Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4480
{ "count": 6391, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4460", "results": [ { "id": 8897, "title": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", "short_title": "Israel-Palestine Peace Talks in 2022", "url_title": "Israel-Palestine Peace Talks in 2022", "slug": "israel-palestine-peace-talks-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T23:31:35.193166Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.536561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 252, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1250, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Trends 2022", "slug": "economist2022", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/image_1.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-05-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-31T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1250, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Trends 2022", "slug": "economist2022", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/image_1.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-05-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-01-31T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8897, "title": "Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T23:31:35.193166Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-11T21:36:23.607888Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-11T21:36:23.607888Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Israeli government has not held direct peace discussions with the Palestinian Authority [since 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%932014_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks). In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). The Israeli government continues to build settlements inside territory of the West Bank, complicating a future two-state solution to the conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2023, there are in-person bilateral or multi-lateral talks between Israel's government and the government of the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority, according to official announcements by both parties", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501314.413795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501314.413795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01223167832327744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 28.290361934574133, 1.3490745660804553, 0.11101933892073318, 0.16995554020983586, 0.048484269016214804, 0.03773785442833621, 0.004881504287477127, 0.0021237544623699837, 0.0004864888306652026, 0.03705137363632913, 0.00018502727719750674, 0.0002897871635975372, 0.00016235910791992307, 0.002960855991726374, 0.026846722002190376, 0.00024884046811423174, 0.0342354098130195, 0.0, 0.10300355537789245, 0.0012495306494835527, 3.651988625287953e-05, 0.014966942012734689, 0.0028415848099923196, 0.0013390854415911949, 0.0013395495941031746, 0.0021695203711219993, 8.987692333097647e-05, 0.002112059951585779, 0.0, 0.0004397969843448988, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1168961612409767e-05, 9.427093065281175e-07, 0.0001302174729808672, 6.134852514049326e-06, 0.0, 1.477708289081588e-06, 0.0, 0.00015021543596276598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003964641057714682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001682162878551139 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.936775957244423, "coverage": 0.9999948707447092, "baseline_score": 87.5713738981189, "spot_peer_score": 26.663114912130368, "peer_archived_score": 9.936775957244423, "baseline_archived_score": 87.5713738981189, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.663114912130368 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672501314.442761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672501314.442761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 252, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 567, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Israeli government has not held direct peace discussions with the Palestinian Authority [since 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%932014_Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_talks). In May 2021 a conflict, mostly centered on the Gaza Strip, [left nearly 300 people dead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis). The Israeli government continues to build settlements inside territory of the West Bank, complicating a future two-state solution to the conflict." }, { "id": 8896, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "short_title": "US/Iran Deal in 2022", "url_title": "US/Iran Deal in 2022", "slug": "usiran-deal-in-2022", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T23:26:18.088556Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.071800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 184, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 443, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:30:01.196955Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:30:01.196955Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8896, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T23:26:18.088556Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-11T22:49:39.523177Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-11T22:49:39.523177Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed)\n\n----\n\n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance). The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before January 1, 2023, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2023, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. the question will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Iranian governments, or credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672506553.338385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672506553.338385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012809737197934087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 37.62494146995504, 1.6679557684568036, 0.7529690151670256, 0.022564269902584817, 0.07704667566510957, 0.048979809032423695, 0.053625699414743135, 0.01969437041560603, 0.004482561709773707, 0.01331806855229865, 0.01620421016623007, 0.0016989402668861845, 0.011498152719589573, 0.03242788406467598, 0.012690143827111618, 0.008253094759132856, 0.0030857035319240876, 0.004456743602286583, 0.000942571507347999, 0.04433339677148403, 0.003623493876678842, 0.02491370980987653, 0.0005611424145721849, 0.0017005196270948922, 0.0751889578732608, 0.0001644639241949416, 0.03742768740002686, 0.00019672628856430417, 0.0, 0.006178377561657057, 0.0031811686838183846, 4.365159409438805e-07, 8.416508348984949e-05, 0.002796031755578477, 0.0012900606454676875, 0.001095558281106537, 2.030961441970449e-05, 0.0014713004836930008, 0.00015001233092510368, 0.0007598088919099954, 0.0003689554406870775, 0.0015459693948219407, 3.817032971832441e-05, 0.0006514851344721062, 0.0005361839752665266, 2.1403950742026134e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002779364692201644, 0.0002551389368479201, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031771657717394954, 3.9364159232229725e-06, 0.0002116677704941975, 0.0, 2.038994754154706e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004542979286029395, 6.46960163883364e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029095864962263315, 0.0003257386282750968, 2.9906958852215012e-05, 0.0, 3.9514096938218264e-05, 2.682127315816495e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00048357958851842815, 6.5428899566409795e-06, 0.00010378147277457795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2021887637957933e-06, 0.004993843467016414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.54123437944396e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.175032298000907, "coverage": 0.9999946661295129, "baseline_score": 66.71760141398212, "spot_peer_score": 10.212050545491012, "peer_archived_score": 16.175032298000907, "baseline_archived_score": 66.71760141398212, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.212050545491012 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672506553.389386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672506553.389386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 443, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1984, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/) (closed)\n\n----\n\n[The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and the P5+1 nations (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States) in 2015 limited the [scope and scale of Iran's nuclear program](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance). The USA unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 and began reimposing economic sanctions against the country. Since then Iran has enriched uranium above limits agreed by the JCPOA, according to the [latest assessment from IAEA](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/iran-offers-less-for-more-as-vienna-talks-stall/). [Negotiations resumed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/iran-nuclear-deal-pulled-back-from-brink-of-collapse-as-talks-resume-in-vienna) in Vienna in December 2021 between Iran and the P5+1 to agree on another deal." }, { "id": 8888, "title": "If Magnus Carlsen competes in the 2023 World Chess Championship, will he win the title?", "short_title": "Magnus Carlsen Wins WCC in 2023", "url_title": "Magnus Carlsen Wins WCC in 2023", "slug": "magnus-carlsen-wins-wcc-in-2023", "author_id": 116812, "author_username": "chipsie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T20:59:31.668826Z", "published_at": "2022-07-18T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.300138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-18T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-09T15:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-02T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-09T15:29:00Z", "open_time": "2022-07-18T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8888, "title": "If Magnus Carlsen competes in the 2023 World Chess Championship, will he win the title?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T20:59:31.668826Z", "open_time": "2022-07-18T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-20T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-09T15:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-09T15:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-02T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-09T15:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/)\n\n---\n\nAt the World Chess Championship 2021 Magnus Carlsen defended his World chess championship title with a [7.5 - 3.5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) win over Ian Nepomniachtchi. This was his fifth straight win. With one more win he will be tied for the [most wins ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship#World_Champions_by_number_of_title_match_victories). As of July 15, 2022 he has a [rating](https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml) of 2864, and is the highest rated player with more than a 50 point advantage over the world number 2 Liren Ding.\n\nIn [December 2021](https://www.chess.com/news/view/magnus-carlsen-defend-world-chess-title-alireza-firouzja), following his victory in the 2021 Championship, Carlsen mentioned that he would be uninterested in competing in the 2023 match unless his opponent was Alireza Firoujza. [FIDE](https://fide.com/news/1787) published their qualification rules in May 2022, stating that if Carlsen declined to play, his position would be given to Ding Liren.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Magnus Carlsen retains the title of World Champion after the 2023 World Chess Championship. If Carlsen does not compete in the Championship, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf the World Chess Championship does not begin before January 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8888, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681316392.261225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681316392.261225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7940103731827121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.5482154774436659, 1.1213353531988088, 0.48911449321829387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.9438376849703078, 0.0, 1.648974130855545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8856998061832572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8696298124804174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0851725996364125 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680805817.8841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680805817.8841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24143642003137766, 0.7585635799686223 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:* \n\n* [Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8931/carlsen-plays-next-chess-world-championship/)\n\n---\n\nAt the World Chess Championship 2021 Magnus Carlsen defended his World chess championship title with a [7.5 - 3.5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) win over Ian Nepomniachtchi. This was his fifth straight win. With one more win he will be tied for the [most wins ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship#World_Champions_by_number_of_title_match_victories). As of July 15, 2022 he has a [rating](https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml) of 2864, and is the highest rated player with more than a 50 point advantage over the world number 2 Liren Ding.\n\nIn [December 2021](https://www.chess.com/news/view/magnus-carlsen-defend-world-chess-title-alireza-firouzja), following his victory in the 2021 Championship, Carlsen mentioned that he would be uninterested in competing in the 2023 match unless his opponent was Alireza Firoujza. [FIDE](https://fide.com/news/1787) published their qualification rules in May 2022, stating that if Carlsen declined to play, his position would be given to Ding Liren." }, { "id": 8885, "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", "short_title": "Conflict Between PRC & ROC (Taiwan) by 2023", "url_title": "Conflict Between PRC & ROC (Taiwan) by 2023", "slug": "conflict-between-prc-roc-taiwan-by-2023", "author_id": 112036, "author_username": "TomL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T20:06:16.463182Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.572715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 107, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", 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"created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2985, "type": "question_series", "name": "2022 Scott Alexander predictions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.680209Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:57.680745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8885, "title": "Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T20:06:16.463182Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-11T22:18:46.318478Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-11T22:18:46.318478Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, 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On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. 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that this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. Through 2020, the hottest year on record is 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if 2022 is the hottest year on record according to [NASA's GISS Surface Temperature Analysis](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). 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"id": 8851, "title": "Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T10:04:13.212173Z", "open_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-15T10:55:04.843581Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-15T10:55:04.843581Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-24T14:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-24T14:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-24T14:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\n\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\n\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\n\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely.\nTherefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a company that focuses primarily on the production and sale of cultivated meat products becomes profitable by generating an overall profit or financial gain within a 365 day period. \n\nWe define \"focuses primarily\" to mean a company must generate at least 80% of its revenue from the sale of cultivated meat-related products, or cultivated meat-related intellectual property. All products produced by the company must include at least 20% cultivated meat grown from animal cells that do not require the slaughter of the animal. Cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in a cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n\nThe profit announcement must be reported through at least three reputable news sources, or through media releases by the company. The company does not need to publish balance sheets if it is private, although in the case the company becomes public before, or during the year it becomes profitable, balance sheets can provide resolution. It is also sufficient if a profit claim is made by a market report or analysis by an organization such as The Good Food Institute", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8851, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672433839.193539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672433839.193539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0694863868879813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.818105219389576, 2.569451063449587, 3.1489736902703926, 1.2964221537103975, 1.6521599991519527, 0.9994696163933497, 0.7446471161645676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004134846009920215, 0.00131304905517034, 0.07377612088755568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01658088192879115, 0.4873984008801747, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000748317355750937, 0.4389797012763335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37192191255964197, 0.6017929126729546, 0.0, 0.02895343543696546, 0.0, 0.0015125570301314578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01801154373442189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019763143819100113, 0.026815793912544603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004760368953111077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506581555305613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814658728309793, 0.0003845499144756756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011172110363428878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025379482175760023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.311842952832768, "coverage": 0.9980454158248282, "baseline_score": 91.72139108842951, "spot_peer_score": 10.663073874516552, "peer_archived_score": 14.311842952832768, "baseline_archived_score": 91.72139108842951, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.663073874516552 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672433839.298229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672433839.298229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cultivated meat is fast approaching the point of scalability. No longer as cost-prohibitive as before, companies like [Eat Just](https://www.ju.st/) can now sell their cultivated meat chicken nuggets in [Singapore for $23](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/18/singapore-restaurant-first-ever-to-serve-eat-just-lab-grown-chicken.html).\n\nAnd it's not just Eat Just in the cultivated meat marketplace. \n\n\"There are now more than [70 cellular meat companies globally](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-12/whole-foods-founder-mackey-invests-in-producer-of-cultured-meat) cultivating meats ranging from chicken to foie gras to kangaroo. Cultured meat could make up as much as 35% of the $1.8 trillion global meat market by 2040, according to an estimate from Kearney.\"\n\nLarge, and growing, investments into these startup companies help spur the possibility of industrial and large-scale production, a step that would dramatically reduce the cost of production, and ultimately the price, for cultivated meat products. The current presence of investors in these companies, and in the industry as a whole, indicates a belief that these companies will be able to operate for a profit at scale in the future. In between 2019 and 2020, total investments in the industry [grew 6x!](https://gfi.org/blog/2020-state-of-the-industry-highlights/)\n\nAlthough no company has secured a commercial-scale facility or supply chain in place, several startup companies in the industry are making headway on achieving such a goal within the next five years. As countries push to follow Singapore's lead in legalizing the commercial sale of cultivated meat products, the possibility of a profitable cultivated meat company becomes increasingly likely.\nTherefore it would be interesting to forecast the future commercial development." }, { "id": 8843, "title": "Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?", "short_title": "Plant-Based Beef Cheaper than Conventional", "url_title": "Plant-Based Beef Cheaper than Conventional", "slug": "plant-based-beef-cheaper-than-conventional", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-10T10:04:12.885133Z", "published_at": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.940287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", 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"economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 926, "type": "tournament", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament", "slug": "alt-protein-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Alt-Meat_Banner_1_9gRW56Q.png", "prize_pool": "1262.50", "start_date": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T02:30:09.120263Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2999, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.380777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:49:04.890534Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2999, "type": "question_series", "name": "Alt-Protein Tournament Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.380777Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:49:04.890534Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8843, "title": "Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-10T10:04:12.885133Z", "open_time": "2021-12-13T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-14T18:39:39.390301Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-14T18:39:39.390301Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-25T14:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-25T14:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-25T14:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \n\nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \n\nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \n\nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the mean price per pound of plant-based meat, averaged from Impossible Food and Beyond Meat, is less than the average price per pound of all uncooked ground beef at any point between December 13, 2021 to April 22, 2023.\n\nThe average price per pound of plant-based meat will be averaged from the retail price per pound of Impossible Foods ground beef ([using their 12 ounce pack](https://impossiblefoods.com/products/burger/12-oz-pack)) and Beyond Meat ground beef ([using their Beef Bulk Pack](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/beyond-beef-six-pack?variant=beef). If these specific products are not available at time of resolution, a comparable bulk-package ground beef product by the same company will be used instead. Prices for each product will be taken from either the manufacturer's direct-to-customer e-commerce website or major US online grocers (such as Walmart or Amazon), whichever is cheapest, excepting sales and special offers.\n\nWe are asking only about companies Beyond and Impossible. If a new company is created (other than Beyond/Impossible) that creates artificial ground beef and is able to bring prices down to answer this question, this question will still resolve negatively. (A year is a short time to start a new company and such a new company may have introductory prices that don't reflect real costs).\n\nIf either Beyond Meat or Impossible foods stops producing plant-based ground beef before the resolution is met, or if either company discontinues their multi-pound ground beef options, admins can select other similar plant-based companies, or company products, that adequately fulfill the brief to resolve the question. Other products, if used to calculated the average price per pound of plant-based ground beef, must be 100% plant-based and listed as a substitute for ground beef.\n\nConventional ground beef prices will be sourced from the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/averageretailfoodandenergyprices_usandmidwest_table.htm) (the \"U.S. city average\" figures shall be used). If these statistics are not available in April 2023, an equivalent statistic will be chosen, preferably published by a government organization.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672433808.683704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672433808.683704, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05003430809373408 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.931750465595602, 2.6138535082679244, 2.864791150745095, 0.318185698376082, 2.88658120509779, 0.0, 0.05990860333615677, 0.004025379543753844, 0.002932907971702584, 0.851022400830743, 0.00797247044402181, 0.003449647572140941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06282132690549008, 0.054167126145610874, 0.5567997521513375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635097447419316, 0.01958911193224546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11960544235882306, 0.30527302874661255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07116812212816047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3203442336521638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003969259310572884, 0.0020580228157463226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005373855860101914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.1119432812330885, "coverage": 0.9999029880330031, "baseline_score": 80.78655801975181, "spot_peer_score": 5.94454970668681, "peer_archived_score": 4.1119432812330885, "baseline_archived_score": 80.78655801975181, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.94454970668681 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672433808.703205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672433808.703205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While once prohibitively high, the cost of plant-based meat [continues to fall](https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive), with Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat's ground 'beef' prices now much closer to par with the average price for ground beef in America. \n\nHowever, with an industry optimized for efficiency over the last hundred years, and subsidized by the government, [animal agriculture is a hard market to beat](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/2/2/22260454/impossible-foods-burger-plant-based-meat). Artificially low prices from failing to provide for negative externalities on animal welfare, worker welfare, and ecological damage allow meat producers and companies to consistently under-price their goods. \n\nAs plant based meat companies grow and are able to produce at scale, costs of production decrease and a virtuous cycle begins where lower prices draw larger numbers of consumers, which in turn allows for more efficiently scaled production. This is what has allowed for the most recent 20% price cut on Impossible Foods ground 'beef,' and leads experts to believe that plant based meat will eventually [become much more cost effective](https://gfi.org/blog/plant-based-meat-will-be-less-expensive/) than animal based products. \n\nAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price for all uncooked ground beef across the U.S cities in February 2021 was $4.556 per pound, a 6% increase from February 2020. In the spring of 2021 the average price of ground plant-based beef from Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat (per their websites) is approximately $12.5 per pound. Therefore we ask about further development of these prices." }, { "id": 8835, "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", "short_title": "Country Caps on US Visas end by 2025", "url_title": "Country Caps on US Visas end by 2025", "slug": "country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025", "author_id": 105656, "author_username": "Jotto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-09T06:26:14.051245Z", "published_at": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.435047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T01:51:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8835, "title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-12-09T06:26:14.051245Z", "open_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-23T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T01:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T02:02:29.328438Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\n\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\n\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \n\nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8835, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696881.023227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696881.023227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05169350372309254 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.453941320868916, 1.2493353044259352, 0.0, 0.30297022896742426, 0.2411136750832804, 0.3359295647495625, 0.030314528419522604, 0.15685721197324565, 1.234391200869081, 0.007369969155267514, 0.6721315503162641, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.3811719471628992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.01810995244806096, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.72156297916634, "peer_score": 7.705453358129545, "coverage": 0.9996620324915226, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996620324915226, "spot_peer_score": 10.288660026339501, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 86.72156297916634, "peer_archived_score": 7.705453358129545, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.288660026339501, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287852.551888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287852.551888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9867220672057998, 0.013277932794200177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\n\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit." }, { "id": 8831, "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", "short_title": "Liz Truss as Tory Leader before 2025", "url_title": "Liz Truss as Tory Leader before 2025", "slug": "liz-truss-as-tory-leader-before-2025", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-08T17:29:33.582807Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.382175Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8831, "title": "Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-12-08T17:29:33.582807Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-13T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-13T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-09-05T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-09-05T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-09-05T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, Truss has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.\n\nAs of December 2021, Truss enjoys a [very high approval rating from members of the Conservative Party.](https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/11/our-cabinet-league-table-johnson-is-back-in-negative-ratings.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Elizabeth Truss holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party on a permanent basis (an interim leadership pending a leadership contest does not count)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662390061.397687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662390061.397687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.949429714490267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0028524662760662633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01193300663266203, 0.0019028639161957515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.975390101846745e-05, 0.0, 0.0009748956867557396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00394597650658512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039676770828342244, 0.0, 0.006004888392346185, 0.00026744187880394025, 0.0005680730021109231, 0.0001229500427680457, 0.0072001956447147325, 0.011914519668706774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003407599273863555, 0.0005057243099870411, 0.0007104699743244969, 0.0004487458165836207, 0.0024757604655346295, 0.006898129674439678, 0.0031847004777561835, 0.00017167937732653064, 0.004387326089193598, 0.0002483847616170433, 0.015794817636913705, 0.011345362779045751, 0.0007913708949302458, 0.0006361834383069938, 0.013810513474079774, 0.005119384602918173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007969292454655235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008556262959252658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007417180089201014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6180706369885577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027673585961183852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02607425644986581, 0.03317330499126041, 0.0, 0.13078499089314366, 0.0, 0.05736238512826304, 0.25978627833660195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024523555813524504, 0.3086797875021846, 0.2523644245665172, 0.031255519298009085, 0.5159042132482339, 0.0, 0.021662782865165105, 1.406073305579764, 0.029436034164519582, 0.10098658911165614, 0.5645523988524488, 1.1422851372710452, 1.0874635090361346, 1.4715928448476068, 0.817200573643973, 0.0, 13.098960782432448 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.571291190752463, "coverage": 0.2399932329058352, "baseline_score": -14.102450758433527, "spot_peer_score": -36.27082205643656, "peer_archived_score": 6.571291190752463, "baseline_archived_score": -14.102450758433527, "spot_peer_archived_score": -36.27082205643656 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1662321198.799287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1662321198.799287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0910171526484238, 0.9089828473515762 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 542, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elizabeth Mary Truss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss), born 26 July 1975, is a British politician serving as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. 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A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die.", "resolution_criteria": "If a Supreme Court justice is nominated and confirmed between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, then this question will resolve positively. If the US Supreme Court is rendered non-existant, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "In order for this question to resolve positive a justice must be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate by the resolution date. A justice being nominated and not confirmed; or being added only via a recess appointment, would not be sufficient to cause this question to resolve positive unless they are also confirmed by the Senate before the resolve date.", "post_id": 8829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649357380.409302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649357380.409302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.982068990317786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0009794353960549545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0836333581389236e-05, 0.0004910571515757398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007873685800849873, 0.0, 0.0004679886670380821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000749134024788397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.144297461635038e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.415232056964675e-05, 0.0010979345961693635, 0.0006259066299000493, 0.0016241062477104964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010883216769238323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002479396351038522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043557705168658194, 0.0005553875425660218, 0.00033099782183814943, 0.000126762065645045, 0.0, 0.012443867171578915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06892901110019387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012065737433445013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017865883696353694, 0.0, 0.08204929912725249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013051657401365055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032270645605514445, 0.14587581281031003, 0.0025745106825191253, 0.007005635210193461, 0.05412593381218225, 0.1389114229925212, 0.5604723722415135, 0.7335803524248583, 1.049993649767562, 1.2959466353621956, 17.48834685281927 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.201811776344506, "coverage": 0.43625119650672095, "baseline_score": 23.45366077219549, "spot_peer_score": -0.028081719178329762, "peer_archived_score": 11.201811776344506, "baseline_archived_score": 23.45366077219549, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.028081719178329762 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1649230641.61559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1649230641.61559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01404611637008446, 0.9859538836299155 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 284, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/)\n\n----\n\nThe Supreme Court has nine members: eight Associate Justices, and one Chief Justice. A position on the court is a lifetime appointment. Justices must be appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Once appointed, justices hold their seat until they are impeached, retire, or die." }, { "id": 8816, "title": "Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?", "short_title": "Facebook Sells Instagram or WhatsApp By 2025", "url_title": "Facebook Sells Instagram or WhatsApp By 2025", "slug": "facebook-sells-instagram-or-whatsapp-by-2025", "author_id": 106883, "author_username": "tb", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-06T09:14:23.005197Z", "published_at": "2022-02-19T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.171492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-19T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:06:00Z", "open_time": "2022-02-19T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8816, "title": "Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-12-06T09:14:23.005197Z", "open_time": "2022-02-19T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-20T23:07:36.994422Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-20T23:07:36.994422Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T08:07:34.303851Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US break up Meta Platforms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9597/date-meta-faces-antitrust-violations/)\n\n----\n\n[Meta Platforms, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_platforms), formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent organization of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other subsidiaries.\n\nMeta [acquired a number of other companies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Meta_Platforms) most notably another social network Instagram (in 2012) and messaging platform WhatsApp (in 2014) since it's inception as \"thefacebook.com\" in 2004. \n\nA number of politicians (e.g. [Elizabeth Warren](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elizabeth-warren-calls-break-facebook-google-amazon-n980911)) consider these acquisitions anticompetitive and call for forced breaking up of Meta.\n\n#### Facebook and FTC\n\nIn December 2020 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a [lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2020/12/ftc-sues-facebook-illegal-monopolization) claiming illegal monopolization. Lawsuit [was dismissed](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.73.0.pdf) by the Judge in June 2021.\n\nIn August 2021 FTC [filed a new lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/08/ftc-alleges-facebook-resorted-illegal-buy-or-bury-scheme-crush) alleging \"Facebook resorted to illegal buy-or-bury scheme to crush competition after string of failed attempts to innovate\". According to new complaint \n\n> Facebook is likely to impose anticompetitive conditions on access to its platform and seek to acquire companies it perceives as potential threats, especially when it next faces “acute competitive pressures from a period of technological transition.\"\n\n\n#### CMA's order to sell Giphy\n\nOn Nov 30, 2021, UK's Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) issued Meta an [order to sell Giphy](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-directs-facebook-to-sell-giphy), a gif-search engine, [acquired for $400M in May 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giphy#Acquisition_by_Facebook). According to CMA's review\n\n> Facebook would be able to increase its already significant market power in relation to other social media platforms by:\n>\n> - denying or limiting other platforms’ access to Giphy GIFs, driving more traffic to Facebook-owned sites – Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram – which already account for 73% of user time spent on social media in the UK, or\n>\n> - changing the terms of access by, for example, requiring TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat to provide more user data in order to access Giphy GIFs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2025, Meta has sold or divested from Instagram or WhatsApp, according to credible media reports. The divestment must be complete before January 1, 2025 in order to resolve positively. Divestment may be for any reason, whether it is a voluntary decision by Meta or due to a government order (such as an Antitrust violation ordered by the [US FTC](https://www.ftc.gov/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704064798.240022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704064798.240022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.049730610367520016 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.25088370426828344, 8.175072874786718, 2.443156752090733, 0.6610383376254996, 0.6028887848170678, 1.8436081013571024, 0.583102662781543, 0.007836395920405472, 0.5446970764266392, 0.23480826545248992, 0.19542855810324122, 0.018842738753081796, 0.0, 0.06978401194451546, 0.09090288086409391, 0.007035290334828157, 0.56328787022561, 0.2688751361964549, 0.029030972137388197, 0.0, 0.018271460244702862, 0.07921035592861965, 0.09746231746313623, 0.0634779910345077, 0.0, 0.022486742455525503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5972356326554167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006299682402418756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002648291037023166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020598484689031187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043444640796242134, 0.0, 0.016104655727578653, 0.0, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02451573508238106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.6360964666805, "peer_score": 21.12968818551594, "coverage": 0.9999098622138747, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999098622138747, "spot_peer_score": 10.861866930431885, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 83.6360964666805, "peer_archived_score": 21.12968818551594, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.861866930431885, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704064798.267225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704064798.267225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983921251138188, 0.0016078748861812384 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US break up Meta Platforms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9597/date-meta-faces-antitrust-violations/)\n\n----\n\n[Meta Platforms, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_platforms), formerly known as Facebook, Inc., is a multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company is the parent organization of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other subsidiaries.\n\nMeta [acquired a number of other companies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitions_by_Meta_Platforms) most notably another social network Instagram (in 2012) and messaging platform WhatsApp (in 2014) since it's inception as \"thefacebook.com\" in 2004. \n\nA number of politicians (e.g. [Elizabeth Warren](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/elizabeth-warren-calls-break-facebook-google-amazon-n980911)) consider these acquisitions anticompetitive and call for forced breaking up of Meta.\n\n#### Facebook and FTC\n\nIn December 2020 US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a [lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2020/12/ftc-sues-facebook-illegal-monopolization) claiming illegal monopolization. Lawsuit [was dismissed](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921/gov.uscourts.dcd.224921.73.0.pdf) by the Judge in June 2021.\n\nIn August 2021 FTC [filed a new lawsuit](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2021/08/ftc-alleges-facebook-resorted-illegal-buy-or-bury-scheme-crush) alleging \"Facebook resorted to illegal buy-or-bury scheme to crush competition after string of failed attempts to innovate\". According to new complaint \n\n> Facebook is likely to impose anticompetitive conditions on access to its platform and seek to acquire companies it perceives as potential threats, especially when it next faces “acute competitive pressures from a period of technological transition.\"\n\n\n#### CMA's order to sell Giphy\n\nOn Nov 30, 2021, UK's Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) issued Meta an [order to sell Giphy](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-directs-facebook-to-sell-giphy), a gif-search engine, [acquired for $400M in May 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giphy#Acquisition_by_Facebook). According to CMA's review\n\n> Facebook would be able to increase its already significant market power in relation to other social media platforms by:\n>\n> - denying or limiting other platforms’ access to Giphy GIFs, driving more traffic to Facebook-owned sites – Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram – which already account for 73% of user time spent on social media in the UK, or\n>\n> - changing the terms of access by, for example, requiring TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat to provide more user data in order to access Giphy GIFs." }, { "id": 8815, "title": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?", "short_title": "\"Moon Cube\" shown non-natural before 2023?", "url_title": "\"Moon Cube\" shown non-natural before 2023?", "slug": "moon-cube-shown-non-natural-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-06T05:14:46.327882Z", "published_at": "2021-12-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.398419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-08T01:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-08T01:27:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8815, "title": "Will the \"Moon Cube\" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-12-06T05:14:46.327882Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-09T02:27:43.384923Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-09T02:27:43.384923Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-08T01:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-08T01:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-08T01:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2021, it was [reported](https://www.space.com/china-yutu-2-moon-rover-cube-shaped-object-photos) that China’s Yutu 2 rover has imaged a \"mystery object\" on the horizon in Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon.\n\nThe object is described as 'cube-shaped,' and was imaged at a distance of around 80 metres (260 ft). [Space.com reports](https://www.space.com/china-yutu-2-moon-rover-cube-shaped-object-photos) that \"Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, the \"Moon Cube\" is generally considered, in the judgment of Metaculus moderators, to be a non-natural object (i.e. a human-made object, or an object appearing to have been created or shaped by intelligent means). If the object is generally considered to be a natural object, such as a rock formation, this question resolves negatively. 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[Space.com reports](https://www.space.com/china-yutu-2-moon-rover-cube-shaped-object-photos) that \"Team scientists have expressed a strong interest in the object and Yutu 2 is now expected to spend the next 2-3 lunar days (2-3 Earth months) traversing lunar regolith and avoiding craters to get a closer look, so updates can be expected.\"" }, { "id": 8805, "title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", "short_title": "Yankees win the 2032 World Series - 6 games", "url_title": "Yankees win the 2032 World Series - 6 games", "slug": "yankees-win-the-2032-world-series-6-games", "author_id": 120609, "author_username": "abrahamrowe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-12-03T16:07:10.003064Z", "published_at": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T01:33:43.451953Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8805, "title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", "created_at": "2021-12-03T16:07:10.003064Z", "open_time": "2021-12-11T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-13T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-13T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-09-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - 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Indirect deaths on earth (e.g. because a downed satellite damages critical healthcare communications) will not count for the purposes of this question. 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:30:01.196955Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8786, "title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?", "created_at": "2021-12-02T09:06:42.088808Z", "open_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-21T23:27:27.095746Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-21T23:27:27.095746Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm\n) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\n\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia’s Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \n\nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO’s credibility and for Europe’s security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Russia annexes any territory belonging (as of December 2021) to the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia before January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports. This will resolve positively if this annexation occurs for any length of time. This question will resolve negatively if Russia does not annex any such territory. For the purposes of this question, \"annexation\" means the posession or control of a territory, by means of force or without the consent of the Baltic nation's government", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8786, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763461749.296838, "end_time": 1764487321.926085, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763461749.296838, "end_time": 1764487321.926085, "forecaster_count": 246, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.13039593833885227 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.646355424250447, 3.335998808063201, 2.9779781304656723, 1.681179038806444, 1.7122691189164936, 3.333285439695928, 1.3502160996516719, 0.8386519550885753, 0.43234229044360856, 0.00546682973970691, 1.1973327076591944, 0.6203666384499174, 0.16986965274031665, 0.0, 0.001056676921381953, 3.8636262180277328, 0.0, 6.346617996032158e-07, 0.01442396818044006, 1.7871338927956908e-06, 0.34007112573037895, 0.12922432331864736, 0.017156361045524305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012389264161192124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007041140597084705, 0.0, 0.6582529138356935, 2.174665213076641e-06, 0.0, 0.9685924935276842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3003507872387575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006843286435764387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6358192655882879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1607378212468286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002932301665144105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20015111770615301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.277730605628358 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287212.032405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 261, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287212.032405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 261, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.997828142342547, 0.0021718576574530084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 711, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO’s forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm\n) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\n\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia’s Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \n\nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO’s credibility and for Europe’s security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally." }, { "id": 8779, "title": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", "short_title": "SpaceX to file for bankruptcy before 2023?", "url_title": "SpaceX to file for bankruptcy before 2023?", "slug": "spacex-to-file-for-bankruptcy-before-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-30T16:01:22.473840Z", "published_at": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.706090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8779, "title": "Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?", "created_at": "2021-11-30T16:01:22.473840Z", "open_time": "2021-12-01T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-01T19:21:43.929311Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-01T19:21:43.929311Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-04-20T05:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp, doing business as [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), is an American aerospace manufacturer, space transportation services and communications corporation headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. SpaceX manufactures the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, several rocket engines, Dragon cargo and crew spacecraft and Starlink communications satellites.\n\nIn November 2021, it was [reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company \"face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/elon-musk-to-spacex-starships-raptor-engine-crisis-risks-bankruptcy.html) amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if SpaceX files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before 1 January 2023. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. The question resolves negatively if no such petition is filed by that date. \n\nOnly petitions filed by Space Exploration Technologies Corp, or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of SpaceX's business (as judged by moderators) as of November 2021, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8779, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650418140.245873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650418140.245873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029881246930665663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 17.63406780027842, 2.5957372561392864, 0.3825985163504046, 0.885600450739036, 0.1867048684454437, 0.09956103931822578, 0.003573784974999305, 0.00012688248276391934, 0.004387331517183269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0266307658308011, 0.0, 1.6201246265917244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.729677257523443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02022247501321974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004691899325181709, 0.0, 0.0, 7.172670065044927e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.1497037180759087, "coverage": 0.999544511413296, "baseline_score": 97.44340140760642, "spot_peer_score": 9.778114074018179, "peer_archived_score": 3.1497037180759087, "baseline_archived_score": 97.44340140760642, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.778114074018179 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1650418140.275569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1650418140.275569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 282, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp, doing business as [SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), is an American aerospace manufacturer, space transportation services and communications corporation headquartered in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars. SpaceX manufactures the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles, several rocket engines, Dragon cargo and crew spacecraft and Starlink communications satellites.\n\nIn November 2021, it was [reported that SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk had warned employees that the company \"face[s] genuine risk of bankruptcy if we cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/elon-musk-to-spacex-starships-raptor-engine-crisis-risks-bankruptcy.html) amid struggles in mass-producing Raptor engines for the company's nascent Starship series of launch vehicles." }, { "id": 8774, "title": "Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Section 230 Revoked by 2025", "url_title": "Section 230 Revoked by 2025", "slug": "section-230-revoked-by-2025", "author_id": 119492, "author_username": "David_Roman", 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"question": { "id": 8774, "title": "Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2021-11-30T15:27:28.280573Z", "open_time": "2022-02-01T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-22T15:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T19:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T19:26:37.283818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T15:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T15:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content. \n\nThe next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.\n\nBacklash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump’s campaign. \n\nTrump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump’s executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).\n\nPolitical discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to January 20, 2025, Section 230 of The Communications Decency Act of 1996 is revoked or modified in any way from its [current text](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Code/Title_47/Chapter_5/Subchapter_II/Part_I/Section_230)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735523624.622778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735523624.622778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03780829667391787 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.197374889989376, 1.7399214644279841, 0.38459879885134624, 0.12443678207034711, 0.4388801709385691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3850944711905501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23039173922989886, 0.0, 0.18044206424386386, 0.2780067488129698, 0.0, 0.16765728249329295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0376241220922931, 0.13725412282874572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1242884729893914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24061686834792928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04795610324820406, 0.12045856624498526, 0.0, 0.09244601710264838, 0.04255302797849524, 0.0, 0.03093145462975998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.005091871219889384, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.76171400877891, "peer_score": 3.8687765413564748, "coverage": 0.9996341700792564, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996341700792564, "spot_peer_score": -10.404636336933683, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "baseline_archived_score": 46.76171400877891, "peer_archived_score": 3.8687765413564748, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.404636336933683, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287816.532277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287816.532277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9827010963245422, 0.017298903675457847 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content. \n\nThe next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.\n\nBacklash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump’s campaign. \n\nTrump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump’s executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).\n\nPolitical discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked." }, { "id": 8771, "title": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Mickey Mouse Protection Act II by 2024", "url_title": "Mickey Mouse Protection Act II by 2024", "slug": 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"economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8771, "title": "Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-30T01:13:53.783522Z", "open_time": "2021-12-04T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-06T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-06T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1998, the U.S. congress passed the [Copyright Term Extension Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act), which extended copyright protection on works that were covered by copyright in 1923, changing the date on which they would enter the public domain to 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, after December 31, 2023, all versions of Mickey Mouse (including his depiction in 1928 in Steamboat Willie) remain under the copyright of the Disney Corporation", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8771, "aggregations": { 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The U.S. has recently lift most restrictions on travel from the [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) in Europe. [According](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/safely-resuming-travel-by-vaccine-requirement-and-rescission-of-travel-restrictions.html) to the U.S. Department of State:\n> On October 25, President Biden announced a Presidential Proclamation titled “A Proclamation on Advancing the Safe Resumption of Global Travel During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” This proclamation, which took effect at 12:01 am Eastern Standard Time on November 8, 2021, ended the travel restrictions under Presidential Proclamations (P.P.) 9984, 9992, 10143, and 10199 as they relate to the suspension of entry into the United States of persons physically present in Brazil, China, India, Iran, Ireland, the Schengen Area, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. In place of these restrictions, the President announced a global vaccination requirement for all adult foreign national travelers. \n\nThere is now concern that travel from the Schengen Area will again be suspended given the [detection](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-set-announce-findings-omicron-cases-among-safrica-travellers-2021-11-28/) of the new [Omicron variant](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron) there.\n\n***[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. issue a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?***\n\nThis resolves positively if, on or before 15 December 2021, a presidential proclamation is made that suspends travel from the entire Schengen Area **or** at least 20/26 of Schengen Area countries. \n\nA suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not need apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639152938.562106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639152938.562106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.08263746434633905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1734366742203346, 1.2185535055960066, 0.30325326606555914, 1.2006915329120103, 1.856829521683623, 0.07626447167401151, 4.013886466666648, 1.4736953295587822, 0.5654667606195058, 1.938251247409168, 0.014128607803813408, 0.6905285880117027, 0.0, 0.11083301965526829, 0.6170255016963782, 0.03518293254400627, 0.06364779574813786, 0.0, 0.020567462092912898, 0.05418580979533891, 0.0, 0.2699770170287534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42946755168883183, 0.0, 0.004297018526623552, 0.1791779319109747, 0.0, 0.04466524624857002, 0.2530319812175794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037302369458043724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006599580203028017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008627503950090944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.203058174958471, "coverage": 0.9986234605534787, "baseline_score": 66.955642926027, "spot_peer_score": 11.372445816008307, "peer_archived_score": 7.203058174958471, "baseline_archived_score": 66.955642926027, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.372445816008307 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639152938.587088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639152938.587088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9719150466821278, 0.02808495331787219 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
