Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4420
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4400", "results": [ { "id": 9513, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson Charged With a Crime by 2023", "url_title": "Boris Johnson Charged With a Crime by 2023", "slug": "boris-johnson-charged-with-a-crime-by-2023", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-19T17:14:33.698712Z", "published_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.549638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9513, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-19T17:14:33.698712Z", "open_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-03T02:25:53.953090Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-03T02:25:53.953090Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \n\nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\n\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is formally charged with any criminal offence on or before 31st December 2022 (UK time). Note that he doesn't need to be convicted of an offence, only charged. If he is arrested but not charged, this question resolves negatively. \n\nFor purposes of this question, being formally found in contempt of parliament does not constitute being charged with a crime. \n\nThis question will resolve positively based on an announcement by any UK police force or the Crown Prosecution Service or any other competent authority that Boris Johnson has been formally charged with any criminal offence. It will also resolve positively if there are widespread reports in credible media that Johnson has been charged with an offence.", "fine_print": "If Johnson is charged on or before 31st Dec 2022 but the announcement is not made until 2023, the question still resolves positively. I have delayed the resolve date to 8th Jan 2023 to account for this possibility.", "post_id": 9513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485261.285399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485261.285399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013035561313100434 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.229526895742758, 0.253939313533697, 0.10483587832961028, 0.01161693045818606, 0.1014783751063045, 0.0396858308859751, 0.04541587534245149, 0.0, 0.0045715845693790344, 0.018077330242734967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021522465630343358, 0.0006773620771983868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04119840155833965, 0.0, 0.0012299946016854876, 0.0, 0.06413312070665313, 0.06885678349563785, 0.00867947405568277, 0.0009832148722041306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003305530037031849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005471834881316766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.911063448892277, "coverage": 0.9996121534079184, "baseline_score": 86.41854713588994, "spot_peer_score": 9.929228356303401, "peer_archived_score": 8.911063448892277, "baseline_archived_score": 86.41854713588994, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.929228356303401 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485261.31019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485261.31019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 257, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been accused of allowing and attending parties at 10 Downing Street which went against the rules enacted under the Coronavirus Act. He is also alleged to have lied to Parliament about this and other matters. \n\nSeparately, there is an [ongoing](https://goodlawproject.org/case/100m-contract/) [scandal](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59968037) regarding government awards of PPE contracts for hundreds of millions of pounds to unqualified persons who were close to the Conservative party. It is possible that offences including misconduct in public office or Bribery Act violations have been committed during this period.\n\nThere have been a number of additional events which have called Johnson's integrity into question, including the [allegation](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56878663) that he concealed evidence from the person investigating who paid for his flat refurbishment. It is possible that he will be charged with a criminal offence over this or other matters." }, { "id": 9510, "title": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "short_title": "EA Global London 2022 Rescheduled", "url_title": "EA Global London 2022 Rescheduled", "slug": "ea-global-london-2022-rescheduled", "author_id": 107642, "author_username": "olliebase22", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-19T15:17:06.825976Z", "published_at": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.611325Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-25T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-25T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-15T23:31:20.337000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-15T23:31:20.337000Z", "open_time": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9510, "title": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "created_at": "2022-01-19T15:17:06.825976Z", "open_time": "2022-01-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-24T22:12:20.668226Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-24T22:12:20.668226Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-04-15T23:31:20.337000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-04-15T23:31:20.337000Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-04-15T23:31:20.337000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-25T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-25T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2022/) is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves negatively if EA Global London 2022 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London, UK) at the scheduled dates (15 - 17 April 2022).\n\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\n\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.", "fine_print": "Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\n\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event.", "post_id": 9510, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648215591.903883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648215591.903883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03515535120530143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.214442668862004, 1.790448331043531, 1.4879520520915457, 0.045652819093656635, 0.02498429920706033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.588577011528645, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4247058044294796, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010028489695676875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.927526242184184, "coverage": 0.9911391697646523, "baseline_score": 90.30391831675375, "spot_peer_score": 2.775187974180147, "peer_archived_score": 6.927526242184184, "baseline_archived_score": 90.30391831675375, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.775187974180147 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648215591.938399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648215591.938399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/ea-global-london-2022/) is currently scheduled for 15 - 17 April 2022 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK." }, { "id": 9492, "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "Israel leads in embryo selection for IQ", "url_title": "Israel leads in embryo selection for IQ", "slug": "israel-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-18T20:05:56.831203Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:29:11.578958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9492, "title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-18T20:05:56.831203Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763386436.503815, "end_time": 1764024072.24123, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763386436.503815, "end_time": 1764024072.24123, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35620247170781144 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32232695029833724, 0.0, 0.6658462590438861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.741751404311604, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.06627670137989172, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5961610293724522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22342477584227832, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0232534473271202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290201.419631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290201.419631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6943501596732482, 0.30564984032675185 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003." }, { "id": 9491, "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "Singapore leads in embryo selection for IQ", "url_title": "Singapore leads in embryo selection for IQ", "slug": "singapore-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-18T20:05:53.732886Z", "published_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.091268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9491, "title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2022-01-18T20:05:53.732886Z", "open_time": "2022-01-26T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-28T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742037803.588645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742037803.588645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26115189294696295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.7429155235659053, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.24857163706044477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 1.1638519814167685, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.05181454149830181, 0.28348981325350703, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 1.3238032574930696, 0.0, 0.11896969463130472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289330.799504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289330.799504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.873159512218907, 0.12684048778109305 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)" }, { "id": 9488, "title": "Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Oldest Flowering Plant die by 2027?", "url_title": "Will the Oldest Flowering Plant die by 2027?", "slug": "will-the-oldest-flowering-plant-die-by-2027", "author_id": 119215, "author_username": "rappatoni", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-18T14:45:04.839933Z", "published_at": "2022-06-27T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T13:25:07.169829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-06-27T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-06-27T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9488, "title": "Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?", "created_at": "2022-01-18T14:45:04.839933Z", "open_time": "2022-06-27T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-06-29T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-06-29T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Flowering plants (angiospermiae) are the clade of plants that produce flowers for reproduction. The longest-living known flowering plants are the baobabs ([Adansonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adansonia)) The oldest baobabs consist of multiple stems with different ages. [Five of the six oldest known baobabs have at least partially collapsed in recent years](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0170-5). The oldest remaining tree is the [Humani Bedford Old Baobab](http://chem.ubbcluj.ro/~studiachemia/issues/chemia2019_2T2/35_Patrut_etal_411_419.pdf) in the Savé valley in Zimbabwe. It is estimated to be 1800 years old.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the death of the Humani Bedford old Baobab on a date before January 1, 2027 is reported on the website of the [Savé Valley Conservancy](https://savevalleyconservancy.org/), in a credible media source or a scientific paper before June 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question \"die\" means that [\"at least the largest and/or oldest parts/stems\"](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0170-5) of the tree topple and die.", "post_id": 9488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763645096.828916, "end_time": 1768882863.448089, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763645096.828916, "end_time": 1768882863.448089, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5467613181485985 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287147.155923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287147.155923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7733687014089203, 0.22663129859107972 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Flowering plants (angiospermiae) are the clade of plants that produce flowers for reproduction. The longest-living known flowering plants are the baobabs ([Adansonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adansonia)) The oldest baobabs consist of multiple stems with different ages. [Five of the six oldest known baobabs have at least partially collapsed in recent years](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0170-5). The oldest remaining tree is the [Humani Bedford Old Baobab](http://chem.ubbcluj.ro/~studiachemia/issues/chemia2019_2T2/35_Patrut_etal_411_419.pdf) in the Savé valley in Zimbabwe. It is estimated to be 1800 years old." }, { "id": 9487, "title": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", "short_title": "Omicron Generation Interval", "url_title": "Omicron Generation Interval", "slug": "omicron-generation-interval", "author_id": 121225, "author_username": "seabbs", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-18T10:31:44.723032Z", "published_at": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.670377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-12T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-12T14:52:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9487, "title": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", "created_at": "2022-01-18T10:31:44.723032Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T22:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-03T22:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-03T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-12T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-12T14:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-12T14:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T10:21:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.\n\nIf two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.\n\n[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)) Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)) and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).\n\nThere are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19.", "resolution_criteria": "Will 3, or more, of the 5 most cited studies (available on the 1st of January 2023 that refer to the generation time/interval of Omicron in the title as returned by a Google Scholar search for generation, time or interval, and Omicron) which estimate the generation interval or a transmission distribution proxy (such as the serial interval, or the test-to-test distribution) conclude (if no conclusion is made a study will be discarded and the next most cited study included) that the mean intrinsic (or realised if not distinguished) generation interval of Omicron is shorter than that of Delta? If fewer than 5 studies are found then the majority conclusion from these studies will be used.", "fine_print": "Question composed by Nikos Bosse, Sam Abbott, and Sebastion Funk", "post_id": 9487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672555389.309412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672555389.309412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8170267276862851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.01936509307245438, 0.21588515018775098, 1.3006574544840774, 0.24252435498855562, 0.0, 0.2867091947551265, 0.8176137788112516, 0.09501865743952613, 0.6372676589580504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6195470556045188, 0.8385305120858686, 0.3968792496239742, 0.8749085186757798, 0.5384518952094881, 0.947732832826155, 0.23059971548004934, 2.1566701013878515, 0.431007191772122, 0.08622329263095156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16623198997393174, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.06367247509170942, 1.0253025249188727, 0.03899940633331225, 0.4939417712818782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.735197538987137 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.8363860349262096, "coverage": 0.9997484217272411, "baseline_score": 63.10226509415724, "spot_peer_score": 2.677127525747769, "peer_archived_score": 6.8363860349262096, "baseline_archived_score": 63.10226509415724, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.677127525747769 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672559318.579269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672559318.579269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23391233775799303, 0.766087662242007 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The generation interval is the time taken from the moment a person gets infected to the moment they infect a second person. On a population level, and as each individual typically transmits to multiple people, this forms a distribution. Along with the effective reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections from a single infected person), the generation interval distribution can be used to estimate the rate of transmission, forecast future infections, estimate the effectiveness of control measures, and potentially estimate the timing of an outbreak's peak and its final size.\n\nIf two infectious diseases have the same reproduction number but one has a shorter generation interval then case numbers for that disease will rise and fall more quickly than for a disease with longer generation intervals. Similarly, if it is wrongly assumed that two diseases have the same generation interval when one is actually shorter then estimates of the reproduction number will be biased upwards. This may result in poor quality forecasts and impact the policy interventions implemented.\n\n[Estimation of the generation interval is complex](https://twitter.com/sbfnk/status/1478468932155723779) as both it and the effective reproduction number may change over time, across locations, and within subpopulations. We can think of the generation interval as being composed of both an individual's infectiousness over time and their contacts with others. Both of these are likely to differ due to demographic factors (such as age) with an [individual's infectiousness](https://github.com/VirologyCharite/SARS-CoV-2-VL-paper) likely also being altered by the effectiveness of their immune system and characteristics of the disease itself. The number, and type, of contacts for infected individuals, are also likely to vary over time and this can be impacted by mitigation efforts leading to reductions in the estimated generation interval ([such as contact tracing](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.17.21266051v1)) Finally, realised generation intervals may be dependent on the transmissibility of a disease with more transmissible diseases more rapidly depleting their local networks ([such as households](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265216v1)) and local (or global) high prevalence leading to an observed [reduction due to competition effects between infectors](https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024v3).\n\nThere are several transmission distributions that are related to the generation time including the serial interval (which is the time between the onset of symptoms for an infector and an infectee) , and the test-to-test distribution (which similarly is the interval between the case report of an infector and an infectee). These distributions may be used as a [proxy for the generation time](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2020.0756) due to the difficulty in estimating the generation time. However, both of these measures are subject to a range of additional biases especially for pathogens that can transmit before the onset of symptoms, such as COVID-19." }, { "id": 9471, "title": "Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?", "short_title": "Redondo Beach Chooses STAR Voting in 2023", "url_title": "Redondo Beach Chooses STAR Voting in 2023", "slug": "redondo-beach-chooses-star-voting-in-2023", "author_id": 121038, "author_username": "approval-voting-advocat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-16T18:45:51.105418Z", "published_at": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.018989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-03T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-16T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-16T17:57:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9471, "title": "Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-16T18:45:51.105418Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-16T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-16T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-16T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-03T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Score-Then-Automatic-Runoff voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) (STAR voting) is a proposed voting system for selecting a single winner among multiple candidates. There have been [some campaigns](https://www.starvoting.us/campaigns) to adopt STAR voting in the US, but as of January 2022, it is not used for political elections anywhere in the world.\n\nAccording to a [January 2022 article by the Daily Breeze](https://www.dailybreeze.com/2022/01/12/redondo-beachs-voting-method-may-change-after-2023/), Rodondo Beach may be the first city to adopt this method:\n\n>The City Council this week took the first step toward implementing one of two similar-but-distinct voting systems, ranked-choice-voting or score-then-automatic-runoff, also known as STAR voting.\n\n>[...] As of now, residents will vote for either of the new methods during Redondo’s March 2023 general city election, the council decided Tuesday.\n\nThe currently drafted resolution also asks voters for their preference for a [ranked-choice voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting), or to remain with their [current voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if [STAR voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) is chosen as [Redondo Beach's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redondo_Beach,_California) next voting system in the March 2023 general election, according to Redondo Beach's [City Clerc's Office](https://www.redondo.org/depts/city_clerk/election_info/election_results.asp). In the case that STAR voting is not an option in Redondo Beach's March 2023 election, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a STAR voting system is one that uses the general method outlined by the [STAR voting project](https://www.starvoting.us/star), regardless of the specific score used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9471, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677878906.752247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677878906.752247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4546461643467436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1495997362599704, 0.0, 0.5607071639887531, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 2.9901591546312702, 0.08633762966036206, 1.381590913449742, 0.7076450515259304, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8010686298103828, "coverage": 0.9986405909985527, "baseline_score": 14.400502639790789, "spot_peer_score": -0.40983836020890585, "peer_archived_score": 0.8010686298103828, "baseline_archived_score": 14.400502639790789, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.40983836020890585 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677878906.767208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677878906.767208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6860988654910394, 0.31390113450896057 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Score-Then-Automatic-Runoff voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STAR_voting) (STAR voting) is a proposed voting system for selecting a single winner among multiple candidates. 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In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, between January 1st, 2022 and February 1st, 2022, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from January 1, 2022 and February 1st, 2022. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or *de facto*) by Russia as of January 1st, 2022, will not trigger resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9462, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643138483.305607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643138483.305607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10444931058932758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4880816797807819, 1.9341577168445936, 1.6797962779671134, 0.6347920598124954, 3.327096516081416, 2.3277232797641125, 0.9273071082867808, 1.0726368608847392, 1.195242778388856, 2.675427902812631, 2.0552216747104572, 1.0987835400633683, 0.26837433275532113, 0.20619876984724544, 1.5831306447381093, 0.0005547394827604275, 1.3449068831661306, 0.44253187099423885, 0.9298589033964273, 0.4497234911325192, 2.9052879959380435, 0.32327508763454904, 0.23641990167073562, 3.837431464572717e-05, 0.03344607505062061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012950334084013852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019496988066834418, 0.005030167413756341, 0.0002609475793073014, 0.00012604341645411924, 0.08546700929154748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004973462592290393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05206507968690393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05558623147334628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002803378866002782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0677128371455423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.563835481684716e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.1860811627042, "coverage": 0.9995015520424869, "baseline_score": 75.96969947381982, "spot_peer_score": 62.50420877206763, "peer_archived_score": 9.1860811627042, "baseline_archived_score": 75.96969947381982, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.50420877206763 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643138483.345583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643138483.345583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 239, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9536027416248656, 0.046397258375134365 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 676, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions." }, { "id": 9459, "title": "Will Russian troops enter Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Kyiv in 2022", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Kyiv in 2022", "slug": "russian-troops-in-kyiv-in-2022", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-14T17:49:32.159230Z", "published_at": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.596367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 157, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-05-31T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n\n- Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n\n- the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n\n- Russian logistical capabilities.\n\nWith [Kyiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russian troops have entered Kyiv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022, according to credible media reports. For the purposes of this question, \"entering Kyiv\" requires at least 100 Russian troops, wearing Russian insignia and under the Russian banner, entering the city limits of Kyiv for any length of time against the consent of the Ukranian government. A repelled attack on Kyiv still would count, provided it could be ascertained to a high degree of confidence that at least 100 Russian troops were within city limits", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653988089.040842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 760, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653988089.040842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 760, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25293355146988156 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.618754304351272, 0.8336266581714142, 0.9800909875742587, 1.242215909228205e-08, 1.3834412172365533, 0.11989042781622655, 0.07980816756257281, 0.0002533363655649986, 0.03927970196445694, 2.7489460073616914, 0.1503475981448447, 0.9926707983513026, 0.04263898630623636, 0.5674686458425049, 1.8607497567558138, 0.07141905435702947, 0.0659246980398511, 0.7679780360505023, 0.02868538956682429, 4.854037575708964, 1.3515589864065995, 1.2706061181910058, 1.4791835305983962, 1.4649468445701836, 2.4755102798127693, 1.0000000001745033, 2.4174874086529106, 2.907822646555072, 0.0, 1.472708023850999, 0.19020238177198381, 1.572938559624598, 0.8094906802827364, 0.050491010240062084, 1.9779685154446245, 0.3219985830003191, 1.5275016689205985, 1.4781973890128903, 0.49209114089141154, 1.9596296266520894, 0.7732141165655881, 0.06286895684513297, 0.2889672272647376, 0.23250078402517993, 0.6363980933483588, 0.28977428259288107, 0.0017092468455290385, 0.22943841714144603, 0.8125237928071078, 2.097383620723982, 0.012560749379198906, 0.1275691436784667, 0.23623150052662026, 0.0, 0.3356478792042766, 0.06607413193515539, 0.024010446654159905, 0.0, 0.4832057624463812, 0.054301324229732495, 0.0008675712243656932, 0.0010282091918813734, 0.0005431920139120346, 0.028216264377781006, 0.0002631260246701568, 0.00038188849090833545, 4.045555053843776e-05, 0.0007607669011318705, 0.0, 0.21404477033658237, 0.0001579535142311328, 0.020595988821973436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039158636922154285, 0.021035194364689307, 0.0001951387110156657, 0.0, 3.4506950938483706e-07, 0.015312779577169013, 0.0, 6.980494406770333e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043006245841424747, 1.424967538483713e-06, 0.0, 2.523740923473269e-06, 1.007232393332703e-05, 0.00045328209451546983, 4.246508888428809e-06, 4.631603630045947e-06, 0.00019256335239770675, 0.00012601956097839362, 0.0004435964706721026, 8.131272427641372e-05, 4.7203095120376665e-05, 7.152770303008762e-05, 0.14127841203289046 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1653988089.117114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 760, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1653988089.117114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 760, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8553956943869873, 0.14460430561301277 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 70, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2695, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9566/russian-troops-in-odessa-2022/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9517/russian-troops-enter-mariupol/)\n\n* [Will Russian troops enter Kharkiv, Ukraine by 31 December 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9539/russian-troops-enter-kharkiv/)\n\n----\n\nAccording to [CNN and the Ukranian Defense Ministry](https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), Russia has at least 127,000 troops massed outside of Ukraine as of January 19, 2022. If Russia does in fact invade, there are questions of\n\n- Russian objectives (how limited or extreme the incursion into Ukraine would be)\n\n- the stiffness of the Ukrainian opposition\n\n- Russian logistical capabilities.\n\nWith [Kyiv](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv) being both the capital of Ukraine and approximately 380 km (240 miles) from the Russian border, reaching the city with ground forces might represent one of the more extreme outcomes in the range of possibilities." }, { "id": 9458, "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", "short_title": "Eliciting Latent Knowledge $50k Prize Awarded", "url_title": "Eliciting Latent Knowledge $50k Prize Awarded", "slug": "eliciting-latent-knowledge-50k-prize-awarded", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-14T16:39:31.700904Z", "published_at": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.619189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-09T05:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-09T05:04:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9458, "title": "Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?", "created_at": "2022-01-14T16:39:31.700904Z", "open_time": "2022-01-16T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-18T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-18T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-09T05:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-09T05:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-09T05:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-30T16:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/) posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\n\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\n\n>Roughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \n>\n>ELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\n\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [_Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you_](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\n\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\n\n>To win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\n>\n>We’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\n\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\n\n>We’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if one or more $50,000 prizes are awarded before June 1, 2022, as a result of submissions to the eliciting latent knowledge proposal contest. The prize must be for work or a submission directly relating to the eliciting latent knowledge research and the [relevant LessWrong post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). Later contests covering similar AI topics would not count. If for some reason the prize is more than $50,000, but is described by ARC as being intended for the $50,000 category described in the question background, that would satisfy this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643549218.831123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643549218.831123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3007243431653954 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.7939251711432076, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 1.7972813201934048, 0.46890301972848125, 0.25875006715553206, 1.0, 0.28605414922715733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.2095600930171395, "coverage": 0.9661027874765835, "baseline_score": 40.99384771502164, "spot_peer_score": 12.057995032241662, "peer_archived_score": 2.2095600930171395, "baseline_archived_score": 40.99384771502164, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.057995032241662 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643549218.854083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643549218.854083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8065833338325086, 0.19341666616749148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 3, 2022, [Paul Christiano](https://paulfchristiano.com/), of the [Alignment Research Center (ARC)](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/) posted on LessWrong offering [prizes for proposals about eliciting latent knowledge (ELK)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals).\n\nThe post describes eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) and the proposals being sought as follows:\n\n>Roughly speaking, the goal of ELK is to incentivize ML models to honestly answer “straightforward” questions where the right answer is unambiguous and known by the model. \n>\n>ELK is currently unsolved in the worst case—for every training strategy we’ve thought of so far, we can describe a case where an ML model trained with that strategy would give unambiguously bad answers to straightforward questions despite knowing better. Situations like this may or may not come up in practice, but nonetheless we are interested in finding a strategy for ELK for which we can’t think of any counterexample.\n\nELK and the existing counterexamples are described in more detail in ARC's December 2021 report [_Eliciting latent knowledge: How to tell if your eyes deceive you_](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_Yh-Ch2XRL8H_EpsnjrC1dwZXR37PC8/edit#heading=h.kkaua0hwmp1d).\n\nHere is how the post describes prize awards:\n\n>To win a prize, you need to specify a training strategy for ELK that handles all of the counterexamples that we’ve described so far, summarized in the section below—i.e. where the breaker would need to specify something new about the test case to cause the strategy to break down. You don’t need to fully solve the problem in the worst case to win a prize, you just need to come up with a strategy that requires a new counterexample.\n>\n>We’ll give a $5,000 prize to any proposal that we think clears this bar. We’ll give a $50,000 prize to a proposal which we haven’t considered and seems sufficiently promising to us or requires a new idea to break. We’ll give intermediate prizes for ideas that we think are promising but we’ve already considered, as well as for proposals that come with novel counterexamples, clarify some other aspect of the problem, or are interesting in other ways. A major purpose of the contest is to provide support for people understanding the problem well enough to start contributing; we aren’t trying to only reward ideas that are new to us.\n\nSome retroactive prizes have already been awarded as described below:\n\n>We’re giving prizes to existing proposals from David Dalrymple ($5k), Ramana Kumar ($3k), John Maxwell ($2k), and Yonadav Shavit ($1k)." }, { "id": 9455, "title": "[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?", "short_title": "BAS Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight in 2022", "url_title": "BAS Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight in 2022", "slug": "bas-doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-14T04:34:31.290831Z", "published_at": "2022-01-14T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.495078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-14T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-21T01:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-21T01:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-14T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9455, "title": "[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-14T04:34:31.290831Z", "open_time": "2022-01-14T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-14T20:27:26.391786Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-14T20:27:26.391786Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-21T01:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-21T01:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-21T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-20T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-20T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a regular publication by the [Bulletin of Atomic Scientists](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock) which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying \"it is 7 minutes to midnight\". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and \"disruptive technologies\" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks.\n\nIn January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to [100 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2020-doomsday-clock-statement/), its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they [re-affirmed that setting](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-doomsday-clock-statement-1.pdf). The clock has moved [24 times until now](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#Timeline), backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting less than 100 seconds to midnight, following the next official update. If the clock is set higher, or the clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve negatively. An announcement by BAS is [expected on January 20, 2022](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), if the BAS has no official announcement or update on the Doomsday Clock by January 1, 2023, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nThis question will close retroactively 1 hour before the BAS begins their formal announcement.", "fine_print": "In the case the clock is set to some non-real number such as a [complex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_number) or [uncomputable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computable_number) number, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 9455, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642676150.842916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642676150.842916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.6076650507373555 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13933489765603585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001934463669659151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00399474942074706, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020932748286055874, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.08577769642712495, 0.0, 0.8717788420003423, 0.24324123492021263, 0.0, 0.013680332418286303, 0.18822600238839451, 0.005219063217393415, 2.0785048231204164, 0.0, 0.40636843251296856, 0.0003945667068496994, 1.8144738017278579, 1.53316439816308, 2.550421947731477, 0.9214013707215836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5480108088988427, 0.0, 0.8834442327074047, 0.2445496426203224, 0.06703752842874332, 0.3158488276960945, 0.8955869527494565, 1.2959808199268112, 1.2876281095243476, 0.14537923474107467, 0.11119129618907028, 0.6590243760291536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8739501869520598, 0.0, 0.02109811515879707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7240305090092773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014621255512109687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44844870559744465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0718338306693455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.460261330767712, "coverage": 0.9973207980535951, "baseline_score": -27.798197996296814, "spot_peer_score": 5.687465181241868, "peer_archived_score": 1.460261330767712, "baseline_archived_score": -27.798197996296814, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.687465181241868 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642676150.869684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642676150.869684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 121, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36573882899381915, 0.6342611710061808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a regular publication by the [Bulletin of Atomic Scientists](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock) which represents the threat of a manmade global catastrophe. It was first published in 1947, saying \"it is 7 minutes to midnight\". The clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict, but has since included threats such as climate change and \"disruptive technologies\" such as biological weapons and cyber attacks.\n\nIn January 23, 2020, the BAS moved the clock to [100 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2020-doomsday-clock-statement/), its closest setting ever, and in January 27, 2021 they [re-affirmed that setting](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-doomsday-clock-statement-1.pdf). The clock has moved [24 times until now](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#Timeline), backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times." }, { "id": 9453, "title": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", "short_title": "ECB Raises Interest Rates in 2022", "url_title": "ECB Raises Interest Rates in 2022", "slug": "ecb-raises-interest-rates-in-2022", "author_id": 108495, "author_username": "copacetic", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-13T20:42:11.517583Z", "published_at": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.461622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-21T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-21T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 9453, "title": "Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-13T20:42:11.517583Z", "open_time": "2022-01-31T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-02T01:06:09.837225Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-02T01:06:09.837225Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-21T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-21T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T11:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-21T22:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.\n\nThere is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If the ECB raises their \"Fixed rate tenders Fixed rate\" higher than 0.00 before January 1, 2023. This policy must take effect in 2022; an announcement to do so in 2023 is not sufficient. The official source is [the ECB's website](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html).\n[FRED provides the same data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECBMRRFR) with more interactive interface.", "fine_print": "The ECB also publishes a \"deposit facility\" and a \"marginal lending facility\" rate in the short-term. These are not relevant for this question.\n\nIn case the ECB does not exist anymore and has not raised the interest rate, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 9453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658441332.974227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658441332.974227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9209553822446679 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8139697598267558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317060478821994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009731030724535509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007509578610630234, 0.00784546800835153, 0.007802279412307836, 0.0, 0.016977159482529324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639714922021464, 0.01550759793289652, 0.0, 0.004003664807775071, 0.023766204385014547, 0.010624089654698259, 0.0022160637316792613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.003539921380459027, 0.7288613858614631, 0.17666792169490694, 0.006338741283070649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04276893162242451, 0.02841357569228932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020260378170746603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9840050795573939, 0.18392010011692073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4889970706820055, 0.262625320860213, 1.441860932717884, 1.3517536698419572, 10.13516001477888 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.211035861121633, "coverage": 0.5131886548687045, "baseline_score": 26.396671867804844, "spot_peer_score": 31.219584977073584, "peer_archived_score": 7.211035861121633, "baseline_archived_score": 26.396671867804844, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.219584977073584 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658441332.997255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658441332.997255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03483563705849069, 0.9651643629415093 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Federal Reserve has announced raising interest rates](https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/inflation-could-lead-fed-to-hike-rates-more-than-4-times/) for the Dollar in 2022 in response to rising inflation. However, it's corresponding institution the European Central Bank (ECB) has not. The yearly inflation was nearly as high in December 2021 in the EU with [5%](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi) as in the US with [7%](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi). The [ECB considers the inflation a temporary phenomenon](https://www.ft.com/content/8e2036b9-c02e-45e8-87d8-c9d3362415f1) and expects the inflation rate to fall below the target rate of 2% within months without raising interest rates for the Euro.\n\nThere is political pressure to keep the interest rates for the Euro low [because of the risk that some EU member default on their debt](https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/the-euro-is-facing-a-make-or-break-year). There is counter-pressure to keep the Euro and Dollar exchange rate stable for global trade though." }, { "id": 9415, "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", "short_title": "Hillary Clinton Runs for President in 2024", "url_title": "Hillary Clinton Runs for President in 2024", "slug": "hillary-clinton-runs-for-president-in-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-12T20:52:31.587812Z", "published_at": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.412536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-08T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 191, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T00:44:28.209538Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9415, "title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-01-12T20:52:31.587812Z", "open_time": "2022-01-23T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-24T00:37:02.515187Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-24T00:37:02.515187Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-08T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-11T10:26:41.634297Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\n\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.", "resolution_criteria": "This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728616105.108464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728616105.108464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04448134736627655 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.089496191983706, 3.944022742795182, 0.23829242030336686, 0.0805705972192195, 0.1507068504147296, 0.08012547011246793, 0.1074703589901498, 0.051420436487206136, 0.4595357485672895, 0.0, 0.015592644819639602, 0.002283161180675344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.516997111395028e-06, 0.00015172748988614502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011439853627520885, 0.0, 0.002433472290508382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010902195537297488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44230872900051066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6212410398505608 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.55835577441059, "peer_score": 3.400786950093814, "coverage": 0.9106494141223418, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997997221633885, "spot_peer_score": 2.158139682182961, "baseline_archived_score": 89.55835577441059, "peer_archived_score": 3.400786950093814, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.158139682182961 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287684.513998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287684.513998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 193, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990951547546101, 0.0009048452453898681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 467, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\n\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more." }, { "id": 9348, "title": "Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?", "short_title": "Princeton cancels in person class in January", "url_title": "Princeton cancels in person class in January", "slug": "princeton-cancels-in-person-class-in-january", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-11T23:26:09.176051Z", "published_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.716857Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-26T16:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T16:24:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9348, "title": "Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-11T23:26:09.176051Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-14T23:19:20.418580Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-14T23:19:20.418580Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-26T16:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-26T16:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-26T16:24:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Because of the omicron variant, Princeton University [cancelled its finals at the end of the fall semester](https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1470999607194767368) and [issued requirements for the spring semester](https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1475545822808870912) in which it announced that gyms were closed and students advised to stay home. 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He was first elected to the senate in 2010, [defeating Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold (D) 51.9% to 47.0%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html), after Feingold had served the position since 1993. In the 2016 election, Johnson surprised the pollsters and [defeated Feingold once again with 50.2% of the vote to Feingold's 46.8%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin-senate-johnson-feingold).\n\nDespite the 2016 polls, based on which [fivethirtyeight (81.7%)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/) [The Upshot (66%)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html) and [RealClearPolitics (-2.7%)](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html) expected Feingold to win, Johnson won instead. \n\nRecently, Wisconsin has seen large polling errors towards the presidential Democratic candidate in [2016 (538: 6.1% error towards Clinton)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/) and in [2020 (538: 7.9% towards Biden)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/).\n\nAs of January 2022, [Cook Political has indicated Wisconsin is one of its six state \"toss-up\" 2022 senate elections](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). \n\nMany consider [Johnson a staunch Trump supporter](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/09/republican-u-s-sen-ron-johnson-announces-run-re-election/8797338002/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ron Johnson wins the 2022 US Senate election for Wisconsin, according to credible reports by March 1, 2023 or earlier. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9311, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667884781.935344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667884781.935344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18999999999999995, 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.8335066371421751 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004217311577006316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009181193227438069, 0.0, 0.024207940250914016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004494721632398304, 0.019549436878526404, 0.0032544757967450685, 0.007437300836147765, 0.03244322150261639, 0.10991437500106654, 0.0011554840615711417, 1.2305379779040941, 0.824808951353899, 0.0, 0.12719075336995467, 0.0, 0.12143838391847508, 0.0, 0.04166975124869794, 0.5234095009790177, 0.023267187987808503, 0.04533754177795674, 1.5927935707759406, 0.22864512609901524, 1.4393172939539247, 2.6814821879119584, 0.3876877107758425, 0.0, 0.37182283818623535, 0.8438631824026779, 0.4855952845072094, 0.20358675577850374, 0.3307535733100695, 0.9490716027736056, 1.2181214209355522, 0.22762194950976983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4342086593871048, 1.0991671910718668, 0.0, 0.26042202380758, 0.7734022429905383 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.6034451179694088, "coverage": 0.9995445783437317, "baseline_score": 31.268461057208945, "spot_peer_score": -7.132109941658228, "peer_archived_score": -0.6034451179694088, "baseline_archived_score": 31.268461057208945, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.132109941658228 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667884781.955129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667884781.955129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.20498773699894257, 0.7950122630010574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 388, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) is the senior US senator from Wisconsin. He was first elected to the senate in 2010, [defeating Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold (D) 51.9% to 47.0%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2010/results/wisconsin.html), after Feingold had served the position since 1993. In the 2016 election, Johnson surprised the pollsters and [defeated Feingold once again with 50.2% of the vote to Feingold's 46.8%](https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin-senate-johnson-feingold).\n\nDespite the 2016 polls, based on which [fivethirtyeight (81.7%)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/) [The Upshot (66%)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html) and [RealClearPolitics (-2.7%)](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_feingold-3740.html) expected Feingold to win, Johnson won instead. \n\nRecently, Wisconsin has seen large polling errors towards the presidential Democratic candidate in [2016 (538: 6.1% error towards Clinton)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/) and in [2020 (538: 7.9% towards Biden)](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/).\n\nAs of January 2022, [Cook Political has indicated Wisconsin is one of its six state \"toss-up\" 2022 senate elections](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings). \n\nMany consider [Johnson a staunch Trump supporter](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/01/09/republican-u-s-sen-ron-johnson-announces-run-re-election/8797338002/)." }, { "id": 9299, "title": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "short_title": "Healthcare Worker Vaccine Mandate Blocked?", "url_title": "Healthcare Worker Vaccine Mandate Blocked?", "slug": "healthcare-worker-vaccine-mandate-blocked", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-08T00:02:01.883714Z", "published_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.030489Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9299, "title": "Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?", "created_at": "2022-01-08T00:02:01.883714Z", "open_time": "2022-01-12T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-14T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-14T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-13T20:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-13T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-13T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 4, 2021, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued an [interim final rule](https://www.aha.org/special-bulletin/2021-11-04-cms-issues-interim-final-rule-requiring-mandatory-covid-19-vaccinations) requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for workers in most health care settings, including hospitals and health systems, that participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. \n\nThe mandate is being challenged in the cases of Biden v. Missouri and Becerra v. Louisiana. At the time of this question, arguments [are being held](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-biden-vaccine-mandate/2022/01/06/93b4d45c-6f2e-11ec-a5d2-7712163262f0_story.html) before the Supreme Court to block enforcement of the regulation. \n\nSee also Metaculus's Question 9033 [Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9033/scotus-blocks-osha-vaccine-mandate-2022/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will immediately resolve positively if the Supreme Court of the United States blocks enforcement of the [Emergency Regulation Requiring COVID-19 Vaccination for Health Care Workers](https://www.cms.gov/files/document/cms-omnibus-covid-19-health-care-staff-vaccination-requirements-2021.pdf) issued by the CMS, which can be found at the Federal Register [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/11/05/2021-23831/medicare-and-medicaid-programs-omnibus-covid-19-health-care-staff-vaccination). If the Supreme Court renders a decision to not block the regulation, then this immediately resolves negatively. If no ruling has been issued by the Supreme Court by the end of 2022, this question resolves negatively. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before SCOTUS issues a final decision", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642089834.965031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642089834.965031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3238470378614385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.0012627388295112377, "coverage": 0.0041273184753465465, "baseline_score": -0.06097810287087496, "spot_peer_score": 12.427996026402937, "peer_archived_score": -0.0012627388295112377, "baseline_archived_score": -0.06097810287087496, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.427996026402937 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1642089834.987281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1642089834.987281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7570690454169746, 0.2429309545830254 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 4, 2021, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued an [interim final rule](https://www.aha.org/special-bulletin/2021-11-04-cms-issues-interim-final-rule-requiring-mandatory-covid-19-vaccinations) requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for workers in most health care settings, including hospitals and health systems, that participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs. \n\nThe mandate is being challenged in the cases of Biden v. Missouri and Becerra v. Louisiana. At the time of this question, arguments [are being held](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/supreme-court-biden-vaccine-mandate/2022/01/06/93b4d45c-6f2e-11ec-a5d2-7712163262f0_story.html) before the Supreme Court to block enforcement of the regulation. \n\nSee also Metaculus's Question 9033 [Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9033/scotus-blocks-osha-vaccine-mandate-2022/)" }, { "id": 9214, "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", "short_title": "Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Exits Presidency 2022", "url_title": "Kassym-Jomart Tokayev Exits Presidency 2022", "slug": "kassym-jomart-tokayev-exits-presidency-2022", "author_id": 119683, "author_username": "Bergenhoek", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-05T17:12:08.805822Z", "published_at": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.477188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 9214, "title": "Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-01-05T17:12:08.805822Z", "open_time": "2022-01-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-08T11:44:16.475152Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-08T11:44:16.475152Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \n\nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\n\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, for a period of 1 week or more, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev does not hold the office the President of Kazahkstan (due to his resignation, a forceful coup, or through any means). This period must occur entirely in the year 2022 to resolve this question positively.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity (such as if more than one person claims to be the president), this question will consider Tokayev to remain the president if he has control of over 50% of Kazakh police forces or military forces", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520833.446994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01658961292735 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520833.446994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01658961292735 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02859430011153947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.671594479670008, 0.7865935244555649, 0.17391556805192088, 0.004958639536235962, 0.7035553326508956, 0.09157984357551607, 0.8699799446019627, 0.2311803578273164, 0.021612403177388988, 0.09659262157194631, 0.03875562006330473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10529092820210165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0134789797452288, 0.0, 0.026995489699591035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01929855764319108, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.010410228191898815, 0.11050043038414897, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05904837310470422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006710788861047596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041768548738893045, 0.0, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010154633171455994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07066749202653273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.995234535003625, "coverage": 0.9997129813898279, "baseline_score": 79.39342950467287, "spot_peer_score": 12.12393866038811, "peer_archived_score": 14.995234535003625, "baseline_archived_score": 79.39342950467287, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.12393866038811 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672520833.476094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672520833.476094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 183, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 2nd, 2022, a steep rise in fuel prices in Kazakhstan led to [local protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_protests), which quickly led to nationwide demonstrations including in the nation’s capital. The demands of the protesters are the decrease in fuel prices, but now include the resignation of both the current president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and the cabinet and also the removal of criminal immunity of the former president Nursultan Nazabayev. A state of emergency has been declared, and the Mamin Cabinet, the current government of the country, resigned on January 5th. \n\nLater on January 5th, Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned as the Chairman of the Security Council. [Tokayev succeeded him](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/).\n\nThere have been reports of [dozens of police and civilian deaths](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/protesters-police-die-amid-kazakhstan-unrest), alongside widespread arson and looting. 3,000 Russian paratroopers have [arrived in Kazakhstan](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/06/shots-heard-in-kazakhstan-as-protests-enter-third-day)." }, { "id": 9207, "title": "Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?", "short_title": "Chinese COVID Deaths Over 50k before 2023", "url_title": "Chinese COVID Deaths Over 50k before 2023", "slug": "chinese-covid-deaths-over-50k-before-2023", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-05T10:51:05.002223Z", "published_at": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.065504Z", 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cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?", "created_at": "2022-01-05T10:51:05.002223Z", "open_time": "2022-01-11T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T18:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, 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otherwise it should resolve negatively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9207, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672527614.169107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672527614.169107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.045676525272568845 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 20.65671296455376, 1.1178831657318724, 1.0469597820905494, 0.08415659632365452, 0.08939348182553927, 0.20730635230651356, 0.00650630935576489, 0.0, 0.016996327949885114, 0.02843258697532883, 0.0038291107251858868, 0.0, 0.0130413852495686, 0.0, 0.0012547504438466578, 0.05437013109331267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0073874058157270255, 0.022696615243143266, 0.002161336181131908, 0.0, 0.0, 7.172670065044927e-06, 0.009711661201871898, 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according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/china#daily-confirmed-deaths-how-do-they-compare-to-other-countries).\n\nThis figure has been widely questioned, e.g. by [Forbes](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/amp/) and [ABC news](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100587910), with suggestions ranging from true numbers in the low 10,000s to over 1,000,000." }, { "id": 9189, "title": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", "short_title": "Liverpool Win 2021-2022 Premier League", "url_title": "Liverpool Win 2021-2022 Premier League", "slug": "liverpool-win-2021-2022-premier-league", "author_id": 120418, "author_username": "tomchivers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-01-04T19:37:21.895925Z", "published_at": "2022-01-07T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.025972Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"2022-01-08T09:05:21.512858Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-08T09:05:21.512858Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-22T20:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-22T20:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-22T20:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-03T23:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-03T23:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Liverpool]() are an association football team in the English [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League), the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. \n\nAs of the January 5, 2022 [League Table](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. [FiveThiryEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Liverpool are declared winners of the 2021-2022 Premier League. If any other team wins the season, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nIn the case that the season is cancelled, or for any reason there is no official winner of the season, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 9189, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649019897.513243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649019897.513243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.32937175133912117 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04228688608058346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30286288333520944, 0.6969190807002642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.6189026832137073, 0.6618097865186808, 0.004442640210629016, 1.4152901775834237, 0.0, 0.2401205561483583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7023230631319279, 0.7288472840026776, 0.2789776138744853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01946471143816275, 0.48978511741558245, 0.3800008329989495, 1.3660660569547625, 0.18359759802510756, 0.641732636913686, 0.08492445050985817, 0.5741128133862249, 0.457422476445143, 0.4968606416952524, 1.3995057784314178, 0.4880650175027934, 0.5990421518185429, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.777238463870146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.7086786474649938, "coverage": 0.9985623845465437, "baseline_score": 66.30905806064594, "spot_peer_score": 1.5766770074102738, "peer_archived_score": 1.7086786474649938, "baseline_archived_score": 66.30905806064594, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.5766770074102738 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649019897.54117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649019897.54117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8008643596317769, 0.19913564036822307 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Liverpool]() are an association football team in the English [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League), the top league in the English Football league system. They have qualified to remain in the Premier League since the League was founded in 1992. Liverpool's most recent win in the Premier League was in the 2019-2020 season. \n\nAs of the January 5, 2022 [League Table](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), Manchester City are firmly in first place, with Chelsea and Liverpool in close competition for second. [FiveThiryEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/) (as of January 5, 2022) gives Liverpool 13% chance to win the league." } ] }
