Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=460
{ "count": 5527, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=440", "results": [ { "id": 36176, "title": "Will Fivethirtyeight update its polling tracker again before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-fivethirtyeight-update-its-polling-tracker-again-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.337394Z", "published_at": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:16.066843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35613, "title": "Will Fivethirtyeight update its polling tracker again before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.337394Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T00:00:08.798483Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Twitter/X Nathaniel Rakich: [Incredibly sad to report that ABC News is indeed eliminating 538.](https://x.com/baseballot/status/1897326289658491357)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Fivethirtyeight's [Latest Polls page](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/) has been updated with a timestamp after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. If this is not the case for any reason, including the resolution page being pulled from the internet, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742435726.632659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742435726.632659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11037325259350513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3638987746850042, 3.202421861696036, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 3.335862519945287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18946025635911917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8676606470725293, 0.0, 0.9489977208814941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.82216387461199, "peer_score": 8.932682986118957, "coverage": 0.997558130125205, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997558130125205, "spot_peer_score": 12.961969143461062, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.82216387461199, "peer_archived_score": 8.932682986118957, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.961969143461062, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Twitter/X Nathaniel Rakich: [Incredibly sad to report that ABC News is indeed eliminating 538.](https://x.com/baseballot/status/1897326289658491357)" }, { "id": 36175, "title": "Will the highest high in Denver Colorado exceed the lowest low in Honolulu Hawaii before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-highest-high-in-denver-colorado-exceed-the-lowest-low-in-honolulu-hawaii-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.149214Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:31.260543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35612, "title": "Will the highest high in Denver Colorado exceed the lowest low in Honolulu Hawaii before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.149214Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:59:24.814083Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, for the time period after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025, the highest high temperature recorded at Denver International Airport [presented here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=DEN&network=CO_ASOS) exceeds the lowest low temperature recorded at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport [presented here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=PHNL&network=HI_ASOS).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36175, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742423396.578971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742423396.578971, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6617254366336807 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38449114536732615, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0326322944669163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1985367501139708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28901451465308314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6607951112254358, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0662508937407686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6120714290412508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4749546834068561, 0.7130527459887679 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.152534685562316, "peer_score": 64.86846482100175, "coverage": 0.9975433806909455, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9975433806909455, "spot_peer_score": 71.0037139985884, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 59.152534685562316, "peer_archived_score": 64.86846482100175, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 71.0037139985884, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/)." }, { "id": 36174, "title": "Will the temperature reach 70 degrees F in Warsaw, Poland after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-reach-70-degrees-f-in-warsaw-poland-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.117447Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:29.309154Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35611, "title": "Will the temperature reach 70 degrees F in Warsaw, Poland after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.117447Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:56:25.349069Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Warsaw, Poland weather in March](https://wanderlog.com/weather/9642/3/warsaw-weather-in-march)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in Warsaw, Poland (specifically the airport), as presented by [Iowa Environmental Mesonet](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=EPWA&network=PL__ASOS), has a high of greater than or equal to 70 degrees Fahrenheit for any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742419110.294615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06633333333333331 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742419110.294615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06633333333333331 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9336666666666666, 0.06633333333333331 ], "means": [ 0.08847422481585936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.3333607309447362, 1.132906249748197, 0.019676189570906492, 2.4889385686920815, 1.8192971749899, 0.22900802253318142, 0.5506534361945985, 0.6571444928584438, 1.0323975410255877, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6791356312584358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.7881491904026, "peer_score": 1.7799847778466702, "coverage": 0.9968740479151407, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968740479151407, "spot_peer_score": 2.2016196070772804, "spot_baseline_score": 90.0979482691263, "baseline_archived_score": 89.7881491904026, "peer_archived_score": 1.7799847778466702, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.2016196070772804, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 90.0979482691263 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Warsaw, Poland weather in March](https://wanderlog.com/weather/9642/3/warsaw-weather-in-march)" }, { "id": 36173, "title": "Will the Guatemala City, Guatemala fail to reach reach 80 degrees F on any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-guatemala-city-guatemala-fail-to-reach-reach-80-degrees-f-on-any-day-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.086688Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:23.875697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35610, "title": "Will the Guatemala City, Guatemala fail to reach reach 80 degrees F on any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.086688Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:55:25.566007Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Base rate information can be found at the resolution source.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in Guatemala City, Guatemala, as presented by [Iowa Environmental Mesonet](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MGGT&network=GT__ASOS), fails to reach a high temperature of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit for any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742409918.690443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742409918.690443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.37544212282800343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.016860822722490777, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.3309687191474027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.806975111402067, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7531844227648374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7224386248508751, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 1.1160506119511147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 1.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -158.1784478679735, "peer_score": -1.4466066976601457, "coverage": 0.9969028243091371, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9969028243091371, "spot_peer_score": -20.49086002525671, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -158.1784478679735, "peer_archived_score": -1.4466066976601457, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -20.49086002525671, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Base rate information can be found at the resolution source." }, { "id": 36172, "title": "Will the temperature reach 90 degrees F in Jacksonville FL after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-reach-90-degrees-f-in-jacksonville-fl-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.055486Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:55.465794Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35609, "title": "Will the temperature reach 90 degrees F in Jacksonville FL after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.055486Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:53:25.785625Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in Jacksonville FL (specifically Jacksonville International Airport), as presented by [Iowa Environmental Mesonet](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=JAX&network=FL_ASOS), has a high of greater than or equal to 90 degrees Fahrenheit for any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742402121.463686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.163 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742402121.463686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.163 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14769217058851855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9969850335115946, 0.0, 0.992545643471842, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.7130527459887679, 0.24849146739470301, 1.9170934463864149, 0.37390892894840233, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9903499697196204, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6125864604016131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14833134462340614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7972640982211486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.39391144996404, "peer_score": 4.229345469157796, "coverage": 0.9962659074862799, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9962659074862799, "spot_peer_score": 4.751818404052149, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 84.39391144996404, "peer_archived_score": 4.229345469157796, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.751818404052149, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/)." }, { "id": 36171, "title": "Will the temperature reach 90 degrees F in Miami FL after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-reach-90-degrees-f-in-miami-fl-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.020496Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:55.454460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35608, "title": "Will the temperature reach 90 degrees F in Miami FL after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:28.020496Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:52:21.557235Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the high temperature in Miami FL (specifically Miami International Airport), as presented by [Iowa Environmental Mesonet](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=MIA&network=FL_ASOS), has a high of greater than or equal to 90 degrees Fahrenheit for any day after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742396852.44782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3233333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742396852.44782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3233333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.24389318816170688 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8718508224544563, 0.0, 0.0, 1.609405277809123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1411973361960346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9552070979515657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31193230816447026, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7777618131431029, 0.0, 0.424947823514987, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1997624086630665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.89161289913392, "peer_score": 9.52098211253884, "coverage": 0.9700790929132037, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9700790929132037, "spot_peer_score": 11.477679255856827, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.89161289913392, "peer_archived_score": 9.52098211253884, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.477679255856827, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An introduction to the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observing System can be found [here](https://www.weather.gov/asos/)." }, { "id": 36170, "title": "Will Ukraine's parliament initiate impeachment proceedings against Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraines-parliament-initiate-impeachment-proceedings-against-volodymyr-zelensky-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.691871Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:54.725806Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35607, "title": "Will Ukraine's parliament initiate impeachment proceedings against Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.691871Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T01:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-03T01:23:59.892296Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Who is Oleksandr Dubinsky? Ukraine MP demands President Zelensky’s impeachment after ‘shouting match’ with Trump](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/who-is-oleksandr-dubinsky-ukraine-mp-demands-president-zelenskys-impeachment-after-shouting-match-with-trump-11740843598607.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Ukraine's parliament [initiates](https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2019-11-07/ukraine-law-on-impeachment-of-president-adopted/) impeachment proceedings against President Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742389273.047229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742389273.047229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07384566669765211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.00938587886210713, 0.33902137454495224, 0.9826225323883547, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 3.464377978789032, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 3.5412556238981283, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8083349840840273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0668051725820422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.56435456050828, "peer_score": 3.2586356175694062, "coverage": 0.9966217186053595, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966217186053595, "spot_peer_score": 3.780553477803865, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 90.56435456050828, "peer_archived_score": 3.2586356175694062, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.780553477803865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Who is Oleksandr Dubinsky? Ukraine MP demands President Zelensky’s impeachment after ‘shouting match’ with Trump](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/who-is-oleksandr-dubinsky-ukraine-mp-demands-president-zelenskys-impeachment-after-shouting-match-with-trump-11740843598607.html)" }, { "id": 36169, "title": "Will Elon Musk be interviewed by Jon Stewart on the Daily Show?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-be-interviewed-by-jon-stewart-on-the-daily-show", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.661532Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:36.987627Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35606, "title": "Will Elon Musk be interviewed by Jon Stewart on the Daily Show?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.661532Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T23:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T23:47:32.412612Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "['The Daily Show' accepts Musk's terms for interview with Stewart: 'We'd be delighted'](https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2025/02/27/elon-musk-daily-show-jon-stewart-doge/80669525007/) | [Wikipedia: [List of The Daily Show episodes (2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Daily_Show_episodes_(2025))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Elon Musk is interviewed by Jon Stewart on an episode of The Daily Show that airs after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. If there are no reports that this has occurred, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Interview\" [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interview) \"a structured conversation where one participant asks questions, and the other provides answers.\"", "post_id": 36169, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742380453.606901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17166666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742380453.606901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17166666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.31478557817991726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9098298669307259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.2500256280219779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.25890389873095543, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 1.2819131416202985, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 1.3907039039828522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05203521806025672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07076713278408464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1989575359920648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.597501689558082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.747807103472155, "peer_score": 13.332302925325036, "coverage": 0.9967798299921882, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967798299921882, "spot_peer_score": 14.010867265434287, "spot_baseline_score": 64.15460290875237, "baseline_archived_score": 63.747807103472155, "peer_archived_score": 13.332302925325036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.010867265434287, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 64.15460290875237 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "['The Daily Show' accepts Musk's terms for interview with Stewart: 'We'd be delighted'](https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2025/02/27/elon-musk-daily-show-jon-stewart-doge/80669525007/) | [Wikipedia: [List of The Daily Show episodes (2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_Daily_Show_episodes_(2025))" }, { "id": 36167, "title": "Will the ISW warmap show Kursk as having been completely retaken by Russia on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-isw-warmap-show-kursk-as-having-been-completely-retaken-by-russia-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.599959Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:14.953354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35604, "title": "Will the ISW warmap show Kursk as having been completely retaken by Russia on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.599959Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:58:47.882871Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [Russia says it is poised to drive Ukraine out of Kursk as Putin spurs on his generals](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-forces-will-soon-retake-all-kursk-ukrainian-troops-2025-03-13/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at the [ISW Interactive Map: Ukraine's Incursion into Kursk Oblast](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/83a2f24901c941d581c0c523ecd2619b) Ukraine is shown as not controlling any territory in Kursk, denoted by \"Ukrainian Advances in Russia,\" when checked by Metaculus on or after March 31, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36167, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742366192.225302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.638 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.827 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742366192.225302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.638 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.827 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.362, 0.638 ], "means": [ 0.5691760761430474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5137115617995502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2412801347501028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8691043161538585, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6684037924349998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5189393273876768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8175116140159993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -65.82021196281377, "peer_score": 30.655086638543047, "coverage": 0.9968508554167217, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968508554167217, "spot_peer_score": 32.59500442327391, "spot_baseline_score": -46.59383975788817, "baseline_archived_score": -65.82021196281377, "peer_archived_score": 30.655086638543047, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.59500442327391, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -46.59383975788817 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Russia says it is poised to drive Ukraine out of Kursk as Putin spurs on his generals](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-its-forces-will-soon-retake-all-kursk-ukrainian-troops-2025-03-13/)" }, { "id": 36166, "title": "Will Canada's petition to revoke Elon Musk's dual citizenship reach 1 million signatures before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-canadas-petition-to-revoke-elon-musks-dual-citizenship-reach-1-million-signatures-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.568108Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:16.513917Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35603, "title": "Will Canada's petition to revoke Elon Musk's dual citizenship reach 1 million signatures before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:27.568108Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:55:35.642655Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-19T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC: [Thousands of Canadians sign petition to revoke Musk's citizenship](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwydeppzggno)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [Petition e-5353](https://www.ourcommons.ca/petitions/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-5353) has greater than or equal to 1,000,000 signatures before April 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36166, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742358969.223259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.05800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742358969.223259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.05800000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.942, 0.05800000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.1087828068067386 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06910723970950539, 2.0452961203271487, 0.016860822722490777, 1.1741415012108696, 2.183064249173073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 1.6804533197753089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8270668988078552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0068807822025692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.26416309268669, "peer_score": 4.9604821806706045, "coverage": 0.9966110760966937, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966110760966937, "spot_peer_score": 5.689683933774601, "spot_baseline_score": 91.3798964950696, "baseline_archived_score": 91.26416309268669, "peer_archived_score": 4.9604821806706045, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.689683933774601, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 91.3798964950696 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC: [Thousands of Canadians sign petition to revoke Musk's citizenship](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwydeppzggno)" }, { "id": 36157, "title": "Will an Ivy League team make it to the Sweet Sixteen of the 2025 NCAA men's tournament (\"March Madness\")?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-ivy-league-team-make-it-to-the-sweet-sixteen-of-the-2025-ncaa-mens-tournament-march-madness", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.654186Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:05.989078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35594, "title": "Will an Ivy League team make it to the Sweet Sixteen of the 2025 NCAA men's tournament (\"March Madness\")?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.654186Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T15:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-30T15:46:11.581455Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For information on the current Ivy League contenders for March Madness see: [2025 Ivy League men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivy_League_men%27s_basketball_tournament)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an Ivy League team, for purposes of this question defined as Yale, Cornell, Princeton or Dartmouth, makes it to round 3 of the [2025 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_tournament)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742298357.568269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.1375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742298357.568269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.1375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8625, 0.1375 ], "means": [ 0.15166144468094633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 1.769983816001926, 0.07187793163698358, 0.0, 1.510288349310984, 0.8312562427695885, 0.0, 1.2830874457213213, 0.20559680035186842, 0.8540317483026665, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2077979290530423, 0.0, 1.7293159829323697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.573599912644088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3107369763284956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41773359555817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.6557821240697, "peer_score": 0.5948079983329038, "coverage": 0.996985356244776, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.996985356244776, "spot_peer_score": 2.9293603428262784, "spot_baseline_score": 78.65963618908069, "baseline_archived_score": 75.6557821240697, "peer_archived_score": 0.5948079983329038, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9293603428262784, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.65963618908069 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For information on the current Ivy League contenders for March Madness see: [2025 Ivy League men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivy_League_men%27s_basketball_tournament)" }, { "id": 36156, "title": "Will Walmart have a higher market cap than Tesla on March 29, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-walmart-have-a-higher-market-cap-than-tesla-on-march-29-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.621322Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:46.369669Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35593, "title": "Will Walmart have a higher market cap than Tesla on March 29, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.621322Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T11:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T11:23:41.008313Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Business Insider: [Tesla's latest decline could be one for the history books, JPMorgan analysts say](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-decline-jp-morgan-analyst-guidance-2025-3)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Walmart has a higher market capitalization than Tesla after the close of trading on March 29, 2025, according to [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36156, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742288587.724255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.316 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742288587.724255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.316 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5349610869849392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5689277011281757, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31353612158474525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8133591358081056, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.22636799372831803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242092176186102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7850164867881944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5494945937432972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.56495251922478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5617471527906828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.72526834405443, "peer_score": 7.038265429624042, "coverage": 0.9972132755650414, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9972132755650414, "spot_peer_score": -13.92411563073928, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -18.72526834405443, "peer_archived_score": 7.038265429624042, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -13.92411563073928, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Business Insider: [Tesla's latest decline could be one for the history books, JPMorgan analysts say](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-decline-jp-morgan-analyst-guidance-2025-3)" }, { "id": 36155, "title": "Will a Max show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-max-show-win-the-2025-glaad-media-award-for-outstanding-comedy-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.262278Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:58.097186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35592, "title": "Will a Max show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.262278Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T01:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T01:07:06.542734Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a TV show shown on Max wins Outstanding Comedy Series at the [36th GLAAD Media Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/36th_GLAAD_Media_Awards).", "fine_print": "Max's contenders are Hacks, The Sex Lives of College Girls, and Sort Of.", "post_id": 36155, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742280928.790367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742280928.790367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5273122763324085 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6982569025820777, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.23856338885684397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.939083545226274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015588628902947795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.106449600748056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.259186280372385, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.290864208375088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 8.405372375527486, "peer_score": 11.38624795937142, "coverage": 0.9973335518108474, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9973335518108474, "spot_peer_score": 13.618297366447855, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 8.405372375527486, "peer_archived_score": 11.38624795937142, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.618297366447855, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"" }, { "id": 36154, "title": "Will a Netflix show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding New Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-netflix-show-win-the-2025-glaad-media-award-for-outstanding-new-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.230344Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:01.076845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35591, "title": "Will a Netflix show win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding New Series?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.230344Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T01:05:04.530132Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a TV show shown on Netflix wins Outstanding New Series at the [36th GLAAD Media Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/36th_GLAAD_Media_Awards).", "fine_print": "Netflix's contenders are Black Doves, Kaos, and No Good Deed.", "post_id": 36154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742275531.988478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742275531.988478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.629, 0.371 ], "means": [ 0.3683197250365768 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2564634103625284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6604033563660272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9128004083649213, 0.028709986438327752, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.023192367940811438, 0.7126077026144955, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 1.198631667722546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49370788088703565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 1.1912269934399902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.019470601171937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.893509975999976, "peer_score": -3.723829573000632, "coverage": 0.9967187376485931, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9967187376485931, "spot_peer_score": -1.1375019627506346, "spot_baseline_score": 33.11319222172021, "baseline_archived_score": 30.893509975999976, "peer_archived_score": -3.723829573000632, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.1375019627506346, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.11319222172021 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"" }, { "id": 36153, "title": "Will Life is Strange: Double Exposure win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-life-is-strange-double-exposure-win-the-2025-glaad-media-award-for-outstanding-video-game", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.192474Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:52.156790Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35590, "title": "Will Life is Strange: Double Exposure win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.192474Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T01:00:00.962681Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-18T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Life is Strange: Double Exposure wins Outstanding Video Game at the [36th GLAAD Media Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/36th_GLAAD_Media_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36153, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742267776.242483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742267776.242483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36288155787905263 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2412801347501028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08419588105956852, 1.0462305217867123, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.3386586773479101, 1.0305077621359082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14889748717840853, 0.4746235444383931, 1.0, 0.8205901650008548, 0.0, 1.5633450979316017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5981709138232496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.573745976857293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 49.17812015776636, "peer_score": 0.8361087076823788, "coverage": 0.9968614880575073, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9968614880575073, "spot_peer_score": -1.8175955395314507, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 49.17812015776636, "peer_archived_score": 0.8361087076823788, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8175955395314507, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"" }, { "id": 36151, "title": "Will Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-paper-mario-the-thousand-year-door-win-the-2025-glaad-media-award-for-outstanding-video-game", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.115749Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:56.542898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35588, "title": "Will Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:26.115749Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-29T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T00:59:23.838937Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door wins Outstanding Video Game at the [36th GLAAD Media Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/36th_GLAAD_Media_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36151, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742244517.63023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.387 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742244517.63023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.387 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2774889467398179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5871501447426131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1046672416127237, 0.2761168848762875, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9664021967042151, 0.0, 1.0213501918628307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34149192914690363, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9123740207013507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08976124006212001, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 1.5084775619921196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0393271742028713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 49.20097068764626, "peer_score": 1.7843235911102207, "coverage": 0.99680058873362, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99680058873362, "spot_peer_score": 1.0177309849249472, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 49.20097068764626, "peer_archived_score": 1.7843235911102207, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0177309849249472, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"" }, { "id": 36150, "title": "Will Dragon Age: The Veilguard win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dragon-age-the-veilguard-win-the-2025-glaad-media-award-for-outstanding-video-game", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.748385Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:48.471621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35587, "title": "Will Dragon Age: The Veilguard win the 2025 GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Video Game?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.748385Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T18:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-30T18:55:28.116523Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Dragon Age: The Veilguard wins Outstanding Video Game at the [36th GLAAD Media Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/36th_GLAAD_Media_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742236445.577192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742236445.577192, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.324851295334911 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6895340108078722, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4756029997770408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 1.0, 0.7049053400575664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.26396123541669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7366634607102702, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2997048335431357, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -58.88392639764683, "peer_score": 19.64000560333845, "coverage": 0.9963965733183755, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9963965733183755, "spot_peer_score": 24.934373794198613, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -58.88392639764683, "peer_archived_score": 19.64000560333845, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.934373794198613, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLAAD_Media_Award), \"Honorees are selected by a process involving over 700 GLAAD Media Award voters and volunteers and are evaluated using four criteria: \"Fair, Accurate and Inclusive Representations\" of the LGBT community, \"Boldness and Originality\" of the project, significant \"Cultural Impact\" on mainstream culture, and \"Overall Quality\" of the project. Results are then certified by a \"Review Panel\" who determine the final list of recipients based on voting results and their own \"expert opinions\".\"" }, { "id": 36143, "title": "Will an Ivy League team make it to the second round of the 2025 NCAA men's tournament (\"March Madness\")?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-ivy-league-team-make-it-to-the-second-round-of-the-2025-ncaa-mens-tournament-march-madness", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.158572Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:10.225769Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-22T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35580, "title": "Will an Ivy League team make it to the second round of the 2025 NCAA men's tournament (\"March Madness\")?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.158572Z", "open_time": "2025-03-17T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T00:01:30.385502Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For information on the current Ivy League contenders for March Madness see: [2025 Ivy League men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivy_League_men%27s_basketball_tournament)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an Ivy League team, for purposes of this question defined as Yale, Cornell, Princeton or Dartmouth, makes it to round 2 of the [2025 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_tournament)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36143, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742183561.856485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.316 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742183561.856485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.316 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6839999999999999, 0.316 ], "means": [ 0.3039157593989882 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7041349056243957, 0.0, 0.3612289175022649, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 1.9652662352132846, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.200831202367651, 0.9195046140969454, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 1.7200200015081828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5694399905670787, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.91733136761139, "peer_score": 3.4420305446389827, "coverage": 0.9964826508363088, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964826508363088, "spot_peer_score": -0.2088370455920239, "spot_baseline_score": 45.206823022381066, "baseline_archived_score": 48.91733136761139, "peer_archived_score": 3.4420305446389827, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.2088370455920239, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.206823022381066 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For information on the current Ivy League contenders for March Madness see: [2025 Ivy League men's basketball tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivy_League_men%27s_basketball_tournament)" }, { "id": 36142, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sp-500-recover-half-its-drop-by-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.112397Z", "published_at": "2025-03-16T23:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:12.391859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T23:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-23T14:35:34.045143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35579, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T15:49:25.112397Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T23:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-08T00:14:16.668978Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between the launch of this question and the end of trading on April 7, 2025 (inclusive), the S\\&P 500 closes at \\$5,832.84 or higher, the midpoint between its highest close (\\$6,144.15) and recent dip (\\$5,521.52), according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).", "fine_print": "A resolution of **Yes** requires the \"Close\" price displayed by Yahoo Finance to be ≥\\$5,832.84. Intraday prices will not count. ", "post_id": 36142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742172310.473061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742172310.473061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43667065283326284 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3090532830601616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.167275759626026, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 1.0232490827982799, 0.9891696308650554, 0.0, 0.17565889918817926, 0.0, 0.5546174912139339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 1.1203321373478654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.597501689558082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.5000054589551, "peer_score": 0.7633033471084294, "coverage": 0.991385851667987, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.991385851667987, "spot_peer_score": 2.2394024759902433, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 26.5000054589551, "peer_archived_score": 0.7633033471084294, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.2394024759902433, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow." }, { "id": 36028, "title": "Will India surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "India larger economy than Germany in 2025?", "url_title": "India larger economy than Germany in 2025?", "slug": "india-larger-economy-than-germany-in-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-15T00:04:07.759697Z", "published_at": "2025-03-16T15:29:10.921398Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T00:51:49.618895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-16T15:29:10.921396Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35462, "title": "Will India surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-15T00:04:07.760106Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-22T15:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-22T15:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of [2024](https://cleartax.in/s/world-gdp-ranking-list), India is the **fifth-largest** economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. [India’s economy](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html) has been growing at a faster pace than [Germany’s](https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/germany/economic-forecast-germany_en), driven by a strong services sector, expanding industrial base, and rapid digital transformation.\n\nAccording to the **International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (**[**October 2024**](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/October/English/text.ashx)**)**:\n\n* **India's nominal GDP** in 2024 was estimated at **\\$3.94 trillion**\n* **Germany's nominal GDP** in 2024 was estimated at **\\$4.50 trillion**", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Financial Times, Reuters) report that India's nominal GDP has exceeded Germany's, making it the fourth-largest economy in the world.\n\nIf Germany remains ahead of India in nominal GDP rankings at the end of 2025, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf there are discrepancies among sources, preference will be given to the latest IMF data and then [World Bank data](https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects). If no updated figures are available before April 1, 2026, the question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36028, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753145498.936671, "end_time": 1754905166.687062, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753145498.936671, "end_time": 1754905166.687062, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.2005747689321424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5771962254806279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of [2024](https://cleartax.in/s/world-gdp-ranking-list), India is the **fifth-largest** economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. [India’s economy](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/asia-pacific/india-economic-outlook.html) has been growing at a faster pace than [Germany’s](https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-economies/germany/economic-forecast-germany_en), driven by a strong services sector, expanding industrial base, and rapid digital transformation.\n\nAccording to the **International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (**[**October 2024**](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/October/English/text.ashx)**)**:\n\n* **India's nominal GDP** in 2024 was estimated at **\\$3.94 trillion**\n* **Germany's nominal GDP** in 2024 was estimated at **\\$4.50 trillion**" } ] }
\n\nAccording](http://2023.%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnAccording){kind=link}