Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=4580
{ "count": 6392, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=4560", "results": [ { "id": 8513, "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "short_title": "Addis Ababa falls to TPLF before June 2022", "url_title": "Addis Ababa falls to TPLF before June 2022", "slug": "addis-ababa-falls-to-tplf-before-june-2022", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-05T07:59:37.906883Z", "published_at": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.337238Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2967, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future Perfect 2022 Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.779450Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:44.135516Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8513, "title": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "created_at": "2021-11-05T07:59:37.906883Z", "open_time": "2021-11-08T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-09T21:12:00.799098Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-09T21:12:00.799098Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-06-01T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-06-01T17:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-03-18T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It has been a little over [one year](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-addis-ababa-abiy-ahmed-bcbd0980e5a1c9af4b55f5f489d83d36) since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a [disputed regional election](https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-defies-pm-abiy-with-illegal-election-1) and [decades of tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War#Background). Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been [reversed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-59151370) — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have [advanced into neighboring regions](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/ethiopias-capital-is-under-threat/21806092), namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are [within 200 miles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/06/ethiopia-addis-ababa-tplf/) of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an [alliance with other opposition groups](https://apnews.com/article/africa-kenya-ethiopia-abiy-ahmed-jeffrey-feltman-16075161e2badda09eeb50ca07a43840), including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently [declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/world/africa/ethiopia-tigray-eight-groups.html). \n\n***Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?***\n\nResolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:\n\n* the National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front\n\n* who are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces\n\n* and who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1647618498.03616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 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"2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-02-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8512, "title": "Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?", "created_at": "2021-11-05T07:48:10.005448Z", "open_time": "2022-02-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-02-05T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-02-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) is a type of computation that harnesses the collective properties of quantum states, such as superposition, interference, and entanglement, to perform calculations. [Quantum supremacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_supremacy) or quantum advantage is the goal of demonstrating that a programmable quantum device can solve a problem that no classical computer can solve in any feasible amount of time (irrespective of the usefulness of the problem).\n\nWhile machine learning algorithms are used to compute immense quantities of data, [quantum machine learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_machine_learning) utilizes qubits and quantum operations or specialized quantum systems to improve computational speed and data storage done by algorithms in a program.\n\n***Will quantum-enhanced machine learning be demonstrated by 2040?***\n\nThis question will resolve as \"Yes\" if a single quantum computer satisfies all of the following criteria at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040:\n\n* unambiguously capable of quantum advantage on some possibly unrelated task\n* utilizing quantum effects for the purpose of enhancing machine learning; utilizing only classical part of a quantum computer is not sufficient\n* capable of baseline machine learning; we will define baseline as exceeding performance of either:\n * 85% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet with or without additional training data\n * [IMPALA](https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01561v3) on any subset of at least 10 Atari games from the ALE on 200M steps\n * [BERT](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04805) on any subset of at least 5 GLUE or SuperGLUE individual benchmarks\n * any other benchmark for classical machine learning that is significantly and unambiguously more difficult than all 3 baselines above\n\nThe question can resolve based on a blog post, scientific paper or other type of announcement from a credible source. In case of significant ambiguity the question should default to waiting for independent replication before positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761767343.880896, "end_time": 1765275848.770138, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761767343.880896, "end_time": 1765275848.770138, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5575006430567273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02484819987064165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14546164288094451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4515161893764975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03383492044223947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.696871852619822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6734437162439387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807644771542133, 0.0, 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"forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4044038428097789, 0.5955961571902211 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 8509, "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by December 31, 2031?", "short_title": "Meta Reports 1B Active Users by 2031", "url_title": "Meta Reports 1B Active Users by 2031", "slug": "meta-reports-1b-active-users-by-2031", "author_id": 109118, "author_username": "CaptchaSamurai", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-04T19:38:23.097924Z", "published_at": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T09:48:45.725694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8509, "title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by December 31, 2031?", "created_at": "2021-11-04T19:38:23.097924Z", "open_time": "2021-11-07T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-08T16:40:58.785730Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-08T16:40:58.785730Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will a technology replace screens?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/)\n\n----\n\nIn [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people.\n\n- Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) reports one billion or more (\\( \\geq 10^9\\)), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined) in any public financial report between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2032.\n\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763632115.119459, "end_time": 1764693132.650494, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763632115.119459, "end_time": 1764693132.650494, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2893188347109949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11039232781353656, 0.5561752230564899, 0.0, 0.08926193309951222, 1.447355506386538, 0.06799015350528125, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.5148679163731269, 0.40904684876105685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034822177385446344, 0.0060744525241443175, 0.24847282533205606, 1.8280752541067031, 0.0, 0.4779267439760351, 0.17787874929819697, 1.3067088300941965, 0.032753212234852405, 0.00744199554431497, 2.0326327480744633, 2.100682465651251, 1.191685804708949, 0.25133189794862565, 0.0, 0.02228963613171123, 0.0, 0.4798203352552923, 0.0, 0.7779598889264538, 0.049416225711534076, 0.18819464988019627, 0.9078511814794927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19142031140958948, 0.019036745262652727, 0.0, 0.0027408287615106786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7350388750185955, 0.0021168258563742832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06341426086404857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.12378052259604357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07284764691086593, 0.0, 0.012006953225304347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004907850359705531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028374229916521676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287301.637896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287301.637896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8555455237759658, 0.14445447622403418 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 274, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will a technology replace screens?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/)\n\n----\n\nIn [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people.\n\n- Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\"" }, { "id": 8505, "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", "short_title": "20% Embryo-Screened Births US by 2050", "url_title": "20% Embryo-Screened Births US by 2050", "slug": "20-embryo-screened-births-us-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-04T16:45:25.235547Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.405995Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8505, "title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", "created_at": "2021-11-04T16:45:25.235547Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-12-31T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)) Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html) the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282(07)01216-2/fulltext).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733767760.522465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733767760.522465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5542571252519951 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.4038273572608976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3397520381310352, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5180551961933301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24626067804041152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7993583220879903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3836210069412376, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.29317339516391583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.706248820627773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289388.813645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289388.813645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7391696797435456, 0.2608303202564543 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)) Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716) where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html) the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282(07)01216-2/fulltext)." }, { "id": 8504, "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?", "short_title": "US Sign Killer Robot Ban by 2031", "url_title": "US Sign Killer Robot Ban by 2031", "slug": "us-sign-killer-robot-ban-by-2031", "author_id": 119050, "author_username": "crule", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-04T16:26:33.545574Z", "published_at": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T22:44:30.634300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:34.172149Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8504, "title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?", "created_at": "2021-11-04T16:26:33.545574Z", "open_time": "2021-11-25T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-27T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-02T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \n\nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \n\nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \n\nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \n\nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, by Jan 1, 2031, the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times), or **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8504, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763505859.870823, "end_time": 1763924776.277285, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763505859.870823, "end_time": 1763924776.277285, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08381030089317941 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6525656508175627, 0.9378654045962305, 2.3114664407739447, 0.0, 0.0, 1.845792017275683, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.27523552331992024, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288932.09102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288932.09102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9410285128490007, 0.05897148715099934 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \n\nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \n\nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \n\nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \n\nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban." }, { "id": 8499, "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?", "short_title": "Libor End Date Extension", "url_title": "Libor End Date Extension", "slug": "libor-end-date-extension", "author_id": 119492, "author_username": "David_Roman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-04T15:09:25.015873Z", "published_at": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.164133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-03T11:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-03T11:05:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8499, "title": "Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?", "created_at": "2021-11-04T15:09:25.015873Z", "open_time": "2021-11-21T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-23T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-23T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-03T11:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-03T11:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-03T11:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\n\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\n\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until January 1, 2023, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from July 1, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by June 30, 2023, [ICE Benchmark Association](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor) announces any further delay in the phasing out of Libor rates. This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the delay involves a so-called “synthetic” methodology so that the rate is no longer representative of the underlying market", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688079570.557485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.351 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688079570.557485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.351 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.649, 0.351 ], "means": [ 0.3617481450186889 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 1.2730896072545672, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1848204221051952, 0.0, 0.8245750534074638, 1.0112763025002947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9345093625842941, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4608423369902641, 0.059105746561956225, 0.03268672417676853, 0.6684294184178742, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.1236893006961, "coverage": 0.8491026953397329, "baseline_score": -13.437941766367109, "spot_peer_score": -45.0393272669095, "peer_archived_score": 4.1236893006961, "baseline_archived_score": -13.437941766367109, "spot_peer_archived_score": -45.0393272669095 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680163078.30805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680163078.30805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6474427451035526, 0.3525572548964474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Libor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor), the floating rate used in all sorts of financial contracts from student loans to derivates, served its purpose for quite a while, but it brought down by abuse and manipulation by the British banks that set it. This became evident a decade ago when several people [went to jail for manipulating Libor](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/understanding-libor-scandal), sometimes [so blatantly that it was hilarious](https://www.businessinsider.com/read-the-bloomberg-chats-that-got-a-former-rbs-libor-trader-paul-white-banned-for-life-2016-4?op=1). In recent years, financial authorities across the globe have been looking at ways to move away from Libor, and multiple solutions have been proposed.\n\nIn the US and other countries of the Americas, the overnight guaranteed funding rate (SOFR), is slowly replacing Libor. It’s not perfect, but it’s a good alternative. However, it’s significantly lower than Libor, as it is a rate for essentially risk-free loans secured by Treasury bonds, while Libor incorporates the credit risk of banks. Libor is now around three basis points (0.03%) above but historically it has been rather around 10 basis points (0.1%).\n\nContracts in SOFR are already incorporating extra costs to account for this difference, but there’s uncertainty in the market. ICE Benchmark Administration, the Libor rate provider, intended to phase out many Libor rates at the start of 2022, but [announced a delay in September](https://www.theice.com/iba/libor), for a \"synthetic\" extension on some GBP and JPY rates until January 1, 2023, while no US dollar Libor rate will be provided from July 1, 2023." }, { "id": 8495, "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", "short_title": "Fewer Than 400 US Colleges by 2050", "url_title": "Fewer Than 400 US Colleges by 2050", "slug": "fewer-than-400-us-colleges-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-04T02:01:15.428982Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T21:34:12.657119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8495, "title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", "created_at": "2021-11-04T02:01:15.428982Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2056-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763230673.039686, "end_time": 1769011255.750476, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.309 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763230673.039686, "end_time": 1769011255.750476, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.309 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6910000000000001, 0.309 ], "means": [ 0.30685482046873486 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289571.91026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289571.91026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8099008282488415, 0.19009917175115854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%." }, { "id": 8493, "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", "short_title": "Half of US College Students Remote in 2050", "url_title": "Half of US College Students Remote in 2050", "slug": "half-of-us-college-students-remote-in-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-11-03T21:17:24.409541Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:51:50.509496Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8493, "title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", "created_at": "2021-11-03T21:17:24.409541Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2053-12-31T22:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:14:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T22:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80) If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\n\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761220464.144938, "end_time": 1769598945.528728, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.4216092527 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761220464.144938, "end_time": 1769598945.528728, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.4216092527 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5783907473000001, 0.4216092527 ], "means": [ 0.42746730874747824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3309518216528762, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27386023833266276, 0.8379487954001852, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 1.763083472094701, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288851.287168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288851.287168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8179255327644525, 0.18207446723554757 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80)." }, { "id": 8484, "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", "short_title": "Trafalgar Group vs. 538 Polling Average 2022", "url_title": "Trafalgar Group vs. 538 Polling Average 2022", "slug": "trafalgar-group-vs-538-polling-average-2022", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-03T18:29:02.435355Z", "published_at": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.473384Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T20:42:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8484, "title": "Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?", "created_at": "2021-11-03T18:29:02.435355Z", "open_time": "2021-11-18T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-19T03:40:14.314778Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-19T03:40:14.314778Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T20:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-22T20:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-11-08T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\n\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution will be determined by comparing the performance of the most recent poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group for each of the Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections in the 2022 elections taking place on November 8, 2022, to the 538 polling average on the day after the final day of the corresponding Trafalgar poll. The difference between the top two candidates by final vote share will be compared to the difference between those candidates in the FiveThirtyEight polling average and final Trafalgar Polls. The average absolute value of the difference between actual result and polling will be calculated for each. If the Trafalgar Group average difference is closer to zero than that of FiveThirtyEight then this resolves positively.\n\nRaces where Trafalgar Group does not produce a poll within one month of the election date will not be included in the average. In the event the average difference for FiveThirtyEight and Trafalgar Group is the same this resolves ambiguously.\n\n---\n**Resolution Example Using Fake Numbers:** \nSuppose for three races the final results were as follows, where positive values mean the Democrat was ahead of the Republican in the final results and polls. TG stands for Trafalgar Group.\n\n| Race | Final Result | TG Final Poll | TG Error | 538 Polling Avg | 538 Error |\n|-------|--------------|---------------|----------|----------------|-----------|\n| A | +2.3 | +1.5 | 0.8 | +3.1 | 0.8 |\n| B | +1.2 | -1.1 | 2.3 | +2.5 | 1.3 |\n| C | -3.4 | -1.2 | 2.2 | -4.0 | 0.6 |\n\nBased on the above the average error of the Trafalgar Group would be 1.77 and the average error of the FiveThirtyEight polling average would be 0.90. If the example were all of the elections being counted this question would resolve negatively since the FiveThirtyEight error is closer to zero", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667872669.338141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667872669.338141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4133732586467539 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02951742757107075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004541723449504015, 0.3455057246259332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026921361684113475, 1.515408902150929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5835742981091498, 0.0, 2.1883355540236744, 0.0, 0.8072158159543249, 0.31412629376580753, 0.08284443762863267, 0.19916078090937095, 0.44279550561171177, 0.11079946273564689, 0.007620644183175067, 0.8766406758712031, 1.6113704566652798, 0.44097907643079276, 0.3243305309355069, 0.9752792051042092, 0.9457962723934501, 0.3145364109035669, 0.054994768700265866, 0.06887619374122553, 0.0, 0.1917561489620048, 1.045301897896271, 0.02451433138720702, 0.3915107710373727, 0.0, 0.07450598937243832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002087949332596925, 0.0, 0.23453145474236464, 0.3682149037993449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5280343030196664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15589515649005067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20519356765151792 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.250076988696572, "coverage": 0.9997754690714443, "baseline_score": 29.973244050053637, "spot_peer_score": -5.385836596544599, "peer_archived_score": 1.250076988696572, "baseline_archived_score": 29.973244050053637, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.385836596544599 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1667872669.366739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1667872669.366739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7494587144596272, 0.25054128554037286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Polling accuracy has been frequently discussed after most polls underestimated Trump's performance in 2016 and 2020. Some [have argued](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/11/10/21551766/election-polls-results-wrong-david-shor) that this is a result of systemic issues that are difficult to address, such as non-response bias. Others [have suggested](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated/) that while it's possible there are systemic issues the bias is unlikely to be consistent over time due to pollsters adjusting after big misses.\n\n[Trafalgar Group](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/) is a polling firm that does polling for state and national elections. They have been [criticized](https://web.archive.org/web/20210915164337/https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1437984246703038465) by some [political](https://web.archive.org/web/20200828150653/https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1299362704101175302) [forecasters](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309175524/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301894366886326272) as [inaccurate](https://web.archive.org/web/20201029155819/https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321843425268948992) or biased toward conservatives. However, after the 2020 election FiveThirtyEight upgraded Trafalgar from a [C- pollster rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group) to an [A-](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/trafalgar-group/), and in a podcast episode Nate Silver [apologized to Trafalgar for prior off the cuff remarks](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-the-gold-standard-for-polling-has-changed/).\n\nIf there is a systemic polling bias that underweights the chances of Republican candidates, one possible test might be to compare the performance of the FiveThirtyEight polling average in 2022 to the performance of a polling firm which some view as right-biased, like Trafalgar Group." }, { "id": 8483, "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", "short_title": "Trump Victory if Biden v. Trump 2024", "url_title": "Trump Victory if Biden v. Trump 2024", "slug": "trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-03T05:52:15.755626Z", "published_at": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.352359Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 174, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T00:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T00:51:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 850, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8483, "title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", "created_at": "2021-11-03T05:52:15.755626Z", "open_time": "2021-11-17T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-18T14:45:59.175000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-18T14:45:59.175000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-12T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T00:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T00:53:07.242027Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-07T00:51:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\n\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\n\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ ) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8483, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730909094.239693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 847, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730909094.239693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 847, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8379218303853508 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.603607632555833e-05, 0.4161799629140946, 0.002235557990918172, 3.988148165607945e-05, 0.0, 0.004784870346302574, 0.0, 0.0, 3.878944627240386e-06, 0.0005781946340901234, 0.0005314113462070486, 1.187524597022308e-06, 0.006484198724337131, 0.00024694410265620003, 0.0003488425408764296, 0.00018377520132753131, 0.0026028486139441187, 1.572937747909795e-08, 0.003328770790657638, 1.042848439114558e-06, 0.31600510016554206, 7.848386145880419e-09, 9.230927610277952e-06, 2.1216571954618576e-05, 0.006817007323507075, 0.007746548397560426, 0.00023126751438923477, 7.499461584618699e-07, 0.006162193777981922, 0.0, 0.02086083952718754, 5.706651944254318e-06, 0.004192643722793687, 0.0006347982145545396, 0.0012063395952046575, 0.0057263732277190674, 0.0005072411642820626, 0.012326714263025949, 0.002366808664856692, 2.6626453256040363e-08, 0.8019827567948357, 0.00011807299769377149, 0.0008794262574297548, 0.000899346957396263, 0.01883343268123469, 0.04439733280514567, 0.04971717493681074, 0.3745623285946933, 0.4571780616453622, 0.00957251147836355, 0.26614102697231334, 0.2068616573902945, 0.005399892873945966, 4.35977714926482e-10, 0.00042313093842392653, 0.2938190492319252, 0.359950840440297, 0.0006830078518707285, 0.0, 0.0020607493526705787, 1.0892956213928437, 0.03217531802221048, 7.623597781795765e-09, 0.0426658381190691, 0.2896375429156138, 0.8570300148942509, 0.31301925784530815, 0.26563615451721845, 0.3692463393271414, 0.07037900498582533, 2.488139478628952, 0.0126687476179177, 0.5587276064704622, 0.15798770256797687, 0.18625984457722408, 2.471837811844464, 0.8600672044592692, 0.010814656659002289, 0.5371157482434776, 0.6910911437617072, 2.3297404773782895, 0.9031875551083115, 0.804856849840301, 0.9424522330131312, 0.6626077770874453, 6.051726830868368, 3.3242730028116245, 0.7215420997876253, 0.3563197680353929, 0.1220573305959449, 7.180469153666028, 1.2675343152442506, 0.14278259036752214, 0.4351065322186058, 0.004929538455077549, 2.351621687985833, 0.6177772247688607, 0.0, 0.3687487239457088, 13.100553750459309 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288451.132622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 849, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288451.132622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 849, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22825186319406532, 0.7717481368059347 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 44, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2852, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\n\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\n\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ ) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency." }, { "id": 8475, "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", "short_title": "Hanson vs. Barnett bet on ems first", "url_title": "Hanson vs. Barnett bet on ems first", "slug": "hanson-vs-barnett-bet-on-ems-first", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-01T19:12:12.726524Z", "published_at": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T20:41:25.435913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T08:38:39.033529Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 8475, "title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", "created_at": "2021-11-01T19:12:12.726524Z", "open_time": "2021-11-04T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-05T00:58:23.341860Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-05T00:58:23.341860Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2121-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2061-10-03T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\n\n> OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\n\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\n\n> I agree to this bet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\n\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8475, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763237691.33888, "end_time": 1764023096.034707, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763237691.33888, "end_time": 1764023096.034707, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03419095789628039 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0079568680575086, 6.364137675120986, 0.12311969438507567, 1.301034677813206, 0.26426126597696126, 1.2783302419079887, 0.10066260077593363, 0.24750439540471444, 0.007807124044234717, 0.05025074089134997, 0.4380198073063507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48206548363584967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018151805628332837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04039659446984174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025194092214829794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08332611069851885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03607169459898251 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287891.206997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287891.206997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9873870887060757, 0.012612911293924228 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\n\n> OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\n\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\n\n> I agree to this bet." }, { "id": 8474, "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", "short_title": "Price of CA water NQH20 over 2,500 by 2050", "url_title": "Price of CA water NQH20 over 2,500 by 2050", "slug": "price-of-ca-water-nqh20-over-2500-by-2050", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-01T18:05:47.365509Z", "published_at": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.665663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8474, "title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-11-01T18:05:47.365509Z", "open_time": "2021-11-05T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-06-27T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\n \nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)) trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\n \nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8474, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740023159.930768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740023159.930768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6022005369546112 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 1.520551248330176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8005743751147438, 0.04978706836786394, 0.2581411659280016, 0.7972830703873104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287058.149653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287058.149653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43938061478220913, 0.5606193852177909 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it’s treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\n \nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)) trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\n \nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200." }, { "id": 8470, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?", "short_title": "Japan Response If China Invades Taiwan 2035", "url_title": "Japan Response If China Invades Taiwan 2035", "slug": "japan-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-11-01T01:16:59.815347Z", "published_at": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:07:05.259384Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 188, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T13:26:37.997366Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8470, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2021-11-01T01:16:59.815347Z", "open_time": "2022-07-23T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-07-25T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-07-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n--- \n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-china-taiwan-tensions-rise-japan-begins-preparing-for-possible-conflict-11630067601) that Japan is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. This is notable as Japan has not fought in any wars since the end of World War 2.\n\nThis question asks: will Japan fight on Taiwan's side if Taiwan is invaded by China?", "resolution_criteria": "If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If China *does* invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as **Yes** if Japan responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10923), China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:\n\n* The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/) and the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) **both** report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\n\n* At least 1,000 military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army) have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.\n\nJapan will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Japanese government or Japanese military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763330814.52851, "end_time": 1767004226.696417, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763330814.52851, "end_time": 1767004226.696417, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.47617159518204827 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4280049901012476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27946740676519644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29327480948315726, 0.019490964285932586, 0.03429558029839285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47172022358454563, 0.0, 0.408548459480469, 0.005019651759584283, 0.0, 0.0008117418187896163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31622910741376137, 0.011361536607641616, 0.7318355629992906, 1.2084315504161798, 0.0, 1.8390434741748085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013051657401365055, 0.07375865202682182, 0.5635826501527941, 0.0005553875425660218, 0.16246048189401083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6280002328306394, 0.0, 0.17459814517136352, 0.05495986147498624, 0.0, 0.8449680777869333, 0.0, 0.9187125552368371, 0.003628448840774233, 0.6932799544407665, 1.7825129222835976, 1.0149543724321808, 0.8784299843719563, 0.7888318844560377, 0.032270645605514445, 0.019980349449785592, 0.4645782343725303, 0.010220919254369059, 0.0, 0.0, 1.561036258322444, 0.03868320419497753, 0.0, 0.010161534668449653, 0.7701782117966169, 0.0013348317318631925, 0.90058781931655, 0.009863146549369884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11248671626885207, 0.21883328379980627, 0.0, 0.5145313006568756, 0.0, 0.15611668389078018, 0.2889032530932042, 0.24149391293707229, 0.07702964736766821, 0.10110749860446483, 1.2804125192572267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006834988728375071, 0.007366989724210423, 0.106658992583383, 0.048966211909997455, 0.002810515411244536, 0.1017535250105984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.69946786383205e-05, 0.013438780757339565 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289248.610389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289248.610389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.561145398115704, 0.438854601884296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 397, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n--- \n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-china-taiwan-tensions-rise-japan-begins-preparing-for-possible-conflict-11630067601) that Japan is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. This is notable as Japan has not fought in any wars since the end of World War 2.\n\nThis question asks: will Japan fight on Taiwan's side if Taiwan is invaded by China?" }, { "id": 8463, "title": "Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?", "short_title": "The United States and Democracy", "url_title": "The United States and Democracy", "slug": "the-united-states-and-democracy", "author_id": 119366, "author_username": "rroggio", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-31T03:00:24.879574Z", "published_at": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T02:23:05.688536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-30T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-30T22:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8463, "title": "Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?", "created_at": "2021-10-31T03:00:24.879574Z", "open_time": "2022-03-28T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-03-30T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-03-30T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-30T22:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-30T22:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-30T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Democracy Index is an index compiled and maintained by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based private company which publishes The Economist newspaper. \n\nThe EIU defines their index as \"[...] a snapshot of the state of world democracy for 165 independent states and two territories.\" The index itself is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation, and political culture. The methodology, in turn, is simple: they ask 60 questions related to the aforementioned categories, and with the answers, they rank the countries as either a: democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime. \n\n[The rankings for 2020](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/) depict a trend for the United States: namely, the United States has not won -- but has lost -- any points since the ranking was created in 2006. \n\nA good breakdown of the point system, and how points are awarded per category, is [available on Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index)", "resolution_criteria": "If at any point in time the United States achieves a point lower than a 7 before 2040, the question resolves positively. If the United States never drops below a 7, the question resolves negatively. If the index is defunct any time before 2040, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nRelated Questions:\n\n- [What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762654975.370833, "end_time": 1764215821.824844, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762654975.370833, "end_time": 1764215821.824844, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4640665879255492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.24600362340032655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.16019303642535304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3710431120032778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.002689717750306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3446906852301696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.585722325258019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1160614035769407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288834.020478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288834.020478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8219214288349481, 0.1780785711650519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Democracy Index is an index compiled and maintained by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based private company which publishes The Economist newspaper. \n\nThe EIU defines their index as \"[...] a snapshot of the state of world democracy for 165 independent states and two territories.\" The index itself is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation, and political culture. The methodology, in turn, is simple: they ask 60 questions related to the aforementioned categories, and with the answers, they rank the countries as either a: democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime. \n\n[The rankings for 2020](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/) depict a trend for the United States: namely, the United States has not won -- but has lost -- any points since the ranking was created in 2006. \n\nA good breakdown of the point system, and how points are awarded per category, is [available on Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index)" }, { "id": 8460, "title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", "short_title": "IMF Approves Debt Service for US by 2025", "url_title": "IMF Approves Debt Service for US by 2025", "slug": "imf-approves-debt-service-for-us-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-29T22:54:27.637766Z", "published_at": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.899082Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8460, "title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", "created_at": "2021-10-29T22:54:27.637766Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-01T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T21:34:24.299367Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\n\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649496.406263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649496.406263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015227146881793795 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.496950593932997, 1.7025843652098471, 0.9544026523866925, 0.12588186555186362, 0.12257141642320935, 0.2880540367803039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32919929430005174, 0.08668497741104134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.4518482873948, "peer_score": 9.773581644814662, "coverage": 0.9998501275017002, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998501275017002, "spot_peer_score": 2.3906181019756074, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 95.4518482873948, "peer_archived_score": 9.773581644814662, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3906181019756074, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288989.150171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288989.150171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\n\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s." }, { "id": 8456, "title": "Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?", "short_title": "Household mixing ban in England on X-mas", "url_title": "Household mixing ban in England on X-mas", "slug": "household-mixing-ban-in-england-on-x-mas", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-29T21:44:10.623586Z", "published_at": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.369515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In England there is [growing concern](https://unherd.com/2021/10/how-we-can-escape-a-lockdown-christmas/), given [waning vaccine-induced 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"binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\n\nAccording to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:\n>\n- Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport)\n - Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.\n- Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.\n\nPlan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so.\n\n[Media](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/covid-measures-plan-c-discussed-government-official-mps) [reports](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-coronavirus-plan-c-proposed-department-of-health-science-chief-reveals-12445084) indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df) might include a ban on inter-household mixing.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if the UK Government [announces](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street), before 1 February 2022, that COVID measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK. For the purposes of this question, this should include at least two additional measures — for instance, a ban on inter-household mixing *and* closing of pubs.\n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8454/uks-covid-plan-b-announced-before-feb/) question on whether \"Plan B\" measures will be announced.", "fine_print": "Asking people to work from home would not count as one of the two additional measures, since this might fall under Plan B.\n\n> **Clarification added 12 December**: Note that many of the components more severe than those of \"Plan B\" may already be in effect in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland before the UK announces measures for England, or vice versa. For positive resolution, measures more stringent than those in \"Plan B\" would have to have been announced in all of the UK — for instance, through multiple announcements. 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(i.e., vaccine passport)\n - Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.\n- Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.\n\nPlan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so.\n\n[Media](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/covid-measures-plan-c-discussed-government-official-mps) [reports](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-coronavirus-plan-c-proposed-department-of-health-science-chief-reveals-12445084) indicate there might also be a “Plan C” in the works in the event that the UK NHS comes under extreme pressure and the measures of Plan B are insufficient to relieve this pressure. Such a plan [reportedly](https://www.ft.com/content/36b198e9-ce6a-4912-b34d-9507f8a275df) might include a ban on inter-household mixing." }, { "id": 8454, "title": "Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "short_title": "UK \"Plan B\" measures announced before Feb", "url_title": "UK \"Plan B\" measures announced before Feb", "slug": "uk-plan-b-measures-announced-before-feb", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-29T20:53:04.355157Z", "published_at": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.188774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2021-12-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8454, "title": "Will implementation of “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "created_at": "2021-10-29T20:53:04.355157Z", "open_time": "2021-11-01T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-03T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2021-12-08T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2021-12-08T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2021-12-08T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\n\nAccording to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:\n>\n- Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport)\n - Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.\n- Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.\n\nPlan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if the UK Government [announces](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/prime-ministers-office-10-downing-street), before 1 February 2022, that \"Plan B\" will be implemented in all of the UK.\n\nFor positive resolution, plan B would have to include *at least* the three measures mentioned in Johnson's 14 September plan: use of vaccine passports for high-risk settings, legally mandated use of face coverings in certain settings, and clear/urgent communication to the public. \n\nAlso see [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8455/uk-planC-covid-measures-announced-before-feb/) question on whether \"Plan C\" measures will be announced.", "fine_print": "Asking people to work from home, or other more severe measures, are not needed for positive resolution. Just the three outlined above are needed for positive resolution.\n\nThis resolves as the date implementation of \"Plan B\" is announced, not the date it goes into effect. \n\nNote that many of the components of Plan B are [already in effect](https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52530518) in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. For positive resolution, the three components of Plan B would have to be implemented in all of the UK, including England.", "post_id": 8454, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1639133608.763896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1639133608.763896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8446239559328254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1115958956512488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.5595744013023127, 0.20559680035186842, 0.1148171974242466, 0.16438976427023788, 1.5259205001506468, 1.3597380923520404, 0.0, 0.6087506392183328, 0.0, 0.7574556874169998, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9985557302402781 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.361409829012694, "coverage": 0.6037136948608182, "baseline_score": 8.872116172029617, "spot_peer_score": -2.0454462497660986, "peer_archived_score": 4.361409829012694, "baseline_archived_score": 8.872116172029617, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.0454462497660986 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1638982340.436773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1638982340.436773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3925237947783097, 0.6074762052216903 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 14 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Johnson outlined a \"Plan B\" to manage COVID if [\"a range of metrics and indicators mean the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-autumn-and-winter-covid-plan)\n\nAccording to Prime Minister Johnson, Plan B would include at least the following:\n>\n- Introducing mandatory vaccine only Covid status certification in certain, riskier settings. (i.e., vaccine passport)\n - Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops.\n- Communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.\n\nPlan B might also include the UK Government asking people to work from home if they can do so." }, { "id": 8444, "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", "short_title": "Tesla most valuable traded co. before '23?", "url_title": "Tesla most valuable traded co. before '23?", "slug": "tesla-most-valuable-traded-co-before-23", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2021-10-28T02:46:36.691625Z", "published_at": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.119094Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32597, "name": "2021 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8444, "title": "Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?", "created_at": "2021-10-28T02:46:36.691625Z", "open_time": "2021-10-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2021-11-01T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2021-11-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\n\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Google parent Alphabet.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2023, Tesla is credibly reported by reputable financial media sources (e.g. The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, The Nikkei) to be the world's most-valuable publicly-traded corporation by market capitalization. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 8444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640994048.580395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640994048.580395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.1897260790811893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.36064805133134326, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 1.3938652653171204, 0.10647907411723471, 0.02385565427197364, 0.20794218954840368, 0.6949662297554562, 0.0, 1.0466432104617587, 0.0, 0.7191028680530427, 0.6133032053396327, 0.35091791346244466, 0.8533057488240291, 0.19885725078528457, 0.4410733460278575, 0.6688748292223129, 0.8353215637810844, 0.305873080687478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026507746979498387, 1.586433366157203, 0.05239604340077941, 0.5757153645648194, 1.8715104482455018, 0.0, 0.8352714018545839, 0.3895219738895052, 0.0, 1.1511843193437317, 0.035895969514433246, 0.003287856123065263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025372866159333904, 0.0, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003706294648677218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.975582963389095, "coverage": 0.9995955884308967, "baseline_score": 69.18824569692845, "spot_peer_score": 5.354241294735004, "peer_archived_score": 6.975582963389095, "baseline_archived_score": 69.18824569692845, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.354241294735004 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1640994048.603096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1640994048.603096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8954892869743749, 0.10451071302562509 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined, [climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU)\n\nIn October 2021, [Tesla became a trillion-dollar company](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59045100), after its stock soared by more than 1,000% since January 2020. This makes the company [one of the most valuable in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization#2021). Other companies with a market capitalisation above $1 trillion include Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Google parent Alphabet." }, { "id": 8409, "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", "short_title": "Drones deliver 100 million parcels by 2050", "url_title": "Drones deliver 100 million parcels by 2050", "slug": "drones-deliver-100-million-parcels-by-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 120927, "username": "erikhoel" }, { "id": 104297, "username": "A_R" }, { "id": 113344, "username": "Matej" } ], "created_at": "2021-10-27T12:56:05.974699Z", "published_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T00:40:06.838530Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 8409, "title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", "created_at": "2021-10-27T12:56:05.974699Z", "open_time": "2022-01-19T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-01-21T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-08-01T12:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-31T13:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Buzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\n\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \n\n>If your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. 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