Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4540
{ "count": 6391, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4560", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4520", "results": [ { "id": 8601, "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "short_title": "GLP-1-based drug approval by 2029", "url_title": "GLP-1-based drug approval by 2029", "slug": "glp-1-based-drug-approval-by-2029", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:54:08.146957Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T19:20:12.269515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8601, "title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:54:08.146957Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\n\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762883888.35512, "end_time": 1764151639.417338, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762883888.35512, "end_time": 1764151639.417338, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7012649726382729 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112448422210552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9885911262812975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9528827756436404, 1.162613980708404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 1.8371418287854449, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570042353937055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287156.170102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287156.170102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5162365308596091, 0.483763469140391 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 159, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\n\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well." }, { "id": 8600, "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "short_title": "Oral Semaglutide Approval by 2027", "url_title": "Oral Semaglutide Approval by 2027", "slug": "oral-semaglutide-approval-by-2027", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:31:33.978355Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T18:52:32.618987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8600, "title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:31:33.978355Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\n\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\n\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8600, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761723283.422167, "end_time": 1763946076.178951, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.808 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761723283.422167, "end_time": 1763946076.178951, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.808 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.8448666567145161 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2335778548476577, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6952547297613973, 0.0, 1.185453518179838, 1.0632946946660151, 0.0, 1.2279129048504227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1330492787870257, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8739880877959378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289204.697823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289204.697823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19367868179676284, 0.8063213182032372 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\n\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it’s expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it’s most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\n\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks." }, { "id": 8599, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", "short_title": "Semaglutide Approval Withdrawal by 2027", "url_title": "Semaglutide Approval Withdrawal by 2027", "slug": "semaglutide-approval-withdrawal-by-2027", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:14:00.426464Z", "published_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T01:48:32.101556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8599, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", "created_at": "2021-11-13T16:14:00.426464Z", "open_time": "2021-11-24T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-26T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763435478.795552, "end_time": 1764987069.987252, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763435478.795552, "end_time": 1764987069.987252, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07827897407288881 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.2696150850347525, 2.895679586919482, 0.9809660270601307, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044765806719238674, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.18600389108035714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288961.316852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288961.316852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930059316116912, 0.0069940683883088625 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It’s marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it’s reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don’t yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)." }, { "id": 8589, "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?", "short_title": "US intention to re-join INF Treaty", "url_title": "US intention to re-join INF Treaty", "slug": "us-intention-to-re-join-inf-treaty", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T10:11:55.456349Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.499031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8589, "title": "Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T10:11:55.456349Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty):\n\n>\"The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union (and its successor state, the Russian Federation) signed in 1987. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers of different ranges, excluding sea-launched missiles. \n\n>[...] Amidst continuing growth of China's missile forces, US President Donald Trump announced on 20 October 2018 that he was withdrawing the US from the treaty due to supposed Russian non-compliance. The United States claimed another reason for the withdrawal was to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within the South China Sea, as China was not a signatory to the treaty. The US formally suspended the treaty on 1 February 2019, and Russia did so on the following day in response. The US formally withdrew from the treaty on 2 August 2019.\"\n\nThe likelihood of the US re-joining the INF Treaty has implications for nuclear risk both directly (as the treaty plausibly reduces nuclear risk) and as a proxy of geopolitical tensions and the health of diplomatic relations between Russia and the US.\n\n***By 2024, will the US officially announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty or a successor treaty?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if, between the question opening and 2024, there are credible reports that US President has announced it (unconditionally) intends to either (1) re-join the INF Treaty or (2) sign a new arms control treaty which the President describes as the successor to the INF Treaty. In the latter case, ratification by 2024 isn't necessary (just signing), and, for simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess the President on whether this treaty really is a successor to the INF Treaty. \n\nFor positive resolution, it would not be sufficient for the US President to make a conditional announcement, such that as the US intends to re-join the INF Treaty _if_ Russia takes some particular action that Russia is not already taking.\n\nConversely, positive resolution does not require that the US actually re-join the INF Treaty (or sign a successor treaty) by 2024. Positive resolution also does not require that Russia announce it intends to re-join the INF Treaty.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8589, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055377.432405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055377.432405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03230256903180273 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.1006858264016675, 5.869731908734266, 0.9647015886382911, 0.07506829335206704, 0.3814612643059605, 0.44259099997992934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4145739992477398, 0.15832791047994677, 0.2561723272837306, 0.0, 0.12470588323909494, 0.14666166587264037, 0.3440031682436779, 0.02396970589975444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.02603545223940409, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.0643898596671024, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47233846934165546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038921392209996956, 0.0, 0.038877773677794526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007128701647650959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002453736599219762, 0.0014822998514409601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.430444700422237, "coverage": 0.9999622868519705, "baseline_score": 72.18469040528663, "spot_peer_score": 11.025990716935256, "peer_archived_score": 9.430444700422237, "baseline_archived_score": 72.18469040528663, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.025990716935256 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055377.461912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055377.461912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8588, "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", "short_title": "Withdrawal from the NPT by 2024", "url_title": "Withdrawal from the NPT by 2024", "slug": "withdrawal-from-the-npt-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T10:06:05.884260Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.887831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8588, "title": "By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T10:06:05.884260Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\n\n>\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\n\n\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\n\n\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 2024, a country that joined the NPT before November 2021 actively withdraws from the treaty. The question will be resolved based on the data of [United Nations, Office for Disarmament Affairs](https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt). \n\n\nIf a country that is party to the NPT ceases to exist or is replaced by one or more successor states (as happened with the Soviet Union and Russia, for example) and this results in the country no longer being part of the NPT, that will not be treated as active withdrawal for the purposes of this question, even if the successor state(s) is also not party to the NPT.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, North Korea will be treated as having already withdrawn, meaning that further actions by North Korea cannot themselves resolve this question positively", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062375.892044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062375.892044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03507826850890813 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.076586508523373, 6.166100488641926, 0.11671740983778044, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.06973717259338014, 0.3124238203362266, 0.18603199268747062, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.0, 0.14169919136317252, 0.009159026026701877, 0.0808469231990914, 0.02078240075915524, 0.0922898227035347, 0.2921319363284763, 0.3204057711182421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.208558101639392, 0.07370291962268603, 0.06826140917396885, 0.0, 0.04171533316433183, 0.007280827884852904, 0.014035409334259398, 0.0014745534528646544, 0.16256421897928386, 0.0, 0.13683858870409932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052436268301725854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004411705175538277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1321625121000937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04128186139550782 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.576063180294046, "coverage": 0.9999481698699355, "baseline_score": 77.40896042267596, "spot_peer_score": 16.637673366093587, "peer_archived_score": 16.576063180294046, "baseline_archived_score": 77.40896042267596, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.637673366093587 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062375.892044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062375.892044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Nations state](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/):\n\n\n>\"The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and an essential foundation for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. It was designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, to further the goals of nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament, and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. A total of 191 States have joined the Treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states.\"\n\n\nA country withdrawing from the NPT could perhaps increase the chance of nuclear proliferation, as well as perhaps serving as a signal of rising geopolitical tensions and nuclear risk.\n\n\nIn 2003, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT. No other state has withdrawn, though [Iran has recently threatened to do so](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/1/20/iran-to-quit-npt-if-its-nuclear-programme-referred-to-un-zarif)." }, { "id": 8586, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "short_title": "First Nuclear Detonation by 2024 On City", "url_title": "First Nuclear Detonation by 2024 On City", "slug": "first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024-on-city", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:33:20.680740Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.331431Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8586, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:33:20.680740Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nWhat the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 occurs on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city (judged by credible media reports). This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\n\nCities are defined as having \"a population of at least 50,000 inhabitants in contiguous dense grid cells (>1,500 inhabitants per km2)\" ([_Degrees of Urbanization_])(https://blogs.worldbank.org/sustainablecities/how-do-we-define-cities-towns-and-rural-areas).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons (see fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage).\n\n**See also:**", "fine_print": "Detonations must occur less than 20 kilometers above the surface of the Earth in order to count as being \" on or over a point that is within the bounds of a city\".\n\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8586, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703157974.466274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703157974.466274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1945668661552611 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3850562006025955, 0.8859938611770912, 0.01958911193224546, 0.03294404806791346, 0.0, 0.9624936718446763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0881569413138735, 0.10962154716453501, 1.0388473873465816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1601313494724224, 0.0, 1.3086821482673998, 0.01141460135193492, 0.3380304655734388, 0.0, 0.0, 4.909921522476742, 0.06943620487934168, 0.15139107178669683, 0.07526328335590458, 0.37021221909092505, 0.652227584502922, 0.001078956545637215, 0.6280342341719295, 0.6665693504079824, 0.0, 0.4902976695162009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38841925480066675, 0.0, 0.2964170805706633, 0.029005835526161147, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09527191926620367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46571369073996843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008348.723657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008348.723657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9345339769438747, 0.06546602305612531 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8376/nuclear-weapon-detonations-on-cities/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on towns/cities with >500 people per square kilometer?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7503/fraction-detonations-by-2050-on-townscities/)\n\n* [What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nWhat the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk." }, { "id": 8585, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "short_title": "First Nuke by 2024 on Battlefield Target", "url_title": "First Nuke by 2024 on Battlefield Target", "slug": "first-nuke-by-2024-on-battlefield-target", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:25:24.831634Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.392875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8585, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:25:24.831634Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Related questions on Metaculus::**\n\n* [What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\n\n----\n\nWhat the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 was against a battlefield target. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2024.\n\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict (unless credible media reporting widely considers a city to be the primary target of the detonation, in which case it will not be seen as a battlefield target even if it is close to a frontline). If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution.", "fine_print": "Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703196890.344266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703196890.344266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6293174874942068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24936961279221967, 0.02464094517995897, 0.003689275185039177, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7003927598367212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010784004104394436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.318776115014317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.168288757842504, 0.030097723134820904, 0.033167896481265315, 0.0493667025423336, 0.8895461476317509, 0.5915411887402247, 0.9082376255562434, 0.08049479647214909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39817983537719004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2665441514110732, 1.3211913600184622, 2.8682273527250577, 0.30974369734682333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.527707449543517, 0.12034086987145352, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3578718303680837, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.1293948440529297, 0.619844361430768, 0.0, 1.1872765331205206, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34906719769614464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1874727013882846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899978921399792 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008315.284776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008315.284776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2915792452592988, 0.7084207547407012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Related questions on Metaculus::**\n\n* [What fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)\n\n----\n\nWhat the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk." }, { "id": 8584, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "short_title": "First nuke by 2024 is non-strategic weapon?", "url_title": "First nuke by 2024 is non-strategic weapon?", "slug": "first-nuke-by-2024-is-non-strategic-weapon", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:17:49.399605Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.707285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8584, "title": "Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T09:17:49.399605Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-27T21:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence that the first offensive nuclear detonation between this question opening and 2024 was a detonation of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world by 2024. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa.\n\n\nThe military significance or stated purpose of the strike is not taken into consideration for this question (except that [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution). \n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8585/bt-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n* [Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on city, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere by then?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8586/city-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-target/)", "fine_print": "Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8584, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703954339.354077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703954339.354077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7314273899806263 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2960776444453465, 0.0, 0.018701849353929764, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1265952290903183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001790116379774893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06043698144153095, 0.0, 0.01606106813340037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5211687455555376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06860136571662409, 0.4742504236378898, 0.22428123569986994, 0.017027295659117855, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.5893393376662783, 0.0, 0.1200681400982053, 0.012081674919003055, 0.40618095635066126, 0.6280367012936077, 0.0, 1.8465938706974594, 0.70552391225079, 1.720660436156342, 0.4025976836890638, 0.7937707065887178, 2.531138609187214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9943884502175713, 0.15440906702051524, 0.0, 0.15774725839889664, 0.09330886589633765, 0.0, 1.3726796507895576, 0.06773163967248513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022937907506089057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6060025267099519 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008274.563109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008274.563109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2460085314945779, 0.7539914685054221 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "What the first offensive nuclear detonation would look like is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk. One question is whether the first detonation would be of a strategic or non-strategic nuclear weapon. [Non-strategic nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) (also known as tactical nuclear weapons) are typically lower yield, shorter-range, and intended for detonating closer to friendly forces or friendly territory than strategic nuclear weapons. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges, as some non-strategic weapons can be used in a strategic context, and vice versa." }, { "id": 8583, "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?", "short_title": "Top Movies in 2050 Primarily Franchises", "url_title": "Top Movies in 2050 Primarily Franchises", "slug": "top-movies-in-2050-primarily-franchises", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T05:39:38.200643Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T13:46:01.719581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8583, "title": "Will at least 10 of the 20 highest grossing new movies in the year 2050 be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T05:39:38.200643Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-07-02T04:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:36:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as *Aladdin* (2019) and *Rise of the Planet of the Apes* (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if at least 10 of the top 20 highest grossing movies in the United States in 2050 are part of a franchise which has previously appeared in a movie released in theaters in the United States. Sequels to previously released movies, spin-off movies containing characters from a previously released movie, and in-universe movies (for example a Star Wars movie containing entirely new characters and settings but canonically in the Star Wars universe) would all count as part of an existing franchise previously appearing in a movie. If theaters are no longer the primary form of new movie releases in 2050 the admins may use their discretion to determine an equivalent metric for the highest grossing movies in the US in 2050", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8583, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758807951.462748, "end_time": 1771989487.062361, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758807951.462748, "end_time": 1771989487.062361, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7617379208659558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027700581072225252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005692210692547144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004878079341891922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32084018499459366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2450487076693471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004147367952591529, 0.17121873960083242, 0.0, 0.4467374260781513, 0.39241044281454124, 0.07034599129182002, 0.7408711152380609, 0.9865812838801139, 0.0, 0.49686214954256047, 0.024985744145835546, 1.1375001960229638, 0.21037230990838915, 0.615523979804894, 0.22643861771824655, 0.6694430849533405, 0.34679972591640307, 0.696809674327731, 0.08330211214582241, 1.4978395877804829, 0.18214514839267099, 0.4535406831267737, 0.0, 0.26083873251928735, 0.8363923052450274, 0.0, 0.7252279994133918, 0.0, 1.0880443589888058, 0.0, 0.01614116511509263, 0.8880909599161323, 0.0, 0.0904897364644334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3819714290243192 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289120.262036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289120.262036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3920871419069121, 0.6079128580930879 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 190, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The prevalence of remakes (such as *Aladdin* (2019) and *Rise of the Planet of the Apes* (2011)) and continuing franchises (such as the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchises) has been a topic of discussion and has been used by some as [evidence of a lack of ideas or an aversion to risk in Hollywood](https://news.yahoo.com/theres-reason-why-many-remakes-141000996.html). Others see it as a sign of a stagnant culture. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about culture in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The panopticon of social media and state control will lead to cultural stagnation. We already see early hints of this. Consider the remakes of older movies: 2050 will be a stew of remakes of remakes, and familiar and boring intellectual property (like Star Wars) will be king. Creativity vivacity will suffer, especially in the arts and humanities. The coming half-century will be a great one for innovations in finance, engineering, space travel, and artificial intelligence. It will be a terrible one for the arts and basic scientific advancements (like a new physics), for such advancements [require iconoclastic and creative lone individuals](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/p/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone). This prediction is already augured by judging the 2000-2020 creative period overall in areas like art, music, literature, film, and scientific discoveries, and finding it severely lacking compared to, say, 1950-1970." }, { "id": 8582, "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", "short_title": "Smoking and Sex Less Prevalent in US in 2050", "url_title": "Smoking and Sex Less Prevalent in US in 2050", "slug": "smoking-and-sex-less-prevalent-in-us-in-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T05:14:42.238251Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.347696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8582, "title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T05:14:42.238251Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:13:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2051-01-01T05:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\n\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. This question will resolve as **Yes** if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.", "fine_print": "Regarding similar methodology, if a survey in 2021 includes e-cigarettes and a survey from 2050 does not the surveys would not be considered to have similar methodology. However, different methodologies can still be acceptable if it can be logically deduced that the surveys provide evidence toward resolution. For example, if a survey in 2021 asked whether respondents had sex in the past year and 25% answered no, and a survey in 2050 asked if respondents had sex in the past five years and 40% answered no, it can be deduced that a larger share of adults in 2050 had not had sex in the past year than in 2021 because the five year period would include the past year.", "post_id": 8582, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742182771.918376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.621 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742182771.918376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.621 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.379, 0.621 ], "means": [ 0.6055096361490405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8148267266032817, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11180750406153984, 0.0, 0.26404541201653237, 0.9243230331922829, 0.0, 0.6359245328892433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.09241538199224705, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9363412577126602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287071.000989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287071.000989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.454955874100864, 0.545044125899136 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\n\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018." }, { "id": 8578, "title": "Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "short_title": "Rittenhouse convicted of a felony before '22?", "url_title": "Rittenhouse convicted of a felony before '22?", "slug": "rittenhouse-convicted-of-a-felony-before-22", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-11T02:23:41.051060Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.899949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-22T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-22T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8578, "title": "Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-11T02:23:41.051060Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-11T16:52:17.435709Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-11T16:52:17.435709Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2021-11-22T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-11-22T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-11-22T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 25, 2020, amid the [unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenosha_unrest_shooting) after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old from Antioch, Illinois, shot and killed two men and wounded another man in the arm during confrontations at two locations.\n\nRittenhouse was subsequently charged with multiple felonies in connection with these events, and [is currently on trial.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59239853) Rittenhouse is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges.\n\nRittenhouse is [charged](https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/explainer-charges-kyle-rittenhouse-face-81084162) with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree homicide, two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety, and one misdemeanour count of possession of a dangerous weapon by a person under age 18. This misdemeanour charge is not relevant to this question, but is mentioned here for completeness.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2022, Rittenhouse is convicted on any of the previously enumerated felony charges against him. These are the two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, the single count of attempted first-degree homicide, and the two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety. A conviction on any other charges, felony or misdemeanour, is irrelevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if this does not happen, including if there is a mistrial and any subsequent retrial on these charges does not result in a conviction on at least one of the felony charges before January 1, 2022.\n\nThis question closes retroactively to the moment the jury are instructed to deliberate on any felony charge in this case, or the moment the jury is directed to deliver a particular verdict on any felony charge, or the moment all felony charges are dismissed, or the moment any plea on a felony charge is changed to guilty, whichever happens earlier.\n\nNote that this question is strictly a prediction as to what *will* happen, and not a statement or assertion in relation to Rittenhouse's actual guilt or innocence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636930800.795198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636930800.795198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1535867913656461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35295199914776343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.021460609192391, 0.10344231989096485, 0.07903879069473396, 0.7647739405333172, 1.664920925723274, 0.9806111799031116, 0.004046517214306785, 0.008686660616741733, 2.055534535979916, 0.5857488637089977, 0.1342432190390612, 0.16043171008124435, 1.8520154941656286, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0656254037229738, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0674561788958834, 0.005009210557615142, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.0, 1.2494756026927725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28217551895796505, 0.3815029447976801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17447624255676622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002444497044844799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.27670933508247, "coverage": 0.9999743937963649, "baseline_score": 82.62134614113909, "spot_peer_score": 10.729198542567563, "peer_archived_score": 6.27670933508247, "baseline_archived_score": 82.62134614113909, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.729198542567563 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636930800.821568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636930800.821568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9269876920722792, 0.07301230792772087 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 25, 2020, amid the [unrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenosha_unrest_shooting) after the police shooting of Jacob Blake, Kyle Rittenhouse, a 17-year-old from Antioch, Illinois, shot and killed two men and wounded another man in the arm during confrontations at two locations.\n\nRittenhouse was subsequently charged with multiple felonies in connection with these events, and [is currently on trial.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59239853) Rittenhouse is presumed innocent until proven guilty, and has pleaded not guilty to all of the charges.\n\nRittenhouse is [charged](https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/explainer-charges-kyle-rittenhouse-face-81084162) with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one count of attempted first-degree homicide, two counts of first-degree recklessly endangering safety, and one misdemeanour count of possession of a dangerous weapon by a person under age 18. This misdemeanour charge is not relevant to this question, but is mentioned here for completeness." }, { "id": 8573, "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", "short_title": "30% of Fortune 500 CEOs Non-White in 2050", "url_title": "30% of Fortune 500 CEOs Non-White in 2050", "slug": "30-of-fortune-500-ceos-non-white-in-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-10T19:03:43.525532Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:02:15.749391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8573, "title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-10T19:03:43.525532Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T19:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:02:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\n\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\n\nEach year *Fortune* magazine publishes the [*Fortune* 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of *Fortune* 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of *Fortune* 500 CEOs are white.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the *Fortune* 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event *Fortune* does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757638924.749553, "end_time": 1777612341.800089, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757638924.749553, "end_time": 1777612341.800089, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5283583962057566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20410203261308407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5323060210336994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.9328827333509495, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2557565412146049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.028454418737632672, 0.160831023763914, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.18526809390665838, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289155.318531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289155.318531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5281889849623871, 0.47181101503761297 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\n\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>[Princeton’s incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\n\nEach year *Fortune* magazine publishes the [*Fortune* 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of *Fortune* 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of *Fortune* 500 CEOs are white." }, { "id": 8572, "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% before 2051?", "short_title": "Riedl Bets Cole About Higher Interest Rates", "url_title": "Riedl Bets Cole About Higher Interest Rates", "slug": "riedl-bets-cole-about-higher-interest-rates", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-10T15:42:07.680071Z", "published_at": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.973244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8572, "title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% before 2051?", "created_at": "2021-11-10T15:42:07.680071Z", "open_time": "2021-11-15T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-17T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-17T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-01-01T15:38:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2051-01-01T15:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n\n>...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\n\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\n\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\n\n>I'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\n\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\n\nIn [*The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook*](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n\n>...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Brian Riedl wins the bet against Alan Cole, according to mutual agreement by both parties. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.", "fine_print": "Under the relevant conditions described in the resolution criteria above, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the actual average interest rate on federal debt as reported by the CBO exceeds 4.6% prior to January 1, 2051. If the method of calculation of the average interest rate on federal debt is substantially revised prior to resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. The resolution date for this question is December 31, 2052, any CBO publication prior to that date showing the actual average interest rate on federal debt exceeded 4.6% prior to January 1, 2051 will resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 8572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721084916.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721084916.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5840000000000001, 0.416 ], "means": [ 0.41875224439837916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3390876156680339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3252680635764325, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5379594351447384, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287379.6128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287379.6128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6727355500494709, 0.32726444995052906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n\n>...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\n\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\n\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\n\n>I'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\n\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\n\nIn [*The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook*](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n\n>...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051." }, { "id": 8558, "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", "short_title": "Polygamy Legal in US by 2050", "url_title": "Polygamy Legal in US by 2050", "slug": "polygamy-legal-in-us-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-09T15:09:43.294990Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T06:45:28.418460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T15:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8558, "title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-09T15:09:43.294990Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T00:16:55.115464Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T00:16:55.115464Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T15:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T15:08:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T15:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\n\n>the state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\n\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\n\n>marriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\n\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Polyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763621117.923821, "end_time": 1765272438.175207, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763621117.923821, "end_time": 1765272438.175207, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.1746781349583433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6240114035586083, 0.1798203246778239, 0.0, 0.10677225309695815, 0.02195372606413221, 1.7633310000021614, 0.015999109858631472, 0.29098512977860935, 0.5050001984762857, 0.0, 1.1588370983979424, 0.019802118268059273, 0.09879842164109327, 1.4749151499731181, 0.0, 0.7060278366234354, 1.8350254582113716, 0.12436328158297608, 0.3713392620053201, 0.14480154705610965, 2.2549012628648892, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.23747616990092357, 0.795823603359511, 0.00383760767502452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8896313869576444, 0.0, 0.5854386136008327, 0.0, 0.13404309120326557, 0.38881755579483335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9023706962691328, 0.00786907671175604, 0.0, 0.017820921846768534, 0.25869890314948757, 0.0, 0.006900644262869463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006731217591434027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01138843172275674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288517.51354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288517.51354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9143219273797464, 0.08567807262025358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 286, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\n\n>the state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\n\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\n\n>marriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\n\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Polyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050." }, { "id": 8556, "title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", "short_title": "Majority Female US Senators in 2050", "url_title": "Majority Female US Senators in 2050", "slug": "majority-female-us-senators-in-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-08T19:44:57.217946Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T14:23:47.724715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8556, "title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T19:44:57.217946Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T14:54:45.517297Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T14:54:45.517297Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:42:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761747816.933291, "end_time": 1770933401.230047, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.248 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761747816.933291, "end_time": 1770933401.230047, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.248 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.752, 0.248 ], "means": [ 0.2098056552107426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.784781284352523, 0.9292991145104746, 0.06505325903721454, 0.0, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2335295216004625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5002306879031901, 0.0, 0.40448547748700786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5896713904463482, 0.5429942209064903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3352121245432954, 1.5067060028284687, 0.46167593653055977, 0.0, 0.5908219439133643, 0.0, 0.05662491630523141, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2490679505791866, 1.0, 0.26979776528897914, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.5266762373952883, 0.2236083826852615, 0.08235174299721564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287487.74274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287487.74274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8545971723048247, 0.14540282769517535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001." }, { "id": 8555, "title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", "short_title": "US Women Earn More than Men in 2050", "url_title": "US Women Earn More than Men in 2050", "slug": "us-women-earn-more-than-men-in-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-08T19:35:32.122979Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:52:24.079043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-12-31T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-12-31T19:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8555, "title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T19:35:32.122979Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-12-31T19:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2051-12-31T19:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2051-12-31T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>...while women’s salaries are not as high on average as men’s now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women’s wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the median usual weekly real earnings for wage and salary workers age 16 and over are higher for women than men in the fourth quarter of 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm). The data since 1979 is available in [this FRED chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) for men and women. If BLS stops publishing the relevant economic data, other credible data that provides a similar comparison between the median wages of adult men and women may be used.\n\nIf FRED no longer distinguishes data for men and women or definitions have changed, any data that compares wages on the basis of either sex at birth or current sex or gender identity as may be used for resolution. Where different estimates would result in a different resolution, Metaculus Admins may resolve according to the most high-quality data or resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472733.383694, "end_time": 1773207370.032871, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.347 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472733.383694, "end_time": 1773207370.032871, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.347 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.653, 0.347 ], "means": [ 0.33140521168824183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.987374870201093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09974001082466258, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2761168848762874, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33281335028140596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.7130527459887679, 0.33717372154712655, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.32297930813893194, 0.1175714330305658, 0.6224003963431053, 0.0, 1.6979616632880035, 0.4532733525755623, 0.7777618131431029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5815967111077537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05150409956156851, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287105.86043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287105.86043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7665288981900471, 0.23347110180995284 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>...while women’s salaries are not as high on average as men’s now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women’s wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050." }, { "id": 8554, "title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", "short_title": "Women Get 70% of Bachelor's Degrees US 2050", "url_title": "Women Get 70% of Bachelor's Degrees US 2050", "slug": "women-get-70-of-bachelors-degrees-us-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-08T17:17:06.524392Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:30:55.666125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2053-12-31T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8554, "title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T17:17:06.524392Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2053-12-31T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:13:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in the 2049-2050 school year are awarded to women, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. \"Female\" or \"women\" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.\n\nIf bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761220422.68503, "end_time": 1764452328.15925, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.152 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761220422.68503, "end_time": 1764452328.15925, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.152 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.848, 0.152 ], "means": [ 0.19284390278208818 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.013463637608886, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8166932041102068, 0.7307128592882568, 0.1246610110958938, 0.6667599427566077, 0.0, 2.284017171140511, 0.5862874455330871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025835069850554716, 0.7166121020575369, 0.0, 0.2796605246591077, 0.0, 0.009928975007740863, 0.9221313471577822, 0.8880909599161323, 0.005019220681377924, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2170564246682694, 0.0904897364644334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6071833071062992, 0.0, 0.9425827161078613, 0.0, 0.26481872683973096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5145796460125676, 0.0029102099193291783, 0.7408711152380609, 0.0, 0.1245047886005569, 0.24311673443421447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22643861771824655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09818838287618935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288203.659475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288203.659475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.964336539252758, 0.03566346074724202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]" }, { "id": 8553, "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?", "short_title": "Donor giving >$10m on nuclear risk in 2022", "url_title": "Donor giving >$10m on nuclear risk in 2022", "slug": "donor-giving-10m-on-nuclear-risk-in-2022", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T17:12:27.400762Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.343729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-21T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-21T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:11:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8553, "title": "Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T17:12:27.400762Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-12-13T06:47:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-12-13T06:47:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-21T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-21T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic._\n\n\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n\n* The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the\tCarnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n\n* Since 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n\n* No other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\n\n\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, by 31 March 2023, credible sources indicate that a donor that is not a government (and not one of the aforementioned Carnegie and MacArthur foundations) has in 2022 given out more than $10 million in grants that the donor sees as primarily relevant to nuclear weapons risks (including proliferation, disarmament, etc.). These sources could include a foundation's own grants database, the Peace and Security Funding Map data (with an additional check to ensure the grants are indeed related to nuclear risk[2]), or news sources. It is not necessary that all such sources show that this has happened (though they shouldn't explicit deny that it has happened), since some sources may simply fail to report things or be out of date.\n\n\n**Footnote**\n\n[1] To see the relevant data, go to https://peaceandsecurityindex.org, click \"Start searching\", select \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" from \"SUBJECT AREA\", and click \"List\". This will include government funding bodies, but these can be removed by unchecking \"U.S. Federal Funders\". \n\n\n[2] Unfortunately, the Peace and Security Funding Map tracks under \"Preventing and Mitigating Conflict > Nuclear Issues\" many grants that really aren't about nuclear weapons issues but happen to use the term \"nuclear\". These include medical research grants that use the term \"nuclear\" in a totally different sense and biosecurity-related grants to the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Therefore, if the only credible source that can be found that suggests this question should resolve positively if this source, I'll check whether it does indeed appear that the funder made >$10m in nuclear risk related grants, and I'll explain my reasoning publicly and invite criticism", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647880052.032255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647880052.032255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.3969063461813094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.07505093128992153, 0.0, 1.3886481483931001, 0.0, 0.4800044130244517, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9391227861725873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.5724472223148853, 0.7620908974955233, 3.0142654794839787, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2589219356652139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.42214537406939, "coverage": 0.9990879466716266, "baseline_score": 50.88362911145892, "spot_peer_score": 9.420241183407965, "peer_archived_score": 9.42214537406939, "baseline_archived_score": 50.88362911145892, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.420241183407965 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647880052.081842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1647880052.081842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6764015069515799, 0.3235984930484202 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on funding and labor allocated to nuclear risk reduction. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8125/nuclear-risk-funding--labor/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic._\n\n\nAs far as I (Michael Aird) am aware:\n\n* The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the\tCarnegie Corporation of New York have been the two largest donors in the nuclear risk space since 2012 (excluding governments)\n\n* Since 2016, MacArthur and Carnegie have often each given out more than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year\n\n* No other donor has given out than $10 million in nuclear risk grants per year in any year since 2012 (again, excluding governments)\n\n\nI base this in part on the Peace and Security Funding Map data[1], which stretches back to 2012." }, { "id": 8550, "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "short_title": "Russia and the Open Skies Treaty by 2024", "url_title": "Russia and the Open Skies Treaty by 2024", "slug": "russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:50:06.764914Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.131095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8550, "title": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:50:06.764914Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": ">\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\n\n\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \n\n**See also:**\n\n* [By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state Russia has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that Russia _would_ rejoin _if_ some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n\n\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062413.055416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062413.055416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.04437590167699644 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.280830631282239, 5.03149589856694, 0.18250442151078106, 0.008707587640273762, 0.029030972137388197, 0.03162862976651547, 0.0, 0.006299682402418756, 0.007035290334828157, 0.015697917683711572, 0.010679897806566082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01728785016761595, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.004531262032308371, 0.00965371437268609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006696926753236803, 0.1905633632044354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12795492306753103, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034284491894686197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6163089641375369 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.7425417042412, "coverage": 0.9999267993065177, "baseline_score": 88.7861801621245, "spot_peer_score": 9.884391405103742, "peer_archived_score": 8.7425417042412, "baseline_archived_score": 88.7861801621245, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.884391405103742 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062413.074333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062413.074333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": ">\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\n\n\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021. \n\n**See also:**\n\n* [By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8547/us-part-of-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 8549, "title": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "New NATO Member by 2024", "url_title": "New NATO Member by 2024", "slug": "new-nato-member-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:46:35.353844Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.277047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 229, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8549, "title": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:46:35.353844Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, any state formally joins [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO). This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680617953.396631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680617953.396631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.942874645527778 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 7.384545702914496e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.380410151158756e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.979342279681439e-06, 0.0, 6.05506512071994e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.616734303024628e-06, 0.0, 2.5063627160400423e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 8.55799747270186e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08343934571127487, 0.0, 4.5321286613323875e-06, 0.09763712531582282, 0.0, 7.281593317362164e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09028139375060874, 3.47464036510542e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010281344570248254, 0.0, 4.8371801497504076e-05, 0.0, 1.101836320178838e-06, 0.05144608618668951, 0.0536008509720145, 0.0, 0.07406724632687654, 0.0, 5.8435840844333436e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.079837024463494e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03865279287851474, 0.23271247059442915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09392206104826666, 0.006847618267601851, 0.2563048698193753, 0.0, 0.1329384683474127, 0.008734792374905244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4408769009428276, 0.0473731352976014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011739298326416665, 0.8007809003420715, 0.2414663531518558, 0.06567267770606018, 7.667830837026472e-05, 0.2691541569566525, 0.3711116932333731, 0.18653770227702912, 0.27089211444507605, 0.7018922831862837, 0.6136295271214074, 0.6465649042184684, 0.6544427825348202, 0.11853760917819325, 0.6425539399731138, 0.19937749098711266, 1.2390475678454655, 0.37591956050850306, 2.0349892272980012, 1.4293061041280042, 16.196967276456455 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.768243317889842, "coverage": 0.6489652187872698, "baseline_score": 19.3511103599278, "spot_peer_score": 69.64819977682951, "peer_archived_score": 15.768243317889842, "baseline_archived_score": 19.3511103599278, "spot_peer_archived_score": 69.64819977682951 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680617953.428161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680617953.428161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0320636580330137, 0.9679363419669863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 30, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 795, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"" } ] }
