Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4560
{ "count": 6392, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4540", "results": [ { "id": 8549, "title": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "New NATO Member by 2024", "url_title": "New NATO Member by 2024", "slug": "new-nato-member-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:46:35.353844Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.277047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 229, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8549, "title": "Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:46:35.353844Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2024, any state formally joins [NATO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO). This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the new state being included in the member list on NATO's official website. If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and one or more of these join NATO, this will not count toward a positive resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680617953.396631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680617953.396631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.932 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.942874645527778 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 7.384545702914496e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.380410151158756e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.979342279681439e-06, 0.0, 6.05506512071994e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.616734303024628e-06, 0.0, 2.5063627160400423e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 8.55799747270186e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08343934571127487, 0.0, 4.5321286613323875e-06, 0.09763712531582282, 0.0, 7.281593317362164e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09028139375060874, 3.47464036510542e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010281344570248254, 0.0, 4.8371801497504076e-05, 0.0, 1.101836320178838e-06, 0.05144608618668951, 0.0536008509720145, 0.0, 0.07406724632687654, 0.0, 5.8435840844333436e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.079837024463494e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03865279287851474, 0.23271247059442915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09392206104826666, 0.006847618267601851, 0.2563048698193753, 0.0, 0.1329384683474127, 0.008734792374905244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4408769009428276, 0.0473731352976014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011739298326416665, 0.8007809003420715, 0.2414663531518558, 0.06567267770606018, 7.667830837026472e-05, 0.2691541569566525, 0.3711116932333731, 0.18653770227702912, 0.27089211444507605, 0.7018922831862837, 0.6136295271214074, 0.6465649042184684, 0.6544427825348202, 0.11853760917819325, 0.6425539399731138, 0.19937749098711266, 1.2390475678454655, 0.37591956050850306, 2.0349892272980012, 1.4293061041280042, 16.196967276456455 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.768243317889842, "coverage": 0.6489652187872698, "baseline_score": 19.3511103599278, "spot_peer_score": 69.64819977682951, "peer_archived_score": 15.768243317889842, "baseline_archived_score": 19.3511103599278, "spot_peer_archived_score": 69.64819977682951 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680617953.428161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680617953.428161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 229, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0320636580330137, 0.9679363419669863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 30, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 795, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO): \n\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. An additional 20 countries participate in NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, with 15 other countries involved in institutionalized dialogue programmes. The combined military spending of all NATO members in 2020 constituted over 57% of the global nominal total. Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"" }, { "id": 8547, "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "short_title": "US intention to rejoin Open Skies Treaty", "url_title": "US intention to rejoin Open Skies Treaty", "slug": "us-intention-to-rejoin-open-skies-treaty", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:36:29.807765Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.040992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8547, "title": "By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:36:29.807765Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": ">\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\n\n\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\n\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if at least three reputable sources by 2024 state that the US has clearly announced it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty (and not just that the US _would_ rejoin _if_ some condition is met). This announcement must be an official announcement by one of the following: the US President; Secretary of Defense; Secretary of State; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; or the head of one of the US's armed services. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an announcement would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044872.152871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044872.152871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.044007477524955596 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.960090029620629, 5.011614312042491, 0.23225534602459835, 0.0, 0.04514204714624391, 0.6455641308364432, 0.18834384032568063, 0.13676799477895174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05292504647240984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01940519925557897, 0.018124079801571016, 0.029973242703955738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017670186626063705, 0.012269021288902476, 0.0, 0.006953708882782987, 0.014576282762107543, 0.0, 0.15817325761837261, 0.0, 0.013202104198869453, 0.005493040083393936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004277460841020688, 0.02779729940940726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0007445998625080673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313, 0.0, 0.0010303164300238567, 0.0017867105110732713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000365894509793429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037510417922525527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5435784905528189 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.373976246339241, "coverage": 0.9999266632401834, "baseline_score": 77.91997616610362, "spot_peer_score": 11.069621734943443, "peer_archived_score": 11.373976246339241, "baseline_archived_score": 77.91997616610362, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.069621734943443 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044872.198533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044872.198533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 271, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": ">\"The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them. It entered into force on January 1, 2002, and currently has 34 party states. The idea of allowing countries to openly surveil each other is thought to prevent misunderstandings (e.g., to assure a potential opponent that one's country is not about to go to war) and limit the escalation of tensions. It also provides mutual accountability for countries to follow through on treaty promises. Open Skies is one of the most wide-ranging international efforts to date promoting openness and transparency of military forces and activities.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies))\n\n\nThe US withdrew from the treaty in November 2020. \"Moscow [then] unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn’t transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.\" ([source](https://apnews.com/article/russia-leaves-open-skies-treaty-e58019b80ae95e12007265aedfac229b)) Russia withdrew from the treaty itself in June 2021.\n\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8550/russia-and-the-open-skies-treaty-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 8546, "title": "Will any state leave NATO before 2024?", "short_title": "NATO Withdrawal by 2024", "url_title": "NATO Withdrawal by 2024", "slug": "nato-withdrawal-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:31:03.910825Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.360337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 208, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8546, "title": "Will any state leave NATO before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:31:03.910825Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if any state which was a [member of NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm) on January 1, 2021 leaves NATO before January 1, 2024, according to an official announcement by NATO. The exit must have taken effect before 2024; an announcement of their intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving is insufficient.", "fine_print": "If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would _not_ count toward a positive resolution.\n\nFor simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024.", "post_id": 8546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051446.511755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051446.511755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005840775980775819 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.020238447408296, 5.285069394278414, 0.39077449650546925, 0.027401792954833547, 0.020939329837729306, 0.15463177984654458, 0.004679904802133851, 0.0, 0.0019986176130161377, 9.844104871565991e-05, 0.2812121089391163, 1.7416309089960353e-05, 0.0, 0.002967961769033612, 0.0, 0.00022210468425755333, 0.0023446835414885968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.081314413798824e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14482790477550775, 0.0, 0.00020222586963082972, 0.007982193303432979, 6.3141629585863265e-06, 9.223297138496708e-06, 0.0, 0.0014326960962141619, 0.0, 2.0062586884497216e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013039013974224507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.932889159910692e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.19640132351266, "coverage": 0.9998391443659097, "baseline_score": 96.74312595834027, "spot_peer_score": 11.641685484848972, "peer_archived_score": 8.19640132351266, "baseline_archived_score": 96.74312595834027, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.641685484848972 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051446.554543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051446.554543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 499, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Wikipedia states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO):\n\n>\"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]\n\n>Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024.\"" }, { "id": 8544, "title": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?", "short_title": "Will Metaculus see nuclear detonation coming?", "url_title": "Will Metaculus see nuclear detonation coming?", "slug": "will-metaculus-see-nuclear-detonation-coming", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:20:18.885648Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.206110Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8544, "title": "If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:20:18.885648Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/). If that does happen, how predictable will it be in the days beforehand? To what extent will it be a bolt from the blue?\n\n***If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for at least a day during the week before the detonation?***\n\nThis question conditions on [Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/) resolving positively; that is, this question resolves ambiguously unless that other one resolves positively. \n\nThis question resolves positively if:\n\n1. That other question resolves positively, and\n\n2. For a full 24 hour period sometime in the 168 hours (i.e., 7 times 24) before the first detonation that resolves that other question positively, the Community Prediction on that other question is greater than 20%", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703964946.298339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703964946.298339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.43981621556401057 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.36032272521860703, 1.1581531495922768, 0.007787440011400082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45686135823909096, 0.000365894509793429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.731574471360978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006572940643487771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006190506525619948, 0.0, 1.5301710480665416, 0.0, 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1704008248.246239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008248.246239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8293000656896149, 0.17069993431038513 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 266, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8542, "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?", "short_title": "At least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "url_title": "At least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "slug": "at-least-one-hemp-attack-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:05:53.304359Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.667956Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8542, "title": "Will at least one HEMP attack occur by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:05:53.304359Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n\n>\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\n\n\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is _if_ there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive nuclear detonation by 2024. It resolves positively if there is both a HEMP attack and an offensive nuclear detonation (not counting the HEMP attack) by 2024. This requires that, by 31 January 2024, at least three credible sources report each of those events having occurred between this question opening and the end of 2023. What order these events occur in and how close together in time they occur will not be taken into account.\n\n\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n1) a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n2) a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation", "fine_print": "HEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. \n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations of state or nonstate nuclear weapons, but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) (even if such detonations cause substantial damage). In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)", "post_id": 8542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965014.661291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965014.661291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23029239003900356 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.5494868633775907, 0.0, 0.3321908109421302, 0.0, 0.5055425183303073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22863742377781676, 0.7707314803177646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008145825627362421, 0.0, 1.3044802158130038, 0.0, 0.13816622619390675, 1.0534481576985566, 0.0, 0.02324506739913042, 0.0, 0.0, 2.20158286450846, 0.0, 0.26460715747454205, 0.5907365796759182, 0.0, 0.5123121112600272, 0.03550386479693625, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.0, 0.5885226963260081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25830557393019454, 1.0976638011960507, 0.025043422762740086, 0.17773046007279375, 0.005715929431113761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07323387050617254, 0.0, 0.028223255188921492, 0.0, 0.03475540526514852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9377395971546344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041288284973358146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009581012384170293, 0.0, 0.06645500596732509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17479332529769234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008347.638158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008347.638158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9039404002817352, 0.09605959971826485 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n\n>\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon.\"\n\n\nOther questions in this tournament ask [how likely a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/); how many such attacks would occur, if any do; and whether, if one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, they'd cause a total of >10 million fatalities. This question asks how likely a HEMP attack is _if_ there's any offensive nuclear detonation, to get a clearer sense of how correlated the two types of risks are. For further context on this question, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit)." }, { "id": 8541, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", "short_title": "US Rejoins Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024", "url_title": "US Rejoins Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024", "slug": "us-rejoins-iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:02:21.289220Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.252931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8541, "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T16:02:21.289220Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)._\n\n\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\n\n\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions against Iran to the extent previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2024-01-01, 00:00 EST. The order must go into effect before 2024-01-01; a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statement will suffice as a source.\n\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8160/us-iran-war-by-2024/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703964973.323406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703964973.323406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00923373032735695 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.528840920631428, 6.963153496834405, 0.5463178134614636, 0.16163100637482158, 0.015154081077731966, 0.2535603612326728, 0.06433409532524456, 0.047143495092740864, 0.004414835062178744, 0.064826461075906, 0.019367572087097468, 0.006123046409025657, 0.008073752635453043, 0.01695892388129513, 0.00018687652294719, 0.003883756585417698, 7.401282662790744e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011148853322253095, 0.0023690257512047315, 0.24579444256613914, 0.0, 0.0004884690240385973, 0.00457961488106683, 0.0017256088791892754, 0.00038037354373094795, 0.0009094750822577467, 0.0020032125310401917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016057696388046983, 0.0, 0.002264308476666213, 0.0024718770493719843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.253719823385091e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005028411867048572, 0.00021806544493256714, 0.0003335616881676764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012961970979316233, 2.1502526363157286e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002694916038571455, 0.0, 0.005161131574934729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.162097006103202e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015888337356610445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.002757198898792, "coverage": 0.9998512782512967, "baseline_score": 72.80156243881885, "spot_peer_score": 7.170119014523346, "peer_archived_score": 13.002757198898792, "baseline_archived_score": 72.80156243881885, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.170119014523346 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008379.352374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008379.352374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 730, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics. See in particular [a \"by 2023\" version of this same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7840/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2023/)._\n\n\nThe [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. On 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\n\n\nOn 2020-09-13, [President-Elect Biden stated that](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-01/features/returning-progress-iran) if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" [Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa-zarif-idUKKBN27X340) the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"" }, { "id": 8540, "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?", "short_title": "Global agricultural shortfall by 2024", "url_title": "Global agricultural shortfall by 2024", "slug": "global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:51:17.829610Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.503651Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8540, "title": "Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:51:17.829610Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-22T06:59:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\n> \"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\n\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved positively if the yearly total global agricultural crop yield for the calendar year 2022 or 2023 (as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization) is at least 10% lower than agricultural production in the previous calendar year (2021 or 2022, respectively) was.\n\nThe reason for the shortfall does not matter (e.g., it does not have to be related to nuclear conflict)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8540, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055350.300564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055350.300564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022839960395459852 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.579390677693947, 7.396493950722816, 0.23695741057720826, 0.6817716599315848, 0.5985827185850695, 0.9973887075141499, 0.1054708964231785, 0.250160524420701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06461681457593724, 0.04839120839469786, 0.010761927812866369, 0.05439534314291956, 0.06833682780111862, 0.001616738501034817, 0.0, 0.055665072830317144, 0.0, 0.039013390799131784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13909794867037442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25114946191304605, 0.0, 0.05964201228778806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\n> \"A number of catastrophic events could cause a roughly 10% global agricultural shortfall, including a medium-sized asteroid/comet impact (Napier 2008), a large but not super volcanic eruption, full-scale nuclear war if the impacts are less than anticipated (Turco et al. 1990), regional nuclear war (for example, India-Pakistan (Ozdogan et al. 2013)), abrupt regional climate change (Valdes 2011), complete global loss of bees as pollinators (Aizen et al. 2009), a super crop pest or pathogen, and coincident extreme weather, resulting in multiple breadbasket failures (Bailey et al. 2015).\"\n\nBut there's uncertainty about how likely each of those events is, how likely a 10% global agricultural shortfall is given each event, and how likely it is that such a shortfall will occur for some other reason." }, { "id": 8539, "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "short_title": "Statement that only humans can launch nukes", "url_title": "Statement that only humans can launch nukes", "slug": "statement-that-only-humans-can-launch-nukes", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:39:55.774837Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.003450Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8539, "title": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:39:55.774837Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that such a state has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the head of state; the head of the state's ministry of defense or equivalent; a similarly important and relevant officia; head of one of the state's military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the state's nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important diplomacy official from that state such as the state's ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n\n\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044796.481272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044796.481272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03151077154900895 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7820422295225633, 8.936576271662396, 0.0, 0.29371952836752324, 0.11745326059771638, 1.2495566606042905, 0.0, 0.18197306897364698, 0.16948948535457445, 0.0, 0.2244358707019116, 0.0, 0.07588193264035076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019935042740456897, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4278365206393162, 0.06773163967248513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15774725839889664, 0.16007305166974173, 0.026133695039608603, 0.0, 0.01319509196270208, 0.0, 0.0042606242280195635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.022937907506089057, 0.025325464845858035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036966661526580076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.01511014823377393, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010755654095857752, 0.0, 0.0011420111692213952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02073390695131329 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 30.610255428700693, "coverage": 0.9999262902800672, "baseline_score": 58.00828956025154, "spot_peer_score": 27.900331648411676, "peer_archived_score": 30.610255428700693, "baseline_archived_score": 58.00828956025154, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.900331648411676 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704044796.503116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704044796.503116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994292171235423, 0.0005707828764577712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 256, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic." }, { "id": 8537, "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "short_title": "China to affirm only humans can launch nukes", "url_title": "China to affirm only humans can launch nukes", "slug": "china-to-affirm-only-humans-can-launch-nukes", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:23:19.273358Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.598582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8537, "title": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T15:23:19.273358Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that China has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the President of the People's Republic of China; the Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China; the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress; head of one of the Chinese military services; any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Chinese diplomacy official such as the Chinese Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n\n\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965029.149203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965029.149203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.024973741056407678 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.977727882918044, 6.978299603344959, 0.19776846219557181, 0.03492559661360599, 1.1455291794673768, 0.34166256091504577, 0.15529657530188107, 0.0881569413138735, 0.1601313494724224, 0.11960544235882306, 0.021681116202243198, 0.02636788613356748, 0.08693776742610884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07340677790062904, 0.20256275622255956, 0.004665038222800205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14066591302543932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3376335396423815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054167126145610874, 0.0, 0.0016912774913815877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013662399302902292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001425964669780706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.0, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.271438182443827, "coverage": 0.9995532871145292, "baseline_score": 80.08848865463465, "spot_peer_score": 18.391121418380695, "peer_archived_score": 16.271438182443827, "baseline_archived_score": 80.08848865463465, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.391121418380695 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965029.149203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965029.149203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 225, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. 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Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. 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Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. 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See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves positively if there are at least three reputable sources that by 2024 state that Russia has made such a clear and public affirmation. This affirmation must be an official statement by one of the following: the Russian President; Prime Minister; Minister of Defense; Minister of Foreign Affairs; a similarly important and relevant member of the government; the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army; one of the Russian Army's top officers (such as a member of the General Staff or an equivalent body); any government or army body dedicated to overseeing the nuclear arms program, nuclear policy, etc. (or a top official of such a body); or an important Russian diplomacy official such as the Russian Ambassador to the US. We will also count claims made by a spokesperson for the aformentioned people and organizations (unless contested by the person or another key person from the organization).\n\n\n(If a forecaster feels there's a decent chance such an affirmation would be made by a person or entity whose membership on that list is debatable or by a person or entity who isn't on that list but should be, please raise that in the comments.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8536, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934928.853235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934928.853235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022532645415841848 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.907189357335273, 6.292514989032499, 0.4038038676902722, 0.40206549474881026, 0.34029419999880384, 0.6776003876215205, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.27739448734372996, 0.0, 0.2982073449551534, 0.0, 0.03636256811155607, 0.020482295148019, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 0.009604210045876128, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008522131514278471, 0.03010603556612766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014054229761558852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055676650705994916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851424336049953, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00585904551278611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.855816352903368, "coverage": 0.9991794293616935, "baseline_score": 81.34158024936482, "spot_peer_score": 15.757553810425966, "peer_archived_score": 19.855816352903368, "baseline_archived_score": 81.34158024936482, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.757553810425966 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008220.015512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008220.015512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. 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Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8535, "title": "By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T14:26:23.901732Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-04-16T16:35:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-10-27T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-10-27T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-10-27T14:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if the next Nuclear Posture Review (released between the time of this question opening and 31-12-2023) includes clear affirmation that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if a new Nuclear Posture Review is not publicly available by 2024 (but that seems very unlikely)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678961731.554822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678961731.554822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7076526655331146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.08872808112325568, 0.09215390124464654, 0.06124341082421378, 0.07466806826629072, 0.0, 0.059948393998267305, 0.0, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049233607049991815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1345137037522881, 0.13241118465032306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20224332497353187, 0.0, 0.10155422864166669, 0.16098235374781072, 0.05844276089925296, 0.8738508717282191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007926343375474506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22565345225725222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.024480943830187167, 0.4606527189387643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24646082002862074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6621607275305496, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6294025534212135, 1.8390552490183445, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5338394326564748, 1.776523794395366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.5715427250000917, 0.39618411090454325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394188471930934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.17573956450005151, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0077076696736071 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -5.91534054334274, "coverage": 0.44842686310590907, "baseline_score": -46.085761691683395, "spot_peer_score": -1.935950610299739, "peer_archived_score": -5.91534054334274, "baseline_archived_score": -46.085761691683395, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.935950610299739 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1666770521.412391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1666770521.412391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.930003906663859, 0.06999609333614094 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on intersections between nuclear risk and AI. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8531/intersections-between-nuclear-risk-and-ai/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of this topic." }, { "id": 8534, "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", "short_title": "North Korean ICBM Launch by 2024", "url_title": "North Korean ICBM Launch by 2024", "slug": "north-korean-icbm-launch-by-2024", "author_id": 119426, "author_username": "havlickova.blanka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T14:15:52.014591Z", "published_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.129525Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-24T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-10T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-24T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1223, "type": "question_series", "name": "Szilard Fortified Essay Contest", "slug": "nuclear-risk-essay-contest", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/0001edit3_balanced.png", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2021-11-16T13:03:52Z", "close_date": "2022-02-01T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Szilard Fortified Essay Contest! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nThank you for your participation!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-12-20T13:04:01.473729Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1007, "type": "tournament", "name": "Nuclear Risk Tournament", "slug": "nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Nuclear_High_Risk_9fH8FjS_1200x_FrEM87O.jpg", "prize_pool": "2685.50", "start_date": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-07T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "Welcome to the Nuclear Risk Tournament! Key thinkers at Rethink Priorities Think Tank are currently weighing the risks associate with an increasingly nuclear world. Metaculus aims to help Rethink Priorities make these decisions by forecasting the likelihood that these risks and their outcomes will occur.\r\n\r\nHappy predicting!" }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8534, "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T14:15:52.014591Z", "open_time": "2021-11-11T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-16T11:47:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-16T11:47:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-24T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-24T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-10T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-24T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\n\n>\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\n\n\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a missile (ICBM) with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)\n\nNote that:\n\n* The missile does not have to be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice\n\n* Either a test launch or a launch as part of an attack could count toward positive resolution\n\n* For positive resolution, the missile does not have to actually be hosting a nuclear warhead when launched, as long as it is _capable_ of hosting a nuclear warhead\n\n\n**See also:**\n\n*[Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8534, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648137482.245001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648137482.245001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8534153801453211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025360596869753158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033136279379270196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09309804151324053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.678856422873628, 0.5518854617414972, 0.09244601710264838, 0.001873194738889857, 0.9333198310231191, 0.011658931217893395, 0.08938693854809678, 0.0, 0.25562848828361623, 0.0, 0.23637973748025187, 0.38459879885134624, 0.1620609041626402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8711814027912073, 0.07504299001539197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11291834007793779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.755700693487274, 0.30199423264781133, 0.6541259978097677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.406328589758982 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.6480806337861305, "coverage": 0.2741410861033986, "baseline_score": 10.905106019841476, "spot_peer_score": 11.360035350198961, "peer_archived_score": 4.6480806337861305, "baseline_archived_score": 10.905106019841476, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.360035350198961 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1648021538.747935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1648021538.747935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2749463571617128, 0.7250536428382872 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nAccording to [a BBC article released on 19-10-2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58963654):\n\n\n>\"North Korea has carried out a flurry of missile tests in recent weeks, including of what it said were hypersonic and long-range weapons. Some of these tests violate strict international sanctions. The country is specifically prohibited by the United Nations from testing ballistic missiles as well as nuclear weapons. The UN considers ballistic missiles to be more threatening than cruise missiles because they can carry more powerful payloads, have a longer range and can fly faster.\"\n\n\nSee also [a list of North Korean missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests)." }, { "id": 8533, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?", "short_title": "Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?", "url_title": "Xi Jinping Leader of China in 2030?", "slug": "xi-jinping-leader-of-china-in-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-08T12:28:11.562049Z", "published_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T11:11:21.672751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 238, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8533, "title": "Will Xi Jinping continue leading China in 2030?", "created_at": "2021-11-08T12:28:11.562049Z", "open_time": "2021-11-22T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-22T05:54:47.172000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-22T05:54:47.172000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if either:\n\n * Xi is CCP General Secretary on 1 January, 2030. \n * Xi is paramount leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n * Xi is de facto leader of China on 1 January, 2030. \n\nThis question will resolve negative if: \n\n * Any other person is leader on 1 January, 2030. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguous if:\n\n * China ceases to exist as the political entity it is right now", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8533, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763723471.284596, "end_time": 1764924624.161809, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763723471.284596, "end_time": 1764924624.161809, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6305152687709222 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.03424642591274919, 0.0, 0.014806775431391658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04857834494704354, 0.0, 0.0014567830631487583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036598060070594505, 0.012098044724915508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03508821666748736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10288711482858988, 0.0, 0.8412309465192598, 0.006083124454805543, 0.00014664357190288503, 0.0596832546175313, 0.0, 0.04024898859322579, 0.5426992961708329, 0.001277518226995759, 0.25379736046931584, 0.0, 0.021797970517207783, 0.0, 0.04211676553361124, 0.17402221768370696, 0.07989331139470639, 0.0, 0.008210085289450766, 0.05310374842061638, 1.3937215458976833, 0.49142967030666634, 1.3037296684151805, 0.14938207226464903, 0.19081974040872565, 0.0005992752801524581, 0.9542267191966465, 0.10063098007032877, 0.030535506992654, 0.9318953278095268, 1.0889181447496232, 0.021011107359649662, 0.35069042074023127, 0.0001628985407460976, 0.4566255464730179, 2.9895468164632777, 0.5008257418992942, 0.7332892911409731, 0.245031911962181, 1.536336887723828, 2.8190335200336127, 0.0, 0.052694576893993046, 0.0, 0.17156882077318442, 1.8226815880024076, 0.0, 0.10489920790039242, 0.3336064230459966, 0.0, 1.7841142887328254, 0.00017297169632527317, 0.08143334119607078, 0.0, 0.1049354730147036, 1.0711189777742183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5364135021130788, 0.09648880222263109, 0.0, 1.8273012551435048e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35995925111746646, 0.0, 0.7426086641615436 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287659.190598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287659.190598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 213, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4702315010958954, 0.5297684989041046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 32, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 550, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xi Jinping is currently nearing the end of his second term as CCP General Secretary and is expected to make a bid for a third term and win it with a [92% chance according to a current Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/). There is considerable speculation that Xi will pave the way for a much longer tenure [akin to the tenure of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping](https://www.ft.com/content/71b165a6-052d-4d7d-9006-e2e757f40d98). Having China ruled by a single figure with a potentially unlimited tenure might have considerable ramifications for a variety of topics ranging from the West's China policy to global security concerns." }, { "id": 8526, "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", "short_title": "Constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act", "url_title": "Constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act", "slug": "constitutionality-of-bank-secrecy-act", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-06T21:35:57.675925Z", "published_at": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T01:45:41.392846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8526, "title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", "created_at": "2021-11-06T21:35:57.675925Z", "open_time": "2021-11-09T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-11T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-11T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\n\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)) and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.", "resolution_criteria": "If by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "If a case is dismissed or ruled on procedural grounds, such cases will be ignored for the purposes of this question. If the BSA is repealed through legislation, this question will resolve ambiguously", "post_id": 8526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758073531.179044, "end_time": 1764087552.175395, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758073531.179044, "end_time": 1764087552.175395, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6650057679336705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.468278024989938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6759008034148746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287979.070042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287979.070042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3875222451544199, 0.6124777548455801 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\n\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)) and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers." }, { "id": 8525, "title": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", "short_title": "Musk sell >5% of Tesla stock by July 1st 2022", "url_title": "Musk sell >5% of Tesla stock by July 1st 2022", "slug": "musk-sell-5-of-tesla-stock-by-july-1st-2022", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-06T20:32:02.856936Z", "published_at": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.530682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8525, "title": "[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-06T20:32:02.856936Z", "open_time": "2021-11-06T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-07T14:38:30.678118Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-07T14:38:30.678118Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-11-14T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457064697782489088) on November 6th 2021,\n\n> Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock.\n\n> Do you support this?\n\n> I will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes\n\nAs of the time of writing this question, \"Yes\" is winning by 55.6% to 44.4%.\n\n***Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if before July 1st 2022 credible media reports that Elon Musk has sold more than 5% of his Tesla shares, as compared to the number of shares he owned at the time of his Twitter poll, after taking into account [stock dilution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_dilution) and [stock splits](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp) which may occur in the meantime. If Musk gains additional shares in the company (eg. by exercising stock options), he will need to sell *an additional amount* to reach the 5% decrease at the time of the twitter poll.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1636865380.337084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1636865380.337084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6461853511932011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9034486857932064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30675771358978204, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.06799015350528125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013645782893394, 0.0, 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8524, "title": "Will Biden’s Build Back Better Budget include a requirement for banks to report financial data on accounts receiving sufficiently large deposits?", "created_at": "2021-11-06T19:58:21.073703Z", "open_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-09T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-09T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-03-21T20:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-03-21T20:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-03-21T20:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \n\nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\n\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the 2022 federal budget includes a requirement for banks to report total annual withdrawals and deposits for accounts which receive deposits over a specified amount. This question will resolve positively if such a requirement is passed into law, regardless of what size the threshold is ($600, 10,000, or otherwise). This will resolve negatively if the 2022 federal budget does not include this provision.\n\nThis question will close retroactively 24 hours before the 2022 budget is passed by both the Senate and the House of Representatives", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640015445.235792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640015445.235792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29922062068188804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1153080594426832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9142719251680123, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 2.6542591693890425, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5428796992396834, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4697905976254964, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.3301391961443765, "coverage": 0.999807705292893, "baseline_score": 29.0224541448332, "spot_peer_score": 4.5321673450023745, "peer_archived_score": 1.3301391961443765, "baseline_archived_score": 29.0224541448332, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5321673450023745 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640015445.254977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640015445.254977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7730072598317983, 0.22699274016820173 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Biden administration’s “[Build Back Better](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text)” budget plan, a key legislative priority, is projected to cost $3.5 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise. In this case, bill proposes to raise revenues by tinkering with financial surveillance requirements in order to spot unpaid taxes. \n\nIn the initial version of the plan, financial custodians would be obligated to turn over financial data on accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals [worth more than $600](https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-irs-push-democrats-to-require-banks-to-report-annual-account-flows-11631727020), purportedly to root out “billionaires” who are underpaying taxes. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to calm nerves by claiming the Treasury Department would not have access to individual transactions but rather would only be able to determine whether there was a discrepancy between account information and individual tax reporting, critics pointed out that millions of Americans would be caught in this net intended to root out “billionaire” tax cheats. Responding to this pressure, the threshold was [raised](https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-bank-reporting-democrats-11634658560) to annual withdrawals and deposits worth more than $10,000.\n\nBanking interests as well as the cryptocurrency industry and privacy activists oppose this issue. The Biden administration has engaged in many public appearances to try to sell the plan to the public, as both this spending bill as well as the general move to “tax billionaires” are key priorities." }, { "id": 8523, "title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?", "short_title": "IRS Designates Crypto Miners Brokers by 2025", "url_title": "IRS Designates Crypto Miners Brokers by 2025", "slug": "irs-designates-crypto-miners-brokers-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-06T19:46:59.412780Z", "published_at": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.917516Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:48:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8523, "title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?", "created_at": "2021-11-06T19:46:59.412780Z", "open_time": "2021-11-07T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-09T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-09T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:53:31.948834Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\n\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\n\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, by January 20, 2025, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before January 20, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1736984537.164316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.226 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1736984537.164316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.226 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1194718871700221 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.330752611253724, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.716439045345342, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5055352057481977, 0.37974261668515136, 0.3445918901109067, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.0, 0.2933315923252144, 0.005716411657967498, 0.5029882706621958, 0.2756414657806266, 0.08867683223307754, 0.724080881752338, 0.051118274222999596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4883893588953512, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.887093918629624, "peer_score": 8.576650794805365, "coverage": 0.9999923662177278, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999923662177278, "spot_peer_score": 3.1770059934774917, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 52.887093918629624, "peer_archived_score": 8.576650794805365, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1770059934774917, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287358.200949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287358.200949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9161466947971487, 0.08385330520285127 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\n\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\n\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained." }, { "id": 8517, "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?", "short_title": "TPLF to isolate Addis Ababa before 2022", "url_title": "TPLF to isolate Addis Ababa before 2022", "slug": "tplf-to-isolate-addis-ababa-before-2022", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-06T06:34:00.725115Z", "published_at": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.675637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8517, "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?", "created_at": "2021-11-06T06:34:00.725115Z", "open_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-10T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-10T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T01:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \n\nThe [A1 trunk route](https://sites.google.com/site/roadnumberingsystems/home/countries/ethiopia) between Addis Ababa and Djibouti is a strategic highway link, which Tigrayan forces [say they are trying to cut off](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nine-ethiopian-groups-form-anti-government-alliance-2021-11-05/). Given that Ethiopia is land-locked, the port in Djibouti is the [main conduit of trade for the country](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html).", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before 2022:\n\n* armed conflict is ongoing between the TPLF and forces aligned with Abiy Ahmed Ali or his *de facto* successor\n\n**AND**\n\n* the A1 trunk route between Addis Ababa and Djibouti:\n\n * is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front for any contiguous 24h period\n\n **OR**\n\n * is for security reasons largely impassible without the co-operation of armed forces aligned with the TPLF for any contiguous 120h period\n\n*If the A1 is seized or made impassible at any time before the end of 2021, the contiguous 24h and 120h periods may extend into 2022.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639843611.241106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639843611.241106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.35138591208371656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27361438909126823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 2.459519062230506, 0.0, 0.41722580232225936, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.2634516521091128, 0.28697040130296847, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.2916105219428694, 0.6327308021421649, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03376250822308147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.1957616757710685, "coverage": 0.9932682170021542, "baseline_score": -47.89299956778724, "spot_peer_score": -5.390581900520445, "peer_archived_score": 6.1957616757710685, "baseline_archived_score": -47.89299956778724, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.390581900520445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639843611.257762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639843611.257762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6773211395275469, 0.32267886047245314 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \n\nThe [A1 trunk route](https://sites.google.com/site/roadnumberingsystems/home/countries/ethiopia) between Addis Ababa and Djibouti is a strategic highway link, which Tigrayan forces [say they are trying to cut off](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nine-ethiopian-groups-form-anti-government-alliance-2021-11-05/). Given that Ethiopia is land-locked, the port in Djibouti is the [main conduit of trade for the country](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html)." }, { "id": 8516, "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", "short_title": "50% of US Adults Own AR by 2050", "url_title": "50% of US Adults Own AR by 2050", "slug": "50-of-us-adults-own-ar-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-05T20:15:35.710627Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T19:14:30.206816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8516, "title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-05T20:15:35.710627Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-02-01T21:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:14:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\n\n>an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\n\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\n\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\n\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762110859.998774, "end_time": 1769771392.217145, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762110859.998774, "end_time": 1769771392.217145, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5967626061436665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5019199986303498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06258551030128127, 0.07561306189923878, 0.0, 0.02849461598813083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6448172684846089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32507244182524914, 0.0, 1.1501617250682759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31337461538095807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9367183377327922, 0.0, 0.8218839828782702, 0.01698211627615795, 1.2946000303343599, 0.0, 0.014742156022549508, 0.6468001540119475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022232047570948, 0.543308524129585, 0.11791581372118576, 0.0, 0.2194278625504006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23109044273477236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01945816775464467, 0.09166238998882277, 0.7520598761925308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08332611069851885, 0.18616056073700932, 0.9770155182436193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3594290513956751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0458343517788204, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.05025074089134997, 0.1441958114546953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00926838856481337 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287763.659089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287763.659089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49978836091835444, 0.5002116390816456 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\n\n>an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\n\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\n\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/)." }, { "id": 8515, "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", "short_title": "By 2050 Genetic Engineering to Raise IQ", "url_title": "By 2050 Genetic Engineering to Raise IQ", "slug": "by-2050-genetic-engineering-to-raise-iq", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-05T18:01:51.287906Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T10:21:30.737473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T18:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T18:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 255, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8515, "title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", "created_at": "2021-11-05T18:01:51.287906Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-20T09:38:25.223679Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-20T09:38:25.223679Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T18:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T18:57:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T18:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)) Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\n\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, **there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence** or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\n\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\n\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762787972.153792, "end_time": 1769805100.607855, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762787972.153792, "end_time": 1769805100.607855, "forecaster_count": 240, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5930003435881716 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.20939243512194114, 0.316746715691579, 0.000310994634690153, 0.05381902257471938, 0.09642527269260777, 0.02467148237017077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021026552425072557, 0.0, 0.013119529105573707, 0.005536995555444352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7707601680681416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4999343606031411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012260201924522698, 0.7990785289458734, 0.0, 0.00609901168722857, 0.0009606219300004103, 0.0, 0.6446261339755515, 0.0, 0.23310540698712903, 0.937362907071022, 0.031918245194001306, 0.4606032587757239, 0.7135691525165028, 0.05599946331737713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8229535507696923, 0.04585551798707767, 0.5050125377493915, 1.0212139637344505e-05, 0.23022750881110704, 0.5529376261852254, 0.06060633554767741, 0.004119871172873231, 0.21742774375116014, 0.00232518397086929, 1.107516651216562, 0.010847100975822999, 0.8351421018771492, 0.0630919332560704, 0.3792887783100497, 0.11346077252921069, 0.33160699501203794, 0.5352876598864518, 0.0, 0.2295836180730924, 0.9464160851358503, 0.0009058362474454506, 0.13676473179447704, 0.46859219377152217, 0.6496366326310343, 1.1350174700548292, 0.044291584003527014, 1.4873415439773734, 0.06723265624439019, 0.0, 1.697030880655379, 0.7575548973146243, 1.0702583680869082, 0.0, 0.2881976802158837, 2.3672549679012627, 0.0004327706970523997, 0.16853291887498745, 0.8784099427839449, 1.0111989709448135, 1.5265662215159388, 0.0, 0.14027028276911527, 0.0, 0.7216734723669403, 0.26268664161230115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5792127723655425, 0.0002362771786536989, 0.0007132189274244383, 0.7964460686413641, 0.0, 0.0, 7.693500092217766e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34797641703062065 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289590.27918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 241, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289590.27918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 241, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5829911959486378, 0.4170088040513622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 51, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 597, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)) Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\n\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, **there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence** or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that." } ] }
