Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=460
{ "count": 6276, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=440", "results": [ { "id": 39355, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "url_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "slug": "trump-to-violate-impoundment-control-act-by-fy-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.304882Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.271707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.716902Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38732, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:21.305346Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:01:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:31:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-31 20:48:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34505). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nImpoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34505,\"question_id\":34021}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a federal judge issues a decision finding the Trump administration in violation of the Impoundment Control Act (2 U.S.C. §§ 681–688) for attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds before September 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- The violation must be formally determined in a judicial decision by a federal court before the end of the 2025 fiscal year (September 27, 2025). Preliminary injunctions and temporary restraining orders do not qualify. The resolution of this question will not be affected by subsequent appeals.\n\n\\- The ruling must be publicly available and reported by credible legal or governmental sources.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on court rulings issued on or before September 27, 2025, Eastern Time, based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 39355, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756754778.480992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756754778.480992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2913478103232619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-31 20:48:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34505). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nImpoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34505,\"question_id\":34021}}`" }, { "id": 39354, "title": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?", "short_title": "Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?", "url_title": "Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?", "slug": "democrats-favored-to-win-2028-us-election-on-kalshi", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:20.541544Z", "published_at": "2025-09-28T02:03:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T03:34:00.238023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:20.946363Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-28T02:03:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38731, "title": "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:20.542010Z", "open_time": "2025-09-28T02:03:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:33:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31336). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31336,\"question_id\":30966}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the median price for \"Democratic\" is higher than the median price for \"Republican\" on the Kalshi market [*Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?*](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresparty/party-winning-presidency), for the dates December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, inclusive.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve based on the CSV downloaded from the market page. The median price will be calculated over all timestamps that belong to the week in question.\n* If the medians are equal, this question will resolve as **No**.\n* If, for more than 3 days of the relevant week, the market is unavailable or has been halted, this question will be **annulled.**", "post_id": 39354, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759029976.905857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.5513654614152739 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.615 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759029976.905857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.5513654614152739 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.615 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4486345385847262, 0.5513654614152739 ], "means": [ 0.5381361126771063 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:01:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31336). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31336,\"question_id\":30966}}`" }, { "id": 39353, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-be-worlds-richest-person-on-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:19.868585Z", "published_at": "2025-10-11T11:29:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T13:00:00.274485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:20.262689Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-11T11:29:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38730, "title": "Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:19.869015Z", "open_time": "2025-10-11T11:29:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T12:59:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:05:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n\nElon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n\nSecondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n* If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n* Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n* In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.", "post_id": 39353, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760187520.90559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760187520.90559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7223059530733996 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 12.0, 3.0, 3.0, 6.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:05:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n\nElon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n\nSecondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605}}`" }, { "id": 39352, "title": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)", "short_title": "Non-Apple App Stores on iPhones", "url_title": "Non-Apple App Stores on iPhones", "slug": "non-apple-app-stores-on-iphones", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:19.291866Z", "published_at": "2025-10-22T11:39:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T13:10:00.217778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:19.524904Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T11:39:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:53:37.032769Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38729, "title": "Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (United States)", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:07:19.292279Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T11:39:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:09:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-02-19 15:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14135). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn 14 September 2022 the [Regulation 2022/1925 on contestable and fair markets in the digital sector (better known as the Digital Markets Act or DMA) was adopted](https://www.simmons-simmons.com/en/publications/cl5qyuy0o1h0y0a59y4osbiqx/digital-markets-act-is-adopted). Its primary aim are issues regarding [contestability and fairness in the digital economy](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/digital-markets-act-dma-goes-live), with a focus on prohibitions and obligations imposed upon Big Tech. The DMA impacts a wide variety of companies such as Amazon, Google, or Apple, with an anticipated enforcement date of March 2024.\n\nThe [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reported that the DMA represents the “biggest threat to [Apple’s] control over its operating system in 15 years”. \n\n> Apple is laying the groundwork to comply with tough new EU rules that will allow iPhone users to pick apps from beyond its own App Store, as developers seek to skirt the up to 30 per cent fee imposed by the US tech giant.\n\nThis comes against the backdrop of Apple’s legal fight with Fortnite maker Epic Games about Epic’s own app store that resulted in Apple pulling Fortnite from their App Store. The DMA may make it illegal for Apple to prohibit other app stores on their phones.\n\nHowever, as the [Financial Times]( https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reports, a potential workaround for Apple could be “sideloading”, where users are able to install software directly via a browser (without using rival app stores). \n\nWhile the DMA only applies to the EU, there is also the possibility of a regulatory spill-over to other jurisdictions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":14135,\"question_id\":14137}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'United States'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if there are credible media reports that either (i) sideloading is straightforwardly possible on iPhones without the need to circumvent Apple's rules or (ii) non-Apple app stores are available on the iPhone before January 1, 2026. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no such credible media reports exist before January 1, 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39352, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761138151.261651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761138151.261651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13009765324351583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 9.0, 6.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 24.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-02-19 15:55:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14135). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn 14 September 2022 the [Regulation 2022/1925 on contestable and fair markets in the digital sector (better known as the Digital Markets Act or DMA) was adopted](https://www.simmons-simmons.com/en/publications/cl5qyuy0o1h0y0a59y4osbiqx/digital-markets-act-is-adopted). Its primary aim are issues regarding [contestability and fairness in the digital economy](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/digital-markets-act-dma-goes-live), with a focus on prohibitions and obligations imposed upon Big Tech. The DMA impacts a wide variety of companies such as Amazon, Google, or Apple, with an anticipated enforcement date of March 2024.\n\nThe [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reported that the DMA represents the “biggest threat to [Apple’s] control over its operating system in 15 years”. \n\n> Apple is laying the groundwork to comply with tough new EU rules that will allow iPhone users to pick apps from beyond its own App Store, as developers seek to skirt the up to 30 per cent fee imposed by the US tech giant.\n\nThis comes against the backdrop of Apple’s legal fight with Fortnite maker Epic Games about Epic’s own app store that resulted in Apple pulling Fortnite from their App Store. The DMA may make it illegal for Apple to prohibit other app stores on their phones.\n\nHowever, as the [Financial Times]( https://www.ft.com/content/0c2d56f7-a402-45ea-8aa6-0e05e6260b68) reports, a potential workaround for Apple could be “sideloading”, where users are able to install software directly via a browser (without using rival app stores). \n\nWhile the DMA only applies to the EU, there is also the possibility of a regulatory spill-over to other jurisdictions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":14135,\"question_id\":14137}}`" }, { "id": 39343, "title": "Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?", "short_title": "Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?", "url_title": "Spirit Airlines emerge from bankruptcy before 2026?", "slug": "spirit-airlines-emerge-from-bankruptcy-before-2026", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-30T19:11:03.425026Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T20:44:11.311617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-05T21:53:14.610085Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:30:16.245302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:30:16.245302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38720, "title": "Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-30T19:11:03.425476Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n\n> Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n\nThis marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n\nWhilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, Spirit Airlines, Inc. emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n\nIf Spirit Airlines, Inc is liquidated, dissolved, its Chapter 11 case is converted to Chapter 7, or the Chapter 11 bankruptcy case is dismissed without confirmation of a reorganisation plan this question will immediately resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39343, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762226456.517, "end_time": 1762295873.139, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.029 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762226456.517, "end_time": 1762295873.139, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.029 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.971, 0.029 ], "means": [ 0.11567480973509014 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3037943838629347, 1.8932658879719844, 3.2839049360626293, 1.80745134368182, 0.7779998520330786, 0.4658808703163261, 0.0, 0.17262475494939217, 0.24089099344350257, 0.0, 0.3926719769922731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 29, 2025, Spirit Airlines, Inc. [announced](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Issues-Open-Letter-to-All-Guests/default.aspx) that the company has entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.\n\n> Today, Spirit took a proactive step to build a stronger foundation and future for our company. We have voluntarily entered the Chapter 11 restructuring process to ensure the long-term success of our airline.\n\nThis marks the [second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines#Attempted_mergers_and_bankruptcy) time the troubled airline has done so since November 2024, where the low-cost airline filed for bankruptcy on the back of several failed merger attempts between fellow low-cost airlines JetBlue Airways Corporation and Frontier Airlines, Inc.\n\nWhilst Spirit managed to [emerge](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Emerges-from-Financial-Restructuring-Better-Positioned-to-Advance-its-Transformation-and-Enhanced-Guest-Experience/default.aspx) from their initial bankruptcy in March 2025 (a reorganization [approved](https://ir.spirit.com/news/news-details/2025/Spirit-Airlines-Receives-Court-Confirmation-of-Reorganization-Plan/default.aspx) by the court February 2025), it ultimately failed to stabilise its finances amidst challenging market conditions, slow growth and failed restructuring." }, { "id": 39336, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-29T17:45:24.294796Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:17:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T01:37:37.624502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T15:18:50Z", "comment_count": 117, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 257, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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"open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762134348.601337, "end_time": 1762442775.678, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762134348.601337, "end_time": 1762442775.678, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5903713768235898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10289943000066734, 0.0, 5.2999261489737515e-05, 0.5444463450285538, 0.1509538031225847, 0.00018851874894448823, 0.031291741721311106, 0.013551895754687966, 0.0, 0.0008989522101361435, 3.752355145192374e-05, 0.016124189331432344, 0.00016984935762691768, 0.00018362922928581973, 0.023962269878446848, 0.018944394979813137, 0.13773109421244942, 0.0, 0.0008245523440855192, 0.0006909326434708598, 0.05240455383053952, 0.00012688248276391934, 0.0, 0.02855418817903263, 0.004691899325181709, 0.02804806651451818, 0.009467600274569294, 0.0, 0.42966373208053904, 0.0, 1.004676464071863, 0.003573784974999305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3062575730891648, 0.08810608159805028, 0.0, 0.022830048414873245, 0.0, 0.9965573732483979, 0.0, 1.064109025987015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7932671156107775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.621315855840662, 0.29338118580904554, 1.1735701786561135, 0.02924721594660626, 0.11438854609068995, 0.0, 0.0, 1.756402152192577, 0.07811271450103206, 0.018070550457459766, 0.0, 0.5067651903535112, 1.2184694222205965, 0.3787456180890954, 0.9984530483006416, 1.1889127869966671, 0.07440130382957882, 1.0819900639034679, 0.0009788297861498495, 0.9248837325953636, 0.2259557970611817, 0.34805093112337493, 0.6587742095296134, 0.7646039039397381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8638162670354687, 0.0, 0.032999876940164756, 0.4476972752444808, 0.19068363228575672, 2.2482760667995754, 0.02811044444775151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06745186722770079, 0.567259598468826, 0.012045275079943626, 0.0, 0.1198604315028388, 0.0, 0.2244779351729944, 0.07084977054314467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9894239381696612 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2941, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela." }, { "id": 39331, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "short_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "url_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "slug": "paul-biya-reelected-in-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-29T00:55:22.542866Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T21:58:09.755301Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T15:11:45.201993Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T21:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 176, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:30:16.245302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:30:16.245302Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38708, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-29T00:55:22.543304Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T21:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-27T21:57:46.627978Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Paul Biya is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if someone else is declared the winner of the election. If no winner is declared before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "In the event that the fairness or results of the election are disputed, this question will resolve according to the official pronouncements of the Cameroonian government.", "post_id": 39331, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760227850.964143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.989 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760227850.964143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.989 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9524883551699002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0738760997845549, 0.0, 0.005119705353099774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11571210710555879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008242447596561078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006368581077564335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005717528485880734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5445282153089651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3183929148018232, 0.0, 0.004228801706912682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01674023634710317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003305530037031849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03263927293297178, 0.0, 0.012998132176817398, 0.021694108310922836, 0.1413629368751518, 0.03815671021561097, 0.0018683628185842587, 3.7584420943306043, 1.8672903826730167, 4.386434255877774, 2.1828327738791238, 4.462378330807965 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.39379753936002, "peer_score": 9.954917787993232, "coverage": 0.9999837572652389, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999837572652389, "spot_peer_score": 7.7488115069188055, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 91.39379753936002, "peer_archived_score": 9.954917787993232, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.7488115069188055, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1612, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\n\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win." }, { "id": 39326, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "short_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "url_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "slug": "fide-grand-swiss-2025", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739008Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:37:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T09:26:07.844422Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:41:45.181121Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-17T09:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38677, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739502Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-17T09:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-17T09:25:58.889667Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a player other than one of the top 10 seeds wins the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757944021.694566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757944021.694566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4146246369577098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3460657558425577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.955703889736218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.7067743870363, "peer_score": 2.227550806970714, "coverage": 0.9998417320555196, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998417320555196, "spot_peer_score": 2.5823115077762893, "spot_baseline_score": 25.09615735332188, "baseline_archived_score": 37.7067743870363, "peer_archived_score": 2.227550806970714, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5823115077762893, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 25.09615735332188 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke" }, { "id": 39324, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "short_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "url_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-guard-shoot-a-civilian", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605211Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:42:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T17:58:13.816864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:43:34.230826Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38675, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605645Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, during Donald Trump’s 2025–2029 presidential term, a civilian located on U.S. soil is shot by a National Guard member while deployed for domestic operations.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"shot\" means being struck by a live round that was discharged from a firearm.\n\nIf Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, and no qualifying incident has occurred, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "post_id": 39324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762192683.538459, "end_time": 1764729289.123, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762192683.538459, "end_time": 1764729289.123, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6707744374276966 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7821211939703921, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0108210528832982, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0459286218559325, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4852248925609657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9303732963874364 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force." }, { "id": 39322, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T18:00:21.308768Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-27T16:47:11.150962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, 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"exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38673, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561729Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762192810.868638, "end_time": 1762293932.815, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.078 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762192810.868638, "end_time": 1762293932.815, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.17174109992109673 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5959763164813907, 0.77870555759313, 0.18756761545189093, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 1.4534511716215128, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 192, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)" }, { "id": 39314, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "short_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "url_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "slug": "us-undergraduate-enrollment-decline-by-10-from-2024-to-2030", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.831789Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T02:06:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T09:49:25.688486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T02:13:28.335952Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ] }, "question": { "id": 38667, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.832255Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for Fall 2030, the total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting post-secondary institutions in the United States falls by 10% or more from the Fall 2024 levels, according to the [National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/).\n\nThe baseline undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2024 is 15,955,978 students, according to [<u>NSC Research Center data</u>](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/researchcenter/viz/CTEEFall2024dashboard/CTEEFall2024) (which reflects a 4.7% increase of \\~716,000 students from Fall 2023). Accordingly, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the total undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2030 is less than 14,360,381.", "fine_print": "This question refers to total undergraduate enrollment across all institution types (public, private nonprofit, and private for-profit, and two-year and four-year programs) and attendance statuses (full-time and part-time) across the United States.\n\nIf NSC data is unavailable, this question may resolve using data from the [National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha). In this case, resolution will be determined only when official enrollment data for Fall 2030 is published and verified by NCES. Provisional or estimated data will not be used unless it is the final available data by December 31, 2031.", "post_id": 39314, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759599695.33513, "end_time": 1765072204.8, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759599695.33513, "end_time": 1765072204.8, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5181062718330881 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability." }, { "id": 39312, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "short_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "url_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-exceed-350-for-september-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-23T21:47:26.689129Z", "published_at": "2025-08-24T15:09:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T14:12:07.914190Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-27T16:55:00.651995Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T14:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38665, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-23T21:47:26.689524Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-29T15:09:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T15:09:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T14:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T14:12:07.870736Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the group’s chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 350 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of September 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759253621.307, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759253621.307, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5480538305739822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9215675620793167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0995032307760462, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44762836287875585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.47671898099645, "peer_score": 52.40182921291465, "coverage": 0.9881934822803186, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9881934822803186, "spot_peer_score": 5.88915178281917, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -37.47671898099645, "peer_archived_score": 52.40182921291465, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.88915178281917, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the group’s chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals." }, { "id": 39303, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "short_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "url_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "slug": "will-cracker-barrel-have-falling-sales-for-its-q1-fy2026-august-october-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015267Z", "published_at": "2025-08-22T00:03:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T03:00:00.881468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-22T00:04:19Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38647, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015814Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cracker Barrel, Inc.'s first quarter total revenue in its fiscal year 2026 is less than its first quarter total revenue in FY 2025.  \r\n\r\nThe Q1 2026 total revenue figure is expected to encompass the 13-week period through October 31, 2025, and Q1 2025 encompassed the 13-week period through November 1, 2025. Question resolves according to results posted at [SEC Edgar](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1067294\\&owner=exclude) or Cracker Barrel's [Investor Relations](https://investor.cbrlgroup.com/) page.\r\n\r\nQ1 2025 [had](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067294/000155837024016001/cbrl-20241101x10q.htm#CONDENSEDCONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFINCOMEL) total revenue of \\$845.089 million. Thus, the question resolves as **Yes** if Q1 2026 total revenue is less than that amount.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761934152.648124, "end_time": 1762312868.657, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761934152.648124, "end_time": 1762312868.657, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8786830682868395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727893774349618, 0.0, 1.790168880040201, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.325933444896826 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 283, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> “This risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,” she told CNN. “In Cracker Barrel’s case, they’ve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.”\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel “stand out less and risks diluting the brand’s uniqueness,” but the “challenge is ensuring that modernization doesn’t come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.”\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities." }, { "id": 39300, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "short_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "url_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "slug": "by-dec-1-2025-will-erdogan-be-legally-permitted-to-run-for-another-term", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.649709Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:01:53.360382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:42:07.675203Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38644, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.650214Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:41:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leader’s “legal” term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. Erdoğan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2025, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), legally able run for another consecutive term as president of Turkey (officially the President of the Republic of Türkiye).", "fine_print": "This may come about through amending or changing the Turkish constitution, a ruling by the Constitutional Court of Turkey, the government enacting a new law, or any other mechanism that legally permits Erdoğan to run for another consecutive presidential term in the [next Turkish presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Turkish_presidential_election). ", "post_id": 39300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128102.365325, "end_time": 1762400588.691, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128102.365325, "end_time": 1762400588.691, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.3318782767945183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leader’s “legal” term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. Erdoğan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"" }, { "id": 39295, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "url_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "slug": "will-samia-suluhu-hassan-win-the-next-tanzanian-election-with-80", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631322Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:18:52.746565Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:29.857076Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T22:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38641, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631680Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-02T22:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-03T00:18:52.711020Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. There’s no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the government’s party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Samia Suluhu Hassan wins the next presidential election in Tanzania, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tanzanian_general_election) for October 29, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Suluhu receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 29, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Tanzania before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761665928.286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.713 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761665928.286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.713 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28700000000000003, 0.713 ], "means": [ 0.7360064104005761 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.34257959701067, "peer_score": 0.865790413791885, "coverage": 0.9611079829671714, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9611079829671714, "spot_peer_score": 0.40512884434207663, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 81.34257959701067, "peer_archived_score": 0.865790413791885, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.40512884434207663, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. There’s no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the government’s party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same." }, { "id": 39294, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with ≥80% of the vote?", "url_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with ≥80% of the vote?", "slug": "will-paul-biya-win-the-next-cameroon-election-with-80-of-the-vote", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266173Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T21:38:20.797244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:31.650037Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38640, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266641Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-27T21:38:20.747683Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup d’etat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been “re-elected” several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Paul Biya wins the next presidential election in Cameroon, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election) for October 12, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Biya receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 12, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Cameroon before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761517642.8, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.615 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761517642.8, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.615 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.385, 0.615 ], "means": [ 0.5951285209617879 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2697738486604029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.105292596978209, "peer_score": 3.8766609172285236, "coverage": 0.5920127695452826, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9599253252835577, "spot_peer_score": 8.200087364193417, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -5.105292596978209, "peer_archived_score": 3.8766609172285236, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.200087364193417, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup d’etat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been “re-elected” several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition." }, { "id": 39293, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "slug": "will-guinea-bissau-hold-elections-before-november-24-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676072Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:01:51.409861Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:27:17.540355Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38639, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676514Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President Embaló [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) Embaló of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Y**es** if, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reports, the [general elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election) for both president and National People's Assembly are held in Guinea-Bissau before November 24, 2025.", "fine_print": "If there are multiple days of voting, it counts as long as the date of the first day of in-person voting takes before November 24, 2025.", "post_id": 39293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128101.266694, "end_time": 1762400590.379, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.741 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128101.266694, "end_time": 1762400590.379, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.741 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.259, 0.741 ], "means": [ 0.7487400106973328 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0186679699572716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2697738486604029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 1.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President Embaló [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) Embaló of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome." }, { "id": 39292, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T14:04:58.834813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-20T17:45:10.596859Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T04:29:34.083303Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38638, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816681Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-14T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-15T13:32:07.714759Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America after August 21, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 39292, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760415371.056384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760415371.056384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.28222496729661606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 1.3043352006899074, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6041184346754821, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7364223734727452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994205222620702, "peer_score": -2.834328305475653, "coverage": 0.4067993080564205, "baseline_score": -53.859609036567036, "spot_peer_score": -78.58805736105334, "spot_baseline_score": -194.34164716336326, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": -2.834328305475653, "baseline_archived_score": -53.859609036567036, "spot_peer_archived_score": -78.58805736105334, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -194.34164716336326 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 39291, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-kim-ju-ae-appear-alongside-her-dad-kim-jong-un-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130033Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T13:52:44.497976Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:33.988591Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38637, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130439Z", "open_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Cuba’s Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidel’s survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nation’s ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 10, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un make a public appearance together. ", "fine_print": "\"Public appearance\" is defined as Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un presenting themselves in front of an in-person audience at an official ceremony. Virtual appearances, such as a joint televised address, do not count unless made in front of an in-person audience.\n\n\"Together\" is defined as occupying the same physical space closely enough at a public venue that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves.", "post_id": 39291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128103.64961, "end_time": 1762400591.662, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.774 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128103.64961, "end_time": 1762400591.662, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.774 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.72753022125919 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Korea’s Kim Jong Il and Cuba’s Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidel’s survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nation’s ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). " }, { "id": 39289, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ahmed-al-sharaa-lose-power-as-president-of-syria-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.048800Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:01:49.253407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:19.236160Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 38636, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.049262Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be the [President of Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria) before December 1, 2025, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128098.969082, "end_time": 1762400587.041, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128098.969082, "end_time": 1762400587.041, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.20516466750674892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.7161608149020564, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply." } ] }
