Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4400
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4380", "results": [ { "id": 9587, "title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", "short_title": "NFT Presented at Art Basel 2030", "url_title": "NFT Presented at Art Basel 2030", "slug": "nft-presented-at-art-basel-2030", "author_id": 120835, "author_username": "shcabot", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-01-26T19:30:32.576837Z", "published_at": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.451439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9587, "title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T19:30:32.576837Z", "open_time": "2022-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/)\n\n----\n\n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if any work presented at Art Basel in 2030 is available for sale as a [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). Art presented at any of the 2030 Art Basel fairs (Basel, Miami Beach, Hong Kong) will be sufficient to resolve the question. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\n\nIf no events are held by Art Basel in 2030, resolution may include events in 2031. If there are no such events by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9587, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762833162.06878, "end_time": 1768278866.87244, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762833162.06878, "end_time": 1768278866.87244, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.6023579661438809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8574059730133308, 0.49114657277085993, 0.34929448606544333, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.5935248795209733, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289773.165433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289773.165433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5164024035139565, 0.48359759648604345 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/)\n\n----\n\n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world’s premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021." }, { "id": 9585, "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "short_title": "L. Kruger confirmed to SCOTUS before 2023", "url_title": "L. Kruger confirmed to SCOTUS before 2023", "slug": "l-kruger-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-26T17:47:56.461052Z", "published_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.994261Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9585, "title": "Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T17:47:56.461052Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\n\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\n\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\n\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Leondra Kruger is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. It resolves negatively if this does not happen", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672486114.457821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672486114.457821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03068854322776676 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.048615736955345, 0.8685167821191202, 0.12813930876114285, 0.11129089538447783, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05351003985049547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03585734392959071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028938014188489144, 0.0, 0.3102567876624199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05886339947918327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12986291637201536 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.224146173915921, "coverage": 0.9979826715995082, "baseline_score": 91.67338468185346, "spot_peer_score": -1.1985228877045104, "peer_archived_score": 14.224146173915921, "baseline_archived_score": 91.67338468185346, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1985228877045104 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672486114.476006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672486114.476006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Leondra Reid Kruger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leondra_Kruger), born July 28, 1976, is an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of California and a former Obama administration official.\n\nIt has been [speculated](https://twitter.com/JeffreyToobin/status/1483197268828295170) that President Joe Biden could nominate Kruger to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\n\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur.\n\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court." }, { "id": 9584, "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "short_title": "KBJ Confirmed to SCOTUS before 2023", "url_title": "KBJ Confirmed to SCOTUS before 2023", "slug": "kbj-confirmed-to-scotus-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-26T17:33:55.105460Z", "published_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.914526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-07T18:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-07T18:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 116, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9584, "title": "Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T17:33:55.105460Z", "open_time": 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"[Ketanji Brown Jackson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketanji_Brown_Jackson), born September 14, 1970, is an American attorney and jurist serving as a United States circuit judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021.\n\nIt has been [speculated](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\n\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. \n\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of the court's current term, giving President Biden his first opportunity to nominate a new Justice to the Supreme Court.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Ketanji Brown Jackson is confirmed by the Senate to serve as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States at any time before 00:00 Eastern before January 1, 2023. 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She was a United States district judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia from 2013 to 2021.\n\nIt has been [speculated](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) that President Joe Biden could nominate Jackson to the U.S. Supreme Court should he have the opportunity to select a new justice during the 117th United States Congress.\n\nBiden had [pledged](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/problem-biden-s-pledge-black-woman-justice-n1200826) during the 2020 United States presidential election campaign to appoint a \"black woman\" to the court, should a vacancy occur. \n\nOn January 26th 2022, it was [reported by NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-stephen-breyer-retire-supreme-court-paving-way-biden-appointment-n1288042) and other media organizations that current Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, considered a liberal on the court, is planning to retire at the end of 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9582, "title": "By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T15:30:21.247244Z", "open_time": "2022-01-29T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-30T01:55:25.460328Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-30T01:55:25.460328Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 25 January 2022, US President Joe Biden [said](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis/biden-warns-putin-with-sanctions-as-west-steps-up-ukraine-defenses-idUKKBN2K00GT), \"There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine.\" As of January 24, 2022, [TIME reported](https://time.com/6141675/us-troops-alert-ukraine/) that 200 US troops were in the country, as members of the Florida National Guard are training Ukrainian forces. According to TIME's report:\n\n>Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said up to 8,500 U.S. service members were put on heightened alert for deployment to bolster NATO allies’ eastern defenses should Russia invade. The forces would not be sent to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor take part in any combat roles, Kirby said, but rather serve as reinforcements in places like Poland or Romania to reassure U.S. allies and deter Russian aggression.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if American troops have been moved into Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). 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On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, the US Supreme Court rules in [SFFA v. Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions_v._President_and_Fellows_of_Harvard_College) that the consideration of race in university admissions is no longer permissible. 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On January 24, 2022, the Supreme Court [granted certiorari](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/012422zor_m6io.pdf) to SFFA's suits against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, which have been merged into a single case." }, { "id": 9572, "title": "Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Rules Harvard's Admissions Unlawful", "url_title": "SCOTUS Rules Harvard's Admissions Unlawful", "slug": "scotus-rules-harvards-admissions-unlawful", "author_id": 119072, "author_username": "abricinthewall", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-26T03:33:37.793558Z", "published_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.739565Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9572, "title": "Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-01-26T03:33:37.793558Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Students for Fair Admissions (SFFA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Students_for_Fair_Admissions) is suing Harvard, among other universities, for its race-conscious admissions policies, and has called for the abolition of racial preferences in college admissions. 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John Mitchell and Zeke Hausfather summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/883/).", "resolution_criteria": "***Will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?***\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares John Mitchell the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Zeke Hausfather the winner, then this question resolves negatively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by the Long Now Foundation by January 1, 2040, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe Longbets terms are repeated below:\n\n> John Mitchell will win the bet if the Berkeley Earth Global Average Temperature Anomaly with Sea Ice Temperature Inferred from Air Temperatures dataset reports an annual (January through December) temperature anomaly of over 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period on or before the published value corresponding to the calendar year 2037. Zeke Hausfather will win the bet if an annual temperature anomaly of 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period does not occur before the published calendar year 2037 value. The latest version of the Berkeley Earth global temperature dataset will be used to adjudicate this bet. The temperature anomaly with respect to 1850-1899 will be calculated by subtracting the mean of monthly temperature anomalies over that period (January 1850-December 1899) from the record reported by Berkeley Earth. In the case in which the Berkeley Earth product is discontinued, the Hadley Centre/UEA HadCRUT dataset will be used.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763417102.41282, "end_time": 1764440542.102496, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763417102.41282, "end_time": 1764440542.102496, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.4298069969157674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36353978362488065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.23260372818648983, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36433445652139884, 0.4836050927143443, 0.25633089729369585, 0.22711648459543413, 0.12426951433661654, 0.74258597717262, 0.7355177900008556, 0.0, 0.7444426870682872, 0.0, 1.5206321085182775, 1.0285117634480865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09814509472034882, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8570026340065788, 0.01328166791512114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0707888526643106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819752713399747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3716977847515252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6861512402903018 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289396.347044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289396.347044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8952684837951528, 0.10473151620484723 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [In which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/)\n* [Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/)\n\n----\n\nThis question concerns a longbets.org bet over the global temperature. John Mitchell and Zeke Hausfather summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/883/)." }, { "id": 9568, "title": "Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?", "short_title": "US Agricultural Epidemic / Agroterror by 2040", "url_title": "US Agricultural Epidemic / Agroterror by 2040", "slug": "us-agricultural-epidemic-agroterror-by-2040", "author_id": 118616, "author_username": "samuelraasch", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2022-01-25T18:51:37.012176Z", "published_at": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.044590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 9568, "title": "Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?", "created_at": "2022-01-25T18:51:37.012176Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19_pandemic) is a stark reminder that biological pathogens can cause widespread economic and societal damage if left unchecked. An often neglected aspect of biorisk concerns pathogens and pests that harm crops and livestock. The US agricultural industry produces approximately [$136 billion worth of food yearly](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/), and total agricultural/food services near $1.1 trillion. America enjoys the largest export shares of corn, wheat and soybean markets. By a wide margin, the country donates the most food to aid programs worldwide - [2 million metric tonnes of food](https://www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2017/03/Multiple-Breadbasket-Failures-Pardee-Report.pdf) (in 2012, the last year that the World Food Programme reported this statistic.) Any significant disruptions to the country’s agricultural sector can cost billions of dollars.\n\nLike humans, plants and livestock suffer from all kinds of detrimental viruses, fungus, bacteria and pests. Researchers have attempted to conduct crop loss assessments, with estimations of [20-40% total crop loss](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-018-0793-y.epdf?author_access_token=MyBtUyjP4EETMEPsZHbtRNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N2tyDNBunCIaNaZLkp0l4KlbYfcWYAF-cp8qsu0X0F97c09poYPg6-6oGQDttRhM2ss1tJ3YZuSiUdV_2CKgYgfyCAKhdr9kCQ2qCsOSjlzA%3D%3D) due to pathogens, pests and weeds. Examples of major disease outbreaks include:\n\n* Wheat rusts, a prominent fungal infection, are estimated at $5 billion globally, with losses due to Fusarium head blight estimated at [$3 billion annually](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257788783_Crop_losses_due_to_diseases_and_their_implications_for_global_food_production_losses_and_food_security). \n\n* Soybean rust, a fungal infection, causes several billion dollars in soybean damage a year in Brazil.\n\n* African Swine Fever (ASF) cost China north of [$100 billion in direct/indirect losses](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1) and if it were to make the jump to America, the disease could cost an estimated [$15-50 billion in damages](https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=1300). \n\n* In 2014-2015, 12% of egg-laying chickens in America died of Avian influenza or were culled to curb the disease, [resulting in major losses](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/86282/ldpm-282-02.pdf?v=169).\n\nOn average, economic impacts of a major disease outbreak range from [$2.5-4 billion](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45980/12171_err57_1_.pdf?v=0). These impacts are typically calculated by measuring losses from reduced food yields as well as decreased exports due to trade restrictions levied by other countries.\n\n[Agroterrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agro-terrorism) is another concern. In 2004, former Secretary Tommy Thompson of Health and Human Services famously said: “For the life of me I cannot understand why the terrorists haven’t attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do so.” Nevertheless, there are [barely any instances](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CSDS/books/Agroterror%20book%20final.pdf?ver=VUan7LtQ1Dx2nHW0IQFWIw%3d%3d) of terrorist attacks on farms, feedlots or ranches.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if US crops or livestock suffers >$20 billion in damage ([inflation adjusted to 2021 USD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)) due to an epidemic, pest infestation or agroterrorism attack beginning between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040. For this question, crops and livestock include all plants or animals cultivated for food (for consumption by humans or livestock). Economic losses, which may include direct production losses as well as indirect losses from decreased consumer purchasing or export restrictions, must be determined by USDA ERS or other credible source. Losses may be calculated for any period up to 5 years, but must be attributed to a single event (a single disease, rather than all disease outbreaks which total to $20 billion in damage; or a single agroterror attack, not the sum of several independent attacks)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758608457.629426, "end_time": 1764251829.022912, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758608457.629426, "end_time": 1764251829.022912, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.266583517612028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.198634344500686, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5394303752836036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.3022135829173027, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29998969218982807, 0.36460142404057494, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287529.705782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287529.705782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8620092732392473, 0.13799072676075277 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19_pandemic) is a stark reminder that biological pathogens can cause widespread economic and societal damage if left unchecked. An often neglected aspect of biorisk concerns pathogens and pests that harm crops and livestock. The US agricultural industry produces approximately [$136 billion worth of food yearly](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/), and total agricultural/food services near $1.1 trillion. America enjoys the largest export shares of corn, wheat and soybean markets. By a wide margin, the country donates the most food to aid programs worldwide - [2 million metric tonnes of food](https://www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2017/03/Multiple-Breadbasket-Failures-Pardee-Report.pdf) (in 2012, the last year that the World Food Programme reported this statistic.) Any significant disruptions to the country’s agricultural sector can cost billions of dollars.\n\nLike humans, plants and livestock suffer from all kinds of detrimental viruses, fungus, bacteria and pests. Researchers have attempted to conduct crop loss assessments, with estimations of [20-40% total crop loss](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-018-0793-y.epdf?author_access_token=MyBtUyjP4EETMEPsZHbtRNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N2tyDNBunCIaNaZLkp0l4KlbYfcWYAF-cp8qsu0X0F97c09poYPg6-6oGQDttRhM2ss1tJ3YZuSiUdV_2CKgYgfyCAKhdr9kCQ2qCsOSjlzA%3D%3D) due to pathogens, pests and weeds. Examples of major disease outbreaks include:\n\n* Wheat rusts, a prominent fungal infection, are estimated at $5 billion globally, with losses due to Fusarium head blight estimated at [$3 billion annually](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257788783_Crop_losses_due_to_diseases_and_their_implications_for_global_food_production_losses_and_food_security). \n\n* Soybean rust, a fungal infection, causes several billion dollars in soybean damage a year in Brazil.\n\n* African Swine Fever (ASF) cost China north of [$100 billion in direct/indirect losses](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1) and if it were to make the jump to America, the disease could cost an estimated [$15-50 billion in damages](https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=1300). \n\n* In 2014-2015, 12% of egg-laying chickens in America died of Avian influenza or were culled to curb the disease, [resulting in major losses](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/86282/ldpm-282-02.pdf?v=169).\n\nOn average, economic impacts of a major disease outbreak range from [$2.5-4 billion](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45980/12171_err57_1_.pdf?v=0). These impacts are typically calculated by measuring losses from reduced food yields as well as decreased exports due to trade restrictions levied by other countries.\n\n[Agroterrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agro-terrorism) is another concern. In 2004, former Secretary Tommy Thompson of Health and Human Services famously said: “For the life of me I cannot understand why the terrorists haven’t attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do so.” Nevertheless, there are [barely any instances](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CSDS/books/Agroterror%20book%20final.pdf?ver=VUan7LtQ1Dx2nHW0IQFWIw%3d%3d) of terrorist attacks on farms, feedlots or ranches." }, { "id": 9566, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Troops In Odessa 2022", "url_title": "Russian Troops In Odessa 2022", "slug": "russian-troops-in-odessa-2022", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-25T10:05:49.522741Z", "published_at": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.883466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 40, "status": "resolved", 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9566, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-25T10:05:49.522741Z", "open_time": "2022-01-28T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-29T23:31:38.654241Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-29T23:31:38.654241Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Odessa\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Odessa for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9566, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672525854.89606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672525854.89606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012677084350762542 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 37.34637115263552, 0.5689701637205249, 0.8203647685534659, 0.026088885191508433, 0.1005779612587348, 0.018168320851807973, 0.00778889276566658, 0.03252870775658166, 0.02354121730992902, 0.026114958352440515, 0.038541528832980065, 0.004585012792303693, 0.0002576408554961618, 0.00034303671609347907, 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"start_time": 1672525854.943875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 414, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1860, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\n[Odessa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa) or Odesa, the 3rd largest city in Ukraine, is a strategically-important city on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea, whose port receives [over 70%](https://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/ukraine-ports-eye-larger-share-asia-cargo_20190213.html) of Ukraine's containerized cargo and whose naval base houses the bulk of the Ukrainian Navy. \n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022." }, { "id": 9540, "title": "Will Apple buy Peloton before 2050?", "short_title": "Apple Purchases Peloton by 2050", "url_title": "Apple Purchases Peloton by 2050", "slug": "apple-purchases-peloton-by-2050", "author_id": 116687, "author_username": "isaac.norwich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-22T06:42:56.335072Z", "published_at": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.557152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9540, "title": "Will Apple buy Peloton before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-01-22T06:42:56.335072Z", "open_time": "2022-02-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-24T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-24T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "With the recent announcement of Peloton’s [production](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peloton-stock-is-crashing-on-reports-its-halting-production-of-bikes-and-treadmills-183616826.html) [ramp-down](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html) and subsequent firing of CEO John Foley, questions have been raised about whether the company will survive a decrease in demand for at-home fitness equipment as the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic. Apple, with its large cash reserves and its own Fitness+ brand, would be a prime parent for Peloton.\n\nSources on reasons for Apple to purchase Peloton:\n1. [Why it makes sense for Apple for buy Peloton - Macworld](https://www.macworld.com/article/608948/why-it-makes-sense-apple-buy-peloton.html)\n2. [Investor calls on Peloton to explore sale to Apple - 9to5Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/24/peloton-apple-sale-investor-report/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Peloton is purchased by Apple by January 1, 2050. The completion of a transaction, with Peloton's stock being taken off the publicly traded market, resolves the question affirmatively. If Peloton's stock is no longer public traded, either because they have been bought by another company or cease to exist, then the question resolves negatively. If Peloton is de-listed in order to become a private company or if they remain a publicly traded company, then the question remains open. In case where Peloton is taken private and then major financial news outlets report a sale to Apple, the question resolves positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736665996.030925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.179 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736665996.030925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.179 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1635460977317917 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 1.7197018749430009, 0.18799899335223477, 0.0, 1.7969945663548097, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.47155210776607737, 0.07140076303461346, 1.4982674401982188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.03282480256284937, 1.1362226126873838, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.13529521674717054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.6062666629314708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609704774759386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288303.082387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288303.082387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9448001662999304, 0.055199833700069666 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "With the recent announcement of Peloton’s [production](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peloton-stock-is-crashing-on-reports-its-halting-production-of-bikes-and-treadmills-183616826.html) [ramp-down](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html) and subsequent firing of CEO John Foley, questions have been raised about whether the company will survive a decrease in demand for at-home fitness equipment as the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic. Apple, with its large cash reserves and its own Fitness+ brand, would be a prime parent for Peloton.\n\nSources on reasons for Apple to purchase Peloton:\n1. [Why it makes sense for Apple for buy Peloton - Macworld](https://www.macworld.com/article/608948/why-it-makes-sense-apple-buy-peloton.html)\n2. [Investor calls on Peloton to explore sale to Apple - 9to5Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/24/peloton-apple-sale-investor-report/)" }, { "id": 9539, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Kharkiv in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Kharkiv in 2022", "slug": "russian-troops-in-kharkiv-in-2022", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-22T02:26:43.583820Z", "published_at": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.176092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T15:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-31T15:41:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 280, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9539, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-22T02:26:43.583820Z", "open_time": "2022-01-22T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-23T00:48:04.397032Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-23T00:48:04.397032Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-31T15:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-31T15:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T15:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine Before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Kharkiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kharkiv for any length of time without the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on the city still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653999393.373432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653999393.373432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8161827985647339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2883538382629124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.45136867035549e-07, 4.128206493398773e-06, 6.411616376424976e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15926176890738403, 1.3158661653149584e-06, 5.211514684833226e-07, 0.0, 1.3322349580992264e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5439586877284974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42302941187435555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.148270863941579e-07, 0.27022812477308394, 7.472255951123631e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9922261415930795e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001120348060031836, 0.0, 0.18828421694360709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.850316689035274e-07, 0.6150705217341671, 1.295287158690114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6955208794400657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4409685488148245e-05, 1.3971487567259793, 1.5140717765851945e-07, 0.0013552245075750436, 0.0, 0.8540825532972902, 1.4956193365623598, 0.3609896659876634, 0.31760592241328556, 0.0, 5.82608123081552e-05, 0.5965270935254516, 3.0410944572958268e-06, 7.543867091559556e-05, 0.0, 0.6541147446428401, 2.370282183049662, 0.0, 0.9639068097820136, 0.0, 0.00018796501857560628, 0.9207913065374719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3279691203284055, 9.261174380601153e-05, 3.2840831068939123, 1.5592895056798786, 1.5867490258768586, 0.0, 0.5708611585827243, 3.7205555317236785, 1.5530246397597813, 0.49702646127421707, 0.23698922757436253, 4.15951461527807 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653999393.421544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653999393.421544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 279, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22183412975731542, 0.7781658702426846 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 786, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n----\n\n[Kharkiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv) is a strategically-important city with its city limits located only about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Russian border. [According to Al-Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/20/fears-of-russian-invasion-trouble-ukraines-silicon-valley), in the event of an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv could be the first city to be attacked. \n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html) Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022." }, { "id": 9535, "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "USA leads in embryo selection for IQ", "url_title": "USA leads in embryo selection for IQ", "slug": "usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-21T19:35:07.832270Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T22:10:00.293471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9535, "title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-21T19:35:07.832270Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/) and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762207789.380175, "end_time": 1765852562.311892, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762207789.380175, "end_time": 1765852562.311892, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05875024877445308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4179609586114346, 0.45529495594735647, 0.21279174578088644, 0.7481937516021493, 4.458068808810312, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.624186232367012, 0.0, 0.2602758877180714, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287723.796765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287723.796765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9888503749372184, 0.01114962506278158 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/) and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress." }, { "id": 9534, "title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "USA first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "USA first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-21T19:32:21.260836Z", "published_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:26:55.445921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9534, "title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-21T19:32:21.260836Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/) and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9534, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761074268.18983, "end_time": 1765341561.819929, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761074268.18983, "end_time": 1765341561.819929, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3794399181466243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048426974058352196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 1.0862193525000428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 1.6354535703872062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.21280406394966284, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.923295871572909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5026756856843709, 0.4334584744620199, 0.5308639099448593, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46981341930169174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9143739216770954, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5686486454294937, 0.6314291096406244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7398178167039574, 0.015241095655114558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289631.437131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289631.437131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.723217071287718, 0.276782928712282 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/) and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress." }, { "id": 9533, "title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "China first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "China first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "china-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-21T18:49:31.963131Z", "published_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:07:36.262839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9533, "title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-21T18:49:31.963131Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9533, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762031245.657072, "end_time": 1764589312.876665, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762031245.657072, "end_time": 1764589312.876665, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6038656841989183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12971585974003152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5650756492047375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6107590623541784, 0.26969150866663705, 0.0, 0.055089962873426206, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364, 0.0, 2.138731004475951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4248906339128053, 0.7515382238740759, 0.11076491650622633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7148519640884468, 0.3193625093223559, 0.29365530089148495, 0.7514325496251095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.52908687767572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09579000750583701, 0.5841218085080707, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.043221015654296396, 0.0, 1.1143345550243935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14294776347577356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21668089625250422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9835165055467062 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289290.640412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289290.640412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5097176336721395, 0.4902823663278605 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence." }, { "id": 9532, "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "China leads in embryo selection for IQ", "url_title": "China leads in embryo selection for IQ", "slug": "china-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-21T18:49:30.209171Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:51:14.461437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9532, "title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-21T18:49:30.209171Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9532, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763093647.706373, "end_time": 1764088278.517626, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763093647.706373, "end_time": 1764088278.517626, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.17941697449088104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17652900265006702, 0.026430157778456278, 0.10286368260463565, 0.0, 0.7566684220027733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.055928862269566, 0.794434019298327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8491759241628085, 0.722189315515367, 1.0702886340751767, 0.970291085935858, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 1.2695459178281538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1371211768199028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1304378591576308, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.06327492015001017, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287972.840197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287972.840197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.927040764537582, 0.07295923546241798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 253, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence." }, { "id": 9525, "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "Singapore first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "Singapore first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "singapore-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-20T19:53:43.235463Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:52:55.255262Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9525, "title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-20T19:53:43.235463Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763369565.085768, "end_time": 1764757249.370098, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.661 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763369565.085768, "end_time": 1764757249.370098, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.661 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.7057374651791137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5331326249393444, 0.6414130977087752, 0.0, 0.8287108151433491, 0.0, 1.472318959025111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.975198550116599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2633194438431117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287348.747407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287348.747407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3610232834685446, 0.6389767165314554 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)" }, { "id": 9524, "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "Israel first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "url_title": "Israel first 10 to embryo select for IQ", "slug": "israel-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-20T19:52:04.457058Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T06:51:34.801915Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9524, "title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-20T19:52:04.457058Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763707883.770934, "end_time": 1764024055.532315, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763707883.770934, "end_time": 1764024055.532315, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7935102793085457 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19044414436503487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12976308100754524, 0.5376037185099556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5356850574533176, 0.2050974017457311, 0.0, 0.15169860826427847, 0.0, 0.5732974486106766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5038611638190824, 0.0, 0.07921034496113237, 0.03450675195196218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3373985602531765, 0.09187310494396712, 0.6771227276030302, 0.6509344506122218, 0.885398373878453, 1.0126943246247295, 0.8954475274558897, 0.0059698979818694235, 0.4707412326553571, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 1.6301642765835895, 1.1721706458479322, 0.0, 0.08200762853187625, 0.9417867572078573, 0.9361897710694017, 0.046309343431231456, 0.02076682101153799, 0.7216014618291391, 0.0, 0.9307572991624216, 0.0, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0098042150506422, 0.7332586472102954 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287814.42421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287814.42421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21660346459385382, 0.7833965354061462 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 328, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003." }, { "id": 9523, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", "short_title": "Peloton Bankruptcy before 2023", "url_title": "Peloton Bankruptcy before 2023", "slug": "peloton-bankruptcy-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-20T18:06:43.575188Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.648967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9523, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-20T18:06:43.575188Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_(exercise_equipment_company)) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\n\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business (as judged by moderators) as of January 2022, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672441149.348991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672441149.348991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015468919879438046 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 18.4407873946071, 0.8940376280552768, 0.055390961256721424, 0.07411863812031651, 0.21594241281026044, 0.0028351151108641772, 0.07732696669913133, 0.0, 0.012775453800309842, 0.11831807484367499, 0.0, 0.19720710017896037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030988247516335545, 0.01614116994432738, 0.045118521580036694, 0.017369186833703205, 0.011150519205412561, 0.010380340988836348, 0.030424300615435034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03714452074368754, 0.014638681727023942, 0.0, 0.0, 7.526475812797094e-05, 0.0, 0.012818560449601505, 0.0, 0.002454744419980374, 0.02655327397452638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003675276093553673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004791327568396407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.5685101637121335, "coverage": 0.9995731638656262, "baseline_score": 83.2900464226015, "spot_peer_score": 9.48350534862152, "peer_archived_score": 4.5685101637121335, "baseline_archived_score": 83.2900464226015, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.48350534862152 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672441149.373101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672441149.373101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 329, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloton_(exercise_equipment_company)) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\nIn January 2021, Peloton reached a [peak market capitalization of nearly $50 billion.](https://ycharts.com/companies/PTON/market_cap)\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined by more than 84%, and it has been [dropped from the Nasdaq-100](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peloton-stock-price-decline-kicked-out-nasdaq-100-index-2022-1). In January 2022, it was reported that the company [is working with consulting firm McKinsey & Co to review its cost structure and may cut some jobs.](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/peloton-reviews-cost-structure-with-mckinsey-may-cut-jobs-cnbc-2022-01-18/)\n\nFurther, on January 20, 2022, it was reported that Peloton is temporarily halting production of its connected fitness products as consumer demand wanes and the company looks to control costs, according to internal documents [obtained by CNBC.](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html)" }, { "id": 9522, "title": "Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", "short_title": "Russia Invades Belarus by 2023", "url_title": "Russia Invades Belarus by 2023", "slug": "russia-invades-belarus-by-2023", "author_id": 111971, "author_username": "jonathanjouty", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-20T11:32:21.673871Z", "published_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.877201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:21:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 200, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9522, "title": "Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", "created_at": "2022-01-20T11:32:21.673871Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T15:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T15:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/) [closed]\n\n----\n\n[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire.\n\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\n\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\n\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's [Democracy Index rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#By_country) is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/belarus/freedom-net/2021), and as \"moderately free\" in the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2021/countries/2021_IndexofEconomicFreedom-Belarus.pdf).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any _two_ Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485283.424947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485283.424947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013395972126283583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 25.406113485696856, 0.6671323202840348, 0.2028105610662546, 0.08600810853029724, 0.04203627382102648, 0.0047224107783940625, 0.08137280694195159, 0.01526691803201483, 0.0, 0.048879888231975734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016515066582188546, 0.0, 0.00018783514199747944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.0, 0.015473781679865704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14677482300589065, 0.0, 0.0002939821457452259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01210283199441459, 0.0, 0.005845193240806502, 0.0032429987350346416, 0.0, 7.85543462410812e-05, 0.0, 1.988567701482427e-05, 0.0, 0.008554446231847096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001888851761924809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000791060882817282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019368706224405105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002588225296461075 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.243487721918198, "coverage": 0.9988395816308235, "baseline_score": 91.02426690615083, "spot_peer_score": 1.9567516227763035, "peer_archived_score": 8.243487721918198, "baseline_archived_score": 91.02426690615083, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9567516227763035 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485283.452098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485283.452098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 457, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/) [closed]\n\n----\n\n[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire.\n\nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\n\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\n\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's [Democracy Index rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index#By_country) is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/belarus/freedom-net/2021), and as \"moderately free\" in the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2021/countries/2021_IndexofEconomicFreedom-Belarus.pdf)." }, { "id": 9517, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Mariupol in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Mariupol in 2022", "slug": "russian-troops-in-mariupol-in-2022", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-19T20:43:54.190594Z", "published_at": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.273400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-14T10:18:29.851000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-16T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T10:18:29.851000Z", "open_time": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 263, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9517, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-19T20:43:54.190594Z", "open_time": "2022-01-25T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-27T04:16:05.467747Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-27T04:16:05.467747Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-14T10:18:29.851000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-14T10:18:29.851000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-14T10:18:29.851000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n\n- Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n\n- the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n\n- Russian logistical capabilities.\n\n[Mariupol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol) is a strategically-important city [close to the frontlines](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51543463) in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have [launched several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#The_war_in_Donbass) on the city.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively upon Russian troops having entered Mariupol, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). For purposes of this question, \"entering Mariupol\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Mariupol for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Mariupol still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647252467.707242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647252467.707242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9761754985305057 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.592024819719689e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.354540805314434e-06, 0.0, 2.461623054729283e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014071056442929608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8189070845815708e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 8.473036018926035e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.724879391194654e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.11855267435863e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6663936725096254, 0.0, 7.927769898762699e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004331990362003762, 0.0, 0.25035439973228385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0848408843625165e-06, 9.861631067103396e-06, 0.004726859506876437, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6333132065548335e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2148616600997069e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0790149118303785e-06, 0.27045771884437214, 0.06075737073025688, 0.0, 0.0699593014089219, 0.0014708496890859881, 1.020633426037912, 0.12791900797934236, 1.2707791867709877, 1.0340068887023106, 26.159015066609445 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.998729744967503, "coverage": 0.2785799441958079, "baseline_score": 8.932158343088556, "spot_peer_score": 16.84815763306097, "peer_archived_score": 4.998729744967503, "baseline_archived_score": 8.932158343088556, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.84815763306097 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647252467.742268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647252467.742268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 263, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.016894599265973143, 0.9831054007340269 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 698, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kiev, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-enter-kiev/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n\n- Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n\n- the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n\n- Russian logistical capabilities.\n\n[Mariupol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol) is a strategically-important city [close to the frontlines](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51543463) in Donetsk Oblast and was captured by pro-Russian forces in May 2014 and recaptured by the Ukrainians the following month. Since then pro-Russian forces have [launched several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#The_war_in_Donbass) on the city." } ] }
