Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=440
{ "count": 6276, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=420", "results": [ { "id": 39388, "title": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?", "url_title": "Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?", "slug": "vox-27-youth-vote-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.747659Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T17:54:00.225903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:41.158796Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38765, "title": "Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.748062Z", "open_time": "2025-09-21T16:23:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T17:53:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 13:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nVox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n\n This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.", "fine_print": "• The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n\n • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n\n • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 39388, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758475363.970718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5566666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758475363.970718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5566666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4094809960292752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 13:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nVox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n\n This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747}}`" }, { "id": 39387, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "short_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "url_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "slug": "us-and-china-diplmoatic-engagement-on-nuclear-risk-reduction", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.032019Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T13:49:00.277287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.307936Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38764, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:40.032416Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T12:18:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T13:48:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-19 12:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36024). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36024,\"question_id\":35458}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the U.S. and China have engaged in discussions regarding nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction in 2025.\n\nThis could be any official meeting, working group, or diplomatic exchange between authorized representatives of both countries, or any track 1.5 or track 2 dialogues officially acknowledged by at least one of the U.S. or China.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if a new joint agreement, statement, or framework involving the U.S. and China is announced that addresses nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction.", "fine_print": "* Talks or agreements could involve any number of countries besides the U.S. and China, as long as both of them formally acknowledge or endorse them.\n* Talks or agreements do not have to center nuclear arms control or risk reduction, as long as they involve them to a significant amount.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding whether the criteria have been fulfilled, the question will be resolved based on the consensus of expert analysis from reputable sources, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Arms Control Association, or official U.S. and Chinese government statements.", "post_id": 39387, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759931249.539515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759931249.539515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4184247325669682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-19 12:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36024). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36024,\"question_id\":35458}}`" }, { "id": 39385, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "short_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "url_title": "Polymarket or Manifold real-money bets legal in US in 2025?", "slug": "polymarket-or-manifold-real-money-bets-legal-in-us-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.121760Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T04:59:00.307686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.353192Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38762, "title": "Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal in the United States in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:39.122180Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T03:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-16T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:43:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31340). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31340,\"question_id\":30969}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2025, Polymarket or Manifold can legally offer markets in the United States using real money.", "fine_print": "* This has to be legal in at least one US state.\n* A public change in law or government policy must occur for this to resolve as **Yes**, which could include but is not limited to court decisions, public CFTC [<u>no-action letters</u>](https://www.cftc.gov/LawRegulation/CFTCStaffLetters/index.htm), executive orders, or new laws. For example, if Manifold or Polymarket were to decide to accept risk under the status quo, satisfying the other criteria with no preceding change in law or government policy, that would not be sufficient. In the event the circumstances are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.\n* For the purposes of this question, real money includes anything that can be legally exchanged for fiat currency. For example, if Polymarket launched \"Polymarket chips\" that one could at any point legally both buy and sell using USD and it was legal to bet on Polymarket using those chips, this question would resolve as **Yes** (in the same way that gambling in a casino with chips is gambling with real money). Similarly any legal cryptocurrencies or crypto tokens (e.g., USDC) would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If Polymarket or Manifold markets operate using a custom currency (e.g., Manifold sweepcash), to resolve as **Yes** they have to explicitly state that users can exchange fiat currency for the custom currency and vice versa. Manifold's workaround that gives \"free\" sweepcash for mana purchases does not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Polymarket or Manifold restricting withdrawals only to money that has been previously traded would *not* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**. A restriction that would allow only money that has been won from a market resolution to be withdrawn, however, *would* prevent this question from resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39385, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760590334.253817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760590334.253817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5995013610992861 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:43:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31340). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Prediction markets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market) are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events. These could range from the [winner of the US presidential election](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) to [bird flu being designated a pandemic](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnewoutbreakph5n1/new-bird-flu-pandemic) or [an AI winning the International Mathematical Olympiad](https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat). Similar to Metaculus, prediction markets harness the wisdom of the crowds to provide [accurate](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq) probabilistic estimates for future events.\n\nPrediction markets are tightly controlled in the US, with very few of them (e.g., [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/)) being approved by the CFTC. The largest prediction market as of the writing of this question, [Polymarket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket) was fined by the CTFC in 2022 and stopped offering access to US customers. Another large prediction market, [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/) allows users to bet almost exclusively using play money.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31340,\"question_id\":30969}}`" }, { "id": 39382, "title": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?", "url_title": "Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?", "slug": "inditex-top-10-in-eu-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.601172Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:30:00.368846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.826150Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38759, "title": "Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.601583Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:59:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T19:29:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.", "fine_print": "* [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.", "post_id": 39382, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758567038.725085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758567038.725085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4024875580542084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021}}`" }, { "id": 39381, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "short_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the IRA's domestic requirements become mandatory for ITC in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-iras-domestic-requirements-become-mandatory-for-itc-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.035186Z", "published_at": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T08:09:00.343337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.351123Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38758, "title": "In 2025, will the domestic content requirements become mandatory for obtaining the IRA's Investment Tax Credits (48Ε)?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:37.035590Z", "open_time": "2025-10-20T06:38:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T08:08:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36488). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36488,\"question_id\":35923}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a federal bill is enacted that makes the [existing requirements](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-38.pdf) for the domestic content bonus credit mandatory for the Investment Tax Credits (ITC) described [26 U.S. Code § 48E](https://energycommunities.gov/funding-opportunity/clean-electricity-investment-tax-credit-26-u-s-code-%C2%A4-48e/).", "fine_print": "* If the domestic content requirements change, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new requirements are at least as strict as those estabished by the IRA.\n* The domestic requirements becoming mandatory for ITC only for specific categories of projects will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39381, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760946700.347371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.076 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760946700.347371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.076 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18303779948706553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 23.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-10 18:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36488). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn August 16, 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which [expanded](https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/summary-inflation-reduction-act-provisions-related-renewable-energy) the investment tax credits (ITC) for solar-generated electricity to cover all renewable sources, restored its levels to 30% of the project costs, and extended them through 2032. The IRA also established a [domestic content bonus credit](https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/irs-updates-ptc-and-itc-domestic-content-bonus-guidance) of up to 10% for projects whose steel/iron and a specific percentage of their components were made in the US.\n\nIn the wake of the 2024 US elections, Republicans took control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump [having expressed interest](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-inflation-reduction-act-under-a-republican-trifecta/#the-ira-under-the-incoming-republican-white-house-and-congress) in reducing IRA spending. At the time of this question, congressional Republicans were working on a budget reconciliation bill to possibly enact tax and spending changes to the federal budget (see the Tax Foundation's updated [Budget Reconciliation tracker](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/)).\n\nIt is important to note that in the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold a slim majority of 220 to 213. In March 2025, a group of 21 Republican representatives [sent a letter](https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-mull-thoughtful-phaseout-of-green-credits/) to House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith to urge him to phase out rather than eliminate the clean energy incentives of the IRA. House Speaker Mike Johnson [told reporters](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5167829-johnson-inflation-reduction-act-ira-climate-tax-infrastructure/), in regard to repealing clean energy tax credits among other policies, \"It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.\" It's important to note, too, that reconciliation bills do not always succeed. In July 2017, for example, Senator John McCain famously [cast](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/senate-health-care-vote.html) a decisive No vote to a reconciliation bill that would have repealed parts of the Affordable Care Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36488,\"question_id\":35923}}`" }, { "id": 39380, "title": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?", "short_title": "Fathom Radiant Product Launch by 2026", "url_title": "Fathom Radiant Product Launch by 2026", "slug": "fathom-radiant-product-launch-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:36.544900Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T09:21:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T10:52:00.337241Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:36.785287Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-26T09:21:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38757, "title": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:36.545313Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T09:21:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T10:51:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-12-06 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13913). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Fathom Radiant](https://fathomradiant.co/) is a public benefit corporation working to develop [optical computing hardware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_computing), aimed specifically for accelerating AI workloads. According to [PitchBook](https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/173893-33#timeline), Fathom Radiant has raised upwards of $10M since being founded in 2014.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":13913,\"question_id\":13913}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Fathom Radiant (or any successor organization) has launched a commercial hardware product before January 1, 2026, according to credible media reports. A successor organization is defined as any organization that incorporates the corporation currently known as Fathom Radiant through. For example, if Fathom Radiant is acquired, then this resolves based on whether the acquiring firm launches a commercial hardware product. If a new firm emerges through a merger of Fathom Radiant and another entity, then this resolves based on whether the acquiring firm launches a commercial hardware product\n\nA commercial product is defined as a product that is for sale to (select) end-users. Products for demo purposes only are therefore not included", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39380, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761475246.39263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761475246.39263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.11756718188928633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 5.0, 10.0, 7.0, 15.0, 3.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 22.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-12-06 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13913). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Fathom Radiant](https://fathomradiant.co/) is a public benefit corporation working to develop [optical computing hardware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_computing), aimed specifically for accelerating AI workloads. According to [PitchBook](https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/173893-33#timeline), Fathom Radiant has raised upwards of $10M since being founded in 2014.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":13913,\"question_id\":13913}}`" }, { "id": 39379, "title": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?", "short_title": "Are the Top 5 in 2025 technology companies?", "url_title": "Are the Top 5 in 2025 technology companies?", "slug": "are-the-top-5-in-2025-technology-companies", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:35.736672Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T04:56:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T06:27:00.302339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:36.240984Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-22T04:56:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38756, "title": "Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:35.737077Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T04:56:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-22T06:26:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35576). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe major tech companies, often referred to as FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), have dominated global market capitalization in recent years. As of February 2025, Apple leads with a market cap of $3.657 trillion, followed by Nvidia ($3.435 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.039 trillion). Amazon and Alphabet round out the top five. Notably, Saudi Aramco, a non-tech company, is ranked sixth, while Meta Platforms is ranked seventh.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35576,\"question_id\":35026}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025, the five largest global companies by market capitalization are in the technology sector, according to [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/). It will be answered as **No** if any of the top five are not considered technology companies.", "fine_print": "• For the purposes of this question, technology companies are those on CompaniesMarketCap's [ <u>Largest Tech Companies by Market Cap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tech/largest-tech-companies-by-market-cap/) list.\n\n• If CompaniesMarketCap stops publishing this data, an equivalent source showing global market capitalization ranking will be referenced.", "post_id": 39379, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758520715.619256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758520715.619256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7147621168895928 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 27.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35576). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe major tech companies, often referred to as FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google), have dominated global market capitalization in recent years. As of February 2025, Apple leads with a market cap of $3.657 trillion, followed by Nvidia ($3.435 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.039 trillion). Amazon and Alphabet round out the top five. Notably, Saudi Aramco, a non-tech company, is ranked sixth, while Meta Platforms is ranked seventh.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35576,\"question_id\":35026}}`" }, { "id": 39378, "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)", "short_title": "Which party will win the most seats?", "url_title": "Which party will win the most seats?", "slug": "which-party-will-win-the-most-seats", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:35.079803Z", "published_at": "2025-09-13T07:54:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T10:35:38.523970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:35.402567Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-13T07:54:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38755, "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Patient Focus)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:35.080207Z", "open_time": "2025-09-13T07:54:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-13T09:24:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-12-10 13:13:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20174). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn [2021’s elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Norwegian_parliamentary_election), The center-left [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(Norway)) won the most seats with 48 out of the 169 seats in the [Storting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storting) and formed a minority government with the centrist [Centre Party](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Party_(Norway)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20174,\"question_id\":20184}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Patient Focus'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThe party which wins the highest number of seats in the Storting in the first Norwegian parliamentary general election that occurs after November 25, 2023, and before September 30, 2025, will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39378, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757755463.013093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.021 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757755463.013093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.021 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.13475576909755316 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.0, 65.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-12-10 13:13:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20174). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn [2021’s elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Norwegian_parliamentary_election), The center-left [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(Norway)) won the most seats with 48 out of the 169 seats in the [Storting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storting) and formed a minority government with the centrist [Centre Party](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Party_(Norway)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20174,\"question_id\":20184}}`" }, { "id": 39377, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "short_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "url_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "slug": "will-france-call-another-election-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:34.503478Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T07:46:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T09:17:00.218000Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:34.787092Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T07:46:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38754, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:34.503876Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T07:46:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T09:16:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-16 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFollowing the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.", "fine_print": "If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n\nThe actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 39377, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759137366.011457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.226 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759137366.011457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.226 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.2890790326041258 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 17.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-16 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFollowing the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114}}`" }, { "id": 39376, "title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "slug": "will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.895267Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T13:29:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T15:00:00.283668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:34.186627Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-19T13:29:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38753, "title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.895679Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T13:29:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T14:59:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-20 21:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNew York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n\n* Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n* Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n* Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n* Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n\nNYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). ", "fine_print": "This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.", "post_id": 39376, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758292716.931727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758292716.931727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.6862834698129091 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-06-20 21:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nNew York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n\n* Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n* Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n* Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n* Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n\nNYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886}}`" }, { "id": 39375, "title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "slug": "will-australia-recognize-palestine-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.366538Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T16:21:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T20:33:43.173099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.601864Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T16:21:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38752, "title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.367013Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T16:21:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T17:51:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-26 09:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38939). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Australian government has [historically supported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93Palestine_relations) a two-state solution but has stopped short of formal recognition. In 2025, a growing number of Australian lawmakers, particularly within the Labor Party, have recently urged the federal government to officially recognize a Palestinian state. According to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/25/australia-news-live-marles-wong-aukus-trade-beef-submarines-productivity-summit-albanese-chalmers-ley-ntwnfb):\n\n> Former minister and Labor backbencher, **Ed Husic**, has said France’s announcement to recognise Palestinian statehood was the “perfect opportunity” for Australia to follow suit.\n> \n> He told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing: \"This is a fairly comprehensive statement that France has put out, and I think it is one that Australia has the perfect opportunity now to stand with the French to recognise the state of Palestine.\"\n> \n> He said the Labor party at its two most recent national conferences had reaffirmed recognising the state of Palestine, and the “brutality over the last 20 months” had led many nations to rethink their approach to this issue.\n\nThis comes amid a broader international movement supporting Palestinian statehood, including formal recognition by countries such as [Spain, Ireland, and Norway](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/28/ireland-norway-and-spain-recognised-palestine-what-has-that-changed) in 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38939,\"question_id\":38279}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Australian federal government officially announces that it is formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39375, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759945261.066728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759945261.066728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8396086276763284 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 60.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-26 09:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38939). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Australian government has [historically supported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93Palestine_relations) a two-state solution but has stopped short of formal recognition. In 2025, a growing number of Australian lawmakers, particularly within the Labor Party, have recently urged the federal government to officially recognize a Palestinian state. According to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/25/australia-news-live-marles-wong-aukus-trade-beef-submarines-productivity-summit-albanese-chalmers-ley-ntwnfb):\n\n> Former minister and Labor backbencher, **Ed Husic**, has said France’s announcement to recognise Palestinian statehood was the “perfect opportunity” for Australia to follow suit.\n> \n> He told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing: \"This is a fairly comprehensive statement that France has put out, and I think it is one that Australia has the perfect opportunity now to stand with the French to recognise the state of Palestine.\"\n> \n> He said the Labor party at its two most recent national conferences had reaffirmed recognising the state of Palestine, and the “brutality over the last 20 months” had led many nations to rethink their approach to this issue.\n\nThis comes amid a broader international movement supporting Palestinian statehood, including formal recognition by countries such as [Spain, Ireland, and Norway](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/28/ireland-norway-and-spain-recognised-palestine-what-has-that-changed) in 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38939,\"question_id\":38279}}`" }, { "id": 39374, "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)", "short_title": "Which party will win the most seats?", "url_title": "Which party will win the most seats?", "slug": "which-party-will-win-the-most-seats", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:32.784836Z", "published_at": "2025-09-12T13:57:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T15:28:00.243645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:33.032820Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-12T13:57:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38751, "title": "Which party will win the most seats in the Storting in the 2025 Norwegian election? (Liberal)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:32.785235Z", "open_time": "2025-09-12T13:57:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-12T15:27:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-12-10 13:13:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20174). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn [2021’s elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Norwegian_parliamentary_election), The center-left [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(Norway)) won the most seats with 48 out of the 169 seats in the [Storting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storting) and formed a minority government with the centrist [Centre Party](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Party_(Norway)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20174,\"question_id\":20181}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Liberal'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThe party which wins the highest number of seats in the Storting in the first Norwegian parliamentary general election that occurs after November 25, 2023, and before September 30, 2025, will resolve as Yes. All other parties will resolve as No. If two parties have the same number of seats, both of them will resolve as Yes. If a party which is not listed wins the highest number of seats, all questions will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39374, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757690664.186042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757690664.186042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06035394166848305 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0, 73.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-12-10 13:13:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20174). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn [2021’s elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Norwegian_parliamentary_election), The center-left [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(Norway)) won the most seats with 48 out of the 169 seats in the [Storting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storting) and formed a minority government with the centrist [Centre Party](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_Party_(Norway)).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20174,\"question_id\":20181}}`" }, { "id": 39372, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "short_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "url_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "slug": "sam-altman-indicted-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.610989Z", "published_at": "2025-10-29T03:34:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T05:05:00.272294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.916655Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-29T03:34:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38749, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.611388Z", "open_time": "2025-10-29T03:34:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:04:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-18 01:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19999). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIt is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was \"not consistently candid\" with the OpenAI board.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19999,\"question_id\":19999}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2026, Sam Altman has been indicted in the United States on any charge(s) alleging violation of state or federal law. The question resolves No if this does not occur.", "fine_print": "No conviction is necessary for a Yes resolution; this question concerns only indictment.", "post_id": 39372, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761713260.517196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761713260.517196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07041122500720874 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0, 16.0, 21.0, 9.0, 11.0, 14.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-18 01:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19999). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIt is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was \"not consistently candid\" with the OpenAI board.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19999,\"question_id\":19999}}`" }, { "id": 39371, "title": "Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will conflict b/t Thailand & Cambodia result in 500 deaths thru Dec 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will conflict b/t Thailand & Cambodia result in 500 deaths thru Dec 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-conflict-bt-thailand-cambodia-result-in-500-deaths-thru-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.160695Z", "published_at": "2025-10-22T04:38:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T06:09:00.247287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.393670Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T04:38:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38748, "title": "Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:31.161126Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T04:38:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T06:08:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-26 12:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38938). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Thai-Cambodian border dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Background) is an ongoing conflict centred around the 11th‑century Khmer temples of [Preah Vihear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preah_Vihear_Temple) and [Ta Muen Thom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prasat_Ta_Muen_Thom). Cambodia has relied on the [1907 French‑produced map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Siamese_treaty_of_1907), while Thailand argues it was never formally accepted, leaving roughly 4.6 km² of overlapping claims. The International Court of Justice [awarded sovereignty](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/45) over Preah Vihear to Cambodia in 1962 and clarified in 2013 that the surrounding promontory also falls under Cambodian control, yet adjacent tracts remain contested. [Border skirmishes in 2008–11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) killed fourty individuals and displaced thousands.\n\nTensions flared again on [28 May 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodia%E2%80%93Thailand_border_conflict) when troops exchanged fire near Preah Vihear, escalating over two months into the deadliest clash between the countries in over a decade, with artillery duels, Thai F‑16 strikes, more than 20 fatalities, the evacuation of more than 130,000 Thai civilians, closure of all crossing points, and an emergency UN Security Council session. On the July 25, Thailand [rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-favours-direct-talks-end-cambodia-conflict-rather-than-mediation-2025-07-25/) mediation offers from The United States, China, and Malaysia, saying that they would like to resolve the dispute bilaterally. In response, Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet [revealed](https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501725013/hun-manet-reaffirms-cambodias-support-for-ceasefire-amid-thai-retraction/) that Cambodia and Thailand had initially agreed on a ceasefire proposed by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, but Thailand retracted from it an hour before it came into effect.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38938,\"question_id\":38278}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia results in at least 500 deaths after May 27, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIndependent estimates of the number of deaths will be prioritised in resolving this question. These may include cases where an independent organisation has reviewed and explicitly endorsed one side's death figures. If no such estimates are available or if they are judged by Metaculus to be in error, this question will resolve according to each side's count of their own dead.", "fine_print": "* The deaths have to occur in Thai and/or Cambodian territory, as demarcated by their internationally recognised state borders. Deaths in disputed territories between the two countries will be included.\n* The deaths have to be caused by the overtly flagged military forces of Thailand, Cambodia, and/or their explicit allies in the conflict.\n* The conflict need not involve Thailand forces within the borders of Cambodia or vice-versa, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* The deaths must be caused by [kinetic attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* In case of conflicting information between sources, Metaculus might wait until the end of the tournament to resolve this question or might make a determination as to which sources should contribute to its resolution.", "post_id": 39371, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761112347.051694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761112347.051694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.09517706643527031 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 7.0, 11.0, 11.0, 4.0, 16.0, 2.0, 6.0, 14.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-26 12:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38938). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Thai-Cambodian border dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Background) is an ongoing conflict centred around the 11th‑century Khmer temples of [Preah Vihear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preah_Vihear_Temple) and [Ta Muen Thom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prasat_Ta_Muen_Thom). Cambodia has relied on the [1907 French‑produced map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Siamese_treaty_of_1907), while Thailand argues it was never formally accepted, leaving roughly 4.6 km² of overlapping claims. The International Court of Justice [awarded sovereignty](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/45) over Preah Vihear to Cambodia in 1962 and clarified in 2013 that the surrounding promontory also falls under Cambodian control, yet adjacent tracts remain contested. [Border skirmishes in 2008–11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) killed fourty individuals and displaced thousands.\n\nTensions flared again on [28 May 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodia%E2%80%93Thailand_border_conflict) when troops exchanged fire near Preah Vihear, escalating over two months into the deadliest clash between the countries in over a decade, with artillery duels, Thai F‑16 strikes, more than 20 fatalities, the evacuation of more than 130,000 Thai civilians, closure of all crossing points, and an emergency UN Security Council session. On the July 25, Thailand [rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-favours-direct-talks-end-cambodia-conflict-rather-than-mediation-2025-07-25/) mediation offers from The United States, China, and Malaysia, saying that they would like to resolve the dispute bilaterally. In response, Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet [revealed](https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501725013/hun-manet-reaffirms-cambodias-support-for-ceasefire-amid-thai-retraction/) that Cambodia and Thailand had initially agreed on a ceasefire proposed by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, but Thailand retracted from it an hour before it came into effect.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38938,\"question_id\":38278}}`" }, { "id": 39368, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025", "url_title": "Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025", "slug": "elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:29.445320Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T12:30:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T14:01:00.232950Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:29.804301Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-05T12:30:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38745, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:29.445798Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T12:30:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T14:00:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-06-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\n\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7444,\"question_id\":7444}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) on December 31, 2025.\n\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39368, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759672584.967337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759672584.967337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7368803270186252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 22.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-06-27 07:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\n\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7444,\"question_id\":7444}}`" }, { "id": 39365, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "short_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "url_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "slug": "fide-grand-swiss-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.458100Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.860275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.713489Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38742, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.458533Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:40:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T00:10:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 13:50:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39326,\"question_id\":38677}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a player other than one of the top 10 seeds wins the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39365, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756771004.059371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756771004.059371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.39612728555685345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-28 13:50:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39326). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39326,\"question_id\":38677}}`" }, { "id": 39364, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "url_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "slug": "saf-rsf-face-to-face-peace-talks-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:26.841110Z", "published_at": "2025-10-04T21:39:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T21:57:41.170378Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:27.232470Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-04T21:39:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38741, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:26.841511Z", "open_time": "2025-10-04T21:39:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T23:09:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-20 01:13:32 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39268). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39268,\"question_id\":38610}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **YES** if credible media reports or official statements confirm that both Sudanese Armed Forces ([SAF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces)) and Rapid Support Forces ([RSF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces)) delegations are physically present at the same location simultaneously for peace negotiations before December 31, 2025. Both delegations must be present at the same venue during overlapping time periods (not virtual participation). Any official delegation level qualifies, including military commanders, political representatives, or designated negotiators.\n\nSources for resolution include, but are not limited to, reports from Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, UN statements, African Union announcements, or official statements from the SAF or RSF.", "fine_print": "Informal or track-two meetings without official delegation status do not qualify. Meetings must be explicitly characterized as peace negotiations, ceasefire talks, or political dialogue—not merely humanitarian coordination. Sequential meetings where parties attend the same venue at different times do not qualify.", "post_id": 39364, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759618442.183197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759618442.183197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25752844211285636 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 22.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-08-20 01:13:32 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39268). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39268,\"question_id\":38610}}`" }, { "id": 39363, "title": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)", "short_title": "Non-Apple App Stores on iPhones", "url_title": "Non-Apple App Stores on iPhones", "slug": "non-apple-app-stores-on-iphones", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:26.216928Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T21:37:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T23:08:00.192487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:26.484961Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-24T21:37:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38740, "title": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United Kingdom)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:26.217349Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T21:37:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T23:07:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-02-19 15:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14135). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn 14 September 2022 the [Regulation 2022/1925 on contestable and fair markets in the digital sector (better known as the Digital Markets Act or DMA) was adopted](https://www.simmons-simmons.com/en/publications/cl5qyuy0o1h0y0a59y4osbiqx/digital-markets-act-is-adopted). Its primary aim are issues regarding [contestability and fairness in the digital economy](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/digital-markets-act-dma-goes-live), with a focus on prohibitions and obligations imposed upon Big Tech. The DMA impacts a wide variety of companies such as Amazon, Google, or Apple, with an anticipated enforcement date of March 2024.\n\nThe [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reported that the DMA represents the “biggest threat to [Apple’s] control over its operating system in 15 years”. \n\n> Apple is laying the groundwork to comply with tough new EU rules that will allow iPhone users to pick apps from beyond its own App Store, as developers seek to skirt the up to 30 per cent fee imposed by the US tech giant.\n\nThis comes against the backdrop of Apple’s legal fight with Fortnite maker Epic Games about Epic’s own app store that resulted in Apple pulling Fortnite from their App Store. The DMA may make it illegal for Apple to prohibit other app stores on their phones.\n\nHowever, as the [Financial Times]( https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reports, a potential workaround for Apple could be “sideloading”, where users are able to install software directly via a browser (without using rival app stores). \n\nWhile the DMA only applies to the EU, there is also the possibility of a regulatory spill-over to other jurisdictions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":14135,\"question_id\":14138}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'United Kingdom'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if there are credible media reports that either (i) sideloading is straightforwardly possible on iPhones without the need to circumvent Apple's rules or (ii) non-Apple app stores are available on the iPhone before January 1, 2026. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no such credible media reports exist before January 1, 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39363, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761346299.18821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761346299.18821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23129803727365808 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 8.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 17.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-02-19 15:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14135). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn 14 September 2022 the [Regulation 2022/1925 on contestable and fair markets in the digital sector (better known as the Digital Markets Act or DMA) was adopted](https://www.simmons-simmons.com/en/publications/cl5qyuy0o1h0y0a59y4osbiqx/digital-markets-act-is-adopted). Its primary aim are issues regarding [contestability and fairness in the digital economy](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/digital-markets-act-dma-goes-live), with a focus on prohibitions and obligations imposed upon Big Tech. The DMA impacts a wide variety of companies such as Amazon, Google, or Apple, with an anticipated enforcement date of March 2024.\n\nThe [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reported that the DMA represents the “biggest threat to [Apple’s] control over its operating system in 15 years”. \n\n> Apple is laying the groundwork to comply with tough new EU rules that will allow iPhone users to pick apps from beyond its own App Store, as developers seek to skirt the up to 30 per cent fee imposed by the US tech giant.\n\nThis comes against the backdrop of Apple’s legal fight with Fortnite maker Epic Games about Epic’s own app store that resulted in Apple pulling Fortnite from their App Store. The DMA may make it illegal for Apple to prohibit other app stores on their phones.\n\nHowever, as the [Financial Times]( https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reports, a potential workaround for Apple could be “sideloading”, where users are able to install software directly via a browser (without using rival app stores). \n\nWhile the DMA only applies to the EU, there is also the possibility of a regulatory spill-over to other jurisdictions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":14135,\"question_id\":14138}}`" }, { "id": 39359, "title": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?", "short_title": "2025 warmest year on record?", "url_title": "2025 warmest year on record?", "slug": "2025-warmest-year-on-record", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:23.814491Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T08:02:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:33:00.159090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:24.040157Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-18T08:02:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38736, "title": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:23.814897Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T08:02:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:32:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35268). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nGlobal warming and climate phenomena such as El Niño have contributed to exceptionally high temperatures in recent years. 2023 and 2024 were consecutively the warmest years on record. In early 2025, climate models indicate a continued warming trend. For more information, visit the [ <u>Copernicus Climate Change Service</u> ](https://climate.copernicus.eu/). In early 2025, [ <u>real-time data</u> ](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/) suggest that this year is closely following the record warmth of 2024, or slightly below at this stage.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35268,\"question_id\":34752}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF](https://climate.copernicus.eu) reports that 2025 was the warmest year on record based on global mean surface air temperature. It will be resolved as **No** if any other year holds the record.", "fine_print": "• If the Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF does not publish such a report or data by 7 January 2026, this question will be resolved based on their latest data or estimates, or the equivalent NASA report or data. If these are not available by 1 February 2026, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 39359, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758187558.248176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758187558.248176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26906421043389733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35268). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nGlobal warming and climate phenomena such as El Niño have contributed to exceptionally high temperatures in recent years. 2023 and 2024 were consecutively the warmest years on record. In early 2025, climate models indicate a continued warming trend. For more information, visit the [ <u>Copernicus Climate Change Service</u> ](https://climate.copernicus.eu/). In early 2025, [ <u>real-time data</u> ](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/) suggest that this year is closely following the record warmth of 2024, or slightly below at this stage.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35268,\"question_id\":34752}}`" }, { "id": 39356, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "short_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "url_title": "Ghana anti-LGBTQ bill signed into law before 2026?", "slug": "ghana-anti-lgbtq-bill-signed-into-law-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:22.003357Z", "published_at": "2025-10-20T04:32:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:03:00.212068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:22.242826Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-20T04:32:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38733, "title": "Will Ghana sign into law \"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\" bill before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:22.003775Z", "open_time": "2025-10-20T04:32:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-20T06:02:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-30 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37687). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37687,\"question_id\":37040}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Ghana signs into law the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill (otherwise known as *\"The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values\"* and *\"Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Bill\"*).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39356, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760939496.133979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760939496.133979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.35832507090810745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-30 11:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37687). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values bill - or, more simply, the Ghanaian anti-LGBTQ bill - is a piece of Ghanian legislation which aims to introduce restrictions on LGBTQ persons, essentially making it illegal to identify as any sexual orientation other than heterosexual.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_anti-LGBTQ_bill#Domestic_reactions), it was introduced in June 2021:\n\n> [Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_Parliament_of_Ghana \"Speaker of the Parliament of Ghana\") [Alban Bagbin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alban_Bagbin \"Alban Bagbin\") stated that LGBT+ rights \"should not be encouraged or accepted by our society\" and that \"urgent actions are being taken to pass a law to eventually nip the activities of \\[LGBTQ] groups in the bud.\"\n\nFrom then on, the bill successfully went through three 'readings', as well as several committee hearings. However, then President, Nana Akufo-Addo, failed to sign the bill into law, latterly refusing to do so until two Supreme Court cases challenging the legislation were concluded.\n\nUpon passing the Presidency to current President John Mahama, the bill expired, but the expiry was short lived, and those sponsoring the bill revived it with a renewed legal basis in light of both Supreme Court cases being [unanimously dismissed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrw2r8epw8o#:~:text=Ghana's%20Supreme%20Court%20has%20unanimously,forming%20or%20funding%20LGBT%20groups.):\n\n> A bill that would make it illegal to be anything but heterosexual in Ghana has been reintroduced in parliament with stronger backing than it got the last time lawmakers tried to get it passed into law.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> A parliamentary committee is expected to start its public hearings on the bill’s contents after it resumes from recess in May, said George, who’s also minister of communications in Ghana’s new cabinet.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [Ghana Revives Anti-LGBTQ Bill in Second Attempt to Make It Law](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/ghana-revives-anti-lgbtq-bill-in-second-attempt-to-make-it-law)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37687,\"question_id\":37040}}`" } ] }
