Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4460
{ "count": 6390, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4440", "results": [ { "id": 8998, "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", "short_title": "Psychedelic Drug Legalization in US 2022", "url_title": "Psychedelic Drug Legalization in US 2022", "slug": "psychedelic-drug-legalization-in-us-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-21T17:34:22.577856Z", "published_at": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.314168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-27T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8998, "title": "Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-21T17:34:22.577856Z", "open_time": "2021-12-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-27T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-27T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\n\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\n\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any US state decriminalizes or legalizes any of the following:\n\n* psilocybin\n* LSD\n* MDMA\n* mescaline\n* DMT\n\nbetween December 21, 2021 to January 1, 2023 (excluding Oregon's current decriminalization of psilocybin and LSD). This question may also resolve as **Yes** if any of the above drugs is reclassified as a [Schedule III, IV, V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_III_controlled_substances) or unrestricted substance federally. Decriminalization or Legalization may be restricted to medical or recreational use, and may be restricted to within a maximum amount/dose.\n\nThe law may decriminalize/legalize some activities, but not others; that is, the question may resolve as **Yes** if any of posession, sale, transport, or production/cultivation are decriminalized, while others remain criminal. [\"Deprioritization\"](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/third-massachusetts-city-approves-psychedelics-decriminalization-measure/), where the substance remains criminalized but is deprioritized for enforcement and prosecution, will not qualify to resolve this question.\n\nIt is not necessary for such legislation to *take effect* before January 1, 2023; it is sufficient for the legislation to be signed into law before January 1, 2023 to resolve the question as **Yes**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8998, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672139440.873937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672139440.873937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8246418729923038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06997299886455438, 0.009351053392530643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028849195132238964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014084327281215552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01876439534648408, 0.004846927288182437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.175490986587073e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011271455531625656, 0.0, 0.010596172111721123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9610631850112545, 0.08830556141120832, 0.0, 0.0002924010445042972, 1.8878829323317208e-05, 0.000495709636511211, 0.04662145553740119, 0.0191233284331316, 0.008777950393989205, 0.014306625975991366, 9.207607480419828e-05, 0.0455207368285565, 1.0003265444368283, 0.00044807912297860667, 0.0015882758694172132, 0.018911643611852255, 0.006522398651948667, 0.05055814241129497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.3665304383813278, 0.5394422756234016, 0.0009560828710929873, 0.0, 0.03192490595089939, 0.35499586192393506, 0.725858627973708, 0.0, 1.1184731425461583, 0.01524703166576841, 0.029568408410138032, 0.0, 0.00026109629576960303, 0.030224977292180277, 0.0, 0.14222755423148806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06324985707110807, 0.7625136867301899, 0.8179292050306958, 0.0, 0.18916564154338897, 0.9235261839659077, 0.7552607636994204, 0.6054922159971493, 0.03576484777720044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5596927731383644, 3.7900784762051494, 1.6294984578138139, 1.8578693438501033, 0.0, 0.5436116243507125, 0.8274694246778609, 0.566699762938314, 1.22816622150886, 0.0, 2.7932090878574494 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.266358301392006, "coverage": 0.9887665737798144, "baseline_score": 22.55116866511728, "spot_peer_score": 9.047758496611593, "peer_archived_score": 7.266358301392006, "baseline_archived_score": 22.55116866511728, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.047758496611593 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672139440.903328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672139440.903328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21213071495558122, 0.7878692850444188 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 417, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Oregon become the [first state to decriminalize psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) in November 2020 via a ballot measure. Psilocybin (also known as \"mushrooms\") is also decriminalized in a few cities in the US, but remains a [Schedule I drug federally](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances).\n\nA bill to legalize psilocybin, LSD, and other psychedelics has been [reviewed by the California Senate in August 2021](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB519). Oregon has decriminalized posession of [small doses of LSD](https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/oregon-drug-decriminalization-1121763/).\n\n[MDMA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#Legal_status), [mescaline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mescaline#United_States), and [DMT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N,N-Dimethyltryptamine#By_country_and_continent) are Schedule I drugs and are illegal for all purposes federally.\n\nScott Wiener, California state representative who authored SB-519 to decriminalize psychedelics, [said in February 2021](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-california-bill-would-decriminalize-psychedelics-expunge-criminal-records-n1258261), \"The war on drugs has been a complete failure, It hasn't stopped people from using drugs and it hasn’t stopped addiction.\" Other proponents of decriminalization argue psychedelics have [legitimate uses for medical or psychotheraputic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychedelic_therapy)." }, { "id": 8997, "title": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", "short_title": "New Variant of Concern in 2022", "url_title": "New Variant of Concern in 2022", "slug": "new-variant-of-concern-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-21T16:32:22.897656Z", "published_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.918775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 169, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8997, "title": "Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-21T16:32:22.897656Z", "open_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Health Organization publishes a list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added [Omicron](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) to this classification, bringing the total number of VoCs to 5.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if anytime between December 24, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the World Health Organization adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/). This may include a reclassification of any variant or descendent of a variant currently known in December 24, 2021 as a Variant of Interest or Variant Under Monitoring. Classifications by other sources or organizations such as the [US CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/) or [ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en) are irrelevant to the resolution of this question", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8997, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672499143.724171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672499143.724171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03528715715096939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 21.93112793465617, 0.06691247485760864, 0.9835293533344817, 0.04735297511367224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07958944846898953, 0.019358670696487605, 0.04502645543556653, 0.04280320918686097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022812297082170897, 0.03671241546185856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026804956076009214, 0.03844962529427949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028268169275230848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09349435795220583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5322280994603329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11266390620482061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0204542126356247, 0.0, 0.024665964559313875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0055733981844618904, 0.0, 0.04067909198918895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043274505838245365, 0.017322862987469302, 0.0, 0.00010868935988262883, 0.01831563888873418, 0.010564302259165197, 0.0009905626234932852, 0.0, 0.059237505477034685, 0.01010650805314493, 0.0278213910176879, 0.020586187273870668, 0.005058491158644114, 0.013713117063317739, 2.1148702063730683e-05, 0.022742299098747334, 0.0, 0.0016305648823588491, 0.00126151149259478, 0.0021258935958869147, 0.04699276233374274, 0.0028553193907744734, 0.009767051749369234, 8.318456663361169e-05, 0.00027351106587384874, 0.009954749799995864, 0.0001978771756006249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015595245747216204, 0.0003096523161766546, 0.0, 0.0019938855288780034, 0.00017669224695917622, 0.0005406305443160979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6180118864425837e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 39.11842572248939, "coverage": 0.9991849964786744, "baseline_score": -64.51111933290953, "spot_peer_score": -25.749612095246757, "peer_archived_score": 39.11842572248939, "baseline_archived_score": -64.51111933290953, "spot_peer_archived_score": -25.749612095246757 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672499143.753646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672499143.753646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 169, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 483, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The World Health Organization publishes a list of [Variants of Concern](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) (VoC), which is currently WHO's most serious classification of SARS-Cov-2 variants. On November 26, 2021, WHO added [Omicron](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) to this classification, bringing the total number of VoCs to 5." }, { "id": 8994, "title": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?", "short_title": "Jaedon Whyte on US IMO before 2023", "url_title": "Jaedon Whyte on US IMO before 2023", "slug": "jaedon-whyte-on-us-imo-before-2023", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-21T03:12:51.789118Z", "published_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.875931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-07-01T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-02T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8994, "title": "Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-21T03:12:51.789118Z", "open_time": "2022-01-13T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-15T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-15T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-01T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-07-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-07-01T16:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier math competition for high school competitions. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. \n Recently, the teams have been largely Asian American. As of yet no Black American has represented the USA at the IMO.\n\nJaedon Whyte [won the USA Mathematical Olympiad in 2021](https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/AMC/usamo/2021/2021%20USAMO%20Winners.pdf) and [got a silver medal at the Romanian Masters in Mathematics](https://rmms.lbi.ro/rmm2021/index.php?id=results_math). He will graduate from [Archimedean Upper Conservatory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_Upper_Conservatory), a public charter high school, [in 2022.](https://ideamath.education/landing/staff)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if by the resolve date if Jaedon Whyte qualifies for the USA IMO team, as reported by [the official IMO website.](http://imo-official.org/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1658733601.677926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1658733601.677926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.3317569982114435 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.461577288966867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4015366360443102, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.3390876156680339, 1.0897005984553316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.69813346302705, "coverage": 0.9970876703594911, "baseline_score": 4.13700297681327, "spot_peer_score": 4.770028121355789, "peer_archived_score": 22.69813346302705, "baseline_archived_score": 4.13700297681327, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.770028121355789 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656660989.645292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656660989.645292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6260647085368972, 0.3739352914631028 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://www.imo-official.org/) is the premier math competition for high school competitions. The [United States](https://www.imo-official.org/country_info.aspx?code=USA) [has participated](https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=USA) in the IMO 47 times. \n Recently, the teams have been largely Asian American. As of yet no Black American has represented the USA at the IMO.\n\nJaedon Whyte [won the USA Mathematical Olympiad in 2021](https://www.maa.org/sites/default/files/pdf/AMC/usamo/2021/2021%20USAMO%20Winners.pdf) and [got a silver medal at the Romanian Masters in Mathematics](https://rmms.lbi.ro/rmm2021/index.php?id=results_math). He will graduate from [Archimedean Upper Conservatory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archimedean_Upper_Conservatory), a public charter high school, [in 2022.](https://ideamath.education/landing/staff)" }, { "id": 8992, "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", "short_title": "US Ends Funding GoF Research in 2022", "url_title": "US Ends Funding GoF Research in 2022", "slug": "us-ends-funding-gof-research-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T22:42:57.622848Z", "published_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.336239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", 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} }, "question": { "id": 8992, "title": "Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T22:42:57.622848Z", "open_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\n\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\n\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the US government announces a ban on federally funding gain-of-function research, effective anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023. This ban may persist for any length of time, so long as it effectively begins during this period. Official government statements or Credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485250.007071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485250.007071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021509035966335854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 16.36919510010684, 0.5514694454288998, 0.15845768353311826, 0.023617499732215674, 0.3008129171145619, 0.08749083024239418, 0.14390286237131, 0.0, 0.046059384244688986, 0.7344861304807225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.022885625738894827, 0.0, 0.033553256086699505, 0.07197020945035035, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.01165090522265563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05262892284233545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.010016914689181335, 0.0, 0.049416883765582266, 0.0, 0.013327313936343727, 0.035324320196693036, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.023505217473568974, 0.002521989870382343, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0018810818436737359, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009241705689538895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021832922439402977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008533746853385664 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.378221579968093, "coverage": 0.9988618808298885, "baseline_score": 65.1114288759175, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 12.378221579968093, "baseline_archived_score": 65.1114288759175, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485250.032079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485250.032079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Gain of Function research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain-of-function_research) (GoF) is a form of experimentation where medical researchers modify viruses and study ways in which they might become more transmissible or deadly. In [October 2014](https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a), The US implemented a ban on funding Gof research, which was later [lifted in December 2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08837-7).\n\nVox Journalist Kelsey Piper in May 2020 [investigated several incidents](https://www.vox.com/2020/5/1/21243148/why-some-labs-work-on-making-viruses-deadlier-and-why-they-should-stop) of mishandling virus samples and laboratory safety violations. In reviewing the arguments for and against GoF research, Piper found the risks of such research leading to a deadly outbreak to be significant.\n\nIn a related Metaculus question [\"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/), The median prediction on December 24, 2021 is at 40%." }, { "id": 8991, "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", "short_title": "2022 Warmer Than 2021", "url_title": "2022 Warmer Than 2021", "slug": "2022-warmer-than-2021", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T22:29:26.104493Z", "published_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.537471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8991, "title": "Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T22:29:26.104493Z", "open_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-13T01:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-13T01:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-13T01:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/)\n* [Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/)\n\n----\n\n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if global surface temperatures in 2022 are warmer than in 2021, according to [NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). In the event of a statistical tie, another credible source such as [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp) may be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8991, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675041663.963119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9603802343103521 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675041663.963119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 270, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9603802343103521 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.03961976568964787, 0.9603802343103521 ], "means": [ 0.9304395114881665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.006831892325798997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007785648805820286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029133077133802737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.604768718066376e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2364705093025905e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003128218544173079, 0.0, 6.837942643684738e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033127628006672744, 0.004680432895976254, 0.00019206650779663483, 0.0, 2.6895801632001816e-06, 0.07746126840922027, 0.0003767730119250687, 0.029522822175865982, 0.06720931840803515, 0.02035275747062376, 0.038457178482977764, 0.03398700479536147, 0.128044438513955, 0.00037534198790487966, 0.006706675513955153, 1.90934280614697, 0.07660173103453487, 0.00016429749676206393, 0.04305162028216972, 0.0036128381536656325, 0.23404667517709699, 0.033598565218681445, 0.12505812737750172, 0.022332303241758875, 0.08603198955492297, 0.46733535811688376, 0.08739673944434602, 0.0471826625655731, 0.09794603305058269, 0.021918233062197603, 0.6637775320825224, 0.0, 0.4609923605573688, 0.00012994984994288075, 0.10500202656448793, 3.3842721037697303, 0.7220745049245116, 1.4887151191719172, 0.23106708992332356, 0.8337535367008431, 2.28188582852985, 2.3709054906256775, 2.0488382061751844, 2.1603330181083273, 10.937082519193645 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.173956530188372, "coverage": 0.8910555105153578, "baseline_score": 43.14621598212316, "spot_peer_score": 34.10145549182519, "peer_archived_score": 4.173956530188372, "baseline_archived_score": 43.14621598212316, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.10145549182519 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673249807.663817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673249807.663817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05623309572569535, 0.9437669042743047 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 573, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/)\n* [Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8882/2022-hottest-year-on-record/)\n\n----\n\n8 years between 2010 to 2019 have been in [the top 10 warmest years on record](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013) according to NOAA's 2020 report. The remaining 2 years in the top 10 were 2020 and 2005. This is one indicator of global [climate change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change) caused by humans.\n\n[NASA's GISTEMP](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) analysis of global surface temperatures show an average increase of 0.032C per year from 2001 - 2020, and an avarage increase of 0.02C from 1971 - 2020. 13 out of 20 years between 2001 - 2020 were warmer than their preceeding year." }, { "id": 8989, "title": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", "short_title": "1+ Nations with <10% COVID Vaccinated by 2023", "url_title": "1+ Nations with <10% COVID Vaccinated by 2023", "slug": "1-nations-with-10-covid-vaccinated-by-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T21:55:54.425192Z", "published_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.885479Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-07T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T07:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8989, "title": "Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T21:55:54.425192Z", "open_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-07T07:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-07T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-07T07:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/)\n\n----\n\nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if on December 31, 2022, any nation reports that less than 10% of their population has recieved at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine, according to [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations#what-share-of-the-population-has-received-at-least-one-dose-of-the-covid-19-vaccine). Nations which do not have any data (such as North Korea) may be excluded unless an alternative credible source is available.\n\nResolution may be delayed for 2 months to account for delays in reporting data", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672957986.956476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672957986.956476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.960113026337733 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05655496978741165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0996143889238595e-05, 0.0001658047095401905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003820470207824322, 0.00043657561297306415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033468106014687026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014906433286507206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005313625627098997, 0.0030166721736335144, 0.0, 0.023111014023644648, 0.0, 0.0077867742407012434, 0.001107422068954574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011780550941447867, 0.025286243634599734, 0.0, 0.18488914701955098, 0.0, 0.9343900901675543, 0.012030213179844026, 0.0, 0.05043500666630901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5098470610726511, 0.0008989490934055834, 0.0, 0.00011634523772452915, 0.007835854789148246, 0.15032018539741626, 0.0, 0.024609385469461523, 0.07801876302078198, 0.0, 1.3086895418546498, 0.0, 0.013725478571129763, 0.005815308823043633, 0.0, 0.3173383649675366, 0.08824742957463964, 0.5319237250256279, 0.6249743903222366, 16.93681885254431 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.056609389231422, "coverage": 0.8773516306375412, "baseline_score": 68.91999552308215, "spot_peer_score": 23.104906018664835, "peer_archived_score": 18.056609389231422, "baseline_archived_score": 68.91999552308215, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.104906018664835 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672762967.61301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672762967.61301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.013818968095438144, 0.9861810319045619 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 306, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9031/low-income-countries-vaccinated-by-eoy-2022/)\n\n----\n\nAs the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant) is spreading globally, [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=High+income~Upper+middle+income~Lower+middle+income~Low+income~OWID_WRL) shows a massive disparity in vaccine distribution among countries. High-income and upper-middle income countries have at least 75% of their populations with at least 1 dose of a vaccine as of December 24, 2021. For low-income countries, the same figure is 8.3%. Classification of countries by income level is determined by the World Bank and can be found [here](https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/scripts/input/wb/income_groups.csv).\n\n\"By virtually every measure, global vaccine distribution and equity have been an abysmal failure and a deep moral crisis,” [said Lawrence Gostin](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) of Georgetown Law. The World Health Organization's COVAX initiative, a program aimed and global vaccine distribution, [set an initial target](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/22/will-low-income-countries-be-vaccinated-against-covid-in-2022) to reach a 20% rate in every country by end of 2021, and later raised their target to 40%.\n\n\"We’re now at a point of having more than a billion doses a month of vaccines being produced, but it’s a slow trickle still to get to low-income countries and lower middle-income countries,\" said Dr Krishna Udayakumar, of the Duke Global Health Innovation Center in December 2021. Airfinity, a UK analytics company, [estimated in November 2021](https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/10/1052078529/why-low-income-countries-are-so-short-on-covid-vaccines-hint-its-not-boosters) that 500 million vaccine doses had been stockpiled (largely in rich countries) overshooting the demand in their respective countries, and projected this excess stockpile would grow to 970 million doses by June 2022." }, { "id": 8984, "title": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "short_title": "Norway Wins Most Golds in 2022 Olympics", "url_title": "Norway Wins Most Golds in 2022 Olympics", "slug": "norway-wins-most-golds-in-2022-olympics", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T21:01:10.276541Z", "published_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.018206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": 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"category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8984, "title": "Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T21:01:10.276541Z", "open_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T22:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-20T22:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-20T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-03T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\n\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\n\n| Year | Gold Ranking | Silver Ranking | Bronze Ranking | Total Medal Ranking |\n| -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | \n| 2018 | 1 (tied) | 1 | 1 | 1 | \n| 2014 | 1 (tied) | 8 | 1 (tied) | 3 | \n| 2010 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | \n| 2006 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6 | \n| 2002 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | \n\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Norway holds the most Gold medals over any other country across all events in the [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics).", "fine_print": "In the event that 2 or more countries are tied for the most Gold medals, the tie will be broken by whoever wins the most Silver medals. If those are also tied, the tie will be broken by Bronze medals. If they remain tied, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the case that the Winter Olympics are cancelled or postponed, the \"2022 Winter Olympics\" will be considered to be the major winter sporting event recognized by the [International Olympic Comittee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee) held during the years 2022 to 2025, inclusive.", "post_id": 8984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643889946.810744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643889946.810744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5079772839063963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06266573143841023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_peer_score": 0.01575671659370695, "peer_archived_score": 5.34383316163101, "baseline_archived_score": -6.36772320102972, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.01575671659370695 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643889946.84392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643889946.84392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5194442229800422, 0.4805557770199577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2022 Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics) are scheduled for February 4 - 20, 2022 in Beijing, China, amidst the backdrop of the spread of the [Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omicron_variant) and [diplomatic boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_and_controversies_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics).\n\nIn the past 5 Winter Olympics, Norway has achived 2 #1 ranks and several impressive feats, whereas in the past 5 Summer Olympics they have achieved more moderate ranks.\n\n| Year | Gold Ranking | Silver Ranking | Bronze Ranking | Total Medal Ranking |\n| -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | \n| 2018 | 1 (tied) | 1 | 1 | 1 | \n| 2014 | 1 (tied) | 8 | 1 (tied) | 3 | \n| 2010 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | \n| 2006 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 6 | \n| 2002 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | \n\nA record [109 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Sports) will be held in 15 disciplines." }, { "id": 8982, "title": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", "short_title": "Belfast (2021) Wins Best Picture Oscar", "url_title": "Belfast (2021) Wins Best Picture Oscar", "slug": "belfast-2021-wins-best-picture-oscar", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T20:49:44.301064Z", "published_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.572624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8982, "title": "Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T20:49:44.301064Z", "open_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-28T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-26T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-26T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Belfast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_(film)) (2021) is a comedy-drama movie directed by [Kenneth Branagh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Branagh), which tells a coming-of-age story taking place during [The Troubles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles) in Northern Ireland. It recieved 7 nominations at the [Golden Globe Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_Golden_Globe_Awards) and 11 nominations at the [Critics' Choice Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/27th_Critics%27_Choice_Awards). [RottenTomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/belfast) gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/belfast) gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics.\n\nThe [94th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards) (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Nominations are scheduled to be announced February 8, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Belfast wins the Best Picture award at the [2022 Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards), and will resolve negatively otherwise. 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It recieved 7 nominations at the [Golden Globe Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/79th_Golden_Globe_Awards) and 11 nominations at the [Critics' Choice Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/27th_Critics%27_Choice_Awards). [RottenTomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/belfast) gave the film an 86% rating based on 231 selected reviewers and [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/movie/belfast) gave it a 77 / 100 from 45 aggregated critics.\n\nThe [94th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/94th_Academy_Awards) (known as \"The Oscars\") is scheduled to be held on March 27, 2022, and will award films released between March 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. 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"2021-12-20T20:29:54.815267Z", "open_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-05-26T01:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-05-26T01:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-05-26T01:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-05-08T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\n\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\n\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Bongbong Marcos wins the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, according to official declarations by the Philippine government, or credible media reports.\n\nIf Marcos withdraws his candidacy or is otherwise not a candidate at the time polls open, this question will resolve ambiguously. This question will be determined by who officially wins the election, regardless of whether the candidate is then inaugurated or performs the duties of the presidency", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652005068.608203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652005068.608203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8768754025424231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008677486979024548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035024798771327416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034361985631411136, 0.15062004579999455, 0.07409305685696625, 0.0, 0.151812353241977, 0.4595518270620163, 0.4999366231785076, 0.44053725373688835, 0.0634485126482765, 0.6213782665940669, 0.0, 0.45682991800979034, 1.6310682169181154, 0.2247103451383613, 0.953849210949674, 0.004812874465935, 0.0, 0.7136824115987526, 0.7877993161356337, 0.2655119708254729, 1.3017571603496525, 1.0124456442660876, 0.17233299106587716, 0.5884823613661859, 1.2634814349487011, 0.3575165757795943, 1.0317341555362036, 1.038654799130104, 0.9014987091715116, 1.3614368279579538, 0.0, 1.3273785354360448 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.76540007904047, "coverage": 0.9980730827838925, "baseline_score": 62.832987160542345, "spot_peer_score": -2.796049466023408, "peer_archived_score": 2.76540007904047, "baseline_archived_score": 62.832987160542345, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.796049466023408 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1652005068.631071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1652005068.631071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10620594157667618, 0.8937940584233238 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [next Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Philippine_presidential_election) in the Philippines is scheduled for May 9, 2022. Incumbent President [Rodrigo Duterte](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Duterte) is inelligble to run for a second term under the Philippine constitution.\n\nOpinion polling on December 11, 2021 found [Bongbong Marcos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bongbong_Marcos) with a massive lead of 49.2% of respondents in favor, with the next runner-up candidate [Leni Robredo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leni_Robredo) (current Vice President) with 16.2%.\n\nAs of December 22, 2021, [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022) gives Marcos approximately 76% to win, while Sports betting site [BetOnline](https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures/2022-philippine-presidential-election) gives Marcos 1.16 decimal odds (86% probability) to win." }, { "id": 8977, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", "short_title": "Roe v. Wade Overturned before 2023", "url_title": "Roe v. Wade Overturned before 2023", "slug": "roe-v-wade-overturned-before-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-20T19:48:44.678580Z", "published_at": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.720160Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 263, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8977, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T19:48:44.678580Z", "open_time": "2021-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-28T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-28T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-06-24T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/)\n\n----\n\nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\n\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under *Casey*, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, anytime between December 1, 2021 to January 1, 2023, the [Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States\n) overturns a previous ruling or upholds a state or federal law which bans elective abortions at some point [before the date of fetal viability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Parenthood_v._Casey). This decision may be rendered in [*Dobbs*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), a case concerning [the Texas Heartbeat Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Heartbeat_Act), or in another case.\n\nBy \"banning elective abortions\", we mean for the purpose of this question any kind of criminal punishment, such as a felony, misdemeanor, infraction, or fine, as well as civil punishments such as revocation of medical or professional licenses, or eg. allowing private parties to sue abortion practitioners or patients. These punishments may be directed at individuals recieving abortions, individual doctors or medical professionals, or clinics and organizations who provide abortions, either punishing them for abortions performed or recieved, or making them effectively unable to perform/recieve an abortion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1656084961.885023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1656084961.885023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9214867546506702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.7943289404733e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.303233723854388e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.23162473325165e-06, 0.2870563304111726, 0.0, 4.390462318109121e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043513608912290353, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6026668618539194e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.673191534448746e-05, 0.0, 0.2596521616397071, 0.10189251808891317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.279179943446195e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9557367435317223, 8.335331238619756e-05, 7.746015939200844e-05, 0.0, 7.294305804524943e-05, 1.317932157499662e-06, 0.0, 0.008976262832092258, 0.0, 0.0919134649085803, 0.35932185012234896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2290751876774687, 0.029597275775751313, 0.7901288166631759, 0.09397090745158113, 0.0, 0.29654583765550974, 0.00026176149080020674, 0.48485659459621117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7428729167537, 0.006298417584008872, 0.0001274269982622495, 0.26526789418615343, 0.5775214587289208, 2.9361189321565675, 0.10408083792701472, 1.992291078583467, 1.3961604132124474, 1.2402606086970769, 1.4066089637889334, 0.6171606101148392, 1.3939335886939186, 0.03334922487251338, 14.296749291591942 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.773115397711701, "coverage": 0.48637327291493115, "baseline_score": 23.314490381089197, "spot_peer_score": -14.960430908856125, "peer_archived_score": 5.773115397711701, "baseline_archived_score": 23.314490381089197, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.960430908856125 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1655884088.8733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 260, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1655884088.8733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 260, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09052858575902234, 0.9094714142409777 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 484, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/)\n\n----\n\nAbortion is a famously controversial subject in the US, with adamant proponents for both sides arguing for abortion to be legal or illegal in all or nearly all circumstances. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that [55-65% of Americans fall in the middle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/), favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 [more Americans support Roe v Wade](https://news.gallup.com/poll/350804/americans-opposed-overturning-roe-wade.aspx) than wish to overturn it.\n\nIn October 2021, [Amy Coney Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) was appointed to the US Supreme Court, making 6 of the 9 sitting justices appointed by a Republican president. Many political pundits anticipated that this majority would result in overturning or altering [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade). In Texas, [a law effectively banning abortions](https://web.archive.org/web/20211001005809/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/health/texas-abortion-law-facts.html) occurring after the 6th week of pregnancy was brought before the court, but the case was [dismissed on procedural grounds](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/texass-abortion-law-is-unprecedented-but-the-supreme-court-isnt-treating-it-that-way/). The court also heard arguments in [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), pertaining to a ban in Mississippi on abortions occurring after 15 weeks of pregnancy (fetal viability, the previous standard under *Casey*, is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy). Dobbs is anticipated to be decided by June of 2022." }, { "id": 8968, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?", "short_title": "US Fed Sets Negative Target Interest Rate", "url_title": "US Fed Sets Negative Target Interest Rate", "slug": "us-fed-sets-negative-target-interest-rate", "author_id": 120048, "author_username": "basil.halperin", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104161, "username": "casens" } ], "created_at": "2021-12-20T18:54:11.881975Z", "published_at": "2022-01-17T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T01:11:44.657032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-17T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-17T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8968, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-12-20T18:54:11.881975Z", "open_time": "2022-01-17T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-19T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the early 1980s, most central banks have communicated their operation of monetary policy by setting a policy nominal interest rate. For example, the Fed in the US communicates the stance of monetary policy through its target for the federal funds rate (FFR); the Bank of England communicates the stance of monetary policy through its direct control of the official bank rate. (This in contrast to e.g. Milton Friedman's famous [proposal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman%27s_k-percent_rule) for a rule for the growth rate of the monetary base.) \n\nSince all interest rates in an economy are linked by arbitrage pressure, the Fed by controlling the FFR can affect more general interest rates facing consumers and businesses – such as interest rates on bank deposits. The consensus understanding of monetary policy is that by controlling the current and expected future path of these interest rates, central banks can influence economic activity: GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other metrics.\n\nHowever, it has long been believed that central banks cannot push their policy rates much below zero. This is because of a no-arbitrage relation with physical cash. By holding physical cash, you can guarantee yourself a 0% nominal return: if you have 100 dollars in cash in your wallet today, you can ensure that you'll have 100 nominal dollars in your wallet next year, therefore guaranteeing a 0% nominal return. Thus, if the central bank tried to set its policy rate to cause the nominal bank deposit rate to be (say) -20%, then most everyone would pull their money out of the banking system and hold cash instead, to obtain the higher interest rate. ([This is essentially a form of Gresham's Law](http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-modern-example-of-greshams-law.html): central banks peg physical cash and bank reserves at a 1:1 rate; but the rate of return on the two need not be the same.)\n\nThis zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates however is not a hard limit: because of the costs and inconvenience of storing cash and preventing theft, individuals and firms are willing to accept a somewhat negative nominal interest rate. Indeed, in Europe, the policy rate has been slightly negative since 2014, and this has spilled over to interest rates facing households, such as [mortgage rates in Denmark](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage).\n\nIn the United States, unlike the ECB in the Eurozone, the Fed has been unwilling to target a policy rate even modestly below zero. [Various](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [Fed](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [officials](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-evans-inflatio/feds-evans-sees-no-inflation-risk-and-no-use-for-negative-rates-idUSKBN22N2H5) have argued (among other things) that they lack the [legal authority](https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-35041) to do so; or that benefits would not be large enough to outweigh some perceived risks.\n\nA history of the Federal Funds rate can be found at [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, anytime between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, the target policy rate set by the Federal Reserve is negative. This information is taken from (e.g.) the latest press release on [the Federal Reserve’s website](http://www.federalreserve.gov/).", "fine_print": "The current policy rate of the Federal Reserve is the federal funds rate, but this may change by the time of the resolution criteria.\nIf the Fed specifies a _range_ for the policy rate, then this resolves if any part of the range is negative (strictly less than zero).", "post_id": 8968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761700294.420374, "end_time": 1766914642.756355, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761700294.420374, "end_time": 1766914642.756355, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5535706217953373 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4700096739574802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8800542469314756, 0.5505289351792777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42014526171597266, 0.6423888484513706, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.8572630811892814, 1.0393760808545158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28089926887985633, 0.0, 1.2868802957124672, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8424046196428012, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5089300594347316, 0.6517262349738749, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.16466410993500383, 0.5992901052457105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45593085145436457, 0.008531995357508187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19169958361482084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30326683546444433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3106625186139859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9685753197648067 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287216.847948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287216.847948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5915229243032589, 0.40847707569674113 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the early 1980s, most central banks have communicated their operation of monetary policy by setting a policy nominal interest rate. For example, the Fed in the US communicates the stance of monetary policy through its target for the federal funds rate (FFR); the Bank of England communicates the stance of monetary policy through its direct control of the official bank rate. (This in contrast to e.g. Milton Friedman's famous [proposal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman%27s_k-percent_rule) for a rule for the growth rate of the monetary base.) \n\nSince all interest rates in an economy are linked by arbitrage pressure, the Fed by controlling the FFR can affect more general interest rates facing consumers and businesses – such as interest rates on bank deposits. The consensus understanding of monetary policy is that by controlling the current and expected future path of these interest rates, central banks can influence economic activity: GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other metrics.\n\nHowever, it has long been believed that central banks cannot push their policy rates much below zero. This is because of a no-arbitrage relation with physical cash. By holding physical cash, you can guarantee yourself a 0% nominal return: if you have 100 dollars in cash in your wallet today, you can ensure that you'll have 100 nominal dollars in your wallet next year, therefore guaranteeing a 0% nominal return. Thus, if the central bank tried to set its policy rate to cause the nominal bank deposit rate to be (say) -20%, then most everyone would pull their money out of the banking system and hold cash instead, to obtain the higher interest rate. ([This is essentially a form of Gresham's Law](http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-modern-example-of-greshams-law.html): central banks peg physical cash and bank reserves at a 1:1 rate; but the rate of return on the two need not be the same.)\n\nThis zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates however is not a hard limit: because of the costs and inconvenience of storing cash and preventing theft, individuals and firms are willing to accept a somewhat negative nominal interest rate. Indeed, in Europe, the policy rate has been slightly negative since 2014, and this has spilled over to interest rates facing households, such as [mortgage rates in Denmark](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage).\n\nIn the United States, unlike the ECB in the Eurozone, the Fed has been unwilling to target a policy rate even modestly below zero. [Various](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [Fed](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [officials](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-evans-inflatio/feds-evans-sees-no-inflation-risk-and-no-use-for-negative-rates-idUSKBN22N2H5) have argued (among other things) that they lack the [legal authority](https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-35041) to do so; or that benefits would not be large enough to outweigh some perceived risks.\n\nA history of the Federal Funds rate can be found at [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds)" }, { "id": 8947, "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "short_title": "Google Uses Explainable Ads by 2026", "url_title": "Google Uses Explainable Ads by 2026", "slug": "google-uses-explainable-ads-by-2026", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-17T17:03:47.264799Z", "published_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T20:58:13.028407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8947, "title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "created_at": "2021-12-17T17:03:47.264799Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8947, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763519707.634679, "end_time": 1764547199.999, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763519707.634679, "end_time": 1764547199.999, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.865, 0.135 ], "means": [ 0.15535021013112368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.16753160313064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288630.668724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288630.668724, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6782882771083099, 0.3217117228916902 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query." }, { "id": 8946, "title": "Will Facebook implement a feature to explain their news feed algorithm before 2026?", "short_title": "Facebook Uses Explainable News Feed by 2026", "url_title": "Facebook Uses Explainable News Feed by 2026", "slug": "facebook-uses-explainable-news-feed-by-2026", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-17T16:34:35.622137Z", "published_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.760500Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-06T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-06T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8946, "title": "Will Facebook implement a feature to explain their news feed algorithm before 2026?", "created_at": "2021-12-17T16:34:35.622137Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-07T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-06T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-06T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-07T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-06T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook already implements a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”).\n\n***Will Facebook implement a feature to explain news feed recommendations before 2026?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if Facebook implements an explanation feature for all posts in its algorithmically-sorted news feed before January 1, 2026. Facebook must have implemented this option across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats or as an A/B test. Facebook announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for the news feed sorting which indicates decisive charactaristics of the post or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Facebook may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641733232.053418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641733232.053418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5606472019505062 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8945, "title": "Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-12-17T15:52:36.097925Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-22T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.\n\nIn June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Google releases an updated version of chrome which blocks third-party cookies by default before January 1, 2024. This version must be the on the main branch, not a beta version or [chromium](https://www.chromium.org/) version. Resolution may come from credible media reports.\n\nFor this question, “Third party cookie” refers to a cookie set by javascript code that does not belong to the site the user is visiting. This question will resolve if third-party cookies are blocked by default on Chrome; it is irrelevant if Google implements FLoC or any other advertising mechanism by 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8945, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704027671.478983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704027671.478983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10103288326156996 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6613966115845757, 4.413630440091179, 0.5308639099448593, 1.5775688277950939, 0.0, 0.17652900265006702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06327492015001017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.4556769678386524, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2562144657520938, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.15659733955132812, 0.0, 0.09009822749192303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.550128154218035, "coverage": 0.9998704059632708, "baseline_score": -25.83197430176482, "spot_peer_score": -11.515441169114366, "peer_archived_score": 11.550128154218035, "baseline_archived_score": -25.83197430176482, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.515441169114366 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704027671.507344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704027671.507344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987463650333549, 0.0012536349666451257 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cookies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie) are a fundamental web technology which allows web servers to identify individual users, such as showing an email inbox only to an authorized user. However, this same technology has enabled online advertisers to build profiles of user behavior and deliver target advertisements, which privacy advocates like the [Electronic Frontier Foundation](https://www.eff.org/pages/privacy-badger) object to.\n\nIn June 2021, [Google planned](https://blog.google/products/chrome/updated-timeline-privacy-sandbox-milestones/) to replace third party cookies with Google Analytics’ own system: [Federated Learning of Cohorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federated_Learning_of_Cohorts) (FLoC). This will allow advertisers to target users based on behaviour, but will prevent them from tracking users across sites." }, { "id": 8944, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on June 1, 2022?", "url_title": "Boris Johnson UK PM on June 1, 2022?", "slug": "boris-johnson-uk-pm-on-june-1-2022", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-17T06:28:27.784834Z", "published_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.239449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T01:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T01:57:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 369, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8944, "title": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-17T06:28:27.784834Z", "open_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-21T01:52:28.421047Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-21T01:52:28.421047Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T01:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T01:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T01:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\n\nAs of December 2021, Boris Johnson is mired in scandal due to [reportedly attending a number of parties and mass gatherings during the UK's coronavirus lockdowns](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-joined-no-10-party-during-may-2020-lockdown-say-sources). His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\n\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\n\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at 00:00 BST on 1 June 2022, Boris Johnson holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. 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His Conservative Party has lost its once-robust polling lead, and [now trails the opposition Labour Party in the opinion polls.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary)\n\nOn December 16th 2021, the Conservatives lost the Parliamentary constituency of North Shropshire, [which the party had held for nearly 200 years.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59693102)\n\nConservative MPs have [reportedly submitted letters to the 1922 Committee](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/23/letters-no-confidence-boris-johnson-have-submitted-claim-tory/) indicating that Boris Johnson has lost their confidence in his ability to continue to serve as leader of the Conservative Party." }, { "id": 8931, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", "short_title": "Carlsen Plays Next Chess World Championship", "url_title": "Carlsen Plays Next Chess World Championship", "slug": "carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship", "author_id": 116023, "author_username": "ege_erdil", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-15T06:16:41.901739Z", "published_at": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.072322Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-09T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-09T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8931, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", "created_at": "2021-12-15T06:16:41.901739Z", "open_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-23T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-09T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-09T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-09T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Magnus Carlsen, the current and five-time [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship), has recently [hinted](https://chess24.com/en/read/news/carlsen-hints-he-s-played-last-world-championship-match) that the 2021 World Chess Championship may have been the final time he will defend his title against a challenger.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Magnus Carlsen plays and finishes at least one game in the next World Chess Championship match (the first one after the championship held in 2021). 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Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\n\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\n\n>there is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\n\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\n\n>We don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2023, the government of Hungary announces a date to hold a national referendum on a proposal to leave the EU. The date of the referendum may occur at any time, but the announcement must occur before 2023. 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Since then, Hungary has recieved [criticism from EU leaders](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/24/europe/hungary-eu-lgbt-mark-rutte-intl/index.html) for a June 2021 bill which banned LGBT content in Hungarian schools. CNN journalist Luke McGee noted that Article 7, a mechanism for the EU to expel a member state, would be \"very unlikely\" to occur, as it requires the unanimous vote of all other member nations.\n\nFinance Minister Mihály Varga [said in April 2021](https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-leave-the-eu-with-the-start-of-the-next-decade/) that he would vote to remain in the EU if a hypothetical referendum were held, but added\n\n>there is a chance for a new perspective on the issue. Especially if the attacks coming from Brussels become permanent because of our choices of values.\n\nPrime Minister Viktor Orban downplayed the suggestion of leaving the EU, [saying in November 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-will-not-leave-eu-wants-reform-it-pm-orban-says-2021-11-14/),\n\n>We don't want to leave the EU at all, they can't get rid of us so easily [...] We want to keep our sovereignty and we don't want to find ourselves in a united states of Europe." }, { "id": 8898, "title": "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023", "url_title": "Russian Invasion of Ukraine Before 2023", "slug": "russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T23:34:43.365629Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.951198Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9719/date-of-2022-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/)\n\n----\n\nIn early December 2021, Russia has significantly increased the number of troops stationed on its border with Ukraine [to nearly 100,000](https://nyti.ms/3GORIEb), according to the New York Times. In 2014 [Russia invaded and annexed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) the Ukrainian-held Crimean peninsula, and skirmishes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists have continued in the Donbas region of Ukraine ever since, for which Russia has denied involvement. In December 2021 US [President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladmir Putin](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-in-video-call-amid-growing-tensions/2021/12/06/e089e36a-5707-11ec-a219-9b4ae96da3b7_story.html) that If Ukraine were invaded, the US would respond with economic sanctions.\n\n***Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine [already occupied](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (officially or *de facto*) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1645681545.35846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1645681545.35846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9664446287788439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.021879639074856343, 9.413230904773368e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013886076938679544, 0.0, 3.8674618696114566e-05, 3.2435658225573525e-10, 4.110195265158695e-11, 4.752019300783569e-05, 1.2110504385688867e-10, 1.8649845722122665e-08, 3.3531331995722603e-07, 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"created_at": "2021-12-10T23:31:35.193166Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-11T21:36:23.607888Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-11T21:36:23.607888Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": 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In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). 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