Democratic support at 18% compared to Republican support at 13%. [Some on the left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit) have referred to embryo selection as eugenics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the percentage of Republican members of Congress who vote to permit embryo selection for intelligence or vote against banning embryo selection for intelligence is greater than the corresponding percentage for Democratic members of Congress on the first occasion a federal bill on the matter is taken to a vote. If the percentage is less, it resolves negatively. If the percentage is equal, it resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, if within a span of 4 years, 75% or more congresspeople in a given party all change membership to another party, that second party will be considered the same party under a new name. If no such vote comes up by 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9795, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760738971.648925, "end_time": 1763733038.58118, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760738971.648925, "end_time": 1763733038.58118, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.45252094135428866 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.15321840682787216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16602166244879513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2183906593441009, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.4809786573605918, 0.3045969438894153, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.6620090497564879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.43563441074387765, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287580.485009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287580.485009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7916510103449025, 0.20834898965509754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). In particular, [two](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/) questions asked about embryo selection for intelligence in the United States.\n\nA [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found that 17% of Americans said it would be appropriate to \"change a babyโs genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", and [another poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/) found Democratic support at 18% compared to Republican support at 13%. [Some on the left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit) have referred to embryo selection as eugenics." }, { "id": 9791, "title": "Will รric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?", "short_title": "รric Zemmour French President 2022", "url_title": "รric Zemmour French President 2022", "slug": "eric-zemmour-french-president-2022", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-09T15:46:23.635784Z", "published_at": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.060667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9791, "title": "Will รric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-09T15:46:23.635784Z", "open_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-12T13:24:40.407019Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-12T13:24:40.407019Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-24T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions:\n- [รric Zemmour in the 2nd round](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9790/%25C3%25A9ric-zemmour-in-the-2nd-round/)\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour):\n\n>รric Justin Lรฉon Zemmour (French: [eสik zemuส]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face ร l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election.\n\n>Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couchรฉ on France 2 (2006โ2011) and รa se dispute on I-Tรฉlรฉ (2003โ2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Premiรจre, together with literary critic รric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide franรงais) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10]\n\n>Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal.\n\n>Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquรชte, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible media indicate that รric Zemmour won the French presidential election in 2022, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649615200.152565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649615200.152565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 155, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018456815393807415 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.45346057019104, 0.6849669928195519, 0.35368278693275035, 0.015414195632643738, 0.2223675106519192, 0.004978439044534506, 0.00021392189247772966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12871280404371388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15460305942489125, 0.0440460084447431, 0.0, 0.18645413711737552, 0.03954345280505088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11047689973738539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004741114797025278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00375586601765611 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.305213451001235, "coverage": 0.9983703470109907, "baseline_score": 97.81972342136267, "spot_peer_score": 55.26105043358144, "peer_archived_score": 12.305213451001235, "baseline_archived_score": 97.81972342136267, "spot_peer_archived_score": 55.26105043358144 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649489631.806671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649489631.806671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions:\n- [รric Zemmour in the 2nd round](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9790/%25C3%25A9ric-zemmour-in-the-2nd-round/)\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour):\n\n>รric Justin Lรฉon Zemmour (French: [eสik zemuส]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face ร l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election.\n\n>Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couchรฉ on France 2 (2006โ2011) and รa se dispute on I-Tรฉlรฉ (2003โ2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Premiรจre, together with literary critic รric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide franรงais) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10]\n\n>Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal.\n\n>Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquรชte, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system." }, { "id": 9790, "title": "Will รric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "short_title": "รric Zemmour in the 2nd round 2022", "url_title": "รric Zemmour in the 2nd round 2022", "slug": "eric-zemmour-in-the-2nd-round-2022", "author_id": 112639, "author_username": "emilowk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-09T15:43:12.593998Z", "published_at": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.766325Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-10T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-10T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9790, "title": "Will รric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "created_at": "2022-02-09T15:43:12.593998Z", "open_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-13T22:44:28.534719Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-13T22:44:28.534719Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-10T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-10T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-10T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related question:\n- [รric Zemmour French president](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9791/%25C3%25A9ric-zemmour-french-president/)\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour):\n\n>รric Justin Lรฉon Zemmour (French: [eสik zemuส]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face ร l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election.\n\n>Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couchรฉ on France 2 (2006โ2011) and รa se dispute on I-Tรฉlรฉ (2003โ2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Premiรจre, together with literary critic รric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide franรงais) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10]\n\n>Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal.\n\n>Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquรชte, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible media indicate that Zemmour will appear on the ballot of the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649541280.711411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649541280.711411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02599515550536638 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.899009035115515, 0.7525325687684755, 1.5396207564632554, 1.1337666856439383, 2.1003226597977993, 0.0, 0.08450481353103223, 0.016841314468324528, 0.0, 0.01858613705838052, 0.02962136754402973, 0.0, 0.008921031150165643, 0.8658159664749168, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036723684544262103, 0.0, 0.004943981799439977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027409221734258034, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023240901128781357, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.0033293200675777127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.083705563330886, "coverage": 0.9983622835672512, "baseline_score": 66.17839895040635, "spot_peer_score": -0.668209625032486, "peer_archived_score": 15.083705563330886, "baseline_archived_score": 66.17839895040635, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.668209625032486 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649541280.745325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649541280.745325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related question:\n- [รric Zemmour French president](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9791/%25C3%25A9ric-zemmour-french-president/)\n\n[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ric_Zemmour):\n\n>รric Justin Lรฉon Zemmour (French: [eสik zemuส]; born 31 August 1958) is a French far-right[a][b][c] politician, political journalist, essayist, writer and pundit. He was editor and panelist on Face ร l'Info, a daily show broadcast on CNews, from 2019 to 2021.[3] He is a candidate in the 2022 French presidential election.\n\n>Born in Montreuil, Zemmour studied at Sciences Po. He worked as a reporter for Le Quotidien de Paris from 1986 to 1996. He then joined Le Figaro, where he worked until 2021.[d] Zemmour appeared as a television personality on shows such as On n'est pas couchรฉ on France 2 (2006โ2011) and รa se dispute on I-Tรฉlรฉ (2003โ2014). He also appeared on Zemmour et Naulleau from 2011 to 2021, a weekly evening talk show on Paris Premiรจre, together with literary critic รric Naulleau.[8] Zemmour worked in parallel for RTL from 2010 until 2019, first hosting the daily radio show Z comme Zemmour, prior to joining Yves Calvi's morning news show as an analyst. His book The French Suicide (Le Suicide franรงais) sold more than 500,000 copies in 2014.[9][10]\n\n>Zemmour is well known for his controversial views regarding immigration and Islam in France. He has extensively supported the \"great replacement\", a conspiracy theory contending that France's native population will be replaced by non-European people.[11] Zemmour was fined for incitement to racial discrimination in 2011 and for incitement of hate against Muslims in 2018, although the latter conviction is pending review before the European Court of Human Rights. He was acquitted six times of similar charges, in 2008, 2014 (twice), 2016, 2017 and 2019. Convictions in 2015 and 2020 were overturned on appeal.\n\n>Zemmour announced his candidacy for the 2022 French presidential election on 30 November 2021.[12] On 5 December 2021, he launched Reconquรชte, a new political party.[13] In 2021, a New York Times article described Zemmour's views as \"hard-line... on immigration, Islam's place in France and national identity\",[11] while he self-identifies as Gaullist and Bonapartist.[14] He has advocated for vast changes to France's political system." }, { "id": 9783, "title": "Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Peter Daszak As President of EHA 2024", "url_title": "Peter Daszak As President of EHA 2024", "slug": "peter-daszak-as-president-of-eha-2024", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-09T00:45:00.889454Z", "published_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.895858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9783, "title": "Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2022-02-09T00:45:00.889454Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Daszak):\n\n> Peter Daszak is a British zoologist, consultant and public expert on disease ecology, in particular on zoonosis. He is the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit non-governmental organization that supports various programs on global health and pandemic prevention.\n\n> Prior to the pandemic, Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance were the only U.S.-based organization researching coronavirus evolution and transmission in China,[26] where they partnered with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, among others.\n\nDespite his relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virologyโwhich [some consider to consitute conflicting interests](https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-are-the-covid-investigators-11613401955)โhe co-authored [an open letter](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159294/) that stated: \"We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin...and overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife\", without mentioning any potential conflicts of interest (though [a statement](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01377-5/fulltext) regarding competing interests was later added). Similarly, despite his prior involvement with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, he was on a team sent to investigate the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the hypothesis that it emerged at the very institute he had been working with.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if EcoHealth Alliance is still operational and Peter Daszak is EcoHealth Alliance's president on January 1, 2024. This question will resolve as **No** if EcoHealth Alliance is disbanded, or if Peter Daszak is no longer its president.\n\nIn case Daszak is suspended or placed on leave, and therefore at the time not the acting president, this question wil resolve as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703992765.492882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703992765.492882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8141097727186835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38049495012234774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7666141920296701, 0.880434461643574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2433123925483502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0773851333383373 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.068010696734888, "coverage": 0.9989375399158948, "baseline_score": 31.790929416834874, "spot_peer_score": -8.181471189090095, "peer_archived_score": 3.068010696734888, "baseline_archived_score": 31.790929416834874, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.181471189090095 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703992765.526197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703992765.526197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.055408729919027566, 0.9445912700809724 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Daszak):\n\n> Peter Daszak is a British zoologist, consultant and public expert on disease ecology, in particular on zoonosis. He is the president of EcoHealth Alliance, a nonprofit non-governmental organization that supports various programs on global health and pandemic prevention.\n\n> Prior to the pandemic, Daszak and EcoHealth Alliance were the only U.S.-based organization researching coronavirus evolution and transmission in China,[26] where they partnered with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, among others.\n\nDespite his relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virologyโwhich [some consider to consitute conflicting interests](https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-are-the-covid-investigators-11613401955)โhe co-authored [an open letter](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159294/) that stated: \"We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin...and overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife\", without mentioning any potential conflicts of interest (though [a statement](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01377-5/fulltext) regarding competing interests was later added). Similarly, despite his prior involvement with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, he was on a team sent to investigate the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the hypothesis that it emerged at the very institute he had been working with." }, { "id": 9774, "title": "Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?", "short_title": "Wordle Paywalled in 2022", "url_title": "Wordle Paywalled in 2022", "slug": "wordle-paywalled-in-2022", "author_id": 119161, "author_username": "somebody_else", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-08T04:49:34.777160Z", "published_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.428767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 217, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9774, "title": "Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?", "created_at": "2022-02-08T04:49:34.777160Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-11T15:33:34.115299Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-11T15:33:34.115299Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wordle](https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/), Josh Wardle's daily word-guessing game which has recently seen a dramatic rise in popularity, was [bought by the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/business/media/new-york-times-wordle.html) for \"a price in the low seven figuresโ around January 31, 2022. The New York Times has a collection of games available on their website already: some free, some partially or completely behind the paywall of their [New York Times Games Subscription](https://help.nytimes.com/hc/en-us/articles/360052272251-New-York-Times-Games-Subscription). While [Wardle has stated](https://twitter.com/powerlanguish/status/1488263944309731329/photo/1) that \"when the game moves to the NYT site, it will be free to play for everyone\", at least some people are concerned that [Wordle will not remain free forever](https://twitter.com/jalefkowit/status/1488265999581609987). The NYT's statement only claims the game will be \"*initially* free\", making no statement about what Wordle's future holds.", "resolution_criteria": "If during 2022 The New York Times places Wordle itself or any currently free part of Wordle, including the ability to play an unlimited number of times across days, share results, see statistics, or enable \"Hard Mode\", behind a paywall such as their New York Times Games Subscription, this question will resolve positively. If 2022 ends without this happening, including if Wordle is never moved from its current web address at all, this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "Other events such as the New York Times adding new features to Wordle (e.g the ability to play more than once per day) whether or not they are paid, or the New York Times removing any features *without* providing them to paying players, will have no impact on the question resolution.", "post_id": 9774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672375695.870403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672375695.870403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021909490386390614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 22.936673034580558, 1.1200944633482233, 0.6968171510170315, 0.9922667240779222, 0.11450024100332591, 0.05773277245239233, 0.49282663499294443, 0.01818579347706102, 0.05929242600284339, 0.7654022655967938, 0.0657871643881714, 0.14281779844499448, 0.019331782555827622, 0.04290615391313893, 0.014820622889104962, 8.041299466423935e-06, 0.005564773449528577, 0.010026156156412853, 0.003530025564016967, 0.013764789381940952, 0.005563500132854939, 0.003289931080329779, 4.35977897442797e-05, 0.006850660245703605, 0.05312959764158883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06616230003740073, 0.0, 0.10001197391083883, 0.0, 0.0005809708506462421, 0.0650267867028881, 0.013115660443039894, 0.0, 0.0001363932953878635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003836240423579593, 0.027968040695879756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02195279116716239, 1.925121241822616e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004296439918153473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005595128939316139, 0.0, 0.000876987249646166, 0.0001251049946387909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010427081107581023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004390400747292567, 0.0009257066462255934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.637059505527744e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00650255470457845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047512303339232307 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.740797877626832, "coverage": 0.9999636681824177, "baseline_score": 67.77441100206647, "spot_peer_score": -23.773888950228095, "peer_archived_score": 19.740797877626832, "baseline_archived_score": 67.77441100206647, "spot_peer_archived_score": -23.773888950228095 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672386348.229068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672386348.229068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 217, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 535, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wordle](https://www.powerlanguage.co.uk/wordle/), Josh Wardle's daily word-guessing game which has recently seen a dramatic rise in popularity, was [bought by the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/business/media/new-york-times-wordle.html) for \"a price in the low seven figuresโ around January 31, 2022. The New York Times has a collection of games available on their website already: some free, some partially or completely behind the paywall of their [New York Times Games Subscription](https://help.nytimes.com/hc/en-us/articles/360052272251-New-York-Times-Games-Subscription). While [Wardle has stated](https://twitter.com/powerlanguish/status/1488263944309731329/photo/1) that \"when the game moves to the NYT site, it will be free to play for everyone\", at least some people are concerned that [Wordle will not remain free forever](https://twitter.com/jalefkowit/status/1488265999581609987). The NYT's statement only claims the game will be \"*initially* free\", making no statement about what Wordle's future holds." }, { "id": 9764, "title": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Banks Denied SWIFT System", "url_title": "Russian Banks Denied SWIFT System", "slug": "russian-banks-denied-swift-system", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-07T11:37:52.621086Z", "published_at": "2022-02-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.126070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-12T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-12T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 414, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9764, "title": "If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-07T11:37:52.621086Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-12T03:12:02.787127Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-12T03:12:02.787127Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-12T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-12T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-12T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Russia continues its military build up on the border of Ukraine, Western and American officials have been detailing the potential sanctions should Russia decide to attack Ukraine. One possible action would be cutting Russia off from the SWIFT payment system.\n\n[RadioFreeEurope:](https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-swift-nuclear-option/31601868.html)\n\n> โSome call it the \"nuclear option.\" It doesn't involve weapons though.\n\n> As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT.\n\n> It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies.\n\n> The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.โ\n\n[NYTimes:](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html)\n\n> The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility โ something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.โ \n\n[Related: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a) Russia invades Ukraine under the same [resolution criteria as this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/), except removing the clause excluding \"areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021\"; and b) the United States State Department or other governmental agency announces it has cut Russian banks out of the SWIFT system, regardless of whether they are later allowed back in. If Russia does not invade Ukraine, the question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646271700.546001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646271700.546001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9624543300607423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.6329802713366363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6525258457120706e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7628595323645635e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 5.227187551941152e-06, 4.963234258247564e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5864859267997278e-07, 0.0, 1.5634909099950162e-05, 0.0, 8.234451003284477e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1893468440736682e-05, 3.592219600238634e-06, 1.5520148827101234e-05, 9.46628529026595e-06, 9.505270174434808e-07, 1.430569555962323e-05, 3.827914129974019e-08, 0.0, 2.9020879253853248e-05, 0.0, 1.6426742567565487e-05, 0.0, 0.0008105145919191755, 1.727658520222392e-05, 2.568725279425235e-07, 3.407180509684228e-05, 2.6451486059949333e-06, 0.0, 1.1071290123961774e-06, 2.162155631475504e-07, 0.0004351593068478301, 0.0, 6.927643447817886e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 2.951823052042931e-05, 2.5038674201846525e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3588309116895705e-05, 9.634458043405997e-06, 0.0001249919103190227, 4.1701831306727414e-07, 1.0, 0.0002559644483113361, 1.4869452368593559e-06, 0.03927087917118527, 0.0, 0.0014740377474805996, 0.9762849063574192, 0.4840733110933922, 0.23524364970025124, 0.00011419965522514803, 5.593439845898261e-05, 0.00030516162791556186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003232412767461093, 0.00015674221746307448, 0.004166775945139603, 5.877348363340255e-07, 3.72410695955227e-05, 6.617653231567559e-05, 5.455901644257402e-05, 0.00115146519912902, 4.7504548008370526e-05, 6.932809413777677e-05, 0.0002915105578931634, 0.28888841083747624, 0.023756143460196, 0.03664490098830179, 0.07115195230660981, 0.35565929832575943, 0.5990511962763916, 2.5338884220096145, 0.5579845111399395, 0.46341007136516066, 1.4067511402612782, 30.110833404813132 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2926789326306523, "coverage": 0.09132444600853673, "baseline_score": -0.02216044795034966, "spot_peer_score": -40.3680597027179, "peer_archived_score": 1.2926789326306523, "baseline_archived_score": -0.02216044795034966, "spot_peer_archived_score": -40.3680597027179 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646271700.604931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646271700.604931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07727790905227605, 0.922722090947724 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As Russia continues its military build up on the border of Ukraine, Western and American officials have been detailing the potential sanctions should Russia decide to attack Ukraine. One possible action would be cutting Russia off from the SWIFT payment system.\n\n[RadioFreeEurope:](https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-swift-nuclear-option/31601868.html)\n\n> โSome call it the \"nuclear option.\" It doesn't involve weapons though.\n\n> As U.S. President Joe Biden's administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT.\n\n> It would be an unprecedented move against one of the world's major economies.\n\n> The White House has not confirmed it is threatening to disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.โ\n\n[NYTimes:](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/us/politics/us-sanctions-russia-ukraine.html)\n\n> The officials declined to say whether the United States was prepared to cut Russia off from the SWIFT system, which executes global financial transactions between more than 1,100 banks in 200 countries. But European officials say they have discussed that possibility โ something most major European powers had declined to consider until recently, for fear that Russia might retaliate by attempting to cut off gas and oil flows in the winter, even briefly.โ \n\n[Related: Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)" }, { "id": 9752, "title": "Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?", "short_title": "Protection for the gene-edited/screened?", "url_title": "Protection for the gene-edited/screened?", "slug": "protection-for-the-gene-editedscreened", "author_id": 118777, "author_username": "H559", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T20:53:03.694162Z", "published_at": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T00:11:50.046886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9752, "title": "Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T20:53:03.694162Z", "open_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Federal employees of the United States are protected from discriminative hiring practices by a host of difference acts and laws. Some of these, as detailed by the [Federal Trade Commission](https://www.ftc.gov/site-information/no-fear-act/protections-against-discrimination) (FTC) and enforced by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), include\n\n- [Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/title-vii-civil-rights-act-1964)\n- [Equal Pay Act of 1963](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/equal-pay-act-1963)\n- [Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/age-discrimination-employment-act-1967)\n- [Rehabilitation Act of 1973](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/rehabilitation-act-1973)\n- [The Civil Rights Act of 1991](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/civil-rights-act-1991)\n\nFrom the FTC\n\n > The laws enforced by EEOC makes it unlawful for Federal agencies to discriminate against employees and job applicants on the bases of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or age. A person who files a complaint or participates in an investigation of an EEO complaint, or who opposes an employment practice made illegal under any of the laws that EEOC enforces is protected from retaliation.\n\nOther protections exist as well, such as the [Pregnancy Discrimination Act](https://www.eeoc.gov/pregnancy-discrimination) and [Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/genetic-information-nondiscrimination-act-2008).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Congress, the EEOC or another federal U.S. agency creates act(s), law(s) or regulation making it unlawful to disciminate against employees based on whether they have been screen or edited as embryos by 2100. Terms such as or similar to \"gene-edited\", \"polygenically screened\", \"embryo selected\", or \"genetically modified\" will trigger a positive resolution. If no such act is instituted by 2100, this question resolves negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762647099.423607, "end_time": 1783277130.608255, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762647099.423607, "end_time": 1783277130.608255, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.5428409856103851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.40698478172960956, 1.4207406022877747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4640481250059182, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3793882388111064 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287929.408481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287929.408481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6089670388752522, 0.3910329611247478 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Federal employees of the United States are protected from discriminative hiring practices by a host of difference acts and laws. Some of these, as detailed by the [Federal Trade Commission](https://www.ftc.gov/site-information/no-fear-act/protections-against-discrimination) (FTC) and enforced by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), include\n\n- [Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/title-vii-civil-rights-act-1964)\n- [Equal Pay Act of 1963](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/equal-pay-act-1963)\n- [Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/age-discrimination-employment-act-1967)\n- [Rehabilitation Act of 1973](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/rehabilitation-act-1973)\n- [The Civil Rights Act of 1991](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/civil-rights-act-1991)\n\nFrom the FTC\n\n > The laws enforced by EEOC makes it unlawful for Federal agencies to discriminate against employees and job applicants on the bases of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or age. A person who files a complaint or participates in an investigation of an EEO complaint, or who opposes an employment practice made illegal under any of the laws that EEOC enforces is protected from retaliation.\n\nOther protections exist as well, such as the [Pregnancy Discrimination Act](https://www.eeoc.gov/pregnancy-discrimination) and [Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/genetic-information-nondiscrimination-act-2008)." }, { "id": 9751, "title": "Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?", "short_title": "Futarchy adopted by 2070?", "url_title": "Futarchy adopted by 2070?", "slug": "futarchy-adopted-by-2070", "author_id": 118777, "author_username": "H559", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T20:04:22.397003Z", "published_at": "2022-02-10T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:33:06.404717Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-10T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-10T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9751, "title": "Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T20:04:22.397003Z", "open_time": "2022-02-10T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-12T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As discussed by the [Long Now Foundation](https://longnow.org/ideas/02007/11/22/futarchy/), [futarchy](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html) \n\n> is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In Hansonโs words, โwe would vote on values, but bet on beliefs.โ\n> \n> Futarchy is based on the assumption that poor nations are poor because their governments adopt flawed policies, despite expertise recommending otherwise. Although this assumption may be problematic, in that it boils economic stagnation down to sheer misjudgment, the question of how to render governments accountable to public opinion regarding the future is a valuable one. Futarchy intends to address this by having democratically-elected representatives formally define and manage after-the-fact measurements of national welfare, while allowing market speculators to determine which policies are expected to raise national welfare (Hanson). According to Hanson, โthe basic rule of government would be: when a betting market clearly estimates that a proposed policy would increase expected national welfare, that proposal becomes law.โ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 2070, any jurisdiction institutes laws consistent with the concept of _futarchy_. Such a jurisdiction need not refer to the term \"futarchy\" or reference Robin Hanson's name directly, but should govern at least 10,000 people. A positive resolution would also be triggered if a nation experiments with futarchy, similar to how nations have experimented with UBI; in this case, just as with the UBI experiments, real currency (not points or tokens) would have to be used. This question resolves negatively if no futarchy is implemented by the year 2070", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9751, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762578508.732978, "end_time": 1766456056.499989, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762578508.732978, "end_time": 1766456056.499989, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.16678187036031117 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290264.253195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290264.253195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9293704318270879, 0.07062956817291212 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As discussed by the [Long Now Foundation](https://longnow.org/ideas/02007/11/22/futarchy/), [futarchy](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html) \n\n> is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In Hansonโs words, โwe would vote on values, but bet on beliefs.โ\n> \n> Futarchy is based on the assumption that poor nations are poor because their governments adopt flawed policies, despite expertise recommending otherwise. Although this assumption may be problematic, in that it boils economic stagnation down to sheer misjudgment, the question of how to render governments accountable to public opinion regarding the future is a valuable one. Futarchy intends to address this by having democratically-elected representatives formally define and manage after-the-fact measurements of national welfare, while allowing market speculators to determine which policies are expected to raise national welfare (Hanson). According to Hanson, โthe basic rule of government would be: when a betting market clearly estimates that a proposed policy would increase expected national welfare, that proposal becomes law.โ" } ] }
