Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4500
{ "count": 6391, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4520", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4480", "results": [ { "id": 8766, "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", "short_title": "Omicron variant less deadly than Delta", "url_title": "Omicron variant less deadly than Delta", "slug": "omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-29T13:26:42.368919Z", "published_at": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.150506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 439, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8766, "title": "Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?", "created_at": "2021-11-29T13:26:42.368919Z", "open_time": "2021-11-29T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-29T23:24:17.753123Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-29T23:24:17.753123Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 *peer-reviewed* published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is **less** than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \n\nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \n\nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant decrease (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance decrease, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant decrease.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8757/omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be **more** lethal than Delta", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643734356.299822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643734356.299822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9522536488706385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5973626159968516e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.623282546339043e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 5.18883659693419e-07, 0.0, 0.0004769243145809021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6143894312907505e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.161795220675105e-09, 0.0, 3.8241539390354506e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 4.9109113216751436e-08, 0.0, 0.0008903455639821767, 0.0, 4.3420817725240455e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6927867247692052e-05, 2.78379251167136e-07, 3.208388580332441e-07, 0.0, 1.9254732098999307e-06, 0.0008273220477073107, 3.4578431756732605e-06, 3.475835206943375e-06, 3.221372725974328e-06, 4.151123898168049e-05, 0.0003234185235030018, 1.4540315802395447e-07, 1.1166758164140202e-05, 0.0006660504478493023, 4.8013304117982e-07, 0.005518676708840724, 1.866027967091577e-05, 0.06994401824530336, 3.149315646614026e-07, 0.5073928206608391, 0.5036361512124782, 0.3531541446815699, 0.1855577503555229, 0.07031147707429973, 0.18924818175138539, 0.3895528549404109, 1.291698914701316e-05, 0.041783374644495094, 0.3900992112442503, 8.757525085410355e-08, 1.453942697635916, 6.96216061384018e-08, 0.0007754186867416733, 0.9572376996225705, 0.004720596311303935, 2.390717662387199, 0.1135105119468392, 0.6974141048277652, 0.7921902698415878, 1.3463838739978524, 3.2700734721970113, 1.0407167365281258, 2.094964568040902, 3.6127626539967315, 19.921731978312977 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.213830916592162, "coverage": 0.9998983143696775, "baseline_score": 66.42943574773246, "spot_peer_score": 14.195333717321523, "peer_archived_score": 12.213830916592162, "baseline_archived_score": 66.42943574773246, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.195333717321523 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643734356.356509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643734356.356509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 439, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.044648052354765766, 0.9553519476452342 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 43, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1363, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively." }, { "id": 8758, "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "short_title": "Will a variant be classified a VOHC by CDC", "url_title": "Will a variant be classified a VOHC by CDC", "slug": "will-a-variant-be-classified-a-vohc-by-cdc", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-27T14:24:28.529958Z", "published_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.491824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8758, "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-27T14:24:28.529958Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-27T18:06:20.671840Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-27T18:06:20.671840Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-01T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \n\nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \n\nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n> \n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets\n- Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations\n\nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if, before 1 March 2022, a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).", "fine_print": "Thank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input.", "post_id": 8758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643733957.008641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643733957.008641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11702329594951597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0773679896596056, 0.19882764110903303, 0.7353211255741836, 0.03269318137797285, 1.1797216550635692, 0.0, 0.0, 2.020929914275178, 1.128974334067332, 2.820336139728757, 0.537327422693546, 0.5052877548032663, 0.4141969096045371, 2.562756639013444, 1.1467757766038686, 0.0795076679953931, 0.28565788930474334, 0.0, 0.0, 1.065626185698181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014035409334259398, 0.11473256392971992, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.01714357388246597, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.0, 0.014656061287290092, 0.010228516799093708, 0.35306151093949006, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.33351157210271404, 0.0922898227035347, 0.0186740616394588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.01552736403589142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02994786805522453, 0.0, 0.005030841343722017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004654236629663802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.736314214168114, "coverage": 0.9999816483766137, "baseline_score": 45.7748399773198, "spot_peer_score": 11.157866275230322, "peer_archived_score": 17.736314214168114, "baseline_archived_score": 45.7748399773198, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.157866275230322 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643733957.05617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1643733957.05617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9497362348860711, 0.05026376511392892 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \n\nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \n\nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n> \n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets\n- Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations\n\nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC." }, { "id": 8757, "title": "Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?", "short_title": "Omicron variant deadlier than Delta", "url_title": "Omicron variant deadlier than Delta", "slug": "omicron-variant-deadlier-than-delta", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:26:48.586529Z", "published_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.950835Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-08T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 348, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nThere is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positive if, out of the first 4 *peer-reviewed* published studies that provide estimates of the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron variant, at least 3 indicate that the odds/risk/hazard of death due to infection with the Omicron is **greater** than that due to infection with the Delta variant. \n\nThe relevant studies must be rigorous and must make direct comparisons between infections with Omicron in a group and infections with Delta in a similar group. Moreover, at the very least, the variables of age and comorbidities should be controlled for. \n\nAt least 3 of the first 4 relevant studies that meet the above criteria should specify that they've found a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in Omicron's lethality relative to Delta. Otherwise, this resolves negatively —e.g. negative resolution will occur if only 2 clearly state they've found a statistically significance increase, 1 has mixed results, and 1 says that they did not find a statistically significant increase.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8766/omicron-variant-less-deadly-than-delta/) question on whether the Omicron variant will be **less** lethal than Delta.", "fine_print": "Thank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input.", "post_id": 8757, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1643733972.951379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 347, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } 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SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nThere is concern that Omicron might be deadlier than Delta." }, { "id": 8754, "title": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?", "short_title": "US/UK/EU approve Omicron-specific booster", "url_title": "US/UK/EU approve Omicron-specific booster", "slug": "usukeu-approve-omicron-specific-booster", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:11:20.383760Z", "published_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.348345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-15T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 229, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa announced that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nSome have [suggested](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820) that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its [unique constellation of mutations](https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923) may result in [lower](https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085) vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. \nVaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have [said](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938) they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is [advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate](https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Omicron-Containing-Bivalent-Booster-Candidate-mRNA-1273.214-Demonstrates-Superior-Antibody-Response-Against-Omicron/default.aspx).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve on the basis of whether the U.S. [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements), UK [MHRA](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), or EU [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news-events) authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023. \n\nAn Omicron-specific booster must be specially formulated to specifically target the genetic sequence of the Omicron variant.\n\nThe booster dose formulation can also include formulations that target other variants (e.g., Delta) so long as the Omicron variant is specifically targeted as well. \n\nMulti-valent booster candidates, such those [being developed by Moderna](https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Omicron-Containing-Bivalent-Booster-Candidate-mRNA-1273.214-Demonstrates-Superior-Antibody-Response-Against-Omicron/default.aspx), would count toward positive resolution so long as they target at least 8 spike mutations that Omicron has accrued relative to the original Wuhan-Hu-1 sequence. In the case of Moderna, this would mean that: the mRNA-1273.211 multi-valent candidate that targets 4 of Omicron's spike mutations *would not* count toward positive resolution, while the mRNA-1273.213 multi-valent candidate that targets 8 of Omicron's spike mutations *would* count.", "fine_print": "Thank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input.", "post_id": 8754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1660573557.313747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1660573557.313747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 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B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nSome have [suggested](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820) that SARS-CoV-2 vaccines may have to be updated to target the Omicron variant in particular, given that its [unique constellation of mutations](https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923) may result in [lower](https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1464005692251992085) vaccine- and infection-elicited antibody neutralization. \nVaccine producers including Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen, and Novavax have [said](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1464225637590310938) they are testing their vaccines against the new variant. Moderna has announced it is [advancing an Omicron-specific booster candidate](https://investors.modernatx.com/news/news-details/2022/Moderna-Announces-Omicron-Containing-Bivalent-Booster-Candidate-mRNA-1273.214-Demonstrates-Superior-Antibody-Response-Against-Omicron/default.aspx)." }, { "id": 8752, "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", "short_title": "Will Omicron Classified as VOHC by 2023", "url_title": "Will Omicron Classified as VOHC by 2023", "slug": "will-omicron-classified-as-vohc-by-2023", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:05:23.549681Z", "published_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.593316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8752, "title": "Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:05:23.549681Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-27T17:08:35.616287Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-27T17:08:35.616287Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \n\nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \n\nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n> \n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets\n- Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations\n\nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if, before 2023, the Omicron variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html).", "fine_print": "Thank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input.", "post_id": 8752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672499131.572481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672499131.572481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015445259677754692 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 19.219098763560414, 0.8079953721836357, 0.3810663129573362, 0.0034934892766462, 0.026582902910465975, 0.07950156711902036, 0.02652620084790118, 0.0, 0.36128854076848976, 0.013124922746246319, 0.0, 0.011584886728379377, 0.009274756554986085, 0.0, 0.005803497673608363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10491549483208375, 0.0029190912586403465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002883225212909778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007010502008277609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013720265913265303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002868841670032651, 0.016006859614912942, 0.0057320331380579116, 0.0005146357895676243, 0.0014768010611456352, 0.0018113035510220678, 0.001707670251765405, 0.0024745159798615825, 0.0021839116706358352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001999838232602956, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.0008493257047191687, 0.0, 0.002203835392502228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.898250119390333e-05, 0.0011931805525433913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001720101299339614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021842427136271134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.31751817584021e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.33198383060299, "coverage": 0.9999966045088284, "baseline_score": 80.11786344500858, "spot_peer_score": 12.451703549213757, "peer_archived_score": 27.33198383060299, "baseline_archived_score": 80.11786344500858, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.451703549213757 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672499131.626182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672499131.626182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 25 November, South Africa [announced](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/recording-briefing-on-covid-19-and-vaccination-programme-developments-25-november-2021/) that it was tracking a new variant, B.1.1.529/Omicron, and shared the following:\n>\n- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage B.1.1.529) with high number of\nmutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and\ntransmissibility\n- B.1.1.529 genomes produced from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA\n(n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=1, traveler from SA)\n- B.1.1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome\nsequencing) \n- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that B.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in\nGauteng and may already be present in most provinces\n- Mutation profile predicted to give significant immune evasion and enhanced\ntransmissibility \n\nSee also [these](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) [three](https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf) [assessments](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) by the UK HSA, Belgian NRL, and WHO respectively.\n\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html): variants being monitored, variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence. \n\nOf these, variant of high consequence (VOHC) is the most severe classification. A VOHC is a variant that [“has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fvariant-info.html) \n\nMoreover, a VOHC might have the following attributes:\n> \n- Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets\n- Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease\n- Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics\n- More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations\n\nTo date, no SARS-CoV-2 variant has been classified as a VOHC." }, { "id": 8751, "title": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this be due to the spread of the Omicron variant?", "short_title": "UK \"Plan C\" measures announced b/c of Omicron", "url_title": "UK \"Plan C\" measures announced b/c of Omicron", "slug": "uk-plan-c-measures-announced-bc-of-omicron", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:02:27.271448Z", "published_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.151652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T16:33:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8751, "title": "If implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” are announced in the UK before 1 February 2022, will this be due to the spread of the Omicron variant?", "created_at": "2021-11-27T00:02:27.271448Z", "open_time": "2021-11-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-28T01:41:15.851426Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-28T01:41:15.851426Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T16:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-02-01T16:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-02-01T16:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\n\n[Media](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/covid-measures-plan-c-discussed-government-official-mps) [reports](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-coronavirus-plan-c-proposed-department-of-health-science-chief-reveals-12445084) indicate there also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df) might include a ban on inter-household mixing.\n\nThere is ongoing discussion as to whether stringent measures, including those of “Plan C,” might be taken soon in response to spread of the [Omicron variant](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern). On 26 November, UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid [said](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) that this new variant is a [“huge international concern”](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59428398) and that the UK must [“move quickly and at the earliest possible moment”](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59428398). \n\n[According](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) to the UK Health Security Agency, no cases of Omicron have been detected in the UK as of 26 November. Moreover, the UK has [imposed travel restrictions](https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52544307) on several countries in southern Africa. However, Professor John Edmunds, a member of the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, [suggests](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-59426277) that Omicron will eventually reach the UK and that the government should be prepared to take extra action when it does.", "resolution_criteria": "This is a conditional question that will only resolve unambiguously in the event the UK Government [announces](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street), before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. Accordingly, [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8455/uk-planC-covid-measures-announced-before-feb/) Metaculus question needs to resolve positively.\n\nConditional on the above, for this question to resolve positively the spread of Omicron in the UK must be cited as the main reason for implementation of stringent public health measures. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\n\nFor example, a statement like the [lockdown announcement](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19-december-2020) on 5 January 2021 would result in a positive resolution. This announcement stated that spread of the B.1.1.7/Alpha variant was the main reason a lockdown was needed:\n> The Prime Minister praised everyone’s collective efforts to get this virus under control, emphasising the great national effort to fight Covid. Despite this, the pressure on our NHS, rapidly rising infection rates and hospital admissions due to the new variant mean that another national lockdown is sadly necessary.\n\nIf there is significant dispute as to whether the spread of Omicron is cited as the main reason for introduction of new stringent public health measures, this will resolve ambiguous.", "fine_print": "Thank you to [Nathan Young](https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung), [Clay Graubard](https://twitter.com/ClayGraubard), [David Manheim](https://twitter.com/davidmanheim), [Philipp Schoenegger](https://twitter.com/schoeneggerphil), and [Edward Saperia](https://twitter.com/edsaperia) for their question suggestions and input.", "post_id": 8751, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641054806.523041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641054806.523041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8577954641647042 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003933706607008041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038098485368474766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0098042150506422, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5376037185099556, 0.003276927759296195, 1.2095841716269868, 0.0, 0.2937072262777226, 0.00742799989072429, 0.0419847911130734, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 1.8976641662319838, 0.6509344506122218, 0.0, 0.914709696667547, 0.31490076724293836, 0.3929904795586804, 0.41976318158807036, 1.8906008444673446, 0.7408033646377059, 0.031191153071574097, 1.9176113323663873, 0.16379137886358097, 1.0970389088392714, 0.16545902886772046, 0.0, 0.7155968279712261, 0.2737520652807607, 0.0, 0.48110896874806475, 1.0064094906371805 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1641054806.551467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1641054806.551467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11222765535952883, 0.8877723446404712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\n\n[Media](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/covid-measures-plan-c-discussed-government-official-mps) [reports](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-coronavirus-plan-c-proposed-department-of-health-science-chief-reveals-12445084) indicate there also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df) might include a ban on inter-household mixing.\n\nThere is ongoing discussion as to whether stringent measures, including those of “Plan C,” might be taken soon in response to spread of the [Omicron variant](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern). On 26 November, UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid [said](https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern) that this new variant is a [“huge international concern”](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59428398) and that the UK must [“move quickly and at the earliest possible moment”](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59428398). \n\n[According](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1036501/Technical_Briefing_29_published_26_November_2021.pdf) to the UK Health Security Agency, no cases of Omicron have been detected in the UK as of 26 November. Moreover, the UK has [imposed travel restrictions](https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52544307) on several countries in southern Africa. However, Professor John Edmunds, a member of the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, [suggests](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-59426277) that Omicron will eventually reach the UK and that the government should be prepared to take extra action when it does." }, { "id": 8750, "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", "short_title": "Will space debris kill an astronaut by 2025?", "url_title": "Will space debris kill an astronaut by 2025?", "slug": "will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025", "author_id": 119050, "author_username": "crule", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-26T14:55:00.157528Z", "published_at": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.847604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", 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"default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8750, "title": "Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?", "created_at": "2021-11-26T14:55:00.157528Z", "open_time": "2021-12-02T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-03T11:18:26.678497Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-03T11:18:26.678497Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:09:33.513328Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T14:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\n\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\n\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\n\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a mainstream news source or wire service (AP, New York Times, etc.) report that space debris has killed at least one human by January 1, 2025. \n\nDirect death in space (human-occupied spacecraft) will count towards positive resolution. Direct death on earth from re-entering debris (e.g. hitting someone on the head) will not count. If an astronaut dies on earth from space-debris injuries sustained in space, the question will resolve positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704100675.095813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704100675.095813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023460988409777422 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3983246236994313, 12.84740566874807, 1.925033684835391, 0.2425079262627247, 0.024541670301169563, 0.5521169263956998, 0.10685452205386207, 0.0, 0.06431268068364275, 0.02112415012802104, 0.03061626278352418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054150527432402465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39481139552300654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015781900002267545, 0.0, 0.0016495806443394484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03992756526622757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021832922439402977, 0.060784385723977465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.58053434209589, "peer_score": 7.216187919534387, "coverage": 0.9998710763729938, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998710763729938, "spot_peer_score": 9.851196913051284, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 95.58053434209589, "peer_archived_score": 7.216187919534387, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.851196913051284, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704100675.126609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704100675.126609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Space debris is accumulating in earth's orbit, which is a problem because, \"[due to its very high speed in orbit—even relatively small pieces can damage or destroy satellites in a collision.](https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/debris-in-brief-factsheet.pdf)\"\n\nAs an example, Russia's November 2021 anti-satellite test created over a thousand pieces of debris, a cloud of which came close to the International Space Station, \"forcing astronauts to take shelter for hours in a pair of spacecraft capable of returning them to Earth\" [according to the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/science/russia-anti-satellite-missile-test-debris.html).\n\nEvasive manoeuvres can help, but [according to NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html), we can track discrete objects >5cm, but debris shields are effective only for objects <1cm. This means there are objects between 1 cm and 5cm that can severely damage human spacecraft, but cannot be tracked.\n\nSpace debris could kill humans in three ways. First, space debris could damage human spacecraft and kill one or more of its occupants. Second, re-entering space debris could kill humans on earth. Third, space debris could take out satellites linked to critical infrastructures and thereby cause death on earth via failure of such infrastructure. This question only focuses on the first risk — i.e. astronaut fatalities in space." }, { "id": 8745, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", "short_title": "GC Caused by Natural Pandemic If GC Occurs", "url_title": "GC Caused by Natural Pandemic If GC Occurs", "slug": "gc-caused-by-natural-pandemic-if-gc-occurs", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-25T16:53:47.721937Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:59:48.025844Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8745, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", "created_at": "2021-11-25T16:53:47.721937Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T14:48:10.702378Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T14:48:10.702378Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \n\nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\n\n> Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.\n\n***If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\n\n-------\n<small>\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n</small>", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758491977.773114, "end_time": 1884400452.579293, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758491977.773114, "end_time": 1884400452.579293, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.15113698920801677 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5213145590093119, 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1728287801.870398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287801.870398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9746562331564292, 0.025343766843570793 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 183, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8740, "title": "By 2032, will the California Constitution be amended to restrict the state's authority to set zoning policy?", "short_title": "CA Housing Policy Restricted By 2032", "url_title": "CA Housing Policy Restricted By 2032", "slug": "ca-housing-policy-restricted-by-2032", "author_id": 120401, "author_username": "JohnKroencke", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-25T09:54:04.079581Z", "published_at": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T22:10:33.667274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8740, "title": "By 2032, will the California Constitution be amended to restrict the state's authority to set zoning policy?", "created_at": "2021-11-25T09:54:04.079581Z", "open_time": "2022-02-03T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-05T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-05T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-01-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recent [YIMBY](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YIMBY) planning reforms in California have led to increased outrage by NIMBYs. A [recent effort](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Local_Land_Use_and_Zoning_to_Supersede_Conflicting_State_Law_Initiative_(2022)) seeks to put a [constitutional limit on state involvement in local housing decisions](https://easyreadernews.com/redondo-beach-mayor-bill-brand-drafts-initiative-to-block-sb-single-family-zoning-bill/). In California, ballot initiatives which receive enough signatures can go directly to the voters. This initiative would need 1.5 million signatures by May 2022 to go on the November 2022 ballot.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2032, any amendment to the California Constitution has been passed which limit's California's state authority to set zoning policy. This question may resolve upon the success of [initiative #21-0016](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Local_Land_Use_and_Zoning_to_Supersede_Conflicting_State_Law_Initiative_(2022)) or any future ballot initiative or legislation which limits California's state authority to set zoning policy. This legislation must take effect before January 1, 2032 to resolve this question positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8740, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762082037.45883, "end_time": 1768942522.675394, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762082037.45883, "end_time": 1768942522.675394, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.38492606179026984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1518841877069168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5450278037100404, 0.0, 1.0641143738879215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.3379902603656224, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.3678794411714424, 0.608122956184572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.695620244536761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19726402141886368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288569.694533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288569.694533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7244607460825416, 0.2755392539174583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recent [YIMBY](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YIMBY) planning reforms in California have led to increased outrage by NIMBYs. A [recent effort](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Local_Land_Use_and_Zoning_to_Supersede_Conflicting_State_Law_Initiative_(2022)) seeks to put a [constitutional limit on state involvement in local housing decisions](https://easyreadernews.com/redondo-beach-mayor-bill-brand-drafts-initiative-to-block-sb-single-family-zoning-bill/). In California, ballot initiatives which receive enough signatures can go directly to the voters. This initiative would need 1.5 million signatures by May 2022 to go on the November 2022 ballot." }, { "id": 8729, "title": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", "short_title": "Alphabet Rank at CASP15 for Protein Folding?", "url_title": "Alphabet Rank at CASP15 for Protein Folding?", "slug": "alphabet-rank-at-casp15-for-protein-folding", "author_id": 118978, "author_username": "dmunro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-23T02:12:02.044951Z", "published_at": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.432061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-13T13:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-13T13:38:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 127, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:58:47.739066Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8729, "title": "Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-23T02:12:02.044951Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-10T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-13T13:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-13T13:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-13T13:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-31T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction](https://predictioncenter.org/), or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.\n\nAlphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/blog) to focus on the drug discovery process.\n\nCASP15 is [currently scheduled](https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/index.cgi) to take place April-August 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if an algorithm developed by a subsidiary of Alphabet (such as DeepMind or Isomorphic Labs) wins the CASP15 group rankings for Regular Targets, or whichever name is given to the general/overall category. The preferred source will be the [official CASP website](https://predictioncenter.org/). If there is no comparable \"general category\" compared to CASP14 and prior, or if there is no singular winner, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if the competition is held but no Alphabet company competes, or they don't win. If CASP15 is not held in 2022, or overall rankings are not decided, this resolves as ambiguous. This question will close retroactively 24 hours before the contest begins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8729, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667171569.32423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667171569.32423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8546803054267429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0025340789343860424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7298060102915309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.426244767026915e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.210574311323441e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012472028256494225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158340905255293, 0.0, 0.0007877560919778222, 0.0, 0.5551168497858088, 0.0006965105138581336, 0.0018933118731512366, 0.0, 5.247287926814531e-05, 0.16820115088952578, 0.49662390224672953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2755722750830123, 0.39810514471340347, 0.9517577927968838, 0.0, 0.1867910581406498, 0.0009972303953893703, 0.0, 2.6227372238077455, 0.038641615582139736, 0.02081595522573615, 0.0013892212928943806, 0.7135064525470045, 0.9837565353674396, 0.0, 0.0060662560094072405, 0.7253321558487473, 0.14340985684034882, 3.197876027885374, 0.5227057073791461, 2.4839051093867672, 0.35970288648016946, 0.7434773167966301, 1.6520704156760981, 0.5096220209046892, 0.9551643157514998, 0.13911375747169055, 1.4527106849637974 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.622948372523787, "coverage": 0.9994715178439539, "baseline_score": -140.6929251316697, "spot_peer_score": 11.550378799604093, "peer_archived_score": -1.622948372523787, "baseline_archived_score": -140.6929251316697, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.550378799604093 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667171569.347812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667171569.347812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1247107466857873, 0.8752892533142127 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 274, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction](https://predictioncenter.org/), or CASP, is held every two years. DeepMind, a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, made a splash at CASP13 in 2018 with their winning AlphaFold model. DeepMind returned with AlphaFold2 at CASP14 in 2020 with an even bigger improvement.\n\nAlphabet looks eager to continue applying AI to biochemical problems, given the recent introduction of a new subsidiary company called [Isomorphic Labs](https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/blog) to focus on the drug discovery process.\n\nCASP15 is [currently scheduled](https://predictioncenter.org/casp15/index.cgi) to take place April-August 2022." }, { "id": 8728, "title": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", "short_title": "Additional COVID Boosters Authorized by 2023", "url_title": "Additional COVID Boosters Authorized by 2023", "slug": "additional-covid-boosters-authorized-by-2023", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:17:29.942613Z", "published_at": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.689585Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-08-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8728, "title": "Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:17:29.942613Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-10T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-10T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-08-31T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-08-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-08-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nOn 19 November 2021, FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n\n[Some](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/) have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might [necessitate seasonal yearly boosters](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297981279617027).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if FDA authorizes additional booster doses for the **entire** U.S. adult population — this would mean a third dose for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and fourth doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8728, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667251988.601304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667251988.601304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.731411775359409 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.806208236854164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0642699091731567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02333487808038302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6287965968669158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8492083013869651, 0.0, 0.26540318263127977, 0.4788349039431138, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.8668714513010786, 0.0, 0.2868776380817602, 0.1533679428866179, 2.0995545266674123, 0.2893506753269389, 0.06639265352365246, 1.000182674161401, 0.4256775237530781, 0.5127619511096474, 0.9313987301006592, 0.0743529554125065, 0.19107924624737863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5983201576784314, 0.6801970974183082, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.2223942771812562, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027134041465974392 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.9167117879404753, "coverage": 0.6852012512098274, "baseline_score": 38.5745803748346, "spot_peer_score": 13.49030800118068, "peer_archived_score": 0.9167117879404753, "baseline_archived_score": 38.5745803748346, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.49030800118068 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1661845304.293627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1661845304.293627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19884869710578046, 0.8011513028942195 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nOn 19 November 2021, FDA [authorized](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-expands-eligibility-covid-19-vaccine-boosters) COVID-19 boosters for all U.S. adults — these boosters constitute second doses for those who received the Janssen vaccine as their primary vaccination, and they constitute third doses for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines as their primary vaccination.\n\n[Some](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/) have suggested that COVID-19 is now transitioning to a seasonal endemic state and that this might [necessitate seasonal yearly boosters](https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297981279617027)." }, { "id": 8726, "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", "short_title": "Flu Season Worse Than 09-10 by 2032", "url_title": "Flu Season Worse Than 09-10 by 2032", "slug": "flu-season-worse-than-09-10-by-2032", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:14:08.738903Z", "published_at": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.438758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8726, "title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:14:08.738903Z", "open_time": "2021-12-08T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-10T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-10T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nIn the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\n\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8726, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745025340.283771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.354 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745025340.283771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.354 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.646, 0.354 ], "means": [ 0.3969920623958721 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.812439569725578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7892529026759081, 0.1836394386094319, 0.6792304428968579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2901350937285243, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.378562867757639, 0.26255575529169206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.403814983232191, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0646131558445073 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288168.714867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288168.714867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7802579923808475, 0.21974200761915247 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nIn the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\n\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season." }, { "id": 8725, "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", "short_title": "COVID Summer Peak exceeds Winter Peak by 2027", "url_title": "COVID Summer Peak exceeds Winter Peak by 2027", "slug": "covid-summer-peak-exceeds-winter-peak-by-2027", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:12:33.634638Z", "published_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.305159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2987, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe: Round 3", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-11-24T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:20.783991Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.761543Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 940, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe Tournament", "slug": "vdh", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Keeping_Virginia_Safe_Banner_XHpMAOp.png", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2022-12-31T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school.\r\n\r\nThe first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!\r\n\r\nDetails regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer. \r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:18.873147Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8725, "title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", "created_at": "2021-11-22T23:12:33.634638Z", "open_time": "2021-12-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nVDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\n\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\n\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) **or** COVID-like illness [(“Weekly CLI visits (counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.\n\nThis applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763498846.66385, "end_time": 1764443366.387459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763498846.66385, "end_time": 1764443366.387459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4291716161361451 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1557503318392395, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287170.425555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287170.425555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5723700807687903, 0.42762991923120974 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<small>Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.</small>\n\nVDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\n\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\n\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter’s peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes." }, { "id": 8677, "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", "short_title": "SMR Nuclear >1% of Any Nation's Energy 2030", "url_title": "SMR Nuclear >1% of Any Nation's Energy 2030", "slug": "smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-19T18:51:37.973939Z", "published_at": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T08:36:55.141672Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8677, "title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-19T18:51:37.973939Z", "open_time": "2021-12-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-06T18:30:10.570123Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-06T18:30:10.570123Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-11T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763562352.579266, "end_time": 1764525824.815024, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763562352.579266, "end_time": 1764525824.815024, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20399484619554145 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.7319962931953772, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0773927070098371, 1.0, 0.7800991750591255, 1.2900065564532592, 0.0, 0.8952453263055051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.049680819655039385, 0.848390712889754, 0.16438976427023788, 0.37974261668515136, 0.3868333174288254, 0.0, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.2788247026162721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289069.346974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289069.346974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.935769462670469, 0.06423053732953103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 296, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\"." }, { "id": 8675, "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", "short_title": "Space Debris Causes Fatality before 2035", "url_title": "Space Debris Causes Fatality before 2035", "slug": "space-debris-causes-fatality-before-2035", "author_id": 109744, "author_username": "Kostas", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-19T10:21:54.089509Z", "published_at": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:17:53.006545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8675, "title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", "created_at": "2021-11-19T10:21:54.089509Z", "open_time": "2021-12-23T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\n\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8675, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763708590.728478, "end_time": 1764098584.624839, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763708590.728478, "end_time": 1764098584.624839, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10678391499785073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.21485051529357102, 0.045661515517217234, 2.565823428858154, 0.0, 1.1038171467166389, 1.2651200297027236, 0.5631988295542534, 0.10228230303850093, 0.0, 0.9378225283339312, 0.6172156808983614, 0.5175953131017844, 1.7868442614883537, 0.24555224382070426, 0.0, 0.17129911175002635, 0.8031567520806597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011315574202943868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0391307538660947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20042950017961592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09043497114579632 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286944.866424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286944.866424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9730102872808023, 0.026989712719197728 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\n\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety." }, { "id": 8673, "title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "short_title": "Quad/5eyes diplo. boycott of Beijing Olympics", "url_title": "Quad/5eyes diplo. boycott of Beijing Olympics", "slug": "quad5eyes-diplo-boycott-of-beijing-olympics", "author_id": 117822, "author_username": "ClayGraubard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-19T08:34:50.987666Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.679252Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8673, "title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "created_at": "2021-11-19T08:34:50.987666Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-22T12:21:39.127849Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-22T12:21:39.127849Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-03T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights activists' dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\n\nThere's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will [absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/).\n\nOn November 16, 2021, [Josh Rogin at the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/16/beijing-olympics-2022-biden-partial-boycott/) wrote that the United States was planning to *diplomatically* boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said [the US is considering such a boycott](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/biden-says-us-considering-diplomatic-boycott-beijing-olympics-2021-11-18/). This is where this question comes in.\n\nA diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.\n\nThe question will resolve positively if at least four of following nations participate in a diplomatic boycott (or absolute boycott) of the games, and negatively if three or fewer boycott:\n\n * Australia\n * Canada\n * India\n * Japan\n * New Zealand\n * United Kingdom\n * United States\n\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nFor this question, a diplomatic boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing as officially representing their country, but WITHOUT sending any government officials to attend", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8673, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638481764.915922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638481764.915922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41495143771010795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.009846599194668917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698499412575147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.3254426001473227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08543252822519284, 0.0, 0.4737572998012347, 0.0, 0.022056491803213008, 0.3645648957485751, 0.0, 1.1326610502740468, 0.027921591804636593, 0.0, 1.0503284199576874, 0.49830965782780134, 2.2208519969363305, 0.032646840977241624, 0.011411287086953303, 0.19934892197747325, 0.2798809460600189, 0.9747186643752239, 0.005108015757072393, 1.1122229436586788, 0.23352772965446594, 1.0641273649818765, 0.017175512748169287, 0.555001365518943, 0.024857065371296127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32961001287751523, 0.0, 0.12168712976649625, 0.548266508279522, 0.31508149791861734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8285345905740491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4205524304686736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001469195406109808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.102790925837137, "coverage": 0.9901094933448717, "baseline_score": -41.17638536578975, "spot_peer_score": 3.998670311435421, "peer_archived_score": 11.102790925837137, "baseline_archived_score": -41.17638536578975, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.998670311435421 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638481764.942905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638481764.942905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6703858698747853, 0.32961413012521473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights activists' dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\n\nThere's a current Metaculus question asking whether a majority of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Australia, India, Japan) and the Five Eyes (US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada) will [absolutely boycott the 2022 Olympics in Beijing, China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/).\n\nOn November 16, 2021, [Josh Rogin at the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/11/16/beijing-olympics-2022-biden-partial-boycott/) wrote that the United States was planning to *diplomatically* boycott the Olympics instead of having a complete one. On November 18, 2021, President Biden has said [the US is considering such a boycott](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/biden-says-us-considering-diplomatic-boycott-beijing-olympics-2021-11-18/). This is where this question comes in.\n\nA diplomatic boycott is when a country sends no heads of state or government officials / dignitaries to the Olympic games, but still sends their athletes to compete under the banner of the country." }, { "id": 8670, "title": "Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?", "short_title": "US President Sole Authority on Nukes by 2030", "url_title": "US President Sole Authority on Nukes by 2030", "slug": "us-president-sole-authority-on-nukes-by-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-18T23:46:02.094152Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T14:35:01.741285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8670, "title": "Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-18T23:46:02.094152Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-22T13:34:06.585672Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-22T13:34:06.585672Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\n \nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\n \n>The U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**No**\" if, at any point between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, any one or set of American laws, amendments, or other legal mechanisms adds additional required authorizing parties to the final decision to use nuclear force and/or if the Acting President is no longer an authority in the process. \n\nThe addition of new parties able to authorize nuclear weapon use (even without the President's awareness or approval) will not be relevant to the resolution of this question. Additionally, the question resolution will not be affected by standing orders to use nuclear weapons (such as \"retaliate against X target if you detect a nuclear weapon launch\"), so long as they have been authorized in advance by the Acting President or someone with legal authority to authorize nuclear weapon use. An accidental launch of US nuclear weapons, or one launched outside of the US nuclear chain of command will also not resolve the question. This question solely concerns whether any new party will be able to restrict the Acting US President's authority to use nuclear weapons, or whether the President will have no such authority", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762118706.890371, "end_time": 1764206134.952825, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762118706.890371, "end_time": 1764206134.952825, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.94143742957675 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289814.558009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289814.558009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06412788662418634, 0.9358721133758137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\n \nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\n \n>The U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President." }, { "id": 8669, "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", "short_title": "Restrictions on US Pres War Powers by 2030", "url_title": "Restrictions on US Pres War Powers by 2030", "slug": "restrictions-on-us-pres-war-powers-by-2030", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-18T23:38:45.656007Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T07:00:54.559591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8669, "title": "Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-18T23:38:45.656007Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-22T15:47:36.932000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-22T15:47:36.932000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\n \nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\n \nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\n \n>It is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\n \nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President’s ability to deploy military force", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761691754.777466, "end_time": 1765539498.007305, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761691754.777466, "end_time": 1765539498.007305, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24177471961454486 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287821.046903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287821.046903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8865367903645153, 0.11346320963548473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\n \nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\n \nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\n \n>It is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\n \nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict." }, { "id": 8664, "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2031?", "short_title": "Patient Philanthropy US Legislation by 2031", "url_title": "Patient Philanthropy US Legislation by 2031", "slug": "patient-philanthropy-us-legislation-by-2031", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-17T12:40:17.453628Z", "published_at": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.759803Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-24T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8664, "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-11-17T12:40:17.453628Z", "open_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-24T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-24T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \n\nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\n\nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. This is a slightly longer term companion question to [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2030 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n\n- Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive.\n- Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750403006.457356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.1901153624 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750403006.457356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.1901153624 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8098846376, 0.1901153624 ], "means": [ 0.2310567073262948 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 1.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.3678794411714424, 0.4326949339433014, 0.6740515249111422, 1.3856289414269067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289727.287172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289727.287172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9076501802796288, 0.09234981972037115 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \n\nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\n\nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. This is a slightly longer term companion question to [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome." }, { "id": 8663, "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?", "short_title": "US Restricts Patient Philanthropy by 2023", "url_title": "US Restricts Patient Philanthropy by 2023", "slug": "us-restricts-patient-philanthropy-by-2023", "author_id": 112451, "author_username": "NunoSempere", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-17T12:37:56.673811Z", "published_at": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.095315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8663, "title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-11-17T12:37:56.673811Z", "open_time": "2021-11-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-31T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \n\nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2022 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n\n- Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive.\n- Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive.\n\nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. It is a shorter term companion to [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8664/patient-philanthropy-harder-in-the-us-by-30/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485001.612817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485001.612817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03472858336748222 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.969526729151276, 0.7855960928983151, 0.007369969155267514, 0.07555473386203065, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0827049688487111, 0.01323943609573642, 0.02075297689962095, 0.21409999499789023, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1466311625434156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09172301165876763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.565352844916107, "coverage": 0.9992060468030223, "baseline_score": 79.7658302264652, "spot_peer_score": 47.335974521230646, "peer_archived_score": 6.565352844916107, "baseline_archived_score": 79.7658302264652, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.335974521230646 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672485001.63923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672485001.63923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \n\nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1)." } ] }
