Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4520
{ "count": 6391, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4500", "results": [ { "id": 8662, "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", "short_title": "2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?", "url_title": "2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?", "slug": "2030-does-china-have-1000-nukes", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-17T08:56:51.579343Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:39.564487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:11:23.062380Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:11:23.062380Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8662, "title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-17T08:56:51.579343Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-24T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T11:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"]( https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \n\nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \n\nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\n\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\n\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS (https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/).\n\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \n\nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788928.604679, "end_time": 1764580870.670259, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788928.604679, "end_time": 1764580870.670259, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6193605883281067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.018876485630930608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3294207062950159, 0.0, 0.2693389084925394, 0.0, 0.7021345863207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1900906837396931, 0.04145990502278528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3195140954106343, 0.0, 0.8394799688108832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22521971367045202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004461392009860904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3953520701799775, 0.0, 0.28251042806198506, 0.04948386012397957, 0.07287217321493003, 0.028635115305717343, 0.008335175629822337, 0.004778496854644452, 0.0, 0.4008021578256057, 0.5429526874116974, 0.5495955121863824, 0.5849577636717652, 0.0, 0.037813494953784915, 0.176921206317764, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.0, 0.015174815764353458, 1.3518587098904469, 0.012062988077826794, 0.571393824862342, 0.0, 0.8902523718939138, 3.464061636364257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7455345713316219, 0.0, 0.6040789659320829, 0.0, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14589477565092324, 0.09674286297363076, 0.0, 0.29827758665904236, 0.0, 0.20103674410743155, 0.010703886146113043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10465042170671407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12211213542887514, 0.08934446028684764 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288497.29974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288497.29974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5571488312907438, 0.44285116870925617 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"]( https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \n\nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \n\nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\n\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\n\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia." }, { "id": 8649, "title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", "short_title": "Alien Origin of Interstellar Object by 2100", "url_title": "Alien Origin of Interstellar Object by 2100", "slug": "alien-origin-of-interstellar-object-by-2100", "author_id": 112155, "author_username": "Garrett_Levine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-16T13:57:16.097621Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T01:03:04.977022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8649, "title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", "created_at": "2021-11-16T13:57:16.097621Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2063-07-02T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I\\`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at least two of the following agencies (or their successors) releases a statement that confirms an extraterrestrial, intelligent origin of an interstellar object in our Solar System.\n\n- United States Department of Defense (Space Force, Air Force, etc.)\n- NASA\n- European Space Agency (ESA)\n- Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)\n- Roscosmos\n- Chinese National Space Administration\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an \"interstellar object\" will be defined as an object with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center ](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or as an object with an origin outside the solar system according to major government space agencies", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8649, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761699774.356432, "end_time": 1769032911.369905, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761699774.356432, "end_time": 1769032911.369905, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04955801906045078 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.636123855476804, 2.446483793462241, 0.4311322613322888, 0.14647037575649827, 0.13717490894663273, 2.803282727178751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664, 0.12061073836995856, 0.32449805599287956, 0.09169857379695719, 0.0, 0.2047065967472563, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15207970849988256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11640546089920972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288642.361147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288642.361147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9800053557820657, 0.01999464421793429 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 166, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I\\`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects." }, { "id": 8646, "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?", "short_title": ">100 nukes leading to drop of global trade", "url_title": ">100 nukes leading to drop of global trade", "slug": "100-nukes-leading-to-drop-of-global-trade", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-16T12:17:02.781834Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.587695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8646, "title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?", "created_at": "2021-11-16T12:17:02.781834Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "How much nuclear war would affect international trade is important for three reasons:\n\n\n1. Levels of international trade could serve as one imperfect proxy of the overall harm and disruption that would be caused by nuclear war.\n\n\n2. A reduction international trade would likely in itself led to reduced human health and wellbeing even under normal conditions.\n\n\n3. [Nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) scenarios may involve much less famine if international trade continues at high levels. This is because in those scenarios some areas may have the climatic conditions necessary to produce surplus food, but (a) they may only be able to do this if they get seeds, fertilizer, equipment, know-how, etc. from elsewhere, (b) this only prevents famine elsewhere if trade continues, and (c) if trade doesn't continue then there may instead be conflict over control of the necessary land or inputs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question conditions on there being more than 100 offensive nuclear detonations before 2050 (i.e., in the period between the opening of this question and January 1, 2050). That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if:\n\n\n1. The above condition is met, and \n\n\n2. Total global international trade of goods in any calendar year after the first detonation and no later that 5 years after the last detonation (or 2049, whichever comes earlier) is at least 10% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\n\nBy total international trade of goods, we mean all global exchange of goods across international borders. The data about global international trade of goods will be taken from the [International Trade Center](https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProduct.aspx?nvpm=1%7c%7c%7c%7c%7cTOTAL%7c%7c%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c1), where we select \"TOTAL - All products\" (in category Product), \"World\", and \"Exports\". If this source is not available, data from the World Trade Organization or other comparably trustworthy source will be used.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\n\n\n**See also**\n\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n\n* [[rough notes] How many people would die due to famine, given various possible agricultural production declines following nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IT9asE05NyZ5CZD6yPQZezB5yk1SHMm9modbPyIWvfQ/edit)", "fine_print": "[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023304.244072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023304.244072, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8603576875874391 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32280644676463766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7985484646111265, 0.10617775163122897, 0.3008835960253601, 0.0, 1.2886210528458075, 0.6909710575892369, 2.596844438831586 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287936.244373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287936.244373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16353331784967517, 0.8364666821503248 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "How much nuclear war would affect international trade is important for three reasons:\n\n\n1. Levels of international trade could serve as one imperfect proxy of the overall harm and disruption that would be caused by nuclear war.\n\n\n2. A reduction international trade would likely in itself led to reduced human health and wellbeing even under normal conditions.\n\n\n3. [Nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) scenarios may involve much less famine if international trade continues at high levels. This is because in those scenarios some areas may have the climatic conditions necessary to produce surplus food, but (a) they may only be able to do this if they get seeds, fertilizer, equipment, know-how, etc. from elsewhere, (b) this only prevents famine elsewhere if trade continues, and (c) if trade doesn't continue then there may instead be conflict over control of the necessary land or inputs." }, { "id": 8645, "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", "short_title": "First detonation accidental/unauthorized?", "url_title": "First detonation accidental/unauthorized?", "slug": "first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-16T10:15:20.600297Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:07:13.875263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8645, "title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", "created_at": "2021-11-16T10:15:20.600297Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)) Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\n\n\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\n\n\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n\n* [If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)", "fine_print": "[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 8645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760144823.563433, "end_time": 1767450603.130267, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760144823.563433, "end_time": 1767450603.130267, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12270039819056092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.071737882049769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.77870555759313, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5597690388818566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44918656124181044, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287869.038085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287869.038085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8981355510560078, 0.1018644489439922 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)) Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop." }, { "id": 8644, "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", "short_title": "First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent", "url_title": "First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent", "slug": "first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-16T10:08:25.780249Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T01:07:07.917207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8644, "title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", "created_at": "2021-11-16T10:08:25.780249Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n\n* [If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\n[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)) Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\n\n\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "fine_print": "[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 8644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760144817.732636, "end_time": 1767450615.536023, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760144817.732636, "end_time": 1767450615.536023, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.23748150879334676 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5022354285596152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5992539999893569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3197738256891531, 1.1292980843277705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2239734975813743, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288721.426997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288721.426997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9138970591752902, 0.08610294082470984 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n\n* [If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\n[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)) Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop." }, { "id": 8638, "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", "short_title": "Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State", "url_title": "Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State", "slug": "nuc-detonation-in-non-nuclear-armed-state", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:34:14.283685Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:51:10.729043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8638, "title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:34:14.283685Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\n\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).", "resolution_criteria": "Currently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\n\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n\n* [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n\n* [Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)", "fine_print": "\"In an **accidental or unauthorized** launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders. In a **deliberate** first attack, the attacking nation decides to attack based on accurate information about the state of affairs. In an **inadvertent** attack, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under attack and launches nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\n\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/)." }, { "id": 8636, "title": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?", "short_title": "Russia-NATO war without US", "url_title": "Russia-NATO war without US", "slug": "russia-nato-war-without-us", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:22:14.369054Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T16:14:01.755019Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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"2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n\n* [If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n\n----\n\nOther questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the following two criteria are met:\n\n1. Between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. \n\n2. It is *not* the case that there is a US-Russia war by January 1, 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.\n\nThis question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers \"only\" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts \"only\" the same amount. \n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763727352.384043, "end_time": 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"forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 321, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n\n* [If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n\n----\n\nOther questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)." }, { "id": 8635, "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "short_title": "Total yield of nuc. det. >50Mt by 2050", "url_title": "Total yield of nuc. det. >50Mt by 2050", "slug": "total-yield-of-nuc-det-50mt-by-2050", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:15:39.774515Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.630186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { 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"2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8635, "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:15:39.774515Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\n_For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/)._\n\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.", "fine_print": "One example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 100 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield per weapon of 500kt.\n\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8635, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756079533.44821, "end_time": 1787615533.323, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756079533.44821, "end_time": 1787615533.323, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.19799787756829892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5689615615432293, 1.8680988742991211, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289845.730874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289845.730874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8799826452658855, 0.12001735473411447 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\n_For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/)._\n\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used." }, { "id": 8632, "title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "short_title": "Total yield of nuc. det. >1000Mt by 2050", "url_title": "Total yield of nuc. det. >1000Mt by 2050", "slug": "total-yield-of-nuc-det-1000mt-by-2050", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T17:00:29.067987Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T09:49:25.247599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 1000 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)", "fine_print": "One example of a scenario where this question would resolve positively is one in which more than 5000 nuclear weapons are offensively detonated, with a mean yield of 250kt.\n\n\nIf there are multiple nuclear conflicts by 2050, resolution will be based on the total yield across all of these conflicts.\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 8632, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759106538.891605, "end_time": 1788495035.693414, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759106538.891605, "end_time": 1788495035.693414, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.07269942856411192 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289997.386003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289997.386003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, 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"2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:34:59.278015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, 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"created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8629, "title": "If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T16:40:56.251891Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\n\n**Potentially useful resources**\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole", "resolution_criteria": "This question is conditional on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations on or over territory owned by the US in a single conflict before January 1, 2045. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. The above condition is met\n\n2. Over the 5-calendar-year period after the first detonation in the first conflict that meets that condition, Average yearly total US cereal crop production is at least 20% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\nThis could involve smaller reductions in some years and for some cereal crops, as long as the average yearly total US cereal crop production across all 5 years is at least 20% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different pairings of states, involve unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).", "fine_print": "If a relevant source gives a relevant estimate but in the form of a range, this question can resolve positively as long as the midpoint of the range is 20% or higher.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to discern whether the decline in yields was caused by the nuclear detonations. Also note that, although we ask about detonations on or over the US and crop yield declines in the US, there could also be detonations elsewhere that contribute to US crop yield declines, and detonations on or over the US could also contribute to crop yield declines elsewhere. \n\nDetonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \"on or over territory owned by the US\".\n\nThis question will also resolve positively if the first nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than this amount of decline in yields but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758490488.202959, "end_time": 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0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 1.631282450367444 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289430.587635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289430.587635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22973280939893326, 0.7702671906010667 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\n\n**Potentially useful resources**\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole" }, { "id": 8619, "title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "short_title": "Bimagrumab Approval for Weight Loss by 2029", "url_title": "Bimagrumab Approval for Weight Loss by 2029", "slug": "bimagrumab-approval-for-weight-loss-by-2029", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T14:57:33.837579Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T07:49:39.111555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8619, "title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T14:57:33.837579Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n\n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve bimagrumab for the treatment of weight loss by 2029-01-01. This may include a successful development from Versanis Bio, or any other pharmaceutical company", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763519711.95318, "end_time": 1765724442.271749, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.326 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763519711.95318, "end_time": 1765724442.271749, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.326 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2559340318456437 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289303.816048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289303.816048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8227502811431248, 0.17724971885687527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n\n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity." }, { "id": 8618, "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?", "short_title": "Tirzepatide Approval for Weight Loss by 2025", "url_title": "Tirzepatide Approval for Weight Loss by 2025", "slug": "tirzepatide-approval-for-weight-loss-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T14:46:20.284843Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.504777Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-08T19:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-08T19:20:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8618, "title": "Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T14:46:20.284843Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-08T19:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-08T19:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-08T19:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide) called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve tirzepatide for the purpose of weight loss by January 1, 2025. This may be a successful development by Eli Lilly, or any other pharmaceutical company", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698852421.734504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698852421.734504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8048536323030535 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045131336135477436, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.028709986438327752, 0.3508471961166554, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5928733813562592, 0.5407300041287509, 0.06833212923320346, 0.09122295403992013, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.8444682791317178, 1.849126846487219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.4973905262035674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6693648210636393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.3356655461196376, "coverage": 0.6303413432352832, "baseline_score": 29.900098988894133, "spot_peer_score": -10.646099862133587, "peer_archived_score": 1.3356655461196376, "baseline_archived_score": 29.900098988894133, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.646099862133587 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699429152.771515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699429152.771515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2110752151661459, 0.7889247848338541 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eli Lilly has developed an injected drug based on [GLP-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucagon-like_peptide-1) and [gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastric_inhibitory_polypeptide) called tirzepatide. Tirzepatide has [performed well](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2107519) in diabetes trials and appears poised to gain FDA approval for that condition. [Experts believe](https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tirzepatide-achieved-superior-a1c-and-body-weight-reductions) it is probably more potent than semaglutide for the treatment of both type 2 diabetes and obesity, and Eli Lilly is currently conducting a [phase 3 weight loss trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04184622) in people with obesity and overweight that promises to yield results in April of 2022. Importantly, tirzepatide may provide much-needed competition for [semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide), potentially lowering drug costs." }, { "id": 8614, "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", "short_title": "Non-state actor develops a nuke by 2030", "url_title": "Non-state actor develops a nuke by 2030", "slug": "non-state-actor-develops-a-nuke-by-2030", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T13:24:54.630377Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T05:42:43.646808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8614, "title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T13:24:54.630377Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-19T15:35:30.141031Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-19T15:35:30.141031Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n\n\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\n\n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8614, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763447313.516781, "end_time": 1763854161.944438, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763447313.516781, "end_time": 1763854161.944438, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023297308891558025 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.635540808123622, 7.2560881901930605, 1.4288148383492987, 0.8700615850173199, 1.1717787100176675, 0.5313565866858323, 0.0, 0.04706262114429836, 0.6929637962308938, 0.009182867495108389, 0.06527233958650298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007382111540847759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09247365187383665, 0.0, 0.3524543245382723, 0.0, 0.03695445799964774, 0.0, 0.013817601810517008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04369273023274605, 0.011312442712237657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289575.326531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289575.326531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.99709178644644, 0.00290821355356001 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)" }, { "id": 8613, "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", "short_title": "Non-state actor acquires a nuke by 2030", "url_title": "Non-state actor acquires a nuke by 2030", "slug": "non-state-actor-acquires-a-nuke-by-2030", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T13:19:42.181766Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T08:08:37.333205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8613, "title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T13:19:42.181766Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \n\n\nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_(HEU)) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\n\n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8613, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763539706.779778, "end_time": 1765369860.652834, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763539706.779778, "end_time": 1765369860.652834, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03113069800624265 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1026839412950076, 3.180729731231697, 2.0073144651977928, 1.523225496881499, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.5975878340537664, 0.09051854706545945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49771971547363336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287044.604762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287044.604762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9925939503143619, 0.007406049685638082 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)" }, { "id": 8612, "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "short_title": "Nuclear exchange given New START continues", "url_title": "Nuclear exchange given New START continues", "slug": "nuclear-exchange-given-new-start-continues", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T12:48:29.397063Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.781638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8612, "title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T12:48:29.397063Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \n\n\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\n\n\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\n\n\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n\n* [Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8612, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023612.513508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023612.513508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.027838451705535852 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5851433699949685, 1.8997560976437518, 0.6402452195001321, 1.0497870683678638, 0.7801600228171697, 1.474625900025886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290010.833023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290010.833023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9961519840051463, 0.003848015994853695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)" }, { "id": 8611, "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", "short_title": "China-Russia war by 2035", "url_title": "China-Russia war by 2035", "slug": "china-russia-war-by-2035", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T12:35:40.740593Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T15:50:17.937416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 230, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8611, "title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T12:35:40.740593Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\n> \"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\n\n\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\n>\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \n\n\nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\n\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n\n\n**See also**\n\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n\n* [Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762530607.0501, "end_time": 1766339276.165448, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.033 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762530607.0501, "end_time": 1766339276.165448, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.033 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.033389787205947485 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.051191622327339, 5.513787554095247, 4.590910495405207, 3.8250388439692227, 1.0855945455271132, 2.2198596105298205, 0.8604536843112841, 0.7135695757334896, 0.5145707446198808, 0.0006241697693952422, 0.0016662416337925707, 0.0, 0.0011757622955760442, 0.0, 0.005899563528517669, 0.003577391169414754, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6176171768273295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3656670772886884, 0.01253678494952567, 0.3414711681354878, 0.0031406827876767187, 0.0, 8.447219252883634e-05, 0.0, 0.011857244473059686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015125967966683887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13843783356201542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288914.319533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288914.319533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 220, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978498471915189, 0.0021501528084810722 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 467, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\n> \"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\n\n\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\n>\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \n\n\nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them." }, { "id": 8609, "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", "short_title": "10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities", "url_title": "10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities", "slug": "10-agricul-drop-leading-to-400m-fatalities", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T11:46:37.323754Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.865221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8609, "title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T11:46:37.323754Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n\n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\n\n>\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\n\n\n>Armed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\n\n\nThe question resolves positively if: \n\n\n1. The above condition is met\n\n2. At least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \n\n\nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\n\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \n\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)", "fine_print": "For simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the 10% shortfall. For example, if the 10% shortfall is followed by armed conflict, no attempt will be made to second-guess what credible sources say about whether the fatalities caused by that armed conflict should be considered to be ultimately caused by the 10% shortfall.\n\n\n[1] The reason for using 2030 rather than 2024 for this question is that the fatalities and discussion of them may occur on a several-year delay from the actual shortfall. It therefore seemed unwise to force this question to resolve by 2024, and hence best to make this part of the long-term rather than calibration tournament.", "post_id": 8609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763597489.794515, "end_time": 1763741585.774663, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763597489.794515, "end_time": 1763741585.774663, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3090560807208254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9022923101514198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.313578654206223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.7963739058787758, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9381118225367868, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44717602761710196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289687.143789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289687.143789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7966156349345384, 0.20338436506546162 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n\n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\n\n>\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\n\n\n>Armed conflict could be in some countries’ best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"" }, { "id": 8608, "title": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "short_title": "Nuclear exchange given New START ends", "url_title": "Nuclear exchange given New START ends", "slug": "nuclear-exchange-given-new-start-ends", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T11:16:00.811853Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-03T07:23:47.133746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1173, "type": "question_series", "name": "Nuclear Risk Horizons Project", "slug": "nuclear-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/horizon_space_xs_cropped.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2021-06-23T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2100-01-15T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T14:40:38.054972Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8608, "title": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T11:16:00.811853Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-20T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange [conditional on New START being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) or conditional it not being renewed/replaced in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is not renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By the absence of replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there are no new agreements after 2026 that both US officials and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually does have very similar terms to New START.\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\n\n\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\n\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n\n* [Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/)", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being on or over US/Russia territory.\n\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761499568.929398, "end_time": 1765558234.121547, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761499568.929398, "end_time": 1765558234.121547, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.09898700377803404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8929389982591724, 1.61397914257422, 0.8661203960441423, 0.9422295194811616, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.955929299926919, 0.4203848492435676, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289025.6614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289025.6614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.988922399266654, 0.011077600733345929 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange [conditional on New START being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) or conditional it not being renewed/replaced in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)" }, { "id": 8605, "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "short_title": "Most of US IC favor COVID lab leak hypothesis", "url_title": "Most of US IC favor COVID lab leak hypothesis", "slug": "most-of-us-ic-favor-covid-lab-leak-hypothesis", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-15T00:44:06.214191Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.549928Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 109, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 354, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8605, "title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "created_at": "2021-11-15T00:44:06.214191Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-22T18:16:52.144559Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-22T18:16:52.144559Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:19:12.280747Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n> \n- \"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\"\n- \"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\"\n- \"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\"\n- \"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\"\n\nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n>\n- \"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\"\n- \"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\"\n- \"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\"\n\nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \n\nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\n\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \n\nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.", "fine_print": "A statement by the IC or credible media reports must come out before 2025-01-01 for this to resolve positively — i.e., this will resolve on the basis of when such information/statement comes out publicly and not when the assessment itself was made.\n\nNot all IC organizations have to express support for either hypothesis or even need to express a view at all. Rather, a simple majority of the IC organizations that *do express that they at least somewhat favor one hypothesis over the other* will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf an equal number of IC organizations favor either hypothesis (e.g. 4 favor the lab leak hypothesis and 4 favor the natural origin hypothesis), this resolves negatively.\n\nThe definitions of the lab leak and natural origin hypotheses used by the IC at time of resolution are what will be considered — e.g., if the IC considers \"sampling\" by members of a Hubei lab to fall under the lab leak hypothesis, then that is the definition Metaculus will use at time of resolution. However, if the definitions are unclear or ambiguous, then we will consider anything involving laboratory personnel who are doing research-related work of any kind to fall under the purview of the lab leak hypothesis, while all else falls under the natural origin hypothesis.", "post_id": 8605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649503.782649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 352, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649503.782649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 352, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.036790504842334426 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.60912334223271, 8.826175573131318, 1.880811174183335, 1.8288376364531143, 0.9583735394685821, 1.9833596021796096, 0.2299163281751859, 0.2178232049286409, 0.6709704350967383, 0.0, 0.9972870450450964, 0.004604955087149982, 0.0928715022884205, 0.42952252223067183, 0.023245050779824215, 0.4560817331391003, 0.05611126589242862, 0.00035504912273694666, 0.08634308860811121, 0.06725360640588765, 0.37072099597294494, 4.3909176506526806e-07, 0.12023031762341306, 0.0, 0.021742671598460106, 0.04819857040646044, 0.22440986667076787, 0.03594619098410471, 0.0359214733252997, 0.0, 0.017303448714200528, 6.749727401267932e-06, 0.033426709832935775, 0.00049756640379968, 0.0, 0.01828779866427733, 0.0018296206589078377, 1.8619268297640054e-06, 0.00024953815875992713, 0.0003649033365034155, 0.055947208292399964, 2.0354191499214744e-06, 0.0036504954615005267, 0.0003090063832681707, 0.020487096550703552, 0.002818883950752239, 0.0017432756234535426, 0.018456252585589195, 0.003027004862772121, 0.0011201342171263634, 0.03838933943573085, 1.4124844015114337e-06, 0.009598804729947204, 0.0, 0.0018890767855680541, 0.016000213114414012, 0.006420727144214154, 0.0235147417227101, 0.0, 0.026352285162092454, 0.27545114921516733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195836014295492, 0.00048770989029254375, 0.00976714788786899, 0.00018178877128283773, 0.01853081860473272, 0.049905827767111, 0.0032774343767190965, 0.01621012811592661, 0.012598614021664433, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3513402272935394e-05, 0.004974354565191611, 0.014348938898275843, 0.006528654414213669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013432027089072866, 0.0013105513056236148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004887675463399377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007906042743352866, 0.003954478740799739, 0.0, 0.0007662816465892337 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.09217287290694, "peer_score": 18.811879085736624, "coverage": 0.9999340096640824, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999340096640824, "spot_peer_score": 22.24593381827104, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 41.09217287290694, "peer_archived_score": 18.811879085736624, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.24593381827104, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287439.616391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287439.616391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978455898083565, 0.0021544101916435537 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1258, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n> \n- \"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\"\n- \"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\"\n- \"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\"\n- \"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\"\n\nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n>\n- \"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\"\n- \"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\"\n- \"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\"\n\nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"" }, { "id": 8602, "title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "short_title": "Semaglutide/Cagrilintide Approval by 2027", "url_title": "Semaglutide/Cagrilintide Approval by 2027", "slug": "semaglutidecagrilintide-approval-by-2027", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-13T17:30:11.099504Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T00:06:26.833919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8602, "title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "created_at": "2021-11-13T17:30:11.099504Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a paired form of semaglutide and cagrilintide (in any ratio) for the treatment of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company. The approved drug may have any ratio of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but may not include any other active ingredient", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761723283.810971, "end_time": 1763945815.333346, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761723283.810971, "end_time": 1763945815.333346, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4534939417849383 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2510683601437402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7955166408122005, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 1.4630317773882995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288522.20198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288522.20198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7261334288717811, 0.2738665711282188 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events." } ] }
