Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=440
{ "count": 5527, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=420", "results": [ { "id": 36329, "title": "Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "new-fomc-member-is-appointed-before-any-term-is-up-and-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-25T20:19:03.142689Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T20:44:26.709778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T17:03:24Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 229, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.400574Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T20:06:53.101594Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 35752, "title": "Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-25T20:19:03.143073Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n\n* 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n* The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n* 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n\nMembers of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 20, 2025 and before January 20, 2029:\n\n* A Federal Open Market Committee member resigns or is removed before their term expires and the US President designates a replacement, OR\n* The US President appoints one or more additional members to the FOMC beyond those expected under normal succession (i.e., through replacement of members whose term has expired or who have resigned).\n\nIf neither occurs before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will not resolve **Yes** until the nominee is confirmed by the US Senate.", "post_id": 36329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752971257.763135, "end_time": 1755221130.257024, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752971257.763135, "end_time": 1755221130.257024, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7395201502302429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.00045693539455668886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.119869106808585e-06, 0.0009293810653810694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3908761376318588, 0.0006874217597356591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11543303687260792, 0.00025481864806160945, 9.971573291963098e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008211337475896759, 0.4844944461206102, 0.00018644039351313466, 0.06396936381660934, 0.0, 0.3083775113764397, 0.0, 0.00014592803420382492, 0.0, 0.0003307208316661224, 0.09259462011546483, 0.24268545228375332, 0.10079910430565002, 0.0, 0.00039667352363900727, 0.0005249082435117379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007342772555414088, 0.12190967066931, 0.2724156165681624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007205647648243903, 0.0, 1.0022156686163253, 0.0, 0.00036919199266300957, 0.00011303259521083838, 0.0, 0.6080147222991822, 0.09615127878039642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1662949660084313, 0.19028834006978712, 2.672765178220107e-06, 0.1323506736575602, 0.10647445646724402, 0.5222401552319778, 0.21652526207718711, 0.1632352795690754, 0.0032238362518916966, 0.014272913054880034, 0.7619196710493358, 1.8688266431658014, 0.806310036316016, 0.0, 0.5543892342440258, 1.725423878777276, 2.7081607879318965, 1.5485476236204219, 1.455878800049176, 1.0083379373054517, 0.0032732778515788103, 2.4339961038874707, 1.2313453954813514, 0.02593771772804008, 0.02883217481474331, 0.21859256666870533, 0.556791963975318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2706863393901017, 2.213146285968723, 0.017213396020095306, 0.3768189243658209, 0.0, 1.739350620548693e-05, 0.43500872350985254, 0.0, 0.8733153894894964, 0.0, 1.623300552694365 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 473, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n\n* 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n* The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n* 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n\nMembers of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* " }, { "id": 36327, "title": "Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?", "short_title": "Will court change winner of '26 election for House, Senate or statewide office?", "url_title": "Will court change winner of '26 election for House, Senate or statewide office?", "slug": "will-court-change-winner-of-26-election-for-house-senate-or-statewide-office", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-25T17:32:24.360269Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T15:11:43.588401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:14:52Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T16:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.400574Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T20:06:53.101594Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35751, "title": "Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?", "created_at": "2025-03-25T17:32:24.360823Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Legal challenges to election results, while rare, have occurred in past U.S. elections. Courts have intervened in cases involving [<u>ballot tampering</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2018), [<u>recounts and vote-counting procedures</u>](https://mn.electionarchives.lib.umn.edu/election/2320081099911600/), and [<u>allegations of fraud o</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/paterson-new-jersey-city-council-voter-fraud/index.html)[<u>r election law violations</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/paterson-new-jersey-city-council-voter-fraud/index.html). President Donald Trump and allies have made unproven claims of election fraud influencing the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and various state-level midterm elections. The recent rise in national disputes over the results of federal elections raise the possibility of court intervention in the 2026 midterms, particularly in closely divided states or congressional districts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, a federal or state court issues a ruling that results in a change of the recognized winner according to the appropriate state election authorities of a 2026 election for one of the following offices:\n\n* U.S. House of Representatives\n* U.S. Senate\n* Top statewide elected offices\n\nIf the state election authority does not officially determine a winner, the winner will be determined based on reporting by the Associated Press or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf no election in one of the offices listed above has been overturned by a court before January 1, 2028, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, a top statewide elected office is any of the following: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and state supreme court judges.\n* The ruling must overturn the results such that the candidate initially reported as the winner according to the appropriate state election authorities is not the final winner and either another candidate is the winner or a new election must be held.\n* The decision to hold a new election will be considered a change to the outcome regardless of who ultimately wins the new election.\n* A recount called by the court will only suffice to resolve this question if it ends up changing the outcome of the election.\n* If a decision is later overturned on appeal, it will still count.", "post_id": 36327, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753024293.287956, "end_time": 1754563377.831503, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753024293.287956, "end_time": 1754563377.831503, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.2025860161927826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7306024317667452, 0.820459972660832, 0.30308422076957103, 0.09317537678101794, 2.3771145553827155, 1.097838846837999, 2.696358319801362, 0.369164281075347, 0.16948563158169122, 1.162582933863753, 1.198090426829189, 0.19873910968494823, 0.00641015356332571, 0.0, 0.7792708310757614, 1.080028851401773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5157884466982733, 0.0, 0.19792409008845638, 0.783692860633734, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.19559113849561743, 0.0, 0.4908754589000246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.7330766362587877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021832922439402977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016495806443394484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.029728711458096302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.603360266306767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11661334446446864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7432593519356102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008533746853385664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2569355379446483 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Legal challenges to election results, while rare, have occurred in past U.S. elections. Courts have intervened in cases involving [<u>ballot tampering</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2018), [<u>recounts and vote-counting procedures</u>](https://mn.electionarchives.lib.umn.edu/election/2320081099911600/), and [<u>allegations of fraud o</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/paterson-new-jersey-city-council-voter-fraud/index.html)[<u>r election law violations</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/politics/paterson-new-jersey-city-council-voter-fraud/index.html). President Donald Trump and allies have made unproven claims of election fraud influencing the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and various state-level midterm elections. The recent rise in national disputes over the results of federal elections raise the possibility of court intervention in the 2026 midterms, particularly in closely divided states or congressional districts." }, { "id": 36294, "title": "Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the US recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Will the US recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?", "slug": "will-the-us-recognize-taiwan-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-23T22:36:06.771481Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T18:15:58.372703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T17:03:06.931671Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 366, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.400574Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35733, "title": "Will the United States recognize Taiwan before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-23T22:36:06.771817Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-20T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to a second term as US president. Within the first month of him taking office, the US State Department [updated](https://thediplomat.com/2025/02/did-the-us-just-change-its-taiwan-policy/) the language on its official page on Taiwan, dropping the sentence, \"we do not support Taiwan independence.\" Additionally, members of the House of Representatives have [introduced a resolution](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/02/08/2003831541) calling for formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, which has gotten support from 22 Republican members of Congress.\n\nAccording to the [US State Department](https://www.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/) at the current iteration of its Taiwan page:\n\n> As a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is a key U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific. Though the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, we have a robust unofficial relationship.\n\nUnder US law, only the US President has the power to recognize foreign states and governments. (See, e.g., [*Is the President's Recognition Power Exclusive*?](https://www.templelawreview.org/article/is-the-presidents-recognition-power-exclusive/) Volume 86, No. 1, Fall 2013 by Robert J. Reinstein.) When the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek moved to Taiwan in 1949, the US Embassy [moved to](https://history.state.gov/countries/china) Taipei, with the US recognizing the government of Taipei as the government of all of China, including the island of Taiwan and the mainland. This state of affairs remained until 1979, when President Jimmy Carter established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, relocating the US embassy to Beijing, and terminated diplomatic relations with Taiwan.  \n\nToday the US maintains unofficial relations through the [American Institute in Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan), which although it has certain functions that overlap with an embassy such as passport services, is not an official embassy and does not have an ambassador. \n\nAs of the time of this question, only [12 countries](https://en.mofa.gov.tw/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=1294\\&sms=1007) have diplomatic relations with Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu, Eswatini, Holy See (Vatican City), Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines.\n\nSee Also\n\n* Global Taiwan Institute: [Taiwan Policy under the Second Trump Administration](https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/11/taiwan-policy-under-the-second-trump-administration/)\n* Wikipedia: [Taiwan–United States relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_relations)\n* Metaculus: [If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12794/us-recognizes-roc-independence-declaration/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) as a de jure sovereign state. This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:\n\n* The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state. For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's [statement](https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/07/09/statement-president-barack-obama-recognition-republic-south-sudan) of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's [statement](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/25/statement-by-president-biden-on-the-recognition-of-niue-and-the-establishment-of-diplomatic-relations/) of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count. \n* The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan. The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations ([pdf](https://legal.un.org/ilc/texts/instruments/english/conventions/9_1_1961.pdf)) not a \"liaison officer,\" \"chargé d'affaires,\" or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking. \n\nIf neither event occurs before January 20, 2029, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753042624.511103, "end_time": 1755223057.946389, "forecaster_count": 359, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753042624.511103, "end_time": 1755223057.946389, "forecaster_count": 359, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.1897875225171024 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2896047483429345, 0.7335301820443774, 0.9662077470146939, 0.029428195594425208, 1.2741364473039045, 3.3597825340268033, 0.28860865584735074, 0.26154262157933206, 0.5211649176479153, 0.6543394815989345, 4.151510188648347, 1.9240411749782989, 2.5939333355570264, 0.03295833487425256, 1.0533930578341775, 4.306272691203482, 0.0745252261759162, 0.5880921633686542, 0.6693320488419324, 0.3031257494556441, 1.8866726029154834, 0.0, 0.6593860792915665, 0.7189967967211843, 0.4453306788313969, 1.5530314002279089, 0.09197858294827262, 2.8084401976916525e-06, 0.44205866044738606, 0.0, 0.005505307306406142, 0.026379581298465293, 0.4971086624143474, 0.03782878489571034, 0.09690272917122968, 0.7874082778582886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21040056113524835, 0.0010020566482838258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14754402344916215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2331355729138316, 0.15578353509785262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2082224864577099, 0.05259910917487394, 0.06725805355373041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010833736976488928, 0.670391119047348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11979258730147165, 0.029598052878282422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032216180261799285, 0.022158456246591303, 0.008785743588584315, 3.60899027337739e-05, 0.0028211843755488854, 0.0, 0.0006051557804580595, 0.003410841786040308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08081528882800565, 0.0004199445989419979, 1.1988985368708265e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020701173413008606, 0.0, 3.296200880041598e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.173527893745993e-07, 1.0446478750861594 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 556, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to a second term as US president. Within the first month of him taking office, the US State Department [updated](https://thediplomat.com/2025/02/did-the-us-just-change-its-taiwan-policy/) the language on its official page on Taiwan, dropping the sentence, \"we do not support Taiwan independence.\" Additionally, members of the House of Representatives have [introduced a resolution](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/02/08/2003831541) calling for formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, which has gotten support from 22 Republican members of Congress.\n\nAccording to the [US State Department](https://www.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/) at the current iteration of its Taiwan page:\n\n> As a leading democracy and a technological powerhouse, Taiwan is a key U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific. Though the United States does not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, we have a robust unofficial relationship.\n\nUnder US law, only the US President has the power to recognize foreign states and governments. (See, e.g., [*Is the President's Recognition Power Exclusive*?](https://www.templelawreview.org/article/is-the-presidents-recognition-power-exclusive/) Volume 86, No. 1, Fall 2013 by Robert J. Reinstein.) When the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek moved to Taiwan in 1949, the US Embassy [moved to](https://history.state.gov/countries/china) Taipei, with the US recognizing the government of Taipei as the government of all of China, including the island of Taiwan and the mainland. This state of affairs remained until 1979, when President Jimmy Carter established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, relocating the US embassy to Beijing, and terminated diplomatic relations with Taiwan.  \n\nToday the US maintains unofficial relations through the [American Institute in Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan), which although it has certain functions that overlap with an embassy such as passport services, is not an official embassy and does not have an ambassador. \n\nAs of the time of this question, only [12 countries](https://en.mofa.gov.tw/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=1294\\&sms=1007) have diplomatic relations with Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu, Eswatini, Holy See (Vatican City), Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent & the Grenadines.\n\nSee Also\n\n* Global Taiwan Institute: [Taiwan Policy under the Second Trump Administration](https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/11/taiwan-policy-under-the-second-trump-administration/)\n* Wikipedia: [Taiwan–United States relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_relations)\n* Metaculus: [If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12794/us-recognizes-roc-independence-declaration/)" }, { "id": 36290, "title": "Will Lucy Letby's murder convictions be overturned within twenty years of her trial?", "short_title": "Lucy Letby exonerated by Aug 2043?", "url_title": "Lucy Letby exonerated by Aug 2043?", "slug": "lucy-letby-exonerated-by-aug-2043", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-23T12:07:41.188824Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T12:00:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:50.230206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T12:01:13.667375Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2043-08-19T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-08-20T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T12:00:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35725, "title": "Will Lucy Letby's murder convictions be overturned within twenty years of her trial?", "created_at": "2025-03-23T12:07:41.189163Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T12:00:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T12:00:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2043-08-19T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-08-20T00:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2043-08-19T00:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2043-08-19T00:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Lucy Letby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Letby) is a British nurse who was [found guilty of seven counts of murder and seven of attempted murder](https://www.cps.gov.uk/mersey-cheshire/news/lucy-letby-found-guilty-baby-murders) relating to newborn babies in the care of the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015-16. The jury found her not guilty of two further counts of attempted murder and could not reach a verdict on six more counts. Letby was sentenced to spend her whole life in prison. \n\nHowever, subsequent to her trial, many experts have come forward to state that they believe her convictions are unsafe and that Letby has suffered a miscarriage of justice. Specifically, Dr Shoo Lee, a Canadian paediatric specialist, assembled a panel of specialists to review each of the fourteen babies Letby was prosecuted for murdering or attempting to murder. The panel [found no evidence of any malfeasance](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8y28ny1n0o) and said that all deaths were either natural or due to poor medical care not specific to Letby. For example, Dr Lee's panel found that one infant collapsed because it was fitted with the wrong size tube by a consultant who \"didn't know what he was doing\".\n\nAdditionally statisticians, most prominently Richard Gill, emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, [believe that the prosecution seriously mishandled statistics in Letby's case](https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/). For example, the prosecution showed the jury a chart showing that Letby was the only nurse on duty during every single one of the deaths for which Letby was being tried, but did not show that there were other deaths of babies while Letby was not on shift, for which she was not prosecuted. Note that Letby worked at a neonatal intensive care unit and, as in any intensive care unit, some level of deaths were sadly to be expected among patients who were extremely unwell.\n\nThe British NHS has an [extraordinarily long list](https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/blog/2021-blogs/maternity-safety-scandals-across-the-nhs-have-any-lessons-been-learned/) of scandals in maternity units (not specifically NICUs) in which hospital administrators covered up deaths and injuries to mothers and babies, and gaslit families, rather than admit to mistakes, inadequate staffing, or poor culture. In Shrewsbury & Telford alone, [it is estimated](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60957400) that over 200 babies died unnecessarily over a 20 year period. The NHS also [has a regrettable culture of punishing whistleblowers](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66051884) rather than trying to fix the problems they raise. Given the institutional track record of NHS hospitals, it would not be surprising if administrators at the Countess of Chester Hospital had scapegoated Letby rather than admit to wider failings. Dr Shoo Lee, who convened the panel that found no evidence of malfeasance in the death of the babies, has said that if the Countess of Chester Hospital was in Canada it would be shut down for being unsafe.\n\nHowever, even if Letby is in fact innocent, the process for overturning her conviction is long and uncertain. The British legal system makes it difficult for people, once convicted, to challenge their conviction. For example, [Andrew Malkinson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrongful_conviction_of_Andrew_Malkinson) spent seventeen years in jail for a rape he did not commit. He was jailed in 2004; in 2007 DNA testing revealed that another man's DNA, but not Malkinson's, was present in samples taken from the crime scene, but Malkinson's conviction was not quashed until 2023, despite several previous appeals to the Criminal Cases Review Commission.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as Yes if, before the 19th August, 2043 all of Lucy Letby's convictions for murder and attempted murder of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital are overturned. Otherwise it will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "This resolves positive if Letby's conviction is overturned before the stated date, whether or not she is deemed to be entitled to compensation for her imprisonment.\n\nIf Letby is subsequently found guilty of additional crimes, including murders or attempted murders of babies other than those for which she was convicted in 2023, that will not affect resolution of this question:\n\n* If she is exonerated on the 7 counts of murder and 7 of attempted murder for which she was convicted in 2023 then this question resolves as Yes even if Letby is found guilty of other crimes against other babies. \n* If she is later found guilty of additional crimes and then those additional convictions are overturned, this question will still resolve as No if Letby's 2023 convictions are not overturned.\n\nThis question will still resolve as Yes if Letby is found guilty of lesser crimes against the babies whom she was convicted of murdering or attempted to murder, for example [manslaughter by gross negligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manslaughter_in_English_law), provided that the convictions for murder and attempted murder are overturned.", "post_id": 36290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750582390.560594, "end_time": 1837628756.438, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750582390.560594, "end_time": 1837628756.438, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6402796869774091 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6074449500598371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Lucy Letby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Letby) is a British nurse who was [found guilty of seven counts of murder and seven of attempted murder](https://www.cps.gov.uk/mersey-cheshire/news/lucy-letby-found-guilty-baby-murders) relating to newborn babies in the care of the Countess of Chester Hospital in 2015-16. The jury found her not guilty of two further counts of attempted murder and could not reach a verdict on six more counts. Letby was sentenced to spend her whole life in prison. \n\nHowever, subsequent to her trial, many experts have come forward to state that they believe her convictions are unsafe and that Letby has suffered a miscarriage of justice. Specifically, Dr Shoo Lee, a Canadian paediatric specialist, assembled a panel of specialists to review each of the fourteen babies Letby was prosecuted for murdering or attempting to murder. The panel [found no evidence of any malfeasance](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8y28ny1n0o) and said that all deaths were either natural or due to poor medical care not specific to Letby. For example, Dr Lee's panel found that one infant collapsed because it was fitted with the wrong size tube by a consultant who \"didn't know what he was doing\".\n\nAdditionally statisticians, most prominently Richard Gill, emeritus professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, [believe that the prosecution seriously mishandled statistics in Letby's case](https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/). For example, the prosecution showed the jury a chart showing that Letby was the only nurse on duty during every single one of the deaths for which Letby was being tried, but did not show that there were other deaths of babies while Letby was not on shift, for which she was not prosecuted. Note that Letby worked at a neonatal intensive care unit and, as in any intensive care unit, some level of deaths were sadly to be expected among patients who were extremely unwell.\n\nThe British NHS has an [extraordinarily long list](https://www.leighday.co.uk/news/blog/2021-blogs/maternity-safety-scandals-across-the-nhs-have-any-lessons-been-learned/) of scandals in maternity units (not specifically NICUs) in which hospital administrators covered up deaths and injuries to mothers and babies, and gaslit families, rather than admit to mistakes, inadequate staffing, or poor culture. In Shrewsbury & Telford alone, [it is estimated](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60957400) that over 200 babies died unnecessarily over a 20 year period. The NHS also [has a regrettable culture of punishing whistleblowers](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66051884) rather than trying to fix the problems they raise. Given the institutional track record of NHS hospitals, it would not be surprising if administrators at the Countess of Chester Hospital had scapegoated Letby rather than admit to wider failings. Dr Shoo Lee, who convened the panel that found no evidence of malfeasance in the death of the babies, has said that if the Countess of Chester Hospital was in Canada it would be shut down for being unsafe.\n\nHowever, even if Letby is in fact innocent, the process for overturning her conviction is long and uncertain. The British legal system makes it difficult for people, once convicted, to challenge their conviction. For example, [Andrew Malkinson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrongful_conviction_of_Andrew_Malkinson) spent seventeen years in jail for a rape he did not commit. He was jailed in 2004; in 2007 DNA testing revealed that another man's DNA, but not Malkinson's, was present in samples taken from the crime scene, but Malkinson's conviction was not quashed until 2023, despite several previous appeals to the Criminal Cases Review Commission." }, { "id": 36281, "title": "Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?", "short_title": "USD world's reserve currency through Q3 2028", "url_title": "USD world's reserve currency through Q3 2028", "slug": "usd-worlds-reserve-currency-through-q3-2028", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-22T20:37:41.441410Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T20:06:45.328284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:54.239091Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 283, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.400574Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 35720, "title": "Will the US dollar continuously remain >50% of global foreign currency exchange reserves through Q3 2028?", "created_at": "2025-03-22T20:37:41.441749Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reservecurrency.asp):\n\n> A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency maintained by [central banks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/centralbank.asp) and other major financial institutions to prepare for investments, transactions, and international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate. A large percentage of commodities, such as gold and oil, are priced in the reserve currency, causing other countries to hold this currency to pay for these goods.\n\nThe Bretton Woods Agreement, [signed](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brettonwoodsagreement.asp) by 44 countries during the waning days of World War II and fully implemented by 1958, established the US dollar as the global reserve currency, backed by gold. In 1971, the gold backing was removed, creating a freer floating exchange system, but with the US dollar largely maintaining its dominance through present day, with the dollar having maintained its dominance through the rest of the 20th Century. Since then, the dollar has slowly declined: \n\n \n\nIn measuring foreign currency reserves, there are 149 participating monetary authorities reporting to the IMF, making up, at the time of this question, 93% of total global foreign exchange reserves, which comprise the Allocated Reserves denominator of this question. The past ten quarters have been as follows:  \n\n| Quarter | Allocated Reserves | Claims in US dollars | USD % |\n| ------- | ------------------ | -------------------- | ----- |\n| 2022 Q1 | 11,648,450.85 | 6,868,973.35 | 59.0% |\n| 2022 Q2 | 11,123,391.19 | 6,645,024.43 | 59.7% |\n| 2022 Q3 | 10,693,546.50 | 6,426,887.46 | 60.1% |\n| 2022 Q4 | 11,040,016.36 | 6,460,211.92 | 58.5% |\n| 2023 Q1 | 11,651,746.63 | 6,831,024.07 | 58.6% |\n| 2023 Q2 | 11,176,208.14 | 6,640,387.20 | 59.4% |\n| 2023 Q3 | 10,977,207.73 | 6,496,517.58 | 59.2% |\n| 2023 Q4 | 11,452,982.00 | 6,690,479.00 | 58.4% |\n| 2024 Q1 | 11,492,539.59 | 6,773,359.98 | 58.9% |\n| 2024 Q2 | 11,460,174.15 | 6,674,649.62 | 58.3% |\n| 2024 Q3 | 11,843,255.07 | 6,796,979.44 | 57.4% |\n\nAs shown in the table, at the time of this question the USD is dominant at 57.4%. Other major currencies are the euro at 20.0%, the yen at 5.8%, and the British pound at 5.0%. The Chinese renminbi, which [is forecasted](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan-of-cofer-q42031/) by the Metaculus Community's median to rise to about 20% of the world's reserves in Q4 2031, was as of Q3 2024 2.2% of the world's currency reserves.\n\nThe Brookings Institution [reports](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/) the benefits that the United States gets from being the world's dominant reserve currency as follows:\n\n> The benefits of a dominant dollar have been called an “exorbitant privilege” for the U.S. It lowers the cost of borrowing and debt service for the U.S. government and American consumers; it also means that the U.S. can borrow more than it would be able to otherwise. For consumers, a dominant dollar, working through the exchange rate, reduces the cost of imports, making it easier to purchase cheap goods from abroad. The dollar’s global reserve status reduces the chance that the U.S. will face a currency crisis, in which a sudden devaluation of the dollar could halt imports, deteriorate the terms of trade, and cause a financial crisis. (This also works in reverse: Other countries become more susceptible to the dollar and U.S. financial conditions.) In addition, the ubiquity of the dollar gives the United States power over the international financial system—most notably in the form of sanctions.\n\nIn November 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected to a second term as the US president. The following month, John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank, [articulated](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/outrageous-predictions/trump-blows-up-the-us-dollar-03122024) the following scenario (Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar): \n\n> In 2025, the new Trump administration overhauls the entire nature of the US relationship with the world, slapping massive tariffs on all imports, while slashing deficits with the help of an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The implications for the US dollar are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the US dollar. Instead, safety valves are found, as global financial actors scramble for alternatives. China and the BRICS+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix, as this dramatic new chapter in global financial markets begins.\n\n> Potential market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold. The US economy continues to reflate, but wages keep up with goods inflation, as production resources reshore to the US. US exporters advantaged.\n\nAdditionally, economists at BNP Parabas have [pointed out](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217) that President Trump views the strong dollar as an impediment to strengthening US industry, so it is certainly possible that policies may move toward a weakening dollar, although at the same time there are other factors like the dollar's status as a \"safe haven\" in times of major economic uncertainties and new geopolitical tensions which could ironically drive the dollar higher.\n\nFor further information please see: \n\n* The Atlantic Council [Dollar Dominance Monitor](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/dollar-dominance-monitor/)\n* Steptoe [Shifts in Global Trade Landscape Accelerating Risks of De-Dollarization](https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/stepwise-risk-outlook/stepwise-risk-outlook-deep-dive-shifts-in-global-trade-landscape-accelerating-risks-of-de-dollarization.html)\n* Investec: [The dollar in a multipolar world](https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/economy/the-dollar-in-a-multipolar-world.html)\n* Wikipedia: [Reserve currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US dollar is greater than 50% of global allocated foreign exchange reserves reported at the International Monetary Fund's Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserve (IMF COFER) [data page](https://data.imf.org/?sk=e6a5f467-c14b-4aa8-9f6d-5a09ec4e62a4) for each quarter after 2024 through and including the 3rd quarter of 2028.\n\nIf there is at least one quarter in which the US dollar is equal to or less than 50% of global allocated foreign exchange reserves, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe percentage will be calculated for each quarter by dividing Claims in US dollars under Allocated Reserves by the total amount of Allocated Reserves.", "fine_print": "If the IMF ceases publishing official figures on COFER, Metaculus may use an alternate resolution source provided the methodology is substantially similar. If none can be found, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 36281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753042521.440019, "end_time": 1754789297.855796, "forecaster_count": 276, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753042521.440019, "end_time": 1754789297.855796, "forecaster_count": 276, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.621789884544268 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.012417980786065588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004173911110661432, 1.47513341499984e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003318184888804087, 0.004993894429320068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037243432710756883, 1.298431849821377, 0.0008035953228144908, 0.0, 0.1522353099862967, 0.4077854583181709, 0.030682683510266928, 0.0, 0.08880445462183321, 0.213800397313428, 0.0, 1.333681974479002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7992591520539943, 0.0, 0.7674912179350089, 0.0067764786357235275, 0.0054535229033885685, 0.4345209711226959, 0.0939078894062787, 0.7728437063326525, 0.0, 0.39500352720892856, 0.12094255674550551, 0.0, 2.147629263357877, 0.024013262451636264, 0.0, 0.44849424689823025, 0.2526337716472189, 0.8059173327036175, 0.06380454816656256, 0.04570724465092626, 0.0703916767076076, 0.0, 0.19459442348301165, 1.033321212620324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038499558281966935, 1.6232536184976216, 0.0028218232449994758, 1.673376476167253, 0.00021371664986061977, 0.07845864109107817, 2.0270380964685666, 0.9882907849293924, 0.37172948525733224, 0.006215649021924061, 0.12638978036112686, 1.187614000927092, 0.1540699682261269, 0.29574500038265955, 0.01170519328391458, 0.0003516079828738017, 1.457061769224346, 0.5470469450465282, 0.194834378154761, 1.4086911826139161, 0.6525720857791215, 0.9591945299349964, 0.0001502818465511482, 0.0, 0.25952293381042885, 0.9547128109380698, 0.3399931636652435, 0.001466468374417816, 0.38448659583737366, 0.0012902300112844936, 0.003037884483353224, 0.1898512002819131, 0.0018938049113254106, 0.6134035565421144, 0.08449084428847087, 1.1798126520070635, 0.00029516785849655655, 0.000218681340506774, 1.4398522329225308e-06, 0.0, 1.9163711307962088 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 504, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reservecurrency.asp):\n\n> A reserve currency is a large quantity of currency maintained by [central banks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/centralbank.asp) and other major financial institutions to prepare for investments, transactions, and international debt obligations, or to influence their domestic exchange rate. A large percentage of commodities, such as gold and oil, are priced in the reserve currency, causing other countries to hold this currency to pay for these goods.\n\nThe Bretton Woods Agreement, [signed](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brettonwoodsagreement.asp) by 44 countries during the waning days of World War II and fully implemented by 1958, established the US dollar as the global reserve currency, backed by gold. In 1971, the gold backing was removed, creating a freer floating exchange system, but with the US dollar largely maintaining its dominance through present day, with the dollar having maintained its dominance through the rest of the 20th Century. Since then, the dollar has slowly declined: \n\n \n\nIn measuring foreign currency reserves, there are 149 participating monetary authorities reporting to the IMF, making up, at the time of this question, 93% of total global foreign exchange reserves, which comprise the Allocated Reserves denominator of this question. The past ten quarters have been as follows:  \n\n| Quarter | Allocated Reserves | Claims in US dollars | USD % |\n| ------- | ------------------ | -------------------- | ----- |\n| 2022 Q1 | 11,648,450.85 | 6,868,973.35 | 59.0% |\n| 2022 Q2 | 11,123,391.19 | 6,645,024.43 | 59.7% |\n| 2022 Q3 | 10,693,546.50 | 6,426,887.46 | 60.1% |\n| 2022 Q4 | 11,040,016.36 | 6,460,211.92 | 58.5% |\n| 2023 Q1 | 11,651,746.63 | 6,831,024.07 | 58.6% |\n| 2023 Q2 | 11,176,208.14 | 6,640,387.20 | 59.4% |\n| 2023 Q3 | 10,977,207.73 | 6,496,517.58 | 59.2% |\n| 2023 Q4 | 11,452,982.00 | 6,690,479.00 | 58.4% |\n| 2024 Q1 | 11,492,539.59 | 6,773,359.98 | 58.9% |\n| 2024 Q2 | 11,460,174.15 | 6,674,649.62 | 58.3% |\n| 2024 Q3 | 11,843,255.07 | 6,796,979.44 | 57.4% |\n\nAs shown in the table, at the time of this question the USD is dominant at 57.4%. Other major currencies are the euro at 20.0%, the yen at 5.8%, and the British pound at 5.0%. The Chinese renminbi, which [is forecasted](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan-of-cofer-q42031/) by the Metaculus Community's median to rise to about 20% of the world's reserves in Q4 2031, was as of Q3 2024 2.2% of the world's currency reserves.\n\nThe Brookings Institution [reports](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/) the benefits that the United States gets from being the world's dominant reserve currency as follows:\n\n> The benefits of a dominant dollar have been called an “exorbitant privilege” for the U.S. It lowers the cost of borrowing and debt service for the U.S. government and American consumers; it also means that the U.S. can borrow more than it would be able to otherwise. For consumers, a dominant dollar, working through the exchange rate, reduces the cost of imports, making it easier to purchase cheap goods from abroad. The dollar’s global reserve status reduces the chance that the U.S. will face a currency crisis, in which a sudden devaluation of the dollar could halt imports, deteriorate the terms of trade, and cause a financial crisis. (This also works in reverse: Other countries become more susceptible to the dollar and U.S. financial conditions.) In addition, the ubiquity of the dollar gives the United States power over the international financial system—most notably in the form of sanctions.\n\nIn November 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected to a second term as the US president. The following month, John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank, [articulated](https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/outrageous-predictions/trump-blows-up-the-us-dollar-03122024) the following scenario (Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar): \n\n> In 2025, the new Trump administration overhauls the entire nature of the US relationship with the world, slapping massive tariffs on all imports, while slashing deficits with the help of an Elon Musk-run Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The implications for the US dollar are dire for trade around the world, as it cuts off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning, ironically risking a powerful spike higher in the US dollar. Instead, safety valves are found, as global financial actors scramble for alternatives. China and the BRICS+ transact with gold-backed digital money and, to a degree, directly in a new gold-backed offshore yuan. Europe rebases its trading relationships increasingly in the euro. Gold-linked crypto stablecoins add to the mix, as this dramatic new chapter in global financial markets begins.\n\n> Potential market impact: The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold. The US economy continues to reflate, but wages keep up with goods inflation, as production resources reshore to the US. US exporters advantaged.\n\nAdditionally, economists at BNP Parabas have [pointed out](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217) that President Trump views the strong dollar as an impediment to strengthening US industry, so it is certainly possible that policies may move toward a weakening dollar, although at the same time there are other factors like the dollar's status as a \"safe haven\" in times of major economic uncertainties and new geopolitical tensions which could ironically drive the dollar higher.\n\nFor further information please see: \n\n* The Atlantic Council [Dollar Dominance Monitor](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/dollar-dominance-monitor/)\n* Steptoe [Shifts in Global Trade Landscape Accelerating Risks of De-Dollarization](https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/stepwise-risk-outlook/stepwise-risk-outlook-deep-dive-shifts-in-global-trade-landscape-accelerating-risks-of-de-dollarization.html)\n* Investec: [The dollar in a multipolar world](https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/economy/the-dollar-in-a-multipolar-world.html)\n* Wikipedia: [Reserve currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency)" }, { "id": 36271, "title": "Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?", "short_title": "Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?", "url_title": "Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?", "slug": "will-the-2026-icpc-world-finals-be-held-in-china", "author_id": 207737, "author_username": "EmanuelR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-22T05:58:56.678842Z", "published_at": "2025-03-27T13:17:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T10:27:53.472113Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-27T13:18:06.515130Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-08-15T13:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-16T13:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-03T13:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35710, "title": "Will the 2026 ICPC World Finals be held in China?", "created_at": "2025-03-22T05:58:56.679182Z", "open_time": "2025-04-03T13:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-10T13:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-08-15T13:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-16T13:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-08-15T13:17:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-08-15T13:17:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The International Collegiate Programming Contest (ICPC) is one of the most prestigious global programming competitions, bringing together top university teams from regional contests worldwide. The event is organized by the ICPC Foundation and typically hosted by a different country each year.\n\n[Recent ICPC World Finals locations:](https://cphof.org/contest/icpc)\n\n* **2022:** Luxor, Egypt\n* **2023:** Luxor, Egypt\n* **2024:** Astana, Kazakhstan\n* **2025:** Baku, Azerbaijan\n\nFor updates on the 2026 World Finals location, visit the [ICPC official website](https://icpc.global).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"**Yes**\" if the [50th ICPC International Collegiate Programming Contest ](https://icpc.global/regionals/finder/World-Finals-2026)(ICPC) World Finals in 2026 is held in China, according to the ICPC website. Otherwise, it resolves as \"**No**.\"\n\n* If the event is hosted in multiple countries or held remotely, it resolves as \"No.\"\n* If the contest is canceled or postponed beyond 2026, the question is **annulled**.", "fine_print": "For example, the 2024 Contest [was reported](https://cphof.org/standings/icpc/2024) by ICPC as being held in Kazakhstan. 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The event is organized by the ICPC Foundation and typically hosted by a different country each year.\n\n[Recent ICPC World Finals locations:](https://cphof.org/contest/icpc)\n\n* **2022:** Luxor, Egypt\n* **2023:** Luxor, Egypt\n* **2024:** Astana, Kazakhstan\n* **2025:** Baku, Azerbaijan\n\nFor updates on the 2026 World Finals location, visit the [ICPC official website](https://icpc.global)." }, { "id": 36257, "title": "Will the US Senate weaken or eliminate the filibuster before January 3, 2029?", "short_title": "Senate end or weaken filibuster before 2029?", "url_title": "Senate end or weaken filibuster before 2029?", "slug": "senate-end-or-weaken-filibuster-before-2029", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 243306, "username": "jack.andolina" } ], "created_at": "2025-03-19T21:01:07.109184Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T14:39:38.871292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T17:02:33.636902Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-03T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 310, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.352072Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T21:09:51.400574Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-21T20:06:53.101594Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 35702, "title": "Will the US Senate weaken or eliminate the filibuster before January 3, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-19T21:01:07.109788Z", "open_time": "2025-03-28T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T16:02:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-03T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Senate filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to invoke cloture and bring most legislation to a floor vote, has been a defining feature of Senate procedure for decades. While the filibuster has been modified in recent years—such as in 2013 ([<u>for executive and judicial nominees except the Supreme Court</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senate-nuclear-filibuster-rules/story?id=20964700)) and 2017 ([<u>for Supreme Court nominees</u>](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/senate-kills-supreme-court-filibuster-in-historic-moment))—the 60-vote requirement for standard legislation has remained intact.\n\nAccording to the US Senate's [power and procedures guide](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm):\n\n> The Senate tradition of unlimited debate has allowed for the use of the filibuster, a loosely defined term for action designed to prolong debate and delay or prevent a vote on a bill, resolution, amendment, or other debatable question. Prior to 1917 the Senate rules did not provide for a way to end debate and force a vote on a measure. That year, the Senate adopted a rule to allow a two-thirds majority to end a filibuster, a procedure known as \"cloture.\" In 1975 the Senate reduced the number of votes required for cloture from two-thirds of senators voting to three-fifths of all senators duly chosen and sworn, or 60 of the 100-member Senate.\n\nThe upshot of the Senate's procedural rules is that it creates a practical requirement that any non-budgetary bill have 60 votes in the chamber to pass. With the Senate at the time of this question being 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, that means that the vast majority of bills needing passage in the Senate must have at least 7 Democratic votes. One recent example has been the Laken Riley Act, which passed with 64 votes in the Senate, [including](https://rollcall.com/2025/01/20/democrats-senate-laken-riley-act/) 11 Democrats. From the standpoint of the US government, the filibuster serves as a check on the power of the majority party, which becomes especially poignant when one party controls all three of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. \n\nAccording to political scientist Robert Van Houweling [arguing against](https://news.berkeley.edu/2021/06/15/the-filibuster-a-tool-for-compromise-or-a-weapon-against-democracy/) the filibuster when Democrats were in power in 2021, \"The filibuster is straightforwardly anti-majoritarian and anti-democratic.\" At the time the Senate filibuster was blocking Democratic agenda items from being passed, such as the \\$15 minimum wage and improved voting rights legislation. However, in the two months following the January 20, 2025 inauguration of President Donald Trump, Democrats in the Senate used the filibuster to prevent the passage of the following bills:\n\n* Barring transgender girls from competing in female sports ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/us/politics/democrats-transgender-girls-sports.html))\n* Creating criminal penalties for abortion providers ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/us/politics/senate-abortion-vote-republicans.html)) \n* Imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court due to the ICC's prosecution of Israeli officials for war crimes in Gaza ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/28/politics/senate-vote-icc-sanctions/index.html))\n\nSenate rules [were changed](https://www.americanbar.org/advocacy/governmental_legislative_work/publications/governmental_affairs_periodicals/washingtonletter/2013/november/filibuster/) in 2013 to allow a simple majority to invoke cloture on presidential nominees other than the Supreme Court, and then in 2017 the rules were [further changed](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44819) for Supreme Court justices to be confirmed with a simple majority. From a predictive standpoint it's important to note that filibuster rules themselves can ironically be changed in the Senate through a simple majority vote, in a parliamentary procedure known as the [Nuclear Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_option), which was used in the 2013 and 2017 rule changes. \n\nGiven the closely divided nature of the Senate and potential shifts in party control, changes to the filibuster rule during the second Trump term remain a possibility, particularly if a slim Senate majority believes it is necessary to pass key legislative priorities.\n\nIn 2017 during his first term, President Trump called for the Senate to end the filibuster, [tweeting](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/908640949605163010), \"With the ridiculous Filibuster Rule in the Senate, Republicans need 60 votes to pass legislation, rather than 51. Can't get votes, END NOW!\" This was quickly [rebuffed](https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/331597-mcconnell-shoots-down-trumps-call-to-end-the-filibuster/) by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The following year he [renewed his call](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/26/donald-trump-kill-the-filibuster-677151), which was again [shot down](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/27/mitch-mcconnell-filibuster-trump-678817). During the Biden Administration 2021-2025 there were frequent calls to end the filibuster ([example 1](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/the-filibuster-must-go-restore-majority-rule-to-save-our-democracy/), [example 2](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/case-against-filibuster)) most recently with Kamala Harris [calling for](https://www.npr.org/2024/09/23/nx-s1-5123955/kamala-harris-abortion-roe-v-wade-filibuster) ending the filibuster in order to pass federal legislation protecting a woman's right to an abortion. Thusfar since President Trump's election to a second term, Senate Republicans have [expressed strong support](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-promise-protect-senate-filibuster-even-hinders-trumps-agen-rcna179893) for maintaining the filibuster, although Trump himself has remained silent on the issue.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if cloture is successfully invoked in the United States Senate of the 119th Congress or the 120th Congress with less than three-fifths of all the Senators duly chosen and sworn, before January 3, 2029, on any debatable matter before the US Senate for which cloture currently requires the vote of at least three-fifths of the Senators. Otherwise the question resolves as **No**. \n\nThe resolution source for the Senate of the 119th Congress is at: [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/119.htm](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/119.htm). The resolution source for the Senate of the 120th Congress (which is scheduled to begin on January 3, 2027) is expected to be at: [https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/120.htm](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/120.htm) ", "fine_print": "* At the time of this question, Senate rules require a three-fifths vote of the Senate to invoke cloture on all matters except for presidential nominations. ([Source](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43331); see also [Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30360).) \n* The resolution links in the Resolution Criteria are provided for convenience, but if the official US Senate cloture motion pages change, then those will be used. \n* Resolution of this question is triggered through invocation of cloture with under three-fifths of Senators voting for it on any matter for which the three-fifths or more vote is required at the time of this question.\n* Note that a resolution of **Yes** requires invocation of cloture to actually take place. Therefore any bills that bypass the filibuster and thus avoid cloture, such as [S.610](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/610) which raised the debt ceiling in December 2021, or [budget reconciliation ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_\\(United_States_Congress\\))bills, do not count. ", "post_id": 36257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753024118.727214, "end_time": 1755074569.157826, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753024118.727214, "end_time": 1755074569.157826, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.24345014348107466 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6485214417760767, 2.2574462848519075e-05, 0.4529324331024243, 0.17911634011579108, 0.031979661967304056, 0.5263407532103099, 0.49686668957779995, 1.0948831132565577, 0.003064272341025771, 1.3393524713369265, 2.820012017780281, 0.18517459505267506, 1.2620498314742976, 1.4075954981523968, 0.04866204296139634, 2.854211365499344, 0.9555251057784271, 0.4824759306439884, 0.72277499039504, 1.026114417658024, 1.4044514333309674, 2.5029149876246928, 0.32714119917103684, 0.8272344507198336, 0.0002112172622085824, 2.0303530736782367, 0.3448781123635592, 0.0, 0.5772509246073795, 0.3657973751577034, 0.008397335726604928, 0.0, 0.15375953042588766, 0.0035101050014349137, 0.0, 0.1548692368121023, 1.9179483740673732e-06, 0.0025847690587416485, 0.0, 0.000178320012616064, 0.017654229505578753, 0.007930096332501952, 0.0002936045717370967, 1.132744056416175, 0.0, 0.00021397539567401703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.884334916474038e-07, 0.07158390054779586, 0.03852743578721184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005218985259382223, 0.48091393970742047, 0.1964865402509111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5591312627878882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43081171526830214, 0.0013368801761164091, 7.597545660927564e-07, 0.007034029243141111, 0.0, 0.0042857624285379675, 0.00011163551514120157, 0.0, 6.591895549793532e-06, 0.0, 9.999221219315795e-06, 0.0, 0.12943147482905643, 5.571098401681759e-05, 0.0, 0.3043648840858108, 0.0, 0.0, 7.889001876118728e-06, 0.0, 0.17976436539202556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6161005773158324e-05, 1.5381580048475472e-05, 0.0, 3.1921357542568203e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5117096419924323 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 490, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Senate filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to invoke cloture and bring most legislation to a floor vote, has been a defining feature of Senate procedure for decades. While the filibuster has been modified in recent years—such as in 2013 ([<u>for executive and judicial nominees except the Supreme Court</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senate-nuclear-filibuster-rules/story?id=20964700)) and 2017 ([<u>for Supreme Court nominees</u>](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/senate-kills-supreme-court-filibuster-in-historic-moment))—the 60-vote requirement for standard legislation has remained intact.\n\nAccording to the US Senate's [power and procedures guide](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm):\n\n> The Senate tradition of unlimited debate has allowed for the use of the filibuster, a loosely defined term for action designed to prolong debate and delay or prevent a vote on a bill, resolution, amendment, or other debatable question. Prior to 1917 the Senate rules did not provide for a way to end debate and force a vote on a measure. That year, the Senate adopted a rule to allow a two-thirds majority to end a filibuster, a procedure known as \"cloture.\" In 1975 the Senate reduced the number of votes required for cloture from two-thirds of senators voting to three-fifths of all senators duly chosen and sworn, or 60 of the 100-member Senate.\n\nThe upshot of the Senate's procedural rules is that it creates a practical requirement that any non-budgetary bill have 60 votes in the chamber to pass. With the Senate at the time of this question being 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, that means that the vast majority of bills needing passage in the Senate must have at least 7 Democratic votes. One recent example has been the Laken Riley Act, which passed with 64 votes in the Senate, [including](https://rollcall.com/2025/01/20/democrats-senate-laken-riley-act/) 11 Democrats. From the standpoint of the US government, the filibuster serves as a check on the power of the majority party, which becomes especially poignant when one party controls all three of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. \n\nAccording to political scientist Robert Van Houweling [arguing against](https://news.berkeley.edu/2021/06/15/the-filibuster-a-tool-for-compromise-or-a-weapon-against-democracy/) the filibuster when Democrats were in power in 2021, \"The filibuster is straightforwardly anti-majoritarian and anti-democratic.\" At the time the Senate filibuster was blocking Democratic agenda items from being passed, such as the \\$15 minimum wage and improved voting rights legislation. However, in the two months following the January 20, 2025 inauguration of President Donald Trump, Democrats in the Senate used the filibuster to prevent the passage of the following bills:\n\n* Barring transgender girls from competing in female sports ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/us/politics/democrats-transgender-girls-sports.html))\n* Creating criminal penalties for abortion providers ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/us/politics/senate-abortion-vote-republicans.html)) \n* Imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court due to the ICC's prosecution of Israeli officials for war crimes in Gaza ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/28/politics/senate-vote-icc-sanctions/index.html))\n\nSenate rules [were changed](https://www.americanbar.org/advocacy/governmental_legislative_work/publications/governmental_affairs_periodicals/washingtonletter/2013/november/filibuster/) in 2013 to allow a simple majority to invoke cloture on presidential nominees other than the Supreme Court, and then in 2017 the rules were [further changed](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44819) for Supreme Court justices to be confirmed with a simple majority. From a predictive standpoint it's important to note that filibuster rules themselves can ironically be changed in the Senate through a simple majority vote, in a parliamentary procedure known as the [Nuclear Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_option), which was used in the 2013 and 2017 rule changes. \n\nGiven the closely divided nature of the Senate and potential shifts in party control, changes to the filibuster rule during the second Trump term remain a possibility, particularly if a slim Senate majority believes it is necessary to pass key legislative priorities.\n\nIn 2017 during his first term, President Trump called for the Senate to end the filibuster, [tweeting](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/908640949605163010), \"With the ridiculous Filibuster Rule in the Senate, Republicans need 60 votes to pass legislation, rather than 51. Can't get votes, END NOW!\" This was quickly [rebuffed](https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/331597-mcconnell-shoots-down-trumps-call-to-end-the-filibuster/) by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The following year he [renewed his call](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/26/donald-trump-kill-the-filibuster-677151), which was again [shot down](https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/27/mitch-mcconnell-filibuster-trump-678817). During the Biden Administration 2021-2025 there were frequent calls to end the filibuster ([example 1](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/the-filibuster-must-go-restore-majority-rule-to-save-our-democracy/), [example 2](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/case-against-filibuster)) most recently with Kamala Harris [calling for](https://www.npr.org/2024/09/23/nx-s1-5123955/kamala-harris-abortion-roe-v-wade-filibuster) ending the filibuster in order to pass federal legislation protecting a woman's right to an abortion. Thusfar since President Trump's election to a second term, Senate Republicans have [expressed strong support](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-promise-protect-senate-filibuster-even-hinders-trumps-agen-rcna179893) for maintaining the filibuster, although Trump himself has remained silent on the issue.\n\n*This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* " }, { "id": 36250, "title": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?", "short_title": "US Russia China decrease Nuclear Stockpile July 2025", "url_title": "US Russia China decrease Nuclear Stockpile July 2025", "slug": "us-russia-china-decrease-nuclear-stockpile-july-2025", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "Russell-viper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-18T13:54:45.322006Z", "published_at": "2025-04-06T03:23:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T13:41:21.355088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-06T03:29:23.117998Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T03:23:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35699, "title": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-03-18T13:54:45.322369Z", "open_time": "2025-04-07T03:23:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-11T03:23:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> <u>according to </u>[**<u>Reuters</u>**](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-work-with-russia-china-limiting-nuclear-weapons-2025-02-13/)\n\nThe United States and Russia have expressed mutual interest in resuming discussions on nuclear arms reduction. In February 2025, President Donald Trump announced intentions to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to limit nuclear arsenals, emphasizing the goal of denuclearization during his second term.\n\nThe New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. While previous efforts to include China in such negotiations have faced challenges, the current U.S. administration aims to revisit the issue, potentially leading to a trilateral meeting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if at least two of the United States, Russia or China reach an agreement to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026. Otherwise this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "The agreement must be a formal treaty, mutual offhand comments will not be sufficient.\n\nThere must be a mutual agreement between at least two of the countries, separate statements or actions will not resolve this question.\n\nAny treaties before April 5th 2025 will not impact this question.\n\nA treaty does not need to be ratified, only being signed is sufficient to resolve this question.", "post_id": 36250, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753018870.73962, "end_time": 1753325066.157862, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753018870.73962, "end_time": 1753325066.157862, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.059738851024947734 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.0693457148698915, 1.3276358808405857, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> <u>according to </u>[**<u>Reuters</u>**](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-work-with-russia-china-limiting-nuclear-weapons-2025-02-13/)\n\nThe United States and Russia have expressed mutual interest in resuming discussions on nuclear arms reduction. In February 2025, President Donald Trump announced intentions to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to limit nuclear arsenals, emphasizing the goal of denuclearization during his second term.\n\nThe New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. While previous efforts to include China in such negotiations have faced challenges, the current U.S. administration aims to revisit the issue, potentially leading to a trilateral meeting." }, { "id": 36249, "title": "Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?", "short_title": "Will US-China Tension index exceed 2020 peak before 2029?", "url_title": "Will US-China Tension index exceed 2020 peak before 2029?", "slug": "will-us-china-tension-index-exceed-2020-peak-before-2029", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-18T13:14:17.515541Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T13:07:28.513289Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T16:18:23.234203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-19T13:07:28.513286Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-24T13:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35698, "title": "Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-18T13:14:17.515933Z", "open_time": "2025-03-24T13:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-28T13:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-28T13:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [US-China Tension index](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/US_China_Tension.html) (UCT) was developed by Rogers, Sun, and Sun (2024) ([paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4815838); see also [here](https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/UCT_May2024.pdf)) Like the [US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM), the UCT index uses newspaper articles to quantify uncertainty on a monthly basis. More specifically, it is based on:\n\n> the share of articles discussing rising U.S.-China tension, in particular, the share of articles containing mention of (i) United States (or U.S.) and China (or Chinese), (ii) contentious issues in the bilateral relationship, and (iii) phrases indicating tension. To determine the search terms, they utilize topic modeling algorithms, including K-means, guided LDA, and Newsmap analysis, to identify likely relevant words in a large number of manually identified articles that discuss rising U.S.-China tensions.\n\nThe index purports to correlate with other events and variables of general interest:\n\n> The UCT index exhibits close alignment with the views of business and policy decisionmakers. Its fluctuations parallel the frequency of U.S.-China tension discussions in corporate earnings calls and presidential rhetoric. Firm investment, especially for exposed companies, responds negatively to rising UCT. The index also tracks congressional anti-China legislation and U.S.-China voting dissonance at the United Nations.\n\nThe result for 1993 to 2024 looks like this:\n\n\n\nThe highest value so far, indicating highest uncertainty, is 349.95, recorded for March 2020 during the early COVID-19 pandemic. This value is approximately 22% higher than the next highest value, which was recorded for the following month.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if any value of the UCT index for any month from January 2025 to December 2028 (inclusive) is higher than that of the highest month prior to 2025. Given present normalization, that highest prior value is 349.95. Resolves **No** otherwise.\n\nResolution source: [http://www.policyuncertainty.com/US\\_China\\_Tension.html](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/US_China_Tension.html)", "fine_print": "Resolution is delayed in case the index is not updated promptly. If, by the end of 2029, data are missing for at least 12 of the months between January 2025 and December 2028 (inclusive), the question will be **annulled**. If data for 11 or fewer months are missing, then resolution will be based on the data that are available at resolution time.\n\nIf index is relocated to a new online source without change in methodology, resolution source will be based on new source. If the index is renormalized (currently the mean value for 1993 to 2024 is defined as 100), this will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 36249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752250692.766945, "end_time": 1754745169.541943, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752250692.766945, "end_time": 1754745169.541943, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7452214152910241 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 1.7678722045060846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218723441135719 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [US-China Tension index](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/US_China_Tension.html) (UCT) was developed by Rogers, Sun, and Sun (2024) ([paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4815838); see also [here](https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/2024-08/UCT_May2024.pdf)) Like the [US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM), the UCT index uses newspaper articles to quantify uncertainty on a monthly basis. More specifically, it is based on:\n\n> the share of articles discussing rising U.S.-China tension, in particular, the share of articles containing mention of (i) United States (or U.S.) and China (or Chinese), (ii) contentious issues in the bilateral relationship, and (iii) phrases indicating tension. To determine the search terms, they utilize topic modeling algorithms, including K-means, guided LDA, and Newsmap analysis, to identify likely relevant words in a large number of manually identified articles that discuss rising U.S.-China tensions.\n\nThe index purports to correlate with other events and variables of general interest:\n\n> The UCT index exhibits close alignment with the views of business and policy decisionmakers. Its fluctuations parallel the frequency of U.S.-China tension discussions in corporate earnings calls and presidential rhetoric. Firm investment, especially for exposed companies, responds negatively to rising UCT. The index also tracks congressional anti-China legislation and U.S.-China voting dissonance at the United Nations.\n\nThe result for 1993 to 2024 looks like this:\n\n\n\nThe highest value so far, indicating highest uncertainty, is 349.95, recorded for March 2020 during the early COVID-19 pandemic. This value is approximately 22% higher than the next highest value, which was recorded for the following month." }, { "id": 36206, "title": "Will Bitcoin’s price drop below 50% of its highest recorded price at any point before 2040?", "short_title": "Will bitcoin drop below 50% of it's all-time peak?", "url_title": "Will bitcoin drop below 50% of it's all-time peak?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-drop-below-50-of-its-all-time-peak", "author_id": 115542, "author_username": "JBerman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-17T15:11:54.136894Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T15:52:04.658825Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:27.185622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-17T15:52:04.658822Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T01:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:50:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35645, "title": "Will Bitcoin’s price drop below 50% of its highest recorded price at any point before 2040?", "created_at": "2025-03-17T15:11:54.137226Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:50:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-22T15:50:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-22T15:50:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T01:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T01:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T01:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, known for its volatility and historical price cycles. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple bull and bear markets, with rapid price increases followed by significant corrections. In past cycles, Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value from previous all-time highs before eventually recovering or reaching new peaks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bitcoin's price drops below 50% of its highest recorded all-time peak at any point after December 31, 2024 and before January 1, 2040, according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, this question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the values in the Low column of CoinMarketCap historical data are lower than 50% of any previous all-time high, determined using the High column of CoinMarketCap.\n* If CoinMarketCap ceases reporting these data, Metaculus might choose alternative credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 36206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750297949.713871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750297949.713871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8662029764283243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5637254669858807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.30235531220200856, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5754832829804437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999373037131327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.274295135023273, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1429663616697434 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, known for its volatility and historical price cycles. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple bull and bear markets, with rapid price increases followed by significant corrections. In past cycles, Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value from previous all-time highs before eventually recovering or reaching new peaks." }, { "id": 36201, "title": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?", "short_title": "TurkStream or Blue Stream stop transporting gas in 2025?", "url_title": "TurkStream or Blue Stream stop transporting gas in 2025?", "slug": "turkstream-or-blue-stream-stop-transporting-gas-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-17T13:12:38.325987Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T19:03:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-05T01:56:04.600970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-17T19:03:27Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T19:03:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 35641, "title": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-17T13:12:38.326376Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T19:03:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-22T19:03:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-22T19:03:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Both pipelines are critical for energy security in Europe and Turkey, but they face challenges related to geopolitical tensions and contract expirations. \n\nConcerning the TurkStream Pipeline, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream reached [a new](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/russian-gas-deliveries-via-turkstream-set-new-record-118255/) [all-time high](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russian-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-turkstream-hit-new-all-time-high-in-january-a87962) in early 2025. This increase is partly due to Ukraine halting its transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, 2025, making TurkStream [the sole route](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TurkStream#Route) for Russian gas deliveries to Europe.\n\nFurther, Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to attack the TurkStream pipeline on [multiple](https://energynews.pro/en/russia-accuses-ukraine-again-of-attacking-the-turkstream-pipeline/) [occasions](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-repelled-ukrainian-drone-192450297.html). In March 2025, Russia [claimed](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/russia-says-thwarted-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-turkstream-pipeline) to have intercepted drones targeting the pipeline, which it views as attempts to disrupt gas deliveries to Europe. \n\nConcerning the Blue Stream pipeline, the major gas contract between Gazprom and Turkey for the pipeline [is set to expire](https://energynews.pro/en/turkey-facing-the-expiration-of-major-gas-contracts-in-2025-2026/) at the end of 2025. The Blue Stream pipeline is crucial for Turkey, providing about 60% of its Russian gas imports. However, occasional maintenance shutdowns and geopolitical tensions may pose challenges for Turkey's energy security.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the TurkStream or the Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas for any reason and for any length of time before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"unexpectedly\" excludes any scheduled maintenance, changes in Turkey's import/export strategy, or similar pauses in gas transportation. Discovering during a scheduled maintenance it is discovered that the pipeline should be closed for a longer period of time for repairs will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 36201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753037658.614126, "end_time": 1753776852.772038, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753037658.614126, "end_time": 1753776852.772038, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.12769672353079542 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Both pipelines are critical for energy security in Europe and Turkey, but they face challenges related to geopolitical tensions and contract expirations. \n\nConcerning the TurkStream Pipeline, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream reached [a new](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/russian-gas-deliveries-via-turkstream-set-new-record-118255/) [all-time high](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russian-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-turkstream-hit-new-all-time-high-in-january-a87962) in early 2025. This increase is partly due to Ukraine halting its transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, 2025, making TurkStream [the sole route](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TurkStream#Route) for Russian gas deliveries to Europe.\n\nFurther, Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to attack the TurkStream pipeline on [multiple](https://energynews.pro/en/russia-accuses-ukraine-again-of-attacking-the-turkstream-pipeline/) [occasions](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-repelled-ukrainian-drone-192450297.html). In March 2025, Russia [claimed](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/russia-says-thwarted-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-turkstream-pipeline) to have intercepted drones targeting the pipeline, which it views as attempts to disrupt gas deliveries to Europe. \n\nConcerning the Blue Stream pipeline, the major gas contract between Gazprom and Turkey for the pipeline [is set to expire](https://energynews.pro/en/turkey-facing-the-expiration-of-major-gas-contracts-in-2025-2026/) at the end of 2025. The Blue Stream pipeline is crucial for Turkey, providing about 60% of its Russian gas imports. However, occasional maintenance shutdowns and geopolitical tensions may pose challenges for Turkey's energy security." }, { "id": 36197, "title": "Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?", "short_title": "Will ICJ find Israel committed genocide?", "url_title": "Will ICJ find Israel committed genocide?", "slug": "will-icj-find-israel-committed-genocide", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-16T20:16:56.050029Z", "published_at": "2025-03-26T00:39:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T16:06:23.611021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-26T00:40:45.222080Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T00:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35637, "title": "Will the ICJ find that Israel committed genocide?", "created_at": "2025-03-16T20:16:56.050460Z", "open_time": "2025-03-30T00:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-05T20:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-12-31T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently hearing a case brought by South Africa against Israel under the Genocide Convention regarding Israel's military operations in Gaza. On December 29, 2023, South Africa filed an application instituting proceedings against Israel, alleging violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.\r\n\r\nIn January 2024, the ICJ issued provisional measures, finding that some of the rights claimed by South Africa, including protection from acts of genocide, are plausible. However, these preliminary findings do not constitute a final determination on whether genocide has occurred. The ICJ ordered Israel to take measures to prevent acts of genocide and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, but did not order a suspension of military operations.\r\n\r\nSee also the Metaculus question [Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31071/israel-found-guilty-in-sas-icj-genocide-case-before-2027/) (That question does not require Israel to be guilty of genocide, in contrast with the present one.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **YES** if the International Court of Justice issues a final judgment finding that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza in violation of the Genocide Convention in the case \"[Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel)](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192)\".\r\n\r\nThe question will resolve to **NO** if:\r\n\r\n* The ICJ issues a final judgment that does not find Israel committed genocide, even if Israel is guilty of other charges.\r\n* The case is withdrawn, dismissed, or otherwise terminated without a finding of genocide\r\n* The ICJ determines it lacks jurisdiction to rule on the merits of the case\r\n* There is no verdict before January 1, 2031", "fine_print": "This question is about whether or not the ICJ will find Israel specifically guilty of *genocide*, not whether Israel will be found to be in breach of the Genocide Convention. For example, in [Croatia v. Serbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia–Serbia_genocide_case) the ICJ found that Serbia did not commit genocide but nonetheless had violated international law. If such a scenario happens here, the question resolves as **No**. 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On December 29, 2023, South Africa filed an application instituting proceedings against Israel, alleging violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.\r\n\r\nIn January 2024, the ICJ issued provisional measures, finding that some of the rights claimed by South Africa, including protection from acts of genocide, are plausible. However, these preliminary findings do not constitute a final determination on whether genocide has occurred. The ICJ ordered Israel to take measures to prevent acts of genocide and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, but did not order a suspension of military operations.\r\n\r\nSee also the Metaculus question [Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31071/israel-found-guilty-in-sas-icj-genocide-case-before-2027/) (That question does not require Israel to be guilty of genocide, in contrast with the present one.)" }, { "id": 36184, "title": "Will Elon Musk, Donald Trump, or JD Vance visit Fort Knox before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-donald-trump-or-jd-vance-visit-fort-knox-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.723389Z", "published_at": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:36.062276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35621, "title": "Will Elon Musk, Donald Trump, or JD Vance visit Fort Knox before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.723389Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:15:46.343636Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Trump, Musk want to visit Fort Knox gold. Here's how the last few visits to the vault went](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/28/donald-trump-elon-musk-want-to-visit-fort-knox-gold-depository/80067497007/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, or JD Vance has personally set foot on the grounds of the Fort Knox US Army installation in Kentucky.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36184, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742491466.573129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742491466.573129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.23877815565291138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.628759070261099, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4996443612961396, 0.021350191862830815, 2.4636185076314057, 0.0, 1.545781287819571, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7201524751518927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15674622796992077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.169061196079502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.20223888742865265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9640223824771079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.93084240388207, "peer_score": 29.20335865571471, "coverage": 0.9969821051425405, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9969821051425405, "spot_peer_score": 32.624547042066936, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 73.93084240388207, "peer_archived_score": 29.20335865571471, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.624547042066936, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trump, Musk want to visit Fort Knox gold. Here's how the last few visits to the vault went](https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2025/02/28/donald-trump-elon-musk-want-to-visit-fort-knox-gold-depository/80067497007/)" }, { "id": 36183, "title": "Will BC Hydro still exclude Tesla from its EV charger rebate program for single-family homes in April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bc-hydro-still-exclude-tesla-from-its-ev-charger-rebate-program-for-single-family-homes-in-april-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.692427Z", "published_at": "2025-03-20T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:33.550354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35620, "title": "Will BC Hydro still exclude Tesla from its EV charger rebate program for single-family homes in April 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.692427Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T01:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T01:44:15.774447Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"The Government of B.C. and BC Hydro are taking action to preference Canadian goods in our rebate programs going forward and to exclude, where practicable, U.S. produced goods. As of March 12, 2025, Tesla products (electric vehicle chargers, energy storage batteries and inverters) are not eligible for CleanBC and BC Hydro rebates. If you purchased or have received pre-approval for your Tesla product before March 12, 2025, it can still qualify for rebates and will be processed as normal.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if BC Hydro at [this page](https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/electric-vehicles/rebates-incentives/rebates-home-chargers.html) says that Tesla products are not eligible for the EV charger at home program. 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