Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4380
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4360", "results": [ { "id": 9749, "title": "Will BB(5) be known by 2040?", "short_title": "Proof of the 5th Busy Beaver number", "url_title": "Proof of the 5th Busy Beaver number", "slug": "proof-of-the-5th-busy-beaver-number", "author_id": 112479, "author_username": "evanbd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T17:54:49.260501Z", "published_at": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.671111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-03T02:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-03T02:55:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9749, "title": "Will BB(5) be known by 2040?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T17:54:49.260501Z", "open_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-03T02:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-03T02:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-03T02:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Busy Beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are Turing machines that run for the maximum amount of time before halting, given their size. For this question, the function BB(n) will be taken as the maximum shifts function (often denoted S(n)) for a two-symbol, n-state Turing machine. The first few values are BB(1) = 1, BB(2) = 6, BB(3) = 21, BB(4) = 107.\n\nFor larger values of n, BB(n) is not decidable with [Peano Arithmetic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9429/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-pa/) or [ZFC](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9431/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-zfc/). However, BB(n) remains unknown even for relatively small values of n.\n\nThe current record holder Turing Machine for BB(5) halts after 47176870 steps. However, it is possible that some other machine runs for longer while still halting. While most 5-state machines have been proven to halt sooner or never halt, the halting status of a few remain unknown.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the value of the 5th Busy Beaver number is conclusively decided by 2040-01-01.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution could come with a proof that the current record holder is the value, or with proof of a different (higher) value.\n\nThe definition of BB(n) and sources of resolution information used in this question are intended to match the definitions used in [these](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9429/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-pa/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9429/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-pa/).", "post_id": 9749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723953531.520811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723953531.520811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9515811219732637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.19376657685266277, 0.11412615151819067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06529683843934958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2104153100555749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 8.516707977398998 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1797392272007932, "coverage": 0.18575832867174616, "baseline_score": 7.900684156684398, "spot_peer_score": 7.438118377140322, "peer_archived_score": 1.1797392272007932, "baseline_archived_score": 7.900684156684398, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.438118377140322 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719129107.122183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719129107.122183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09167698847803141, 0.9083230115219686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Busy Beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are Turing machines that run for the maximum amount of time before halting, given their size. For this question, the function BB(n) will be taken as the maximum shifts function (often denoted S(n)) for a two-symbol, n-state Turing machine. The first few values are BB(1) = 1, BB(2) = 6, BB(3) = 21, BB(4) = 107.\n\nFor larger values of n, BB(n) is not decidable with [Peano Arithmetic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9429/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-pa/) or [ZFC](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9431/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-zfc/). However, BB(n) remains unknown even for relatively small values of n.\n\nThe current record holder Turing Machine for BB(5) halts after 47176870 steps. However, it is possible that some other machine runs for longer while still halting. While most 5-state machines have been proven to halt sooner or never halt, the halting status of a few remain unknown." }, { "id": 9747, "title": "[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "short_title": "Norway Wins Most Golds in 2022 Olympics", "url_title": "Norway Wins Most Golds in 2022 Olympics", "slug": "norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T15:58:04.545193Z", "published_at": "2022-02-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.237704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-06T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-14T15:58:04.545000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-14T15:58:04.545000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T16:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T16:49:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9747, "title": "[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T15:58:04.545193Z", "open_time": "2022-02-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-06T20:49:22.457219Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-06T20:49:22.457219Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T16:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T16:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-20T16:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-14T15:58:04.545000Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-14T15:58:04.545000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8984/norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics/) [closed]\n\n----\n\nThe [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\n\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\n\n| Year | Gold Ranking | Silver Ranking | Bronze Ranking | Total Medal Ranking |\n| -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | \n| 2018 | 1 (tied) | 1 | 1 | 1 | \n| 2014 | 1 (tied) | 8 | 1 (tied) | 3 | \n| 2010 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | \n| 2006 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6 | \n| 2002 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | \n\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics).", "fine_print": "In the event that 2 or more countries are tied for the most Gold medals, the tie will be broken by whoever wins the most Silver medals. If those are also tied, the tie will be broken by Bronze medals. If they remain tied, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the case that the Winter Olympics are cancelled or postponed, the \"2022 Winter Olympics\" will be considered to be the major winter sporting event recognized by the [International Olympic Comittee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee) held during the years 2022 to 2025, inclusive.", "post_id": 9747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1644853890.151805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1644853890.151805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6295718058785359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0009709321843095519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02647304183264402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2707577072836913, 0.04476720365716675, 0.1115637277723037, 0.19809072046800685, 0.8925102070118432, 0.8543329221157342, 1.8174391791136186, 0.1855729245638558, 0.0, 0.8786862496753849, 1.2617303259059243, 0.0, 0.8258953232607744, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 1.6316232208381802, 1.208841778651568, 0.6788062773671363, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.5183295490595771, 0.0, 0.4088775124274377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23304744144606535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27144266175998527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07791871383103789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13249979905882817, 0.09352845379090119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938933945991016 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.951761198740808, "coverage": 0.9995032523076626, "baseline_score": 13.009568333521813, "spot_peer_score": 56.52345298266503, "peer_archived_score": 14.951761198740808, "baseline_archived_score": 13.009568333521813, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.52345298266503 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1644853890.193225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1644853890.193225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30802170392671924, 0.6919782960732808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8984/norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics/) [closed]\n\n----\n\nThe [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\n\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\n\n| Year | Gold Ranking | Silver Ranking | Bronze Ranking | Total Medal Ranking |\n| -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | \n| 2018 | 1 (tied) | 1 | 1 | 1 | \n| 2014 | 1 (tied) | 8 | 1 (tied) | 3 | \n| 2010 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | \n| 2006 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6 | \n| 2002 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | \n\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines." }, { "id": 9746, "title": "Will Ukraine fulfill its Minsk-II obligations in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine's Minsk II Obligations Met in 2022", "url_title": "Ukraine's Minsk II Obligations Met in 2022", "slug": "ukraines-minsk-ii-obligations-met-in-2022", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T14:45:52.341189Z", "published_at": "2022-02-10T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.180057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-10T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-10T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, 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"forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9746, "title": "Will Ukraine fulfill its Minsk-II obligations in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T14:45:52.341189Z", "open_time": "2022-02-10T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-12T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-12T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Volodymyr Zelensky remain President of Ukraine by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9743/zelensky-stays-in-power/)\n\n----\n\nIn the early stages of the recent troop build up on the border of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin informed US President Joe Biden that Ukraine [failed in complying with the Minsk agreements](https://www.wionews.com/world/ukraine-failed-to-comply-with-the-minsk-agreements-putin-informs-biden-434964)--in particular with respect to semi-political autonomy in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast (Articles 4, 11, and 12). [Some analysts have said](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/24/autonomy-eastern-ukraine-crisis-nato-russia-minsk) Ukrainian compliance with Minsk II could satisfy Russia and prevent an invasion.\n\n***Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations from the Minsk II agreement with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if there is confirmation from both the Russian and Ukrainian foreign offices or at least two independent, credible media reports stating Ukraine fulfilled its obligations relating to elections and constitutional reform regarding Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in Articles 4, 11, and 12 of the Minsk II Agreement. This question will also resolve positively if Ukraine fulfills obligations in a new agreement that exceed the ones detailed by Minsk II with respect to granting political autonomy in the Donbas. This question will resolve ambiguously if Russia annexes the relevant districts in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast.\n\n[fine-print]\n[The relevant Minsk II articles are as follows:](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement)\n\n> Four other sections address political matters:\n\n> Article 4: elections in Donbas. The day after the pullback of heavy weaponry from the contact line, a dialogue on local elections will start in accordance with Ukrainian law and the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014. No later than 30 days after the signing of the Minsk-2 agreement (i.e. by 14 March), Ukraine’s parliament will adopt a resolution defining the area in which the temporary law on special status will apply (to be based on the delineation line in the memorandum of 19 September 2014).\n\n> Article 11: constitutional reform. A new Ukrainian constitution will enter into force by the end of 2015. Its ‘key element’ will be ‘decentralization’, which will take account of the ‘peculiarities’ of occupied Donbas, as agreed with the DNR/LNR representatives. Ukraine will also adopt ‘permanent legislation’ on special status before the end of 2015. This law will include: an amnesty; ‘the right of linguistic self-determination’; the involvement of the local authorities in the appointment of prosecutors and courts; agreements between Ukraine’s central authorities and the local authorities covering ‘economic, social and cultural development’; state support for the socio-economic development of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; assistance from the central authorities to support ‘transnational cooperation’ between the occupied regions and regions of the Russian Federation; rights for local parliaments to create ‘people’s militia units’; and no early termination of the powers of local parliaments and elected officials.\n\n> Article 12: elections in Donbas. Election-related questions will be dealt with on the basis of the temporary law on special status adopted in September 2014 and agreed with the DNR/LNR. 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"2022-04-08T15:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-08T15:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-08T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-17T09:07:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-17T09:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n----\n\nTo date ~14,000 people have been killed in the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nThere is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342). Will this year be the deadliest yet?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if two credible governmental or intergovernmental reports report more than 10,000 deaths in the Russo-Ukrainian War for the year 2022, or there are at least two credible, independent mainstream media reports indicating a death toll above 10,000. 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The first year of the war was the deadliest, with [just over 5,000 people dying](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).\n\nThere is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. General Mark Miley, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that a full-scale invasion could result in [15,000 Ukrainian and 4,000 Russian troop deaths](https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources). According to the BBC, two unnamed American officials predicted a Russian invasion could cause up to [50,000 civilian deaths](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342). Will this year be the deadliest yet?" }, { "id": 9743, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?", "short_title": "Zelenskyy Remains President of UA by 2023", "url_title": "Zelenskyy Remains President of UA by 2023", "slug": "zelenskyy-remains-president-of-ua-by-2023", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-06T14:13:42.385203Z", "published_at": "2022-02-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.132893Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:23:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 509, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9743, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-06T14:13:42.385203Z", "open_time": "2022-02-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-10T14:45:10.904618Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-10T14:45:10.904618Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T20:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations from the Minsk-II agreement with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9746/minsk-ii-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nVolodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in 2019 and his current term lasts until 2024. However, Ukraine is currently under the threat of Russian invasion and leaked information from [UK](https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-hatching-plot-to-replace-ukraine-government-u-k-says-11642890601) and [US](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kiev-puppet-is-a-part-of-putins-toolkit-in-ukraine-warns-us-b5fnhrssk) intelligence agencies warn about the possibility of a Zelensky ousting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **No** if there is an announcement by the US-recognized government of Ukraine stating that Zelensky is no longer the president or that he is a president-in-exile, or at least three [permanent members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) state that there is another de-facto President of Ukraine", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529717.99914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529717.99914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.986857442455347 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.000241993584963656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.495915486266757e-07, 3.680446211724229e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.245158790295391e-07, 0.0, 6.478770070644988e-06, 0.0, 8.665872171604261e-07, 6.482877713097239e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.971386514375895e-06, 8.423277792391719e-06, 6.447491681093192e-07, 3.3653062214382483e-06, 1.0900712694664534e-06, 2.774572979622399e-06, 1.363244268800944e-06, 1.5109247883894685e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 3.275343507044779e-06, 1.55690376810837e-05, 7.28451710988709e-07, 1.4552269730533323e-06, 1.2442728986157183e-08, 0.00012862424741546407, 0.0, 0.0, 8.683892468091259e-07, 1.8741123190270525e-07, 4.307792983152684e-06, 8.308661347565643e-09, 6.12468800228272e-07, 0.0, 5.036582730353494e-06, 3.5060225300080042e-06, 3.9248062286073213e-07, 3.0231667423245952e-05, 2.455015251375926e-06, 0.0, 0.004856985982062674, 0.000543344270790535, 0.0, 6.272359269779831e-05, 0.0, 6.835388913660096e-06, 1.3753859207715625e-05, 3.988056583177076e-05, 0.0, 0.00020555825890463102, 0.007914418922431783, 2.721754087083925e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4879811404069301e-05, 2.7228014214794192e-05, 1.6246144658962108e-07, 9.361951010374864e-05, 3.01421675719001e-06, 0.0, 0.07084064638955968, 5.5621860035556275e-05, 0.014150854964301853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01064133573668728, 0.07534441440623418, 0.00011757606862938389, 0.0, 0.0031365763364878075, 0.001139826918397807, 1.3630349729833906e-05, 7.279438968520147e-08, 0.03155399193267562, 0.0007706742877232972, 0.019326309304434873, 0.020698908626901744, 0.0006247768866438819, 0.04545576465401232, 0.00018397227806696674, 0.015784941527772524, 0.00014243557446047312, 0.07563270987522196, 0.4003696757257592, 0.01283945524753882, 0.1698863396034255, 0.03571983563627523, 0.7008941144033083, 1.6806421595334036, 40.223669454152116 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 39.32106352822009, "coverage": 0.9999800507650386, "baseline_score": 71.66370308785122, "spot_peer_score": -28.81492489430348, "peer_archived_score": 39.32106352822009, "baseline_archived_score": 71.66370308785122, "spot_peer_archived_score": -28.81492489430348 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672529718.05334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672529718.05334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012725642116366065, 0.9872743578836339 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 44, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1653, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Ukraine fulfill its obligations from the Minsk-II agreement with respect to Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9746/minsk-ii-in-2022/)\n\n----\n\nVolodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in 2019 and his current term lasts until 2024. However, Ukraine is currently under the threat of Russian invasion and leaked information from [UK](https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-hatching-plot-to-replace-ukraine-government-u-k-says-11642890601) and [US](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kiev-puppet-is-a-part-of-putins-toolkit-in-ukraine-warns-us-b5fnhrssk) intelligence agencies warn about the possibility of a Zelensky ousting." }, { "id": 9740, "title": "Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?", "short_title": "Niger coup before 2023", "url_title": "Niger coup before 2023", "slug": "niger-coup-before-2023", "author_id": 120570, "author_username": "Ollie_Sayeed", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-05T16:12:48.369751Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.066973Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9740, "title": "Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-05T16:12:48.369751Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-28T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-28T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Niger is the [fastest growing](https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) country in Africa, with its capital Niamey [projected](http://media.wix.com/ugd/672989_62cfa13ec4ba47788f78ad660489a2fa.pdf) to be among the 10 most populous cities in the world by the end of the century. The country is one of the [poorest](https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2020.pdf) in the world, and GDP growth per capita is [slow](https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037712), but its political system is starting to democratize. In 2021, Mohamed Bazoum [won the presidency](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/23/ruling-partys-mohamed-bazoum-wins-niger-presidential-election) in Niger's first peaceful transfer of power since independence, for which his predecessor Mahamadou Issoufou [was awarded](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/23/ruling-partys-mohamed-bazoum-wins-niger-presidential-election) the Ibrahim Prize and declared a role model for African leaders.\n\n But Niger's neighbours in the Sahel have been less stable over the last few years, with [jihadist violence and ethnic clashes](https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch) destabilizing the region's transition to democracy. Since 2020, the western Sahel has seen military coups in [Mali](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/24/mali-president-prime-minister-and-defence-minister-arrested-sources-say), [Guinea](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/heavy-gunfire-heard-guinea-capital-conakry-reuters-witness-2021-09-05/) and [Burkina Faso](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220125-burkina-faso-s-writer-colonel-coup-leader-starts-a-new-chapter-in-country-s-history), while the east has seen the death of a president and a military takeover in [Chad](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rebels-threaten-march-capital-chad-reels-presidents-battlefield-death-2021-04-21/) and the military hijacking of a democratic transition in [Sudan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/25/sudan-coup-fears-amid-claims-military-have-arrested-senior-government-officials). Niger faces similar pressures to its neighbours, as well as a recent [corruption scandal](https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch) against President Bazoum.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if, before January 1st, 2023, any one of the UN, ECOWAS, the US or France recognizes a coup, defined as an unconstitutional seizure of power, against the incumbent Nigerien government. The resignation of President Bazoum or his successor won't be counted unless explicitly acknowledged as a coup by one of the sources above", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9740, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520651.785093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520651.785093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.030018896727247654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.403701875587036, 0.4789409092720612, 0.7280171328901358, 0.2511459123085843, 0.5414042160578514, 0.10990808090090429, 0.0, 0.19880531864869982, 0.2767645108512169, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0780070217236044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.03209253519002453, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.477755426928905, "coverage": 0.999171066276702, "baseline_score": 72.18819315984952, "spot_peer_score": 88.506016524697, "peer_archived_score": 26.477755426928905, "baseline_archived_score": 72.18819315984952, "spot_peer_archived_score": 88.506016524697 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520651.801177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520651.801177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Niger is the [fastest growing](https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) country in Africa, with its capital Niamey [projected](http://media.wix.com/ugd/672989_62cfa13ec4ba47788f78ad660489a2fa.pdf) to be among the 10 most populous cities in the world by the end of the century. The country is one of the [poorest](https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2020.pdf) in the world, and GDP growth per capita is [slow](https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0037712), but its political system is starting to democratize. In 2021, Mohamed Bazoum [won the presidency](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/23/ruling-partys-mohamed-bazoum-wins-niger-presidential-election) in Niger's first peaceful transfer of power since independence, for which his predecessor Mahamadou Issoufou [was awarded](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/23/ruling-partys-mohamed-bazoum-wins-niger-presidential-election) the Ibrahim Prize and declared a role model for African leaders.\n\n But Niger's neighbours in the Sahel have been less stable over the last few years, with [jihadist violence and ethnic clashes](https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch) destabilizing the region's transition to democracy. Since 2020, the western Sahel has seen military coups in [Mali](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/24/mali-president-prime-minister-and-defence-minister-arrested-sources-say), [Guinea](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/heavy-gunfire-heard-guinea-capital-conakry-reuters-witness-2021-09-05/) and [Burkina Faso](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220125-burkina-faso-s-writer-colonel-coup-leader-starts-a-new-chapter-in-country-s-history), while the east has seen the death of a president and a military takeover in [Chad](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rebels-threaten-march-capital-chad-reels-presidents-battlefield-death-2021-04-21/) and the military hijacking of a democratic transition in [Sudan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/25/sudan-coup-fears-amid-claims-military-have-arrested-senior-government-officials). Niger faces similar pressures to its neighbours, as well as a recent [corruption scandal](https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch) against President Bazoum." }, { "id": 9734, "title": "Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese GDP Overtakes US Before 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese GDP Overtakes US Before 2030?", "slug": "chinese-gdp-overtakes-us-before-2030", "author_id": 122087, "author_username": "notfadeaway", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-05T11:29:29.142383Z", "published_at": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T00:14:33.521127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T10:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9734, "title": "Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-02-05T11:29:29.142383Z", "open_time": "2022-02-26T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-28T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-28T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T10:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T10:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In 2020 China's GDP increased by 2.3% while the US' decreased by 2.3%](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html). Furthermore in 2021 [China's GDP grew 8.1% to 114.367 trillion yuan](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-17/China-s-GDP-tops-114-36-trillion-yuan-in-2021-16T64Jt0na8/index.html), while the [US' grew 5.7% to $22.99 trillion](https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/usa). China's faster economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic has [led some analysts to conclude](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html) that China may overtake the US as early as 2028. [With others believing](https://www.newsweek.com/china-u-s-economy-gdp-capital-economics-1570558) that China may never overtake the US due to a declining workforce and strict controls on the economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves affirmatively if the GDP of the People's Republic of China, as published by [World Bank Open Data](https://data.worldbank.org/), in any of the years from 2022-2029 is higher than the GDP of the United States in that same year", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762323460.909542, "end_time": 1764132491.578245, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762323460.909542, "end_time": 1764132491.578245, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.13680334059241278 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287204.792854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287204.792854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9845489696924925, 0.015451030307507474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 376, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In 2020 China's GDP increased by 2.3% while the US' decreased by 2.3%](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html). Furthermore in 2021 [China's GDP grew 8.1% to 114.367 trillion yuan](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-17/China-s-GDP-tops-114-36-trillion-yuan-in-2021-16T64Jt0na8/index.html), while the [US' grew 5.7% to $22.99 trillion](https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/usa). China's faster economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic has [led some analysts to conclude](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html) that China may overtake the US as early as 2028. [With others believing](https://www.newsweek.com/china-u-s-economy-gdp-capital-economics-1570558) that China may never overtake the US due to a declining workforce and strict controls on the economy." }, { "id": 9713, "title": "Will Russia recognize a breakaway state of any territories claimed by Ukraine by 2023?", "short_title": "Russia recognizing Ukrainian breakaway states", "url_title": "Russia recognizing Ukrainian breakaway states", "slug": "russia-recognizing-ukrainian-breakaway-states", "author_id": 106828, "author_username": "nostradamnedus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-04T03:18:44.059118Z", "published_at": "2022-02-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.896656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-21T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-21T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-21T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-21T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9713, "title": "Will Russia recognize a breakaway state of any territories claimed by Ukraine by 2023?", "created_at": "2022-02-04T03:18:44.059118Z", "open_time": "2022-02-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-20T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-21T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-21T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-21T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-21T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "There currently exist two self-declared breakaway states on de jure Ukrainian territory: [Luhansk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People%27s_Republic) and [Donetsk People's Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic). Neither is currently recognised by Russia, though it has [supported both](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) in their conflict with the Ukrainians. A [draft law](https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-russia-recognize-self-declared-separatist-republics-eastern-ukraine) was registered on 19 January 2022 by 11 members of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) to recognise the two breakaway states, which will next head to review in February. Russia previously [recognised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Abkhazia_and_South_Ossetia) the similar breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on territory claimed by Georgia following its [war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War) with that country in 2008.\n\n***Will Russia recognise a breakaway state on any territories claimed by Ukraine by 2023?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if Russia recognizes any existing or new self-declared states on territory claimed by Ukraine. At least 50% of the territory of the breakaway state needs to be within the current US-recognized borders of Ukraine to count toward a positive resolution. Otherwise the question will resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 9701, "title": "Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "short_title": "Carrick Flynn Wins OR-6 General Election", "url_title": "Carrick Flynn Wins OR-6 General Election", "slug": "carrick-flynn-wins-or-6-general-election", "author_id": 109983, "author_username": "CullenOKeefe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-03T03:55:36.811707Z", "published_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.001156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T03:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T03:35:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9701, "title": "Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "created_at": "2022-02-03T03:55:36.811707Z", "open_time": "2022-02-11T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-13T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T03:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-11-10T03:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-11-10T03:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-07T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-07T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carrick Flynn](https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/) just [announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPMJ6b-xhtk&feature=youtu.be) his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created [6th congressional district](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022). \n\nCarrick is running as a Democrat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Carrick Flynn is certified as the winner of the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district. Projection that Carrick has won that race according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667778098.10185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667778098.10185, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027480125846360115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 19.408182384231356, 0.05233049738909348, 0.0038190088139136353, 0.0034884312213303956, 0.03524892068071617, 0.17295960549219036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010546239813941387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017648365442997007, 0.0, 0.00040206212748460714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"title": "Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "short_title": "Carrick Flynn Wins OR-6 Democratic Primary", "url_title": "Carrick Flynn Wins OR-6 Democratic Primary", "slug": "carrick-flynn-wins-or-6-democratic-primary", "author_id": 109983, "author_username": "CullenOKeefe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-03T03:49:54.660739Z", "published_at": "2022-02-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.032555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-16T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-16T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-19T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-19T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carrick Flynn](https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/) just [announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPMJ6b-xhtk&feature=youtu.be) his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created [6th congressional district](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022). \n\nCarrick is running as a Democrat. The primary will take place on [17 May 2022](https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/current-election.aspx).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Carrick Flynn is the projected winner of the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district according to at least two of the following networks that make race calls: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, Decision Desk HQ, Associated Press, Reuters, NY Times.", "fine_print": "If there are conflicting race calls, we will wait for [certification](https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/current-election.aspx) by the Oregon Secretary of State to resolve this question.", "post_id": 9700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652733617.125486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652733617.125486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4623845402274985 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011898388370891663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0040557353356983905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010266910336926773, 0.0, 0.15085816861433865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013916805215543476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42179186241664124, 1.8203378370360905, 0.001370625941716385, 0.08611494246862797, 0.0, 0.0521280752886882, 0.17369313283766458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6249674513259587, 0.0008798480225827365, 0.7959483534831271, 0.0, 0.7714199249594182, 0.26248113349913677, 1.247533140750369, 0.5654742524720735, 1.0087584729558563, 1.1484820968032001, 1.1370074339036473, 1.5967348508292862, 0.040194835892942454, 0.5853056235746743, 0.37164420923784414, 0.9231197697871245, 0.02623658408983517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5478296666848268, 0.0, 0.0075608070664485725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29718766786713746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011638038313524245, 0.0004313678789822718, 0.0006301126768428149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04207780869034787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16018293680577148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.369127863469589, "coverage": 0.9989004697461649, "baseline_score": 26.402690941608746, "spot_peer_score": 20.72521333054833, "peer_archived_score": 4.369127863469589, "baseline_archived_score": 26.402690941608746, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.72521333054833 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652733617.147726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652733617.147726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7029209672861132, 0.29707903271388686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 382, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carrick Flynn](https://www.carrickflynnfororegon.com/) just [announced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPMJ6b-xhtk&feature=youtu.be) his candidacy for the US House of Representatives in Oregon's newly-created [6th congressional district](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022). \n\nCarrick is running as a Democrat. The primary will take place on [17 May 2022](https://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Pages/current-election.aspx)." }, { "id": 9693, "title": "Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?", "short_title": "Gray Wolf Endangered in US by 2030", "url_title": "Gray Wolf Endangered in US by 2030", "slug": "gray-wolf-endangered-in-us-by-2030", "author_id": 118616, "author_username": "samuelraasch", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-02-02T18:12:02.637894Z", "published_at": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.044767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-17T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-17T18:25:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9693, "title": "Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-02-02T18:12:02.637894Z", "open_time": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-17T18:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-17T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-17T18:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [gray wolf](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_wolf) (canis lupus) is a species of canine and apex predator that is native to Eurasia and North America. Prior to the 20th century, the wolf could be found across [most of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_distribution#/media/File:North_American_gray_wolf_subspecies_distribution_according_to_Goldman_(1944)_&_MSW3_(2005).png). Over the past century, wolf populations drastically declined in the contiguous United States due to extermination campaigns and big prey reduction. However, a large population of wolves remained in Canada. \n\nIn 1973, the gray wolf was [added to the list](https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/4488#status) of species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA). This protection rendered wolf hunting illegal and mandated that recovery plans be made for the species. Over the next half century, wolf populations in the contiguous United States recovered thanks to natural migration and intentional reintroductions by wildlife agencies. The [International Union for Conservation of Nature](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/3746/163508960#assessment-information) reclassified the gray wolf from being \"Vulnerable\" in 1994 to \"Least Concern\" in 2004, and in 2020 the gray wolf was [delisted from the ESA](https://www.fws.gov/news/ShowNews.cfm?ref=trump-administration-returns-management-and-protection-of-gray-wolves-to-&_ID=36801) (the Mexican wolf remains listed). Management of wolf populations was returned to the state agencies, and some states swiftly reestablished hunting programs, which have resulted in the [reduction of local wolf populations](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wolf-populations-drop-as-more-states-allow-hunting/). Petitions to relist the wolf as threatened or endangered under the ESA recently triggered the USFWS to conduct a [year-long status review](https://www.fws.gov/news/ShowNews.cfm?ref=service-to-initiate-status-review-of-gray-wolf-in-the-western-us&_ID=36997), which will determine if the species once again requires federal protection.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the wolf is [relisted in the Endangered Species Act](https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/4488) as \"Threatened\" or \"Endangered\" in any region of the US, for any length of time between January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2029. The final rule must be officially published to the list in the Federal Register. This question will resolve negatively if the gray wolf remains delisted (with the exception of the Mexican wolf).", "fine_print": "If the gray wolf is declared extinct or no longer present in the wild in the US before it is found to be threatened or endangered, this question will resolve positively.", "post_id": 9693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1645121798.630029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1645121798.630029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6782647529073477 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0644634174904052, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0946364922645004, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 1.4113817838990028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.02887609485518072, "coverage": 0.007343013948283262, "baseline_score": 0.05562228143006672, "spot_peer_score": -26.52384134585429, "peer_archived_score": -0.02887609485518072, "baseline_archived_score": 0.05562228143006672, "spot_peer_archived_score": -26.52384134585429 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1645121798.675598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1645121798.675598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34930446353557876, 0.6506955364644212 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [gray wolf](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_wolf) (canis lupus) is a species of canine and apex predator that is native to Eurasia and North America. Prior to the 20th century, the wolf could be found across [most of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_distribution#/media/File:North_American_gray_wolf_subspecies_distribution_according_to_Goldman_(1944)_&_MSW3_(2005).png). Over the past century, wolf populations drastically declined in the contiguous United States due to extermination campaigns and big prey reduction. However, a large population of wolves remained in Canada. \n\nIn 1973, the gray wolf was [added to the list](https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/4488#status) of species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA). This protection rendered wolf hunting illegal and mandated that recovery plans be made for the species. Over the next half century, wolf populations in the contiguous United States recovered thanks to natural migration and intentional reintroductions by wildlife agencies. The [International Union for Conservation of Nature](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/3746/163508960#assessment-information) reclassified the gray wolf from being \"Vulnerable\" in 1994 to \"Least Concern\" in 2004, and in 2020 the gray wolf was [delisted from the ESA](https://www.fws.gov/news/ShowNews.cfm?ref=trump-administration-returns-management-and-protection-of-gray-wolves-to-&_ID=36801) (the Mexican wolf remains listed). Management of wolf populations was returned to the state agencies, and some states swiftly reestablished hunting programs, which have resulted in the [reduction of local wolf populations](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wolf-populations-drop-as-more-states-allow-hunting/). Petitions to relist the wolf as threatened or endangered under the ESA recently triggered the USFWS to conduct a [year-long status review](https://www.fws.gov/news/ShowNews.cfm?ref=service-to-initiate-status-review-of-gray-wolf-in-the-western-us&_ID=36997), which will determine if the species once again requires federal protection." }, { "id": 9632, "title": "Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?", "short_title": "Billion Oysters in NYC Harbor by 2035", "url_title": "Billion Oysters in NYC Harbor by 2035", "slug": "billion-oysters-in-nyc-harbor-by-2035", "author_id": 118777, "author_username": "H559", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-02-01T01:02:19.209083Z", "published_at": "2022-02-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T01:29:10.948008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9632, "title": "Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?", "created_at": "2022-02-01T01:02:19.209083Z", "open_time": "2022-02-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-25T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-25T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Murray Fisher](https://www.linkedin.com/in/murray-fisher-a120806/) and [Pete Malinowski](https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-malinowski-148101b/) created the [Billion Oyster Project](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) in 2014 to restore oysters to New York Harbor. These oysters offer many ecosystem services; they can help decontaminate waters of certain pollutants, act as storm-surge barriers, and contribute to biodiversity as a keystone species. To date (*), the Billion Oyster Project claims to have restored ~75 million live oysters.\n\n(*) [website](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) last accessed 31 January 2022, 7:45pm EST\n\nOn their website, they write:\n\n> Did you know that New York Harbor was once home to 220,000 acres of oyster reefs? Or, that an adult oyster can filter up to 50 gallons of water a day? The historic evidence of oysters in New York Harbor, combined with the oyster’s reputation as an “ecosystem engineer”, drives us to return New York Harbor to its rightful place as an ecological treasure. Here’s why we need them:\n> \n> Like coral reefs, oyster reefs provide 3D habitat for hundreds of species. Oysters grow off of one another — creating a hardy infrastructure for a lively underwater city of marine wildlife. Reefs are to the ocean what trees are to the forest.\n> \n> Oysters filter water as they eat, which helps clarify the water and remove certain pollutants, including nitrogen. This is very important to a marine ecosystem, because excessive nitrogen triggers algal blooms that deplete the water of oxygen and create “dead zones.”\n> \n> Massive oyster reef systems in New York Harbor were once a natural defense against storm damage—softening the blow of large waves, reducing flooding, and preventing erosion.\n> \n> Today, the Governor's Office of Storm Recovery (GOSR) is implementing coastal green infrastructure through the Living Breakwaters Project to mimic the reef systems that once existed off of southern Staten Island. Billion Oyster Project will install oysters on and around the infrastructure designed by SCAPE Landscape Architecture.\n\nThe Billion Oyster Project aims to meet its goal of 1 billion oysters in the harbor by 2035. In the coming years, they expect an increase in their oyster restoration capabilities.\n\n> We are currently piloting oyster setting processes that will allow us to scale to 25 million oysters per field season by 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the (Billion Oyster Project AND Pace University) OR (any National Science Foundation grant report) claims that the Billion Oyster Project has restored 1 billion live oysters in New York Harbor.", "fine_print": "Should the Billion Oyster Project be renamed, the newly-named project will be monitored as if it were still the Billion Oyster Project. Should the Billion Oyster Project cease to exist in any other way, this question resolves ambiguously, not negatively. \n\nAny other issues or ambiguities with the resolution criteria will be addressed by Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 9632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762774617.986174, "end_time": 1767166795.381436, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762774617.986174, "end_time": 1767166795.381436, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.43459056289821746 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289080.420172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289080.420172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6934472349716407, 0.30655276502835926 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Murray Fisher](https://www.linkedin.com/in/murray-fisher-a120806/) and [Pete Malinowski](https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-malinowski-148101b/) created the [Billion Oyster Project](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) in 2014 to restore oysters to New York Harbor. These oysters offer many ecosystem services; they can help decontaminate waters of certain pollutants, act as storm-surge barriers, and contribute to biodiversity as a keystone species. To date (*), the Billion Oyster Project claims to have restored ~75 million live oysters.\n\n(*) [website](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) last accessed 31 January 2022, 7:45pm EST\n\nOn their website, they write:\n\n> Did you know that New York Harbor was once home to 220,000 acres of oyster reefs? Or, that an adult oyster can filter up to 50 gallons of water a day? The historic evidence of oysters in New York Harbor, combined with the oyster’s reputation as an “ecosystem engineer”, drives us to return New York Harbor to its rightful place as an ecological treasure. Here’s why we need them:\n> \n> Like coral reefs, oyster reefs provide 3D habitat for hundreds of species. Oysters grow off of one another — creating a hardy infrastructure for a lively underwater city of marine wildlife. Reefs are to the ocean what trees are to the forest.\n> \n> Oysters filter water as they eat, which helps clarify the water and remove certain pollutants, including nitrogen. This is very important to a marine ecosystem, because excessive nitrogen triggers algal blooms that deplete the water of oxygen and create “dead zones.”\n> \n> Massive oyster reef systems in New York Harbor were once a natural defense against storm damage—softening the blow of large waves, reducing flooding, and preventing erosion.\n> \n> Today, the Governor's Office of Storm Recovery (GOSR) is implementing coastal green infrastructure through the Living Breakwaters Project to mimic the reef systems that once existed off of southern Staten Island. Billion Oyster Project will install oysters on and around the infrastructure designed by SCAPE Landscape Architecture.\n\nThe Billion Oyster Project aims to meet its goal of 1 billion oysters in the harbor by 2035. In the coming years, they expect an increase in their oyster restoration capabilities.\n\n> We are currently piloting oyster setting processes that will allow us to scale to 25 million oysters per field season by 2024." }, { "id": 9627, "title": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?", "short_title": "US Exit From Paris Agreement If GOP Win 2024", "url_title": "US Exit From Paris Agreement If GOP Win 2024", "slug": "us-exit-from-paris-agreement-if-gop-win-2024", "author_id": 122359, "author_username": "samglover97", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-31T19:15:22.043808Z", "published_at": "2022-02-03T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.802721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-03T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T10:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-03T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9627, "title": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?", "created_at": "2022-01-31T19:15:22.043808Z", "open_time": "2022-02-03T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-05T05:52:49.844028Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-05T05:52:49.844028Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T10:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in [November 2020](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743), following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in [November 2019](https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/773474657/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement). After the election of Joe Biden as President in 2020, the United States [rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/). In April 2021, [Nicholas Chan](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/america-s-back-paris-agreement-how-long) wrote for The Interpreter:\n\n>For how long will this moment last? Or will the world once again face a US climate “Groundhog Day” come the next presidential electoral cycle in three years? This prospect depends on whether the Trumpist foreign policy approach to multilateralism persists in the Republican party [...]\n\nThe [Paris Agreement](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) is a legally-binding international treaty on Climate Change, agreed upon at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference ([COP 21](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference)) The Paris Agreement’s long term temperature goal is to keep global warming below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5 degrees celsius. Global emissions would need to be [cut by around 50%](https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/15c/) in order to reach the 1.5 degrees celsius goal, and in 2019 the United States had the [second highest level of CO2 Emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country&Relative+to+world+total=true) behind China.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2029, the United States President formally notifies the United Nations that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, conditional on the United States President on June 1, 2025 being a Republican. An informal announcement that the United States intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement will not resolve the question.\n\nIf the US President on June 1, 2025 is not a member of the Republican party, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9627, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730437781.491108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730437781.491108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8106074399329568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32896445200073904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7002280305855083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007602456640810696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.062294604850334376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33585887633465483, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.37133940792101416, 0.0, 0.6322703890874932, 0.2072457012947375, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.04633782161954624, 0.023870451465686466, 0.23428625466487102, 0.19509404530659974, 0.0019144160966186434, 0.013918944094939177, 0.016841314468324528, 0.4550129867152591, 0.501305994553661, 0.0, 0.11194469502163641, 0.0014504254020369168, 2.6200608206024842, 0.5383919349891066, 0.44032106772840973, 0.9212861875064002, 0.0, 1.2124552189213087, 0.5771775393555332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.195942685551256, 0.6308999506477417, 0.0, 0.38882929505813285, 0.0, 0.5677813577285684, 0.21987004191048845, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8705331717859028 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289600.294027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289600.294027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22104293313990242, 0.7789570668600976 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in [November 2020](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743), following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in [November 2019](https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/773474657/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement). After the election of Joe Biden as President in 2020, the United States [rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/). In April 2021, [Nicholas Chan](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/america-s-back-paris-agreement-how-long) wrote for The Interpreter:\n\n>For how long will this moment last? Or will the world once again face a US climate “Groundhog Day” come the next presidential electoral cycle in three years? This prospect depends on whether the Trumpist foreign policy approach to multilateralism persists in the Republican party [...]\n\nThe [Paris Agreement](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) is a legally-binding international treaty on Climate Change, agreed upon at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference ([COP 21](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference)) The Paris Agreement’s long term temperature goal is to keep global warming below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5 degrees celsius. Global emissions would need to be [cut by around 50%](https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/15c/) in order to reach the 1.5 degrees celsius goal, and in 2019 the United States had the [second highest level of CO2 Emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country&Relative+to+world+total=true) behind China." }, { "id": 9612, "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Joe Rogan Leaves Spotify by 2023", "url_title": "Joe Rogan Leaves Spotify by 2023", "slug": "joe-rogan-leaves-spotify-by-2023", "author_id": 116137, "author_username": "Ab5A8bd20V", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-30T22:37:58.167106Z", "published_at": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.657954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:59:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 132, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9612, "title": "Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-30T22:37:58.167106Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-04T04:25:09.732422Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-04T04:25:09.732422Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-02T01:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Joe Rogan formally stops publishing a podcast on Spotify any time between January 1, 2022 to February 1, 2023. This would include Rogan moving to a different platform, getting banned from Spotify, or voluntarily ending his podcast. Public statements by Rogan or Spotify will qualify as a resolution source.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity, if there are any episodes of a Joe Rogan podcast uploaded during January 2023, this question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675180718.165866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675180718.165866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.00850161535722967 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.18359630987522, 10.126336697045275, 0.07779999212197547, 0.08296730385436298, 0.876947105458087, 0.003796761657783628, 0.007214324115901492, 0.02311084465712307, 0.030028909789862238, 0.0, 0.0017138817329584654, 0.0016780786857043893, 0.0013738396328811036, 0.0020342610001158465, 0.0, 0.0017397090916786624, 0.0, 7.56702636484951e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023258912110116926, 5.788371431893169e-05, 0.0029314120503869446, 0.0, 0.028670935781266615, 0.00037688365800011555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020569310263040925, 0.0, 0.002449430530375752, 0.00014433494072754334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026908155485828866, 0.00032717227925163487, 0.0, 0.0004318346030668858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011861405743641661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022340024404085782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.21215772543838, "coverage": 0.9998809278260034, "baseline_score": 71.86561735043162, "spot_peer_score": -2.9017575644445475, "peer_archived_score": 9.21215772543838, "baseline_archived_score": 71.86561735043162, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.9017575644445475 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675180718.188451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675180718.188451, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 343, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Several musicians and podcast producers have recently [cut ties with Spotify](https://www.forbes.com/sites/petersuciu/2022/01/31/spotify-wont-pull-joe-rogan--but-comedian-open-to-change-and-even-issued-apology-to-neil-young/?sh=171804ba5c2e), insisting that Spotify ban or censor Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience. Spotify's stock price [has fallen](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPOT:NYSE) from January 1 to January 30 2022, although it [rebounded](https://www.reuters.com/technology/spotify-says-it-will-add-content-advisory-podcasts-that-discuss-covid-2022-01-31/) following a public apology from Rogan." }, { "id": 9609, "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "short_title": "Orbán Wins 2022 Hungarian Election", "url_title": "Orbán Wins 2022 Hungarian Election", "slug": "orban-wins-2022-hungarian-election", "author_id": 106828, "author_username": "nostradamnedus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-30T06:46:35.201961Z", "published_at": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.521919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-04T02:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-04T02:16:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9609, "title": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "created_at": "2022-01-30T06:46:35.201961Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T09:04:50.200678Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T09:04:50.200678Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-04T02:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-04T02:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-04T02:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-02T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Viktor Orbán is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly following their next Parliamentary Elections, scheduled for April 3, 2022.\n\nIn the case that no elections are held between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648897482.412201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648897482.412201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7841696749434278 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00770178289475254, 0.0, 0.0, 9.426244767026915e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00040755850931587553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04255548999700331, 0.02424382739737664, 0.0, 0.00030137657078466016, 0.0, 0.002835369726469169, 0.0, 0.013639708628207967, 0.0008292641373765043, 0.029126905346086557, 0.09436706788333857, 0.560300224495353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007877560919778222, 0.854658412071857, 0.0, 0.004346102664200167, 0.370326250225673, 0.3776461893891205, 1.5882815500817413, 0.5287880271453185, 0.3657372213951706, 0.2181367051741592, 0.6259936812936366, 0.6518795032677112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.196758752243197, 0.0001477575317299807, 1.3837472031497358, 1.2172109835203584, 0.8458915825750233, 0.7198608831233145, 0.15954224426035626, 0.6760447504423548, 0.41828164944306395, 0.7100911807955614, 0.07795451351167267, 0.14411034009223067, 2.261190915389334, 0.06428469772868539, 0.0, 0.3196424751283814, 0.0, 2.3101456834876584, 0.7298060102915309, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4364326720249291, 0.14340985684034882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8650300765460914 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.558493325875404, "coverage": 0.9991193518212591, "baseline_score": 25.89823901190825, "spot_peer_score": 3.681999692414861, "peer_archived_score": 5.558493325875404, "baseline_archived_score": 25.89823901190825, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.681999692414861 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648897482.447383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648897482.447383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21131557157534264, 0.7886844284246574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 3, 2022, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. The main opposition group is [United for Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_for_Hungary), which is composed of parties across the political spectrum, united in their opposition to Orbán. It is lead by [Péter Márki-Zay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_M%C3%A1rki-Zay), a winner of the group's primary elections, who describes himself as \"a right-wing Christian\". He has also promised a new constitution and to support same-sex marriage. [Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) has consistently been divided between Orbán's party Fidesz and the opposition coalition." }, { "id": 9595, "title": "Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?", "short_title": "Missing xenon found and used?", "url_title": "Missing xenon found and used?", "slug": "missing-xenon-found-and-used", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-27T05:53:52.937435Z", "published_at": "2023-03-07T00:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.024734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-07T00:15:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-07T00:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9595, "title": "Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?", "created_at": "2022-01-27T05:53:52.937435Z", "open_time": "2023-03-07T00:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-09T00:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-09T00:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Xenon is a rare noble gas used in various applications such as ion propulsion, lighting, and medicine. However, xenon is much scarcer in Earth’s atmosphere than expected based on observations of other matter in the universe. This is known as the mystery of the missing xenon.\n\n[Some scientists speculate](https://gl.carnegiescience.edu/news/case-missing-xenon) that the \"missing\" xenon may be sequestered somewhere underground. Others believe it may have left the planet [long ago](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2012.11564).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if before 2040:\n\n- A new source of xenon is found on Earth that was not verified before March 3rd, 2023\n- This source of xenon is reported by at least two [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) to be under active exploitation for commercial use by humans", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746036893.269619, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.249 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746036893.269619, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.249 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.751, 0.249 ], "means": [ 0.24569259390706658 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8599853475437685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289090.365923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289090.365923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8826165295620099, 0.11738347043799019 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xenon is a rare noble gas used in various applications such as ion propulsion, lighting, and medicine. However, xenon is much scarcer in Earth’s atmosphere than expected based on observations of other matter in the universe. This is known as the mystery of the missing xenon.\n\n[Some scientists speculate](https://gl.carnegiescience.edu/news/case-missing-xenon) that the \"missing\" xenon may be sequestered somewhere underground. Others believe it may have left the planet [long ago](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2012.11564)." }, { "id": 9594, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "India first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "India first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "india-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-27T05:26:11.629687Z", "published_at": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.520975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-26T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-26T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9594, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-27T05:26:11.629687Z", "open_time": "2022-02-07T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-09T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-26T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-26T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-26T17:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if India is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9594, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710936664.090109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710936664.090109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.16790007105994686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4593524425592743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 1.326899425421849, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6122555804923113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 1.0340963455188152, 0.11036652594063484, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 1.3955762714157935, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711438581.1653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711438581.1653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9463290966471414, 0.05367090335285857 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly." }, { "id": 9591, "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", "short_title": "Tau COVID-19 Variant by Tau Day (6/28)", "url_title": "Tau COVID-19 Variant by Tau Day (6/28)", "slug": "tau-covid-19-variant-by-tau-day-628", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-27T04:05:36.275686Z", "published_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.625337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9591, "title": "Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?", "created_at": "2022-01-27T04:05:36.275686Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-31T23:02:10.020074Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-31T23:02:10.020074Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-28T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-06-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-27T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\n\nIn honor of *half-tau*, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\n\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"tau\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by June 28, 2022.", "fine_print": "The point of the question is to predict about a future named variant using Tau Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter tau and goes straight to upsilon (or phi, chi...)", "post_id": 9591, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656318119.891011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656318119.891011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02831688845383117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 14.882709866266147, 1.2369604329457038, 0.0919842418941221, 1.2789877026895402, 0.9895632174525978, 0.0026327402556635855, 0.0, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.132707244189118, 0.04760533033271864, 0.0, 0.029035969752679542, 0.0, 0.0021164611419844112, 0.5358813560936303, 0.010643065036039975, 0.05239206843449304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001786385954838424, 0.0, 0.07206795304728328, 0.1564245607209212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005782493790614267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002925428569857308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23107928024379015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013199706034642909, 0.0, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.028339210431168, "coverage": 0.9967670469239828, "baseline_score": 81.53452935564376, "spot_peer_score": 33.51618131063082, "peer_archived_score": 9.028339210431168, "baseline_archived_score": 81.53452935564376, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.51618131063082 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656318119.916583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656318119.916583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 331, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tau (τ) is proposed as a circle constant, the ratio of a circle's circumference by its radius; its value, 6.283185..., is twice that of the [most commonly used constant, π](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi).\n\nIn honor of *half-tau*, March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as Pi Day by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites. Some even more delightfully pedantic geeks, who contend that pi is wrong and want a pretext to eat twice as much pie, propose [tau day](https://tauday.com/) as a celebration on June 28 (6/28).\n\nTau is also a [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after ο, π, ρ, σ, which suggests it could be the name of a future named variant of SARS-COV-2 [declared by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, ν and ξ, have been skipped so far." }, { "id": 9590, "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "short_title": "Pi COVID-19 Variant by Pi Day", "url_title": "Pi COVID-19 Variant by Pi Day", "slug": "pi-covid-19-variant-by-pi-day", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-27T03:46:47.556720Z", "published_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.475007Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9590, "title": "Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?", "created_at": "2022-01-27T03:46:47.556720Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-30T21:12:44.349384Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-30T21:12:44.349384Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-14T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-01T10:16:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\n\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\n\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positive if the WHO has named any variant as \"pi\" or any subsequent letter of the Greek alphabet by March 14, 2022.", "fine_print": "The point of the question is to predict about the next named variant using Pi Day as an excuse. Therefore, it still counts if, for whatever reason, the WHO skips the letter pi and goes straight to rho (or sigma, tau...)", "post_id": 9590, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646124854.203081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646124854.203081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.1796051438461813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6804215504983121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7477925443628592, 0.14773311270320055, 0.0, 2.340792433353755, 0.0, 1.6322571052990194, 0.0, 0.24462232349102309, 0.0, 0.12416523409127544, 1.764396916911888, 0.22827058132403039, 1.3737939655128568, 0.0, 1.6126463301336473, 2.0010032033090184, 0.6816799268471402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6413923091695052, 0.4288136744233946, 0.2557548258437672, 0.0, 0.4905597065779065, 0.0, 0.6444449143373305, 0.09792807975184659, 0.00149289187086475, 0.8790677958799273, 0.0, 0.059612133892731824, 0.4350967574961479, 0.3403287769874526, 0.08158519982968242, 0.11682724816261775, 0.5746541075016902, 0.0075547168217016515, 0.02324625256275177, 0.0, 0.0013199706034642909, 0.027456518296150884, 0.024703040554572085, 0.01418294408817331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021164611419844112, 0.0004090313772021209, 0.0, 0.005782493790614267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003815156767960294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001682448467210726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02294876372005778 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.493148972734229, "coverage": 0.9991227311360624, "baseline_score": 20.114507984116287, "spot_peer_score": -22.523138350317325, "peer_archived_score": 0.493148972734229, "baseline_archived_score": 20.114507984116287, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.523138350317325 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1646124854.229276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1646124854.229276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8898266310795314, 0.11017336892046861 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In honor of the [mathematical constant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi) that approximates 3.141592..., March 14 (3/14 in American notation) is noted as [Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day) by various overlapping groups such as mathematicians, nerds, geeks and people who frequent prediction aggregation/tracking websites.\n\nPi is also the [Greek letter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet) coming after omicron, which suggests it could be the name of the next named variant of SARS-COV-2 declared by the [World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) - although two letters, nu and xi, were skipped.\n\nPrior to the current Omicron, variants Alpha and Delta were particularly notable, quickly becoming the predominant strain at their respective times." }, { "id": 9589, "title": "Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?", "short_title": "Nigerian Coup by 2025", "url_title": "Nigerian Coup by 2025", "slug": "nigerian-coup-by-2025", "author_id": 106828, "author_username": "nostradamnedus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-26T20:58:52.172761Z", "published_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.761819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T15:35:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9589, "title": "Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T20:58:52.172761Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T15:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-31T15:38:19.010064Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful [coups](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Nigeria) between 1966 and 1993. The country [exited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Nigerian_Republic) military rule in 1999.\n\nRecent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in [Niger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt), [Mali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Guinea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), and [Burkina Faso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Burkinab%C3%A9_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat).\n\nNigeria has been suffering from several [severe issues](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/23/insurgency-secessionism-and-banditry-threaten-nigeria) in 2021, including jihadist insurgency in the north, kidnapping gangs, as well as resurgent Biafran separatism. In 2021, The Economist called Nigeria \"[ungovernable](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/how-kidnappers-zealots-and-rebels-are-making-nigeria-ungovernable/21805737)\" and Foreign Policy called the nation a \"[failed state](https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/nigeria-is-a-failed-state/)\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if an armed group takes control of the government of Nigeria for a period of 7 days or more between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2025. This coup need not be brought by violence or assassination of Nigerian heads of state, but must not occur due to normal democratic processes such as a free democratic election or voluntary resignation by heads of state. Credible media reports will suffice as a source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735355131.447949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735355131.447949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028237723419235264 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.917671393872494, 4.272713269395063, 0.7570817838428039, 0.2724816781631971, 0.7854166835821663, 0.302104295873893, 0.5127039354901436, 0.4440282384044487, 0.009263038393261406, 0.32941610215541206, 0.07308694906691515, 0.315415117915081, 0.008103811609658203, 0.0, 0.05103894435429304, 0.18020598975152735, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10004675649055716, 0.021951255190573254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04099300666205092, 0.00406686720801615, 0.0, 0.090515909635905, 0.0, 0.012361280325170036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07210060232265658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03453192803547644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06671607559299088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031632211394261076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.17636783767365, "peer_score": 7.397848723615483, "coverage": 0.9985630826854093, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9985630826854093, "spot_peer_score": 6.941822242710807, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 84.17636783767365, "peer_archived_score": 7.397848723615483, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.941822242710807, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287771.930737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287771.930737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988740720234999, 0.0011259279765001395 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 274, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful [coups](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Nigeria) between 1966 and 1993. The country [exited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Nigerian_Republic) military rule in 1999.\n\nRecent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in [Niger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt), [Mali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Guinea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), and [Burkina Faso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Burkinab%C3%A9_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat).\n\nNigeria has been suffering from several [severe issues](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/23/insurgency-secessionism-and-banditry-threaten-nigeria) in 2021, including jihadist insurgency in the north, kidnapping gangs, as well as resurgent Biafran separatism. In 2021, The Economist called Nigeria \"[ungovernable](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/how-kidnappers-zealots-and-rebels-are-making-nigeria-ungovernable/21805737)\" and Foreign Policy called the nation a \"[failed state](https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/nigeria-is-a-failed-state/)\"." } ] }
_&_MSW3_(2005).png)](http://States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_distribution#/media/File:North_American_gray_wolf_subspecies_distribution_according_to_Goldman_(1944)_&_MSW3_(2005).png)){kind=link}